Washington Capitals Recap -- Flyers at Capitals, Game 5: Flyers 2 - Capitals 0

And now, the gnashing of teeth begins.

The Washington Capitals saw their once all-but-insurmountable 3-0 lead in their first round playoff series over the Philadelphia Flyers whittled to a 3-2 lead as the Flyers won Game 5, 2-0, in Washington on Friday night.

Scoring was sparse, but not the ill-will, expressing itself right off the opening faceoff when Washington’s T.J. Oshie and Philadelphia’s Braden Schenn dropped the gloves, Oshie reminding Schenn that trying to chop the knees out from under Evgeny Kuznetsov in Game 4 was remembered and something to be dealt with.

The two had been yapping at one another all through the prelude to the drop of the puck, and just ten seconds into the game they expressed their mutual distaste for one another.  We had the bout as a draw, and that is how the first period ended, the teams scoreless.

It would be the Flyers breaking the ice in the second period just as a Philadelphia power play was expiring.  Working the puck around the perimeter of the offensive zone, Sam Gagner one-timed a pass from Mark Streit at the Washington net.  The puck was deadened in front, but Ryan White – the other stick in the ribs of the Caps in this series – managed to poke the loose puck past goalie Braden Holtby to make it 1-0, 7:52 into the period.

The Flyers and goalie Michal Neuvirth made that goal stand up, and the Flyers scored an empty net goal by Chris VandeVelde with 30.8 seconds left for the final 2-0 margin

Other stuff…

-- The Caps picked precisely the wrong time to lose consecutive games in regulation time for the first time this season.  In another way, it should not be surprising.  In 20 Games 5 on home ice in Caps history, the club is now 8-12.

-- A subplot to this series is emerging, that being which is the stronger force, Justin Williams as the clutch playoff performer or the Caps’ playoff history of misfortune.  They intersected on Friday night in the form of four minor penalties taken by Williams, three of them for high-sticking (including a double-minor barely a minute into the game) and another for goaltender interference.  Williams does not have a goal in this series (two assists, both on power plays) and is a minus-4.

-- The 44 shots on goal for the Caps was not a team playoff record for a game settled in regulation, but they could see it from here.  Only three times did a Caps team record more shots on goal in a 60-minute playoff game – 45 shots in a 4-3 loss to the New York Rangers in Game 6 of their playoff series in 2015, 49 shots in a 7-1 win over the Rangers in Game 3 of their 1990 playoff series, and 54 shots in a 4-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens in Game 6 of their 2010 postseason series.

-- The shot differential of plus-33 (44-11) is a team record, surpassing the plus-32 the Caps recorded in that 4-1 loss to Montreal in Game 6 of the 2010 Easter Conference quarterfinals (54-22).  The shots on goal allowed (11) ties for the second fewest allowed by the Caps in a playoff game in team history.  The Caps limited the New Jersey Devils to 10 shots on goal in a 2-1 loss in Game 3 of their 1990 series against the Devils.

-- This game was the 12^th in his career that Alex Ovechkin recorded eight or more shots.  It was the sixth time he did so and failed to record a goal.

-- Game 5 was the 14^th time in club history that the Caps were shut out in a postseason game, the ninth time on home ice.  It was the second time a Flyer goaltender turned the trick, the other time occurring in Game 2 of the 2008 series between the clubs when Martin Biron stopped all 24 shots in a 2-0 win in Washington.

-- The magic for Jason Chimera seems to have been spent in that 100-foot goal in Game 2.  Since that fluke goal, he has one shot on goal, none in the last three games, including Game 5 last night.

-- The Caps started this series going 8-for-17 on the power play in Games 1-3 (47.1 percent), all wins, but they are 0-for-5 over the last two games, both losses.  They now have the second-best power play in the postseason (36.4 percent, to Pittsburgh’s 36.8 percent), but how they got there has come to matter in this series.

-- Braden Holtby has faced just 35 shots over the last two games, stopping 32 of them.  A 1.52 goals against average over two games would suggest he added two wins to his record, but the opposite is true.

-- The Caps had a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall of 78.8 percent (63-17 in shot attempts).  That is the highest Corsi-for at 5-on-5 for the Caps in any game, regular season or playoff, in the post 2004-2005 period (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

Well, here we are.  Holding a 3-1 lead, losing Game 5 to make it 3-2.  Talk about history not meaning anything at this point sounds like whistling past the graveyard.  More ominously, this series is now setting up to look far too much like the 2010 Eastern Conference quarterfinal against the Montreal Canadiens.  Think about it (or perhaps don’t)…Presidents Trophy winning Caps against an 8-seed that struggled to make the post season.  The Caps dominate the series early, leaving the opponents in a quandary about goaltending.  Finally, a journeyman goaltender emerges to frustrate the Capitals relentlessly, and the team in front of him plays just well enough to eke out wins despite being utterly dominated everywhere but on the scoreboard.

It was Jaroslav Halak who so frustrated the Caps in 2010.  Now, Michal Neuvirth is trying to step into that role for the Flyers in 2016.  The cruel irony of it, of course, is Neuvirth having once been a draft pick and a playoff goaltender for the Caps.

The talk of another Caps collapse in the postseason will be hard to avoid over the next 30 hours before the teams meet at high noon in Philadelphia on Sunday.  For the Caps and their fans, it will be to wonder if the 3-0 lead the club took in this series was just a different road to an inevitable destination...a Game 7 in Washington on Wednesday night.

For the Washington Capitals and Their Fans... A Word

Be seated…

Now, I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a hockey game by taking a penalty for his team. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard take a penalty for his team. Men, all this stuff you’ve heard about the Caps not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the contest, is a lot of horse dung. Caps traditionally love to fight. All real Caps love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer. Caps fans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Caps play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost...and laughed. That’s why Caps have never lost and will never lose a big game. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Capitals.

Now... a hockey club is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, checks as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The bilious bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for NHL Network don’t know anything more about real hockey games than they do about fornicating.

We have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. You know, by God I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to check the bastards, we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to tape the blades of our sticks. We’re going to hit those lousy Flyer bastards by the bushel.

Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Flyers are the enemy. Wade into them. Spill their blood. Check them into the boards. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face...you'll know what to do.

Now there’s another thing I want you to remember. I don’t want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let Philadelphia do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose, and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time, and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks you, "what did you do in the great National Hockey League," you won’t have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in DC."

Alright now, you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel. Oh...and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle – anytime, anywhere.

...That’s all.

Capitals vs. Flyers: Takeaways and Throwaways from Game 4

Game 4 in the playoff series between the Washington Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers is one that Caps fans hope they do not look back on with the same wistful memory expressed in the last lines of the poem, “Maud Muller,” by John Greenleaf Whittier…

“For of all sad words of tongue or pen,

The saddest are these: ‘It might have been!’”

The Capitals had a chance to write new history in Game 4 with a win for a series sweep, what would have been the first in franchise history in a best-of-seven series, but that history waits for another day.  For now, we can address the takeaways and throwaways of Game 4.

Takeaways…

• Washington was 60.7 percent to the good in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall, and their scoring chances were similarly dominant – 37-19 overall and 17-8 in high-danger scoring chances.  They had a 10-1 advantage in high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 in the first period, averaging a little more than one every other minute at fives (numbers from war-on-ice.com). 
• John Carlson saw his power play goals streak end at three in Game 4, but he remains a force.  He had five shots on goal to lead the team, 11 shot attempts (also leading the team), two hits, and a takeaway.  He still leads all defensemen in the playoffs in points, power play points, is tied for the lead in goals, and he is doing it while logging more than 24 minutes a game.  If there was an “all-tournament team” for the playoffs so far, he might get one of the defenseman slots.
• Andre Burakovsky was robbed of a goal by Michal Neuvirth in the third period, but the takeaway was not the scoring opportunity snuffed out as much as Burakovsky’s offensive assertiveness, which had been lacking in the first three games.  He finished with four shots on goal, eight shot attempts.  He added a couple of takeaways in his 15:28 of ice time.
• Including Game 1 of this series, the Caps are 21-5 in games following a loss this season (the losses include three in extra time).  In those games, they outscored their opponent on average by a 3.15 – 2.00 margin.
• Among goalies having faced at least 50 shots so far in the postseason, Braden Holtby is still first in goals against average (1.00) and first in save percentage (.966), first in save percentage when the Caps are shorthanded (.955), and second in even-strength save percentage (by 968, by rounding to Brian Elliott’s .968).  Going back to the regular season, he has allowed two or fewer goals in 11 of his last 15 games, one or no goals nine times.

Throwaways…

• About that Corsi-for number.  First period slow starts continue to bedevil the Caps.  On top of allowing the first Flyer power play goal of the series, they had just a 21-20 edge in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
• Michal Neuvirth had a fine game.  He deserved the number one star.  But, is it a trend?  In his last four games, going back to the regular season, he alternated games with a save percentage over .920 and a save percentage under .890.  He has been really good or not really good lately.  And, in his last seven road games his save percentage is a less-than-sparkling .897.
• The Caps were 0-for-2 on the power play after going 8-for-17 over the first three games.  Call it a course correction, but it might just be a bump on the road.  The Caps were 18-9 in games in which they had two or fewer power play opportunities this season (losses included those in extra time), 38-17 in games in which they had three or more man-advantages.
• Alex Ovechkin had only two shots on goal.  That’s not his sweet spot.  Only once this season in 13 games in which he recorded two or fewer shots did he score a goal (January 17^th, a goal on two shots in a 5-2 win over the New York Rangers).  In the 13 games he played following one with two shots or fewer recorded, he scored goals in seven of them.
• The top line for the Flyers finally broke through with their first points of the series.  Well, two thirds of it.  Claude Giroux had an assist, and Wayne Simmonds had assists on both Flyer goals in Game 4.  Jakub Voracek didn’t skate with his former linemates, having been replaced by Brayden Schenn (who had an assist on the Flyers’ power play goal).  Still, those four players will take a combined two points at even strength into Game 5.

In the end…

It is not losing a game that is a problem, it is losing “games”…plural, as in “in a row.”  One of the hallmarks for the Caps this season has been in avoiding the plural form of the noun, “loss.”  The Flyers cannot afford any instance of that word, or their season is over.  As much as Game 5 has an ill-sounding ring to Caps fans, wouldn’t you rather be in the Caps’ position right now?

Photo: Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images

Washington Capitals Recap -- Capitals at Flyers, Game 4: Flyers 2 - Capitals 1

History will have to wait for another day. The Washington Capitals were denied a sweep of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series by the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday night, the Flyers holding on for a 2-1 win. The Caps, still waiting for their first best-of-seven series sweep in franchise history, lead the series, 3-1.

The Flyers opened the scoring in the first period by breaking a string of power play failures. With Taylor Chorney in the penalty box for interference, Shayne Gostisbehere took a Claude Giroux feed at the top of the offensive zone and one-timed it past goalie Braden Holtby at the 5:51 mark for the 1-0 lead.

That was all for the scoring until early in the second period when Andrew MacDonald nearly duplicated Gostisberhere’s goal, taking a pass from Wayne Simmonds at the left point and rocketing a one-timer past Holtby 3:51 into the period for a 2-0 Flyers lead.

T.J. Oshie spoiled the shutout in the third period. In the third minute of the period. Oshie started the play by circling behind the Flyer net with the puck and kicking it out to Karl Alzner at the left point. Alzner moved it across to Matt Niskanen, who let loose with a shot at the Flyer net. The puck pinballed around in front, ending up back on Oshie’s stick to the right of goalie Michal Neuvirth. Oshie had time and space to flip a backhand over Neuvirth’s blocker, and it was 2-1, 2:38 into the period.

That was as close as the Caps would get, though, as Neuvirth closed the door on any comeback hopes, the Flyers extending the series another game with the 2-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- It was the Caps’ turn to experience frustration over shots not going in. They out-shot the Flyers, 32-25, and they out-attempted Philadelphia by a 76-47 margin.

-- Jason Chimera and Karl Alzner were the only Capitals without a shot on goal.

-- The key might have been Philadelphia’s discipline. After giving the Capitals nine power plays on Monday night, the Flyers went shorthanded just twice on Wednesday, killing off both Washington power plays.

--  Then there was “Winning for Scott.”  Scott Laughton and John Carlson got tangled up going for a loose puck behind the Caps’ net late in the first period and the Flyers still nursing a 1-0 lead.  Laughton lost an edge and slid hard into the end boards, where he lay motionless.  And at that moment, if only for a moment, everyone was on the same team, hoping that Laughton was not seriously injured…

-- John Carlson’s string of games with a power play goal ended at three, and while he did not record a power play shot on goal, he did lead the team in shots on goal overall with five.

-- It was a comparatively quiet night for Alex Ovechkin, who managed just two shots on goal for the game (eight attempts, after getting 18 attempts in Game 3).

-- This was just the eighth time in 38 career playoff games that Braden Holtby faced 25 or fewer shots (he faced 25).  It was just his second loss in such games, the other coming in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semi-finals against the New York Rangers in 2012, a 3-1 Capitals loss.

-- It was a reasonably even night up and down the roster for the Caps, ice time wise.  Mike Richards was the only Capital not to get ten minutes (9:42).

-- Richards led the team in credited hits with six.  Fourteen of the 18 skaters for the Caps were credited with at least one, which was also true for the Flyers.

-- Taylor Chorney filled in for the injured Brook Orpik, and he did not do badly in 12 minutes and change.  One shot on goal, two hits, two blocked shots.  Oh, there was that penalty that led to the Flyers’ first goal.

In the end…

Sweeping a postseason series is hard.  Teams that get this far are prideful, and the Flyers are certainly that.  They also had the incentive to sponge away the ghastly performance – that of themselves and some of their fans – on Monday night.  Still, the Caps won the possession battle, they played the Flyers even at 5-on-5, and they were in the game to the end.  If a Caps fan wants to hang their hat on that hook, it’s a pretty sturdy one.  This loss could be – perhaps should be – just a speed bump in this series.  On the other hand, Caps fans might now have that odd feeling in the pit of their stomach about what Friday represents.  “Game 5” has often been a pivotal one, either to close a series (they have won a playoff series in five games three times in franchise history) or as a stop on the way to a seven game series.  If this team is truly different from their predecessors, there will be handshakes on the ice Friday night.

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Capitals vs. Flyers: Takeaways and Throwaways from Game 3

The Caps are in uncharted territory with a 3-0 lead in games in their first-round playoff series against the Philadelphia Flyers.  It makes it difficult to keep the “takeaways” to just five, and it makes it difficult to find as many as five “throwaways.”  But let’s take a look at where we are after Game 3.

Takeaways…

• John Carlson has power play goals in three straight games in this postseason.  The last time that happened was in April 1993, when Al Iafrate turned the trick in Games 4-5-6 against the New York Islanders.  The power play goal he had in Game 5 of that series was part of a hat trick in a 6-4 win, the only hat trick by a defenseman in Caps’ postseason history.  Those three games did not have the happy endings Carlson’s had.  The Caps lost Games 4 and 6 and the series to the Islanders.
• Since Alex Ovechkin came into the league, he is one of only two players to appear in 30 or more postseason games and average more than a half a goal per game.  Mike Cammalleri has 17 goals in 32 games (0.53 goals per game), while Ovechkin has 39 goals in 75 games (0.52 per game).  In that time, only four players have averaged more points per game than Ovechkin (0.99) – Sidney Crosby (1.19), Evgeni Malkin (1.10), Claude Giroux (1.02…oops), and Cammalleri (1.00).
• Only once in 26 playoff games against the Flyers in Caps franchise history did the Caps score more goals than the six they scored on Monday night – April 14, 1988, when they beat the Flyers, 7-2, in Game 6 of the Patrick Division semi-finals.  The five-goal margin of victory in the 6-1 win tied that game for the largest margin of victory for the Caps in the playoff rivalry with the Flyers.
• Marcus Johansson already has five points in the three games of this series so far.  He is within one point of his career best in postseason points, set in 2011 when he went 2-4-6 in nine games.
• Jay Beagle is the only player in the post season with two or more goals who has a shooting percentage of 50 percent or better and a faceoff winning percentage of 50 percent or better.

Throwaways…

• The Caps were 40 percent or lower in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 for the second straight game.  In those two games they are a minus-40 in Corsi and 38.8 percent.  But, they were 1-1 in goals scored at fives in Game 3 and are plus-3 for the series.
• Jason Chimera did not have a shot attempt in Game 3.  Hey, after his 101-footer for a goal in Game 2, he gets a pass.
• Andre Burakovsky did not have a shot on goal in Game 3.  That makes three games without a shot on goal, the only forward for the Caps without one so far.
• It’s nice that the Flyers have been so accommodating, going shorthanded so often, but only four teams have been shorthanded more times than the Caps (13) so far in the postseason: Los Angeles (14), Detroit (14), the Flyers (17), and Tampa Bay (17).  Only two teams – Detroit (23) and Tampa Bay (27) have taken more minor penalties than the Caps (21).
• Guess the notice didn’t have room to say “DO NOT USE AS A PROP TO PROTEST THE FLYERS PERFORMANCE”

The Caps can do something on Wednesday night they have never done in a seven-game series.  It will not be easy.  Nothing in the NHL postseason is.  But the Caps have gotten this far with a formula that has served them well so far this season – very good special teams and outstanding goaltending.  If their 5-on-5 play (15^th-ranked Corsi-for at 5-on-5) catches up, this series could be in for an early end.

Lead Photo: Elsa/Getty Images

Washington Capitals Recap -- Capitals at Flyers, Game 3: Capitals 6 - Flyers 1

The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers had a fight on Monday night, and a hockey game broke out.  The Caps spotted the Flyers a goal in the first minute on an emotional night when the Flyers honored Ed Snider, owner of the club since it came into the league in 1967 who passed away a week ago.  It would not be a night that the Flyers would want to remember on the ice, though.  The Caps scored six unanswered goals, five of them on the power play, to take a stranglehold 3-0 lead in the series after the 6-1 win in Game 3.

The Flyers opened the scoring just 57 seconds into the game when Brandon Manning fired a shot from distance that goalie Braden Holtby stopped.  Michael Raffl got position on Brooks Orpik on the rebound, though, and swept the puck past Holtby’s right pad to give the Flyers the early lead.

And then, the game changed.  It started slowly, as a John Carlson drive from the top of the offensive zone nicked Marcus Johansson on the way through and eluded goalie Steve Mason to make it 1-1 at the 4:43 mark.  The storm was coming…

The storm clouds were gathering, but there was no further scoring in the first period.   That situation was remedied by Alex Ovechkin in the ninth minute of the second period when he hid behind a linesman at the Flyer blue line.  Then, as Nicklas Backstrom got control of the puck, he broke off the wall and took a pass from his linemate.  Skating in on Mason, Ovechkin snapped a shot that beat Mason cleanly to the far side, and it was 2-1, 8:50 into the period.   Suddenly, the winds were starting to wind up.  The forecast was for the possibility of more inclement weather to wreak havoc on the Flyers…

The Flyers might have been lucky to get out of the period down a goal, but they could not help themselves from doing something stupid.  With Evgeny Kuznetsov in the box and the Flyers looking at 30 seconds of power play time to start the third period, Brayden Schenn took a slashing penalty at the end of the period that would give the Caps a 90-second power play when the Kuznetsov minor expired.   The winds were starting to howl; the rain was pouring down…

And, irony of ironies, it was Kuznetsov who made the Flyers pay for their iffy judgment.  Braden Holtby got the play started by sending a long pass up the right wing to Justin Williams at the Flyer blue line.  Williams fired the puck on a hard-around that hit a stanchion and hopped out in front of Mason.  With a chance to freeze the puck, Mason misplayed the puck off the end of his glove where Kuznetsov picked it up.  Taking a moment to create some space, Kuznetsov wristed a shot past Mason’s glove to make it 3-1 just 1:58 into the period.  The deluge had begun…

Then the Flyers channeled their 1975 edition.  Trouble is, this club is not as talented as that one, and the march of penalties that unfolded did them in.  Mark Streit went off at 6:04 with T.J. Oshie on coincidental minors, but then Radko Gudas went off 31 seconds later on a tripping call.  A minute later, John Carlson made it 4-1, taking a pass from Alex Ovechkin, looping around Ovechkin at the top of the zone, and firing a slap shot that beat Mason at the 7:37 mark.  It was now a Category 4 hurricane…

The Flyers just lost their minds after that.  Pierre-Edouard Bellemare checked Dmitry Orlov into the boards head-first at the 12:17 mark to give the Caps a five-minute power play.  Gudas and Ryan White took ten-minute misconducts.  On the ensuing power play, Ovechkin scored his second goal of the game and third of the series.  Firing a one-timer off a pass from John Carlson, the shot was blocked by Nick Schultz.  The puck came right back to Ovechkin, and his second attempt did not miss, beating Mason to make it 5-1, 14:58 into the period.  The Caps were flirting with a Cat-5 storm…

The Flyers took one more penalty to give the Caps one last power play chance, and Jay Beagle poured salt into the Flyer wounds, rewarded for his persistence in front of the net by poking a loose puck past Mason with just 1:40 left for the final score, 6-1.  The storm had finally ended, laying waste the Flyers’ hopes of using the energy from their ceremony honoring Ed Snider to get back into the series.

Other stuff…

-- Brooks Orpik left the game 12 minutes into the second period after taking a hit from Ryan White along the boards.  Orpik was helped off the ice in considerable distress, and although the news from the locker room would be that his return was questionable (he did not return), he did not have the look of a player who would return on Wednesday for Game 4.

-- The Capitals set a club record with five power play goals in a post season game, besting the four that they recorded in 7-2 win in Game 6 of the 1988 Patrick Division semi-finals against the Flyers.  In three games, the Caps are now 8-for-17 in the series with the man-advantage (47.1 percent).  In the last two games, the Caps are shooting 7-for-15 (46.7 percent).

-- The Flyers had 53 minutes in penalties.  That was the most a Flyer team had against the Caps in a playoff game since they took 63 minutes in penalties in Game 5 of the 1988 Patrick Division semi-final, a 5-2 win for the Caps. 

-- Braden Holtby had an assist.  That gives him more points than Wayne Simmonds and Claude Giroux, and as many as those two and Shayne Gostisbehere….combined.

-- As for his day job, here is how well Braden Holtby has played in this series.  He stopped 31 of 32 shots, and his save percentage went down.  He came into the game having stopped 60 of 61 shots (.984 save percentage), and his .969 save percentage in Game 3 left him with a .978 save percentage through three games.

-- Alex Ovechkin seems to live for games like this.  Two goals, six shots on goal, 18 shot attempts, three hits, an assist, and plus-1 (as “plus-y” as any Cap could be, given that five of their six goals came on power plays).

-- The Capitals power play could light a medium-sized city at the moment.  They are 8-for-17 in this series (47.1 percent), and their shooting is 7-for-15 in the last two games (46.7 percent).

-- Jay Beagle has as many goals (2) as the entire Flyer team…John Carlson has more power play goals (3) than 13 other teams in the postseason (pending results from late games)…Marcus Johansson had five times as many shot attempts in this game (five, three of them on goal) than he had in the first two games combined (one)…the Caps now have seven players with goals; the Flyers have six players with points…Nicklas Backstrom had a pair of assists; he leads the league with five helpers…the Caps have five road power play goals (in one game); last season they had two in seven road games.

-- The Caps killed off all five Flyer power plays, making them 13-for-13 in this series.  Their special teams index is now 147.1. 

-- Philly did win the shot attempt battle at 5-on-5, 48-32 (60.0 percent Corsi-for).  But when the Caps end up with the most power play chances in a playoff game in the post 2004-2005 lockout era, that statistic just doesn’t have the same heft (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

This is the 36^th best-of-seven postseason series in which the Caps have participated in franchise history.  It is the first time the Caps ever took a 3-0 lead in games.  And to do it under adverse circumstances – on the road, against a bitter rival, with the team honoring their long-time owner who recently passed away.  The intangibles were in the Flyers’ favor.  And when the Flyers scored in the first minute, it seemed possible that this game could get away fairly quickly.  But as the Caps did so often over the first two-thirds of the season, they shook off some early troubles, paid attention to business, and just ground down the Flyers, with the added benefit of the Flyers melting down in the third period to put the Caps on the power play for a grand total of 12:48 for the game.

It isn’t over until it is over, this being a matter of “first to four,” not “first to three.”  However, the Caps have been so clearly superior in most aspects of the game that one wonders if the Flyers will ever get to “one,” let alone “four.”

Capitals vs. Flyers: Takeaways and Throwaways from Game 2

With two games of their first-round playoff series in the books, the Washington Capitals have a 2-0 lead on the Philadelphia Flyers.    What are the takeaways and throwaways from Game 2?

Takeaways…

• How many goalies over the last 30 years with at least 20 games played have a playoff career goals against average of below 2.00 and a save percentage over .930?  One…Braden Holtby (1.84, .938).
• Nicklas Backstrom had his fifth career three-point playoff game, tying him with Alex Ovechkin for the most on the club since Backstrom came into the league in 2007-2008.  Every time that Backstrom recorded three or more points, the Caps won. 
• Jason Chimera scored his 12^th career playoff goal as a Washington Capital.  The oddity of scoring from 100 feet out aside, it was the game-winning goal, making half of his career playoff goals (6) of the game-winning variety.  His sixth game-winning goal as a Capital ties him with Peter Bondra for the all-time franchise lead.   Bondra scored his six game-winners in 73 career playoff games with the Caps; Chimera did it in 53 games.
• John Carlson is doing it at both ends of the ice, in a manner of speaking.  He is tied for the league lead in points among defensemen in the playoffs so far, his goal and two assists tied with San Jose’s Brent Burns and Florida’s Dmitry Kulikov (yeah, it’s early).  He has the only game-winning goal by a defenseman in the playoffs thus far and leads all defensemen in power play goals (2).  At the other end, he leads all defensemen in blocked shots with ten.
• The Caps’ power play (37.5 percent) and penalty kill (100.0 percent) add up to a special teams index of 137.5, best in the league at the moment (Anaheim: 125.0).

Throwaways…

• This is the eighth time that the Capitals have taken a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series.  In their previous seven instances, they won just two series, both times by a 4-1 margin.  Three times in five series losses they went to seven games.  Yeah…file that under “history, ancient.”
• From the “odd coincidence” file…Game 2 was the fourth straight postseason game in which Tom Wilson recorded at least two penalty minutes, and the Caps won.  We would just as soon the Caps not keep testing this proposition.
• The 61 shot attempts the Caps allowed to the Flyers at 5-on-5 in Game 2 was not the most they allowed in any game this season, but they can see it from here.  Three times in the regular season the Caps allowed more shot attempts at fives: 62 on December 12^th against Tampa Bay (a 2-1 win), 64 on December 14^th against Pittsburgh (a 4-1 win), and 64 against Carolina on December 21^st (a 2-1 win).  Odd thing, that.
• Only two of 18 skaters having dressed for the Caps so far are “minus” players – Justin Williams and Evgeny Kuznetsov (both minus-1).  How long do you think that is going to last?
• It does speak to the need for the Caps’ second line to be heard from.  Through two games, the second line of Andre Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, and Williams is without a point.  Kuznetsov is shooting in some bad luck.  He leads the team in total shots on goal (11).  Burakovsky is not.  He has yet to record a shot on goal.

Now the teams head to Philadelphia.  Caps fans will be hoping that the team returns with a series win in their luggage.

Photo: Patrick McDermott/NHLI via Getty Images

Capitals vs. Flyers: Takeaways and Throwaways from Game 1

The Washington Capitals hit the Philadelphia Flyers so hard and so often last night that it left us without access to the Web or to any of our applications to do a post-game write-up.  But when life gives you lemons, you make lemonade, and the refreshing product (or so we hope) is a package of five takeaways and five throwaways from Game 1.

Takeaways…

-- The scoring lines had an interesting breakdown of shot attempts.  The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie had just three shot attempts at even strength (two for Ovechkin, one for Backstrom), but on the power play they combined for 14 shots attempts (nine by Ovechkin, three for Oshie, and two by Backstrom).  If the Caps keep getting looks like that on the man-advantage, the Flyers are going to have problems.

-- The second line, on the other hand, piled up the attempts at fives.  Evgeny Kuznetsov (7), Justin Williams (3), and Andre Burakovsky (2) combined for 12 shot attempts.  They did not get much power play action (five combined shot attempts), but if the second line can get their share of shot attempts against the bottom two pairs of Flyer defensemen, it could spell more trouble for the orange and black.

-- Two similar situations ended very differently and it might have been the difference in this game.  There was a point in the game when Mike Richards was flattened by a Brayden Schenn. Tom Wilson stepped in to express his displeasure. Richards jumped up and pushed Wilson away, avoiding what might have been a Flyer power play.  Later, when Wilson boarded Andy MacDonald with the Caps nursing a one-goal lead, there was no Flyer who stepped in to keep Simmons from getting in Wilson’s face.  Instead of a Flyer power play, the Caps got off with coincidental minors to Simmons (roughing) and Wilson (boarding), in addition to their respective fighting majors.  Three minutes later, the Caps scored an insurance goal.  That’s one of those “leadership” intangibles that does not show up in the numbers, except perhaps in the final score.

-- Marcus Johansson is expected to contribute offense, even as a third liner in this series.  But he showed he can contribute in a variety of ways, even when his own offense isn’t quite there.  Despite the fact that he had just one shot attempt in the game, it was his stripping Jakub Voracek of the puck just on the Flyers’ side of the red line that started the play that provided the insurance goal.  And do not discount that subtle little move on his part at the end of the play, when he drew  the puck back, pulling defenseman Brandon Manning just a little more out of the middle of the ice, creating a better lane for Jay Beagle to fill in, take Johansson’s pass, and snap the puck past goalie Steve Mason.  Johansson had the primary assist on both goals.

-- Shayne Gostisbehere is a gifted offensive player for a rookie defenseman.  But a rookie he is, and  he was caught in something of a no-man’s land after stepping out of the penalty box just as Marcus Johansson was stripping Jakub Voracek of the puck at center ice.  He had a decision to make in real time.  Head to the bench for a player to jump on, or break it off and fill in the middle, into which Jay Beagle was skating.  He continued to the bench, leaving a lot of open ice in the middle for Beagle to take advantage of, and that is precisely what Beagle did.  It was just one moment, but it might be something to watch for – Gostibehere’s decision making in the defensive side of the red line.

Throwaways…

-- This is the fifth time that the Caps and Flyers have faced one another in the postseason.  In the previous four, the Caps won Game 1 three times.  They lost two of those series (1989, 2008).  They won last night.  Don’t read anything into it.

-- Game 1 was the sixth straight home playoff game without a goal for Alex Ovechkin.  He has one goal in his last ten postseason games at Verizon Center.  Mount St. Helens was quiet, too...until it wasn’t.

-- Tom Wilson was either incredibly stupid for his boarding Andy MacDonald in the third period or incredibly brilliant for goading Wayne Simmonds into a roughing-fighting set of penalties that snuffed out what might have been a power play.  Split the difference.  He was incredibly lucky.  And that is not the sort of luck you want to count on.

-- John Carlson’s game-winning power play goal has been described in some quarters as being the product of a lucky bounce or two,  His shot hit both Chris VandeVelde and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare on its way past goalie Steve Mason.  Yeah, well, how many times has that “luck” been on the other side of the Caps in the postseason, starting with this goal that ever so lightly got enough of Rod Langway’s stick to elude goalie Bob Mason deep into a seventh game…

Ever since then, it seems that when the hockey gods ladle out luck in the soup line, the Caps are in the rest room. 

-- Caps fans seem quite confident after Game 1.  Put that nonsense away.  If time should teach anything to Caps fans, it is that every game is its own story.  What happens in today’s game might have absolutely no bearing on the next one, or the one after that.  Yes, the Flyers losing Sean Couturier for the series is quite a blow that could ripple through this series.  But don’t count on it.  Every game is its own story.

Photo: Patrick McDermott/NHLI via Getty Images

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, Capitals vs. Flyers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, here we are.  We are Dorothy putting the toe of our ruby slippers on the first stone of the Yellow Brick Road to the Stanley Cup.  We are Captain James Tiberius Kirk going where no one has gone before (yet) this season…the first game of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup playoffs.  OK, technically, there will have been games already played by the time the Washington Capitals an Philadelphia Flyers take the ice for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, but before they do, it is time to fill in the last frame of our conference prognostos…

Washington Capitals (56-18-8) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (41-27-14)

When the Philadelphia Flyers defeated the New York Islanders in Brooklyn last Sunday in the season finale, the win gave the Flyers 96 points for the season.  The Washington Capitals hit that points mark on March 1st, when they defeated the Penguins in Game 62 of an 82-game season.  That, in a nutshell, is the difference between these teams as they prepare to meet in the first round of the playoffs on Thursday night.  The Caps ran away from the field, the Flyers had to beat it back with a stick in the last six weeks.

You would think that the Caps, with a 24-standings point edge over the Flyers for the season, would be prohibitive favorites to beat the Flyers.  Well, lets’ hold off on that for a moment.  Why?  Well, because…

The Capitals have been here before

Going into the dim past is of dubious value when considering players whose professional careers extend back only so many years.  But the Caps have had bigger standings points edges over a playoff opponent and lost.  There was 1986, when the Caps went into the Patrick Division final against a New York Rangers team that finished 29 points behind the Caps in the regular season.  The Caps lost in six games.  There was the 2010 squad that finished 33 points ahead of the Montreal Canadiens that lost to the Habs in seven games in the conference quarterfinal.  Don’t say it can’t happen, because it can, and if there is a team to which it can happen, it is the Capitals.  But then again…

Here is why it won’t happen to them

• The Caps can beat you close.  They won 27 of 41 one-goal games, the .659 winning percentage being best in the league.
• They can beat you to a pulp.  They won 18 of 27 decisions by three or more goals, the second-best winning percentage in the league (.667), and they won more than 70 percent of multi-goal decisions (29-12).  
• They can win when out-shooting you, their 33 wins in 50 such games being the best winning percentage in the league (.660).  They can win when being out-shot, with 22 wins in 31 such games also being the best winning percentage in the league (.710).
• They can beat you from ahead, their 34 wins in 38 games when scoring first being the league’s top winning percentage (.895), and they can beat you from behind, the Caps being the only team in the league to win at least half of the games in which they allowed the first goal (22 of 44 instances).
• They can close you out, winning 37 of 38 games this season when taking a lead into the third period, their .974 winning percentage being second best in the league.  They can run you down, winning almost one in three games when trailing after two periods, the best winning percentage in the league.
• They can pound you, their 44-2-5 record when scoring three or more goals being fifth best in the league.  They can grind you, their winning percentage in games in which they scored two or fewer goals being best in the league.
• They can beat you when their power play is humming – 32-4-4 when they score at least one power play goal.  They can outlast you when it isn’t – 24-14-4 when they do not record a power play goal.
• They can kill your power supply, going 35-8-3 when shutting out an opponent’s power play.  They can overcome the instances when they don’t, going 21-10-5 when opponents managed to squeak one or two power play goals through (and only twice this season was it “two”).

There is no team in the league that can beat you in as many ways from as many directions as the Caps.  Shut one part of their game down, another rises up more often than not.

But then again…again...

• The Flyers were 16-6-3 in their last 25 games.  The Caps were 13-8-4 over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers averaged 2.96 goals per game over their last 25 games.  The Caps averaged 2.40 goals over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers averaged 32.7 shots on goal in their last 25 games.  The Caps averaged 30.7 shots on goal in their last 25 games.
• The Flyers were 20.2 percent on their power play over their last 25 games.  The Caps were at 18.6 percent on their power play over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers were 86.9 percent on their penalty kill over their last 25 games.  The Caps were 87.3 percent on their penalty kill over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers have a goal differential of plus-3 at 5-on-5 over their last 25 games.  The Caps have a goal differential of minus-1 at 5-on-5 over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers have a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall of 52.7 percent over their last 25 games.  The Caps have a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall of 52.4 percent over their last 25 games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Yeah, yeah…but the Caps have…Alex Ovechkin

Since he came into the league, Alex Ovechkin has seven 50-goal seasons.  If you add up all the other 50-goal seasons among players active in 2015-2016, you get a total of eight, and only Steven Stamkos has done it twice.  In terms of total goals, he has a lead of more than 160 goals over his closest pursuer (525 to 361 for Jarome Iginla).  He is a force of nature when it comes to goal scoring.  But to the point at hand, Ovechkin has two goals in four games against the Flyers this season, one goal in each of the two most recent games played between the clubs.  He had a rough patch as the season was winding down, scoring just three goals in 15 games over four weeks ending on March 28th.  But he picked up the pace in a big way in the season’s last two weeks, scoring seven goals in his last six games, including a hat trick in his last game of the season, giving him that seventh 50-goal season.  If this is an indicator of a hot streak, it is coming at the right time.

But the Flyers have…Claude Giroux

Not so long ago, Claude Giroux was touted as the best player in the world.  OK, so it was his coach doing the touting, but the point is that Giroux was once on a very short list of the very best players in hockey.  Since that season in which his coach provided his flattering commentary, one in which he set career highs in goals, assists, and points, Giroux’ performance numbers have fallen off.  Part of that is undoubtedly tied to the general contraction of scoring in the NHL, part of it might be a product of having less talented teammates.  But Giroux’ numbers over the past few years do not argue for his inclusion in the discussion of the league’s (or the world’s) “best” player. 

This is not to say he lacks talent, is in decline, or cannot influence the direction of a game or a playoff series.  He remains a gifted player (he did finish in the top-20 in both assists and points this season).  But if anything, his ten-game segments suggest a bit of a dropping off in his production.  In his fifth segment this season (Games 41-50) he went 4-10-15, plus five.  In the segments that followed he was 1-9-10, minus-5; 4-4-8, plus-3; and he was 1-4-5, minus-2 in his last eight games (he played 78 games this season).  Whether he can improve on this in a seven-game series could say a lot about the Flyers’ chances.

Then there is the season series…

The Caps won two games, the Flyers won two games.  Even-Steven, right?  Well, maybe not.  Here is how the series unfolded:

The Caps won two games in regulation, with teams playing 5-on-5 and with the normal deployment on power plays.  On the other hand, the Flyers won one game at 3-on-3 and another in a Gimmick, neither of which we will see in the postseason (unless things go haywire and there are a lot of players in the penalty boxes to create a 3-on-3 situation). 

Drill down, and it does not get better for the Flyers.  The Caps won the 5-on-5 possession battle in all four games and posted a Corsi-for of 52.4 percent over the series.  The goal scoring tracked with this as well, the Caps winning three of the four games in goal differential at 5-on-5 and tying the Flyers in the other, winning overall by a 9-5 margin (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

But aren’t you leaving the most important players out?

Oh, the goalies.  The Caps have this theme that permeates their entire playoff history – the “hot goalie.”  Just about any series you look at back through time, you could say the “hot goalie” did them in, whether it was Kelly Hrudey saving eight thousand shots in a four-overtime game on Easter Morning way back when, or Jaroslav Halak channeling his inner Patrick Roy over a three-game stretch a few years back to send the Caps packing, there has always been the “hot goalie.”

Well, what about that?  Is Steve Mason that “hot goalie?”  If you’re trying to prognosticate an answer to this question, it depends on what you look at.  If you look at his last 17 appearances of the regular season, over which he was 10-4-3, 2.14, .924, with one shutout, you might say he could be that “hot goalie.”  Then again, there is the fact that in his last four appearances he was 1-2-1, 2.98, .889.

Then again, there are the shots.  Oh, the shots.  It seems that “30” is a magic number.  When Mason faced fewer than 30 shots in a game this season he was 12-4-4, 2.18, .906, with three shutouts in 22 such games.  In the 32 games in which he faced more than 30 shots, he was 11-15-6, 2.72, .922, with one shutout.  He saved a higher percentage of shots, but he lost quite a bit more often.

And there is the season series.  In it, Mason faced the Capitals three times.  He was all over the place, but (ominously for the Caps) he did get better with time.  He stopped 27 of 32 shots in a 5-2 loss on November 12th.  He followed that up with a 27-save performance on 30 shots in a 3-2 loss on February 7th.  In his most recent appearance, he stopped 29 of 30 shots in a 2-1 Gimmick win on March 30th.  Overall, he was 1-2-0, 2.94, .902 in the three games.

Braden Holtby’s profile is considerably different.  Holtby’s season overall has a much broader sweep to it.  He started slowly in terms of personal efficiency, his save percentage over his first ten games a decent, but not extraordinary .916.  He enjoyed low shot volumes (24.9 per game) that kept his goals against average at a very good 2.12.  The save percentage jumped spectacularly over his next two ten-game segments (.937, .947), and his GAA plummeted (1.79, 1.66). 

It was at that point that he hit his rough patch of the season, posting a 2.73 goals against average and a .910 save percentage in his fourth ten-game segment, and then a 2.83 GAA and a .903 save percentage in his fifth ten-game segment.  He recovered nicely from there, going 2.21/.915 in his sixth segment, then going 2.11/.917 in his last six games.

If there is a shot threshold for Holtby, it certainly is an odd one.  Holtby was 38-5-7, 2.14, .928, with two shutouts in 50 games in which he faced more than 20 shots.  In 16 games in which he faced 20 or fewer shots he was 10-4-0, 2.43, .894, with one shutout.  Even if you remove the games in which he was relieved by Philipp Grubauer, his save percentage was only .909 over 12 full games facing 20 or fewer shots.  Whether that is a product of low-chance shots not getting through or the goaltender losing focus, or sunspots in low shot volume games, Holtby does not suffer when the workload is heavy.

Holtby played every minute of the season series against the Flyers, going 2-0-2, 2.21, .926 over the four games.  And, like Mason, his performance improved with time.  In his first game, back on November 12th, he stopped 18 of 20 shots in a 5-2 win.  He stopped 28 of 32 shots in a 4-3 overtime loss in January, but his last two performances – a 33-save effort in a 3-2 win in February and a 33-save performance in a 2-1 Gimmick loss in late March – were superb.

Is there an “X-Factor” for either team?

For the Flyers, the obvious candidate here is defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere.  Despite the fact that he finished 11th in games played among rookie defensemen (64), “Ghost” finished first among that cohort by a wide margin in goals (17, to nine for St. Louis Colton Parayko), assists (29, to 24 for Parayko and Vancouver’s Ben Hutton), points (46, to 22 for Parayko), power play goals (eight, to three for Parayko), power play points (22, to seven for Parayko, Hutton, and Carolina’s Noah Hanafin), and overtime goals (the only four OT goals scored by a rookie defenseman this season).

The question about Gostisbehere is, after 64 games of action averaging more than 20 minutes a game for a defenseman of slight stature, if he is slowing down from the grind.  Consider that he had a 13-game streak without a goal before he potted a power play goal against the New York Islanders in the season finale last Sunday.  He does have six assists in those same final 14 games, so he is continuing to contribute.  On the other hand, he was a minus-9 over 11 games before going plus-5 in his last three contests.  If, however, he is getting a second wind, he could present problems for the Capitals.  Gostisbehere was 0-3-3, even, in three games against the Caps this season.

For the Capitals, it might be a guy who appeared in only two games in the season series.  Jay Beagle missed 25 games this season, including the middle two games of the season series between these two teams.  But in those two games Beagle won 22 of 33 faceoffs (66.7 percent).  Faceoffs are generally considered one of those mundane tasks that do not have much of an effect on games…until you lose a critical one.  Like the one the Caps lost that led directly to the game-winning, series-clinching overtime goal in last year’s playoff series against the New York Rangers.  Beagle and Mike Richards led Caps forwards still with the team in shorthanded ice time.  Beagle taking draws in his own end on the Flyer power play is a responsibility that should not be held as insignificant in this series.

In the end…

The Flyers went 15-5-3 in their last 23 games for 33 standings points.  On the other hand, the Caps had 60 23-game windows for the season, if you look at them on a rolling basis.  Of those 60 rolling windows, 11 of them failed to reach the 33-point mark, nine of them coming at the end of the season when the Caps had clinched their position in the standings. 

It is in that sense that we look at the Flyers’ end-of-year performance as a “ceiling” and that of the Caps as a “floor.”  It leaves us thinking that any argument making the Flyers a favorite in this series is misguided.  The Caps have advantages of depth of skill, goaltending, and they performed better overall in head-to-head matchups with the Flyers at even strength.  Even with their late-season swoon, the Caps underlying numbers appear to be improving.  The Flyers can make a series of this, perhaps only if they make it a mud-wrestling contest in which they can goad the Caps into taking more penalties (they had 17 power plays to 10 for the Caps in the regular season).  Still, actually winning it is a hill too high to climb for the Flyers.

Capitals in 6

Photo: Nick Wass/Associated Press 

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You... The NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Prognostos

The Peerless is not just paying attention to the I-95 first-round playoff series between the Washington Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers (about which we will have some things to say in a later piece).  We are concerned with teams that the Caps might play down the road.  And with that, we take a peek at the other Eastern Conference series that start this week.  On to the prognostos…

Pittsburgh Penguins (48-26-8) vs. New York Rangers (46-27-9)

Penguins: The Penguins are the “it” team of these playoffs, the choice of the hockey punditocracy to emerge from the Eastern Conference for the Stanley Cup final.  They might have a point.  The Pens finished the regular season with a 14-2-0 record, outscoring their opponents by a 43-26 margin at 5-on-5 and posting a Corsi-for at fives of 55.3 percent.  The only thing that would seem to be an obstacle is their goaltending situation, made uncertain with a concussion suffered by Marc-Andre Fleury that kept him out of the last five regular season games and a suspected concussion sustained by Matt Murray in a collision with Philadelphia’s Brayden Schenn in the first period of the regular season finale last Saturday.  The Pens would like to get forward Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Olli Maatta back from injuries, but frankly, their absences have not been keenly felt, and that should put an extra layer of concern on potential rivals when they do return.

Wild Card Player:  Patric Hornqvist

Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang have been playing at a high level for weeks now, and it would be reasonable to expect they will continue their high level of play. And it would be tempting to think of Phil Kessel as that next level of player to watch.  But we will go down another level and think of Patric Hornqvist.  The eight-year veteran is one of the most reliable producers most folks don’t think of.  He finished the season with 22 goals, making him six-for-six in full NHL seasons with 20 or more goals (not counting his 28-game rookie season in Nashville or the abbreviated 2012-2013 season).  He was streaky over the latter stages of the season, though, recording one goal in 13 games before a four-game goal streak and ending without a goal in his last two games.  If he is a more reliable, more consistent contributor that he was closing the season, the Pens will be a load for any opponent.

Rangers: The Blueshirts limped to the finish, going 9-7-3 since the beginning of March.  That they did as well as that is something of a surprise given the state of their possession numbers – awful.  Not an especially efficient team in the shot attempt statistics over the course of the season, they were in a bad place over those last 19 games, posting a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 of 46.3 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  That their goal differential at fives was not worse (minus-2) is more a testament to their goaltending than their ability to drive play.  That means that once more, this is a team that is going to go only so far as goalie Henrik Lundqvist can carry them.  And whatever Lundqvist’s numbers are in the regular season – 21st in GAA (2.48), 13th in save percentage (.920) among goalies with 2,000 or more minutes played – he is a big time postseason goalie. Over the last five postseasons he is one of only two goaltenders to appear in at least 20 games, post a goals against average under 2.25 (2.06), a save percentage of at least .925 (.929), and record more than five shutouts (6).  Los Angeles’ Jonathan Quick is the other.

Wild Card Player: Kevin Hayes

Kevin Hayes was something of a revelation in his 2014-2015 rookie season.  He finished sixth among NHL rookies in goals (17) and fifth in points (45).  But he fell victim to the dreaded “sophomore slump” in 2015-2016.  He fell to 14 goals and 36 points, and his effort was questioned by his head coach, leading to a benching during the season.  He closed the season fairly well with a pair of goals and a pair of assists in his last six games.  However, if the Rangers are to be more than simply Henrik Lundqvist, Hayes is going to have to play his role as a secondary scorer.

In the end… 

Both teams come into this series banged up.  The Pens have Evgeni Malkin, Olli Maatta, and two goaltenders nursing injuries.  They could start the series with Jeff Zatkoff in goal and Tristan Jarry on the bench.  The Rangers have Eric Staal, Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, and Mats Zuccarello dinged up.  New York will not win a track meet with the Penguins.  They lack the possession discipline and the depth of skill to do that over seven games.  Unless Henrik Lundqvist plays the series of his life, it is hard to reason a way through to a Ranger win, unless Fleury and Murray are unable to tend goal for four or more games of this series.  Lundqvist might steal one, but more than that is a lot to ask for.

Pittsburgh in 5

*****

Florida Panthers (47-26-9) vs. New York Islanders (45-27-10)

Panthers: The Panthers came into the 2015-2016 season as the oldest team in the league.  Small wonder, considering that of all the players lacing up their skates for the postseason, Jaromir Jagr will be the oldest skater, at 44 years of age, by more than four years (the Rangers’ Dan Boyle is next in line).  And there is 37-year old Roberto Luongo, who will be the oldest starting goalie in the postseason, almost three years older than Henrik Lundqvist.  Don’t leave out defenseman Willie Mitchell, either, who will be the fourth-oldest defenseman to take the ice in the postseason (he will turn 39 before the end of this month).  Not that it seemed to slow down the Panthers in the home stretch.  They went 7-2-0 in their last nine games, but that might not be quite as impressive as it looks.  Both losses came to teams out of the playoff mix (Toronto and Ottawa, both by multi-goal margins), and their last five wins came against also-rans.

Wild Card Player: Nick Bjugstad

Nick Bjugstad missed 15 games at mid-season to an upper-body injury.  He still managed 15 goals (seventh on the club) and 34 points (eighth), although on a per-game basis, his goal scoring was below his performance in 2014-2015 (24 goals in 72 games).  Since March 7th, Bjugstad is 5-7-12 in 17 games, a respectable level of scoring for a player getting about 15 minutes a game.  But where his presence might be felt most is on the Panther power play, on which he finished the season second in goals (6) and points (15).  He will have to raise his game at evens to give the Panthers a good chance to advance.

Islanders: For a while there, it looked as if the Islanders were going to play themselves out of the postseason.  From March 9th through the 25th they lost seven of nine games (2-6-1), and they were just two points ahead of Philadelphia for the last playoff spot.  They turned things around by going 6-2-1 in their last nine games to secure the first wild card spot.  But this is a team that has major health issues at the most important position in the postseason.  Goalies Jaroslav Halak and Jean-Francois Berube both are listed as day-to-day with lower body injuries, Halak having been out of the lineup since March 8th.  It might come down to which Thomas Greiss shows up in goal.  Will it be the one who was 7-0-1, 2.24, .925 over ten appearances over a two-months stretch from early January to early March?  Or perhaps the one who went 1-5-1, 3.17, .902 just after that.  Could it be the one who won his last four starts and went 4-0-0, 2.04, .931 in his last five appearances of the regular season?  Halak was reported skating last Thursday, but he still appears weeks away from a return. 

Wild Card Player: Josh Bailey

With Anders Lee out with a fractured leg, defenseman Travis Hamonic iffy for the first round, and the goaltender situation in uncertain condition, the Islanders have to get support from skaters other than John Tavares and Kyle Okposo.  The light shines on Josh Bailey, who just has not seemed to put together the sort of season one might have expected from a ninth-overall draft pick in 2008.  He is the sort who can provide a reliable 35-point pace per 82 games, but he has not had that breakout year, and he is not an especially impressive possession player.  He will have to raise his game in this series for the Islanders to have hopes of advancing.

In the end…

This is the “possession challenged” series, the only one of the eight that will feature both teams under 50 percent for the season in score-adjusted Corsi-for at 5-on-5.  This series is the aged (Florida) versus the infirm (the banged-up Islanders).  It could turn on whether Jaromir Jagr has the legs to get through a seven-game series or John Tavares’ shoulders are strong enough to bear the weight of what the team needs with so many key players injured.  We think it will come down to the Panthers having better goaltending than the Islanders can cobble together.

Panthers in 6

*****

Tampa Bay Lightning (46-31-5) vs. Detroit Red Wings (41-30-11)

Lightning: There is no player’s absence that will be more keenly felt in this postseason than that of Steven Stamkos’ absence from the Lightning due to a blood clot in his arm that required surgery that will keep him out from one to three months.  Stamkos had a hand in almost 30 percent of the Lightning’s 224 goals scored this season (36 goals, 28 assists).  They still have Nikita Kucherov as a 30-goal scorer, but the goal scoring drops of quite a bit from there (to Ondrej Palat with 16).  That is going to put a lot of the load on goalie Ben Bishop.  He seems entirely capable of carrying that load.  In his last 18 appearances in the regular season he was 13-4-1, 1.87, .937, with four shutouts.  It might be the sort of finishing kick that will put him squarely in the conversation over the Vezina Trophy.  But for now, he might have to be at least that good with the Lightning’s most effective offensive weapon on the bench.

Wild Card Player: Vladislav Namestnikov

Tyler Johnson was given a rough ride into the end boards by Montreal defenseman Greg Pateryn in the Lightning’s season finale on Saturday.  Listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury, if he is absent for any length of time to start the first round series, the scoring burden that is already heavier on other players will fall further down the roster.  A player like Vladislav Namestnikov will have to step up in a way he did not in last year’s postseason when he recorded one point (an assist) in 12 playoff games.  His seven minutes and change in average ice time probably had something to do with his meager production, but he averaged more than 14 minutes of ice time in 80 games this season.  He tied for fourth in goals (14) and was seventh in points (35).  He was an efficient shooter this season (13.2 percent), but it came on just 106 shots (1.33 per game). The holes in the lineup might mean he has to pull the trigger more often against the Red Wings.

Red Wings:  Sun is bright, water is wet, Red Wings make the playoffs.  These are what amount to physical constants, the Red Wings having reached the postseason for the 25th consecutive season.  The last time they finished a regular season without qualifying for the playoffs, a song titled “Black Velvet” topped the Billboard singles charts (we had to look that up).  This Red Wings team is unlike most of their predecessors.  They don’t score a lot (23rd in scoring offense), they are a middle-of-the-road team defensively (17th in scoring defense), but they are a decent puck possession team (ninth in score-adjusted Corsi-for at 5-on-5).  It is a squad that lacks top-end production.  Detroit has no player with more than 50 points (Henrik Zetterberg has 50); they do not have a player with as many as 25 goals (rookie Dylan Larkin has 23).  And, they are not exactly storming into the postseason, wrapping up the regular season with a 9-10-0 record over their last 19 games.

Wild Card Player: Tomas Tatar

Tomas Tatar is an odd sort of player, not for his performance, but for the fact that it does not seem to get much attention.  Over the past three seasons he scored goals at a 20-plus pace per 82 games, he averaged more than half a point per game, he was a solid plus-22, and his power play production was very good (18 goals, 22 assists).  Of his 69 goals scored over those three seasons, 13 were game-winners.  He has been just a solid player that is almost the definition of one who “flies under the radar.”  His production did tail off at the end of the regular season, though, going 1-2-3, plus-1 over his last 11 games with just two power play points (both assists).  If Detroit is to advance, they will need Tatar to return to his quiet, but solid level of performance.

In the end…

Maybe the Red Wings think of this as a “Win It for Pavel” sort of postseason, what with Pavel Datsyuk indicating that he will return to Russia after the playoffs.  But frankly, that is not enough for a team that just doesn’t have same sort of depth and skill that Red Wing fans are used to.  But for the fact that the Lightning come into this series lacking their best offensive player and are banged up at a number of other positions, this series would not be close.  It will be, just not close enough for Detroit to advance.

Lightning in 7