The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 79: Capitals at Senators, April 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Seventy-eight down, four to go.  And this, the 79^th game of the season, might be the most meaningful of them all for the Washington Capitals to date.  The Caps take the ice for the middle game of their last road trip of the regular season in Ottawa, where they will face the Senators at Canadian Tire Center.  If the Capitals win in regulation, they secure a playoff spot (they will have an eight-point lead over the ninth-place Senators, with Ottawa having four games left to play, but they cannot catch the Caps in regulation/overtime wins, the first tie-breaker).

Conversely, a loss by the Senators, especially in overtime, would put their post season chances on life support.  They would trail the Boston Bruins by three points in the event of a loss in regulation with four games to play.  They could catch the Bruins in regulation/overtime wins, and then the arcane rules governing head-to-head points and games played in which city take over.  If it comes to this tie-breaker, Ottawa would have the edge, but we would be talking long shots for the Senators.

Ottawa is not being done any favors catching the Caps at this point in the schedule.  Washington is 7-2-0 in their last nine games and is on a three-game winning streak.  In that nine-game run the Caps have outscored their opponents, 23-18, and their special teams have been quite efficient.  The power play is 7-for-22 (31.8 percent), while the penalty kill is 25-for-28 (89.3 percent).  Washington is also 5-1-0 in their last six road games.

Meanwhile, the Senators have hit a rough patch of road after putting together a seven-game winning streak (and a more extended 15-1-1 run from February 18^th through March 23^rd).  The Senators lost three in a row after that streak before rebounding with a pair of wins against division rivals Detroit and Tampa Bay earlier this week.  The difference between the three losses and the two wins was scoring defense.  Ottawa allowed 13 goals in losing to the Rangers (5-1), Toronto (4-3 in overtime), and Florida (4-2), while holding Detroit and Tampa Bay to single goals in a pair of 2-1 overtime wins.

And that bring us to goaltender Andrew Hammond.  “The Hamburglar” has come out of nowhere to capture the hearts and minds of Ottawa fans.  An undrafted free agent signed to a two-year deal by the Senators in 2013 after he finished a four-year career at Bowling Green State University, he won 25 games for the Senators’ AHL affiliate in Binghamton in 2013-2014.  He did get one game with the big club in that season, and it might have offered just a hint of things to come.  After the Detroit Red Wings lit up Robin Lehner for six goals on 15 shots on February 27, 2014, Hammond made his NHL debut and stopped all 11 shots he faced in a 6-1 Senators loss. 

Hammond started the 2014-2015 season in Binghamton and, frankly, was not particularly impressive.  In 25 games he was 7-13-2, 3.51, .898, with two shutouts.  Nevertheless, when starter Craig Anderson went out with a hand injury in late January, Hammond was recalled.  He did not make his season debut until February 16^th, again taking mop-up duty in place of Lehner after the latter allowed four goals on 31 shots in 40 minutes of a 6-3 loss to Carolina.  It was not an auspicious debut for Hammond, who allowed two goals on five shots.

Since then, however, Hammond has been nothing short of amazing.  In 18 appearances since that stint against Carolina, he is 16-1-1, 1.72, .943, with two shutouts.  Only three times in those 18 appearances has he allowed more than two goals, although all of them have come in his last six games.  Still, Hammond allowed two or fewer goals in his first 12 games, tying an NHL record set by Boston’s Frank Brimsek in the 1938-1939 season.  Hammond went on to earn points in 15 straight games, falling one game shot of the record to start a career set by Patrick Lalime in 1996-1997.  If he gets the start, Hammond will be making his first appearance against Washington.

On offense, no one has made the sort of splash Hammond has in goal, relying more on balance to ice the league’s 12^th ranked team in scoring offense.  Only two Senators have more than 20 goals this season – Mike Hoffman (26) and Kyle Turris (22).  Hoffman had a big start to the season recording his 20^th goal in his 52^nd game, putting him on a 32-goal pace.  In his last 22 games, though, the pace has fallen off.  In those last 22 games Hoffman has six goals, only three in his last 17 contests, about half the goal-scoring pace he had over those first 52 games.  He has two career appearances against Washington, both of them this year.  He has one assist.

Turris is in his fourth season with the Senators and has demonstrated himself to be a reliable 20-goal scorer.  In 49 games with Ottawa in 2011-2012, after coming in trade from Phoenix, he had 12 goals in 49 games (a 20.1 goal pace).  He followed that up with 12 goals in 48 games in 2012-2013 (20.5), 26 goals in 82 games last season, and 22 goals in 77 games this season.  His goal scoring has been a bit bumpy lately, though.  After going 11 games with only two goals, he recorded two in consecutive games against Boston and Toronto, including the game-winner in a 5-3 win over the Maple Leafs.  In his last six games, he has just one goal to his credit.  In ten career games against the Caps, he is 5-2-7, plus-9.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  Ottawa’s offense is like the old style diesel engine.  It takes a while to warm up.  Only six teams have scored fewer goals in the first period than the Senators (53), but Ottawa ranks tenth overall in second period goals scored (75) and fifth in third period goals scored (83).

2.  The Senators are the only team in the NHL not to have been shut out this season.  Last year they were shut out only twice (only three teams were shut out fewer times).  You might beat the Senators, but they will turn on the lamp.

3.  Ottawa is fifth in the league in fighting majors (32).  None of them have been against the Caps this season.

4.  If the Senators do not make it to the post season, they might point to their ability to take and hold leads as a culprit.  Only 21 times in 77 games have they scored first, and they have only 14 wins in those games.  Only four teams have fewer wins when taking a lead, and Ottawa has the seventh worst winning percentage in those games.

5.  Ottawa is a bottom-half ranking team, possession-wise.  The Senators rank 18^th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (50.3), 21^st in close score situations (49.4).  Their corresponding rankings in Fenwick-for percentage are 22^nd (48.5) and 22^nd (47.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Gimmick has been an interesting experience for the Caps in one respect.  Washington has participated in only nine trick shot competitions, only six teams have been in fewer.  However, only four teams have scored more goals in the freestyle phase than the 16 scored by the Caps.

2.  One-goal games have become commonplace in the Caps’ experience.  In 78 games they have 44 such decisions.  Only Florida (47) and Nashville (45) have more.  Unfortunately, the Caps rank only 17^th in winning percentage in such games.

3.  When Washington beat Montreal on Thursday, it was only the second time this season that the Caps won a game when trailing at the second intermission.  As it is, there are still only two teams with fewer wins when trailing after 40 minutes (Winnipeg has one win, Pittsburgh has none).

4.  When the Caps blocked 30 shots in Montreal on Thursday they jumped into sixth place in blocked shots in road games, just two behind Columbus for fifth place.  That might sound nice, but it might not be the place to be.  The teams ahead of the Caps include, in addition to the Blue Jackets, Winnipeg, Buffalo, Los Angeles, and the Islanders.  Three of those teams will not make the playoffs, and another will just make it.  Only the Islanders can be seen among them as a strong team.

5.  The Caps used to be a free-wheeling offensive team.  Not so much these days.  Washington ranks 21st overall in total shot attempts, for and against, at five-on-five per game (86.3).  That is largely a product of limiting opponents’ attempts.  The Caps have allowed the 10^th fewest opponent shot attempts per game at 5-on-5 (42.1; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Mark Stone

The particulars of Mark Stone’s resume do not leap off the page – a sixth-round draft pick (178^th overall) in 2010, a pair of seasons in the AHL scoring 15 goals in each, 23 games spread over two seasons with the Senators scoring a total of four goals.  This season, however, Stone had taken a leap forward.  He has 20 goals in 75 games, tied with Erik Karlsson for third on the club.  Ten of them have come on the power play.  Five of his goals are game-winners.  While not a top-end goal scorer, Stone has provided consistent secondary scoring.  His goals are spread reasonably evenly by month, a low of two in October, a high of four in January and March.  He has an assist in two career games against Washington.

Washington: Tom Wilson

Only four players among the 211 members of the 2012 draft class have played in more games than the Capitals’ Tom Wilson (147).  Thirteen of those players (including six defensemen) have recorded more goals than the seven Wilson has on his resume to date.  On the other hand, his 316 penalty minutes is almost four times the number recorded by his closest pursuer in that statistic (Jacob Trouba: 85).  It might have been reasonable to expect that the physical aspect of the game would express itself in Wilson’s game sooner than would his offensive game.  And shuttling between the top line and the fourth line has not been conducive to developing that offensive game, either.  Nevertheless, the Capitals are counting on Wilson becoming a contributor, and with the playoffs about to begin, seeing that progress would be welcome.  In five career games against Ottawa, Wilson is 0-1-1, even.

In the end…

This game presents an opportunity for the Caps to deliver a mortal would to the Senators’ playoff hopes while clinching a spot for themselves.  It is the sort of game that will provide a look at the sort of team the Caps have, attitude-wise, heading to the post season.  Will they skate into the Senators’ barn, take their lunch, and eat it in front of them?  Or, will they come up short against a desperate team with what has been a hot goalie the past two months?  This could be among the most entertaining games of the year for Caps fans seeing just what sort of team we have here.

Capitals 3 – Senators 2

Down the Home Stretch -- April 3 Update

We are getting down to the end of it, and while the differences between the teams aren't shrinking, the games left are.  Good news for the Caps; bad news for the Senators.

(green denotes playoff-eligible):

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 78: Capitals 5 - Canadiens 4 (OT/Gimmick)

We encountered some technical difficulties this morning that rendered us unable to post our usual summary of the Caps (Cheerless was whittling a new keyboard for himself, lost his grip on the knife, and whipped the knife right into the circuit breaker box, cutting off all the power).  By now you have probably digested last night's thrilling trick shot win over the Canadiens, but maybe you'd like some tidbits to snack on this afternoon...

-- Alex Ovechkin’s two goals gave him 52 for the season, breaking the franchise mark of 472 held by Peter Bondra.  The 52 goals ties him fifth place in franchise history for most goals in a season (a place he occupies with Bondra, who did it twice, and himself, achieved in his rookie season of 2005-2006).

-- Ovechkin’s two power play goals broke a tie with Ray Bourque for 28^th place all time in that category.  He is now tied with Jarome Iginla in 27^th place with 175 career power play goals.

-- A hat trick of Ovechkin facts.  The two goals made it his 100the career multi-goal game.  Since he came into the league in 2005-2006, no one has more.  No one is within 30 games of him (Jarome Iginla: 66).  Fifteen of those multi-goal games have come this season, almost twice as many as his closes pursuers (Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin: 8)

-- John Carlson had three assists, giving him 40 on the season.  It is the 22nd time in franchise history that a defenseman reached the 40-assist mark, and he is the 11^th defenseman to do it for the Caps. 

It was the first time Carlson recorded three assists in a game since posting three helpers on December 5, 2011 in a 5-4 loss to the Florida Panthers.

-- Joel Ward had his second two-goal game of the season, the first one coming on October 25th against Calgary.  Both of his two-goal games have come on the road.  Ward has five multi-goal games with the Caps, four of them coming on the road.

-- Braden Holtby’s assist on Ovechkin’s first goal was his second assist of the season.  No, it’s not a record.  Olaf Kolzig had three assists in consecutive seasons (2005-2006 and 2006-2007); Jose Theodore had three assists in 2008-2009.

-- Each team had more faceoffs than shot attempts. While sharing a total of 75 draws, the Caps had only 49 shot attempts, while the Canadiens had 65 shot attempts.  The Caps blocked 30 shots, 23 of them by the defense, led by Matt Niskanen with six.

-- OK, another Ovechkin fact…he now has 35 goals in 41 games in the 2015 portion of the season.  For the mathematically challenged, that is a 70-goal pace over half a season.

-- Michael Latta played only one shift after the 10:42 mark of the second period.  Ditto, Tom Wilson

-- Carlson’s 26:48 in ice time was a season high for him, eclipsing the 26”16 he skated in a 4-3 Gimmick win over Buffalo on March 16th.

-- Barry Trotz became the 13th coach in NHL history to win 600 regular season games in his coaching career.   Among active coaches, only Joel Quenneville (753), Ken Hitchcock (704), and Lindy Ruff (648) have more.

In the end…

The goals from Ovechkin are nice, but a 7-2-0 record in the Caps’ last nine games is better.  Better still is jumping into second place in the Metropolitan Division (they hold a tie-breaker over the Islanders, more points won in head-to-head games).  The win in Montreal sets up Saturday’s game against Ottawa as a potential playoff-clinching game for the Caps, and in so doing could all but dash the dimming hopes of the Senators for a playoff spot.  Now THAT’S must-see TV.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 78: Capitals at Canadiens, April 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head into the last ten days of the regular season with the first game of a three-game road trip on Thursday night.  The Montreal Canadiens, currently sitting on top of the Atlantic Division and one point behind the New York Rangers for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, will host the Caps at Bell Centre.

The Capitals were 4-1-0 on the road in March, beating playoff-eligible teams along the way (Minnesota Wild and the New York Rangers) while losing to one (Winnipeg Jets).  The Caps are one of five teams in the East with 20 or more road wins this season, the first time that the Caps have posted a 20-win season on the road since recording 23 road wins in 2010-2011.

On the other side, the Canadiens were 3-2-1 at home in March, which was something of a fall off, given that they are still second in the East in standings points earned at home this season (55 points/25-9-5).  Their 25 wins at home ranks second in the East (Tampa Bay: 30), and their nine losses in regulation time at Bell Centre is tied for the third-fewest such losses at home in the East this season (with Philadelphia).

The big scorers at home for the Canadiens at home in March include a couple of the usual suspects.  Max Pacioretty had five goals at Bell Centre for the month (5-2-7), which should not be especially surprising.  His 21 goals at Bell Centre this season is tied for second in the league in home goal scoring (with Steven Stamkos, behind Alex Ovechkin with 24).  And what is it with Canadians and hamburgers these days, anyway? 

Pacioretty is 2-6-8, even, in 19 career games against Washington.

Tomas Plekanec also finds himself among the top scorers for the Canadiens at Bell Centre in March, going 1-5-6.  He has been a model of consistency overall for the past two months.  In 30 games since January 31st, Plekanec has not gone more than two games without a point overall (9-13-22).  One thing for Caps fans to note is that 13 of his 22 goals overall this season have come in the third periods of games, including a game-tying goal with 9:29 in regulation of what would be a 2-1 trick shot win on Opening Night in Washington against the Caps.  Plekanec is 14-14-28, plus-5, in 36 career games against the Capitals.

Carey Price has largely put to rest any thoughts that any other goalie will win the Vezina Trophy this season.  At the moment, Price is a league leader in:

• Wins : 41 (1st)
• Goals Against Average: 1.92 (1st)
• Save Percentage: .936 (1st)
• Shutouts: 9 (T-1st)
• Minutes: 3,725 (5th)
• Save Percentage (even strength): .942 (1st; minimum: 20 appearances)
• Save Percentage/Shootouts: .813 (5th; minimum: 15 shots faced)

There do appear to be, however, the smallest cracks that seem to be showing up in his game.  In December, Price was 7-4-0, 1.93, .937.  In January those numbers were 7-1-1, 1.53, .951, and he added two shutouts.  In February it was more of the same: 9-1-1, 1.34, .949, and two more shutouts.

In March, however, those small cracks might have opened.  Price was 5-5-2, 2.08, .935, with three shutouts, and in his last eight appearances he is 4-3-1, 2.24, .929, with two shutouts, having allowed three or more goals four times in those eight games.  It is not that he has suddenly lost the ability to stop pucks, but he has been somewhat more mortal in his performances over the last three weeks.  Price is 5-9-3, 3.04, .902, with one shutout in 17 career appearances against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Of the 16 teams currently eligible for the playoffs, Montreal has the worst scoring offense (2.56 goals per game). However, they rank eighth of those 16 teams in goal differential per game (0.34).  Thank you, Carey Price.

2.  Montreal has allowed the fewest 5-on-5 goals in the league this season (117).

3.  The Canadiens do not seem to play games close.  Only four teams have played fewer one-goal games than the 32 played by Montreal (San Jose and New Jersey have 31; Toronto has 29, and Vancouver has 28).

4.  Scoring first could loom large in this game.  Montreal has the second best winning percentage in the league when scoring the game’s first goal (.838/31-3-3), trailing only the Capitals (.854/35-2-4).

5.  Looking at possession numbers, the Canadiens do not have quite the profile of a playoff team.  They rank 23^rd in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.3) and 21^st in close-score situations.  Their Fenwick-for numbers are hardly better – 22^nd overall (48.6) and 18^th in close score situations (50.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Only four teams have more wins this season than the Caps (24) when leading after one period (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers have 25; Minnesota has 27), and the Caps are fourth in winning percentage in such games (.857/24-2-2).

2.  If Braden Holtby was to run the table in his last five games he would be in some rarified air.  Since the NHL went to an 82-game schedule in 1995-1996, only five goalies have won 43 or more games, accomplished a total of 11 times (Martin Brodeur: 6; Evgeny Nabokov: 2; Kiikka Kiprusoff: 1; Roberto Luongo: 1; Pekka Rinne: 1).  As it is, he is one of 24 goalies to have won 38 or more games since the league went to the 82-game schedule (accomplished a total of 51 times).

3.  In the ten seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout, 15 players in the NHL have recorded 400 or more assists.  Of that group, only two players have not played in all ten seasons – Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins (434 assists in nine seasons) and Nicklas Backstrom (422 assists in eight seasons).  Of that group of 15, Backstrom and Malkin are tied for fourth in assists per game, trailing only Sidney Crosby, Joe Thornton, and Henrik Sedin.

4.  Last season the Capitals had three defensemen with 15 or more points: Mike Green (38), John Carlson (37) and Karl Alzner (18).  This season they have five: Carlson (48), Green (42), Matt Niskanen (29), Alzner (21), and Brooks Orpik (15).  Health might be a factor; the Caps have four defensemen having appeared in more than 70 games thus far (Carlson, Niskanen, Alzner, and Orpik), and Green will hit that mark if he appears in three more games.  Last season the Caps had three defensemen reach 70 games: Carlson (82), Alzner (82) and Green (70).

5.  Washington has been hit with the fifth highest total of minor penalties this season (301).  Last season the had the ninth-highest total (314).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Andrei Markov

In the storied history of the Montreal Canadiens, only five defensemen have recorded 400 or more points in their career in Montreal.  Larry Robinson (883), Guy Lapointe (572), Doug Harvey (447), and Serge Savard (412) all won Stanley Cups, all went to the Hall of Fame.  The fifth defenseman in this group is Andrei Markov, who ranks third on that list with 487 points.  Markov is one of only six defensemen to have dressed for 800 or more games for the bleu, blanc, et rouge (Robinson, Savard, Harvey, Patrice Brisebois, and Tom Johnson being the others).

P.K. Subban gets most of the attention on the Montreal blue line, both from the media and from opponents, but Markov has been a formidable force for the Canadiens for 14 seasons (and counting).  He also happens to be Montreal’s nominee for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy, given to the National Hockey League player who “best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey.”  Markov comes into this game with points in three straight games overall (1-2-3, even) and had three assists in six home games in March.  Markov is 1-19-20, plus-14 in 40 career games against Washington.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin has 33 goals in 40 games since the calendar turned over to 2015.  If he had not scored a goal in the 2014 portion of the season, he would still rank ninth overall in goals and would be a hat trick out of fifth.  That goal-scoring pace (a 68-goal pace over 82 games since January 1st), plus the fact that he is tied for second in points and has improved his plus-minus by 46 points over last year’s disastrous minus-35, has allowed Ovechkin to elbow his way into the conversation for the Hart Trophy.

And, further buttressing his case, he has not padded his stats against Punch and Judy teams.  In 35 games this season against teams currently playoff-eligible, Ovechkin is 26-12-38, plus-3, a 61-28-89, plus-7 rate per 82 games.  He has goals against 11 of those 15 palyoff-eligible teams; Montreal and Detroit are the only playoff-eligible teams in the East against which he does not have a goal this season.  Ovechkin is 20-16-36, plus-5, in 35 career games against the Canadiens.

In the end…

At the moment, this is a game that previews the Round 1 matchup in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.  With the Canadiens, Lightning, and Rangers fighting for seeding at the top of the Conference, and the Caps battling Pittsburgh, the Islanders, and Detroit for seeding in the next tier of contenders, the matchup situation is fluid.  Nevertheless, this is another of those benchmark games that have been sprinkled through the Caps’ schedule the last month or so.  Since the All-Star break, the Caps are 4-1-1 on the road against playoff-eligible teams overall, 2-0-1 against Eastern Conference playoff eligibles. The road has not been an intimidating place for the Capitals.

Capitals 3 – Canadiens 2

 

Down the Home Stretch: April 1 Update

Not much has changed since the last update.  All three contenders for the two wild-card playoff spots won last night.  The last ten days will be a nail-biting exercise, especially since the Caps now go on the road for three treacherous games.

(green denotes playoff-eligible)

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 77: Capitals 4 - Hurricanes 2

It was a record-setting night at Verizon Center on Tuesday as the Washington Capitals doubled up on the Carolina Hurricanes, 4-2.  The immediate concern for the Capitals was to maintain their edge over the Boston Bruins and the Ottawa Senators for one of the two wild card spots in the post season, and the win allowed the Caps to keep pace with both of their pursuers, each winning their own game on Tuesday night.

It was made possible in part by Alex Ovechkin, who scored his 50^th goal of the season in the first period and who added an assist on an insurance goal in the second period.  It got started, though, in the game’s third minute on a fluky play.  Mike Green chipped a puck from the low slot in front of his own net to get the Caps started up ice on a three-man rush.  Curtis Glencross took the Green pass and moved it to Tom Wilson on his right exiting the Caps’ zone.  Wilson fed the puck back to Glencross, who relayed it to Green filling in on the left.  Green skated down the left wing wall and from the far edge of the left wing circle threw a pass in front of the Carolina net.  The puck did not reach its intended target, instead clipping the skate of Hurricane defenseman Justin Faulk and bending past goalie Cam Ward to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 2:46 into the game.

Less than nine minutes later it was record-setting time.  Matt Niskanen started the Caps out of their end with a pass to Evgeny Kuznetsov skating up the middle.  Kuznetsov skated through center ice, backing off the Carolina defense until he entered the offensive zone.  From the middle he backhanded a pass to Alex Ovechkin skating down the left wing.  The puck was muffled by the stick of Alexander Semin, but it only had the effect of teeing up a wrist shot by Ovechkin that beat Ward cleanly to the far side.  The goal was Ovechkin’s 50^th, the sixth time in ten seasons he reached that mark, the sixth player in NHL history to score 50 or more goals in a season six or more times.

It might have been the start of a rout for the Capitals, but Carolina escaped the first period without any further damage done.  Then, the Hurricanes did some damage of their own by dominating the first half of the second period.  Nathan Gerbe halved the Capitals’ lead five minutes into the period.  Gerbe and Alexander Semin were off on a 2-on-1 break that looked as if it fell apart when Semin skated the puck in too deep to the left of goalie Braden Holtby.  Semin tried to reach back and stuff the puck past Holtby from below the goal line, but the puck slid out the other side to Gerbe low on the left side.  Gerbe snapped a backhand past two Capitals skaters trying to cover for Holtby, who was sprawled at the post on the far side, and it was 2-1.

Eric Staal tied the game in the 11^th minute by slamming a rebound of a Chris Terry shot past Holtby, and things were getting quiet at Verizon Center.  Carlina could not get the lead goal, though, and it was the Caps to stole the momentum in the last half of the period.  Jason Chimera collected a loose puck at the Carolina blue line with speed.  As he skated down the right wing wall he flicked a backhand pass past defenseman Brett Bellemore to the front of the Carolina net.  Brooks Laich, skating hard to the front of the net, got to the top of the crease just in time to redirect the puck past Ward at the 17:06 mark to give the Caps the lead they would not relinquish.

Washington was not done, though.  Less than 90 seconds later the Caps scored on what looked like an instant replay of the Laich goal.  This time it was Ovechkin collecting the loose puck at the Carolina line and skating down the right wing wall.  As he sped down the flank he sent a pass across and through three Hurricane defenders to the far side of the Hurricane crease.  Bellemore was the third Hurricane defender on that play, and it looked as if he would be able to stop the pass with his stick, but the puck was left between his skates.  Joel Ward pounced, poking the puck from between Bellemore’s skates and past Ward to make it 4-2 with just 1:32 left in the period.

After that, the Caps were in lock down mode against the Hurricanes for the third period.  They managed only one shot against Ward in the final 20 minutes, but they allowed only five shots to reach Holtby, none of them finding paydirt.  The Caps skated off with a 4-2 win and maintained their three-point lead over the Boston Bruins for the first wild card playoff spot.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin joined Wayne Grertzky, Mike Bossy, Marcel Dionne, Guy Lafleur, and Mario Lemieux as the sixth player to record six or more 50-goal seasons in a career in the NHL.  His goal was his 472nd of his career, tying Peter Bondra for the franchise record.  He did it in his 755th game, an average of 51 goals per 82 games over his career.  Bondra scored his 472 goals in 961 games, an average of 40 goals per 82 games in setting the record.

-- Ovechkin’s assist on Joel Ward’s goal was his 419^th as a Capital, passing Michal Pivonka for second place in franchise history.  Nicklas Backstrom is the franchise record-holder with 422.  The two points he recorded left Ovechkin tied for second in the league scoring race with the New York Islanders’ John Tavares and two points behind Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby for the league lead.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had a pair of assists and is on something of a scoring run of his own. In his last 12 games he is 4-6-10, plus-4.

-- Mike Green had a goal and an assist for his 12^th multi-point game of the season.  Only three defensemen – Roman Josi (15), Erik Karlsson (14), and Kris Letang (13) – have more.

-- The win was the Caps’ 38^th in regulation or overtime, tying them with the Islanders and the Penguins for second in the Metropolitan Division behind the New York Rangers (44).

-- Tim Gleason was a plus-3 in his first appearance against his old club, the first time this season he reached a plus-3 for a single game.  It was the first time he was plus-3 or better for a game since going plus-3 for Carolina in a 5-3 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on April 20, 2013.

-- Mike Green was a plus-3, he reaching that mark for the first time this season as well.  His last plus-3 effort also came against the Philadelphia Flyers and also came in a loss, a 5-4 overtime loss to the Flyers last March 2nd.

-- Carolina came into the game as the least penalized team in the league (6.9 minutes per game), and they finished the game as the least penalized team in the league (6.8 minutes per game).  The Hurricanes were not whistled for a single penalty.  It was the fourth time this season that the Hurricanes did not face an opponent’s power play, and it was the second time this season that the Capitals were not awarded a power play, the only other time taking place in St. Louis against the Blues in a 4-1 loss on November 15th.  It was the first time that the Capitals were shutout on power play opportunities at home since going without one in a 1-0 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on March 4, 2012.

-- Jason Chimera’s assist made it points in consecutive games for the first time in almost three months.  The last time he recorded points in consecutive games was January 12-14, an assist in a 2-1 win over Colorado and the game’s only goal in a 1-0 win over Philadelphia.

-- Braden Holtby won his 38th game of the season.  He stands alone with the second-highest win total for a goaltender in franchise history.  Only Olaf Kolzig (41 in 1999-2000, a Vezina Trophy-winning season) stands in front of him.  Holtby is within two wins of 100 for his career.

In the end…

A good win, a necessary win, a win that a team trying to fend off playoff challengers needs to have against an also-ran opponent.  It was not as convincing a win as that over the Rangers on Sunday, but Carolina is not quite as bad as their record, either, being a better possession team than their wins and losses would suggest.  What the Caps had that the Hurricanes did not was, of course, the guy who scores 50 goals as a regular occurrence on his resume.  They also did not have a defense that could clamp down when need be as the Caps did in the third period. 

Things will get harder for the Caps now, as they face five opponents in their last five games that are either in the post season or fighting for position.  And, they get to go on the road for three games to try to clinch one of those last spots.  Hey, you didn’t think this would be easy, did you?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 77: Hurricanes at Capitals, March 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off their gobsmacking of the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon, the Washington Capitals return home to Verizon Center to host the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night.  The Caps will be looking to free themselves of the alternative wins and losses over their last five games (3-2-0) at the Hurricane’s expense, while Carolina will be looking to extend their points streak to four games (2-0-1 in their last three contests).

The three-game points streak for Carolina is a case of too little, too late. March has been a relentless journey of misfortune for the Hurricanes, who have a 4-6-4 record as they prepare for their last game of the month.  In those 14 games to date this month Carolina has been outscored by a 40-32 margin.  Their power play has the look of effectiveness – 8-for-39 (20.5 percent) – but five of those eight goals came in consecutive games against Edmonton and Columbus, teams that rank 28^th and 24^th in penalty killing effectiveness, respectively.  The penalty kill has had two entirely different blocks of performance in March, going 22-for-31 overall (17.0 percent), but that being broken up into a 13-for-21 block over the first eight games of the month (61.9 percent) and a 9-for-10 block over their last six games (90.0 percent).

Carolina just has not had the kind of top-end scoring they needed to compete for a playoff spot this season.  They are one of just five teams without a 50-point scorer (Arizona, Buffalo, Florida, and New Jersey are the other, all on the outside looking in on the playoffs).  The Hurricanes could have two players finish above the 50-point mark, and both could do it with big nights against the Caps.

Eric Staal sits at 49 points for Carolina through 70 games played.  Having reached his 30^th birthday last October, it is time to wonder if his best days are in his rear-view mirror or if a change in scenery would rejuvenate him after what will be his sixth straight season as captain missing the playoffs.  Staal is as close as there is to an iconic player in Hurricane franchise history (those arguing for Ron Francis have a point, although he spent ten seasons in Hartford and played for Pittsburgh and Toronto in addition to the Hartford/Carolina franchise).  He is third in franchise history in games played (839), second in goals scored (310), second in points, first in hat tricks (13), first in multi-point games (179), ninth in playoff games played, first in playoff goals scored (19), first in playoff points (43), and has a Stanley Cup on his resume.

Streakiness has been a hallmark of Staal’s game this season.  He opened the season with a four-game points streak, one of six streaks of three or more games with a point this season.  He also has five streaks of three or more games without a point.  He has been hot lately with six points in his last four games (2-4-6), but a three-game points streak was snapped when he was blanked in a 2-1 overtime loss to Boston on Sunday.  Staal is 25-42-67, plus-3, in 67 career games against the Capitals.

The other Hurricane with a chance to top 50 points is defenseman Justin Faulk who, while not yet having hit that 50-point plateau, is tied for ninth overall with Calgary’s Dennis Wideman and the Rangers’ Keith Yandle in points by defensemen (47 points).  Since the 2005-2006 lockout, Faulk is one of only ten defensemen 23 or younger in his fourth season who scored 115 or more career points.  The other nine look like a Who’s Who of defensemen: Dion Phaneuf, Drew Doughty, Mike Green, Erik Karlsson, and Shea Weber among them.  This year he is tied with Green for fourth-most multi-point games by defensemen (12).  In 17 career games against Washington, Faulk is 2-6-8, plus-2, both of his goals being game-winners.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Carolina struggles to score at 5-on-5.  Only three teams – New Jersey (112), Arizona (102), and Buffalo (101) – have fewer goals scored at 5-on-5 than the Hurricanes (117).

2.  Carolina does not do much when shorthanded, either.  Only Florida (yet to score a shorthanded goal this season) has fewer shorthanded goals than the Hurricanes (2).

3.  The Hurricanes are dead last in the league in winning percentage in one-goal games (.324/12-14-11).  They and the Maple Leafs are the only teams to have lost more one-goal games in regulation than they have total one-goal wins.

4.  Shots are of a particular concern to Carolina.  No team has a worse winning percentage when being out-shot than the Hurricanes (.213/6-14-6).

5.  Carolina is not an altogether awful team in terms of possession.  They do rank eighth overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (52.3), and they rank 11^th in that statistic in close score situations (51.7).  Their Fenwick numbers at 5-on-5 are just about as good, ranking 11^th overall (52.0) and 13^th in close score situations (51.6; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Their problem, as you might deduce, is that PDO number.  The Hurricanes are 28th the league in PDO at 5-on-5 overall (97.5), last in PDO in close score situations (97.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Including the game in which he was injured against the New York Rangers on March 11^th, the Capitals are 5-4-0 in Jay Beagle’s absence.  Just pointing that out.

2.  The Caps have 17 players with ten or more points this season, one more than reached that mark last season.  Unless Curtis Glencross (six points) or Michael Latta (five points) has an unusual spurt over the last six games, it is unlikely they will get to 18 players hitting that ten point mark.

3.  As one might expect, Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals within his division (20) than any other player in the NHL this season within theirs.  What one might not know is that the Caps’ second-ranking intra-divisional goal scorer is Eric Fehr (11).

4.  Mike Green sure likes home cooking in one respect.  At Verizon Center, Green is plus-12.  On the road, he is merely “even.”

5.  The Caps have the league’s 12^th best record at 41-25-10.  They have the league’s 13^th best Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (51.4) and 12^th best Corsi-for in close score situations (51.6).  Imagine that (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Cam Ward/Anton Khudobin

The Hurricanes are not getting enough out of the goaltender position.  Consider that there are 46 goalies having appeared in at least 20 games this season.  Cam Ward ranks 31^st in even strength save percentage (.916), while Anton Khudobin ranks 44^th (.905).  They have not been subject to the big outburst.  For example, Cam Ward has allowed four or more goals ten times this season, the same number as Pekka Rinne (although Rinne has played in 14 more games).  Khudobin has done so eight times, the same number as Henrik Lundqvist (Lundqvist has played in eight more games).  However, a 2.48 goals against average and a .908 save percentage out of the goaltending position has not been quite good enough to make the Hurricanes playoff contenders this season.

Washington: Curtis Glencross

Seven games, 4-2-6, even…five games, 0-0-0, minus-2.  That is the 12-game experience of Curtis Glencross as a Washington Capital, his first seven games in the red jersey and his last five games.  Curtis Glencross recorded one shot on goal against the New York Rangers on Sunday, his first shot on goal in five games since scoring his fourth goal as a Capital on two shots in a 4-3 Gimmick win over Buffalo on March 16^th.  The Caps’ record has not been appreciably different in the five game Glencross went without a point (3-2-0) from the seven in which he scored six points (4-3-0), but if the Caps are to get secondary scoring to make their final playoff push, he is likely to be an important part of it.  In seven career games against Carolina, he is 4-1-5, plus-4.

In the end…

This is the last game of the season for the Caps against a team out of playoff contention.  In that sense it is a “must-win” game.  The Hurricanes have not been a cooperative opponent, however.  While Washington owns a 2-1-0 record against Carolina this season, one win came in overtime, and another was a one-goal win.  The loss was a 3-0 shutout.  Fail to take the Hurricanes seriously, and it could come back to bite the Caps.

Capitals 4 - Hurricanes 2
 

Down the Home Stretch: March 29 Update

Things remain tight in the three-team race for two wild card spots in the Eastern Conference.  The Caps beating the Rangers helped keep it from getting tighter still, but Boston's hot breath can be felt on the necks of the Caps...

A TWO-Point Afternoon -- Game 76: Capitals 5 - Rangers 2

The Washington Capitals scored early, scored late, and weathered a brief flurry from the New York Rangers late in the first period to skate past the Blueshirts, 5-2, at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon.

Washington’s five-goal outburst was their first game with more than three goals in their last nine games, and it started in the game’s fifth minute.  Alex Ovechkin gained the Ranger zone with speed down the left wing wall with Jesper Fast trying to pin him to the boards. Ovechkin eluded that attempt and cut behind Fast to the middle of the ice.  Before either Dan Girardi or  Ryan McDonagh could close the gap on Ovechkin, he snapped a shot that beat goalie Cam Talbot past his blocker, and the Caps had a 1-0 lead 4:32 into the game.

That lead looked safe for the Caps late in the period, but the Ranger scored goals 61 seconds apart to take the lead.  Kevin Hayes took advantage of some misfortune on the part of John Carlson to tie the game.  A pass from Tim Gleason to Carlson in front of goalie Braden Holtby was not handled cleanly by Carlson, and the puck was loose in the high slot.  Hayes collected it and deked Holtby to the ice before using his reach to one-hand the puck past Holtby’s left pad to tie the game with 1:50 left in the first period.

Barely a minute later, the Rangers had a lead.  Matt Niskanen moved up the right wing wall to try and control a loose puck, but he overskated it under pressure from Rick Nash.  It gave the Rangers the opportunity to break out of their end with speed, and it was Derick Brassard taking a pass from Mats Zuccarello and skating the puck down the ice.  Brassard cut to his left as he reached the Caps’ blue line and fed Zuccarello on his left.  Zuccarello returned the puck to Brassard for a one-timer from the left wing faceoff dot that beat Holtby on the long side to give the Rangers a 2-1 lead with 49 seconds left in the period.

After that it was all Capitals.  Mid-way through the second period Alex Ovechkin recorded his 48^th goal of the season on a power play to tie the game.  The scoring play started with Matt Niskanen skating the puck down the right wing side of the Rangers’ end, then dropping the puck back to Nicklas Backstrom along the wall.  Backstrom created space and a passing lane along the wall and found Ovechkin across the ice at the left point.  Ovechkin dialed up a slap shot that looked as if it might go wide on the long side but hit Ranger defenseman Dan Boyle and caromed past Cam Talbot for the goal to tie the game.

In the third period it was time for secondary scoring to assume a primary role.  Jason Chimera gave the Caps the lead when he skated down the middle and set up shop in front of Talbot as teammates Brooks Laich and Eric Fehr were getting whacks at a loose puck.  The puck inched its way over to Chimera, and with Carl Hagelin draped all over him at the edge of the paint, Chimera backhanded the puck under Talbot to make it 3-2 just 4:41 into the final frame.

Chimera scored again three minutes later.  Steaming down the middle, he took a nifty pass from Brooks Laich from the right wing wall, skated in and waited for Talbot to go down to defend a shot before snaking a backhand around Talbot’s left pad to make it 4-2 at the 7:40 mark of the period.

With the Rangers pulling Talbot for an extra attacker in the last three minutes, the Caps closed the scoring when Marcus Johansson gloved down a pass from Troy Brouwer at the center red line, faked a shot with Rick Nash trying to defend, and snapped the puck into the empty net with 2:23 left in the game for the final 5-2 margin.

Other stuff…

-- The two-goal game for Ovechkin was his 14^th of the season, tops in the league and six more than his closest pursuers, San Jose’s Joe Pavelski and Dallas’ Tyler Seguin (eight apiece).

-- Jason Chimera had his first two-goal game of the season, breaking a 20-game streak without a goal and a ten-game streak without a point.  It was the first time he recorded two goals in a game since he had a pair in a 4-3 Gimmick loss to the New Jersey Devils on December 23, 2011.

-- Secondary scoring means assists too.  Eric Fehr had a pair of helpers, his first two-assist game of the season.  Brooks Laich also had a pair of assists, his first two-assist game of the season as well.

-- When Ovechkin scored on the power play in the second period, it broke a streak of 13 straight power plays without a goal, including the first two in this game.

-- This was the fourth time this season that a pair of Capitals registered two goals in a game.  The others:

• November 11: Capitals 4 – Blue Jackets 2 (Alex Ovechkin, Marcus Johansson)
• January 7: Capitals 6 – Maple Leafs 2 (Eric Fehr, Marcus Johansson)
• February 15: Capitals 5 – Ducks 3 (Alex Ovechkin, Andre Burakovsky)

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov was the only Capital taking more than two faceoffs who finished over 50 percent (8-for-13/61.5 percent)

-- The teams split 50 shot attempts down the middle, 50 apiece, but it was the Caps who won that battle at 5-on-5, out attempting the Rangers, 38-32 (31-23 in close score situations, from war-on-ice.com).

-- Nicklas Backstrom broke a three-game streak without a point when he assisted on the Ovechkin power play goal.  It lifted him into a tie with Philadelphia’s Jakub Voracek for the league lead in assists (55).

-- John Carlson was a plus-2 to make him plus-10 for the season.  The Caps now have five players at plus-10 or better.  Last season they had none.  The Caps have eight players with better plus-minus numbers than the team best last season, plus-7 by Joel Ward and Steve Oleksy.

-- Braden Holtby stopped 23 of 25 shots.  In games following a performance in which he stopped fewer than 90 percent of the shots he faced, Holtby is 9-6-2, 2.36, .920, with three shutouts.

In the end…

Just when you think the Caps are about to take a long slow slide into the ooze of the off season, they play a game like this that makes you think they can do some damage in the post season.  Not that it was perfect – two late goals in a period is evidence of a continuing need to tighten things up.  But the Rangers are, at the moment, the class of the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league, and they would be expected to have their moments.

That the Caps could roar back with four unanswered goals after what might have been a dispiriting end to the first period speaks to possibilities for this team, but it also speaks to the confounding nature of this team of which we spoke in the end of week review.  These were two important points to bank, coming as they did on the road against a very good team.  Now they get to follow it up against a lottery team on Tuesday night, the Carolina Hurricanes.  If they play as they did this afternoon against the Rangers, it will not end well for Carolina.  Then again, if the Caps do not play as they did today, then this afternoon’s effort might end up having been wasted.  There just isn’t any time to rest on one’s laurels at this time of year.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 25

Week 25 was a light work week for the Washington Capitals, and that is either a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how you stand on the whole “half glass full/half glass empty” debate.

Record: 1-1-0

As noted, it was a light work week for the Caps, just two games.  It was their second two-game week in their last three and their first .500 week since Week 17.  It was a test of sorts.  The Caps started the week against a team that is all but out of the post season race, but one – the New Jersey Devils – that posed a systems challenge for the Capitals, being the sort of team that relies on technical execution and goaltending to win games more than skill.  The Nashville Predators posed an entirely different sort of challenge. In the Predators, the Caps faced an elite team capable of beating opponents with overwhelming force (12 wins by three or more goals this season) or with top notch goaltending (Pekka Rinne is a top-five goaltender in most statistical categories).

The results were mixed.  The Caps gave up a shorthanded goal and a goal in the last minute of regulation to be forced into overtime before escaping with a win against New Jersey.  Against the Predators, the Caps fell behind early and often (0-3 before the game was 15 minutes old).  While they did claw within a goal twice, the early deficit was too much to overcome for the Caps.  It left the week a bit of a muddle, record-wise.  A win against a struggling team, a loss that seemed less close than the score indicated against a team that served as a useful measuring stick.

Offense:  3.00/game (season: 2.85/game; rank: 8th)

Six goals in two games is not a bad output.  However, when four of those goals come when the Caps are behind or tied, there is a certain sense of urgency (you might say, “panic”) that leaves one less than impressed with the overall result.  It is of the sort of which one might ask, “where was this when the Caps were falling behind (against Nashville) or letting teams get back into the game (against the Devils)?”

It was an odd week in that Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom were held off the score sheet, extending their mutual streak without points to three games, the first time that happened since mid-November.

What the Caps got was secondary scoring (go figure).  Troy Brouwer had a pair of goals against Nashville.  Eric Fehr, Karl Alzner (seriously, go figure), Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Mike Green got the others.  Matt Niskanen and Marcus Johansson each had three assists.  However, eight players sharing points, even in two games, is not the kind of expansive sharing of scoring the Caps want or need this time of year.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 2.43/game; rank: 7th)

Folks talk about playing 60 minutes, but the flip side of that is avoiding those short stretches of time in a game that can ruin a lot of good works otherwise performed.  That was the case in Week 25.  The Caps put the Devils in a bind with two goals in the first 22 minutes of the game.  A shorthanded goal on a bad line change and a late extra-attacker goal wiped out that good early work on offense.  Then there was the 15 minutes to open the game against the Predators in which the Caps allowed three goals.

It is in that context that the possession numbers for the Caps look so odd.  At 5-on-5 overall, the Caps look pretty good for the two games, or at least not awful – a 51.2 Corsi-for percentage and a 47.5 Fenwick-for percentage.  In close score situations, though, those numbers were 45.1 and 41.1, and that does not include the late antics against the Devils (based on how close score statistics are computed; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 3.02 / .897 (season: 2.36 / .918 / 8 shutouts)

In a week when Justin Peters was the star in net (this being relative), you can tell it was not the best of weeks in netminding.  Not that Peters was bad, or even mediocre.  He stopped 13 of 14 shots in relief of Braden Holtby against Nashville.  It is part of a rather good stretch of play for Peters.  In his last four appearances he stopped 88 of 96 shots, a .917 save percentage, well above the .864 save percentage he had before these most recent four appearances.

Then there was Holtby.  He had a good game against New Jersey (29 saves on 31 shots), but he was leaky against Nashville (three goals on 13 shots).  It is a further indication of some slippage in his game.  In his last 15 appearances he is 7-7-0 (one no-decision), 2.48, .918.  He has been pulled as many times over those 15 games (twice) as he has shutouts (two).  Seven times in those 15 games he allowed three or more goals.  Here are some odd Holtby numbers: 4-4-2, 2.56, .907.  That is his record with three or more days rest this season.  He had four days off between his game against Winnipeg to close Week 24 and his appearance against New Jersey to open Week 25.  He won that game and stopped 29 of 31 shots in the process, but the lack of rhythm in the schedule (he is 20-6-2, 1.83, .937, with five shutouts when playing on one day’s rest) might have affected him.

Power Play: 0-for-4 / 0.0 percent (season: 24.4 percent; rank: 1st)

No power play goals in Week 25.  That broke a 24-week streak of recording at least one power play goal and a 34-week streak since taking the collar in Week 16 last season.  Part of it was chances; the Caps had only four power play opportunities in the two games.  It was not the quality of opponent that affected the result.  New Jersey went into their game against Washington ranked 20^th in penalty killing; Nashville was ranked 14^th.  It was not efficiency; the Caps recorded seven shots on goal in 5:25 of power play ice time.  They even had 55 seconds of 5-on-3 power play time against Nashville.  They got the shots from the players, okay..player, they wanted (Ovechkin had four of the seven shots on goal).  Still, it was no goals for and even a shorthanded goal allowed (to New Jersey).  It was just a bad week for what is arguably the best aspect of Capitals play.

Penalty Killing: 4-for-4 / 100.0 percent (season: 81.5 percent; rank: 15th)

On the other side of the special teams divide, the penalty killers had a good week.  It was their third perfect week in their last nine, over which they are a solid 85.1 percent.  They were effective (4-for-4) and efficient (allowing only four shots in 6:20 of shorthanded ice time).  The Caps even threw in a shorthanded goal of their own for good measure.  Part of it might have been quality of opponent – New Jersey had the league’s 12^th-ranked power play going into their game against the Caps; Nashville was ranked 24^th going into their game.  Still, you take advantage of opportunities where you find them, something the Caps did not do in too many areas in Week 25.

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 5-5 / even (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.04; rank: 15th)

It was not a bad week at evens, but neither was it a good week.  The goals were even, the shots relatively so (the Caps had 24 even strength shots to 28 for their two opponents).  You might say that it was merely in a technical sense that the Caps were held even for the week, New Jersey’s late goal to tie the game in regulation coming with an extra attacker but recorded as an even strength goal.  It was that 15 minute burst by the Predators to open the game on Saturday that leaves the bad taste in one’s mouth.  Another example of a just a few minutes or weak play overshadowing a week’s effort.

Faceoffs: 61-123 / 49.6 percent (season: 51.4% / rank: 12th)

It was just about a down-the-middle week for the Caps in the circle.  They all but split 123 total draws, and of the four players taking more than ten draws, two finished the week over 50 percent (Nicklas Backstrom: 52.3 percent; Eric Fehr: 56.0 percent), and two finished below that threshold (Evgeny Kuznetsov: 33.3 percent; Michael Latta: 46.7 percent).

The Caps were fine in the offensive zone (54.0 percent, but were taken to school in the defensive end (41.7 percent), the difference being incidences.  The Caps enjoyed 14 more draws in the offensive zone (50) than they did in the defensive end (36).

Goals by Period:

The early damage and the late damage affected the week for the Caps.  The three first period goals against Nashville being the only first period goals allowed in what would be a loss, a last-minute goal scored by New Jersey being the only third period goal allowed that tied the game and forced the Caps to overtime to secure the win. 

The three first period goals by Nashville was the odd occurrence, given the Caps ability to hold things down in the opening period (sixth fewest first period goals allowed going into the game) and the Predators’ middling ability to score early (only 54 goals scored in the first period).

In the end…

The Caps are, at this point, a most befuddling team.  Consider the 2015 portion of their season.  They are 22-14-3 in those games, almost evenly split between teams that are currently playoff eligible and teams that are not.  You would expect that the Caps would feast on the also-rans and, hopefully, hold their own against the contenders.  What you find, though, it a bit different:

This is what frustrates Caps fans no end, an ability to play good teams tough and an unnerving ability to play down to their opponents if those opponents are of the struggling sort.  It is not the losing to the Nashville’s of the world that will do in the Caps, should they miss the post season, it is letting teams like the Devils hang around and make their lives difficult.  In that sense, Week 25 was a microcosm of the Caps’ season.  If the Caps get into the post season, they can play those teams tough, but if they don’t it will be because they played weak against the weaklings.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Troy Brouwer (2-0-2, plus-2, 11 hits, 5-for-9 on faceoffs)
• Second Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-1-2, plus-2, game-winning goal)
• Third Star: Matt Niskanen (0-3-3, plus-1, assist on game-winning goal)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 76: Capitals at Rangers, March 29th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals will be looking to kill two (or more) birds with one stone when they face the New York Rangers on Sunday afternoon.  They will be looking to shake off their 4-3 loss to the Nashville Predators on Saturday afternoon, they will be trying to put some distance between themselves and their closest pursuers for a wild-card playoff berth (Ottawa and Boston), and they will be seeking to end a three-game losing streak to the Rangers dating back to last season.

Despite having the third-best goal differential in the Eastern Conference, the Caps find themselves facing the possibility of missing the playoffs altogether as they head into this contest against the Rangers.  Part of the Caps’ problem in clinching a playoff spot is an inconsistency in their performances on a game-to-game basis, especially recently.  While the Capitals are 4-2-0 in their last six games, they are just 5-5-0 in their last ten and in that time have not been able to put any more distance between themselves and the Boston Bruins (their closest pursuer at the moment in the standings) than the three point difference they had back on March 3^rd, before this ten-game stretch started.

On the other side, the Rangers are fine-tuning for the playoffs.  While they lost on Saturday in Boston to the Bruins – a 4-2 loss in goalie Henrik Lundqvist’s return after almost two months since sustaining a neck injury – the Rangers are 9-3-1 in March.  Multiply each of those numbers by three, and you have the Rangers’ record in the 2015 portion of the season to date: 27-9-3.  If there is the slightest crack in their façade, it has appeared in the last two weeks, over which the Rangers are a more mortal 3-3-0.

In those six games, the Rangers outscored their opponents by an 18-14 margin, but two of the three wins were laughers – a 7-2 win over Anaheim a week ago and a 5-1 win over Ottawa on Thursday.  Their power play is just 1-for-7 in those six games and has not been on the ice in either of their last two contests.  The penalty kill is 13-for-14 in those six games.

The Rangers have had the benefit of primary scoring in the 3-3-0 run with Chris Kreider leading the club with three goals and Derek Stepan leading in overall points with six.  But New York has had secondary contributions as well.  Kevin Hayes is tied for the scoring lead over the last six games with six points (1-5-6).  Hayes was a 24^th overall pick of the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2010 draft (the Caps took Evgeny Kuznetsov two picks later).  However, the Blackhawks allowed their rights to sign him to expire last August, and the Rangers signed him as a free agent later that month.  He has been quite a find for the Rangers, going 14-24-38 in 71 games.  Those 14 goals are tied for sixth on the club, and his 38 points is seventh in Ranger scoring.  Hayes is 0-2-2, plus-2 in two career games against Washington.

J.T. Miller has provided some secondary scoring, too.  In his last six games he is 2-3-5, and in 50 games has almost twice as many goals (9) as he had in 56 games over the previous two seasons combined (5) and twice as many points (20) as he recorded over the previous two seasons combined (10).  He has points in four of his last five games, matching a four-games-in-five scoring stretch he had from December 29^th through January 8^th.  In seven career games against the Capitals, Miller is 1-0-1, minus-2, his goal being the game-winner in the Rangers’ 3-1 victory over the Caps on March 11^th.

On Saturday, Cam Talbot assumed the backup goaltending role from which he sprung when Henrik Lundqvist suffered a neck injury back on January 31^st.  With the Rangers playing a back-to-back set of games, and Lundqvist getting the nod on Saturday, it would seem likely that Talbot will get the call against the Caps on Sunday.  He already has a victory against Washington this season to his credit, a 3-1 win on March 11^th.  It was part of an extended run over which he allowed two or fewer goals in nine straight games, a streak that came to an end last Tuesday in a 4-2 loss to the Los Angeles Kings.  He got right back on track, though, with a 23-save effort in a 5-1 win over Ottawa on Thursday.  In spelling Lundqvist as the number one goaltender, Talbot was 16-4-3, 2.16, .929, with two shutouts.  In two career appearances against the Caps, Talbot is 1-1-0, 2.03, .937.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  When the Rangers win, they do not just win, they bury teams.  New York has almost as many wins by three or more goals (18) as they do one-goal wins (21).  Only Montreal and Tampa Bay have more wins by multi-goal margins (29 apiece) than the Rangers (26), and New York’s 18 wins by three or more goals is tied for the league lead (with Chicago and Vancouver).

2.  The Rangers have allowed only one 4-on-4 goal this season, fewest in the league, an interesting counterpoint to the Caps being tied for second in 4-on-4 goals scored (13, with Anaheim).

3.  The Rangers being out-shot is not a good sign for opponents.  New York is tied for the league lead in winning percentage (.667/18-8-1) when being out-shot.

4.  The Rangers are one of only two teams (Nashville is the other) having lost once in regulation when leading after the first period.  And, they have the league’s second best record (32-0-1) when leading at the second intermission (Chicago is 23-0-0).  Those 32 wins when leading after two periods is tied with the Caps for the league lead.

5.  The Rangers have been a dominant team at 5-on-5 in one respect in the 2015 portion of the season.  In 38 games they have outscored their opponents by an 88-58 margin at 5-on-5, a 1.52 goals scored-to-goals allowed ratio.  It is, however, at odds with their possession numbers.  Over the same 38 games the Rangers have Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages at 5-on-5 of 50.1/50.1.  Those numbers are not a lot better in close score situations – 50.2/50.7.  If anything, the Rangers are slightly better in possession on the road.  Their Corsi-for/Fenwick for percentages in close score situations of away games are 51.8/52.1 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Over their 5-5-0 ten-game run, the Caps have split 48 goals down the middle with their opponents (24-24).  Their power play is 7-for-24 (29.2 percent), while their penalty kill is 26-for-31 (83.9 percent), a respectable 113.1 on the special teams index.

2.  It is the even strength battle that the Caps are losing.  They have been outscored at 5-on-5 by a 16-11 margin over their last ten games.

3.  The Caps’ leading scorer over their last ten games is not Alex Ovechkin, and it is not Nicklas Backstrom.  It is Evgeny Kuznetsov, who has eight points (4-4-8).  Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, and Curtis Glencross each have four goals to lead the team in their last ten games.

4.  Neither Ovechkin nor Backstrom has a point in their last three games.  It is the first time the duo  went three straight games together without a point since each went without a point in three straight games last November 15-18.

5.  The even strength scoring problems the Caps have had over their last ten games do not align with their possession number over those same ten games.  Their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall is 55.0.  It is not as good in close score situations, however (51.2; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Rick Nash

Rick Nash scored his 40^th goal of the season on Saturday against Boston. It was his first goal in nine games and just his third in his last 16 games after lighting the lamp 37 times in his first 57 games.  His scoring is a critical element in Ranger success, as you might expect.  New York is 24-8-1 in games in which Nash scores at least one goal, 31-8-5 when he records a point.  The Rangers are 23-12-6 when he does not record a goal, 16-12-2 when he does not record a point.  Not that the Rangers’ record without Nash scoring is poor, just not as dominant.  He has had more than his share of success against the Caps, too.  In 17 career games against Washington, Nash is 12-8-20, plus-2.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

On the one hand, Marcus Johansson has been a very consistent player for the Caps.  In his last four seasons he has averaged 0.58, 0.65, 0.55, and this season 0.54 points per game.  On the other hand, that is not the sort of upward arc of production one would like to see in a player still in his early career phase (Johansson is 24 years old).  On the one hand, his goal production is up, having already set a career high of 17 goals in 75 games this season.  On the other hand, he does not have a goal in his last eight games, which is lousy timing for a club suddenly finding itself in a playoff dogfight.  Johansson is not the problem; he is, however, a symptom.  The Caps need more balance than they are getting (half of the 24 goals over the last ten games coming from three players), and Johansson is a part of that solution.  He is 1-5-6, minus-6, in 15 career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

Playing to a .500 record over their last seven games might be good enough for the Caps to slide into the playoffs, but it would not be the way to bet.  Their inconsistency is a bit maddening, to boot.  They dropped their last two decisions to playoff-eligible teams (3-0 to Winnipeg and 4-3 to Nashville) after winning two such decisions over such clubs (3-2 over Minnesota and 2-0 over Boston).  And those two wins came after two losses to…well, you get the point (to the Rangers and the Wild, to complete the point).  From here on out, it is almost all playoff-eligible or near-eligible teams the Caps will face over their last seven games (only Carolina is not contending for such a spot).  They will have to earn their ticket to the post season.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2