A TWO point night: Caps 6 - Thrashers 3

The beer is a little colder, the air a little crisper, and the wings will be a little tastier…thanks to the Caps running roughshod over the Atlanta Thrashers last night, 6-3.

It started as “Kids Club Night” with clowns, carcicaturist, and prizes…and it ended as “Wings Night” as the Caps scored the magic six goals to give each of their fans a pound of wings from a local establishment.

As for the Caps, they extracted their own pound of flesh, taking out the frustrations of the last month – not to mention the wrath of head coach Bruce Boudreau – on the hapless Thrashers.

It was so complete a “thrashing”…so to speak…that even when the Caps missed, it left a mark. Alexander Semin snapped off a shot from in close that ripped the mask from the head of Atlanta goaltender Kari Lehtonen, leaving the dazed netminder looking around for parts and waiting several minutes for repairs.

As for the scoring, there are a few “keywords” to describe the effort. The first is “efficiency.” The Caps scored six goals on only 27 shots, although they unloaded a total of 58 attempts on Atlanta.

Second, there is “pairs.” The Caps twice scored a pair of goals within about a minute of each other. The first goal of the game was scored 8:12 into the first, when Nicklas Backstrom intercepted a ghastly up-the-middle pass from Brian Pothier Niclas Havelid just inside the Thrasher line and snapped the puck over Lehtonen’s glove to open the scoring. Precisely one minute later, Alexander Semin tried a backhand wrap-around. Lehtonen made the stop, but a weak clear by Ken Klee came out to the top of the left wing circle where Jeff Schultz fired the puck past the statuesque (no, really, he never moved) Klee -- pictured at left -- who served to screen Lehtonen, who never saw the puck sail past him into the net. There was also the pair of goals netted by Mike Green, tying him for second on the club (7).

The other pair came in the second period, following a 5-on-3 power play goal by Atlanta’s Todd White. Tom Poti sent the puck wide left of the Thrasher goal – right in redirectable territory, and Alex Ovechkin did just that, blading the puck behind Lehtonen for the Caps’ answer to the Atlanta goal. 69 seconds later, Tomas Fleischmann walked around the net and found Mike Green pinching in – probably something those two had clicked on in Hershey a few times. Green took the pass and snapped the puck past Lehtonen, and the competitive portion of the evening was pretty much over.

Third, there is “whew!” As in…”finally!” Matt Pettinger went the entire month of November without so much as a point (0-0-0, -9). He last scored a goal on October 29^th against Toronto, his only goal of the year. Last night, though, he swooped in behind an Ovechkin shot repelled by Lehtonen and put the garbage in the disposal with a backhand sweep.

Fourth, there is “three,” as in “point night.” Nicklas Backstrom had his second three-point night of the year with a goal and two assists. He is 2-7-9, +3 over his last eight games and has risen to third in rookie scoring.

You’d be hard pressed to find a Cap who had a bad game last night. Plusses abound (12 skaters were on that side of the ledger), and the fun was spread around – five players with the six goals and ten players registering points. Nine skaters had hits, eight had blocked shots. They held Ilya Kovachuk to a cosmetic assist on the Thrashers’ second goal, when the game had already been decided. Ditto, Marian Hossa, who they also held to one shot on goal. It enable the Caps to exploit a sluggish Thrasher blue line group that seemed to have more interest in throwing ill-timed hits (Garnet Exelby, five hits) than defending (Garnet Exelby, -4).

A word, too, about Olaf Kolzig. If you look at the stat sheet, Kolzig had 23 saves on 26 shots – a pretty ordinary line. But he stopped 20 of the first 21 Atlanta shots, some of those saves of the game-saving variety…eight minutes in with the game still scoreless, he stopped Jim Slater at the doorstep off a centering feed from Pascal Dupuis...in the first minute of the second period, after Mike Green mistakenly though an icing call was coming, Kolzig stopped a Kovalchuk drive off a pass from Hossa, who had taken the puck from Green…three minutes into the second stopping a bang-bang try off the sticks of Steve McCarthy and Dupuis…a skate save on a redirect that could have brought the Thrashers back within a goal late in the second. It was the kind of solid night the club needed – making the saves he had to make and stealing a few along the way as well.

It was a complete reversal from the game they played collectively the previous night in Newark. The Caps have looked over long stretches of this season like a team than needed someone to kick ass and take names. Bruce Boudreau has done just that – calling out players publicly (fingering Brian Pothier and sitting him is one thing – even if Pothier hadn’t been a healthy scratch in his entire time here – but calling out the iconic Olaf Kolzig…that’s a different animal) and chewing them out in the relative privacy of practice. This night, at least, the players responded.

First in war, first in peace...

…last in:

Wins

Points

Record when giving up first goal

Home wins

One-goal losses

One goal wins

Wins when trailing after two periods

Losses when trailing after two periods

Attendance

The National Hockey League

…could a season anticipated by so many with expectations as high as they were have started any worse? The Peerless thinks then new uniform should have been this:

The Newest Thrasher

...is this guy, plucked off the waiver wire.

Guess he'd rather wear baby blue than puke yellow...
















photo: AP

Did the Caps ask Santa for this Schedule?

OK, here is the rest of December for the Caps...

Atlanta (14-13-1)
New Jersey (16-10-2)
NY Rangers (15-12-2)
Buffalo (12-13-1)
at Tampa Bay (13-13-2)
at Detroit (20-6-2)
Montreal (14-10-4)
at NY Islanders (13-12-2)
Tampa Bay (13-13-2)
at Pittsburgh (14-12-2)
at Ottawa (18-7-3)

Counting each team only once, the combined record of opponents is 149-108-21. Every team but Buffalo is at least a .500 team. There are three division leaders and six top-eight teams in there. Ten conference games...

Let's say the Caps go 9-2 against these teams. They'd still be 18-19-2.

I think they'd rather have coal in their stockings than this schedule.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, December 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Another day, another game, another hot team…well, sorta.

Tonight, it’s the Atlanta Thrashers making an appearance at Verizon Center, riding on the wings of a four game points-earned streak – why is it everyone but the Caps has these streaks these days?

But first, we’re at the point now where the Caps are a pretty brittle hockey club…and not just in terms of the injuries to Chris Clark, Michael Nylander, and Boyd Gordon. The mental aspect of the game has to be wearing on them. So we’ve brought back our old friend, Dr. Phil to help the Caps sort out their…well, issues.

Dr. Phil, welcome.

“Glad to be here, Peerless, as always.”

Doc…what do you tell a team like this, one that is seeing their season slip away?

“You don't need to take a personal inventory to cha-cha-cha all night long.”

I see…and if there is anything this team doesn’t do enough of, it’s cha-cha-cha, not with being 28^th in the NHL in goals-per-game. But what about the injuries…would you agree that they’ve played a role in the Caps’ record?

“You don't need phlebitis to blame it on anybody but yourself.”

You mean they have to just move on and look in the mirror and suck it up…

“You don't need macadamia nuts to blame it on anybody but yourself…”

Macadamia nuts, Brazil nuts, hazelnuts, whatever…you just have to grow a pair and play the game…but they’ve been unlucky, too…shots that won’t go in for them, shots that do seem to find their way in for the other guys…

“You don’t need a lucky rabbit’s foot to goof around and do squat.”

You mean, luck has nothing to do with it, that they’ve just “done squat” on their own? Well, what sort of motivation can you provide a club like this?

“You don't need endless supplies of avocados to drop and give me twenty.”

In other words, they need to dig deep within themselves to find that motivation…that even coach Boudreau’s getting on them won’t be enough?

“You don't need a nagging mother-in-law to think for yourself.”

I think I see your point…but the boys seem to understand, based on the quotes we’re reading from players in the post game reports…

“You don’t need a press release to raise the roof.”

Ah, less “talk,” more “do”…I get it. So where do they go from here, Dr. Phil?

“You don’t need a bag of wolverines to skin a gopher.”

Ah, but it would help if the boys played like a bag of wolverines…any last words?

"You don't need to watch my crappy show to . . . Dadgummit, I forgot."

Well, “win a hockey game comes to mind,” but thanks Dr. Phil, and we’ll see you again soon.

As for tonight’s game, like we said, Atlanta comes in on a four-game points-earned streak that has them within a point of the top-eight in the Eastern Conference. The four games constitute their “Best o’ the Big Apple” tour, having defeated the Rangers and Islanders (twice), and taking the Devils to a shootout. They’ve outscored their opponents, 13-7.

Unlike what the rest of the league seems to be doing, the Thrashers haven’t been doing it with special teams – at least on offense. They are 1-for-18 on the power play over their last four games (5.6 percent). They do make up for it, though, by holding their opponents to one goal in 19 shorthanded situations (94.7 percent penalty killing).

That man – Ilya Kovalchuk – is right in the thick of the scoring, as one might assume. He scored goals in each of the first three games of this streak and has goals in four of his last five games (23 for the season, tops in the league). For those of you keeping track, he’s on a pace to score 67 goals this year…it would be nice if he were paid attention to this evening. Marian Hossa also has three goals in the four game run, so he might be worth a look from time to time, too.

In goal, Kari Lehtonen would seem to be the sure call here, since Johan Hedberg manned the nets in the 4-2 win last night against the Rangers. Lehtonen has had success against Washington – 6-2-2, 2.55, .917. He was, however, the loser on opening night in his only decision this year against the Caps when the Caps won, 3-1.

This is a team that has struggled at times this year on defense and penalty killing. The Thrashers are 29^th in goals-per-game allowed, and they are 28^th in penalty killing, even after their 18-for-19 run.

There are two things a team cannot do against Atlanta, based on their performance so far this year. First, they cannot let Atlanta get to the first intermission with a lead. They are 6-0-0 when leading after one period (the Caps have not allowed the Thrashers a first intermission lead in going 1-1-1).

Second, they cannot allow the Thrashers to record more shots, but here lies one of the stranger statistics in the NHL this year. The Thrashers have out-shot their opponents only twice this year in 28 games, winning both games (the Caps have out-shot the Thrashers in each of the three games played).

For the Caps, it’s a divisional game and a chance to…well, what that is we’re not sure. The Caps find themselves this morning on a pace to reach 59 points for the season – right where they were in 2003-2004 when this struggle started. So any thought of playoffs – or of any game past the one in front of them – seems rather pointless for the time being.

With that in mind, this is an opponent the Caps have seen at their worst (the 3-1 opening night win started the Thrashers on their 0-6-0 start that got Bob Hartley relieved of his coaching duties), their best (a 5-1 loss to Atlanta was the fourth of a four-game wining streak for Atlanta just before Thanksgiving), and in the middle (a 2-1 overtime loss to the Thrashers). There aren’t any mysteries here…make Atlanta pay when they are a man short…don’t get into shorthanded situations…and keep a close watch on Ilya Kovalchuk.

This one is going to extra time, and Matt Pettinger – that’s right, Matt Pettinger – is going to score a goal.

Caps 4 – Thrashers 3

A no point night...Devils 3 - Caps 2

“The Capitals did…manage to make it interesting at the end for the 16,265 in attendance.”

That will be the quote – from this morning’s story by Tarik El-Bashir in the Washington Post – that will come back to haunt the Caps this season, one that sank just a little further into the void with last night’s 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils in Newark.

The quote has meaning on several levels...

First, last night’s loss was the tenth one-goal loss of the year (regulation and overtime) – most in the NHL.

Second, it was once more a reflection of the Caps’ ineffectiveness in close games – their 3-8-2 record in one-goal games is worst in the NHL (this has ominous overtones for this evening that we’ll note later).

Third, this is the sixth time in a one-goal loss where the Caps found themselves two-goals down in the third period. They scored that one goal to, well…”make it interesting,” but not another one to make it even.

The Caps found themselves not quite good enough in just about everything…

They came out with less jump than the Devils to start the game. One might have expected the Devils to come out hard – they were in the midst of an eight-game winning streak and were honoring defenseman Scott Stevens last night – but to come out with the appearance of no energy…that just wasn’t what one would have expected after having a five-day break.

The Caps just didn’t have the “will and the want,” as head coach Bruce Boudreau put it after the game…

-- The Devils out-hit the Caps, 18-11

-- The Devils won the turnover battle, 9-12.

-- The Devils blew the Caps away in the faceoff circle, winning 33 of 53 draws (62.3 percent)…John Madden and Patrik Elias were a combined 24-9 (72.7 percent).

-- The Devils were 1-for-5 on the power play, the Caps 0-for-4

-- Dainius Zubrus renewed acquaintances with his old club by scoring the power play goal by picking up the garbage of a shot stopped by Kolzig (imagine that, an ugly goal…), then planted Alexander Ovechkin into the side boards, leaving Ovechkin a little worse for wear.

-- Brian Pothier’s fair imitation of Sergei Gochar, throwing the puck up the middle where Vitaly Vishnevski intercepted it and then slipped a backhand past Olaf Kolzig for the first goal, one that Kolzig would seem to want back…

-- And in what was the whole game wrapped into a five second sequence, Sheldon Brookbank took a shot that Kolzig stopped, but Tom Poti could not handle Travis Zajac at the top of the crease…Zajac outfought Poti, Kolzig could not turn the shot away, and the goal – the eventual winner – found its way into the net.

At least they managed to avoid allowing a second period goal...

OK, let’s get the obligatory rationalizations out of the way. The Caps were missing Chris Clark, Michael Nylander, and Boyd Gordon…they were playing a team on a hot streak…they had to wait as the Devils had their ceremony for Scott Stevens…they had some rust from a five-day layoff…they were playing a team that leads a division in which four of the teams have at least 30 points and are in the top-eight playoff mix…

Bull…

Individually and collectively, there were just enough miscues, mistakes, and errors in judgment to allow the Caps to be close, but not close enough…New Jersey was ripe for the plucking, and the Caps let them off the hook with an uninspired effort, certainly one that betrayed any notion that this is a desperate team looking to get on a streak of any kind.

The Caps played just well enough to make it interesting, and that has been the story of their season. One goal short in more than half their losses…

Oh, by the way….Atlanta – tonight’s opponent – has the best record in one-goal games in the NHL (7-1-1).

So, how will he look in yellow?

Erstwhile Pittsburgh forward Mark Recchi has been assigned to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Wonder how he'll look in this...



....eeeeeeeyuck.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils, December 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, after five days off, the Caps return to the ice to check out the new digs in Newark, visiting the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center. Meanwhile, as the Caps were contemplating their injury situation -- Chris Clark, Boyd Gordon, and Michael Nylander all on the shelf -- The Peerless heard this conversation at Kettler...



Abbott: Well Costello, I'm going to New Jersey with you. You know Bruce Boudreau, the Caps’ head coach, gave me a job as coach for as long as you're on the team.

Costello: Look Abbott, if you're the coach, you must know all the players.

Abbott: I certainly do.

Costello: Well you know I've never met the new guys that came up with Clark, Gordon, and Nylander out. So you'll have to tell me their names, and then I'll know who's playing on the team.

Abbott: Oh, I'll tell you their names, but you know it seems to me they give these hockey players now-a-days very peculiar names.

Costello: You mean funny names?

Abbott: Strange names, foreign-sounding names...like Milan Jurcina...

Costello: My cina?.

Abbott: Jur-cina...

Costello: Why is he “my cina?”

Abbott: He’s not, he’s Jur-cina…”

Costello: hmmph!

Abbott: Well, let's see, we have the forwards, Who's at left wing, What's at right wing, I Don't Know is the center...

Costello: That's what I want to find out.

Abbott: I say Who's at left wing, What's at right wing, I Don't Know's the center.

Costello: Are you the coach?

Abbott: Yes.

Costello: And you don't know the fellows' names?

Abbott: Well I should.

Costello: Well then who's at left wing?

Abbott: Yes.

Costello: I mean the fellow's name.

Abbott: Who.

Costello: The guy at left wing.

Abbott: Who.

Costello: The left wing.

Abbott: Who.

Costello: The guy playing...

Abbott: Who is at left wing!

Costello: I'm asking YOU who's at left wing.

Abbott: That's the man's name.

Costello: That's who's name?

Abbott: Yes.

Costello: Well go ahead and tell me.

Abbott: That's it.

Costello: That's who?

Abbott: Yes….

Costello: Look, you gotta left wing?

Abbott: Certainly.

Costello: Who's playing left wing?

Abbott: That's right.

Costello: When you pay off the left wing every month, who gets the money?

Abbott: Every dollar of it.

Costello: All I'm trying to find out is the fellow's name at left wing.

Abbott: Who.

Costello: The guy that gets...

Abbott: That's it.

Costello: Who gets the money...

Abbott: He does, every dollar. Sometimes his wife comes down and collects it.

Costello: Whose wife?

Abbott: Yes…

Abbott: What's wrong with that?

Costello: Look, all I wanna know is when you sign up the left wing, how does he sign his name?

Abbott: Who.

Costello: The guy.

Abbott: Who.

Costello: How does he sign...

Abbott: That's how he signs it.

Costello: Who?

Abbott: Yes…

Costello: All I'm trying to find out is what's the guy's name at left wing.

Abbott: No. What is at right wing.

Costello: I'm not asking you who's at right wing.

Abbott: Who's at left wing.

Costello: One wing at a time!

Abbott: Well, don't change the players around.

Costello: I'm not changing nobody!

Abbott: Take it easy, buddy.

Costello: I'm only asking you, who's the guy at left wing?

Abbott: That's right.

Costello: Ok.

Abbott: All right…

Costello: What's the guy's name at left wing?

Abbott: No. What is at right wing.

Costello: I'm not asking you who's at right wing.

Abbott: Who's at left wing.

Costello: I don't know.

Abbott: He's the center, we're not talking about him.

Costello: Now how did I get the center?

Abbott: Why you mentioned his name.

Costello: If I mentioned the center’s name, who did I say is playing center?

Abbott: No. Who's playing left wing.

Costello: What's at left wing?

Abbott: What's at right wing.

Costello: I don't know.

Abbott: He's the center.

Costello: There I go, back to the center again!...

Costello: Would you just stay at the center and don't go off it.

Abbott: All right, what do you want to know?

Costello: Now who's playing center?

Abbott: Why do you insist on putting Who at center?

Costello: What am I putting at the center.

Abbott: No. What is at right wing.

Costello: You don't want who at right wing?

Abbott: Who is at left wing.

Costello: I don't know.

Abbott & Costello Together: CENTER!...

Costello: Look, you got defensemen?

Abbott: Sure.

Costello: The left defenseman's name?

Abbott: Why.

Costello: I just thought I'd ask you.

Abbott: Well, I just thought I'd tell ya.

Costello: Then tell me who's playing left defense.

Abbott: Who's playing left wing.

Costello: I'm not... stay out of the forwards! I want to know what's the guy's name at left defense?

Abbott: No, What is at right wing.

Costello: I'm not asking you who's at right wing.

Abbott: Who's at left wing!

Costello: I don't know.

Abbott & Costello Together: CENTER!...

Costello: The left defenseman's name?

Abbott: Why.

Costello: Because!

Abbott: Oh, he's right defense….

Costello: Look, You gotta goalie on this team?

Abbott: Sure.

Costello: The goalie's name?

Abbott: Tomorrow.

Costello: You don't want to tell me today?

Abbott: I'm telling you now.

Costello: Then go ahead.

Abbott: Tomorrow!

Costello: What time?

Abbott: What time what?

Costello: What time tomorrow are you gonna tell me who's the goalie?

Abbott: Now listen. Who is not the goalie.

Costello: I'll break your arm, you say who's at left wing! I want to know what's the goalie's name?

Abbott: What's at right wing.

Costello: I don't know.

Abbott & Costello Together: CENTER!...

Costello: Gotta a backup goalie?

Abbott: Certainly.

Costello: The backup goalie's name?

Abbott: Today.

Costello: Today, and tomorrow's in goal.

Abbott: Now you've got it.

Costello: All we got is a couple of days on the team…

Costello: You know I'm a goalie too.

Abbott: So they tell me.

Costello: I get in front of the net to do some fancy puck stopping, and a fancy shooter takes a shot…When he shoots, me, being a good goalie, I'm gonna make the save and leave it for a teammate. So I drop the puck and pass it to who?

Abbott: Now that's the first thing you've said right.

Costello: I don't even know what I'm talking about!...

Abbott: That's all you have to do.

Costello: Is to pass the puck to the left wing.

Abbott: Yes!

Costello: Now who's got it?

Abbott: Naturally….

Costello: Look, if I pass the puck to the left wing, somebody's gotta get it. Now who has it?

Abbott: Naturally.

Costello: Who?

Abbott: Naturally.

Costello: Naturally?

Abbott: Naturally.

Costello: So I drop the puck and pass it to Naturally.

Abbott: No you don't, you pass the puck to Who.

Costello: Naturally.

Abbott: That's different.

Costello: That's what I said.

Abbott: You're not saying it...

Costello: I pass the puck to Naturally.

Abbott: You pass it to Who.

Costello: Naturally.

Abbott: That's it.

Costello: That's what I said!

Abbott: You ask me.

Costello: I pass the puck to who?

Abbott: Naturally.

Costello: Now you ask me.

Abbott: You pass the puck to Who?

Costello: Naturally.

Abbott: That's it.

Costello: Same as you! Same as YOU! I pass the puck to who. Whoever it is misses the puck and the guy skates after it. Who gets the puck and passes it to What. What passes it to I Don't Know. I Don't Know passes it back to Tomorrow, Goal!. After the faceoff another guy passes the puck to Because. Why? I don't know! He's the center and I don't give a darn!

Abbott: What?

Costello: I said I don't give a darn!

Abbott: Oh, that's our zamboni driver.

The Devils have won eight in a row. The Caps have nine wins for the season. That is what we prognosticators call “bad math.” Does someone want to throw a bucket of water on Zach Parise?...During this eight-game winning streak, he’s 9-8-17, +6, with two game winning goals. And Brian Gionta isn’t far behind – 5-6-11, +5. Even Dainius Zubrus has gotten into the act – 2-3-5, +3, and a game-winner.

But the Devils might be ripe to be plucked. In the first six games of the streak, they outscored their opponents 22-7 and won three of the games by at least three goals. In the last two games, they’ve outscored their opponents 6-5, both games going to extra time (one overtime, one shootout).

Which brings us to…Martin Brodeur. He’s been in goal for each of the wins in this streak (8-0-0, 1.48, .943). But there are those five goals in the last two compared to seven in the previous six (including two shutouts). Marty’s played in ten consecutive games…but Kevin Weekes hasn’t exactly enjoyed success in his career against the Caps (2-13-1, 3.25, .893). Marty, on the other hand…30-11-4, 2.10, .912.

The Caps have had almost a week to install some new Boudreauian wrinkles, and New Jersey looks like they’re coming to the end of a run. That’s enough for The Peerless…

Caps 3 – Devils 1

"Behavior is more important than technology"

It has little (well, nothing) to do with hockey, but we found this report in this morning's Washington Post on blogging in Japan rather enlightening.

As an extension of culture, it is fascinating:

The diary habit runs so deep in Japan that it transformed the craft of blogging from an American-style lecture to a Japanese-style personal narrative, according to [Technorati board member] Joichi Ito...In the process, he said, blogging exploded as a mega-fad for Japan's huge middle class, a kind of karaoke for shy people.

One might say that blogging on this side of the Pacific is just as much an extension of culture -- quite individualistic, more confrontational, very opinionated, provacative.

OK, enough of that crap...we'll be getting back to hockey in a bit.

Another tale of two teams...

This one is even stranger...

The team in the column in the middle is the Tampa Bay Lightning. The team in the column on the right is the Tampa Bay Lightning...those would be their home and away records this season, respectively.

A tale of two teams...

One is Ottawa, one is Washington...how they've fared over their last seven games:

You could say that Washington at their "best" (and it is their best seven-game stretch over the season so far) is only as good as Ottawa's worst, but another way to think about this is that things tend to even out in the end...Ottawa was not as good as its start, and Washington was not as bad as its start.

Why is Pittsburgh Struggling?...It isn't rocket science

We take this brief interlude from matters concerning the Caps to ask the question, "what's happened to Pittsburgh?" Thought by some to be a Stanley Cup finalist in waiting, the Penguins have struggled out of the gate. Why? It really isn't hard to see:

2006-2007 (through 26 games): 11-11-4 (26 points)
2007-2008 (through 26 games): 12-12-2 (26 points)

Looks pretty similar...well, maybe not:

Record vs. Atlantic Division:

2006-2007 (through 26 games): 9-4-1 (19 points)
2007-2008 (through 26 games): 3-7-1 (7 points)

Given the preponderance of divisional games on clubs' schedules, and the improvements in Atlantic Division squads this year (they re already 0-2-0 to Philadelphia, who they swept last year), there should be more than a little concern among the Penguin faithful.

Shots matter...don't they?

The Peerless has always been of a mind that shots matter -- that over the course of a season, the notion that the kind of shots a club faces regresses toward a mean of difficulty, and the result is that teams that rank highly in shots taken/shots faced do better than those that do not.

Well, the information gleaned from the first third of the season is rather weird in this regard. Looking at shots taken, we've ranked teams by their shots taken/game (conference top-eight teams marked with an "X"):



What you might note is the top and bottom of the list. The top five teams in shots taken are in the top-eight of their respective conferences. But then again, so are the bottom four clubs, not to mention eight of the bottom 11. Hmm...what about shots allowed?



Here, eight of the best 11 teams in allowing shots are top-eight clubs in their respective conferences, while only five of the worst 11 are similarly situated. Does differential make a difference?



Hard to tell anything here...five of the top ten, five of the next ten, and six of the bottom ten are in the top-eight mix. Differential -- to this point -- seems to matter little.

It's early, with lots of time for these things to settle out, but it looks like if there is one thing to watch, it is how many shots a team allows. It might be a function of uncommon puck possession capability (Detroit seems rather freakish in this regard) or teams with a well-earned reputation for denying shots (the Devils, Stars), but keeping those shots allowed down seems to be more an indicator of success than taking shots. This makes some sense...a shot that gets through might be a high-quality chance or a low-quality one, but a chance nonetheless. But a shot that doesn't get through (or doesn't get taken) can't find its way into the back of the net.

The "First Period" -- Team-Wide Performance

The Caps played their 27^th game of the season last night – roughly the one-third mark of the 82-game season. Time to take a look at what happened in the “first period” this season compared to last…

2006-2007: 12-9-6 (30 points)
2007-2008: 9-16-2 (20 points)

It’s fair to say that the club has underachieved, both relative to last year and to expectations for this one. What accounts for the difference? Well, it’s not what you think it might be. In one-goal games here is the difference:

2006-2007: 2-1-6 (10 points)
2007-2008: 3-7-2 (8 points)

The Capitals have to do better in one-goal games, to be sure, but their problem in one-goal games has been that they’ve been two goals down late in games. In five of those one-goal losses in regulation, the Caps were down at least two goals in the third period. In four of them, they scored a goal to get within one with less than five minutes to go in regulation. What they’ve shown is an ability to almost come back from deficits. Put another way, they’ve dug themselves too big a hole in games to come all the way back, and that is a reflection of the sort of situation they face with respect to the season…too big a hole being dug.

It is the Caps getting into those deficits that is the problem, and that brings us to the second period…of games, that is. No team has given up more than the 31 second period goals the Caps have allowed so far this season. And the differential is telling. In the first period of games this year, the Caps have held opponents even: 22-22. But in the second period, the Caps have a 12 goal deficit: 19-31. In nine wins, the Caps have given up six second period goals. In 16 regulation losses they’ve given up 24 second period goals. The second period has killed this club this year.

This being the “new” NHL, special teams are, perhaps, the most important part of the game. On the power play, how do the Caps stack up this season versus last?

2006-2007: 24/146 (16.4 percent)
2007-2008: 20/120 (16.7 percent)

The difference is not in the success rate, but rather in the chances. The Caps are -26 in chances compared to last year, and that is time the opponent doesn’t have to expend energy and defend man-short situations – it is more opportunity for those teams to play at even strength and attack on their own.

On the other hand, what is the difference between this year and last on the power play over the first 27 games?

2006-2007: 129/156 (82.3 percent)
2007-2008: 104/128 (81.2 percent)

While the success rate is down, the Caps can point to the fewer chances permitted as a positive. Shaving short-handed situations by 18 percent is a huge improvement.

What is disappointing here is the differential in power play opportunities. Given the upgrade in skill, even with teams adjusting to the manner in which games are called one would think the Caps would have drawn at least as many penalties as last year. The result is that the Caps, just as was the case last year, have to defend power plays more often than they execute them. It isn’t a large differential (-8, compared to -10 at this point last year), but improving on that could be critical to the results of the rest of the season.

Scoring is down for the Caps, last year to this:

2006-2007: 91 goals (3.37/game)
2007-2008: 63 goals (2.33/game)

The difference here is stunning – more than a goal a game. In the first 27 games last year, the Caps scored more than four goals seven times. This year…three times. Conversely, last year the Caps scored fewer than two goals five times in their first 27 games. This year…nine times. One game in three the Caps have scored one or no goals.

The Caps are one of four teams having only five players in double-digits in points (the Rangers, Sharks, and Blues being the others, although all have played fewer games than the Caps). Detroit has five players with more than 20 points. 33 man-games lost by the trio of Chris Clark, Alexander Semin, and Tom Poti no doubt have contributed to that anemic record, but the nominal opening night third line of Clark, Boyd Gordon, and Matt Pettinger having a combined eight goals (five of those by Clark, and most scored while not on that line) was not in the season’s game plan, either.

On defense, though…

2006-2007: 87 goals (3.22/game)
2007-2008: 78 goals (2.89/game)

A ten percent improvement – a third of a goal a game – is improvement. Given that the Caps were thought by many to be still a struggling team on the defensive side coming into this season, the improvement can be considered a bit of a surprise. They are giving up fewer goals per game than three clubs in the playoff mix – Nashville, Colorado, and Carolina.

For those who argue that the Capitals defense is the source of their problems, we can say that the defense is not yet top-notch, but it is not the source of the problem, either. Even the Rangers, whose offense is worse than Washington’s so far, has dropped off by 0.85 goals/game from a similar point last year (through 26 games), compared to the 1.04 dropoff the Caps have experienced. No club can fall off by more than a goal a game on offense and have reasonable expectations of making the playoffs, not in this NHL.

Perhaps the good news here is that Bruce Boudreau seems more of an offensive-oriented, attack-based coach than was Glen Hanlon. Given a few days to perfect the system he wants to install, the Caps might come out in the “second period” of the season with a little more juice in their game. The early returns were encouraging…in 21 games under Hanlon, the Caps averaged 2.24 goals/game; under Boudreau so far in six games – 2.67 goals/game. It isn’t a lot of games to draw conclusions, and it isn’t the large improvement this club might need to get back into the thick of things. But it is an improvement, and the Caps “look” more energized in the last half dozen games than they have since the first few games of the season.

On an icy road

The Purdue University web site has this to say about its club sports program:

The Club Sports Program offers a unique blend of team and individual sports with intercollegiate opportunities for club members. Each club receives professional guidance, facility usage, and some financial support. Club members help with their own expenses through payment of individual semester and/or annual dues, fund-raising projects, and special assessments.

These are kids who participate out of their love of the sport. But misfortune hit the Purdue men's ice hockey club squad yesterday on a road in Indiana. The program reports:

A member of the Purdue University Ice Hockey Club team died and seven of his teammates were injured Saturday afternoon (Dec. 1) when the van in which they were riding rolled over after sliding on ice-slickened Ind. 25, five miles north of Wingate, Ind.

The accident occurred at about 3:45 p.m. as the 20 team members, two coaches and a manager were traveling to the David S. Palmer Arena in Danville, Ill., for a scheduled 5 p.m. game against Holy Cross College of South Bend, Ind.

The Purdue Exponent -- the student newspaper -- reports that the student killed in the accident is defenseman Andrew Jackson, of Chanhassen, MN. It might not get the attention of the larger programs of their sister schools in the Big Ten, such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Michigan State, but in its own right it is a successful program -- winners of nine of their first 11 games this year -- and this morning we thought we'd remember these kids and their fans for their loss and their love of the sport.

A TWO point night: Caps 2 - Panthers 1

Free at last, free at last, thank Brent almighty, we are free at last…

OK, if not free, at least on the winning side of a one-goal game for a change – a 2-1 victory over the Florida Panthers – thanks to Brent Johnson and Alexander Ovechkin.

Brent Johnson turned aside 24 of 25 shots to earn his first win since opening night – he’s given up one goal in each of his wins – while Alex Ovechkin assisted on the Caps’ first goal (Brian Pothier) and scored the game winner.

It was a herky-jerky game from front to back, although the Caps dominated the territorial play for virtually the entire game. Truth be told, this looked like one of those games where the Panthers thought they needed to merely toss their sticks on the ice, and something magical would happen between game-saving stops from goaltender Tomas Vokoun.

Vokoun lived up to his part of the bargain in stopping 41 shots. But the two he didn’t…not pretty.

With less than four minutes gone in the contest, Brian Pothier took a cross-ice feed from Alex Ovechkin and with the puck on edge, rifled a slap-shot that befuddled Vokoun enough to trickle through the goalie’s pads. After Branislav Mezei scored his first goal since before goalies wore masks, Alex Ovechkin flattened a Panther in the Florida zone – earning shrieks of disapproval from Panther fans – then as the puck found its way back to his stick, he sent a no-chance, no-angle shot from the goal line to Vokoun’s right that hit the inside of Vokoun’s left skate and trickled inches over the line.

That, as they say, was that. There were some moments, though…

-- Jeff Schultz rebounded smartly from a difficult game last night. You’ll see a very quiet stat sheet for him, but the +2 in 13 minutes jumps out. Not so much for the being on the ice for two goals scored by the Caps (he added an assist), but for not being on ice for any goals against.

-- Somewhere in Matt Pettinger’s distant past, he walked under a ladder or had a black cat cross his path or refused to buy Girl Scout cookies, or something…if there is anyone in the NHL with less scoring luck than this guy…well, there isn’t. He had several excellent chances to bury the Panthers tonight, but the puck either went wide, or Vokoun found a piece of it. To Pettinger’s credit, he’s still plugging out there.

-- Quintin Laing had four more blocked shots in less than 13 minutes of ice time. As a situational player, he’s looking like a smart call-up…and he even had a couple of scoring chances of his own tonight.

-- Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes he gets you…David Steckel took it on the chin in the circle tonight, losing 13 of 18 draws (27.8 percent)

-- 43 and 20…that is the shots on goal and the misfires (seven attempts blocked, 13 missed shots). This number seems to have improved lately. Now, if only some more of those shots would find the back of the net. One might note that the Panthers had 33 misfires (20 attempts blocked, 13 missed shots) and only 25 shots on goal.

-- 33 hits for Florida?...what, they count breathing on guys as hits?

-- Notice Ovechkin out there on the next to last shift of the game (skating almost a full two minutes) and getting two of his three blocked shots?

-- The Capitals’ second period woes aren’t an illusion. This was the first road game in which the Capitals hadn’t surrendered a second period goal since the 7-1 win in Toronto on October 29^th. They were 2-5-1 on the road since then, before winning – and shutting out the Panthers in the second period – tonight.

-- Ovechkin took two penalties tonight, one of the head-scratching variety when he finished a check on Mezei and was whistled for high-sticking, the other when he flattened Nathan Horton with a cross-check after Horton took some liberties with a Cap in the Washington crease…we were wondering why it was left to Ovechkin to mete out that ounce of justice.

The Caps now have five days off with a good taste in their mouths before they undertake another back-to-back next Friday and Saturday against New Jersey and Atlanta. It is time to hammer in some of the things coach Bruce Boudreau wants to install, and it’s a chance to put aside the memory of a difficult November (3-10-2). If you’re asking Santa for presents, maybe you could ask him for nine or ten wins in December. It might take that to pull the Caps back into contention for a playoff spot.

Those last few seconds...

The Nashville Predators and the Montreal Canadiens skated to a shootout this evening. The shootout was not the fun part of the evening, though. Montreal held a 4-1 lead more than 12 minutes into the third period. Nashville came storming back to tie the game in regulation with three late goals. But that wasn’t the fun part, either.

Nope, for me the fun part was the last ten seconds of overtime. Greg DeVries cross-checked Patrice Brisebois in the neutral zone, but that wasn’t even the good part. As Tomas Plekanec was skating into the offensive zone with speed down the left wing side, David Legwand mauled him along the boards, drawing a hooking penalty in the dying seconds. The clock ran out before play stopped and the penalty could be enforced.

It sort of begs the question, here we had a player who had an offensive advantage, and with the clock running out on the hockey portion of the game, the defender had little to lose by taking what looked like an “intentional” penalty. Just throwing it out there, but do we need to see teams that take a penalty in the defensive zone in the last ten seconds or so of overtime pay a stiffer price than merely having the penalty recorded in the official statistics?

By the way, Nashville won the game 5-4 in the shootout that Legwand might have preserved.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, December 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s a back-to-backer this evening as the Caps head down the road to visit the Florida Panthers. And after last night’s 4-3 loss to Carolina – a weird, bad luck game to be sure – it’s time to break out the serious weaponry in an effort to head off this six weeks of awful luck. So what do we have here? We’re joined by occultist Luke E. Charm to see if we can’t find something to ward off the evil spirits that seem to inhabit the Caps’ sticks these days…Luke, welcome…

“Thank you, Peerless…’charmed’ to be here.”

Uh, yeah…so, what have you got for us, today?

“Well, I thought we’d start with the horseshoe. You’ve probably seen these in many places…”

Certainly, and shouldn’t the ends point up so that the good luck doesn’t run out?

“Depends on where you are…in some places, the ends point down so the luck can pour onto you…in others they point up so it doesn’t run out.”

Guess the Caps have been keeping theirs sideways lately…what about the rabbit’s foot?

“Well, you can’t just use any rabbit’s foot…if you’re looking for luck, you need the left-hind foot of a rabbit killed by a cross-eyed person during a full moon, then carry it in your left pocket…”

I don’t think the Reebok Edge uniform system provides for left pockets…

“What about keys…if you wear three keys, you’ll ‘unlock’ the doors to health, wealth, and love…”

Health we sure could use, but where are you going to wear keys on the uniform?

“Well, then how about the four-leaf clover…for hope, faith, love, and luck?”

How about goals?...you have anything for goals in there?

“hmm…how about acorns…a symbol of good luck, fecundity, and fruits of labor?”

Hey, that sounds promising…but they looks more like walnuts to me…

“oops, that’s a snack…"

OK, maybe we’ll save the good luck charms for another day, but tonight the Caps get the Florida Panthers – again – and that means…yes, another chance to win a game against these clowns.

This marks the fourth time in nine games the Caps have faced the Panthers, and the first three were not a treat for Caps fans. Besides going 0-3-0, here is the “tale o’ the tape”…

Goals: Panthers 7 - Caps 5 (we don’t count that shootout crap)
Power Play: Panthers: 1/9 (11.1 percent) – Caps: 1/14 (7.1 percent)
Penalty Kill: Panthers: 13/14 (92.9 percent) – Caps: 8/9 (88.9 percent)
Shorthanded Goals: Caps 1 – Panthers 0
Hits: Caps 50 – Panthers 46
Faceoffs: Panthers: 81/157 (51.6 percent) – Caps 76/157 (48.4 percent)
Turnovers: Panthers 40 – Caps 51
Shots on Goal: Caps 90 – Panthers 80

Scoring:

Florida:

Richard Zednik: 2-2-4
Josef Stempel: 0-4-4
Ruslan Salei: 0-3-3
Kamil Kreps: 2-0-2
Olli Jokinen: 2-0-2
David Boorh: 1-0-1
Stephen Weiss: 0-1-1
Ville Peltonen: 0-1-1
Radek Dvorak: 0-1-1

Total: 7-12-19

Washington:

Michael Nylander: 0-3-3
Chris Clark: 2-0-2
Alex Ovechkin: 1-1-2
Alexander Semin: 1-0-1
Brooks Laich: 1-0-1
Brian Pothier: 0-1-1
Tomas Fleischmann: 0-1-1

Total: 5-6-11

There is next to no difference in the performance of these teams, except that the Caps have always been on the short side of a one-goal result (a third of the nine one-goal losses the Caps have suffered; they are 2-8-1). If there is one thing that we noticed in those results above, it is the singular nature of the Caps’ scoring. Five goals and only six assists. Two of the goals were scored unassisted (the Clark shorthanded goal, and Laich). Except for an unassisted goal by Kamil Kreps, all of the goals scored by the Panthers had the maximum number of assists attached. It suggests that the Panthers have had some – not much, but some – more continuity in their offense. The Caps’ goals are largely individual efforts.

Thus far, it’s been the Olaf Kolzig vs. Tomas Vokoun contest in net. Florida has won all three meetings by that one goal. With the Caps having played last night, and Brent Johnson having a good record against the Panthers over his career (4-2-1, 2.45, .923), one would think Johnson will get the start tonight. Since Vokoun hasn’t played since his start against the Caps last Wednesday and is 3-0 this year against them, the Panthers really have no reason not to send him out again.

The Caps are at the point where looking past the game in front of them is of little use. A team that won almost half of its total of wins in the first three games of the season is not one of which a long winning streak can be anticipated. Win one…maybe win another…then we’ll see. But for now, win just one.

That’s what we’re calling for…

Caps 4 – Panthers 3

…but maybe we’ll see if we can find that acorn.

No goal, no goal, no points...Hurricanes 4 - Caps 5...uh, 4....uh, no...3

Sucks, doesn't it?

Just when the Caps find they can put the puck in the net, it doesn't count. Not once, but twice the good guys found goals overturned on review, and in the one instance a Carolina Hurricanes goal was reviewed, it stood. That was the difference in a 4-3 Carolina win over the Caps this evening.

It would be hard to fault the Caps' effort, but execution?...yeesh, especially deep in their own end.

Cory Stillman was left alone at goaltender Olaf Kolzig's left and had time for the puck to hit him in the logo of his jersey, settle the puck, and fire it into the cage. He was wearing red...someone had to see him. But then, Donald Brashear's indifferent clear that didn't make it to the neutral zone started the whole sequence.

Matt Cullen ends up at Kolzig's left, chipping a feed from Ray Whitney that found it's way over Kolzig's shoulder and into the net, and another Cap is in the vicinity watching the play instead of participating in it.

Rod Brind'Amour send one out in front from behind the net, trying to bank it off of Kolzig. But Kolzig is down, so that isn't going to work. Enter Alex Ovechkin, who bladed the airborne puck into his own net for the fourth, and game-winning goal.

Add in the did-he-or-didn't-he high stick the puck into the net goal by Brind'Amour in the second period, and it made for a weird night for the Caps.

The boys dug in and clawed back, to their credit. But the only ones who was rewarded were Ovechkin, with his two goals (scored for the Caps), and Michael Nylander. Ovechkin had one disallowed when video replay found (correctly) that he kicked the puck in. Mike Green had one disallowed when video found (again, correctly) that the puck crossed the goal line after the end of the second period. Add to that the chances that Ovechkin had late (he could have had five goals tonight, even without the own-goal he scored on Kolzig) and chances that Nicklas Backstrom had from in close -- he had five shots on goal, most of which were excellent scoring chances -- and the Caps didn't suffer for opportunity.

But like most games like this year, opportunity didn't translate into results. 35 shots on goal, and only three go in...while at the other end, it seemed every weird bounce that ended up on the Washington net went in.

One knows that young guys -- especially defensemen -- are going to have games where they struggle, and it's hard to get on them for that. But Jeff Schultz had a tough game tonight (you, dear reader, might have other words for it). Minus-three, and he was the one victimized on Stillman's goal and Cullen's goal by what seemed to be watching rather than playing.

Odd as it sounds, the Caps weren't far from providing Kolzig with a shutout. But for some poor defense in deep around him and a couple of odd bounces involving Rod Brind'Amour, this was a game the Capitals, if not dominated, certainly had the upper hand in for most of the game. Carolina managed only 19 shots on goal -- they had more shots than that blocked (21), a credit to the Caps team defense. The absence of Boyd Gordon was filled admirably by call-up Quintin Laing, who had four of those blocked shots.

For once, special teams did not let the Caps down. Two-for-seven on the power play and shutting out the Hurricanes on their five power plays was a good night on special teams play. With tonight's effort, the Caps are 5-for-11 on the power play and 9-for-9 on the penalty kill in the last two games against Carolina.

We were wondering, though...did Tomas Fleischmann play tonight? We seem to remember his having been kabonged once, but other than that mention, it was a pretty quiet night.

One (well, I) had the feeling watching this game that the Caps are close to breaking out. They played well and with purpose for most of this game. They were the better team.

But you know what?...it's only the score that counts, and in this season the Caps are finding new and more frustrating ways to end up on the short end of them.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

You might remember our special edition of the Prognosticator last season when we assembled a collection of esteemed medicos to explore the injury bug that hit the Capitals.

Well, the bug is back, and so is our panel of physicians…we have Drs. Dr. Marcus Welby…

“…a pleasure, Peerless.”

…James Kildare…

“truly an honor to be back..”

…Victor Ehrlich…

“…hey, Peerless…”

…and Ben Casey.

[nods under a brooding stare]

Doctors, Tarik El-Bashir reports in this morning’s Washington Post that Alexander Semin, Chris Clark, and Boyd Gordon are on the shelf with a variety of injuries. Semin’s ankle has been re-tweaked, Clark has the always ominous “groin injury,” and Gordon has an undisclosed injury that has left him in "week-to-week" status. Gentlemen, is this unusual?

Dr. Welby…”uncommon, yes…unusual, no. This is hockey, and hockey players get hurt, it’s part of the package.”

Dr. Ehrlich…”well, I just remember Dr. Craig would tell me that you just have to suck it up…and he’d roll his eyes and say something nasty after that, but he did that so often, I’ve forgotten what that was.”

Dr. Kildare, what would you advise in this situation?

Dr. Kildare…”HMO”

A health maintenance organization?

Dr. Kildare…”no, a ‘hockey mentality, Oscar.’”

Dr. Casey?

Dr. Casey…[deep sigh, followed by frown with furrowed brow]

In the meantime, what do you prescribe for the Caps?

Dr. Welby…”wins”

Dr. Kildare…”oh, I agree”

Dr. Ehrilich…”I don’t know; let me ask Dr. Craig and get back to you on that.”

Dr. Casey…”putz”

Any other remedies in the meantime?

Dr. Ehrlich…”Quintin”

Dr. Welby…”you mean, ‘quinine,’ son?”

Dr. Casey…”no you ossified fart, he said ‘Quintin’…as in “Laing?”

Dr. Kildare…”you mean Lumicaine?...for excessive sweating?”

Dr. Casey…”no, pretty boy…Laing…Laing…Quintin Laing…played with Hershey?...called up for this game?...get with the program, fellas.”

OK, so the depleted Caps will take the ice tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes, and Quintin Laing has been called up from the Bears to fill in for the injured. For the Caps, it is a chance to build on last Saturday’s 5-2 win over the Hurricanes at Verizon Center. Carolina is stumbling at the moment, losers of their last two contests and 4-6-0 in their last ten.

Carolina’s struggles have been on the defensive side of the ledger. They’ve given up 38 goals in their last ten games, four times yielding five or more goals. What it means is that if they don’t score, they don’t win. Six times in this stretch they have scored two or fewer goals, and their record is 1-5-0.

This is the front end of a back-to-back for Carolina, who visit Buffalo tomorrow evening. So, who mans the nets for the Hurricanes is uncertain. Cam Ward is 4-4-0 in the games he’s played over this ten game stretch, with 3.15, .892 numbers to go along with the win-loss record. John Grahame, who took the loss in last Saturday’s 5-2 loss to Washington, is 0-2-0, 5.03, .836. If Coach Peter Laviolette can find a way to start Ward for both games, one would think he will.

Sixteen of the 19 goals the Hurricanes have scored in the last ten games come from the sticks of five players: Rod Brind’Amour (5), Cory Stillman (4), Eric Staal (4), Justin Williams (4), and Ray Whitney (3). Carolina is not a club that gets much goal scoring from its defense (three goals all season), so the ability to contain the forwards will be of paramount concern here.

For the Caps, a recovery is in order. After winning their first two games under interim coach Bruce Boudreau (outscoring opponents, 9-5), they’ve stumbled with losses in their last two, one in a shootout (outscored in real goals, 4-2). The old problems resurfaced in those last two…no goal scoring. Decent performances by Olaf Kolzig (0-1-1, 1.95, .930) were wasted as the Caps could manage just the two goals on 64 shots. Of that total, Alexander Ovechkin has one goal on 20 shots. That the rest of the squad could manage but a single goal on 44 shots is of no minor concern. That the rest of the squad had only 44 shots (1.3 shots-per-skater/game) is just as troubling.

The Caps also have a back-to-back set, with tomorrow’s contest in Florida against the Panthers. That argues for Kolzig getting the nod tonight (12-8-1, 2.23, .924 lifetime against Carolina) and Brent Johnson getting the start tomorrow.

The Caps are 2-1-0 against Carolina this season (6-14-2 against the rest of the league), so it isn’t as if they’ve lacked for success, despite having been whacked 5-0 in their only appearance in Raleigh. The Caps are visiting a team that certainly has the capacity to score, but one that has struggled on defense (including against the Caps last weekend) and especially on the power play (eight goals allowed in 21 penalty-killing chances in their last five games – 61.9 percent). That’s the recipe for a win here – a couple of power play goals and forcing the Hurricanes to play catch-up, opening up the ice…a lot like last Saturday’s game (without the nail-biting in the third period)…

Caps 5 – Hurricanes 3