Washington Capitals: Alexander Urbom and the Need for "Depth" Depth Defensemen

The Washington Capitals made a minor deal on Thursday, claiming defenseman Alexander Urbom on waivers from the New Jersey Devils.  Urbom, a 6’4”, 215 pound blueliner, has played in 14 NHL games over three seasons.  Last season he spent most of his time with the Albany Devils in the AHL where he finished 0-8-8, minus-3 in 68 games.  This is, as noted, a minor deal in the larger scheme of things, and Caps fans might be wondering, “why?”  It got us to thinking about depth defensemen in general.

Defensemen are always at a premium in the NHL.  This goes for top-end headliners, certainly, but to a certain extent it goes for depth defensemen, too.  Since the 2004-2005 NHL lockout the Washington Capitals have dressed, on average, 11 defensemen per season, including 12 in last year’s lockout-shortened 48-game season.  The range has been from nine defensemen (in 2005-2006 and 2007-2008) to 13 (in 2008-2009).  Given that a club can dress only six defensemen a night (except in those rare instances in which they might dress seven), having a defenseman that can step in, in a pinch, is a valuable commodity.

And, we do not just mean roster defensemen.  If a team carries seven defensemen, chances are that seventh defenseman will get minutes.  But, to use the Caps’ example, that means that four defensemen (on average) not on the roster are going to have to fill in from time to time.  Those players might be in Hershey, they might be obtained in trade in-season.

Let’s look a bit more closely at the Caps’ experience in this regard over the past eight seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout.  Over those eight years the Caps have averaged three defensemen per season who played in at least 70 games.  That leaves, on average, three spots per night that are going to have multiple players at each slot logging significant games.  If you look at the bottom three defensemen in games played over each of those eight seasons they averaged 13 games played, per man, per season.  Those are, on average, the 9/10/11 defensemen in the system (given the average of 11 defensemen used per season).  Let’s look at these defensemen in more detail.

2005-2006

The bottom three defensemen in games played in the first year out of the lockout were: Mathieu Biron (52 games), Nolan Yonkman (38), and Mike Green (22).  This was the first year out of the 2004-2005 lockout, and the Caps were in the midst of their tear-down/rebuild .  Biron, a journeyman defenseman having played with three teams in over five seasons, was a free-agent signing in the summer before that 2005-2006 season.  Yonkman, a 1999 draft pick for the Caps, was playing in his first full season with the club after appearing in 12 games over two seasons before the lockout.  These last three defensemen were obtained as follows:

Biron: free agent

Yonkman: drafted (prospect)

Green: drafted (prospect)

2006-2007

The bottom three defensemen in this season in games played were: Lawrence Nycholat (18), Timo Helbling (2), and Jamie Hunt (1).  Nycholat, an August 2005 free agent signing by the Caps, played the entire 2005-2006 season in Hershey and would split time between Hershey (29 games) and Washington (18 games) in the 2006-2007 season before he was traded to Ottawa in February 2007.  Helbling was an August 2006 free agent signing by the Caps who spent 49 games in Hershey and two with the Caps before being shipped to Buffalo with Dainius Zubrus for Jiri Novotny and a draft pick in February 2007.  Hunt was signed as a free agent by the Caps in March 2006 and played in one game with the big club in 2006-2007 after spending 36 games in Hershey.

Nycholat: free agent

Helbling: free agent

Hunt: free agent

2007-2008

This was a different mix, a different set of circumstances in an up-and-down (or, more precisely, a down-and-up) year for the Caps.  Among the bottom three defensemen in games played, Brian Pothier played in 38 games, Steve Eminger played in 20, and Sami Lepisto played in seven contests.  Pothier – a July 2006 free agent signing – is on this list because his season ended on January 3^rd, the victim of a concussion when he was hit by Milan Lucic and tumbled into the boards.  Eminger – drafted in 2002 by the Caps -- more or less was Pothier’s replacement, appearing in 18 of his 20 games that season after Pothier’s injury.  Lepisto – a 2004 draft pick for the Caps – was brought up for a seven-game look-see in late-February, spending most of his season (55 games) in Hershey.  It is worth noting that this was one of the seasons in which the Caps dressed only nine defensemen all season, making the absence of call-ups or other players coming to the club via other lesser transactions understandable.  It is also worth noting that Hershey did Josef Boumedienne on its roster, a player who played in 43 games for the Caps over the 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 seasons.

Pothier: free agent

Eminger: drafted

Lepisto: drafted

2008-2009

If 2007-2008 was a season of comparatively few defensemen dressing for the Caps, the 2008-2009 season was just the opposite.  Thirteen defensemen dressed for the Caps in this season.  The bottom three in this instance included: Brian Pothier (9), Sami Lepisto (7), and Staffan Kronwall (3).  Pothier was coming out on the back side of his injury suffered the previous season, rejoining the club on March 16^th and playing in nine games thereafter to close the season.  Lepisto got seven more games, this time early in the season while spending 70 games with Hershey.  Kronwall was claimed off the waiver wire from Toronto in February 2009.  He then split time between Hershey (17 games) and Washington, where he appeared in three games over a 17-day period late in the season. 

It is worth noting, given the large number of defensemen who dressed for the Caps in this season that Bryan Helmer, a defenseman who already had played 15 seasons in the AHL, plus another 63 games with Hershey in 2008-2009, but who had only 134 games of NHL experience over six seasons in the NHL (and had not played in the NHL in three seasons) appeared in 12 games for the Caps.  There is also Sean Collins, who split time between Hershey in the AHL and South Carolina in the ECHL over the 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 season, playing in 15 games for the Caps in his first NHL action.

Pothier: free agent

Lepisto: drafted

Kronwall: waivers

2009-2010

This was another of the “prospect” years.  Among the bottom three defensemen in games played were: John Carlson (22), Karl Alzner (21), and Joe Corvo (18.). Carlson and Alzner were both first round draft picks.  Carlson was brought up for short stints from Hershey in November and January, but he stuck with the team when brought up in early March.  Alzner, who got a 30-game audition with the club in 2008-2009, got an early look in the 2009-2010 season, but after playing in 21 games was sent back to Hershey to finish the regular season in February 2010.  Joe Corvo was the product of a trading deadline deal, brought in from Carolina for Pothier, Oskar Osala, and a draft pick.  He was a rental who departed from whence he came – Carolina – after the season.

Carlson: drafted (prospect)

Alzner: drafted (prospect)

Corvo: trade

2010-2011

The bottom three defensemen in games played this season included: Dennis Wideman (14), Brian Fahey (7), and Sean Collins (4).  Wideman was another trading deadline deal, sent to Washington by Florida for Jake Hauswirth and a draft pick.  He lasted only those 14 games, though, suffering a leg injury on March 29^th that ended his season.  Fahey, a July 2010 free agent signing by the Caps, got his games early in the season as part of the revolving door that was replacing injured Tom Poti.  Fahey spent 60 games in Hershey that season.  Sean Collins, a March 2007 free agent signing, was also part of that depth contingent, getting his games late it the campaign by which time Poti’s season was over.  He spent 73 games in Hershey.

Wideman: trade

Fahey: free agent

Collins: free agent

2011-2012

This was a bit of an odd, injury driven year that was most notable for Dmitry Orlov getting 60 games as a rookie while Mike Green and John Erskine spent a large part of the season injured.  Erskine was, in fact, one of the bottom three defensemen in games played (28).   The others were Tomas Kundratek (5) and Sean Collins (2).  Kundratek was picked up during the season in a trade that sent Francois Bouchard to the New York Rangers.  He had split time between the Connecticut Whale and the Hershey Bears in the AHL before getting a look with the Caps in January.  Collins, who would spend almost all his time in Hershey, spent two games with the Caps in late October owing to the uncertain health of Erskine (who at that time was not cleared for contact with a shoulder injury) and Mike Green, who had an ankle injury.

Erskine: free agent

Kundratek: trade

Collins: free agent

2012-2013

In 2012-2013 the bottom three defensemen in games played reflected three different situations.  Dmitry Orlov might have played in more than five games, but his suffering a concussion in the AHL Showcase game at Verizon Center left him with almost a lost season, whether in Hershey or in Washington.  Roman Hamrlik played in four games, all early in the abbreviated season, fell out of favor, and was waived by the Caps in early March.  Cameron Schilling, who the Caps signed as a free agent out of Miami (Ohio) University in March 2007, got one game in March 2013 when John Erskine and Tom Poti were out with injuries.  It is worth noting that the injuries to Poti, Erskine, and Mike Green meant that large blocks of games would be taken up by Steve Oleksy (a free agent in Hershey who would play in 28 games), and Kundratek (who would play in 25 games before sustaining an injury himself).

Orlov: drafted

Hamrlik: free agent

Schilling: free agent

What we have are 21 defensemen who at one time or another represented those last three defensemen called upon in terms of games played in a season for the Caps.  Of that group, here is how they break down by acquisition:

Free Agent: 10

Drafted: 7

Trade: 3

Waivers: 1

Of the drafted group, four were first round picks, and two more were second rounders.  These were prospect either called up for a look or pressed into duty maybe a little sooner than anticipated due to injuries among other defensemen.  Fourteen other defensemen in this group came to the club via trade, waiver claims, or free agent signing.  The Brian Pothier and Roman Hamrlik free agency signings can be thought of as significant roster moves.  The others, though, were largely minor deals.  Then there are the significant blocks of games taken up by players not in this “bottom three” group who might have been expected, under normal circumstances, to spend their entire seasons in the minors – Tyler Sloan getting 26 games, Sean Colins getting 15, and Bryan Helmer getting 12 in the 2008-2009 season; Sloan getting 40 games in 2009-2010 and another 33 in 2010-2011; Dmitry Orlov getting 60 games in 2011-2012; Steve Oleksy getting 28 games and Tomas Kundratek getting 25 last season.

It points to a need for players you do not think will be seeing time in Washington being “on call.”  No team is going to make it through a season with seven roster defensemen.  There might be trades in-season that will provide additional assets at the position.  But that is discussion for another day.  At the moment, Alexander Urbom is already on the list of what can be called "depth defensemen."  There are others in Hershey that can be added to this list, too.  The contingent there that might be called upon to fill one of those “last three” defensemen the Caps dress this season might include such names as Cameron Schilling, Nate Schmidt, Patrick Wellar, or Patrick Wey.  But there is not a lot of NHL experience there (one game, in fact). 

Who knows…given what might be the situation with Connor Carrick (if he is sent back down to junior or Hershey), and the inevitable injuries and iffy play that occur during an 82-game season, Urbom -- and perhaps some of those others in Hershey -- might end up with some real minutes with the big club before it’s over.

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

What coaches really say to one another

If you missed the entertainment last night, the game between the Anaheim Ducks and the Colorado Avalanche ended with the head coaches for each team jawing at one another and making menacing gestures toward each other.  The 6-1 Avalanche win in Roy's debut as an NHL head coach almost seemed like an afterthought compared to the post-final horn entertainment.  But the video captured only the images.  We found a way to tease out what the coaches were barking at one another...

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: Flames at Capitals, October 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We have now completed 1.22 percent of the National Hockey League’s 2013-2014 season, and we can come to some conclusions about the Washington Capitals.  Well, by “we,” I mean our coaches panel.  It is a renowned group of leaders, winners of titles, all...well, some.  Let’s get their take on what we’ve seen from one game thus far…

Coach Norman Dale.  You won the Indiana high school basketball championship in 1952, taking a small, seven-man team to the title. You were known as something of a disciplinarian, tough but fair.

Coach Dale: “First of all, let's be real friendly here, okay? My name is Norm. Secondly, your prognosticating days are over.”

Whoa, whoa…what brought that on.

Coach Dale: “gotcha”

Good one.  Coach Dale…Norm… What would you say to the Caps as they get ready for their home opener against Calgary after last night’s 6-4 loss in Chicago?

Norman Dale: “I've seen you guys can shoot but there's more to the game than shooting. There's fundamentals and defense.”

Lou Brown.  You took a rag-tag team of wannabes and never-was…es, and took them to the playoffs in Cleveland.  The Caps are a team that seems not to get a lot of respect.  Then they lost their season opener.  Do you have anything special to tell that team before they take the ice for the first time in front of their own fans?

Lou Brown: “All right people, we got 10 minutes 'till game time, let's all gather 'round. I'm not much for giving inspirational addresses, but I'd just like to point out that every newspaper in the country has picked us to finish last…well, all the ones in Canada and Pittsburgh. The local press… all three of them who come out to cover us…seems to think that we'd save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I'm for wasting sportswriters' time. So I figured we ought to hang around for a while and see if we can give 'em all a nice big shitburger to eat!”

John Biebe…sheriff, star of the Saturday game in Mystery, Alaska, and famous player coach.  Caps fans woke up this morning, and being Caps fans are probably thinking that the season is already a goner.  What do you say to them as they file into Verizon Center for the home opener?

Coach Biebe:  “We're not beaten.  I'm not beaten!  We're in this game! Anybody here tired?  Anybody fuckin' tired?  Holts? Connor?  Birdie, you with us? (uh…who’s “Birdie?”)  Never mind... Good! They’re starting to breathe through their mouths. Their strides are getting shorter.  Do not give these guys too much respect.  They didn't pull a dog sled, did they?  They didn't skate the river, did they?  Forget about that fucking circus out there.  That's still black ice.  This is our pond!”

Jimmy Dugan, you were a ball player of some note who became a manager in the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League.  You’ve had to deal with young players afraid to make a mistake.  There was plenty of that on Tuesday.  Do you have any soothing words for players in those situations?

Jimmy Dugan:  “I’d walk right up to them and say, ‘could you come here for a second? Which team do you play for?’  And they’d tell me they played for the Caps.  And I’d say, ‘Well I was just wonderin' why you would go for the big hit there when we’re trying to get the next goal. You let the guy get behind you and we lost the lead because of you. Start using your head. That's the lump that's three feet above your ass!!’  He’d start to sniffle, and I’d say, ‘Are you crying? Are you crying?! ARE YOU CRYING?!?! There's no crying! THERE'S NO CRYING IN HOCKEY!’”

Coach Dale…

“ah ah ah… ‘Norm.’”

Norm… It’s a little early for scoreboard watching, but with the Caps in a division with some heated rivals that are thought to be pretty good, some of that is going to go on.  What do you say to that kind of thinking?

Coach Dale: “If you put your effort and concentration into playing to your potential, to be the best that you can be, I don't care what the scoreboard says at the end of the game, in my book we're gonna be winners.”

Well, the Caps get a chance to be winners for the first time this evening when the Calgary Flames come to visit.  The last time the Flames skated onto Verizon Center ice, the Caps skated off with a 3-1 win.  The usual suspects figured in the scoring for the Caps – Alex Ovechkin had a power play goal and an assist.  Nicklas Backstrom assisted on all three Capitals goals.  Troy Brouwer added a goal, Marcus Johansson an assist.  The win vaulted the Caps over Winnipeg into eighth place in the Eastern Conference.  But what was the lingering image of that night was this…

Rene Bourque was suspended for five games; Nicklas Backstrom missed 40 games.  Bourque since moved on to the Montreal Canadiens, and the Calgary Flames come into this game a team in transition.  That is a polite way of saying that they are not very good. Calgary finished 13^th in the Western Conference last season, able to muster a winning streak as long as three games only once.  That came in April, with the Flames’ fate long since decided. 

The biggest addition to the club in 2013-2014 probably is not a player, which says a lot about the current state of the club.  The biggest addition is most likely Brian Burke, hired as President of Hockey Operations by the club last month.  He has his work cut out for him.  The Flames had a respectable, if unspectacular offense last season (tied for 11^th in scoring offense).  Their defense and goaltending, though…ugh.  With 3.27 goals per game allowed the Flames finished 28^th in scoring defense.  Worse, they did it while allowing only 29.4 shots per game (17th fewest).  Their .889 team save percentage in goal was second-worst in the league.  And that was with Miikka Kiprusoff, a 319-game winner in the NHL manning the nets for 24 games.  Kiprusoff is gone, the goaltending duties left to Joey MacDonald and Karri Ramo.  It could be a long winter in Calgary.

Here is how the teams finished last season, numbers-wise…

1.  This is said to be a “rebuilding” year for the Flames.   However, the Flames roster has seven forwards who are age 30 or older, or will reach that age before the half-way mark of the season.  Three defensemen are 30 or older, and their nominal number one goaltender (Joey MacDonald) is 33.  If the Flames are “rebuilding,” chances are many of the pieces with which they will rebuild are not on this roster.

2.  This is not likely to be a team that scares opponents physically, especially on defense.  Shane O’Brien has his moments, but six of the eight roster defensemen are 200 pounds or lighter.  If they choose to dress Tim Jackman and Brian McGrattan, they can try intimidation, but to the extent they have to play within the rules it is something that can be exploited.

3.  This will be a chance for Capitals fans to renew acquaintances with head coach Bob Hartley, known to fans as the one-time coach of the Atlanta Thrashers (oh yeah, he has a Stanley Cup from coaching in Colorado, too).  In four-plus seasons in Atlanta, ending with his firing in 2007-2008, he was 136-118-13 (ties)-24 in 291 games. 

4.  If Mike Cammalleri cannot go tonight (he has a hand injury), the Flames will ice a team that only two ten-goal scorers last season: Jiri Hudler (10) and Curtis Glencross (15).  They would have only five players who managed 20 or more points (Hudler, Glencross, Lee Stempniak, Matt Stajan, and Dennis Wideman).

5.  If Joey MacDonald is the number one goalie for the Flames, it will be a stiff test for the seven-year veteran.  He has only 122 regular season games of experience over that span and has played in at least half his team’s games only once (49 games with the New York Islanders in 2008-2009).  Since that 2008-2009 season with the Islanders, MacDonald has played for three teams (Toronto, Detroit, and Calgary), and has a record of 22-23-5, 2.65, .907, with one shutout in 56 appearances.  He is 0-2-1, 4.25, .898 in three career appearances against Washington.

1.  The hat trick by Mikhail Grabovski was the first by a Capital in a season opener in franchise history.  The closest a Cap came to doing this was Alexander Semin, who recorded a hat trick in the team’s home opener (game 2 of the season) against the Carolina Hurricanes on October 7, 2006, and Mike Gartner, who scored in the Caps' home opener (game 2 of the season) against the Chicago Blackhawks on October 10, 1987.

2.  The goal scored by Alex Ovechkin in the opener was his first in a season-opening game since he had two against the Boston Bruins in the opening game of the 2009-2010 season.  That happened to be his last 50-goal season.

3.  Season openers do not seem to agree with Braden Holtby.  In his last three season openers, including Tuesday night’s game in Chicago (two with Washington, one with Hershey last season), Holtby is 0-3-0, 5.07, .850.  This would be his first appearance against Calgary, should he get the start.

4.  We don’t want to make too much of this, only one game having been played, but the Caps are last among six teams having started their season in 5-on-5 goals scored to goals allowed ratio (0.25).  They do lead the league in power play conversions, though (50.0 percent).

5.  Nicklas Backstrom has 24 assists in his last 24 regular season games, including the two he had against Chicago on Tuesday.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Mark Giordano

If you were wondering who is the successor to Jarome Iginla as captain of the Calgary Flames, it is defenseman Mark Giordano, the first captain not named “Iginla” since 2003 (Craig Conroy and Bob Boughner, who were co-captains, if you were wondering).  Among returning defensemen Giordano logged the most shorthanded ice time per game last year for the Flames (2:43), making him the guy who could bear the heaviest burden of making sure the Capitals do not get too comfortable setting up their lethal power play.  He cannot be ignored at the other end, though.  Three seasons ago he was 8-35-43 for the Flames. 

Washington: Mikhail Grabovski

The difference between a youngster and a veteran is what they do in the game after they light up the scoreboard.  That will be an especially interesting thing to watch as Mikhail Grabovski makes his debut in front of a Verizon Center crowd tonight.  Grabovski recorded a hat trick in his first game as a Capital, and one might think the temptation is to try to repeat the feat for the home folks.  But one thing that might temper the fans’ expectations is that Grabovski was rather mortal at even strength (one goal scored, on ice for one goal against).  He is 4-2-6, minus-1 in eight career games against the Flames.

Keys:

1.  Don’t underestimate what makes the Flames “special.”  Calgary had their problems at five-on-five last season, but they were pretty good on special teams, finishing sixth in both power play and penalty killing.  Given the Caps’ own sputtering start at five-on-five, they cannot make assumptions about the Flames’ lack of proficiency in special teams.

2.  Move your feet.  The Caps looked a bit flatfooted at times when Chicago was pushing their offense through the neutral zone and into the attacking zone on Tuesday.  Calgary does not have Chicago’s depth of talent, but give any NHL team openings like those the Caps allowed at times in game one, and it could be unpleasant.

3.  3-by-3 need to play 5-by-5.  “Five-by-five” is a phrase that dates back to the days of analog communications.  It is a description of the quality of communications, this being the best possible score.  The Caps are thought to have issues in terms of the drop-off of quality from their top three defensemen to their bottom three, but against Chicago there was enough concern to go around.  It looked at times that the defense was missing on their communications.  This has to improve, especially if there is that drop-off in talent on the bottom half of the blue line.

In the end…

The Caps should make quick work of the Flames.  Calgary is not a good defensive team, they have serious holes among their forwards and defense, their goaltending is iffy at best.  They are not a playoff team, and their best assets are more of the trading variety, likely to be moved in late winter, than they will be contributors to a Flames’ playoff run.  On the other hand, Washington was within a bounce of sending their season opener to overtime against the defending Stanley Cup champions on their rink.  We do not see the Caps getting worse along the way. 

Washington has too many weapons on offense, a sturdier defense (even with their bottom-three issues) and much better goaltending.  And, they have been successful in these home openers, going 6-1-0 over their last seven (outscoring their opponents 30-14 in the process).  If they can keep from getting caught up in the whole “opening night” thing and avoid thinking merely throwing their sticks out there constitutes “effort,” it should be another successful start to the home portion of the schedule.

Capitals 5 – Flames 2

A NO-point night -- Game 1: Blackhawks 6 - Capitals 4

This is where we say, “well, there goes an 82-0-0 season for the Washington Capitals.”

There was, though, something for everyone in the Caps’ 6-4 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks. 

If you were inclined toward making Randy Carlyle or Dave Nonis jokes, there was Mikhail Grabovski scoring three times for his tenth career multi-goal game and his first career hat trick. 

If you were inclined toward sarcasm about Alex Ovechkin flying to Greece for a ten-minute appearance and flying back to Chicago, so drained by jet lag that he scored the Caps’ first goal of the season, well, consider your wishes fulfilled.

If you were a Mike Green fan, you might have been muttering under your breath about not one, but two goals less than five minutes apart taken away by the official scorer and awarded to Grabovski.

If you have been saying that the Caps had issues on the bottom half of their defensive squad, you will have more to say this morning.

If you had hopes that the teens would be keen… it will have to be another night that your hopes are fulfilled.

If you enjoy Pierre McGuire gushing over, well, anything… he gushed like a well in west Texas.

The game actually looked a little like the last pre-season game between these same two teams.  The Blackhawks scored, then the Caps would tie.  The Blackhawks would score again…then the Caps would tie again.  The Hawks would score again.  And the Caps would tie…again.

When Washington took the lead on the Grabovski hat trick goal at 5:16 of the third period, it looked as if the spell had been broken.  Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford looked uneasy after the goal to the point where it seemed a goaltending change to Nikolai Khabibulin was imminent.  But Crawford stopped the last nine shots he faced, the Blackhawks scored the last three goals (the last a goal awarded when Marian Hossa was tripped by Mike Green as Hossa was skating to an empty net), and the Hawks made their championship celebration night complete.

Other stuff…

-- It took Grabovski five games and 67:39 of ice time to get his first three goals last season.  It took 12:50 of ice time to get his hat trick last night.

-- For the second straight opening night, Braden Holtby faced 34 shots.  And, with the same unfortunate results.  Last January, Holtby allowed six goals on 34 shots in a 6-3 loss to Tampa Bay.  Last night, five goals on 34 shots.  Given how he finished his season in 2012-2013, color us unconcerned…for the moment.

-- The Caps grabbed the momentum, so to speak, after the Grabovski hat trick goal at 5:16 of the third period, but let the momentum bleed away after that.  They managed only one shot on goal in the next 10:55 while the Blackhawks scored twice to regain the lead.

-- The good…the Caps were 3-for-6 on the power play.  The bad… they were 0-for-2 on the power play when they had a 5-on-3 chance for 1:26 late in the third period, which they squandered, then let the ensuing 34 second 5-on-4 advantage come up empty.

-- …which means they were entirely too dependent on the power play.  The Blackhawks outshot the Caps, 25-18, at even strength and outscored them, 5-1.

-- Yes, Connor Carrick looked like a rookie last night.  He was on ice for two goals against.  Yes, John Erskine has a bullseye on his back for Caps fans.  He was on ice for two goals last night.  Uh, so was Karl Alzner.  And Mike Green was on ice for three goals.

-- Nine goals is an “Ovechktrick.”  What is nine shots on goal?  Here’s the thing… maybe after a long flight to and back from Greece and a big opening night ceremony, there is a certain adrenaline rush that ensues to keep one going early.  Ovechkin had six shots on goal in the first period, three in the last 40 minutes.  Just spitballin'.

-- We wonder…if it was Brooks Laich scraping behind Corey Crawford and having both feet in the crease as Grabovski was scoring a goal, would that goal have been allowed…last night…in that arena?

-- Holtby will not put this one in the scrapbook (they don’t keep “scrapbooks” anymore, Peerless), but those two saves on breakaways by Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane were keepsakes (do they have “keepsakes?”).

-- The Kane goal…yeah, the one where Toews had both feet in the crease as the puck crossed the goal line.  That one caught Eric Fehr going in precisely the wrong direction, against the grain of the play.  This was opening night, but more important, the first game Fehr played in the middle.  You thought he would be error-free?

In the end, it was an opening night a bit different from others of recent memory.  There were new players – Grabovski, Tom Wilson, Carrick, Michael Latta.  There were familiar players in new roles – Martin Erat getting fourth line minutes, Eric Fehr playing a new position.  This is going to take some sorting out, particularly at even strength (where, frankly, the Caps looked rather poor).  This is why we opined that the Caps will not win the President’s Trophy or their division.  The first month is likely to look, if not as gawd-awful as last season’s, then one prone to fits and starts.

As the season moves on Holtby will be sharper, Wilson and Carrick will get their sea legs under them, Fehr will become more comfortable with his position, Erat will get more ice time.  At least, that is the hoped for evolution.  Tonight, it was apparent that the Caps have promise, but they also have work to do to grow into their promise.

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- The End of It

Today, they start playing for real for the 2013-2014 NHL season as a member of the new Metropolitan Division of the National Hockey League.  Are the Washington Capitals prepared?  We have reason to think they are.  Why?  There are several reasons.

Five-on-Five

This speaks to the heart of the lack of depth at the center position over the last several years.  Yes, last year Mike Ribeiro was quite effective on the power play; he led all NHL centers in power play assists and points last season.  But Ribeiro was 32^nd in the league in even-strength points.  Small wonder.  Of 184 NHL centers playing in at least 20 games last season, Ribeiro was 156^th in 5-on-5 Corsi/on-ice.  He was 158^th in Corsi relative (on-ice less off-ice; numbers from behindthenet.ca).  The Caps ended up 10^th in 5-on-5 goals-scored to goals-allowed ratio, right between Tampa Bay and Phoenix. 

Now, you might say, “Peerless, Mikhail Grabovski was not a whole lot better.”  True, Grabovski was 164^th among those centers last season in Corsi/on-ice at fives.  He was 81^st in Corsi relative.  But that was as much a product (if not more) of the way Grabovski was used by Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Randy Carlyle – as a checking line player – than it was deficiency on the part of the player.  Go back to 2011-2012, when Grabovski was used more in a top-six role.  Among 164 centers playing in at least 40 games he was 30th in Corsi/on-ice at 5-on-5 and seventh in Corsi relative.  Washington’s possession numbers at 5-on-5 will be improved on the second line and thus will be improved overall.  That 5-on-5 goals-scored to goals-allowed ratio will improve.

Power Play 

Last season the Caps were tops in the league in the power play, converting almost 27 percent of their chances.  The easy argument to make here is that with Ribeiro – the league’s top power play point producer – having departed for Phoenix, the Caps’ power play will suffer.  This is where we make a distinction between “productivity” and “performance.” 

It is entirely likely that the Caps will not convert as large a share of their chances this year as they did last season (a point to which we will return in a moment).  Their “outputs” (goals) as a share of “input’ (total chances) will be lower, and productivity will be down.  But ah, there is that whole possession thing again.  This is where we return to chances.  The Caps were 14^th in the league in power play chances last season.  It took them that 26.8 percent conversion rate to sneak past Pittsburgh for the top spot in power play goals scored.  This season, with better possession numbers, one might expect more chances to draw penalties and more power play chances.

Gray Hair 

Two weeks ago, Alex Ovechkin turned 28.  It has been noted that his hair is marked with flecks of gray.    It is not the twilight of his career, by any means, but there is a bit more urgency to fill in the last big piece on his resume – a Stanley Cup.  The big stars in his draft cohort have their prizes.  Evgeni Malkin, taken with the pick after Ovechkin in 205, Sidney Crosby from 2005, Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Patrick Kane, Drew Doughty.  All top five picks taken in the same draft or later than Ovechkin.

He is still performing at a high level.  Being last year’s Hart Trophy winner attests to that.  But he is a more settled player now – settled into his captaincy role, settled into his place in the ensemble.  He is still the straw that stirs the drink, but he is not as much the showman that he was when he was 23.  The maturity that comes with age might be the last piece he needs to push his team to the summit.

Health

Every team has a core – often a combination of forwards and defensemen – on which it depends.  Chicago has Kane, Toews, and Duncan Keith.  Those players missed a combined total of three regular season games last season on their way to a Stanley Cup.  In Los Angeles, Anze Kopitar Dustin Brown, and Drew Doughty missed a total of five games on their march to a championship in 2012.  In 2011 Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, and Milan Lucic missed a combined six games.  In 2010 Kane, Toews and Keith missed a combined six games.  See a pattern?  Stanley Cup winners have good fortune when it comes to health.  The Caps are as healthy as they have been in recent years (Mike Green, we’re looking at you). Even Brooks Laich, who appears to have an annoying hip flexor problem, has not had a recurrence of his groin problems.

Depth and Options

It’s not the “strength and honor” line you might remember from the movie, “Gladiator,” but this might be as important a theme for the Caps as it was for Roman soldiers.  At left wing their depth chart looks like Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, and Jason Chimera.  That is a group that combined for only ten goals in 90 man-games last season (Laich having health problems, Chimera not being able to find the net on 3.3 percent shooting).  But the year before they combined for 50 goals in 244 man games.  That a 17-goal average per 82-games. 

At right wing the depth chart looks like Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, and Eric Fehr.  That trip accounted for 60 goals in 136 games last season, a 36-goal average per 82 games.  Brouwer might not repeat his career best goals per game from last year, but Ovechkin and Fehr are not far outside their performance comfort level.

The center depth is what is noteworthy, give the decade-long lack of it.  Nicklas Backstrom, Mikhail Grabovski, and (perhaps) Martin Erat are all players in their respective prime (Erat the oldest at 32, Backstrom the youngest at 25).  They are all experienced (1,512 regular season games of experience).  They are all productive; the three of them average as a group 20-41-60 per-82 games per man.

With this kind of depth among the three forward lines, head coach Adam Oates has options in finding the right chemistry.  The only set positions, one would think, are the first and second line centers, and the first line right wing.  After that, Oates has players who have demonstrated a level of performance to be not out of place anywhere among the top three forward lines.

The defense has more limited options, but there is an intriguing process that could unfold as the season moves along.  There is a question mark for the Caps after one gets past their top three of Mike Green, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson.  But, if you have lemons, make lemonade.  The Caps have a number of players who, if they have different skill sets (Jack Hillen at one end and, say, John Erskine at the other), enough experience among them in Hillen, Erskine, and Steve Oleksy to try to cobble together a functioning third pair.  Still, this is the weak underbelly of this team.  However, as we will see later, expect this to be addressed.

A Solid Foundation

That sounds like the lost subtitle of a Star Wars movie (maybe between “Revenge of the Sith” and “A New Hope”), but here it applies to the Caps’ goaltending situation.  When it was Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov duking it out to see which would emerge as the number one goaltender, it was a case of two talented guys with next to no game experience at this level.  By the time Varlamov was traded to Colorado in 2011 he had played in only 59 regular season and 19 playoff games for the Caps over three seasons.  At the same time, Neuvirth had played in just 70 regular season and nine playoff games.  That is 157 games of total NHL experience.

Braden Holtby has 157 games of regular season game experience under his belt going into this season.  Plus, he served a complete apprenticeship, brought along deliberately by the Caps after his selection in the 2008 draft.  Perhaps more important, Holtby has been tested in the crucible of the post-season – much more than a goalie of his limited regular season experience might suggest.  He has 21 post season appearances in which he has posted a 2.04 goals against average and a .931 save percentage.  How many goalies have done better over the last two seasons?  Two: Jonathan Quick and Henrik Lundqvist.

Then there is Neuvirth.  He has added 51 games of experience since the Varlamov trade.  He has struggled some in those games (17-17-7 win-loss record, a GAA north of 2.50, a save percentage south of .910), but he has a lot more game and playoff experience than most backup goaltenders.  This is as solid a goaltending foundation as the Caps have had at any time since Olaf Kolzig left the club.

The Long Game

It is October.  Capital Nation is grousing about this move or that, this move not made or that.  Since 2007-2008, general manager George McPhee has added the following notables in-season… Cristobal Huet, Sergei Fedorov, Matt Cooke, Jason Chimera, Eric Belanger, Joe Corvo, Milan Jurcina, Scott Walker, Scott Hannan, Marco Sturm, Dennis Wideman, and Jason Arnott.  They will not be noisy about it, they will downplay their activity in the market, they will not let you see it coming, but it seems likely that they will be actively (if quietly) looking to tweak their roster further over the next five months.

The Rest of the Playbook

We cannot know at this moment if the Caps got the full Adam Oates treatment last season.  Intuitively, the lack of a full training camp, a cramped schedule, and unfamiliarity bred of newness could lead one to believe that there was still more in the playbook that was left to this season to introduce.  Adam Oates has had that full training camp.  He has a clearer picture of what he has here.  There could be some surprises or wrinkles left to spring.

***** 

This is as complete a squad the Washington Capitals have iced since their Stanley Cup finals team in 1998.  They have depth and versatility at forward.  They have very good and improving top end defense.  They have a healthy mix of youth and experience – in the same players – in goal.  They have an imaginative technician and effective communicator behind the bench.  They are not flashy, but they are active in player markets to address needs. 

The Caps will not win the Presidents Trophy (Chicago will).  They will not win the Metropolitan Division (Pittsburgh is our pick).  No matter.  The Caps have won both, a Presidents Trophy in 2010 and the Southeast Division title seven times.  A lot of good it did them.  No, they will not win those titles.  They will win the one that matters.  Write it down…

Washington Capitals
Stanley Cup Champions 2014

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 1: Capitals at Blackhawks, October 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!!

That’s right, kids. It has been 141 days since we did one of these, and we hope you’ll forgive us if we are a little rusty. Since the last time we prognosticated in anger, a lot of things have gone on…

• Mike Ribeiro picked up his cool hat and moved on to Phoenix
• Wojtek Wolski went to the KHL.
• They figured out the mechanism that causes human allergies to cats.
• Matt Hendricks went to Nashville.
• Pluto’s fourth and fifth moons were named “Kerberos” and “Styx.”  Wait…what?! When did Pluto get five moons?
• Joey Crabb went to Florida, which has become the Island of Misfit Toys.
• Two Popes were named saints.
• Caps held development camp, and everyone was impressive. Some more than others.
• A new language was discovered in Australia… “Light Warlpiri” (still waiting on “Heavy Warlpiri”).
• Tom Poti is still looking for work.
• The Duchess of Cambridge gave birth to a baby boy, who has already been linked to a bevy of starlets in the tabloid press.
• The Caps signed Mikhail Grabovski.
• Will and Mack got engaged.
• A youngster named Connor Carrick was the hit of training camp and made the team as a 19-year old one year removed from his being drafted.
• The United States government finally acknowledged the existence of “Area 51.”
• Tom Wilson made the team.
• Grand Theft Auto V sales hit the $1 billion mark 3 days after its release in stores.
• Mathieu Perreault was traded.

But now it’s time to start the 2013-2014 season…on time, for a change. And what better way to do it than to be the foil for the Stanley Cup champions at their banner raising. That’s right, the Caps get to open their 39th season of hockey (some would argue their 31st season… God only knows what to call what they were playing those first eight years) in the Windy City, paying a visit to the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center. Guess we’ll get an early measuring stick to see where the Caps stand as a contender. In the meantime, here is how the clubs finished the season…

1. Chicago finished 4-0-2 in the preseason, one of three teams to finish without a loss in regulation. Five of their six games were one-goal decisions, four of them in extra time, three of them ending in a trick shot competition.

2. Despite winning the Stanley Cup in two of the last four seasons, the Blackhawks come into this season with a sub-.500 franchise record. At 2496-2535-814-97 (.497 points percentage), they rank 21st of the 30 teams in franchise points percentage.

3. Since the 2004-2005 lockout, Chicago is 3-3-2 in home openers. Six of the eight games were one-goal decisions, three of them going to the trick shot competition.

4. Last season Chicago finished in the top five in: standings points (1st), scoring offense (2nd), scoring defense (1st), 5-on-5 goal ratio (1st), penalty killing (3rd), shots on goal per game (5th), shots allowed per game (4th), shot differential (2nd), winning when out-shooting their opponent (1st), winning when being outshot by their opponent (4th), winning when scoring first (1st), winning when trailing first (2nd), winning when leading after one period (2nd), winning when trailing after two periods (1st). On the other hand, their power play finished only 19th.

5.  Chicago had 17 players finish the 2012-2013 season with at least ten points.  They accomplished that feat in 48 games.  In 2011-2012 they had 18 players reach that level in 82 games.

1. Washington finished 4-0-4 in the preseason, another of the three teams to finish the preseason without a loss in regulation time.  Six of the eight games were one-goal decisions, all of them went to extra time, and four of them finished with a Gimmick.  The Caps were 2-4 in those one-goal decision games.

2. Since 2006-2007, the Caps have alternated wins and losses in their road opener. Last year, they lost at Tampa Bay, 6-3. The Caps have opened the road portion of their season in Chicago only once. It was not pretty. The Blackhawks beat the Caps, 8-4, on October 19, 1980. That was a big night for the home team, too. It was the night the Blackhawks retired their first player number. Stan Mikita was the honoree.

3.  Only nine of the top 12 scorers from last year’s squad return for the Capitals in 2013-2014; those nine are the only returning double-digit point getters from last season.

4.  No team won more games when trailing at the end of two periods last year than the Caps.  They won five such games (tied with St. Louis and Anaheim).  They also won the most games (nine) when trailing after one period.

5.  When Adam Oates won 27 games as the Caps head coach last year, it was the fifth highest win total for a Caps head coach in his first season (not bad, considering he did it in 48 games).  That would be more than the combined first year win totals of Roger Crozier, Milt Schmidt, Tom McVie, and Glen Hanlon (a combined 25 wins) in 107 games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Patrick Sharp

Sure, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are the Butch and Sundance of the Chicago Blackhawks, but lost in the accolades bestowed upon that pair is the performance of Patrick Sharp.  Since the 2009-2010 season, when the Blackhawks won their first Stanley Cup since the 2004-2005 lockout, the eleventh-year veteran is third on the team in total goals (98, behind Toews and Kane), third in points, third in plus-minus, third in power play goals. 

He did this despite last year missing 19 regular season games to a shoulder injury.  He was right there again, though, in the 2013 playoffs, finishing first on the team in goals, third in points, first in power play goals, tied for the team lead in game-winning goals, and first in shots on goal.

Washington:  Eric Fehr

Since the Caps started on their six-year playoff run in 2007-2008, the top scorers are familiar names.  Alex Ovechkin is first, Nicklas Backstrom is second, Mike Green (among players still with the team) is third.  Would it surprise you to know that among players on the opening night roster, Eric Fehr is fifth?  He was one of only eight players in the league to play in 41 or fewer games and finish plus-14 or better.  And, he save the best for last.  Of his nine goals, three were scored in the second period, four in the third, and two in overtime (both against Boston).  He has faced Chicago only twice, recording a goal an assist.

Keys:

1.  Ceremonial Stiffness.  This will be the celebration of the Stanley Cup banner-raising in Chicago with the attendant pomp and ceremony.  That means more sitting around than usual after the pre-game skate around.  The Caps can’t let a combination of stiffness and the Blackhawks’ adrenaline put them behind the eight-ball early.  And that’s something the hawks did often last year; they were 26-2-1 in games in which they scored first.  If the Caps can get out of the first ten minutes tied, consider it a plus.

2.  Shoot!  The Blackhawks have few weaknesses, but goalie Corey Crawford facing a lot of shots might be one of them.  Last season he was 4-2-2 when facing more than 30 shots (15-3-3 when facing 30 or fewer).

3.  Feel the Power.  The Caps were 10-5-2 in road games in which they scored a power play goal.  They were 2-5-0 in their other road games.  Win with power.

In the end…

Caps fans are likely to read a lot into this game, more so if they lose.  But it is a good measuring stick to see where the Caps are, and more important, where they need to go.  Chicago might not win a second consecutive Stanley Cup, but until proven otherwise, they are the class of the league. 

The trick for the Caps is going to be containing the Blackhawk offense.  Chicago was 11-1-0 when scoring at least five goals.  They were 9-5-4 when scoring two or fewer.  This is something the Caps are certainly capable of; they held 21 opponents to two or fewer goals last season and went 18-2-1 in those games.

Capitals 3 – Blackhawks 2

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 1

We are at the end.  Fearless is down to the last element – actually the first – in the periodic table of the elements.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe.  It constitutes about 75 percent of the known mass of the universe and is the predominant element in stars.  Here on earth we know it as a gas in its native state that is plentiful (mostly as a constituent of water and organic molecules) and highly combustible.  It is highly flammable in air and will burn along a wide range of concentrations.  It can form explosive mixtures that may be ignited by electrical discharge, heat, or even sunlight.

Its discovery dates back to the late 1600’s when Robert Boyle, an Irish chemist (among other pursuits), who was fiddling around with iron filings and dilute acids.  The reaction produced hydrogen gas.  It would not be until almost a century later that Henry Cavendish, a British chemist and physicist, recognized the discrete nature of hydrogen, which he called “flammable air.”  This was part of that whole “phlogiston” theory thing (phlogiston being an element released as a result of combustion).  Despite that little detour down Peiodic Table Lane, Cavendish is credited with the discovery of hydrogen.  As for its name, that was the product of the French chemist Antoine-Laurent de Lavoisier, who name it “hydrogen,” a combination of the Greek words for water (“hydro”) and for creator (“genes”).

Hydrogen serves as an element to be consumed in a number of industrial processes, oil and chemical production being two of the most important.  It is also used in welding processes, in electricity generation, leak detection, and nuclear fission processes.  It can be found in automotive, chemical, power generation, aerospace, and telecommunications applications.

One of its most infamous applications was its use as the lifting gas in airships.  Its flammable characteristics revealed themselves with disastrous consequences when the airship Hindenburg exploded in flame as it was approaching its mooring mast at Lakehurst Naval Iar Station, New Jersey, following a trans-Atlantic flight. The accident on May 6, 1937 effectively ended the use of hydrogen gas in airships.

We are left, finally with the element of elements.  Hydrogen, with its simple atomic structure of a single proton and a single electron, is among the most important elements in the universe.  It is essential to life on earth, mostly as a constituent of water.  It is reactive, even flammable across a wide range of conditions.

In the end, it is not unlike a part of Capitals Nation that occupies a uniquely elemental place in the life of the franchise.  It is abundant and certainly reactive (especially when the New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, or Pittsburgh Penguins come to town).  It is essential to the life of the franchise, for without it, nothing else results.

Hydrogen… the “Washington Capitals Fans” of the periodic table of the elements, the element from which all other elements derive and have purpose.