Thursday, April 11, 2013

Washington Capitals: History Echoes in the Number "48"

In 1995, the National Hockey League was new to this whole “lockout” thing.  On the heels of what should have been a springboard to increased interest and attention paid to the sport – that being the benefit of a Stanley Cup won by the New York Rangers in 1994 after a 54-year drought since the Blueshirts last hoisted the Cup -- the league went ahead and shot itself in the foot (it would not be the last time).  The NHL missed three months of the season before sorting things out and starting an abbreviated 48-game schedule. 

For the team that lost to the Rangers in the 1994 Eastern Conference finals – the New Jersey Devils – the late season start was something that they found disagreeable.  Jacques Lemaire, in just his second season behind the Devils’ bench after taking over for the late Herb Brooks in the 1993-1994 season, watched in dismay as his team stumbled out of the gate to start the 1995 season, winless in their first four games before edging the Buffalo Sabres in Game 5 to go 1-3-1 in their first five games. 

The Devils stuggled to find traction over the next two months, failing to win any more than two games in a row and going 11-10-5 after their 1-3-1 start to sit in seventh place in the Eastern conference with a 12-13-6 record, clinging to a playoff spot only one point ahead of the Rangers, the Florida Panthers, and the Buffalo Sabres. 

But then, the Devils ran off their first three-game winning streak of the season.  That winning streak would be the start of a 10-5-2 finish that allowed the Devils to finish 22-18-8, tied with the Washington Capitals for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. 

Here were the Devils, a team with a coach in only his second season after an eight-year hiatus since his last NHL coaching stop, a team that struggled out of the gate early, a team that struggled to find its footing through the middle stretch of the season, a team that closed with a rush to secure a playoff spot.

And what did the Devils, who clawed their way to that playoff spot, do?  They dispatched the Boston Bruins in the first round in five games, limiting the Bruins to five goals and shutting them out three times.  They did the same to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Eastern Conference semi-finals, holding a Penguin team with two 20-goal scorers and 32-goal scorer Jaromir Jagr to just nine goals in five games. The Devils had a bit tougher time in the conference finals, beating the Philadelphia Flyers in six games, but did so by holding the Flyers to two or fewer goals in each of the four wins.  Finally, they capped off their playoff run with a flourish, sweeping the Detroit Red Wings in four games, holding the Wings to only seven goals in those four games.

A slow start, a struggle along the road, finding their way, and finally winning in a way that would become the team’s signature – in this case a stingy defense and rock-solid goaltending that held opponents to 34 goals in 20 post season games.

Any of this sounding the least bit familiar?  Well, at least in the season to date. 

Here sit the Washington Capitals 40 games into the 2013 season, a team that was also winless in their first four games before winning in Game 5 to go 1-3-1, a team that struggled to establish a consistent personality under a head coach with no previous NHL head coaching experience, a team for which the light seemed to go on over their collective heads 35 games into the season, one that has won its last five games, one that seems poised to secure a playoff spot when it was all but written off this time last month.

History never repeats itself perfectly, and there are differences between the 1995 New Jersey Devils and the 2013 Washington Capitals.  For instance, the Capitals do not have Martin Brodeur in goal.  But remember, too, that Brodeur had only 51 games of NHL experience before that Stanley Cup season and was coming off a 1994 post season in which he almost dragged the Devils to the Stanley Cup finals (he had a 1.95 goals against average and a .928 save percentage that post season). 

Braden Holtby should not be compared to Martin Brodeur for their comparative bodies of work, but Holtby’s early career path is not unrecognizable from Brodeur’s.  Holtby had only 21 games of NHL experience before this season, but he came up one goal allowed short of dragging the Caps to a conference final last spring (he had a 1.95 goals against and a .935 save percentage).

There are differences in coaching.  Jacques Lemaire did have two seasons of experience in Montreal, even if they did come eight years before taking over in New Jersey.  Adam Oates had no such experience before this season.  But in both one can see the attention to detail and the confidence in their philosophies.  Both know and inspire a perception that they know what they want to do and have a plan to do it.

The Devils of 1995 did not have anyone approximating Alex Ovechkin as a goal-scorer, or even Nicklas Backstrom as a playmaker.  Then again, the Caps have no one who could be mentioned in the same sentence (well, except this one) with Scott Stevens or Scott Niedermayer on the blue line.  But those differences reflect a certain sameness, a faithfulness to the talent on their respective rosters, a recognition of strengths and weaknesses.

In 1995, you would likely to have been hard pressed to find anyone who might have thought the Devils had a chance against the Quebec Nordiques (30-13-5), Pittsburgh (29-16-3), or Philadelphia (28-16-4) in the post season.  But the Devils beat two of those teams – Pittsburgh and Philadelphia – on their way to the Stanley Cup.

Few would give any team at the moment, including the Capitals, much of a chance in a seven-game series against Pittsburgh (assuming they get Sidney Crosby and James Neal back to full health), Boston, or even Montreal, a team the Caps just defeated.

We do not subscribe to the old saying that “anything can happen” in the playoffs.  Anything “can” happen, but rarely “does” anything happen.  It suggests too much luck, too much random influence.  Sometimes, though, a team finds itself along the way.  The early struggles and misfortune turn into success as the team finds a personality and confidence from simple repetition and learning of a hockey philosophy.

This year’s Capitals did not have the benefit of a full training camp to incorporate at least the basics of a new hockey system.  They had a new ingredient to incorporate in a critical position (Mike Ribeiro at center) and little time to find chemistry.  You had the team’s most important player playing a new position for the first time in his career with the entire world of hockey (and “world” would be the apt term) watching.

But here we are, the Capitals that struggled have strung together a nice run of success for themselves.  While it would be correct to point out that much of that run came at the expense of teams not having much success this season, we might agree that this is a much better team on April 10th than it was on February 10th – 3-8-1 and dead last in the Eastern Conference.

The phrase “anything can happen” has no meaning here.  That there is a template for success does.  And one only need go to the last time the NHL played a 48-game season to find it.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 41: Hurricanes at Capitals, April 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the ice again on Thursday night to host the Carolina Hurricanes in the last meeting between the clubs this season.

The teams met just nine days ago, the Caps winning in Raleigh by a 5-3 margin.  The win started the Caps’ five-game winning streak that they take into this game, while the Hurricanes might view the loss as just one more chapter in a horror story of Stephen King proportions.  When these two teams met nine days ago, Carolina was in the midst of gruesome 1-7-1 stretch that saw them fall out of first place in the Southeast Division into tenth place in the Eastern Conference.

After the Caps’ 5-3 win on that night, things have just gotten worse for Carolina.  The Hurricanes are 0-4-0 since facing the Caps nine days ago, making them 1-12-1 over their last 14 games.  And it is not as if the Hurricanes are losing close.  In the four losses since losing to the Caps at home, Carolina has been outscored, 20-6, three of the losses by three or more goals.  Only a 5-3 loss to Pittsburgh in the Hurricanes’ last game on Tuesday ended in almost respectable fashion.

In those four games there is no Carolina player with more than one goal, and there is no player with a last name other than “Staal” with as many as two points.  The best that can be said is that Carolina has spread small portions of scoring across the roster.  Six different players have one goal apiece in the four games, and eight players have recorded points.

In case you are wondering, former Capital Alexander Semin has neither a goal nor an assist in any of those four games.  Part of that is the fact that Semin missed two of those games to an “upper body injury.”

Special teams have been a sore spot for the Hurricanes.  Since they lost to the Caps last week, Carolina is just 1-for-11 on the power play (9.1 percent).  In fact, their two power play goals against the Caps on April 2nd is something of a high point.  It is the only time the Hurricanes recorded two power play goals in a game since February 12th, a total span of 27 games over which Carolina is 9-for-88 (10.2 percent).

Penalty killing has not been bad over the last four games – 8-for-10 (80.0 percent) – but it has hardly been enough to offset the poor performance on the other side of special teams.

Carolina is a team in free fall.  In their 1-12-1 stretch they have lost eight games by three or more goals.  They have been held to one or no goals eight times, all losses.

Here is how the teams compare across the board…

1.  The brothers Staal – Eric and Jordan – have one goal between them over their last six games.  Together they account for 25 of the 102 goals scored by Carolina this season.

2.  Only one defenseman – Jay Harrison – has played in all 39 games this season.  In fact, among the other defensemen for the Hurricanes, only Tim Gleason has played in as many as 33 games, and only four defensemen have played in as many as 30 games for Carolina this season.

3.  Carolina struggles late in games.  Although the 36 third period goals they have scored is a respectable number, tied for 13th in the league, the 49 third period goals allowed is exceeded only by the New York Islanders (51).

4.  When more than a third of the games you have played have ended in losses by three or more goals, you are going to struggle.  That is Carolina – 14 losses by three or more goals in 39 games.

5.  Conversely, no team has played in fewer one-goal games than the Hurricanes, and it is not close.  Carolina has only eight one-goal decisions this season (4-2-2).  Pittsburgh has the second fewest (13).

1.  Notes from the five-game winning streak… Goals leaders: Ovechkin (7), Green (3)… Assists leaders: Backstrom (9), Johansson (5)… Points leaders: Ovechkin (9), Backstrom (9)

2.  If the Caps had starts like their finishes, we might not be talking about “maybe” making the playoffs.  The Caps have only 30 first period goals in 40 games (16th in the league).  But their second periods (44/T-3rd) and third periods (41/T-5th) have been hard on opposing defenses.

3.  The Caps are 9-1-1 in their last 11 games.  Five of the nine wins were by one-goal.  That has allowed them to climb to tie for sixth in one-goal wins this season.

4.  Scoring first still does not matter much for the Capitals.  Their 13-8-1 record when scoring the game’s first goal is tied with Detroit for the sixth worst winning percentage in the league.

5.  The Caps remain one of two teams in the league that have not yet lost in the freestyle competition.  Both Washington and Pittsburgh are 3-0 in the Gimmick.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Dan Ellis/Justin Peters

It would be a bit trite to say that if Carolina has any glimmer of hope for a playoff spot, that leaders have to lead.  But the cold hard fact is, they have to stop the leakage in their own end.  And that starts with the goaltenders.  In the month of April, Carolina goaltenders have a save percentage of .858.  Overall, Peters ranks 47th among 51 qualifying goalies in goals against average (3.12); Ellis is right behind him at 48th  (3.19).  Ellis is tied for 37th in save percentage (.902); Peters is tied for 42nd (.899).  Everyone on that team can do more, but it is going to have to start in goal.

Washington: Mike Ribeiro

Since the trading deadline, Mike Ribeiro is 1-2-3, minus-1, in four games.  That’s not bad, but it is not what made him arguably the Caps’ most valuable player over the first half of the season.  Ribeiro does not have what one would call “pure finishers” on his second line – he started Tuesday’s game against Montreal with Troy Brouwer and Wojtek Wolski on his wings – but that just means he has to be more creative as a playmaker and a scorer.  He is, after all, the one in the contract year.  More important to the present, he is going to have to be productive to take pressure off the top line to be “on” every night.  He is 4-11-15, minus-6, in 24 career games against Carolina.


1.  Jump on ‘em early.  Carolina has a goal differential of minus-9 in the first period, and this team has not had nearly enough offense in the last month to be a come-from-behind team.

2.  Volume, Volume, Volume.  The Caps have had trouble with shot volumes allowed this season, but Carolina has had problems on steroids.  Seven times in the last 12 games the Hurricanes allowed 35 or more shots on goal.  If they do that against this offense, it could be ugly for the visitors.

3. Make hay….  The weather is nice and sunny, the trees are blooming.  This might look like an easy game, but Carolina has managed 16 wins.  The Caps have to make hay while the sun shines in DC…and that takes hard work.

In the end…

The temptation for fans is to think that this is an easy game against a struggling team.  But Carolina still has the brothers Staal, still has Alexander Semin, and still has Jiri Tlusty, who if you do not remember recorded a hat trick against the Caps the last time these teams met.  Take this game for granted, and it could be an opportunity wasted.

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 2