The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s a marquee matchup, as Wes Johnson might say, between teams 1 and 1A in the Southeast Division as the Caps visit Raleigh, North Carolina, to take on the Hurricanes.

We were doing some research on hockey and North Carolina, and we compiled from hockeydb.com this list of players born in the Tar Heel State to suit up for a National Hockey League team…

…ok, so it’s not a long list. Perhaps it’s the lack of ice in those parts, and maybe it’s just the predilection for eating large amounts of pig. We were wondering about preparing pig in the North Carolina way and were looking for a culinary expert to give us some tips, but all we could come up with was The Swedish Chef, who we’ve learned is quite a hockey fan. We sat down with the chef (and Nicklas Backstrom, who served as interpreter) to get his take on the Caps, the Hurricanes, and tonight’s matchup…



Chef, It’s a pleasure to meet you…

“Leekooise-a I'm soore-a (Likewise, I’m sure).”

Chef, have you had a chance to watch any Caps games this year, and if you have, what has impressed you the most?

“I'fe-a seee a cuoople-a gemes, und I reelly leeke-a thees gooy reeght here-a. (I’ve seen a couple of games, and I really like [Backstrom]).”

Well, Nicklas looks like he’s about to break out; he’s put together a string of good games, even though he hasn’t shown up a lot on the score sheet. He’s had six assists in nine career games against the Hurricanes, but hasn’t netted a goal himself. Think he will tonight?

“Ooh, ebsulootely (oh, absolutely).”

Speaking of the Hurricanes, they had one taken away from them late in the game last Thursday. What’s your take on the home team?

“I lufe-a zeeur mescut (I love their mascot).”

You love their mascot?

“Yeeh, veet feeneger sooce-a und cule-a slev (yeah, with vinegar sauce and cole slaw).”

Chef, I’ve always wanted to ask you…the lyrics you used to sing in the intro to your cooking show…what do they mean?

"Yorn desh born, der ritt de gitt der gue, Orn desh, dee born desh, de umn børk! børk! børk! (five on four, and still you cannot score…why don’t you just try to SHOOT THE DAMN PUCK?)"

Really?...well there’s a scoop, I guess. Chef, the Caps are coming into this game atop the Southeast Division and…

"Surry, boot I hefe-a tu cetch a plune-a. Hur kommer jag till flygplatsen?"

Well, we’ll let Professor Backstrom take care of that…As for the game, this contest reunites the contestants of last Thursday in a game the Caps won, 3-2, in what has to be regarded as a heist that would make Willie Sutton proud. Not much has happened since then to alter our take from the game six days ago, but here are some things to think about…

Carolina is 1-1 in two games since the game on November 6th, both in Raleigh. They scored only four goals in doing so, beating Ottawa, 2-1, then losing to Atlanta, 5-2. What is odd about the results is that it was Michael Leighton posting the win in the nets and allowing only one goal to the high-powered Senators, and Cam Ward getting lit up by the Thrashers for five goals (four of them on nine shots in a brutal second period).

Eric Staal will be entering the game without a point in his last four games. His brother, Jordan, had a hat trick and four points last night against Detroit. If brotherly competition has meaning, Staal will be someone to watch.

Rod Brind’Amour is dead last in plus-minus in the NHL (-13) and is on pace to go -71.

Sergei Samsonov seems to want to keep Brind’Amour company. He’s minus-5 in his last six games and is minus-8 overall (11th worst in the league). At least Brind’Amour has 10 points. Samsonov has three.

The Caps have had 22 skaters dress this year. Of that number, 21 have points. Only Chris Bourque, who played in only one game, does not have a point.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Tim Gleason

You might think, sure, the Hurricane blueliner could get the assignment of defending when Alex Ovechkin is on the ice, and perhaps that’s true. But there is an odd statistic about Gleason that bears noting. He has six assists on the season (no goals), and five of them have come in the Hurricanes’ six home games. OK, three of them were on opening night, but still. Actually we point out Gleason to note a broader point. Carolina defensemen are 8-32-40 this year (by comparison, Caps defensemen are 9-17-26). The 5-2 loss to Atlanta ended an eight-game streak in which defensemen registered at least one point. Over that stretch, Hurricane defensemen were 6-14-20 (the Hurricanes had a total of 22 goals in those games). If the Hurricane defense is fully integrated into the offense tonight, it could make for a difficult night for the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

OK, Ovechkin broke the nine-game streak without a goal. He still does not have a goal on the road this year. But here’s the thing – Ovechkin has had nine instances of going without a goal in four or more games in his career. Generally, he’s emerged from them with a vengeance (streaks and aftermath)…

Nov. 19-Dec. 1, 2005 (six games): three goals in three games
Jan. 26-Feb. 7, 2006 (five games): eight goals in seven games
Mar. 30-Apr. 8, 2006 (six games): four goals in four games
Dec. 29, 2006-Jan. 4, 2007 (five games): three goals in two games
Feb. 3-8, 2007 (four games): one goal in one game
Feb. 15-24, 2007 (five games): four goals in three games
Mar. 15-21, 2007 (four games): two goals in one game
Mar. 24-31, 2007 (four games): three goals in two games
Feb. 15-27, 2008 (seven games): six goals in three games

Ovechkin has 17 goals in 25 career games against Carolina, ten of them in Raleigh. As if he wouldn’t command enough attention, he now has the burden of a streak lifted and is going into a rink where he’s had a lot of success. This could be a big night.

Washington is 4-7-1 in Carolina since the lockout. They were outscored 17-8 in four games last year in Raleigh (1-3-0). The Caps can’t let the Hurricanes get off fast. That’s a recipe to get swamped in Carolina. But, given the way that Brent Johnson has played and, just as important, how his teammates have been playing in front of him, the Caps certainly have it in them to reverse that trend. If you’ve been reading this space for any length of time, you know that we think they will…

Caps 5 – Hurricanes 3

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

Did you know that...

-- This is the best Capitals record (8-4-2) after 14 games since the 1995-1996 season, when they started 9-5-0.

-- The Caps have scored 42 goals through 14 games. Last year, they did not score their 42nd goal until game 19, also against Tampa Bay. The Caps lost that one, 5-2. Olaf Kolzig lost that game, too. (edit: oops, not he didn't...Brent Johnson did).

-- The Caps have allowed 40 goals through 14 games (not including Gimmicks). Last year after 14 games?...40.

-- The 8-4-2 record puts the Caps on a pace for 47-23-12 (106 points). Think Caps fans would like that regular season result?

-- Three teams have two players ranked in the top-ten in plus-minus: Boston, Chicago, and Washington. The Caps are the only team with two Alexes in that group (Semin, ranked first, and Ovechkin, tied for sixth).

-- Speaking of Ovechkin, he is tied for eighth in hits among forwards, despite his having missed two games.

-- Mike Green is picking up where he left off. He's tied for second among defensemen in goals scored.

-- Alexander Semin has a 24.4 percent shooting percentage. Picking his spots well, or not taking enough shots? Discuss.

Veterans Day 2008

"To us in America, the reflections of Armistice Day will be filled with solemn pride in the heroism of those who died in the country’s service and with gratitude for the victory, both because of the thing from which it has freed us and because of the opportunity it has given America to show her sympathy with peace and justice in the councils of the nations…"

And with that, President Woodrow Wilson proclaimed November 11, 1919, as the first “Armistice Day.” Seven years later, Congress would adopt a resolution to direct the President to issue an annual proclamation calling upon all Americans to observe “Armistice Day” in the United States. Armistice Day would become a Federal holiday in 1938, and the name “Armisctic Day” would become “Veterans Day” in 1954.

While it has become something of a commercial event like other Federal holidays, it is an opportunity for Americans to remember the contributions that military veterans have made to ensure the blessings of liberty that Americans have enjoyed in the 89 years since Wilson’s declaration.

But in addition to remembrances of the contributions of those many veterans, it seems as worthy to remember the contributions of the families of those veterans, those mothers and fathers, brothers and sisters, sons and daughters who have sacrificed much – time spent apart from their loved ones, the burden of helping their wounded recover, and in laying to rest those who made the ultimate sacrifice.

To all of those who serve in uniform and their families, thank you.

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Lightning 2

I love it when a good prognostication comes together.

Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat. The Caps played about eight minutes of superior hockey tonight. The rest was, well…not. But it was good enough for a 4-2 win over Tampa Bay in Olaf Kolzig’s return to Verizon Center.

Perhaps it was the circumstances – the subplots to this game and all (Kolzig’s return, Alex Ovechkin’s goal drought, Barry Melrose behind the Lightning bench being a walking fire hazard with his mulletized look…) – and perhaps it was as Coach Bruce Boudreau alluded to after the game that it is very difficult to assemble three great periods of hockey (he suggested Melrose probably read the Lightning the riot act at the first intermission – we agree – which might have inspired the Lightning to actually look as if they cared in the second period). But for whatever reason, the Caps looked as if they could beat anyone in those eight minutes in the first period. They looked a little too ripe for the plucking in the other 52 minutes. Oh, shoot, maybe we’re just being picky.

OK, that’s out of the way. And having said that, it was a night of firsts…

-- Kolzig’s first game back in a visitors’ uniform…Steve Eminger’s too. Matt Pettinger has to wait; he was scratched for this one.

-- Eric Fehr’s first goal of the year and first hard hat for his effort.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s first goal in a month (30 days, to be precise)

-- Tom Poti’s first “goals-in-consecutive-games” streak with the Caps

-- Brent Johnson’s first “first-star-in-consecutive-games” streak with the Caps

You could say that the Caps did it with balance, and you’d be right. Eleven different players had points on the four goals, Ovechkin the only one with two, and 14 of the 18 skaters were on the plus side of the ledger (the other four being even).

But the “BOSS” line –Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Semin Score” had a good night in particular – a goal and three assists for the trio, who were also a combined plus-6 (although those five giveaways by Ovechkin get your attention, too).

We do wonder, though, at what seems almost to be the artist’s temperament of Alexander Semin. Capable of spellbinding puckhandling and a lethal shot, he’s also capable of a “whaaaaa….?” moment as when he had what looked to be a clear shot from between the top of the circles, but passed to an open wing vacated by a teammate. Good with the bad…

Eric Fehr deserved the hard hat. Yeah, he had what was credited the game winning goal, but Fehr did a lot of other things, too. A high-scoring player in junior, that part of his game hasn’t really crystallized, yet. But there he is, hustling on the forecheck, chasing down opponents, and doing a lot of the heavy puck-lugging that Viktor Kozlov might otherwise do. He had a good game.

One thing the Caps did very well tonight was to use their sticks in the passing lanes. The Lightning did not often get the chance to make cross-ice passes without a Cap stick getting in the way. Again…the little things.

And, the defense did a very good job for most of the game sweeping away rebounds and loose pucks in front of Johnson. Ok, that’s two things.

It seems rather clear to us that Vincent Lecavalier is not yet quite right. We can’t remember a game against the Caps in which he was less of a factor or more invisible.

Oh, and to those fans imploring a Cap – any Cap – to hit Martin St. Louis?...good luck. You don’t survive to be a generously listed 5’9” winger at the age of 33 in this league without having learned certain survival techniques in the land of the large.

Steven Stamkos might someday be a great player, but for the moment, he looks like a rookie. We’re reminded of the scene in the locker room in the movie, “Bull Durham,” when Crash Davis tells Nuke, “Look, Nuke--these Big League hitters are gonna light you up like a pin ball machine for awhile--don't worry about it. Be cocky and arrogant even when you're getting beat. That's the secret. You gotta play this game with fear and arrogance.”

This is a blocker. The Caps looked to be aiming over this early and often (successfully). We wonder why they more or less stopped after the first period.

Steve Eminger had just about as bad a homecoming as did Kolzig…he was on the ice for the Caps three goals in the first period.

Ryan Craig had six shots for Tampa to tie for the team lead. I swear, I don’t remember one of them.

Was that a tone-setter when Ovechkin freight-trained Vaclav Prospal less than 90 seconds in?

Donald Brashear is really showing some flash in his offensive game. The patience he displayed on setting up Tom Poti for the first goal…well, maybe he’ll be teaching Swedish before too long, too.

That’s 5-1-1 in the last five games for the Caps. But they have a hard stretch coming up – at Carolina, home and home with New Jersey, then on the road west for games at Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose, and Minnesota. Getting six of six points in this abbreviated home stand is something to build on as they undertake the next chore. Well done, boys.

Creatures of a changing routine

Most folks are creatures of routine. Those of us who don’t pull on a sweater and earn our living on the ice usually wake up, pour a cup of coffee, read the morning paper (or Google the news), drive to the train station or the bus stop or to the office, then settle in for a day on the job.

We can’t imagine athletes are any different. In fact, athletes might be more creatures of routine than thee and me. Stories of superstitions and ritual abound in the athletic sphere, but perhaps there isn’t anything more complicated than how one arranges his locker or puts on his equipment.

There are routines fans see every night at the rink, too. It all starts with how the team makes its entrance – the starting goaltender leading his club onto the ice. For a decade in MCI, now Verizon Center, the starting goaltender for the Caps on more nights than not wore the number ’37,’ and turned left as he stepped onto the ice.

Tonight, that goaltender will wear the same number, but for another team.

And, he will turn right.

Things, they do change.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, November 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Winding down after a thrilling 3-1 win over the Rangers on Saturday night, we were thumbing through the ol’ TV Guide to see what was on the tube on Sunday morning. We found an old episode of a show on PBS that was, well…illuminating…

GUEST: What started my player collection was this one right here.

APPRAISER: Oh...

GUEST: I found this one in Philly – Philadelphia.

APPRAISER: But this wasn’t really a purchase, was it?

GUEST: No, I traded for him – for a couple of draft picks, but then I signed him to a big contract -- $3.5 million, four years.

APPRAISER: You did WHAT?! OK, OK…what else have you brought?

GUEST: Well, I picked up this rather recent piece – only 28 years old – for seven years at $31.5 million. Think I got a good deal?

APPRAISER: Well, how has he performed?

GUEST: 51 points in his best year.

APPRAISER: And you’re paying $4.5 million a year?...Oh, yeah…you got a great deal (laughing). I see you have more…

GUEST: Now here’s a nice piece…rough around the edges, he’s been to five other cities before I gave him a $2.4 million contract.

APPRAISER: And he’s how old?

GUEST: 42

APPRAISER: --sigh-- What’s next?

GUEST: Well, this one has 524 career goals. I picked him up for just $1.25 million.

APPRAISER: And this one is how old?

GUEST: 40

APPRAISER: You've got all sorts of names represented, cities represented, and also time periods. You’ve got a Prospal, a Roberts, and a Recchi. You've got everything represented from the 1990s...

GUEST: Yes, I do.

APPRAISER: It's an absolutely..uh, interesting collection. Have you brought anything else?

GUEST: I have an old goaltender…more than 300 wins, been to a Stanley Cup final.

APPRAISER: OK, so how old is this one?

GUEST: 38, but it’s a young ’38.’

APPRAISER: Well, of course he is. And let me guess, you signed him to a great deal.

GUEST: Mm-hmm. $2.5 million.

APPRAISER: I see you have a collection of other pieces here…

GUEST: Oh, yes... a Vrbata, a Hall, and this delightful Meszaros…

APPRAISER: For how much?

GUEST: Oh… a little less than $30 million altogether.

APPRAISER: Please tell me you’re kidding…

GUEST: Well, no, I’m not…but all together, how many points do you think I’ll get with this collection?

APPRAISER: How many do you think?

GUEST: 95?... 100?... 105?

APPRAISER: More like 80.

GUEST: (exhales)

APPRAISER: There, there…you’re new at this, so don’t worry, you could get better at this.

GUEST: Thank you.

HOST: And thanks to our guest tonight on the Antiques Roadshow, Oren Koules. Join us next time, when we check in with the Detroit Red Wings and their collection of antique finery…


It’s the last game of the three-game home stand as the Caps host the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Caps have won the first two games of the home stand and remain unbeaten in regulation at home (5-0-1). The Lightning come to town on a 5-2-1 run and a 3-2-1 road record. Looking at the comparison of team statistics, there are a couple of numbers that stand out…


…first, 5-on-5 play. While the Caps started the year quite well in this area, it is Tampa Bay that looks to have the substantial edge here, which argues for the Lighting looking for a more loosely called game. But it’s hardly seemed to matter to the Caps whether they start well or not. In fact, they are doing slightly better in spotting the opponent a lead. That is not, however, a long-term formula for success.

These teams are experiencing something of a role reversal in the scoring numbers. The Lightning – long more of a run and gun sort of team with the likes of Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and the departed Brad Richards – is finding a way to win through goaltending and defense. Meanwhile, the Caps – a team with more of a tradition of grit and team defense – is doing it more with finesse and top-end skill, although even here their performance has been something less than folks might have expected.

What Tampa Bay does recall from their past is balance. Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Vaclav Prospal, returning to Tampa after a stint in Philadelphia, are all in double digits in points (compare that to Washington, with one player – Alexander Semin – in double digits). Lecavalier, with 6-5-11 in 13 games, is on a pace for 69 points. That would be a lower total than any season since he had 66 points in 2003-2004. Some might see that as disappointing, untll they remember that 2003-2004 was the year the Lightning won their only Stanley Cup. Lecavalier does, however, seem to come up big against the Caps. In 52 regular season games against the Caps, he is 24-27-51. The interesting stat for him might be that he has three career shorthanded goals against Washington, although it seems unlikely he’d add to that total – he’s averaging 14 seconds of shorthanded time on ice so far.

If Lecavalier has been a thorn in the side of the Caps, St. Louis has been a pain in their butt. He’s not off to a blazing start, either (3-7-10, +1), but he usually finds a way against the Caps as well. In 44 career games, he is 17-24-41, +10, with a pair of shorthanded goals of his own. He does get some time on the PK (averaging about a minute and a half a game), so that might bear watching.

But the story at forward is all the additions. Tampa Bay loaded up on imports in the off season – Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Mark Recchi, Adam Hall, Radim Vrbata. Combined, this group is 6-9-14, -4 (Vrbata missed five games with injuries). We’ll leave it to you, dear reader, to conclude whether this is the sort of production one should expect for more than $12 million in cap hit.

The Lightning have seen fit to add a number of defensemen, too. Andrej Meszaros, Lukas Krajicek, Marek Malik, Matt Carle…oops, Steve Eminger. If you’re looking for investment opportunities, think about companies that make revolving doors. Tampa seems intent on doing what it can to keep those firms going. As a group, the defense might be maligned in some quarters, but no Lightning defenseman having played more than half of their games has a minus record. Only Paul Ranger has as bad as an “even” record.

But the story for this game will be the return of former Caps Eminger, Matt Pettinger, and Olaf Kolzig. Eminger and Pettinger have played only a total of three games between them for the Lightning as in-season pick ups. However, Kolzig was signed in the off season to a one-year deal ($2.5 million) to serve as Mike Smith’s backup and mentor. Kolzig, who seems likely to get the nod on Monday, has performed well in his own right. In three games, he is 1-1-1, 2,67, .925. His performance in each of the games he’s played – against the Rangers, Sabres, and Islanders – serves as a possible indicator of what to expect on Monday night. Against the Rangers and Sabres – two teams with a combined record of 19-8-4 – Kolzig stopped 66 of 70 shots (.943 save percentage) in posting a win and a loss. Against the Islanders, he gave up four goals on 36 shots, the last of which came in overtime after he badly misplayed the puck behind his own net.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos

The top overall pick of the 2008 amateur draft has found the early games of his career somewhat difficult. Stamkos is 2-2-4, -3, in 13 games. However, aside from a 2-1-3, +2 effort against Buffalo, he is 0-1-1, -5 in 12 other games. The Calder favorite is tied for 22nd among rookie scorers, but it hasn’t been a product of shyness. He is tied for the lead among rookies in shots taken (although his total of 30 would be tied for 127th in the league).

Washington: David Steckel

Steckel has seven goals in 89 career games in the NHL. Four of them have come at the expense of the Lightning in seven career games. He was 3-3-6, +3, in the last three games he played against the Lightning last year. But he’s in this as much to keep a sputtering Tampa Bay offense (2.15 goals a game) sputtering some more. As a defensive specialist, he would likely get a chance to skate against Vincent Lecavalier. Steckel could be important to stopping Lecavalier and his teammates when they have the puck, and in keeping them from getting it in the first place. Despite his considerable skills, Lecavalier is not an especially gifted faceoff man. Steckel has won 56.5 percent of his 108 draws taken.

The Caps were 6-2-0 against the Lightning last year, including 5-0-0 in their last five meetings. However, four of those wins were of the one-goal variety, so even last year, the differences between the clubs wasn’t all that stark. Tampa is, at least on paper, a better team than last year, and they have players with more than a little incentive to renew acquaintances in a special way. But the Caps appear to be emerging from the 2-3-2 funk they were in from October 18th – November 4th. And, they’re doing it with defense and goaltending (four goals allowed in the last three games). That’s a recipe for an unfriendly homecoming for Olie the Goalie…

Washington 4 – Tampa Bay 2

Quick!...Somebody call the WAAAAAAAAAA-mbulance

Oh, the injustice! One commentator's indignation over last night's events...

"The Caps were engaged from the outset, crashing both the net and the netminder with impunity..."

"It was Michael Nylander early who landed atop Lundqvist, and it was Alexander Semin later who barreled into him, an act egregious enough to prompt the goaltender to chase referee Dan Marouelli when no call was made."

"It did not help when Tom Poti scored the 2-0 goal less than a half-minute after Semin had crushed the King on his crown, sending the puck into the net after one of the pegs had come off its moorings. The decision by video review in Toronto to allow the goal to stand was as questionable as Marouelli's decision not to penalize Semin."

"It was pretty clear that a penalty should have been called. It was also pretty clear that the Caps had little regard for the Rangers' ability to deter such behavior..."

No one does "we wuz robbed" like Larry Brooks.

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Rangers 1

Well, well…wasn’t that a whole bucket o’ fun?

The Caps beat the Rangers on Saturday night, 3-1, before a crowd of 17,948 at Verizon Center. The game had a bit of a playoff air to it with a lot of up-and-down play, a pair of excellent goaltending performances, and the kind of ugly goals that the Caps need to see more of.

Brooks Laich got his ugly on in the first period with a strange power play goal, the puck taking more turns and more ricochet’s than you’d see in a cartoon gunfight. Alexander Semin sent a drive that Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist got a piece of. The puck sailed off the glass behind Lundqvist and bounced all the way back to bounce off the cross bar behind Lundqvist. The puck then bounded off Lundqvist’s mask where Brooks Laich swept it into the net out of mid air past the bewildered goalie. The play was reviewed to ensure that Laich did not strike the puck with a high stick, and the goal stood.

The second goal was credited to Tom Poti, but the hero of the play was Boyd Gordon. Gordon collected the puck on the left side and skated in. Dmitri Kalinin tried to angle Gordon off the puck, but the winger dipped his shoulder, got leverage, and worked his way in to Lundqvist. The puck trickled off Gordon’s stick before he could complete a deke, and it squirted to Lundqvist’s left. Tom Poti jumped in and lifted the puck past the sprawled Lundqvist, and the lead was two. This play also was reviewed to determine if the right post (away from the play) had been lifted off its peg before the puck crossed the goal line. The review confirmed the goal, and the Caps took a two-goal lead into intermission.

The Rangers made things interesting in the third as Aaron Voros scored a goal on Caps goalie Brent Johnson’s short side, the puck apparently tipped ever so slightly by Tom Poti’s stick. From there, it was a case of the Caps closing down the Rangers, making it difficult for the visitors to even exit their own zone with any comfort. As the clock was ticking down to two minutes, though, Alexander Semin had a brain cramp and took a tripping call when he got his stick into Scott Gomez’ skates. Strangely, the Rangers let almost the entire two minutes of the power play burn off before pulling Lundqvist to get a 6-on-4 advantage. By the time the Rangers went for the second extra man, the effort needed to finish off the penalty kill was not as great, and six seconds after the power play expired – with Lundqvist now on the bench – Semin redeemed himself by picking up a loose puck in the right wing faceoff circle, spinning, and firing a length-of-the-rink wrist shot into the heart of the Ranger net to complete the scoring.

Some things we saw…

This was the most complete game the Caps played since beating Vancouver in the third game of the season. In all three zones, the Caps dominated play. Especially on the forecheck, they made life difficult for the Rangers exiting their end. They did not allow Nikolai Zherdev, Markus Naslund, Scott Gomez, or Chris Drury to gather any momentum skating through the neutral zone. Rarely did the Rangers enter the Capitals’ zone under control of the puck, and once in, often found themselves chasing the puck right back out of the zone.

Hey Brandon Dubinsky…show up early for practice tomorrow. You’re doing faceoff drills. One-for-13 ain’t gonna get it done.

How good was the Caps defense? OK, here it is…Wade Redden and Ryan Callahan led the Rangers with four shots apiece. If those two are leading the team in shots in this game? I like the Caps’ chances. Nikolai Zherdev, Markus Naslund, Brandon Dubinsky, and Scott Gomez – the Rangers’ top four scorers – had a total of six shots among them. OK… now I really like the Caps’ chances.

OK, Ovechkin didn’t have a point, and he’s become so frustrated, it seems, that he’s taken to celebrating goals before they are goals…but he is this close. If not for the sterling play of Lundqvist (and if we’re picking sides for pick up hockey, I take him as my goalie), Ovechkin has at least a pair of goals (the ones he “celebrated”).

Speaking of Ovechkin, we suspect there will be a call from one brother to another…”hey, Eric…does he hit guys like that all the time?”…”yeah, Marc, he does…all the time.”

We’re starting to say this more often, but Nicklas Backstrom had his best game of the year. From controlling the puck, to finding the open man, to standing up to physical play, he had a very good game. And he almost headed in the puck on the goal scored by Laich. And there he was, in the middle of a scrum coming to the aid of Brent Johnson when the Rangers were taking some liberties. He will, however, perhaps see Lundqvist in his sleep after having three whacks at the puck with Lundqvist down and out on the doorstep with only his glove to save him.

Tomas Fleischmann isn’t going to deliver many hits or take many without giving up the puck, it seems, but he can be fairly described as “shifty.” On many an occasion this evening, he was lined up by a Ranger and managed to duck out of trouble with the puck.

Tyler Sloan had a fine game by keeping things simple. In his own zone, it was “get the puck, clear the puck.” No muss, no fuss.

Once again…no penalty killing time for Ovechkin. Is it us, or does he look fresher as a result?

As if it needs saying, Brent Johnson is in a zone. He is now fifth in goals against and tied for fifth in save percentage. Since losing in relief in the season opener in Atlanta, he’s 3-0-2, 1.75, .942. What goalie controversy?

It gets more than a little tiring hearing fans yelling at Jeff Schultz every time he gets within a stick length of someone, “hit him, Schultz!” Here’s a guy who played more than 19 minutes, recorded an assist, and blocked a couple of shots. He was on the ice for the Rangers’ power play goal, but he wasn’t in the vicinity of the play when the puck was shot. He was busy defending his man on the other side.

We heard on the radio after the game that John Erskine won the “hard hat” for this one. He deserved it. It was his best game of the year, too.

And, if Erskine gets the “hard hat,” Brooks Laich gets the “tool belt.” He has a solid game all around tonight. A goal, tied for the team lead in shots, a couple of hits in 16:30 of work.

This was a good test for the Caps, given that the Rangers – and especially Lundqvist – have played solid hockey for just about all of the early going. That they got a pair of goals by sheer will – Laich and Backstrom driving to the net on the first, Gordon bulling his way in with Poti jumping into the play on the other – is an encouraging sign. But it can’t be a one-time thing. Tampa Bay comes to town on Monday, and they are 5-2-1 after starting the year 0-2-3. And, the Capitals alumni club of Olaf Kolzig, Matt Pettinger, and Steve Eminger will be looking to take a measure of bragging rights.

But tonight, this was a game well-played against a quality opponent. Well done, boys.

Varlamov records first shutout

Simeon Varlamov returned to the Hershey Bears from the injury list in a big way last night, blanking the Albany River Rats, 3-0, for his first career shutout in the AHL. For more, check out Hershey Bears Hockey, John Walton Hockey, Derek Meluzio at Stack the Pads, the Patriot-News report on the game, and of course, the the Bears' website.

It doesn't get easier for the Bears. They're at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton tonight and at Bridgeport tomorrow for the next two games of a five-game road swing.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, November 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Hockey Night on Fun Street as the Caps entertain…host…lay out a spread of tea and cucumber sandwiches…what’s the word?...thwart?...annihilate the New York Rangers?...well, we’ll get to that. But The Peerless, being something of a political junkie, understands that in these few days since the election in the United States there are a group of people who are heartbroken, crestfallen, and just in a funk about what to do next.

No, we’re not talking about McCain/Palin supporters, we’re talking pundits! What do these folks do, now that there is no need for their pontificating, their white boards, their touch screens, and their practiced indignation? As part of our effort to care for this forgotten class, we’ve invited a few to join us for their take on the game…Chris Matthews of MSNBC’s “Hardball”…you’re an east coast guy – born in Philly and all that. You must have grown up with hockey…the Caps are at home to the Rangers tonight. Any thoughts on what the Caps need to do tonight?

“I know one thing: There are a billion Islamic people in the world today, and there will be about 2 billion by the time we're dead. They're not going to give up their religion just because the Rangers are coming to town.”

Well, the Rangers are coming to town as the top team in the East, you’d have to think they’d be the favorite in this one. Would you agree?

“I can't find a reason to be for the Rangers. I've looked, and I can't, so I'm not.”

A lot of Caps fans might agree. George Will, these are very different teams. The Rangers added by subtracting, losing Jaromir Jagr and replacing a large part of their club. The Caps played more of a “stand pat” strategy. Any thoughts on which one will work better in the end?

“A society that thinks the choice between ways of building a hockey team is just a choice between equally eligible ‘lifestyles’ turns hockey message boards into cafeterias offering junk food for the mind.”

I see your point. But I take it you’re more a hockey fan than, say, a football fan.

“Football incorporates the two worst elements of American society: violence punctuated by committee meetings.”

What about bloggers, Dr. Will…any thoughts on the emergence of bloggers in hockey coverage?

“If your job is to leaven ordinary lives with elevating spectacle, be elevating or be gone.”

We’ll try to keep that in mind. Finally, we have Keith Olbermann, the outspoken host of MSNBC’s “Countdown.” Keith, you come out of the sports journalism world, having spent some years at ESPN. Your take on the Caps so far?

“Even on the greatest teams, there's always one role player.”

OK, well let’s use your format. What are the five stories for the Caps this year…

"Well…Number five – the emergence of Alexander Semin. Number four – where’s Ovie? Number three – Is it ‘holy’ or ‘hole-y’ Jose? Number two…"

This is your “worst person in the world” segment, right?

“Right…we’ll start with who is ‘worse,’ and that honor goes to…Nikolai Zherdev, who when asked about whether he was looking forward to playing against fellow countryman Alex Ovechkin, said, “just a game…two points.” Mighty presumptuous there, aren’t you young whipper-snapper?

"And the ‘worser’ award tonight goes to Kelly Hrudey, who is the living embodiment of the thought that goaltenders are a species that has taken too many rocks to the coconut. Hrudey, nominally a hockey ‘analyst’ has gone on the record to say that ‘This year, with mostly the same players, the Washington Capitals are a bad team.’ Wonder what he thinks of the Pittsburgh Penguins, a team with but two more points having played one extra game.

"Tonight, we select, as if this could be any surprise, Gary Bettman as the worst… person… in the wor-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-rld…"

Why?

“’Why?’…just how long have to been at this hockey blogging thing?”

With all apologies, Keith, the number one story is tonight's game, which pits the Rangers, who are on top in the East, against the Caps, who are at the bottom of the top eight. The thing is, the Caps have four games in hand on the Blueshirts and trail them by nine points, so perhaps the gap is not as pronounced as you’d think first off.

The Rangers come into the game with the most standings points earned in the Eastern Conference (2nd in the league to San Jose) and ranked high in most of the number categories…



New York, which struggled for years as they tried to assemble a team that had more fantasy potential than on-ice production, became a good team when they improved from the goal outward. That is reflected in the numbers, and their standing. First in goals against in the league and second in penalty killing means that they don’t beat themselves much, and that they are in just about every game they play. Compare that to Washington, which is middle of the road in both categories and pretty much middle of the road in the standings.

The Rangers haven’t abandoned entirely their tendency to add parts from the outside, but they appear to have done it more intelligently recently, and what risks they’ve taken have paid higher dividends. No one reflects the high return on risk so far better than Nikolai Zherdev. Seen as a somewhat immature, selfish, indiffferent player in his four years in Columbus, he has set aside those descriptions so far to unleash the talent that made him the fourth overall pick in the 2003 draft. Zherdev leads the Rangers in scoring (5-9-14) and is an eye-popping +11 (tops in the league) in 16 games – quite a number for one thought to have no interest in two-way play.

Markus Naslund is another player picked off the scrap heap, of sorts, who has produced early. Having seen his production decline every year in Vancouver from 104 points in 2002-2003 to 55 points last year, Naslund was allowed to walk away from the Canucks and was signed by the Rangers to a two-year, $8.0 million contract. It’s paid off for the Rangers so far, as Naslund is tied for second on the team in scoring, with a third of his 12 points on the power play.

The surprises, if there are any, are the emergence of Brandon Dubinsky and Aaron Voros. Dubinsky had a good rookie season last year, skating for large parts of the season with Jaromir Jagr. But this year, his 4-8-12 production in 16 games has him on a pace for 62 points. There seems to be some grit in his game as well, having taken 23 minutes in penalties (3rd on the club).

Speaking of grit, there is the matter of Aaron Voros. One of the free agent signings you probably didn’t pay much attention to (he played for Minnesota last year), Voros has assumed the role of a passable replacement for the departed Sean Avery. It shouldn’t be surprising. Voros had 14 fights in 55 games with the Wild last year. He has four in 16 games this year. He might have been a pest in the upper plains last year, but being one in New York gets one a reputation a lot more quickly. He caused Tampa goalie Mike Smith to go all Hextall on him this past week (drawing nine minutes in penalties from the goalie)…




Voros leads the team in penalty minutes (34), but he’s also chipped in 10 points (tied for fifth on the team).

On defense, the big addition was Wade Redden from Ottawa. Redden, whose game seemed to fall off after the departure of Zdeno Chara to Boston, has not yet recovered the level of play he displayed over the five seasons ending in 2006 (he averaged 11-33-44, +25), but he’s been a steady performer so far. He’s on a pace to go 10-20-30, +20. The other addition, if it can be called that, on the blue line is long time Sabres defenseman Dmitri Kalinin. One of those steady guys for Buffalo for years, he was limited to 46 games last year because of knee and shoulder injuries. He hasn’t had the success the other additions have had, though, as he is a team worst minus-6 in 16 games.

In the end though, the Rangers will rise or fall on the play of goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. He had some questions about his knees in the off season, but hasn’t let that impair his play so far. He has a 9-3-1 record, and his 2.00 GAA and .928 save percentage put him squarely among the league leaders in those categories (fourth and tied for sixth, respectively). Lundqvist is 7-2-1 in 10 career appearances against Washington (2.51, .913), but he is 4-0-1 in his last five games against the Caps.

The Peerless Players to Ponder

New York: Chris Drury

Drury, who is not generally thought of as a top-end scorer, despite his other skills, has scored at almost a point a game pace in his career against Washington (6-14-20, -1, in 22 games). He was held without a goal in his first 11 games this season, but has five in his last five contests, including a hat trick against Tampa Bay in his last game (but you knew that if you watched the whole video clip).

Washington: Mike Green

After going 4-2-6, +5 in his first five games, Green is 0-3-3, -1 in his last seven contests. However, he’s had success against the Rangers. In seven career games against New York, Green is 2-4-6, both of his goals being game-winners. Green also managed a plus-3 in almost 28 minutes of play against Carolina in the last game, so perhaps he’s on the brink of a breakout all around.

The Rangers have been streaky this year. They opened the season with a five-game winning streak, and they’ve had a four game winning streak as well. In between, they were 1-2-1. There is a pattern here…streak, stumble (1-2-1), streak. Right now, they are on a 1-2-0 run in their last three games. If the pattern holds…

Washington 3 – New York 2 (OT)

Lighten up...

In our last preview of the season, we wrote this of Alex Ovechkin...

"We do not want to argue for an Ovechkin becoming a 35-55-80 point player. The Caps won’t win with that player... And what we’re looking for is not necessarily Ovechkin suspending his aggressiveness in the offensive zone. We think it is a case of more people getting more opportunities. Instead of Ovechkin having to carry the offense with 422 shots (his career 82-game average), it might be an Alexander Semin, a Nicklas Backstrom, or someone else and taking more advantage of the opportunities presented to them."

Semin has, in fact, taken advantage of those opportunities in a rather big way. And as for Ovechkin, his 2-6-8, +6, in ten games played is not so far removed from his history (total scoring that is). Here is his first ten-game history over four years:

2005-2006: 6-5-11, +1 (2-3-5 on PP)
2006-2007: 6-4-10, -3 (3-1-4 on PP)
2007-2008: 6-7-13, +2 (3-1-4 on PP)
2008-2009: 2-6-8, +6 (0-1-1 on PP)

At even strength, he's very close to his production of the previous three years. It appears that the power play -- right now a team-wide problem -- is where some of the difficulty lies.

So maybe lighten up...when the power play shakes off its slumber, those numbers should improve dramatically.

Potpou-rumor-ri

Darren Dreger spreads the rumor that...

"Tampa Bay is eager to shed salary and Lightning general manager Brian Lawton is fielding interest in any number of players, including veteran goaltender Olaf Kolzig and forward Radim Vrbata. Kolzig makes $1.5 million this season and may soon become an affordable option for those teams in need of a goaltender."

And if you're thinking it....no.

*****

Mike Knobler writes for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution...

"...the Thrashers rank last in the NHL standings. Their general manager suggests the best way to get the team out of last place is to leave the roster the way it is."

Got that "91" jersey ready to go, eh?

*****

Spector is linking to stories about a number of goalies possibly heading to New Jersey... Nikolai Khabibulin, Dwayne Roloson (the Oilers are carrying three goalies at the moment), Martin Gerber. Funny... no talk of Kolzig.

*****

We thought Mats Sundin was linked to a bunch of teams... well, we have another player in the running for prom queen -- Brendan Shanahan is linked to six teams.

And if you're thinking it...no.

*****

Speaking of Sundin, Bruce Garrioch has him as the apple of the eye of nine teams.

No...don't even think it.

*****

Perspective

We don't think there is anyone out there reading this who seriously thinks that the Caps have put together a streak of dominating games so far this season. In fact, one could reasonably argue that the only complete game they've played this year was a 5-1 win over Vancouver on October 13th. But, despite...

-- Two goals from Alex Ovechkin in 12 games

-- Goaltending from Jose Theodore that fairly defines the term "hot and cold"

-- No even strength points from Nicklas Backstrom

-- One point from Chris Clark

-- Viktor Kozlov puttering around at 1-2-3

-- Mike Green having the third highest number of giveaways in the league

-- A power play featuring Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, Alexander Semin, and Sergei Fedorov that ranks 26th -- 26th! -- in the league

-- The fourth highest number of goals allowed in the first period

-- Having allowed eight goals in the first or last minute of a period

-- Having allowed a goal on the first opponent's shot of a game four times

-- The second worst record in the league (tied with Toronto) when scoring first

-- The worst record in the league (tied with Pittsburgh) when leading after two periods

Despite all that, the Caps are still on a pace for 96 points, which last year would have been good enough for sixth in the Eastern Conference.

When -- and we do mean "when" -- this team finally gets the engine running smoothly, it's going to be a sight to behold.

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Hurricanes 2

For 57 minutes, you wanted to rush down to the ice and scream at the top of your lungs, “what the $%& are you guys doing out there?” And in three minutes, all was forgiven.

That was the sum of the evening as the Caps came from behind in the dying minutes of the game to wrestle a 3-2 victory from the clutches of the Carolina Hurricanes. It came with a price though, as defenseman Shaone Morrisonn left after one four-second shift in the second period (Carolina scored a goal with Morrisonn on the ice) with a groin injury.

The watch word for tonight was “frustration,” as in the Caps frustrating their fans with a propensity for wanting to make that last beauty of a pass that ended up getting tipped away by a Hurricane stick…or frustration at ringing iron on several occasions (Sergei Fedorov and the game’s ultimate hero – Alexander Semin – finding the pipe)…as in frustration over Alexander Ovechkin suffering his career high eighth consecutive game without a goal...as in the frustration of a power play pulling an oh-fer for the third straight game (0-for-3 tonight and four for their last 39 dating back to October 16th).

But in the end, persistence and perseverance won out. The Caps were the better team all night (with one conspicuous exception, but we’ll get to that). Carolina scored on their first shot and then seemed content to sit on the lead. That’s not generally a recipe for success, but the frustrating play of the Caps seemed destined to allow the Hurricane lead to hold up.

But then Ovechkin found a whole new vein of gold to mine in the absence of his goal scoring. A nifty feed from the side boards to Sergei Fedorov was enough to spring Fedorov in alone on goalie Cam Ward, and he lifted the puck over Ward’s right pad to tie the game. After Carolina regained the lead on a goal from Tuomo Ruutu that Brent Johnson would appear to want back, it was Ovechkin again, leaving the puck for Semin behind the Carolina net and skating out to draw a Hurricane defender with him. Semin walked out in to the space that was vacated and snapped a no-look shot off Ward’s stick on the far side and into the net with only 2:43 left in regulation. Finally, it was Ovechkin barreling down the left side as the clock was winding to zero, forcing defenseman Joe Corvo to mark him. Upon crossing the Carolina blue line, he feinted to the right as if to cut to the middle, and this drew Rod Brind’Amour out of the middle to help on Ovechkin. All that was left was for Ovechkin to lay the puck across to Semin for a clear shot at Ward, which found the back of the net. On the play, Brind’Amour, in trying to get back across appeared to take the blade of Semin’s stick on the follow through in the face, and left a trail of blood as he left the ice while the Caps celebrated the go-ahead goal.

The result made coach Bruce Boudreau look like a genius for uniting the Russians – Ovechkin, Fedorov, and Semin on one line. All three figured in the scoring – Semin with two goals, Fedorov with a goal, and Ovechkin with three assists.

Some other points…

-- It was 57 minutes of sleepwalking followed by three minutes of turbocharged effort. That is not something one wants to depend on.

-- 0:00…that was the shorthanded ice time logged by Alex Ovechkin. OK, so the Hurricanes only had a total of 2:14 on the power play, but is this a sign that the experiment will be pared back?

-- Rod Brind’Amour won 12 of 18 draws. The rest of the Hurricanes won eight of 37. Not good.

-- If there was a momentum changer, it was Milan Jurcina’s hit on Scott Walker two minutes after Carolina scored their second goal. It was the most effective expenditure of energy by any Cap to that point and seemed to stop Carolina in its tracks.

-- About that conspicuous deficiency...We spent some time watching Cam Ward for long stretches, and there was one thing we noticed. Rarely it seemed in the first 57 minutes was there a Cap within ten feet of him. He simply got too much room and too many free looks at shots (even though the shot chart suggests a fair number of shots from between the hash marks in the first period). The Caps have to create more traffic in front. Tellingly, they seemed to do a better job of that late , and it might have contributed to Semin’s game-tying goal. Who was it in front crossing Ward’s line of sight?...Ovechkin.

-- The Hurricanes’ blog on the News and Observer called this game “brutally intense and physical.” Frankly, we didn’t see it, not for a game between two teams that are likely to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast all year. Here is an example…the Caps were credited with 21 hits. Ovechkin and John Erskine had 12 of them, leaving nine for the other sixteen skaters. That doesn’t impress us as either brutal or physical.

-- That’s 15 goals in 20 games against the Hurricanes for Semin, including three game winners. Here is as staggering a stat…he’s done it on 55 shots (27.3 percent shooting percentage).

-- As good as the Fedvechmin line (or perhaps the "Las Vegas Line" -- zip code "89128") was in a lot of situations, that’s how bad the second and third lines were. The Flesichmann-Nylander-Clark line was reunited to start the game and managed two shots total. The Laich-Backstrom-Kozlov line looked like a new line with a lot of errant passes looking as if intended for no one in particular. They did have nine shots, but it seemed (especially in Backstrom’s case, with four shots) a matter of creating things on one’s own.

-- I’d have bet that on a night when John Erskine (three) and Boyd Gordon (three) outshot Alex Ovechkin (two) we’d be calling this a no-point night.

-- At the risk of being a jinx, the Caps are now the last team in the East undefeated in regulation at home (4-0-1).

-- Guess Johnny gets the start on Saturday against the Rangers.

This had all the look of one of those 20 games you’re going to lose in a season, no matter what. That the Caps were able to grab two points without yielding any to Carolina by virtue of an extra-time result is the kind of ending that might not mean a lot now, but could in April. Here’s to toughing one out. Well done, boys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, you can’t say after game 11 that there is a “must win” game in the 12th contest of the season, but there is no time like the present to say, “enough!” about this mediocre start of 5-4-2. And there is no better opponent to shout “enough!” at than the Carolina Hurricanes.

But first, it’s been a while since we dipped into the ol’ mailbag, so let’s take the pulse of Caps Nation.

Dear Peerless,

I didn’t mean it. Honest. It was past my bed time, and that Jaworski dope was going on and on an on with all that football-speak. Caps fans are the greatest. No, really, they are. All 17 of them.

Signed,
Mr. Tony in DC

Dear Mr. Tony

Isn’t it about time you trade in your microfone for a fork at the early bird at Shoney’s? Or maybe take your act to dinner theatre in the Catskills?
*****

Dear Peerless,

How d’ya like me now?

Signed,
Ryan G. in Anaheim

Dear Ryan,

OK, ya got me there.
*****

Dear Peerless,

Hey, wanna buy a goalie mask? Only 10 games of mileage. Give you a great deal on it…please?

Signed,
MB30 in Newark

Dear MB30,

Sorry, I need my elbows to find my way onto the Metro in the morning.
*****

Dear Peerless,

You know?...Maybe that Semin guy isn’t so wrong after all.

Signed,
Six points in three games since Semin’s interview

Dear Six Points,

Maybe we can get Semin to talk about some of his teammates.
*****

As for tonight’s game, the Hurricanes will come into this game with a 7-3-2 record, good for the top spot in the Southeast and the third spot in the Eastern Conference. The rest of the record for the visitors looks like this…

Goals for/game: 3.08 (7th)
Goals against/game: 2.92 (15th)
5-on-5: 1.11 (12th)
Power play: 10/58, 17.2% (17th)
Penalty Killing: 43/54, 79.6% (20th)
Winning % scoring first: 4-2-1, 571 (T-21st)
Winning % trailing first: 3-1-1, 600 (6th)

The odd thing about these numbers is that both teams have a better winning percentage when trailing first than when they score first (Washington: 3-2-1 versus 2-2-1). How they do it is probably due to different factors – Washington’s explosive offense (which hasn’t been especially explosive lately) and Carolina’s veteran mix and their balance.

Speaking of that balance, Carolina has no skater among the top 30 in goals (Eric Staal is tied for 32nd with five) or the top 40 in total scoring (Ray Whitney is tied for 15th with 11 points), yet is still 7th in the league in scoring-per-game.

Statistically, one might look at a so-so defense and special teams in the lower half of the league standings and wonder how the Hurricanes have compiled a 7-3-2 record. But they are one of those teams that do a lot of little, unheralded things well. They are a top-ten team in hits (8th), blocked shots (4th), takeaways (4th), and faceoffs (10th). They also don’t get penalized much (eighth fewest minor penalties taken and fourth fewest penalty minutes per game).

Perhaps typically of this team, they are led in scoring by the underrated and unheralded Ray Whitney. For a guy who gets precious little ink for his efforts, he is plenty effective. Since joining Carolina after the lockout, he’s put up 210 points in 222 games played. Almost half of those points (25-75-100) have been scored on the power play. He is 15-25-40, +4 in 46 career games against Washington.

The Hurricanes are also strong down the middle with Eric Staal and Rod Brind’Amour. Neither, though, has gotten off to a fast start. Staal has nine points in 12 games, but with three multi-point games aside has been rather quiet. He has also been somewhat undisciplined, having amassed an uncharacteristic 16 penalty minutes in his first nine games. He’s managed to stay out of the box, though, over the past three games. Never especially adept in the faceoff circle, he’s winning draws consistent with his career pace (44.5 percent).

Winning draws has never been a problem for Brind’Amour, and he’s among the league leaders again (2nd with 63.2 percent wins). He’s coming off a season in which he lost 70 games to a knee injury. While he has chipped in enough scoring to rank third on the team (4-4-8), one place where the after effects of his injury might be felt is in defense. The two-time Selke winner is a team worst minus-10. Only Atlanta’s Mathieu Schneider has a worse league-wide plus-minus mark (-11).

The defense for the Hurricanes resembles that of Buffalo in that there is no particular standout player among the defensemen. No Norris candidates here. But it is a balanced group, all of whom can chip in on the offensive end (with the exception, perhaps, of Josef Melichar). Niclas Wallin is at the other end of the plus-minus rankings, tied with the Rangers’ Nikolai Zherdev for the top spot in the league (plus-10). What the Hurricanes will have to contend with, though, is injuries on the blue line. Joni Pitkanen, Frantisek Kaberle, and David Tanabe are all on the shelf.

And that’s not all for the injuries. Justin Williams is out for the foreseeable future with an Achilles tendon injury. Matt Cullen is nursing a leg injury and is day-to-day. Brandon Sutter is still feeling the after effects of an ugly hit from Doug Weight that left him with a concussion. He’s listed as day-to-day. That is a lot of talent and experience on the shelf, which leaves things largely in the hands of…

Cam Ward. It’s perhaps a bit of a reach to call Ward an enigma, but it wouldn’t be too far off the mark. Since his Conn Smythe performance in the 2006 Stanley Cup tournament, he has been nothing short of…well, ok. 67-46-11 is a fine won-loss record in the two years after that performance, but that success doesn’t really owe itself to Ward’s performance. A 2.83 goals against average and .901 save percentage reflects his being ranked out of the top 30 in both years in both statisitics.

However, Ward has improved his numbers in the early going this season. With a 4-2-2 record, his 2.58 GAA ranks 11th in the league, and his .922 save percentage is ninth. What’s more, Ward has had more than his share of success at the expense of the Caps, carrying a 10-4-1, 2.56, .918 record against Washington into this game.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Sergei Samsonov

Samsonov went the first ten games of the year without a point, but he does have assists in each of his last two games. At 0-2-2, -5 through the first dozen games, the question is one of whether he is coming out of a slump (that he’ll be more the player that was 14-18-32 in 38 games with the Hurricanes last year), or if he’s returning to being the player who bombed in Montreal (9-17-26 in 63 games in 2006-2007) and Chicago (0-4-4 in 23 games last year).

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

Ten years ago, Fedorov signed a $38 million offer sheet with the Hurricanes. The Detroit Red Wings matched the offer, and Fedorov has taken it out on Carolina ever since. In 28 career games against Carolina, he is 10-22-32, +10, with six power play goals and three game winners. Maybe he just likes barbecue.

This is the first of a five-game stretch, four of which the Caps will play at home, that could put the Caps right back into the upper echelon of the standings. It’s one of those stretches that come April might be looked back upon with a “that’s where it all started” sort of memory, or it could be an “if only” regret. The Caps are 6-5-1 against the Hurricanes at home since the lockout. They’ll stay on the good side of .500…

Caps 4 – Hurricanes 3

A ONE-point night: Senators 2 - Caps 1 (OT)

Did you ever find yourself at a traffic light…the light turns green, you step on the gas, and the engine revs up, but you go nowhere?

That’s the Caps right now – stuck in neutral. Such was the case last night as the Caps managed to slip only one shot behind Ottawa goalie Alex Auld in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Senators. What happened?

Alex Ovechkin was held to four shots in his return, none in the last 34:28 of regulation and 4:20 of overtime. It would have made a nice story if he’d notched a goal or two in his return, but the time off showed late.

One minor penalty…one. That was what was called on Ottawa in 64:20 of play. Eric Furlatt and Don Koharski were not paid by the whistle, that’s for sure.

Washington – a town used to quarterback controversies in football – now must think that it is seeing (or about to see) one in the nets for the Caps. Since a lackluster effort in relief in a 7-0 loss to Atlanta, Brent Johnson is 1-0-2, 1.90, .934.

Once again, the opponent got a lot of clean looks at the net. Ottawa managed to get 72 percent of its 61 attempts on net (only three shots by forwards were blocked). The Caps managed to get 55 percent of its 49 attempts on net (10 shots by forwards were blocked).

We’ve noted that Viktor Kozlov has been a slow starter recently, but right now it’s a luxury the Caps can’t afford. It defies belief that a player who gets none other than top-line minutes has managed more than one shot on goal in only two of seven games he’s played. Last night, he had one once more.

That’s 11 games and counting for Nicklas Backstrom without an even-strength point.

Since scoring a power play goal against the Devils, Mike Green is 0-for-21 in shots on goal over six games. The Caps are 2-3-1 in those games, and the Caps’ power play is 3-for-24. Green was 0-for-two last night.

We still wonder about the status of Chris Clark. Clark, moved to the fourth line, logged only 7:58 in playing time. That isn’t the odd number. 0:00 is. That is the shorthanded time he had. Clark has logged a total of 1:11 in shorthanded ice time this year. He averaged 3:34 in 2005-2006 and 2:44 in 2006-2007. Just looking at the numbers, it seems the minutes Clark doesn’t get could be explained by David Steckel getting them (the latter playing only 12 games combined in those first two seasons after the lockout), but it still strikes us as a bit odd.

Any wonder why the Caps couldn’t solve Auld in the third period? Only two of six shots were taken from within 50 feet, only one within 25 feet.

One point is better than none, and the Caps are still hanging onto the periphery of the top-eight (they’re ninth this morning and only two points out of sixth). But it is not a team that looks as if it is playing with much urgency, and they are not creating anything in front of the opponent’s net. Four of the next five are at home, and all five have significant standings implications as they are against Eastern Conference teams, two of them against Southeast Division leader Carolina. It’s an opportunity. But if they play like they have the last two games, they might end up with four or five points and see it down the road as an opportunity lost.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, November 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps are back at it on this Election Day in the United States, and the Caps are casting their absentee hockey effort in Ottawa to take on the Senators. The Caps are coming off a grisly 5-0 loss in Buffalo on Saturday, and this opponent isn’t likely to be any easier…

“They’ll be as hard as the sod in west Texas in July.”

Why, it’s Dan Rather. Dan, you’re usually manning the anchor desk on election night. Shouldn’t you be covering the campaigns?

"Well, yeah, but like we used to say, if a frog had side pockets, he'd carry a handgun."*

Makes you want to avoid French restaurants. But Dan, I didn’t know you were a hockey fan. Any special insight on this one between the Caps and the Senators?

“We need Billy Crystal to Analyze This.”

Well, there’s only the two of us tonight. What about the Caps? Most folks had them as a potential Stanley Cup contender this year, but they’ve stumbled a bit out of the gate. Your take?

"You know that old song, 'it's delightful, it's delicious, it's de-lovely' for the Caps in most areas of the country. However, they had a slight hitch in their giddy up, but they corrected that."

You’re talking about the practice Coach Bruch Boudreau put them through on Sunday morning…

“You could say that like in southern states, he beat them like a rented mule.”

A lot of folks have pointed to the Caps taking a lot of penalties and some below par goaltending. Do you agree?

“You look at them and think they’re thinking, ‘"We don't know what to do. We don't know whether to wind a watch or bark at the moon.’"

Do you think the Caps can turn things around?

"Let's see where it goes from here. Round and round it goes, where it stops nobody knows."

A lot of the focus has been what’s going on down on the ice, but do you think the front office is thinking of pulling the trigger on a deal? George McPhee doesn’t often tip his hand, but do you think he’s working the phones?

"Is it like a swan, with every feather above the water settled, but under the water paddling like crazy?"

What about Ottawa…they’re last in the Northeast.

"This situation in Ottawa would give an aspirin a headache. No question now that the Senators are rapidly reaching the point where they’ve got their backs to the wall, their shirttails on fire and the bill collector's at the door."

The early season has a lot of prognosticators looking pretty bad…

"It's one reason so many of them drink a lot."

Well, that’s our cue to get to the game at hand. The Caps and the Senators come into this game as two of what might be identified as underachievers in the season’s young stages. Combined, the clubs are 9-9-3, with 62 goals scored, 63 alllowed. The term “mediocre” immediately springs to mind…

Ottawa’s problems are not in their special teams. Being top-ten in both power play and penalty killing would be, you would think in this new NHL, a sure-fire recipe for success. It’s just that the Senators have been such a gawd-awful team at even strength. Here is your fun stat as far as that goes. Ottawa has scored only five even strength goals in the first period in 11 games so far – three of them came in a single game (a 6-3 win against Phoenix on October 17th). That leaves two even strength goals scored in the first period in ten other games. Make you want to sneak into the Caps locker room before the game and write on the white board in big block letters…

NO TAKING STOOPID PENALTIES EARLY!!!

If you’re looking at Ottawa on an individual basis, you’re tempted to think they should change their name from the “Senators” to the “Comedians.” Why, because they're just a one liner of a team (we kill us…). Here’s what we mean…

-- The top line of Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daniel Alfredsson has combined to score a total of 15 of the 31 goals the team has scored.

-- They have combined for a total of 35 points. The rest of the team – 17 other skaters having dressed -- has 50.

And here is an indirect indicator of the dominance of the top line – Filip Kuba. Kuba has 12 points, tied with Spezza for second on the club. Of those 12 points, all are assists. Here is how they break down…

-- Eight of them are on goals scored by the top line (three Heatley goals, three Alfredsson goals, and two Spezza goals)

-- Eight of those assists are on the power play (three on goals by Alfredsson, two on goals by Heatley, one on a goal by Spezza).

The disappointments thus far from the Senators don’t take a lot of looking to find. Antoine Vermette was a player that might have been looked to for a big breakthrough season on the heels of his 24-goal year last year. Certainly the Senators thought so, giving him a two-year, $5.525 million contract (thus avoiding arbitration that might have resulted in a bigger payday). But while has been launching shots in an almost Ovechkinian fashion (38 in 11 games), Vermette has but has two goals to show for it. In 15 career games against Washington, Vermette is 2-2-4, -8, with a shorthanded goal.

Mike Fisher has had to deal with a groin injury that caused him to miss a couple of games in mid-October, but in the nine games he has played in, he has yet to register a point and is a minus-5. In 20 career games against the Caps, Fisher is 7-6-13, -5, with three power play goals, a shorthanded goal, and a game-winner.

In goal, one would think Alex Auld has taken over the top spot in the Senators’ nets. He brings a 3-2-1, 2.15, .931 record into the game, and perhaps more importantly for the short term, has been the goalie getting the call in the last four games for the Senators. Ominously enough for Caps fans, he’s allowed four, three, two, and one goal in those four games. Clearly, a shutout is in the offing (uh, that’s a joke, dear reader). He hasn’t been especially successful against the Caps, though. In six career games, he is 2-2-1, 2.57, .899, but he has authored a shutout (a 6-0 win while with Vancouver in 2003).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Anton Volchenkov

It isn’t often that a player with two points and a minus-4 in 11 games would get such attention, but Volchenkov has been something of a shot-blocking machine. Last year, despite missing 15 games, he finished second in the league. He led the league by a whopping 45 blocked shots the previous year. For a club that doesn’t have the top-notch goaltending you’d expect of a contender, this guy could be the goalie’s best friend on the ice and could serve to frustrate Caps looking to get pucks on net.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Ovechkin returns in this game from a hiatus to help care for his ailing grandfather in Russia. He is also burdened with having gotten off to a slow start – tied for 189th in scoring at 2-3-5. But Ovechkin has made the Senators his personal scrimmage club, going 10-9-19, +6 in 12 career games. He’s had three power play goals, a shorthanded goal, two game-winners, and a four goal night in his brief career against Ottawa. If Ovechkin is going to shake his early season difficulties, this could be as good as any a team against which to do it.

Ottawa, as a club that was a perennial contender in this decade, seems to be extending their disappointing play that emerged in the second half of last season. The Caps, the hot finisher last spring and darling of the hockey punditocracy in the pre-season, hasn’t exactly electrified the league. Something has to give. The Senators have incentive here – they lost all four games to the Caps last year, giving up 22 goals in the process. But the flip side of that is that the Caps might have this club’s number in terms of exploiting its defense and goaltending.

Well, Dan, whaddya think…will the Caps’ll win tonight?

"No one is saying that Washington is not going to win this game, and if you had to bet the double-wide, you'd have to bet that they'd win."

We would too…

Caps 5 – Senators 3

Oh, and by the way...

Get out and vote!!!

* Based on actual Dan Ratherisms…swear to God.

The First Ten -- The Players

We’ve looked at the team, but what about the pieces – the individuals so far this season? Start with the young guns – Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green (click on the image for a larger version)…


As a group, these guys are the anti-Goldilocks. They haven’t performed as a group up to the way they finished the season last year, but they’re further along as a group than they were to start the 2007-2008 season. That should not be interpreted (to carry along the Goldilocks analogy) as being “just right.” This result shouldn’t be unexpected, given that the Caps are neither quite as badly off as in the first ten games last year, nor are they as well off as the blazing finish last year. But, this is the group upon whom the fortunes of the Caps rest (at least among those who don’t strap on leg pads). It really needs to get better.

What is perhaps odd about this group is that they have precisely the same number of combined power play goals, assists, and points as what they finished with over the last ten games of last year. As a group they have the same number of game winning goals. It is at even strength where they have been less effective, with three fewer goals, three fewer assists, and down 10 on the combined plus/minus.

That the group is as close as they are to where they finished the season last year is, of course, a product of the play of Alexander Semin. Up three goals, seven assists, ten points, and up nine in plus/minus, Semin has carried the Caps on the offensive side of the ledger in the early going. Conversely, Alex Ovechkin has gotten off to a slow start, which has been chronicled in enough places. The odd element here is the performance of Nicklas Backstrom, whose performance thus far suffers perhaps more than the others in terms of the burden of expectations. Backstrom finished with a rush last year, but looking at his start this year, it looks a lot like his start last year. The silver lining there is that this might be less the beginning of a sophomore slump than it is just a slow start.

Then there are the “new guys.” As a group, that includes Michael Nylander, Chris Clark, and Sergei Fedorov, who are either coming back from missing large chunks of last year (Nylander, Clark) or are here for the start of the year (Fedorov).


The stats look better so far in comparison to the last ten games of last year, but when two guys didn’t play a game in that stretch, you’d better have that result. Getting 16 points from Nylander and Fedorov is about as good as one might expect from a guy coming off a major injury and another who is in the tail end of his career. The problem here is the early performance of Clark. We can’t know if there are lingering effects from the groin injury that limited Clark to 18 games last year, and Clark’s being a top scorer is not critical to the success of this team. But so far, one point (and that coming almost a month ago, in the third game of the season) is something that has to improve.

We might also take a look at what we’ll refer to as the “next tier” guys – players who don’t often show up in bright lights on the score sheet, but who did make contributions last year and would be expected to make important contributions this year…


This is another group that sits squarely between the highs of the last ten games last year and the lows of last year’s first ten games. The disappointment here is the play of Viktor Kozlov, who despite getting top line responsibility and minutes, has only three points in six games and is a minus-1. Kozlov has battled a knee injury, missing four games out of the first ten, and in that there is one of those silver linings. Pro-rated over ten games, his early performance doesn’t look much different than his first ten games last year. Now, you could argue, “that was under Glen Hanlon,” and you might have a point (you could make that argument for any of the “first ten” game numbers we’re using as comparisons). But, in 2006-2007 he was 2-3-5, even, through ten games…in 2005-2006 he was 2-3-5, +1, through ten games. See a pattern?

Then there are the “crash and bangers.” What one might be looking for here is not scoring, but energy and keeping other teams off the board...


In that respect, this bunch is struggling. Even though they, as a group, are scoring more than either the first ten or the last ten games of last year (Steckel missing all of the last ten regular season games last year with a finger injury), all are on the minus side of the ledger so far this year. One of the things to watch doesn’t appear in that graphic above. David Steckel and Boyd Gordon were among the league leaders in faceoffs last year, finishing seventh and ninth, respectively last year. They are down a bit so far in the first ten games this year – Steckel from 56.3 percent to 54.8 percent and Gordon from 55.8 percent to 54.8 percent – but Steckel has been very effective of late (six of his last seven games over 50 percent), as has Gordon (four straight over 50 percent). Possessing the puck requires having the puck – it helps to start plays in that position.

Looking at the defense, one number screams off the page. See if you can find it…


This group (not including, of course, Tyler Sloan) finished the year with a plus-25 in the last ten games. None of the top four – Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Tom Poti, or Shaone Morrisonn – were worse than plus-5. This group is a combined minus-1 through the first ten games so far, and as a group, the defense has struggled. Now, is that a chicken and the egg problem (goaltending being the egg to the defense’s chicken)? Hard to say. But it would be hard to make an argument that the defense has played well in any case. The silver lining is in looking at how the group improved from the first ten (under presumably a more defense-oriented coach in Glen Hanlon) to the last ten games. This bunch certainly has it in them to play well. They just haven’t so far. And perhaps even more than getting Alex Ovechkin up to the productive pace to which we are accustomed, getting these guys playing well will be the big factor in getting the Caps off and running toward a playoff spot as the season wears on.

If you look at the goaltenders, it isn’t hard to see what the problem is…


They’re not stopping enough pucks (-smack-…duh!). Despite the fact that the Caps have allowed the seventh fewest shots per game in the league, they are 24th in goals allowed per game. A lot of that is poor defense, generally, but the goaltender is the last line of that defense. Jose Theodore ranks 35th in save percentage in the league (.877). If that number doesn’t improve significantly, it’s hard to see how this team makes the playoffs. One simply can’t count on the Caps scoring four goals a game on a nightly basis. Why?...well, the leading goals per game average has decreased in every year since the lockout. Ottawa led the league at 3.80 goals/game in 2005-2006, Buffalo led with 3.63 a game in 2006-2007, and Ottawa led last year at 3.15 goals/game.

Here is one last point. Much is made about a team having to play 60 minutes of hockey to be successful. The Caps are getting more like 54…three 18 minute periods. They have surrendered eight goals in the first or last minute of a period this year. With more discipline, their goals allowed per game might be reduced from 3.30 a game (24th) to 2.50 a game (10th). The good news is that is a problem that is not one of lack of talent, but of lack of discipline. It is a problem that a capable coaching staff can correct, and if they do, the Caps chances will suddenly look much better.

Rodney Dangersemin?

So, we were checking out NHL.com to read about Alexander Semin being named first star in the league for October, expecting to read about how he finished the month among the league leaders in most offensive categories. We clicked on the link on the NHL.com home page and were taken to this story...

What does a guy have to do to get a little respect?

Well, congratulations Alexander, it was an honor richly deserved.

The First Ten -- The Team

Ten games are in the books, and it’s as good a time as any to take a look at where the Caps stand.

First, let’s keep in mind that the object of the exercise is to win the Stanley Cup, not show well or merely make the playoffs. So, in keeping with this theme of “tens,” how did the last ten winners do in their first ten games?

No Stanley Cup winner in the last ten years has won fewer than six games, but perhaps more tellingly, they don’t lose. Only one team lost as many as three games in regulation time in their first ten games. The Caps, at 5-4-1 through their first ten games, have a lot of work – not to mention recent history to overcome – to realize their goal.

But looking at the Caps in comparison with themselves, the picture somewhat more mixed. Again, in keeping with the notion of looking at ten-game segments, we looked at the first ten games played to date in comparison with two other sets of ten – the last ten they played (corresponding to the last ten games of last year) and the same “first ten” segment from a year ago.

It’s tempting to say that the first ten games this year look like the first ten games last year, but that comparison does not bear up under scrutiny. This year’s club is clearly better offensively (or at least permits a fuller expression of the offensive talent available). In fact, the Caps’ performance over the first ten games on offense (32 goals) looks a lot like how they closed the season last year (31 goals). The difference between this club and the one that finished last year is on defense. The Caps have allowed 33 goals (excluding Gimmicks) so far. Compare that to the 19 they allowed over the last ten games last year, and you can understand why it is that people say, “defense wins championships.”

What is perhaps striking about this club versus the one that closed the season last year is in how similar they look in many respects. That’s to be expected, given the continuity of the Boudreau system. If you look at goals for, shots, shots allowed, power plays (opportunities and goals), the clubs are very similar in results.

Perhaps the most important difference to recognize between this club and the one that finished last year is on special teams. You’ll note that on the power play, there isn’t a lot of difference, either in the number of opportunities (50 in the first ten this year, 49 in the last ten last year) or success (eight goals versus seven). The difference is on the penalty kill. The Caps were not then, and are not now, an especially talented penalty killing club. The percentages (80.0 percent this year, 79.5 percent in the last ten last year) bear this out. The difference is in opportunities. Last year, the Caps were on the short end of the manpower situation only 39 times in the last ten games. So far this year, that number is 60, which looks uncomfortably like the number through the first ten games last year (52), and it’s killing them.

There is also the matter of getting a lead. In the last ten games last year, the Caps led first in seven of them. They won them all. This year, they have led first in four games and split them (2-2-1). They’ve been less effective getting a lead and capitalizing a lead. In fact, this year’s early performance looks – again, uncomfortably – like last year’s early performance (3-2-0 when leading first). It’s also worth noting that the Caps got a lead in seven of those ten games to close last year. So far this year – five times, same as last year. One would rather not have that comparison.

The Caps aren’t a carbon copy of last year’s “first ten games” team, especially in style. But they are a little too close to that club in appearance as far as results go, especially in the performance of special teams and an inability to get up on teams and close them out. The early record of 5-4-1 suggests that their chances of winning a Cup this year (given the early performance of recent Cup winners) are dim. But virtually the same team last year closed the year on a 9-1-0 run, scoring more than a goal a game more than their opponents in the process. The Caps are capable of dominating play. What appears to be the case so far is that the very things that could undermine their play – a lack of hard work in their own end, a tendency toward the lazy penalty and the predictable results (given that the Caps haven’t been that effective a penalty killing squad) – are what is doing them in at this early juncture.