Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning.”

-- Benjamin Franklin

Tom Wilson and the Washington Capitals had a difficult choice before the start of the 2013-2014 season. Wilson, the 16th overall pick of the 2012 entry draft after two seasons with the Plymouth Whalers of the Ontario Hockey League, might have played another season with the Whalers, played a season or two with the Hershey Bears in the AHL as his introduction to the pro game, then graduated to the Capitals to start the 2015-2016 season as a 21-year old, physically mature and with maybe 150 games of professional experience in the regular season and playoffs in the AHL to mature his game.

Nice plan, but for a technicality. Wilson was not eligible to play for the Bears in 2013-2014. The NHL and the Canadian Hockey League, which covers all of the major junior leagues in Canada, have an agreement that CHL prospects must remain in junior hockey until they are 20 years of age or have played in four full seasons. Wilson, at 19 years of age, was not eligible to play for the Bears. It was juniors, for his fourth season with the Whalers, or the Caps. There was no third option.

Wilson might have been sent back to juniors, but he was an impressive physical player who scored 23 goals and 58 points in 48 games with the Whalers in 2012-2013. There was little left to prove there, and there might have been players looking to build a reputation and get some attention from scouts by trying to take Wilson down a peg or two. Wilson might have been viewed as too valuable a commodity to be exposed to that. The Caps decided to keep him in Washington, even if it meant playing fourth line minutes.

Fourth line minutes is precisely what Wilson got, playing all 82 games and averaging 7:56 a night. Only three forwards playing in at least 75 games skated fewer total minutes than Wilson (651): Tom Sestito (497 in 77 games), Brian McGrattan (511/76), and Patrick Bordeleau (565/82). None of them were first round draft picks.

Then again, Wilson’s experience might have been rare, but not unique. Joe Thornton, a number one overall pick in 1997, averaged just 8:05 in 55 games in his rookie season with Boston. Daniel Briere, a 24th overall pick in 1996, played 11 minutes a night in his first full season, then played an average of seven minutes a night the next season and ten the following season in the NHL while splitting time between the Phoenix Coyotes and the AHL.

All in all, the 2013-2014 rookie season for Wilson was far more experiential than productive. Even though he was one of only three rookies to appear in every regular season game (Nathan MacKinnon and Tyler Johnson were the others), he was tied for 20th among 26 rookies appearing in more than 25 games (the number rendering them ineligible for Calder Trophy qualification in future years) in goals scored (3), tied for 17th in assists (7), 19th in points, and 25th – next to last – in average time on ice. You could say that he outperformed his ice time, but it is not the strongest argument.

Fearless’ Take…

In the modern era (post-1967 expansion), Tom Wilson is one of only 18 rookies playing in at least 50 games who recorded at least ten points (he had 10) and at least 150 penalty minutes (he had 151). He is one of only eight players in that group who was a “plus” player (plus-1). And here is an odd fact. Wilson skated ten minutes or more in 16 games last season. The Caps were 8-4-4 in those contests. Now perhaps he was stapled to the bench in close third period games and got more third period time in wins, but still.

Cheerless’ Take…

Since the 2004-2005 lockout, 18 rookies have played in all 82-games of their rookie season. Wilson was 18th in goals (three, compared to the next lowest total – five – in 2007-2008 by Toby Enstrom…a defenseman), 18th in assists (10, compared to 20 in 2007-2008 for Torrey Mitchell in 17th place), 18th in points (10, half that of Mitchell), tied for 15th with three other players (that is, last) in power play goals (one), 18th in shots on goal (63, compared to 98 in 2007-2008 for Andrew Cogliano one rank higher), tied for 17th (again, last) in shooting percentage (4.8, with Enstrom), and 18th in minutes (651, compared to 1120 for Cogliano, the next lowest number). That’s certainly not all on Wilson, not by a long shot. The Caps spoon fed him ice time and used one of those baby spoons to boot.

The Big Question… Can Tom Wilson play a bigger role in 2014-2015?

Tom Wilson could have a long and productive career with the Capitals. He probably projects as a reliable third line option, perhaps even second line, on the right wing. At the moment, though, he suffers from there being a bit of a log jam on that side. Even with Alex Ovechkin being moved back to the left side, there are Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and possibly Eric Fehr ahead of him on the depth chart. Time might solve that problem, since Ward and Fehr are both on the final year of their current contracts. But for now, Wilson is still on the bottom rung of the ladder.

It begs the question of whether the Caps should make room for Wilson my moving one of those ahead him, either to another position (Fehr played center much of the time last season) or to another team. The difference this year, though, is that the AHL option is there for Wilson that was not there last season. There is a certain charm in that possibility in that it might provide an opportunity for him to develop a working chemistry with Andre Burakowsky, a prospect of considerable potential who faces an uphill climb to make the parent club out of training camp this fall and who might benefit from a full year playing a large role in Hershey.  To the extent one believes in the power of pairs, rather than lines (and I do), it might be the sort of postponed gratification on the way to three formidable pairs a few years down the line: Ovechkin/Backstrom, Kuznetsov/Vrana, and Burakovsky/Wilson.

In the end…

Tom Wilson’s first season in the NHL was characterized more by his willingness to do the dirty work of hockey.  Not only did he get fourth line minutes, he was a frequent pugilist.  His 14 fights was fifth in the league, and his 151 minutes in penalties tied for the 13th highest total for a first year player over the previous 20 seasons.  None of the other 13 players were first round draft picks. 

That might be considered part of the apprenticeship Wilson is performing.  Now, it is time to hone his other skills, those within the rules.  To answer “The Big Question,” that will mean he could very well play a larger role, once he recovers from the ankle injury he suffered over the summer.  The thing is, that role might very well be played in Hershey.

Projection: 18 games, 3-4-7, plus-1

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Joel Ward

Joel Ward

“The reward of a thing well done is having done it.”

-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

Last season Joel Ward set career highs in games played (82), goals (24), assists (25), points (49), power play goals (6), power play assists (4), shooting percentage (18.0 percent), and tied personal bests in shorthanded goals (2) and game-winning goals (4). He was in rare company, too. Of all the players in the league who scored 25 or fewer goals, three had as many as six power play goals, four game winners, and two shorthanded goals: Antoine Vermette, Adam Henrique, and Ward.

It was an especially sweet season for Ward who, in the eyes of some, might have been seen to struggle in his first two seasons in Washington after signing a four-year, $12 million contract as an unrestricted free agent in July 2011.  His 24 goals almost doubled his output with the Caps over his first two seasons (14) and equaled his output over his previous three seasons, including his last year with the Nashville Predators.  His 25 assists surpassed his combined output over his previous two years with the Caps (24), as did his 49 points (38).

Ward recorded the first hat trick of his career last season, potting three goals in a 7-0 rout of the Philadelphia Flyers on November 1st.  He had two other three-point games, two goals and an assist in a 6-5 overtime win over the Detroit Red Wings on February 2nd, and a goal and two assists in a 5-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on April 10th.

As one might expect, Ward was most effective in winning efforts, going 16-14-30 in the Caps’ 38 wins.  However, his 9-10-19 scoring line in the Caps’ 44 regulation and extra time losses was respectable, given that he did not play on a scoring line.  The most telling difference between his performance in wins and losses was that he scored five of his six power play goals in wins.

Fearless’ Take…

The one thing that held back Ward in his two seasons with the Caps was a drop-off in production after good starts.  In his first two seasons, combined, Ward posted a scoring line of 10-11-21, plus-14 in his first 20 games (40 overall), a per-82 game pace of 21-23-44, plus-29.  However, after that, in 72 games covering those two years Ward was 4-13-17, plus 5, a per-82 game pace of 5-15-20, plus-6.  Compare that to 2013-2014.  In his first 20 games he was effective again, going 9-4-13, minus-1, a per-82 game pace of 37-16-53, minus-4.  In his last 62 games, though, he was 15-21-36, plus-8, a per-82 game pace of 20-28-48, plus-11.  It was his ability to avoid that steep drop-off after his first 20 games that enabled him to record a career year on offense.

Cheerless’ Take…

Ward is going to be 34 years old in December, and he plays a pretty rugged style of hockey.  He has been durable, playing in almost 93 percent of the games scheduled over his six full seasons in the league. Still, he’s getting to that point where the combination of durability and performance will be something to watch.  There are a fair number of forwards since the 2004-2005 lockout who have played in at least 75 games and scored at least 15 goals after reaching the age of 34 (54 in fact), but not many do it more than once (28 forwards).  Of course, he is in the last year of his contract, too, so he only has to do it once.

The Big Question… Can Joel Ward match, or at least come close to his career numbers of last season?

The easy thinking here is that Ward will be playing for a coach with whom he has experience, and he will be working in a system that either he has grown comfortable with or that has learned to accommodate his skills (at least on the power play).  One might expect that he will play a role similar to the one he played last season, right wing on the third line at even strength and in the middle of the power play when Troy Brouwer is not manning that post.

That Ward could match or approach those career bests he set last season is certainly possible.  It just might not be the way to bet.  Why?  His even strength goal total (16) was 33 percent higher than his previous best (12 in 2008-2009).  His even strength assist total (21) almost matched that of the previous two seasons combined (22).  He finished seventh in shooting percentage (18.0 percent) among 287 qualifying forwards, another career best that is substantially higher than his career mark before last season (9.5 percent).  That is quite a spike in performance.  Sustainable?  We will see.

Then there is the consistency issue.  Was last year’s production pace after his first 20 games a one-off, or is it a sign of later career dependability in his output?

In the end…

Joel Ward is in a contract year that could make him an attractive signing for the second time in his career.  In 2010-2011 he had a good, if unspectacular regular season (10-19-29, minus-1 in 80 games).  It was his playoff performance that year that stood out (7-6-13 in 12 games).  It earned him a shot at a lucrative contract in unrestricted free agency that he received from the Capitals.  He might need something closer to the regular season performance he had last season, one in which he skated on what was often the best forward line the Caps had, or a big post-season such as the one he had in his last season in Nashville to catch the eye of other teams or get consideration from the Capitals to tender an offer. 

The pieces are in place for Ward to do just that, but there are issues, too, or at least things to look for as the season unfolds for him.  Having done a thing well last season, if he does it as well or nearly as well this season he will be rewarded.

Projection: 80 games, 17-22-39, plus-7

Photo: Jared Wickerham/Getty Images North America

The Washington Capitals Winter Classic Jersey...It's Blue, It's White, and it's...uh...

Since the Washington Capitals' unveiled their Winter Classic jersey on Tuesday, there has been little agreement on its merits as a hockey fashion statement.  There also seems to be little agreement on just what the dominant color is.  So far...

• Red
• Deep Red
• Maroon
• Oxblood
• Bordeaux
• Burgundy
• Merlot (no Syrah or Malbec yet, but we're hopeful...and thirsty)
• Vintage Red
• Brick Red
• Carmine
• Crimson
• USC Red
• Barn Red

Can we pick one and settle on that?  Really...just what color is it?

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Aaron Volpatti

Aaron Volpatti

“Baseball is a red-blooded sport for red-blooded men. It's no pink tea, and mollycoddles had better stay out. It's a struggle for supremacy, a survival of the fittest.”

-- Ty Cobb

What Ty Cobb said about baseball a century ago can be said for hockey today.  While there is a privileged place at the table for the player of skill and imagination, there is also a place for the player who struggles and survives.

This explains how it is that a player with fewer than ten career points in more than 100 career games can have a place in the lineup for a National Hockey League team.  It explains the Washington Capitals’ Aaron Volpatti.

Aaron Volpatti has played in parts of four NHL seasons, never appearing in more than half his team’s games in any of them.  He appeared in precisely that many games – 41 of 82 – for the Capitals last season.  It was arguably his best season in his still young career.  In addition to setting his career high in games played, he set a career high in goals scored.  OK, so two goals is a modest career best, but they all count, and you have to crawl before you can walk, let alone run.

What makes Volpatti’s presence in the league, not to mention his modest progress, more interesting is the fact that it was not as if he was a hot shot amateur who had to re-tool his game for the NHL.  He had just 13 goals in 137 games over three seasons with the Vernon Vipers of the BCHL, followed by 32 goals in 123 games over four years at Brown University (17 of those goals coming in his senior season).  After signing as a free agent with the Vancouver Canucks following his senior year at Brown, he played in 61 games over two seasons with the Manitoba Moose and scored just three goals. Nine amateur seasons, 321 games, 48 goals, more than a third of those in one season.  He was not coming into the NHL as a sniper.

What he was, though, was a scrapper.  There were 279 penalty minutes in 137 games with the Vipers, 236 penalty minutes in 123 games with Brown, then 91 penalty minutes in 61 games in the AHL.  It didn't stop in Vancouver.  In two-plus seasons with the Canucks, Volpatti managed only three goals in 54 games, but he had 81 penalty minutes, 55 of those minutes coming in 11 fights.  This was a player who, when traded to the Caps in March 2013, took a fighting major on the fourth shift of his first game with the club.   Volpatti was not, and almost certainly will not, make his living in the NHL be being an offensive threat.  He has had to, and almost certainly will have to, scrap for every minute of ice time he gets.

Fearless’ Take…

The Caps were 22-12-7 in games in which Volpatti played last season, 16-18-7 in those he did not. In 2012-2013 the Caps were 12-3-2 in games in which he appeared after arriving in trade from Vancouver. A 34-15-9 record when he dresses?  That’s a 48-21-13 pace per 82 games (109 points). Some things are hard to explain.

Cheerless’ Take…

So, in your world the sun rises because the rooster crows? In those 58 games Volpatti had three points and was a minus-5 while averaging less than eight minutes of ice time.

The Big Question… Is there a roster spot in his future?

There could be something of a log jam on the fourth line for the Capitals, and Volpatti would appear to be in the mix for it. Jay Beagle, Chris Brown, Tim Kennedy, Michael Latta, Casey Wellman, and Volpatti. It could be quite a competition. On the other hand, no one stands out in any particular way. It presents an opportunity for Volpatti, since he and Kennedy are the left wingers by position in that mix.

But here is the steep climb Volpatti has.  Over the last four seasons, only three forwards have appeared in as many or more games than Volpatti (112) and have as many or fewer points (7): John Scott (165 games/3 points), Colton Orr (149/7), and Volpatti.  Even on a fourth line, the Caps need more production.

In the end…

The Caps are not awash in options at left wing on the fourth line, which might be the best thing that can be said about Aaron Volpatti’s chances of being in the opening night lineup.  After four years and 100-plus games, it does not seem likely that he is going to provide much of a contribution other than a certain brand of feistiness.  That sort of thing has its place to keep things honest on the ice, but even there, fourth liners do not generally get assignments that might pit them against higher lines on which there might be players who need to be reined in. 

There is going to be a competition to see just who and in what combinations dresses for the Caps on the fourth line on a night-in, night-out basis.  Volpatti will be in that mix, and not being a “mollycoddle” by any means, he will be battling for that spot.

Projection: 17 games, 1-1-2, -1

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“All our sweetest hours fly fastest.”

-- Virgil

It has now been more than ten years since Alex Ovechkin walked to the stage and pulled on a Washington Capitals jersey for the first time as the number one overall pick of the 2004 entry draft.  Nine NHL seasons (six reaching the post-season), eight world championship tournaments, two Olympic tournaments, and the better part of a season in the KHL during the 2012-2013 NHL lockout.  From charismatic pitch man who sold everything from cars, to TV networks, to candy bars, to banks, to hockey equipment; to perhaps the most casually dismissed elite goal scorer, certainly of this era and perhaps in the history of the NHL.  It certainly has not been a boring ten years watching the career of Alex Ovechkin unfold.

But here we are, ten years into what almost certainly will be the most accomplished career in the history of the Washington Capitals, Ovechkin having won just about every regular season individual honor the NHL awards, and both he and his fans are still waiting for that elusive team accomplishment, a Stanley Cup.

Coming off his fifth 50-goal season in 2013-2014, tied for sixth all time in number of such seasons, Ovechkin received far more press for posting a minus-35 (and yes, he is the only player in league history to record at least 50 goals and a minus-35 or worse).  Still, he won his fourth Maurice Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer.  He was named to the second team NHL all-star team, the eighth time in nine seasons he was named to the first or second team (not including being named to both first and second teams in 2012-2013 at right and left wings).  For the fourth time in his career he recorded at least ten game-winning goals (10, second in the league last season). 

Then there was the power play.  His 24 power play goals led the league, was the third time he recorded at least 20 man advantage goals, and were the most in the NHL since Teemu Selanne had 25 in the 2006-2007 season.  In the modern era (post-1967 expansion), only five players have more 20-power play goal seasons than the three turned in by Ovechkin to date: Brett Hull (5), Mike Bossy (4), Phil Esposito (4), Tim Kerr (4), and Luc Robitaille (4).

Fearless’ Take…

One of the hallmarks of Alex Ovechkin’s career to date has been his consistency.  With respect to Ovechkin’s goal scoring, here is one way to look at that. Only three times last season did Ovechkin go more than two consecutive games without a goal.  His 51 goals were scored over 40 games, those 40 games with at least one goal being more than half the games in which he played (78).  He had points in 48 of the 78 games in which he played.

He remains the straw that stirs the drink.  In 36 wins in which he played, Ovechkin had 35 goals (35-19-54).  He had 16 of his 24 power play goals in those 36 wins, scoring power play goals in 13 of those wins.  He had 23 percent of the total goals scored by the Caps last season (51 of 225) but more than a third of the game-winning goals for the team (10 of 28).

Ovechkin was recently described as “one of the least feared 50 goal scorers in the history of the game.”  The breathless hyperbole aside, since he entered the league in 2005-2006 he has more than 100 more goals (422) than the next highest goal scorer over that period (Jarome Iginla: 310). He has five of the 18 50-goal seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout.  Only Sidney Crosby (5) has more 100-point seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout (4), and while the last of those was in 2009-2010, consider that since then he has been a bit hamstrung by coaches who were rookies behind an NHL bench when they took over (Dale Hunter, Adam Oates) and a season (2012-2013) half lost to another lockout. 

Cheerless’ Take…

Yeah, cuz, about all those goals and points scored in wins.  Thirty-five goals, 54 points, and a plus-3?  He was a minus player in ten of those 36 wins in which he played.  In 42 regulation and extra time losses he was minus-38 and was a minus player in 26 of those games.

While plus-minus is a statistic of limited use to explain individual performance, it is also true that only 12 of 435 forwards playing in at least 20 games last season were on ice for more goals per 60 minutes at5-on-5 than Ovechkin.  And, he had the 20^th worst plus/minus per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in that group of forwards.  Only five forwards were on ice for more goals against at 5-on-5 than Ovechkin.  While his linemates bear a certain amount of responsibility for that kind of performance, no Capital forward ranked lower than Ovechkin in any of those categories.

That whole plus-minus thing was a particular problem against Eastern Conference teams that reached the playoffs.  In 28 games against those eight teams Ovechkin had 18 goals, an impressive number.  He was also a minus-18, a less impressive one.

The Big Question… Is that all there is?

The consensus question that the hockey media thinks most important with respect to Ovechkin is whether he and new head coach Barry Trotz can read from the same page.  The implication is that he and Trotz’ predecessors either did not read from that same page or that there was some sort of antagonistic relationship between Ovechkin and those coaches.

That seems to be a simple, and simplistic, conclusion.  Except for one in-game comment about a coaching decision, it is hard to find much in the way of commentary from Ovechkin that undermined his coaches’ authority or that signaled an antagonism toward those coaches’ approach to the game.  One can argue about results – the Caps have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs in the Ovechkin era – but the term ”coach killer” (a term that generates no lack of hits in a web search) is reflexive, not the product of analysis.

It is fair to ask what Ovechkin has done to improve and round out his game over nine seasons in the NHL.  He came into the league as a prolific goal scorer, and he remains one of the most productive goals scorers in the game. And, if you are going to have one skill, it would be hard to think of another one you would rather a player have.  However, if you look at the rest of his game you wonder what it is that has improved over the course of his career.

This is where Barry Trotz can make a difference, if any coach can.  Ovechkin has played for four coaches, all of them in their first NHL coaching positions.  None had the ability (and in a couple of cases, showed little inclination) to develop those other skills that would make Ovechkin a more dangerous all-around player.  Trotz has 15 seasons on coaching experience at the NHL level.  He has coached a wide variety of players at that level in terms of style, temperament, and talent.  This is a type of coach Ovechkin has not had in his career.

It is not all on the coach, though.  Ovechkin just turned 29 and is in the chronological prime of his career.  That, and his nine years of experience, implies a certain responsibility on his part to take the initiative to improve and bring out other aspects of his game.  It has not yet been enough in terms of team success that he be primarily (or exclusively, in the opinion of some) a goal scorer.  Even if he remains the most productive goal scorer of his generation, if that is all there is it would seem unlikely that the Capitals will be any more successful going forward in Ovechkin’s career than they have been over its first nine seasons.

In the end…

The whole plus-minus thing with respect to Ovechkin’s game is a red herring.  This is a player who was a plus-82 over his first eight seasons.  The minus-35, while historic, was a convenient hook on which a lot of hockey media could hang their general disdain for Ovechkin’s style on and off the ice.  On the other hand, he is the captain, he is the straw that stirs the drink, and the Caps are not likely to be successful on any level unless he is happy and productive. 

In 2014-2015 he is in a situation in which he has not found himself in his career, playing for a coach with a long NHL resume.  The team around him is more balanced than it has been in recent memory, with a deeper defense than the club has known in at least a decade.  It is not all on him to score goals.  That makes it an opportunity for Ovechkin to develop more of his game.  Better late than never, because as Virgil said, “All our sweetest hours fly fastest.”

Projection: 80 games, 51-37-88, plus-4

Photo: James Guillory-USA Today

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Michael Latta

Michael Latta

“Nature always wears the colors of the spirit.”

-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

At the risk of taking Emerson a bit too literally, it is probably fitting that Michael Latta wears red in his occupation as a hockey player.  He was not the headline player in the trade that sent Filip Forsberg to Nashville for Martin Erat, but he is the player coming from Nashville who remains with the club.

The role he seems likely to play with the Caps is the epitome of the “energy player.”  To the extent he plays, it will be confined almost entirely to fourth line minutes.  He will agitate, disrupt, annoy, aggravate, and exasperate (434 penalty minutes in 183 career regular season AHL games).  He will provoke (37 fights in those 183 career regular season AHL games).

Yes, red seems to be an appropriate color to wear as a reflection of his spirit.

That said, the extent to which he passes Jay Beagle on the depth chart as fourth line center is going to hinge at least as much on his performance numbers.  Twice he has posted 14-goal seasons in the AHL, both times doing so in fewer than 55 games.  Then again, Jay Beagle had 19 and 16 goal seasons with Hershey with game totals in each season in the mid 60’s.

Fearless’ Take…

The Caps were 9-6-2 in the 17 games in which Latta played last year.  Records like that aren’t attributable to the difference making capabilities of a fourth line center, but he was on ice for only five goals against in those 17 games, too, four at even strength.  He was 52.2 percent on draws.  He was charged with just two giveaways in 131 minutes of ice time.  He committed only one minor penalty.  He was not what you would call a liability out there.

Cheerless’ Take…

Twice in 17 games he played more than 10 minutes.  He averaged less than eight minutes a game.  The Caps were 5-4-2 in games in which he played over seven minutes.  There is just so much a guy playing that little ice time can do to influence an outcome for the better.

The Big Question… Is Michael Latta a diamond in the rough?

Michael Latta is only 23 years old as he heads into the upcoming season, so it is still difficult to project just what his upside is.  Just keep in mind that he was taken in the 2009 draft ahead of Cody Eakin (72^nd overall; Eakin was taken 85^th), and Caps fans probably still remember Eakin, a prospect traded with a draft pick for Mike Ribeiro back in June 2012.  We cannot say with much conviction that Latta is going to become the scoring forward that appears to be slotted for in Dallas, but he might have more upside than Jay Beagle, which is not to denigrate Beagle.  Latta just has not yet had much playing time, and he seems likely to make a battle out of the fourth line center position.

In the end…

To us, Michael Latta impresses us in his limited exposure to date with the Caps as a stockier version of former Capitals forward Matt Bradley.  He does not seem to be the sort to contribute a lot at the offensive end, but he might pot the occasional goal.  He plays at  a high energy level.  He is not shy about settling matters on the ice on his own (two fights in 17 games with the Caps, 11 in 52 games at Hershey last season).  He has not yet revealed any particular liabilities on defense, although 17 games is not much to go on in that regard.

Michael Latta is the last remnant of the Forsberg-Erat trade and the end of a line in the legacy of the selection of Scott Stevens in the 1982 draft (the “Brendan Witt/Filip Forsberg” line in this chart).  Latta represents the last active line in that legacy.  Caps fans will be hoping it does not end for a while yet.

Projection:  26 games, 1-5-6, even

Photo: Patrick McDermott/NHLI via Getty Images

Washington Capitals Training Camp 2014 -- Day One

Washington Capitals Training Camp 2014 got underway yesterday at Kettler Capitals Iceplex, and Day One was the kind of affair that could not be held to just one squad or just a single rink.  Three squads – Blue, White, and Red in that order – on both the Arlington and Capitals rinks made for a busy day for new head coach Barry Trotz, his staff, and the 60-odd players invited to participate.

Before Team Blue kicked off the first session at 9:30, however, there was goaltenders coach Mitch Korn on the ice with Braden Holtby and Pheonix Copley going through some drills.  Korn started working with Holtby, the first player on the ice for this year’s camp, going through what looked like puck handling drills that focused on the goalie’s footwork and body positioning when moving the puck along either side. 

Copley joined in for some work in moving back and forth, up and down in the crease.  Then it was time for the ol’ medicine ball, one of many props that Korn uses for effect and to keep things interesting.  There were two drills involving this prop.  First, the goalies held the ball to their chest while maneuvering back and forth across the crease.  Then, while clutching the medicine ball to their chest, Holtby and Copley started at the goal line at one wall, then pushed off their skate down the length of the goal line to the opposite wall.  We were sore just watching them.

As this drill was underway, the skaters took the ice, and if there was a word to describe them as a group, it would be “business like.”  There wasn’t a smile among them, no chatting as they skated, no joking.  If you are looking for good (if trivial) signs about this team, there’s one.  They were down to business from the first blow of the whistle from Trotz.

Trotz wasted no time in pitting players against one another.  Using various combinations – one on one, two on two, and a series of odd man combinations – he had the players going against one another in long skate confrontations and in tight space situations starting in the faceoff circles.  Except for the occasional player sidling up to a coach for a question, the only sounds you heard on the ice were Trotz’ gravelly shouts and what seems to be a signature effect, his banging his stick on the ice to get players to step up the pace and hustle back into line after finishing a rush.

Because you might be wondering, for what it’s worth, watching Brooks Laich do end-to-end skates in the first half of the morning session, he looked pretty smooth out there.

Team Blue spent 45 minutes on the Arlington Rink before heading across the hall to the Capitals rink to complete their session, a series of end to end long skates to test endurance.  There were a few noteworthy things in that session.  Jay Beagle was consistently ahead of his group from end to end.  Alex Ovechkin was, well… he was not.  Dmitry Orlov and Aaron Volpatti wore the yellow (no contact) jerseys in doing the endurance skates.

Then there was Marcus Johansson.  We did not see what happened, but we did see him face down on the ice in front of the players’ bench, then get up to considerable distress to take his place on the bench.  After some limping around and being bent over the back of the bench, he headed off to the locker room.

Team White was next up on the Arlington Rink at the 11 o’clock hour.  Trotz took the group through the same drills, emphasizing player-versus-player contact and a fast pace.  And, there was the stick banging.  Just like the group the preceded them, there was not much player-player chattering on the ice.  Trotz appears to run a very disciplined, very ordered ship.  Some other things we took note of in Day One (with pictures).

-- A quiet moment between teacher and pupil before the fun begins…

-- The captain was the first skater on deck for the morning session

-- Then there were the footwork drills for the goalies...

...and the medicine ball drills.

 Leaving the one-on-one drills to the players.

Not Sidney Crosby (save it for the fantasy piece, Peerless).  It's Liam O'Brien, although he is from Nova Scotia, and he did once play for Rimouski.

More one-on-one

New Guy...

Johansson is down.  He looked to be in considerable distress once he got to the bench.

Justin Peters in a new setting.

Chris Brown lets fly.

A familiar...number.

Get used to it, Caps fans.  That stick banging is going to be in your dreams for a while.

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich

An old man passed me on the street today;

I thought I knew him but I couldn't say.

I stopped to think if I could place his frame.

When he tipped his hat I knew his name.

Hello old friend,

It's really good to see you once again.

Hello old friend,

It's really good to see you once again.

-- Eric Clapton

It only seems like forever since Brooks Laich played a full season in the NHL, and he is hardly an old man, but he is 15^th on the all-time list of games played in Washington Capitals franchise history (616), second among active players on the club to Alex Ovechkin (679).  He would be the active leader in games played had he not missed 70 of 130 games over the past two seasons.

And that is the issue for this season.  Despite repeated comments over time that were variations on a “feeling good” theme, there is the fact that Laich has not played a full season of NHL hockey since 2011-2012.

Last season Laich managed 51 games of action, but it was a matter of skating on one and a half legs.  That was the product of lingering groin problems that seemed to stem from an injury he sustained while playing in Switzerland during the 2012 NHL lockout.  That he led the team in shorthanded ice time per game, situations that might put even greater stress on a wonky groin, and added another 1:20 per game on the power play speaks to his grit and determination, or his stubbornness over the extent of his injury, depending on your point of view.

His performance level since his injury is down form that of his first seven full seasons with the Caps.  Over those first seven seasons, Laich’s scoring line per 82 games was 17-24-41.  In 60 games over two seasons since he was injured it is 14-16-31, perhaps not as bad as one might have expected.  When one accounts for the fact that it was his power play production that was down substantially, from 6-6-12 per 82 games in his first seven full seasons to 2-5-7 per 82 games over the last two seasons, it further suggests a level of grit (or stubbornness) that permitted him to function at something approaching a career level, at least offensively, at even strength.

Fearless’ Take…

In 2011-2012, the last healthy season Brooks Laich had, he was one of 12 forwards in the NHL playing in at least 50 games who had at least 13 minutes of even strength ice time a game, and at least two minutes of both power play and shorthanded ice time a game.  That speaks to the versatility Laich possesses and that can be valuable to this team in 2014-2015. 

Given the presence of Troy Brouwer and Joel Ward (both right-handed shots) in the middle of the power play, it seems unlikely that the left-handed shooting Laich would get that kind of man advantage ice time, but this is a team that needs all the help it can get killing penalties.  Among forwards playing in at least 50 games in 2011-2012 Laich ranked 20^th in 4-on-5 ice time per 60 minutes.

It might be at even strength, though, where Laich’s presence might be felt most.  Looking back again at that last healthy season, Laich had the second lowest share of offensive zone starts among 11 Caps forwards playing in at least 50 games (43.1 percent).  However, he has a higher share of offensive zone finishes, so he as least moved the tilt a little less in the defensive zone direction, and his team rank in goals-against/on ice per 60 minutes outperformed his offensive zone start shares, implying a certain effectiveness in dealing with tough geography on the ice.

Cheerless’ Take…

That all sounds real nice, Fearless, but he’s 31 years old, has more than 650 games of regular season and playoff experience, and has tried to skate through an injury that still took 70 of 130 games the last two seasons off his resume.  Is it reasonable to think, even if he is anything close to healthy, for him to return to that 2011-2012 version?   Maybe by winter or spring, but in October?

And, it’s a good thing he is versatile, because there is no position that is marked in pen with his name on it.  He could be the first line left wing.  He could be the second line left wing.  He could be the second line or third line center.

Fearless kept comparing Laich to his last healthy season in 2011-2012.  Fine, but that year was two years removed from the last of his career best three years, from 2007-2008 through 2009-2010, when he scored 69 goals and only missed four games.  Four seasons have passed since then.  Any chance he returns to that level of production?

The Big Question… Where will Brooks Laich play?

It is not an urgent question in October, but it might be nice if Brooks Laich had a position to call his own at some point this season.  For one thing, it would signal his being healthy in fact and not just in press releases.  For another it would signal stability across the rest of the forward lines.  The one place where Laich might be the first option is at third line center.  With him in this position, it is an indicator that the Evgeny Kuznetsov experiment at second line center is working.  One might envision such a lineup as having Alex Ovechkin on the left side, Nicklas Backstrom in the middle, and perhaps Eric Fehr on the right side of the top line.  Kuznetsov might be centering Marcus Johansson on the left and Troy Brouwer on the right on the second line.  Laich would be centering Jason Chimera on his left and Joel Ward on his right on the third line.  If Laich is moving around the forward lines, it could be a sign that other things are not working as well as hoped.

In the end…

Although Brooks Laich might feel like he’s five-years old again, he is one of the core players on whom the Caps will be depending for a solid year to get them back into the post-season.  On a team that struggled in 5-on-5 play and penalty killing, Laich will be expected to provide the means to improve in those areas.  It is not the youthful effervescence on which the Capitals will be relying, but the experience earned as the longest tenured Capital in continuous service.  His window, like that of the Caps, is still open a bit.

Projection: 72 games, 14-17-31, plus-2

Photo: Rob Grabowski-USA Today Sports

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

“Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.”

-- Steven Wright

Foodies will probably recognize the term “amuse-bouche.”  A French term that can be translated, “to entertain the mouth,” they are generally bite-sized representations of the chef’s craft and skill, an indicator of what is to come in your meal.  We have no idea what how the term translates into Russian, but late last season Evgeny Kuznetsov provided a bite-sized version of what might be in store for 2014-2015.

In 17 games Kuznetsov went 3-6-9 (a 43 point pace, albeit in a small population of games) and had a couple of highlight reel moments.  Like his first NHL goal…

Or his first turn in the Gimmick…

Or his fake slap shot/pass to Tom Wilson…

But before we help young Mr. Kuznetsov clear some space on the mantel for a Calder Trophy as 2014-2015 rookie of the year, let’s all take a step back, take a deep breath, and remember that while he was 2-5-7 in his first nine games, he had only two points in his last eight games.

Then there is the matter of where he will play.  Kuznetsov spent those 17 games at the end of last season at left wing.  He is likely to start training camp auditioning for a new role: second line center, the persistent hole in the Capitals’ lineup.  If he takes to the position, he could be the answer for the next decade.  However, if he does not, it could mean a revolving door at that position once more.

Fearless’ Take…

In the 39-season history of the Washington Capitals, only 17 first year players playing in at least 15 games had more points-per-game than Evgeny Kuznetsov had last season (0.53).  Last year’s 43-point pace, even if it was in a small population of games, was one that would have had him fourth overall in rookie scoring over a full season.  Kuznetsov, who is still a rookie for purposes of the upcoming season, has some built in advantages in terms of hitting the ground running in October.  He spent four seasons with Traktor Chelyabinsk in the KHL, honing his game against professionals in preparation for his move to the NHL.  He also has significant international tournament experience – two world under-18 tournaments, three world junior tournaments, and three world championship tournaments. He is a rookie for NHL purposes, but perhaps not a "rookie" in terms of his experience, even if he is only 22 years old.

Cheerless’ Take…

Yeah, about that whole second line center thing.  It’s one thing to be a center moving to the wing, even it is a temporary thing – Nicklas Backstrom started his career with the Caps on the wing, Nathan MacKinnon spent a lot of time at right wing last season in Colorado.  Both are natural centers (yeah, and both were younger than Kuznetsov, too).  It is another thing for a player who has not played the position on a scoring line in the NHL to be put into that position as a rookie, even one with his international experience at the position.  It might be that the best to be said here is that the team was patient enough with him in the position to allow him to grow into it and be a lot better at it in March than he might be in October.

The Big Question… What would a reasonable rookie season look like for Kuznetsov?

Those nine points in 17 games and the occasional highlight reel play might have some Caps fans entertaining thought of a big rookie season for Kuznetsov.  Maybe 60 points, maybe even 70.  OK, let’s take a minute here.  Alex Ovechkin recorded 106 points as a rookie.  That’s the franchise record, and the sun will go dark before it’s broken.  Next on the list is Nicklas Backstrom, who had 69 points in 2007-2008.  Chris Valentine in 1981-1982 and Bengt Gustaffson in 1979-1980 are the next centers on the list with 67 and 60 points, respectively, in their rookie seasons, but that was a different era.

Even if one looks at centers since the 2005-2006 lockout overall, there is Sidney Crosby at 102 points in 2005-2006 and then a long way to Paul Stastny in Colorado in 2006-2007 (78 points).  Only five rookie centers since the 2004-2005 lockout have had 60 points, only 10 with more than 50, and some of those players were not full time centers in their rookie season.  

Given who his linemates might be, Troy Brouwer on the right side and any of Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, or possibly even Eric Fehr or Jason Chimera on the other side, anything north of, say, 55 points would look like a pipe dream.  But he has the skill and the experience (more so than most “rookies”) to perhaps challenge that 55-point level.

In the end…

We have seen Evgeny Kuznetsov entertain with a fair number of highlight plays in his young career to date.  Over an 82-game season the object, given his role as a scoring line center, is going to be one of providing consistent production more than bursts of flair and helping make those around him better.  Then there is the matter of his defensive responsibilities.  He will not have the same lock-down role that a checking line center might have, but he can’t be caught cheating so much into the offensive end that his line becomes a defensive liability, either. 

It is going to be a lot for Kuznetsov to assimilate in this role, even if he does have more than 200 regular season and playoff games of KHL experience and 37 games of world championship and world junior championship tournament experience.  Now he gets to add to his NHL experience, and just in time, because how quickly he fills his new role will be one of the plot twists to pay attention to as the Caps look to return to the post-season.

Projection: 75 games, 18-32-50, even

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Forwards: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson

“Your big opportunity may be right where you are now.”

-- Napoleon Hill

Marcus Johansson was drafted by the Washington Capitals in 2009 as a center.  It was that position which he played in his early career with the club.  He was not, it seemed, the answer to a perennial problem – who would be the team’s second line center – and he was moved to left wing on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. 

The move was not without its painful moments.  Johansson suffered a concussion in a collision with Ovechkin in a 2012 training camp session, an injury that would eventually cost Johansson 12 games in the regular season.  Since returning to the lineup after that concussion Johansson is 13-52-65 in 106 games over two seasons, a 10-40-50 scoring pace per 82 games, almost exclusively as a left winger.

That might make for an argument to keep Johansson at left wing, but the roster is in flux with a new head coach – Barry Trotz – calling the shots.  Ovechkin might be returned to the left side on the top line.  That move would ripple through the rest of the lineup with more options facing Johansson than perhaps any other player.  Johansson could be moved to the left side of the second line.  He could play in the middle of the second line, depending on how the Evgeny Kuznetsov experiment at center works.  He could be dropped to the middle of the third line where he would assume the duties previously fulfilled by Eric Fehr, a natural right winger.  And, if Trotz’ intention that Ovechkin develops to play both sides plays out,  Johansson could find himself back on the left side of the top.

Fearless’ Take…

Marcus Johansson is one of five players in his 2010 rookie class with at least 40 career goals, at least 90 career assists, and at least 130 career points (Derek Stepan, Tyler Seguin, Jordan Eberle, and Taylor Hall are the others).  Last season he was 5-27-32 in 37 wins, recording points in 23 of those wins.  As impressive as, say, Nicklas Backstrom (14-45-59 in 38 wins, points in 32 of them)?  No, but it isn’t a points pace far off a pace of a Daniel Sedin (13-18-31 in 32 wins).

Then there are the penalties.  The seemingly utter lack of them.  Over the last four seasons, among all skaters playing in at least 175 games, no player has logged fewer penalty minutes than Johansson (26).  Last season Johansson was sent off twice for minor penalties.  Not twice in one game, twice all season.  Two minors (high-sticking and hooking, for the record), that’s it.  Little wonder he finished sixth in the voting for the Lady Byng Trophy (including a first place vote) for gentlemanly play. 

Cheerless’ Take…

Two-point-five percent?  I ain’t no math whiz, but I know that’s not a big number.  And that was Johansson’s shooting percentage at even strength last season.  Two goals on 80 shots.  Neither was in a regulation win (one Gimmick win, against Minnesota on November 7^th, one overtime loss; against Philadelphia on March 2^nd).  His overall shooting percentage for the season (7.5 percent) was barely half of that over his first three seasons (14.2 percent).  His plus-minus on-ice per 60 minutes was second worst among Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games (-0.89).  Only Alex Ovechkin was worse (-1.45).  It was part of a whole first line meltdown.  Nicklas Backstrom was third worst (-0.86).  It was a team effort.

The Big Question… Will Marcus Johansson take the next step in his development?

Last year we asked this question in a slightly different way… “Can Johansson develop as a threat on his own on the left side to take some pressure off his linemates?”  Five goals, a 7.5 percent shooting percentage, 2.5 percent at even strength, a minus-21.  He didn’t answer that question in a way in which Caps fans might have hoped.  Johansson will start this season with more than 250 games of regular season under his belt (263 to be precise).  His apprenticeship is coming to an end.  He needs to be less of a passenger on a scoring line and more a player who can drive or create play on his own.

The uncertainty over just where Johansson will play muddies this issue somewhat.  That he can play a number of positions means that he might be called upon to play those positions.  If Barry Trotz moves Alex Ovechkin from wing to wing, that means another player (or more) moves, and Johansson might be just that player (although Brooks Laich also might fall into this category).

Johansson has demonstrated he can be a 50-point player (his points pace over his last 100-plus games).  Can he now: a) do it without the benefit of skating on a line with Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, and b) do it consistently?  That would be the next step in his development. 

In the end…

What is the Swedish word for “enigma?” Maybe “mystery” is a better word.  Despite those 263 games of regular season experience and the fact that he ranks so highly among his draft and rookie classes in career points, it is still hard to get a clear picture of just how much of his performance is due to talent and development, and how much is due to circumstance (playing with highly skilled linemates).

In 2014-2015 Johansson seems likely to come out from under that Backstrom-Ovechkin shield.  He might be asked to be the driver of a line (second or third line center).  It would be early to dismiss the likelihood that he can succeed in that role, given that his is more or less two seasons removed (and almost 120 games) removed from playing center on a consistent basis.

A lot of things have to go right for a hockey team to succeed, some of them within its power to control, others not so much.  With respect to Johansson there are two parts to this issue.  There is the matter of where head coach Barry Trotz chooses to deploy him.  That is not a matter under the player’s control.  Then there is the matter of taking advantage of the opportunity, no matter where he is deployed.  That is something over which Johansson can exert more control.  With four seasons and 250-plus games of experience, he has to take the training wheels off.  He has to be a contributing member of this squad on his own terms.  His big opportunity is where he is right now.  We just don’t quite know where he is right now on the ice yet.

Projection: 81 games, 15-33-48, plus-4

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America