A NO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 39: Islanders 1 - Capitals 0

The Washington Capitals made their second trip to Long Island in less than a week to face the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum.  They were hoping for a different result than what they suffered on April Fools’ Day, an 8-4 thrashing at the hands of the Isles.  New York was hoping to climb into a standings points tie with the Caps at the top of the East Division.  Both clubs entered the contest with two-game winning streaks.  It would be the Islanders extending their winning streak to three games, shutting out the Caps, 1-0.

First Period

New York had the first man advantage of the contest when Tom Wilson was whistled for tripping at the 6:02 mark.  The Islanders managed one shot on goal on their power play but failed to score.  The Caps got their first power play late in the period, Mathew Barzal going off for interference with 16.4 seconds left in the frame.  That Caps did not score but would carry 1:43 of the man advantage to the second period.  That would be it for the excitement, the teams retiring to their respective locker rooms in a scoreless tie.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 12-7, in the period an out-attempted them, 22-11.

-- Justin Schultz was the only Capital with two shots on goal in the first period.

-- Washington won just eight of 22 faceoffs in the period (36.4 percent); Lars Eller the only Capital taking more than one draw finishing the period over 50 percent (3-for-5/60.0 percent).

Second Period

The Caps could not convert the remainder of the power play that carried over from the first period, failing to get a shot on goal in the time available.  They were awarded another power play mid-way through the period when Anthony Beauvillier was hit with a penalty for closing his hand on the puck at the 9:29 mark.  Washington did not score on this power play, either, recording one shot on goal.  Neither team would rustle the net twine in the period, and after 40 minutes, still scoreless.

-- Washington outshot the Islanders, 12-7, in the period and out-attempted them, 26-12.

-- Justin Schultz, Zdeno Chara, and Tom Wilson each had three shots on goal through 40 minutes. 

-- John Carlson did not have a shot attempt but did have three hits.  Brenden Dillon led the team in hits with four.

Third Period

New York went to the power play 4:34 into the period when Carl Hagelin was sent off for slashing.  New York failed to convert, despite three shots on goal, and the teams played on, scoreless.

New York finally broke the ice when the Caps could not clear the puck out of their own end and a shot from the right point by Ryan Pulock was put back by Brock Nelson through goalie Vitek Vanecek’s legs at the 13:05 mark.  The Caps pulled Vanecek late but could not convert with the extra skater, and the Islanders skated off, 1-0 winners.

Other stuff…

-- This was the 11^th game this season in which the Caps allowed one or fewer goals.  They are now 10-1-0 in those games.

-- Vitek Vanecek allowed one goal on 39 shots, the most shots he faced in a road game and lost this season.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 39-29, and out-attempted them, 62-54.

-- Zdeno Chara, Tom Wilson, and Conor Sheary led the Caps with four shots apiece.

-- Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with seven shot attempts.

-- Ovechkin, Garnet Hathaway, and Brenden Dillion led the Caps with four credited hits apiece.

-- Despite being in an early hole on faceoff wins, the Caps went 28-for-57 for the game (49.1 percent).  Lars Eller was 8-for-12 (66.7 percent).

-- The Caps were credited with only three takeaways (Ellerr, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov).

-- Kuznetsov had four of his six shot attempts blocked.

-- Three of the Islanders’ missed shots were shots off posts.

In the end…

Tough loss.  Put it aside, get ready for Boston on Thursday.  No time to sulk.

 

 

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 39: Capitals at Islanders, April 6

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the scene of their worst loss of the season on Tuesday night, the smell of the 8-4 loss to the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum still fresh.  The Caps shook off that loss in their next two games, sweeping the New Jersey Devils in a two-game set to sweep the season series, but it is the Islanders that the Caps might face down the road, and making a statement that a shellacking such as they suffered last week is not to be repeated has to be on their minds.  On the other side, the Isles have had one contest since their blowout win, a 3-2 Gimmick win over the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.  It lifted their record to 5-2-0 over their last seven games.

Rookies can have a hard time cracking a Barry Trotz-coached lineup, but that has not been the case with Oliver Wahlstrom, who has dressed for 31 games as a rookie this season (after appearing in nine games last season), all of them in the last 32 Islander contests.  He ranks highly among his rookie cohort, standing fourth in goals scored (nine), tied for eighth in points (16), tied for 12^th in plus-minus rating (plus-4), tied for second in power play points (seven), eighth in shots on goal (64), and eighth in shooting percentage (14.1; minimum: 20 shots on goal).

Wahlstrom has paid early returns to justify his selection as the 11^th overall pick in the 2018 Entry Draft.  He ranks eighth in his draft class in goals (nine) and 11^th in points (16). He has been getting more ice time as a result of his performance.  After averaging 10:51 per game over his first 15 games this season, he averaged 13:01 over his last 16 games.  Wahlstrom had a hot streak over seven games in mid-March, going 5-2-7, plus-2, but he is without a point in his last four games.  He is 2-0-2, minus-1, in three games against the Caps this season, his only career appearances against the Caps to date.

Defenseman Noah Dobson was taken one spot after Wahlstrom in that same 2018 Entry Draft, the fifth defenseman taken in the first 12 picks of that draft, one that was rich in defensemen at the top (Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Adam Boqvist, Ty Smith, and K’Andre Miller were taken in the top 22 picks, in addition to Dobson).  Now in his sophomore season, Dobson has already established career highs in goals (three), assists (nine), points (12), plus-minus-rating (plus-7), shots on goal (44), and average ice time (16:42 per game).

Dobson was a casualty of COVID protocols, missing eight games before returning to the ice last Thursday against the Capitals.  It was an unfortunate interruption for Dobson, who was 2-3-5, plus-7, in ten games before he was laid up.  The Islanders were 4-4-0 in the eight games he missed.  If there is an odd fact associated with his play this season, the Islanders are 10-1-2 in 13 games in which he skated less than 16 minutes.  Dobson is 1-1-2, plus-1, in three games against Washington this season and 1-1-2, plus-2, in five career games against the Caps.

1.  Three of the last four Islander wins have come in extra time, their 8-4 win over the Caps being the exception.

2.  The Islanders have the best record on home ice this season by points percentage (15-1-2/.889).

3.  New York has the best scoring offense on home ice this season (3.94 goals per game) and the best home ice goal differential (plus-1.83).

4.  The Islanders and Carolina are the only teams in the league in the top-five in both net power play (NYI: 27.3 percent/4^th; CAR: 35.1 percent/1^st) and net penalty kill (NYI: 94.1 percent/2^nd; CAR: 92.6 percent/3^rd).

5.  New York leads the league in home ice winning percentage when trailing first in games (6-1-0/.857).

1.  Washington remains the only team in the East Division with at least ten wins both at home (13-4-2) and on the road (12-5-2).

2.  The Caps have the best last ten-game record in the East (7-3-0) and are tied for the longest winning streak (two games…it’s a competitive division).

3.  Washington has the fourth-worst net power play on the road this season (10.6 percent, after shorthanded goals are accounted for).

4.  On the other hand, the Caps have the fourth-best net penalty kill on the road (88.7 percent).

5.  Washington has 22 first period goals on the road this season, second-highest in the league (St. Louis: 23).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Cal Clutterbuck

If you want a trivia question to impress your friends and confound your enemies, here is one… “Who was taken with the pick after Brad Marchand was taken by the Boston Bruins in the 2006 Entry Draft?"  You know by now that it was Cal Clutterbuck, taken in the third round (72^nd overall) by the Minnesota Wild.  He spent eight years in Minnesota, where he immediately established a reputation as an enthusiastic hitter.  In each of his first three full seasons, 2008-2009 through 2010-2011, he recorded more than 300 hits, one of only four players over that period to post at least one such season and the only one to do it more than once (Brooks Orpik, Tuomo Ruutu, and Dustin Brown were the others).  He has hardly slowed down.  In his 13 full seasons in the NHL, including this one, he has been credited with more hits than any skater (3.265) and ranks fourth among all skaters with at least 1,000 hits over that period in hits-per-60 minutes (213.7).

Clutterbuck hasn’t slowed much in his enthusiasm for hitting, but his offense has tailed off.  After posting 96 goals and 168 points over 572 games and nine seasons with Minnesota and the Islanders, including six seasons with double-digit goals, he has only 27 goals (no double-digit goal seasons) and 77 points in 288 games over his last five seasons, including this one.  He is in a slump at the moment with one point (an assist) over his last 13 games, but over that span he is still second in the league in credited hits (60).  Clutterbuck is 0-2-2, minus-2, in four games against the Caps this season and 7-6-13, minus-3, in 32 career games against Washington.

Washington: Tom Wilson

Cal Clutterbuck is not the only player who will take the ice Tuesday who is enthusiastic about his physical game. With his next credited hit, Tom Wilson will have 100 career hits in only 32 games against the Islanders, second among active Capitals (Alex Ovechkni: 116).  His 108.7 hits per 60 minutes lead active Caps by a wide margin and rank fifth among all NHL skaters appearing in at least 30 games against the Isles. 

That, however, is but a part of Wilson’s game these days.  With 0.31 goals per game, he on a pace to finish with his third consecutive season over 0.30 goals per game, and his 0.79 points per game is on pace to establish a career high by a considerable margin (0.65 points per game last season).  Wilson’s 2.75 points per 60 minutes lead all Capitals appearing in at least 20 games.  And, his roles are varied.  For example, he is the only forward on the team this season averaging at least 1:00 of ice time both on power plays and penalty kills.

Wilson came out of his seven-game suspension in March smartly.  Since returning to the ice on March 20^th, he is 2-4-6, even, with two multi-point games over eight games.  Wilson has also built a consistency into his game of late, only twice going consecutive games without a point over his last 13 contests. Not Connor McDavid consistency, but for someone with a reputation among fans as being little more than fists with a helmet, it is evidence of his continuing to build a more well-rounded game.  Wilson is 1-1-2, minus-3, in two games against the Islanders this season, 6-7-13, minus-3, in 31 career games against New York.

In the end…

It does not get simpler than this.  Players might downplay this as another game against a team with which they are fighting for the top spot in the East Division, but that 8-4 loss has to sting still.  Everything that could go wrong seemed to in that game, starting with goalie Ilya Samsonov getting decked by a teammate 30 seconds into the contest and having to take a seat for a while.  On the other hand, it was the first loss suffered by the Caps on the road against the Islanders in the Barry Trotz era on Long Island (4-1-0).  Four wins is good, five is better.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 12

Week 12 was an up-and-down week for the Caps, mostly down with two big losses sandwiched between two tight wins.  Nevertheless, the Caps did finish the week with the best record in the East Division, but they are hanging on by a thread to that top spot, by a tie-breaker over the New York Islanders.

Record: 2-2-0

It was the worst week, record-wise, for the Caps since Week 6, when they also went 2-2-0.  In the intervening five weeks they were 14-2-1, so perhaps a correction was due.  The problem was that even with a lackluster 2-2-0 record for the week, the week was worse than that.  A three-goal loss and two one goal wins, one of them coming after the Caps took a 3-0 lead into the final period, to teams well below them in the standings (New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils), plus their worst loss of the season – an 8-4 shellacking by the New York Islanders – made for a more disappoint week than the record would suggest.  When one considers that the last 11 games on the Caps’ regular season schedule include seven against playoff-eligible teams and a pair against a Rangers team against which the Caps have struggled, leaving points on the table in Week 12 is something the Caps cannot afford to repeat next week.

Offense: 3.25/game (season: 3.38 / 3rd)

The Caps did not lack for offense, although it was a bit top-heavy in Week 12.  John Carlson and T.J. Oshie (three goals apiece) accounted for almost half of the 13 goals the Caps scored in four games.  Six other Caps had goals, Tom Wilson among them with the only other multi-goal week (two).  There was more balance in the point production, 16 of the 19 skaters to dress for the week posting at least one.  Oshie led the point-getters with five, followed by John Carlson (four).  Nicklas Backstrom, Dmitry Orlov, and Tom Wilson had three points apiece.  Three Caps finished the week with double-digit totals in shots – Alex Ovechkin (13), Oshie (12), and Wilson (11).  All 19 skaters dressing for the week had at least one.

As a group, the Caps were reasonably efficient shooting the puck, finishing the week with an 11.2 shooting percentage, ninth-best in the league.  Individually, seven Caps were over ten percent, John Carlson leading all skaters with three goals on eight shots, a 37.5 shooting percentage.  T.J. Oshie (3-for-12/25.0 percent) and Nic Dowd (1-for-5/20.0 percent) finished at 20 percent or better.

If there was an odd fact about the Caps’ offense in Week 12, it centered on Brenden Dillon.  He had only one point for the week (an assist) but he was on ice for more even strength goals than any other Capital (seven), and there is more to this story below.

Defense: 4.50/game (season: 3.00 / T-19th)

Where did it all go wrong?  The Caps had a decent week in limiting shots on goal (29.0 per game, tied with the Islanders for 11^th-fewest).  And although they allowed more shot attempts at 5-on-5 (168) than any other team except Minnesota (170), they were tied for the 13^th-fewest shot attempts allowed at fives per game (42.0, with Detroit).

Where it breaks down is in the quality of chances.  Only two teams allowed more high danger scoring chances in Week 12 than the Caps (41),   and they were far and away the worst team in allowing goals in high danger scenarios (14), almost double the total Boston had (eight).

Back to Brenden Dillon.  Not only was he on ice for more even strength goals scored than any Capital for the week, he was on ice for more even strength goals against than any other skater (eight).  None of the 19 skaters dressing for the week was spared an up-close and personal look at even strength goals against. In fact, there were none who were on ice for fewer than two goals against; all six of the defenseman were on ice for three or more even strength goals against.  The breakdown was a team effort.

Goaltending: 4.20 / .833  (season: 2.76 / .902 / 2 shutouts)

Bad defense was not bailed out by good goaltending.  Vitek Vanecek had the better week, but it was nothing to put in the scrapbook.  In just under 140 minutes of work over three games, he went 1-1-0 (one no-decision), 3.01, .879.  it was a case of starting and finishing poorly.  He stopped 21 of 24 first period shots (.875 save percentage) and 14 of 17 third period shots (.824), which more than negated a fine performance in second periods (13-for-14/.929).  He did make up some of the misery with a fine overtime performance against New Jersey in which he stopped excellent chances from Travis Zajac and Jack Hughes to give the Caps an opportunity to win and grab a needed extra standings point.

Ilya Samsonov had a week he might like to forget, and given the circumstances might have little memory of some of it.  He recorded (earned seems a bit much) the win to open the week, a 5-4 win over the Rangers, but he allowed four goals on nine shots to make what should have been a laugher a nail-biter.  That was the better of his two games for the week.  Against the Islanders on Thursday, he collided with T.J. Oshie behind his own net and was dazed, going off to clear his head.  He would return to action with the Caps down, 2-1, and endured a barrage over the remainder of the contest that ended with him allowing six goals on 24 shots.  For the week he stopped only 34 of 44 shots (.773 save percentage) and played to a 5.81 goals against average. 

Power Play: 2-for-9 / 22.2 percent (season: 24.2 percent / 7th)

Reasonably efficient on a per-opportunity basis, but the recurring theme is “too few chances.”  The Caps’ 2.25 chances per game in Week 12 ranked tied for 21^st in the league and below their 29^th-ranked average of 2.46 chances per game for the season.  This week, they just could not finish.  Recording 17 shots in 13:27 of power play time is a pretty good shots-to-minutes rate, but two goals on those 17 shots?  One expects more efficiency from a power play with this much talent than 11.8 percent.  That is below their league-leading overall shooting percentage (12.1 percent).

What success the Caps did have came the middle of the power play setup, something they have seemed to lack of late.  T.J. Oshie had both power play goals for the Caps for the week.  On the other hand, it has been a while since Alex Ovechkin has had one.  His streak without a power play goal reached eight games at week’s end.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-10 / 90.0 percent (season: 82.0 percent / 10th)

The Caps were better on this side of special teams.  It might have been the best area of play overall for the week.  Nine of ten shorthanded situations killed.  Only 2.50 chances allowed per game (tied for 13th-fewest in the league).  Only five shots allowed in 17:34 of shorthanded ice time.  The only blemish was a late power play goal in the first game of the week that made things too interesting at the end of a 5-4 Caps win over the Rangers.

Faceoffs: 123-for-226 / 54.4 percent (season: 49.2 percent  / 20th)

Week 12 was an example of the idea that faceoffs, in general, don’t really matter much in the larger scheme of wins and losses.  The Caps had the third-best faceoff winning percentage for the week (54.4 percent) but finished with a .500 week in wins and losses. 

What was noteworthy in the overall numbers was the discrepancy between offensive and defensive ends of the ice.  The Caps won only 44.0 percent of 75 offensive draws for the week, but they won 61.0 percent of the 59 defensive draws taken.  That difference between offensive and defensive end draws taken and their results suggest the Caps wasted some opportunities in the offensive end to get possession and apply pressure.

Individually, it was a good week for Caps taking more than ten draws.  Only T.J. Oshie, who won nine of 20 faceoffs, finished under 20 percent among the five players in that group.  But there was that offensive/defensive zone issue.  Only Nic Dowd among the five won more than 50 percent of his offensive zone draws, but he took only five (4-for-5/80.0 percent).  On the other hand, the four players in that group of five who took defensive zone draws (Oshie took none) all finished over 60 percent in the defensive end.

Goals by Period:

Third periods…ugh.  The Caps allowed ten third period goals in the four games, the late game leakiness continuing to be an issue.  It was a matter made worse by anemic offense in the third periods overall, the Caps finishing with two third period goals for the week.  The result of the generosity in the third periods of games is that the Caps finished the week having tied for the fifth-highest number of third period goals allowed for the season (46) and taking residence in a neighborhood they would just as soon avoid.  The teams with more third period goals allowed – Arizona (47), Chicago (47), Anaheim (48), and Detroit (49) – all rank in the lower half of the league standings, and only Arizona among them is playoff-eligible, barely.

Year-over-Year:

The 2-2-0 week left the Caps still behind last year’s club at similar points of the season.  If there is a big difference in any year-over-year category that merits attention, it is in the 5-on-5 shot attempts generated.  This year’s Caps are running 7.6 percent behind last year’s club in this category, and they are not making it up with a proportionate reduction in shot attempts allowed at fives.  In other categories, the Caps show evidence of better discipline.  First, they seem to be managing the puck better, the volume of giveaways with which they are charged being 28.7 percent lower than at a similar point last season.  Then there are the penalties, down 18.9 percent from last season, and the penalty minutes, down 20.2 percent from last year.

In the end…

Losing to the Islanders on Long Island is not a completely unexpected result.  The margin of victory and breadth of the defensive collapse were.  But that aside, losing to the Rangers has become an unwelcome habit, one that could cost the Caps the top spot in the East Division when the points are tallied at the end of the season.  The Caps are entering what looks to be a portion of the schedule in which they have to earn points consistently against weaker teams.  Over their next eight games, five will be against clubs not currently playoff eligible (Philadelphia and Buffalo twice, and New Jersey).  Come out of that with a record similar to what the Caps had this week, and an East Division title might prove out of reach.

Three Stars:

• First Star: T.J. Oshie (3-2-5, plus-1, two power play goals, one game-winning goal, 25.0 shooting percentage, no shots missed in 17 shot attempts)
• Second Star: John Carlson (3-1-4, minus-3, recorded seventh two-goal game of his career, passed Mike Green and Calle Johansson for third place in goal scoring among defensemen in Caps history (115))
• Third Star: Dmitry Orlov (1-2-3, minus-4, one overtime/game-winning goal, 20:31 in average ice time, tied Robert Picard for 11^th place in goals in franchise history (42) and is one short of reaching the top-ten (Ken Klee: 43))

 

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 37: Capitals 2 - Devils 1 (OT)

The Washington Capitals hoped to kill two birds with one stone with their visit to New Jersey to face the Devils on Friday night.  First, to wash the bitter taste of an 8-4 loss to the New York Islanders the previous night out of their mouths, and second, to continue their perfect record against the Devils this season.  Both teams got something out of the decision, the Devils forcing overtime to earn their first standings point against the Caps this season, but the Caps getting the extra point on a Dmitry Orlov goal late in overtime for a 2-1 win.

First Period

Washington went a man short in the fourth minute when John Carlson was flagged for holding at the 3:18 mark.  The officials then evened things up with a dubious goaltender interference call on Jesper Bratt at 4:41 of the period.  Neither team converted their abbreviated power plays, and that would be just about all the excitement there was in a scoreless first period.

• Washington outshot New Jersey, 9-5, in the period were out-attempted, 16-15.
• Alex Ovechkin and Dmitry Orlov led the Caps with a pair of shots apiece; Ovechkin had four attempts.
• “Fourth Line” Evgeny Kuznetsov did not take to his new role all that well, at least to start – six shifts, 4:30 in ice time, no shot attempts, one giveaway, and 1-for-3 on faceoffs.

Second Period

The Caps enjoyed another early power play when Sami Vatanen went to the box at 2:12 for high-sticking.  Despite five shots on goal with this man advantage, the Caps could not score.

Washington did break the scoreless tie when Lars Eller intercepted a clearing attempt up the  boards and fed John Carlson at the top of the offensive zone.  Carlson let fly with a slap shot that handcuffed goalie Mackenzie Blackwood and snuck under his left arm to make it 1-0, 8:22 into the period.

New Jersey tied the game in the 13^th minute on a Mike McLeod goal, beating goalie Vitek Vanecek on a rebound of a Jesper Boqvist shot at the 12:53 mark.

The Devils got another power play chance late in the period when Dmitry Orlov was sent off for interference at the 19:07 mark.  New Jersey did not score, but they would carry 1:07 of power play time into the final period.

• The Caps outshot the Devils, 15-8, in the second period and out-attempted them, 23-11.
• Alex Ovechkin had five shots on goal through two periods and nine attempts to lead the team in both categories.
• Nic Dowd was 6-for-7 on faceoffs through 40 minutes.  Lars Eller was the only other Capital over 50 percent (7-for-13).

Third Period

Nothing happened, so we go to…

Overtime

Conor Sheary had a glorious chance early in the extra frame, all alone with a breakaway on Blackwood, but could not convert.  The Caps would end it before the Gimmick, though, when Dmitry Orlov carried the puck out of his own end down the left side, and when he got to the left wing circle unleashed a shot that clicked off the stick of Yegor Sharangovich and over the right shoulder of Blackwood for the game-winner at 4:39 of overtime, a 2-1 final.

Other stuff…

• John Carlson’s goal was his tenth of the season, giving him four straight 10-goal seasons. He and Jeff Petry are the only defensemen to date with four straight ten-goal seasons.
• The Caps broke a string of 11 games settled in regulation with this contest, their longest streak of 60-minute hockey of the season.
• Orlov’s overtime goal was his fifth goal of the season (second in his last six games) and second game-winner.
• Orlov and Ovechkin led the Caps with six shots on goal apiece, and both had 11 shot attempts.
• Richard Panik did himself no favors in replacing Jakub Vrana in the lineup. He had an absolutely snow white score sheet line in 10:15 of ice time, none of it in the last 7:21 of regulation or in overtime.
• The Caps outshot the Devils, 40-23, and out-attempted them 61-51.
• Garnet Hathaway led the Caps with five credited hits of the total of 11 the Caps had.
• John Carlson had a nice night, too… one goal, two shots on goal, five shot attempts, four blocked shots (led team), and 23:04 in ice time.
• Vitek Vanacek has his adventurous moments in this game, on rebound control mostly, but without his big time saves on Travis Zajac and Jack Hughes, the Caps don’t get the extra standings point.
• The Caps had a 34-26 edge in faceoff wins.

In the end…

It was not pretty, and the Devils have not played as bad as their six straight losses to the Caps would suggest.  They played rather well in this one, too.  But the Caps needed a grind-it-out win after the 8-4 shellacking they took at the hands of the New York Islanders last night, and that is precisely what they got.  On to Sunday.

 

A NO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 36: Islanders 8 - Capitals 4

The Washington Capitals took to the ice for the second of their five-game road tour through the New York metropolitan area with a contest against the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum.  The Caps drew first blood, but after that came the deluge, and when the skies cleared, the Islanders had an 8-4 win, their first against the Caps this season.

 

First Period

The game got off to an eventful start, and not in a good way for the Caps.  Just 30 seconds into the game, Ilya Samsonov was trying to move the puck around the boards from behind his own net when T.J.Oshie, coming from the direction that Samsonov was shooting the puck, collided with him, sending Samsonov to the ice.  After a consult with the trainer, Samsonov was taken out, Vitek Vanecek going in as relief.

And just 31 seconds after that delay, the Caps had a lead.  It was a play made possible by the hustle of Conor Sheary, who flagged down a air mail pass from Nicklas Backstrom, kept the puck in the offensive zone when challenged by defenseman Scott Mayfield and fought off two defenders to feed it to Tom Wilson, who found John Carlson steaming down the middle for a one-timer from the top of the circles to beat a stunned goalie Semyon Varlamov to open the scoring at the 1:01 mark.

New York tied the game at the 5:02 mark when an uncovered Jordan Eberle took a feed from Leo Komarov in the right wing circle and snapped a shot past Vanecek on the short side to make it a 1-1 game.

Late in the period, the Isles took their first lead of the game when Mathew Barzal threaded his way between Zdeno Chara and Brenden Dillion, firing a shot from the edge of the right wing circle past Vanecek to make it 2-1, 16:09 into the period.  That ended Vanecek’s tour in goal; Samsonov back in.

New York made it 3-1 off a pair of Caps turnovers on the same play.  Dmitry Orlov tried to settle an uncooperative puck to skate it around the back of the net, but lost it off his stick.  Anthony Beauvillier collected it below the goal line and sent it out front, but onto the stick of Caps defenseman Justin Schultz.  Schultz tried to shoot it into the corner and out of danger, but he managed only to put it on the stick of Brock Nelson who took the gift and scored through Samsonov’s pads at the 17:32 mark.

Daniel Sprong responded on a play that usually features Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin.  Taking a faceoff in the left wing circle, Lars Eller won it to Sprong, who adjusted his position to find a shooting lane and fired a shot that Varlamov barely flinched at as it went by at the 17:54 mark.

Barzal got his second of the game when Eberle collected a rebound of a Mayfield shot and slid it across to Barzal at the bottom of the left wig circle.  He spun and whipped a shot past Samsonov at 18:53 to make it 4-2, the lead the Isles took to the locker room at the first intermission.

-- Two goals in the first 16:09 of the period, four goals in the last 3:51.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 13-7, in the period and out-attempted them, 19-18.

-- Daniel Sprong was the only Capital with more than one shot on goal (two); four Caps had two shot attempts.

Second Period

New York appeared to put this one away barely three minutes into the middle frame whe n Casey Cizikas dug out a loose puck at the side of the net to Samsonov’s left and popped it past him inside the post to make it 5-2, 3:03 into the period.

Washington got a power play 5:59 into the period, too many Islanders in the water.  They converted 48 seconds later when T.J. Oshie took a rebound of an Ovechkin shot off his shin, redirecting it past Varlamov to make it a 5-3 game 6:47 into the period.

There would be no momentum from the power play goal, though. New York restored their three-goal lead just 1:21 later when Eberle got his second goal of the game, finishing a 2-on-2 break with Barzal, one-timing from the left wing circle Barzal’s pass past Samsonov at the 8:08 mark.

Carlson got his second into the game to get the Caps back within two goals.  It was a three-man passing game – Sprong from the top of the left wing circle cross-ice to Jakub Vrana in the left wing circle, to Carlson at the side of the net to the right of Varlamov for the tap-in with 58.9 seconds left in the period to close the scoring in the second period, Isles up, 6-4.

-- New York outshot the Caps, 9-7, in the period; the teams had 14 shot attempts apiece.

-- T.J. Oshie led in shots for the game through 40 minutes with three, two off his stick and one off his shin for a goal.

-- Zdeno Chara was credited with five hits to lead the Caps through two periods.

-- Washington was not credited with a takeaway over the first two periods.

Third Period

New York scored 3:13 into the period, collecting a loose puck that squirted off the stick of Nicklas Backstrom and fired it into the open side of the net past Samsonov to make it 7-4, Islanders.

The Isles got a power play chance when Backstrom went to the penalty box for high-sticking at 8:26.  New York did not convert, but they got another chance at the 14:59 mark when T.J. Oshie went off for hooking.  Barzal converted the chance to complete his hat trick, swatting a puck out of the air and into the back of the net at the 18:54 mark to make it 8-4, and that would be how the game ended.

Other stuff…

-- John Carlson’s two goals gave him seven multi-goal games in his career, tying Scott Stevens for fifth most in Caps history among defensemen.

-- The two goals gave Carlson 114 goals for his career, jumping over Calle Johansson and Mike Green into third place on the all-time Caps goal scoring list among defensemen (Srgei Gonchar: 144; Kevin Hatcher: 148).

-- Daniel Sprong had a goal and an assist, his second multi-point game this season and second in five games (0-2-2 vs. New Jersey on March 25^th).

-- With the loss, the Caps fell into a three-way tie with the Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins at the top of the East Division.  The Caps remain in first place on a tie-breaker (fewer games/higher points percentage).

-- The teams combined for 12 goals.  The last time they did so was in a 7-5 Islanders win on January 24, 1986.  Only four times in the 226-game history between these teams did they combine for more:

• October 8, 1983 (15): NYI 8 – Caps 7
• February 2, 1982 (13): NYI 7 – Caps 6
• January 1, 1992 (13): Caps 8 – NYI 5
• November 23, 1988 (13): Caps 7 – NYI 6

-- New York outshot the Caps, 33-22; the teams has 47 shot attempts apiece.

-- Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie led the Caps with four shots apiece; Wilson, Carlson, and T.J. Oshie led the team with five shot attempts apiece.

-- Zdeno Chara led the team with six credited hits.

-- The eight goals allowed were a season worst for the Caps. They allowed the Philadelphia Flyers seven goals in a 7-4 loss on Valentine’s Day.

-- Ilya Samsonov’s .750 save percentage (18 saves on 24 shots) was his worst of the season and tied for the worst of his brief career to date.  One of those games was last season against the Islanders, when he stopped 15 of 20 shots in a 5-3 loss on February 10, 2020; the other against the Boston Bruins (three saves on four shots) in a 7-3 loss on December 23, 2019.

In the end…

This game, it did

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 37/38: Capitals vs. Devils, April 2/4

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After hosting the New Jersey Devils in Washington last Thursday and Friday, the Caps head to Newark to face the Devils at Prudential Center on Friday and Sunday in a two-game set that will end the season series between the teams.  Washington has won all six games to date against the Devils.

Goals have been hard to come by for the Devils in this series.  They average 2.33 goals per game in the six games played to date, and in the last one they were blanked by Ilya Samsonov, 4-0.  Twelve Devils have goals in the series to date, but only Yegor Sharangovich and Miles Wood have two.  The 22-year old Sharangovich is having a good rookie season for New Jersey, tied for sixth in goals among rookies (seven) and tied for 13^th in points in that group (12).  On the other side, though, he is tied for a team-worst minus-5 rating in his five games against the Caps and has been on ice for eight even strength goals against, tied for most on the team.  Nevertheless, his season might be put in the win column for the Devils, who took him in the fifth round of the 2018 Entry Draft (141^st overall).  He is one of only three players taken in the fifth round or later in that draft to have appeared in at least one NHL game (Veini Vehvilainen and John Leonard being the others).  Sherangovich is 2-0-2, minus-5, in five games played against the Caps this season and for his career. 

Miles Wood is another later round draft pick who has worked out for the Devils.  Taken in the fourth round of the 2013 Entry Draft (100^th overall), Wood is in his sixth season with New Jersey.  While he has become a reliable double-digit goa scorer, posting at least ten goals in each of the last four seasons (including 11 this season to date), the number than jumps off the page on his resume is penalty minutes.  In those six seasons, Wood has 339 penalty minutes in 302 games.  Over those six seasons, Wood ranks tied for eighth among 546 players appearing in at least 200 games in penalties taken per 60 minutes (1.83).  He has whittled that penalty minute total down this season, though.  After starting the season with nine minutes in his first two games, Wood has only 12 penalty minutes in 32 games since.  Within the rules, he is having a career best season in goals per game (0.32) and points per game (0.44).  Wood is 2-1-3, even, in six games against the Caps this season and 6-2-8, minus-6, in 19 career games against Washington.

Only one Devils defenseman has a goal against the Caps this season.  Not P.K. Subban, not Calder contender Ty Smith.  It is Damon Severson.  That goal tied the game late in the third period, enabling the Devils to earn a standings point in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Caps on March 9^th (the only standings point the Devils have earned against the Caps this season).  Severson has been with the Devils for only seven seasons, but with 464 games played for New Jersey he is within ten games of Mike Kitchen for tenth place in games played by a defenseman for the Devils.  He is not generally considered an offensive defenseman, but he is eighth among defensemen in goals scored for the club over his career (39), and five of those were game-winners (tied for seventh among Devils’ defensemen all-time).  His 175 points as a Devil also rank him eighth on the all-time franchise list among defensemen.  Severson is 1-2-3, minus-1, in six games against the Caps this season, 4-7-11, minus-14, in 27 career games against Washington.

1.  Since February 20^th, when they started the day with a 6-3-2 record, the Devils are 7-13-3, their .370 points percentage being third-worst in the league over that span (Anaheim/5-12-3/.325; Buffalo/3-16-3/.205).

2.  The Devils’ 2.26 goals per game over those 23 games is the fourth-worst scoring offense over that span.

3.  New Jersey’s 13.4 percent power play over those same 23 games is third worst in the league (Anaheim/13.0 percent; Minnesota/12.7 percent).

4.  The Devils are one of only five teams since February 20^th with a losing record by winning percentage when scoring first (5-6-1/.417)).  Dallas (5-4-2/.455), St. Louis (2-0-3/.400), Anaheim (3-3-3/.333), and Buffalo (3-4-2/.333) are the others.

5.  New Jersey is the only team over that span without a win by three or more goals.

1.  Over that same span, since February 20^th, the Caps have the best points percentage in the league (15-4-1/.775).

2.  Over those 20 games, the Caps are averaging only 27.0 shots per game, tied with Buffalo for third fewest in the league (New York Rangers/26.8; Arizona/25.1).

3.  By the same token, only three teams have allowed fewer shots on goal than the Caps (26.8) – Dallas (26.5), Philadelphia (26.3), and Colorado (24.4) are the others.

4.  Over those 20 games, the Caps allowed as many third period goals (25) as they allowed in the first and second periods combined (25; 12 in the first periods, 13 in the second periods).

5.  Scoring first mattered to the Caps over that recent 20-game stretch.  Their 9-1-0 record when doing so is the third-best winning percentage over that span (.900).  Only Vegas (11-1-0/.917) and Edmonton (7-0-0/1.000) were better.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Jack Hughes

Washington has Alex Ovechkin, Pittsburgh has Sidney Crosby, Edmonton has Connor McDavid.  A signature player does not guarantee team success (see: “Connor McDavid”), but a lot of successful teams have them.  For the time being that player for the New Jersey Devils is Jack Hughes.  He was the prize of the 2019 Entry Draft, taken first overall by the Devils, and his is the early leader in his draft class in games played (95), assists (23), and points (37).  His 14 career goals to date are one behind the New York Rangers Kaapo Kakko (15) in that draft cohort. 

Hughes is already establishing himself as a player who matters, whose contributions are part of new Jersey’s success.  Over his two seasons in the NHHL so far, the Devils are 15-10-4 when Hughes registers at least one point, 24-30-12 when he does not, although that points-wins relationship is a bit depressed this season with New Jersey’s 5-5-2 record when he is on the score sheet.  He does seem to have hit a rut lately, though.  While he was 4-8-12, plus-2, in his first 16 games this season, he is 3-1-4, minus-1, in his last 18 games, over which the Devils are 6-9-3.  Hughes is 1-1-2, minus-4, in six games against the Caps this season, 1-1-2, minus-4, in nine career games against Washington.

Washington: John Carlson

He was born in Natick, Massachusetts, but a good portion of his formative years in hockey were spent in New Jersey, where his family moved when he was five years old.  His performance against the Devils over his career looks more like punishment than appreciation of the years spent there.  He has more career points against the Devils (35) than he has against any other NHL team, and his plus-33 rating is also higher than he has posted against any other team (and it’s not close, next highest is plus-17 against Tampa Bay). No active defenseman in the NHL has more career points against the Devils than Carlson (Zdeno Chara is second with 25), and his plus-33 career rating against New Jersey is best by 13 points among active defensemen (Ryan McDonagh is plus-20).  No active defenseman had most game-winning goals against New Jersey than Carlson (three; tied with Dmitry Kulikov).

Not that Carlson hasn’t been wreaking havoc on opponents’ defenses in general.  Since 2014-2015, Carlson ranks ninth in goals (79), third in assists (294) and points (373), fourth in points per game (0.78), fifth in even strength goals (58), fourth in even strength points (223), tied for fourth in power play points (147, with Victor Hedman), and tied for first in game-winning goals (22, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brent Burns).

Carlson has been consistent in his scoring so far this season, going with out a point in three consecutive games only twice.  If one breaks his production down by his tens, he was 4-7-11, minus-3, in his first ten games; 1-7-8, minus-4, in Games 11-20; 1-6-7, plus-4, in his next ten games; and he is 1-2-3, minus-2, in his last five games.  Only once this season did he log less than 20 minutes in ice time, that being in a 6-0 win over Buffalo on March 15^th in which he skated 19:51.  Carlson is 1-5-6, plus-6, in six games against the Devils this season and 6-29-35, plus-33, in 45 career games against New Jersey.

In the end…

Yes, the Caps have six wins in six tries against the Devils this season.  But on the other hand, four of those wins were by one goal, one of them in overtime.  The odd thing about the series, considering the venue in which it will be played, is that New Jersey scored fewer goals in the two games on home ice (two in each) than in all but one game in Washington.  Except for the shutout in their last visit to Capital One Arena, the Devils scored at least three goals in the other three games.  If the Caps can hold the Devils to two goals and not fall prey to their recent trend of coughing up multi-goal leads, they should sweep this two-game set and the season series.

Capitals 4 – Devils 2

Capitals 5 – Devils 2

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 36: Capitals vs. Islanders, April 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals visit Long Island for the first time this season when they faceoff against the New York Islanders on Thursday night.  The Caps are coming off a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers in which they held a 2-0 lead before the game was five minutes old.  The Islanders are returning home after a 2-2-0 road trip and carry a two-game losing streak into this game.

The Islanders have the best home record in the league by points percentage (.875/13-1-2), and unlike what one might expect from a Barry Trotz-coached team, they have the second best scoring offense on home ice this season to date (3.81 goals per game).

The Islanders built that scoring offense at home with balance – 16 different players have goals, and 21 have points at home this season – but they have also mixed in the unexpected.  For instance, the Isles’ leading goal scorer on home ice this year is not the uber-talented Mathew Barzal or the steady Brock Nelson or the injured Anders Lee.  It is Jean-Gabriel Pageau, tied with Jordan Eberle for the team lead with eight goals in 16 games at Nassau Coliseum.  There is a distinct home tilt to Pageau’s goal scoring, having those eight goals at home but only three in 19 road games this season.  He is in his first full season with the Islanders after being traded to New York in February 2020 by the Ottawa Senators for a first, second, and third round draft pick

Pageau was a capable contributor as mostly a bottom six forward in his first seven seasons, posting 63 goals and 142 points in 368 games.  However, he never hit the 20-goal mark over those seven seasons.  And then there was last year, his eighth season.  In 60 games with the Senators he posted 24 goals before he was shipped to the Islanders, for whom he added another two goals in seven games before the regular season was suspended.  Part of that jump in production might be attributed to getting more ice time and with it, more offensive responsibility.  After averaging 15:45 of ice time per game over his first seven seasons, he averaged 19:18 last season for Ottawa and 18:00 in his seven games with the Islanders to end the season.  This season, Pageau has 11 goals in 35 games while averaging 16:56 in ice time per game.  He is 0-1-1, minus-1, in three games against the Caps this season and 0-1-1, minus-13, in 21 career games against Washington.

Jordan Eberle has an odd connection to the Capitals.  He was drafted 22^nd overall in the 2008 Entry Draft.  By itself, that does not mean much, but the Capitals held the 23^rd overall pick in that draft.  They traded it, plus a second round pick (54^th overall) to New Jersey for the 21^st overall pick.  The Caps selected Anton Gustafsson with that pick, a player who would play one game as a professional in North America, that with the Hershey Bears.  Meanwhile, Eberle was drafted by Edmonton with the next pick, the one the Caps jumped over to take Gustafsson, and played 507 games in seven seasons with the Oilers before he was traded to the islanders for Ryan Strome in June 2017.  With New York he has 71 goals and 157 points in 253 games over four seasons.

This season, Eberle has a solid 11-10-21, plus-6 scoring line overall and is 8-5-13, plus-6, in 16 home games.  He shook off a five-game streak without a goal on home ice when he had what proved to be the game-winning goal in the Islanders’ 61 win over Philadelphia on Long Island in the Isles’ most recent home game on March 20^th.  Eberle is 0-1-1, plus-1, in three games against the Caps this season and 3-6-9, minus-10, in 24 career games against Washington.

Over his first 20 games this season, Semyon Varlamov put in his claim to be a Vezina Trophy finalist with a 13-4-3, 2.03, .929 record with three shutouts.  Things have not gone quite as smoothly for Varlamov lately, though.  In his last five appearances he is 1-3-0 (one no-decision).  lately, though.  It has not been a matter of overwork, Varlamov having faced 26.4 shots per 60 minutes over those five games, and average that is less than what he faced on a per-60 minutes basis over his hot 20-game start (28.4).

As the Islanders head down the stretch, the question about Varlamov is whether he can get back to his fine play over his first 20 games.  It bears noting that since he finished second in the Vezina Trophy voting on a record of 41-14-6, 2.41, .927, with two shutouts, he has been a good deal more average.  His goals against average of 2.72 over the last seven seasons, including this one, ranks 34^th among 65 goalies logging at least 5,000 minute in that span.  His .915 save percentage ranks 21^st in that group, and his even strength percentage of .919 ranks 37^th among 63 goalies appearing in at least 100 games over that period.  These are numbers of an above average goalie, not the Vezina candidate that Varlamov has been over the first two-thirds of the season.  Varlamov is 0-3-0, 3.76, .864 in three appearances against Washington this season and 4-9-1, 2.96, .914 in 14 career appearances against the Caps.

1.  Where the Caps have been strong in scoring by period (second periods), the Islanders have been weak.  While they rank third in the league in both first period goals scored (20) and third period goals scored (26), they have only 25 second period goals scored this season (tied for 23rd).

2.  New York leads the East Division in 5-on-5 goals scored on home ice (47) and ranks third in the entire league (Colorado: 48; Edmonton: 49).

3.  New York has allowed only 32 goals on home ice, tied with Boston for second fewest in the league (Minnesota: 30).

4.  The Islanders are the only team in the league with a perfect record on home ice when out-shooting their opponent (9-0-0).

5.  Scoring first seems not to matter to New York when playing at home.  They are 8-0-2 when scoring first 9.800 winning percentage), 5-1-0 when trailing first (.833 winning percentage).

1.  Washington has not lost consecutive games over a 22-game stretch dating back to February 16^th (17-4-1).

2.  But when they lost during that span of games, they lost.  All four regulation losses were by multi-goal margins, three by three or more goals.

3.  Only three teams have had fewer power play chances per game on the road that the Caps (2.56) – Buffalo (2.28), Columbus (1.94), and Anaheim (1.83).

4.  As a result of few road power play chances, the Caps have the second-worst road power play goal differential per game (0.19; power play goals per game less shorthanded goals allowed per game).  Only Columbus is worse (0.11).

5.  Of 22 skaters to dress for the Caps on the road this season, only two – Trevor van Riemsdyk and Jonas Siegenthaler – do not have a point.  Each has appeared in only two road games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Nick Leddy

Since he came into the league in 2010-2011, defensemen Nick Leddy has appeared in more games (756) than fellow defensemen Zdeno Chara (741), P.K. Subban (745), and Mark Giordano (735). He has more points (330) than Chara (302), Ryan McDonagh (307), or Cam Fowler (316).  He has logged more minutes (15,503) than Kevin Shattenkirk (14,778), T.J. Brodie (15,083), or Tyler Myers (14,527).  He has been a solid, if unspectacular defenseman for 11 seasons, the first four with the Chicago Blackhawks and the last seven with the Islanders after he was traded with Kent Simpson for T.J. Brennan, Ville Pokka, and Anders Nilsson.

Leddy has quietly climbed the Islanders all-time lists in variety of categories among defensemen.  He is two games short of becoming the eighth defenseman in team history to appear in 500 games with the club.  With two goals he will tie Jean Potvin for fifth place on the all-time Islanders list among defensemen.  Only three defensemen in Islanders history have more points than Leddy (237) – Tomas Jonsson (333), Stefan Persson (369), and Denis Potvin (1,052).  He needs one power play goal to jump into the top ten among defensemen where he would tie Roman Hamrlik (14).  He is eighth in team history among defensemen in power play points (83).  This season he has only one goal on 47 shots, but with 24 assists he is on a pace to establish a career high in points per game (0.69).  Leddy is 0-0-0, minus-4, in three games against the Caps this season and 1-7-8, minus-13, in 32 career games against Washington.

Washington: Jakub Vrana

Snipers are paid to snipe.  And when said sniper is scoring goals with career high efficiency, you would be forgiven for thinking he is having a big year.  So, why isn’t Jakub Vrana having a big year?  His 15.4 shooting percentage is the best of his five-year career to date.  However, his 0.29 goals per game (ten for the season in 34 games) is his third best in those five seasons. The problem is that he just has not gotten puck to the net.  Vrana has 65 shots in those 34 games, 1.96 shots per game, more than three-quarters of a shot per game short of what he averaged last season (2.71).

It was a progression of sorts that led to Vrana’s being largely absent from the score sheet in recent games.  He was 3-5-8, plus-6, I the first ten games of the season, recording 20 shots in ten games (2.00 per game) and converting them at a 15.0 percent rate. He remained productive in his next ten games, going 4-2-6, plus-1, but recording 27 shots on goal (2.70 per game), converting 14.8 percent of those shots into goals.  He scored three goals on nine shots in his next four games, but things have taken a turn in his last ten games.  He is without a goal in that span on just nine shots taken, and what might be of most concern, he averaged just 13:20 in ice time over those ten games, not what one would expect from a top-six forward.  In fact, his average even strength ice time per game for the season overall has slipped between Nic Dowd (12:25) and Conor Sheary (12:02).  Vrana is 0-1-1, minus-1, in three games against the Islanders this season and 4-5-9, even, in 18 career games against New York.

In the end…

More than the Pittsburgh Penguins, more than the New York Rangers, more than the Philadelphia Flyers, the Islanders are joined at the hip with the Caps in their respective histories.  Since the Islanders came into the league two seasons before Washington, they have 1,678 wins to the Caps’ 1,687.  The Caps averaged 3.15 goals per game to the Isles’ 3.16.  New York averaged 3.13 goals allowed to the Caps’ 3.16.  Both have averaged 29.3 shots per game.  There is, of course, the matter of the Islanders’ four straight Stanley Cups in the early 1980’s against the Caps’ lone Cup in 2018, but in the regular season there has been little daylight between the teams in their overall performance. But the Caps do have a decided edge against the Isles over their regular season histories.  The Caps have 114 wins against the Isles versus 98 wins for New York against the Caps.  And that includes the three wins the Caps posted so far this year against the Islanders.  Do we hear “four?”

Capitals 3 – Islanders 2