The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Sharks at Capitals, October 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After a quick trip to Beantown to sample the chowder and whoop the Boston Bruins last Saturday, the Washington Capitals return to home ice on Tuesday to meet the San Jose Sharks at Verizon Center.

The Capitals return to the friendly confines with a 1-0-1 record, a modest start in the eyes of some, but it is their best two-game start since 2011-2012.  And while it is only a two game start, revel in the fact, Caps fans, that in the all-important “plus-minus” statistic (see: “what matters for some players and not others”), no Capital – not even Alex Ovechkin – is a minus player.  None, nada.

The same could be said of their opponent.  And on top of that, the Sharks have yet to allow a goal so far.  Two games, two shutouts.  There was one for Antti Niemi on 34 shots in a 4-0 over the Los Angeles Kings and one for Alex Stalock in a 30-save gem in a 3-0 win over the Winnipeg Jets.

That goaltending duel for the Sharks might be something to watch as the season unfolds.  Niemi slipped some last season, seeing his goals against average climb from 2.16 in 2012-2013 to 2.39 last season and his save percentage dropping from .924 to .923.  Niemi was 20^th among 28 goalies playing in at least 40 games in even-strength save percentage (.919), down from third in 2012-2013 (.930).

On the other hand, there is Stalock.  He has only 28 games under his belt, but he carries a career 1.78 goals against average and a .934 save percentage in those games.  Last season he was 12-5-2, .932, 1.87 with two shutouts in 24 appearances.  That is not necessarily an expected (or even a sustainable) result.  Stalock was a fourth-round draft pick of the Sharks in 2005 and had, for the most part, an unspectactular minor league apprenticeship (145 regular season AHL games, 78-53-10, 2.60, .909).

Here is how the two teams compared in their final numbers from last season:

1.  It’s early, but San Jose has been putting it to teams early.  Of the seven goals they scored in two games, three have come in the first period, four in the second.  And in both games they scored goals before six minutes were gone, one against Los Angeles (5:43 into the game), two against Winnipeg (3:22, 5:12).

2.  Balance, balance.  San Jose has only employed the minimum 18 skaters so far, five of them sharing in the seven goals (Patrick Marleau and Tommy Wingels with two apiece), 12 of them sharing in the points (Marleau leading with four), and 17 of them recording at least one shot on goal).

3.  No team allowed fewer power play goals than did the Sharks last season (33).  The trick was not to go shorthanded.  No team faced fewer shorthanded situations than did San Jose (219, 13 fewer than the New York Rangers).

4.  San Jose, at least last season, could beat you close and could beat you big.  They were the only team in the NHL to finish in the top-five in one-goal (4^th), two-goal (4^th), and three-or-more-goal (5^th) winning percentage.

5.  San Jose was a superior possession team last season, but they under-performed their possession metrics.  The Sharks finished fifth in Corsi percentage at 5-on-5 (53.53 percent) and third in Fenwick percentage (54.44 percent), but they were only eighth in team goal percentage (53.31 percent).  

1.  OK, so it’s two games, but 26.5 shots against per game?  After two games last season the Caps had allowed 36.5 shots per game. 

2.  More from the “it’s early” file… Andre Burakovsky and Evgeny Kuznetsov are among 18 rookies who have recorded points so far.  Only Columbus, with three rookies getting points (Michael Chaput, Alexander Wennberg, and Marko Dano) have more.

3.  So far, only defenseman Matt Niskanen is averaging as many as 50 seconds per shift.  Last season, 12 Caps finished the season averaging at least 50 seconds per shift, let by Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green, who averaged 57 seconds each.  This season Ovechkin is averaging 47 seconds, Green is averaging 44 seconds.

4.  The Caps have one win in regulation time against San Jose at home since February 1999, a 4-1 win at Verizon Center on October 15, 2009.  The Caps are 1-7-2 at home against the Sharks over that span.

5.  Only six Capitals currently on the roster have scored goals against San Jose.  Alex Ovechkin has five of them; Nicklas Backstrom, Chris Brown, Eric Fehr, Dmitry Orlov (currently on injured reserve), and Joel Ward have one apiece.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose:  Joe Thornton

He is 35 years old, was stripped of his captaincy last August and selected one of four alternate captains, has one point in two games so far, is averaging the second lowest amount of ice time in his career (17:02).  But it’s early.  Still, it seems a bit odd the way a guy on the first year of a three-year/$20.5 million contract would be used.  It is not as if his production was dropping off the table.  Over the past four seasons he has averaged 0.88, 0.94, 0.83, and 0.93 points per game.  His cumulative 0.90 points per game over those four seasons ranks 22^nd among all players appearing in each of those four seasons and appearing in at least 150 games.  Is he being slowly eased out?  Against Washington he is 12-24-36 in 37 career games.

Washington: Mike Green

Mike Green has never scored a goal against the Sharks.  Okay, that’s only five games worth of career history.  Still, San Jose is one of only five teams, all in the Western Conference, against which Green has never scored a goal (Chicago, Dallas, Nashville, and Phoenix being the others).  He scored in his personal opener against Boston on Saturday, but he also had only two goals in his last 20 games to finish last season.  In that opener against Boston, Green was fifth among defensemen in even-strength ice time, third in power play ice time (he scored his goal), and fifth in shorthanded ice time.  It would be understandable if Green was brought along slowly after recuperating from an injury in pre-season that extended into the first week of the season.  With the Caps’ defensive depth, it will be interesting to see where Green falls on the depth chart in the weeks ahead.  He is 0-1-1 in five games against the Sharks.

In the end…

The season opening string of tough opponents continues.  And while the Caps finally slayed the dragon that lurked in SAP Center for more than 20 years, denying the Caps a win since October 1993 until they won there last March, the Caps still have a grim home record against this team to address.  On win in ten games over more than 15 years is not the stuff to scare a visitor such as the Sharks.  But the Caps looked effective, if not efficient (based on possession numbers), in their shutout of Boston on Saturday.  The first goal the Caps score will be the first scored against San Jose this season, the Sharks being one of two teams remaining not having allowed a goal.  But San Jose has a formidable offense to go with that unblemished scoring defense.  The challenges have gotten progressively stiffer for the Caps to open the season.  Think of it as an opportunity to measure themselves against the best.

Capitals 3 – Sharks 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 1

We return with our weekly feature, “That Was The Week That Was,” a look back at the Washington Capitals over the past seven days.  Week 1 was a new start for the Caps – a couple of rookies standing out and an old coach turned “rookie” getting his first win as the Capitals’ bench boss.

Record: 1-0-1

The Capitals got no break from the schedule makers to start the 2014-2015 season.  Their first four games are against the Montreal Canadiens, the Boston Bruins, the San Jose Sharks, and the New Jersey Devils.  The first three of those teams on the schedule reached the post season in 2013-2014 and had a combined regular season record of 151-69-26.  The Devils are thought to be much improved and have scored 11 goals in their first two games.

The Caps navigated their first two games of that stretch in decent fashion, the inability to hold a lead in the third period against the Canadiens in a 2-1 Gimmick loss being the blemish on the week.  From a distance, though, getting three points against two of the Atlantic Division powerhouses can be thought of as a good week.  The win over the Bruins was especially satisfying, give the respective prognostications for the two clubs, but was not entirely unexpected.  The 4-0 win over the Bruins made the Caps 6-3-0 in their last nine visits to Boston and 5-1-0 in their last six decisions against the Bruins overall.

Offense: 2.50/game (season: 2.50 / T-18^th)

The Caps started well against the Canadiens, recording seven shots on goal in the first 6:43, the last of them being Andre Burakovsky’s first NHL goal.  The Caps continued peppering goalie Carey Price (oops...Dustin Tokasrski... thank you, readers), putting 11 shots on net in the first 9:47.  That would be it for the Caps, though, their energy to start the home opener perhaps have dissipated.  Over the last 50:13 of regulation time and five minutes of overtime the Caps recorded only 19 shots on goal, none of them finding the back of the net.

Against Boston the Caps were more effective on the scoreboard, but the fickle finger of fate was particularly fickle with respect to the outputs.  Washington managed only 21 shots on goal against the Bruins, only 15 of them at even strength.  Part of that might be score effect – the Caps had only three even strength shots in the third period of a game they led, 3-0, after 40 minutes.

Although the week was not particularly explosive on the offensive side, it was balanced.  Four players shared in the five goals (Alex Ovechkin getting two against Boston), nine players shared in a total of 14 points.  Andre Burakovsky led the week in the latter with three points on his first NHL goal and a pair of assists.

Defense: 0.50/game (season: 0.50 / 3^rd)

Two games is about as small a sample size as you get, but giving up a total of 53 shots on goal for the week (26.5/game, ninth fewest) against a couple of talented teams has to be considered a good thing. And, the Caps avoided the bane of their existence on defense last season – allowing a goal within two minutes of scoring one of their own.  On the other hand, allowing 58 shot attempts to the Bruins in the second game of the week while getting only 38 of their own had the sense of playing with fire.

The defensive pairs are a concern in that they are all new.  Jack Hillen/Mike Green (Green missed the opener against Montreal) and Nate Schmidt, Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen, John Carlson and Brooks Orpik are in that getting-to-know-you period, and at times it showed.  That third pair – Carlson and Orpik – was especially noteworthy and not in the best way.  All six defensemen had positive Corsi plus-minus at 5-on-5 against Montreal, but the picture looked very different against Boston.  The Carlson/Orpik pair was steamrolled at even strength as far as the possession numbers were concerned.  Both had double-digit minus numbers in both Corsi and Fenwick plus-minus.

Goaltending: 0.48 GAA / .981 SV / 1 shutout

Braden Holtby served early notice that goaltending will not be a weakness for the Caps.  Unencumbered by a coaching philosophy that was contrary to his nature, as was employed for large parts of last season, Holtby shined coming out of the gate.  He was good against Montreal, better against Boston. His 29-save effort against the Bruins featured a number of top-notch saves, including big ones after two bad Caps turnovers that left Bruins with point-blank opportunities from the slot.

Even the one goal he allowed for the week – a third-period tally by Montreal’s Tomas Plekanec – was a shot through a maze of bodies that might have been deflected on its way through.  There were no soft spots in Holtby’s game in Week 1.  Well, except for that whole Gimmick thing.  Holtby allowed three goals in five rounds of the trick shot competition.  It was reminiscent of last season in which among 29 goalies facing at least 20 shots in the Gimmick, Holtby was 17^th in save percentage (.679).

Power Play: 2-9 / 22.2 percent (season: 22.2 percent /  rank: T-12^th)

It was a case of the old reliables doing the damage.  Alex Ovechkin, who did not have a power play shot on goal against Montreal as the Caps went 0-for-5, had two shots on the man advantage against Boston, scoring on one of them.  Then there was Mike Green, who missed the opener against the Canadiens and who finds himself as the second option on the point on the power play depth chart (under John Carlson), potting a goal on his only shot in the Caps’ 4-0 win over Boston.

It was a tale of two games with respect to power play efficiency.  Washington managed only four shots on goal in 6:56 of power play time against Montreal, two of those shots coming from outside by defensemen (Matt Niskanen, John Carlson).  Against Boston, the Caps were sharper – six shots on goal in 4:43 of power play time, four of those shots coming from forwards, two of them by Ovechkin, who recorded one of the two power play goals against the Canadiens.  Mike Green got the other one when he was left alone on the weak side of the power play formation.  Evgeny Kuznetsov found him for the score, fellow rookie Andre Burakovsky getting the other assist.  It is a new day on the power play.

Penalty Killing: 9-9 / 100.0 percent (season: 100.0 percent / rank: T-1^st)

Last season, Montreal did not have an especially potent power play (17.2 percent, tied for 19^th).  Boston had one, though (21.7 percent, third in the league).  Either way, 9-for-9 is a good week.  Being good meant being efficient.  The Caps allowed the Canadiens only six shots on goal on five power plays in 6:56 of power play time.  Against Boston those numbers were five shots on four power plays in eight minutes of power play time.  Of the 11 shots Holtby faced on the opponent’s power play for the week seven of them came from defensemen.  Neither Montreal nor Boston was able to get much in the way of close-in opportunities, at least in terms of being able to get shots on goal from that area of the zone.

This is where the Carlson/Orpik pair performed much better.  In 14:56 of total opposition ice time on the power play for the week, John Carlson logged 10:00, Orpik logged 8:27, by far the most shorthanded ice time of any Caps defensemen.   On the other hand, all seven defensemen who saw action this week got some penalty killing work, even if Nate Schmidt (0:36) and Mike Green (0:24) got only a taste of it (every other defenseman recorded at least one minute of shorthanded ice time).

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 3-1 / plus-2 (season: 3-1; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio rank: 4^th)

If one thing contributed to the Caps’ misfortune more than any other from a performance standpoint last season it was their ratio of goals scored to goals allowed at 5-on-5.  Their 0.90:1 ratio ranked 23^rd in the league, their 155 goals allowed at 5-on-5 ranked tied for 19^th.  Starting off with a 3-1 margin in Week 1 is getting off on the right foot.  And, small samples notwithstanding, the Caps got an even strength goal from each of the top three forward lines: Alex Ovechkin, Andre Burakovsky, and Joel Ward getting them for the first, second, and third lines, respectively.

Faceoffs:  53-for-126 / 42.1 percent (season: 42.1 percent / rank: 30^th)

Faceoffs were a case of getting off on the wrong foot.  Whether one things faceoffs are important or not, ranking 30^th in the league in anything is not a good thing.  And, it was not a case of being particularly poor in any one zone.  If anything, the Caps were worse in the offensive zone (40.8 percent) and defensive zone (40.5 percent) than they were in the neutral zone (45.7 percent). 

Nicklas Backstrom took the largest share of draws and was respectable overall (50.0 percent on 40 faceoffs), and Troy Brouwer won seven of 11 draws.  After that it gets bad very quickly.  The rooies Kuznetsov (6-for-13) and Burakovsky (4-for-19) had it rough.  So, too, did Brooks Laich (8-for-25).  Hopefully, that’s just rust.

Goals by Period:

Two games, goals scored in every period overall, three first period goals.  That’s the good part.  That third period goal allowed against Montreal is the smudge on the shine in this area for the week.  What the Caps avoided, to their credit, was the soul-crushing goal in the last two minutes of a period.  They scored two of those of their own – an Alex Ovechkin goal with 1:21 left in the first period of the 4-0 win over Boston and a goal by Joel Ward with 1:14 left in that contest, although by that time the game was all but wrapped up.

In the end…

All in all, not a bad week.  Two games against quality opponents, three of four points earned.  When one considers that the Caps were starting a true rookie in his first NHL action as center on the second line (and having him score a goal to boot) and missing top defenseman Mike Green for the opener, the week looked even better.  Individually, players who have to perform – Alex Ovechkin (two goals), Nicklas Backstrom (two assists), and Braden Holtby (one goal on 53 shots faced) – did just that.  Throw in the contributions of Burakovsky (three points) and Kuznetsov (one assist, and might have had another until the last goal in the Bruins game was changed from John Carlson to Joel Ward), and it was a good start to the season.

A TWO-point night -- Game 2: Capitals 4 - Bruins 0

The Washington Capitals got their first win of the 2014-2015 season when they rode a pair of goals by Alex Ovechkin and a 29-save effort by goalie Braden Holtby to blank the Boston Bruins 4-0, at TD Garden in Boston.  For an in-depth look at what took place, take a look at what we posted over at Japers’ Rink. 

Some other thoughts…

-- Someday, teams will figure out just how to stop the Alex Ovechkin one-timer from the circle.  It appeared early on that the Bruins had an answer, having forward Loui Eriksson cheating high to positon himself to break up the pass from the point to Ovechkin.  But at some point, that forward has to play honest and defend a potential shot from the point.  When Eriksson slid over to get in the way of a potential John Carlson shot, the lane for the pass opened up once more.  Pass-shoot-score.

-- When you have spent 280 games in the AHL, 142 games in the ECHL, and 135 games in a variety of other leagues, and you are almost 33 years old without having played in an NHL game, you are going to try to make a mark when you get your chance.  Bobby Robins is that player, having waited for his chance to skate in the NHL.  In this, his third NHL game, he made his first shift memorable.  He collided knee-on-knee with Caps defenseman Matt Niskanen, then when the referee signaled a delayed penalty, he tore off at the first Capitals he saw.  In this instance it was Michael Latta.  Robins tried to egg Latta on to do something stupid and even up the penalties, but merely managed to take Latta off with him on coincidental fighting majors.  That didn’t work so well for Boston.  The Caps scored eight seconds into the man advantage.

-- John Carlson and Karl Alzner, while not paired on defense in this game, managed to be linked in one respect.  Each defenseman – Carlson in the first period, Alzner in the third – gift wrapped chances for Boston.  Each one tried to send a pass through the middle of the ice from the corner, and both times the aimless passes were picked off by Boston forwards.  Braden Holtby was up to the challenge, though, stopping Chris Kelly in the first instance and Carl Soderberg in the other.

-- The optics of the Caps style through two games suggests a more aggressive approach than they displayed last season.  Although the Bruins dominated puck possession, the Caps did a credible job limiting time and space for the Bruins to make decisions with the puck.  In other words – more pressure on the puck carrier.

-- Little things.  The Bruins are a good faceoff team, but things got ridiculous as the game wore on.  Boston held a 12-9 advantage after the first period.  They were 14-7 in the second period and 8-3 in the third. 

The win was the Caps’ fifth in their last six regular season games against Boston, outscoring the Bruins by an 18-14 margin (not including Gimmick goals).  It leaves the Caps 1-0-1 in a rough four-game start to the 2014-2015 season.  Having earned points against the Bruins and the Montreal Canadiens, the Caps will now face the San Jose Sharks and the resurgent New Jersey Devils (11 goals in two wins so far) to start the coming week.  If nothing else, it is a good early season benchmarking exercise.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: Capitals at Bruins, October 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their new “Barry Trotz” model on the road for a test drive on Saturday, visiting TD Garden in Boston to face the Bruins in a match-up of teams that had very different finishes in 2013-2014 and that have very different aspirations in 2014-2015. 

The Capitals are a team that has been on a slow slide from the discussion of Stanley Cup contenders in 2010 to also-ran status last year, failing to reach the post-season for the first time since 2007.  For the Capitals, returning to the playoffs is a reasonable goal.  The Stanley Cup finals?  That is something else.  Not impossible, mind you, but it seems a bigger reach.

On the other hand, there are the Boston Bruins.  For all the words spent describing the talent and achievements of the Chicago Blackhawks, the Los Angeles Kings, and even the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Bruins have won more regular season games over the last four seasons (177) than every other team in the league except the Penguins (187).  Since 2008, no team – not Chicago, not Los Angeles, not Detroit or Pittsburgh – has won more playoff games than Boston (57).

This year’s edition of the Bruins is once more in the discussion of team expected to challenge for a berth in the Stanley Cup finals.  They are skilled, ornery, and deep.  Last season they had ten players with ten or more goals, 18 with ten or more points, 15 with a plus-minus of plus-10 or better.  Sixteen different players had game-winning goals, 12 had power play goals, and 20 players had at least ten penalty minutes (10 with at least 40).

Here is how the two teams compare in their 2013-2014 final numbers:

 

1.  Stingy.  Only once over the past six seasons have the Bruins ranked lower than third in scoring defense (sixth in 2011-2012).  Over those six seasons the Bruins averaged allowing only 2.28 goals per game.

2.  Inside-out.  It is a bit odd to find a defenseman leading a team in power play goals, but such were the Bruins last season.  Zdeno Chara led the club with ten in 2013-2014, three more than Patrice Bergeron.

3.  Tidal Wave. No team had more wins by three or more goals last season than Boston.  It wasn’t close, either.  The Bruins had 26 such wins, almost half of their 54 wins, while St. Louis had 21 wins by three or more goals.  By the same token, no team had fewer losses than by three or more goals than the Bruins (4).

4.  Ornery, yes; stupid, no.  One might think that a team with the reputation that goes with being the “Big Bad Bruins,” they might be a heavily penalized team.  Not really, or at least not as much as you might think.  The Bruins’ 292 minor penalties taken was 12^th-fewest in the league last season.  They did finish second in the league in fighting majors, though, with 46 (Toronto had 48).

5.  First, last, and in-between.  The Bruins allowed both the fewest first period goals last season(44) and the fewest third period goals (56).  Only Detroit (67), St. Louis (61), and Los Angeles (57) allowed fewer second period goals than Boston (68).

1.  The Caps led the NHL in power play goals last season (68).  On the other hand, only three teams allowed more shorthanded goals against than the ten the Caps gave up: Philadelphia (11), Toronto (12), and Edmonton (13).

2.  Since Alex Ovechkin came into the league, only one active player is within 125 goals scored of the 422 he has.  Jarome Iginla has 310.  Dany Heatley is next among active players with 292.   He also leads in total points scored over that period (814), 42 more than Sidney Crosby (772).

3.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom were the first players to go one-two in power play points since… Ovechkin and Mike Ribeiro did it for the Caps in 2012-2013.  The last time teammates finished one-two in power play points was in 2003-2004 when Marian Hossa and Daniel Alfredsson did it for the Ottawa Senators.

3.  Symmetry.  The Caps scored 68 power play goals last season, 34 at home and 34 on the road. 

4.  The Caps allowed only 21 power play goals on the road last season, sixth fewest in the league.  That was nine fewer than they allowed at home, the largest such negative difference between home and road in the league.

5.  Your Andre Burakovsky number: 1. Through Thursday’s games 36 rookies dressed in games to start the season.  The only goal scored among they was Andre Burakovsky’s first NHL goal on his second NHL shot in his first NHL game.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston:  Patrice Bergeron

Over the course of his ten year career coming into this season, Patrice Bergeron recorded 31 points against the Capitals in 32 career games (0.97 points per game). Among 16 teams he has faced more than ten times, the only larger points-per-game mark he as is 1.00 points per game against the Los Angeles Kings (11 points in 11 career games).  And if there is any further evidence one needs about his all-around ability, over the course of that career Bergeron has received votes for the Calder (eighth in 2004), Byng (seven times receiving votes), Selke (five times, two wins), and Hart (three times).  For good measure he also has won a King Clancy Trophy for leadership and humanitarian contributions, and he has received all-star team votes in each of the last three years, finishing as high as fourth among centers last season.  He is 8-23-31, minus-3 in 32 games against the Caps.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov has played in only 18 regular season games in the NHL.  However, in his season debut on Thursday he skated for 6:36 in ice time, his lowest amount of ice time to date in those 18 games.  He skated only 4:10 at even strength and did not record a shot on goal at either even strength or in the 2:26 he skated on the power play.  He did not record a shot attempt.  That is what skating on a fourth line with a rookie (Liam O’Brien, 2:40 in total ice time) and a prospect (Chris Brown, 3:42 in total ice time) on the fourth line will do.  This was not the kind of season opener Kuznetsov might have imagined, especially after making such a good impression in his 17 games to close last season.  New season, new coach, and he has to earn his time, but so long as he is skating with O’Brien and Brown (19 total games between them), ice time might be hard to come by.  He has one career game against the Bruins, scoring a goal in a 4-2 loss to Boston last March 29^th.

In the end…

The Caps have had as much success as anyone against the Bruins lately.  They are 4-1-0 in their last five games against Boston and 6-3-0 since November 2010.  The Bruins are still the Bruins, a team that is largely unchanged in key personnel and style for what seems like the last 20 years.  They are good, know it, and have high aspirations.  The Caps are a team in transition (again), looking to find a comfort level employing new personnel and applying a new philosophy.  They are a work in progress, and progress is what is hoped for after the disappointing result in the opener against Montreal.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

A ONE-Point Night -- Game 1: Canadiens 2 - Capitals 1 (OT/Gimmick)

It started so well. The Washington Capitals celebrated their 40th anniversary playing hockey in the NHL by bringing back some of the greatest players in team history. But the start of the party was a lot happier than the end of it as the Montreal Canadiens spoiled the fun with a 2-1 Gimmick win at Verizon Center.

One of the surprises of training camp, Andre Burakovsky, continued to impress when he took a centering pass from Troy Brouwer and one-timed the puck past goalie Dustin Tokarski to give the Caps their first lead of the season in the game’s seventh minute.

The Caps continued pounding pucks at the Montreal net, at one point leading the Canadiens in shots on goal, 14-0. The Canadiens did not record their first shot on goal until there was just 2:24 left in the period and went to the locker room at the first intermission outshot by a 15-2 margin.

The trouble with that kind of domination is that if you don’t capitalize on it with more than a single goal, you often pay for it later. That was the case on this night. The teams played through a scoreless second period with the visitors controlling much of the play, and in the third period, they finally broke through. Tomas Plekanec started the play by picking up a loose puck in the right wing corner and moving it up the wall to Tom Gilbert at the point. As Gilbert sent the puck back down to Alex Galchenyuk, Plekanec continued circling around the faceoff circle, finding an opening to take a pass from Galchenyuk. Hockey being what it is, the Caps then lost a game of inches. Karl Alzner missed blocking Galchenyuk’s pass by inches. Alex Ovechkin missed lifting Plekanec’ stick by inches. And then, Plekanec’ snap shot threaded its way past Nicklas Backstrom and Matt Niskanen by the thinnest of margins, flying just under the bar past goalie Braden Holtby to tie the game with 9:29 left in regulation.

That would do it for the hockey portion of the evening, leaving the decision up to the trick shot competition. Backstrom and Eric Fehr converted for the Caps in the first three rounds, Galchenyuk and David Desharnais for the Canadiens. When Ovechkin and Plekanec came up empty in the fourth round, it was up to the rookie for the Caps, Burakovsky. His attempt was foiled, leaving it up to Brendan Gallagher for Montreal. Gallagher skated in with speed, and the slightest hesitation in firing the puck seemed to freeze Holtby for an instant. It was enough. Gallagher’s shot snuck past Holtby’s glove, and it was Montreal celebrating at game’s end.

Other stuff… 

-- One game, minus-1. The vigil on Alex Ovechkin’s plus-minus begins.

-- Andre Burakovsky was not the only rookie to make fans take notice on this evening. When Brandon Prust stood up Jack Hillen behind the Washington net in the second period, Liam O’Brien quickly stepped in and engaged Prust in some fisticuffs. It was a reasonably even duel, the rookie giving a good account of himself against a player with more than 100 regular season bouts.

-- Sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. Fights that is…change momentum. When O’Brien and Prust went at it, the Caps had an 18-3 edge in shots and a 1-0 lead on the scoreboard. After that, the Canadiens outshot the Caps, 27-6, tied the game, and won it in the freestyle competition.

-- Marcus Johansson had three shots on goal last night. Last season he had three shots on goal over his first seven games.

-- Last season the Caps’ power play started like someone set a match to gasoline, 3-for-6 in their opener against Chicago and 6-for-12 over their first three games.  Last night it was 0-for-5 and managed only four shots on goal, none of them by Alex Ovechkin.  Nineteen times last season the Caps had five or more power plays in a game; seven times they came up empty.  It does not happen often, but it happens.

-- A shot attempt advantage of 65-46 bodes well for the Caps.  Do that regularly, the wins will come.

-- Three of those shot attempts came off the stick of Karl Alzner.  He has averaged only 0.87 shots per game in his career, but last year had a career high of 1.16 per game.  If he can get shots to the net it opens other things up, even if he does not score.

-- Of the 65 shot attempts, 20 of them came from the top line of Ovechkin (10), Nicklas Backstrom (3), and Eric Fehr (7); eight of the 30 shots on goal came from that group.

-- Bet no one had Evgeny Kuznetsov getting only 6:36 in ice time in the season opener, more than a third of it (2:26) on the power play.  He skated only two shifts in the third period, none in the last 12:40 (he did have a shift in overtime).

-- At the other end, Matt Niskanen’s first game as a Cap was busy.  More than 20 minutes at even strength (22:30), more than two minutes both penalty killing (2:02) and on the power play (2:10) for a total of 26:42.

-- Nicklas Backstrom was 15-for-23 on draws (65.2 percent), the rest of the team was 19-for-50 (38.0 percent).

In the end…

The Caps are already ahead of where they were at this point last season.  They have a standings point.  But as happens so often when a team has a lot of energy at the start of a game, particularly in an emotionally charged atmosphere, if they don’t convert their early chances, that energy often dissipates, and the opponent can take advantage.  Even though the Canadiens played the previous night, that is what appeared to happen to the Capitals, especially after the O’Brien-Prust dust-up.

There is nothing especially noteworthy to take away from this game, good or bad.  It is one of 82, one that folks probably won’t much remember months from now.  Well, some might remember this…

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 1: Canadiens at Capitals, October 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Boy, it feels good to say those words again. Words we will NOT say again are these, at the bottom of our prognosto to start the 2013-2014 season… “Washington Capitals Stanley Cup Champions 2014.”

What we will prognostify is that the Capitals will: a) be better than they were last seasons, and b) will return to the playoffs. The march to that end begins on Thursday night with the season and home opener against the Montreal Canadiens. And this, being Washington, we wanted to get some insight on the contest from a man who is no stranger to conflict, intrigue, and dirty tricks, the President of the United States.

No, not Barack Obama, the REAL President of the United States, Francis Joseph Underwood. Mr. President, it is a pleasure to welcome you…

"It is, isn’t it?"

Yes, well, I guess the first question I have for you is, I know you’ve been a devoted follower of the sport, especially the Capitals. What is it you like about them this season?

Well, they are an underdog, but it seems that few in the hockey media give the Caps much of a chance to make the post-season. Do you pay attention to those kinds of predictions?

"I have no patience for useless things."

Still, all you hear about is how the Islanders have improved, the Blue Jackets, the Devils, even the Panthers...

On to another subject. Last year the Caps were seen as being too passive, lacking enough aggression to make teams sit up and take notice. They seem to have adopted a more aggressive approach under new head coach Barry Trotz. Maybe they’re taking a page out of your playbook. How would you characterize it in terms of what you wanted to inflict on opponents?

Can you elaborate on that?

"There are two kinds of pain... the sort of pain that makes you strong, or useless pain, the sort that's only suffering."

So you’re saying…

At the end of the season, what do you think Capitals Nation will be saying to the rest of the NHL?

And on that, Mr. President, I want to thank you giving us a moment of your time.

The Capitals have a long history; 153 regular season meetings (the Caps are 64-69-17-3), a memorable seven-game playoff match-up in 2010. What they do not have is an Opening Night game against the Canadiens in any of their previous 39 seasons.

As the Caps embark on their 40th anniversary season, it is perhaps fitting that they should meet a new opponent for an Opening Night contest. The Caps are, after all, set on a new path with a new general manager (Brian MacLellan), a new head coach (Barry Trotz), and two new free agent defensemen (Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik) to hopefully give the Caps a new sense of depth on the blue line that they have not had in more than a decade.

As for the Canadiens, the most storied franchise in the history of the sport with 24 NHL championships and nine other appearances in the league finals, they have neither won nor appeared in a Stanley Cup final since 1992-1993 and have “only” two Stanley Cup wins in the last 34 seasons. If only the Caps had so few wins.

In Montreal, however, this represents unfulfilled expectations, and the question is whether this edition of the Canadiens can contend for the prize.  Last year’s team, playing in the loaded (by Eastern Conference standards) Atlantic Division, finished third behind the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. However, they still had the fourth best record in the conference and tied the Los Angeles Kings for the ninth best record in the league (46-28-8 for 100 points).

1.  Montreal’s 5-on-5 goals ratio (0.99) last season was one of only two teams in the playoffs last season whose ratio was under 1.00.  Philadelphia (0.96) was the other.

2.  Only three teams had more power play opportunities on the road last season than the Canadiens’ 139: Florida (142), Pittsburgh (142), and the Caps (143).

3.. Montreal was tied for fourth in fewest goals allowed in the first period last season (53).  Los Angeles (49), San Jose (47), New Jersey (45), and Boston (44) allowed fewer.

4.  The Canadiens were one of seven teams not to lose a game in regulation last season when leading after two periods.  They had the third-best winning percentage (.921), behind only Anaheim (.930) and Florida (.938).  Yes, Florida, but they only had 16 such games (15-0-1).

5.  Among players drafted in 2007 having played in at least 100 games, Max Pacioretty is tied with Dallas’ Jamie Benn for third in career goals per game (0.34).  Only Patrick Kane (0.35) and Logan Couture (0.38) have averaged more.

1.  Washington was another of those seven teams last season not to have lost a game in regulation after taking a lead into the third period.  However, they were only tied for 14^th in winning percentage, having taken only 28 such leads (24-0-4).

2.  Washington was fourth in the league last season in second period goals scored (90).  They were one of only four teams with a plus-20 goal differential from both the second period to the first (+28) and second to the third (+21) periods.   Anaheim, Carolina, and the New York Islanders were the others.

3.  The Caps scored 66 5-on-4 goals last season, first in the league.  They scored one goal at 5-on-3; only Dallas and Buffalo didn’t score one.

4.  Only Toronto and Buffalo (65 times apiece) were out-shot more last season than the Caps (58).  Worse, the Caps had the sixth worst winning percentage in such games (.431), even though only three teams won more games: Montreal (26), Toronto (30), and Colorado (35).

5.  Brooks Laich is 14^th in his 2001 draft class in career goals scored.   Of those top 14 goal scorers, only Jussi Jokinen (taken 192^nd over all) and Laich (193rd overall) were taken later than 100^th overall .

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Carey Price

The 2007 draft class was a pretty good one for goaltenders.  Five have played in at least 100 games in the NHL: Ben Bishop (108), Tuukka Rask (196), Ondrej Pvavelec (288), Jonathan Quick (335), and Carey Price (369), who was the first goalie taken (fifth overall).  He has more wins than any in this group (179) and the second best career save percentage (.917 to Rask’s .928).  Against Washington, however, he has had his struggles.  In 16 career appearances against the Caps, Price is 4-9-3, 3.24, .894.  Those goals against and save percentage numbers against the Caps are his worst career numbers of any Eastern Conference team he has faced.  He was not any better last season.  In one appearance he allowed four goals on 22 shots in 30 minutes, a .846 save percentage and a 7.92 goals against average.  If there is a  team who can light him up, it’s Washington.

Washington:  Alex Ovechkin

Right out of the box, eyes will be on Alex Ovechkin and that whole “buy-in” thing with respect to his new coach and a new philosophy.  But let’s not forget what made Ovechkin famous.  He has scored 20 or more career goals against ten teams, one of them being the Canadiens, against whom he has 20 goals.  Three of them came in three games against the Canadiens last season.  And here is your scary Ovechkin number: 12.  Alex Ovechkin has scored 12 goals in nine home openers, drawing blanks only in 2012 against Carolina and 2013 against Winnipeg.  Don’t be surprised if he gets off to a fast start in front of the home folks.

In the end…

Montreal is widely regarded as a playoff team; Washington is not.  However, the Caps seem to have Montreal’s number more often than not.  Since January 2008, the Caps are 18-5-2 against the Canadiens, including 2-1-0 last season.  Price has lost his last three decisions to the Caps, allowing 12 goals on 78 shots (.846 save percentage) in 149 minutes of play (4,81 goals against average).  Most folks will look on paper and think, “Montreal.”  Recent performance suggests otherwise.

Capitals 4 – Canadiens 2

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- The Reinforcements

“The secret of success in life is for a man to be ready for his opportunity when it comes.”

-- Benjamin Disraeli

Last season the Washington Capitals employed 21 forwards, 14 defensemen, and four goaltenders. In the abbreviated 2012-2013 season the numbers were 16/12/3; in 2011-2012 they were 17/10/3.

The point is, no team gets by with a 22- or 23-man roster. There will be occasions – poor play, player transactions, injury – that will necessitate bringing players up from the farm or, in one case, allowing one to play himself into the lineup. Those will be opportunities for which some players either will be ready or not, in which they will be successful or not.

For the Washington Capitals there are eight players that bear watching to see the extent to which they take advantage of the opportunities they earned or that circumstance will present to them, three forwards, four defensemen, and a goaltender.

The Forwards

Andre Burakovsky, the 23rd overall pick in the 2013 entry draft, has played himself onto the opening night roster. Not only that, he might very well start as the second line center against the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday. If so, he would be the first rookie to center a scoring line for the Capitals on Opening Night in at least a decade (in his first game with the Capitals in 2007, Nicklas Backstrom played right wing with center Michal Nylander and left wing Brooks Laich).

The early thinking (well, ours) was that there was no rush in putting a 19-year old prospect (he will be 20 in February) on the roster when he could gain experience in a lead role in Hershey. Instead, he played in six of the Caps’ eight preseason games, went 2-2-4, plus-3, averaged more than 16 minutes of ice time, and otherwise acquitted himself very well. If anything, he outplayed the odds-on favorite to win the second line center position, Evgeny Kuznetsov, the rookie who was getting some attention as a potential Calder Trophy finalist as the league’s top rookie.

Until now, his limited (if prolific) offensive numbers in one year of Canadian junior hockey might have been explained away as being the product of playing with number-one-overall-draft-pick-in-waiting Connor McDavid. In his first taste of NHL hockey, though, Burakovsky has given tempting glimpses of his ability to do it on his own. But that was preseason hockey, much of it facing players who will not be with the clubs he played against once the real games begin. That argues for tempering expectations for Burakovsky. The NHL is an 82-game grind for which 19-year olds generally have no frame of reference. There will be bumps in the road and walls to negotiate. For Burakovsky, the opportunity is one of demonstrating, not that he belongs (he has done that for the time being), but in being able to show steady improvement, to be a much more well-developed player in April than he is on Opening Night.

Projection: 66 games, 11-17-28, minus-1

*****

Casey Wellman was not drafted by an NHL team. After two years with the University of Massachusetts, he bounced around the AHL, playing for four teams, and getting the occasional call up to the NHL. In four seasons, Wellman has appeared in a total of 54 games, never more than 15 in any one of them (he appeared in 13 games for the Caps last season). He is, in every sense, a hockey “journeyman.” That is not necessarily a bad thing. In that journey, one learns how to play the game. And when called upon with an opportunity to play at the NHL level, it is important that such a player not be a liability. Wellman, arguably, was not. The Caps had a record of 8-4-1 in games in which Wellman appeared, and he was a “minus” player in only one appearance. He did not get much in the way of ice time (9:22 per game), but he played his role well. One can expect that Wellman will play a similar role this season, keeping sharp playing with the Hershey Bears until circumstance calls him.

Projection: 14 games, 1-2-3, even

*****

Chris Brown came late to the party last season, obtained from the Phoenix (now Arizona) Coyotes as part of the deal that sent disgruntled forward Martin Erat to the desert. Brown was a second round draft pick of the Coyotes in 2009 after spending four years in the U.S. National Team Development Program. Then, to complete his amateur resume, he spent three years at the University of Michigan. He was prepared enough to play 68 games with the Portland Pirates in 2012-2013 and recorded 29 goals, almost as many as he recorded in 125 games with the Wolverines over those three college seasons (34).

In Brown’s case, the issue is finding out just what it is the Caps have. Do they have a a guy they can call upon when needed by the parent club, a dependable fourth-liner who will stick with the club from the get-go (he is still with the team as we write this), or is that 29-goal season in Portland a hint of something more. Brown is going to get his opportunities. Perhaps not to crack the Opening Night starting lineup (they again, he might, with Jay Beagle and Tom Wilson still injured), but if he is on the roster to start the season, he would seem likely to be called upon before the Caps dip into the roster at Hershey for replacements. Brown is still young enough (23) to use his opportunities to show the club more of his game and expand his skill set.

Projection: 11 games, 2-1-3, minus-2

*****

The Defensemen

Connor Carrick will be spending his Opening Night of the 2014-2015 season where, perhaps, he should have spent his 2013-2014 Opening Night, with the Hershey Bears in the AHL. That is no knock on Carrick. Only eight 19-year old defensemen dressed for NHL games last season, and Carrick was fifth among them in games played (34), behind Olli Maatta, Seth Jones, Morgan Rielly, and Jacob Trouba. Not bad for a fifth round pick (137th overall) in the 2012 entry draft.

The immediate problem Carrick faces (as do the other defensemen we will discuss) is one of numbers. With the acquisitions of Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik, there is much less room for a prospect to work his way onto the parent roster. If the Caps carry only seven defensemen, one of two vets (John Erskine or Jack Hillen) are facing a squeeze, making it even more difficult for prospects like Carrick to distinguish themselves. However, the Caps did dress 14 defensemen in 2013-2014. There might not be a lot of opportunities to string together games, but is seems safe to say that there will be call-ups from time to time. Carrick’s opportunity, such as it is, is to pile up minutes in Hershey and proceed on the developmental path he seemed to be embarking on last season before he was thrust into a starting role. That will be the best preparation he can have for the unexpected instances when he has to make the trip to Washington.

Projection: 7 games, 0-1-1, minus-1

*****

Steve Oleksy is a nails and vinegar sort of defenseman whose relatively modest skills are made up for with a certain enthusiasm for playing the game. The odd part about his two seasons in the Capitals organization is the number of games he has played. Only four Capital defenseman have played in more games with the big club over the past two seasons than Oleksy (61): Karl Alzner (130), John Carlson (130), Mike Green (105), and John Erskine (67). That might speak to a certain level of turnover with the Caps, but Oleksy has spent a considerable amount of time battling with the big boys. And, his production cannot be sneered at, either. Over those two seasons, only Alzner (23), Carlson (59), and Green (64) have more points among defensemen than the 19 that Oleksy recorded. Oleksy’s opportunity here is to be an “instant” defenseman, one who has the experience not to require much by way of acclimating himself to the speed and pace of the NHL game. He’s seen this before.

Projection: 8 games, 1-2-3, plus-1

*****

Nate Schmidt is one those intriguing guys whose upside one wonders about. If you grow up in Minnesota, attend the University of Minnesota and play for three seasons, the last of which he was named an all-conference defenseman in the WCHA, chances are you’ve had as good an upbringing in the sport as you can get south of Canada. Then, after signing as a free agent with the Capitals, he appeared in 29 games in the 2013-2014 season. While his 2-4-6, plus-4 line might seem a bit modest, there are really two parts to it. There was the 0-0-0, minus-3 scoring line he recorded in his first eight games, and there is the 2-4-6, plus-7 he had in his last 21 games, more than respectable for a rookie and a demonstration of his improvement over the course of the season.

Schmidt benefits from the fact that he is a waiver-exempt player. That makes him a quick-response alternative for the Caps as circumstances dictate, and those 29 games of NHL experience over which he demonstrated he was not out of place makes him poised to be given opportunities over the course of the season.

Projection: 2 games, 0-0-0, even

*****

Patrick Wey is another of these rapid-response players who has strong development pedigree. Two years in the USHL (Waterloo) followed by four seasons at Boston College under Jerry York, perhaps the best hockey coach in NCAA history. Twice a member of NCAA championship teams (2010, 2012), he moved up through the Caps system in the ECHL and AHL to appear in nine games with the big club last season.

His brief stint was another “two-parter,” and not necessarily for the better on its surface (0-3-3, plus-4 in his first four games, 0-0-0, minus-4 in his last five contests), but if anything Wey withstood a trial by fire. Five of the last six games he played were against Los Angeles (twice), Anaheim, San Jose, and Boston. Quite an indoctrination for the rookie. Wey, who has only 45 games of pro experience to date (including the nine with the Caps), will benefit from a full year in Hershey. However, numbers suggest that the possibility remains that he will get the occasional call-up. The opportunities presented to him, rare though they might be, can be taken advantage of with his strong development history.

Projection: 2 games, 0-0-0, even

*****

The Goaltender

Philipp Grubauer is another of what is now a respectable number of prospect goaltenders having come through the Capitals system. Starting with the 2006 draft that number includes: Semyon Varlamov (2006), Michal Neuvirth (2006), Braden Holtby (2008), and Grubauer (2010). Since he was drafted in 2010, Grubauer has climbed steadily up the development ladder: a season in Canadian juniors, a season in the ECHL, and a season split among the ECHL, AHL, and two games with the Caps in 2012-2013. Last season he got a longer look – 17 games. While his win-loss record was modest (and somewhat odd: 6-5-5), his 2.38 goals against average and .925 save percentage suggested that talent was not the issue as much as getting more experience. His brief stay also had two distinct stages last season, his first 10 games in which he was good and generally consistently so (5-2-2, one no-decision, 2.02, .938), and his nine-game finishing stretch in which he faded and was pulled three times (1-3-3, 3.02, .901).

It might be said (ok, we said it)  that Grubauer is the de facto number two goaltender, the one who would jump into the number one spot, or get considerable playing time there, should circumstances dictate (which might be more true in the later stages of the season than in the fall). If he is “a heartbeat away,” in the figurative sense, the opportunity for him in Hershey is to play the number one role consistently and dependably. One never knows when one might be called upon to play that role on a bigger stage.

Projection:  8 games, 3-2-2, 2.49, .917

*****

In the end…

The simple arithmetic of there being roster spots for 21 skaters and two goaltenders, while generally teams might dress 30 skaters (29.5 on average last season, league-wide) and three or more goalies (3.2 last season, league-wide), it is a certainty that there will be opportunities for players we do not see on the roster at the moment to make an impact. We identified only a few here. None are likely to make a large impact, but they are a necessity – to buy time for injuries to heal, to let under-performing players get a chance to collect themselves and find their game, to give hard workers and good soldiers a chance on the bigger stage when their play down on the farm merits it. The opportunities will present themselves. They need to be ready.

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Goaltenders: Justin Peters

Justin Peters

“Things alter for the worse spontaneously, if they be not altered for the better designedly.”

-- Francis Bacon

In 2004, Justin Peters was taken 38th overall by the Carolina Hurricanes in the NHL entry draft, a quite respectable position from which a goaltender might be drafted. He dutifully went about moving up the development chain: two more seasons in Canadian junior hockey, two years splitting time between the AHL and ECHL, four more seasons splitting time between the AHL and the parent club in Carolina, and finally a full season in 2013-2014 as a backup goalie with the Hurricanes.

But here is the thing. Last season Cam Ward missed 23 games to injury. Anton Khudobin missed 32 games to injury. It was only when those injury spells overlapped early in the season when Peters got a long look in goal by the Hurricanes. Twenty of his 21 appearances came by December 27th; he did not appear in a game after January 19th. And before that he was waived in September with the intent of reassigning him to the AHL.

Peters has never appeared in more games in a season than the 21 in which he appeared last year. He has a total of 68 appearances over five seasons. In signing with the Capitals for two seasons last July as an unrestricted free agent, Peters gets a change of scenery, but not necessarily a change in his role. The official title might say “backup goaltender,” but he might more accurately be the emergency goaltender if one believes that should circumstances require, the number two goalie would have to bear a sustained load in Washington. And truth be told, that number two goaltender might very well be Philipp Grubauer in Hershey, not Peters.

Fearless’ Take…

A little harsh there, weren’t you, cousin? He actually did very well after a poor start last season. Peters lost his first five decisions, recording a 3.49 goals-against average and a .890 save percentage. However, in his last 16 appearances he was 7-2-4, 2.19, .928 with one shutout.  Those are not numbers to sneer at.

Cheerless’ Take…

Here’s a little comparison. There is this one team he’s had good success against in his career, 4-3-0, 1.67 goals-against average, .938 save percentage, two shutouts. Trouble is, that team is the one he plays for now, the Caps. Against the rest of the league he is 18-28-8, 3.21, .900, and one shutout. And, there is this. He has a career save percentage under .900 against 11 teams (he’s faced 26 clubs). Eight of those teams play in the Eastern Conference; four of them – the Rangers, Flyers, Penguins, and Blue Jackets – are in the Metropolitan Division.

The Big Question… Can Justin Peters generate enough confidence in his play to leave Grubauer in Hershey?

Well, that’s just it, isn’t it? Peters was waived at the end of training camp last season for the express purpose of sending him back down to the AHL. The Hurricanes, a team of modest success and with two goaltenders who missed large blocks of games to injury, did not appear to have that confidence in Peters over a longer haul to make him the one true backup. The difficulty is his consistency. This will always be a problem for a goalie that gets infrequent and often unplanned appearances. However, Peters’ year-to-year inconsistency is disturbing. His top-end numbers do not show steady or even much in the way of trending improvement. His games played notwithstanding (they vary on a year-to-year basis), his save percentages over five seasons are, in order: .905, .875, .931, .891, .919. It is not necessarily the stuff to instill confidence. But there is this. He played in 1,225 minutes last season, by far the most he has logged in any of his five seasons. A .919 save percentage over that many minutes is something on which to build.

In the end…

Justin Peters might have been signed, in part, because there would be no doubt about his role. The Caps have a near NHL-ready goaltender in Hershey in Philipp Grubauer (19 career games, 6-6-5, 2.48, .924) who will benefit from another year in Hershey. In the event circumstances dictate, Grubauer can be called up at short notice to assume the number one netminding duties, relegating Peters to more of an “emergency goaltender,” much like the third roster quarterback in professional football. Not that Peters is a deficient performer at the position. His track record to date suggests that he lacks a certain consistency in performance, but last year indicated some promise.

He will get his opportunities, perhaps as many as he had last season to show if his late season performance was not a fluke, but a trend. It would seem, though, that in the preferred state of things those appearances would be infrequent and not involve many consecutive games. Time will tell if he merely changed jerseys, not roles, and if in doing so he bettered his prospects.  For Peters, it will be a matter of seizing opportunities when presented.

Projection: 21 games, 9-7-2, 2.73, .909

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America