The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals follow up one of their longest
off-ice stretches of the season – five days (matching a stretch they had in
late October) – with their longest home stand of the season, starting with a
contest against the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday night at Capital One Arena.
The lull in the schedule came at what might seem an
inopportune time for the Caps, who take a three-game winning streak into this
game, all of them against difficult opponents (Ottawa, Tampa Bay, and
Toronto). The last time the Caps had a
five day break in the schedule, they went on their western Canada tour and lost
two of three games. Perhaps of relevance
to this game, in the first game coming out of that five-game break, the Caps
fell behind the Vancouver Canucks, 3-0, before the first intermission,
eventually trailing by a 5-0 margin before going quietly in a 6-2 loss.
Washington will be looking to avoid a similar fate, and this
might be the opponent against which they can do so. When the Kings defeated the Detroit Red Wings
on Tuesday night, 4-1, at Little Caesars Arena, it was their first win on the
road in regulation time since they defeated the Montreal Canadiens, 4-0, back
on October 26th. Since then,
the Kings are 3-2-1 on the road, two of the wins coming in overtime.
Over those six road contests, Anze Kopitar leads the team in
goals (six) and points (eight). Kopitar
is following up what was, for him, a disappointing 2016-2017 season (12-40-52,
minus-10) by piling up points with a vengeance.
He has already tied his goal output of last year (12), and his 28 points
is tied for ninth in the league through Tuesday’s games. His 1.12 points per game pace so far would
be, if carried through to the end of the season, his best in the NHL, surpassing
the 81 points in 82 games (0.99) he had in the 2009-2010 season. Kopitar has points in eight of 11 road
contests this season and has three three-point games among them, recording two
goals and an assist against the San Jose Sharks, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and
just this past Tuesday against Detroit.
In 14 career games against the Caps, Kopitar is 9-5-14, plus-3.
Since he came into the league in the 2008-2009 season,
defenseman Drew Doughty is one of five blueliners to appear in 700 or more
games (713), joining Keith Yandle (717), Brent Seabrook (715), Ryan Suter
(708), and Shea Weber (700). Over that
same period, Doughty ranks eighth among defensemen in points (380), seventh in
goals (96), sixth in assists (284), and second in total minutes played
(18,692). He shows little sign of slowing down at the moment, posting points in
six of his last seven games overall (1-6-7).
His durability is impressive. The
last time he skated less than 20 minutes in a game was April 3, 2014 in a game
against the San Jose Sharks in which he skated just 5:21 in the first period
before sustaining a bruised left shoulder that would keep him out of four games
to end the regular season. Those happen
to be the only games he has missed since he missed five games of the 2011-2012
season. Doughty is 1-4-5, plus-3, in 13
career games against the Caps.
Adrian Kempe leads the Kings in scoring among rookies. The term rookie barely applies here. As the astute NHL fan knows (and now we quote
from the NHL guidelines), “to be
considered a rookie, a player must not have played in more than 25 NHL games in
any preceding seasons, nor in six or more NHL games in each of any two
preceding seasons. Any player at least 26 years of age (by September 15th of
that season) is not considered a rookie.”
Last season, his first in the NHL, Kempe appeared in 25 games, going
2-4-6, minus-3. After struggling at the
end of his first year stint last season (no points in his last 11 games), he
came out strong this season to rank 12th among all rookies in points
so far this season. Kempe had a blazing
stretch over a five-game period in late October when he went 6-3-9, including a
hat-trick and four-point game against the Montreal Canadiens on October 18th. He is one of three rookies with hat tricks
this season (Alex DeBrincat and Brock Boeser being the others), and he is one
of four rookies with a four-point game (DeBrincat, Boeser, and Mathew Barzal
rounding out the quartet). He had a goal
in his only career appearance against the Caps to date, in a 4-2 Kings win on
last March 11th.
1. It might be a
trivial thing (or a really, really random fact), but the Kings avoid penalties
of a certain sort. Outside of minor and
major penalties this season (that is, including only misconducts, game
misconducts, match, and bench penalties), the Kings have recorded only two
infractions this season. Only the Vegas
Golden Knights have recorded fewer (a bench minor).
2. The Kings won
Stanley Cups playing a rugged, physical style.
It has not abated. The Kings rank
third in the league in credited hits (623), trailing only Arizona (646) and
Edmonton (718).
3. On the other hand,
they have difficulty pilfering the puck, or at least getting credit for
it. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the
league in takeaways (125). That they
have the seventh-most giveaways raises the issue of whether this is a team that
turns over the puck too much without getting many in return.
4. Los Angeles does a
good job winning games when they score first (tied for eighth in winning
percentage when they do), but they just do not do it often enough. They have scored first in just nine of their
25 games. Only Edmonton has scored first
in fewer games (eight).
5. The Kings do not
have especially impressive possession numbers overall (14th in shot
attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5: 50.59 percent), but they are good in tight
games, ranking fifth in both tied situations (53.83 percent) and close
situations (52.85 percent; numbers from NHL.com).
1. After going 1-3-0
in their first four home games, the Caps are 7-1-0 in their last eight home
contests, outscoring opponents, 24-15, and holding four of their last six
opponents to a single goal.
2. In that 7-1-0 home
stretch, the Caps’ special teams have hardly been impressive. The power play (19.4 percent) and penalty
kill (76.9 percent) have combined for a rather weak 96.3 special teams index.
3. Only three teams
in the league have more penalty minutes per game taken than the Caps (11:14),
more penalties in total (117), and more minor penalties (103).
4. Washington is
fourth in the league in winning percentage when scoring first (.800), but they
are another team that could do so more often, scoring first in just ten of 25
games so far this season.
5. No team has fewer
players with five or more goals scored than Washington, with four (Alex
Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Jakub Vrana). Six other teams also have four (Boston,
Calgary, Dallas, Edmonton, Ottawa, and San Jose).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Los Angeles: Jonathan Quick
Jonathan Quick looks like Jonathan Quick again. After a 2017-2017 season limited to 17 games
due to a groin injury, Quick has re-established himself as one of the best
netminders in the league. Among 36
goalies with at least 500 minutes (through Tuesday’s games), Quick ranked sixth
in the league in goals against average (2.28) and save percentage (.929). His two shutouts were topped only by Devan
Dubnyk, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Frederik Andersen with three apiece. That save percentage number is, for the
moment, Quick’s best since he posted a .929 save percentage (his career best)
in 2011-2012, a year in which he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most
valuable player in the postseason during the Kings’ Stanley Cup run that
season. But his current .929 save
percentage comes with some caveats. His
save percentage of .926 when the Kings are shorthanded ranks fifth among 36 goalies
appearing in at least ten games.
However, his even strength save percentage of .926 ranks just 14th
in that same group. What he has been
this season is consistent, whether at home (5-5-1, 2.27, .930, one shutout) or
on the road (6-3-0, 2.29, .927, one shutout).
In nine career games against the Caps, Quick is 7-2-0, 2.39, .915.
Washington: Braden Holtby
“Home Warrior” would be a good nickname for Braden Holtby
this season. His .942 save percentage is
third best in the league among 35 goalies with at least 250 minutes logged on
home ice, just rounding error behind Ben Bishop and six percentage points
behind Sergei Bobrovsky. His 1.89 goals
against average ranks fourth among that group on home ice. It is what made the performance against the
Calgary Flames, one in which he allowed four goals on 39 shots, so odd. In 168 games on home ice since he came into
the league, it was just the 21st time he allowed four or more goals.
It seemed to be little more than a speed bump, though, as he returned to his
customary home ice form in stopping 29 of 31 shots in a 5-2 win over the Ottawa
Senators before stopping 27 of 29 shots in a 4-2 win in Toronto over the Maple
Leafs last Saturday. Over the last four
seasons, including this one, no goalie in the league has allowed two or fewer
goals in more games than Holtby, and it’s not close. He has done so 139 times in 220 games
played. Pekka Rinne has done it 122
times in 210 games. Holtby is 1-1-1,
2.33, .920, with one shutout in three career appearances against Los Angeles.
In the end…
The Kings started hot, going 11-2-2 in their first 15 games,
but they have been skating in mud lately, going 3-6-1 in their last ten
contests. Only twice in those ten
contests did the Kings score more than two goals, both times recording wins
(the other win was in a 2-1 Gimmick decision over Anaheim). Only twice in that same stretch did the Kings
allow four or more goals, which suggests this might be a low scoring affair,
especially with the fine play of Quick and Holby in goal of late. This might not be the best of signs for the
Caps, though, who are 1-9-0 in games in which they scored two or fewer goals,
and the win came in a trick shot competition against the Edmonton Oilers. Think of this game as evening things out a
bit.
Capitals 2 – Kings 1