We Need a Name

It started last year when the Caps started winning. Fans started showing up in greater numbers, and a theme was rolled out -- "Rock the Red." Since then, Verizon Center has become one of the loudest, most crowded hockey venues in the NHL. It is, at times -- shoot, most of the time -- an eccentric mix of personaltities and practices.

You have "The Horn" and "The Voice." You have what might be the signature call of Caps Nation -- "Unleash the Fury" -- that generally comes in the late stages of the third period of home games. You have a new entry, the "It's all your fault" cheer, directed at the opposing goaltender in the midst of fishing pucks out of his net after a Caps score.

The whole thing is starting to resemble a college basketball atmosphere, where some arenas and fan groups make up some of the most intimidating places an opponent in any sport can play. A Caps game at Verizon Center is starting to take on some of the characteristics of, say, a Cameron Indoor Stadium, where the "Cameron Crazies" have raised intimidation of opponents to an art form. Or, for the sheer size -- 4,000 students in "Izzone" t-shirts ringing the lower bowl -- and volume, "The Izzone" at Breslin Center on the campus of my alma mater, Michigan State University. Or the "Rock, Chalk, Jay-hawk" chant at Allen Fieldhouse, home to the Kansas Jayhawks.

The legion of red-clad Caps fans packing Verizon Center needs a name, something to distinguish it from other hockey hotbeds, something to add to the intimidation factor, something opponents will have to look forward to (and dread).

Consider this your opportunity to weigh in on giving a name to our voice...

The Anthracite Triangle

There are reports this morning that the Philadelphia Phantoms of the American Hockey League will be sold by Comcast-Spectacor to The Brooks Group, based in Pittsburgh. Since The Spectrum is being demolished as part of a redevelopment project in Philadelphia, the team needs a new home, too. There is a good possibility that the Phantoms' will remain in Pennsylvania, perhaps moving 60 miles up the Pennsylvania Turnpike into Allentown. Although, if they should relocate to Allentown, we hope the new hockey team can come up with a spiffier name than the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. Maybe the Allentown Ice Hogs.

But what this means for hockey fans in eastern Pennsylvania is that if proximity makes for rivalries, these intra-state versions will just get that much hotter.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Kings, February 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps are back at it after a three games in four nights run that left them with three more wins, six more standings points, and a whopping 14-point lead over the Florida Panthers in the Southeast Division. So, things get easier, right?

Wrong.

Tonight’s opponent, the Los Angeles Kings, have already beaten the Caps this year, and they did it rather rudely – 5-2 (although the last two for Los Angeles were of the empty net variety).

"Peerless, you need to spruce up your adjectivory descriptivations."

Well, if it isn’t Don King. Don, you’ve got to be a Kings fan, right?

"The thought of lending my rooting interest to the Los Angeles Kings violates my finely honified sense of egalitarianism and fair-mindedosity."

In other words, you’re not a hockey fan.

"That would be a less erudite and intellectualistic way of stating the facts."

Don, Don…this game was made for you…all the fights and all.

"Peerless, the sport of hockey is but a pale imagification of the sport of the squared circle. "

Are you saying guys like Donald Brashear or Jared Boll wouldn’t measure up if they stepped into the ring?

"Oh, quite the contrary my pronostificasizing colleague. They are wasting their prodigious pugilistic talents by skating on ice and carrying sticks."

They should be…

"Yes, managed by me, the poohbah of promotion, the master of marketing, the hero of hype, the…"

OK, OK, we get it; now let’s get to the game…

The Kings are something of an enigma. If you look at their numbers…



…you wonder how it is they are sitting 12th in the West (although they are only six points out of a playoff spot). They struggle some on offense, but they are a respectable defensive team (one with considerable potential, in fact). They have decent special teams.

But one thing does come skipping off the page. If they give up the first goal, they’re toast. The Kings are tied for the worst winning percentage in the league when giving up the first goal. But even there, Los Angeles is an odd sort of team. They’ve only fallen behind first in 21 of 49 games. That doesn’t look like the profile of a team that is limping along in 12th place in the Western Conference.

"….the Prince of Pomp, the Marshall of Media…"

OK, Don, we get it.

The Kings also have an odd record in looking at “goal games.” The Kings are a team that earns points in the close ones – they are 9-6-7 in one-goal games. They are also a team that does well in blowouts – they are 10-6 in games decided by at least three goals. But if they are in a two-goal game? 2-7.

And, as befits a team with a 21-21-7 record, they can’t find any traction as far as consistency goes, either. The Kings are 5-4-1 in their last ten games, but that stretch includes a four game losing streak (one of them coming in a shootout), and a three game winning streak. Even going back to when the Kings beat the Caps a week before Thanksgiving, they are 13-13-5 in 31 games since.

This is a strange team to try to figure out.

What the Kings do seem to have is a few underperformers among their skaters. Off of a 22-31-53 year last year, one might have thought Patrick O’Sullivan would take the next step in his progress. He rather seems stuck in place at the moment: 11-16-27, which is slightly behind the pace he set for himself last year. What’s worse, he is only 2-2-4, -5, in his last 14 games. He has one goal in two career games against the Caps, that one coming in the November game.

Anze Kopitar has a different set of issues. He is behind his scoring pace of last year, but more than that, he has been a progressively worse plus-minus player in his almost three seasons (-12 in his rookie year, -15 last year, and currently on a pace for -17 this year). Part of that is that he is playing on a team that has struggled, but his is the worst such mark on this team for players dressing for more than 20 games. Offensively, the decline in his production appears to be a function of somewhat weak output on the power play. Last year, he led the team in power play scoring (12-22-34). This year, he’s on a pace to go 5-20-25.

Otherwise the Kings have players who are filling their roles, within their career contexts of numbers – guys like Dustin Brown and Jarret Stoll are having years that are roughly consistent with their recent past. But if guys like Kopitar or O’Sullivan can’t find the next gear in their games, this will be a team that struggles for consistency on offense.

As for the defense, all you need to know is this – their ice time leader is a kid who just turned 19. Drew Doughty (a second overall pick in last June’s draft) has played well, very well in fact. But he probably shouldn’t be, at this stage of his career, taking on all those minutes. Next in line is Kyle Quincey, a 23-year old former member of the Red Wings, who until this year hadn’t played more than six games in a season. Now, he’s logging almost 22 minutes a night. Matt Greene is 25 and getting more than 20 minutes of ice time a night (fourth on the team). The Kings do employ Sean O’Donnell – a player with almost 1,000 games of NHL experience, but he seems ticketed for trade to a contender in a few weeks.

In goal, the task apparently falls to Jonathan Quick. What happened to Erik Ersberg, you say? The goalie who held the Caps to two goals (on 21 shots) in November? Well, since then, he’s been rather inconsistent. He is 3-4-2 in 11 appearances since that win. But for every 33 save in 34 shot performance he’s had (against Minnesota on December 13th), there is a three-goals-on-seven-shots performance (against Tampa Bay on January 12th. Ersberg hasn’t appeared in a game since January 17th, a product perhaps of what has been reported as a "lower body injury."

So, what about Quick? He’s 8-6-0, 2.36. .919, with three shutouts in 16 appearances. He is 4-1-0 in his last five games, 2.61, .917, including a shutout of Ottawa in his last outing on Tuesday.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Jonathan Quick/Erik Ersberg

We’re thinking Quick will get the call, but it might not matter. Verizon Center has been a house of horrors for visiting goalies this year. The Caps have scored 3.52 goals/game at home in 25 games. After winning nine in arrow at home, the Caps lost a pair, but now are on a three game home winning streak in which they’ve scored 13 goals against Boston, Detroit, and Ottawa. And, as was the case with Brian Elliott and Ottawa on Sunday, the Caps have now seen Ersberg. If he gets the start, he might find (as Elliott did) that things don’t go quite as swimmingly against the Caps as they did at home. As for Quick, he has that shutout against Ottawa in his last start, but before that gave up 11 goals in three games and has not yet faced the Caps. As if that’s not enough, there is the matter of Alex Ovechkin looking for his 200th career goal. Good luck, kids.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Laich scored a goal, his first of 2009, by getting to the front of the net. He had six shots on goal in the game against the Devils, his highest shot total since January 19th against the Islanders. Only one of those shots was from outside of 13 feet. When Laich is working in his office at the corner of Goalie and Crease, good things happen. Crowding a young goalie with a crowd roaring sounds like a plan.

This is the middle game of a five-game road trip for the Kings. According to the Pasadena Star-News, this trip is a bonding exercise for the Kings. Well, the Caps might be looking to exact a measure of revenge on the visitors and not allow them to bond so much as “spot weld” them to their end of the ice.

Caps 5 – Kings 2

"…the Admiral of Advertising, the Commodore of Communication…"

Turn out the lights when you’re done, Don.

Russian Machine

We were doodling around on NHL.com looking at some of the game reports that are available, and after a few minutes of that got to thinking about goals. Specifically, those scored by Alex Ovechkin this year. This is a player who eats up ice time in large chunks, and we were curious as to how deep into games and shifts he scores all those goals. What we found was rather interesting.

In the NFL, commentators often remark about running backs that they get stronger as the game goes on. Well, Ovechkin certainly gets more productive. Of the 36 goals he has scored this year, here is how they breakdown by period:

1st: 7
2nd: 11
3rd: 16
OT: 2

Those 18 goals he has in the third period and overtime are especially interesting. Obviously, there is the matter of his stepping up his game in its later stages. But more than that, there is the matter of when he scores them. We had to throw out the third period goal he scored against Detroit last weekend, because the NHL.com reports did not have shift reports available for that game. But looking at the other 17 goals, they were scored an average of 49.7 seconds into his shift.

Let’s keep in mind that Ovechkin is second in the league among forwards in average time-per-shift (1:04). He’s expending a lot of energy in games, generally, but he has enough juice at the end to be scoring late into his shifts. Even taking the empty-net goals out of the mix (he has three), he is scoring goals on average 49.2 seconds into his third period shifts.

Overall, for the 34 goals we looked at (the two against Detroit not having shift data available), Ovechkin is scoring on average 50.8 seconds into his shift. To put that into perspective, 43 of 548 forwards dressing for games this year have higher average shift times overall. Only six of the top 20 goals scorers (23, with ties) have average overall shift times over that which it takes for Ovechkin to score.

Ovechkin also has had a fair share of “megashifts” that have resulted in goals. Of the 34 goals we looked at, 11 of them were scored more than 60 seconds into his shift, and five of them were scored more than 90 seconds into his shift (four of those were on power plays).

He also has a knack, not just for scoring goals late in games, but late in periods. Of his 34 goals scored in regulation, 14 of them have been scored in the last five minutes of a period. Ten have been scored in the last two minutes of a period, including the three empty netters he has (he can also strike quickly – nine of his goals in regulation have been scored in the first five minutes of a period, four in the first two minutes).

Despite his remarkable consistency in scoring, total points-wise, he (as do a lot of goal scorers) scores goals in bunches. He has 11 multi-goal games this year (including two multi-goal periods). He also has three different streaks of scoring goals in at least three consecutive game. His longest is a five-game streak in mid-November that came immediately after a nine-game streak without a goal. Since that nine-game streak without a goal, he has 34 goals in 39 games played. If he was to keep that pace going, he would finish the year with 62 goals.

We’re not suggesting that Ovechkin is the only goal warrior out there, but it’s probably a short list. Caps fans are no doubt happy the “Russian Machine” (never breaks) is doing it here in Washington.

Groundhog Goal

"[Alexander Semin] sauced it right onto my tape. I just had to go upstairs with it."

-- Mike Green, commenting on the goal he scored last night

...it seems to happen a lot.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Devils 2

Give and take.

There’s your theme for last night’s 5-2 Capitals win over the New Jersey Devils, ending the Devils’ eight-game winning streak with an exclamation point.

Give… If the Devils were going to take away Alex Ovechkin’s shot (he had a season-low one shot for the game – he hadn’t had fewer than four in a game since December 13th), then he was going to give the puck to others. Ovechkin assisted on the Caps’ first two goals, the second being a pretty feed from deep in the right wing circle to Brooks Laich at the top of the crease. Goalie Scott Clemmensen was so overplaying Ovechkin for the shot that Laich was left almost untouched to tap in the goal.

Take… as in, “take the shot!” Michael Nylander, who is of the “pass first, pass again, pass some more” school, took two shots. He scored on both (his first multi-goal game since Prohibition… ok, since December 29, 2007, when everyone seemed to get in the act in an 8-6 win over Ottawa). His first goal of the game, a backhand into an empty net – Clemmensen had played himself to a prone position to the right of his net – was the game-winner. And he even got a roughing minor. We’re combing the morning paper for “man bites dog” stories.

Give… as in “give up another power play goal.” In fact, both Devil goals came on special teams. Brian Rolston got the Devils on the board with a 5-on-3 power play goal mid-way through the second period, and Jamie Langenbrunner scored a shorthanded goal in the first minute of the third period to make things interesting.

Take… the opening when it presents itself. Mike Green did that thing he does, pinching down on the right side on the power play while four defenders are watching a Cap (in this case, Alexander Semin) over on the left wing boards. Do teams not have film on this? Green took a nice pass from Semin and snapped a wrister cleanly over Clemmensen to open the scoring.

Give… Eric Fehr credit. For three games, now, he’s looked like a more assertive player on offense. He had a couple of good chances again last night and was finally rewarded with an empty net goal. Four shots, a goal, a hit and a takeaway (on a night when the official scorer was frugal with passing out hits, giveaways, or takeaways). He had a good night.

Take… territory. Keep pushing the opponent back. The four goals against Clemmensen were all scored within 22 feet (Green’s being the furthest in terms of distance). The Caps did a better job than on most nights of crowding the opponent’s net.

Give... the bench credit. When Viktor Kozlov went out with a groin injury early, the Caps lost a guy who does a lot of the heavy lifting in terms of puck control. The Devils are still the sort of team that plays defense in a way that takes advantage of indecision with the puck, but the coaches recombined some things and gave some guys some additional time they might not otherwise get. Boyd Gordon – almost 16 minutes – was perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the available time. He was also the one who dug out the puck that ultimately found its way off of Nylander’s stick into the back of the net for the game-winner.

Take… Brooks Laich took advantage of the opportunity presented when Ovechkin occupied the Devils so much. In addition to the goal off the Ovechkin feed, he finished the night with six shots on goal, one off his high for the year. Only one of them was outside of 13 feet. If Laich does this often, the Caps will win... often.

Give… me a break. Jose Theodore gave up two goals on 29 shots to the Red Wings, two goals on 34 shots to a team on an eight-game winning streak, playing in their arena, and doesn’t have so much as a third star for either effort. The two he gave up last night came on: a) a 5-on-3 power play on which he was screened, and b) a breakaway. Otherwise, he had some excellent saves to keep the Devils from getting back into the game.

Take… as in, I’d take Travis Zajac in a heartbeat. He’s turning into a very fine all-around player for the Devils. An assist, a blocked shot, ten wins on 15 draws. The Devils are trying to recapture youth (Holik, Shanahan, Madden, Rolston…all over 35), but Zajac (23) is the real thing.

Give… I’ll give you a moment to ponder that the Caps converted three of four power plays, scoring those three goals on a total of four shots, none of them taken by Ovechkin. When was the last time you could say the Caps had four power plays and Ovechkin didn’t have a single shot on goal on any of them? I think I’ll let you look that one up.

Take… some minutes off Ovechkin and spread it around. The 18:29 of ice time he had last night was the first time he’s been under 20 minutes since December 13th, and was his shortest stint since November 12th.

Give… yourselves a round of applause, boys. It was a very fine effort to make it 2-0-1 against Boston, Detroit, and New Jersey over the past week – some pretty high-flying teams these days. Now, there’s this unfinished business concerning the Kings on Thursday…

It's the sticks' fault!

"We're taking lazy penalties, holding and hooking and stuff like that. Coach has been saying that we can't take the lazy penalties. We have to keep our sticks down and keep skating."

-- Milan Jurcina

"We have to use our legs more than our sticks We have to be patient when the opposition has the puck. These are the little details that are big."

-- Sergei Fedorov


Maybe these guys should practice killing penalties without the aid of sticks.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils, February 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If it’s Tuesday, it must be Newark. And as appetizing as that prospect would be by itself, we have the added bonus of there being a hockey game to be played here tonight between the Caps and the New Jersey Devils, two of the best teams in the NHL at the moment. Unfortunately, given the way Boston is playing, it’s a battle for Miss Runner-Up and Miss Congeniality in the Eastern Conference as a single standings point separates the two clubs. But as for the game here in Paris in the Swamp…

“Cuz, this place isn’t so bad.”

Well, if it isn’t cousin Fearless. And where there’s one, there’s...

"Hey, cuz…"

…Cheerless. Guys, what are you doing here?

"We heard so much about Newark, we had to sample the ambience for ourselves."

"Yeah, and we had to see Jerry Lewis’ birthplace."

Guess that’s the “Paris” connection.

"That’s not all...did you know that much of Newark’s charm lies in it wealth of cultural attractions?"

Well, no, that wouldn’t have immediately come to mind.

"Well, that’s what it says on the GoNewark web site. Anyway, bargain hunters can also head down Route 3 toward the 100+ outlet stores in Secaucus, or go a few miles south on the NJ Turnpike to Elizabeth’s Jersey Gardens, the state’s largest outlet mall and headquarters for a staggering range of off-price retailers."

Culture in New Jersey… Milan should close La Scala.

"Oh, and that’s not all…Urbanized as it is, the Gateway Region still leaves room for nature. Right off Route 3 is the New Jersey Meadowlands Environment Center, where you can walk the boardwalk trail as it winds its way through marshes teeming with dozens of bird species."

Teeming with bird species? Or bird feces? And Cheerless, have you actually been to these places, or are you just reading this off the web site?

"Well, I haven’t been able to get out of the motel all day…I had a jersey breakfast dog this morning, and I’ve been…uh, occupied (urp) ever since…’scuse me!"


OK, so while Cheerless uses the facilities, we’ll take a look at the game. Tonight the Caps try to do what no team has done since Anaheim turned the trick on January 11th – beat the Devils. In fact, no team has beaten the Devils in Newark since Atlanta (yes, that Atlanta) won a 4-0 decision on January 8th. The eight game winning streak has propelled the Devils to the top of the Atlantic Division and into a dogfight with the Caps for the second spot in the East. They don’t come upon their fortune by chance…

The Devils have outscored the opposition by 30-15 in this eight game streak and have held opponents to two or fewer goals three times. The thing is, though, the wheels might be coming off on this streak. In their last two games – against Boston and Pittsburgh – the Devils allowed three goals in each and have had really ugly stretches. Against Boston they coughed up a 2-0 second intermission lead by giving up three goals before scoring late and forcing overtime. Against the struggling Penguins they found themselves trailing 3-1 in the third period before rallying with a pair of third period goals to force another overtime.

This is a team that is, as they say, ripe for plucking.

But over the streak the Devils have had some fine individual performances. Their top scorers over the eight games include:

Jamie Langenbrunner: 6-5-11
Travis Zajac: 4-7-11
Zach Parise: 5-4-9
Patrik Elias: 3-5-8
John Madden: 1-6-7

That is an example of the big guns delivering, the top four on that list being the top four scorers for the Devils for the season. Of that group, Patrik Elias has had the most experience against the Caps and has had the most success. He’ll come into this game having played 41 career games against Washington, with a 16-24-40 scoring line. Of those 16 goals, six have been game winners.

One player who did not show up among those top scorers in the recent eight-game streak is Brian Gionta. If there is one Devil in a slump (and therefore one who should be watched), it is the diminutive right winger. He has only two goals in his last 20 games (2-11-13, -4). He does, however, have a history of some success against Washington. In 22 career games, he is 7-10-17, +8, with a couple of power play goals and a game-winner.

The new “kid” on the block is Brendan Shanahan. The 40-year old is returning to his roots (he was selected by the Devils second overall in the 1787…uh, 1987 draft). He seems to be the sort who can, in fact, go home again. He is 3-1-4, with a pair of power play goals, in five games since signing with New Jersey.

Then there is goaltender Scott Clemmensen. With 33 appearances this year so far, he has already eclipsed the total number of games he played in the NHL coming into the season (28), thanks – if that is the word – to the arm injury suffered by Martin Brodeur that has kept him out of the lineup since November 1st. Clemmensen is 7-0-0 in the recent eight-game winning streak, 1.98, .926. The seven wins he has on this streak almost equal the number of career wins he had entering this season (eight). His 22-9-1, 2.29, .920 numbers might give him Vezina consideration, if he didn’t play for the Devils (it must be the system…) and the fact that his name is "Scott Clemmensen" and not, say, "Henrik Lundqvist" (who, by comparison, is 24-15-3, 2.58, .912).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Jamie Langenbrunner

Not only is he hot -- six goals in his last three games -- four of them have been scored in the third period or overtime, and he’s had the game-winning goal in each of the last three Devils wins. He’s had his share of success against Washington, as well, going 10-13-23, +10, in 33 career games against the Caps. He is 1-2-3 in three games against Washington so far this year.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Chris Clark is now out for the season. One could say that the team has been Ovechkin’s for most, if not all of this year, but with the captain now officially sidelined for the duration, the dynamic is a little bit different. Ovechkin probably won’t wear the “C” (not this season, at least), but he is now the de facto captain. Just a little more responsibility on his shoulders. He’s seemed to live for such moments (his big, glass-shattering introduction to the NHL in his first game; the run of goals after signing his big contract; his performance in his first playoff appearance last spring). One has the feeling, especially on the heels of his five-goals in two games performance over the weekend, that this could be a big week for the big winger.

The Caps are 1-0-2 against the Devils this year. It’s not as if they can’t play with these guys, just as they’ve shown they can against the likes of Boston and Detroit. They’ll more than play with the Devils tonight. The streak ends…

Caps 4 – Devils 2

Hey, Cheerless…you ok in there?

"Ughhhhhhh… no more jersey breakfast dogs for me…"

Read the bottom line, please...

I'd love to see these uniforms in the "Eye Test Classic:"

Prelude

According to Capital Insider, Chris Clark could be done for the year...

"GM George McPhee just said that captain Chris Clark could miss the remainder of the regular season with the wrist injury that has been dogging him since training camp. Clark is at the doctor's office right now. I should know more later, but McPhee said it's looking like Clark will, in fact, need surgery on the wrist."

We've suspected there had to be something wrong with Clark. A player that scored 50 goals in two seasons, even if it was as the opposite winger from a guy scoring almost 100 of his own, doesn't just forget how to play hockey, even if he spent most of last year on the shelf with an injury.

But the timing of this has a fortuitous aspect to it as well (not for Clark, but for the roster). Clark hasn't been playing, and now we have the reason why and why his production has been down as much as it has been. Meanwhile, the Caps have the kinds of roster needs a contender has -- not major reworkings of the roster, but the kinds of tweaking a team might need to prepare for what amounts to a whole different season that starts in April. We are now 30 days from the trading deadline (March 4th, 3:00 EST).

The Caps have a wish list that might include a stay-at-home defenseman or some more grit among the forwards. The timing of Clark's surgery might give the Capitals the cap wherewithal to pursue such a move. Until now, it seemed unlikely the Caps would do much at the deadline other than see what return a Michael Nylander might fetch. This changes the game.

In defense of...

Every team, whether good or bad, in Canada or in the States, east coast or west coast, needs a whipping boy.

Jeff Schultz, such is your lot in life as a Washington Capital.

And it isn’t fair, not by a long shot. Young Mr. Schultz (and he is young – 22) gets more than a fair amount of grief from Caps fans – on message boards, blogs, or in the stands (we heard a lot of commentary from the stands on his play in the weekend games). Why he is the target of such invective, we’re not entirely sure. Perhaps it is this…

Schultz is seventh on the team in hits, last in hits-per-game. For a guy who is of a size roughly equivalent to Chris Pronger, that is apparently the kiss of death.

Well, gee, it’s not like Schultz doesn’t bring other things to the party. Part of defending is to try to keep shots from getting to the goaltender. That might take the form of tying up a defender in front, and it might take the form of blocking shots. With respect to the latter, Schultz has a respectable 50 blocked shots in 34 games. The number is good for fourth on the team, and on a blocked shots per game basis is ahead of Shaone Morrison, John Erskine, and Tom Poti.

Schultz doesn’t shoot a lot (with only 22 shots on goal, he probably should shoot more) from his position, but he has the best ratio of shots on goal to blocked shots – he’s getting shots through so that a play can be made.

He probably will never be an “offensive” defenseman, but he is tied for second among Capitals defensemen in assists. And, he is a plus-13 (second among defensemen) in 34 games, plus-30 for 144 career games. He’s had only nine “minus” games this year, and except for a brutal minus-4 night against San Jose has had only one other game where he was worse than a minus-1. He’s had only one “minus” game in 2009.

OK, all other things equal, one would like a player of Schultz’ size to clear-cut the terrain in front of a goaltender and punish players along the boards. And, given that he’s second in shorthanded ice time for a team that struggles on the power play, you’d like to see him improve in that regard. But he plays his position well, especially given his age and experience level – certainly more good things happen when he’s on the ice than bad things at even strength.

Schultz is going to be a good defenseman in this league. Perhaps – probably, in fact – not an all star (he’ll never score enough for that), but one who will be effective in his anonymity. He’ll be out there for a lot of time where nothing happens for the other guys, and you probably won’t even notice that it was Schultz on the ice for a lot of that.

Hits make an impression on fans. So do fights. Neither is Schultz' game. You have to watch him -- really watch him over time to see the sort of ways he can be effective. It isn't that he hasn't made and won't make mistakes. That's a rite of passage for a 22-year old defenseman in this league.

But for the time being, we think he’s coming along just fine.

A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 7 - Senators 4

It was a “Super” kind of Sunday as the Capitals bounced the Ottawa Senators out of town this afternoon, 7-4, at Verizon Center. What do we mean, “Super?” It’s a football thing…

“46 defense.” In 1985, that was the name bestowed upon the defensive scheme of the Chicago Bears, one characterized by unrelenting pressure as eight men stormed the line of scrimmage. The equivalent? It was the early forechecking of the Capitals as they forced three early turnovers in the first two minutes to set the tone. Even when Ottawa scored (on a shot from Daniel Alfredssson that Shaone Morrison appeared to screen Brent Johnson from seeing), the Caps forced Ottawa into five more turnovers over the next six minutes as prelude to a penalty taken by Dany Heatley at the 9:40 mark of the first period.

“Wildcat” offense. It made something of a comeback in the NFL this year – it is a direct snap formation where the center snaps the ball to a player that is not the quarterback. Here, it was Nicklas Backstrom “snapping” the faceoff back to Mike Green who found paydirt three seconds after the Heatley penalty.

“Halfback Option.” You’ve seen it before…quarterback pitches to the halfback on a sweep, the runner pulling up to loft a pass downfield, often for a score. Here, it was Backstrom, pitching the faceoff back to Green, who found Alex Ovechkin for the one-timer four seconds after Jarkko Ruutu took a minor penalty for general obnoxiousness.

“Field goal.” OK, “hat trick”…Alex Ovechkin’s seventh as a Cap and second this year.

“Field goal.” OK, that would be the three assists from Sergei Fedorov, tying his high in assists as a Cap.

“Long bomb.” That would be the deep downfield pass that hits the wide receiver in stride for a length of the field score. This afternoon, that was Green flipping the puck from the Caps’ defensive zone out over the Ottawa defenders and into space in the neutral zone, where Alexander Semin could collect it behind everyone at the Ottawa blue line, skate in alone, and roof a backhand over Alex Auld (in relief of Brian Elliot, who gave up four goals on 16 shots before being pulled – guess that was sort of like the QB getting concussed out of the game).

“Prevent defense.” That’s when a team gets out to a big lead and sits on it late, playing passively, hoping the clock will run out before the opposition can chew up yards and score points. Many (us included) see the only thing “prevent defense” preventing is a win. Although the Caps engaged in a fair amount of that in the third period after racing out to a 6-2 lead after two periods, the clock did run out before the Senators could get all of the four-goal deficit back.

"Battle in the trenches." That usually refers to a ton-and-a-half or more of football players mauling one another at the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. Who wins that battle generally wins the game. Today, that was Boyd Gordon and Sergei Fedorov (far less than a ton-and-a-half of hockey player) winning eight of 12 defensive zone draws. For the day, they were a combined 17-for-29.

"70-chip." Any Redskin fan knows that one…the call in Super Bowl XVII that sprung John Riggins past the Miami Dolphins defense for a touchdown that gave the Redskins a lead they would not relinquish. Today, it was Eric Fehr diving inside of defenseman Chris Phillips as goalie Brian Elliott was turned the other way to chip home a loose puck just before ending up in the net himself.

“The Greatest Show on Turf.” That was the name given to the St. Louis Rams from 1999-2001. It was an offense characterized by speed, aggressiveness, and pinball machine-like scoring, especially in the home part of their schedule. The Caps are becoming the ‘Greatest Show on Ice.” The seven goals matches their high for the year – also on the first day of the month (January), against Tampa Bay. The Caps have been especially adept at abusing the Senator defense. In going 6-0-0 in the last six games against the Senators at Verizon Center, the Caps have scored 32 goals. Goalies are going to be coming up with mysterious groin pulls when a date with the Caps in Washington comes up on the Ottawa schedule.

"Cover two." You hear a lot of that in football games; it is a pass coverage scheme that puts responsibility on the safeties – the last guys back on defense – for covering half of the field in the deep defensive zone. For the Caps, that would be Milan Jurcina and Jeff Schultz. Yeah, we know, these two get a lot of grief from fans, but for the weekend, Schultz went plus-6 with five blocked shots, and Jurcina went plus-4 with seven hits and five blocked shots.

Seems the Caps play better football than the local football team. Of course, it helps that the team providing the opposition is as one-dimensional as it is. The Senators got a goal from Dany Heatley (gift wrapped by Tom Poti), two from Daniel Alfredsson… and almost nothing from anyone else. That’s been the Senators’ season.

And now, the Caps head to New Jersey, where they will try to end the Devils’ eight game winning streak. But to take a line from the late Herb Brooks, when he was talking to his 1980 U.S. Olympic Team about the Soviets… “someone’s gonna beat those guys.” The Devils’ last two wins both came in overtime. That streak looks like it’s coming to an end…

…Tuesday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, February 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is… on… the… zzzzzzzzzzz…

"Are you quitting on me? Well, are you? Then quit, you slimy bleeping walrus-looking piece of bleep! Get the bleep out of bed! Get the bleep down out of bed! NOW! MOVE IT! Or I'm going to rip your balls off, so you cannot contaminate the rest of the world! I will motivate you, Private Peerless, IF IT SHORT-bleeps EVERY CANNIBAL ON THE CONGO!"

Geez, Sarge…it’s early, and we had a prognosto yesterday…

"Today... is Christmas! There will be a magic show at 12 hundred thirty hours at Verizon Center! Alex Ovechkin will show you about how the free world will conquer the Ottawa Senators with the aid of God and a few Capitals! God has a hard-on for Capitals because they kill everything they see! He plays His games, they play theirs! To show their appreciation for so much power, they keep the standings packed with fresh losers! God was here before the Capitals! So you can give your heart to Jesus, but your ass belongs to the Capitals blogosphere! Do you understand?"

Sure, Sarge…whatever…

"Oh that's right, Private Peerless, don't make any bleeping effort to get to the keyboard of your bleeping computer. If God would have wanted you up there he would have miracled your ass up there by now, wouldn't he?"

Mmph…

"What is your major malfunction, numbnuts? Didn't Mommy and Daddy show you enough attention when you were a child?"

Ok, ok…I’m up…

"You little scumbag! I got your name! I got your ass! You will not laugh! You will not cry! You will learn by the numbers. I will teach you! Now get up! Get on your feet! You had best unbleep yourself or I will unscrew your head and bleep down your neck!"

Sir, Yes sir!

"Private Peerless, why did you join my beloved Blogosphere Corps?"

Sir, to BLOG, sir!

"So you're a blogger?"

Sir, yes sir!

"Then let me see your blog face!"



"That’s good Private Peerless…but don’t ever “bleep” out my lines again."

Sir, yes SIR!

OK, we’re up and ready… and we sure hope the Caps are, because it’s another 12:35 start, this time against the Ottawa Senators, a team that the Caps will face for the last time this year. And that might be a good thing, because the Senators have won two of the three games played so far (one in overtime). How they’ve managed to do that is a mystery, because frankly, their numbers suck on toast…


One looks at those numbers, and it becomes evident rather quickly how to beat that team – STAY OUT OF THE PENALTY BOX! Maybe we should get Sergeant Hartman to convey that message… Anyway, no team in the NHL has scored fewer 5-on-5 goals – 64 in 47 games – than have the Senators. By way of comparison, the Caps have scored 96 such goals (8th in the league). That, in a nutshell, is the key to the game… keep It 5-on-5.

Need a reminder?...

First game against Ottawa…no power play goals allowed… 2-1 overtime loss (hey, it was a point earned)

Second game… no power play goals allowed… a 5-1 win for the Caps.

Last game, a 3-2 win for Ottawa… three power play goals allowed.

Get the point?

Ottawa is probably thrilled to have January behind them. The Senators went 4-6-2 for the month and scored more than three goals only three times (for which they had only a 1-1-1 record). They were shutout twice and held to a single goal on three other occasions.

At this point in the show, we’d be extolling the performances of the ‘Big Three” top line of Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daneil Alfredsson. Well, not this time. Of the 29 goals scored by the Senators for the month of January, the three combined for 10 goals (Heatley getting half of them). In fact, in the 12 games for the month, Heatley was 5-4-9, Spezza was 2-7-9, and Alfredsson was 3-8-11. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they aren’t the sort of point-or-better a game that one usually sees from this trio.

If anything, the rest of the Ottawa roster has had a balanced, if not necessarily prolific, scoring profile. Mike Fisher had four goals in January, Chris Kelly had three, as did Brendan Bell. Antoine Vermette and Chris Phillips had a pair. It just wasn’t enough to keep the Senators from sinking in the standings.

Ottawa has had to depend on an unconventional – for them – source of success… defense and goaltending. The Senators gave up 36 goals in 12 games in January, but that is a bit deceptive. 17 of those goals came in the first four games of the month, when Alex Auld and Martin Gerber were still fighting to see who could win the blue ribbon of suckitude. Brian Elliott took over on January 10th and promptly lost to the Rangers, but giving up only two goals in the process (the Senators, perhaps predictably, were shut out). For the month, Elliott was 4-2-1, 2.27, .918, including a 3-2 win over the Caps. Auld got the start in the Senators’ last game – a 1-0 shutout against Columbus – while Gerber is in Binghamton pondering an uncertain future.

The trouble that an Ottawa goaltender might face though, lies directly in front of him. Chris Phillips is (still) on the way to perhaps the worst season of his career. He hasn’t been a “minus” player since the 1998-1999 season – his second, when he was -5 in 34 games. Today, he will skate onto the ice at -21. If there is a silver lining, it might be that he was “only” minus-2 for the month of January.

Anton Volchenkov is another player struggling with being on the ice for more goals against than goals for. He is -12 in 34 games this year. He was plus-1 for the month, but played in only four games. He did not dress for the last game against the Caps, but should bring his shot-blocking expertise to this one this afternoon.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Brian Elliott

OK, the Caps have seen him now. This will be the first team that Elliott has faced a second time this season, and he’s getting the chance in front of what is expected to be a sellout crowd. Also of note here, Elliott has only played in two road games among the seven he’s started. Not that he’s done poorly – a 3-2 win over Atlanta and a 3-1 win over St. Louis. Now, he jumps up several weight classes in competition.

Washington: Eric Fehr

Fehr had several excellent chances to score yesterday and didn’t. It’s getting to be the time in his career where he shows he was that big goal-scorer he was in junior and in the AHL. He doesn’t have to net 20 goals in the last 32 games to make that point, but he hasn’t had one since December 4th against the Islanders – a span of 14 games. We’re guessing he’ll get chances today, given the state of the opposition and the likelihood that they focus on other Capitals.

Washington has struggled offensively in day games this year – seven goals scored in three contests (they’ve allowed ten). It’s somewhat odd, too, given that the Caps lead the entire NHL in shots taken per game in the daylight. Hopefully, they got their “day legs” under them yesterday against the Red Wings and can avoid the “sleepiness” that Alex Ovechkin talked about after yesterday’s win. Will they?

Hey, do you read this stuff?

Caps 5 – Senators 2

A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 4 -- Red Wings 2

And that’s how they do that.

It was red, it was loud, and even for a chilly weekend afternoon in January, it had the whiff of a game played on a warm night in June. The Caps scored late and held off the Red Wings in March of the Penguins Penalized over the last 98 seconds to beat Detroit, 4-2. But Peerless, what did all mean?...

Figuring out a way to win. It’s one thing to come from a couple of goals down to beat a bottom dweller. It is another thing to take a game away from a team you’re tied with at the second intermission when that team is the defending Stanley Cup champion skating on your ice with the third highest number of road standings points in the league. Figuring out a way to win close, highly charged games against quality opponents is perhaps the last lesson a team has to learn to be a credible championship contender. And what fits hand in glove with that is…

Dealing with adversity I. Folks are going to remember Alex Ovechkin’s two goals to win, but what they might put aside (we’re betting the coaches don’t) is the fact that the Caps yet again gave up a power play goal – that’s ten games in a row and counting – and gave up seven power play opportunities (they’ve given up at least five in seven of their last eight games). You might argue that the last one is a technicality (Tom Poti took the penalty, but the Caps were already two men down from previous penalties), but the flip side of that is that the Caps took three penalties in the last 98 seconds of the game. That’s not playing with matches, it’s playing with a blowtorch. They fought through it in the end, which is a good thing (what isn’t a good thing is that these kinds of things are repeat offenses).

Dealing with adversity II. There isn’t a graceful way to say this – Alex Semin struggled (ok, that might be a bit “graceful”… you may call me a coward). We thought that if the Red Wings weren’t the opponent in this game, we would not have been surprised if Semin had been benched in the third period for his penultimate shift in the second period. From pulling up short with the puck at the Red Wing blue line when it looked as if he had a chance to press the matter – he seemed to pass up chances all afternoon – to his hooking penalty in the neutral zone (apparently, the experience in the Ottawa game had been forgotten). Detroit scored on the ensuing power play – a goal in the last minute of the period – but it didn’t cripple the Caps in terms of momentum the way it might have done with a younger, less experienced version of this team (say, two years ago, of even perhaps this time last year).

Dealing with adversity III. Detroit: 73 – Washington: 42. No, that’s not the halftime score of a Pistons/Wizards game, it is the shot attempts for the two teams today. That’s an indicator that the ice was tilted in Jose Theodore’s direction, but the Caps prevailed in spite of it. One had the feeling (well, I did at least) that the Caps would have these short bursts where they would threaten the Red Wings’ goal, but that Detroit won large blocks of time in terms of territorial play. They always seemed to have the puck. But hey, they count goals, not shot attempts.

It’s 60 minutes. That goes for players as well as teams. Alex Ovechkin took three shots in the first period. He would not so much as even attempt one for more than 35 minutes of playing time thereafter. Good thing there were still almost 13 minutes left to play when he did take his next shot. That one, and the next one he took, found the back of the net – the game winner and the insurance goal. That makes 18 third period goals (of his 33) for Ovechkin this year, a number that leads the league.

I’ve got rhythm. Well, I don’t, but Jose Theodore seems to have it. He’s gotten into a nice playing rhythm since “the yank.” He is 10-3-1, 2.03, .925 and has given up more than three goals only once in 13 games since that Ranger game when he was pulled after giving up three goals on five shots in less than 14 minutes. We’re a little surprised he didn’t get a star in this one, but it might be indicative of his being solid in goal to the point of being almost boring.

Defense, defense, defense. The Red Wings came from everywhere. 16 of 18 skaters had shots on goal; every skater except Tomas Kopecky (who did record a shot on goal) had at least two shot attempts. But, as the graphic below suggests, the Wings were pushed outside for many of those shots…

…and yes, it also shows that the Wings did miss having Tomas Holmstrom wreaking his own special havoc in front of the net. Another way to look at the job the Caps did… Pavel Datsyuk – one shot on goal. Marian Hossa – one shot on goal.

We’re thinking we need to see more from… Eric Fehr. He had five shots on goal, but he had a couple of great chances today that, frankly, he needs to bury. One shot – a slapper off a nice drop pass from Nicklas Backstrom – was the kind of shot a goal-scorer is going to nail. On another, off a great feed from Tomas Fleischmann, he just didn’t get very good wood (ok, composite) on the puck (we have a feeling the ice was not all that hot, and we cringe at the prospect of what it will be tomorrow for the Ottawa game). But it’s a good thing that Fehr is shooting the puck – five shots in less than ten minutes of ice time (we might suggest other wingers take a cue). Perhaps as in basketball, shooters need to shoot to get out of their slumps.

Nit picking. Yeah, that’s what it will be, but the Caps had what was an annoying result in faceoffs in one respect. They held Pavel Datsyuk and Valtteri Filppula even in the circle (18 up, 18 down), but went 2-for-9 against Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Kopeckey, Johan Franzen and Kris Draper.

Angels with Dirty Faces. Yup, it’s the name of a James Cagney movie. It also could describe the Caps in an important respect this afternoon. Mike Green had a nice goal on a wrister coming on a delayed penalty when Nicklas Backstrom was hooked down in front (perhaps distracting goalie Ty Conklin on the Green shot), but the other three goals were scored from in front, going to the net – Viktor Kozlov deflecting a Milan Jurcina drive… Ovechkin barreling past a defenseman, feeling the puck through his legs and charging in on the Detroit net to score… Ovechkin again after a Nicklas Backstrom shot from in close was turned away, Ovechkin chipping the puck over Conklin from the doorstep. Oh, and by the way…that play never happens if Backstrom doesn’t win the face off to start the action. The point is that three goals came from in tight – the money area that the Caps are going to have to dominate come the spring.

At the end of the day, it was a very entertaining game… “thrilling,” in fact. Why would we use that adjective? Well, it wasn’t the up and down kind of stuff that gets fans roaring and coming out of their seats. Quite the opposite – there were stretches in the game in which we were stunned by just how quiet the arena was, mostly a product of wonder over whether the Caps could hold off the Red Wings on one of their keep-the-puck-in-your-end-for-the-whole-shift kind of displays. Then when the Caps cleared the puck or started a rush of their own, there was a palpable sense of relief followed by the kind of cheering that speaks…”score one, already, and get these guys off our backs.” The Caps did just that and grabbed (“stole” would imply a certain amount of luck, and we think this one was more a product of hard work) two points in a game that serves as a measuring stick for how far the Caps have come this year.

Great job, boys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Red Wings, January 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is IN THE AIR!!!

Well, it’s been a few days.. days to get some practice in, to correct some problems, to use the tools of drills to engage in a little fix-up…


“arghh-arghh-arghh…”

Well, if it isn’t the tool man, himself…Tim “The Tool Man” Taylor. I guess it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise to find you here, being a Detroit guy and all.

“It’s Tim ‘The Puck Man’ Taylor, now…”

Is that so…

“Oh-h-h-h yeah… when I’m out there with my Binford 6100 graphite composite hybrid monofilament sure-grip...argh-argh-arghhh…”

So you’re a big scorer in the Detroit amateur leagues, eh?

“No, I’m still married to Jill…”

Good one…so, you’re still a Red Wings fan, I assume?

“We’re there at every game…”

We?

“Oh yeah. Me, the boys, Wilson, and even Heidi once in a while…

Once in a while?

“Yeah… every time she goes, the Jumbotron seems to get stuck on her and I have to go fix it.”

Ohhh..nooooo.


Well, the Red Wings are visiting Verizon Center in a matinee start, the first of back-to-back afternoon games on Fun Street this weekend. But the Red Wings, while still occupying the lofty standings status one might expect of a defending Stanley Cup champion and perennial contender, are doing it in a manner a little different than hockey fans might be accustomed to seeing. Here are the numbers…



What jumps out from the page here are the goals-against and penalty-killing numbers for the Red Wings. The 2.90 goals-against is a far cry from the 2.18 that the Red Wings posted last year (best in the league). And the 78.4 percent penalty kill is more than a little bit off the 84.0 percent number (8th overall) that the Wings posted last year.

The first thing that comes to mind in looking at those numbers is to wonder if shots matter here. Well, not much it would seem. The Wings are giving up 28.1 shots a game at the moment (tied for 4th in the league), not a large drop-off from their 23.5 given up last year (1st overall). And on the penalty kill, the Wings are actually giving up fewer power plays per game (4.25) than they did last year (4.35).

The next place to look is goaltending, and here the Red Wings appear to have a problem on their hands. Chris Osgood, who came into the season firmly entrenched as the number one netminder, has a goals-against average that is more than one full goal per game worse than last year (3.29 versus 2.09). His save percentage is down significantly as well (.880 from .914). What that means is that he has had only 26 appearances in the Wings’ 48 games and has left an opportunity for backup Ty Conklin to record major minutes.

Conklin has appeared in 24 games, recording more wins (16 versus 14 for Osgood) with a much better GAA (2.31) and save percentage (.917). It’s not as if Conklin is new to this rescue-in-relief role. He more or less saved the Penguins’ season last year when he took over for an injured Marc-Andre Fleury (17-4-5 during Fleury’s absence). The result is that the Red Wings seem to be postponing a day of reckoning. Despite Conklin’s playing relatively well -- better than Osgood in fact -- he has more or less split time with Osgood in the month of January. Conklin has six appearances this month, Osgood has seven in 12 Detroit games in January (Osgood was pulled in favor of Conklin after giving up three goals on 12 shots in the first period of the last game, a 4-2 loss to Dallas).

It’s a good thing, then, that the Red Wings are scoring at an amazing clip. They are first in the league in goals-per-game, but more than that, Detroit has 14 players in double digits in points, a dozen of them with more than 20 points. The Wings have seven players with more than ten goals, five of them with more than 15. A dozen players have at least one power play goal, seven of them with at least five.

And here is an odd number, but one that is entirely within the concept of Detroit’s philosophy of playing keep-away with the puck. Of the four skaters who have taken at least 350 faceoffs, none have lost a majority of their draws.

And another odd number, one that points to the depth of this team. No forward averages as much as 20 minutes of ice time per game. Coach Mike Babcock spreads it around.

Individually, the names at the top of the scoring list are familiar to even the most casual hockey fan – Pavel Datsyuk, Marian Hossa, Henrik Zetterberg. They’ve accounted for 60 of the 172 goals scored by the Wings, and collectively the average better than a point a game.

But there are a lot of teams with a top-trio of skaters – Ottawa has one, and they’re fighting to stay out of the lottery. The “undercard” on this team is what makes it impressive. Johan Franzen has 21 goals in 42 games, carrying over the big late season production he had last year. How big? In his last 74 games dating back to last season (including last year’s playoffs) he has 49 goals and has scored at least one goal in 38 of those games. He also leads the Red Wings in game-winning goals with six.

Jiri Hudler, whose size seemed to be a concern early in his career, is having a breakout season. His 17-22-39 scoring line has already yielded a career high in total goals and power play goals, and is only three points shy of his career high with 34 games left to play. However, Hudler is nursing a foot injury and might not play.

Daniel Cleary isn’t high on the list of goal scorers on this team, but three of his eight tallies have been game-winners (third on the team).

And then there is Tomas Holmstrom, who in a perverse sort of way might be the single irreplaceable cog in the Red Wing machine. While not necessarily the biggest player out there (6’, 203 pounds) he has developed a reputation for his backside being almost unremovable from the cage of a goalie’s mask. When he sets a screen in front, he might as well have a sign saying “WIDE LOAD” planted on the back of his shorts. It’s put him in a position to score 14 goals (sixth on the team), eight of them on the power play (tied for the top spot for Detroit). Trouble is, he (along with Zetterberg) is listed as "day-to-day" and is noted as out (as is Zetterberg) for this one. Caps goaltenders, rejoice!

On the blue line, the Wings are not only good, they’ve enjoyed continuity. Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Kiklas Kronwwall, Brett Lebda, Andreas Lilja, and Brad Stuart all have played in at least 41 games, and five of them (Lebda being the exception) have played in at least 45 games. Five of them (Stuart being the exception here) have scored in double digits in points. Only Kronwall has a minus figure for the year, and the group has accounted for nine power play goals. Of the group, Stuart will not dress today, out of the lineup with an injury.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Marian Hossa

Hossa’s numbers are impressive – a rather symmetrical 24-24-48 this year in 48 games. But he has feasted on the Caps over the years. While he is averaged 0.92 points-per-game against the rest of the league over his career, he’s averaged 1.14 points-per-game (23-27-50) in 44 career games against Washington. He is 7-7-14 in his last dozen games this season, including five power play goals. He must be drooling at the prospect of setting up against the Caps’ penalty killers. The game could turn on whether the Caps can keep him off the board on the power play.

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

Fedorov is heading to the Hockey Hall of Fame on the body of work he authored as a Red Wing. Playing against them has been another matter. In 20 career games, he is 6-6-12, -20. He might be getting first line time in this one, based on what went on at practice yesterday. That would mean he’d get his chances adding to his point total, certainly. But scoring isn’t the problem, even if the Caps have scored more than three goals only three times in 11 games this month. Defending the other guys’ power play has been the more persistent problem, and Fedorov’s experience in that regard, noted well by Japers, might be the less visible, but more important, factor here.

These are two teams of a similar specie at different stages of development. The Red Wings have the Cups, score a lot, play keep-away with the puck, the travelling red road show, the guys giving them hometown discounts on contracts. The Caps aspire to Cups, score a lot, have shown flashes of being able to play keep-away, rock the red really well in their own house and have their own road crew, and will have some interesting contract matters down the road. This is a “measurement” game – how do the Caps measure up to a genuinely elite team, even if that elite team is banged up and coming in 0-3-1 in their last four games?

We think they’re measure quite well after a couple of days of fun and drills.

Caps 4 – Red Wings 3

A Tale of Two Januarys

Last year, on January 10th, Alex Ovechkin signed a contract with Washington that would pay him $124 million over 13 years. How did he respond to the added pressure? He went 7-4-11, +5 in his next half dozen games, and the Caps went 4-2-0.

Henrik Zetterberg signed a 12-year, $73 million contract on Wednesday that will keep him in Detroit for a while. How did he respond to the added pressure? He sat out a 4-2 loss to Dallas as a precautionary measure after his back tightened up in the Red Wings' previous game, a 3-2 overtime loss to Columbus.

OK, that's unfair. Truth is, we wouldn't mind if Zetterberg took all the time he needed to get back to 100 percent...even if it means missing tomorrow's game.

Taking Care of Business

Last night the New Jersey Devils leapfrogged the Washington Capitals into second place in the Eastern Conference with a 4-3 overtime win against the Boston Bruins in Boston. It was the Devils’ seventh straight win and a 60-minute example of how a team that doesn’t jump off the page, statistically, has cobbled together such a successful year despite losing a hall-of-fame goaltender to injury. How have they done it?

First…special teams opportunities. Jamie Langenbrunner opened the scoring for the Devils at the 15:01 mark with a shorthanded goal. Typical. The Devils do not often find themselves in shorthanded situations (they have the ninth fewest man-down situations in the league), and when they do, they are a threat to score. Langenbrunner’s was the seventh shorthanded tally of the year for New Jersey (tied for fifth most in the league).

What the Devils are good at on special teams is not beating themselves; they've allowed only two SH goals against in 168 power play opportunities. And, as reflected in the Langenbrunner goal, they have a talent for beating the opposition. They have seven shorthanded goals of their own in 192 man-advanatge situtations. Their ratio of power play goals allowed-to-shorthanded goals scored of 4.86 is fifth best in the league (by way of comparison, Washington’s ratio of 10.00 is tied for 15th).

Second…penalty killing. The Devils are not an especially proficient penalty killing group. After last night’s game, they are 11th in the league at 82.3 percent. But, they’ve also allowed the eighth fewest number of power play goals, a product of having the ninth fewest number of power plays allowed. Compare those numbers to Washington – fourth highest in total power plays allowed, second highest number of power play goals allowed.

Third…finding ways to win. There is perhaps no better number to look at as evidence of a team’s ability to find ways to win than looking at its record in one-goal games. New Jersey won a 4-3 overtime game last night. It put their record at 14-4-3 in one-goal games this year, good for third in the league in winning percentage (Washington is 13-5-4, good for 10th in the league).

Fourth…early pressure. The Devils idea of “early pressure” is not a high-flying offense. It is a suffocating defense. No team in the NHL has allowed fewer first period goals than the Devils – 27 (Washington has allowed the 20th fewest – 43), and that has contributed to the Devils having the second best winning percentage in the league when scoring first – 25-3-2/.821 (the Caps are fourth: 21-4-2/.778).

If you look at that team's numbers on a measure by measure basis, you might wonder how they sit fourth in the league in points. But look at them collectively, and you find it is a team that doesn’t beat itself and is opportunistic to boot. The Devils are a team that takes care of business.

The Capitals have more skill than that team, but find themselves looking up at the Devils this morning. The silver lining for the home team in looking at the Devils’ example is, if the Caps can find a way to stop beating their heads against a wall by beating themselves so often (too many power plays allowed being the biggest problem), they might be the most difficult team in the East to beat come the spring.

Goot Mornink, Class

"There's a lot of doubt about my future..."

Olaf Kolzig's season is over in Tampa Bay. The St. Petersburg Times has the news from Tampa...

"Lightning backup Olie Kolzig will have surgery on Saturday to repair a ruptured distal biceps tendon in his left forearm. The surgery will be performed in Washington by orthopedist Ben Shaffer, a Capitals team physician who treated Kolzig when he played in Washington. Lightning head trainer Tommy Mulligan said Kolzig will be out three to four months. Unless Tampa Bay makes the playoffs, his season is over. It is unclear how this will affect the 17-year veteran's career. Kolzig spoke during Wednesday's practice and said he will not make any decisions about his future until the summer. He admitted, however, 'In my mind, there's a lot of doubt for my future as far as hockey goes.'"

If this is the end of Kolzig's NHL career, he has compiled an impressive body of work:

303 wins (301 with Washington, 21st in NHL history)

2.71 GAA/.906 save percentage

2.14 playoff GAA (16th all time)/.927 playoff save percentage

35 shutouts (tied for 37th in NHL history)

6 playoff shutouts

One hopes Kolzig can return from this to play another season and retire on his own terms, but this news -- and his comments -- is not good news in that regard.

A Tale of Two...Quotes

Consider these two quotes...

"No franchise in the league needs more help than the Islanders, the team that time has forgotten. And no city could do more with the spotlight [of a Rangers/Islanders Winter Classic] than New York. The biggest market could use some love once in a while, too."

"The {Phoenix] Coyotes operate under an onerous lease. But that's exactly what previous owner Steve Ellman signed on for in exchange for his land-grab in Glendale, which was exactly the wrong spot to build a new arena and everyone but everyone knew it. Ellman didn't care. He got his land. But now the NHL is supposed to bail out the franchise? Now the NHL is supposed to pump money into an organization that, somehow, is paying head coach Wayne Gretzky more than $5.5M this year and will pay Gretzky between $7-and-8M next season? Please."

Bet you're thinking these are unrelated comments from unrelated writers. Well, you'd be wrong. They would have been penned by the same hand -- the first on January 18th, the second only last weekend.

And yes, both come courtesy of New York's enthusiastic ambassador for...New York, the New York Post's own Larry Brooks.

Seems it's just fine for the league to put the 2010 Winter Classic outdoor game in New York for what is likely to be a deadly dull matchup between the Islanders and the Rangers just to save what looks to be a dying franchise on Long Island. It's just fine in Larry World (otherwise know as, "New York") for the league to forego ad revenue that a more attractive matchup might realize (and perhaps some potential additional ad buzz if the game is a hit). Brooks as much as acknowledges that a Caps/Penguins game -- the example he cited -- would generate higher ratings. But save Phoenix? Surely, you jest.

We're not of a mind to have the league pour money down a rat hole in the desert any more than we are for them to pour it into Long Island. Of course, we're not of a mind to actually commit to print this sort of chuckle, either...

"Tampa Bay management can deny, deny, deny in the best tradition of all sorts of scoundrels, but it is most certainly true that 2008 first-overall draft pick Steven Stamkos is available for trade, at least according to two franchises that have been in contact with the Lightning and have no reason to fib about it."

What's in that guy's morning coffee?


Thanks to Krazijoe on The Official for the latest Larryism.