The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 4: Hurricanes at Capitals, October 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is Game 4 of the 2013-2014 season, which as Washington Capitals fans know is “must-win”…”do or die”…”fish or cut bait”…”face the music”… go “balls to the wall”…

“Uh, cuz?”

Yes, Cheerless

“Why would anyone have their balls up on a wall?”

Not the same kind of balls, Cheerless.

“You mean, more like the balls they make Rocky Mountain oysters out of?”

No…NO!  Geez, Cheerless, it’s too early for that…

“So, what do you mean?”

OK, it has nothing to do with anatomy, OK?  It comes from old time fighter aircraft.  They had knobs at the top of their throttle controls.

“Knobs are like balls?”

Yeah, I suppose.  And when the pilot pushed his throttle all the way forward, he pushed the “balls” of his throttle handle all the way to the “wall” of his cockpit.

“Wait…’balls?’…’cockpit?’…you sure this has nothing to do with…”

OK!...So, the Caps return to action Thursday night, hosting their long-time rivals, if by “long-time,” you mean since 1997-1998…

“Oh, since the Caps were in a Stanley Cup final…ancient history.”

Hush up.  Anyway, the Hurricanes come to visit Verizon Center to open what will be for the Caps their longest home stand of the season, five games.  Carolina comes into this game having played three games against A-list teams, at least as far as gate and TV appeal are concerned – Detroit, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh – going 1-1-1 in the process.

Even though this is just Game 4 for the Hurricanes, they already have issues.  First, injury issues.  Tuomo Ruutu, who missed all but 17 games last year to injury, started the season on injured reserve with a lower body injury that is said to be unrelated to a hip injury that caused him to miss 29 games last season.  Defenseman Joni Pitkanen is out for the season with a heel injury he suffered last April in a game against the Caps, on a play that might have been the last straw in the league adopting a hybrid icing rule…

Tim Gleason, a defenseman with 599 games of regular season experience, is out with a concussion, further depleting the Hurricane blue line.

What it has meant for Carolina thus far is that the club dressed two defensemen who did not play for the club last season (Andrej Sekera and Ron Hainsey), two with a combined 18 games of NHL experience (Brett Bellimore and Ryan Murphy), and two others (Justin Faulk and Jay Harrison) who are a combined minus-43 for their respective careers.

Not that the offense has been firing on all cylinders, yet, either.  Carolina scored two goals in each of their first three games.  As if it matters.  Cam Ward has had a start similar to that of Braden Holtby for the Caps in goal.  Ward is 0-1-1, Holtby is 0-2-0.  Ward has a goals-against average of 3.90, Holtby’s is 4.48.  Ward has a save percentage of .893, Holtby is at .848.  There are two differences to note, though.  Holtby has gotten better in his three appearances, at least a little.  After allowing eight goals on 45 shots in his first two games, he stopped 19 of 21 in the Caps’ 2-1 loss to Dallas last Saturday.  Ward, however, followed up a 35-save effort in a 3-2 overtime loss to Detroit in the season opener with allowing five goals on 37 shots in a 5-2 loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

Here is how the teams compared in their numbers last season…

1.  Carolina had the worst special teams index in the league last season (sum of power play and penalty killing percentages) – 92.2.  So far this season, they are 22^nd, if with a worse number – 86.1.

2.  Carolina’s power play can be summed up in one word, “futile,” at least by one measure.  The Hurricanes have one power play goal on nine chances in 17:05 of power play time. Only three teams – Philadelphia, Anaheim, and Detroit – spend more time per power play.  Since scoring ends a power play, a lot of power plays are running their full measure.

3.  Of the 20 players to dress for Carolina so far this season, six were not with the club last season (including both of their top goal scorers – Nathan Gerbe and Radek Dvorak), and three more played in fewer than 10 games with the club last season.

4.  Eric Staal and Alexander Semin have been on ice for just one goal scored by the Hurricanes so far this season, that coming on Carolina’s first goal (scored by Staal) in the Hurricane’s 5-2 loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday.  Jiri Tlusty, who led Carolina in goals last season (23) has not been on ice for a goal scored by Carolina thus far.

5.  Carolina struggled with an unraveling defense through three games.  Their goals by period go: one in the first, two in the second, and five in the third (plus one overtime goal allowed).  Only New Jersey has allowed more third period goals.

1.  Of the 20 skaters appearing for the Caps thus far, only Marcus Johansson is a “plus” player (plus-1).

2.  Joel Ward and Eric Fehr both have been on ice for seven goals against thus far, tied for fourth most in the league.  It could be worse… Ales Hemsky (9) and Taylor Hall (7) rank worst and tied for fourth worst for Edmonton, and Mike Richards (8) and Jeff Carter (7) rank second and tied for fourth for Los Angeles (before Wednesday's games).

3.  Alex Ovechkin scored a power play goal in each of the Caps’ three games so far this season, the third time he has scored power play goals in three straight games in his career.  It is the third straight season in which he accomplished the feat.  He has never had a four-game streak.

4.  Mike Green is second in the league in average ice time (28:18).  That is 2:32 more than his highest average ice time in a full season.

5.  With a win in this game, Adam Oates can pass Danny Belisle for 11^th place in wins among coaches in Caps franchise history.  They are currently tied with 28 career wins.  The difference being Belisle needed 96 games to get to 28 wins, Oates needed 51 (50, actually).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Andrej Sekera

For seven seasons defenseman Andrej Sekera toiled in the anonymity that playing in Buffalo affords.  It did not mean he was ineffective for the Sabres.  In six full seasons with Buffalo he averaged 20 minutes of ice time per game and averaged 4-18-22 per 82 games. Then came a trade to Carolina at the NHL entry draft last June, for defenseman Jamie McBain and a draft pick. 

It is early for the Hurricanes, but Sekera leads the club in shorthanded ice time per game.  That would put him right in the cross-hairs of the Caps’ league-leading power play, especially since playing on the left side, he is going to be having to deal with Mikhail Grabovski down low and keeping an eye on Nicklas Backstrom along the right wing wall.

Washington: 2^nd line/3^rd line

Yeah, this is not one player to ponder, but what we are pondering here is: a) can the second line of Brooks Laich, Mikhail Grabovski, and Troy Brouwer score (they have no goals yet as a line); and b) can the third line of Jason Chimera, Eric Fehr, and Joel Ward keep anyone from scoring (they have the league’s 3^rd, 4^th, and 12^th worst goals against-on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 among forwards)?  This is the fault line that is causing the even strength problems for the Caps.

Keys:

1.  Early returns.  The Capitals have two first period goals so far this season, both of them of the power play variety.  Carolina has allowed only one first period goal through three games.  Given the Hurricanes’ struggles in the third period (five goals allowed in through three games), the Caps can kill two birds with one stone with a good start.  First, get off the schneid at even strength; second, put the Hurricanes behind the eight-ball, where they might face only a steeper climb back into the game.

2.  Staal ‘em.  Eric Staal has the second worst Corsi/on-ice at 5-on-5 and has been on ice for more goals against than any other player for the Hurricanes.  Only three forwards had a worse Corsi value last season for Carolina, and Eric was on ice for more goals against than any other forward except his brother Jordan.  The Caps can make the Hurricanes pay when he is on the ice (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

3.  Top Pair = Top Notch.  Mike Green and Karl Alzner are each minus-3 for the Caps so far, worst on the club among defensemen.  Alzner has the only even strength point between them.  Both are getting more than 20 minutes of even strength ice time per game.  That is a lot of exposure for them to be getting, well, exposed. 

In the end…

The last time the Caps had a five-game home stand (February 28 – March 8, 2012) the Caps failed to win a game in regulation, were shutout twice, and went 2-2-1.  That’s a way of saying, take nothing for granted.  This is an opportunity to get off on the right foot at home to put together a solid October.  This is important.  Yes, the Caps came back to go 25-10-2 after starting 2-8-1 last season.  The year before they finished 26-18-7 after starting 16-14-1 (including going 9-14-1 after a 7-0-0 start).  But really, do the Caps want to go to the well a third time with that sort of pattern?  You cannot win a Stanley Cup in October, but you can lose one.  The object of the exercise is to avoid the latter, and that means getting off on the right foot on a long home stand.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2

Washington Capitals: It's Early...It's Early

Was just looking up some old Caps this morning, and we put together a Caps active alumni group that looks something like this...

As a group, this team has nine goals so far.  Well, so do the Caps.  This group has six players in plus-territory.  The Caps have one.  This group has a goalie who is top-five in goals against and save percentage.  The Caps have a number one goalie who is on the second page of the NHL.com statistics in both.

Truth be told, though, would you like the long term prospects of that first line, one that might need a map and a flashlight to find their own end of the ice?  And at this point, ditto for that first defensive pair (which, by the way, as primarily "offensive" defensemen has combined for no points so far).  And the backup goalie is out!

Just another way of saying to Caps fans, "stop whining!"  Oh, and to the Caps..."stop sucking (at even strength)!"

It's early...It's early.

Sittin' at the end of the bar... Shutdown Edition

Nothing better on a another shutdown morning than curling up with a cup o' bee... uh, cup o' joe and the NHL news.  Well, lookee here...

-- No Capital defenseman is “plus” through three games.  Only John Carlson is “even.”

-- John Carlson is “even.”  Why?  Because despite only being on ice for one goal against in more than 61 minutes of even strength ice time, the Caps have scored only one even strength goal.

-- Did you have Marcus Johansson tied for second in the league in assists?  Twice as many as Sidney Crosby!

-- Only 26 out of 386 forwards have fewer shots on goal than Marcus Johansson.  Fewer than Spencer Abbott!  Fewer than Zac Rinaldo!!  As many as… Michael Latta!!!

-- Two players in the NHL are averaging at least one minute per shift…Mike Green (1:02) and Alex Ovechkin (1:00).

-- So far, defensemen have one even strength assist for the Caps, and that belongs to, drum roll, please… Karl Alzner!!!

-- So far, defensemen for the Caps have one even strength goal, and that belongs to, drum ro… ah, #@$% it… Connor Carrick!!!  Who happens to be tied for the league lead in goals among rookie defensemen.

-- Last season, Mike Green finished tied for 85^th among defensemen in blocked shots.  So far this season…tied for fifth.

-- Last season, Mike Green had 14 takeaways in 35 games.  He already has four in three games so far.

-- Eric Fehr is fifth in the league in faceoff winning percentage.  He has taken 32 draws this season (21-11; 65.6 percent).  In his previous nine seasons he took a total of 25 draws (5-20, 20.0 percent).

-- Mikhail Grabovski and Alex Ovechkin are a combined 7-for-31 in shooting (22.6 percent).  The rest of the team is 2-for-66 (3.0 percent).

-- Only three goaltenders having faced at least 30 even strength shots have a save percentage worse than Braden Holtby.  Two of them are Roberto Luongo and Martin Brodeur.

-- Filip Forsberg has played in one game, taken one shot, and scored one goal for the Nashville Predators; Mathieu Perreault has two goals on six shots and is tied for the team lead in points for the Anaheim Ducks.

All of what you’ve just read just means it’s early.

Washington Capitals: Winning with Power I

Since we have a little time on our hands between now and the next time the Washington Capitals take the ice, we thought we would spend the time by taking a look at what we once referred to as “The National Mall Power Play.”  It has been efficient, to say the least, in the early going.  And, it is ruthless in taking advantage of openings in opponent’s penalty killing structure.  How much?  We will take a look at the successful power plays to date, starting with Game 1 in Chicago…

Here we pick things up 27 seconds into the Caps’ first power play of the season.  What you see is that the Blackhawks are in a perfect four-square defensive position with Mike Green (52) holding the puck at the top of the 1-3-1 formation…

In the second frame, Green moves the puck to Nicklas Backstrom (19) at the right wing wall.  Backstrom has his head up looking first through the horizontal axis of the formation – Troy Brouwer in the middle and Alex Ovechkin at the far side.  Duncan Keith (2) has his stick in a position to challenge a pass to Brouwer, while Joakim Nordstrom (42) has dropped down to challenge a through-pass to Ovechkin, who has moved below the face-off dot.  As innocuous as this looks from the defensive side, the breakdown is already in motion.  Why?  Because what is going on in the far side of the formation with Nordstrom and defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson (4).  And what is that?...

Backstrom moved the puck down to Mikhail Grabovski at the goal line extended to goalie Corey Crawford’s left.  And this is where the breakdown on the far side of the formation is now fatal.  Hjalmarsson has backed down almost to the goal line to Crawford’s right.  He cannot defend anything in front of him easily.  Nordstrom’s decision to collapse on Troy Brouwer in the middle proves even more problematic, especially since Marcus Kruger (16) is in a position to defend on Brouwer’s stick side.  Chicago is left with two defenders on Brouwer, Duncan Keith unable to pivot to Grabovski (remember, he had his stick in the lane for a pass to Brouwer; he has to bring his body and stick all the way around to defend Grabovski), and Hjalmarsson…well, he’s in a no-man’s land…

By the time Grabovski’s pass through the crease gets to Ovechkin (a lane having opened because of decisions made by Hjalmarsson and Nordstrom on the far side of the play).  Nordstrom has collapsed on Brouwer, and Hjalmarsson has too much space to cover to deny Ovechkin the open shooting angle…

The entire sequence took eight seconds.  Eight seconds to break down what was a solid four-square defense into two defenders out of position and two others helpless to cover up for that problem.

*****

Let’s go to the second Capitals power play scored in this game.  This sequence starts with a faceoff in the Chicago zone between Nicklas Backstrom and Jonathan Toews 54 seconds into the third period.  Backstrom wins the faceoff.  Not, perhaps, all that unusual, but it is what happens just after the faceoff that will pose a problem for the Blackhawks.  Toews (19 in black) cannot get past Backstrom (19 in red) to challenge Alex Ovechkin at the left point.  That task then falls to Marian Hossa (81), who is charging out from the hash marks at the edge of the left wing circle…

As Ovechkin winds to take a slap shot, Hossa is still trying to close the distance, Toews is still tangled up with Backstrom.  What this means is that defenseman Johnny Oduya (27) has the right side of the ice to himself to defend as Mikhail Grabovski spins into the slot and Mike Green slides over to the right point…

Hossa having bitten on Ovechkin showing “slap shot,” Ovechkin slides the puck over to Green on the right point.  Green has nothing but clean ice in front of him, three of the four defenders to the far side of the left wing hash marks and the other defender (Oduya) occupied by Grabovski in front…

Oduya has a choice to make.  Allow Green to take a free windup and shot at the Chicago net, tying up Grabovski should any rebound occur, or try to close the angle on Green to either block a shot or force Green to shoot wide.  Oduya chooses the latter, but Green had the advantage of so much space to receive and tee up a shot. What complicates the problem for the Blackhawks is that not one, but two Capitals have inside position on Blackhawk defenders, Grabovski on Brent Seabrook (7), who has tried to slip in behind Oduya to defend Grabovski, and Troy Brouwer (20) on Toews.  The Caps not only have an open shot from the point, they have two players in position to redirect the shot unless Oduya can block the drive…

It is Grabovski who manages to get just enough of Green’s drive to redirect it past goalie Corey Crawford.  The entire sequence took five seconds…

*****

The third power play goal for the Caps in this game took longer to unfold.  Play started with a faceoff at the 4:21 mark, the Capitals getting shot attempts from Alex Ovechkin (on goal) and Nicklas Backstrom (blocked) as part of the sequence.  The puck worked its way to Backstrom (19) on the right wing wall.  The Blackhawks are in solid defensive position.  Joakim Nordstrom has a stick in position to challenge Troy Brouwer (20) in the middle, Duncan Keith (2) has a stick in position to challenge a pass to Mikhail Grabovski (84) along the goal line extended.  Marcus Kruger (16) has backside coverage if Backstrom tries to slid a pass across ice to Alex Ovechkin (8).  So far, so good…

Even with the coverages, Backstrom had options.  He found Grabovski down low, but even here the Blackhawks look to be in decent shape.  Keith has Grabovski covered for anything but a pass back to Backstrom; Nordstrom is in position to tie up Brouwer’s stick, and there is no lane to thread a pass to Ovechkin at the left wing faceoff dot.  But things are not what they seem, either…

The puck comes back to Backstrom, and now Chicago has a problem.  All four defenders are at or below the hash marks, giving Backstrom a lot of free ice to survey or into which he can skate to force a response on his own...

Backstrom steps up into the open space at the top of the right wing circle.  Nordstrom inches out for the Blackhawks.  Kruger is defending a pass to Ovechkin, who has his stick cocked for a one-timer.  The Blackhawks cannot cover everyone, though, and there is Mike Green (52) at the top of the formation with all that clear white ice in front of him…

Mike Green has a clear shooting lane with the two defenders on top too deep and too wide to challenge a shot.  And everyone is looking at him…Backstrom, Ovechkin, Brouwer… Kruger, Nordstrom… and Duncan Keith (2).  It is Keith “peeking into the backfield” like a defensive back in football that allows Grabovski (84) to make a bee-line for the net and get inside position as Green is winding up and firing...

Keith has ceded inside position to Grabovski, who has an unencumbered opportunity to make use of his stick to redirect the puck past goalie Corey Crawford.  The whole sequence takes ten seconds…

The examples differ.  One sequence starts with Mike Green at the top of the 1-3-1 power play formation, another with a faceoff, and the last with Nicklas Backstrom set up along the right wing wall.  But they are similar in that they force the Blackhawks into making decisions that unwind their defensive structure.  In the first, the weak-side defenders end up making poor decisions – Joakim Nordstrom essentially double teaming Troy Brouwer, and Niklas Hjalmarsson getting caught deep giving Alex Ovechkin a clean shooting lane.  In the second, Johnny Oduya does not make a bad decision as much as he picks the lesser of two difficult ones.  In the third, Duncan Keith gets caught peeking to allow Mikhail Grabovski a lane to dart to the net and get inside position for a redirect.

In all three examples the decisions were made in the blink of an eye (the combined elapsed time of the three examples is 23 seconds of clock time), the Caps using the vision and hands of Niklas Backstrom, the shooting talent of Mike Green and Alex Ovechkin to direct pucks on net, and the opportunism of Mikhail Grabovski to put himself in a position to create havoc in front of the goaltender.  When it works, it forces and takes advantage of breakdowns that compel defenders to make a decision in a split-second.  If it is the wrong one, or one made hesitantly, the goalie is left in a difficult position. 

(images: screen captures from NBCSN broadcast/NHL.com)

 

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 1

This is the first installment of our weekly feature, “That Was The Week That Was,” named for a television show that aired in both an English and an American version back in the mid-1960’s.  Its stock and trade was satire.  We are tempted to use that tool after this week’s play by the Washington Capitals, but for now, we’ll just play it straight.

The facts are that the Caps were within a shift and a glove save of going 3-0 for the week. They were also within a Gimmick of going 0-3.  That is the edge on which the Caps played this week.  As it was, they ended up…

Record: 1-2-0

Here’s the good news, if you’re looking at the big picture.  In 2009-2010, when the Capitals won their only President’s Trophy for the best record in the league, they started the season 2-2-2.  This past week the Caps lost two of three games, each loss being essentially of the one-goal type (they allowed an awarded empty net goal against Chicago in a 6-4 loss on Tuesday).

How does one get in the position to lose twice in three games and fail to win a third game in regulation?  Fall behind.  In no game this week did the Caps take a lead into the first intermission.  They trailed twice after 20 minutes and were tied in the other instance.  For the record, the Caps didn’t hold a lead after 40 minutes in any game this week, either.  Hard to dictate pace and personnel when you are always looking uphill.

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 3.00 / rank:T-12^th)

Nine goals for the week is not bad on the surface of it, but the Caps also played two games against teams without top-notch defenses in Calgary and Dallas.  The Caps had enough to come back from two three-goal deficits to force extra time, but not nearly enough against Dallas to add to the lone goal they scored less than five minutes into their last game of the week.

The Caps did not lack for shots on the week, recording 97 in all.  Nine goals scored in those 97 shots (9.3 percent) was below their shooting percentage for last season (10.8 percent).  It does not sound like much.  If the Caps had shot to last year’s shooting percentage they would have scored one more goal, but here is the thing.  Because of the way the week unfolded, one more goal could have meant one more standings point, perhaps two.  One more goal against Chicago before the empty netter?  It could have forced an overtime or a shootout with a different result.  One more goal against Calgary in regulation (fortunate to win in the Gimmick, eh?)?  One more goal against Dallas to tie the game, perhaps on that last flurry in front of the Stars’ net?  Again, perhaps with a different result in extra time.  A thin margin between a decent week (perhaps 1-1-1, or even 2-1-0), and a losing week.

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 4.00 / rank: T-26^th)

What’s with the slow starts on the defensive side of the ledger?  Last year the Caps allowed 14 goals in their first three games, 10 in the year before that, 11 in 2009-2010, ten in 2008-2009.  It has been a persistent theme in recent years.  Caps fans might look to goaltending (and we will get to that), but there is concern elsewhere – the blue line.  Looking at non-empty net goals scored against at even strength, by pairing it goes like this:

Alzner/Green: 3

Hillen-Oleksy/Carrick: 2

Erskine/Carlson: 1

Erskine/Green: 1

Erskine/Carrick: 1

Erskine/Oleksy: 1

The problem you might have been expecting to be revealed was.  John Erskine was on ice for four ES goals against with four different partners.  On the one hand, that speaks to lack of continuity, there being four different partners.  On the other hand, he was the common element.  And, there is that third pair problem with the Jack Hillen-Steve Oleksy/Connor Carrick pair being on ice for two goals in three games.  The concern, though, is Karl Alzner and Mike Green being on ice as a pair for a third of the non-empty net/even strength goals-against for the week.  That’s a goal against a game.  Last year Alzner averaged 0.75 goals against/game at 5-on-5, Green averaged 0.77 goals against at 5-on-5.  If that pair is on for one fewer goal against this past week, it could have been another standings point.  Thin margins.

Goaltending: 3.61 GAA  / .883 save percentage (season: 3.61 / .883)

This week was a case of the good (Michal Neuvirth), the bad (Braden Holtby in one game and change), and optimism (Holtby in the third game of the week).  Let’s start with Holtby.  Here are three sets of numbers:

4.03, .882

5.04, .863

6.35, .822

Those happen to be Holtby’s goals against averages and save percentages for the first two games of his 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 NHL seasons, respectively.  He is a slow starter, apparently.  But then there is this…

1.63, .938

That is his goals against and save percentage in his third game over each of those seasons, including last night’s 19 saves on 21 shots effort against Dallas.  He seems to find a way to work these things out.  And the first thing that needs to be worked out is the first period -- a .786 save percentage for the week in the opening frame.

Then there is Michal Neuvirth.  He relieved Holtby 16:22 into the game against Calgary with the Flames having just scored to take a 3-0 lead.  He stopped 27 of 28 shots he faced, stopped the bleeding, and gave the Caps a chance to try to climb back into the game.  The Caps did, winning in the trick shot competition, giving Neuvirth the win.  It made Neuvirth 3-0-1, 1.83, .945 in his last four appearances dating back to last season.  It might not be the stuff of a goalie controversy (Holtby was back in then net in the next game, against Dallas), but it was a bright spot for the Caps in an otherwise iffy week.

Power Play: 6-12 / 50.0 percent (season: 50.0 percent / rank: 1^st)

This was the other bright spot for the week.  The Caps recorded power play goals in all three games and looked positively terrifying in doing it.  Six goals (first in the league) on 24 shots (third) in just 13:01 of total power play time (15^th).  It was made even more frightening for goaltenders to know that the Caps scored six power play goals in just 11:35 of 5-on-4 power play time.  Ah, but there is the key – 5-on-4 power play time.  The Caps also enjoyed 1:26 of 5-on-3 power play time late in the third period in their game against Chicago and failed to score on four shots (seven attempts).  It was the continuation of a level of performance that had the Caps leading the league in 5-on-4 goals scored last season (41) while scoring only one goal at 5-on-3 (only four teams failed to score at 5-on-3).

Penalty Killing: 9-11 / 81.8 percent (season: 81.8 percent / rank: T-15^th)

An 81.8 percent kill rate is by no means bad (the Caps are tied with the Los Angeles Kings at the moment, a team thought to be pretty good on defense), but it is the how they got to that number that was a bit unsettling.  The power play goal allowed to Chicago was a product of: a) unchallenged entry into the Capitals’ zone; b) allowing Marian Hossa to walk down a lane between a flatfooted Martin Erat and John Erskine, take a pass, and get the first shot on Braden Holtby; and c) getting caught deep on the weak side defense to allow Brent Seabrook to step in and bury the rebound.  The other was a product of Calgary’s Mikael Backlund being allowed to set up without adequate challenge (Connor Carrick) in front of Braden Holtby, screening the goalie as Jiri Hudler let fly with a slap shot that Holtby saw too late.  Aggressiveness, or the lack of it, led to two goals.  Even though players are singled out here, there was a lot of standing around to go around.

Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against (3-10 / season: 3-10; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio rank: 27^th)

The Caps did not win the battle at even strength in any of the three games this week.  They lost to Chicago, 5-1.  They lost to Calgary, 3-2.  They lost to Dallas, 2-0.  That is a trend that has to be changed, pronto.  Part of it is that the Caps were outshot overall at evens, 79-69, for the week.  Forwards were outshot by a 59-43 margin.  It might infuriate some Caps fans to know that Martin Erat, relegated to fourth line duty, recorded one shot at even strength for the week.  The other three left wings – Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, and Jason Chimera – combined for six (Laich had four of them).

If the offensive side of the ledger was bad, the defensive side was worse.  Ten goals in three games, a 3.33 goals against average. There are only ten teams than have a worse total goals against average (including power play and shorthanded goals allowed) after Week 1.

Faceoffs: 102-for-187 / 54.6 percent (season: 58.7 percent / rank: T-4^th)

The Capitals had a good week in the circle, and they had an especially good one in the ends – 59.7 percent wins in the offensive end, 64.2 percent in the defensive end.  Of the ten Caps taking at least one draw, nine of them finished at 50 percent or better (only Nicklas Backstrom – 45.4 percent – was under the line). The real surprise here is Eric Fehr.  The converted right winger was 21-for-32 (65.6 percent), placing him sixth in the league in winning percentage.  He was a beast in the ends, going 5-for-7 (71.4 percent) in the offensive end, 7-for-10 (70.0 percent) in the defensive end.  Who knew?

Goals by period:

Two goals for, six goals against in the first period.  That’s a hard way to start games.  The Caps did not win a first period in any of their three games, going to the locker room after 20 minutes down 2-1 to Chicago, down 3-0 to Calgary, and tied at a goal apiece with Dallas.  It has not been an especially noteworthy case of giving up early goals – three were scored in the first ten minutes of the period, three in the last ten minutes.  And, there are neither any first minute, nor last minute goals scored among the six.  It is seems to have been a persistent step-behind to open games.  The silver lining here is that only one of those six goals came in the last game of the week, but after Week 1, the Caps still have allowed the most first period goals in the league.

In the end…

It is easy to make too much of this week.  It was not a good one.  It is not the end of the world.  Only Toronto has scored more goals in the Eastern Conference than the Caps; no team in the Metropolitan Division has.  On the other hand, no team in the Eastern Conference has allowed more goals than the Caps (games played to date certainly influence those results).  The Caps have played only Western Conference teams to date.  They will play only one Eastern Conference team in the two games to come this week.  Still, with four days off (and three days of practice) to come before the Caps lock horns with Carolina on Thursday, there is no lack of things they can work on.  So for you Caps fans...

That was the week that was.  It's over, let it go...

A NO-point night -- Game 3: Stars 2 - Capitals 1

Last season the Washington Capitals skated more than 2,900 minutes in 48 games.  Less than 300 of that amount was spent on the power play.  It is nice to have the league’s best power play, but you win consistently when you win at even strength.  The Caps got their power play goal tonight, but lost the even-strength battle, 2-0, and dropped a 2-1 decision to the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center.

Washington opened the scoring on their first power play of the evening when Alex Ovechkin flipped a change of pace one timer past goalie Kari Lehtonen’s blocker on the short side at the 4:26 mark of the first period.

That would be it for the Caps as far as their offense was concerned.  Dallas did a superb job keeping the Caps to the outside at even strength, allowing the Stars to win battles along the boards and prevent the Caps from generating any offensive rhythm.  It paid off for the Stars when Erik Cole tied the score eight minutes into the first period when he was left all alone in the slot, free to take a backhand feed by Tyler Seguin from behind the net and slam it past goalie Braden Holtby.

Dallas got what would be the game winner in the 13^th minute of the second period when Alex Chiasson swatted home a rebound of a Cody Eakin shot taken from a severe angle.  Lehtonen made it stand up, turning away the last 21 shots he faced to secure Dallas’ first win of the season.

Other stuff…

-- Through three games the Caps have been outscored at even strength, 10-3.  They are 3-for-69 shooting at even strength (4.3 percent).  They are 0-for-28 in the first periods of games.  That will kill their “PDO,” which at the moment stands for “pretty damn oh-ful.”

-- Hard to fault Braden Holtby on either of the goals.  Erik Cole had no one within ten feet of him right between the hash marks on his score.  All he had to do was get the pass from Tyler Seguin on net to score that goal.  On the other, Alex Chiasson caught the Capitals facing the wrong way when he sped down the slot to bang home a rebound.

-- Back to those even strength shots.  Twelve forwards combined for nine even strength shots.  Alex Ovechkin had one (none after the first period), and the top line had just two.  Nicklas Backstrom had the other one, that one coming with 2:13 left in the game.

-- When John Erskine ties for the team lead in shots on goal (four), it is not a fireworksy kind of night on offense.

-- Martin Erat skated 8:27 in total ice time.  That tied a career mark for consecutive games with less than ten minutes of ice time.  Those games would be the first three games of the 2003-2004 season when he skated a total of 22:35.  He has a total of 23:58 through three games.  Mike Green (28:18) and John Carlson (24:48) average more ice time per game.  Based on his pay this season, Erat has been earning $6,874 per minute played.

-- Eric Fehr won eight of 11 draws tonight.  That makes him 21 for 32 through three games (65.6 percent), ninth in the league in faceoff winning percentage.

-- Until the last three seconds, Kari Lehtonen could have written an opera in goal for all the pressure the Caps put on him.  But those last three seconds were something, including his desperate throw-up-my-glove-and-hope-for-the-best save on Grabovski attempt at a redirect of an Ovechkin pass.

-- Significant of nothing in particular, the fourth line of Erat, Tom Wilson, and Jay Beagle/Michael Latta has a combined seven shots on goal.  They had one tonight (Beagle).

-- Here is what Rule 69.1 says about interference on the goalkeeper…

This rule is based on the premise that an attacking player’s position, whether inside or outside the crease, should not, by itself, determine whether a goal should be allowed or disallowed. In other words, goals scored while attacking players are standing in the crease may, in appropriate circumstances be allowed. Goals should be disallowed only if: (1) an attacking player, either by his positioning or by contact, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal; or (2) an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goalkeeper, inside or outside of his goal crease. Incidental contact with a goalkeeper will be permitted, and resulting goals allowed, when such contact is initiated outside of the goal crease, provided the attacking player has made a reasonable effort to avoid such contact.

The rule will be enforced exclusively in accordance with the on-ice judgement of the Referee(s), and not by means of video replay or review.  For purposes of this rule, “contact,” whether incidental or otherwise, shall mean any contact that is made between or among a goalkeeper and attacking player(s), whether by means of a stick or any part of the body.

The overriding rationale of this rule is that a goalkeeper should have the ability to move freely within his goal crease without being hindered by the actions of an attacking player. If an attacking player enters the goal crease and, by his actions, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.

If an attacking player has been pushed, shoved, or fouled by a defending player so as to cause him to come into contact with the goalkeeper, such contact will not be deemed contact initiated by the attacking player for purposes of this rule, provided the attacking player has made a reasonable effort to avoid such contact.

If a defending player has been pushed, shoved, or fouled by an attacking player so as to cause the defending player to come into contact with his own goalkeeper, such contact shall be deemed contact initiated by the attacking player for purposes of this rule, and if necessary a penalty assessed to the attacking player and if a goal is scored it would be disallowed.

OK, so… did Nicklas Backstrom, “either by his positioning or by contact, [impair] the goalkeeper’s ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal” when he nudged the puck past Lehtonen 8:01 into the second period for a goal that would have given the Caps a 2-1 lead?  Apparently, the referee thought so.

In the end, the Caps might have gained momentum from the goal that was disallowed.  They might have forced the Stars out of their patient push-‘em-to-the-outside defense.  But really, do you believe that?  The Caps were in this game to the very end, but they never seemed to be “in” this game.  It was as if they were locked in a box with no means of escape, as if they were, well…

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Capitals at Stars, October 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“The Stars on ice – will play like mice

Deep in the heart of Texas.

The neutral zone – won’t be their own

Deep in the heart of Texas.

“The Caps shoot pucks – ‘cuz Kari sucks

Deep in the heart of Texas.

The light will shine – from goals divine

Deep in the heart of Texas.”

Hey, Cheerless…you write that one yourself?

“You bet I did…been workin’ on it ever since Jagr signed with them.”

Uh, Cheerless, Jagr is in New Jersey.

“Huh?”

Yeah…you must have missed those few games in Boston, too.

“OK, well, what about Loui Eriksson?”

He’s in Boston.

“Michael Ryder?”

New Jersey, with Jagr.

“Brenden Morrow?...surely he’s still there.”

Nope…they sent him to Pittsburgh, and now he’s in St. Louis.

“Well, then… who ARE these guys?”

Good question. 

The Dallas Stars are a different group than the one that skated for Big D last season and a lot different than the team the Caps last faced.  Only six Stars from the team that gave the Caps their first home loss of the 2011-2012 season (a 5-2 decision) are still with the Stars:  Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski, Vernon Fiddler, and Kari Lehtonen.

This is a club that has remade itself in the last seven months since the 2013 trading deadline.  Gone are a lot of old guys.  Jagr (41), Eriksson, Ryder (33), and Morrow (34) have found new teams. What they have in place are the young (23 year old Alex Chiasson), the younger (21 year old Tyler Seguin), and the younger still (18 year old Valeri Nichushkin, picked 10^th overall in last summer’s draft).

One place where the Stars are both new and old is behind the bench.  Lindy Ruff takes over for Glen Gulutzan, who went 64-57-9 in two seasons with the Stars.  Ruff, who spent 25 years in the Buffalo Sabres organization as a player and coach, is currently third in career coaching wins (571) among active coaches, behind only Ken Hitchcock (606) and Joel Quenneville (661).  If the Stars were to have a big season – 47 wins – Ruff would jump into the top ten in career NHL coaching victories.

A 47-win season would be a tall order for this team.  It is a young group, at least among the forwards.  Three of their nominal centers – Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Cody Eakin – are all younger than 25.  But where the Stars are older, they might be getting to the point where they are simply “old.” Stephane Robidas and Sergei Gonchar are on the far side of 35.  Ditto for forwards Shawn Horcoff, Erik Cole, and the timeless Ray Whitney, who will turn 42 in May.  Even Kari Lehtonen, who Caps fans will remember as a rosy-cheeked prospect goalie with the Atlanta Thrashers from years gone by has reached 30 years of age.  This is a team with a lot of new moving parts, and even a coach with the long resume of Lindy Ruff is going to have some sorting out to do to figure out just what he’s got. 

Here is how the teams compared last season in the tale o’ the tape…

1.  Five of the 18 skaters getting ice time in the Stars’ opener against Florida on Thursday are new to the club: Gonchar, Seguin, Horcoff, Nichushkin, and Chris Mueller.  All except Mueller skated at least 18 minutes.  The new pieces are not just fill-in role players.  At the other end, the defense has an experience issue – not enough of it.  Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn have a combined 80 games of NHL experience going into Saturday’s game.

2.  Every year is a new year, but last year home ice meant nothing to the Stars, good or bad.  They were 11-11-2 at home, 11-11-2 on the road.

3.  Last season the Stars had four players with ten or more goals.  Only two remain (Jamie Benn, Ray Whitney).  Seven had 20 or more points.  Four are still with the team (Benn, Whitney, Cody Eakin, and Alex Goligoski). 

4.  Think that doesn’t put some pressure on Tyler Seguin?  After spending three seasons, 200-plus games, and a Stanley Cup season in Boston, Sequin is now, if not “the man” (that might be Jamie Benn on this team), then certainly a guy who is expected to produce.  He certainly did that in the preseason, going 1-6-7, plus 2 in five games.  He was especially effective on the power play, going 1-4-5.  Dallas need that kind of production if they are to improve on their 18^th-place finish on the power play last season (17.0 percent).

5.  Valeri Nichushkin is going to be a fine player in time.  Drafted 10^th overall in the 2013 entry draft.  He had a respectable three goals in six preseason games in just over 11 minutes of ice time per game.  His ice time was ramped up considerably in Dallas’ opener – 19:50.  He managed only one shot on goal, however, against a weak Florida team.  Like we said… in time.

1.  It’s early.  Keep saying that.  It makes the fact that the Caps have been outscored 6-3 at 5-on-5 and 7-3 overall at even strength a little more palatable. Oh yeah, and they have more power play goals (five) than even strength goals (three).

2.  Alex Ovechkin has two goals, Mikhail Grabovski has two goals.  Ovechkin has three assists, Grabovski has three assists.  (a-HEM!... that should read three goals and two assists for each...thanks, crowesnest)  Ovechkin…two power play goals, Grabovski…yup, two power play goals.  Ovechkin is minus-1, Grabovski is minus-1.  Where they have differed is in how they did it.  Ovechkin has 20 shots on goals, Grabovski has four.  Ovechkin is on a pace for 820 shots on goal.  That would be a record.

3.  If someone told you that even just two games into the season only 28 of 313 forwards averaged less ice time per game than Martin Erat, would you believe it?  Well, you would be wrong…it’s only 27 of 313 forwards who have less ice time per game.  And, it’s less ice time than Patrick Kaleta, Shawn Thornton, and someone named Lucas Lessio.

4.  From the “Let’s Start a Goalie Controversy” file…in his last four appearances dating back to last season, Michal Neuvirth is 3-0-1, 1.83, .945.

5.  John Carlson has skated 40:07 at even strength and has not yet been on ice for an even strength goal scored against. No NHL defenseman thus far has skated more even strength time and has no even strength goals scored against while on ice.  That might be because the two defensemen who have skated more even strength ice time are teammates – Mike Green (five ES goals against) and Karl Alzner (3).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Kari Lehtonen

When Kari Lehtonen was drafted by the Atlanta Thrashers second overall in the 2002 NHL entry draft, he was the top-ranked European goaltender in the Central Scouting rankings.  Turns out it was not a big class for goalies, at least highly ranked ones.  The top three European goalies going into that draft  (according to those Central Scouting rankings) were: Lehtonen, Tobias Stephan, and Hannu Toivonen.  The top three North American goalies were: Jeff Deslauriers, Todd Ford, and Maxime Daigneault.  Any of that group ring a bell?  In fact, only Lehtonen, Cam Ward, and Josh Harding of the 33 goalies taken in that draft have played in more than 100 games.  Of the top three North American goalies, Ford and Daigneault never appeared in an NHL game.

Lehtonen has settled into being a good, if not great goalie.  Since being traded to Dallas in February 2009, he is 87-65-18, 2.52, .917, with eight shutouts in 177 appearances.  He was in that ball park of goals against (2.66) and save percentage last season (.916), but after a good start in which he went 9-3-1, 2.25, .930 in his first 15 games; he finished 6-11-2, 3.09, .906 in his last 21 appearances.  In 19 career appearances against the Caps he is 11-6-2, 2.76, .920. 

Washington: Karl Alzner

It is a bit odd that after two games we should be talking about a slump, especially when talking about a defensive defenseman.  However, Karl Alzner has been on ice for three of the seven even-strength goals scored against the Caps thus far.  Add to that the fact that the Calgary Flames scored on a power play goal stemming from a penalty taken by Alzner, and he had a hand (skate, stick, whatever) in four of the ten goals scored against the Caps so far this season.  We have every confidence that this trend will be corrected, but it would help if the corrections came sooner than later.

Keys:

1.  Take Advantage of Evens.  Kari Lehtonen was 16^th in even strength save percentage among goalies playing in at least half their team’s games last season.  Decent, not noteworthy.  The Caps have to start making a dent at 5-on-5.  Doing so means that the Caps might…

2.  Serve Youth…On a Platter.  There is the matter that Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn have only those 80 combined games of NHL experience on the blueline for Dallas.  If they get the start, coach Lindy Ruff can protect them with the home-ice last change, even if he really didn’t in the Stars game against Florida (Dillon had more than 20 minutes of ice time, Benn almost 17 minutes).  Against the Caps, who have a deeper offense than the Panthers, this is a weak spot that might be exploited.

3.  Settle Down.  Braden Holtby has looked jittery in his first two appearances.  We do not think this is nerves, but rather the goalie equivalent of a power pitcher in baseball who is “too strong” in the early innings of a game and falls into the trap of overthrowing his fast ball.  In Holtby’s case, he has not settled into a game-to-game rhythm in the early going yet, and he is perhaps “too fresh,” causing him to overplay his position and take himself off his angles and out of position.  He was similarly poor in his first two games last season and worked himself out of it.  But he should be getting to the point, experience-wise, where he should not have to play himself out of that problem, if it in fact exists.  If he settles down, he is the better goaltender in this game.  If he doesn’t, he’s not.

In the end…

“The fans will cry - ki-yip-pie-yi

Deep in the heart of Texas.

Ki-yip-pie-yi, means “I’d like to die”

Deep in the heart of Texas.

"The Caps will score – four goals or more

Deep in the heart of Texas.

To leave the Stars – in search of bars

Deep in the heart of Texas."

Thanks, Cheerless…

Capitals 4 – Stars 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 2: Capitals 5 - Flames 4 (OT/Gimmick)

Hey, barkeep… two pints…uh, points, please!

The Washington Capitals found themselves down by three goals twice in their home opener on Thursday night against the Calgary Flames, but they came back to tie the game late and win it in the Bettman Round, 5-4, over the Flames at Verizon Center.

It looked grim for the men in red early when the visitors abused starting goaltender Braden Holtby for three goals on 11 shots in the first period.  That would do it for Holtby’s evening, Michal Neuvirth coming in to relieve Holtby barely 16 minutes into the game.

It looked as if it might get worse when Connor Carrick took a hooking penalty 5:21 into the second period.  The Caps held the Flames off on the ensuing power play, limiting Calgary to two shots, and when Carrick was sprung from the penalty box, Marcus Johansson found him on a stretch pass at the Flames’ blue line.  Carrick faked goalie Karri Ramo to the ice and tucked the puck around his left pad for his first NHL goal.

That might have led to a torrent of goals, but it was Calgary who regained their three-goal margin just 1:35 later when Lance Bouma (who had an interesting evening) took advantage of a misplay of the puck by Neuvirth behind the Caps net to convert a pass from Brian McGrattan for a lay-up and a 4-1 lead.

That might have spelled doom for the Caps, but David Jones took a high-sticking penalty, and the torrent was at hand.  Mike Green teed one up for a one-timer by Alex Ovechkin, but Ovechkin’s drive was tipped by Flames defensemen T.J. Brodie.  The puck changed direction and tumbled past the left pad of Ramo, finding the back of the net to draw the Caps within two.

Four minutes later it was Ovechkin again, this time off a faceoff win by Nicklas Backstrom.  The draw came to Ovechkin at the top of the right-wing circle, and Ovechkin wasted no time wristing the puck over Ramo’s glove and under the crossbar to get the Caps to within a goal.

The Caps got all the way back with 5:50 left in the third period when Nicklas Backstrom waited patiently for a clot of players in the left wing circle to sort out who had the puck.  The biscuit slid over to a wide-open Backstrom at the edge of the right-wing circle, where he settled it and wristed it past Ramo to tie the game at 4-4.

Overtime went by without incident, if not without concern given Calgary’s domination of zone time, which led to the Gimmick.  The Caps made short work of the trick shot portion of the show, first with Mikhail Grabovski flipping home a backhand over a sprawled Ramo, then Ovechkin doing the same on the other side of the net, while Neuvirth turned away Sven Baertschi and Jiri Hudler to give the Caps a win in their home opener.

Other stuff…

-- Given that this was the Flames’ season opener and that the Caps had a game under their belts, it seemed odd that it was the Flames who had jump and didn’t look stiff to open the game.

-- Last season Braden Holtby allowed ten goals on 73 shots in his first two appearances (.863 save percentage), both losses.  This season he has allowed eight goals on 45 shots in his first two appearances (.822 save percentage), a loss and a no-decision.

-- Last season it took Alex Ovechkin ten games to get to five points.  This season, two.  This is his quickest to five points since the 2009-2010 season when he had three points in each of his first two games.

-- Lance Bouma had, as we said, an interesting evening.  His check on Jack Hillen mid-way through the first period against the side wall ended Hillen’s evening, Hillen apparently suffering a significant knee injury.  Bouma then engaged with Tom Wilson in a bout and later added what would be Calgary’s last goal of the evening.  A lot of stuff for a guy who skated only 6:44 on the night.

-- For Hillen it was the second time in two seasons he suffered significant injuries early in the season.  Last year it was a shoulder injury suffered in the season opener against Tampa Bay.

-- Marcus Johansson recorded three assists in as quiet a fashion as one could imagine. It was his first career three-point game.

-- Mikhail Grabovski, who had a hat trick in the opener against Chicago, did not have a shot on goal in this game.  He did have an assist, though, enabling him to share the league scoring lead with Ovechkin (five points).

-- Yes, the Caps had two more power play goals tonight in three chances.  That’s 5-for-9 in two games (55.6 percent).  But they were outscored, 3-2, at even strength (one of those even strength goals coming on a break after a Calgary power play expired) and have been outscored by 8-3 at evens so far.  The Caps need to play several levels better at 5-on-5.

-- Martin Erat… 6:30 in ice time.  That’s 15:31 through two games.  He has averaged 16:52 per game over his career.  It is the first time since the start of the 2003-2004 season that Erat has played two consecutive games with less than 10 minutes of ice time.  If you are keeping score (and we know you are), Filip Forsberg is expected to miss Nashville’s first two games with a lower body injury (he did not play in the Predators’ 4-2 loss to St. Louis tonight).

-- It is not news when Alex Ovechkin leads the team in shots.  He did so again tonight with 11 shots on goal.  But Karl Alzner and Connor Carrick tied for second with four apiece? O-o-o-o-o-o-kay.

-- Mike Green had more blocked shots (five) than the rest of the defense combined (three).

-- Ovechkin wins the free pass to the buffet… two goals, an assist, a minor penalty, 11 shots, 17 shot attempts, five hits, and a takeaway.

-- Eric Fehr is 13-for-21 on faceoffs through two games (7-for-11 tonight).  That 61.9 percent mark so far puts him in the top 15 in the league.  On the other hand, he’s been on ice for six of the ten goals scored against the Caps.

-- Which brings us to the evil plus-minus.  Last year, Fehr and Joel Ward finished a combined plus-21 for the season.  Through two games they are a combined minus-9 (a combined minus-4 tonight).

-- Is Tom Wilson strong?  He just bar-armed Lance Bouma (210 pounds) to the ice in their fight.  At 19, he’s 6’4, 210.  When he is 6’5, 225 in five years or so…yeesh.

In the end, the Caps looked very Boudreau-ish tonight.  Fall behind, then go through the opponent’s defense like a chain saw over the last 40 minutes.  We don’t know that this is a formula for success, especially one so dependent on the power play.  Calgary did a very good job of crashing the net, being a nuisance to which ever goalie was in for the Caps.  Their lack of skill was apparent, though, as the game wore on, just as the Caps’ deep skill level was apparent.  The Caps catch a break with a manageable stretch of their schedule coming up – Dallas, Carolina, Colorado, and Edmonton – with no back-to-back games (and no games from Saturday's contest with Dallas through Wednesday of next week).  It should give them an opportunity to work out the kinks in their game.  And they have quite a few to work out.