The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 34: Capitals at Rangers, December 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh of a brief stop at home after a three-game road trip, head back on the road in the last contest before the Christmas break.  The Caps will head to New York, where they hope to leave the Rangers with a stocking full of coal or, failing that, beating them to get some separation over them in the Metropolitan Division standings.

The Rangers come into this contest on a roll, but it might be something less than it seems.  Winners of six straight coming into this game, the Rangers started their good fortune with an overtime win over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  After that, however, the competition was a bit underwhelming.  They beat a Vancouver team for the Canucks’ fourth straight loss in a streak that would reach five games. Then the Rangers beat Edmonton, Calgary, and Carolina twice in a home-and-home set.  None of those teams seem likely to compete for playoff spots in the second half of the season.  Nevertheless, the Caps are just two points ahead of the Rangers, a team that holds two games in hand over Washington.

In their six-game winning streak, 11 different players shared in the 19 goals scored, Rick Nash and J.T. Miller leading the club with three apiece.  Seventeen different players recorded points in the six-game streak, including goalie Henrik Lundqvist, who notched an assist on a Derek Stepan goal in the Rangers’ 5-2 win over Calgary on December 16^th.

Nash is tied for the team lead in points over the six-game winning streak (3-3-6).  With 33 points in 31 games to date, Nash is on a pace to finish the season averaging more than a point per game for the first time since he had 79 points in 78 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2008-2009.  His 20 goals puts him on a pace to finish with a career high – 53 goals – that would shatter his high-water mark of 41 goals in 2003-2004 with Columbus.  Nash is 9-8-17 in 15 career games against Washington.

Mats Zuccarello is the other Ranger with six points in the winning streak (2-4-6).  It follows a dry stretch in which he had only two points in nine games in which the Rangers were stumbling at 4-4-1.  Zuccarello, who established a career high in goals last season with 19, is on roughly the same pace so far this season, his six goals in 29 games working out to a 17-goal pace.  He is 0-1-1 in six career games against the Caps.

Ryan McDonagh managed only six assists without a goal in his first 20 games this season, a start that was interrupted by an 11-game absence with a shoulder injury.  In the Rangers’ six-game winning streak he has scored his first two goals of the season and tacked on a pair of assists for good measure.  He is back to logging big minutes, though.  Since returning from his injury on November 28^th he has not played less than 21 minutes in any game and has topped 25 minutes twice in ten contests.  McDonagh is 1-7-8 in 13 career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Is Martin St. Louis starting to slow down?  With 23 points in 31 games, St. Louis is on a pace for 61 points.  It would be his lowest point total for a full season since he finished with 61 points in 80 games in 2005-2006.  Although he has ten goals this season, the only other Ranger in double digits, he does not have one in his last seven games.

2.  The Rangers will be the second straight opponent that the Caps will find difficult to score on in the first period.  The Rangers are tied with Ottawa (who the Caps defeated, 2-1, on Monday) for allowing the third fewest first period goals this season (21), behind Nashville (20) and St. Louis (19).

3.  The Rangers have played 31 games, and nine of them ended in shutouts.  They have eight of them, while having been shutout once themselves.

4.  Only two teams have taken fewer minor penalties than the Rangers (102) – Nashville (98) and Carolina (97).

5.  Once upon a time, the Rangers were known as a shot-blocking machine.  Not so much these days.  They rank 24^th overall in blocked shots (434).

1.  Washington has the second-best ratio of takeaways to giveaways on the road in the league (1.21:1).  Only Toronto is better (1.28:1).

2.  After scoring twice in the second period against Ottawa on Monday night, there are only three teams having scored more second period goals than the Caps (37) – Dallas (40), Anaheim (40), and Toronto (43).

3.  Only Edmonton has won fewer games (none) when trailing after the first period than the Caps (1).

4.  With 157 shots on goal in 33 games, Alex Ovechkin is on a pace for 390 shots, which would be his highest season total since setting a career high 528 shots in 2008-2009.

5.  On the Caps’ 7-0-2 run they have a 2-0-2 record in one-goal games, but they remain stuck in 22^nd place in winning percentage in one-goal games for the season (.400/8-6-6).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Henrik Lundqvist

One is not accustomed to seeing Henrik Lundqvist in 20^th place among goaltenders in goals against average (2.46) or 28^th in save percentage (.912).  Both would be career worsts for Lundqvist if sustained over the entire season.  Seven times in 23 full games this season he had a save percentage under .900.  He has been better lately, though.  In his last seven appearances he is 6-1-0, 2.11, .914, with one shutout.  As he closes in on 600 games played (this will be his 599^th if he gets the call) and at 32 years of age, is it a blip, or a sign of a slowdown?  He is 16-8-3, 2.55, .908, with four shutouts in 27 career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Troy Brouwer

Troy Brouwer is not counted on to be a scorer on the order of an Alex Ovechkin, but he is expected to contribute the secondary scoring that makes clubs successful.  And that makes his recent play a bit odd.  He has four goals in his last seven games, two of them in his last four games.  In those last four games, though, he has only four shots on goal and was held without a shot on goal against Ottawa on Monday night.  It was the second time in five games he did not record a shot on goal.  The second line already has shooting issues in the person of Marcus Johansson.  One hopes it is not contagious.  Brouwer is 2-1-3, minus-1, in 13 career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

Now the schedule ramps up in terms of quality of competition.  The Caps get the Rangers, Penguins, and islanders to close the 2014 portion of the season, all on the road.  The Caps have the best road record in the Eastern Conference (standings points earned), so if there is a time to face these three teams on the road in succession, now is the time.  In the Rangers the Caps will be facing a decent team on their own rink, but hardly a great one (10-5-3, seventh in the East in home standings points earned.  It should make for an interesting game, but we know how this ends.

Capitals 4 – Rangers 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 33: Senators at Capitals, December 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals begin Christmas week by returning home to Verizon Center after a three-game road trip on which they went 2-0-1.  The Ottawa Senators come to town to provide the competition in what will be the Capitals’ ninth consecutive game against an Eastern Conference opponent.

The Senators come to Verizon Center takinga meandering path through their schedule.  After a five-game losing streak (0-4-1) coming out of the Thanksgiving break, the Senators are 4-2-1 in their last seven games.  It is a stretch in which they found it in themselves to beat the Bruins in Boston, 3-2 in a Gimmick on December 13^th, but also had it in them to lose to the Buffalo Sabres, 5-4 in another trick shot competition.

Leading the Senators in scoring over their recent 4-2-1 run is Mike Zibanejad with four goals and four assists.  He has two multi-point games in those seven contests, including a four-point (2-2-4) game in Ottawa’s 4-3 overtime win over the Vancouver Canucks on December 7^th.  The eight points in seven games almost doubles Zibanejad’s total for the season (9-8-17).  He is 2-1-3 in seven career games against the Caps.

Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan are right behind Zibanejad in scoring, both with seven points.  Each has done in an unexpected way.  Turris, who is tied for the team lead in assists, has three goals to contribute to his seven points, giving him seven goals on the season.  Ryan, who has four 30-goal seasons on his resume, has five assists among his seven points in the last seven games.  Together they comprise two of the three 20-point players on the Ottawa roster.

Erik Karlsson is the third 20-point player, and his 1-3-4 scoring line in the last seven games leads the team among defensemen.  Karlsson is off his scoring pace of his previous two full seasons (78 points in 2011-2012 and 74 points last season), scoring at a 57-point pace (7-16-23 in 33 games), but he is still sixth among league defensemen in scoring.  He is 2-12-14 in 15 career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  Ottawa has been difficult to score against in the first periods of games this season.  With 21 goals allowed, only two teams – Nashville (20) and St. Louis (19) – have allowed fewer.

2.  It is probably a good thing that the Senators are as difficult to score on in the first period as they are.  Ottawa has the worst record in the league when scoring first (7-7-5) and are tied for the third worst winning percentage when leading after the first period (.444/4-3-2).

3.  The Caps have had trouble getting power play opportunities on the road.  Not so the Senators.  Ottawa has had the third highest number of man advantages on the road this season (62), behind only Chicago (66) and Anaheim (70).

4.  On the other hand, Ottawa has endured the second highest number of shorthanded situations on the road this season (69), behind only the New Jersey Devils (84).

5.  Either the folks in Ottawa are tough scorers, or the Senators are an ornery road team.  Only Anaheim has been credited with more hits on the road (518) than the Senators (512).

1.  In the Caps’ recent 6-0-2 run they have outscored opponents by a 27-15 margin.

2.  Special teams are not especially special in the 6-0-2 stretch, but they have been alright.  The power play is 4-fo-r24 (16.7 percent), while the penalty killers are 18-for-21 (85.7 percent), for a special teams index of 102.4.

3.  Braden Holtby has played every minute of the last eight games, going 6-0-2, 1.84, .934, and one shutout.

4.  The Caps have four ten-goal scorers on the roster – Alex Ovechkin (15), Nicklas Backstrom (10), Joel Ward (10), and Troy Brouwer (10).  They are one of four teams tied for the league lead in ten-goal scorers (Anaheim, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay).

5.  Last season the Caps had only 16 of 35 skaters finish “even” or better on the plus-minus scale.  So far this season it is 17 of 22 skaters.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Craig Anderson

Craig Anderson, the Senators’ nominal number one goaltender, has some pretty good overall numbers so far this season, a 2.43 goals against average and a .930 save percentage.  He did, however, stumble over a ten-game stretch over the 30 days from November 11^th through December 11^th (2-6-2, 3.28, .904).  He seems to be righting himself, winning his last two decisions over New Jersey and Anaheim, allowing only two goals on 68 shots and shutting out the Devils.  Robin Lehner got the most recent start for the Senators, a 4-1 loss to Montreal, so Anderson would appear to be the go-to guy here.  He is 11-5-1, 2.29, .928 with two shutouts against Washington in his career.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

With the way he started the season, one might have thought Marcus Johansson would be among those ten-goal scorers for the Caps.  As it is, though, he has nine, none in his last ten games and only one in his last 17 contests after potting eight in his first 15 games.  His shooting, the frequency of which has been an issue in his career, has once more dried up.  In those first 15 games he recorded 37 shots on goal and was held without a shot on goal only twice.  In his last 17 games he has 24 shots on goal and has been held without one eight times.  Getting the second line going means, in large part, getting Johansson going, or at least more closely resembling the player of the first 15 games.  He is 2-2-4, minus-2 in 13 career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

This will be the first of a back-to-back set of games for the Caps to start the week (they face the Rangers in New York tomorrow night).  In five previous back-to-backs this season the Caps have won the opening game three times and have, in fact, alternated wins and losses in those first games.  Their most recent opening game in a back-to-back was a win, a 5-2 win over the New York Islanders on November 28^th.  Given the pattern, that does not bode well for the Caps in this game, but when on a streak, bet the streak.

Capitals 3 – Senators 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 11

Week 11 made it three winning weeks in a row for the Washington Capitals.  The 2-0-1 record for the week gave the Capitals a 6-0-2 record over their last eight games, the 14 standings points in eight games being their best eight-game stretch since they won eight straight games from April 2 -16, 2013.  It was a very good week.

Record: 2-0-1

Not only did the Caps gain standings points in each of the three games for the week, they did it entirely on the road.  They are now 5-0-1 in their last six road games dating back to a 6-2 loss in Toronto on November 29^th, and their ten road wins for the season are tied for the top spot in the Eastern Conference (with the New York Islanders).  Their 10-5-2 road record is the best in the Conference in standings points earned.

“Uh, cuz?”

Well, if it isn’t Cheerless…it’s been a while.  You have something to say?

“Yeah…the Caps are six games over .500 for the first time this season, in Game 32.  Last year they reached six games over .500 in Game 33 (18-12-3) by winning their fourth game in five contests.  It’s not as if we haven’t seen this before.”

Offense:  3.33/game (season: 2.94/game; rank: 8th)

It was a good week in the offensive end, especially given that two of the three teams the Caps played were division rivals looking to jump up in the standings at the Caps’ expense.  Eight players shared in the ten goals scored for the week, two apiece from Nicklas Backstrom and Troy Brouwer.  There were 13 players sharing in the points overall, Backstrom going 1-2-3 against the Devils in the last game of the week to give him four points and the team lead in Week 11. What was noteworthy were the multi-point games.  Eric Fehr, Jason Chimera, Karl Alzner, and Michael Latta all recorded their first multi-point games of the season in the 5-4 overtime win over Columbus.  For Latta it was his first career multi-point game. Jay Beagle recorded his first multi-point game of the season (two assists) in the 4-0 win over New Jersey to end the week.

“Hey, are you forgetting something, cuz?”

We were getting to that, Cheerless.  What the Caps could not do this week was solve Roberto Lunogo at even strength.  In the Caps’ 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Florida Panthers to start the week, Washington managed only a power play goal (Brouwer) before heading to the trick shot competition.  And a historic on it was.  Twenty rounds, a league record.  The Caps doubled their shootout goal total for the season (from five to ten).  And still, they came up one short, having gone through the entire roster and around again (Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin had two bites of the apple, Ovechkin getting the only goal on four shots).  If there were highlights (and there were), they would include Brooks Orpik scoring on his first career shootout attempt in 733 career games.  John Carlson scored on his first shot attempt in 346 career games.  Joel Ward scored his first career shootout goal.  It was a historic night.

Defense: 1.67/game (season: 2.56/game; rank: 13th)

Caps fans would have to like the week the defense had overall.  Washington allowed only 128 shot attempts for the week, and the progression from start to finish was: 51-41-36.  Only twice in nine regulation periods did the Caps allow more than ten shots on goal.  Granted, the three opponents the Caps faced are bottom-third teams in scoring offense, but this still had to be the way you would draw it up.  This might have been the best part; the Caps showed they could play a grinding game and come out well.  In all three games the Caps and their opponents combined for Corsi events per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 below 100.0 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  For the season, there are only two teams averaging fewer than 100 combined events at 5-on-5: New Jersey (98.1) and Detroit (98.0).

Goaltending: 1.62 GAA / .934 SV / 1 shutout (season: 2.49 / .908 / 2 SO)

Once more, Braden Holtby got every minute of goaltending time for the week, the three starts he took bringing his consecutive starts streak to nine and his consecutive appearances streak to 15 (he played 20 minutes in relief of Justin Peters in a 6-2 loss to Toronto on November 29^th).  Holtby was especially effective in the first period (.947 save percentage) and second period (.941) of games, although he was nicked for two goals on 15 shots against Columbus, the only period for the week in which he allowed as many as two goals.  Both of those goals came on power plays, and…

“cough, cough”

What is it, Cheerless?

“Those two power play goals, cuz.  It was the first time in seven games that he allowed more than one power play goal, but it was the third time in 11 games that he did so after not allowing more than one in his first 15 appearances.”

Still, Holtby continues to climb in the goaltender rankings. He is now 15^th in goals against average (2.29) and 19^th in save percentage (.917).  Among goaltenders appearing in at least 15 games, Holtby is now 14^th in save percentage at even strength. 

“Yeah, and he is 22^nd in that same group of goaltenders in save percentage when facing an opponent’s power play.”

You’re on a roll this morning, aren’t you, Cheerless?

“It’s a gift.”

Beat the after-Christmas rush, and return it now.

Power Play: 1-for-8 / 12.5 percent (season: 25.3 percent; rank: 2nd) 

It was a quiet week for the Caps on the man advantage.  The 12.5 percent conversion rate is the lowest for the club since Week 6 (11.1 percent on 1-for-9) and the second lowest of the season.  It was an efficient power play in one respect, recording 16 shots on goal in 14:49 of power play time.  Alex Ovechkin recorded six of those shots in 13:06 of power play time, but he failed to connect on any of them.  As it was eight players shared the 16 shots on goal, Troy Brouwer the only one to light the lamp on the first of two power play shots on goal for the week.

The Caps scored their power play goal against Florida on just two opportunities, the 15^th time this season that the Caps had two or fewer power play opportunities (they are 29^th in total opportunities: 91).  The Caps had three opportunities in each of the last two games of the week, the first time this season that the Caps had three or more opportunities in consecutive games without scoring a power play goal.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-9 / 77.8 percent (season: 77.1 percent; rank: 27th)

This was the third week in the last four in which the Caps allowed two or more power play goals.  They did this despite limiting their three opponents to just 11 shots on goal in 14:51 of power play ice time.  One might use the “bad dream” defense here, that the Caps suffered both goal in a 3:09 span of the second period of their 5-4 overtime win over the Columbus Blue Jackets (it was a bad dream in an otherwise happy ending of a game).

Still, this is not a particularly good trend for the Caps.  Since going a perfect 5-for-5 in penalty killing in Week 7, Washington is just 23-for-34 in the four weeks since (67.6 percent).  The fact that the Caps have a shorthanded save percentage of .825 overall might be a cause for some concern.  So might the fact that the Caps are about to play four more Eastern Conference teams, three of which are in the top half of the league power play rankings. 

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 9-3 / plus-6 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.03; rank: 15th)

The Caps won the even strength goal battle in two games in Week 11, and they won both games.  In those two games they had a whopping 20.9 percent shooting percentage (9-for-43) while holding Columbus and New Jersey to 2-for-37 shooting (5.4 percent).  It was not even that bad against Florida in the game to open the week, the Caps outshot by a 26-21 margin at evens but being outscored by just a 1-0 margin.  In a sense, it was the club’s effectiveness in limiting the Panthers at evens that allowed the Caps to get to extra time and keep the standings points streak going.

Faceoffs: 80-for-170 / 47.1 percent (season: 50.7 percent; rank: 12th)

It was not the best of weeks for the Caps in the circle.  They lost two of three games, and they lost all three zones in Week 11 (offensive: 47.1 percent; defensive: 48.1 percent; neutral: 46.3 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom had an uncharacteristically weak week, so to speak, in the offensive and defensive zones, going 6-for-16 in each (37.5 percent).  On the other hand, Eric Fehr was 14-for-24 in the ends for the week (58.3 percent) on his way to a 53.5 percent week overall. 

With the revolving door at second wing center (Evgeny Kuznetsov is playing there in place of Andre Burakovsky, who is skating for the Hershey Bears for the time being), Troy Brouwer has been getting a lot of chances in the circle (fourth on the team in faceoffs taken).  He was 12-for-19 for the week (63.2 percent), best of all Caps taking more than one faceoff.

Goals by Period:

The Caps won each period overall, and they had a 5-2-2 “record” by regulation period for the week.  That hiccup in the second period against Columbus – the two power play goals allowed – made the week look a bit worse than it was.  The Caps did well enough on a period-by-period basis to climb into a tie for sixth overall in first period goals scored and seventh in second period goals scored.  The best part of this, however, might be the four third period goals scored (one an empty netter).  This has been an issue for the Caps this season, but those four third period goals increased their season output by more than 17 percent (from 23 to 27 goals) and lifted them into 18^th place in the league.

In the end…

It is hard to argue with success.  No doubt there are things one might pick at as “problems” (penalty killing) or unsustainable (even strength shooting percentage), but looking at things holistically the Caps are competing on a consistent basis.  They are not allowing the occasional misstep (the second period against Columbus) or the bit of bad luck (Ovechkin’s near goals against New Jersey) put them in a rut.  One might not expect the team to sustain an 8-0-2 run over every ten games they play, but three weeks of success, all of it coming at the expense of Eastern Conference teams, is something on which to build as the calendar year winds down.  Anything to add, Cheerless?

"nope...we're good."

Three Stars:

• First Star: Nicklas Backstrom (2-2-4, plus-2, 20:21/game ice time)
• Second Star: Mike Green (1-2-3, plus-2, setup game-tying and game-winning goals against Columbus)
• Third Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-1, 1.62, .934, 1 shutout)

A TWO-point night -- Game 32: Capitals 4 - Devils 0

Washington Capitals fans would be hard-pressed to think of a more complete win than the 4-0 defeat the Caps pinned on the New Jersey Devils last night at Prudential Arena in Newark.  The score itself was a bit misleading; it could have been much worse for the home team (and we will get to that). At the other end, the Caps held the Devils to 21 shots on goal, the fewest allowed to an opponent since the Caps allowed only 21 shots to the Calgary Flames in a 3-1 win in Game 7 of the season.

For the Caps the scoring started after a scoreless first period when the Caps worked the puck around the perimeter.  Nicklas Backstrom skated the puck up the left wing wall before sliding it to Jack Hillen at the top of the offensive zone.  Hillen moved the puck over to Mike Green, who stepped up and let fly with a slap shot that sailed over the right shoulder of a screened Cory Schneider in goal just over three minutes into the period. 

Backstrom got on the board late in the period on a play that started with a collision.  As John Carlson was backhanding a pass to Jay Beagle entering the Devils’ zone, Alex Ovechkin and Adam Henrique collided to Beagle’s right, thus keeping Henrique from trying to cut Beagle off.  Beagle continued toward the New Jersey net, dropping the puck for Backstrom in the left wing faceoff circle.  Backstrom wristed the puck off the pipe to Schneider’s left and into the net to give the Caps a 2-0 lead at the second intermission.

Alex Ovechkin put the game away in the eighth minute of the third period with one of the prettier plays of the season.  Picking up the puck at his own blue line, Ovechkin got up a head of steam through the neutral zone, backing off the Devil defense.  It was a 1-on-2 with Travis Zajac and Jon Merrill back for the Devils.  Ovechkin threaded the puck around Merrill and out of the reach of Zajac, breaking behind both defenders as he angled across the slot.  He snapped a backhand past the blocker of Schneider from the edge of the paint to give the Caps a 3-0 lead.

Backstrom completed the scoring, sending a backhand from the right wing wall into an empty net to give the Caps a 4-0 win.

Other stuff…

-- Like we said, it could have been worse for the Devils.  Conversely, it could have been a much bigger night for Alex Ovechkin.  Twice he hit the pipe on shot attempts, and he came up short on a penalty shot attempt after being hauled down by Marek Zidlicky on a breakaway.

-- It was the third three-point game for Nicklas Backstrom this season and his second in a week (he had three assists in the Caps’ 4-2 win over Tampa Bay on December 13^th).

-- The teams split a total of 42 shots on goal and combined for only 73 shot attempts for the game.  By way of comparison, the Caps had 67 shot attempts on their own in their 5-4 overtime win over Columbus on Thursday.

-- Braden Holtby recorded his 13^th shutout of his career.  Odd thing about his shutouts on the road, of which there have been seven.  This was his fourth shutout having faced 21 or fewer shots.  All of them have been on the road (twice in Montreal and in Winnipeg).  It was his second career shutout against New Jersey, the other coming in a 3-0 win over New Jersey last February 8^th).

-- It just keeps rolling for John Carlson.  He skated 23:31 last night and was a plus-2, making him plus-14 over his last 11 games.

-- New Jersey pulled their goaltender with 3:11 left in regulation, which made for an odd line combination for the Capitals in response.  When the Caps came out for a faceoff at the 17:08 mark of the period, it was Backstrom centering Jay Beagle and Jason Chimera.  It was at the end of that shift that Backstrom scored his empty-net goal.

-- Ovechkin had ten of the Caps’ 37 total shot attempts (five shots on goal).  That might not seem as odd as Karl Alzner finishing with the second highest shots on goal total for the Caps (3).

-- At the other end… Eric Fehr, Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Tom Wilson, Michael Latta, and Jay Beagle combined for one shot on goal (Beagle) and three shot attempts (Fehr had a missed shot, Wilson had one blocked).

-- The 21 shots on goal for the Caps tied a season low.  They recorded 21 shots on goal in Game 2 of the season, a 4-0 win over the Boston Bruins.

-- This was the fourth time in five games that the Caps had three or more power play opportunities.  They are just 2-for-18 (11.1 percent) in those games, including 0-for-3 in this one.

-- In four games the Caps have 14 goals on 113 shots against the Devils, and that includes a 30-save shutout by Schneider in the second of the four meetings.  Take that away, and it is 14 goals on 83 shots, a hefty 16.9 percent shooting percentage.

In the end…

The beat goes on for a club that might be playing not only its best hockey of the season (6-0-2 in their last eight games), but the best hockey in the Eastern Conference at the moment (yes, Columbus is 8-0-1 in December, but the Caps are the team that beat them).  Unfortunately, there is little time to take it all in.  The Caps have four more Eastern Conference opponents to close the calendar year, and the competition level will ramp up as the games go by.  Ottawa, the Caps’ next opponent, is only four points behind Washington, and then the Caps face the Rangers, Penguins, and Islanders before ringing in the new year against the Blackhawks in the Winter Classic.  If this is the way the schedule unfolds, the Caps are playing at a level that makes it just a bit less daunting.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 32: Capitals at Devils, December 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their three-game road trip on Saturday night with their second visit to Newark, New Jersey, in the last two weeks.  They will meet the New Jersey Devils for the fourth of their five meetings this season.  The Caps lead the season series with a 2-1-0 record and might have at least another standings point out of the series but for this gaffe late in a 1-0 loss to the Devils…

Otherwise, the tale of the tape between the clubs this season looks like this:

Since these teams last met, on December 6th, the Devils have been struggling with a 2-3-2 record that included five straight losses before beating Tampa Bay in a Gimmick last night.  Goal scoring has dried up.  The Devils have a total of only 12 goals in those seven games.

Chances are you would not have thought it would happen, but Scott Gomez leads the Devils in scoring in the seven games since the Devils last faced the Caps (2-5-7) and with Adam Henrique are the only Devils with more than one goal.  It is quite a change for Gomez, who went three games without a point after signing as a free agent with New Jersey on December 1^st. 

Jaromir Jagr is next in line in scoring over the last seven games (1-5-6), but the goal he scored in the Devils’ 2-1 win over Carolina on December 8^th is his only goal over his last ten games.  He is also a minus-10 over those ten games.  One thing that stands out in his recent play is ice time.  He skated more than 20 minutes in three straight game before last night’s contest, his longest streak of 20-plus minute games this season, and he has had more than 20 minutes in five of his last seven games.

Marek Zidlicky leads the Devils’ defense in scoring over the last seven games (1-2-3).  The goal he scored in New Jersey’s 3-2 Gimmick loss to the New York Islanders on Monday was his first in 19 games, since he lit the lamp on November 6^th against the St. Louis Blues.

Cory Schneider started the season with 20 consecutive starts in goal for the Devils, a club record.  His record was a respectable 9-8-2 (one no-decision), 2.58, .914, with two shutouts.  He gave way to Scott Clemmensen in Game 21 to break the streak.  Since his streak ended, Schneider has appeared in ten games with a 2-7-1, 2.50, .920 record.  It isn’t significantly different, except for the fact that he has received almost no goal support, as his win-loss record indicates.  What has changed, though, is the undercard at the position.  Keith Kincaid has appeared in six games as Schneider’s backup, and his numbers in a small population of games is impressive, even if his win-loss record is not: 1-1-2, 1.71, .942 in 240 minutes of play (he recorded his first NHL win last night). 

Here is now the teams’ numbers compare overall:

1.  Odd stat…going into Fridays’ game with Tampa Bay, the Devils scored 24 goals in each of the three periods of games this season.  On the other side, there might be some concern in New Jersey over the fact that only four teams have allowed more goals combined in the second and third periods of games than the Devils (69) .

2.  Going into last night’s game New Jersey was one of the few teams with a worse winning percentage in one-goal games (.353/6-5-6) than the Capitals (.368/7-6-6).  Only five teams have a worse winning percentage in one-goal games.

3.  Maybe the problem is the Devils are such a bad front-running team.  Through Thursday’s games they took a lead into the first intermission only eight times in 33 games and had the league’s third-worst winning percentage in when leading after 20 minutes (.375/3-0-5).

4. How can the Devils have the seventh highest number of minor penalties taken, yet have the eighth lowest average penalty minutes per game?  They have taken only five major penalties this season.  Only Detroit has taken fewer.

5.  New Jersey is tied with Edmonton for the worst shorthanded goal differential this season (minus-3).  The Devils have allowed four shorthanded goals while scoring only one themselves.

1.  The Caps are 6-7-4 when outshooting their opponents, 7-3-2 when outshot by opponents.  Huh…imagine that.

2.  The Caps have played smart on the road in one respect.  Only three teams – Nashville (38), the Rangers (39), and Toronto (40) – have faced fewer shorthanded situations on the road than the Caps (43).

3. The Caps are third in the league in hits recorded on the road (485), behind Los Angeles (507) and Anaheim (518).

4.  Washington has the second best ratio of road takeaways to giveaways (1.19:1).  Only Toronto is better (1.37:1).

5.  The Caps are 4-0-1 in their last five road games.  It is their best stretch of road play in-season since they went 7-0-1 from March 21 through April 9, 2013.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Patrik Elias

On December 2^nd, Patrik Elias suffered a groin injury against the Pittsburgh Penguins.  In the six games he missed to the injury, the Devils went 2-3-1.  He returned to the lineup last Wednesday in a 2-0 loss to Ottawa, but he recorded a goal in the Devils’ 3-2 Gimmick win over Tampa Bay last night.  It was a good sign in what has been a tough year for the 19-year veteran.  He is on a pace to finish the season with 36 points, which would be his lowest total for a full season of his career.  He has never been a big minutes-eater, the Devils’ system has never required that sort of thing.  But his ice time (17:45 a game) is a few ticks down from what his average has been over the last 16 years (18:19/game).  On a team that struggles to score generally, his contributions are going to be important.  In 62 career games against Washington, Elias is 22-35-57, minus-3.

Washington:  John Carlson

John Carlson might have dodged a bullet in escaping supplementary discipline for his hit on Columbus’ Ryan Johansen in Thursday night’s 5-4 overtime win.  It was a mere blip on his recent play.  Even with going without a point in his last two games, Carlson is 2-8-10, plus-12, in his last ten games, and he has logged 21 or more minutes in nine of those ten games.  Carlson is tied for seventh in scoring among defensemen, tied for 17^th in plus-minus, and 12^th in shots on goal.  His scoring has not been especially noteworthy in road games, but he is a plus-9 overall, the second best mark in the league (Robyn Regehr: plus-10).  Carlson is 2-7-9, plus-6, in 18 career games against New Jersey.

In the end…

In the Caps’ 5-0-2 run, they have climbed from fourth in the Metropolitan Division and 11^th in the Eastern Conference to third in the division and eighth in the conference.  If anything, it shows how even with a solid run of play – all of it coming against conference opponents – it is tough to climb the standings.  That is the price of a league with three-point games being available.  This is another opportunity to put two more points between themselves and a division rival and to win the season series (the teams’ last contest of the regular season will be played on March 26^th).  With the Devils having gone the full 65 minutes and through a Gimmick last night, why stop now?

Capitals 4 – Devils 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 31: Capitals 5 - Blue Jackets 4 (OT)

The Washington Capitals took a measure of revenge over the Columbus Blue Jackets for their 3-2 overtime loss to the Blue Jackets last week by skating off with a 5-4 overtime win in Columbus last night.

It was a back and forth affair with the Caps taking a two-goal lead in the first period on goals by Joel Ward and Jason Chimera. Ward took a feed from Eric Fehr at the top of the right wing circle and snapped the puck past the blocker of Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky at the 9:51 mark. Chimera converted a nifty backhand feed at the top of the crease by Michael Latta to put the Caps up, 2-0, with 37.9 seconds left in the period.

Columbus stormed back with the next three goals – Jack Johnson and Nick Foligno scoring power play goals in the second period, and Foligno getting his second of the game in the first minute of the third period. Washington tied it when Karl Alzner grabbed a loose puck in the high slot, skated in, and wristed a shot through Bobrovsky’s pads seven minutes into the period.

The tie lasted until the 15:35 mark of the period when Michael Chaput scored his first NHL goal, an odd ending to a play in which a shot by Matt Calvert from the right wing wall ricocheted off teammate Jared Boll in front of Braden Holtby and out the other side to Chaput waiting in the left wing faceoff circle.

The goal call over the public address system was still echoing in the arena when the Caps tied the game once more.  Just 1:25 after the Chaput goal, Troy Brouwer made it 4-4 when he redirected a Mike Green drive with his skate past Bobrovsky.  The play was reviewed, the goal was confirmed, and the game went to overtime.

Eric Fehr ended it 42 seconds into overtime, taking a pass from Mike Green in the slot and slamming it past Bobrovsky as he was being taken off his feet by Brandon Dubinsky.  The Caps earned the extra standings point with the 5-4 win.

Other stuff…

-- Deuces were wild for Mike Green (yes, the player to ponder in the prognosto).  Two assists, two points, two shots on goal, two shots blocked, two hits, two big time plays.  The first came on the Brouwer goal to tie the game when he broke up a centering pass from Nick Foligno to Matt Calvert, recovered the puck in the corner, then skated the puck all the way to the Columbus zone before peeling off and threading a pass to Brouwer (well, his skate) for the goal.  The second big time play came in overtime on another rush, this time skating the puck out of the Caps’ zone down the right wing and into the Columbus zone.  He faked a slap shot, then circled to the goal line before sending the puck back out onto the tape of Eric Fehr’s stick for the game-winning goal.  Oddly, he did not merit a star in the eyes of the folks who do the selecting of the three stars. 

-- It was one game, but it was satisfying to see the Caps push back – hard – when the Blue Jackets started getting frisky in the second period.  At one point, four Caps were in the penalty box, all for aggression penalties (Tom Wilson and Michael Latta for fighting; Troy Brouwer and John Carlson for roughing).  Brouwer would take another aggression penalty – fighting Michael Chaput – later in that same period.

-- The two power play goals allowed was the first time the Caps allowed two or more since they allowed three to the Vancouver Canucks in a 4-3 loss on December 2nd.  They had been 13-for-14 killing penalties (92.9 percent) over a six-game stretch coming into the game with Columbus.

-- Eric Fehr now has goals in three of his last four games and four in his last seven contests.  It was his first multi-point game of the season and his first since recording a goal and two assists in a 5-2 win over Carolina last April 10th.

-- Jason Chimera also had a multi-point game (1-1-2), also his first of the season and his first since also going 1-2-3 in that April 10th game against Carolina.  His two points last night also broke a four-game streak without a point; his goal broke a ten-game streak without one since he scored in a 3-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on November 20th.

-- Karl Alzner scored his second goal of the season, equaling his career high.. Yes, it was his first multi-point game of the season (he assisted on the Joel Ward goal to start the game) and his first since recording two assists in a 4-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs last March 16th.

-- Michael Latta…two points (assists on the Chimera and Alzner goals)… first two-point game of this season… first multi-point game of his career.

-- Lost in all this is the fact that in a game in which the Caps scored five goals, neither Alex Ovechkin nor Nicklas Backstrom recorded a point.  This despite the fact that between the two of them they had nine of the Caps’ 36 shots on goal and 20 of the Caps’ 67 shot attempts.

-- Speaking of attempts, the Caps steamrolled the Blue Jackets in Corsi with 67 shot attempts overall to 41 for Columbus (62.0 percent Corsi-for).

-- Maybe it was a scoring thing, but the Caps were not charged with a single giveaway.

-- In his first 15 appearances this season, Braden Holtby was victimized for only a total of five power play goals, and in no game did he allow more than one.  In his last 11 appearances he has allowed nine power play goals and allowed two or more three times, including the two last night.

In the end…

Pretty?  Not really.  But it sent a message to a team that had been lurking one rung down the standings ladder (now two as the Caps jumped over the New York Rangers in the Metropolitan Division with the win).  The Caps can take a figurative punch (or a literal one) and get back up.  Now, can they do that on a night-to-night basis?  We will see.  And, the club showed that it can produce when the big cannons are silent.  But for now, Caps fans, just bask in the glow of a 5-0-2 run, all of it against Eastern Conference teams.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 31: Capitals at Blue Jackets, December 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the ice on Thursday night to face the Columbus Blue Jackets in the middle game of their three-game road trip.  The teams played just a week ago, but the intervening seven days have been, shall we say, eventful for both teams.

The Caps played two game since losing to the Blue Jackets in overtime last Thursday, taking three of four points from Florida teams – a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning (completing the sweep of a two-game set played over a four day period) and a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Florida Panthers that featured a record-setting 20-round trick shot competition.

Over on the other side, the Blue Jackets have played twice since facing the Caps, and both of their games went to extra time, both to the freestyle competition, beating Pittsburgh (4-3) and Detroit (1-0).  The two Gimmick wins extended to four the number of consecutive games played by Columbus that went to extra time, and five of their last six games.  One odd part about the run is that the Blue Jackets won all five games settled in extra time, three of them in the Gimmick.  Another is that the five games in six settled in extra time follow 24 games to start the season in which Columbus was involved in only two extra time games.

It would appear likely that Sergei Bobrovsky will get the call in goal for Columbus in what would be his eighth straight appearance.  Why not?  He’s on quite a roll.  In seven appearances since the start of December, Bobrovsky is 7-0-0, 1.63, .950.  That 7-0-0 run coincides with a month of December in which Columbus has risen from dead last in the Eastern Conference when the month began to fifth place in the Metropolitan Division, six point behind the fourth-place Capitals, and 12th of 16 teams in the conference.

Not that the Columbus record in December is pure, unalloyed gold.  Consider their opponents.  In addition to playing games on the margin (six one-goal wins in seven victories), their colectio of opponents has ranged from “meh” to depleted.  Columbus has beaten Florida twice (ok, the Panthers beat the Caps), a team that, it should be remember, has lost 16 of 29 games.  They have beaten Philadelphia, a team that has lost 19 of 30 games.  They beat Pittsburgh when the Penguins had seven players out of the lineup, including Sidney Crosby.

What the Blue Jackets have done in the seven-game streak is display a certain consistency on offense.  Embedded in the streak is another one in which they scored three goals in regulation or overtime in five straight games.  Drilling down, though, the offense is anything but balanced.  Boone Jenner (5) and Nick Foligno (4) have combined for nine of the 17 goals scored in the seven-game winning streak.

Here is how the number compare overall between the teams…

1.  Columbus is 5-for-22 on the power play (22.7 percent) on their seven-game winning streak, and they have a 21-for-25 penalty kill (84.0 percent).  Bobrovsky has been good, but the team has enjoyed a rather favorable special teams effort as well (106.7 on the special teams index).

2.  That PDO number has been pretty good, too.  At 105.2 overall in the seven-game winning streak (10.2 shooting percentage, 95.0 save percentage), the question becomes one of whether the Blue Jackets are in for a correction.

3.  Jack Johnson had a four-game points streak stopped in Columbus’ 1-0 Gimmick win over Detroit on Tuesday.  It was his longest points streak since he put together a six-game streak, December 21-30, 2010 (2-5-7).

4.  Only Arizona has scored fewer third period goals (18) than the Blue Jackets (19).  Of course, it was a third period goal against the Caps that forced overtime in which Columbus won.

5.  In the seven-game winning streak, Columbus has been outshot by a whopping 242-166 (34.6-23.7 per game).  Almost half of that 76 shot deficit came in a 4-3 Gimmick win over Florida in which Columbus was outshot, 55-20.

1.  Once upon a time, the Caps were denying teams shots.  December did not start that way, the Caps allowing 30 or more shots on goal in three straight games, the first time this season they allowed 30 or more in three straight contests.  In their last three games, however, they are back to allowing less than 30.  Unfortunately, the Caps lost two of those games, both in extra time.

2.  When the Caps lost to the Blue Jackets in overtime last Thursday, it was the first Washington loss to Columbus on home ice since they dropped a 5-4 decision in overtime on November 1, 2009.  When visiting Columbus, the Caps have not fared as well.  They lost their two most recently played games in Columbus by a combined score of 10-3.

3.  Yup, the Caps are still last in the league in road power play opportunities. Washington has had only 31 power play opportunities in 15 road games, but they are tied for 16th in road power play goals scored, courtesy of a league-leading 35.5 percent road power play.

4.  The Caps are 13-1-2 when leading after two periods.  Only three teams have more wins when leading at the second intermission.  The other side of that is that the Caps are 1-9-4 when tied or trailing at the second break.

5.  Alex Ovechkin has an odd scoring split in games so far this season.  He has 13 points in 14 wins, he has 13 points in 16 losses. Nicklas Backstrom’s is similarly odd – 15 points in 14 wins, 16 points in 16 losses.  Either the Caps need to get secondary scoring to win games, given the consistency of the two big guns, or the big guns need to produce more to push the Caps into the win column more often.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Ryan Johansen

For a while there, Ryan Johansen was scoring points in bunches – two against Tampa Bay on November 8th, four points against Philadelphia on November 14th, three against Boston on November 21st.  That three-point effort against the Bruins on November 21st was Johansen’s last multi-point game.  Since then he is 2-2-4 in 11 games, and he is without a goal in his last seven contests.  He is still tied for the team lead in points, but one has the feeling his production is going to have to improve if the Blue Jackets are going to continue climbing back up in the standings.  He is 3-2-5, plus-1 in seven career games against Washington.

Washington: Mike Green

Mike Green has once more had to deal with the injury bug, most recently missing seven games to an upper-body injury.  Still, Green is without a point in his last six games, and he is without a goal in 17 straight contests, his last one coming on October 22nd in a 3-2 loss to Edmonton.  The subject of, if not loud, then persistent trade chatter, Green has assumed what amounts to third-pair minutes for the Caps.  He is fifth among defensemen in even strength ice time per game (16:44), with only partner Nate Schmidt logging fewer minutes per night at evens (14:06) among defensemen appearing in at least 20 games.  With the emergence of John Carlson, the arrival of Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik, and his missing more time to injury, Green does not cast a large shadow on the blue line these days.  Although Green has been a dominant player in a subtle way, it would be nice to see some of the old Green come out to play from time to time.  He is 1-4-5, minus-3 in 10 career games against Columbus.

In the end…

Last Saturday, the Caps had to deal with a Tampa Bay team bent on revenge for a loss pinned on them by the Caps.  Now, it is Washington playing the role of the team looking to settle a score after dropping the 3-2 overtime decision to Columbus last week.  The Caps have the incentive of trying to extend a nice streak of games with standings points earned (4-0-2) and have a chance to stop the Columbus advance up the standings in its tracks.

Capitals 3 - Blue Jackets 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 10

Week 10 looked a lot like Week 9 for the Washington Capitals, and that is not a bad thing at all. For the first time since Weeks 1 and 2, the Caps put together consecutive winning weeks.  Let’s take a look at how they got there in Week 10.

Record: 2-0-1

The Caps came into the week teetering on the edge of the playoff mix, sitting in third place in the Metropolitan Division but ninth in the Eastern Conference standings.  But they were also coming into Week 10 on a two-game winning streak.  They made it three in a row with a win over Tampa Bay on Tuesday to start the week to match their longest winning streak of the year.  The Caps could not make it four, though, dropping a decision in overtime to Columbus.  The Caps made it two in a row over Tampa Bay to end the week on a high note, giving them a 4-0-1 record over their most recent five games, their best five-game record of the season.  It also lifted them into seventh place in the conference standings, their highest conference ranking since they stood in seventh place on October 27^th.

Offense:  3.67/game (season: 2.90/game; rank: T-10th)

It was a week for the top line, even if it came with a bit of a smudge on the record.  Alex Ovechkin had a pair of goals in the first game against Tampa Bay in Week 10 and a pair of assists in the rematch to end the week.  Nicklas Backstrom had pair of assists in the first game against Tampa Bay and recorded a hat trick – his first career regular season hat trick – in the second game against the Lightning.  Tom Wilson had an assist in the first game against Tampa Bay and a pair of helpers – his first career multi-assist game – in the rematch.  However, the top line was shut out on points in the overtime loss to Columbus despite 12 shots on goal from the trio (nine by Ovechkin, three by Backstrom).

The Caps did get some scoring from down the line, though.  Troy Brouwer, Brooks Laich, and Eric Fehr combined for five goals for the week.  The defense did not have much by way of goals (Matt Niskanen has the only one), but they did chip in six assists, three of them by John Carlson, who is on a tear of late (2-8-10, plus-11, in his last eight games).

Defense: 2.67/game (season: 2.66/game; rank: 16^th)

The eight goals allowed in three games probably looks worse than it was.  One of those goals came with four seconds left in what would be a 5-3 win for the Caps in Tampa to start the week (the Caps got an empty netter with less than a second left for the final score).  Another came on an overtime power play for Columbus, a 4-on-3 situation that the Caps nearly killed off, the goal coming with just 19 seconds left in the extra period.

As far as the goals against/on-ice record goes, Brooks Orpik was on ice for five of the eight goals against and Matt Niskanen four among the defensemen.  Brooks Laich was on ice for four goals against among the forwards.  Sixteen different skaters were on ice for goals against.  Mike Green, Andre Burakovsky, Michael Latta, and Jay Beagle escaped notice in that regard.

What it was not was an especially good week for possession at 5-on-5.  The Caps held their own against Tampa Bay to start the week (Corsi-for: 53.9 percent) and broke even against Columbus (50.0 percent).  In Saturday night’s game against the Lightning, though, the Caps were dominated (39.2 percent).  A PDO of 101.3 helped make the week better than the underlying numbers might have suggested. 

Goaltending: 2.61 GAA / .908 SV (season: 2.59 / .906 / 1 SO)

Braden Holtby figured in all three decisions for the week, making it 12 straight decisions for Holtby.  Over those 12 games Holtby is 7-3-2, 2.35, .920.  In Week 10 he was sharp when he had to be and ended up with numbers that might not look as good as his play might have suggested.  It was in the second period of games in which he stood out in Week 10, stopping 27 of 28 shots (.964 save percentage).  It was in the third period that he was spotty, but owing to score effects. He allowed three goals on 28 shots in the two third periods he played against Tampa Bay, one goal coming in the last four seconds and the other two with the Caps holding a 3-0 lead when the scoring began.  He was a perfect 27-for-27 in score-tied situations, including stopping 11 straight shots in the second period of a scoreless game against Tampa Bay on Saturday (including a 5-on-3 Lightning power play) before the Caps registered their first shot on goal of the period.  On balance, Holtby had a very good week.

Power Play: 2-for-12/ 16.7 percent (season: 26.5 percent; rank: 1^st) 

Week 10 was unusual for the Caps in one respect – power play opportunities.  Washington had 12 man advantage situations, making it the first week they hit double digits in power plays since Week 5 (4-for-10) and their highest volume week of the season.  The six opportunities they had against Columbus in the middle game of the week was the most the Caps had since Game 9 against Detroit on October 29^th and tied the most they had in a game this season. 

The power play in Week 10 reflected the difference between efficiency and effectiveness.  In one respect the Caps were very efficient, recording 31 shots in 20:36 of power play ice time (1.5 shots per minute of ice time).  In another, the Caps were very ineffective, recording only two goals on those 31 shots, including going 1-for-18 against Columbus, arguably the difference between a 2-0-1 week and a perfect week.  And, one of the most unusual parts of the week was where the power play goals came from – Matt Niskanen and Eric Fehr, who are not generally thought of as consistent power play contributors.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-10/ 90.0 percent (season: 77.0 percent; rank: 26^th)

It would have been a perfect week on the penalty kill, had only the power play done better against Columbus.  The Caps were 9-for-9 in regulation time in the three games of Week 10, but they allowed a power play goal in overtime against Columbus for the only blot on the Week 10 record.  Here, the Caps were both efficient (12 shots in 17:38 of ice time; o.68 shots per minute) and effective (stopping 11 of those 12 shots; a .917 save percentage). 

The pivotal point of the week came in the second period against Tampa Bay on Saturday night when the Caps killed off a full two-minute 5-on-3 power play.  The Caps allowed four shots in those two minutes, but only one of them from Steven Stamkos.  Braden Holtby stopped them all, and less than two minutes later the Caps broke a scoreless tie on their way to a 4-2 win and a winning week.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 9-7 / plus-2 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 0.96; rank: 20^th)

Win the even strength goal matchup, win the game, win the week.  The Caps won both ends of their two-game set with Tampa Bay in part by winning the even strength goal battle, 4-3 on Tuesday and 4-2 on Saturday.  Washington lost the even strength battle against Columbus on Thursday, 2-1, and lost the game in overtime.  It was a close week in even strength shots, the Caps winning that battle only once, oddly enough in the overtime loss to Columbus (21-20).  They were outshot at evens in both Tampa Bay games, 33-30 on Tuesday and 22-19 on Saturday.

The Caps have done a somewhat better job in the 5-on-5 battle recently.  Winning Week 10 is part of a run in which the Caps won or tied the 5-on-5 goal scoring battle eight times in their last 12 games.  Given the Caps’ power play abilities (their problems getting opportunities notwithstanding), this kind of a trend could spell a good run of success for the Caps if they can extend it.

Faceoffs: 94-for-173 / 54.3 percent (season:  percent; rank: 11^th)

It was a good week in the circle, the Caps finishing 50 percent or better in all three games overall.  That’s not to say it was a great week.  The Caps’ 54.3 percent winning percentage for the week was inflated some by a 63.5 percent winning percentage on neutral zone draws.  They were at 49.2 percent on offensive zone draws and 51.7 percent in defensive zone faceoffs. 

On an individual level, 11 different skaters took at least one faceoff, three of them taking more than 25 overall.  Three of the four players taking more than 20 draws finished over 50 percent for the week: Nicklas Backstrom (68.8 percent on 48 draws), Eric Fehr (55.6 percent on 45 faceoffs), and Troy Brouwer (60.9 percent on 23 draws).  Only Michael Latta was under 50 percent, and that was by a single draw (10-for-21).

Goals by Period:

The Caps won or tied all nine periods in regulation time in Week 10, winning three periods and tied in six.  They lost their only overtime period.  Overall, they won each regulation period: 3-2 in the first periods of games, 3-1 in the second periods, and 5-4 in the third periods of games.  It was not a dominating sort of outcome, but its consistency is a result to be hoped for and, hopefully, extended.

In the end…

Two straight winning weeks, a 4-0-1 run in their last five games, and all of it against Eastern Conference teams.  The Caps now have a three-point lead over the New York Rangers for third place in the Metropolitan Division (the Rangers hold two games in hand) and a six-point lead over fifth-place Philadelphia and New Jersey (the Caps hold two games in hand over the Devils). 

There remains work to do; the Caps are still ranked in the lower half of the league in scoring defense, 5-on-5 goals ratio, and penalty killing, for example.  Nevertheless, the Capitals are in as good a place as they have occupied all season, especially because they are putting this run together against Eastern Conference teams.  Now we will get to see if they can continue this good fortune with the spotlight on them in the run up to the Winter Classic on New Year’s Day.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Nicklas Backstrom (3-2-5, plus-2, hat trick, 1 GWG)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-2-4, plus-4, 23 shots on goal, 37 shot attempts, 14 hits)
• Third Star: John Carlson (0-3-3, plus-3, 10 shots on goal, (23:51/game ice time)