Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Defensemen: Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen

“The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies.”

-- Napoleon Bonaparte

When last we saw Matt Niskanen on the ice in a game that mattered, he was in the low slot trying to defend a shot by Pittsburgh Penguin Carl Hagelin that somehow snuck between his legs, and as he turned to his next defensive assignment to clear away any rebound, he saw Nick Bonino tuck that rebound past the right pad of Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby for the game-winning, series-clinching goal in the Eastern Conference semifinals.  The Caps went home for the summer; the Penguins went on to win the Stanley Cup.

That is the chaos in which Matt Niskanen and most players in the NHL live.  Niskanen and the Caps have found the task of navigating the chaos one that can be mastered in the regular season over the past two years.  The Caps and Niskanen have expressed a certain consistency.  In each of the last two seasons, the Caps topped the 100-point mark in the standings.  In both seasons, Nickanen appeared in all 82 games, and he posted remarkably similar top-end numbers.  In 2014-2015 he was 4-27-31, plus-7; while in 2015-2016 he was 5-27-32, plus-10.  As we pointed out in looking at his ten-game splits at the end of last season,  those ten-game splits were remarkable for their consistency in points produced (no fewer than three, no more than five in any ten-game segment).  In the land of chaos, Niskanen was an island of constancy.

The playoffs have been another matter.  In each of the last two seasons the Caps and Niskanen reached the second round, but advanced no farther.  Niskanen has yet to record his first postseason goal as a Capital, having gone 26 games over the last two postseasons without finding the back of the net.  Niskanen has not been an especially efficient shooter for the Caps, his 3.4 percent shooting percentage the lowest among the three teams for which he played in the NHL. But even with that shooting percentage in the postseason, he would have had a playoff goal or two.

That is the thin margin on which success and disappointment live, because as in many instances of supplemental scorers, even on defense, Niskanen’s contributions mattered.  The Caps were 5-0-0 in the regular season last year when he scored a goal, 23-1-4 in games in which he recorded a point.  He was also a capable possession player, posting a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 of 51.12 percent, following on a 51.95 percent year in 2014-2015 with the Caps.

Fearless’ Take…

Niskanen has not only been durable for the Caps, appearing in all 164 regular season and 26 postseason games since joining the club, but he has been a minutes-eater, too.  He averaged 24:40 in ice time last season, the third highest total among Washington defensemen in the post-2004-2005 lockout era for the Caps.  He led the Caps defensemen in both even strength and shorthanded ice time per game and was second among that group in power play ice time (to John Carlson).  He is the only Capital defenseman in the post-2004-2005 lockout era to have appeared in at least 50 games in a season and averaged 19 or more even strength minutes, more than two power play minutes, and more than two shorthanded minutes per game.

Cheerless’ Take…

Maybe Niskanen going silent in the playoffs shouldn’t have been a surprise.  In his last 15 regular season games last year he went 0-3-3.  He didn’t score a goal in his last 17 regular season games, meaning he went 29 games without a goal to end the season.  Those ten-game splits Peerless looked at also showed that while he was a plus-16 over his first five ten-game segments, he was a minus-2 in each of his last three segments.  He had a similar drought to end the 2014-2015 regular season – one goal in his last 22 games and none in 14 postseason games.

The Big Question… Is there a little more in Niskanen’s game, especially in the postseason?

As noted, Niskanen had similar numbers in his first two years with the Caps -- 4-27-31, plus-7 two years ago and 5-27-32, plus-10 last season.  They look a lot like his per-82 game average for his career (6-23-29, plus-7).  Before arriving in Washington he was 3-15-18 in 55 postseason games (5-22-27) but is 0-7-7 in 26 postseason games with the Caps.  It brings to mind a quote from Crash Davis in the movie “Bull Durham”…

“There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium.”

Well, there are two months in a playoff season.  For a Cup finalist that’s about nine weeks, about 25 games.  That means if you just get one goal, maybe two – a knuckleball, a shot off a post, you get a shot from the point with eyes…just one, maybe two…and you’re skating around the rink with a Cup.

If Niskanen replicated his postseason shooting percentage with the Dallas Stars and the Pittsburgh Penguins with the Caps, it would have meant just one goal on 39 shots.  But that one goal, at the right time, might be the difference in a game or a series.  Remember, this is a team that was eliminated in overtime in each of the past two seasons.  That’s how thin that margin can be between success and disappointment.

In the end…

Matt Niskanen hasn’t had that seeing-eye puck in the postseason.  He’s hardly alone, and the Caps haven’t advanced past the second round in the last 11 trips to the postseason.  Niskanen is hardly a cause.  He is a symptom.  He and the team just haven’t found that lucky bounce or fluke goal that propels them onward.  He has never been a big goal scorer, even by defenseman standards.  Only once has he reached double digits in goals in a season (2013-2014 in Pittsburgh).  But if he can find the net once or twice at the right time, the Caps could find themselves making lives disappointing for others.  Maybe it’s just a case of finding a way to control the chaos.

Projection: 82 games, 6-26-32, plus-10

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Defensemen: Taylor Chorney

Taylor Chorney

“Our deeds disguise us. People need endless time to try on their deeds, until each knows the proper deeds for him to do. But every day, every hour, rushes by. There is no time.”

-- John Locke

On July 1, 2015, the Washington Capitals signed free agent defenseman Taylor Chorney to a one-year/$700,000 contract.  It was one of those deals that show up in the list-keeping of web sites tracking free agent signings, but it was a “depth defenseman” signing that merited little more attention.  Small wonder.  In parts of five seasons with three NHL teams, Chorney appeared in 68 games, only once appearing in more than a dozen games in a season (42 games with the Edmonton Oilers in 2009-2010).  The Caps looked rather set on the blue line with John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Brooks Orpik, Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov, and Nate Schmidt penciled into the six regular roster spots.  Chorney was a seventh defenseman, a player with some NHL experience who served as insurance against injuries.

And so it came to pass.  John Carlson missed 25 games in two blocks with an ankle injury.  Brooks Orpik missed half the season with a cracked femur.  Chorney was pushed into service, appearing in 55 games (14 more than Orpik and just one fewer than Carlson), almost doubling his career total.  If he was a liability filling an emergency role, it was not readily apparent, at least in the regular season.  The Caps were 40-10-5 in the 55 games in which he appeared (a 127-point pace) and 16-8-3 in the 27 games he sat out (a 106-point pace).

Despite not being an obvious liability, at least as far as his presence for wins and losses is concerned, his contributions at the offensive end were rather meager.  He did tie a career high in goals (one), and he set career bests in assists (five) and points (six).  On the other hand, he exceeded his career total going into last season in hits (56 to 54) and penalty minutes (21 to 16).  Chorney contributed in other, less obvious ways, the Caps going 15-3-1 when he recorded two or more blocked shots and 14-2-1 when he recorded two or more hits.

Fearless’ Take…

Taylor Chorney had the third fewest Corsi events against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 among the eight Caps defensemen logging at least 100 5-on-5 minutes.  He wasn’t facing opponents’ top scoring units at fives, but it is still a respectable result. 

Cheerless’ Take…

That Corsi-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 doesn’t mean as much when your Corsi-for at fives is second worst on the team among that same group (only Mike Weber was worse).  He skated at least 50 5-on-5 minutes with three defensemen -- Dmitry Orlov, Nate Schmidt, and Aaron Ness -- and each of them had better Corsi-for numbers at 5-on-5 than they had with Chorney (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  And cuz, you can’t hide in the playoffs.  Chorney getting a sweater was, well, less than the Capitals hoped for.  The Caps were 1-6 in games in which he played, including all four losses to the Penguins.  He had one point, two shots on goal, and was on ice for only one goal that the Caps scored in the postseason (the one he assisted on in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Penguins in Game 4).

The Big Question… Is Taylor Chorney the preferred option as “seventh defenseman” for the Caps?

The Caps though enough of Chorney’s ability to fill in when Brooks Orpik and John Carlson went down to re-sign him to a two-year deal at $800,000 a year.  Now that he is in the fold, and Mike Weber (obtained in a late season deal with the Buffalo Sabres) no longer with the club, Chorney appears to be the default option as the seventh defenseman.  As last season suggested, though, it is one thing to fill in capably in that role in the regular season, even to log significant game time, but the playoffs are another matter.  Madison Bowey might be a year away from stepping up to the big club, Jonas Siegenthaler and 2016 first round draft pick Lucas Johansen is likely to be further off still.  Aaron Ness got a brief look last season but has only 37 games of NHL experience.   For the moment, Chorney is the guy to fill that seventh defenseman role, but one has to wonder if the Caps won’t be looking, just as they did last spring when they traded for Weber.

In the end…

Taylor Chorney’s 2015-2016 season was something of a double-edged sword.  Circumstances forced him into a larger role than he played with any other club for which he played, and he performed capably in many respects.  But seventh defensemen are in that role for a reason, and in that respect Chorney was dealt something of a bad hand in the postseason.  No one would have thought he would appear in seven playoff games, and in retrospect the decision to play him in Game 6 against the Penguins in the second round in place of Nate Schmidt is one that is open to second-guessing (the Caps were 6-4 in postseason games in which Schmidt played, including both wins against the Penguins in the second round).  He had to take the minutes that Karl Alzner had to forfeit when his groin gave out in the first period of Game 6 and was on the ice, and had the misfortune of being not quite capable of tying up Carl Hagelin as the game’s final scoring sequence began.

What last season demonstrated is what might be said of many players in his role.  Some exposure is not necessarily bad, but more is not necessarily better.  And, he can be overexposed when having to play more minutes against tougher opposition.   The postseason rushes by so fast that any player in that role thrust into that situation just has to go out and do what they can, but it is not a situation the Caps will want to repeat in 2016-2017.

Projection: 28 games, 0-3-3, plus-2

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

“Headlines, in a way, are what mislead you because bad news is a headline, and gradual improvement is not.”

-- Bill Gates

If we posed the question, “Over the last two seasons, how many defensemen have appeared in at least 100 games and averaged at least two-thirds of a point per game?,” many could probably name Erik Karlsson (0.90 points per game), Kris Letang (0.86), P,K. Subban (0.74), and Brent Burns (0.82).  The more savvy hockey fan might know of Mark Giordano (0.73), Roman Josi (0.72), or Kevin Shattenkirk (0.69). Still others might identify John Klingberg (0.70) after his breakout season in 2015-2016.  That makes eight defensemen, but there are nine on this list. 

John Carlson is that ninth defenseman to average at least two-thirds of a point per game in at least 100 games over the past two seasons (0.68).  He established career bests in both assists per game (0.55) and points per game (0.70) last season, despite missing 25 games over two stretches with a fractured ankle, the first injury of his career to send him to the sideline.

Oddly, perhaps, the Caps did suffer undue harm with Carlson’s absence last season.  Washington was 39-11-6 with Carlson in the lineup (a 123-point pace over a full season, 17-7-2 in his absence (a 114-point pace that still would have won the Presidents Trophy).  But that is not to sell his contributions short.  The Caps were 24-2-3 when he recorded a point, 8-0-0 when he scored a goal. 

Carlson was also a minutes-eater.  He was over 25 minutes in ice time in 18 of his 56 games and skated less than 20 minutes only four times.  The down side of that is that the Caps were just 11-5-2 in those 18 games, 28-6-4 when Carlson skated less than 25 minutes.

As a possession player, Carlson has spent much of his six full seasons in the league dancing on either side of 50 percent Corsi-for.  But last season was another instance of adding a solid season to the one he had before.  After posting a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 of 51.26 percent in 2014-2015, Carlson finished at 50.49 percent last season, fifth among seven Caps with at least 250 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Fearless’ Take…

Only two defensemen in Caps history played more games for the club by the age of 26 than John Carlson (Kevin Hatcher: 613, Scott Stevens: 601).  With 454 regular season games on his resume, he should become the 11^th Caps defenseman in franchise history to reach the 500-game mark with the club.  He is also making his way up the franchise list in goals (ninth among defensemen with 53), assists (ninth with 175), points (eighth with 228), power play goals (tied for ninth with 15).  What set Carlson apart last season, though, was his postseason performance.   Going into the playoffs, Carlson had six career goals in 51 games.  He had five in 12 postseason games last spring.  He started the playoffs with 19 career points, then added 12 in 12 games.  Carlson is now tied for fourth in playoff goals by a Capitals defenseman (11, with Al Iafrate) and is tied for fifth in postseason points by a Capitals defenseman (31, with Sergei Gonchar).  He is now tied with Mike Green as the all-time franchise leader in playoff power play goals (6).

Cheerless’ Take…

More minutes in the playoffs for Carlson was a pretty good indicator of how the Caps did.  Eight games he skated more than 25 minutes, and the Caps were 2-6.  They won all four games in which he skated less than 25 minutes.  But before that, it was a sort of odd year for Carlson, points-wise.  He started the year going 2-8-10, plus-3 in his first seven games, and he was 2-6-8, plus-7 in his last nine games.  In his middle 40 games, though, he was a comparatively quiet 4-17-21, plus-6.  Not bad, certainly, but just a bit…odd, even with his injury.

The Big Question…  Can John Carlson get into the Norris Trophy conversation in 2016-2017?

John Carlson has been inching his way upward into the upper echelon of NHL defensemen since he came into the league in 2010.  What he has not yet done is make a clear case to be included in the conversation of elite NHL defensemen and, by extension, Norris Trophy contenders.  If you look at the finalists and winners in the post-2004-2005 lockout era, the profile of a worthy defenseman is not as clear as one might think.  Overall, the average finalist, on a per-82 game basis, does tend to have top-end offensive skills (17-47-64, plus-19).  Winners do not have a clearly superior offensive profile to other finalists (15-51-66, plus 22 for winners versus 17-45-62, plus-18 for other finalists).  At an individual level, though, there is considerable variation among winners.  Niklas Lidstrom won with 80 points in 2006, but three years later Zdeno Chara won with having scored “only” 50 points.  Duncan Keith won in 2014 with just six goals.  Last year, Drew Doughty won with 51 points. 

So where does John Carlson enter this conversation?  Carlson, until last season, played in the shadow of Mike Green (perhaps a shadow that could not have been cast as long, given Green’s injury and performance history in his later years with the Caps).  He is not a flashy player, but he is (save for some bouts of inconsistency) an effective one.  His offensive numbers over the last two seasons, while not at the level of, say, an Erik Karlsson, are not disqualifying, given the history of Norris finalists.  It would not take a lot, especially if the Caps continue to be among the league’s top teams with the exposure that brings, for Carlson to step into the conversation for the Norris Trophy in 2015-2016. 

In the end…

John Carlson has hit almost all his developmental marks faithfully over the last half dozen seasons.  He has taken over for Mike Green as the top offensive defenseman on the club, but he needs to display more consistency in his own end.  The odd part of his offense, though, is that he is not quite yet an elite power play quarterback.  Limited to 56 games last season, his per-82 game power play scoring rate (3-18-21) would not have had him in the top-15 among defensemen and, in fact, would have still trailed Mike Green in Detroit.  Growing his power play numbers could be a chore, given that the power play generally goes through Nicklas Backstrom, although Carlson has improved his ability to feed Alex Ovechkin for one-timers (a skill at which Green was gifted).  His ability to grow this part of his game and improve his defensive consistency would not just improve his Norris Trophy chances, but could very well be the “secret ingredient” to finding playoff success.  And those would be the headlines he and the team would rather inspire.

Projection: 80 games, 15-48-63, plus-17

Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

“Everything yields to diligence.”

-- Antiphanes

Over the last six seasons, five NHL players have appeared in every regular season on their respective schedules.  Only two of those players did it with one team.  There is Patrick Marleau with the San Jose Sharks, and there is Karl Alzner with the Washington Capitals.  At the age of 28, Alzner is now tenth on the all-time Capitals franchise list in games played by a defenseman (509).  He is seventh on the franchise list of postseason games played. 

The durability has served Alzner well in his career in Washington, but “durable” is not a synonym for “indestructible.”   It came apart for Alzner and the Caps at the worst possible moment last spring in the second round of the playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Early in Game 6, with the Caps needing a win to force a seventh game in Washington, Alzner aggravated a groin injury he originally suffered in the first round series against the Philadelphia Flyers.  He played sparingly in the rest of the first period and took only two shifts in the second period before sitting out the rest of the contest, one that the Caps lost, 4-3, in overtime.  The game-winning goal came with Alzner’s partner, Matt Niskanen, on the ice, but it was Taylor Chorney filling in at the other side of the defensive pair on the series-clinching goal.  Alzner played only 5:16 in the loss.  It was the second lowest amount of ice time for a Capital defenseman in a game in the post-2004-2005 lockout era (Jeff Schultz skated 2:23 in a 6-3 Game 3 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2008).

Alzner had sports hernia surgery in June to repair the “pelvic floor,” and he was able to answer the call for training camp.  It is a welcome sign, not because Alzner is going to put up big offensive numbers.  He has never posted more than five goals in a season, and last season he tied his career best of 21 points.   He has 16 career goals with the Caps.  Eight defensemen in team history have had that many or more in a single season (20 occurrences among them).

Alzner’s 2015-2016 season (4-17-21, plus-14) was almost a replica of his 2014-2015 (5-16-21, plus-14) season.  What is masked, though, was a bit of a saw-tooth pattern in his possession numbers in his six full seasons in Washington.  Up, then down, then up, etc.  In 2015-2016 it was a down year, dropping from a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 51.04 percent in 2014-2015 to 49.56 last season (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  That was sixth among eight defensemen for the Caps with at least 100 5-on-5 minutes.

Fearless’ Take…

Alzner has developed, within the arbitrary rules of crediting certain statistics, a grittier element to his game.  Over the last three seasons his hits increased from 73 to 120 to 135 (all in 82 games), and his blocked shots rose from 158 to 165 to 207.  The 207 blocked shots in 82 games allowed Alzner to finish tenth in the league in blocked shots per game.  He also set a personal best in ice time per game last season, finishing with an average of 21:23 per game.  There is also an unsung part of his offensive game that merits mention.  He is one of four Capitals defensemen over the last two seasons with a shooting percentage of at least 6.0 percent (6.1) and one of only two (John Carlson: 6.3 percent) having played in both seasons (minimum: 50 games total).

Cheerless’ Take…

Yeah well, be careful what you wish for as far as that grittership thing goes, cuz.  In games last year in which Alzner had four or more hits, the Caps were 5-2-3.  And it didn’t even matter in the postseason.  When he had two or more hits, the Caps were 3-3, and when he didn’t have multiple hit games, they were 3-3.  Of course, if he (or other Caps) are doing the hitting, the other team has the puck, so there is that.  The weird thing in the postseason, though, was how the shot blocking thing let him and the team down.  Maybe it was circumstance, but in game in which he had multiple blocked shots, the Caps were 5-1.  When he didn’t, the Caps were 1-5.

The Big Question… Will the physical issues Alzner had last season carry over into this season?

In addition to the groin injury that ended his season in the Caps’ last game, Alzner dealt with a number of other injuries last season – broken thumb, strained oblique, hip flexor.  None of these would typically be thought of as mere nuisance injuries.  His ability to grip a stick and to skate would be expected to be significantly impacted.  After surgery and a summer of recuperation, the question will be if Alzner will hit the ground running (or the ice skating) to start the 2015-2016 season, and to the extent he is not quite 100 percent, how long will he be playing catch-up?  Caps fans might be concerned more that Alzner is 100 percent for the postseason, but one does not want to see him in “catch-up” mode all season, either. 

In the end…

This is the dreaded (if you are a Caps fan) “walk year” for Karl Alzner.  His four-year/$11.2 million deal expires at the end of this season, and he will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of it.  The neighborhood he currently inhabits among defensemen of similar age (Alzner is 28) includes the likes of Carl Gunnarsson, Adam McQuaid, and Brendan Smith (all within two years of Alzner’s age and within $200,000 of his AAV).  One would have to think that if he has a year this season similar to the last two, that Alzner will be in for a substantial increase in compensation.  It would not be to the heights of those thought of more as offensive defensemen, since high-end compensation tends to skew to players with greater offensive skills than Alzner, but it would not be unreasonable to think his next contract would top $4 million in AAV (remember, John Carlson’s contract with a $3.967 million AAV took effect in 2012-2013, and his is up after the 2017-2018 season).  It its way, Alzner’s situation – one arrived at by diligence and dependability – is just one more indicator that this is a big season for the Washington Capitals.

Projection: 80 games, 5-18-23, plus-13

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Daniel Winnik

Daniel Winnik

“Sure I am of this, that you have only to endure to conquer.”

-- Winston Churchill

Getting a phone call late at night can be a harrowing event, whether good news or bad news comes with it.  When Daniel Winnik got that call last February, the timing might have been unique, but the nature of the call was not.  It was news of a trade, one that would send him and a fifth round draft pick from the Toronto Maple Leafs to the Washington Capitals for long-time Capital Brooks Laich, defenseman Connor Carrick, and a second round draft pick. 

For Winnik, it would be his seventh NHL organization since he was a ninth-round draft pick of the Phoenix Coyotes in 2004.  In his ninth NHL season, Winnik brought 625 games of NHL experience to replace the 742 games that Laich had with the Capitals over 12 seasons.  In none of his previous eight seasons had Winnik recorded as many as a dozen goals, and only once – in 2014-2015 for two teams – did he finish a season with more than 30 points.  If you are looking at his record by team, Winnik did not record as many as 20 goals for any of the previous six teams for which he played, and only once – with the Coyotes – did he record as many as 50 points (52 in 202 games).  One could respect Winnik carving out such a long career out of being a ninth round draft pick (a surprisingly fertile ninth round as these things go) , but it was reasonable to keep expectations to a minimum.

If one was expecting that he would carry over his production displayed with the Maple Leafs in 2015-2016, their foresight would be rewarded.  Winnik finished 2-3-5 in 20 games with the Caps after going 4-19-14 in 56 games with Toronto, leaving him with the same points per game record with both clubs in 2015-2016 (0.25).  You could say he was a marginal improvement on the principal player he replaced – Brooks Laich.  He had two goals in 20 games to one in 60 for Laich.  There were three assists in 20 games for Winnik to six in 60 for Laich.  But what might have been the biggest plus on Winnik’s side of the ledger is that his contract average annual value is half ($2.25 million) that of Laich ($4.5 million), not to mention the fact that he is almost two years younger.

Fearless’ Take…

For a guy who gets little in the way of top-six forward time, he has respectable possession numbers over his career.  Overall, he is 49.99 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 over his nine seasons, and he was 54.14 percent in his 20 regular season games with the Caps.  Just about as impressive, his Corsi-for at fives with the score tied was 55.0 percent (numbers from Corsica.hockey).   And, as is often the case regarding role players, his supplemental scoring mattered.  The Caps won all four games in which he recorded at least one point. 

Cheerless’ Take…

Now cuz, you are aware the Caps were only 10-6-4 in the 20 games in which he played?  The weird part of that was the Caps being only 4-3-2 in home games in which he played.  And in games not played against teams from Tennessee, he didn’t have a goal (both of his goals for the Caps came against the Nashville Predators in a 4-1 win on March 18^th).  Then there were the playoffs.  No goals, no assists, and now points in 12 games.  He is 0-for-45 in goal-scoring in playoff games, 0-for-56 in shooting over six postseason appearances. 

The Big Question… After almost nine seasons in other organizations, can Daniel Winnik find another level of production with the Capitals?

If you look at Daniel Winnik’s production across the teams for which he played, his production looks remarkably similar.  There were the 0.09 goals per game with the Phoenix Coyotes, the 0.10 goals per game with Anaheim, Toronto, and Pittsburgh.  There were the 0.11 goals per game with Colorado.  He had 0.10 goals per game in a limited number of games with the Caps.  At age 31 (he will turn 32 in March), it is reasonable to think that Winnik has a full performance profile that does not indicate much of a likelihood of improvement.  He is not going to turn into a top-six forward.  The best that might be said is that he came to the Caps late last season, joining a club that had a consistency of structure in their roles, and his job was to fit in, in a limited amount of time.  It is not something foreign to him in his career, but it might not ever be an easy task.  Now, as a mature player with a club deep in talent, there is little pressure on Winnik to be much more, if any of an offensive performer than he has been.  He can contribute in other ways (he did receive votes for the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward in 2014-2015).  Being more of a stopper might be the role that presents itself to him.

In the end…

It is hard to make a complex case for a fourth liner being a difference maker, but look at what the Pittsburgh Penguins got out of bottom six forwards last postseason on their way to the Stanley Cup.  Tom Kuhnackl, Eric Fehr, Brian Rust, and Matt Cullen combined for 15 goals in 24 games, and six of those goals were game-winners.  It doesn’t hurt to get production down the roster.  Daniel Winnik has actually been a reasonably productive player for one who gets bottom six minutes.  His per-82 game production over his career (8-18-26, plus-4) would certainly be welcome for the Caps, but the Pittsburgh example cited here suggests he has a lot of work to do to make a mark of any sort in the postseason (Winnik is 0-3-3, minus-10, in 45 career playoff games).  Winnik has endured a long journey since coming to the NHL as a ninth-round draft pick in 2004.  If he can do so just a bit more and lift his production a bit more in the biggest games, maybe the Caps can conquer their own demons.

Projection: 75 games, 6-14-20, plus-8

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“True progress quietly and persistently moves along without notice.”

-- Saint Francis de Sales

More than a few Washington Capitals fans might look at Tom Wilson and see a 16^th-overall draft choice that is not performing like a 16^th-overall draft choice.  He might merit another look.  Looking at his 2012 draft class, Wilson ranks fifth in career games played (231), 16^th in goals scored (14), 12^th in assists (36), 12^th in points (50), tied for 13^th in plus-minus (plus-3).  He also happens to have more than three times as many penalty minutes (486) than the second-place player, Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba (151).

Of more immediate importance, Wilson has improved in each of his three seasons in multiple statistical categories.  Goals have climbed from three in his rookie season to four in his sophomore year to seven last season.  Assists jumped from seven to 13 to 16.  Points rose from 10 to 17 to 23.  Shots on goal went from 63 to 79 to 99, with his shooting percentage going along for the ride, from 4.8 to 5.1 to 7.1.  His time on ice has risen from 7:56 per game in his rookie season to 10:56 in his second season to 12:55 last year.  And a big part of that was the shorthanded ice time Wilson logged.  Whereas in 2014-2015 he recorded a total of 46 shorthanded seconds, he averaged 1:35 a game last season.

That penalty minute number has been one that stood out for Wilson in each of his three seasons.  No player in the league has more combined minutes over the last three seasons than Wilson (Antoine Roussel and Derek Dorsett are tied in second with 480 minutes).  Those 486 minutes for Wilson are the most for a player in his first three seasons in the league since Jared Boll recorded 555 penalty minutes for the Columbus Blue Jackets ending in 2009-2010.

However, Wilson displayed more discipline in his third season than in the previous season.  His total minutes were down (from 172 to 163), as were his minutes per game (2.57 to 1.99) and his fighting majors (from 12 to 7).  Not that the exuberance was necessarily a bad thing.  The Caps were 4-1-2 in games in which Wilson had a fighting major and 8-2-3 in games in which he recorded at least five minutes in penalties.

Fearless’ Take…

The fighting and the penalty minutes might not have mattered, but the Caps got a glimpse that his ability to contribute supplemental scoring might matter more.  Washington was 7-0-0 in games in which Wilson recorded a goal (extending that streak with wins in a goal-scoring game to eight dating back to the 2014-2015 season) and 19-0-1 in games in which he recorded a point (28-0-3 dating back to the 2014-2015 season).

Cheerless’ Take…

I wonder if Tom Wilson wasn’t a bit of a bad luck charm last season.  According to the folks at stats.hockeyanalysis.com, Wilson skated at least 100 5-on-5 minutes with six other forwards.  Four of them – Jason Chimera, Brooks Laich, Mike Richards, and Michael Latta – are no longer with the team (Jay Beagle and Marcus Johansson were the others).  And here is the other thing with those six forwards.  Their possession numbers (Corsi-for) were better apart from Wilson than they were with him. 

And the postseason.  One point.  One.  And it was not as if his ice time was cut back.  He still averaged 12 minutes a game.  And those possession numbers were still pretty weak (46.95 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5).  He had only two shots on goal in his last seven games in the postseason.  He has had only 15 shots on goal in his last 25 postseason games.

The Big Question… Can Tom Wilson make it four-for-four in improving his performance numbers?

Tom Wilson has improved steadily in his three-year career so far, but the numbers are still modest.  Twelve minute/23 point players are not rare commodities in the NHL.  On the other hand, Wilson will not turn 23 years old until next March.  He is young enough to be given room to grow, but the Caps having T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams on the right side, then going out and getting another right winger in Brett Connolly, might make one wonder about just how much room – or more precisely, time – Wilson might get to improve upon his numbers.  One thing that would help with the time he gets is improve on his possession numbers from last season.  He would seem to have it in him, or at least not be a drag on possession.  He was 52.65 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in 2014-2015 before dropping to 46.55 percent last season (numbers from Corsica.hockey). 

In the end…

Tom Wilson is entering the first year of a two-year/$2 million contract with the Caps.  Among his age and compensation cohort he does not seem to be quite the value of the others in the group (one that might include Marcus Foligno, Riley Sheehan, Calle Jarnkrok, Jason Zucker, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Sven Baertschi in the 22-25 age group and $1.75-2.25 million AAV; numbers from generalfanager.com).  But the Caps have had the luxury of bringing Wilson along slowly as a right winger.  The flip side of that entering this season is that there might be something of a log jam in front of him with T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, and perhaps Brett Connolly.  It will put a premium on making the most of what might be limited opportunities, or at least opportunities that do not look a lot different from the fourth line work that has dominated his resume to date.

Wilson has managed to improve his numbers without the benefit of getting much of an increase in ice time with more productive personnel.  Last season, for example, he recorded fewer than 50 5-on-5 minutes with each of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, and he had less than two minutes of power play time for the season.  He might have some growth left in him in this role, but his development arc might be getting to that point where the club is going to have to see what he can do with more responsibility.  That could be where the next step in his progress lies.

Projection: 82 games, 9-16-25, plus-4

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Justin Williams

Justin Williams

“For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return.”

-- Leonardo da Vinci

Justin Williams was a first-round draft pick of the Philadelphia Flyers in 2000, having played two seasons for the Plymouth Whalers of the Ontario Hockey League in Canadian juniors, a team that won 96 of 136 regular season games over those two years.  Williams was 41-54-95, plus-58, in 115 games for those clubs and added another 15 goals and 33 points in 30 post season games.

Six years later, after having been traded to the Carolina Hurricanes in 2004, Williams won his first Stanley Cup, tying for third on the team in total scoring (18 points in 25 games), but perhaps as important, scoring the insurance empty net goal in Game 7 of the Hurricanes 3-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers to win the Cup.  It was the first time Williams played in a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup final and the second time he played in a playoff Game 7, the Hurricanes beating the Buffalo Sabres in the previous series as Williams recorded a goal and two assists.

It would be another six seasons before Williams would play for a team that won a playoff series.  After he was traded to the Los Angeles Kings in 2009, he and the Kings failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs in two tries.  However, in 2012 he and the Kings won the Cup, although not once in four series were the Kings extended to seven games in winning. 

The following season, Williams added to his growing “Game 7” resume, scoring both goals in the series clinching 2-1 win over the San Jose Sharks in the conference semi-finals.  Los Angeles lost to the Chicago Blackhawks, the eventual Cup champion, in the conference final, but it was a stepping stone to the 2014 postseason for both player and club.  The Kings played three seven-game series on their way to the finals, Williams going 2-3-5, plus-3 in the three Games 7, propelling the Kings to the final where they beat the New York Rangers in five games.

It was that ability to step up in the postseason that the Caps were counting on when they signed him away from the Kings as a free agent in July 2015.  He was certainly a solid contributor in the regular season, his 22 goals being the most since he posted that total with the Kings in 2011-2012 and as many as he had in any season since he had 33 for the Hurricanes in 2006-2007.  He finished with 52 points, the fifth time he recorded more than 50 points in a season.

One of the things that commended Williams to the Caps, in addition to his playoff theatrics, was his record as a possession player.  He did not disappoint here, either.  At 5-on-5, his Corsi-for was 53.4 percent, best among all Capitals forwards with at least 250 minutes at 5-on-5 (numbers from Corsica.Hockey).  What is odd about his performance, though, is that the 53.4 percent Corsi-for at fives is his worst finish over the last nine seasons.

Fearless’ Take…

Only once over the course of the 2015-2016 regular season did Williams go as many as four games without a point.  The Caps were 17-2-0 in games in which he recorded a goal and 31-5-4 in games in which he recorded a point.  Washington did not lose a home game in regulation when Williams recorded at least one point (18-0-2).  Williams skated at least 100 5-on-5 minutes with six other Caps forwards in 2015-2016.  Only Evgeny Kuznetsov had a better Corsi-for skating apart from Williams than he had skating with him, and that difference was less than one percentage point (53.0 percent to 52.1 percent; numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  He stepped up in the postseason when the Caps needed him to do that.  Williams had points in each of the last four games of the second round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins (3-2-5, plus-5).

Cheerless’ Take…

Where was Williams in the first part of the postseason?  In his first eight playoff games last spring he had just two assists and was a minus-6 (he wasn’t a “plus” player in any game).  From Game 4 in the first round series against the Philadelphia Flyers through Game 2 against the Penguins in the second round, he did not record a point.  The five straight games without a point tied his longest career postseason points drought.

Oh, and what was the deal with getting goals overturned?...

The Big Question… Can Justin Williams be “That Guy” in the postseason one more time?

It would seem entirely likely that Justin Williams will have another typically solid regular season.  He has missed only one regular season game over the last five seasons and has averaged better than half a point per game in each of those seasons.  But what about the postseason, the time of year that has set Williams apart from many of his contemporaries?  Williams will turn 35 years of age nine days before the Caps’ 2016-2017 season starts.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout, only 12 forwards 35 or older have appeared in at least 20 postseason games and averaged at least a half a point per game.  It is not a rare occurrence, given how many players appear in at least 20 games in any postseason, but it is not a common one, either. 

Williams has appeared in at least 20 postseason games three times in his career (each time with a team winning the Stanley Cup).  Over those three postseasons he averaged 0.82 points per game.  What is more, he has stepped up late in the postseason.  In 37 conference final and Stanley Cup finals games in those three seasons, Williams was 11-22-33, plus-23.  And of course, there is that Game 7 record.  Seven games, seven wins, 7-6-13, plus-10.  The only issues, it would seem, is if he has another such season in him at age 35.

In the end…

Justin Williams did not get to play in a Game 7 in his first year with the Capitals.  Neither did he get to play in a conference final or Stanley Cup final, where he has excelled over his career.  So, for Year 1 of his stay in Washington, the score is “Capitals Curse:” 1 – Mr. Game 7: 0.  Williams will be engaged in a different sort of subplot in his second year in Washington, his own durability and level of performance against the march of time.  Players keep themselves in top shape longer these days than in past years, so it would not be surprising to find Williams having a regular season along the lines he had last season (82 games, 22-30-52, plus-15). 

And let’s remember that Williams did not win a Stanley Cup in Philadelphia, did not win one in his first (partial) season in Carolina, and did not win one in his first two-plus seasons in Los Angeles.  The flip side of that is that there is no guarantee of a “third time being the charm” in Washington, since Williams is embarking on the second year of a two-year contract with the Caps.  Williams has made the playoffs a regular thing in his career (he is in the top-15 among active players in postseason games played).  And he has tasted from the Stanley Cup often enough to suggest that it is a stage to which he wishes to return.

Projection: 81 games, 19-28-47, plus-13

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“It is not by the gray of the hair that one knows the age of the heart.”

-- Edward Bulwer-Lytton

For those acquainted with the works of Edward Bulwer-Lytton, one might think a more appropriate quote would be a line penned by Bulwer-Lytton that is perhaps the most famous bad opening line in literature…”It was a dark and stormy night.”  A “dark and stormy night” seems, on some levels, to be an apt description of Alex Ovechkin’s career in the NHL, one with a lot of lightning and thunder, but ultimately dark and disappointing.  That would be one narrative.

Another would be that Ovechkin comes into the 2016-2017 NHL season as the most dominant goal scorer of his era.  Need convincing?

• Since he came into the league in 2005-2006, Ovechkin could have sat out the last three seasons and still led the NHL in total goals (371), ten more than Jarome Iginla posted (361) in that time.
• He has seven 50-goal seasons on his resume.  There are six active players in the league with a combined total of seven 50-goal seasons (Steven Stamkos has two).
• He is one of three players since 2005-2006 to play in at least 250 games and average at least half a goal per game.  But his scoring rate (0.63 goals per game) is almost 15 percent higher than that of Stamkos (0.55 goals per game).
• Ovechkin has 195 power play goals since he came into the league.  In second place is Thomas Vanek with 124.
• If you deleted all the even-strength goals he has scored, the 199 special teams goals (195 power play goals and four shorthanded goals) would place him just outside the top-50 active goal scorers overall.
• He has five seasons with at least 10 game winning goals.  No other active player has more than two (Max Pacioretty).

With Ovechkin’s goal scoring comes a certain expectation – a Caps win.  He certainly accommodated that expectation in 2015-2016, the Caps going 33-5-2 in the 40 games in which he scored a goal.  But it might be helpful to think of that as a baseline.  It is the getting others to score that is as much a signal of whether the Caps win, and the club going 15-2-1 when Ovechkin recorded an assist attests to that. Nine times last season he recorded a goal and an assist, and nine times the Caps won.

This being the era of possession, it merits mention that Ovechkin has been a much improved possession player under Barry Trotz over the last two seasons.  His Corsi-for at 5-on-5 was 53.2 percent last season, marginally under his 53.7 percent in 2014-2015.  Compare that to the previous three seasons in which he was under 50 percent each year (numbers from Corsica.Hockey).

But it is the playoffs where reputations for greatness are made, and Ovechkin at least made progress last spring restoring some of his as a big game player.  His five goals in 12 games was his best goals-per-game mark since he had five in nine games of the 2011 postseason.  His 12 points was the first time he had more than 10 points in a postseason since he posted 21 points in 14 games in the 2009 playoffs.  What is more, he had points in four of the six games of the second round series that the Caps lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins and was 2-4-6 in the last four games of that series.  It is hard to think that there was more he could have or should have done on the score sheet for the Caps to advance.  Perhaps it was just that little bit, though, that the Caps needed and did not get.

Fearless’ Take…

Alex Ovechkin takes a lot of shots.  No, like a LOT of shots.  Since he came into the league, he has been credited with 4,228 shots on goal (5.0 shots per game).  Next on that list is Eric Staal with 2,909 shots.  Rick Nash is second among active players in shots per game (3.6).  With those shot volumes have come the assertions that it reflects a certain selfishness on Ovechkin’s part.  If he can duplicate last year’s results, the Caps might want to keep feeding him the puck.  In games in which Ovechkin recorded more than five shots on goal, the Caps went 21-3-3 (he scored 29 goals in those 27 games).  He was less “selfish,” though, recording more than five shots on goal in fewer games (27) than he did in 2014-2015 (32).  That outsized win-loss record in games with more than five SOG is something of a departure, though (16-10-6 in 2014-2015 and 12-10-7 in 2013-2014).

Cheerless’ Take…

Ovechkin has this reputation for being a big hitter.  And only three forwards have more total credited hits that Ovechkin since he came into the league (it is worth noting here that the three – Dustin Brown, Chris Neil, and Cal Clutterbuck – have combined for 400 goals in that time, 125 fewer than Ovechkin).  But does it matter?  The Caps were 5-5-3 in games in which Ovechkin was credited with five or more hits last season and did not win a road game when he did (0-4-1).

The Big Question… Are 50 goals and a Stanley Cup compatible?

No team has won a Stanley Cup with a 50-goal scorer since Joe Sakic potted 54 goals in 2000-2001 for the Colorado Avalanche.  Yes, part of the problem is that there have been only 22 50-goal seasons in the last 14 campaigns since Sakic did it, and yes, Alex Ovechkin (for the famously underachieving Capitals) has seven of those 22 seasons, including the last three.  Still, it just does not happen these days.  No one is going to argue for Ovechkin to take his foot off the gas as far as trying to score goals, but his reaching that 50-goal mark just looks more and more like the hockey gods mocking him and the team.  Sure, you can have your 50-goal scorer, but Patrick Kane and Sidney Crosby and Anze Kopitar will skate the Cup around the rink.  There is also the unpleasant fact that time takes its toll on every player, and it will do so on Ovechkin at some point.  Whether that toll starts to manifest itself this season, one cannot know.  Maybe there is another 50-goal season in him, maybe there is not.  But the bigger question might be, “does it matter?”

In the end…

Alex Ovechkin, now 31 years of age, has cemented his place in the Hockey Hall of Fame.  But he is arguably now playing on the back nine of his career (well, maybe the tenth hole), and the ultimate prize – a Stanley Cup – still eludes him.  As a practical matter, the days of his leading the Caps to a Cup are dwindling, although that time does still seem to be some time off.  At some point, if he is to be on a Cup winner for this franchise, it might be that he will be carried more than lead, by the likes of an Evgeny Kuznetsov, an Andre Burakovsky, a Jakub Vrana, or some combination of the youngsters coming through the system.  But for now, and until results judge otherwise, this is and remains his team.  He remains a player whose flecks of gray in his hair do nothing to diminish the heart he brings to the rink.

Projection: 80 games, 48-31-79, plus-20

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“No sooner do we think we have assembled a comfortable life than we find a piece of ourselves that has no place to fit in.”

-- Gail Sheehy

T.J. Oshie was drafted by the St. Louis Blues in 2005 and played seven seasons for the parent club.  By the time he completed his seventh season with the club, he was among the franchise leaders in games played (443/T-22nd), goals (110/23rd), assists (200/18th), points (310), and plus-minus (plus-71/5th).  He was one of 14 players in team history to record more than one career hat trick (he had two), and he was 12th in team history in games with three or more points (15).

Something, however, was missing.  Despite a solid record in regular season play that would have – should have – made him a bedrock foundational player for the Blues, his postseason performances were substantially less impressive.  In five postseasons with St. Louis, Oshie appeared in 30 games and managed only five goals and nine points.  The plus-71 player of seven regular seasons was minus-12 in those 30 postseason games.

With five playoff appearances in his seven seasons and only once moving past the first round, and underperforming on an individual level compared to his regular season output, there was a part of Oshie that increasingly seemed not to fit.  And so, he was traded to the Washington Capitals for forward Troy Brouwer, prospect goalie Pheonix Copley, and a third round draft pick.

Oshie slid in on the right side of the top forward line for the Caps, and he fit quite well.  His 26 goals in 80 games was a career best.  His 11 power play goals was a career high and exceeded his total of the previous three seasons in St. Louis combined (10).  He posted his best shooting percentage (14.1), set a career high in faceoffs taken (262) while finishing above 50 percent in wins for the first time, posted his second-highest blocked shot (62) and credited hit (134) total, and he tied a career best in credited takeaways.

Fearless’ Take…

Then there were the playoffs.  Oshie had six goals in 12 games, more than doubling his career total (from 5 to 11).  He more than doubled his career postseason point total (from 9 to 19). He had two game-winning goals – one in overtime – his first two game-winners in his postseason career (both of them against Pittsburgh, which isn’t nothing).  He took 59 faceoffs, which might not sound too significant until you see that he took a total of 28 draws in 30 previous postseason games.  And he won 59.3 percent of those 59 draws.  The Caps won four of the six games in which he scored, lost four of six in which he did not.  Put another way, his six playoff goals in 12 games doubled the number Troy Brouwer, the player he replaced, posted in 35 postseason games for the Caps.  His ten points was one more than Brouwer posted in almost three times as many contests.

Cheerless’ Take…

You gonna be Oshie’s campaign manager, cuz?  OK, so it’s hard to really find much fault with the year he had.  He scored, he possessed, he playoffed.  But 19 even strength assists and 25 in all?  He had fewer assists than two defensemen and Justin Williams, playing on the top line.  The 25 assists ties for the fewest Oshie has had in a season in which he appeared in more than 50 games (he had 25 in 57 games in his rookie season).  He didn’t have assists in consecutive games over the last 31 games of the season and had only nine in those 31 games, three of them against the woeful Toronto Maple Leafs on March 2nd (a 3-2 Caps win).

The Big Question… Was last season an outlier, the hilltop of T.J. Oshie’s potential for production?

Looked at in the context of his career before arriving in Washington, the 2015-2016 season was something of an odd one for T.J. Oshie.  In seven seasons with St. Louis he never averaged less than 0.23 goals per game and never more than 0.27 goals per game, a rather tight band across the years.  With the Caps, that number jumped to 0.33 goals per game, a 22 percent improvement on his career best.  His performance range for assists is a bit broader, from 0.39 per game at its lowest and at 0.50 per game at its highest, but the departure from the range is just about as stark in 2015-2016.  Oshie averaged 0.31 assists per game.  What it means, strangely enough, is that Oshie’s points per game in 2015-2016 (0.64) lies comfortably within the range he posted over seven years with the Blues (0.63-0.76), if somewhat at the low end of it.  In that sense, perhaps Oshie might see a bit of a regression from his goal scoring (that career best shooting percentage sticks out some, although it is not wildly above his previous career highs).  It is in those assists where there might be movement, if Oshie is to improve on his point totals from last season.

In the end…

T.J. Oshie was about as good a fit as one might have expected to provide some punch and stability on right side of the Caps’ top forward line.  He was consistent, not going more than five games without a point all season, and he was productive, one of seven Capitals since the 2004-2005 lockout to record 26 or more goals in a season (Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin are the only Caps to do it more than once).  The bonus was his playoff performance, one that saw him become just the fifth player to record a postseason of ten or more points in the post-2004-2005 lockout era with the Caps (Alex Ovechkin (four times), Nicklas Backstrom (twice), Alexander Semin, and John Carlson are the others).

Oshie will not turn 30 years of age until December.  He is in what is usually seen as the prime chronological years of his career.  There is little to suggest that 2015-2016 was an aberration, or even necessarily a ceiling for him.  But although Oshie has demonstrated himself to be a fine fit in Washington, it is not something with which he or anyone else in Capitals Nation should be comfortable.  There is too much more work to be done.

Projection: 80 games, 25-26-51, plus-14

Photo:  Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

“Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success.”

-- Henry Ford

It is hard to find any player in Washington Capitals history with the same meteoric progression of offensive numbers over their first three seasons in the NHL.  Part of it is a matter of circumstance, Kuznetsov appearing in only 17 games of the 2013-2014 season after his season at Chelyabinsk Traktor in the KHL ended.  He went 3-6-9, minus-2 in those 17 games.  He followed that up with a full-time rookie season in which he went 11-26-37, plus-10 in 80 games.  Then, last season, he arrived.  He went 20-57-77, plus-27, his 57 assists ranking fourth in the league and his 77 points tied for ninth.  His plus-27 finished sixth in the NHL and was the highest such number for any Capital since five players finished with higher plus-minus numbers in the “Showtime” 2009-2010 season.

Kuznetsov showed that he could score points in bunches last season.  Only three players – John Gaudreau, Artemi Panarin, and Patrick Kane – had more games with three or more points last season.   And that is not to say he wasn’t consistent.  Kuznetsov had points in 47 games for the Caps last season.  There are only four instances of a Capital with more season games with points over the last six seasons. And those games matter in the larger picture.  Washington earned points in 42 of 47 games in which Kuznetsov recorded a point (37-5-5).

Kuznetsov possession numbers have improved smartly as well.  His 5-on-5 Corsi-for was just 42.7 percent in 17 games in 2013-2014, improving to 49.2 percent in his rookie 2014-2015 season, and jumping to 52.5 percent last season.  He was third among Caps forwards in Corsi-for at fives last season, trailing only Justin Williams (53.4 percent) and Alex Ovechkin (53.2 percent; numbers from Corsica.Hockey).

Kuznetsov has also become more assertive as an offensive player, as one might expect having assumed the role of a top-six forward with power play responsibilities.  At a high level, his Corsi-for per 60 increased by more than 20 percent from his first to second year (from 42.6 to 53.8), and again by more than 15 percent from 2014-2015 to 2015-2016 (which might be as much a product of better teammates).  At a more specific, individual level, his shots per game overall increased from 1.29 in his 17-game 2013-2014 season to 1.59 per game in 2014-2015, and increased again in 2015-2016 to 2.35 shots per game.

Fearless’ Take…

Evgeny Kuznetsov (0.94) was second only to Calgary’s John Gaudreau (0.99) in points per game last season among players 23 years of age or younger appearing in at least 50 games.  Of course, Connor McDavid (1.07) would have bumped Kuznetsov to third had he appeared in that minimum number of games (he played in 45 games, limited to that by injury).  No player 23 or younger appearing in more than 50 games averaged more assists per game than Kuznetsov (0.70).  McDavid would have had more, but not by much (0.71 per game).  He is one of just 29 players age 23 or younger to have recorded at least 0.94 points per game in the 11 seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout (although some did it multiple times).

Cheerless’ Take…

About those possession numbers.  At 5-on-5 with the score tied last season, he was under 50 percent (48.9 percent) and was actually under his 2014-2015 number (49.2 percent).  Only Jason Chimera was worse (48.9 percent) among 11 Caps forwards with at least 150 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from Corsica.Hockey).  Then there were the playoffs.  Only three players, two of them defensemen (Roman Josi and Marc-Edouard Vlasic; Alex Hemsky was the forward), recorded at least 39 shots on goal (the total Kuznetsov had) and scored one or no goals.  He had no goals on 24 shots over his last nine postseason games.  The Caps went 3-6 in those games. 

The Big Question… Does Evgeny Kuznetsov have the description “elite” attached to him this season?

Evgeny Kuznetsov’s progress in two seasons has been remarkable, if not wholly unexpected (he is a first round draft pick generally thought of as one of the best pure talents in the 2010 draft).  He was top-ten in scoring last season and fourth in assists.  He is one of just five Capitals to record at least 75 points in a season in the post 2004-2005 lockout era.  Only Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin were younger when they did it for the first time in their respective careers.

Kuznetsov might not improve significantly over the numbers he posted last season, given that he would seem likely to get second line ice time and second power play ice time.  But, averaging at least a point per game is not an unreasonable expectation.  Only seven players in the league exceeded that threshold while playing in at least 50 games last season, and all of them are considered among the elite in the league.  One season achieving one measure would not constitute becoming an elite player, but insofar as Kuznetsov would do it in just his third full season, it would be another milepost passed on his way to being included in that category.

In the end….

Intro to NHL hockey…check.  Fine rookie season…check.  Among league leaders in scoring…check.  Clutch playoff performer… well, there was that five-goal output in 14 games in 2015, but the 2016 performance?   That left something more than “something” to be desired.  Two points in 14 games will not get it done, not for a top-six forward for whom “elite” status is hoped.

This is not an empty concern, since although Kuznetsov’s resume in tournament and postseason play is not very extensive, neither is it impressive, or at least not uniformly so.  There was his being the team’s leading regular season scorer by a wide margin (44 points in 51 games to 31 for Jan Bulis) for Chelyabinsk Traktor in the KHL in 2012-2013 but finishing tied for fifth on the team in postseason scoring (11 points in 25 games).  There was his two goals and five points in 18 tournament games (Euro Hockey Tour and World Championships) in 2013-2014. He was younger than many of his contemporaries in those situations, so perhaps we can think of his postseason performance level as having some room in which to grow.  But despite the fact that Kuznetsov just turned 24 last May, it is the postseason on which he – and the Caps – will be judged, as being either an elite player or an elite team.  He and the Caps came together three years ago, they stayed together through the last two seasons as Kuznetsov assumed a more responsible role.  Now it’s time to work together so that player and team can take the next step.

Projection: 80 games, 22-60-82, plus-22

Photo: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images North America