The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 12: Flames at Capitals, November 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their mini-two-game home stand on Tuesday night when the Calgary Flames come to town in the second and last game of the season series between the clubs.  The Caps are trying to right themselves after heading into a ditch since their 3-1 win in Calgary on October 25th.  In four games since then the Caps have not scored consistently enough (12 goals, but five of them coming in a 6-5 loss to Arizona on Sunday), have given up far too many goals (18 in those four games), have had a poor time of it killing penalties (12-for-17; 70.6 percent), and have not been able to make up for that shortcoming despite a pretty good power play (4-for-13; 30.8 percent).

On the other hand, the Flames come into this game with points in three contests since dropping their game in Calgary to the Caps (2-0-1).  After losing in a Gimmick to Montreal at home on October 28th, 2-1, the Flames knocked off Nashville, 4-3, then beat the Canadiens in a rematch, 6-2, at Bell Centre.

One of the keys for Calgary has been minimizing shorthanded situations faced.  After facing 32 such situations in their first ten games, the Flames have found themselves shorthanded only five times over their last three contests, only once in each of the last two games.  That they are 4-for-5 on the penalty kill over those games is something that has contributed to their good fortune of late.

Calgary is not a team that does it, at least so far this season, with forward-dominated scoring.  Three of the top four point-getters are defensemen, only Jiri Hudler (3-7-10) representing forwards in that top-four group.  Hudler is ranked 36^th among league forwards in points.  What is worse for the Flames, at least for this game, is that their leading goal-scorer among forwards is Mason Raymond (5).  He is tied for 21^st among NHL forwards in goals.  The unfortunate part for the Flames is that Raymond is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers through Sunday’s games:

1.  Calgary is giving up 0.75 fewer goals per game through 13 games (2.15; 9th in the league) than they did last season (2.90; 24th).  It certainly doesn’t hurt that the big change is in goal.  Last season Karri Ramo took the lion’s share of appearances and did a credible job behind a poor team (.911 save percentage on a team whose other three goalies had a combined save percentage of .895).  This season Ramo is continuing that level of work, if less frequently (.914 save percentage in five appearances).  Meanwhile, Jonas Hiller, signed to a two-year/$9.0 million contract as a free agent last July, has a .938 save percentage  in eight appearances and a miniscule 1.84 goals against average.

2.  Calgary has also amped up its 5-on-5 play.  Last year the Flames 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio was 0.80 28th in the league).  After 13 games this season it is 1.41 (6th).  Only three of 16 Flames players appearing in at least ten games so far is a “minus” player (Ladislave Smid, Brandon Bollig, and Lance Bouma).

3.  Calgary is not doing it with shot differential.  Their 27.1 shots per game ranks 28th in the league, while their 29.4 shots allowed per game ranks 15th.  Their shot differential of minus-2.3 shots per game ranks 21st in the league.

4.  As of Sunday’s games the league has four defensemen with ten or more points.  The Flames have two of them – T.J. Brodie (4-8-12) and Mark Giordano (3-8-11).  The Flames have five power play goals and 13 points from defensemen on the power play (by way of comparison, the numbers are two goals and seven points for Caps defensemen).

5. Calgary is doing it with mirrors.  Their possession numbers are awful – Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 43.33 (28^th in the league), Fen-Close for at 5-on-5 of 46.17 (26^th; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  In the last six games, over which the Caps are 1-5-0, the Caps goaltenders have a combined cumulative save percentage of .864).  It has been an equal opportunity effort.  Justin Peters has a .857 save percentage in two appearances, while Braden Holtby has a .868 save percentage in four appearances.  Holtby has had a disturbing tendency to drift as games go on.  He has a .887 first period save percentage, but included in that was an awful three goals on seven shots effort against San Jose.  Take that out, and he has a .938 first period save percentage.  After that it is .912 in the second period, .900 in the third.  More evidence that low shot volumes (24.9 per 60 minutes) are a problem for him?

2.  When Nicklas Backstrom recorded three assists in the 6-5 loss to Arizona on Sunday, it was the 27th time he recorded three or more assists in a game.  That is the most in the league since he arrived (Sidney Crosby: 26).

3.  Alex Ovechkin’s four-point effort against the Coyotes on Sunday was the 18th time he recorded four or more points in a game.  Only Crosby (25), Joe Thornton (20), and Evgeni Malkin (19) have done it more (Backstrom, by the way, is tied for seventh on that list with 14 instances).

4.  The Caps have outshot opponents nine times in 11 games so far.  No team in the Eastern Conference has outshot their opponent as many times (Minnesota and Chicago have done it ten time in the West).  The Caps also have the sixth worst winning percentage in the league when doing so (.333; 3-4-2).

5.  The Caps, despite that train wreck against Arizona, are still sixth in the league in Corsi-for percentage overall (53.20) and seventh in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (53.45).   Their Fen-Close for percentage is fourth (54.55; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Really?  And 4-5-2?  Didn’t we ask this question last game, too?

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Johnny Gaudreau

“Johnny Hockey” took a little while to get used to the NHL game, but he seems to be settling in just fine.  A fourth-round draft pick in 2011 out of Boston College, Gaudreau went without a point in his first five games, then was a healthy scratch against the Columbus Blue Jackets.  In seven games since that slow start, he is 2-6-8 with three multi-point games.  Both of his goals were game-winners, one against Winnipeg in a 4-1 win on October 19th, and one against Nashville in a 4-3 win on Hallowe’en.  Gaudreau, who is listed (perhaps generously) at 5’9”, 150 pounds, has seen his ice time jump from the low double digits in his first six games to 15 or more minutes in each of his last six contests.  As of Sunday he was still waiting on being told by the club to find a permanent residence instead of the hotel in which he is living in Calgary. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=737022 He’s making it hard to the team to do anything but tell him to check the apartment listings.  He was held without a point in 17 minutes of ice time in the Caps’ 3-1 win in Calgary on October 25th.

Washington: Matt Niskanen

Last Season in Pittsburgh, defenseman Matt Niskanen recorded 162 shots in 81 games (2.0 per game) and finished the season with a career high 10 goals and 46 points.  It earned him a big pay check in free agency, courtesy of the Washington Capitals.  So far, Niskanen has 11 shots in 11 games (1.0) and is looking for his first goal for the Caps.  His role is not as diverse as that which he played in Pittsburgh, especially when Kris Letang was sidelined with a stroke.  However, his offensive play has gone into a spin lately – no shots on goal in three of his last four games, no points, and minus-5.  He has been on ice for 11 even strength goals, tied for most on the team with partner Karl Alzner.  Maybe we’re still in the eHarmony phase of the relationship, but the Caps are going to have to get better play from Niskanen in all three zones to shake the funk in which they find themselves.  He is 3-4-7, plus-3, in 19 career games against Calgary.

In the end…

The Caps’ win at Calgary ten days ago is their only win in their last six contests.  It was not an especially dominating one as the Caps won, 3-1, although they did dominate the shot meter, 30-21, and held the Flames without an even strength goal.  Since that game the Flames have dug themselves out of a hole, going 2-0-1 to lift themselves into a tie for second in standings points in the Pacific Division with Vancouver and San Jose.

At the moment, there are teams going in different directions.  Calgary is winning with offense (3.67 goals per game in their last three games since losing to the Caps) and defense (2.00 goals per game), while the Caps try to find both (outscored 18-12 in their last four games, all losses, since beating Calgary).  So of course, we think the curse will be reversed.

Capitals 4 – Flames 2

A NO-point night -- Game 11: Coyotes 6 - Capitals 5

For 16 minutes last night, the Washington Capitals looked like a team to be reckoned with.  For the last 44 minutes, they looked like a wreck as the Arizona Coyotes pasted the Caps for five straight goals after the Caps took a 3-1 lead in those first 16 minutes.  The Caps scored a couple of window dressing goals late to make the 6-5 final more respectable, if not easier to swallow.

For a detailed look at the game, take a look at the quick-recap and more lengthy recap we penned over at Japers’ Rink.

Other stuff…

-- Arizona came into this game not having won a game on the road and suffering the ignominy of being shut out by the Carolina Hurricanes for the Hurricanes first win of the season the previous night.  Well, now the Coyotes have one road win.

-- The Caps had been outscored, 8-0, in the third period over their last four games before they scored those two goals in the last 1:53 of the game.

-- Alex Ovechkin, with four points on the evening, tied Peter Bondra for the franchise record in points (825).  Bondra set his record with a goal in a 4-0 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on February 15, 2004, in what was Bondra’s penultimate game with the Caps.  Oddly enough, Bondra’s last game with the Caps was against the Ottawa Senators, to which he would be traded the following day.

-- Caps fans can take small solace (yeah, very small) in Martin Erat going minus-2, pointless, and with a penalty for his evening. 

-- Ovechkin gets the coupon for the all-you-can-eat buffet… a goal, three assists, four points, seven shots on goal, 14 shot attempts, five hits, a takeaway.  Oh, yeah, two minor penalties, one of which led to the goal Shane Doan goal that tied the game and sucked what was left of the momentum out of the Caps’ end of the ice.  Sure, it was an iffy penalty, but like the sign says, “players are responsible for their sticks.”

-- In case you haven’t noticed, for all the needles at Brooks Orpik since the season started, the other big-money free agent defenseman doesn’t yet have a goal (he is averaging precisely half the shots on goal he averaged per game last season) and doesn’t have a point in his last four games.

-- Speaking of Matt Niskanen, he was one of only three Caps without a shot on goal (Karl Alzner and Andre Burakovsky were the others).

-- It was the type as well as the frequency of penalties that was annoying (ok, the refs were annoying, too)… holding, interference, hooking, hi-sticking, hi-sticking.  Stick and impedance fouls strike us as signs of laziness. 

-- Mike Green had his first “minus” game of the season.  He was a minus-1 after going a cumulative plus-8 in his first nine games, five of them in plus terrirtory.

-- Tom Wilson had a goal, an assist, and two roughing minors…sort of a “Gordie Howe Hat-Trick Lite.”  Be strong and get well, Mr. Hockey.

In the end...

It was a grisly effort by the Caps against a team that, frankly, stinks.  Four straight losses, five in six games, post-game closed-door players meeting, somber barely-able-to-contain-his-anger-coach at the press conference, players rolling out all the “contrite” and “thoughtful” quotes after the game.  Hey Caps fans, look familiar?

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 4

The Washington Capitals took an oh-fer in Week 4.  Losers of all three games for the week, the Caps are now in 12^th place in the Eastern Conference, 14^th in regulation and overtime wins.  It left the Caps right where they were after ten games last season – 10 points after 10 games.

Record: 0-3-0

This was the first three-loss week for the Caps since Week 17 last season when they went 1-3-0.  It is their first winless week in one with more than two games since Week 16 last season.  It was the first time the Caps lost three straight games in regulation time since they lost five straight in Games 47-51 last season.  After a 3-0-2 start in their first five games, after which they found themselves in second place in the Metropolitan Division and third in the Eastern Conference, they have slipped three spots in the division and nine places in the conference.

Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.90/game; rank: 11^th)

Not a good week for the offense.  Not only did the Caps shoot poorly (seven goals on 87 shots; 8.0 percent), they did not get much from the players who have to give them much.  Alex Ovechkin had one assist, breaking a personal worst five game streak without a point.  He was 0-for-15 shooting.  Nicklas Backstrom had one assist. Mike Green had two assists, but he did not have a goal.  Ditto John Carlson.  If anything, the Caps got their secondary scoring.  Marcus Johansson had two goals and an assist to lead the Caps in scoring for the week.  Troy Brouwer had a pair of goals. Evgeny Kuznetsov got his first of the year.  Eric Fehr had a pretty goal against Tampa Bay following up his own shot.  Even Liam O’Brien had his first NHL goal.

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 2.50/game; rank: T-13^th)

The Caps finally allowed a team to reach the 30-shot mark in a game, giving up 34 shots to the Vancouver Canucks in the Caps’ 4-2 loss last Sunday.  They followed that up by getting right back with the program, allowing a total of 50 shots in the last two games of the week in losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay.  The 5-on-5 play was, to be charitable, interesting.  Oddly enough, the Caps won the possession wars for the week with a 53.02 Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5, a 53.67 percent Fenwick-for (winning handily in both against Detroit and Tampa Bay, losing closely against Vancouver).  Unfortunately, they out-performed the shots-for (50.37 percent) and goals for (35.7 percent).  If there is an emerging bright spot here, it is the play of the Mike Green-Nate Schmidt pair on defense.  As a pair, they have been on ice for just one of the last 17 goals scored against the Caps, that coming against Detroit last Wednesday (Green was on for the empty netter scored by Vancouver in the 4-2 loss to the Canucks last Sunday).

Goaltending: 3.74 GAA / .867 SV (season: 2.36 GAA / .904 SV / 1 SO)

Justin Peters allowed three goals on 33 shots in almost 59 minutes against the Vancouver Canucks in the 4-2 loss last Sunday.  That was the high point of the week as far as goaltending was concerned.  Braden Holtby was in net for the last two games of the week, and it did not go well. Holtby allowed eight goals on 50 shots (.840 save percentage) in taking the loss in both games.  What was worse was his even strength save percentage-- .811.  He faced only 15 even strength shots against Detroit (12 saves) and 22 even strength shots against Tampa Bay (18 saves).  Even if not all the goals are attributable to poor play on his part (especially against Tampa Bay), Holtby, who in the past thrived on high workload volumes, is going to have to find a way to find and maintain his focus as the Caps transition themselves into a team that denies shot attempts.

Power Play: 2-10/20.0 percent (season: 25.7 percent; rank: 3^rd)

There was a glass half-full/half-empty aspect to the power play in Week 4.  On the plus side, the Caps had a fairly efficient week – two goals on 17 shots (11.8 percent shooting) in 13:08 of power play ice time. On the other hand, getting an 0-for-6 in shooting (and only one shot on goal in each of the last two games of the week) was probably not in the plan for Alex Ovechkin.  Last year’s power play goal-scoring leader has not had a power play goal since Game 3 against San Jose on October 14^th.  He has 16 power play shots on goal for the season, not much different on a per game basis than last season (1.60 per game compared to 1.69 last season); it is just his shooting is off (6.25 percent compared to 9.84 percent last season).

Penalty Killing: 3-11/72.7 percent (season: 80.6 percent; rank: 17^th)

When the Caps denied the Tampa Bay Lightning a goal on two power play opportunities on Saturday, it broke a five game streak in which the Caps allowed at least one power play goal.  It was not an especially efficient week.  The Caps allowed 15 shots on goal in 12:39 of power play ice time.  It was not all that effective, either.  Washington allowed three goals on nine shots in the first two games of the week before shackling the Lightning in the last game of the week.  This was a place where Holtby stood out in a good way in goal.  He stopped 10 of 11 power play shots, lifting him into 13^th place in shorthanded save percentage among 41 goalies playing in at least four games.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 5-9 / minus-4 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio:1.11; rank: T-13^th)

It was not a good week for the Caps in this regard.  They were lit up in shots on goal by Vancouver to start the week (outshot at even strength, 30-19), but they came on at the end of the week (49-37 to the good).  Opponents just feasted on the Caps in terms of efficiency, though, shooting to a 13.4 percent mark at even strength for the week, while the Caps were only at 7.4 percent.  How odd was it?  Marcus Johansson scored as many even strength goals in Week 4 as he did in all of last season (2).

Faceoffs:  77-for-155 / 49.6 percent (season: 49.3 percent; rank: 19^th)

The Caps were one draw under 50 percent for the week, but they did manage a good week in the defensive end (57.5 percent).  What set the week apart was the incidences more than the percentages by zone.  The Caps took 57 draws in the offensive zone (47.4 percent), only 40 percent (57.5 percent).  It was the defensive zone draw that got away that proved critical in the Caps’ loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday.  Steven Stamkos won a draw cleanly from Nicklas Backstrom, and Jason Garrison coverted into the game-winning goal in the Caps’ 4-3 loss to the Lightning.  That draw put Backstrom one under for the week in the defensive end, while he was above 50 percent in other two zones in taking 53 draws (winning 28), more than twice as many as any other Capital.  The second highest number of draws (24) was taken by Andre Burakovsky, who had a good week (58.3 percent).

Goals by Period:

No secret what the problem was here.  After holding opponents even over the first two periods, the Caps had their lunch eaten in front of them to the tune of a 5-0 margin.  They allowed the game winning goals in the losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay in the third period, and with having allowed a third period empty net goal against Vancouver, the Caps allowed third period goals in each of the three games for the week.

In the end…

Playing well in terms of possession only goes so far.  When the team gets no standings points for the week when winning the possession wars (a theme spilling over from Week 3), it is frustrating.  The best that can be said is that if the Caps continue to “play” as they have, the wins will come.  They have to get better than a .750 save percentage from Braden Holtby in the third period of games, though.  And, they have to get their primary scoring to rise to the level of their secondary scoring.  You know, the usual things a team needs in its performance numbers to win.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Marcus Johansson (2-1-3, minus-3, four shots on goal, Corsi minus-3)
• Second Star: Andre Burakovsky (0-2-2, minus-1, 58.3 percent on draws)
• Third Star: Justin Peters (0-1-0, 30 saves on 33 shots, 28-for-30 at even strength)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 11: Coyotes at Capitals, November 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals get right back on the horse, so to speak, after their 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night when they return to Verizon Center to host the Arizona Coyotes on Sunday night.

The Capitals are reeling after losing their third straight game last night, their fourth loss in their last five contests.  The skid wipes out their 3-0-2 start, leaving them with a .500 record entering this contest (4-4-2).  The Caps have struggled scoring goals of late, and this has been a problem in two unexpected places.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have one goal between them over their last six games.  Then there is the defense.  Mike Green has three goals and is among the league leaders in scoring among defensemen.  The rest of the defense has a total of one goal (John Carlson).

If the Caps are to snap out of their scoring funk, the Coyotes would be the team against which they could do it.  Now representing the entire state of Arizona instead of just the city of Phoenix, the Coyotes have struggled at both ends of the ice.  They have not scored more than three goals in a game in their last seven contests, since beating Edmonton, 7-4, in Game 3 of the season back on October 15^th.  Their scoring defense has been wildly inconsistent, allowing two or fewer goals four times but allowing six of more goals three times in ten games.

Arizona is a team that has struggled to put together any consistent offense.  The exception is Mikkel Boedker, who has five of the Coyotes’ 22 total goals.  But even here, there are problems.  Boedker recorded goals in each of his first three games this season, topping off his hot start with a hat trick in the 7-4 win over Edmonton on October 15^th.  He does not have a point since then.  He has only four shots on goal in his last three contests.  In five career games against Washington, Boedker is 1-0-1, minus-1.

On defense, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is in something of a slump, at least insofar as it applies to defensemen.  He has been on ice for 21 of the 36 goals allowed by the Coyotes so far this season.  Only Columbus’ Jack Johnson has been on ice for more goals among defensemen (24 in 11 games).  His minus-11 is worst among 661 skaters in the league.  In only three games this season has OEL not been on ice for a goal scored against the Coyotes.  Twice he has been on ice for at least four goals against, including being torched for six goals against in the Coyotes’ 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay last Tuesday.

Then there is the goaltending.  Arizona isn’t getting it, at least enough to make the Coyotes competitive.  Both Mike Smith (.873) and Devan Dubnyk (.889) are under .900 for a save percentage.  Smith has been nothing short of ghastly at even strength.  In eight games his even strength save percentage is .877.  That ranks 40^th of 41 goaltenders having appeared in four or more games.  Smith took the loss in the Coyotes’ 3-0 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night (the Hurricanes’ first win of the season), so it would seem likely that the Caps will see Dubnyk in goal.  He has one career appearance against the Caps, a loss in which he allowed four goals on 22 shots in a 4-1 decision on October 24, 2013 when he was tending goal for the Edmonton Oilers.

Here is how the numbers compare for the two clubs through last night’s games:

1.  Arizona has scored only 12 5-on-5 goals so far this season, 28^th in the league.  They have gone six straight periods without an even strength goal.

2.  The Coyotes started the season very well on the penalty kill, going a perfect 10-for-10 in their first three games.  However, starting with an 0-for-4 performance on the penalty kill in their 6-1 loss to St. Louis on October 18^th, Arizona is 15-for-22 (68.2 percent).  If there is a silver lining, it is that the Coyotes have faced the third fewest number of shorthanded situations this season (32).

3.  If Arizona is going to win, it would seem likely that power play scoring will be involved.  The Coyotes are 5-for-16 with the man advantage in their three wins (31.3 percent) with at least one power play goal in each win, 4-for-21 otherwise (19.0 percent).  

4.  We made a point that Oliver Ekman-Larsson was having his struggles with plus-minus.  Well, there is also Connor Murphy.  He is only 21 and in his first full season with the club, but the 2011 20^th overall draft pick is minus-8 in roughly half the ice time OEL has had (13:38 a game versus 25:32 for Ekman-Larsson).

5.  Like the Caps, the Coyotes are playing better than their record.  Not a lot, but some.  Arizona ranks 19^th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.47 percent) and 15^th in Fenwick-for percentage (50.45 percent).  

1.  Last season the Caps were kings of the long change, finishing fourth in goals scored in the second period of games.  They are picking up where they left off, tied for fifth in second period scores so far.

2.  The Caps are one of eight teams that have not yet allowed ten goals (cumulative) in any period – eight in the first, nine in the second, and eight in the third periods of games.

3.  The Caps are one of six teams that have yet to sustain a loss by three or more goals.  They have won two games by those margins.

4.  The Caps had better score first.  They are one of only three teams that are winless when allowing the first goal (0-3-1).  Carolina and Buffalo are the others.

5.  The Caps have been over 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in seven of the ten games they have played thus far.  Five times they have been over 55 percent and twice over 60 percent.  They also happen to be 2-1-0 in the three games they were below 50 percent and had a cumulative 9-4 margin in goals at 5-on-5.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Arizona: Martin Erat

You remember Marty, right?  He of the two goals in 66 regular season and playoff games with the Caps.  He has five in 26 games with the Coyotes since being traded west last March.  He is second on the club in goals (3), but after a 2-2-4 start in his first four games, he is 1-0-1 in his last five.  He is one of five Coyotes forwards who have been on ice for at least ten goals against, in his case all of them at even strength, most among Coyote forwards.  In 11 career games against the Caps he is 1-7-8, even.

Washington: John Carlson

After setting a career high with 10 goals last season and taking over some of the duties held by Mike Green, John Carlson seemed poised to take the next step up this season.  He has one goal in his first ten games.  He has not lacked for shooting, four times recording at least four shots in a game (he leads Caps defensemen with 26 shots on goal).  His shooting percentage (3.8) is about a third lower than his career shooting average going into this season (5.3).  It suggests that a correction might be in order, especially since his is one of the lower lights in this statistic on a club that ranks sixth overall in shooting percentage (9.76).  Carlson is 2-1-3, plus-3 in four career games against the Coyotes.

In the end…

OK, enough of the playing well and losing nonsense.  The Coyotes are a team the Caps should beat soundly.  They stink at 5-on-5, they are struggling on the penalty kill of late, they can’t seem to score against air.  These are things that should play right into the Caps’ hands, especially since the Coyotes are coming into DC late after a loss in Carolina on Saturday night.  The Caps have fallen victim to the scoring in bunches problem lately – three goals in 12:28 in the loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday, three goals in 15 minutes of the third period against Detroit on Wednesday, three goals in 1:47 against Vancouver last Sunday.  Avoid that, and this one should not be close.

Capitals 5 – Coyotes 2

A NO-point night -- Game 10: Lightning 4 - Capitals 3

The Washington Capitals out-shot the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night, 38-28 (32-22 at 5-on-5).  They out-attempted them, 57-46 (46-39 at 5-on-5).  They out-Fenwicked them, 48-38 (40-30 at 5-on-5). 

They lost, 4-3.

This whole winning the possession wars and losing the games can get old really quick.  For the eighth time in ten games the Caps outshot their opponent, and they are just 3-3-2 in those games as the Caps fell to 4-4-2 for the season.

The Caps fell behind the eight-ball early in this one as Ryan Callahan redirected a Brian Boyle shot to give Tampa Bay the game’s first goal at the 6:06 mark.  Marcus Johansson tied it just before the 13-minute mark of the period on a play that started when Alex Ovechkin chipped a loose puck past defenseman Jason Garrison at the Capitals’ blue line.  Ovechkin raced past Garrison, picked up the puck, and sped in on goalie Ben Bishop.  Eric Brewer stuck his stick out and tripped Ovechkin to the ice from behind, but did not do enough to prevent Ovechkin from getting a shot on goal as he was sliding on the ice.  Bishop made the save, but the puck came out to Bishop’s right and onto the stick of Johansson following the play.  Johansson snapped the puck in before Bishop could recover and before the net came off its pegs as Garrison and Ovechkin slid into it.

The Caps took their only lead of the night early in the second on a one-man effort by Eric Fehr.  The play started when Jason Chimera skated the puck over the Lightning blue line along the right wing wall, then sent the puck deep around the boards.  The puck came out the other side where Fehr stopped it along the left wing boards.  He backhanded it down the wall to Chimera, who fed the puck back to Fehr as he cut to the net.  Fehr’s first shot went wide to Bishop’s right, but the puck caromed off the end wall and back out in front to Fehr on the other side of Bishop.  From a severe angle, made more so by Fehr being a right-handed shot, Fehr snapped the puck behind Bishop, off the far post, and in to make it 2-1.

The Caps could not hold the lead, though, as the Lightning put together a pair of goals less than three minutes apart to take a 3-2 lead mid-way through the period.  The Caps tied it back up in the last minute on a power play.  The Caps tried to work the puck to Troy Brouwer in the middle, Nicklas Backstrom threading a pass from the right wing wall.  That attempt was foiled, but the Lightning managed only to clear the puck to the blue line where Mike Green kept it in.  Green slid the puck down to Backstrom, who relayed it to Marcus Johansson at the goal line extended to Ben Bishop’s left.  Johansson saucered a pass to Brouwer in the slot, and he made good on this attempt, firing the puck under Bishop’s blocker to tie the game at three apiece with 59 seconds left in the second period.

Tampa Bay broke the tie one last time on their first shot of the third period, a goal by Jason Garrison off a clean faceoff win by Steven Stamkos 2:27 into the period.  The red lights were dark after that as Bishop turned away all 12 shots he faced from the Caps to secure the 4-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- The long national nightmare is over.  Alex Ovechkin scored a point, assisting on Marcus Johansson’s goal.  It was not the sort of assist that makes highlight films, a pass onto a teammate’s tape, but rather Ovechkin bulling his way through a trip, falling to the ice, getting off a shot while sliding on the ice, and watching his teammate pound the rebound into the back of the net just before he found himself there as well.

-- Eric Fehr sat out last Wednesday against Detroit, and it had an effect, at least for one game.  Six shots on goal, two other attempts, a goal, a hit, and a blocked shot.  The six shots on goal were the most he had in a game in almost four years, putting seven on net in a 3-2 Caps win over the Ottawa Senators on December 19, 2010.  You might remember that game as the one that broke an eight-game losing streak by the Caps so lovingly captured on video by the HBO folks in their series on the run-up to the 2011 Winter Classic.

-- The Caps flirted with disaster on one play and had it come out good enough.  Washington was caught by the Lightning on a 2-on-1 break with only Mike Green back.  Green, whose technique on defending such situations is, shall we say, unique at times, went to his knees, slid backward on his stomach, turned over, and tried to sweep the puck off Tyler Johnson’s stick.  He missed, which left an open passing lane to the other side of the slot to Nikita Kucherov.  The pass came and… what’s that?  Alex Ovechkin… backchecking?  His technique seemed to be taken from the Mike Green Manual, starting with a dive from the top of the faceoff circle.  His momentum carried him toward the goal line, and with his stick outstretched as far as possible, he deflected the pass out of harm’s way and to the end wall.

-- Not that the play was over.  The puck ended up on the stick of Ondrej Palat in front of Holtby.  Palat had two whacks at the puck, Holtby blocking the first with his left pad, then grabbing the puck out of the air on Palat’s second attempt. 

-- Speaking of Holtby, he seems to be having issues with the new-look, low shots-allowed Caps.  In seven appearances in which he played all 60 minutes (or more), he has yet to face 30 shots.  In fact, he is facing just 24.9 shots per 60 minutes.  Unfortunately, his save percentage is only .899 after this game, and it is .868 in his last four games over which he faced only 91 shots (23.3 per 60 minutes).

-- Mike Green and Nate Schmidt, stoppers.  Neither were on ice for a goal against the Lightning.  As a pair, they have been on ice for just one of the last 17 goals scored against the Caps, that coming against Detroit last Wednesday (Green was on for the empty netter scored by Vancouver in the 4-2 loss to the Canucks last Sunday).

-- Karl Alzner took it in the teeth as far as his underlying numbers are concerned.  He was a minus-8 Corsi at 5-on-5.  And before we get too caught up in Burra-fever, Andre Burakovsky was a team-worst minus-5 on the Fenwick meter.

-- Troy Brouwer gets the coupon for the all-you-can-eat buffet.  A goal, four shots, a shot blocked, a missed shot, three hits, two takeaways, and he won two of three faceoffs in 17:25 of ice time.

-- The Caps ended their streak of games in which they allowed power play goals at five games.  They faced only two shorthanded situations, which helped.  Odd stat – the Caps are 2-2-1 when facing three or fewer shorthanded situations, 2-2-1 when facing four or more.

-- At the other end, the Caps scored a power play goal in their second straight game and in their seventh game out of ten played so far.  They are 3-3-1 in games win which they scored a power play goal.

-- The Caps held Steven Stankos without a goal, the sixth straight game against the Caps he has failed to light the lamp.  The last goal he scored against the Caps was February 18, 2012 in a 2-1 Lightning win.

In the end…

All of a sudden the Caps can’t score.  Washington has gone six straight games without scoring more than three goals, since beating New Jersey, 6-2, in Game 4 back on October 16^th.  Since then they are 2-4-0 with a total of 13 goals scored, four of those on the power play.  It probably has not escaped anyone’s notice that the six-game streak coincides with Alex Ovechkin’s streak without a goal.  He is doing a lot of the little things right, but he isn’t being rewarded for it.  The same might be said of a number of Capitals.  Jason Chimera is without a goal in his last five games.  Andre Burakovsky is six games without a goal.  Nicklas Backstrrom has one goal in his last six contests.  The Caps have only one goal from a defenseman not named “Mike Green” (John Carlson has that one). 

One would like to say that this will pass, and the guys will get back into a groove.  Well, it would be nice if it happened sooner rather than later.  Playing the right way and having little to show for it has the look of a game in which the team applies early pressure but doesn’t score.  Often that comes back to haunt that team late.  Let’s hope we’re not invoking that analogy come March or April.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 10: Capitals at Lightning, November 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, the trick-or-treaters are gone, gorging themselves on sweet treats, and the calendar has flipped to a new month.  For hockey fans the sweet treat on Saturday night will be the Washington Capitals facing an old Southeast Division foe for the first time this season when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Caps come into this game going sideways after a strong start.  Since opening the season with a 3-0-2 record, they are 1-3-0 in their last four games.  The differences in the two blocks of games have been clear.  They outscored opponents by a 17-9 margin in their first five games; they were outscored by a 12-9 margin in their last four contests.  The power play was 5-for-20 (25.0 percent) in the first five games, 3-for-13 (23.1 percent) in the last four games.  OK, not much difference; you got me there.  The penalty kill was 18-for-20 (90.0 percent) in the first five games, 9-for-14 in the last four (64.3 percent).  Braden Holtby was 2-0-1 in goal over the first five games with a 1.85 goals against average, a .932 save percentage, and a shutout.  In his three appearances over the last four games he is 1-2-0, 2.69, .873.  Alex Ovechkin was 5-1-6, plus-1 over the first five games, 0-0-0, minus-2 over his last four.  The Caps are a team with a split personality over their first nine games.

The Lightning have their own consistency problems, but of an entirely different sort.  They can’t figure out who they are on a year-to-year basis.  In 2010-2011 they finished 46-25-11 with 103 points and a trip to the Eastern Conference finals.  The following year it was 38-36-8, 84 points, and out of the playoffs.  Then it was 18-26-4 in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season and out of the playoffs once more.  Last season they rebounded to a 46-27-9 record, 101 points, and a return to the playoffs despite losing forward Steven Stamkos for 45 games to a broken leg.

Stamkos is back, and so are the Lightning, at least in the early going.  Tampa Bay has been methodical in putting together a 7-3-1 record going into this game.  They have yet to string together more than two consecutive wins (although they would accomplish that feat with a win against the Caps), but they also have yet to lose consecutive games.

As for Stamkos, he was on a pace to score 68 goals last season when he broke his leg against the Boston Bruins in Game 17.  He still finished with 25 goals in 37 games (a 55-goal pace).  He has picked up this season almost where he left off in Game 17 last season, recording eight goals in his first 11 games (a 60-goal pace), including a hat trick in the Lightning’s last game, a 4-2 win over Philadelphia.

Stamkos is the only legitimate challenger to Alex Ovechkin as the league’s most dangerous goal scorer these days (and many think him as having surpassed Ovechkin).  Stamkos and Ovechkin do it in very different ways.  Ovechkin’s effectiveness is largely a product of relentlessness as the most prolific shooter of this generation, averaging 5.05 shots per game over his career (414 per 82 games).  On the other hand, Stamkos is ruthlessly efficient.  Now in his seventh season, he his worst season shooting percentage (12.7 percent in his rookie 2008-2009 season) is better than Ovechkin’s career average (12.3 percent).  Since that rookie season, Stamkos’ shooting percentage has not been lower than 16.5 percent in any season.  Against the Caps, Stamkos is 13-11-24 in 29 games, but he is without a goal against Washington in his last five games.

On defense the Lightning are having to fill the considerable void left after Victor Hedman broke a finger on his right hand in a 4-2 win over Vancouver two weeks ago.  The Lightning do not lack for experience in attacking that task.  In Eric Brewer, Jason Garrison, Matt Carle, and Anton Stralman, Tampa Bay has 2,320 games of regular season experience on which to draw.  The odd part, or perhaps not, given the times, is that none of the four are home grown.  Stralman is the standout here.  Signed away from the New York Rangers as a free agent last July, he leads the defensemen in average ice time (22:28), leads them in assists (8) and points (9), and leads the league’s defensemen in plus-minus (plus-11).  Against the Caps, Stralman has appeared in 19 games and has a 0-3-3 scoring line.

Here is how the teams stack up against one another (numbers through Thursday's games)…

1.  Tampa Bay has already gone through 24 skaters through just 11 games.  Only 11 of them have appeared in all 11 games to date, but all of them have at least one goal except Brenden Morrow.  Only ten of the 24 skaters were drafted by the club.

2.  No team has scored more third period goals than the Lightning (14).  The Lighting have positive goal differentials in all three periods of games (plus-3, plus-2, plus-3), and for good measure, plus-2 in overtime.

3.  Tampa Bay is a front running team.  They have scored first in seven of their 11 games and are 5-1-1 in those contests.  They are also 4-0-1 when leading after 20 minutes, 5-0-1 when leading after 40 minutes.

4.  The Lightning are another team, similar to the Red Wings, who play within the rules…sorta.  Tampa Bay has the sixth-lowest average penalty minutes per game (9.5), but they are a middle-of-the-pack team in minor penalties taken (41, 15^th fewest) and majors (4, tied for 18^th fewest).  They have yet to take a misconduct penalty of any kind or a match penalty.  They have only one bench minor otherwise.

5.  The Caps will get no break from the Lightning as far as possession is concerned.  Tampa Bay ranks right behind the Capitals in Fenwick-for percentage at 5-on-5 (seventh; 54.04 percent) and in Corsi-for percentage (sixth; 53.51; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  There are strange goings-on with the Caps’ possession numbers.  In wins, the Caps have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 48.69 percent.  In losses, it is 58.16.  Their Fenwick-for percentage at 5-on-5 is 49.33 in wins, 58.48 in losses.  The shooting percentage is a different animal. In wins it is 11.76 percent at 5-on-5; it is 7.14 percent in losses.  They’re “playing” the right way, but they have little to show for it because of inefficient shooting (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

2.  The Caps are one of five teams in the league not to have been charged with a misconduct penalty (ten-minute or game), a match penalty, or a bench minor penalty.

3.  The Caps have outscored teams 18-14 at even strength, they have an 8-7 edge in special teams goals.  And yet… 4-3-2?

4.  Teams that led games after the first period fewer times than the Caps (3 times):  Florida, Ottawa, Buffalo, Nashville, Calgary, New York Rangers, Edmonton, Detroit, Carolina, Toronto, Montreal (who has not led at the first intermission yet this season), Arizona.  For the most part, this is a pretty seedy neighborhood.

5.  Last year the Caps stunk on toast at even strength.  All those hideous individual plus-minus numbers.  This year the profile is much better.  Only seven of 22 skaters are in minus territory.  The good news about that is that none of the seven are worse than minus-3.  The bad news is who is in that territory: Nicklas Backstrom (minus-1), Alex Ovechkin (minus-1), Brooks Orpik (minus-2), and John Carlson (minus-3) among them.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ben Bishop

Tampa Bay is an offense-weighted team led by an elite goal-scorer.  Defense and goaltending merely needs to be respectable to be successful (in the regular season; the playoffs are another matter).  The Lightning have received such goaltending from Ben Bishop so far.  His numbers have been unremarkable, a goals against average of 2.39 (21^st among qualifying goaltending leaders) and a save percentage of .911 (26^th).  On the other hand, he has been remarkably consistent.  In nine appearances he wins consistently (6-1-1), and he allows goals consistently (two goals allowed four times, three goals allowed four times, although one of the three goal efforts was in just 42 minutes of a 7-2 loss to Minnesota).  He has benefited, like Capitals goaltenders, from facing shots with low frequency (26.8 shots per 60 minutes).  Where he has been weak is in stopping shots at even strength.  He is 35^th among qualifying goaltenders (four or more games) in even strength save percentage (.903).  He is 0-2-1, 4.48, .872 in four career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Mike Green

“Solid” would be the word to describe the play of Mike Green on the Capitals’ blue line.  Green is tied for eighth among defensemen in points (3-5-8), tied for ninth in plus-minus (plus-6), 12^th in shooting percentage (15.8 percent), and he has done averaging more than 20 minutes a game in ice time largely paired with a youngster with fewer than 40 games of NHL experience (Nate Schmidt, with whom Green has spent 76.0 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time).  Green has displayed a consistency of his own in the early going.  He is 1-3-4, plus-3 in four games at home; 2-2-4, plus-3 in four games on the road.  The odd part of it is that while he was once known as the prime quarterback of the Capitals power play (John Carlson has had that responsibility through the first nine games), Green is third in the league among defensemen in even-strength scoring (2-5-7).  In 42 career games against the Lightning, Green is 10-18-28, minus-4.

In the end…

This is a game that could turn on which team can impose its strengths on the other’s weaknesses.  The Caps are the better 5-on-5 team, the Lightning have better special teams.  That means that the game might be decided by how many special teams situations the Caps face.  In three games in which they faced five or more shorthanded situations, they are 1-1-1, and their win came in a Gimmick.  Facing four or fewer, the Caps are 3-2-1, and all of the wins were of the multi-goal variety.  For the zebra haters out there, this might be a game to watch. We are not of the conspiracy theory crowd, though.  We just think the Caps will win the old fashioned way, by being better.

Capitals 4 – Lightning 3

A NO-point night -- Game 9: Red Wings 4 - Capitals 2

The Washington Capitals were dealt a 4-2 loss by the Detroit Red Wings last night in a game of streaks, but we’ll get to that in a bit.  The teams battled to a scoreless first period, but Detroit broke the deadlock midway through the second period when Gustav Nyquist took advantage of a turnover in the defensive zone by the Caps to record his fifth goal of the season.  The Caps got it back less than five minutes later by taking advantage of a power play and the “long change” of the second period.  As the Red Wings were swapping out players, goalie Braden Holtby sent a long pass to Joel Ward at the Detroit blue line.  Ward hit a streaking Evgeny Kuznetsov who caught defenseman Danny DeKeyser napping to dart past him. Kuznetsov broke in alone on goalie Jimmy Howard and sanpped a shot past Howard’s blocker for his first goal of the season.

In the final minute of the second period Troy Brouwer broke the tie.  It was a case of showing why speed through the neutral zone and gaining the offensive zone with control of the puck matters.  And, it took the youngster to show them how.  Late in a Caps’ power play Andre Burakovsky took a pass from Braden Holtby just inside his own blue line at the right wing wall.  As he turned up ice he cut to the middle, then carried the puck over the Red Wing blue line to the top of the left wing faceoff circle.  He took a couple of extra strides to the goal line and sent the puck around the boards to the right side as the power play was about to expire.  The puck came around to Mike Green at the right point, who backed off to the blue line, then sent the puck back down to Burakovsky, who came out from around the Detroit cage.  Burakovsky found John Carlson at the high edge of the right wing faceoff circle.  Carlson stepped up as if to shoot, but he found Troy Brouwer sneaking in off the weak side, having just stepped onto the ice on a line change.  Brouwer had a clear line of sight on the Detroit net and beat Howard before the goalie could step across to cut off the shot. 

That would do it for the Caps’ scoring, though.  Justin Abdelkader tied the game in the fifth minute of the third period, then scored what would be the game winner six minutes later.  Pavel Datsyuk added a power play goal in the final minute to give the Red Wings their final winning margin, 4-2.

Other stuff…

-- Like we said, “streaks.”  It was the second consecutive game that the Caps lost in regulation time after a 4-1-2 start to the season.  It was the fifth straight game in which Alex Ovechkin did not register a point, the longest streak of his career.  It was the fifth straight game in which the Caps allowed a power play goal.  It was the second straight game that the Caps allowed three goals in a period in a game – three in the third period of this one following a three-goal second period for Vancouver last Sunday.  It was their second straight loss by a 4-2 margin.

-- The Caps went all Jose Canseco and shot themselves – repeatedly – when they thought they had the puck.  First it was Marcus Johansson, who pulled the hockey equivalent of the received in football who takes his eyes off the ball to turn upfield before he catches it, only to drop the pass.  In this instance it was Johansson turning up ice as a loose puck was coming to him.  Instead of focusing on securing the bouncing puck, his momentum was already in the other direction, and the puck hit him in his skate boot.  Justin Abdelkader gladly accepted the gift on behalf of his teammates and threaded a pass to Gustav Nyquist  all alone in front of Braden Holtby.  He was so alone that he got two whacks at the puck, the first to chip it off and over Holtby’s right pad, and another to swat it out of the air and in for the score.

-- Then there was Brooks Orpik playing, “The Lord giveth, and the Lord taketh away.”  It started with Orpik blocking a drive by Henrik Zetterberg.  Seconds later, after Braden Holtby stopped a Kyle Quincy drive, Orpik collected the loose puck to Holtby’s left. Whereupon he “givethed.”  As he was about to take the puck around to the back of the net, he lost it off his stick with Pavel Datsyuk standing five feet away.  Datsyuk gladly accepted the gift on behalf of his teammates and tried to stuff the puck past Holtby’s pad.  Holtby made that save, the puck squirting out to the slot.  Andre Burakovsky swooped in to grab the puck, but then he left it behind for Abdelkader who wasted no time in firing the puck past Holtby.

-- Then there was the neutral zone turnover.  From his own blue line John Carlson tried to sent a long cross ice pass to Alex Ovechkin at the Detroit blue line.  Henrik Zetterberg knocked the pass out of the air and fed Datsyuk heading into the Caps’ end.  Four Caps converged on Datsyuk.  That’s right four… Nicklas Backstrom, Joel Ward, Brooks Orpik, and John Carlson.  Datsyuk being Datsyuk, he just knew there was an open Wing on the wing.  It was Abdelkader again, who trailed in Datsyuk’s wake, took the feed, and had a free shot on Holtby that he converted for the game-winning goal.

-- Burakovsky just keeps on chugging along.  His assist makes it points in seven of the nine games in which he has played and 2-6-8 overall.

-- At least Ovechkin was shooting the puck.  Seven shots on goal (13 attempts) was one off his season high – eight in the 6-5 Gimmick loss to San Jose in Game 3.

-- At least the Caps are back under 30 shots allowed.  Detroit managed only 22 shots on goal.  The Caps out-Corsi’ed the Red Wings, 58-42.  Is there a trophy named after this Corsi guy, because the Caps might have to settle for that one.

-- Tom Wilson saw his first action of the season, and in one respect he was in mid-season form.  He recorded four hits in 8:14 of ice time.

-- Orpik was on ice for each of the last three goals, as was John Carlson.  Of the 21 goals surrendered by the Caps this season, Orpik has been on ice for 12 of them, Carlson for 11.  Being on the wrong side of 50 percent of the goals scored against isn’t a great place to be.

-- Nicklas Backstrom… no points, a penalty, minus-2 (his first minus-2 of the season).  Hey, it happens.

-- Troy Brouwer’s goal broke a personal five-game streak without one.

No one is going to want to watch film of this one.  Defensive breakdowns, iffy goaltending (Holtby might want the last two goals back), general discombobulation overall.  It might have been the worst performance by the Caps this season so far.  Maybe it’s the infrequent hockey; the team has played only four games over the past 11 days (three three-or-more-day breaks) and lost three of them.  Whatever it is, they had better shake it off soon.  On October 18th they were 3-0-2, second in the Metropolitan Division and third in the Eastern Conference.  Today they are 4-3-2, in sixth place in the division and tenth in the conference.  You can’t win a Stanley Cup in October or November, but you can lose one.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 9: Red Wings at Capitals, October 29th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to Verizon Center on Wednesday night to host the Detroit Red Wings in a matchup of a pair of 4-2-2 teams. Both teams have lost two of their past three games. Both teams have beaten the Boston Bruins. Both teams have lost to the Montreal Canadiens in extra time. They’re pretty much the same team.

OK, except for the 11 Stanley Cups.

This edition of the Detroit Red Wings is a team in transition. Oh, sure, they are still Wayne County’s Geriatric Athletic Club, the fifth-oldest team in the league, and only one rookie has dressed for the team so far this season (center Andrej Nestrasil, for the record). However, it is a team that has iced nine skaters age 25 or younger, right wing Gustav Nyquist (28 goals last season), defenseman Danny DeKeyser (eighth in scoring among rookie defensemen last season), and Tomas Tatar (second to Nyquist in goals for the club last season with 19). That is where the future lies for the Red Wings.

For now, though, Detroit’s personality remains embodied in their “Old Guns:” Pavel Datsyuk (36 years old), Johan Franzen (34), Henrik Zetterberg (34), and Niklas Kronwall (33). All but Datsyuk (signed as a free agent out of Russia) were drafted by the club. All of them have their names on the Stanley Cup.

However, they are “old” guns, and with it bring the occasional physical issues. Franzen is on injured reserve with a lower body injury. Datsyuk missed the first five games of the season with a separated shoulder. Zetterberg has been healthy so far, appearing in all eight games for the Red Wings, but last year he missed 37 games to a herniated disc that required surgery.

Kronwall is the only one of the four who has not had some recent issue with injuries. In fact, he has missed only five games over the past four-plus seasons and is coming off a near career year in points (49, surpassed only by the 51-point season he had in 2008-2009). So far this season Kronwall has a respectable six points in eight games, good enough to be among the top dozen point-getters among defensemen (going into Tuesday night’s games). He had three of those points (two goals, assist), including the game-tying goal with nine seconds left in regulation, in a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins last Thursday. He also leads the Red Wings in average ice time (23:55), almost three full minutes per game more than DeKeyser (21:02). In ten career games against the Caps, Kronwall is 1-4-5, minus-5.

If there is a surprise for the Red Wings so far, it might be Justin Abdelkader, who is tied for third in overall scoring for the club in eight games. Abdelkader, who has never recorded more than 28 points in a season, is already in his eighth season with Detroit, despite being only 27 years old. After recording points in three of his first four games of the season, he cooled off a bit, but he did have the game-winning overtime goal in the win over the Penguins. Six of his 41 career goals are game-winners (including four of his last 12 goals dating back to last season), which might not be especially impressive except he is used primarily as a checking forward.

Here is how the teams compare, numbers-wise:

1. Before there were “fancystats,” Detroit was regarded by many as the premier possession team in the league. While they might not be what they once were in that regard, they still are allowing the sixth fewest shots on goal in the league (26.9). They are also fifth in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (53.9) and tenth in Fenwick-for percentage (52.4).

2. Detroit has played games close. No team has more one-goal decisions than the six put together by the Red Wings (Chicago, Ottawa, and Florida also have six). The Red Wings are 3-1-2 in those games.

3. Scoring first or trailing first, it does not seem to matter to Detroit. They are 2-1-1 in each situation.

4. If there was a Lady Byng Trophy, team edition, the Red Wings might be a finalist. Only Chicago (7.2), Philadelphia (7.8…say WHAT?), and Nashville (8.1) have fewer penalty minutes per game than Detroit (8.5). A lot of that is attributable to the fact that only the Blackhawks and Red Wings are without a major penalty charged to them so far this season.

5. The Red Wings have allowed one power play goal in eight games so far this season. Not one per game…one. They are 25-for-26 when shorthanded. If there is consolation to be had in this, the Flyers broke a 25-for-25 streak to open the season when they scored a power play goal in the third period of a 4-2 win over the Red Wings last Saturday in Detroit’s most recent contest.  On the flip side, the Red Wing power play stinks on toast.  The are 0-for-19 over their last five games and are 2-for-30 for the season.  Detroit has yet to score a power play goal on the road.

1. Even having had their fewer-than-30-shots-allowed streak ended at seven games in the loss to Vancouver on Sunday, the Caps still rank third in the league in shots allowed per game (25.0). That is 8.5 shots per game fewer than what they allowed last season (33.5). It is by far the fewest they have allowed, on average, since the 2004-2005 lockout (2007-2008: 27.5).

2. From the odd-stat department… Nate Schmidt is plus-6 on the season. He is the highest ranked defenseman in that statistic who has yet to record a point this season (Jay Bouwmeester is plus-5 with St. Louis).

3. Troy Brouwer is 1-3-4, plus-2 in four games at Verizon Center; he is without a point on the road and is a minus-2 in four games.

4. This game will be Matt Niskanen’s 500th game in the NHL. With the Caps he is averaging 23:14 a game, almost two full minutes more than his career season in average ice time (21:18 with Pittsburgh last season).

5. Niskanen’s even strength ice time per game (19:35) leads the team by almost two minutes. However, the next four defensemen are tightly bunched in even strength ice time per game, ranging from 16:48 (John Carlson) to 17:55 (Mike Green), the difference being a little more than one shift per game.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder:

Detroit: Jimmy Howard

Consider three goaltenders and their records since 2009-2010:

• Goaltender A: 269 games, 138-83-34, 2.38, .919
• Goaltender B: 265 games, 145-82-31, 2.39, .919
• Goaltender C: 282 games, 154-82-39, 2.40, .917

Not much difference there. Goaltender A is Nashville’s Pekka Rinne, and Goaltender B is Florida’s Roberto Luongo, two goalies generally thought of as being among the best in the NHL. Goaltender C is Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, who does not get much thought at all, at least as it pertains to the best goalies in the league. Part of the problem is Howard’s own consistency, or lack of it on a year to year basis. Since that 2009-2010 season his save percentage has yo-yo’ed: .924, .908, .920, .923, .910, and .929 in six appearances so far this season. In those six appearances he has yet to allow more than three goals in any of them, and he has yet to allow a power play goal this season (28-for-28 in saves). In five career appearances against the Caps, Howard is 2-1-2, 3.47, .871.

Washington: Brooks Orpik

Through eight games with the Capitals, Brook Orpik has been pretty much as advertised. He has been a punishing hitter, credited with the second highest number of hits among NHL defensemen (31; Toronto’s Roman Polak has 37). He logs significant minutes – 20:52 per game – and much of that on the penalty kill (2:57, second to John Carlson on the club). The flip side of that is that he can be solved; the nine goals against while on ice is the highest on the team, although that number does not rank among the top-30 in the league. Here is your odd Brooks Orpik number for this game: “0.” In 711 regular season NHL games, Brooks Orpik has never scored a game-winning goal. Maybe this game is the one. In ten career regular season games against the Red Wings, Orpik is 0-2-2, minus-1.

In the end…

Here are two teams with very similar profiles at this young stage of the 2014-2015 season. Caps fans will look at the 4-2-2 record and think, “hey, an improvement.” Red Wing fans might look at their club’s 4-2-2 record and think, “meh.” Even with the comparative lack of success in recent years (the Red Wings have not advanced to a conference final since losing the Stanley Cup final in 2009), expectations are high in the Motor City.

In Washington, the pedigree is not as renowned; they haven’t reached a conference final since former Caps coach Dale Hunter was still playing for the club (1998, in case you forgot). In that sense, the teams are alike only in their numbers. For despite having gone 4-0-1 in their last five meetings against Detroit and 6-2-1 in their last nine meetings (all three losses by one goal), there is probably the lingering feeling in these parts that the Wings are – and should be – the favorite. Yeah, well, we aren’t buying it.

Capitals 3 – Red Wings 2