The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wind up their three-game road swing
against arguably their stiffest opponent on the trip when they visit the Tampa
Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena in Tampa.
The Lightning come into this contest with the best record in the Eastern
Conference (through Sunday’s games), 18-7-3, and the second-best record in the
league.
Tampa Bay has yet to lose consecutive games in regulation
time this season, an important note for this contest since the Lightning lost
to the Columbus Blue Jackets, 3-1, in their last outing. The Lightning have been especially formidable
at home, where their 11-3-1 record is, again, best in the East and second-best
in the league. Until they lost to the
Blue Jackets last Saturday, Tampa Bay had reeled off five straight wins at home,
outscoring opponents by a combined 20-7 margin.
The formula for that five-game home winning streak was
simple: do everything well. Special
teams… power play went 6-for-19 (31.6 percent), penalty kill went 13-for-15
(86.7 percent). Even strength? Tampa Bay outscored opponents, 14-5. Goaltending… .940 save percentage.
Suspects usual and unusual contributed to that five-game
winning streak. Among the former, Steven
Stamkos was 3-6-9. Tyler Johnson, who is
apparently suffering no “sophomore slump” after his Calder Trophy-finalist season last year, was 1-3-4, as was Valtteri
Filppula. Perhaps unexpectedly, Nikita
Kucherov had a pair of goals in the five-game home winning streak, allowing him
to match in 24 games overall the nine goals he recorded in 52 games last
season. Ryan Callahan, not normally thought of as a big scorer, was 4-5-9.
Backstopping all of this in goal was Ben Bishop, who earned
the decision in each of the five straight home wins. In addition to being 5-0-0, Bishop recorded a
goals-against average of 1.40 and a save percentage of .940, along with one shutout. In five career games against Washington,
Bishop is 1-2-1, 4.14, .884. That lone
win came in a 4-3 win on November 1st against the Capitals in which he stopped
28 of 31 shots.
Here is how the teams compare in their overall numbers:
1. Some teams play
suffocating defense like a boa constrictor, squeezing the life out of a
team. Tampa Bay is more like a Gatling
gun that doesn’t ever seem to run out of ammunition. The Lightning lead the league in scoring
offense, but they have a certain relentlessness in doing it. Tampa Bay is the only team in the league
having scored 30 or more goals in each of the three periods of games this
season. Their 30 first period goals ranks
tied for third in the league, their 31 second period goal ranks tied for fifth,
and their 34 third period tallies ranks tied for second.
2. The Lightning have
scored more even strength goals this season than any other team, and it’s not
all that close. Their 69 goals is a
healthy margin more than second place Calgary (64).
3. Blowouts? Yeah, the Lightning can do that. No team has more wins by three or more goals
(they are tied with Chicago with nine), and their .750 winning percentage in
decisions of three or more goals is second in the league to the Blackhawks.
4. As prolific a team
as Tampa Bay is on offense, you would think them a capable come from behind
team. They are not, at least when it
comes to comebacks from deficits at the second intermission. Tampa Bay (0-7-0) joins Columbus (0-11-0),
Buffalo (0-13-0), and Arizona (0-11-0) as the only teams not to have earned a
standings point when trailing in games after two periods.
5. There are 34
players in the league with a plus-10 or better.
The Lightning have six of them: Anton Stralman (+17), Tyler Johnson
(+15), Ondrej Palat (+15), Nikita Kucherov (+14), Jason Garrison (+11), and
Ryan Callahan (+10).
1. The Caps have the third-best winning percentage in the
league when scoring first: 11-1-1/.846, behind Toronto (11-0-0) and Montreal
(9-0-0).
2. Maybe it’s the
travel that brings out the Caps’ ornery side, but only four teams (New York
Islanders, Ottawa, Buffalo, and Winnipeg) have been credited with more hits on
the road than the Capitals (380).
3. Washington is one
of only six teams with a positive turnover differential on the road this season
(takeaways minus giveaways), and their +15 is best in the league.
4. Sure, the Caps
have the fifth-fewest shots per game allowed in the league (27.7), but they
have outshot opponents only 15 times in 26 games and have the league’s
fifth-worst winning percentage when they do (5-7-3/.333).
5. Last season the
Caps were whistled for nine bench minor penalties. So far this season they have been charged
just once. Only Calgary and St. Louis
have escaped being charged with a bench minor penalty.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Tampa Bay: Ryan Callahan
When the Tampa Bay Lightning traded Martin St. Louis to the
New York Rangers for Ryan Callahan, a first round draft pick in 2015, and a
second round draft pick in 2014, the Lightning might have thought they were
getting a heart-and-soul guy who would leave all of his effort on the ice every
night. What they might not have counted
on was goal scoring. Through 23 games
played so far this season, Callahan has 11 goals, a 37-goal pace that would
obliterate his career high of 29 goals in the 2011-2012 season. His 11 goals in 23 games matches the 11 goals
he recorded for the Rangers last season in 45 games before he was dealt to the
Lightning. He has hit a bit of a soft
spot, though, having gone his last four games without a goal, his longest
streak without one this season. Callahan
is 12-7-19, plus-9 in 26 career games against Washington.
Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov
With four shots on goal (one goal) against the New Jersey
Devils last Saturday, it marked consecutive games with shots on goal for Evgeny
Kuznetsov for the first time since November 14-15 against the Devils and St.
Louis. It was the first time he recorded
consecutive games with multiple shots on goal (he had two against Vancouver a
week ago) for the first time since November 2-4 against Arizona and
Calgary. That is what a promotion to the
second line and power play time will do. He has goals in two
of his last four outings after going 11 straight games without a goal. Kuznetsov has an assist in two career games
against Tampa Bay.
In the end…
The Caps have not played many games against Atlantic
Division opponents, but what they have faced has not provided much in the way of happy
endings. The Caps are 2-4-1 against the
Atlantic so far, their wins coming against Boston and in a Gimmick against
Florida. They lost to these same
Lightning, 4-3, back on November 1st.
Since then the Caps are 8-6-2 overall, two of those losses coming in the only
games they played against the Atlantic, to Buffalo and to Toronto. This will be the first of two meetings
against Tampa Bay in a four-day span, the second game to be played on December
13th in Washington. This game, and the
one to follow, provides a good benchmark for evaluating the Caps as they
approach the one-third mark of the season.
On paper, Tampa is the stronger team at both ends of the rink. However, while Tampa Bay stumbled in their
last game against a weaker Metropolitan Division opponent, the Caps gave hints
in their last two games, both of which they limited their opponent to one goal,
that a run could be coming.
Capitals 4 – Lightning 3