The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
When you are looking for perspective in sports and a quote
to capture the times, do not go to football, where clichés are the currency of
the locker room. Do not go to
basketball, where the slam dunk is evidence of nuance. Do not even go to hockey, where earnestness
and youth suggest a certain callowness, a lack of depth.
Go to baseball. And
who other than the immortal Lou Brown, former manager of the Toledo Mud Hens
and the Cleveland Indians, could capture what the current state of the Washington
Capitals is…
“OK, we won a game on Thursday. We won on Friday. It's called "two in a row". And if we win again on Sunday, it's called a ‘winning streak’... It has happened before.”
That about covers it.
The Capitals, winners of games on Thursday and Friday against the Tampa
Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs, step back onto the ice on Sunday
afternoon against the Buffalo Sabres at Verizon Center.
The Sabres come into this game with the league’s worst
record, 12-26-5. Only once all season
have the Sabres won consecutive games in regulation; only twice have they
pieced together two consecutive wins at all.
No Sabre who has been with the team all season…
- Ranks in the top 150 scorers (Cody Hodgson, tied for 194th)
- Ranks in the top 150 in goal scorers (Hodgson and Tyler Ennis, tied for 155th)
- Ranks in the top 150 in assists (Christian Ehrhoff, tied for 164th)
It gets worse. No
Sabre who has been with the club for half its games played has a plus-minus
better than minus-4 (Bryan Flynn in 41 games).
The Sabres do have five of the top 69 players in the league in penalty
minutes. The Sabres have not won a road
game in regulation time in more than two months (October 25th, a 3-1
win at Florida), and they have lost 11 road games in a row (0-9-2).
The only thing keeping this woeful band from challenging the
Capitals for all-time futility is Ryan Miller in goal. Miller, who is facing an astonishing 37.2
shots per 60 minutes of play, has a save percentage of .927, sixth best in the
league. Only five times in 30
appearances to date has Miller faced fewer than 30 shots on goal, games in
which he has a record of 3-2-0. Of
particular note in this game, Miller has yet to face fewer than 30 shots in a
road game this season. Not that it has
affected his save percentage, which is only three ticks lower (.925) than it is
at home (.928). He is getting next to no
help in front of him.
Here is how the teams compare overall…
1. It is hard to know
whether it is injuries, ineffectiveness, wanting to look at a lot of players in
a long season, or a combination of such factors, but the Sabres have had a lot
of churn in their lineup. Only 12 skaters
have appeared in more than 30 of the team’s 43 games to date. A total of 32 skaters have pulled on a Sabres
sweater so far this season, a number surely to go higher as the team starts
unloading players as a seller in this lost season.
2. No Sabre,
regardless of whether they are currently with the team or not, has a “plus”
rating on the road this season. Marcus
Foligno is “even” in the most games played.
3. If there is one
thing Buffalo has done reasonably well lately, it is kill penalties. Over their last 14 games the Sabres killed
off 39 of 42 power plays (92.9 percent).
In nine of those contests they faced three or fewer shorthanded
situations. Only once did they face as
many as five.
4. Pity their power
play is not as effective, at least from the perspective of a Sabres fan. Buffalo is 6-for-61 (9.8 percent) over their
last 19 games. Five times in that
stretch the Sabres had five or more power plays and were only 4-for-26 in those
games (15.4 percent).
5. When a team spends
little time in “5-on-5 close score” situations, that might signal that they are
a good team, that they get leads, add to them, and hold them. If you go to the extraskater.com Web site,
you will find that this is, in fact, true.
St. Louis and San Jose, both of them teams on the far side of 60
standings points earned so far, have spent the least amount of time in 5-on-5
close score situations. On the other
hand, Buffalo has spent a fair amount of time in those situations, the 12th
highest minute total in fact. But they
do so little with it. They have the
worst Corsi-for percentage and the worst Fenwick-for percentage. They have the fourth worst PDO (sum of
shooting and save percentages), despite having the 11th best save
percentage. The trouble is that they can’t
get that goal to put them over. They
have the worst shooting percentage (4.8 percent) and, as a result, the worst
goals for/goals against ratio in the league in that situation, giving up 56
goals while scoring only 26 themselves.
1. With the two
one-goal wins coming into this game the Capitals now rank third in the league
in one-goal wins. Of their 44 games
played to date, 24 of them have been decided by one goal. Only six teams have played in more. Maybe you think this is a good thing. Maybe it’s not; five of the six teams with
more one-goal games played are below the Caps in the standings (Montreal is the
exception).
2. Even with
outshooting Toronto Friday night, only the Maple Leafs and Buffalo have been
outshot in games more often (37 and 42 times, respectively) than the Caps (30).
3. The Caps do not
take leads into the locker room at the first intermission often, and when they
do things to not end as they should.
Only 11 times in 44 games have the Caps led after 20 minutes. Only five times have teams carried leads into
the second period fewer times, and the Caps have the seventh worst winning
percentage in the league in those instances.
On the other hand, they are still one of ten teams yet to lose a game in
regulation when taking a lead into the third period.
4. Alex Ovechkin has
assists in three straight games. It is
the first time he has done that in-season since getting helper in three
straight games March 2-7 last season.
Maybe this assist thing should happen more often. The Caps are 9-4-1 this season when Ovechkin
records an assist, 11-12-5 games played when he does not (does not include two
games missed to injury).
5. Possession is a
fickle mistress. In their last six games
the Caps have been on the good side of 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage in
5-on-5 close score situations. They are
just 2-2-2 in those games, but they do have those two consecutive wins coming
into this contest.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Buffalo: Matt Moulson
Since the 2009-2010 season only 16 players in the NHL have
recorded a total of 125 goals or more.
You would recognize the names of Alex Ovechkin or Steven Stamkos,
perhaps even James Neal and Patrick Marleau.
But Matt Moulson? Yes, he is one
of those 16. In fact, only 11 players
have more goals in that span of time than Moulson. He also happens to be one of the most durable
players in the league. He has not missed
a game to injury over those four-plus seasons (he missed one game last year to
the flu). He is the very embodiment of
the term “underrated.”
His scoring with the Sabres has come in fits and starts,
though. He has two goals in his first
start with the Sabres after being traded to Buffalo with two draft picks by the
New York Islanders for Thomas Vanek in late November. He had consecutive games with goals twice,
once at the end of November and again in mid-December. However, since those goals in consecutive
games back on December 14-17, Moulson has two goals in his last nine
games. He is 4-4-8 in 16 career games
against the Caps.
Washington: Braden Holtby
So, is Braden Holtby now number three on the goaltending
depth chart? On the
not-so-merry-go-round of Capitals goaltending these days, Michal Neuvirth had a
solid outing in his first game in seven weeks in Friday’s 3-2 win over Toronto. That makes Holtby low man on the totem pole
in terms of ice time lately. He has one
appearance since December 21st, a span of eight games without an
appearance. And that one did not go
nearly as well as hoped.
A lot of goaltenders go through slumps, through crises of confidence, through
dark nights of the soul early in their careers.
Remember, Holtby has not yet appeared in 100 regular season games. Here is one thing arguing against Holtby
starting against the Sabres. This is a
3:00 start; Holtby is 3-2-0, 2.83, with just a .902 save percentage in career
day games. Still, he has to get back on
the horse some time.
Keys:
1. Spike Ryan Miller’s
morning coffee. Fifty shots, one goal. That was what the Caps managed against Miller
in the Sabres’ 2-1 Gimmick win over Washington on December 29th. If he’s that sharp, it might not matter what
the Caps do otherwise. Maybe he’s been
bored, though. He faced a total of only
53 shots in two appearances since that game.
2. Nyah-nyah. One of the things that worked against the
Caps in the previous meeting of these clubs was that the Caps had but two power
plays (the Sabres had none…watch to see who the refs are for this one; Rob
Martell and Wes McCauley officiated the last one). Buffalo’s penalty kill has been very good of
late, but the Caps are second in the league on the power play and are three for
their last nine chances. If they can get
the Sabres to take penalties, all the better.
3. Spike Ryan Miller’s morning coffee again.
In the end…
It has been a month since the Caps had a three-game winning
streak. On paper, that should be
remedied in this game. And, as a
practical matter, it had better be.
After what looks (repeat, “looks”) like a walk-over game, the schedule
gets a lot tougher with San Jose and Pittsburgh looming later in the week. That is where the danger in this game lies,
looking ahead. That is the kind of
thing, coupled with Ryan Miller (if he should be nearly as sharp as the last
time these teams met), that could make for a maddeningly frustrating sort of
game. It will not be without its
moments, but in the end…
Capitals 3 – Sabres 2