The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, April 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Again?

Yeah, what about it? You have better things to do??

Well, I . . .

No, you don’t . . . keep reading.

Tonight, the Caps end their journey through the Southeast Division with a visit to Atlanta to battle the Thrashers. Frankly, it hasn’t been pretty.

10-15-6

It’s not as if the Caps have been barren of contributions. Alex Ovechkin is 23-18-41 in 31 games. Alexander Semin is 21-17-38 in 30 games. Chris Clark has almost half his goals – 13 – in 27 games. Even Kris Beech has five of his eight goals against the Southeast.

Looking for a problem? Yup, you guessed it – defense. The Caps are 29^th in the league in goals allowed within their division. Only Philadelphia is worse. Not the best company to be keeping. Not even Philly saves them in shot differential. The Caps are dead last in the NHL in shot differential within their own division.

The Caps have played Atlanta tough, though. They’ve given up about a third of a goal a game less against the Thrashers than their average against Southeast Division opponents, and they’ve actually outshot the Thrashers. Further, after going 0-2-2 in the first four meetings, the Caps are 2-1 in the last three meetings.

After Olaf Kolzig got the shutout against Florida on Tuesday night, it would be reasonable to expect Brent Johnson to get a start in this penultimate game of the season. Johnson has been respectable, going 1-1-1, 2.92, .908.

If there is one thing to look for – well, in addition to Ovechkin’s seven goals in seven games – it would be special teams. The Caps are 9-for-39 on the power play versus Atlanta this year (23.1 percent) while giving up only five goals in 35 shorthanded situations (85.7 percent). The Caps also have a shorthanded goal against Atlanta this year.

The problem is that Alexander Semin did not take the ice in the third period against Florida. Assuming he is injured, that will leave quite a hole where a 3-3-6 line in six games ought to be.

Nevertheless, winning breeds winning, and where there is one, there are two . . .

Caps 3 – Thrashers 2.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Panthers

TWO points, tonight and a

Yes, Caps fans, for the first time since February 15, 2004, Olaf Kolzig recorded a shutout – a 1-0 blanking of the Florida Panthers. It was his first shutout in Washington since a similarly authored 1-0 win over Edmonton on January 11, 2004.

The whitewashing of the Panthers was a fine effort from Kolzig, but it wasn’t as if he didn’t have help, either. The ice surface played more like bad asphalt with the puck hopping to and fro, and neither club able to establish any sort of offensive rhythm. But when he had to be, Kolzig was a dark wall casting a shadow across the defensive zone (that "Acme School of Good Writin’" correspondence course is coming in handy). The Caps put the game in his hands in the third period, content to chip the puck out of danger rather than mount any offense (four shots for the period).

The game was played largely in the perimeter of the rink; neither club was able to pose much of a threat from prime scoring zones. The lone exception game just after the five-minute mark of the second period, when Brooks Laich hustled after the puck along the right wing boards in the Florida end. Laich backhanded a pass onto the tape of Alex Ovechkin’s stick at the edge of the right wing circle, and the left wing snapped the puck over goalie Craig Anderson’s shoulder. It would be enough.

In addition to Kolzig’s solid performance, Ovechkin might have played his most animated game in more than a month. He was a dervish on the ice. In addition to the five shots and the goal he recorded, he rang another shot off the post behind Anderson, he positively undressed Jay Bouwmeester on a dash down the left side, and he almost had one of the highlight goals of the year with a no-look backhand that sailed just wide from the high slot. If not for the positively awful ice surface, Ovechkin might have registered his first home hat trick.

But there were unsung heroes, too . . .

- Brooks Laich didn’t look out of place manning the pivot on the first line for much of the game between Ovechkin and Alexander Semin. Laich didn’t register a shot on goal, but he spent a lot of time digging for loose pucks and playing solid at both ends.

- Alexander Semin needs to be yelled at more. Perhaps with more frequency than the rest of the season, combined, Semin was hustling back on defense to cover a late arriving forward or to deny a passing lane to a forward camped out in the middle.

- Milan Jurcina left dents all over the Verizon Center boards, the imprints matching the body images of a lot of Panthers.

- Boyd Gordon owned the faceoff circle, winning 12 of 16 draws as the Caps won 29 of 49 overall.

Frankly, on this night it would be difficult to find much to fault in any Cap’s play. Matt Pettinger and Tomas Flesichmann each were victimized on more than one occasion by the difficult ice. Jeff Schultz played another in what has been a surprising season of steady games.

There was even a rollicking good crowd on hand tonight. It was one of those nights when a Caps fan might ask, in exasperated fashion, “why can’t every night be like this?”

update: Well, maybe not like this. The shift chart shows a yawning blank spot where Alexander Semin's time should be in the third period. Not having launched any pucks goalward, one can only surmise he sustained an injury, although what that might be has not yet been released.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, April 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

79 down . . . way down. Three to go.

The Caps play their last home weeknight tilt tonight, hosting the Florida Panthers, and given the Caps’ travails lately, it doesn’t . . .

“Excuse me, son…”

Coach Rockne? And the rest of the esteemed panel . . . what brings you gentlemen here?

“It's up to us to show them what we've got. Let's get down to business and carry the mail.”

I can see that, Coach Rockne, but there are only three games left. How much mail is left in the bag?

“Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit.”

“That’s right Vince…like I told my guys, ‘Don't worry about the horse being blind, just load the wagon.’”

Well, Coach Madden, that’s all well and good, but what do you do with the wagon when it’s loaded at this point in the season?

“I’ll take that one, John . . . be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are.”

“Well said, Coach Wooden . . . there is no need for me continuing unless I'm able to improve.”

These are good ideas, but what do you make of the Caps and their post-game meeting and abuse of electronic equipment after the last game?

“Show me a good and gracious loser and I'll show you a failure.”

“That’s right, Coach Rockne . . . The only yardstick for success our society has is being a champion. No one remembers anything else.”

So, Coach Madden, you don’t see anything wrong in the locker room with such an outburst?....

“Son, hockey is like football, a game that requires the constant conjuring of animosity.”

“You took the words right out of my mouth, Vince . . . how ‘bout you, Casey?”

“Well, you gotta lose 'em some of the time. When you do, lose 'em right.”

If the Caps are going to lose, then they’d better be going about it right, building the habits of character that will be rewarded when their skill and experience catch up. Tonight, they get a chance to do that against the Panthers in their last meeting of the year. And, the Caps get to drive a stake into what is left of the Panthers’ playoff hopes – a small reward for having gone 0-3-2 in the last five meetings between the clubs this year.

Here is your odd stat of the game . . . the Caps are 8-1-3 (that’s three ties, back when hockey was hockey) against Florida, all time, in the clubs’ last meeting of the year.

Hey, why mess with history . . .

Caps 4 – Panthers 3

Pass the Pepto, The Peerless is Going to be Ill

As a Caps fan, I wanted to retch.

As a hockey fan, I found it eight shades of creepy.

Read this, dear Caps fan, but do not do it on a full stomach.

Such blind hero worship in an eight-year old is understandable – in its own way even laudable as a standard for the youngster to emulate. But in a “journalist” who represents “The Worldwide Leader in Sports?”

Some of the fingernails John Buccigross dragged down a chalkboard . . .

“This season's story has unquestionably been what is happening in Pittsburgh…

“…ESPN The Magazine has put Ron Artest on the cover of its magazine this year and not Crosby. Sports Illustrated has put Chad Johnson -- CHAD JOHNSON! -- on its cover, but can't seem to find time to chronicle the best story in sports from the past 12 months. You have to wonder if people who cover sports really like sports anymore.”

The best story in sports from the past 12 months? A franchise that was dead last in the NHL in attendance just a few seasons ago, one which – in a sports-mad town such as Pittsburgh – couldn’t prevail upon politicos to come to agreement over a financing deal for a new arena for more than a year, and one that is fueled by draft picks realized from some of the worst hockey played in North America in a decade and a goofy lottery system that made it the NHL equivalent of a Powerball winner . . . this is “the best story in sports from the past 12 months?” Hey, maybe Ron Howard can direct, "Cinderella Team."

“Crosby will also likely win league MVP. The Penguins went from the worst team in the East to a 100-point team. Crosby is not the only reason for the team's success, but everything in Pittsburgh starts in his fire-filled belly of competitiveness.”

“Fire-filled belly of competitiveness?” . . . yeesh. The Peerless hasn’t seen such tortured alliteration since he took creative writing in seventh grade.

“Penguins coach Michel Therrien is also the runaway coach of the year. From last to almost first?! Coaching teenagers?! You really can't overestimate or overemphasize what is happening in Pittsburgh this season.”

Really?....runaway coach of the year? Sorry, but when the season started the Penguins weren’t thought to be contenders, but they weren’t thought to be the standing joke among NHL franchises that the Islanders were, either. The Peerless isn’t a fan of that club, and injuries at the worst possible time have eliminated all but the dimmest chance that they make the playoffs, but one might argue that Ted Nolan has done more with less under more difficult circumstances than has a coach sitting on five top-five draft picks, a top-ten career goal scorer among active players, and one of the top scoring defensemen of the last decade, or at least enough to keep Therrien from being Secretariat to the rest of the field's Twice a Prince.

Lou, Lou, Lou...

“They're playing like an ordinary team, but I remember that was the case two seasons ago”

Coach Claude Julien said that. Not yesterday in reference to his New Jersey Devils, but in November 2005 about an opponent while coaching the Montreal Canadiens.

Funny how things like that can come back to bite you, and this morning a big wet bite was taken out of the coach’s backside by Devils GM Lou Lamoriello, who called not to say “hang in there,” but to serve Julien his pink slip.

New Jersey has been playing like an ordinary team this past month, posting a 6-6-2 record in March after a 10-3-0 record in February. Worse, while the Devils had an 11-point lead on the Pittsburgh Penguins at the end of February, they found themselves looking up – 100 points to 101 – to the Penguins as the month of April began.

For a team with such a high standard of performance as the Devils, it was an ominous sign, one supposes, indicating that the club wasn’t as finely tuned for the playoffs as Lamoriello would have liked.

It isn’t as if Lamoriello hasn’t done this before. In 2000 he fired coach Robbie Ftorek with four games left in the regular season, replacing him with Larry Robinson. The Devils went on to win the Cup. In January 2002 he fired Larry Robinson, less than a year after coming within a victory of winning consecutive Stanley Cups. Robinson would be brought back after the lockout for another tour upon the illness of Pat Burns, but resigned in December 2005 over health issues. Lamoriello took the reins for the last 50 games of the season, taking the club into the second round of the playoffs.

While the previous two coaching changes – those of Burns and Robinson – were born out of medical necessity, there is something unsettling about this change. Lamoriello’s body of work is virtually without peer among active general managers. Four appearances in the last 11 Stanley Cup finals – with three victories to show for them – and perennial rankings among Cup favorites certify his talent at building a winning tradition.

But this has the whiff of something different. Lamoriello hamstrung his club badly by straining his salary cap position to start the year. While he was able to squirm out from under the crushing contracts of Vladimir Malakhov and Alexander Mogilny – a potential $7.1 million cap hit to his club – thus allowing him to re-sign the likes of Brian Gionta and others, the Devils have spent much of the year still brushing the tops of their helmets against the cap. While teams like Pittsburgh were adding a Gary Roberts and the Rangers a pest such as Sean Avery and a defenseman such as Paul Mara, the Devils were left with no flexibility at the trading deadline, making a pair of relatively inconsequential deals to move players for mid-round draft picks.

In the March results, the writing might have been on the wall that this crop of Devils had maxed out its potential, and that it was largely running on the fumes of what Martin Brodeur could provide. And he was 6-6-2 with uncharacteristic 2.92 GAA and .895 save percentage numbers.

It is Lamoriello’s team, and in a perverse sense there is nobility in his taking the controls. Claude Julien is unemployed this evening, but it hardly seems his fault. The seeds of this firing were sown last summer with the team Lamoriello bequeathed to his coach.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Attendance

It seems such a straight-forward concept – counting the bodies that pass through the turnstiles. In the NHL, though, the concept is not so straight-forward, not so simple.

An article and accompanying analysis (through games of January 31) by the Globe and Mail* shines a light on the lie that is the puff offered by the NHL on its wonderful attendance figures. While the article by David Shoalts concerns itself with the Atlanta Thrashers and their dubious honor as the league's most charitable franchise (leading the NHL in ticket giveaways), the trouble is hardly confined to one team.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, for example, who are “officially” third in the NHL in average attendance and play to an “official” capacity of 100.4 percent per home game, achieve this lofty level by virtue of giving away tickets that amount to eight percent of capacity per game. And this is up 38 percent over last year.

The New Jersey Devils, who aren’t winning any awards for their “official” attendance, are giving away nine percent of capacity a game – up 22 percent over last year.

The Colorado Avalanche – not long ago the darling of the consecutive sellout crowd – is third in the league in giveaways, up a whopping 71 percent from last year and 14 percent of capacity.

It’s worth noting that as part of the same Globe and Mail analysis, only three clubs show lower average ticket prices this year – Phoenix, Florida, and the Islanders. All of these teams are in the top half of the giveaway rankings.

Overall, giveaways are down four percent from last year. But still, they represent six percent of total capacity. Is that the profile of a healthy league?

* Thanks to Stanthefan on The Official for pointing the way to the article.

The Serious Six -- The Sprint to the Finish

The sprint begins, and there are teams (well, team) who appear to have clinched one of the last three spots, and there are teams teetering on the brink of falling out of contention.

Let’s look at the teams . . .

Tampa Bay:

90 points.
Games remaining: CAR, FLA, at ATL
Record against remaining opponents: 12-8-1

The Lightning probably punched their ticket to the top-eight with their 5-2 win over the Capitals last night. They can probably eliminate Carolina from any further consideration with a win tonight. Tampa Bay has a three point lead on ninth-place Toronto, but they have 43 wins to the Maple Leafs’ 38. Wins being the first tie-breaker, it would take a complete collapse by the Lightning at this point to fall out of the top-eight.

**********

NY Rangers:

89 points
Games remaining: TOR, at NYI, MON, at PIT
Record against remaining opponents: 9-9-2

Tonight’s game against the Maple Leafs is, to be obvious about it, huge for both teams. A win by the Rangers would give them a five point edge with three games to play for both clubs, and the Rangers would hold the edge in total wins, 41-38. A big plus for the Rangers going into this last week is that even though they trail in the season series to the Islanders, 4-3 – who they play on Tuesday -- the Blueshirts have won the last three contests, all by 2-1 margins, two of those in extra time.

**********

Montreal:

88 points
Games Remaining: BOS, at NY Rangers, at Toronto
Record against remaining opponents: 9-7-1

Montreal has 41 wins, which is at least three more than any of the clubs trailing the Canadiens. But these three games will be difficult. The game against Boston is the key here. Montreal cannot get caught peeking ahead to the road games to follow. In any case, it would appear that things will come down to the season finale in Toronto.

**********

Toronto:

87 points
Games remaining: at NY Rangers, PHL, at NYI, MON
Record against remaining opponents: 9-1-5

It’s rather remarkable that the Maple Leafs have only one regulation loss to the four clubs still on the schedule, especially since three of them are fellow travelers in this sprint to the finish. Also, the Leafs are 4-1-1 in their last six games, including wins over playoff clubs New Jersey, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh. Winning today’s game against the Rangers would put the Leafs into the top eight at Montreal’s expense, both with three games left to play.

**********

Carolina:

84 points
Games remaining: at FLA, at TBL, ATL, FLA
Record against remaining opponents: 12-6-2

Well, the puck certainly is on Carolina’s stick, so to speak. Against Florida – a club Carolina will play twice this week – the Hurricanes are 5-1-0. They’ve dominated Atlanta, going 4-2-1. They are 2-1-0 in Tampa this year. Given that they have 38 wins – only the Islanders have fewer among the “six” – they probably have to win out to get in.

**********

NY Islanders:

84 points
Games remaining: NY Rangers, TOR, at PHL, at NJD
Record against remaining opponents: 12-9-3

The good news – the Islanders aren’t eliminated yet. The bad news – they are 1-5-1 against the Devils and haven’t beaten them since their first meeting of the year. And, the Islanders might be 4-1-2 against the Rangers, but they are 0-1-2 in their last three meetings, all 2-1 losses. Worst of all, goalie Rick DiPietro could be out for the rest of the regular season with a concussion. Trailing Montreal by four points and five wins, they have to win out and hope for help. Seeing how the Islanders have lost all three games following DiPietro's injury by a combined score of 14-8, it looks grim.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Lightning

It’s a no point night . . .

Well…the Nats are opening their season on Monday, and apparently, one Capitals forward thought tonight might be a good time to audition for an outfield spot on the club. The Caps lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 5-2, and the lowlight of the game was Alexander Semin showing off his arm for Jim Bowden and Stan Kasten (as if they were watching). Flattened against the boards at the Tampa Bay blue line, Semin sat up, picked up the puck, and threw it into the Lightning end . . .

Two minutes for stupid, was the way one Lightning player put it.

Moments later on the ensuing power play, Tampa doubled their lead, and the Caps were on their way to finding another way to lose.

Being young is one thing, but being brain dead is quite another. Semin was rewarded for his antics with two inconsequential shifts over the last 22 minutes. It’s the second time he’s resorted to throwing the puck this year. Here’s a thought…duct tape his hands to his stick!

As for the rest of the game, it was crisply played, time-wise, but otherwise wasn’t much of a contest. With Semin sitting for those last 22 minutes, the Caps were reduced to whatever offense Alex Ovechkin could muster (save for a last-minute cosmetic goal from Matt Bradley). Trouble is, Ovechkin had exactly no shots on goal over a 24:39 period from late in the first period to early in the third. No other Capital seemed able to take up the slack.

Washington gave up the required power play goal, and even yielded a short-handed one for good measure. That’s nine of 11 games in which the Caps have given up a power play goal, killing off only 36 of 51 shorthanded situations in the process (70.6 percent).

Every indignity imaginable hit the Caps in this game – a goal in the first minute, a power play goal, a short-handed goal, and empty net goal, getting out-hit by a club that isn’t especially physical, and a really, really stupid play. All that was left was for Olaf Kolzig to be pantsed in his own crease.

Meanwhile . . .

. . . the Hershey Bears are riding a seven game winning streak. And, with tonight’s 6-5 win over Breidgport, the Bears took over the top-spot overall in the AHL, passing the Norfolk Admirals for first in the East Division of the Eastern Conference.

It’s not like a lot of the games have been close, either. Even with the Bears 6-5 score-first, fall-behind, come-back-in-the-end win over Bridgeport tonight, they have outscored opponents to the tune of 30-13 over these seven games. Tonight was the first time in these seven games that an opponent scored more than two goals.

Kyle Wilson has led the way in scoring, going 3-7-10. Among the others:

- Dave Steckel, 2-7-9
- Chris Bourque: 4-4-8, including a hat trick tonight
- Joey Tenute: 4-3-7
- Matt Hendricks: 4-3-7
- Quintin Laing: 3-4-7
- Jakub Klepis: 3-4-7 (before being recalled to Washington)

In goal, Frederic Cassivi is 4-0-0, 1.00, .963 in four appearances in this stretch, while Maxime Daigneault is 3-0-0, 3.00, .871 in three appearances.

It’s an unhappy spring for Caps fans in Washington, but in Hershey, there is hope of another deep run in the playoffs to come. Way to go, guys…

A Marketing Dream . . .

The Peerless was over checking on the fine folks over at On Frozen Blog this morning, perusing a note about The Finnish Curiosity, Janne Lahti, and it occurred to me . . . the NHL needs a makeover. Shoot, it’s right there in front of their gin-soaked eyes . . .

PUCKCAR

Ever been to a NASCAR race? Well, The Peerless hasn’t, but he’s seen 10 or 20 seconds of the odd race or two on TV. And what do you see?

This…

photo: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images

…and this…

Photo: Getty Images

Ads plastered on every square inch of driver and car, just like, well, The Curiosity…

Look, even announcers can get into gear, as it were, on this...

“And there goes the Mello Yello Burger King Alexander Ovechkin into the far corner where he drafts the DeWalt Pennzoil Zdeno Chara to take the puck . . . and Chara puts him into the wall . . . there's the yellow flag . . . two minutes for boarding . . . ”

What? It’s worse than what passes for NHL marketing now?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Yes, we’re back on this fine spring morning to bring you another prognostication, and this morning it’s . . .

“PEERLESS!”

Rodney?

“ho-ho . . . I tell ya, you guys don’t get NO respect, NO respect . . . “

Don’t I know it…

“Yeah, if you look up the family tree of hockey, you guys are the sap.”

Nice…

“Hey, we kid because we love…so, you guys are playing the Lightning…”

Yeah, and Lecavalier got his 50^th last night – maybe it’ll be some incentive for Ovechkin tonight.

“Hey, that’s Vinnie, right?...Did I ever tell ya about my doctor, Dr. Vinnie Boom Botz . . . one time he tells me, ‘you’re too fat,’ and I tell him I want a second opinion, and then he tells me, ‘you’re ugly, too’ . . . maybe he should take a look at your guys.”

Uh, you’ll have to check with Coach Hanlon about that one.

“Hey, I watched your guys last night against Florida – tough break, tough break . . . you guys don’t get no respect from anybody . . . I’ll bet when the guys put on their underwear, even the Fruit-of-the-Loom guys start laughing.”

You haven’t lost it, Rodney.

“So what’s the deal . . . last time I saw you guys, you weren’t this bad . . . if one of these guys stuck his head out o’ the window of the team bus, he’d get arrested for mooning . . . on Hallowe’en, parents will be sending their kids out dressed as Caps.”

C’mon, they’re not that bad…

“No, but I got a lot of material . . . “

Sure wish the Caps did . . .

The Lightning are one of the “serious six” clubs fighting for the last three playoff spots in the East (no, we’re not inclined to include Florida as a “seventh” . . . but that could change by midnight). They have to be licking their chops at the prospect of the Caps coming to town, if only for this number:

71.4

That is the Caps penalty killing rate over their last ten games. The Caps have scored 30 goals and given up 34 in going 2-6-2 in their last 10, but that 7-14 spread in power play for and against sticks out like Rodney’s trademark red tie. It might be the tonic for a Lightning power play that is only 5-for-37 on its own over the last ten games (13.5 percent).

Vincent Lecavalier scored his 50^th goal last night against Carolina, his first time eclipsing the 50-goal plateau and serving perhaps as a dagger in the Hurricanes flagging playoff hopes. Finally taking his place among the elites in the game, Lecavalier brings a 7-7-14 line in his last ten games into tonight’s contest.

The trouble is, though, Tampa Bay is only 5-5-0 in their last ten games. Why? Goaltending. An issue all year, it’s been magnified under the lens of the sprint to the finish. Last night the Lightning got a solid effort from Johan Holmqvist in the 4-2 win over Carolina. He’s been adequate in going 2-1-0, 2.87, .912 over Tampa’s last ten games. Marc Denis, who has been getting more of the work lately and could very well get the call tonight, given Holmqvist's struggles against the Caps (2-2-0, 4.31, .826), is 3-4-0, 3.76, .887 in his appearances over the last ten Lightning games. That isn’t far off his career numbers against Washington – 4-3-1-0, 3.71, .881.

The Caps can score against this team. They’ve scored 30 goals in seven games in the season series (they’ve given up 25, too). And, they can shut down the Lightning power play – 28-for-33, 84.5 percent, in the season series and scoreless in the last two games.

The difficulty for the Lightning is in keeping focus in the second half of a back-to-back set of games, this one being against a lesser opponent. Given the chance to take care of business, the Lightning have been treading water the last ten games. Last night was, for them, a step forward. Tonight is a step back…

Caps 4 – Lightning 2

After-Math -- Caps vs. Panthers

It was a one point night, folks.

The hockey gods are not accountants.

Because, if they were they would take a look at the great ledger of hockey history and figure out that somewhere, sometime . . . soon . . . the Washington Capitals are owed, bigtime.

Last night was another night of recording debits in that ledger. The Caps lost by a 3-2 score to the Florida Panthers in overtime, but frankly, it never should have come to pass in that way. Two moments – both of which went against the Caps – allowed the Panthers to hang around long enough to put themselves in a position to win in overtime. One of those moments happened in the blink of an eye, they other was reviewed and reviewed and reviewed over several excruciating minutes with Caps fans no doubt knowing in their hearts how it would turn out.

The first, one that a lot of folks missed – certainly the referees did – was a hook on Tomas Fleischmann that took him to the ice and permitted the Panthers to clear their defensive zone. Moments later on that same rush, Florida had a goal.

But it was the second one that haunts. Matt Bradley fired the puck at the Florida cage from a bad angle and the puck found its way behind Panther goalie Ed Belfour. Belfour spun and dove at the puck, covering it up . . . the question being whether or not he did so before it crossed the goal line. The referee waved off the goal, despite the goal judge lighting the lamp to signify a goal. After several minutes passed, during which a replay clearly showed the puck on edge crossing the line, the goal was waved off. The rest of the game was just details.

This time of year, the little victories are not often team ones, but individual ones for teams like the Caps. Chris Clark deserves congratulations for netting his 30^th goal in typical Clarkian fashion – with his back to the play, tangling with a Panther defenseman, the puck was sent off the inside of his left skate and into the Florida net. They all count, and these are the sorts that are the product of gritty play in front. If the Caps ever trade this guy, The Peerless will seek the parties responsible, find them, and beat them into a puddle of viscous goo with a Dale Hunter stick.

Steve Eminger . . . yeah, he took the penalty in overtime that led to the Panther goal – defensemen taking penalties in OT is like the cornerback in football beaten deep . . . everyone knows who did it and what the result is. But Eminger played one of his better games of the year. It is so frustrating to watch him play a game like this (well, for 61 minutes, anyway), then see him have a total brain-lock of a game. Last night, he looked like a keeper.

But in the end, it’s another loss. 2-14-6 in their last 22 games; 11-28-7 since their high-water mark in December. 78 down, four to go. Four games to get five points and surpass last year’s point total. It won’t be easy.

Why do the Caps suffer in attendance?

It is accepted as divinely inspired truth that the Capitals can't fill their rink because: a) they stink, and b) they work in a town that ranks hockey somewhere south of The Weather Channel in terms of entertainment.

Well, here is another reason, made painfully evident in last Tuesday's "home" game against the Penguins. It is 246 miles from Mellon Arena to Verizon Center.

The closest Caps "rival" in the Southeast Division -- the Carolina Hurricanes -- play in RBC Center . . . 274 miles away.

Hard to generate much in terms of rivalry -- and the attendance in each others' arenas -- with that kind of proximity. This isn't the western half of North America, where large distances between points is a fact of life. This is the Eastern Seaboard, the home of neighborhoods . . . and the rest of the Southeast ain't in the neighborhood.

The Serious Six -- March 30th

The “six” are bunching up. Three points separate six teams, and all have played 77 games, save for the New York Islanders (76). And this weekend would seem likely to send a team or two spiraling out of contention. Five teams will play back-to-back games; only Carolina escapes that fate – they have Friday/Sunday games.

Today’s theme is “potholes,” and every one of these teams has some deep ones to get across if they are to survive . . .

The Rangers sit atop the “six” with 87 points, and they’ve had superb goaltending from Henrik Lundqvist (9-1-3 in his last 13 decisions leading up to the Montreal game), but he was shelled in his last outing (four goals on 15 shots in less than 30 minutes of work)...is that the first sign that he's running out of gas?

Tampa Bay is next with 86 points/41 wins, and they are an experienced group with a Cup in their recent past. But, they’ve had goaltending issues all year. It really isn’t getting better. They’ve given up five or more goals in 7 of their last 18 games, including three of their last five. They have skill, but are prone to bouts of laziness. Atlanta's win probably forecloses any chance of an SE championship and top-three seed.

Montreal follows with 86 points/40 wins. The Canadiens are an excellent home club – 24-12-3 for the season -- but three of their last five are away from Bell Centre. And, they are heading for home leaning on a goalie with 12 games of NHL experience. He’s been more than capable – 8-4-0, 2.94, .904 – but the pressure might be on this club to score more. They are already the third highest scoring team among the “six” this year. Do they have another gear?

Toronto – next at 85 points – is an easy team to dislike, what with the seeming sense of entitlement their fans have (odd for a club with no Cups in 40 years). But they've managed to hang around on the margins for weeks. Unfortunately, though, their schedule is difficult -- Pittsburgh, at the Rangers, at the Islanders, home to finish the regular season against Montreal. Only the Flyers pose a weaker challenge in the last five.

The Islanders, with 84 points/36 wins, are almost a "feel-good" story with the hijinks in the front office before the start of the year. But they're such a chippy team, it's hard to root for them. They have a game in hand on every club in front of them, but on the other hand they're likely to lose tiebreakers on the basis of wins (they have the fewest among the six).

Carolina – 84 points/38 wins – just has never really clicked this year. Whether it's been a hangover from the long spring and Cup win, who knows? They finish up with all SE games (2 TBL, 2 FLA, 1 ATL) -- they are a combined 12-5-2 against those teams this year, so that's in their favor. But three teams to climb over with five games left? They probably need four wins -- minimum -- to do that. They've had at least four wins in five games three times this year.

Two games this weekend involve “four-point games” – games pitting two of the “six” against each other:

Tampa Bay at Carolina, tonight

Toronto at New York Rangers, Sunday

Carolina is in virtually a “must-win” situation. A loss would leave them sixth among these teams and two points (plus a tiebreaker on the basis of wins) behind Montreal and Tampa Bay with four games to play.

Toronto’s “must-win” status is largely a function of how they fare in the Saturday game against Pittsburgh. If the Maple Leafs can win that one, the Ranger game might not appear as daunting a task.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, March 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

That’s right, boys and girls, TPP is here to prognostify you to your heart’s content. Tonight, it’s the Caps heading to balmy south Florida to take on the Panthers. If you haven’t been noticing, the Panthers are teasing their fans just enough to think that there is the chance of a playoff in their near future – as in “April.” Don’t believe it. We won’t go into all the weird math as to why that’s a dim possibility, only to say that there are too may teams to climb over (four), and too few points to be had.

Florida is probably thinking, though, that here are two points ripe for the plucking. And, based on the season series this year, one would be inclined to agree. After winning the first two games of the season set by a combined score of 9-3, the Caps have dropped the last four and have been outscored 22-12 (not including a shootout result) in the process.

If there is a theme to the Panthers over their last ten games, it is “doin’ the two-step.” They’ve alternated two wins with two losses throughout this last ten-game stretch (6-3-1, to be precise), and seeing how they are coming off two wins, you’d think the Caps are in position for a win.

Florida has outscored its opponents by a 33-28 margin in their last ten games, and while that’s not bad, their power play certainly has been – 2-for-32 (6.3 percent). If there is a glimmer of promise on that score, those two goals were scored in the Panthers’ last two games (one in each, if you’re too lazy to do the arithmetic). The penalty kill has, in comparison, been positively fabulous (39-for-46, 84.8 percent). Trouble is, Florida is second in the league in most short-handed situations faced.

Olli Jokinen is the embodiment of “hot” (no, not his looks, unless you like that mug-shot of a deranged menace look). Ove his last ten games, he is 7-9-16, +11. That’s a good month for a lot of people; Jokinen did it in less than three weeks.

Nathan Horton has chipped in another six goals (6-1-7, +1), and Josef Stumpel has gone 4-4-8, +4, to fall into second among the Panthers’ scoring over the last ten games.

Ed Belfour is no the man in goal. He’s figured in nine decisions in the last ten games and is 5-3-1, but has offered up a 3.42 GAA and a .891 save percentage, neither of which calls to mind Ken Dryden.

For the Caps, let’s face it . . . there are all sorts of factors pointing south for this contest. There is their record against Florida this year . . . then there is the fact that there is little to play for, not even really a spoiler angle . . . the Caps are 2-7-1 in their last ten . . . they’ve lost by three or more goals in half of their last 12 games . . . Alex Ovechkin is a very long shot to get 50 goals (if you’re into individual statistics) . . . and, it’s south Florida (pass the sun block).

Nevertheless, there are guys playing now who are auditioning for a spot on next year’s roster. In a sense, they are auditioning to keep playing in the NHL, if you concur with the argument that if a guy can’t make this club, he’d have trouble latching onto another roster.

It is with that in mind that The Peerless is averting his eyes and typing . . .

Caps 5 – Panthers 4.

The Serious Six -- March 29th

With the weekend looming, the serious six are heading into the far turn before heading into next week’s home stretch. At the moment, they stand in this order:

6. NY Rangers: 39-29-9 (87)
7. Tampa Bay: 41-32-4 (86)
8. Montreal: 40-31-6 (86)
**********
9. Toronto: 37-29-10 (84)
10. NY Islanders: 36-28-12 (84)
11. Carolina: 38-31-8 (84)

Montreal jumped two spots since our last installment to climb on-board the top-eight, while Carolina has fallen to the bottom of this six-pack. The Islanders and Toronto each have a game in hand on the rest of the field.

Tonight’s impact game:

Toronto at Atlanta. The Leafs have the opportunity to make up some ground with the game in hand they hold over each of the clubs in front of them. Tonight’s game closes the season series between these two clubs, one that the Thrashers lead, 2-1. Toronto has dropped the last two games to Atlanta by a combined score of 10-2. Atlanta has the added incentive of trying to hold on the three-seed as leader of the Southeast Division. Holding only a three-point lead over Tampa Bay, Atlanta could fall to the seven-seed (if not lower) if they fall behind the Lightning. The Thrashers could, by virtue of losing, turn this into a "sprinting seven" in the last week.

The Leafs have won their last two in convincing fashion – 4-1 over Buffalo and 6-1 over Carolina. However, they haven’t won a road game since March 2 (4-3 in a shootout over New Jersey), and haven’t won one in regulation since February 24^th (5-2 over the Flyers). That 0-4-2 in road games since that Flyer win is a telling statistic, especially since the Thrashers are 7-1-0 in their last eight home games.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Penguins

Never in it. Even with a two-goal lead, one had the feeling they were never in it. Of course, then the Penguins scored three power play goals and scored another goal just as another penalty was expiring. To make things worse, the Caps – down two goals in the third period, mind you – played as if they thought the puck would magically appear in the net behind Marc-Andre Fleury without the need of having been shot.

Two goals down in the third period, they managed one shot – one – not taken by Alex Ovechkin between a shot by Mike Green at 10:24 and a cosmetic goal by Milan Jurcina with 32 seconds left. And Green’s came from the concession stands.

The frustrating part is that the Caps were the better team at even strength, but had not a clue what they were doing on the penalty kill. For all intents and purposes, the Penguins scored on their first four power plays and that, kids, was the ball game.

We could go on, but frankly . . . why? Ovechkin came to play, Chris Clark came to play, and Olaf Kolzig did what he could. The rest? It wasn’t pretty. It was a game they could have – should have – won. But that’s what teams in the Caps’ position (well, their fans) say at this time of year.

The Serious Six -- March 27th

Big day for the six. All of them are in action, so there can be considerable movement among the clubs, which stand at the moment as follows:

6. NY Rangers: 39-28-9 (87)
7. Tampa Bay: 41-31-4 (86)
8. Carolina: 38-29-8 (84)
**********
9. NY Islanders: 36-27-12 (84)
10. Montreal: 39-31-6 (84)
11. Toronto: 36-29-10 (82)

Here are the impact games:

Carolina at Toronto. This qualifies as a “must win” for the Maple Leafs. Not only is Carolina a club the Maple Leafs have to climb over, it is a chance to take advantage of some home cooking. The trouble is, Toronto is 13^th among 15 teams in the East in home winning percentage (17-15-5), and they’ve been inconsistent on defense – five games giving up two or fewer goals, three of giving up five or more goals in the last ten contests. But, they do have the edge in the season series, 2-1, taking the lead with a 4-1 win in Carolina on January 30. For the Leafs, the player to watch might be Nik Antropov – seven goals in his last 11 games (7-3-10, +4). And, the Leafs have scored a power play goal in each of their last five games.

Carolina, looking to gain a stronger foothold on the eighth spot, is 6-3-1 in their last ten and is on an offensive tear of late with 17 goals in their last three games. The defense hasn’t been shabby, either, having held opponents to three or fewer goals in nine of the last ten games. Carolina has benefited from balanced goal scoring, with 15 skaters chipping in for the 30 goals scored over the last ten games. Scott Walker and Andrew Ladd lead the way with four each.

The key . . . Toronto’s power play against Carolina’s penalty killing. Carolina has killed 56 of 60 shorthanded situations dating back to February 15^th. Toronto has power play goals in their last five games. Who blinks?

NY Rangers at Montreal. Montreal has won six of seven to climb back into the race for the last playoff slots. They’ve scored 25 goals in those seven games, but the key – as it often is this time of year – has been defense. In the six wins they gave up three or fewer goals; in the loss they yielded six. The ominous sign for the Canadiens is that they have not beaten the Rangers in either of the previous two contests this year. But Montreal is among the better teams in the East in home record (4^th – 23-12-3). Guillaume Latendresse leads the way with four goals in the last seven games; four other players have three.

For the Rangers, “hot” is not an appropriate description. They‘ve lost one game in regulation in their last 14 (10-1-3). Leading the way is goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, who has gotten the call in 13 of those last 14 games, going 9-1-3. It isn’t a fluke, either. 1.27, .954, and three shutouts -- he’s been the man for the Blueshirts over the last month.

The key . . . again, it’s special teams. Montreal is 21.1 percent on the power play over their last seven games (8-for-28); the Rangers at 92.5 percent on the penalty kill (37-for-40). But Lundqvist has been such a rock in goal the last month, it would be hard to pick against the Rangers.

New Jersey at NY Islanders. After winning five of six, the Islanders are showing signs of slipping. They are 3-4-3 in their last ten, and they’ve had what one could call one “quality” win against a playoff-caliber opponent over the last month (3-1 over Pittsburgh on March 22^nd). It is an odd streak, though, in that the Isles went 0-3-1 in the middle of this ten-game run by a combined score of 22-13. In the other six games, they’ve given up only 11 goals. Worse for the Islanders, they haven’t had much success against the Devils this year (who has?). They are 1-4-1 in the season series and have only scored nine goals in the process, five of those in the first meeting of the year on November 2nd. They’ve been shutout three times.

Florida at Tampa Bay. Tampa has slipped a notch in the last ten, going 4-6-0. They’ve been all over the place in doing it. They can muster up a 3-2 overtime win in Calgary or a 3-1 win against the Devils, but then they also can stub their toe on Florida (6-4) and Washington (7-1). The offense has been consistently weak (23 goals in ten games, only once scoring more than three in a contest), and they’ve given up five or more goals in four of those games. The Lightning are 3-1-1 against the Panthers this year, but the one loss was a 6-2 drubbing in the last meeting on March 3^rd. Goaltending has become a serious – well, a more serious – issue for the Bolts. Johan Holmqvist, who started well by winning eight of his first 11 decisions this year (he also has an 11-for-13 run this year), is 4-3-2 in his last ten appearances (including one no-decision), 3.72, .852. That isn’t likely to get it done. Marc Denis hasn’t exactly inspired any more confidence with a season-long GAA over 3.00 and save percentage below .900. If that situation doesn’t improve – soon – Tampa Bay might hang on to a playoff spot, but they wouldn’t be a betting choice to pull an upset in the first round.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, March 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, it’s the eighth episode of “The Alex and Sid Show,” the adventures of two rascally youngsters who skate their way over, around, and through their elders as they work their way to the playoffs.

Oops . . . only one of our title characters gets to go to the playoffs this year. That would be Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins who will skate into Verizon Center with the best record in the NHL in calendar year 2007 (27-8-4). The Penguins who can clinch their first playoff appearance since Jaromir Jagr wore the black and gold.

In a series of streaks of success that has marked 2007, the Penguins are on a 9-2-1 run in their last dozen games. The Caps, meanwhile, are 2-8-2 in their last dozen. Some more of the particulars:

Record:

Pittsburgh: 9-2-1
Washington: 2-8-2

Goals For/Goals Against:

Pittsburgh: 38/28
Washington: 31/43

Power Play:

Pittsburgh: 11/58 (19.0%)
Washington: 8/56 (14.3%)

Penalty Kill:

Pittsburgh: 51/59 (86.4%)
Washington: 53/62 (80.7%)

We could go on, but the song remains the same. The thing about Pittsburgh has not been their constants. Sidney Crosby is 7-6-13, -2, in the last 12 games. Evgeni Malkin is 3-8-11, +3. Sergei Gonchar is 2-9-11, +2. OK, one expects that kind of performance. It’s the other guys who step up. This dozen game contribution has come courtesy of Erik Christensen, who is 5-3-8, +5. It has gone a long way to easing the burden on the Penguins of Mark Recchi not scoring a goal since February 19^th (17 games).

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury has been consistent, to a degree. With the exception of his last outing – a 5-0 shutout of Boston – he’s been Mr. Three-Goal-a-Night. Whether it’s been giving up three in a 4-3 shootout loss to the Devils, or three on seven shots in 20 minutes of work in a no-decision against Ottawa, Fleury has given up three goals in six of his last nine appearances.

For the Caps and their last dozen games, The Alexes and Chris Clark have accounted for more than half of the goals scored (16 of 31). Nine skaters account for the other 15 goals, and Tomas Fleischmann has three of those. There just aren’t many contributions coming from the rest of the roster, offensively speaking.

On the other side of the ledger, Olaf Kolzig is 2-2-1 since his return from a knee injury, over which he has a 2.76 GAA and .921 save percentage. But, this is a team against which he’s struggled over his career (12-17-4-1, 3.37, .880).

The Penguins are gearing up for a long spring on the ice, the Caps (well, some of them) are thinking ahead to the Worlds. The issue hanging over the ice is the fact that the Penguins can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight. So, for the Caps the idea is, “not on our ice.” With Fleury giving up threes regularly, it says here the key is Kolzig.

Caps 3 – Penguins 2.

The Serious Six -- March 26

And here is how they stand this morning . . .

6. NY Rangers: 39-28-9 (87)
7. Tampa Bay: 41-31-4 (86)
8. Carolina: 38-29-8 (84)
**********
9. NY Islanders: 36-27-12 (84)
10. Montreal: 39-31-6 (84)
11. Toronto: 36-29-10 (82)

The Rangers leapfrogged Tampa Bay with a 2-1 overtime win over the Islanders yesterday, and the lost point kept the Isles from moving into the top eight over idle Carolina.

Henrik Lundqvist stopped 34 of 35 shots to get the win and the game’s first star. It was the third straight 2-1 victory over the Islanders by the Rangers, the difference this time being that Petr Prucha did not have the game-winner as he did in the previous two meetings. Michael Nylander netted the winner on a redirect of a feed by Brendan Shanahan in the last minute of the extra session to send the Rangers home winners.

Impact games today: none (all teams idle).

As the six teams take a breather, what lies ahead? If you were to look at the schedules, it appears Tampa Bay has the easiest road to the top-eight. Among their seven remaining games, four are at home (although the Lightning have a rather ordinary 20-16-1 home record). Moreover, the Lightning have three remaining games against also-rans – two against Florida, one against Washington (8-4-1 against those teams this year).

The Islanders might have the hardest row to hoe here. Four of their remaining seven games are at home, where they have been moderately successful (20-11-6, eighth in the East in home record), but five games come against teams higher in the standings (6-10-3 against these teams). The Islanders are the only club in the Serious Six that have a below-.500 record this season against their remaining opponents.

The Serious Six

The Serious Six . . .

That’s where it’s at in the NHL now – the last three spots in the Eastern Conference are up from grabs, and six clubs are separated by four points in an effort to claim them. And, there are only a handful of games left in which to stake those claims. Starting with today’s results, we’re going to try to take a look at these teams as they sprint to the finish – who’s up, who’s down, who has the advantage.

This afternoon, as play begins, they stand this way:

6. Tampa Bay: 41-31-4 (86)
7. NY Rangers: 38-28-9 (85)
8. Carolina: 38-29-8 (84)
**********
9. Montreal: 39-31-6 (84)
10. NY Islanders: 36-27-11 (83)
11. Toronto: 36-29-10 (82)

Today’s impact games:

NY Rangers @ NY Islanders

The Rangers are 2-4 against the Isles this year but have won the last two contests (both by 2-1 margins). Henrik Lundqvist has only one loss in regulation in his last 12 decisions (8-1-3).

Sometimes, you just want to scream, "shut the #@%& up!!!"

I returned from my sojourn to Pennsylvania this weekend and took a peek at what's going on over on The Official . . . and I was pointed to this by a poster over there, comments courtesy of The Blogger in Charge:

"See any free agents that were signed last off season above Alex Semin in goals scored? I don't."

Look, I think building through the draft is the way to go as far as developing a sustained contender goes. The ability to churn young contributors through your system year after year is the most reliable, not to mention cheapest way to do that in a salary capped world. But at some point, kids need mentoring. Once upon a time, I taught at a university. I would never think of just throwing the textbooks into the room and telling the kids, "read 'em. I'll be back in 15 weeks to give you a test."

Sometimes, only the lessons learned by guys who have been through it can be the difference in making sure your kids maximize their potential or become merely journeyman hockey players. This summer, as far as I can see, is the "no excuses" summer. And this has all the makings of a pre-emptive excuse for doing not much (please, let me be wrong...).

Look, if I wanted fantasy hockey, I would have bought NHL2007, cancelled my subscription for season tickets, bought a big-screen TV, and saved myself a lot of angst.

So, I'll pose a question in rebuttal . . .

See any playoff games for the Caps this spring? . . . I don't.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Candiens, March 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Seventy-five down, seven to go. We’re a long way from Ashburn and September, aren’t we? The Caps have seven games to garner six points and pass last year’s 70 standings points. Frankly, with the way this season has gone, that would be something of an achievement. Tonight, the Caps embark on those last seven games with a visit to Montreal to take on the Canadiens.

This is the story of two teams having taken similar roads. The Caps were a playoff-bound team in mid-December, and their fall from that lofty status has been well chronicled and painfully experienced by Caps fans. Montreal’s fall has not been as abrupt, but might have a similar result – an early tee time in April. The Canadiens’ high water mark came on December 27^th when they defeated the Capitals, 4-1. The win left them with a record of 22-9-5, and the 13 games over .500 matched their high point of the year. Since then, the Canadiens are 16-22-1, which leaves them 38-31-6 and in ninth place this morning with 82 points.

Montreal has made a game of it lately, though, with a 5-1-0 record in their last six games during which opponents have been outscored 21-17. The Habs’ special teams have stepped up here, going 20.0 percent on the power play (7-for-35) and 88.9 percent on the penalty kill (16-for-18). That the Canadiens have been outscored 15-14 in situations that weren’t “special” could be a key to this game for Washington.

In this 5-1 run, Montreal has been led in overall scoring by center Tomas Plekanec (2-6-8, +3), but the goal scoring load has been taken up by a couple of kids – 19-year old Guillaume Latendresse (4-0-4, -1) and 23-year old Chris Higgins (3-4-7, +1).

In goal, Cristobal Huet put up some fine numbers through mid-February (18-15-3, 2.74, .918) but has been on the shelf since suffering a hamstring injury against the Devils on Valentine’s Day. David Aebischer was given the chance to take up the slack, but he’s gone 3-3-0, 4.62, .870. Not good. Enter Jaroslav Halak. He’s been 6-4-0 in his ten games of work since Huet’s injury and has won his last three, including a 30-save shutout of Boston. For now, he’s the guy.

Fans should watch for how the game unfolds in its latter stages. Over the last six games, Montreal has been outscored 6-4 in the first period, but they have closed with a rush, outscoring opponents 8-4 in the second, 9-7 in the third. The second period, which has been something of a bugaboo for the Caps this year, should be watched carefully. Montreal has scored in the second frame in each of the last six games.

The Caps are 0-5-1 in their last six road contests and have been outscored 24-12. It’s not like the games have even had much in terms of real drama to them. Even the 4-3 shootout loss to Boston was disappointing in that the Caps coughed up a 3-0 lead in doing so. But it is another chance to play spoiler on one of the big stages in North American hockey. Olaf Kolzig – who should get the call in goal, tonight – has had considerable career success against the Habs: 15-11-3-1, 2.30, .922. Among the skaters, Alexander Semin has five goals in five career games against Montreal.

The Caps have to find a way to hold leads in the third period. In two of their last three losses, they’ve been unable to do so, and given Montreal’s recent record in the latter part of games, this is a concern. So, that means getting out to a big lead early, which is where Kolzig and Semin come in. That seems to be what to watch for, and they will be the ingredients for a win:

Caps 5 – Canadiens 1.