Washington Capitals: Draft History in Context, Part III -- Mining the Second and Third Round

In this third installment of our look at the NHL Entry Draft for the Washington Capitals we take a look at what we might call the breeding ground for the foot soldiers of the NHL, the second and third rounds.  Sure, there might be a Milan Lucic (50^th overall in 2006) or a David Krejci (63^rd overall in 2004) or a Brad Marchand (71^st overall in 2006…hint, Boston has done well here).  But this is the land of the Brandon Prust (70^th overall in 2004) or a Kris Russell (67^th overall in 2005) or a Gregory Campbell (67^th overall in 2002). 

These are players generally falling into the category of “role player,” those who grind in the corners, focus on defense, or provide a physical edge.  They are the third and fourth liners or third pair defensemen, or perhaps a backup goaltender, unless you are really good or really lucky in picking in these rounds, as we will see in a bit.

For the Capitals, well, it has been something of a desert compared to the fertile ground of the first round.  Over the 2001-2010 period the Caps have had 21 selections in the second and third rounds.  Seven have reached the NHL, and three of them have appeared in at least 100 games.  Here is that roster of second and third round picks (ranked by overall selection):

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One might argue that if only a few players come out of these rounds, they still might serve as a productive source for trading assets.  In fact, the Caps have used players selected in this tranche of draft picks for just that.  Theo Ruth (46^th overall in 2007) was moved to Columbus for Sergei Fedorov.  Cody Eakin (85^th overall in 2009) was moved for Mike Ribeiro.  Chris Bourque (33^rd overall in 2004) was moved for Zach Hamill, a former eighth-overall draft pick.

There is a common theme there.  Centers.  All three of those deals mentioned above brought back a center in return, two of them specifically to address the long-standing problem of the lack of a reliable second line center.  In all three cases, though, the solution moved on – Fedorov spent one more season in Washington before moving back to Russia, Ribeiro signed as a free agent with Phoenix after one abbreviated season in Washington, and Hamill never made it to Washington, himself traded to Florida for Casey Wellman this past January.  Wellman has 41 games of NHL experience (all with Minnesota) over three seasons.

But what of the contributors to the Caps out of this second/third round pool of draftees?  Only two players – goalie Michal Neuvirth and defenseman Dmitry Orlov – remain with the club.  Neuvirth, who is the only player drafted by the club in this group and still with the team with more than 100 games on his resume, has been in a battle with someone – Semyon Varlamov, Tomas Vokoun, Braden Holtby – for the number one goalie spot almost since his selection in 2006.  He has not, however, been able to claim the job for his own on a permanent basis, serving only the 2010-2011 season in that role and playing in only 48 games in the process, his career high.

The Caps have not had much in the way of contributions from their second and third round draft picks.  Their trading assets returned short term solutions to long-standing problems, and their “contributing” players have been few and far between.  But is that unusual, or is that ordinary in the context of the other 29 teams’ performance in these rounds?  Here is the list of teams with their history, ranked in order of total selections:

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As you can see, the Caps are smack dab in the middle of the pack with respect to the number of picks taken.  Would it were true that they ranked at as high as this in the production numbers.  Among the 30 NHL teams and their second and third round picks, the Caps’ skaters rank:

• Tied for 23^rd in players dressing for at least one NHL game
• Tied for 18^th in players dressing in at least 100 NHL games
• 25^th in games played from this cohort
• 28^th in goals scored
• 26^th in total points scored

They make up for it some with Neuvirth’s performance in goal, he being ranked in the top-ten in games played (eighth) and wins (seventh) among goaltenders selected.

There is another dimension to this worth exploring, that being the ability to find high-end contributors in this area of the draft.  Let’s lay down some criteria for this.  As an arbitrary marker, let us say that an “impact” skater from the second or third round would be one with at least 200 games, at least 50 career goals, and at least 100 career points.  Who qualifies?

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Twenty teams drafting 41 players meeting these criteria suggest that the second and third round can yield something more than the garden variety grinder or third pair defenseman.  It is not common, but it is not entirely rare, either.  And, given the criteria we employed here, defensemen of an impact sort are underrepresented.  For example, this list does not include Kris Letang (62^nd overall in 2005) or Alex Goligoski (61^st overall in 2004), both selected by Pittsburgh.  It does not include Trevor Daley (43^rd overall in 2002), selected by Dallas.  It does not include P.K. Subban (43^rd overall in 2007), selected by Montreal, or Cody Franson (79^th overall in 2005), selected by Nashville.  It does not include Fedor Tyutin (40^th overall in 2001), picked by the New York Rangers, nor does it include Matt Carle (47^th overall in 2003), selected by San Jose.  All of these players would meet the games and total points threshold, but not goals.

Meanwhile, the 20 second and third round skaters chosen by the Washington Capitals have a combined total of 660 games played and a combined scoring line of 29-110-139.  Cody Eakin is the only skater who could approach being a regular NHLer, let alone being an impact player.  Nathan Paetsch, who played in 167 NHL games (none with the Caps) has not played an NHL game since 2010.  He played with Grand Rapids in the AHL in 2012-2013.  Sami Lepisto, who played in 176 NHL games (14 with Washington), did not play in the NHL in 2012-2013, playing with HC Lev Praha of the Kontinental Hockey League.

In the end, even if one tries to explain away the lack of success with the point that some of these picks were used as trading assets, the games played by this cohort and combined production, wherever they landed, cannot be spun into an argument that the Caps have been successful drafting in this area.  Not that drafting is the only avenue to success in the NHL.  Of the eight teams that realized fewer than 1,000 total games played from their respective second and third round draft picks over the 2001-2010 period, six have played in a Stanley Cup final over the last dozen years, and four of them (New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Anaheim) won Stanley Cups.  But since the last of those teams won a Cup – Anaheim in 2007 – they have fallen on generally harder times.  The lack of new blood infusion from the next tier of draft picks might have something to do with that. 

The lack of second and third round success in the draft is a matter that is especially problematic for a club that relies on the draft as its fundamental roster development tool.  If a team is not going to do well here, they almost have to hit home runs in the first round.  The Caps have done well in their first round picks, but they have lost a lot of that talent to other teams, too, as we saw in the look at those first round picks.  An inability to produce in this area of the draft – the second and third rounds – might be one of the factors in the Caps persistent difficulties in finding a solution to the second line center problem or filling out second and third defensive pairs with reliably productive players.  Other teams have found those solutions here – a David Krejci, a Paul Stastny, or even a Brandon Dubinsky.  The Caps have not.  And while one might look at a Krejci or a Stastny as an infrequent product of these rounds, the Caps have had little success in filling roles from these spots. 

As a long-time fan of this club, we really do hope things improve and that the players taken in the last few drafts make meaningful and lasting contributions to the club.  But insofar as the 2001-2010 period in concerned, this has been a signature shortcoming of the draft performance of the Capitals.

Washington Capitals: Draft History in Context, Part II -- The First Rounders

The second installment in our look at the NHL Entry Draft for the Washington Capitals focuses on the first round picks over the 2001-2010 period.  We are omitting the 2011 and 2012 drafts because from those drafts only 28 players have so far dressed for at least one NHL game.  It still leaves us with more than 2,400 players selected among the 30 teams, 300 of them taken in the first round over those ten years. 

The Caps selected 16 players in the first round over those ten years.  There are two ways to look at their performance on its own merits.  On the one hand they have been quite successful overall.  On the other, they were like the little girl with the curl in the Mother Goose rhyme… “When she was good, she was very, very good, but when she was bad, she was horrid.”

Let’s take a look at the good.  Of the 16 first round selections made by the Caps over the 2001-2010 period, 13 have dressed for at least one NHL game, and 12 of them have dressed for at least 100 NHL games (our loose criterion for a “contributing” player).  Here is that group, displayed in order of overall selection:

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It is, as a group, rather impressive. Three of the 15 skaters in the group have recorded more than 100 goals in the NHL; four have recorded more than 250 points.  It has been a sturdy group as far as their participation rates as well.  Breaking down the group, all three of the group taken in the top ten picks overall (Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Karl Alzner) have participated in at least 250 games.  Among the five taken in the second ten, four have cleared that games-played threshold.  Even among the group picked 21-30 overall the participation rates are reasonably high, five of the eight players having appeared in more than 100 games and three of them in more than 200 contests.

On the other hand, there is their playoff performance as a group.  Even accounting for the fact that the usual offensive markers will have lower values in the post-season than in the regular season, the performance of this group leaves something to be desired:

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It bears noting that this group – the presumed “skill” group among draft picks – has more penalty minutes than points in the post-season.  Of the six forwards in this group having appeared in the post-season, only Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin have averaged better than 0.75 points per game, and as a group they are only a plus-7 in 281 combined playoff games played.

You have probably noted by now that we made no allowances for the fact that the numbers cited are totals for each of the players in this group, not just their production for the Caps.  This is intentional; all we are trying to illustrate here (and in general) is the draft performance by the Caps.  But note as well that of the 16 players in this group, eight are no longer with the club and a ninth – Evgeny Kuznetsov – has yet to appear with the club.  And the total return on the eight departed players in terms of recovered assets via trade are Martin Erat, Michael Latta, and John Carlson (a portion of the return in the Semyon Varlamov trade to Colorado – a second round draft pick – was turned into Mike Ribeiro, since departed for Phoenix).  Three of the players – Sasha Pokulok, Joe Finley, and Anton Gustafsson – never played a game for the Caps.

As a group, the first round draft picks have been prolific in their performance numbers, but how does that stack up against other NHL teams?  Well, here are the 30 teams ranked by number of draft picks in the first round over the 2001-2010 period:

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Note that the Caps not only have the most first round draft picks over this period, they rank first in:

• Picks having appeared in at least one NHL game
• Picks having appeared in at least 100 NHL games
• Total games played
• Goals
• Assists
• Points
• Plus/Minus

A lot of that is Alex Ovechkin, who has more goals than 12 teams’ worth of first round draft picks over the ten-year span and more total points than seven teams’ worth of first-round picks.  Still, if Ovechkin was removed from the mix entirely, the remaining Caps first-round draft picks over the period would rank sixth in goals, second in assists, and third in total points among skaters.

What the Caps have not been with these picks is the most efficient as a group, at least in terms of offensive production among skaters.  Washington’s “average” skater taken in the first round has averaged a scoring line of 18-28-46 per 82 career games.  That ranks tied for ninth in goals, eighth in assists, and tied for eighth in points.  Much of that is a product of having drafted six defensemen and a goaltender among the 13 first-round draft picks appearing in at least one NHL game.  It is easy to make too much of that, though.  For example, Pittsburgh might have been more “efficient” in their first round production, but that is largely a product of having drafted four forwards among their seven first-rounders hitting the NHL – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal (all top-two picks), and Colby Armstrong.  As a group, those Pittsburgh draftees still trail the Caps by almost 250 goals and more than 500 points.

That is not to say that the Caps haven’t had their moments.  Every team has had them.  Only Philadelphia had a perfect score in terms of first-round draftees playing in at least 100 NHL games (eight for eight), and only seven of 30 teams managed to be perfect in getting first round draft picks to play at least one game in the NHL over the period.  But when the Caps came up short, they did it by a country mile.

Discounting Evgeny Kuznetsov, who almost certainly will appear in an NHL game at some point in the future, the Caps have had two first round draft picks not appear in any NHL games.  Not only that, it is almost a certainty they never will.  Sasha Pokulok, taken 14^th overall in the 2005 entry draft, had his career cut short by injuries.  However, one wonders what it was that the Caps saw in Pokulok in the first place.  For example, he was the 39^th ranked North American skater in the final rankings by Central Scouting, and he was the 15^th ranked defenseman.  As it was, he was the fifth defenseman picked in the 2005 draft and the only one of the first 18 defensemen picked not to have appeared in an NHL game.

The other draft pick not to have appeared in an NHL game (and not likely to do so) is Anton Gustafsson.  Son of former Capital Bengt Gustafsson, his selection is a peculiar one.  Gustafsson was the fifth ranked international skater in the Central Scouting final 2008 amateur rankings, but in overall rankings projected as a late first round or early second round pick (for example, tsn.ca ranked him 30^th overall).    It was not that much of a leap to think of Gustafsson being a 21-30 pick, but the Capitals’ made the effort to ensure that he would be their pick.  The Caps held the 23^rd overall pick in the first round of the 2008 draft, but traded that pick (and the 54^th overall pick) to the New Jersey Devils to move up two spots to 21^st overall.  The effect was to leap-frog the Edmonton Oilers, meaning that the Caps had to be convinced that their player – Gustafsson – would be taken by the Oilers.  The Caps got their man.  A year later he signed a three-year entry level deal with the club.  But by October 2010 he was out of North American hockey altogether, his resume limited to one game with the Hershey Bears in the AHL.  In one of those things to be filed under “the best laid plans…” the Oilers – the team the Caps leapfrogged – picked Jordan Eberle, who has 68 goals in 195 career NHL games.

One other pick merits notice.  Joe Finley was taken with the 27^th overall pick in the 2005 draft.  It was a case of another trade-up pick.  Washington sent the 47^th and 52^nd overall picks to Colorado for the 27^th overall pick with which they selected Finley.  Again, one would have to think Finley was a targeted player.  This pick, however, made some sense in the context of the time.  The NHL had not yet seen the rules and rink specifications altered to increase opportunities for offense.  The league was in the last throes of its “clutch and grab” era, although it might not have known it at the time.  In that context, a 6’7”, 245 pound defenseman made some sense.  But the league did change, and Finley was an endangered species less than a year after his selection in the draft.  He would not play a game for the Caps, in fact playing only eight games with the Hershey Bears before leaving the organization and signing as a free agent with Buffalo in November 2011.  He played five games in 2011-2012 with the Sabres before moving on to the New York Islanders where he dressed for 16 games in the 2012-2013 season.

In the end, the Caps have done quite well drafting in the first round overall.  In terms of players making the leap to the NHL and contributing at a level that keeps them in the lineup, no team did better over the 2001-2010 period.  With respect to drafting players who carry the mail, who make the big contributions to offensive production, they have a very good record.  They have had a couple of odd brain spasms along the way, trading up to make picks that yielded no return and overvaluing a prospect picked in the mid-first round when he appeared to be more of a second round sort of selection.  But getting a perfect score in the first round is a rare occurrence in the NHL.

Where the picks have come up short is in the post-season, not necessarily a surprise, given the Caps’ post-season record over the last half-dozen years.  That limits the enthusiasm one might have over the first-rounders overall.  But even when compared to the first rounders league-wide, one would have to conclude that when choosing among the top 30 picks over the 2001-2010 period, the Caps have done well.

Washington Capitals: D-Camp 2013, Day 2...Skate, Skate Again, and Skate Some More

The morning sessions of Day 2 might best be described as "skate, skate skate... skate and shoot(y)..."  OK, that's a bad use of a song lyric.  But the morning session feature a lot of end to end skating and a lot of shooting at the end of it.  The first group at 9:15 was deployed as follows:

Forwards:

• Red jerseys: Wilson, Legeault, Burakovsky
• Green: Boyd, LaPorte, Tanev
• Gray: Pinho, MacPhee, Stephenson
• White: Sanford, Harnden, Linsmayer

Defense:

• Kucera/Lewington
• Koudys/Bowey
• Schmidt/Joyaux
• Rissling/Haar

Goalies: Anderson Leonhardt, Guindon

Head coach Adam Oates ran the first session, and what he seemed to be emphasizing was pace from end-to-end.  Most of the drills involved either skating end-to-end or starting in one zone, looping back, and then attacking the goal.  There was much one-on-one, two-on-one, and two-on-two activity, but despite the fast pace of the hour-long session the boys seemed to be in good shape from start to finish.

The one drill we were intrigued by was a one-on-one drill that started with the puck placed on the blue line closest to the goaltender.  Two players were then set free from the other end in a race for the puck.  The "loser" of the race was left to defend the "winner," often trying to defend was in effect a breakaway on the goalie.

After the session ended, the players did their post-practice stretches and filed off the ice, there was one more impromptu competition to be held.  Caps first round draft pick Andre Burakovsky and three coaches hung around to see who was more adept in rink-long, bank-shot-off-the-wall shooting accuracy.  Burakovky and associate goalie coach Olaf Kolzig won the competition.

Burakovsky was the last Cap off the ice, owing to that competition, but before that he also spent some time after the session horsing around with linemate Tom Wilson doing cross-rink trick passes.  Someday, those two might be linemates for real on the parent club.  That would be the plan, anyway.

The 10:50 session was run by new Hershey Bears head coach Mike Haviland.  Here were the lines and pairs:

Forwards:

• Red: Barber, Foster, Larson
• Green: Murphy, Hilbrich, Braid
• Gray: Baun, Stefishen,Herbert
• White: Anas, Leier, Monardo

Defense:

• Young/Wey
• Monfredo/Carrick
• Cajkovsky/Walsh
• Petgrave/Heinrich

Goalies: Saunders/Kostenko

The second session very much resembled the first session with the drills and emphasis very similar in nature.  There was one tweak at the end.  In place of the one-on-one sprint to the puck, the team broke up into the forwards group at one end and the defense at the other. 

We paid closer attention to the group of defensemen, who assembled at the top of the offensive zone in the middle of the ice.  Each was fed the puck, and with coach Yanick Jean playing the role of a defender trying to get his stick in the way of a shot, the defenseman was charged with skating out from the shadow of the stick and finding a shooting lane.  Defensemen getting shots through to the goalie is a big part of the offensive tools of that position, and here was a chance to work on just that.

Tomorrow camp starts for real with the first intrasquad scrimmage.  We imagine the guys will be thnankful for the change in pace from drills and testing.  In the meantime, here are some pictures from this morning's sessions...

Hey...check this...between the legs, right on the tape...

Watch this, rook... off the wall...middle of the net

Lonely goalie...nobody to play with...

Hey...aren't there defensemen in this drill??

 HAH-hah...too slow...

I'm WAIT-innnnng...

igotitigotitigotit...

...oops

Washington Capitals: D-Camp 2013, Day 1...Testing, one, two, three...

Development Camp 2013 for the Washington Capitals got off to a rousing...well, early...start this muggy Monday with a morning of on-ice testing.  The on-ice testing was confined to skating drills, one of the timed-between-the-blue-lines test, another of a sprint from a standing start behind the goal line to the red line, and the last being the infamous "slalom" that starts goal-line left, circles out and around the top of the face-off circle, down and around the bottom of the opposite circle, then a sprint to the finish at the blue line.

Two teams participated in the morning on-ice testing sessions on the Arlington Rink at Kettler Capitals Iceplex.  Let's see if we got this right in terms of participants:

Team White, the First (skaters)...Wey, Monfredo, Foster, Walsh, Baun, Henrich, Leier, Barber, Anas, Petgrave, Cajkovsky, Larson, Young, Latta, Carrick, Herbert, Braid, Stefishen, Murphy, Hilbrich.

Team White, the Second (skaters)... Wilson, Tanev, Burakovsky, Kucera, Pinho, MacPhee, Legeault, Koudys, Haar, Boyd, Stephenson, Lewington, Harnden, Linsmayer, Joyaux, LaPorte, Schmidt, Rissling, Bowey.

Refer to this excellent summary for more details on the players.

There is little in terms of excitement in this phase of camp. Much of it is standing around as the sensors are put in place (and that infernal tone shuts off to indicate they are in alignment).  But the slalom does have its moments.  Someone always wipes out.  Must be that the coaches, being sadistic sorts, lay down the path by pouring water on the surface.  Makes things nice and slick.  In the first session the unfortunate soul to skid off into the boards was Connor Carrick.  He was given a round of sympathetic stick taps for his effort, if by "sympathetic" you mean, "derisive."  It's the law.

The second session saw a two-fer in the slalom wipe out competition.   Nate Schmidt hit the far wall on turn two in a wipe out worthy of a NASCAR race at Darlington Raceway.  He was immediately followed by Connor Kucera, whose effort was less spectacular, but none the less for style.  It was a difficult morning for "Connors."

As an added treat, when the first Team White was finished with its on-ice testing, it was over to the Capitals Rink to give the goalies some work -- Sergey Kostenko, Clarke Saunders, Louis-Philip Guindon, and Brandon Anderson.  Most of the work was of a reflex sort, shooters being fed the puck in the slot for one-timers.  Goalie coaches Dave Prior and Olaf Kolzig were on hand to provide timely advice.

You certainly can tell who has been around the barn a bit and who has not, just given their carriage on the ice.  But by the end of the week, they'll all be veterans of a certain type.  The first step to being veterans of the NHL type.  Good luck, boys.

And now, for some photos of the morning sessions...

The goal-line to red-line sprint... your turn will come, lab rats.

"Think we'll see Alex Ovechkin?..."

"...I was hoping we'd see Maria."

Careful, careful, careful...that second turn's a b*tch...

Connor Carrick is none the worse for wear after his earlier wipeout...

Olaf Kolzig coaching in a coachly pose.

This is your glove hand...it's the one with the glove on it.

These four guys might learn more in these few minutes than they will all season.

Second Session Slalom!

"I got this..."

Washington Capitals: Draft History in Context, Part I

On June 30^th the National Hockey League held its 51^st entry draft.  For many young hockey players it is a rite of passage from amateur status to taking the first step to an NHL career.  For the clubs drafting these youngsters it is a signal of hope and expectation, that one of these youngsters taken might lift the Stanley Cup over his head in celebration in a season yet to come.

For the Washington Capitals, who participated in their 34^th NHL Entry Draft at the end of June, it was another statement that this is the key tool they use to build their club.  It is a goal that, in their words, “always has been to draft, develop and retain our own players.”

Fair enough.  Growing your own rather than assembling parts from trades, free agency, or waivers is, on its face, a sound strategy.  A team can build the team it wants to fit the philosophy it employs, and it can do so cheaply, given the contours of the collective bargaining agreement with respect to entry-level contracts and restricted free agency.  If a club can get contributions from young players on such early-career contracts, it is the sort of efficiency that can allow that club to fill in its holes by other means – trades, free agents, or waivers.

But our concern here is the draft.  If the draft is the tool of choice to build a core of contributing players, we are left with two questions.  First, how well has the club drafted on its own merits?  Second, how well has that club drafted relative to its peers?  

We will take some time to look at those questions in the context of ten years of drafting history – from 2001 through 2010.  We do not include either the 2011 or 2012 drafts owing to the lead time it takes for all but the most elite draftees to climb the development ladder and reach the NHL.

Over the days to come we will look at the 89 draft picks of the Washington Capitals over that ten-year period and the 2,448 selections league-wide over that period.  To do that, let us start at the top with a demographic profile.  What does this collection of 89 draft picks for the Caps look like?

Over the 2001-2010 period the Caps had the benefit of a lot of first round picks.  In fact, even though the Caps ranked tied for seventh in total draft picks over the 2001-2010 period, their 16 total first round draft picks was the most of any team in the league.  Compare that to the four that the Detroit Red Wings had over the same span of time.  As one might expect with such a preponderance of first round picks, the Caps did not have as much to pick from in the second and third rounds – rounds where teams might find contributors, if not stars.  The Caps ranked tied for 10^th in total second-round picks and tied for 20^th in total third-round picks over that ten-year period.  After that, the Caps rank in the middle-of-the-pack as far as picks by round are concerned.  Here is how the picks break down by round over the ten years:

By position, the Caps drafted 17 centers, 35 wingers, 27 defensemen, and 10 goalies.  Here is how those picks by position broke down by round taken:

Defenseman has been the featured position in early rounds with 13 blueliners picked among the 28 first and second round picks over the 2001-2010 period.  What might look surprising among the 28 picks is that the Capitals selected barely as many centers (four) as goaltenders (three).  Centers were more often the pick in middle rounds, comprising 11 of the 43 players selected from the third through the sixth rounds, although even here the total picks at that position trailed the number of wingers picked and was only as many as those taken on defense.

Where the Caps spent most of their energy in drafts over the 2001-2010 period was in drafting wingers or generic “forwards,” of which they selected 35 among their 89 picks.  By round the Caps selected more wingers than centers in all rounds in the aggregate except among third-round picks, four centers selected in that round over the ten-year period compared to two wingers.

So as we move forward looking at this ten-year period of the NHL Entry Draft, this is where we start.  The Washington Capitals’ 89 draft picks overall rank tied for seventh among the 30 NHL teams over that period.  They have more first round picks overall than any other NHL team, and those picks focused more on wingers and defensemen (12) than on centers and goaltenders (four).  Wingers and defensemen have been the focus overall, with 62 of the 89 draft picks in the ten-year span devoted to those positions, 27 to centers (17) and goaltenders (10).

How have they done?  Well, that is what we will take a look at in the days ahead.

Rite of Summer

Washington Capitals -- 2013 Draft: A Well Traveled Path to a First Rounder

With their first round pick (23^rd overall) in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, the Washington Capitals selected Andre Burakovsky of the Malmo Redhawks of HockeyAllsvenskan in Sweden.  Observers of the Capitals are hardly surprised.  The Caps have worn a path between Arlington, Virginia, and Sweden over the years in their search for amateur talent.  Here is the history of draft picks from Sweden since 2000…

Of the last ten first round draft picks taken by the Caps, starting with Nicklas Backstrom with the fourth overall pick in 2006, five come out of teams in Sweden.  The early returns on draft picks from Sweden at the beginning of the 2000’s was not very good, owing largely to those picks coming in later rounds.  But three of four first round picks before Burakovsky, starting with Backstrom, either played significant numbers of games for the Caps (Backstrom, Marcus Johansson), or they (“they” being Filip Forsberg) yielding a solid veteran in trade.
   

Burakovsky might be a year or two away from coming to North America, but the path he takes to get here is a familiar one in recent Caps history.

Washington Capitals: The 2013 Season -- Ten (well...six) Games that Mattered: Capitals at Rangers, May 6th

The last of the six games that mattered for the Washington Capitals in the 2013 season was a playoff game.  No, it was not the 5-0 thrashing the Caps received at the hands of the New York Rangers in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal matchup.  In retrospect, that game was foretold by what would happen – or more precisely, did not happen – in an earlier game of the series…

May 6, 2013: Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Game 3

Washington Capitals (2-0) at New York Rangers (0-2)

Result: Rangers 4 – Capitals 3

The Background:  Coming into the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs the Washington Capitals had taken a two-games-to-none lead in a seven-game playoff series six times in franchise history.  They never won that third game in those series to make it 3-0..

That made Game 3 of their 2013 Eastern Conference quarterfinal series against the New York Rangers a game of special interest.  They took the Madison Square Garden ice against the Rangers on May 6^th having won Games 1 and 2 at Verizon Center, hoping to win that third game to take a 3-0 lead in games for the first time ever in a seven-game series.

While winning Game 3 was important to the Rangers to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination, the Game was just as important for the Caps.  In those previous six series in which they won Games 1 and 2, but lost Game 3, they went on to lose four of those series. The Caps had just a 2-3 record in series in which they won Games 1 and 2 on home ice. 

Why it mattered:  Winning Games 1 and 2 at home means, if you think of it from the opponent’s point of view, that the winners merely “held serve,” in tennis parlance. Now, with Game 3 and 4 on Ranger ice, it was the New Yorkers’ chance to do the same.  For the Caps the task was simple in concept, difficult to execute – score first, take the crowd out of the game, make the Rangers play catch-up, make them grow more desperate, and then take advantage of the opportunities to drive a stake through the Rangers’ chances to win.

The Caps got the first part of it right barely four minutes into the first period.  It was a superb effort by Nicklas Backstrom that led to the game’s first goal.  It started when he stepped in and picked up a loose puck that the Caps’ Martin Erat and the Rangers’ Brian Boyle were fighting over in the corner to the left of goalie Henrik Lundqvist.  Backstrom carried around the end wall, fighting off defenseman Anton Stralman all the way around the boards and half way up the wall to the right of Lundqvist.  He then one-handed the puck up to John Erskine at the point, who slid it over to John Carlson at the opposite point.  As this was going on, Backstrom was circling back to the middle, putting him in excellent position to try to tip any shot Carlson might attempt on net. That is exactly what occurred, Carlson’s drive tipped down and through the legs of Lundqvist to give the Caps a 1-0 lead and quiet the Madison Square Garden crowd. 

The Caps had an opportunity to further demoralize the Rangers and the crowd as they were killing off a Joel Ward high-sticking call midway through the period.  They almost got out from under the man-disadvantage, but Brian Boyle was allowed to walk in from the right wing wall, and with Mike Green having gone to one knee in what was, one assumed, a defensive posture, Boyle curled around him and snapped a shot past goalie Braden Holtby just as the Ward penalty expired.

Then it was the Rangers turn to take the lead.  Less than 90 seconds into the second period Derick Brassard connected on a power play, wrong footing a wrist shot from the slot past Holtby’s blocker to give the Rangers a 2-1 lead.  The Rangers almost got out of the period with that lead, but with less than three minutes left it was Mike Green tying the game for the Caps.  It started with Eric Fehr working hard along the left wing boards to work the puck out to Mathieu Perrreault.  He worked the puck back down the wall to Jason Chimera, who backhanded a pass through his legs back to Perreault.  From the left wing circle Perreault slid the puck to Green at the top of the right wing circle.  Green walked in undisturbed and wristed the puck over Lundqvist’s glove to tie the game at two-apiece heading into the second intermission.

The Caps were victimized early in a period once more and from an unexpected source once more when Arron Asham was left alone in front of Holtby to take a pass from Brassard and wrist the puck into the back of the net to give the Rangers a 3-2 lead.  Less than five minutes later it was four unsung Caps combining their efforts to tie the game once more.  It started with Matt Hendricks winning a faceoff in the offensive end against Boyle.  The puck was drawn back to Jack Hillen at the left point, with a helpful nudge along the way by Joel Ward.  Hillen wristed it toward the Ranger net, barely missing Ward on its way through.  It did not miss Jay Beagle, though, who was just enough in the line of flight to have the puck deflect off his equipment, changing its track to the left of Lundqvist’s left pad and in.

The Rangers took the lead for a third time as the clock approached the five minute mark of the period.  It started with Ryan McDonagh holding the puck at the Capitals’ blue line and stepping around Alex Ovechkin to work it down the left wing wall.  The Rangers then ran the puck around the end wall – McDonagh to Mats Zuccarello in the left wing corner, then Zuccarello throwing the puck across to Rick Nash in the right wing corner.  Nash then fed a centering pass to Derek Stepan, who came all the way from the neutral zone (backstopping McDonagh as he was trying to hold the puck in at the start of the play) to the low slot, in perfect position to redirect the puck past Holtby.

The Caps had one more chance to send the game into overtime.  Brad Richards took a slashing penalty on Ovechkin with 1:54 left in regulation.  The Caps furiously pressed the matter in front of the Ranger net as the clock was winding down, but they could not manage a shot on goal in what was a 6-on-4 power play.  They attempted three shots, one of which was a Troy Brouwer miss, the other two from Nicklas Backstrom, both blocked by Ranger defenders.  When the last shot was blocked and the puck cleared down the ice, the Rangers held their serve with a 4-3 win.

The Takeaway:  The Caps had their chances.  Then again, they had their chances in other two-games-to-none situations over the years.  In this one, Alex Ovechkin had 11 shot attempts, but only two on net, none after the first period. Braden Holtby, who stopped 59 of 60 shots in Games 1 and 2 at Verizon Center, a .983 save percentage, allowed four goals on 30 shots in this contest.  The Caps let the Rangers back into the game – and the series – on the sticks of foot soldiers like Brian Boyle and Arron Asham.  The penalty killers let the Caps down, allowing Boyle’s goal just as a penalty expired and then allowing a power play goal to give the Rangers their first lead.  At the other end, the Caps not only drew a blank on their own power play, going 0-for-3, but they managed just one power play shot on goal in 5:54 of power play time.  It was an opportunity to take control of the series… wasted.

In the end…

You could see it coming.  Here is the Washington Post’s Katie Carrera describing the attitude at the morning skate…

“The mood at the Capitals’ morning skate Monday at Madison Square Garden ahead of Game 3 was noticeably relaxed. Players whooped it up on the ice, joking and teasing each other as they worked through drills and line rushes.”

Braden Holtby was the one who expressed a certain concern…

“It’s good to a point. I’m not sure we want it as loose as this morning.  It’s still playoff time and you never want to get comfortable. When you’re starting to get loose, you can tell guys are starting to get comfortable and whatnot.”

Maybe the playful attitude in the morning had nothing to do with what transpired in the evening.  Still, it could have been a special moment for the Caps – the first three-games-to-none lead in a seven game playoff series in team history.  But like six teams before them holding a 2-0 lead, they left Game 3 with only a 2-1 lead.

When “special” became “same old, same old,” Caps fans could recite the remaining script from memory.  Another loss in New York, followed by a win at home.  A chance to close out the series on the opponent’s rink, failing to do so when they can’t find the back of the net.  Then, another Game 7 on home ice.  Home ice advantage.  Yeah. 

Going into Game 7 at Verizon Center the Caps had played eight Game 7’s on home ice in team history.  Their record was 2-6, four of the losses coming by one goal, two of them in overtime.  At least Caps fans would be spared the suspense and heartache of a one-goal game or an overtime loss.  The Rangers scored first, tacked on two goals in the span of 130 seconds in the second period, then coasted in the third with another pair of goals to end the Caps’ season, 5-0. 

One could say that the series was lost when the Caps failed to find the back of the net on their last 66 shots on goal in the series, going back to the third period of Game 5.  We argue differently.  The Caps lost this series when they failed to stand on the throat of their opponent in Game 3.  Whether that was the product of a too-cavalier attitude, we cannot say.  What we can say though is that the Caps played this Game 3 like a lot of teams before them.  And when the results were the same as those teams before them, the final result was their destiny.  That is why this game mattered in the 2013 season.

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Rock the Mock! ...NHL draft, that is

We do not earn a living as a scout, a general manager, or a media analyst of the NHL.  This makes us uniquely qualified to spout utter gibberish about who will select whom in Sunday's NHL Entry Draft.  What follows is not science.  We merely combed the four corners of the hockey universe for mock drafts from media outlets, aggregated them, and came up with a "draft of drafts."  The only tweak we made to it was to take the Colorado Avalanche at its word that they would be drafting a forward with the first overall pick.  So, let's get to it...

For you Caps fans, the Kerby Rychel pick at 23 is an interesting result.  Once you get past the top four picks, players who have been cemented into the top-four for a year now, Rychel was the most consistent in terms of where he was slotted.  In all but one mock draft we looked at, he was slotted between 20th and 24th overall.

Of course, now that we've said that, we don't think Rychel will be a Cap because we do not think the Caps will stay at 23.

Call it a hunch.

Washington Capitals: The 2013 Season -- Ten (well...six) Games that Mattered: Jets at Capitals, April 23rd

We are almost at the end of our six-pack review of games that mattered in the 2013 season.  Game 5 – the last game that mattered in the regular season -- was about a bit of history and a time to turn the page…

April 23, 2013: Winnipeg (24-19-3) at Washington (25-18-2)

Result: Capitals 5 – Jets 3

The Background:  In 1998 the Washington Capitals reached the Stanley Cup finals as representatives of the Atlantic Division of the Eastern Conference.  When they returned to the ice for the 1998-1999 season after losing to the Detroit Red Wings in the 1998 final, they did so as a member of the new “Southeast Division.”  The NHL created two new divisions – one in each conference (the Northwest Division was the new entry in the West) – and realigned teams in the new six-division format to establish (one hoped) regional rivalries.

That inaugural season in the Southeast for the Caps was not kind.  The Caps lost 511 man-games to injury, dressed a total of 37 skaters and four goaltenders, and finished third in a four-team division race, out of the playoffs with a 31-45-6 record. 

Things did get better, at least in the division.  The Caps won the next two division titles and then, after a five-season drought, won four more division crowns in succession before finishing second to the Florida Panthers in 2011-2012.  Realignment was in the air, though.  When the Atlanta Thrashers moved to Winnipeg following the 2010-2011 season, the die was cast.  All that seemed left was to make realignment a reality. 

After fits and starts (the NHL Board of Governors actually approved a realignment plan in December 2011, but the players association rejected it a month later), the realignment plan finally fell into place to the satisfaction of the league and its players, finally approved in March 2013.  Whoever won the Southeast Division in 2012-2013 could put on its letterhead “Last and Forever Champion of the Southeast Division.”

Why it mattered:  Oh, yeah…the game.  By late April the Caps had climbed all the way back from their dismal 2-8-1 start.  With a record of 23-10-1 since that start, they were poised to clinch that last division title if they could get past the Winnipeg Jets, themselves hanging onto hope for a playoff spot by their fingernails.

Things looked good for the Capitals early.  It started with Matt Hendricks barely three minutes into the game.  And what an effort it was.  First, Hendricks was knocked to the ice at the Jets’ blue line by Chris Thorburn as he was dumping the puck to the corner.  He got up, pursued the puck to the corner where Jay Beagle and Ron Hainsey were battling over it.  Hendricks beat Antti Miettinen to the loose puck, circled out, took a couple of steps down the goal line, and shot the puck off the shoulder of goalie Ondrej Pavelec and in for the game’s first goal. 

The Caps were about to stick a fork in the Jets’ season late in the period.  Mathieu Perreault won a race to the puck below the Winnipeg goal line.  After working a give-and-go with Jason Chimera,  Perreault set up behind the Winnipeg net as Chimera went to the front of the cage.  With Winnipeg’s defense keeping their eyes on Perreault, he slid the puck in front to Chimera, who took two swipes at the puck, the first stopped by Pavelec, but not the second.  Chimera’s goal at 17:53 put the Jets behind the eight-ball at the first intermission, 2-0.

If the Caps stuck a fork in the Jets, they found that the roast was not quite done.  The Jets tied the game, first on a goal by Evander Kane just 16 seconds into the period, then again at 14:48 when Blake Wheeler one-timed a pass by Nik Antropov past goalie Braden Holtby from point blank range in the low slot.

Then it was Winnipeg’s turn to see momentum stolen away.  Just 37 seconds after tying the game, Nicklas Backstrom converted a centering feed from Alex Ovechkin, redirecting the pass past Pavelec to put the Caps back in front with 5:02 left in the period.  Less than three minutes later the Caps’ two-goal lead was restored.  Mathieu Perreault started and finished the scoring play. He started it by leaving the puck for Eric Fehr as he was crossing the Winnipeg blue line.  Fehr could not control the puck though, his stick lifted by Alexander Burmistrov before he could get control.  Jack Hillen jumped up, though, and ripped a shot toward the Jet’s net.  Pavelec stopped the shot, but just outside a clot of bodies fighting for the loose puck,  Perreault, dug it out and flipped it into the net to make it 4-2.

The Jets would not go away, though.  Nik Antropov cut the lead to one when he scored mid-way through the third period to make things uncomfortable for the Caps.  That would be as close as the Jets would get, though.  Alex Ovechkin put an exclamation point on the win with an empty net goal with 28.3 seconds left, the Caps skating off with a division-clinching 5-3 victory.

The Takeaway:  Eleven games into the season Caps fans were ready to start wondering, “Seth Jones or Nathan MacKinnon?”  In Game 46 of the season they were now pondering first-round playoff matchups. It was quite a comeback by the Caps, but perhaps possible only in a division in which three teams finished 13^th, 14^th, and 15^th in the conference.  The Caps would be the primary beneficiary of those struggles among Southeast Division teams, going 15-3-0 in the division for the season.

In the end…

The Caps would win their seventh Southeast Division title in 14 seasons, their fifth crown in six years.  Over the 14-season history of the division the Caps would compile a 185-100-42-2 intra-divisional record.  That works out to an average of 103 standings points per 82 games.  They were the class of the division, winning at least ten games against division rivals in 12 of those 14 seasons.  In 2013 they would enter the post-season as the number-three seed in the Eastern Conference.  But behind the banner as division champion was the dark cloud.  In those 14 seasons representing the Southeast Division, the Caps reached the playoffs nine times, never moving past the second round in any of them and being eliminated in the first round six times. That, however, was a concern for another day.  On this night in late April the Caps returned to the place they occupied more frequently than any other team in the history of the Southeast Division.  It was a place few thought the Caps would occupy when they were struggling in January and February.  That is why this game mattered in the 2013 season.

Photo: Getty Images

Washington Capitals: The 2013 Season -- Ten (well...six) Games that Mattered: Capitals at Hurricanes, April 2nd

The fourth game in the six-pack of games that mattered in the 2013 season of the Washington Capitals was one that the Caps had been inching toward for quite some time, one that would get them to a milestone that represented their base camp for a final assault on a playoff spot…

April 2, 2013: Washington (16-17-2) at Carolina (16-16-2)

Result: Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 3

The Background:  When the Washington Capitals took to the road to take on the Carolina Hurricanes on April 2^nd, the Caps and the Hurricanes were sitting outside the playoff eligible top-eight in the Eastern Conference, tied for tenth in the conference in points.  With the season almost down to its last dozen games, the loser of this game would have the chore of trying to make up points and having to climb over three teams to make the playoffs.

For Washington there was a special incentive in this game.  At no point in the 35 games they played to this date did the Capitals have so much as a .500 record.  Oh, they had their chances… Game 2, to get to 1-1 (they lost in their home opener to Winnipeg); Game 23, to get to 11-11-1 (they lost at the New York Islanders); Game 33, to get to 16-16-1 (they lost to the Islanders again); and Game 35 to get to 17-17-1 (they lost to Philadelphia in overtime). 

Why it mattered:  This was Washington’s fifth try to get to .500 for the season, and they were 0-3-1 in their previous four attempts.  It was perhaps their best chance to do so.  Carolina came into this game having lost eight of nine games (1-7-1).

Carolina looked to bust out of their slump early in this contest.  Jiri Tlusty backhanded a loose puck past goalie Braden Holtby at the 11:32 mark of the period with three Caps within arm’s length of Tlusty looking at the ice for the puck.  Tlusty doubled the Carolina lead less than three minutes later on a power play, taking a feed from Marc-Andre Bergeron and finding a hole with a wrister past Holtby. 

However, teams in slumps get into slumps for a reason, and one of them is giving away the momentum they generate with early goals.  That was the case late in the period when Alex Ovechkin halved the lead with just 39 seconds left when he took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom just inside the Carolina blue line and wristed the puck just inside the far post past goalie Dan Ellis’ blocker.

Another reason teams get into slumps and stay there is giving up goals early in periods, and that is just what Carolina did in the second period.  Mike Green lit the lamp just 42 seconds into the period when he banged a slap shot off the post to Ellis’ right and in on a power play to tie the game at two apiece. 

Tlusty restored the Hurricanes’ lead by completing the hat trick just 70 seconds after the Green goal on a power play, but that would complete the fun portion of the evening for the Hurricanes.  Green tied things up at 4:26 when Nicklas Backstrom left him the puck and pushed the defense back by going to the net.  Green jumped into the void and snapped the puck over Ellis’ blocker to tie the game once more at three apiece.  That goal would end Ellis’ night in favor of Justin Peters.

Peters fared no better.  At 11:06 Alex Ovechkin got his second goal of the game on a play that started with a Carolina turnover.  Defenseman Joni Pitkanen tried to move the puck up the left wing wall, but the pass struck Ovechkin in front of the players bench and skittered to the middle of the ice. Backstrom picked up the puck there and headed into the Carolina zone accompanied by Ovechkin on a 2-on-1 break.  Backstrom laid the puck across onto the tape of Ovechkin’s stick and it was just a snap shot from there over Peters’ glove, and the Caps had the lead. 

Carolina compounded their problem by allowing the Caps a shorthanded goal with under a minute to play in the second period.  It was another turnover, this one occurring when Marc-Andre Bergeron crossed the Caps’ blue line and tried to feed the puck to Eric Staal at the right wing wall.  The pass was behind Staal, and when the loose puck caromed off the wall, Marcus Johansson was first to it. He and Joel Ward headed out on another 2-on-1 for the Caps and when Joe Corvo tried to defend Johansson, it was Johansson feeding the puck across to Ward for the one-timer and a 5-3 lead for the Caps.  Oddly enough it would be the only goal on which Nicklas Backstrom did not record an assist.  His four-assist game was the seventh time he turned the trick, the first time since getting four helpers in a 6-3 win over Tampa Bay on Veterans Day, 2010.

From there the Caps turned it over to Braden Holtby, who stopped all ten shots he faced in the third period, and the Caps had a 5-3 win plus a .500 record for the first time in the 2013 season.

The Takeaway: It was the start of quite a finishing kick for the Caps.  Starting with this first game of April, Washington went 11-1-1 for the month to close the regular season.  And they did it with their big guns firing.  In this game, Ovechkin went 2-1-3, Backstrom went 0-4-4, and Green went 2-0-2.  It started a month in which Ovechkin would go 14-8-22 in 13 games, Backstrom would go 2-15-17in 13 games, and Green would go 7-8-15 in 13 games.  Needless to say, that .500 mark was in the rear-view mirror pretty quickly.

In the end…

This win would be the first in what became an eight-game winning streak for the Caps.  That would make it six consecutive seasons in which Washington enjoyed a winning streak of at least seven games.  Considering it took the Caps 20 games to accumulate a total of eight wins at the start of the season, they had come a long way.  For Carolina, it was another stop on their descent into oblivion.  They would go 3-10-2 for the month, wrapping up a ghastly second half of the season.  After having gone 15-9-1 in their first 25 games, the Hurricanes finished 4-16-3 in their last 23 contests, largely the result of a series of injuries to critical players.  What that meant for the Caps was that one rival was dropping out of the race for the Southeast Division title, leaving only Winnipeg ahead of them in the stretch run.  That was what made this game, one in which the Caps passed the Hurricanes for good and reached .500 in the process, a game that mattered in the 2013 season.

Photo: Chris Seward/News Observer