The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals hope to wrap up their three-game
road trip in a winning fashion and with a winning record as they visit the
Colorado Avalanche in Denver on Thursday night.
The Caps are coming off a 2-1 overtime win against the
Arizona Coyotes, the second time this season they won a game when scoring two
or fewer goals (the other being a 2-1 Gimmick win over the Florida Panthers on
October 18th). After going 0-25-7 last
year in games in which they scored two or fewer goals (including shootouts),
the Caps are 2-5-1 in such games this season.
As for the Avalanche, they come into this contest having a
difficult month of November. In eight
games so far this month, Colorado is 3-4-1, although they have won their last
two games – a 4-3 trick shot win over the Rangers and a 3-2 win in New Jersey –
to complete a 2-2-0 road trip.
On offense, the Avs seem stuck on “3.” That would be the number of goals they scored
in four of their last five contests, part of the 18 they have in eight games
this month. They have yet to score more
than three goals in any of those eight games of November.
If we asked you who was leading the Avalanche in scoring in
November, you might be inclined to answer Nathan MacKinnon or Gabriel Landeskog
or Ryan O’Reilly. We doubt that the name
“Tyson Barrie” would have occurred to you, but that would be the correct
answer. Barrie’s six points for the
month (all assists) has vaulted him into a tie for the team lead in points (13)
with Matt Duchene. Barrie is probably
not well known to Caps fans, but his performance is not particularly
surprising. Last year, his third in the
NHL, he finished 13-25-38 to finish one point shy of Erik Johnson for the team
scoring lead among defensemen.
Up front, the precociousness of youth remains on display for
Colorado. Their own version of the
“Young Guns” – Duchene, O’Reilly, Landeskog, and MacKinnon – are all 23 years
of age or younger. They also account for
17 of the 45 goals scored by the Avs through 19 games and six of the 18 scored
by the club in November. As a group they
are 3-8-11 against the Caps over their respective careers, O’Reilly the only
one not to have yet recorded a career goal against Washington.
In goal, the Caps seem unlikely to see their old friend,
Semyon Varlamov. His season has had its
issues with consistency, perhaps due to distractions, perhaps due injury problems of the sort that plagued him in Washington and that
will keep him out of this game.
In his place is likely to be Reto Berra, a goalie of limited
experience (37 career games, eight of them with the Avalanche over the past two
seasons) and limited success (career: 11-19-4, 3.02, .896). Berra has appeared in six games so far this
season and is 2-1-1, 2.70, .914. He has
been quite inconsistent in limited play.
In his four starts this season his save percentages are .964, .889,
.921, and .852. The next in the series
would be a .920-plus outing; on the other hand he has not appeared in a game
since November 8th. Against
the Caps he is 1-0-1, 3.30, .905 in three career appearances.
Here is how the teams compare in their numbers through
Tuesday’s games:
1. There have been
706 skaters dressing for at least one game this season in the NHL. Defenseman
Nick Holden is dead last among that group in plus-minus (minus-15). It not as if he has been much better in terms
of possession. Only six players have a
worse Corsi plus-minus than Holden (minus-117).
Among 437 players with more than 200 minutes of ice time, he has the
tenth worst Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (37.94).
2. Colorado is really
struggling with the second period. They
are minus-2 in the first and plus-1 in the third periods of games, but they are
a whopping minus-10 in the middle period.
That is the second worst second period goal differential in the league
(Buffalo is minus-11).
3. The Avs have the
league’s worst record in the league when leading after one period (2-4-0). Only they and Dallas have winning percentages
below .500. They are better, but only
marginally so, when leading after the second period (.400), but they are the
only team in the league with a winning percentage below .500.
4. If Colorado has a
strength, it is one that matches the Caps’ strength. The Avalanche are fifth in the league in
penalty killing (88.2 percent), but they are even better at home. They have allowed only two power play goals
at home this season. No team has allowed
fewer on home ice, and only Detroit has a better penalty killing rate at home
(94.4 percent) than Colorado (93.8 percent).
It will be a challenge for the Capitals’ power play.
5. Colorado is not a
very good possession team. They rank 28th
of 30 teams in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (43.51) and are minus-206 in
Corsi events (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
They have been outshot in 13 of 19 games so far this season with a
record in those games on 3-6-4, 27th in winning percentage.
1. The Caps do a much
better job of leading after 20 and 40 minutes than they do of leading after
60. They have taken a lead into the
first intermission seven times while they have trailed only three times. They have led after 40 minutes ten times
while trailing just four times.
2. Following on that
first fact, the Caps have the fourth worst goal differential in the third
periods of games (minus-7), undoing much of their earlier work (plus-5 in the
first period, plus four in the second period).
3. Washington’s
ability to hold opponent shot totals down (26.8 per game) is the reason that
they have the sixth best shot differential in the league (plus 3.3 per
game). Last season they were 27th
(minus-4.1)
4. Even with all the
shot suppression, the Caps are just tied for 18th in goals allowed
at 5-on-5.
5. Alex Ovechkin and
Nicklas Backstrom have not had a “plus” game since November 2nd
(seven game streak). Even with that, the
Caps are 4-2-1 in those games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Colorado: Alex Tanguay
For all the youth available to the Avalanche, it is the old
man, Alex Tanguay, who leads the club in goals scored (7). Tanguay spent his first six seasons in
Colorado before heading off to Calgary, Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Calgary again
before landing in Colorado once more in 2013-2014. Now in his 15th NHL season,
Tanguay is closing in on 1,000 games played (957) and 800 points (784). He has been hot lately, going 3-2-5 in his
last six games, even if he doesn’t shoot all that much (ten shots on goal in
those games, half of them against Toronto on November 6th). He is 4-5-9 in 17 career games against the
Capitals.
Washington: Jason Chimera
Jason Chimera earned an assist in the Caps’ 2-1 overtime win
over Arizona on Tuesday when he set up Jay Beagle for the Caps’ first
goal. It broke a seven-game streak
without a point. He is still working on
a 13-game streak without a goal and has only one this season. He has not been immune to slow starts. Last season he started the year with one goal
in his first nine games and finished with 15.
Two years ago he went the first 27 games of the season without a goal
and finished with three. So, it might be
hard to ascertain whether he is victim of a slow start, or he is in what might
be a painful season-long rut. His
shooting percentage has been an issue in terms of its consistency. He has never been an especially efficient shooter
(only twice in 11 previous full seasons has he finished over 10 percent; career:
8.7 percent), but his 4.8 percent is something to notice. He is 6-8-14 in 28 career games against
Colorado.
In the end…
This is not last year’s Colorado team. Except for their penalty kill, this is a team
that ranks in the bottom third of just about every other meaningful statistic,
fancy or not. They do come into this
game on a mini-winning streak, having won their last two contests. However, they are struggling to score, and
their number one goaltender has a wonky groin.
However, this is also a team that skated rings around the Caps last
season, and Washington has found its own difficulty in scoring in the thin air
of Denver with one goal in each of their last two visits there, both of them
losses. Things are different this time
though, the Caps have a new coach and a new approach, the Avs are paying for
what seemed like a deal with the Devil last season. You know how this will turn out…
Capitals 3 – Avalanche 1
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