Three games into the Stanley Cup final, and the Washington Capitals are in a place they have never been – a two games to one lead in the last playoff series of the season, win or lose. Capitals Nation is hoping for the “win” part of that phrase, and we are thinking about those first three games and whether there is anything that stands out. Let’s take a look…
-- The Caps have dressed the same 18 skaters in the three
games so far. While this sounds a bit
trivial, consider that the Caps are nursing injuries. Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov
undoubtedly are grinding through lingering “upper body” injuries (likely hand
for Backstrom, wrist for Kuznetsov).
These are the most recent examples of just what hockey players endure at
this time of year to keep moving forward toward their goal of a
championship. That these injuries would
hit the top two centers in a manner most likely to affect the strength of their
respective games (healthy hands for an offensively-productive player are
something of a necessity) speaks to how much this team is determined to see
things through.
-- Time on ice. There
are several things that stand out here.
First, that at evens, it is the second forward line getting most of the
action. T.J. Oshie leads the team's forwards with
16:21 in even strength ice time, and Nicklas Backstrom is second (16:08). Lars Eller, getting mostly third line minutes
in this series, is third with 15:39. The
flip side of this is the top line. There
is Tom Wilson leading that trio of forwards with 15:24 in even strength ice
time per game. Alex Ovechkin, in perhaps
his most productive (in an efficiency sense) postseason ever, is fifth among
the 12 forwards to dress so far with 14:36 in even strength ice time per
game. The last member of that top line
trio – Evgeny Kuznetsov – is averaging only 11:55 at evens through three games,
but that number is depressed by his skating just 4:26 (all at even strength) in
Game 2 before departing with an injury.
-- More time on ice.
The defense so far reflects a distinct pecking order with respect to ice
time. At even strength, there is the top
pair of Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov, who are averaging 22:58 and 22:27 in
even strength ice time per game, respectively.
Then there is the second pair – John Carlson (19:56) and Michal Kempny
(18:07) – followed by the third pair of Brooks Orpik (11:59) and Christian
Djoos (8:57). The stratification extends
to average shift time. Niskanen and
Orlov are averaging 56 second per shift overall apiece. Then there is the second pair (Carlson at 51
seconds, Kempny at 47 seconds) and the third pair (Orpik at 46 seconds and
Djoos at 34 seconds).
-- Speaking of defense, there might be an as-yet untapped
vein of potential production there.
Through three games, neither Orlov nor Niskanen have a point.
-- The Caps are extending a pleasant team stat into the
first three games of this series. In the
opening round against Columbus, the Caps outscored the Blue Jackets at even
strength, 14-13. Against Pittsburgh in
the second round, the Caps had a 15-9 goals edge over the Penguins. In Round 3 against Tampa Bay, the even
strength goals edge for the Caps over the Lightning was 19-9. Through three games of this series, the Caps
have a 9-7 edge in even strength goals.
-- There is an “all-in” character with this team that shows
up in the “grittership” stats. For
example, 17 of 18 skaters have been credited with blocked shots (Evgeny
Kuznetsov is the lone skater without one).
All 18 skaters have at least one credited hit. Nine of the 18 skaters have a
takeway-to-giveaway ratio of at least 1.00:1.
-- Devante Smith-Pelly scored the big insurance goal in Game
3. It was his first shot on goal of the
series. In fact, he’s scored on his last
two shots on goal. His last shot/goal
came in Game 6 against Tampa Bay on what would be another insurance goal,
bumping a 1-0 lead to 2-0 on the way to a 3-0 Caps win.
-- Balance, balance, balance. Nine Caps share the ten goals scored through
three games (Ovechkin has two). Fourteen
skaters have points, six of them tied for the team lead with three. Seven players have a shooting percentage of
20 percent or better.
-- The goaltending battle between Braden Holtby and
Marc-Andre Fleury is slowly tilting in favor of Holtby. Both he and Fleury had difficult times in
Game 1, Holtby stopping just 28 of 33 shots (.848 save percentage) and Fleury
turning aside 24 of 28 shots (.857). But
where Holtby has stepped up his game considerably in Games 2 and 3 (combined .951
save percentage). Fleury has continued to struggle (.885 combined save
percentage).
-- In fact, Fleury is under .900 in save percentage in all
three games, the first time he has gone three consecutive games under .900
in the postseason since he went three straight games under .900 against the New York Rangers in
their second round series in 2014.
Fleury had gone 40 consecutive playoff games without suffering three in
a row with a save percentage under .900.
Caps fans will be hoping the pattern Fleury followed in that 2014
instance is a case of history repeating itself.
Fleury won the first game in that 2014 string before dropping two in a
row. He lost a third consecutive game
and had a fourth straight game without topping .900 in save percentage,
stopping 18 of 20 shots (.900) in a 2-1 loss that ended the Penguins’ season.
A few overall notes…
-- Last night the Caps played in their 22nd game
of this postseason, surpassing their previous high in games played in a single
postseason, 21 in 1998.
-- The Caps are averaging 3.45 goals per game in this
postseason, their highest goals-per-game in a postseason since 1995 (3.71 per
game in seven games). Their goal differential per game (plus-0.90) is second best for a postseason in team history (1986: plus-1.33 in nine games)
-- Washington’s 27.3 percent power play to date is their
third best in the postseason in franchise history. The 1993 team was 34.6 percent in six games,
and the 2001 club was 31.8 percent in six games.
-- Until this postseason, only John Druce recorded more than
ten goals in a single postseason for the Caps (14 goals in 1990). The Caps have two such players in this
postseason. Alex Ovechkin tied Druce
for the most in a single postseason with his goal to open the scoring in Game
3. Evgeny Kuznetsov’s goal -- the game-winner in Game 3 – was his 12th
of this postseason. Should Ovechkin
score another, he will tie Sidney Crosby for the most in a single postseason
since 2005-2006 (15 in 2009).
-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had the game-winning goal in Game 3,
making him the fifth Capital with two game-winning goals in this
postseason. Nine Caps share the 14
game-winners. That Jay Beagle, Devante
Smith-Pelly, and Brooks Orpik are among those nine skaters says something about
the balance and depth the Caps have had in this postseason.
In the end...
It is "first to four" not "first to two." But getting to two in three games is a lot better than having to win three of the last four games of this series to win it. The Caps are in an enviable position, but that can change in 60 minutes. It puts a premium on putting the Game 3 win in the rear view mirror and focusing on Monday night.
In the end...
It is "first to four" not "first to two." But getting to two in three games is a lot better than having to win three of the last four games of this series to win it. The Caps are in an enviable position, but that can change in 60 minutes. It puts a premium on putting the Game 3 win in the rear view mirror and focusing on Monday night.
Photo: Jim Rogash/Getty Images