The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 5: Capitals at Flames, October 20

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their show on the road for their first trip out of Washington this season.  After posting a 3-1-0 record in their four-game home stand to open the 2015-2016 season, they head off to western Canada to take on the Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks, and Edmonton Oilers.

The Flames are first up on the trip, and the Caps will be visiting a city in which they have not played very much in recent years.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Caps have played just five games in Calgary, posting a record of 3-2-0, a 3-1 win at Scotiabank Saddledome in October 2014 being the Caps’ most recent experience in Stampede City.

Calgary is said to be named by a colonel in the North-West Mounted Police for his home in Scotland.  There some question over the origin of the name itself, whether is comes from the Old Gaelic for “beach of the meadow,” or from the Norse words for “cold” and “garden.”  We’ll put our money on the latter.

“Cold” might be an apt description of Flames hockey at the Saddledome so far this season.  Calgary is 0-3-0 in three home games so far this season (1-4-0 overall), dropping decisions to the Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, and Edmonton Oilers.  They have been outscored, 14-6, in the three games; their power play going 2-for-10 and their penalty kill going 6-for-8.

Half of the six goals scored by the Flames at home have come off the stick of David Jones, a nine-year veteran drafted by Colorado in 2003.  Jones is testimony to the virtues of perseverance.  He is the last skater taken in the 2003 draft (288th overall) who has ever appeared in an NHL game, and he ranks a respectable 51st in total games played in that draft class (392), more than six of the 30 players taken in the first round that year.  And it is not as if Jones has been a mere grinder or marginal player over his career.  He does have two-20 goal seasons to his credit (both with Colorado, in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012) and is coming off a 14-goal, 30-point season with Calgary last season.  In four career games against the Caps, Jones is 1-1-2, plus-1.

We are now three-plus seasons removed from Dennis Wideman’s stay in Washington.  The defenseman, who recorded 12 goals and 53 points in 96 regular season games with the Caps, went 15-41-56 last season for the Flames, tied for sixth among defensemen in goals and fourth overall in points.  So far this season, Wideman does not have a goal, but he is spreading the good fortune around.  He is tied for third in the league among defensemen with five assists; he has 11 assists in his last eight regular season games dating back to last season.  He is also ninth among defensemen in average ice time, logging 25:05 a night.  Wideman is 5-8-13, even, in 21 career games against the Capitals.

Goaltending has not been anything to get excited about in Calgary so far this season.  Jonas Hiller and Karri Ramo have combined for an aggregate goaltending line of 3.60 goals against average and .887 save percentage.  Only Hiller has allowed fewer than three goals in a game so far, and he has done that once in three appearances (a 3-2 overtime win over Vancouver for the Flames’ only win this season).  Hiller and Ramo have alternated the last three games, and if that pattern holds, Ramo would get the call against Washington.  He is 1-4-2, 3.11, .905 in eight career appearances against the Caps.  If Hiller gets the nod, he brings a 3-1-1, 3.23, .894 record against Washington to the contest.

1.  Plus-minus has its limitations as a statistic, but looking at the Calgary roster, only one player is in positive territory: Sam Bennett (plus-1), and he’s hurt.

2.  Some folks think that paying attention to the little things leads to doing the big things well.  Calgary is 28th in the league in faceoff winning percentage (46.2 percent).  They are 1-4-0.  It might be coincidence.  Then again…

3.  The Flames have been outscored, 7-3, in the third period of games so far this season.  Given the Caps success in scoring third period goals so far, this bears watching.

4.  Outside of Dennis Wideman, only one other Flames defenseman has a point.  Dougie Hamilton has it, and it happens to be the Calgary defense’s only goal this season.

5.  Possession numbers have not been kind to the Flames so far.  Calgary ranks 26th in Corsi-for percent at 5-on-5 (46.6).  They are worse in close-score situations, holding the same 26th place ranking, but with a value of 44.0.  Only six skaters are above 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, and that is a group sprinkled through with bottom six/third pair players such as Derek Engelland (57.7), Brent Kulak (57.1), Josh Jooris (51.1), Brandon Bollig (51.6), and Lance Bouma (53.2).  The only skill player in that group is Sam Bennett (53.7), and as noted, he’s hurt.

1.   Brooks Laich was our “Player to Ponder” in the Carolina game,  and he merits some more pondering.  What to make of a player who leads the club in Corsi-for percent at 5-on-5 (69.6) and has not been on ice for a goal scored for the Caps.  Sure, part of it is teammates (Chandler Stephenson and Sean Collins, with whom Laich has spent some time, haven’t been on ice for a goal for, either), but it is a trend one would like to see reversed.

2.  The Capitals are one of nine teams (through Sunday’s games) without a fighting major penalty.  Only four teams have been called for fewer minor penalties.  The best penalty kill is the one you don’t have to perform.

3.  The Caps are 28th in the league in hits, 17th in blocked shots, two statistics in the “negative space” – indicators that you don’t have possession of the puck.  Conversely, Washington is ninth in Corsi-for percent at 5-on-5 (52.1), and only four teams have higher offensive zone start shares in those situations than the Caps (57.0; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

4.  Matt Niskanen already has half of his 2014-2015 total of even strength goals and power play goals through four games.  It might not be saying much, since he has one of each and the moment and had two of each last season.

5.  Seven different Capital forwards are averaging at least one minute per game on the penalty kill.  Even Tom Wilson, who had a grand total of 46 seconds of shorthanded ice time last season, is over a minute (1:11/game).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Dougie Hamilton

Douglas Jonathan Hamilton, known to hockey fans as “Dougie,” has had quite an adventure as a hockey player for one who just turned 22 years of age last summer.  He was drafted ninth overall by the Boston Bruins in the 2011 entry draft.  After spending one more year in Canadian junior, he went right to the big club, playing in 42 games in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season.  He finished tied for third in points among rookie defensemen (16).  In the next two years he progressed handsomely, finishing 7-18-25 in 64 games in 2013-2014, then going 10-32-42 in 72 games last season for the Bruins.

The progress came at a price, not to the player, but to the club.  Facing status as a restricted free agent and perhaps not being appreciative of the approach of head coach Claude Julien, Hamilton was traded to the Flames over the summer for a first round draft pick and two second round picks.  On cannot yet say that Hamilton is flourishing in his new surroundings.  He has one point, is a minus-3, and has taken eight minutes in penalties (second only to Derek Engelland among Calgary defensemen), despite logging more than 23 minutes a game.  The combination of being a young guy, leaving the team that drafted him on iffy terms, and getting settled in his new environment might contribute to the slow start, but much is expected of him, too.  Hamilton is 1-2-3, minus-3, in seven career games against Washington.

Washington: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky is currently the man – perhaps the only man on the Caps roster – without a permanent address in terms of which line he is playing on.  Burakovsky has logged 50:24 in 5-on-5 ice time, and it breaks down rather neatly among three pairs of forwards.  Of that total, he has 25:43 with Maruch Johansson and 22:25 with Justin Williams.  He has 11:41 with Evgeny Kuznetsov and 11:24 with T.J. Oshie.  And, he has 9:03 with Brooks Laich and 7:03 with Chandler Stephenson.

That is pretty much the profile of a player who has had first, second, and fourth line responsibilities to date.  What is more, going forward he might be a third line center.  It is a lot for a 20-year old, second year player to take in, but he does have an assist in four games, and he is tied for second among Caps forwards in blocked shots.  What has been consistent, and not really in a good way, is his work in the faceoff circle.  He is third in total draws taken for the Capitals, but his 38.1 percent winning rate needs to improve.  He does not have a point in two career games against the Flames.

In the end…

Having lost their first three home games of the season, one would have to think Calgary will come out hard and fast against the Caps on Tuesday night.  It will be a good test for the Caps in how to manage the other team’s enthusiasm by sticking to their game plan.  That argues for keeping things simple, just like one draws it up for a road game.  The Caps have too many weapons for what has been shaky defense and goaltending for Calgary so far this season.  If they can apply the same slow, steady pressure on the Flames that they applied to Carolina on Saturday, the road trip should get off to a good start.

Capitals 4 – Flames 1

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 1

Once more, we take a look at the week that was.  Week 1 might be thought of as a “week-plus,” since we are covering the first full week plus the season opener on October 10^th.  It was a good week for the Caps, despite having a stinker thrown into the middle of the week.

Record: 3-1-0

The 3-1-0 start is the best four-game start for the Capitals since they ran off seven straight wins to open the 2011-2012 season.  While those are six standings points in the bank, the news was not entirely positive.  The problem here is strength of competition.  In the three wins, the Caps defeated teams that to date have a combined record of 4-6-1 in games apart from those played against the Caps (and yes, that does include the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks).  In their lone game against a team with a superior record – the San Jose Sharks – the Caps came up short.  No doubt a part of that was having both Nicklas Backstrom (injury) and Alex Ovechkin (team suspension) out, but it was a sluggish effort.  They will be tested in Week 2 as they take their act to the Canadian prairie for three games.

Offense:  3.25/game (season: 3.25/game; rank: T-8th)

There were 14 different players recording points for the Caps in Week 1, led by defenseman John Carlson (2-3-5).  Carlson finished the week tied for third in points among league defensemen and tied for first in goals.  Alex Ovechkin picked up where he left off, well, over his career to date.  He recorded goals in each of the three games in which his alarm clock was set forthe correct time.  While Ovechkin leads the team in goals (3), he has not yet taken over the team lead in shots on goal.  That spot would belong to T.J. Oshie who, after a slow start (no points in his first two games), put up a pair of 1-1-2 efforts and finished the week with 16 shots on goal.  Then there was Nicklas Backstrom.  Held out the lineup for the first three games, Backstrom returned to the lineup on Saturday against the Carolina Hurricanes.  He had a goal and two assists for his 49^th career game with three or more points, third highest career total in team history.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.50/game; rank: T-11th)

The issue for the Caps coming into the season on the blueline was how well the third pair would play, whether or not they would be a liability.  It did not take long for the Caps to shake things up back there.  Nate Schmidt played in the first two games, Taylor Chorney taking over in the last two contests alongside Dmitry Orlov.  Not only splitting games, the two had virtually identical scoring lines (Chorney: 0-0-0, plus-1, 14:06 average ice time; Schmist: 0-0-0, minus-1, 14:16 in average ice time).  Chorney put up better possession numbers in what was a small population of games (60.0 percent Corsi-forat 5-on-5 to 52.3 for Schmidt).  Chorney also had the best PDO at 5-on-5 of any defenseman (111.11) and the best zone start differential of any Caps defenseman (plus-17.8).  He was blessed.

Goaltending: 2.04 / .920 (season: 2.04 / .920)

Same old, same old.  Braden Holtby got all the minutes in Week 1.  This was to be expected, since the Caps have yet to play in back-to-back games.  That will change in Week 2, but for now, Holtby is off to a solid start.  He is 13^th among 38 goalies having played at least 100 minutes in goal in goals against average (2.04) and is 19^th in save percentage (.920).  His .919 save percentage at even strength could be better, but it is also very early in the season.  If one looks at the time line, he was better in the back half of the week (.957 overall save percentage in Games 3 and 4 of the week) than he was in the first half (.889 in Game 1 and 2).

Power Play: 5-for-13 / 38.5 percent (season: 38.5 percent; rank: 3rd)

Here is another area where the Capitals picked up where they left off last season.  What is more, they spread the good fortune around.  Four players shared in the five goals (T.J. Oshie had two), and nine players recorded power play points.  T.J. Oshie seems to have settled in nicely in the middle of the 1-3-1 set.  Along with leading the team in power play goals, he is tied for the team lead in power play points (3) and leads the club in shots on goal on the man advantage (6).  From the back line, John Carlson has a power play goal, one of 14 league defensemen to have recorded one, and he is tied for third among league defensemen in power play points (3).  The power play as a whole was quite efficient, going 5-for-22 in shooting (22.7 percent) and had 22 shots on goal in 19:16 of power play time (1.14 shots per minute).

Penalty Killing: 11-for-13 / 84.6 percent (season: 84.6 percent; rank: T-10th)

The penalty killing could be split into two parts.  In Game 1 and 2 of the week the Caps were 6-for-8, and in Games 3 and 4 they killed off all five shorthanded situations they faced.  In all, the Caps killed the last eight power plays they faced, going back to late in the first period of their 5-0 loss to San Jose.  The Caps’ efficiency on the penalty kill points to the old adage of the goaltender being the best penalty killer.  Washington, and Braden Holtby, allowed two power play goals on nine shots to open the week, but they slammed the door after that.  San Jose (in the last 43:05 of their contest), Chicago, and Carolina managed no power play goals on the last 15 shots faced while shorthanded.  Overall, opponents shot 2-for-24 (8.3 percent) in 22:41 in power play ice time (1.06 shots per minute).

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 7-5 / plus-2 (season, 5-on-5 goals for percentage: 58.3%; rank: 11th)

Without that San Jose game, this statistic would look a lot better.  They all count, though.  As it was, the Caps has 12 players record even strength points for the week.  If there was a surprise there, it was that the team was led by Alex Ovechkin (three points), who appeared in only three games and is viewed in some quarters as more of a power play weapon than one at even strength.  Almost as strange is the two other players with multi-point weeks at even strength – Matt Niskanen and Marcus Johansson (two apiece).

Faceoffs: 116-230 / 50.4 percent (season: 50.4% / rank: 12th)

The Caps had a decent week in the circle, dominated by their performance in the offensive end.  For the week, Washington was 60.2 percent to the good in offensive zone faceoffs.  There they were led by Jay Beagle, who was perfect on 14 offensive zone draws for the week, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, who was 14-for-25 (56.0 percent).  Things were not as rosy in the defensive end, where the Caps went 30-for-69 for the week (43.5 percent).  Only Chandler Spephenson posted a mark of better than 50 percent, and that was more a product of few events (66.7 on 2-for-3).

Goals by Period:

What distinguished Week 1 for the Caps in goals scored by period was their third period performance.  Even the 8-5 margin understates the manner in which the Caps dominated the third period.  San Jose scored a pair of empty net goal in the late going of their 5-0 win over the Caps, pumping up the opponent total.  The Caps finished the week tied in third period goals scored and did so having played fewer games than any of the teams ahead of them or with which they are tied.

In the end…

It was a good week, even with the flat effort against the San Jose Sharks.  The best face to put on Week 1 is that the Caps came out of it with a 3-1-0 record having missed their top line center for three games and their top scoring winger for a game.  The Caps got good weeks from players from whom much is expected – Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, Braden Holtby, and even Nicklas Backstrom, who seemed to put a week’s worth of production into his single game.

In the standings, the Caps are positioned between the New York teams in the Metropolitan Division, the Islanders a point ahead of Washington and the Caps tied with the Rangers.  Both the Islanders and Rangers have played one more game than the Capitals.

The Caps now head to the road for the first time this season where they will visit Calgary, Vancouver, and Edmonton, teams with a combined 5-9-1 record.  It is something of a mine field, though.  They get to face a Calgary team that won 23 games at home last season (tied for sixth in the West), but that is 0-3-0 at home so far this season.  You would think they would come out a bit ornery.  Then there is the potential to face long-time nemesis Ryan Miller in goal in Vancouver, finishing up the trip with their first in-person look at Edmonton’s Connor McDavid.  It will be a different sort of benchmarking week for the Caps.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (3-1-0, 2.04, .920)
• Second Star: John Carlson (2-3-5, plus-1, 24:02 average ice time)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-1-4, plus-2)

A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Hurricanes 1

The Washington Capitals made it three wins in four games this season with a 4-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes.  You can read our recap of the contest over at Japers’ Rink,  but we had a few more thoughts on the game…

• The Capitals now have their top-six forwards healthy with Nicklas Backstrom’s return to the lineup in this game.  Carolina is an earnest bunch, but they have a skills deficit that the Caps exploited frequently.  In that context, we are a bit cautious about reading too much into one game, but boy, that top-six was impressive in controlling pace and momentum.
• In baseball, a distinction is often made between a “pitcher” and a “thrower.”  You could make a similar distinction in hockey, that being one between a “puncher” and a “player.”  You can see the evolution of one to the other playing out before your eyes in Tom Wilson’s play this season.  It is not yet showing up in his numbers (0-1-1 in four games), but he is looking more and more to make plays than he is looking for something to hit or punch.  Evidence?  Wilson was credited with no hits in this game.
• The Caps allowed only 19 shots on goal.  As of this writing, they are second in the league in shots allowed per game with 25.5 (St. Louis: 24.2).  It helps to be able to take care of business at both ends of the ice.
• If there was anything odd about the play of the top-six forwards, it might have been the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov did not record a shot on goal and had only one shot attempt.  He also took a penalty and lost nine of 14 draws.
• John Carlson scored his second goal of the season in this game, tying him for the league lead among defensemen, and his five points is tied for second.
• Backstrom had a three-point night (1-2-3).  He had four such games last season, for those of you expecting this sort of thing every night.
• An odd number: 1.  The fourth line of Brooks Laich, Andre Burakovsky, and Chandler Stephenson only took one faceoff in the defensive end all night (Laich beat Elias Lindholm).
• Carolina had more shots in 7:22 of power play time (11) than they did in 50:32 of even strength time (eight).
• The Caps converted both power play chances they had in this game.  That makes them 5-for-13 in four games (38.5 percent).  That is second to the Colorado Avalanche (41.7 percent on 5-for-12).  We’re betting one of those teams will maintain their high rand and that the other will not.
• The Caps were very efficient on their power play – two goals on three shots in 1:56 of total ice time.

In the end…

Good teams make hay while the sun shines, or at least when facing a team that is struggling.  Carolina came off a big win against the Detroit Red Wings on Friday night, but they could not sustain that high level of play on a second consecutive night.  The Caps just applied steady pressure from the first drop of the puck, and they continued applying it until the Hurricanes wilted.  After four games, the Caps look like a team that knows it can win, and win in different ways, but not so caught up in themselves that they would leave a team like Carolina slip through the cracks.  That will be the balance they have to strike this season, between swagger and cockiness.  On this night, they found that balance just fine.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 4: Hurricanes at Capitals, October 17

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals conclude their four-game season-opening home stand when they host the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night.  Capitals fans will be forgiven for wondering which team will show up for this contest, what with having dispatched the New Jersey Devils by a 5-3 margin in the season opener, looking like lost puppies in the rain in a 5-0 shutout at the hands of the San Jose Sharks, and then dismantling the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday by a 4-1 margin.

As for the Hurricanes, no one thought they would be very good, and in the early going they are performing beneath expectations.  Carolina will bring an 0-3-0 record into this game, getting outscored by a 10-5 margin in the process.  Their power play is weak (1-for-13/7.7 percent), their one goal coming in the final three seconds of a 4-2 loss to the Detroit Red Wings.  Their penalty kill is average (6-for-7/85.7 percent), owing what success it has to the few instances in which it has been called upon.  At even strength, the Hurricanes have been outscored, 9-4, and an 0.44 5-on-5 goals-for to goals-against ratio is not a foundation for success.

Only one Hurricane player has more than one point through three games.  That would be Justin Faulk (1-2-3), who is likely to be one of the very few bright spots this season on which Carolina can build going forward.  Still just 23 years old, Faulk has 265 games of NHL experience in his pocket, and he is growing into a minutes-eater.  He has averaged almost 24 minutes per game over his career to date and is averaging 25:57 in three games so far this season (fifth among defensemen in the league).  Faulk is first in his 2010 draft class among defensemen in career goals (34) and second in points (121, to Cam Fowler with 150).  He is 2-6-8, even, in 18 career games against Washington.

If Faulk is an up-and-comer for the Hurricanes, Eric Staal represents the other end of the spectrum. He is by far the dean of the club in terms of service.  His 849 games played with the club is by far the most (no other current Hurricane has played as many as 350 games with the team), and he is the fifth-oldest player on the roster at age 30 (he will turn 31 at the end of this month).  More to the point, Staal has a lot of fine memories with the club, including a Stanley Cup championship in 2006, but with the Hurricanes in rebuilding mode and Staal’s contract expiring with the club at the end of this season, his greatest value might be what he can fetch in return from a trade next February.

To say that Staal is in decline would not be completely fair, given the team around him the past few years, but his production is trending in that direction.  From 53 points in 48 games three seasons ago (1.10 points per game) to 61 in 79 games two seasons ago (0.77) to 54 in 77 games last season (0.70), it is a downward pointing arrow for which he might need a change of scenery to reverse. 

What Staal has been against the Caps is a reliable point-per-game producer overall (68 points in 68 career games). But even here there have been signs of slowing down.  He was 2-0-2 in four games against Washington last season and did not record a goal in five games against the Caps the previous year (he did have five assists).  What he does not yet have in three games so far this season is a point at 5-on-5.  He scored late in the Hurricanes’ 2-1 loss to the Nashville Predators in the season opener, but that goal came with Carolina goalie Cam Ward pulled for a sixth attacker.

Speaking of Cam Ward, here is another player who might be worth more at auction than in the lineup.  A Stanley Cup-winning veteran, like Staal, Ward has never really come all that close to fulfilling the promise that early career championship suggested. In nine seasons since, Ward has never had a goals against average lower than 2.40 (last season,18th in the league among goalies appearing in at least 41 games, but his career best), nor has he had more than one season with a save percentage above .920, that lone season coming in 2010-2011 (.923). 

Further, Ward has not been much of a minutes-eater as number one goaltenders go.  Only four times in his career has he appeared in more than 60 games, and only six times has he logged more than 3,000 minutes.  He has appeared in two games so far, allowing six goals on 44 shots (3.08/.864) in two losses.  Against the Caps, Ward is 16-13-4, 2.60, .919, with four shutouts over his career.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers from last season:

1.  Carolina is coming to Washington to play the back-half of back-to-back games, flying in from Detroit after their Friday night game.  Since Cam Ward is expected to start that game against the Red Wings, the goaltending duties could fall to Eddie Lack in the Saturday night contest in Washington.  Lack was obtained from Vancouver in trade at the NHL draft last June for a pair of draft picks.  The native of Sweden is 34-31-9, 2.44, .916, with six shutouts in 83 career appearances in the NHL.  He is 0-1-0, 4.10, .810 in one appearance against Washington, a 4-3 loss to the Caps in March 2014.

2.  Jeff Skinner, he of the widely circulated and always amusing tantrum against the Caps in November 2011…

…is now the second-longest tenured Hurricane player with 339 games played.  At the age of 23.

3.  Jordan Staal is something of an interesting case when it comes to, of all things, postseason awards.  In six seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins, he earned votes in each season for the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward, twice placing in the top-ten and once as high as third.  In his first season with Carolina, he finished 29th in Selke voting, and in the three years since…crickets. Has he gotten worse, or was the voting a product of the quality of team around him? 

4.  Carolina is second in the league – not second-worst, second in the league – in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (57.5 percent, just behind Los Angeles with 58.1).  In close-score situations, though, that number drops to 52.9 (numbers from war-on-ice.com). Still good (10th in the league), but you can see trouble in the future.

5.  Carolina has not received the goaltending it needs in recent years.  They have not had a goalie play in at least half the team’s games and finish with a save percentage above .910 since Cam Ward posted a .915 save percentage in 68 games in 2011-2012.  It looks as if they will struggle to do it this year, too.  Neither Ward nor Eddie Lack are above .900 so far.

1.  The four-game home stand to open the season ties for the longest such home stand to open a season in Capitals history, matching a four-game home stand to open the 1980-1981 season (the Caps went 2-1-1 in the days when they had ties).

2.  Alex Ovechkin has as many goals as Troy Brouwer.  Bet this is the last time this season we type that sentence.

3.  Alex Ovechkin has as many goals as Matt Niskanen.  See previous item.

4.  The Caps already have four defensemen with points.  Not bad considering last season they had eight, and two of them were traded for one another (Jack Hillen for Tim Gleason).

5.  Washington is 23rd in Corsi-for percentage in close-score situations (46.2), just ahead of Arizona (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  They can do better.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Noah Hanifin

Through Thursday’s games, Carolina defenseman Noah Hanifin is one of just five players taken in the 2015 NHL draft last June to dress for an NHL game so far this season and the only defenseman to do so.  He has not exactly been babied in his introduction the NHL, averaging more than 17 minutes a game in the early going.  It has been a quick rise for the rookie, having gone from St. Sebastian’s High School in 2012-2013 to the US National Team Development program the following season, to the Boston College Eagles last season, to the NHL this season.  Hanifin recorded his first NHL point – an assist on Carolina’s first goal – in the Hurricanes’ 4-3 loss to Detroit last Saturday.  Hanafin is the youngest defenseman in the league (almost a full year younger than Florida’s Aaron Ekblad) and will be making his first appearance in Washington.

Washington: Brooks Laich

There are 13 Capitals with points through the team’s first three games.  Of the eight who do not, there are names you expect to see – rookie Chandler Stephenson (who has played in just one game), fourth liner Michael Latta, new guys Taylor Chorney and Sean Collins.  One name there is just disappointing – Brooks Laich.  Sure, it is early, and there are a lot of guys in the league without a point in their first few games, some of them quite well known. 

Still, after spending so much time over the past several seasons trying to rehabilitate himself from a chronic groin problem, fans are anxious to see Laich return to something resembling the player he was a half dozen years ago.  It is hard to do getting fourth-line minutes (he is 10th of 14 forwards in ice time per game), but getting contributions from Laich going forward are going to be helpful in whatever success the Caps enjoy this season.  It might be that he does it purely as a defensive forward (he is leading the team in penalty killing ice time).  You do what you have to do, and in Laich’s case it might not show up in the production numbers. He has had some success against Carolina, going 9-9-18 in 50 career games.

In the end…

The Caps have alternated good and bad games out of the gate.  If the pattern holds, they would lay an egg at center ice against the Hurricanes.  Carolina has been doing nothing but that so far, though.  They have yet to score first in a game, they have yet to take a lead into the first intermission.  The Hurricanes have trailed at the second intermission in all three games to date.

That brings us back once more to the whole “sticking to the script” idea.  Line 17 in the script says, “no taking bad teams lightly” (okay, we made that up).  And, Carolina can score, at least on paper, with the Brothers Staal, Justin Faulk, and Jeff Skinner in the lineup.  What the Caps should not lack for in this game, even if Nicklas Backstrom’s season debut is put off another game, is offense.  Carolina’s goaltending and defensive depth just is not very impressive.  That should make for an early evening for the competitive portion of the game, so long as the script is being stuck to…or however you’re supposed to end that sentence.

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 1

A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Blackhawks 1

If the Caps played out a dark fantasy of life without Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom on Tuesday in their 5-0 shutout loss to the San Jose Sharks, they displayed what makes them bona fide contenders for a championship this season in their 4-1 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday night.

The Caps were skilled, balanced, focused, and steady.  It started early, even before T.J. Oshie opened the scoring mid-way through the first period.  The Caps outshot the Blackhawks, 6-0, before Oshie lit the lamp for his first goal as a Capital at the 8:48 mark.  With Viktor Tikhonov in the penalty box for an interference call, the Caps needed just 17 seconds to covert the power play opportunity.  Playing the “axle” spot in the Caps’ 1-3-1 formation, Oshie one-timed an Evgeny Kuznetsov pass from the right wing wall past goalie Scott Darling, and the Caps were off and running.

Chicago picked up the offensive pace in the second period, but it was John Carlson who would score the period’s first and only goal.  Taking a Stan Galiev pass at the blue line with his back to the net, Carlson spun and fired a long-range shot that beat Darling on the long side past his blocker.

Matt Niskanen gave the Caps a 3-0 lead early in the third period when he took advantage of the Blackhawks paying too close attention to Marcus Johansson circling out from behind the Chicago net.  Niskanen filled in the high slot, Johansson found him, and Niskanen buried the shot to give the Caps a three-goal lead.

Chicago got that one back barely a minute after the Caps’ goal celebration ended, courtesy of Viktor Svedberg, but that would be as close as the visitors would get.  Alex Ovechkin rounded out the scoring when he snapped a shot from a near-impossible angle at the Chicago goal line off a Kuznetsov feed to make it a happy night for Caps fans.

Other stuff…

-- As prolific a goal scorer as Alex Ovechkin is, this is the first time he recorded goals in the first two games he played since 2012-2013.  He finished that abbreviated season with 32 goals in 48 games (a 55-goal pace).

-- Oshie scores, Ovechkin scores, two goals from defensemen.  But don’t forget the two primary assists from Evgeny Kuznetsov, who looked at home in that spot in the middle of the top line.

-- Marcus Johansson is quietly putting together a nice start to the season. A game-winning goal in the opener and two assists in this game.

-- Unlike Tuesday night, the Caps jumped on Chicago early.  At 5-on-5 they had 20 shot attempts in the first period to nine for the Blackhawks.

-- With the Caps holding the most dangerous lead in hockey – a two-goal lead – they held the Blackhawks without a shot on goal for 7:34 late in the third period, adding Ovechkin’s goal during that span to seal the outcome.

-- Tom Wilson continues to impress in the early going as a more rounded player.  He did not record a point in this game, but in 16:35 in ice time he had three shots on goal, three hits, two blocked shots, and no fights.

-- Chandler Stephenson dressed for his first NHL game.  While his baptism was short (nine shifts – fewest on the team – and 8:43 in ice time), he won five of six faceoffs.

-- John Carlson is certainly getting the chance to expand his role with the departure of Mike Green.  He skated more than 25 minutes for the second straight game.  It was the first time he did that since Games 71 and 72 last season.

-- Braden Holtby played perhaps his most solid game of the young season.  He was not severely tested over long stretches, but he made the stops he had to make when he needed to make them.  The goal he allowed might have been a bit of bad luck as Viktor Svedberg’s initial shot was blocked by T.J. Oshie, but the puck dribbled past Oshie’s leg, allowing Svedberg to step around and get another whack at it.

-- The game within a game…no two players faced off more against one another in this game than Jay Beagle against Jonathan Toews.  Both are accomplished performers in the circle.  They took 12 draws against one another, splitting them right down the middle at six apiece.

In the end…

Sure, the Blackhawks played the night before (and it showed in the third period), and they put their backup goalie out there.  Still, the Caps shut the big guns down.  Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews had but one shot on goal apiece.  If Viktor Svedberg is getting almost a fifth of the shot attempts (10 of 55), it is probably good defense being applied in other places. 

What is perhaps the best takeaway from this game is the business-like effort.  The Caps went out to play a solid game in all three zones and did precisely that.  This, Caps fans, is what “sticking to the script” is going to look like.  Don’t get too “down” over a loss like Tuesday night’s shutout.  Go out and do your job the next night.  They did their job well in this one.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Blackhawks at Capitals, October 15

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The last time that the Washington Capitals and the Chicago Blackhawks met on the ice, 42,832 fans took in one of the most thrilling games of the season, a 3-2 Caps victory at Nationals Park in the Bridgestone Winter Classic.  The winning goal was scored by Troy Brouwer with just 12.9 seconds left in regulation, and Braden Holtby stopped a Patrick Kane drive with one second left to clinch the victory. 

It was arguably the high point of the Capitals’ season.  For the Blackhawks, it was far from it.  In June, they skated the Stanley Cup around United Center for their third championship in six seasons and sixth in club history.

The defending champions visit Verizon Center on Thursday night, jetting in from Philadelphia, where they meet the Flyers on Wednesday night.  Chicago stumbled out of the gate, allowing three first period goals and dropping their season opener to the New York Rangers, 3-2, perhaps a bit distracted from the hoopla that goes with another banner raising for the champs.

The Blackhawks put that loss behind them in short order, spoiling the New York Islanders’ first home game at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, then finishing off the Islanders in their home-and-home set, 4-1, last Saturday.

Fans are well acquainted with the core of the Blackhawks – Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Duncan Keith.  However, Chicago is not being shy about giving youngsters a chance at contributing from responsible positions.  The salary cap demands that the Blackhawks – or any successful team – find a way to integrate younger players into productive roles, and Chicago is having success doing that in the early going.  Teuvo Teravainen, an 18th overall draft pick in 2012 who had four goals and ten points in 18 playoff games last spring, is picking up where he left off last June with a goal and an assist in three games.

Then there is Trevor van Riemsdyk.  The younger brother of James van Riemsdyk of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Trevor went undrafted, playing instead for three years with the University of New Hampshire.  He was signed to a two-year entry level deal by the Blackhawks last July and made the parent club out of training camp.  He has rewarded that vision early on with a goal and an assist in three games, his goal coming on the only shot on goal he has recorded to date.

With the Blackhawks playing Wednesday night in Philadelphia, it is not certain who would get the call in goal for the Blackhawks.  Corey Crawford has split two decisions while posting a save percentage of .921.  What he does not have is much success against Washington.  He is 2-3-1, 3.52, .883 in six career appearances against the Caps, and he has never won in Washington (0-2-1, 4.06, .887).

Backup Scott Darling is, if nothing else, capable of blocking out the sun, a linebacker-sized goaltender (he is 6’6”, 232).  He won in his only start this season, stopping 28 of 29 shots in a 4-1 win over the New York Islanders last Saturday.  He has only 15 career appearances in the NHL, none of them against the Capitals.

Here is how the teams compared in last year’s numbers:

1. Chicago has three Stanley Cups in the last six seasons, but they do not have the most regular season wins over that six-year span.  They have 273 wins (through Tuesday's games), while the Pittsburgh Penguins have 277 (and no Stanley Cups).

2.  Patrick Kane is now his ninth season in the NHL, and he is climbing the charts of all-time Blackhawk scorers.  He currently ranks ninth in points in franchise history (563), just 33 points behind Jeremy Roenick (596 points).  If he records points at approximately his per-game pace over his career (0.97) he would challenge for sixth place on that list if he plays in 82 games this season.  That spot is currently held by Dennis Hull (640 points).

3.  Likewise, Jonathan Toews is highly ranked on the franchise list of goal scorers.  He is currently 13th on the list with 223 goals and could tie or overtake Doug Wilson for 12th place with a big effort on Thursday (225 goals).  With an “average” year in terms of goals per game, he could challenge Bill Moisienko for eighth place on the Blackhawk goal-scoring list (258) before the season is over.

4.  Chicago is one of just five teams who have yet to record a goal scored at 5-on-4 this season.  Their two power play strikes were on a 5-on-3 advantage and a 4-on-3 advantage.

5.  Would it surprise you that Chicago ranks just 18th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (48.1 percent), or that they are 25th in offensive zone starts at 5-on-5 (43.0 percent)?  Yeah, well…it’s early.

1.  If Alex Ovechkin plays, and if he gets three points he will reach the 900-point mark for his career, extending his franchise record for points.  His 897 points is currently 11th among active players in career points, one behind Arizona’s Shane Doan for 10th place.

2.  How much do the Caps miss Nicklas Backstrom?  He is currently second among active players in assists per game (0.74 assists per game; minimum 250 games).

3.  Perhaps it would surprise you that Ovechkin ranks fifth in assists per game among active wingers (0.5532/game; minimum: 250 games), just ahead of Alex Tanguay (0.5519) and Daniel Sedin (0.5474).

4.  The Caps’ Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in close score situations through two games is 49.0, 29th in the league.  It is 38.0 percent in all situations in the first period, 28th in the league.  It’s early (few incidences; numbers from war-on-ice.com), but…woof.

5.  It is perhaps reading too much in the third game of the season, but the Caps have not won a Game 3 of any season in regulation time since the 2008-2009 season (5-1 over the Vancouver Canucks).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Artemi Panarin

Where do they find these guys?  Left wing Patrick Sharp went off to Dallas in free agency, and Artemi Panarin – signed by the Blackhawks out of the KHL on a two-year entry-level deal last April – steps in on the left side, scores the game-winning goal in the season opener and is second on the team in points through three games (2-2-4).  Panarin is something of a late bloomer, or was an under-the-radar player as an amateur.  He went undrafted by any NHL club and did not have an especially noticeable record with Chekhov Vitaz in parts of five seasons in the KHL (29-45-74 in 143 games).  However, in two full seasons with St. Petersburg he lit up the scoreboard, going 46-56-102 in 105 games, leading to his signing by the Blackhawks.  This will be his first meeting against the Capitals.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Okay, it’s only two games, but T.J. Oshie does not yet have a point for his new club. We know he is going to be fine over the 82-game season, and the top line was broken up in Game 2 against the San Jose Sharks because of Alex Ovechkin’s absence from the lineup for personal reasons.  And as early as it is, there are only five Caps with goals and nine with points.  Still, Oshie leads the team in shots with nothing to show for it (although he is not close to having the most shots on goal without a goal; there are 17 players in front of him in shots on goal without a goal through Tuesday’s games).  It would be nice to celebrate a first point/first goal on Thursday.  Oshie is 5-19-24 in 33 career games against Chicago.

In the end…

The opening of the season for the Caps is something of a double-edged sword.  On one side is the fact that they are opening with four home games.  On the other is the fact that they get a couple of tough ones in the middle of that home stand.  The Caps did sweep the two-game series against the Blackhawks last season, both by 3-2 margins.  Further, the Caps have not lost to Chicago in Washington since January 2006 (a 4-3 overtime loss), and they have not lost to the Blackhawks in regulation time on home ice since March 2004 (a 4-3 loss).  It is not a long winning streak (four games), but it is better than a lot of teams can say.

The Capitals got a glimpse on Tuesday of what life would be like without their top two forwards in the lineup. It was not pleasant.  Part of it was missing the players, part of it was two new guys – Justin Williams and Oshie – still integrating themselves into the Caps’ systems, and part of it was just poor play from too many players who did not have an excuse.  Not that there will be any mercy shown by the Blackhawks, but the Caps do have some success at their expense in recent years, especially on home ice.  With Backstrom likely to be out at least one more game and Ovechkin’s status uncertain (though he is expected to play), this game could be a defensive struggle.  The Caps won the last two meetings between the clubs by a 3-2 margin.  Sounds good enough for us.

Capitals 3 – Blackhawks 2

A NO-Point Night -- Game 2: Sharks 5 - Capitals 0

We’ve said this before, but there are 20 games you are going to win, no matter what.  There are 20 games you are going to lose, no matter what.  It’s what you do with the rest of them that make a season a success or a failure.  The Washington Capitals never got to the third of those scenarios against the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night.  This was a loser from the start.

It started with Alex Ovechkin being a no-go at game time for personal reasons.  With Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom on the bench, it was like a Lethal Weapon movie without Mel Gibson and Danny Glover.  There is only so far Joe Pesci is going to carry the story line.

It didn’t get any better with the drop of the puck.  The Caps looked like they had too much Columbus Day celebration hangover in the first period.  Jay Beagle took a penalty less than five minutes in, which the Caps killed successfully.  They were not so fortunate when Brooks Orpik took a tripping call in the 11^th minute.  Joe Thornton converted the power play, redirecting a Bent Burns shot, to give the Sharks first blood.

The Caps escaped the first period with no further damage, but the Sharks added to their lead twice in the second, courtesy of Mike Brown and Tomas Hertl.  That was all the Sharks would need, but they managed a pair of empty net goals in the last two minutes for the final margin.

Other Stuff…

-- The Caps were out-attempted in the first period, 37-13.  That set the tone and emptied whatever was in the Caps’ tank.

-- Dmitry Orlov almost had his first goal in 590 days.  Almost, but for a coach’s challenge that waved off the score.  The officials found that Jay Beagle, whose foot was not in the crease, who did not deny goalie Martin Jones position, and did not prevent Jones from using his blocker to try to fend off the shot, somehow prevented the goalie from “doing his job,” in the words of referee Tim Peel.  Can we just say, it you touch the goalie, it’s an automatic “no goal?”  At least it would be a consistent standard.  What we’re going to get is a hodge-podge of calls that will vary from game-to-game, if not within a game.

-- The Caps allowed two empty net goals.  This ties them with the Boston Bruins for most empty net goals allowed this season (2).

-- If your two top shot makers are Jason Chimera (6) and Brooks Laich (5), chances are there is not going to be a lot of offense generated.

-- Score effects… the Caps had 59 shot attempts over the last two periods to the Sharks’ 22.

-- John Carlson had 11 shot attempts.  The defense had 27 shot attempts overall.

-- The shutout was Martin Jones’ second in three games.  He has stopped 77 of 78 shots in three games to date (.987 save percentage).

-- Jay Beagle was the only Capital to go over 50 percent on faceoffs in this contest (11-for-16/68.8 percent).

-- Here is an unsettling fact… the Caps have now allowed power play goals in six consecutive games in which they faced at least one shorthanded situation, going back to last season (they did not have a shorthanded situation in their game against the Boston Bruins last April 8^th).

-- What was telling about the call on the ice that preceded the disallowed goal is that when Orlov scored, goaltender Martin Jones never even looked at the referee to argue he was interfered with.  A lot of goalies would be in a referee’s face arguing interference in that instance…if they had been interfered with.

In the end…

The Caps were never in this one.  Oh sure, you could say “if Orlov’s goal had counted,” but really?  San Jose was sharper from the outset, more focused for longer stretches of time, applied pressure more consistently, and kept the Caps from getting any follow up shots.  They played a superb road game.

Meanwhile, the Caps had a top line of Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, and Andre Burakovsky to start the game.  By the third period, Burakovsky was not seeing as much ice time (he skated only five shifts and had just 4:16 in ice time in the last frame).  They started with Brooks Laich on the second line with Justin Williams and Marcus Johansson.  Obviously, there were lineup issues with the Caps’ two top scorers on the shelf.

But, this is life in the NHL.  Stuff happens.  Backstrom might be a few days away from a return, and the duration of Ovechkin’s absence is an unknown at the moment.  The best one can say is that the absences provide opportunities for others to step up and, if they can’t be productive, at least they can gain some experience in more responsible roles that will help the club down the line.  That is about as much as one can take away from a game such as this.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: Sharks at Capitals, October 13

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

One game, one win.  So far, so good.  The Washington Capitals try to make it two-in-two when the San Jose Sharks come to town on Tuesday.  The Sharks come into this game – this season, actually – as one true enigma in terms of their history.  Since the NHL went to a 30-team league in the 2000-2001 season, only one team has more wins than the San Jose Sharks (612), the Detroit Red Wings (656).  But despite that regular season success and reaching the postseason in 12 of 14 seasons since the league went to 30 teams, the Sharks have yet to reach a Stanley Cup final in their 24-season history coming into this season.

Last season, the Sharks missed the show for just the second time in 17 seasons, and it cost head coach Todd McLellan his job.  Enter Pete DeBoer, late of the New Jersey Devils and before that the Florida Panthers.  DeBoer, a low key sort, is the kind of coach who can be underrated.  However, he did bring a winning career record, based on standings points (217-200-77), into this season.

The team DeBoer inherits from last season is not radically different from last year’s edition of the Sharks.  Of the 18 skaters to dress for the team in their first two games, 15 of them skated for San Jose last season.  Two of the three additions reveal a bit about what the Sharks’ approach is this season. 

Defenseman Paul Martin signed a four-year/$19.4 million contract with the Sharks this past off-season.  Martin joined the Sharks having appeared in 697 career regular season games and another 85 postseason contests. However, he missed 65 games over the past six seasons, and at the age of 34, there are questions about his durability.  There is also the matter of declining production at the offensive end.  Once a reliable almost-half point a game performer in his years with the New Jersey Devils (0.45 points per game in his last three years with the Devils), his production dropped to 0.37 points per game in five seasons with Pittsburgh before moving on to San Jose.  He does remain a minutes-eater when he is in the lineup.  In 11 seasons entering this one he never averaged less than 20 minutes a game and has not averaged less than 22:30 per game since his rookie season.

The other veteran the Sharks signed in the off-season was former Capital Joel Ward.  He is coming off his two most productive seasons in the NHL with 43 goals recorded over those two years.  He became a quite efficient shooter with the Capitals, shooting to a 15.8 shooting percentage over his last three years in Washington.  As he prepares to return to Verizon Center to face the Caps, here is your odd Joel Ward fact.  The Caps are the only team in the league against which he has not recorded a point in his career.  Sure, it is only four games of history he has against the Caps, but still, it is the only one of 30 against which he is looking for his first career point.

In goal is where the Sharks might have made the biggest changes in the offseason. Last season, Antti Niemi took the bulk of the work, appearing in 61 games.  He was not especially impressive.  His 2.59 goals against average ranked  24^th of 30 goalies appearing in at least 41 games; his .914 save percentage ranked 20^th.  In nine of his 61 starts he had a save percentage of .850 or worse, tied for the fifth highest total of such games in the league in that group and the 10^th highest share of starts.

Niemi is in Dallas now, with the Stars, and Martin Jones appears to have the number one duties.  Jones took a bit of a roundabout path to San Jose last summer, going from the Los Angeles Kings to the Boston Bruins last June, along with a 2015 first round draft pick (13^th overall) for Milan Lucic.  The Bruins then turned around and sent Jones back to the west coast for a 2016 first round draft pick and a prospect from the Sharks.

Jones had a noteworthy first year in the NHL, going 12-6-0, 1.81, .934 with four shutouts in 2013-2014.  He slipped a bit last season, going 4-5-2, 2.25, .906 with three shutouts.  He is off to a fine start with the Sharks, though, winning both of his starts and allowing just one goal on 47 shots against the Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings.  He has never faced the Caps.

Here is how the clubs fared last season…

1.  Since 2006-2007, only two teams have two players ranking in the top 20 in goals scored, all of those goals scored with just one team.  Pittsburgh is one (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin), San Jose is the other with Patrick Marleau (7^th with 271 goals) and Joe Pavelski (20^th with 229 goals).

2.  Marleau needs just nine points to reach 1,000 for his career.  He probably will not reach this milestone against the Caps.

3.  No goalie has as many shutouts in as few career games as Martin Jones, ever.  Eight shutouts in 36 games played.

4.  Either the San Jose Sharks are a young franchise, they haven’t been very good for much of their history, or Logan Couture is one fine hockey player.  Call it “all of the above.”  Couture ranks seventh on the all-time list of Sharks goal scorers, despite being in the league for just six-plus seasons and 381 games.  He has 139 career goals.

5.  Joe Thornton reigns supreme among assist leaders since the 2004-2005 lockout.  His 641 assists are 39 more than the 602 by Henrik Sedin.

1.  The race is on.  Who will be the next and 43^rd player in NHL history to reach the 500 goal mark?  Chicago’s Marian Hossa stands at 486 (he has none in three games so far this season), while Alex Ovechkin sits at 476 with the goal he scored in the opener against the New Jersey Devils.

2.  Ovechkin is three points shy of 900 for his career.  Only seven active players have hit that milestone: Jaromir Jagr (1,804), Joe Thornton (1,261), Jarome Iginla (1,228), Marian Hossa (1,058), Patrick Marleau (991), Henrik Sedin (916), and Brad Richards (904).

3.  The last time the Caps opened the season with two games at home, the Caps won both – a 4-3 overtime win over the Carolina Hurricanes and a 6-5 trick shot win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2011-2012.

4.  It was one game, but an offensive zone start share of 60.0 percent and a Corsi-for percentage of 47.1 at 5-on-5 against New Jersey qualifies as something to work on.

5. The Caps had five players record multi-point games in the opener.  That has already tied the high for players with multi-point games last season, accomplished twice -- a 5-4 win at Columbus on December 18th and a 6-1 win against the Buffalo Sabres on March 7th.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Joonas Donskoi

Joonas Donskoi is the third Shark skater new to the club this season so far.  Donskoi, a former fourth round draft pick (2010) of the Florida Panthers, is playing in his first season of pro hockey in North America after signing an entry level contract with the Sharks last May.  Until this season, the right winger has been playing in Finland, with Karpat Oulu, where he had 19 goals and 49 points in 58 regular season games and was the Finnish league playoff MVP last season.  He had a goal in his NHL debut against the Kings last Wednesday, and he is something of a gifted shootout performer (see his effort against Sergei Bobrovsky 4:30 into this clip). 

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Only two players for the St. Louis Blues since the 2004-2005 lockout have more four-point games than T.J. Oshie – David Backes (4) and Alex Steen (3).  OK, so Oshie has two, but one of those was against the San Jose Sharks, last January 3^rd.  He had a hat trick – one of two in his career – in the Blues’ 7-2 win over San Jose.  Oshie did not record a shot on goal in the Caps’ 5-3 Opening Night win over the Devils, a repeat of his opener against the New York Rangers last season.  He had a bit of a slow start last season – no points in his first six games, no goals in his first eight contests, but he did go 19-35-54 in his last 64 games.  There are some fans who might obsess about his being silent in his opener with the Caps.  Don’t.  He’ll be fine.

In the end…

The Caps will move up in weight class with their opponent for this game.  San Jose has been good through two games, a pounding of the Kings (5-1) and a whitewashing of the Ducks (2-0) to open their season.  Then again, last season the Sharks were 7-7-2 in games played in the Eastern time zone (they beat the Caps in a Gimmick at Verizon Center).  You can think of this as the Sharks moving up in weight class as well, if not in terms of the opponent, then in terms of the circumstances.

For the Caps it is a chance to test their depth against a team that is better than the Devils team they faced on Saturday.  And, there will not be the distractions that go along with an Opening Night celebration.  This game might not have the offensive fireworks that the opener had, but it should have the same result.

Capitals 3 – Sharks 2

The Peerless Prognosticator Looks At... Team Themes

And now we take up the topic of “themes.”  Sports is an odd duck.  There are so many cheesy inspirational tricks teams use to inspire and motivate.  Locker room speeches, post-game game balls, signs on the walls offering an inspiring quote.  With the Internet, we have the opportunity to see what theme a team wishes to convey to its fans for the season at hand.  The NHL is no different.  If you browse through their Web sites, you will find that not all teams go down this path, but a fair number of them do.  Some of the themes teams are promoting this season…

Buffalo Sabres: “Next Chapter.”  The Sabres have finished out of the postseason the last four years and last in their division the last two seasons.  They switched coaches, bringing Dan Bylsma in to try to recreate that old Pittsburgh Penguin magic.  Well, you can’t spell “Bylsma” without “bile”…or something like that.  The “Next Chapter” might be written by Stephen King.

Columbus Blue Jackets: “March with Us.”  Oh, we get it…”march with us.”  A Civil War thing.  They’ve even got a whole speech.  We’re wondering, though…what’s up with “literally putting pucks in the net?”  What would “figuratively putting pucks in the net" be?  Oh, the Blue Jacket offense.

Detroit Red Wings: “It’s More Than Hockey.”  Really?  You’ve got 11 Stanley Cups, four of them in the last 20 years.  You’ve made the playoffs for 24 straight seasons.  The last time you missed the postseason, Jaromir Jagr wasn’t even in the NHL.  “More than Hockey? “  Maybe it’s weekend escapes to Zug Island. 

Los Angeles Kings: “We Are All Kings.”  All of us?  Even the women in the fan base?  Seems a bit un-California-like.  Maybe y’all should should be “happy we won two Stanley Cups in the last three years.”  But that’s a bit much to put on the banner of a Web page.

Minnesota Wild: “This is the State of Hockey.”  These folks are serious.  This “State of Hockey” thing… there’s a book about it.  There is a Twitter feed.   There’s even a freakin’ anthem about it.  “State of Hockey?” More like “State of Obsession.”

New Jersey Devils: "#relentless."  If you click on the “#relentless” link on the Devils’ home page, you will be ushered to another “new chapter” thing.  Somehow, “new chapter” doesn’t capture what is going on in Jersey.  After three Stanley Cups and two other finals appearances in 17 seasons, the Devils have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.  New chapter?  Maybe time for a new book.

New York Rangers: “We Are Rangerstown.”  If Guy Fieri was a hockey commentator, this would be his catch phrase for the Rangers.  But really, “Rangerstown?” And don’t forget the “Rangers”…with that “S” to provide the subtle sense of team and community.  It almost sounds Norman Rockwellian, if eight gazillion people on an island can be thought of as Norman Rockwellian.

Ottawa Senators; “United in Red.”  So, who got here first, the Senators or the Albany Devils?  OK, Ottawa has been doing this for a little while, but it still has the vague ring of a B-grade horror flick that should be starring Vincent Price.

San Jose Sharks: “25 Years of Teal.”  Uh, is this a Martha Stewart thing?  Now, keep in mind, a “teal” is actually a freshwater duck.  There seems to be some confusion out there among the California teams about their identity.  Or maybe “teal” is a synonym for “underachievement.”

Vancouver Canucks: “#PlayForThis.” This one is pretty sneaky.  If you click on the “#PlayForThis” link on the Canucks home page, you are directed to the “Tickets” page.  So, apparently, “This” in “PlayForThis” is hockey revenue.

And there you have it, a sampling of team themes for 2015-2016.  It makes you wonder what the Capitals might use, were they so inclined.  Oh sure, we’re all familiar with the whole “Rock the Red” theme, but it has a bit of age on it.  Perhaps something to freshen things up…

• “#StartingOurFifthDecadeOfFrustration”
• “#It’sAllYourFault”
• “#We’reNotTheRedskins”
• “#WhatISaCapitalAnyway?”
• “#ThirdRoundOrBust”

It's a work in progress, but you get the idea.

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 1: Capitals 5 - Devils 3

The Caps made it 1-0-0 to start the 2015-2016 season, and we have a recap of the night over at Japers’ Rink.  We did have some other thoughts on the game, though...

• Two things that need to be retired, the “red carpet” gala (this isn’t Hollywood) and the “sky-cam.”  The former seemed like a distraction (knowing full well that the fans in attendance seemed to love it), a number of players making reference to it in the post-game Q-and-A.  Then there is the sky-cam.  Once upon a time I thought this might be a good idea, but unless they can use one that is the size of a deck of cards (and transparent), not to mention better imaging from the camera (it looked a bit distorted), this doesn’t seem like all that great an idea.
• Why does it seem that teams work their power play differently at 5-on-3 than on a 5-on-4 man advantage?  The Caps had the best power play in the league last year, and they still have formidable personnel on that unit.  But it looked so much different at 5-on-3 than at 5-on-4, and not in a good way.  It always seems to be a case of holding the puck for the perfect pass. 
• I will never cease to be amazed at the pure athletic skill of hockey players.  How soft do your hands have to be to skate down the wing at speed, thread the puck through a defenseman’s legs, and chip the puck over the shoulder of the goalie with a fine touch? 
• The Caps certainly started slowly, despite the two first period goals.  They had eight shots on goal in the first 29 minutes, six of them by defensemen.  Brooks Orpik and John Carlson were the only Caps with more than one shot.  That was probably not part of the game plan.  Still, they wrapped things up with 19 shots on goal in the last 31 minutes and out-attempted the Devils for the game overall, 54-51.
• Even this early in the season, back-to-back games have their price.  The Devils played last night, and on this night in Washington they took four third period penalties.  Two were of the obstruction kind – holding to David Schlemko and hooking to Adam Henrique.
• Five Caps had multi-point games: Matt Niskanen (1-1-2), Alex Ovechkin (1-1-2), Justin Williams (0-2-2), Jason Chimera (1-1-2), and John Carlson (0-2-2).
• The Caps were awful in the faceoff circle early.  They lost five of the first six draws and 12 of 22 in the first period (45.5 percent).  However, like much of their game, they did much better after the first intermission, going 28-for-46 in the last two periods (60.9 percent).
• Tom Wilson shook off the tweak he suffered in the second period to finish the game with 13:41 in ice time, a number he topped only 12 times last season.  However, he was the only forward that did not record a shot attempt for the game.
• For a game with eight goals scored, the goaltending wasn’t bad.  Keith Kinkaid made a number of big saves, including a point blank denial of a T.J. Oshie backhand when the Caps broke in with a two-on-none break.  Braden Holtby’s stop of an Adam Henrique break was arguably the turning point for the Caps.
• Giving up three goals should not be a surprise as far as Braden Holtby is concerned. This is the third time in his last four season first games that he has allowed three or more.  He allowed six in a 6-3 loss to Tampa Bay to open the abbreviated 2013 season, five in a 6-4 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks to open the 2013-2014 season.  In his last four season first games he is 1-2-1, 3.70, .866.

In the end…

It certainly was not pretty, but there are no style points here.  Two points is two points.  And all in all, you have to like that the Captain scored a goal and had a multi-point night, and that one of the new guys – Justin Williams – had a multi-point night.  Even T.J. Oshie had his chances.  Then there was Brooks Orpik doing something he had never done in a Caps uniform – score a goal.  There was almost something for everyone.  But with the Caps falling victim to the twin scourges of allowing a goal on the next shift after scoring one themselves, as well as coughing up a two-goal lead, there will be things for the coaches to work on before the Caps face San Jose on Tuesday.