The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals head back on the road and hope to
find some spark there as they visit south Florida and the Florida Panthers on
Thursday night. The Caps actually have a
better record on the road in their last five out-of-town games (3-1-1) than
they do at home over their last five contests at Capital One Arena (2-2-1).
The Panthers are making a late run, but it might be a bit
too late to challenge for a playoff spot.
Florida is 7-3-0 over their last ten games, and they might be slipping back
into mediocrity with losses in each of their last two contests going into this
game. It is no mystery regarding the
recent overall success. The Panthers
scored at least three goals in each of the seven wins and did not reach three
goals in any of the three losses.
Evgenii Dadonov and Aleksander Barkov have combined to
record almost a third of the 34 goals the Panthers scored over their last ten
games, five apiece. This is Dadonov’s
second tour with the franchise. He was
taken by the Panthers in the third round (71st overall) of the 1007
entry draft. After three seasons with
only intermittent play with the big club, but after two more seasons in Russia
and a year and a half in the AHL, with some intermittent action with the
Panthers, he was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes with A.J. Jenks for Jon
Matsumoto and Mattias Lindstrom in January 2012. At the end of the 2011-2012 season he headed
back to Russia, signing with Donetsk in the KHL. It was not until last July that he returned
to the team that drafted him, signing as a free agent with the Panthers. In his second tour with the club he is having
a career year. His 49 games almost
matches his total in his first tour (55 games over three seasons), and his 15
goals is more than his total in his first tour with the club (ten). He comes into this game with points in four
of his last five games and 8-8-16 in his last 18 games. Dadonov is 2-1-3, minus-4, in eight career
games against Washington.
Barkov is not just scoring on his own, he is involved with
Panther scoring generally over their last ten games. With a 5-6-11 scoring line, he has been
involved in almost a third of the Panthers’ goal scored by himself. The five goals scored has allowed him to hit
the 20-goal mark for the third consecutive season, and his 54 points overall
put him close to his career best of 59 points in 66 games of the 2015-2016
season. The odd part of his goal scoring
to date is the drop in efficiency from his previous two seasons. In 2015-2016 Barkov had 28 goals on 171 shots
(16.4 percent shooting), and last season he had 21 goals on 142 shots (14.8
percent). Going into this game, he has
20 goals on a career high 185 shots (10.8 percent). Five of those goals are shorthanded, most in
the league. Barkov is 3-4-7, plus-3, in
11 career games against the Caps.
That Keith Yandle would lead the team’s defensemen in
scoring over the 7-3-0 run (2-8-10) is not a surprise. The Mike Matheson would be second – and the
leader in goals – might be (4-4-8).
Matheson was a first round pick of the Panthers (23rd overall
in 2012) and appeared in 81 of 82 games last season, his rookie year (second in
the NHL). He has already surpassed last
year’s goals, assists, and points (7-1-0-17) in just 56 games this season
(8-14-22). The Panthers depend on his
production for success, going 14-5-0 in the 19 games in which he registered a
point this season and going 5-2-0 in those games in which he scored a
goal. And, his being on the ice is
generally a good luck charm, the Panthers with a 12-4-1 record in games in
which he skated more than 22 minutes. In
five career games against the Capitals, Matheson is 1-0-1, even.
1. In their 7-3-0
run, Florida has out-shot opponents by a 352-313 margin (plus-3.9 shots per
game).
2. Over that same
ten-game span, the Panthers have the best power play in the league at 12-for-34
(35.3 percent), those 12 power play goals also being most in the league over
that span (tied with Tampa Bay).
3. Florida is tied
for the league lead this season in shorthanded goals scored (nine, with Buffalo…go
figure).
4. No team in the
league has more penalty minutes per game than Florida (11:41), largely a
product of their leading the league in fighting majors, and by a wide
margin. They have 34 fighting majors to
23 for the Anaheim Ducks.
5. Florida might be
doing better if their possession numbers were better when they were ahead. In the rankings at NHL.com, the Panthers rank
14th in shot attempts-for percentage when behind (53.69), 18th
when tied (49.47), and 17th in close situations (50.29). But when ahead, they rank only 27th
(44.14).
1. When the Caps
recorded 37 shots on goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday night, it
broke an eight game streak in which they did not record more than 30 shots on
goal in a game (they had 30 in the 3-2 win over Buffalo on Sunday).
2. The Caps allowed
just 19 shots to the Lightning on Tuesday, a season low in shots on goal
allowed. The previous low was 23,
accomplished three times.
3. Jay Beagle’s
individual shot attempts-for percentage on ice (38.84) is second worst in the league
among 617 skaters appearing in at least 25 games (Buffalo’s Jacob Josefson has a
37.91 percent in 29 games).
4. Alex Ovechkin is
tied with four other players for the league lead in overtime goals with three
(David Perron, Sean Monahan, Nathan MacKinnon, and Brayden Point).
5. Ovechkin leads in
shots on goal, but Dmitry Orlov has been on ice for the most shot attempts by
the club at 5-on-5 (1075, 37 more than John Carlson). Ovechkin ranks third with 907.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Florida: Roberto Luongo
It has been a hard year on goalie Roberto Luongo. He missed 33 games over two tours on the
injury list, missing six games to a broken thumb in October, and then missing
27 games after suffering a groin injury on December 4th. He could end this season appearing in fewer
games over a full season than any in his 18-year career in the NHL (he appeared
in 24 games in his rookie season with the New York Islanders in 1999-2000. Luongo, the oldest goalie in the league to
dress this season (he will be 39 years old in April), is the only goaltender
active in the league to have dressed for an NHL game before the calendar rolled
over to the year 2000.
This will be Luongo’s first home game (assuming he starts)
since his return. He split two road
decisions, stopping 30 of 33 shots in a 6-3 win over the Calgary Flames on February
17, and stopping all but one of 31 shots in a 1-0 loss to the Toronto Maple
Leafs on Tuesday. In his limited duty
this season he has faced a lot of rubber.
In nine of his 17 appearances he faced 35 or more shots on goal,
although he does have a .934 save percentage in those games to go with a 4-3-1
record (one no-decision). Luongo is
20-12-3, 2.39, .924, with two shutouts in 38 career appearances against the
Caps. Those 38 appearances are tied for
second-most among active goaltenders, with Marc-Andre Fleury. Cam Ward has 41 career appearances against
the Caps.
Washington: Andre Burakovsky
It has been a rough season for Andre Burakovsky, too. Limited to 34 games due to injury (23 games
to illness and a broken thumb) and inconsistent play, he has just 14 points
this season (six goals, eight assists) and is a minus-9, second worst on the
team (Brooks Orpik: minus-11). He was
showing signs of coming out of his season-long funk with six points over an
eight-game stretch from January 25th through February 15th. However, he is without a point in his last
three games and is a minus-4 over that stretch.
Not only has Burakovsky’s production overall been disappointing, it has been inconsistent. He has points in just ten of those 34 games, although if you are looking for a silver lining, he has three multi-point games, all of them in wins and all of them on the road. And, he has to do more with the ice time he gets. Burakovsky has logged 13 or more minutes 20 times this season. In those 20 games he is 4-5-9, minus-3, and the Caps are 6-10-4 in those games. Not the profile one might want in a top-six forward, the expectation for Burakovsky. He is 2-2-4, minus-5, in nine games against Florida in his career.
Not only has Burakovsky’s production overall been disappointing, it has been inconsistent. He has points in just ten of those 34 games, although if you are looking for a silver lining, he has three multi-point games, all of them in wins and all of them on the road. And, he has to do more with the ice time he gets. Burakovsky has logged 13 or more minutes 20 times this season. In those 20 games he is 4-5-9, minus-3, and the Caps are 6-10-4 in those games. Not the profile one might want in a top-six forward, the expectation for Burakovsky. He is 2-2-4, minus-5, in nine games against Florida in his career.
In the end…
The Caps have alternated wins and losses on the road since
sweeping the Carolina Hurricanes ten days apart in early January (4-2-2). Continuing the pattern would mean a loss in
this game, the Caps having taken advantage of the Sabres in Buffalo last
Sunday. Patterns aside, this is a game
the Caps could, should, and must win, if they are to continue to be a credible
contender for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. Yes, they currently occupy that spot and
would occupy it even with a loss (Pittsburgh, one point back, does not play again
until Friday). But the Caps are entering
what should be a soft spot in their schedule – Florida, Buffalo, Columbus, and
Ottawa, only Columbus playoff eligible and occupying the second wild card spot
at that. If the Caps don’t make hay
here, the sun might not shine so brightly after it with a game against the
spunky Toronto Maple Leafs and then the three-game California trip
following. It makes beating the Panthers
a priority.
Capitals 3 – Panthers 2