Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 23

Week 23 was not kind to the Washington Capitals.  It extended a disconcerting trend, one of alternating good and bad weeks.  Since Week 18, the Caps have alternated winning and losing weeks, Week 23 being the second winless week in the last three.  It is not the sort of trend one would want to see as the season heads into it final weeks.

 

Record: 0-2-0

Week 23 was the second week in the last three that the Caps failed to secure a win.  They are 11-9-0 since setting off on this on-again/off-again alternating weeks of good and bad trip over the last six weeks.  The Caps have not beaten a playoff-eligible team since they took down the New York Islanders in a Gimmick on February 21^st.  They have not beaten a playoff-eligible in regulation or overtime since they beat Winnipeg, 5-1, on February 19^th.  You could say that the Caps haven’t played very many playoff-eligible teams since that win over the Islanders – three teams in nine games.  True, but the Caps are 0-3-0 in those games and 3-6-0 overall in those nine games.  Week 23 just added to the slump.

Offense:  1.50/game (season: 2.90/game; rank: 7th)

It was a poor week at the offensive end of the ice for the Caps, especially for the guys who have been here a while.  Evgeny Kuznetsov led the team in scoring for the short week, going 1-2-3 in the two games.  Curtis Glencross had one of the other two goals, while Andre Burakovsky added an assist. That’s two rookies and the new guy from Calgary doing their part.  After that, Alex Ovechkin had a goal but had his four-game goal scoring streak stopped against the Dallas Stars to close the week.  Joel Ward had a goal, but otherwise the third line was not heard from.  Troy Brouwer had an assists, and that was it from the second line.  It was not a good week for the guys on offense.

Defense: 3.50/game (season: 2.44/game; rank: 7th)

One of the things that has become common to playing playoff-eligible teams is the Caps being out-shot.  When the Rangers out-shot the Caps by a 31-29 margin on Wednesday, it was the fourth straight game that Washington was out-shot by a playoff-eligible team.  And, the two games in Week 23 in which the Caps were outshot overall, It made it four games in five overall in which the Caps were out-shot and six in seven in which they allowed 30 or more shots.  The only interruption in either of those streaks was the Caps out-shooting the woeful Buffalo Sabres, 45-17, on March 7^th.

Illness and injury threw the Caps’ defensive pairs into turmoil, forcing the team to mix up the first pair (with Brooks Orpik out) and the third pair (with Mike Green out) for the game against the Rangers to start the week.  Green returned for the game against the Stars, but there were still after-shocks.  As it was, John Carlson, who was paired with Nate Schmidt in place of Orpik at even strength and with Tim Gleason on the penalty kill, ended up being on ice for five of the seven goals scored against the Caps in Week 23.

Possession was an odd thing, not all that surprising in a week of light work where variations can be magnified in small populations of games.  The Caps had a 53.1 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall, a product of out-attempting the Rangers, 52-34, at 5-on-5 in the game to open the week.  In close score situations, that Corsi-for number was a lot different: 38.6 percent.  What accounts for the difference?  The Caps out-attempted the Rangers, 31-7, at 5-on-5 overall in the third period of their 3-1 loss, which does not show  up in the “close score” number.

Goaltending: 3.56 / .887 (season: 2.38 / .917 / 7 shutouts)

The news this week in this category boils down to a single number: 33:54.  That was the ice time logged by Braden Holtby against the Dallas Stars before he was relieved by Justin Peters, having allowed four goals on 22 shots in the Caps’ 4-1 loss.  It was the first game that Braden Holtby was pulled early after starting the game since he was relieved after giving up three goals on seven shots in 9:34 of work in a 6-5 loss to the San Jose Sharks on October 14th.  He had gone 55 consecutive starts without being relieved (he relieved Justin Peters for a period in a 6-2 loss to Toronto last November 29th).

Holtby has been slipping lately.  Since winning three in a row and allowing just four goals on 85 shots in mid-February, he is 3-6-0, 2.63, .913, with one shutout (two of the wins came against the imploding Maple Leafs and the ghastly Sabres).  If it is a slump, that is one thing.  Slumps have two phases – a downward one and then an upward one when one emerges from it.  If it is his workload showing, that might be a different matter.

Justin Peters got mop-up duty against the Stars, his first work in almost a month.  He stopped all nine shots he faced in almost 24 minutes of work, the third straight appearance in which he stopped at least 90 percent of the shots he faced (.915 save percentage overall) after having a string of five straight appearances in which he failed to meet that 90 percent standard.

Power Play: 1-for-6 / 16.7 percent (season: 24.6 percent; rank: 2nd)

The Caps came into the week on a power play tear, going 6-for-10 over their previous six games dating back to the third period of their 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh on February 25^th.  The Caps made it 7-for-11 when they scored on their first power play of Week 23 in the 3-1 loss to the Rangers.  That would do it for the week on the man advantage, though. 

The Caps wrapped up the week shooting blanks on their last five power plays.  Overall they finished with one goal on six power plays, converting that single goal on ten shots in 10:25 of power play ice time.  The efficiency for the week, and the week itself, might have been less disappointing if not for a single one of those shots.  On a 5-on-3 power play against the Rangers, with New York holding a 2-1 lead, Nicklas Backstrom took a nifty through-the-top-of-the-crease feed from Joel Ward and had an open short side at which to shoot.  His wrister was gloved down by Ranger goalie Cam Talbot, and the threat passed, the Caps’ best chance to make it a game.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-9 / 66.7 percent (season: 81.0 percent; rank: 16th)

It started well enough for the Caps killing penalties in Week 23.  They we perfect in three shorthanded situations against the Rangers.  It fell apart against the Dallas Stars.  The Stars scored on their first power play, scored on the front half of a double minor penalty to Joel Ward, then scored on what was their  fourth power play 14 minutes into the second period, taking a 4-1 lead and ending the competitive portion of the game.

Part of the problem against the Stars was luck (the first power play goal was a deflection off Curtis Glencross’ skate), poor positioning (Tyler Seguin could have written an opera with the time he had to set up to take a slap shot from the left wing circle), and fate (the Stars scored on a 2-on-1 rush after Eric Fehr shot wide on a good shorthanded scoring chance).

As it was, the Caps allowed three goals on 13 shots in 15:37 in shorthanded ice time.  It was not as much an inefficient week (shots per minute of shorthanded ice time) as ineffectiveness that might have been a product of unfamiliarity.  John Carlson and Tim Gleason were a pair victimized twice by Dallas extra-man goals.

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 2-4 / minus-2 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.08; rank: 13th)

It was not the what, but the when.  Four even strength goals allowed is not an awful week, but allowing three of them to the Rangers in the first game of the week, while getting none of their own, sank the Caps in the first game in the week.  And, allowing just one was not enough in the second game of the week when the penalty kill was being shredded.

At the other end, Curtis Glencross and Evgeny Kuznetsov scored the only even-strength goals for the Caps in Week 23.  Kuznetsov’s was technically an even strength goal, although it was scored with the Caps’ net empty for a sixth attacker late in the 4-2 loss to Dallas.  It was hardly a surprising result, give that the Caps were out-shot by a 35-19 margin in the first and second periods of the two games for the week (only one even strength shot from Alex Ovechkin in the first two periods of the two games).  That kind of anemic production at evens did as much as anything to ruin the week for Washington.

Faceoffs:73-130 / 56.2 percent (season: 51.6% / rank: 9th)

Well, there was one good thing about the week, and it was largely wasted.  The Caps dominated faceoffs in all three zones.  It was largely due to Eric Fehr, who had a monster week in the circle, if a meek one (no points) in the two games this week.  Fehr was 22-for-29 overall (75.9 percent) and was well over 50 percent in each of the three zones – 70.0 percent in the offensive zone, 66.7 percent in the defensive zone, and 90.0 percent in the neutral zone.

Nicklas Backstrom had what for him was an off week.  He managed only 16 wins in 37 faceoffs, coming out on the losing end in each of the three zones (44.4/42.9/42.9 in the offensive, defensive, and neutral zones, respectively).

Goals by Period:

The Caps took it in the teeth in the first and second periods of games for the week.  They took a 2-1 deficit to the locker room at the first intermission of both games.  The Caps being a team that entered the week with a 2-9-4 record when trailing after one period, that was not a good sign in either game.

The Caps could not make up for it in the third period, recording only a late extra-attacker goal in the 4-2 loss to Dallas.  It was another example of a thin week on offense for the Caps.

In the end…

Do you remember those B-movie adventure flicks when some poor unsuspecting soul would wander into a pool of quicksand and be slowly, inexorably sucked into its pit?

The Caps have that look at the moment (minus the shrieking).  They are not awful, but they are slowly slipping in the standings, making things a lot more suspenseful than fans would like. 

The schedule to close the season does the Caps no favors, either.  Six of the Caps’ last 13 games are at home, and the schedule is sprinkled with teams that are currently playoff eligible or closing on the Caps for that position: Boston twice, the New York Rangers twice, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Nashville, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa.  If the Caps continue as there are, there is still time for them to sink under the quicksand.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-2-3, even, nine shots on goal, 11 shot attempts, five hits)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (1-1-2, seven shots on goal, 21 shot attempts, ten hits)
• Third Star: Justin Peters (9-for-9/1.000 save percentage in 23:56)

The stars were a bit dimmer this week…

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 70: Bruins at Capitals, March 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their season-longest five-game home stand on Sunday when they host the Boston Bruins at Verizon Center.  It will be a clash of two teams that have passed one another on their respective journeys to the post season.  The Caps are 12-12-2 since January 14^th when they were 24-11-8 and only three points out of the Eastern Conference lead.  They are now 36-23-10 and reside in eighth place in the East, holding the second wild card spot, seven points ahead of the ninth-place Ottawa Senators.

Meanwhile, the Bruins passed the Caps for the first wild card spot in the East with a 2-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday afternoon.  It extended their consecutive games streak earning points to eight (7-0-1).   The Bruins have played well, but they have benefited from a bit of puck luck, too. Three of those seven wins in the eight-game streak came in extra time, and a fourth – Saturday’s win over Pittsburgh – was a one-goal game until Zdeno Chara scored into an empty net with 37.7 seconds left in regulation.  Boston outscored their opponents by a 25-14 margin over those eight games.  Their special teams performed adequately, the power play going 6-for-30 (20.0 percent) and the penalty kill going 20-for-25 (80.0 percent).

Boston has had enviable balance in their scoring over their 7-0-1 streak.  Brad Marchand leads the club with five goals in that span, and six other players have three apiece: Dan Paille, Loui Eriksson, Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak, Milan Lucic, and Zdeno Chara.  Spooner and Pastrnak each have eight points to lead the Bruins in total scoring in this recent run.

Spooner started the season with the Bruins but was assigned to Providence in the AHL after appearing in five games without recording a point.  He was recalled in late February, and the second tour with the Bruins appears to have gone much better.  In ten games since his recall he has points in eight contests, going 3-6-9, plus-3.  Spooner has one career game against the Caps, going without a point in the Caps’ 4-0 win in Boston on October 11^th.

Pastrnak, the 25^th overall pick of the 2014 entry draft, has spent this season shuttling between the Providence Bruins in the AHL and the parent club.  His movements have taken place on almost a monthly basis – assigned to Providence in October, recalled in November; reassigned to Providence in December, recalled in January.  The recall in January might have been the charm.  In his second and third games following that recall he scored a pair of goals in each and recorded the game-winning goal in each..  More recently he has points in each of his last four games, seven of his last eight contests, and 12 of his last 16 outings, going 5-8-13 in that span.  He has not yet faced the Caps.

Since the 2012-2013 season, among goalies appearing in at least 50 games overall, no goaltender has a better save percentage than Boston’s Tuukka Rask (.927).  His 2.13 goals against average over that span trails only New Jersey's Cory Schneider (2.11) and St. Louis’ Brian Elliott (2.12).  His 14 shutouts trail only Washington’s Braden Holtby (15), Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury (15), and Montreal’s Carey Price (16).  Rask is just slightly off those numbers so far this season with a 2.26 goals against average (12^th in the league) and a .924 save percentage (10^th), with three shutouts (tied for 15^th).  Over the Bruins’ recent 7-0-1 run, Rask has found his rhythm.  He is 5-0-1, 1.45, .955 with one shutout.  He is 1-4-3, 3.13, .883, with one shutout in eight career appearances against Washington. 

Rask’s shutout came in Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh, which means Niklas Svedberg might get the call in net for Boston.  His overall record is not extraordinary (7-5-2, 2.43, .918), but he does have three wins and a no-decision in his last four appearances.  He has never faced the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Boston has an ability to jump on teams early.  They are tied for sixth in goals scored in the first periods of games (61) and have a plus-14 goal differential in the first period.  There is a bit of an odd quality to their first period scoring, however.  Only 27 times in 68 games have the Bruins taken a lead into the first intermission, and they rank 19^th in winning percentage (.741/20-5-2).

2.  No team has enjoyed fewer power plays on the road than the Bruins (84).  Only Minnesota (10), Montreal (10), and Buffalo (9) have scored fewer power play goals on the road than Boston (11).

3.  With 112 times being shorthanded on the road, the Bruins are minus-28 in special teams opportunity differential.  In three road games on this 7-0-1 run, they are plus-1 in special teams opportunity differential.

4.  Three seems to be the magic number for the Bruins.  In games in which they score three or more goals (not including trick shots), they are 27-4-4.

5.  The Bruins might have a 7-0-1 record in their last eight games, but it has been the product of mixed possession number results.  Boston has a Corsi-for percentage at overall 5-on-5 of just 48.5 over those eight games.  However, in close score situations the Bruins Corsi-for percentage is 52.5 over those eight games.

1.  What happened to the home stand?  The Caps are 1-3-0, and while the goals, for and against, are even (10-10), six of those goals scored came against the hapless Buffalo Sabres.  Only one of the other four goals scored in the three losses was scored after the first period, and that was a window dressing goal scored with less than two minutes left in the Caps’ 4-2 loss to Dallas on Friday.

2.  It is nice that the new guy is contributing, but having Curtis Glencross leading the team in goals (3) and points (5) over a four-game stretch at home might not have been in the game plan.  He and Alex Ovechkin account for five of the Caps’ 10 goals on the home stand.  Five other players have one apiece: Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Jay Beagle, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Marcus Johansson.

3.  Washington has been killing too many penalties at home.  They rank in a tie for fourth in the league in most shorthanded situations on home ice (116).

4.  The Caps’ first period scoring is quite the opposite of that of the Bruins.  Washington is tied for the sixth-fewest number of first period goals this season (47).

5.  Only the New York Islanders in the Eastern Conference have generated more total shot attempts this season (4489) than the Caps (4038).  As good as that might sound, the Caps are ranked just eighth in the East in shot attempt differential (plus-143).  That is because the Caps have allowed the seventh-most number of shot attempts against (3895).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Zdeno Chara

On Wednesday, Zdeno Chara will turn 38 years old.  Only seven of 291 defensemen having dressed this season are older.  While Chara is hardly doddering on the eve of his next birthday, there are signs that age is creeping into his game.  His 0.38 points per game this season is his lowest as a Bruin and his lowest since the 2001-2002 season in 75 games with the Ottawa Senators.  While plus-minus is not an especially persuasive indicator of performance, his plus-2 for the season would be his lowest for a season since 2006-2007.  Drilling down a bit, his Corsi-for (relative) at 5-on-5 ranks 30^th in the league among defensemen (minimum: 500 minutes).  While that is an improvement on his 53^rd-place ranking last season, it is a drop-off from his fourth-place ranking in the Bruins’ Stanley Cup season of 2010-2011.  He still leads the team’s defensemen in shorthanded ice time (3:17), and he is still logging significant minutes on the power play (2:06, third among Bruins defensemen).  Chara has three goals in his last seven games; in 58 career games against the Caps he is 7-19-26, plus-10.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

With two assists against the Buffalo Sabres last Saturday, Nicklas Backstrom tied Michal Pivonka for the franchise record in assists (418).  In two games since, he has not added to that total, but that seems understandable since he was fighting the flu last week.  Of more concern might be that he has gone ten games without a goal and has only two in his last 18 games.  The Caps are 24-11-7 this season when Backstrom records a point, 9-1-4 when he scores a goal.  He is in sight of his second-highest season goal total (22 in 2008-2009), and he might have to challenge or surpass it if the Caps are to hold on to a wild-card spot to qualify for the post season.  In 23 career games against the Bruins, Backstrom is 4-19-23, plus-6.

In the end…

On February 21^st the Caps defeated the New York Islanders, 3-2, in a Gimmick.  The win left the Caps just five points out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference and 12 points ahead of the ninth-place Florida Panthers.  They will take the ice on Sunday 11 points out of the conference lead and just six points ahead of Florida for the last playoff spot, the Panthers holding a game in hand.  Ottawa is seven points back with the Senators holding two games in hand.  It is not time for fans to panic over the Caps chances to reach the playoffs, but that collar is getting a bit tight.

What makes things more serious for the Caps is that as they embark on their last 13 games they get the Bruins twice, the New York Rangers twice, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Nashville, Montreal, Detroit.  That is nine games against teams that would qualify for the playoffs today.  Add in a game against the Senators on April 4^th, and the home stretch looks more like a mine field.  The Caps are going to get a dose of playoff hockey over these last four weeks, and it starts against the Bruins on Sunday.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

A NO-Point Night -- Game 69: Stars 4 - Capitals 2

It was not the worst game the Washington Capitals played this season, but they could see from here.  What they could not see very much of was the Dallas Stars buzzing in, around, and through the Capitals’ defensive zone, scoring twice in each of the first two periods on their way to a 4-2 win at Verizon Center.

It did not take Dallas long to start the scoring.  With the Stars on a power play, Ales Hemsky led an assault on the Caps’ end.  When the defense backed off, he left the puck for Shawn Horcoff filling in down the middle.  Horcoff fired, his shot ticking off Curtis Glencross’ skate and sailed over goalie Braden Holtby’s blocker into the back of the net 3:25 into the game.

Glencross evened things up in the 12^th minute of the first period.  From in front of the Dallas bench, Troy Brouwer fed Evgeny Kuznetsov closing on the Dallas blue line.  Kuznetsov carried the puck diagonally across the zone and left if for Glencross at the top of the left wing circle.  Glencross cut back across the middle and backhanded the puck on net.  Goalie Kari Lehtonen made the first stop but left the puck lying next to his right pad.  Glencross followed his own shot and stuffed it past Lehtonen to tie the game.

The Stars took the lead for good late in the period when Colton Sceviour circled out from behind the Caps’ net, looped around the left wing circle, made his way all the way around to the top of the right wing circle and wristed the puck past Holtby 16:55 into the period.

Dallas poured it on in the second period, scoring a pair of goals less than seven minutes apart, both on power plays.  Tyler Seguin took advantage of time and space to wind and fire a slap shot over Holtby’s blocker on the short side from the Ovechkin circle at 7:21.  Vernon Fiddler made it 4-1 at 14:05 moments after Eric Fehr shot wide on a shorthanded chance.  The puck skittered to center ice where Ales Hemsky picked it up.  He skated into the Caps’ end, toe-dragged between Brooks Laich and Tim Gleason, then slid the puck over to Fiddler for a tap-in that ended Holtby’s night. 

Justin Peters prevented any further damage, but that unleashed by the Stars was already sufficient.  Evgeny Kuznetsov added a cosmetic goal on a shot from the right wing boards that surprised Lehtonen as it sailed over his left shoulder.   It was too little, too late, as the Caps fell, 4-2.

Other stuff…

-- The “game,” as it were, was in the first two periods, and in those first 40 minutes the Stars out attempted the Caps at 5-on-5 by a 36-19 margin.  The Stars had six shots and a goal before the Caps recorded their first shot on goal, 9:23 into the first period.

-- As it was, the Caps lost the Corsi battle at 5-on-5 for the game, finishing at 44.6 percent.  Barely a week ago they were 44.2 percent against Minnesota, and before that they were 46.7 against Columbus.  The Caps have been under 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in 11 of their last 15 games.  This is not a trend to be envied.

-- Three power play goals against ties a season high, set in consecutive games against Toronto and Vancouver on November 29^th and December 2^nd. 

-- Alex Ovechkin had a personal four-game goal scoring streak snapped, but he did record an assist to make it five straight games with points and in six in his last seven.  His assist on the Kuznetsov goal lifted him into a tie with Michal Pivonka and Nicklas Backstrom for the franchise record in career assists (418).

-- Curtis Glencross scored his third goal in his last four games, the first time he has done three-in-four this season.

-- This was the first game that Braden Holtby was pulled early after starting the game since he was relieved after giving up three goals on seven shots in 9:34 of work in a 6-5 loss to the San Jose Sharks on October 14^th.  He had gone 55 consecutive starts without being relieved (he relieved Justin Peters for a period in a 6-2 loss to Toronto last November 29^th).

-- The Caps were shutout on the power play on three opportunities, breaking a five-game streak with power play goals scored.

-- Kuznetsov’s goal was his first since February 5^th in a 2-1 win over Ottawa.  He had gone 16 games without a goal.  He led the Caps in shots on goal with four.

-- The defense managed only two shots on goal for the evening (Mike Green, John Carlson) despite 14 shot attempts.

-- The bench penalty for too-many men on the ice was just the fifth bench minor for the Caps this season.  They had been tied for second fewest bench minors in the league.

-- The hits were 36-11, Caps.  That’s what happens when the other team has the puck all the time.

In the end…

The Caps are not playing very good hockey at the moment.  It isn’t the worst time for them to have this slump (mid-April would be), but it isn’t the best time to have it, either.  Take away the scrimmage against Buffalo, and the Caps have four goals in the other three of their last four games, all losses.  Just as alarming is their Corsi-for percentage in close score situations in those three games – 41.0.  The Caps aren’t playing “heavy” as much as they are playing “slow.”

And now, the Boston Bruins will visit Verizon Center on Sunday evening with an opportunity to pass the Capitals for the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference if they do not do so on Saturday with a win over Pittsburgh.  They are on a roll, winners of four in a row and six of their last seven.  Meanwhile, the Caps are trying to figure out how all the air went out their balloon after the 14-1-4 run in December and January.  Over their last 26 games they are 12-12-2, 6-6-1 against teams that today would qualify for the post season.

The longest home stand of the season has been disappointing with three losses in four contests.  The Caps have one game from which they can salvage something short of a disaster.  More important, they have to demonstrate that their best hockey is ahead of them, not a Christmas present last December.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 69: Stars at Capitals, March 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys is one of the most renowned rivalries in the National Football League.  The Washington Capitals and the Dallas Stars?  Uh…no.  Since the teams first met in October 1974, when the Stars were in Minnesota and were the “North Stars,” they have done battle 90 times.  Washington trails in the series with a 29-44-16-1 record, which includes a 5-4 loss in Dallas on January 17^th, a game in which the Caps fought back from a 0-3 deficit to tie the game, only to allow goals 16 seconds apart in the third period to stifle the comeback.

More recently, the Stars have been trying to claw out from under the wreckage of a six-game losing streak (0-4-2) that dropped them from four points behind the San Jose Sharks for the last playoff spot to six points out of that spot (trailing the Calgary Flames) and all but ruining their playoff hopes.  Since that losing streak the Stars are 3-1-0, but the damage might have been done.

The real damage was done just before that losing streak, though.  Late in the third period of a game against the Florida Panthers, with the Stars nursing a 2-0 lead, Panther defenseman Dmitry Kulikov hit Tyler Seguin low and sent the Stars forward sprawling across the ice.  Seguin suffered a knee injury, Kulikov was suspended for four games for clipping Seguin, and the Stars started falling further out of the discussion of playoff contenders.

Seguin returned to the lineup last Saturday against Tampa Bay and scored a pair of goals after missing ten games.  It did not matter; the Stars lost to the Lightning, 5-4.  As it is, even with Seguin having missed those ten games he is second on the team in total scoring (61 points), and leads the team in goals (31) by a substantial margin over Jamie Benn (23).  Seguin is 4-3-7 in 14 career games against the Caps, including a goal and an assist in the Stars’ 5-4 win on January 17th.

Of players playing in the first six seasons of their careers over the 2009-2010 to the 2014-2015 seasons, only John Tavares has scored more goals (169) than Jamie Benn (139).  He has scored 20 or more goals in each of his five full seasons to date (including this one), and was on a pace to do so in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season (12 in 41 games).  Lately, though, Benn seems to have lost his touch.  Since recording a hat trick against the St. Louis Blues in a 4-1 win on February 17^th, Benn has one goal in his last ten games, none in his last eight.  He is 2-4-6 in six career games against Washington.

Kari Lehtonen wins games in goal for the Stars, but he isn’t especially effective in doing so.  Only three goalies in the NHL have allowed four or more goals more times than Lehtonen (15) – Edmonton’s Ben Scrivens (17), Arizona’s Mike Smith (18), and Jhonas Enroth (15 times with Buffalo, three times with Dallas).  His 2.94 goals against average ranks 36^th of 43 qualifying goaltenders; his .906 save percentage ranks 33^rd in that group.  Lehtonen’s save percentage at even strength (.911) ranks 36^th among goalies appearing in at least 25 games.  Put another way, he is not stealing games.  Lehtonen is 12-24-5 when the Stars score three or fewer goals.  What he does have, though, is wins against the Caps.  Lehtonen has not beaten any team in his career as often as he has beaten the Caps (14-6-2, 2.61, .924, two shutouts in 22 appearances).

1.  Only St. Louis has scored five or more goals in more games (15) than the Stars (14; 11-1-2).  The Stars are one of only four teams to have scored five goals in a game and lost in regulation this season (the New York Islanders, Calgary, and the Caps being the others).  They lost, 7-5, to the Islanders on October 25^th.  By the way, the Caps’ loss in this category was a 6-5 decision against the Arizona Coyotes on November 2^nd.

2.  Dallas scores goals every which way.  They rank fourth in goals scored at 5-on-5 (144), seventh in 5-on-4 goals (39), tied for fifth in 5-on-3 goals (3), tied for tenth in 4-on-4 goals (6), and tied for fourth in 4-on-5 goals.

3.  Dallas allows goals every which way, too.  Their 153 goals allowed at 5-on-5 is second-most in the league.  They are tied for fifth in most goals allowed at 4-on-4 (6).  The Stars are second worst in allowing 4-on-4 goals (8).  They are tied for second worst in allowing goals at 3-on-4 (2; the Caps are worst with four goals allowed).  Dallas is tied for eighth in most goals allowed at 4-on-5 (39).

4.  Holding leads is an issue for the Stars.  They have the sixth worst winning percentage in the league when scoring first (.583/21-9-6).  They have the tenth-worst winning percentage when taking a lead into the first intermission (.727/16-5-1), and they have lost eight games when leading at the second intermission (three losses in regulation, five in extra time).  No team has lost more games when leading after 40 minutes.

5.  Shot attempts are hardly scarce in Stars games.  Dallas leads the league in total Corsi events (shot attempts), both teams, per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (118.1) and total Fenwick attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (87.2). 

1.  Last season the Caps had 16 players who finished the season in double-digits in points out of 35 skaters dressing for the club.  This season they have 17 players with ten or more points out of 27 skaters dressing for the team.  If there is an 18^th, it would seem new Capital Curtis Glencross would be the best candidate.  He has four points in four games and has 14 more games to get six points.

2.  Health has been an issue for the Caps over the past few days, but it remains that the Caps have had a comparatively fortunate season thus far.  Through 68 games, the Caps have had 13 players appear in 60 or more games.  In 2013-2014, the Caps had only 12 players all season who appeared in 60 or more games.

3.  The Caps still have the league’s best record in games decided by three or more goals (12-3).  Three of the Caps’ last six games have ended in such decisions, and the Caps are 2-1 in those games.

4.  Washington has the league’s second-best special teams index at home (112.5, the sum of power play and penalty kill percentages).  Detroit has the best (115.0).

5.  One would like the Caps to get off to better starts, possession-wise.  Washington is 19th in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in the first period (50.0).  They are much better in the second period (52.9/6^th), but they slip back again in the third period (50.5/18^th).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Antoine Roussel

Among the Stars’ top goal scorers, Tyler Seguin has missed time to injury (as noted above), as has Trevor Daley (out the last week after a knee-on-knee hit from the Islanders’ Matt Martin).  Erik Cole was traded to Detroit, and Cody Eakin was suspended by the team for disciplinary reasons earlier this week (he was reinstated for Thursday’s game against Carolina).  Where is the secondary scoring coming from?  Perhaps Antoine Roussel.  The third year forward is seventh on the team in goals (12), and he is the only player in the league with 12 or more goals and 125 or more penalty minutes.  He is also a team-worst minus-14, so perhaps there are limits to his contributions.  He has not done much scoring of late, though.  He has one goal in his last 21 games, over which he is a minus-12.  In three career games against the Caps he is 1-0-1.

Washington: Troy Brouwer

When Troy Brouwer scored 25 goals and recorded 43 points last season – both career highs – the thinking coming into this season was that a regression was in order.  Well, if there is to be one, it might not be much.  Brouwer is on a pace to finish 22-19-41.  The 19 assists would tie a career high, and the 22 goals would tie his second best season, 2009-2010 with Chicago.  He has found the goals a little harder to come by lately; he has three goals in his last 17 games.  Part of the problem might be a bit more frequency in his trips to the penalty box.  Brouwer recorded 22 of his 45 penalty minutes this season in his last 14 games.  He is 5-5-10 in 16 career games against the Stars.

In the end…

The Caps have shown a skill lately of dispatching struggling teams effectively.  They beat Buffalo (6-1), Columbus (5-3), and Toronto (4-0), teams looking past this season.  Dallas is on the brink of falling out of the Western Conference race if they have not already.  Their strength – scoring goals – has suffered some slippage in March with 13 goals in five games (their season average is 3.08 goals per game).  The Caps can use this game as a springboard to get through a softer stretch of their schedule (they get the Stars, Sabres, and Devils over their next six games before facing Nashville and the Rangers in back-to-back games). 

The Caps, who looked to be firmly installed as the first wild card team and challenging for the Metropolitan Division lead a week ago, are now just four points ahead of Boston with the Bruins holding two games in hand and trailing the Caps by only one win in regulation and overtime. This game against the Stars is one that the Caps need to win, more than one might think looking at the records of the two teams.

Capitals 5 – Stars 3

A NO-Point Night -- Game 68: Rangers 3 - Capitals 1

If there were any messages to be sent in last night’s game between the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers, it was the Rangers doing the sending, that they are the team to be beat in the Metropolitan Division, if not the Eastern Conference. The Rangers smothered the Caps behind goalie Cam Talbot’s 28 saves, 3-1, at Verizon Center.

Carl Hagelin got the Rangers on the board first, finishing after some persistent pressure in the Caps’ end by batting in a loose puck from the top of the crease past goalie Braden Holtby 8:20 into the game.

Washington tied it three minutes later on a power play. After the Caps put in some hard work digging out the puck from below the Ranger goal line, Evgeny Kuznetsov collected the loose puck in the corner and fed Alex Ovechkin for a one timer above the left wing circle. The shot hit the stick of Ranger defender Jesper Fast and changed direction, sailing past Talbot’s blocker to tie the game.

J.T. Miller broke the tie before the first intermission when the Caps could not clear the puck out of their own zone. Tim Gleason’s attempted clear hit a seam in the glass and ricocheted back to the middle of the ice where Kevin Hayes picked it up. Hayes backed through the high slot, then fed Miller, who wristed the puck past Holtby on the short side to make it 2-1 for the visitors.

That would be all for the scoring until late in the third period when John Carlson’s pass to Nate Schmidt at the top of the offensive zone was intercepted by Chris Kreider. It set up a two-on-one break with Martin St. Louis that became a two-on-none as Carlson was left chasing the pair as they entered the Caps’ zone. Krieder skated in and fed St. Louis for the tap-in that ended the suspense for the evening, the Rangers skating off with the 3-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- The loss was the fourth in the last five games the Caps have played against Metropolitan Division opponents.

-- Ovechkin’s power play goal made it five straight games in which the Caps recorded a goal with the extra man. They are 6-for-11 over that span (54.5 percent).

-- The Caps were a perfect 3-for-3 killing penalties, making it five games in six that they have been so and going 15-for-16 over those six games (93.8 percent).

-- Mike Green and Brooks Orpik sat out with ailments; Cameron Schilling and Nate Schmidt taking over. It was Orpik’s first missed game as a Capital.

-- The absences made a difference.  All three Ranger goals were scored with make-shift pairs on the ice for the Caps.  Schmidt and John Carlson were on for the first and third Ranger goals, Tim Gleason and Schilling for the second New York goal (although that was bad luck as much as anything).

-- Fifteen of the 18 skaters for the Caps were credited with hits, Tom Wilson leading the team with six. Evgeny Kuznetsov was next in line with four (and you thought “hits” was an arbitrary stat).

-- Joel Ward’s assist on the Ovechkin goal made it four in his last five games with a point.

-- Ovechkin’s goal was his 45th of the season; he joins four other players in NHL history with seven or more 45-goal seasons (Marcel Dionne, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy, and Wayne Gretzky).

-- Jay Beagle, who has enjoyed a substantial amount of time on scoring lines this season, skated under eight minutes for just the third time this season (7:43). He suffered an upper body injury and did not skate in the third period.

-- Eric Fehr was 12-for-15 on faceoffs, accounting for all of the advantage the Caps had in the circle for the game (38 wins, 29 losses).

In the end…

Barry Trotz said the right things about a third of his defense being spare parts… “They were both fine.  We handled it okay. That’s a pretty good team on the other side there. They’re deep and they’re fast. They were a good test for our guys. We’re missing a couple important guys. Would they make a difference in the game? I don’t know. But it’s not an excuse. We played well enough to at least get a point tonight.” 

That’s fine for media consumption, but the fact is that the Caps have lost three straight games to the Rangers, dating back to last season.  This is a team that is likely to be standing in the Caps’ path at some point in the post season, and the Caps need to demonstrate that they can do better than “well enough,” even if they are nicked up.  They will have two more chances in the regular season, perhaps facing a once-more healthy Henrik Lundqvist in goal.  Cam Talbot did a pretty good imitation of him on Wednesday night, a demonstration that injury – even to the team’s most important player – need not be debilitating.  The Caps have work to do.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Rangers at Capitals, March 11h

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Call it “Hump Game,” if you will.  The Washington Capitals host the New York Rangers on Wednesday (“Hump Day”) in what is the middle game of their five-game home stand at Verizon Center.  The Caps will be looking to get over another “hump” of sorts, that being the Rangers themselves.  Since Game 7 of the opening round of the 2009 playoffs, won by the Caps, 2-1, Washington is 9-10-1 against the Rangers in the regular season (2-4-1 in their last seven games at home), and they have dropped two of three playoff series to the Rangers, both in seven-games.  That regular season record includes a 4-2 loss to the Rangers in New York on December 23rd.

Meanwhile, the Rangers went into their Tuesday night game against the New York Islanders as a team on a roll.  Since losing consecutive games to the Islanders and the Montreal Canadiens in late January, New York has earned points in 16 of 18 games (13-2-3) and climbed to within three points of first place in the Metropolitan Division after being seven points out when they started their run in late January (they hold four games in hand on the first-place Islanders).

There are some distinct similarities between these two teams.  At a team-wide level, both teams have high-octane offenses, the Rangers having just a bit higher octane rating (3.05 goals per game to the Caps’ 2.94).  Their defenses are among the most effective in the league, the Rangers being just a bit stingier (2.34 goals allowed per game to the Caps’ 2.40).

On an individual level, both the Rangers and Caps have a dominant goal-scorer.  Alex Ovechkin leads the league in goals (44) and has 30 goals in his last 35 games (a 70-goal scoring pace over a full season), while the Rangers’ Rick Nash is second in league goal-scoring (38).

Nash has already recorded more goals than he has in any season since posting 40 in 2008-2009 with Columbus. He is a hat trick away (perish the thought) from tying a career-best 41 goals, set with Columbus in his sophomore season in 2003-2004.  He has not been especially hot lately, though, having scored one goal in his last six games despite recording 22 shots on goal.  In 16 career games against Washington, Nash is 12-8-20, plus-2.  His 18.2 percent career shooting percentage against the Caps is his third best against any team against which he has appeared in at least ten games.  Only against Buffalo (20.3 percent) and Ottawa (18.8 percent) has he been better.

The Rangers are just one of three teams with five defensemen on their roster having recorded at least 15 points this season (the Caps and Nashville are the others).  It might surprise one to know that the defenseman leading that group for the Rangers is Kevin Klein (no relation).  His nine goals and 26 points are career highs in each category; his 17 assists ties a career high set with Nashville in 2011-2012.  Klein has been somewhat dormant of late, though.  After posting points in five straight games in early February, he is 0-1-1 in his last nine contests.  He has ramped up his shooting of late, however, recording eight shots on goal over his last three games after recording four over a nine-game stretch and no more than one in any of them.  In six career games against the Caps, Klein has yet to record a point.

When a Ranger goaltender posts season numbers of a 2.33 goals against average and a .921 save percentage, you would be tempted to conclude, “yeah, another decent Henrik Lundqvist season.”  Except, those are the season numbers for Cam Talbot in 26 games thus far, the last 15 of those appearances (he was spelled once by Mackenzie Skapski) as the Rangers number one netminder.  Talbot took over those responsibilities when Lundavist was struck it the neck by a shot from Carolina's Brad Malone in a 4-1 win on January 31st after teammate Ryan McDonagh's stick pushed up his goalie mask to expose his throat.  Since taking over for Lundqvist, Talbot has not been spectacular (2.44, .917), but he has won (10-2-3 with two shutouts).  He has one career appearance against the Caps, allowing three goals on 34 shots in a 32 Caps win on December 27, 2013.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  The Rangers are front runners.  They do not lead the league in first period goals – they are fourth with 61 – but they are second in the league in first period goal differential (plus-21 going into Tuesday’s game with the Islanders; New Jersey is plus-23).

2.  New York seems to play well with others in one respect.  They have the fifth-fewest number of minor penalties called against them this season (207).

3.  When the Rangers are killing penalties, look out.  With eight shorthanded goals in 188 shorthanded situations, they have the third-best frequency of shorthanded goals scored (one in every 23.5 situations; both the Islanders and Dallas have one in every 23.5 situations).  On the other hand, they have the fifth-worst frequency of shorthanded goals allowed to power play opportunities (one in every 30.3 power plays).

4.  New York is one of six teams not yet losing in regulation time when leading after two periods.  Over the past five seasons, including this one, the Rangers are 130-1-6 when leading after two periods.  We do not recommend the Caps going into the last 20 minutes behind the Rangers.

5.  Is there a correction somewhere in the Rangers’ future?  Their Corsi-for/Fenwick for percentages at 5-on-5 are rather mediocre (50.6/17th-ranked Corsi; 50.4/14th-ranked Fenwick).  In close score situations they are not much better (50.9/15th-ranked Corsi; 51.0/18th-ranked Fenwick).  Maybe it’s a PDO thing, specifically the save percentage component.  At 5-on-5, the Rangers’ PDO is 101.6, third-best in the league; in close score situations it is 101.8, best in the league.  The save percentage component of that in overall and close score situations (93.0/93.3) rank fifth and third, respectively.  The Rangers rely a lot on goaltending from a possession numbers perspective (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Here is an odd one… Four Capitals have recorded at least one point on both the power play and shorthanded.  Two of them are defensemen: John Carlson and Matt Niskanen (Troy Brower and Eric Fehr are the others).

2.  Tom Wilson does not seem quite as ornery at home as he does on the road.  Of Wilson’s 145 penalty minutes, 52 were earned at home, and of his 11 fights, only four were on Verizon Center ice.

3.  The Caps are one of just three teams that have 30 or more wins when scoring first (30).  The Rangers are another (31).  Pittsburgh (30) rounds out the trio.  Must be a Metro thing.

4.  Alex Ovechkin leads the Caps in goals scored in the Metropolitan Division (14).  You probably knew that.  Know who is second?  Eric Fehr (10).

5.  Washington might have some of the same issues as do the Rangers in their home possession numbers, at least at home.  At Verizon Center their Corsi-for percentages, overall and close score, are unremarkable (52.4/14th-ranked; 53.8/11th-ranked).  Ditto, Fenwick (53.0/11th-ranked; 54.2/10th-ranked).  However, those PDO numbers exhibit an odd sort of behavior.  At 5-on-5 overall, the Caps have a PDO 100.7 (12th-ranked).  In close score situations, however, they have a PDO of 102.0 (3rd-ranked; all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Dominic Moore

What a road well-traveled by Dominic Moore.  In 2000 he was a third-round draft pick of the Rangers, taken 95th overall after his freshman year with Harvard University.  After completing his four-year career at Harvard, he played in parts of two seasons with the Rangers before a rather active day in 2006.  On July 19th of that year Moore was traded by the Rangers to Nashville for Adam Hall, and then the Predators traded Moore on the same day to the Pittsburgh Penguins with Libor Pivko (how’s that for a hockey name?) in exchange for the Penguins’ third round pick in the 2007 entry draft (Nashville took Ryan Thang, who played one game in the NHL…so did Pivko, for that matter).  The following February, Moore packed his bags once more, traded to Minnesota for the Wild’s third round pick in the 2007 entry draft.  In January 2008 he was a waiver claim by the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Moore lasted more than a year in Toronto...barely. 

In March 2009 he was traded to Buffalo as a rental for a second round draft pick.  He was a short-timer in Buffalo, heading off to Florida in October as a free agent.  Florida traded him to Montreal in February 2010 for a second round draft pick – another rental deal – after which Moore signed as a free agent by Tampa Bay that summer.  In February 2012 he was traded to San Jose with a seventh-round draft pick for a second-round pick in 2012.  In July 2013 he returned “home,” so to speak, signing with the Rangers as a free agent.  Drafted, traded, waived, signed as a free agent.  It’s sort of the “Dominic Moore Hat Trick, plus one.”  He has 667 regular season games played at ten stops (the Rangers counted twice) and another 69 post-season games played for five different teams (again, the Rangers counted twice).  Oddly enough, for a player as well traveled as Moore and with so many games under his belt, he has only 29 career regular season games played against the Caps (tied for 87th most since 2003-2004, his first year in the league).  He is 3-7-10, minus-3, in those 29 games.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Once upon a time, Evgeny Kuznetsov was thought to be a potential contender for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.  That was before Nashville’s Filip Forsberg took the trophy by the throat and ran away with it (with apologies to Johnny Hockey) and before Kuznetsov was shuttled up and down the forward lines, playing anywhere from the top line to the fourth line (where he has spent more time lately, only once cracking 12 minutes in his last six games). 

Still, with all the shuttling around and the attention paid to rookies elsewhere, Kuznetsov is 11th in rookie scoring (6-19-25) and eighth in assists.  Those numbers are, however, disappointing after an abbreviated inaugural campaign in which he was 3-6-9 in just 17 games at the end of last season.  It has been more than a month since he last scored a goal (February 5th against Ottawa), and he has just one point in his last 11 contests.  He and fellow rookie Andre Burakovsky (the surprise that Kuznetsov was not, although he is in Hershey at the moment) have combined for a 15-31-46 scoring line, what folks might have thought Kuznetsov could accomplish on his own this season.  In that respect, one hopes that Kuznetsov can find the spark (and deployment) to improve his production in time for the playoffs.  In one career game against the Rangers (December 23rd this season, a 4-2 Rangers win), he has one goal.

In the end…

The Rangers have two sets of back-to-back games in a space of six days, starting with their Tuesday night contest against the Islanders.  As emotional as games in that rivalry can be, especially since it is the last Ranger visit to Nassau Coliseum, Ranger coach Alain Vigneault might choose Mackenzie Skapski to start in goal against Washington if Talbot plays against the Islanders.  Skapski is in his first year of pro hockey after four years in Canadian juniors.  He was 12-7-3 with Hartford in the AHL (2.38/.914/2 shutouts), but he has just one NHL appearance, that a 24-save effort in a 3-1 Ranger win over Buffalo on February 20th.  Then again, with the Rangers playing Buffalo and Florida in the weekend back-to-back, Skapski might be held back for one of those games.

Whoever is in goal for the Rangers, the Caps have to deal with some unpleasant recent history against this team.  There is a special urgency in this in that the Caps might face this team (again!) in either the first or second round of the post season.  It will be the first of three meetings between the clubs over the next month, perhaps providing a glimpse of what to expect if the teams should meet in the playoffs.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 22

After a detour into winless territory in Week 21, the Washington Capitals returned to winning ways in Week 22.  They took advantage of struggling teams and might have had a perfect week but for a something less than perfect third period against the Minnesota Wild.   

Record: 3-1-0

The Caps have been alternating dominating and losing weeks lately.  In Week 18 they were 3-1-0.  They followed that up with a 1-2-0 record in Week 19, 4-0-0 in Week 20, and 0-3-0 in Week 21.  It continued in Week 22, the Caps finishing a four-game week going 3-1-0.  The three wins allowed the Caps to inch just a bit closer to the Metropolitan Division leading New York Islanders, closing the gap from eight points at the beginning of the week to six.  They halved their deficit with the New York Rangers for second place, from six points to three, an important consideration since the Rangers hold four games in hand over the Caps at the end of Week 22 and face Washington in Week 23.

Offense:  4.00/game (season: 2.94/game; rank: 6^th)

The scorers scored (Alex Ovechkin had five goals), the playmakers made plays (Nicklas Backstrom had five assists), the new guys contributed (Curtis Glencross had four points, Tim Gleason had one), and the Caps got a healthy dose of contributions all around.  Eight players shared in the 16 goals for the week; 18 players recorded points.  It was a healthy week from a shooting percentage perspective, the Caps finishing Week 22 with 16 goals on 135 shots (including a pair of empty net goals). 

It was not all unicorns and accordions, though.  The Caps took advantage of poor defensive teams, scoring four goals against the league’s 25^th-ranked team in scoring defense (Toronto), five against the 26^th-ranked team (Columbus), and six against the league’s worst team in scoring defense (Buffalo).  They managed just one goal against Minnesota, a team with a middle-of-the-road scoring defense (12^th at week’s end) but one whose goaltender – Devan Dubnyk – was stopping pucks at an impressive rate (14-2-1, 1.52, .944, four shutouts in 17 games prior to his meeting the Caps).  The Caps solved Dubnyk just once on 25 shots.  Still, it was a good week on the offensive side of the puck.

Defense: 1.50/game (season: 2.40/game; rank: 6^th)

Shots against had become a bit of an issue with the Caps in the 2015 portion of the season.  In 16 of 27 games coming into this week the Caps had allowed 30 or more shots on goal after allowing 30 or more shots in 12 of 36 games in the 2014 portion of this season.  In Week 22 the Caps allowed 30 or more shots in each of the first three games of the week. 

Those first three games make a point.  Week 22 was in two distinct parts when it came to possession.  There were those first three games against Toronto, Columbus, and Minnesota; and there was the fourth game of the week, a 6-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres.  If one looked at the four games overall, the Caps had a pretty good week.  Their Corsi-for/Fenwick-for percentages at 5-on-5 were 53.5/55.6, and they were just about as good in close score situations: 54.2/56.1.  In those first three games, though, the numbers did not look quite as good, Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages of 47.7/50.5, respectively; and the close score values were similar: 48.2/51.4.

Then there was the last game of the week against the Buffalo Sabres.  By the time the 6-1 dismantling of the Sabres was complete, the Caps set a season high in total shot attempts (84) while limiting Buffalo to the fifth-fewest number of shot attempts allowed this season (43).  The Corsi plus-41 was a season high, as was the overall Corsi-for percentage (66.1).  It did not get better for the Sabres at 5-on-5, where the Caps enjoyed a Corsi plus-37 and a Corsi-for percentage of 67.6 (another season high).  It was hardly surprising that the Caps enjoyed a 45-17 shot advantage, the 17 shots allowed being a season low for the Caps, the first and only time this season Washington allowed fewer than 20 shots on goal.

Goaltending: 1.51 / .945 / 1 shutout (season: 2.34 / .918 / 7 shutouts)

Week 22 was another week in which Braden Holtby took all the available minutes in goal.  It was a lot more successful week than he had in Week 21.  He was solid in all three periods, even if he did suffer a slippage in save percentage over the course of the three periods for the week.  Holtby was 33-for-34 in the first periods of games for the week (.971), 33-for-35 in the second periods (.943), and 37-for-40 in the third periods (.925). 

It was two goals on four shots over a 5:09 stretch of the third period that did him and the Caps in as Minnesota turned a 1-0 Caps lead into a 2-1 win over the Caps, only the second time this season that the Caps lost a game in regulation when scoring first and the second time that the Caps lost in regulation when taking a lead into the third period.  Overall, though, it was the kind of week that was just the thing to make it a 3-1-0 week for the Caps.

Power Play: 5-for-8 / 62.5 percent (season: 24.9 percent; rank: 2^nd)

Week 22 might have been the best week of the season for the Capitals’ power play.  Not only was the 62.5 percent conversion rate the best for the season, the five goals (on only eight opportunities) was the second highest goal total of the season (the Caps had six goals on 17 chances in Week 20).  It was not as if it was entirely “The Alex Ovechkin Show,” either.  Ovechkin had two goals and an assist on the power play to lead the Caps in goals and points on the man advantage for the week, but three other Caps recorded power play goals (Curtis Glencross, Joel Ward, and Marcus Johansson), and 11 players (including Ovechkin) recorded points.

The Caps ran roughshod over opponents on the power play, once they got the opportunity.  Washington enjoyed only two power play opportunities against Toronto and Columbus, then had only one against Minnesota.  They broke out for three against Buffalo to end the week.  In those eight opportunities, the Caps scored those five goals on 21 shots in just 11:14 of power play ice time.  Even against the Wild, on a single opportunity, the Caps scored a goal in just 16 seconds of power play time.  Scoring in all four games made for the longest streak of games in which the Caps scored at least one power play goal since they had a four-game streak (also 5-for-8), November 22-29.

Penalty Killing: 10-for-11 / 90.9 percent (season: 81.6 percent; rank: 15^th)

The other side of the special teams had a fine week as well.  It was part of an odd alternating week-to week performance that saw the Caps finish Week 19 at 60.0 percent, then followed that up with a 100.0 percent week and a 75.0 percent week before going over 90 percent in Week 22.

Columbus was the only club to solve the Caps on the power play this week in what was an odd game.  Despite the teams committing a combined 21 penalties (including one that resulted in a penalty shot for the Blue Jackets), the teams combined for only four power plays, two for each and each team scoring once.  The Columbus power play goal by Scott Hartnell nine minutes into the third period marked the third time in the game that the Blue Jackets narrowed a two-goal Caps lead to a single goal, but it was as close as they got in a 5-3 Caps win.

It was an efficient penalty kill for the Caps, particularly in the second half of the week.  Overall the Caps held their four opponents to one goal on 13 shots in 20:03 of shorthanded ice time.  Against Minnesota and Buffalo, they shut both teams out on five power plays, holding each team to one power play shot in a total of 9:13 of ice time.

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 11-5 / plus-6 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.09; rank: 13^th)

The Caps opened the week getting out to 2-0 leads against Toronto and Columbus, doing all their damage at even strength. It was precisely the sort of hole in which the Caps would like to place opponents, forcing them to take chances and opening up the ice for counterattacks.  On the other hand, the Caps’ inability to solve Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk at even strength (0-for-23 shooting) put them in a bind in trying to hold off the Wild in a game that the Caps lost in the third period.  It was a different sort of game altogether for the Caps against the Sabres to end the week.  Spotting the Sabres an early even strength goal, the Caps tied the game with an even strength strike just 2:40 after the Sabres’ goal, then took the lead they would not relinquish five minutes into the second period on a even strength goal.  Finishing the week scoring more than twice as many even strength goals as their opponents is probably not a sustainable outcome, but it is the kind one might expect when facing teams that struggle keeping the puck out of the net.

Faceoffs: 139-250 / 55.6 percent (season: 51.5% / rank: 10^th)

It was a very good week in the circle, a dominating one in the ends.  The Caps won 50 of 83 draws in the offensive zone (60.2 percent) and 49 of 83 in the defensive end (59.0 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom and Eric Fehr were especially successful in the offensive end, going 22-for-31 (71.0 percent) and 10-for-16 (62.5 percent), respectively, as the players taking the most offensive zone draws for the week.  The same two were big in the defensive zone as well, Backstrom going 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) and Fehr going 13-for-20 (65.0 percent).  To the defensive zone success we can add Jay Beagle, who was 13-for-22 in his own end (59.1 percent).  Even Evgeny Kuznetsov, the only Cap taking more than ten draws to finish under 50 percent for the week (45.9), was 50 percent or better in the offensive end (7-for-14) and the defensive end (6-for-12).

Goals by Period:

Week 22 was one of balance in period-by-period scoring for the Caps.  Five goals in the first period, five in the second, and six in the third provided that balance.  It was failing to score in the third period and allowing a pair that kept the Caps from a perfect week.  It is part of a balance that the Caps have achieved over the course of the season.  Washington is in the top ten in goals scored in the first period (56/T-9^th), in the second period (71/5^th), and the third period (66^th/10^th).  They are one goal allowed in the second period from being in the top ten in fewest goals allowed in each of the three periods as well – 43 in the first period (6^th), 58 in the second period (T-11^th), and 54 in the third period (9^th).

In the end…

At this point in the season, it appears unlikely that the Caps will jump over three teams in the Metropolitan Division to take the division crown.  A six-point deficit with 15 games to play is too much, given as well as the other teams ahead of them are playing.  That argues for tending to one’s own business without undue attention being paid to the scoreboard, and the Caps did a fine job of that in Week 22.  Washington did a good job of dealing with Toronto, Columbus, and Buffalo – struggling teams all – in a business-like fashion.  Against Minnesota there might have been a fourth win had Marcus Johansson been a bit luckier shooting the puck (two times beating Devan Dubnyk only to hit iron). Taking the long view, the Caps are 26-11-6 since they were at 10-10-4 on December 2^nd.  That is a 111-point pace over a full season.  They have had only two losing weeks (on a standings points basis) in their last 16 weeks, only four in 22 weeks this season.  The Capitals are the “tortoise” more than the “hare,” and heading into a post-season that could last four series and two months, that might be the better of the two to be.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (5-2-7, plus-3, 22 SOG, 43 shot attempts, five hits, 2 GWG)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (3-1-0, 1.51, .945, one shutout)
• Third Star: Curtis Glencross (2-2-4, even, seven SOG, seven hits, two blocked shots)