The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, April 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Friday on Fun Street and the next to last game of the regular season…

“The penultimate game…”

Cheerless, you remembered. And Fearless, you’re here, too. And what’s with the get-up?

‘Well, we heard that the Caps was restin’ guys this week, and we came a’runnin’ to offer our services.”

And what services would those be?

“Cuz, do you not remember those halcyon days of yore and our winter afternoons on the frozen river?”

I remember watching a lot of falling down by you two.

“T’weren’t fallin’ down… it was goin’ in t’my ‘butterfly.’”

You weren’t even a goalie, you doofus. Besides, it was more of a “dung beetle.”

“Or a turtle.”

Yeah, he did spend a lot of time turtling whenever Mickey McGonigle dropped the gloves.

“It’s Michelle, and it was only the one time."

“You mean ‘one time each game, don’t you Cheerless?”

So you guys want to offer your services to Coach Boudreau? What makes you think you can skate with the big boys?

“Well, I’ve been known as quite the scorer in my day…”

“Cuz, you ain’t scored since the senior prom.”

“And I suppose you can do better?”

“Nope, I’m a goalie. I have a glove hand that’s legendary in six counties.”

“Glitter gloves don’t count, cuz.”

Will you guys knock it off?! There’s a hockey game to play, and I don’t think Coach Boudreau has any use for a couple of guys who couldn’t lace their skates without a manual.

“Maybe yer right, cuz… hey Fearless, maybe the Oilers are lookin’ for somebody… race ya to the truck…”

While those two see if they can crack the Edmonton lineup, the Caps and Thrashers end their season series tonight. We just did this a week ago, a 2-1 Capitals win that ended a three-game losing streak. Starting with that game, these teams have gone in entirely different directions. The Caps have won four in a row, clinching the Presidents’ Trophy and beating two teams they might see in the playoffs (Boston and Pittsburgh), while the Thrashers have lost three in a row and were eliminated from the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Not much has changed for these teams, trend-wise, since we looked at the matchup a week ago. The overall numbers haven’t changed much, either…

These teams have met five times this year, and the Caps have won them all by a combined score of 24-11. Fourteen different Caps have goals in the season series, 21 have points. Clearly, Atlanta has had issues stopping the Caps, the 2-1 result a week ago notwithstanding.

The Caps’ leading points scorer in this season series is hardly a surprise – Alex Ovechkin (3-4-7 in five games). What is perhaps more noteworthy is that a number of Caps have compiled their season’s best scoring against one team in games against the Thrashers, or the Caps have received scoring from unlikely places (some players who are, in fact, not with the team these days).

- Jeff Schultz has treated the Thrashers like a happy meal this year – 1-4-5, plus-10 in the five games, including his biggest night of the season, a three point night on October 22nd that included this gem for his first goal of the season…

- Keith Aucoin, how skating with Hershey, recorded two of his nine points against the Thrashers (tied for his highest mark against any team this year).

- Chris Clark, now of Columbus, recorded one of his four goals for the Caps against the Thrashers.

- Alexandre Giroux, in Hershey these days, potted his only goal in the NHL this season against Atlanta.

- Semyon Varlamov recorded his only assist of the season against Atlanta.

- Brooks Laich has more assists against Atlanta (five) than he has against any other club, except Florida (also five, in one more game played).

The Caps’ special teams have performed rather well against Atlanta, too. In five games, the power play is 5-for-21 (23.8 percent), but that includes an 0-for-7 in the first meeting of these teams this season. Five-for-14 since can be described as “dominating” in any book. The penalty killers are 16-for-19 in the five games (84.2 percent) and have not allowed a power play goal on nine tries over the last three games.

Here is perhaps the oddest fact of all in this season’s series. Jose Theodore has yet to make an appearance against Atlanta. Semyon Varlamov got three chances, winning them all (3-0-0, 2.67, .908), while Michal Neuvirth got the other two (2-0-0, 1.51, .964). Theodore appears likely to get his first chance to improve on his 13-5-0, 2.67, .905 career mark against the Thrashers tonight.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Atlanta: Maxim Afinogenov

The season is over for top scorer Nik Antropov, who is being given the last two games off after skating through a number of injuries this year. That leaves it up to Afinogenov, as the Thrashers’ remaining top scorer, to try to lead the Thrashers offense against a team that has treated their goaltenders like a pinball machine. He is 2-1-3, minus-5 in five games against the Caps this year.

Washington: Matt Bradley

It’s about earning playing time among those competing on the third and fourth lines. Bradley has a chance to put his best foot forward tonight against a team he has had a lot of success against this year. Bradley is 2-2-4, plus-3 in five games against Atlanta. He also has goals in two of his last four games.

Keys:

1. Get ‘em back, keep ‘em in. The Caps are either getting guys back into the lineup who were nursing injuries, or they are close to getting other guys back. The trick now is to keep them healthy. There isn’t anything more important than that in this game.

2. See Number 1

3. See Number 2

In the end, the Caps are tuning up, and the Thrashers might be tuning out. Atlanta could be expected to play for a measure of pride (no team wants to take the oh-fer for the entire season), and as a divisional opponent they might be expected to play with a certain edge. But that isn’t going to be nearly enough to stem the tide that will wash over them.

Caps 6 – Thrashers 2

Last Regular Season Game at Mellon Arena

Thank God...

As late as this past January, it was still not known whether the affront to all that is good and decent in mankind would be reduced to the rubble from whence it came.  The Sports and Exhibition Authority (the arena's owner) hired a consultant to conduct a historic assessment of the arena. In what has to be one of the most head-scratching developments in the history of history, it is eligible to appear on the National Register of Historic Places mainly because of its unique, retractable dome (I have a unique zit on my backside, too... can we get that on the Register?). 

Please tell us the wrecking ball has been ordered...




(source: ballparks.com)

Sittin' at the end of the bar

Some scribbles on an off day…

- True or false… The Caps have more players with ten or more goals than any other team in the league. Answer: False. Eleven teams have at least ten players with ten or more goals, and five of them have more than the ten that the Caps have. Buffalo leads with 12, followed by Chicago, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis, each with 11. Five others are tied with the Caps at ten.

- But no team in the league has more 20-goal scorers than the Caps (seven), none with more 30-goal scorers (three), and none with more 40-goal scorers (one). The Caps could add to their 40-goal scorers if Alexander Semin gets one in the final two games. The 30-goal scorers could jump if Mike Knuble should get a pair in the last two contests, and the 20-goal scorers could increase if Mike Green gets one in the last two games.

- 15 different Caps have game-winning goals this year.

- Only the Detroit Red Wings (19) have fewer fighting majors than the Caps (20). And in case you’re wondering, four of the top ten teams in fighting majors are in the playoff mix, five of the second ten, and seven of the bottom ten.

- No team has more game misconduct penalties than the Caps (five, tied with St. Louis).

- No team is more disciplined than the Red Wings… 4th fewest minor penalties taken, fewest misconducts, fewest game misconducts (none), 11th in bench minors. The Ducks are the, well, odd ducks here… most major penalties (78), fewest bench minors (two).

- The Caps actually have a better team plus-minus on the road (plus-40) than they do at home (plus-30). Only four other teams can say that, only Boston has a greater difference (plus-11 on the road, minus-16 at home).

- In 80 games this year, the Blackhawks have been outshot in games only 12 times, by far the lowest in the league. Oddly enough, they are also the only team that has not had a single game in which they and their opponent had the same number of shots on goal.

- Boston has played more extra-time games this year than anyone (26). They are 13-13 in those games. Phoenix has 18 wins in extra-time, three more than second-place Chicago.

- Phoenix plays on the edge. They have more one-goal wins (28) than any other team and the best winning percentage in one-gaol games (.700). But Detroit is most likely to be involved in a one-goal decision (35 times), one more than Phoenix.

- You might think that the Caps, as the highest scoring offense in the league, would have the most blowouts. You might think that, and if you did you would be wrong. Chicago and Vancouver have 22 three-goal or more wins. The Caps are third with 21. Tampa Bay is most likely to be involved in a three-goal or more decision, having been in one 32 times (11-21). Pittsburgh is next with 31 (16-15).

- You might not be surprised to know that Nashville, Phoenix, and Florida are tied with being shut out the most times (eight). They aren’t offensive powerhouses. But there is a fourth team in that group… Detroit. Bet you didn’t have that one. The Caps have been shut out the fewest times – once (Ryan Miller of the Sabres turned the trick on December 9th).

- At the other end of the spectrum, you might ponder which team has the most shutouts. Phoenix?... no. Buffalo?... no. New Jersey?... no. It’s Chicago. Yes, that Chicago, the one whose goaltenders are thought of as playoff road kill. The thing is, though, seven of their 11 shutouts came before Christmas.

Drive safely.

There might be more than one way to skin a cat...

...but there are at least three ways to get to the top of the heap in NHL goal scoring.  NHL.com has a nice article on the three contestants for the Richard Trophy -- Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Steven Stamkos.  Perhaps most interesting are the graphics comparing the shots and locations on the ice from where the goals were scored.  Take a gander here.

A TWO-point night: Caps 6 - Penguins 3

Keep telling yourself, “it doesn’t mean a thing”… “it doesn’t mean a thing”… “it doesn’t –“ aw, shoot, it was nice, anyway.

Nothing (in the regular season, at least) much beats taking the bully’s lunch and eating it in front of his face the way the Caps did last night in beating the Pittsburgh Penguins, 6-3, at Mellon Arena. What a send off… the last memory Penguins fans will have of a home game against the Caps at Mellon Arena (unless these teams meet in the post season) will be of trudging out of the arena, listening to the public address guy announcing, “Capitals goal scored by number eight, Alex Ovechkin, assist by Nicklas Backstrom. Alex Ovechkin, his 48th goal of the season, time of the goal, 19:59…”

And just in time, too. Caps fans were getting the vapors wondering when Ovechkin might break out of his slump (four goals in his previous 18 games). And he wasn’t the only one…

- Tomas Fleischmann, who had a single goal over a nine-game stretch, had one to give him two in his last three games.

- Mike Knuble had a goal to give him goals in consecutive games for the first time since the first two games of February.

- Matt Bradley had one to give him two in his last four games after going 25 games without one.

- Nicklas Backstrom had three helpers, giving him five in his last two games, which is more than he had in his last seven games combined.  They also gave him a career best 67 assists.

Other stuff…

- With this win, the Caps won all the games in the season series against the Penguins for the first time in franchise history. They were 3-0-1 last year and 6-0-1 in 1984-1985. That’s as close as they came until last night.

- In the battle of the double nickels… Jeff Schultz: two assists, a hit, two blocked shots and a plus-5. Sergei Gonchar: an assist, a giveaway, minus-1.

- Crosby gets a goal and two assist, Ovechkin gets a couple of goals. Crosby finished even, Ovechkin plus-1 (the empty netter being the difference). Both had seven shot attempts. These guys pretty much cancel one another out. But here is the difference – Penguin wingers: two points (both assists); Caps wingers (not including Ovechkin): four goals, three assists.

-  Still, that's 7-3-10, plus-8 in four games against the Pens this year for Ovechkin.

- Matt Bradley, Professor Clutch. Each of his last two goals was the game-winner.

- Odd in a game featuring 35 hits by the Penguins that Brooks Orpik should get just one.

- What to make of Marc-Andre Fleury… with his performance last night he is 1-3-2, 4.57, .861 over the last two seasons. He didn’t get the loss last night, because coach Dan Bylsma mercifully yanked him 6:42 into the second period after Fleury allowed goals on the first two shots of the period for Washington, and Brent Johnson was tagged with the fourth, and game-winning goal.

- Getting goals 21 seconds, and 1:48 after Penguin scores stopped whatever momentum the Penguins derived from scores that might have been turning points.

- At times, Semyon Varlamov was very sharp, keenly anticipating where plays were going. But the Crosby and second Jordan Leopold goal were saves you’d have to have in a closer game.

- Shaone Morrison had a tough game last night with a minus-2, one of them courtesy of his tipping Jordan Leopold’s shot through the legs of Varlamov. Morrisonn is now minus-5 in his last six games.

- Tomas Fleischmann… three for 13 on draws? He might have the makings of a center as far as playmaking goes, but he’s 42.8 percent in the circle this season. Why that’s… well, it’s still better than Evgeni Malkin (40.8), who did not dress for this one. If those two faced off against one another, would the linesman have to toss them both because neither could win the draw? I’m getting this mental image of two guys wrestling around and poking their sticks, and the puck just lying on the red dot.

- On the other end, give credit to Jay Beagle, just called up from Hershey. He won seven of ten draws, and two of three in the defensive zone.

- One power play, one shot, one conversion, four seconds. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s eight power play opportunities in four games against the Penguins this year (one in each of the last two games). The Penguins have had 19. And with all that, the Caps still have more power play goals than the Penguins in this season’s series (four to three).

- Can’t go without mentioning how sweet that pass was from Quintin Laing from the corner to Matt Bradley heading for the net. Just the way you would draw it up.

- The Penguins are a formidable team at home, and that makes the fact that the Caps played the last two-plus periods with only five defensemen noteworthy. John Erskine left in the first with a “lower body ailment,” which we’re guessing is different than a “lower body injury.” Groin flu?

In the end, it was a win. A nice win, even. You might even convince yourself that it was a “statement” win against a perennial tormentor. But the source of that torment is what is yet to come – the playoffs. If these teams do meet again, Bruce Boudreau is right…

"I think playoffs is a whole new ballgame. Everything gets ramped up and you forget about past everythings. I don't know if it is going to affect them. They are champions; they are Stanley Cup champions. It's nice that we did it and I'm glad we did it; but I don't think it will mean a hill of beans if we see them in the playoffs."

Still, Caps fans will smile a little more broadly this morning.

Goat, The Horn Guy, and now... Jake

The Caps certainly have their collection of unique fans. One whose voice in full-throated cheer would drown out a 747 at takeoff... another whose sense of timing, chap-resistent lips, and leather lungs belt out horn calls at the right moments. Now, we have a dog that knows the proper role for a penguin... chew toy.



Like the video says... "Good Jake."

tip of prognostitorial cap to sickleandhammer over at Japers' Rink for this one.

Pierre LeBrun on the "Second Half"

Over at ESPN, Pierre LeBrun compiled (ok, Elias Sports Brueau did, but Pierre used them) the second half records of all 30 teams.  The gist of the argument is that having a good second half is a good thing for a deep playoff run.  Well, gee... lookee here...

(click pic for larger image)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, April 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And here we are at Game 41 on the road for the 2009-2010 season. And as fate would have it, the Caps will spend their last game on the road in Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins. The Caps will enter this game as the Presidents’ Trophy winner for the first time in their history. But the Presidents’ Trophy is but a stop on the road to a bigger prize – the Stanley Cup. How are these trophies different? Well, there is the history of the Stanley Cup and its travels, and then there is the history that might be added to that of the Presidents Cup after the Caps take possession of it…

The Stanley Cup… ended up on (not in) the Rideau Canal after it was drop-kicked into the canal by a member of the Ottawa Silver Seven in 1905.  Thank heavens the Canal was frozen over, or it might have sunk without a trace.

The Presidents’ Trophy… ends up on a street vendor’s table on 7th Street after it was left outside after a party at Bar Louie; no one will buy it, thinking it was a knock off like the clothes, handbags, and other items vendors were hawking.

The Stanley Cup… held for ransom after it was stolen from a photographer’s home where the Montreal Wanderers left it in 1907. No one seemed interested in getting it back to its rightful place, and it wound up back at the photographer’s house, where the lady of the house used it as a flower pot until sanity was returned.

The Presidents’ Trophy… is pilfered from Kettler Capitals Iceplex by a Caps fan who then put up for sale on eBay to pay for 2010-2011 season tickets. The minimum bid was not reached.

The Stanley Cup… left on the side of the road after Montreal Canadiens players had a flat tire and removed the Cup from the trunk to get the spare. When they got to a victory party, and it was time to drink from the Cup, the players realized what happened and went to retrieve the Cup. It was right where they left it.

The Presidents’ Trophy… becomes the model for the new “Presidents’ Gulp” 96-ounce soft drink at DC 7-11’s.

The Stanley Cup… served as the vessel in which a mortgage was burned. In 1940, New York Rangers management thought it would be a neat idea to burn the paid-off mortgage on Madison Square Garden in the Cup.

The President’s Trophy… ends up on Capitol Hill where Republicans burn in health care reform bill it. The fire is still ablaze as the 2010-2011 season ends.

The Stanley Cup… ended up on a runway with an exotic dancer at the Forum Inn, just across from Northlands Coliseum, after the Edmonton Oilers won the Cup in 1987.

The Presidents’ Trophy… goes out for a night on the town with Marion Barry.

The Stanley Cup… at least twice ended up in the bottom of a swimming pool. First in 1991, when a teammate of Mario Lemieux took the Cup on a dive to the bottom of Lemieux’ swimming pool. Then in 1993, when a few members of the Canadiens (Montrealers really have this thing about the Cup, it seems) took it to the bottom of Patrick Roy’s pool.

The Presidents’ Trophy… ends up in the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant.

Well, speaking of wastewater, the Caps head to Pittsburgh to face the Penguins for the last time this season. The Penguins are not coming into this game on a hot streak – 3-2-2 in their last seven games, giving up as well as allowing 19 goals over that stretch. They have been decent, if not overpowering, on special teams, 5-for-26 on the power play (19.2 percent) and 23-for-26 (88.5 percent) on the penalty kill, although they have allowed a power play goal in each of their past three games. The overall numbers look like this…

The Caps won the first three games of the season series (two going to extra time), outscoring the Pens 14-10 (not including a shootout goal). The Caps outscored the Penguins 8-1 in the third period and overtime of those three games. Consider that the Penguins have lost only five games when leading after two periods this season (two of those in overtime, both against the Caps), and it speaks to a special talent the Caps have had against the Penguins that other teams have not shared – dominating the Penguins late.

Individually, the usual cast of characters will be reunited, but the key for these games might be (as it was in last year’s playoffs) down the roster. And that brings us to Tyler Kennedy, who is the Penguins’ answer to Matt Bradley. Both are crash-bang types of players. Both score modestly (9-13-22 for Bradley, 12-11-23 for Kennedy), although they seem to be clutch (Kennedy has four game-winners, as does Bradley). Kennedy has an assist in three games against the Caps this year and is 0-2-2 in nine career games against Washington.

Craig Adams will not be a stranger to Caps fans. He spent six-and-a-half seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes before heading off to Chicago, and then to Pittsburgh. He doesn’t bring much in the way of offense (no goals this year in 78 games, in fact he has never scored a regular season goal for Pittsburgh in 87 total contests), but he has won Stanley Cups in both Carolina and Pittsburgh. In 37 career games against the Caps he has a goal and three assists (an assist in three games this year), but he isn’t there for points. He is there to give the team a dozen hard minutes a night (he is third on the team in hits). He is the only player in the NHL to have been born in Brunei. We’ll pause as you look that up on Google Earth.

Caps fans might also remember defenseman Mark Eaton, although the memories might be of more recent vintage. Last year, Eaton scored the only four goals in his playoff career, the last two of them coming against the Caps in their seven game series. His next goal this year will tie a career high, but don’t be thinking of him as Pittsburgh’s answer to Mike Green – his career high in goals is four. He is not there for offense, either. You might think of him as roughly analogous to Jeff Schultz. He doesn’t have Schultz’ size, but he is a sturdily-enough built defender at 6’2’, 204. But despite that size he has a total of 22 hits on the season, last among defensemen on the team (20 games minimum) and 218th among 294 defensemen in the league. It does not make him an ineffective defender, any more than the lack of big hit numbers makes one of Schultz, as Eaton is a plus-4 on the season (not that plus-minus means anything, but we thought we would toss that out there).

Marc-Andre Fleury is the goaltender of record in the Penguins’ last 11 decisions, so we expect he will get the call tonight. In this 3-2-2 run on which the Penguins find themselves, Fleury has a GAA of 2.63 and a save percentage of .901. He lost to the Caps in both games in which he appeared, both in extra time. His numbers are not exemplary in those two games – 3.76, .879. Over the last two seasons, Fleury’s numbers against the Caps have been rather ghastly – 1-3-2, 4.38, .868. But that’s regular season. He had a GAA of 3.03 in last year’s playoff series against the Caps.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Evgeni Malkin

Malkin has not registered a goal against the Caps this season. That’s not to say he’s been ineffective, he has five assists in two games. And Malkin, who has slipped a notch overall from last year’s performance, might be rounding into playoff shape…sort of. Starting with a game against Vancouver on January 16th, Malkin is 12-17-29 in 22 games. That works out to a 45-70-115 pace over 82 games. But he is also a minus-12 over that span, minus-45 pace. Not sure what to make of this, except that what Malkin taketh, he at least seems to be around when it is given away.

Washington: Mike Green

Did you know that Mike Green has never scored a regular season goal against Pittsburgh? Fifteen career games, and he has seven assists, but no goals. Didn’t score on the Penguins in last year’s playoffs, either. Green’s game has matured a lot since last year, especially on the defensive side of the ice. Discussion of Green as a Norris Trophy candidate need not have the conjunction “but” included in the sentence. But (rats!) it would be nice to have him break the schneid against this team, just to send a bit of a message that there are other things to worry about than Alex Ovechkin.

Keys:

1. Big Three. The Caps have made the third period of games a miserable time for the Penguins this year. The fact is, it is not unrepresentative of the performance of these teams. The Caps have outscored the Pens, 106-75 in third periods this season, and the Caps trail only Vancouver in the number of wins secured when trailing at the second intermission this year. But don’t get a big head over that. The Penguins are tied with the Caps in wins when trailing after two. Play hard those last 20.

2. Don’t let refs get into your head. You, dear Caps fan, probably think that the Penguins lead the league in power play opportunities and get an even larger helping on man-advantages at home. Wrong and wrong. The Penguins and Caps, joined at the hip as they are, have precisely the same number of total power play opportunities this year (305), which is only good for a tie for sixth in the league. The Pens have 152 power play opportunities at home, the Caps have had that many on the road (neat how that works out). Pittsburgh even gets whistled for penalties at home (with 150 such times, that is tied for sixth most in the league). But in three games so far this year, the Penguins have enjoyed a 15-7 advantage in power plays. Play smart, boys.

3. You’re second, so you try harder. No, not a rental car ad, but the second line. Crosby and Ovechkin are at the points of their respective careers where their performances are largely standoffs in these affairs. It could very well be the second lines where this one is won and lost. Malkin has all those points recently, but is on the ice for a lot of goals, too. Alexander Semin has nine goals in 17 career games against the Pens (including one in three games this year). Whoever wins this battle of lines might tell the tale.

In the end, the Caps are playing to send a message, and the Penguins are playing for pride and seeding (tied with, but losing the tiebreaker with, New Jersey for the Atlantic Division lead). These games always have a playoff air these days, and this one, coming so close to the playoffs, will be no exception. Mellon Arena holds no particular advantage for the Penguins in this series recently, and the Caps will add to that misery.

Caps 4 – Penguins 3

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Bruins 2 (OT)

Another night, another extra-time game for the Caps.

Last night the Caps played their eighth extra-time game in their last 14 contests, defeating the Boston Bruins 44 seconds into the overtime session, 3-2. Brooks Laich was the hero, taking one for the team, as it were, for the game-winner.

The final play started after Dennis Wideman was whistled for high-sticking Tomas Fleischmann 24 seconds into the overtime. Although Boston won the ensuing faceoff in the defensive zone, they could not clear the puck. Alex Ovechkin stole the puck in the Boston zone, and the biscuit found its way to the stick of Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom fed Alexander Semin on a pretty cross-ice feed for a one-timer that hit Laich “in the upper part of the thigh” (according to Corey Masisak’s recap), dropping at his feet. Laich’s quick hands stuffed the puck into the net faster than Bruin goalie Tuukka Rask could recover, and faster than his nervous system sent a signal to his brain that he was dangerously close to singing falsetto for some time to come.

It was an otherwise hard-fought game, the teams exchanging goals in the first, repeating the exchange in the second, then skating to a scoreless third before Laich’s heroics. The teams even split the 60 shots of the game evenly. The difference was a high-stick and a power play goal, the only man-advantage tally of the game.

Other stuff…

- Odd fact of the night… Boston defenseman Zdeno Chara was on the ice for all five goals, as was Boston center Patrice Bergeron.

- The Ross race tightened up some; Alex Ovechkin’s two points (both assists) inched him to within two points of Vancouver’s Henrik Sedin with three games to play.

- That the puck has edges is the reason Nicklas Backstrom has a 31st goal. The puck was rolling over the goal line after it snuck through Tuukka Rask’s pads, but was leaning on edge just over the line as Dennis Wideman (who really had a bad luck night) swept it out of the way.

- Speaking of Wideman, it is not often you would find a player in the heat of a playoff fight and just after losing a hard game ‘fessing up to the penalty that put him in the box as the winning goal was scored. But Wideman did just that in the post game… “It was high. It just [stinks] that it worked out that way and end ed up being a penalty they won the hockey game on after we played so well and worked so hard for the whole game.’’

- Nicklas Backstrom is one of the most underrated players in the NHL. How so? He gets a goal, two assists (including one on the game-winner), nine shot attempts, three hits, two takeaways, wins eight of 12 draws, and doesn’t get a star. Didn’t even get the hard hat (Laich got it).

- Jeff Schultz… almost 23 minutes, four blocked shots, plus-1. He was on the ice for a goal against, so Caps fans no doubt will be called for him to be waived, or drawn and quartered, or something.

- Any night that Tomas Fleischmann has more hits (three) than shots on goal (one), might be considered odd. But winning six of 18 draws wasn’t so much odd as abuse. Especially hard was losing six of seven in the offensive zone (all five against Patrice Bergeron, and yes, Bergeron is a superior faceoff man at 57 percent for the year). That has to improve.

- You could tell Mike Green was out. The defensemen had a total of seven shot attempts or about a good night’s worth for Green.

- It is going to be tough to knock Jose Theodore out of the number one spot. He had his war face on for this one, those bang-bang pad saves on Michael Ryder mid-way through the first period perhaps being the key sequence of the game. If the Bruins score there, maybe they start thinking a little better about themselves offensively.

- David Steckel had a night in the circle he’d like to forget. He lost ten of 13, including nine of ten in the defensive zone. He lost the draw (to Bergeron, who won 18 of 26) that led to the Bruins’ tying goal in the first period with less than two seconds left.

- Ovechkin is close, oh so close. Two posts, and a couple of other opportunities that just didn’t quite make it suggest he’s about to break out. Truth be told, we wouldn’t mind if that breakout came in Game 1 of the playoffs instead of Games 80, 81, and 82 of the regular season.

- And we’re not sure how it is that Bergeron managed to get inside of Shaone Morrison down the middle with Joe Corvo having moved off to play the puck carrier on Boston’s second goal. However it happened, Morrisonn could only wave his stick at Bergeron as he deked and scored.

- Mike Knuble came into the game having scored one goal in his previous 14 games. Getting one, and getting one ugly, might be just the thing to get Knuble going again. It sure woke up Kanoobie.

In the end, two points is two points. Again, it was not stylish, but just a lunch pail kind of win against a team the Caps might yet see in the first round of the playoffs.

Does anybody want this trophy?

The Richard Trophy, that is...

Sidney Crosby... three goals in his last 13 games
Alex Ovechkin... four goals in his last 17 games
Steven Stamkos... four goals in his last 12 games
Patrick Marleau... two goals in his last 12 games

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, April 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps are back home tonight to take on the Boston Bruins at Verizon Center. The Caps are your newly minted Presidents’ Trophy winner for the 2009-2010 season, the first time the club has achieved this honor. And in honor of the occasion, yours truly has assembled the greatest collection of Presidential timber since Thomas Jefferson dined alone…

…or something like that.

We have John Adams – lawyer, author, revolutionary, delegate to the First and Second Continental Congresses, ambassador, Vice President, and second President of the United States. Oh, and HBO film star. Mr. President, you have some special perspective on this historical moment in Caps history, I’m sure. What drives a person to such heights of achievement?

“A desire to be observed, considered, esteemed, praised, beloved, and admired by his fellows is one of the earliest as well as the keenest dispositions discovered in the heart of man.”

I see… and my notes indicate that you are something of a hockey fan, particularly the physical aspect of the game. You, I take it, are not a fan of the instigator rule…

“Arms in the hands of citizens may be used at individual discretion... in private self-defense.”

Ulysses S. Grant, you served as both General-in-Chief of the Union Army during the American Civil War, and you served two terms as Commander in Chief. I’m also told that you are a particular fan of the Caps and Coach Bruce Boudreau. You seem especially taken by Boudreau’s philosophy. I suppose because it mirrors your own…

“In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins.”

And the Presidents Trophy represents the culmination of a long season of effort with its ups and downs. I guess it makes for a special kind of camaraderie, would you say, President Grant?

“The friend in my adversity I shall always cherish most. I can better trust those who helped to relieve the gloom of my dark hours than those who are so ready to enjoy with me the sunshine of my prosperity.”

Andrew Jackson – “Old Hickory.” No lack of toughness in your background. I’ll bet you have a bit of advice for those who would make the leap from the Presidents Trophy to the Stanley Cup…

“You must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing.”

Dwight D. Eisenhower… general, war hero, university president, and President of the United States. You, as much as any American President, have experienced the sting of battle, but you have a different perspective when it comes to just how hard it is to win consistently in a fashion that earns a team this honor.

“Farming looks mighty easy when your plow is a pencil and you're a thousand miles from the corn field.”

Or if the plow is a blog, eh?…

Tonight the Caps take the ice as the Presidents’ Trophy winner, the top team in the NHL for the regular season. Yes, there is another season looming, but for the moment this is a pleasant place in which the club has never found itself. At the other end of the spectrum there are the Boston Bruins, a team that sits precariously among the top-eight in the East, tied with the Flyers for seventh, two points ahead of the ninth-place Rangers, and three ahead of the 10th-place Thrashers.

The Bruins are a club that has had a difficult time getting any traction lately. They have not won more than two games in a row since the Olympic break (9-8-1). It is hard to believe that a team could compile such a weak record with a goals-against-per-game of 2.06 over those last 18 games. But an offense that manages only a 2.36 goals-for average over that time isn’t one that is going to take advantage of the defense and goaltending it is getting. Here is how bad it is. Since the Olympic break the Bruins have allowed more than two goals in a game seven times. They lost all of them (0-6-1). Of their nine wins three have come via shutout, all three coming in their last four wins. Here is how the overall numbers shake out…

It puts a lot of pressure on Tuukka Rask, who appears to have wrested the number one goaltender job away from Tim Thomas. Not that being the Bruins’ top goalie is a breeze these days. Since the Olympic break, Rask has a 1.71 GAA and a .935 save percentage with two shutouts. For all that, he is 6-5-0 over that span of time. Rask will move up in weight class as far as an opponent’s offensive capabilities are concerned, and he has never faced the Caps.

In “best versus worst” offense, the comparisons are stark, and the table above doesn’t do it justice. Here are some comparisons…

- 50 point scorers: Caps 6 – Bruins 1 (Patrice Bergeron)
- 20-goal scorers: Caps 7 – Bruins 1 (Marco Sturm)
- Players with 10 or more power play goals: Caps 4 – Bruins 0
- Players with 15 or more even-strength goals: Caps 6 - Bruins 2
- Alex Ovechkin has more even-strength goals than the top two Bruins combined
- Both Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have more power play points than the top two Bruins combined
- Marco Sturm’s 21 goals to lead the B’s would rank eighth on the Caps
- Bergeron’s 50 points as top point-getter would rank seventh on the Caps

The Bruins have had one player with a multi-goal game since the Olympic break (Miroslav Satan, against Toronto on Saturday). The Caps have had eight such performances since the break. So what is with the top Bruin goal scorers, anyway?...

Marco Sturm leads the club with 21 goals, but he has only three in 18 games since the Olympic break, none in his last dozen games. According to the Bruin media guide, Sturm once worked as a BMW car mechanic. Well, he had better tune up his scoring if the Bruins are going to hold on. In 25 career games against the Caps he is 7-8-15 (scoreless in two games this year).

Patrice Bergeron has had a pretty good run since the break (although with Boston, it's all relative). In 16 games since the break he has six goals (6-7-13). He has a goal in two games against the Caps this year and is 4-11-15 in 17 career games.

David Krejci is the closest thing the B's have had to an offensive force since the break. He is tied with Bergeron with six goals in the 18 games he has been in since the break (6-12-18). He has a goal in two games against the Caps this season; 2-2-4 in 10 career games.

Blake Wheeler came out of the break looking as if he might be a go-to guy for the Bruins down the stretch, getting four goals in five games from March 7th through March 15th. But being a go-to guy is a lot to ask of a 23-year old. Wheeler has gone dormant lately, going without a point in his last ten games. He doesn’t have a point against the Caps, either – this year or any other (0-0-0 in six career games).

It is not as if the Bruins aren’t firing on all cylinders, either.  Having lost their biggest offensive threat – Marc Savard – to injury means that they have few cylinders on which to fire.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Zdeno Chara

Chara might be the hottest Bruin on offense (2-4-6 in his last seven games). But his role is going to be keeping the top line for the Caps in check, specifically applying himself like a 6’9” 260 pound fur stole about the shoulders of Alex Ovechkin. One would have to say that Chara’s results have been “uneven” – Ovechkin is 9-8-17 in 14 career games against the Bruins. Chara leads the club’s defensemen in ice time, but over the past four years there has been a cut in his ice time – from 27:57 in 2006-2007 to 25:13 this year. It is still a lot of ice time (12th in the league), but is he losing a step? That could spell trouble for the B’s in this game.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Quietly, perhaps, Semin has scored goals in goals in six of his last nine games (7-2-9). In 16 games since the break he is plus-6 and has been a “minus” player only twice. Consistency at both ends of the ice is something the Caps need going forward. It will be interesting to see whether he can continue this over the last four games of the season given that the Caps’ final place in the standings is secure.

Keys:

1. 0.94. That is the goals scored differential per game between these teams at 5-on-5.

2. Six. Boston has a reputation for being a fine defensive team, but this is the total goal differential between these teams over the entire season for goals allowed per game at 5-on-5. What’s more, it is the Caps who have allowed fewer goals (129 to 135). If the Caps can keep this a 5-on-5 game, they can compete defensively with the Bruins.

3. In case it isn’t clear… MAKE THE BRUINS PAY AT FIVE-ON-FIVE.  That becomes especially important given that teams can't score against the Bruins' PK, and the Caps really shown any consistent ability to stop anyone's power play.

In the end, we’re getting to the end, and it will be hard to maintain focus this week. That is an especially hard thing to fight through when the opponent is still trying to hang onto a playoff spot. If there was one night we would be picking the other guys to win, this would be it.

But you know better…

Caps 3 – Bruins 2

Your Presidents' Trophy Winner

Thirteen franchises have won a Presidents' Trophy in the NHL before this season.  With the San Jose Sharks losing to the Colorado Avalanche in overtime tonight, 5-4, the Washington Capitals become the 14th franchise to win the Trophy.

Congratulations to the players, coaches, staff, and managers of the Capitals organization.  It is a trophy well-earned.

A Face Made for Hockey

Anton Gustafsson dressed tonight for the Hershey Bears in his AHL debut.  We must say, his official picture at the AHL web site makes no mistake -- this is a hockey player...

Gus just registered his first pro point in tonight's game between the Bears and the Syracuse Crunch oops, make that the Norfolk Admirals (an assist on a goal by fellow rookie Cody Eakin).  Congratulations, Gus... hope it's the first of many.

Game 7

We are a month removed from the trading deadline, a day on which (according to TSN.ca) there were 31 trades involving 55 players and 35 draft picks. Teams move assets around in hopes of finding a spark, of finding the right mix for the home stretch, of finding that last piece of the puzzle. Other teams do so looking to the future – collecting draft picks or prospects in hopes that a year or two from now they will again be competitive, that they will be a contender.

The Washington Capitals made four trades on that day…

1. They acquired defenseman Joe Corvo from the Carolina Hurricanes for defenseman Brian Pothier, prospect forward Oskar Osala, and a second round draft pick in 2011.

2. They re-acquired defenseman Milan Jurcina from Columbus for a sixth round draft pick in 2010.

3. They acquired forward Eric Belanger from Minnesota for a second round draft pick in 2010.

4. They acquired Scott Walker from Carolina for a seventh round draft pick in 2010.

None of these deals could be considered a “blockbuster,” but they were subtle changes that might be considered part of a larger piece. And we cannot help thinking that what moves the Caps made this year, and especially at the trading deadline, along with deals made last summer were with one game in mind.

Game 7

Rewind back to last spring. The Caps had worked their way through a tough seven-game series with the New York Rangers. Then, they battled the Pittsburgh Penguins through the ups and downs (and the overtimes) of six games, split evenly between the teams. And that brought the teams to Game 7. We will not revisit that game in its result, but rather in its lineup. The lineup for the Caps.

The Caps could still boast Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Alexander Semin in the lineup for Game 7 of that series, but that is not where the series was being fought or decided. Through six games of that series, the top line for the Caps (Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Viktor Kozlov) had the advantage over the top line of the Penguins (Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz, and Bill Guerin) to a virtual standstill, 10-13-23, plus-10 to 8-12-20, plus-6.

The other three lines of forwards for the Caps press that advantage any further, though, going 8-16-24, minus-7. Meanwhile, the other three lines of Penguin forwards were checking in at 8-14-22, minus-10 through six games.

Game 7, though, was another matter. In the 6-2 series-deciding game, the Penguins did get a superior performance from its top line, outdueling the Caps, 3-2-5, plus 3 to 1-0-1, minus-1. But the Penguins also got contributions from the lower tiers of the forward lines, the other three lines going 2-5-7, plus-3 in that final game to the Caps’ comparable lines going 1-1-2, minus-5.

On defense, it was a bit of a reversal among the top pairs. Through six games the Caps’ top pair (Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn) went 0-5-5, plus-minus-4. The Penguins’ top pair of Brooks Orpik and Sergei Gonchar (except for a brief spell by Kris Letang when Gonchar was injured, which is accounted for here) had an advantage, going 2-6-8, plus 1.

On the second and third pairs, though, the Penguins had a clear and distinct advantage in the series’ first six games, going 3-6-9, minus-4 to the Caps’ 1-3-4, plus-6.

In Game 7, the Penguins put both advantages to use, with their top pair outdoing the Caps’ (0-2-2, plus-1 to 0-0-0, minus-5) and the other two pairs going 1-0-1, plus-2 for the Penguins to 0-0-0, plus-1 for the Caps.

What Game 7 brought into clear relief was a stunning lack of depth for the Caps, in performance, certainly, but also perhaps with respect to skill. One could see how the Caps might not have been ready for prime time, given the performance down the lineup compared to that of Pittsburgh. It is this that Caps – a team that eschewed both the big free agent signing last summer and the splashy trade at this year’s deadline – appear to have addressed in their personnel moves since that disastrous Game 7. Compare the lineups of that Game 7 last spring against the Penguins against what might be a playoff lineup for the Caps…

At center the Caps replaced Sergei Fedorov (no goals, four assists in the Penguin series last spring) with Brendan Morrison, signed last summer as a free agent. Eric Belanger was obtained in trade last month to bolster the middle. Hopefully, what this does is keep the Caps from having to dress Jay Beagle (not a bad player, but not likely a player who will anchor any of the forward lines on a contender at this point in his career). It provides for playing David Steckel in a more suitable 12 minutes a game than the 16 he was getting in last spring’s playoffs.

At left wing the Caps have more options on the lower half of the forward lines. Jason Chimera (obtained in trade) brings more speed and durability than does Boyd Gordon, and both he and Scott Walker (also obtained in trade) supply more grit. Chimera also can fill in passably on the third line in the event (such as last night) Tomas Fleischmann moves up to the second line center spot.

On the right side, Mike Knuble is perhaps the biggest upgrade at any position that changed from last spring to now. Viktor Kozlov had two goals and two assists in the series against the Penguins last year but managed only one shot on goal in Game 7. And, he was not a net presence – it has never been his style. Knuble, on the other hand, is something of a Penguin killer (23 goals in 53 career games coming into the season) and can make goalies’ lives difficult with his ability to create traffic in front.

The more subtle difference might be Eric Fehr replacing Chris Clark on the right side. Injuries over two seasons sapped Clark of much of his effectiveness, and that was not more evident than in last season’s Penguin series when Clark collected a single point (a goal in Game 4). At this point in his career, Fehr is probably a more effective forechecking presence, and he is among the most efficient goal scorers in the league so far this season.

On defense, as much grief as Jeff Schultz took last year from Caps fans (especially after a dismal Game 1 against the Rangers in which he was injured), the Caps could hide his absence against the Rangers for the last six games of the first round series. The Rangers just did not have much in the way of offense. But against the Penguins, the cracks in the defense appeared and Schultz’ absence was missed. Part of the Penguins’ ability to bombard goalie Semyon Varlamov relentlessly was the Caps’ inability to move the puck smartly against the aggressive Penguin forecheck. Mike Green might not have been himself, but Milan Jurcina and either John Erskine or Tyler Sloan on the back line provided too juicy an opportunity for the Penguins to cause mischief in the Caps’ end. And the Caps received almost no offensive contribution from that trio – a goal (Jurcina) and an assist (Sloan) in seven games.

Then there is the matter of Mike Green. In last year’s series against the Penguins, Green was on the ice for 14 of the Penguins’ 26 goals in the series, including five times being on the ice for the last Penguin goal scored in a game. Green, who by Game 7 was rendered completely ineffective, was on the ice for the last four goals the Penguins scored in the 6-2 defeat in Game 7.

The Caps sought to remedy the defensive shortcomings with the addition of Joe Corvo at the trade deadline. Corvo has the capacity to spell Green, who before Corvo’s arrival logged a ton of ice time (almost 25 minutes) in the playoffs. It bears noting that Corvo averaged even more ice time in last year’s playoffs than did Green. If Corvo can make productive use of the extra minutes he might get that a Brian Pothier would not (especially on the power play), Green should be fresher the deeper he goes in a game, in a series, or through the playoff rounds.

The subtle part of this is the addition of Milan Jurcina in trade after having dealt him to Coiumbus earlier in the season. With Jeff Schultz sidelined last year, Jurcina and John Erskine took regular turns on the blue line. This year, in a playoff situation, Jurcina fills perhaps a more suitable role as a depth defenseman, as might John Erskine as Schultz returns. But the wild card here is John Carlson, whose rise has been rapid through the Caps’ system. Don’t forget, Carlson spent most of last year (73 games, regular season and playoffs) in juniors and the year before that was in the USHL. He did get a taste of pro hockey late last year, though, dressing for 16 playoff games with Hershey. And this year, he split his time between the Bears (48 games) and the Caps (20 games), apparently now with the parent club to stay.

Carlson, Jurcina, and Erskine looks a lot better in the 6-7-8 defense roles than a 5-6-7 of Jurcina, Erskine, and Sloan did as the season came to an end last spring.

Injuries late this season might have made General Manager George McPhee look prescient in obtaining Joe Corvo, Milan Jurcina, Scott Walker, and Eric Belanger at the trading deadline. But there are perhaps seven faces that could play in a Game 7 this spring that did not play in Game 7 for the Caps last year. Those seven players add depth, skill, and grit where it was lacking last year.

Last year the Caps learned a hard lesson that culminated with the Game 7 blowout. It wasn’t “Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin” that decided the series; it was the lower tiers of the forward lines and defense that did. And the Penguins won that battle. One might look at what the Caps did over the past nine months and think that lessons learned the hard way in Game 7 against the Penguins last spring will be applied this spring should the same situation present itself.

Thanks folks...

You keep readin' 'em, we'll keep writin' 'em...

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Blue Jackets 2

Area 51.

Nope, not the alien airfield in the desert Southwest of the United States, but the undiscovered country into which the Caps skated tonight with a thrilling (certainly for this time of year) 3-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets in Columbus.  It was the team's franchise-best 51st win of the season.

The Caps threatened to skate the home team right out of Nationwide Arena early, scoring three goals before the game was 14 minutes old. Tallies by Alexander Semin and Tomas Fleischmann on the Caps’ first four shots chased Mathieu Garon, who had been knocked woozy when he was upended in his crease by Jason Chimera on a play that could have been another goal. The play started when Chimera skated in on a break, but was upset by Anton Stralman, both players tumbling into Garon. After Fleischmann’s goal, coach Claude Noel sent in Steve Mason.

Mason, sitting after sustaining a shoulder injury against Detroit, yielded a goal on a slapper by Mike Green through a Brooks Laich screen, but otherwise slammed the door on any further scoring by the Caps, stopping 22 of 23 shots he faced.

It ended up being the Jose and Mike show over the last two periods. Green was described by coach Bruce Boudreau in his post-game press conference as “fabulous, just fabulous.” He wasn’t lying. It might have been Green’s best performance as a defenseman this season. He was on top of his skates, he was a force in his own end, and when the Blue Jackets seemed to get opportunities in the Caps’ zone, Green was there to snuff them out.

As for Theodore, he was the Dutch boy (ok, French-Canadian boy) with his finger in the dike all night. Too often, defensemen not named “Green” were backing off to give the Jackets all the room they might have wanted in the offensive zone, and the forwards certainly were not doing their part to fill the gaps. But Theodore was there to stop 34 of 36 shots in what was his best performance in perhaps a month, given the support he was getting in front of him.

Other stuff…

-- When Steve Mason is on, he is something to watch. A real economy of movement, and even as he is a big goalie, he makes himself bigger by being calm and in position. It wasn’t the Caps going into a shell in the last two periods, Mason had a whale of a game.

-- Alex Ovechkin (as Joe Beninati pointed out during the game) has never scored against Mason, nor has he scored against Mathieu Garon. Yet, he has four goals in six career games against the Jackets. Against whom has he scored, Joe B. asked? Three against Pascal Leclaire, including two in his first game as a Cap, and one against Fredrik Norrena, the game winner in a 4-3 overtime win in February 2008.

-- Green got his 19th and the game-winner on a slap shot 13:44 in, but the play was made when he made a great stop on an attempted clear by Fedor Tyutin on a Caps 5-on-3 power play.

-- Anyone wonder why the Caps traded for Milan Jurcina to come back to the Caps saw the reason tonight. The thought of Tyler Sloan as the “depth defenseman” is not confidence inspiring. He had a difficult time tonight.

-- The disallowed goal on Chimera was the right call, but for the wrong reason, in our opinion. The boys in Toronto apparently ruled that Mason had covered the puck, but the applicable rule there would seem to us to have been Rule 78.5 (ix): “Apparent goals shall be disallowed by the Referee and the appropriate announcement made by the Public Address Announcer for the following reasons… When a goalkeeper has been pushed into the net together with the puck after making a save.”

-- Only fourth time this season that Ovechkin’s “minus” equaled or surpassed his total shots on goal… minus-two and two shots.

-- Does Eric Belanger just know these guys better? 11-for-15 on draws.

-- Even though Mason had a whale of a game, we can’t be impressed when the two top shot producers for the Caps were both defensemen (Green, Joe Corvo).

-- And speaking of Green, he was the only Cap charged with a giveaway tonight. Nice to think about, and also not true.

-- The Caps were credited with no takeaways. Not nice to think about, and also not true.

-- Rick Nash used to be a tall, skinny guy who seemed to skate a little too much in the middle of the ice for a winger. No more. The guy is a beast. Six shots, two assists, and he showed a deft hand in passing the puck.

-- How rare is a “minus-2” performance for Alex Ovechkin? It was his first since December 28th and only his second this season.

-- Nine shots, one goal, six power plays… not too bad. But three shots and a goal against on those same power plays? Not good.

-- I get that it’s late in the season, and the Caps are trying to dial down the ice time for some guys (not, apparently, Ovechkin who got 23:50)… but a world where Sloan gets more ES ice time (15:42) than every defenseman not named “Schultz” (and only 17 seconds less than him) doesn’t seem right.

-- How often does David Steckel take the collar on faceoffs in his own zone? He was 0-for-5 tonight.

In the end, it was a win well-earned. Not flashy, not stylish, but a meat-and-potatoes kind of win. Get used to it. That’s the way a lot of them will have to come from now on.

Keyboard Certainties

“If the playoffs started today, the Flyers would travel to Washington to face the top-seeded Capitals - a guaranteed quick exit.”

-- Frank Seravalli, of the Philadelphia Daily News, in his recap this morning of the Flyers’ 1-0 loss to Montreal last night


“The Bruins will finish in the neighbourhood of 30 points behind last year's 116 and are missing 77 goals from the 2008-09 campaign. And, if they do make the playoffs, they are likely to be fed to the Capitals.”

-- Jim Hughson, CBC Sports, April 2nd


“…the Habs are still a 35-percent favorite to be the Capitals' (first-round sacrifice) finish eighth.”

-- Greg Wyshynski, “Puck Daddy,” April 1st

It’s nice and all to think that the Capitals are this hockey behemoth, this juggernaut that has a gold plated path to the Stanley Cup finals, but here is your fun thought for the day as the Caps close in on the Presidents Trophy…

Of the past nine Presidents Trophy winners, three won the Stanley Cup…

…and three were bounced in the first round.

That’s why they play the games.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Blue Jackets, April 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, the Caps go back on the road for their penultimate road contest of the season.

“Penultimate?”

Yeah, cuz, it means “next to last.”

“Then why don’t you just say, ‘next to last’?”

Just trying to throw some spice in here, Cheerless. The Caps are playing Columbus, you know…. Might be the most boring team in the league.

“Don’t mind him, he struggles with words like ‘cat’ and ‘dog.”

“I just don’t see what a ‘pen’ has to do with it… you guys use these new fangled keyboards for everything these days.”

No, it comes from the word “penult”… the next to last syllable of a word.

“Penult?”

Or “paene ultima,” from the Latin for “almost the last.”

“’Ultima?’... I think my last car was an ‘Ultima’… comes from the Latin for ‘ripped me off.’”

Guys?... We have a game tonight. Columbus?

“What’s that, cuz, Latin for ‘jiminy crickets, we suck?’”

Cheerless might be on to something there. Tonight’s foe, the Columbus Blue Jackets, started the season in fine fashion, going 12-6-2 in their first 20 games. But after knocking off Dallas, 4-1, to reach that record, the Jackets fell hard and fast out of the playoff picture. Since Game 20, Columbus has had, in order, losing streaks of five, three, nine, four, three, and five on their way to a 20-27-11 record.  The overall numbers look like this...

Columbus has managed to stop the bleeding – far too late, of course – going 7-3-2 in their last 12 games since their last losing streak of consequence. In those 11 games they have outscored their opponents 40-34, and they scored four or more goals five times in the process. Not exactly “Hitchcockian,” but coach Ken Hitchcock – known for his tight checking, low scoring style of play – was relieved of duties on February 3rd in favor of Claude Noel.

One thing the Jackets have not had in this 12-game run is a potent power play. After lighting up Anaheim for three power play goals on six opportunities on March 9th, Columbus is 5-for-41 since (12.2 percent), although they do have goals with the man advantage in four of their last five games.

The penalty killers are 37-for-45 in this 7-3-2 run (82.2 percent). While respectable, they have allowed a power play goal in four of the last five games in which they had a shorthanded situation to kill off.

Rick Nash came out of the Olympic Games in a bit of a funk – his three-game streak without a point was his longest such streak of the year. But he might have been feeling the effects of a lower body injury that would then keep him out of the lineup for four games. Since returning to the lineup against Minnesota on March 19th, he is 5-3-8, plus-5 in eight games. Nash has played against the Caps seven times in his career and has seven goals to show for it. That number includes a 1-2-3 performance in a 5-4 overtime win against the Caps on November 1st.

What Rick Nash produces on the right wing, the Jackets hope for on the left from Kristian Huselius. And he certainly has been providing it of late. In has points in eight of his last ten games on his way to a 6-10-16, plus-7 scoring line. He has not been especially productive against the Caps, though. He was held without a point in the game on November 1st, and he is 5-4-9 in 20 career games against Washington.

It was R.J. Umberger who scored the overtime winner against the Caps last November, and he is coming into this game on a hot streak: 2-7-9 in his last nine games, with a point in eight of those games (6-6-12 in 15 career games against the Caps).

In goal, number one netminder Steve Mason jammed his shoulder while making a save in a 3-2 loss to Detroit on Thursday. If he cannot go (and Aaron Portzline at the Columbus Dispatch thinks it unlikely), then the goaltending duties will fall to Mathieu Garon, who is 3-0-1 in this latest 7-3-1 run for Columbus. He has a 2.23 goals against and .922 save percentage to go along with the win-loss record. He has had similar effectiveness against the Caps in his career: 2-1-1, 2.23 in five career appearances.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Nathan Paetsch

Paetsch (a former Capitals draft pick) was the player coming over from Buffalo when Raffi Torres was sent to the Sabres (the Jackets also received a second round draft pick). With Kris Russell likely out of the lineup, Paetsch would appear to get a sweater. He has played in only eight of the 14 games Columbus has played since the trading deadline. In those games he has not yet registered a point and is minus-5 in an average of 10:25 in ice time. If he is on the ice, the Jackets might be especially vulnerable.

Washington: Jose Theodore

Since losing to Tampa Bay on January 12th, Theodore is 17-0-3 in 20 decisions. But in his last seven appearances he has a GAA of 3.27 and a save percentage of .899, including an early night against Calgary when he allowed three goals on ten shots in barely ten minutes of work. These are not necessarily the sort of numbers one would like to see from the number one goaltender heading into the playoffs. The high goals-allowed total actually goes back to early February. In 13 games played since February 4th, Theodore has allowed three or more goals ten times (four or more four times). Columbus is not an especially potent team on offense and is 22nd in first period goals. This sets up for Theodore as a night to get back in a groove.

Keys:

What keys? It comes down to this. Columbus is neither a “desperate team” looking for a playoff spot, nor can the play a “spoiler” role, seeing as how the Caps have clinched their division, the Eastern Conference, and can clinch the league title with three more points. And, the guy who got two goals in the last seven minutes of the first meeting of these teams (Raffi Torres) is in Buffalo. The only way the Caps lose this game is if: a) they get lost getting to the arena, or b) they just don’t show up figuratively.

Caps 4 – Blue Jackets 3

You Make the Call

The NHL is allegedly cracking down (again) on head shots.  Well, does this action by the Atlanta Thrashers' Colby Armstrong qualify?

The new rule against head-hunting emphasizes a prohibition on "“lateral, back-pressure or blindside hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or the principal point of contact.” Under a strict reading of that language, the rule might not apply here. Mathieu Perreault and Armstrong meet, more or less, face to face (or as this screen capture from the Comcast Sports Net feed suggests, elbow to face). No "lateral, back-pressure, or blindside" occurrence in evidence there.

But actively thrusting an elbow at the head of an opponent is covered under other rules. Rule 46.1 defines elbowing as "the use of an extended elbow in a manner that may or may not cause injury."

Further, Rule 46.3 gives the referee the discretion to call a major penalty on "any player or goalkeeper who uses his elbow to foul an opponent. A major penalty must be imposed under this rule for a foul resulting in an injury to the face or head of an opponent."

Rule 46.4 allows for further penalty: "The Referee, at his discretion, may assess a match penalty if, in his judgment, the player or goalkeeper attempted to or deliberately injured his opponent by elbowing."

Whether Armstrong could be cited under rules for the maximum treatment here under Rule 46.4 is doubtful (a lot of Caps fans would say "yes," Thrasher fans would disagree). But it is a no brainer that Rule 46.1 applies, and certainly given the enthusiastic manner in which Armstrong applied his elbow to the jaw of Perreault, the referee's discretion to call a major penalty cannot be discounted... if you're really in the business of trying to stop head shots.

However, no penalty was called on the play. And, Armstrong is not a "repeat offender." Despite a reputation for sharp elbows, he has no record (at least in any search we did) of suspension by the league.

Will Armstrong miss time over this? We're betting on "no." Why?  Well, it's in what Armstrong had to say about the play...

“I just banged a forecheck on him. I had a pretty good line on him. He’s a pretty good little shifty player and I think he kind of bailed out there at the end. I saw the replay. If anything I just tried to get a piece of him. I didn’t mean to get my arms up in his kitchen like that. It just happened so fast. I just tried to get a piece of him. I talked to the ref afterward and he said he ducked out of the way and fell backward (emphasis added).”

Pereault ducking out of the way is not the action to which a penalty can be applied.  The issue is Armstrong and his elbow.  All Perreault's actions did was to enable him to avoid what might have been serious injury as a result of that elbow.  If the league decides not to give Armstrong a vacation, you can decide for yourself if the league is serious about eliminating head shots on the ice or just writing rules for the sake of appearing to do something about the problem.

A TWO-point night: Caps 2 - Thrashers 1

You have to walk before you can run, and that was the case as the Capitals took down the Atlanta Thrashers last night, 2-1. It wasn’t a stylish game by any stretch of the imagination, but it was a win – one performed in a workmanlike fashion that was absent during the three-game losing streak that ended with this game.

Semyon Varlamov probably helped himself more than any other Capital did in this one, making coach Bruce Boudreau’s decision just a little bit harder to make as to who to start in Game 1 of the playoffs in a couple of weeks. Varlamov stopped 19 of 20 shots, and even on the one that got through there was a breakdown in defensive coverage that allowed Tim Stapleton to break free alone down the middle for a scoring chance.

Although there was that breakdown, it is hard to argue overall with an effort that allowed the Thrashers to produce only 20 shots on goal and only 52 shot attempts (the Caps had fewer, if you can believe that – 48). It was a game that was hard to watch and for long stretches resembled more a game you might have seen in the NHL of 2003, not 2010 – a lot of skating back and forth to little productive purpose.

Other stuff…

- Nicklas Backstrom reached 30 goals to give the Caps three 30-goal scorers, the second consecutive year (and third in four seasons) it has happened. Mike Knuble has an outside shot at making it four (he has 26). The Caps have not had four 30-goal scorers since the 1985-1986 season (no, we are not counting the full-year totals of late season pick up Dino Ciccarelli in 1989).

- 50 wins ties a franchise record. With five games left, the Caps have a chance to tie or surpass the league-high win total of last year (53, Boston and San Jose), but the post-lockout record of 58 wins (Detroit, 2006) is out of reach.

- Last season, five clubs hit the 50-win plateau, the Caps being one of them. This year, it is possible that the Caps finish as the only club to do so (they are almost certain to be the only club in the East to do it). San Jose, Chicago, and Phoenix have 47 wins, all with five or fewer games left to play.

- Good things happen in the Bradley Corner. Beating Chris Chelios to a loose puck deep in the corner, shrugging Chelios off, walking down the goal line, and stuffing the puck under goalie Ondrej Pavelec, it was a power move that just hadn’t been a part of Bradley’s game lately. I broke a 25-game streak without a goal, dating back to January 19th against Detroit.

- Chelios explained it this way… ““I didn’t see [Jason] Chimera coming down the boards, and me and [Max Afinogenov] got caught on the same guy. I never even saw Bradley coming. It’s unfortunate. It was a miscommunication.” Didn’t see Chimera, didn’t see Bradley. The eyesight tends to go at his age.

- It’s hard to score without the puck, especially when you start plays losing it. The Caps won 11 of 17 defensive zone draws (David Steckel was 7 for 8).

- Brooks Laich might not have looked especially stylish in his cage, but he killed penalties (1:24 in PK time and a shot while shorthanded, although that was a long-distance one), managed a couple of shots from in close, and had a hit and a blocked shot for good measure.

- Maybe it’s hometown scoring, but the six defensemen for the Caps were credited with but a single giveaway (John Erskine). Makes a goalie happy, that.

- Eric Fehr had what might be called an “interesting” game. In nine minutes and change he had no points, no shots, no shot attempts, no hits, no giveaways, no takeaways, no blocked shots, did not take a faceoff, and neither a goal nor a penalty happened when he was on the ice. A score sheet doesn’t get any cleaner than that.

- One power play for the Caps, three for the Thrashers. Not sure if that was a product of the style in which the game was played or if Dennis LaRue and Justin St. Pierre had their playoff whistles in use.

- With an assist, Mike Green tied his career-best point total of last year (73). He remains the only defenseman in the league averaging more than a point a game (1.01), he leads all defensemen in both goals and assists, and as a practical matter the only difference between this year and last year is the consecutive goals streak he put together last year. As fashionable as it is in a lot of corners of the hockey media to trash his game, a guy who has 49 goals, 146 points, and is a plus-59 over 140 games covering two seasons is playing pretty damned well.

- You could say Alex Ovechkin is in a “slump,” but with an assist last night, that makes for points in three straight games, five of six, and eight of ten. When pitchers don’t have their “stuff” in baseball, the really good ones find a way to grind out wins. Ovechkin doesn’t have his “stuff,” but he’s still grinding out points. Now, if only that Sedin guy would stop…

- Something to watch for Saturday… Tomas Fleischmann skated only 9:52 in this one, his lowest ice time number of the season. He had two shots on goal in 11 shifts (his only shots on goal over the last three games). Does he take a seat against Columbus on Saturday?

In the end, a win is a win is a win. Forget that it is “just” Atlanta. That is a team that is achingly close to a playoff spot, three teams sitting only two points ahead of them. They are the epitome of the desperate team. This was a good win and a good way to break out of the doldrums of a three-game losing streak. Now it’s on the road to Columbus where they can make it two in a row. As the legendary manager Lou Brown once said, “that’s called a winning streak. It has happened before.”