The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
For the Washington Capitals, these are the best of times – regular season edition. Winners of four straight, eight of their last ten, and with a record of 24-4-3 since December 5th and a ten-game winning streak on home ice, the Caps will host the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night at Verizon Center looking to extend their good fortune another night.
For the Washington Capitals, these are the best of times – regular season edition. Winners of four straight, eight of their last ten, and with a record of 24-4-3 since December 5th and a ten-game winning streak on home ice, the Caps will host the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night at Verizon Center looking to extend their good fortune another night.
The Caps’ record on home ice has been stunning. In their ten-game winning streak, they have
outscored their opponents by a combined 50-12, scoring five or more goals in
each of their last nine games at Verizon Center.
The Red Wings, opening a three-game road trip, have been
struggling in their quest to reach the postseason for the 26th
consecutive season. They bring a modest
three-game points streak into this contest (2-0-1) having lost in overtime to
the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday night, 3-2. It is one in a cruel stretch of games for the
Wings, who have four overtime losses in their last eight games (2-2-4 overall). Scoring has been an issue over those eight
games for Detroit, having recorded a total of only 16 goals and being shut out
twice, both times on home ice.
Henrik Zetterberg had a hand in almost half of those 16
goals, going 2-5-7 over that stretch.
Now the grand old man for the Wings – the oldest player to dress for the
club this season and one of the last links to the last Stanley Cup winning team
in 2008 – he is not going gently into that good night. Zetterberg leads the team in assists (27),
points (38), plus-minus (plus-13), and ice time among forwards (19:23 per
game. He is on a pace to record his
third-straight 50-point season (59) and his tenth such season in a 14-year
career, all in Detroit. If he should
appear in all of the Red Wings remaining games this season, he would finish the
year with a round 1,000 NHL games played in his career, the seventh player to
reach that milestone for the club. In 18
career games against the Caps, Zetterberg is 6-6-12, minus-1.
With Niklas Kronwall – another link to that 2008 Stanley Cup
winning team – on the shelf with an injury, Darren Helm is the third and last
link on the current club to those glory days.
Helm is something of a survivor, or at least persistent. He has played every one of his tens seasons
with the Red Wings and is one of just 38 players in the history of the
franchise to play at least ten seasons.
He is in the top-50 in total games played for the club (468). It would be more but for having missed 28
games this season to a dislocated shoulder suffered in November that kept him
out of the lineup until January 20th. His role has been as a reliable bottom-six
forward, a role in which he has enjoyed some success. In six full seasons (he missed most of the
2012-2013 to injury) he has never finished with less than 20 points, and only
in 2011-2012 did he finish with fewer than ten goals (9). In his eight games back from his shoulder
injury, coinciding with the 2-2-4 skid on which the Wings find themselves, he
is 2-1-3, minus-2, and is on a pace to finish with 13 goals and 22 points. Helm is 1-1-2, minus-4, in 12 career games
against the Caps.
Goaltender Jimmy Howard suffered a knee injury in late
December, and he has been on a rehab assignment in Grand Rapids with the
Griffins in anticipation of his return to Detroit. In the meantime, Petr Mrazek has had the
number one netminding duties. It is a
role with which he has struggled. Since
taking over for Howard, Mrazek is 3-6-3, 3.21, .894, but he did have a 42-save
shutout of the Nashville Predators last Saturday. Mrazek is 1-2-1, 1.54, .944, with one shutout
in four career appearances against the Caps.
1. Detroit has been
charged with 19 fighting majors through 53 games this season. That is more than the last two seasons
combined (16) and the most since they had 19 in the 2009-2010 season.
2. Outshooting the
opposition is hardly a guarantee of success for the Red Wings. Their eight wins in 19 games when outshooting
opponents is fewer wins than all but four other teams, all of whom are outside
the playoff eligibility group (Dallas, Buffalo, Colorado, and Arizona). Detroit has more wins when outshot by
opponents (13) than they do when outshooting them.
3. If the game is a
blowout, chances are the Red Wings are on the wrong side of it. Their .286 winning percentage in decisions of
three or more goals (4-10 record) is the fifth-worst in the league.
4. Detroit has the
worst record in the league when scoring first (10-6-6/.455). Only Colorado has fewer wins (9) when scoring
first.
5. It should be no
surprise that Detroit struggles with possession. The Red Wings rank 23rd in
Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (48.08 percent) overall and when adjusted for score, zone,
and venue (47.78 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
1. Lars Eller became
the tenth player this season to hit double digits in goals when he scored
against Carolina on Tuesday night. The
Caps had only eight players hit that mark last season. They did have ten players reach that mark in
2014-2015. The last time they had more
players hit that mark was 1993-1994, when 13 players had 10 or more goals.
2. The Caps have been
liberal in spreading ice time around.
Among the 12 forwards appearing in at least 40 games so far this season,
only Daniel Winnik is averaging less than ten minutes at even strength (9:55),
and no one has more than Evgeny Kuznetsov (14:32 per game).
3. Among active
defensemen, only six have more blocked shots in the post-2004-2005 lockout
period than Brooks Orpik. His next one
will be his 1,500th in that span.
4. Do the Caps get
offense from defense? Consider
this. Since the 2004-2005 lockout, four
of the top five defensemen in total points scored for the Caps are active with
this team: John Carlson (254), Karl Alzner (114), Matt Niskanen (94), and Dmitry
Orlov (86). Mike Green, who the Caps
will see on Thursday, leads with 360 points.
5. For all the
fireworks at home lately, the Caps have been struggling a bit in
possession. They rank 13th in
Corsi-for at 5-on-5 on home ice (50.97 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Detroit: Mike Green
He is not the offensive defenseman he was in his heyday with
the Washington Capitals, but in his season and a half in Detroit, Mike Green is
in the top-20 among league defensemen in total goals scored (17), top 15 in power play goals (7),
top-25 in total power play points (27), and is in the top-30 in points overall
(61). He has been a bit of a good luck
charm this season, the Wings sporting a 5-1-1 record in games in which Green
recorded a goal. It does not extend
quite as far to when Green had a point, the Wings being 11-5-4 in those
games. As was the case when he was a
Capital, Green has been a minutes-eater, but that has been a mixed
blessing. Detroit is just 8-11-4 in the
23 games in which Green skated more than 24 minutes. Green does not have a point and is minus-1 in
the four career games he has against the Caps.
Washington: Karl
Alzner
In one respect it is tempting to think of Karl Alzner as the
“above average” defenseman. This season,
he is averaging 20:03 in ice time per game.
In 27 games he skated more than that, the Caps are 23-1-3. When skating less than that, the Caps are
14-10-3. Perhaps is it the product of
his role. Being a defensive defenseman, he’s going to be out there trying to
protect a lead. When the Caps are trying
to catch up, he’s not going to get so much time. He does have that secondary scoring thing
going, though. Washington has won all
nine games in which he has a point this season.
Even though Alzner is to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of
this season, he will finish this season in the top ten among defensemen in
franchise history in games played. His
563 games played in the NHL, all with the Caps, ranks tenth all time on the
franchise list of defensemen. Alzner is
0-3-3, plus-4, in 14 career games against Detroit.
In the end…
Nine of the last ten games the Red Wings have played ended
in one-goal decisions, and they are 4-1-4 in those games. On the other hand, of the Caps’ last 17
games, 12 of them were multi-goal decisions of which the Caps won 11. The key factor in whether this is the close
game the Red Wings seem to favor at the moment or the blowout characterizing
Caps games recently is whether Red Wing goalie Petr Mrazek (assuming he gets
the nod) plays like he has against the Caps during his career or how he has
played recently. If the former, the Red
Wings could surprise. If the latter,
well…
Capitals 4 – Red Wings 1