Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Dmitrij Jaskin

Dmitrij Jaskin

“Let us, then, be up and doing, with a heart for any fate; still achieving, still pursuing, learn to labor and to wait.”

-- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Once upon a time, Dmitrij Jaskin was a second round draft pick, picked by the St. Louis Blues ahead of Victor Rask, ahead of William Karlsson, ahead of Nikita Kucherov.  Yes, taken ahead of Nikita Kucherov.  Jaskin was the 41^st overall pick of the 2011 draft (Kucherov was taken with the 58^th pick for those of you keeping score).  It might have been the high point of his NHL career. 

Jaskin got his first NHL action with a pair of games in the 2012-2013 season with the Blues and had a 13-goal season in St. Louis two seasons later.  But that 13-goal season Jaskin had in 2014-2015 was the outlier.  In his other five seasons with the Blues he totaled 12 goals in 212 games, and by the time he wrapped up his sixth NHL season with the Blues in 2017-2018 he had yet to record a 20-point season.  The Blues ran out of patience and waived Jaskin on the eve of the 2018-2019 regular season.  The Caps claimed him on October 2^nd.

Jaskin was in the lineup for 25 of the Caps’ first 31 games, going 1-6-7, plus-1, but his opportunities to skate dried up thereafter.  He was in the lineup only 11 times over the next 28 games, and after February 17^th was absent from the lineup entirely until getting a sweater for the regular season finale against the New York Islanders.  He finished the season with what one might think of as a “half share.”  His 37 games played were roughly half of what he had in St. Louis in 2017-2018 (76 games), his scoring line (2-6-8) was about half of that the previous season (6-11-17), and his penalty minute total (six) was in that 50 percent neighborhood compared to last season as well (14).

Fearless’ Take… When he earned a sweater on a regular basis early in the season, over those 25 games he played in the Caps’ first 31 contests, the team was 16-7-2.

Cheerless’ Take…  Jaskin, whether by coincidence or by being a player lacking added value, did not contribute a lot to the Caps’ success overall.  Even with the successful start, the team went just 19-14-4 in the 37 games in which he played overall, although they were 9-5-1 in the 15 games in which he skated at least 11 minutes.

Odd Jaskin Fact… Of 391 forwards recording at least 45 shots on goal this season, only nine had a worse shooting percentage than Jaskin (4.2 percent on 2-for-48 shooting).

Game to Remember… December 8^th at Columbus

It was a frustrating start to the season personally for Jaskin.  He did not record a goal in his first 22 games with the Caps, and in the one multi-point game he had, a two-assist effort against Anaheim on December 2^nd, the Caps lost, allowing the Ducks five unanswered goals in the last 26 minutes in a 6-5 loss.  Some of that frustration melted away when the Caps visited Columbus as the last stop on a three-game road trip.  After Brett Connolly staked the Caps to an early lead less than two minutes into the game, the Blue Jackets tried to clear the puck around the wall and out of their own end.  Dmitry Orlov kept the puck inside the blue line, where it found its way to the stick of Travis Boyd.  Circling through the high slot, Boyd wrong-footed a shot at the Columbus net, but before reaching goalie Sergei Bobarovsky, it caromed off the left skate boot of Jaskin and through Bobrovsky to give the Caps a 2-0 lead and make Jaskin just about the happiest guy on the planet.   The Caps went on to beat Columbus, 4-0, earning a second win on their three-game road trip. 

Game to Forget… February 17^th at Anaheim

By mid-February, Jaskin’s presence in the lineup became infrequent, and when he was on the ice he was not especially effective.  In 11 games from December 14^th through February 14^th, he was 1-0-1, minus-3 in 11 games, averaging 10:23 in ice time per game.  With the Caps looking to go 2-for-2 on their three-game California road trip, Jaskin was in the lineup against the Anaheim Ducks.  It was forgettable in its sameness with his performance leading up to that game.  Jaskin skated 11 minutes, did not record a shot on goal (two shot attempts), and took a third period penalty that led to an insurance power play goal by Corey Perry in what would be a 5-2 Ducks win.  It was the last meaningful game in which Jaskin would play, not getting another crack at the lineup until the season finale, by which time the Caps had clinched their division title and postseason seeding, giving them the chance to rest other players.

Postseason… Jaskin did not skate in the postseason.

Looking ahead…

Dmitrij Jaskin was on a one-year/$1.1 million deal, signed by the Blues last July.  He goes into this off-season as a restricted free agent.  Unless the Caps are shut out in re-signing other forwards on expiring contracts, it is difficult to see where Jaskin fits with the club going forward.

In the end…

For a player drafted with the promise Dmitrij Jaskin had, especially when one considers who was passed over in his favor, it is frustrating to see how his career unfolded.  Of course, had it developed as hoped, this piece would not have been written, and Jaskin would still be skating for the Blues.  He will not turn 27 years old until next March, so there is always the hope that he will be a late bloomer as he enters the chronological prime of his career.  But it seems almost certain that if that is to be in the NHL, it will be with a new team.

Grade: C-

Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Carl Hagelin

Carl Hagelin

“The head learns new things, but the heart forever practices old experiences.”

-- Henry Ward Beecher

Moving services had quite a customer in forward Carl Hagelin over the past six months.  Last November, he was traded from the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Los Angeles Kings for forward Tanner Pearson.  After a three-month stay on the left coast, Hagelin was shipped back east, traded by the Kings to the Washington Capitals for a 2019 third round draft pick and a 2020 sixth round draft pick.

In Hagelin, the Caps were getting a player with more than 500 regular season games of experience over eight seasons with four teams, having twice won Stanley Cups, both with Pittsburgh in 2016 and 2017.  It was good to have Hagelin in a red sweater for other reasons, most notably that he was 4-6-10 in 29 career regular season games against the Caps and was 6-9-15 in 35 postseason games against the Caps, playing on the winning side in five of six series in which he played against Washington.

His presence, whether as a contributor or merely coincidental, agreed with the Caps.  In the 20 games for which he dressed, Washington was 14-5-1, and they were 8-0-1 in those games in which he recorded a point. The three goals, eight assists, and 11 points Hagelin recorded for the Caps in 20 games was more than he recorded in each category as he did in almost twice as many games (38) in his previous two stops this season: Pittsburgh (1-2-3 in 16 games) and Los Angeles (1-4-5 in 22 games).

Fearless’ Take… Hagelin’s presence might have been most felt in penalty killing.  Before his arrival, the Caps were 162-for-206, a 78.6 percent kill rate.  After his arrival, the Caps were 44-for-55, an 80.0 percent kill rate.  However, that improved with time.  For instance, after March 1^st, the Caps had an 82.6 percent penalty kill, which included an ugly 0-for-3 performance against Tampa Bay in late March.  It was perhaps no coincidence that Hegelin led the team’s forwards in shorthanded ice time after his arrival (2:21).

Cheerless’ Take…  Hagelin was not so much a problem as much as he reflected one.  Having to go out and get a player who brought more speed and better defense, particularly on the penalty kill, reflected the lack of skills among the club and that might have departed with Jay Beagle after last season (ok, not the speed part).  Chandler Stephenson was largely pushed to the press box (10 games played of the 21 the Caps played after Hagelin’s arrival), and Dmitrij Jaskin almost needed to buy a ticket to get into the arena (one game played, that being the regular season finale when many players were held out).

Odd Hagelin Fact… 2019 was the first time in eight trips to the postseason that Hagelin’s team did not advance to the second round.

Game to Remember… March 3rd at New York Rangers

Upon joining the Capitals in late February, Carl Hagelin did not record a point in four games, one of them against a former club, the New York Rangers.  Hagelin got a second bite at that apple, so to speak, when the Caps visited Madison Square Garden in early March.  Washington entered the contest on a three-game winning streak, while the Rangers were on a three-game losing streak (0-1-2).  It would be the Rangers who got out to a quick lead, though, Ryan Strome beating goalie Braden Holtby off a Caps turnover just 45 seconds into the game. 

The lead lasted barely a minute.  Lars Eller sent a pass in deep to Hagelin in the right wing corner to the left of Ranger goalie Alexander Georgiev.  Hagelin collected the puck, spun, and skated low through the faceoff circle.  He tried a pass through the crease to Brooks Orpik pinching in from the left.  The pass was blocked by defenseman Libor Hajek, but the puck found its way right back to Hagelin’s stick.  This time, Hagelin snapped the puck behind Georgiev, who could not get back to the near post in time from defending against the shot from Orpik that never came.  Hagelin had his first goal – first point – as a Capital, 2:05 into the first period to tie the game.  The teams exchanged goals once more and forced overtime in a 2-2 game.  The five minute extra frame did nothing to settle things, but the Caps would emerge with the victory on a fourth-round goal by Alex Ovechkin. Hagelin skated 16:33, including a team-leading 1:55 in penalty killing ice time (the Rangers failed on two power plays), and won the third star in the Caps’ 3-2 win.

Game to Forget… February 23rd at Buffalo

Carl Hagelin went from facing the Caps, skating for the Los Angeles Kings against Washington in a 3-2 Caps win on February 18^th, to skating for them on February 23^rd in Buffalo in his first game as a Capital.  His presence did not provide an immediate spark.  Buffalo scored early, a Jason Pominville goal 3:40 into the game, scored again before the first period was over (Hagelin was on the ice for that one), and then won going away with a pair of third period goals after the Caps closed the deficit to one goal.  For the second straight game, Hagelin found himself on the wrong side of the win-loss ledger in a contest involving the Caps.  In 12:33 of ice time in his Caps debut, he was on ice for a goal, finishing minus-1, took a penalty, and had two giveaways.  The silver lining here was that Hagelin and the Caps would follow up this loss with a seven-game winning streak.

Postseason… Hagelin was part of a group that, even with names changing over the years, has been something of a sore spot in the postseason for the Caps – the bottom six forwards.  He had one assist in seven games, but that point was still more than seven other forwards among the 14 who dressed for the Caps against Carolina in the first round.  He recorded no goals on 13 shots in the seven games and remains one of only 18 forwards failing to record at least one goal on at least ten shot in the postseason.  Hagelin went without a goal in the postseason for the first time since he was blanked in 17 games in his first trip to the postseason, that with the Rangers in 2012.

Looking ahead…

Carl Hagelin is at the end of a four-year/$16 million deal he signed with Anaheim (three teams ago) in August 2015.  He will be 31 years old on Opening Night of the 2019-2020 season, suggesting that this could be his last big payday in the NHL.  The club would appear to want Hagelin back, and the player would appear to want to return, but making the numbers work, both dollars and term, given the other personnel issues that the Caps have this postseason and possibly next is going to be a challenge.  

In the end…

The addition of Carl Hagelin addressed a couple of issues that the Caps struggled with over stretches this season – matching up against teams with speed and penalty killing.  While his addition did address those issues with success in the stretch run of the regular season, his presence was less influential in the first-round loss to Carolina in the postseason.  It might have been enough of a tease to wonder what Hagelin’s effects might be with the club with a full season or more under a new contract.  Whether the club and player can come to an agreement will be one of the story lines to watch in the offseason.

Grade: B

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Lars Eller

Lars Eller

“Forward, as occasion offers. Never look round to see whether any shall note it... Be satisfied with success in even the smallest matter, and think that even such a result is no trifle.”

-- Marcus Aurelius

It might be said of Washington Capitals center Lars Eller that he likes certain odd numbers.  There is, of course, the number “1,” as in “number of career Cup-clinching goals,” he being the player who broke a third period tie in Game 5 of the 2018 Stanley Cup final to secure that club’s first and only (to date) Stanley Cup.  But then there is the strange thing Eller has with games played.  Three times in his career he dressed for exactly 77 games (2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015). Twice he dressed for exactly 79 games (2011-2012 and 2015-2016).  This year, Eller completed his third consecutive year having played in exactly 81 games.  No player in NHL history has played in precisely that many games in more consecutive seasons. 

This season was consistent in other respects for Eller.  Once more he was a mid-30’s point producer (38 last season, 36 this season), almost unchanged in penalty minutes (38 last season, 37 this season), almost unchanged in even strength assists (17 last year, 18 this year), nearly the same in shots on goal (161 last season, 163 this season), and almost the same faceoff winning percentage (49.2 percent last season, 49.0 percent this season).

Eller’s ten-game segments were not quite as consistent, but it was not a roller coaster, either.  He did not post fewer than three points in any segment, but it was a case of starting (11 points in first two segments) and finishing (12 in his las two segments) strong.  His shots on goal followed a reasonably consistent pattern.  There were two areas in which he showed considerable improvement from the season’s start to finish.  Eller was minus-14 through the first five segments of the season, but he finished with a plus-13 over the last three segments.  He logged 25 penalty minutes – about two thirds of his season total – in the first three segments, but he recorded only six penalty minutes in his last three segments.

Fearless’ Take… Eller has established himself in only three seasons as one of the most productive centers for the franchise since the 2005-20065 season.  Among players playing primarily the center position (not including such as Marcus Johansson or Brooks Laich, who played a significant amount of time on the wing), Eller is fourth in games played (243), third in goals scored (43, trailing Nicklas Backstrom (231) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (101)), fourth in assists (56), and third in points (99).  One piece that was consistently coming up short for the Caps in their annual postseason disappointments was solid and consistent play out of their depth centers.  Eller has provided that.

Cheerless’ Take… A center does not have to be a big goal scorer, but his overall points contributions can be an important ingredient for success.  Eller appeared in 81 games this season and did not record a point in 54 of them.  That is tied for ninth-most among Capital centers since 2005-2006 (tied for seventh if you think of Brooks Laich more as a winger).  In fact, Eller has two of the top nine (or seven) such seasons in that span.   Given that the Caps were 18-4-5 in the games in which he did record a point, those contributions were important.  In a perverse way, perhaps, it documents his value to the club and what they missed when they did not have a player such as Eller anchoring the third line.

Odd Eller Fact… In his three seasons as a Capital, Eller is plus-25 on home ice (fifth among Capital forwards) and minus-17 (second-worst among forwards) on the road.

Game to Remember… November 19^th at Montreal

When a player logs more than 450 regular and postseason games with a club and moves on to another city, facing his old team is an occasion.  Such was the case for Lars Eller when the Caps visited the Montreal Canadiens in November.  The Caps were struggling with a 9-7-3 start to the season, only once having won consecutive games.  Having beaten the Colorado Avalanche in Denver in their previous outing, the Caps had a chance to win consecutive games for the second time this season and first time on the road.

Montreal broke on top on a Mike Reilly goal 9:20 into the first period, but the Caps took the lead to the locker room at the first intermission on goals by Brett Connolly and Alex Ovechkin.  The Habs scored three times in the first 95 seconds of the second period to take a 4-2 lead to chase goalie Pheonix Copley to the bench in favor of Braden Holtby. Nicklas Backstrom got one back before the end of the second period to make a game of it. 

Ovechkin scored 62 seconds into the third period to tie the game, but neither team could break the deadlock thereafter.  The game went to overtime where Montreal had a bit of an advantage early on with three shots in the first three minutes of the extra session.   But the Caps counterpunched with Jakub Vrana skating down the right side with defenseman Michal Kempny in the middle and Eller on the left side.  Pulling up at the top of the right wing circle, Vrana found Eller with a cross ice pass.  Eller stepped up to the top of the left wing circle and wristed a shot between goalie Carey Price’s right arm and his body to give the Caps a come-from-behind 5-4 overtime win.  It was Eller’s only game-winning goal of the season.

Game to Forget… October 11^th at New Jersey

The Caps opened their defense of their Stanley Cup championship with a pair of home-road, back-to-back sets of games.  They beat Boston in the Stanley Cup banner raising at Capital One Arena, 7-0, before dropping a 7-6 overtime decision in Pittsburgh the following night.  The Caps then beat Vegas in a rematch of Stanley Cup finalists, 5-2, before heading to New Jersey to face the Devils.  The Caps fell into a 2-0 hole in the first period, allowed a goal in the third minute of the second period, and then the Devils pulled away with three goals in the third period in a 6-0 win.  Eller had as forgettable a game as any Capital.  He skated just 11:52, his lowest ice time of the season in which he skated an entire game (he logged six minutes and change in a February 1^st game against Calgary in which he sustained a lower body injury), was on ice for three goals against in posting a minus-3 rating, took a penalty, had three giveaways, won just two of eight faceoffs.  

Postseason… It would be hard to top last year’s postseason, Eller being the only player in Caps history to score a Stanley Cup clinching goal.  Still, Eller did have a goal and two assists in seven games.  The odd part of his scoring was that two of the points (both of them assists) came on the road and in what would be losses.  And his goal, scored in Game 1 of the first round series against Carolina, was an empty netter in a 4-2 win.  But what was perhaps the strangest number of all was his on-ice shot attempt percentages at 5-on-5.  In what was generally a difficult series in this category for the Caps, Eller was under 40 percent for the series (39.22 percent).  There were times when Eller looked like the player he was in last year’s postseason, but the instances were not as frequent, something that can be said of the Caps generally.

Looking ahead…

Eller just completed the first year of a five-year deal that carries a $3.5 million annual cap hit and keeps him in the fold through the 2022-2023 season.  Eller has been an extraordinarily durable player.  In his nine full seasons, he has missed a total of 25 games and never missed more than five in any season.  He posted his second consecutive 35-plus point season in 2018-2019, a first for him.  Given his consistency and durability, it would be reasonable to pencil him in for a mid-teens goal total, mid-30’s point total, and a being a solid lineup fixture.

In the end…

Lars Eller, the hero of Game 5 of the 2018 Stanley Cup final, author of the game-winning, series-clinching, Cup-seizing goal, has found success as a Capital as a solid, consistent anchor on its third line of forwards.  While he can, and does play on other lines as needs arise, he is one player whose role and performance of it is something to be counted on, game in and game out, giving the club the chance to address other areas not quite as solid or consistent.  It is not the sexiest of roles, but the Caps missed it dearly when there was no one to fill it adequately.  That measure of success is no trifle for this club.

Grade: B

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

“Far and away the best prize that life has to offer is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.”

-- Theodore Roosevelt

When Nic Dowd signed a one-year/$650,000 contract last July 1^st, he was joining his third team in seven months, having been traded from the Los Angeles Kings to the Vancouver Canucks the previous December.  He was also replacing, if not a legend, then one of the more loved players in team history in Jay Beagle, who himself was moving on to Vancouver as a free agent.  That is a lot of stuff to deal with, even for a professional sports athlete.  But it was a chance to join a contender coming off a Stanley Cup championship, a chance that only some players get to experience.

His season was equal parts predictable for a bottom six-forward and successful.  The predictable part was that he put up modest numbers.  He did establish a new career high in goals (eight) and tied his career high in points (22), both considerable improvements over his 2017-2018 season split between Los Angeles and Vancouver (3-1-4, minus-10), but he did it in 64 games, his season interrupted in parts with scratches for a game here, a couple of games there.

As one might expect, Dowd illustrated the benefits of secondary scoring.  The Caps were 7-1-0 in the eight games in which he scored a goal, 16-2-1 in games in which he recorded a point.  Even without scoring, engagement in the offensive end mattered, the Caps going 11-1-0 in games in which Dowd recorded at least two shots on goal.  His time on ice reflected the benefits of being able to roll a full four lines.  Washington was 21-7-0 in 28 games in which Dowd skated at least 10:44, 18-12-6 in the 36 games he played and skated less time.  Those wins and losses by ice time were roughly similar to those of the player he replaced – Jay Beagle – who skated more than 13 minutes 33 times last season, the Caps with a 25-5-3 record in those games, while the Caps were 22-20-4 in games in which Beagle skated less than 13 minutes.

Fearless’ Take… Even with the intermittent scratches and absences, Dowd seemed to settle into his role and reach a comfort level as the season wore on.  While he did play all ten games of his first ten-game segment, he played in only six of the next ten.  He played in six of ten games in his fifth segment, five of ten in his sixth segment.  It made for a performance progression by segments that was all over the place.  He did dress for 20 of 22 games in his last two segments and went 3-4-7, plus 5, not bad production given his role.

Cheerless’ Take… The Caps relied on fourth line minutes less this season than last, and that can be seen in the even strength ice time per game of Dowd (8:38) versus Beagle’s last season (9:54).  Beagle also averaged about a minute more in penalty killing time per game (2:31) than did Dowd (1:39).  Beagle also averaged more than four more shifts per game (18.0) than did Dowd (13.5), although Dowd’s average time per shift (0:46) was higher than Beagle’s (0:42).

Odd Dowd Fact… Nic Dowd, born in Huntsville, Alabama,  has played more NHL games combined than all the other players born in Alabama have played in the NHL.  OK, it is 195 games, and there are only two other Alabama natives to dress in the NHL – Jared Ross (13 games) and Aud Tuten (39 games).

Game to Remember… December 14^th at Carolina

As November ended and December began, Nic Dowd found himself on a hot streak.  In nine games from November 23^rd through December 11^th, he was 3-4-7, plus-5, and the Caps were the beneficiaries, going 7-2-0 in that stretch.  The game in Carolina would be a challenge, though, and the Hurricanes put the Caps in a hole early with a Sebastian Aho goal just 47 seconds into the game.  The Caps tied it three minutes later on an Alex Ovechkin goal, Dowd providing the secondary assist.  However, Carolina would score three goals over the next 23 minutes to take a 4-1 lead in the second period.

The Caps got one back on a Tom Wilson goal 12 minutes into the period, and late in the period the Caps tied the game on goals by Ovechkin and Travis Boyd, Dowd providing assists on both.  The Caps and Hurricanes exchanged power play goals in the third period before skating a scoreless overtime.  The trick shot competition went six rounds before Jakub Vrana won it for the Caps, 6-5.  For Dowd, it was a three-assist night, the first three-point night of his career.

Game to Forget… December 19^th vs. Pittsburgh

The Caps carried a five-game winning streak into their match-up with the Penguins on December 19^th.  The teams had already played twice, splitting a pair of one-goal decisions, Pittsburgh’s win coming in overtime.  All of the scoring came in the second period of the contest, the Caps opening with a Lars Eller goal and the Pens tying and taking a lead on goals by Sidney Crosby and Brian Rust.  It was a period in which Dowd skated only two shifts and 1:05 in ice time.  As the Caps looked for the equalizer in the third period, Dowd got barely more ice exposure, skating three shifts and 2:13 in ice time, none of it in the last eight minutes.  The Caps did not get that game-tying goal, dropping a 2-1 decision and ending their winning streak at five games.  Dowd’s night was brief and uneventful.  In nine shifts (a team low), he skated 6:49 (only 5:15 of it at even strength) with one shot attempt (a missed shot) and three faceoffs.

Looking ahead…

Nic Dowd signed a three-year extension that carries a $750,000 annual cap hit that will begin running next season.  That signing ensures that the Caps, barring any other personnel moves, will be set down the middle on all four lines for the 2019-2020 season.  For Dowd it is the sort of contract stability he had not known in his brief career, having signed mostly one-year deals (the exception, a two-year deal with Los Angeles that expired before he signed his one year contract with the Caps last summer).  Dowd presents a bit of an odd profile.  Although he turns 29 years old later this month, he has fewer than 200 games of regular season experience on his resume over four NHL seasons.  He is a typical fourth liner – 10-12 minutes of ice time per game, 20 point or so ceiling, decent on faceoffs (51.9 percent this season with the Caps), can kill penalties (1:39 per game), can make use of grittership skills (fourth among Capital forwards in hits, fifth in blocked shots, positive takeaway-to-giveaway ratio).  He is not, nor is he expected to be a difference-maker, but he can be the sort of player that provides some glue among the bottom six forwards to keep that area from being a headache.

In the end…

Nic Dowd might be a late bloomer.  A seventh round draft pick (198^th overall in 2009 and the lowest pick of that draft to appear in more than two games), he did not get into his first NHL action until he was two months shy of his 26th birthday.  But he has topped 20 points in two of his last three seasons, the exception being the year (2017-2018) he split between Los Angeles and Vancouver.  One thing that stands out in his season with the Caps is filling the role of a player who plays simply, keeps things honest, and is not a liability in the defensive end.  That is the player the Caps had in 2018-2019 and hope they have for three years to come.

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“Luck is not chance, it's toil; fortune's expensive smile is earned.”

-- Emily Dickinson

If you are going to have a career year, it is best to have it in the last year of a contract before embarking on free agency.  It worked for Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson last season, when he parlayed a career year into an eight-year/$64 million contract.  While he will not earn quite the payday that Carlson earned last summer, Brett Connolly is poised to see the career year he had in 2018-2019 be converted into a handsome contract of his own.

It did not start out that way as Connolly started his eighth NHL season.  Coming off consecutive 15-goal seasons with the Capitals, both career highs for him, he played through his first five ten-game segments – 50 games played – with nine goals, another 15-goal pace.  He ramped up his production in a big way over his last three segments, though.  Connolly wrapped up the season with 13 goals in his last 31 games over those segments, a 34-goals per 82 games pace.

It was a career year for Connolly in goals (22), assists (24), and points (46), but it was a career year in other respects, too.  He dressed for 81 games, topping his previous high of 71 games with Boston in 2015-2016. His five game-winning goals were a career best, surpassing the three he had in his first year with the Caps in 2016-2017.  He also displayed a new-found assertiveness reflected in his shot total.  The 139 shots on goal he posted was not only a career best, it was the first time he topped 100 shots for a season, and his 1.72 shots per game was more than one-third more than his career average before this season (1.28).

Fearless’ Take… That Brett Connolly topped the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career is not the odd part of his season, but perhaps that he took as long as he did to get there.  This is a player who recorded 86 goals in 144 games in junior hockey, nine goals in 23 games in international tournament play, and 52 goals in 137 games in the AHL.  But there was an odd consistency in his early career.  In 201 games covering seven seasons with Tampa Bay and Boston, Connolly had 39 goals – a 15-goals per 82 games pace.  He scored precisely 15 goals in each of his first two seasons in Washington, but at a somewhat higher pace (18 goals per 82 games).  That he should make the leap to 22 goals might seem like a lot, but it appears more of a progression than a quantum leap when looked at in terms of goals per game.  That suggests that this season is not an aberration, but the maturity of a goal scorer who had a well-defined role and a career high in games played (81) to play it.

Cheerless’ Take… A strange thing about Connolly’s season was his ice time.  He skated more than 15 minutes 16 times in 81 games, but the Caps had only an 8-6-2 record in those games (he had four goals in those games).  He also skated less than 11:30 in 16 games, and the Caps had an 11-2-3 record in those games (he also had four goals in those games).   

Odd Connolly Fact… Brett Connolly had eight games this season in which he recorded a goal on his only shot on goal.  Only Dallas’ Cody Eakin had more such instances (nine).  In his three seasons as a Capital, no player in the league has had more one-shot/one-goal games than Connolly (24).  J.T. Miller is second with 16 such games.  And, those games have been good indicators of success, the Caps posting a 19-2-3 record in those 24 games.

Game to Remember… March 14^th at Philadelphia

When the Caps opened their next to last road trip of the season, they were packing a seven-game winning streak into their baggage.  However, they dropped a 5-3 decision in Pittsburgh to the Penguins to open their trip in what was a frustrating night for Connolly – no points and four shots on goal in just over 13 minutes of ice time.  A trip to Philadelphia two nights later would normally seem like a stiff test after such a loss, but the Caps had already taken two decisions from the Flyers this season.  In their second and final trip to Philadelphia this season, Connolly got the Caps on the right side of things early.  After an attempted keep-in by John Carlson of a fluttering puck dribbled to Michal Kempny just inside the blue line, Kempny sent a slap pass to Connolly just off the post to the right of goalie Carter Hart.  Connolly settled the puck and whipped it past the right skate of Hart to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 2:52 into the contest. 

The Caps took a 2-0 lead before the first intermission on a Lars Eller goal, Connolly recording the primary assist, but the Flyers halved the deficit barely a minute into the second period on a James van Riemsdyk goal.  Connolly restored the two-goal lead mid-way through the frame when he stripped Travis Sanheim of the puck at the Caps’ blue line, skated down the left wing accompanied by Carl Hagelin on his right.  As he got to the left wing circle he ripped a shot that sailed past Hart’s glove on the far side to make it 3-1 at the 8:43 mark.  It would be the game-winning goal in the Caps’ 5-2 win, his fourth of five game-winning goals this season, and his second three-point game of the year.

Game to Forget… January 23^rd at Toronto

Trips to Toronto are occasions for great anticipation by players.  And Toronto has become a difficult place for visitors with the Maple Leafs’ improvements over the last several years.  Compounding the problem for the Caps was that they would be playing the back half of a back-to-back set of games and doing so against a supercharged offense in the Maple Leafs.  The Caps got out to a lead late in the first period on a Nicklas Backstrom goal but surrendered the lead with less than a minute in the period.  Washington grabbed the lead again early in the second on a goal by Alex Ovechkin, but there the game took a turn.  Toronto scored four straight goals on their way to a 6-3 win.  It was a forgettable night for Connolly, who did not record a point, managed a single shot on goal, two shot attempts, and had a takeaway for his 12:44 in ice time.  He also finished minus-3 for the evening, his worst plus-minus rating of the season and only the second time as a Capital that he finished minus-3 (February 17, 2018 at Chicago in a 7-1 loss).

Postseason… Like his teammates, Connolly’s postseason breaks into home and road pieces, but perhaps not quite as cleanly as some of those teammates.  In four home games he was 1-0-1, plus-1, with seven shots on goal.  In three road games, Connolly was 1-0-1, minus-3, with two shots on goal.  His nine shots in seven games made his 2018 performance on the way to a Stanley Cup look like the outlier.  He had 32 shots in 24 games last spring (six goals), which was quite different from this spring’s effort and that of his first career trip to the postseason, with the Caps in 2017, when he managed only six shots on goal in seven games without recording a goal.

Looking ahead…

Brett Connolly is in an enviable place.  And then again, he is not.  The enviable part is that he had a career season as he enters his prime performance and earning years (he will turn 27 years of age on May 2^nd).  His current two-year/$3.0 million contract is expiring, and he will be due a big raise.  Looking at comparable right wings at capfriendly.com (24-30 years of age, 15-25 goals, 40-50 points this season), it would seem unlikely he would command the same money as Brandon Saad ($6.0 million cap hit) or even Tom Wilson ($5.167 million cap hit), but a contract at or north of $4.0 million per year hardly seems out of the question for a 27-year old right wing who can post 20-25 goals and has a Stanley Cup on his resume.

Where one does not envy Connolly is in facing the difficult decision between maximizing his earning potential and staying in a town and a team with which he fits, even if that team almost certainly cannot afford what other teams could offer.  Players dream about being in a position to use a career year to make a leap in earnings. Last year it worked for John Carlson and the Capitals, and made fans happy when he inked a long-term extension with the club.  Given all the decisions the Caps have to make about players this year and next,  it might be a bit too much to expect them to go two-for-two in re-signing a player coming off a career year.  This could come down to which player they want to pay $4 million, Carl Hagelin, who is more versatile, but who has never had a 20-goal year in eight seasons and is almost four years older than Connolly, or Connolly, the more productive offensive player, if somewhat limited to that role

In the end…

It took some time, but Brett Connolly re-engineered his game, from a top-ten draft pick expected to provide powerful scoring punch (a role in which he disappointed two teams) to a third-liner who can provide scoring production not usually seen from that layer of forwards.  He has paired well with Lars Eller over the last two seasons to make the Caps’ third line an important ingredient in their success.  But nothing lasts forever, especially in hockey, where circumstance and financial considerations make for constant and frequent player turnover.  The term “cap casualty” might be attached to Connolly this summer, but if it comes to pass, it is because his performance and contributions to the team’s success over the last three years made it so.  And fans should be happy with that.

Grade: B+

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“Suspense is worse than disappointment.”

-- Robert Burns

 

 

Ten months ago, we closed our look back at Andre Burakovsky’s season with this question: “does he take the next step to being a productive top-six quality forward, or will he continue to exhibit the injury tendencies and inconsistencies of the last three seasons?”  After a third straight season posting 12 goals and a second straight season of 25 points, we have our answer, and it is not one that Caps fans would have preferred.  

Despite the fact that Burakovsky is still just 24 years old and will not turn 25 until next February, he finished the 2018-2019 season with 328 regular season and another 56 postseason games on his resume.  One would think – or at least hope – that a player with this much experience on his resume was displaying the game one would expect to see in his prime.  If that is true for Burakovsky, it is something of a disappointment, if this is his prime performance level.  But here is the frightening part of coming to that conclusion at this point in his career.  Let’s consider three players over their first five seasons up to their 24 year old season:

Burakovsky:  23^rd overall draft pick (2013), 62 goals, 83 assists, 145 points, 4183 minutes ice time

Player B: 7^th overall draft pick (2011), 58 goals, 87 assists, 145 points, 3995 minutes ice time

Player C: 6^th overall draft pick (2006), 51 goals, 100 assists, 151 points, 4250 minutes ice time

Player B is Mark Scheifele, who blossomed into a 29-goal scorer in that fifth season of his career and thereafter has been a point per game player for the Winnipeg Jets.  Player C is Derick Brassard, who does have a 60-point season and two 20-goal seasons, but who is now on his sixth NHL team in 12 seasons and fourth in his last two seasons.  One is a bona fide NHL star, while the other has always seemed to be more potential than performance despite decent mid-career numbers.

Burakovsky meandered his way to an unimpressive set of numbers over his first five ten-game segments, going 6-6-12, minus-5, covering a total of 44 games out of the 50 on the schedule to that point that brought the Caps to the All-Star Game break.  After that, and here is where Burakovsky’s propensity to tease emerged once more, he was 6-7-13, plus-7, in his last 32 games over the last three segments, despite averaging almost a minute less per game over this stretch (10:43) than the previous one (11:25).  He did, however, close the regular season and open the postseason once more with a lot of zeroes on his score sheet.  After posting goals in three straight games in early March, he went his last 14 games of the regular season and first five games of the postseason with one goal and one assist with an “even” plus-minus rating.

Fearless’ Take… For all his disappointments in light of his potential, Andre Burakovsky is rather accomplished for this franchise at this point in his career.  Among 78 players who played in at least 100 games by their 24-year old season for the Caps, he is ninth in games played (328), tied for 15^th in career goals (62, with Michal Pivonka), 12^th in even strength goals (55), 23^th in assists (83), 20^th in points (145), and sixth in game-winning goals (13).  Even in 2018-2019 he was important for results, even if you wish he did it more often.  The Caps were 9-2-1 in the 12 games in which he had a goal, 15-3-4 in the 22 games in which he had a point. 

Cheerless’ Take… There was an odd lack of engagement by Burakovsky in a physical sense this season.  He is not generally known as a physical player, but only eight times this season did he record a hit and a blocked shot in the same game.  Not that it mattered a lot, since the Caps were just 4-3-1 in those games.  And there was the odd lack of team results even when he was engaged.  In 41 games this season, Burakovsky was one ice for at least ten shot attempts at 5-on-5.  Only 22 times in those games did the Caps win.  He just was not consistently able to translate action into results.

Odd Burakovsky Fact… Of 20 players with at least 50 goals scored for the Caps since 2005-2006, Burakovsky has the second-best percentage of game-winning goals to total goals (21.0 percent), trailing only Jay Beagle (23.5 percent).

Game to Remember… December 6^th at Arizona

The Caps were in the midst of a three-game road trip in early December, having lost the first game of that trip and with losses in consecutive games for the first time in a month when they took the ice in Arizona.  The Caps found themselves chasing the game, allowing the game’s first goal and allowing another barely a minute after they tied the game early in the second period.  Matt Niskanen  got the Caps even late in the second period, and the teams fought to a draw with no goals scored in the first 15 minutes of the third period.  In the 16^th minute, Niskanen fired a long cross-ice diagonal pass from his own end to Burakovsky crossing the red line.  Skating into the Coyotes’ end, Burakovsky got to the top of the left wing circle and unleashed a shot under the stick of defenseman Kevin Connauton and past the blocker of goalie Adin Hill on the short side to make it a 3-2 game, 15:18 into the period.  Alex Ovechkin potted an empty netter late, but for Burakovsky, subbing for an injured Tom Wilson on the top line, his was the game-winning goal, welcome in ending a two-game losing streak and lighting the match to what would be a five-game winning streak.

Game to Forget…  February 3^rd vs. Boston

A lot of Capitals might like to forget this game in early February.  The Caps went into it with a 14-game winning streak against the Bruins.  There would not be a 15^th.  Tuukka Rask, whose career numbers against the Caps going into this game would frighten Stephen King, pitched a 1-0 shutout to become the all-time leader in wins by a goalie in Bruin history.  For his part, Burakovsky did not record a shot attempt while skating on the fourth line, hitting the ice for only ten shifts and 7:18 of ice time, none of which came in the last 13 minutes of the game with the Caps trying to chase down the tying goal.

Postseason… If the Caps had anything at all from Burakovsky early in the series against Carolina, the series might not have gone seven games.  As it was, though, he did not record a point in Games 1-5, was minus-4, and had only one shot on goal over those games.  Only once in those five games did he skate more than 10 minutes, logging 14:08 in a 2-1 loss in Game 4.  He did bounce back somewhat in Games 6 and 7 with an assist in the former and a goal in the latter, but it was not nearly enough.  Going back to last spring’s Stanley Cup final, he is 1-2-3, minus-3, in his last ten postseason games with only nine shots on goal, three of those coming in the double-overtime loss to Carolina in Game 7 in the first round that ended the Caps’ season.

Looking forward…

After completing his entry level contract at three years and $2.775 million, followed by his extension for two years at $3.0 million per year on a bridge contract, Andre Burakovsky finds himself an arbitration-eligible free agent.  To retain negotiating rights, the Caps would have to qualify him at $3.25 million.  That is a lot to pay a player who averaged barely 11 minutes per game this season, was at times a fourth liner and others a healthy scratch, and who was largely silent in the latter part of the regular season and playoffs.  Given that the Caps have the renewals of Carl Hagelin, Brett Connolly, Christian Djoos, and Jakub Vrana, among others, on their plate, Burakovsky might be at a crossroads of his career. 

In the end…

Burakovsky does not have the enigmatic quality of Alexander Semin, a highly skilled player whose frustrating tenure as a Capital preceded Burakovsky’s by a decade.  Nevertheless, Burakovsky’s career in Washington has been a head-scratcher.  He has displayed a variety of talents – speed, skating ability in tight places, good hands, a wicked shot – but it has not been displayed either frequently or consistently enough.  More often, he has simply disappeared too often from games altogether.  A player of his skill should not have had 21 games this season without a shot on goal, although getting fourth line minutes for much of the year will do that.  It seems as likely as not that Burakovsky will be playing in another city next season.  Retaining him is among the hardest decisions the Caps will make this off-season.  It is hard for a team to let a 24-year old with his skill set go, and how the Caps deal with that decision will be an important story line this off-season. 

Grade: C-

Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Travis Boyd

Travis Boyd

“He has the deed half done who has made a beginning.”

-- Horace

The 2011 NHL entry draft was equal parts odd and forgettable for the Washington Capitals, with one exception.  The Caps did not have a first round pick, that having been sent to the Chicago Blackhawks in a trade for Troy Brouwer.  Second rounder?  Nope.  That one went to the Carolina Hurricanes in a trade for Joe Corvo (the pick finally settled in Calgary after a couple of subsequent transactions).  Their third round pick went to the Florida Panthers in a trade for Dennis Wideman. 

The Caps did have their remaining picks in the fourth through seventh rounds.  Two of them – fifth round pick Patrick Koudys and seventh round pick Garrett Haar -- never got past the ECHL level of pro hockey, and a third – goaltender Steffen Soberg – never played a game of pro hockey in North America. 

That left the Caps’ sixth round draft pick, Travis Boyd, the lone survivor of a four-pick draft.  Taken 177^th overall in that 2011 draft, Boyd spent the next four seasons at the University of Minnesota before graduating the Hershey Bears in the AHL at the end of the 2014-2015 season.  Boyd spent the next two full seasons with the Bears before splitting his 2017-2018 season into 61 games with Hershey and eight with the Caps in his first NHL action.  He got into one game in the Caps’ Stanley Cup run, the Game 6 overtime win over Pittsburgh that clinched the Eastern Conference semi-final series over the Penguins.

Boyd started the 2018-2019 on the shelf with an injury suffered in a preseason game and got his first action of the year in Hershey on a conditioning assignment.  He debuted for the Caps in early November and did so in style, recording a pair of assists on first period goals in a 4-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers.

After missing the Caps’ first dozen games, Boyd dressed for 53 of the last 70 regular season games and was one of 15 Capitals to finish with 20 or more points (5-15-20).  He was the good luck charm that illustrates the benefits of secondary scoring.  Washington was 15-2-1 in the 18 games in which he recorded a point.

Fearless’ Take… Whatever becomes of Boyd’s career going forward, one can be impressed with its beginning for its doggedness.  Perhaps that is a product of the foundation he got coming up – two seasons with the USA Hockey National Team Development Program before he was drafted, four years at one of the top NCAA hockey programs, and three seasons with the Hershey Bears, the flagship franchise in the AHL.  That he finished with 20 points in 53 games (0.38 points per game, almost as many as Lars Eller (0.44) and more than Andre Burakovsky (0.33) was a bit of a surprise, given that he was not an elite scorer as an amateur.  There is some evidence that he might be a late bloomer in this area, given he averaged 20-43-63 per 82 games in his stay with the Hershey Bears.

Cheerless’ Take… He’s a nice story, but boy, he is swimming upstream against a powerful current of history.  Over 20 years ending with Boyd’s selection in 2011, the Caps had 18 sixth round draft picks.  He is one of only five to appear in an NHL game and one of only three to appear in an NHL game for the Caps (Mathieu Perreault appeared in 159 games for the Caps, and Garrett Mitchell dressed for one game in 2016-2017).  There is something to be said for the solid grounding he got in his development, but he still finished this season as a bubble player who dressed for only one postseason game.

Odd Boyd Fact… Travis Boyd was one of only three players in the league this season to record 20 or more points while averaging less than ten minutes of ice time per game.  Winnipeg’s Jack Roslovic was 9-15-24 while averaging 9:45 per game, and Los Angeles’ Austin Wagner was 12-9-21 while averaging 8:56 per game.

Bonus Odd Boyd Fact… Boyd was one on only two forwards in the league to log more than 500 minutes of ice time and record 35 of fewer shots.  Boyd had 35 shots in 521 minutes of ice time, while Colorado’s Gabriel Bourque had 34 shots in 536 minutes of ice time.

Game to Remember… December 8^th at Columbus

After missing the Caps’ first dozen games of the season, Travis Boyd played through his first dozen games of the season in solid fashion, averaging half a point per game, a respectable number for a fourth liner getting ten minutes a game.  However, all six points he had came on assists.  In his 13^th game of the season, in Columbus against the Blue Jackets, he recorded a first period assist on a Dmitrij Jaskin goal to give the Caps a 2-0 lead in that contest.  Alex Ovechkin tallied with less than a minute in the first period to give the Caps a 3-0 lead.  When the Caps held onto that lead going into the third period, the competitive portion of the game appeared over, and the object was to play smart, minimize risks, and play responsibly, common ingredients in a recipe for road success.  

But there was still time for a moment, and what a moment it was for Boyd.  Alex Ovechkin gathered up a loose puck at the Columbus blue line and circled into the zone on a 2-on-1 with Boyd.  From the left wing circle, Ovechkin slid a pass under defenseman Seth Jones’ stick and onto the tape of Boyd’s stick.  Boyd wasted no time in snapping a shot past the outstretched glove of goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to record his first NHL goal.  A first goal coming off a pass from a former Calder/Hart/Ross/Lindsay/Richard/Smythe Trophy winner and beating a former Vezina Trophy winner.  It hardly gets more memorable than that.

Game to Forget… March 30^th at Tampa Bay

If it was a statement game to be played against the league’s top team in the regular season, the Caps delivered an emphatic statement to the Tampa Bay Lightning on their own ice sheet in late March.  The Caps scored three first period goals, held a 4-0 lead after less than 28 minutes, and withstood a brief Lightning rally before closing out a 6-3 win.  Stars were stars for the Caps with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie each recording a pair of goals.  Travis Boyd’s record of the game barely registered.  In just over six minutes of ice time, his lowest ice time of the season, he did not record a shot attempt, had only one mark on his score sheet (a takeaway), and was a minus-1.  Winning makes everyone feel good, but it feels better when one has made bigger contributions to the effort.  For Boyd, who skated a team low 12 shifts, it was a night with little to remember.

Looking Ahead…

Travis Boyd is entering the last year of a two-year contract that carries an $800,000 cap hit.  He will be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent at the end of the season.  How he begins the season will be more a product of what happens with other players, who the Caps are inclined and/or are able to resign from among their nine restricted and unrestricted free agents.  That he played in 16 of 19 games after the trading deadline and went 1-3-4 while averaging just 8:36 in ice time, and that he followed that up with only one postseason game suggests he is on the bubble as a regular next season or even a roster player. 

That the Caps have seven restricted and unrestricted free agents among the forwards hints at the potential for opportunity for a player to break through.  One would normally consider that a player such as Boyd would face some pressure from players rising from Hershey, but the likely suspects there – Nathan Walker and Riley Barber – are Group 6 unrestricted free agents, and Liam O’Brien is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent going into this off-season.  Since the Caps are at the 50-contact limit (source: capfriendly.com ) with some expected churn within that number, Boyd might be in a unique position to be standing on the ice on Opening Night for the Caps when the dust settles.

In the end…

Travis Boyd had a nice rookie season.  He finished in the top-25 among rookie point-getters despite only Los Angeles’ Austin Wagner averaging less ice time in that group (8:56) than Boyd (9:50).  The question hovering over Boyd going into next season will be whether his improvement in scoring output in the AHL and his respectable rookie season indicate an upside that is only beginning to be tapped, or if he is at or near his performance plateau, given that he will turn 26 years of age in training camp.  Still, looking at the 2018-2019 season, the injured start, and the role he was asked to play, it was a good season for the rookie.

Grade: B