The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return to the ice (we hope) on
Wednesday night for the first time since January 19th as the
Philadelphia Flyers come to town in a nationally-televised affair at Verizon
Center.
Not much has changed since the Caps defeated the Columbus
Blue Jackets, 6-3, last week before Winter Storm Jonas came to town and
overstayed his welcome. The Caps had the
best record in the NHL then, and they still have the league’s best record. They led the league in scoring
offense then, and they lead it now. They
were tops in scoring defense then, and they remain so now. Power play…ditto.
Their opponents, the Flyers, have had their own interruption
in play, a game against the New York Islanders scheduled for last Saturday that
was postponed, but otherwise the Flyers have struggled recently. After putting together a four-game winning
streak earlier this month, tying their longest of the season, the Flyers are
1-3-1 in their last five games, their lone win coming at Detroit in a Gimmick
against the Red Wings. The odd part of
that five-game run for the Flyers is that all five games were one-goal
decisions.
Over those last five games, the Flyers have had the same
problem that has plagued them all season – scoring goals. They have just ten in those five games,
entirely consistent with their 29th-place ranking in scoring offense
(2.24 goals/game).
In the “what have you done for us lately” file, there aren’t
many Flyer skaters. Only six Flyers have
goals over their last five games, led by Wayne Simmonds with three. The three goals lifted Simmonds into a tie
for the team lead in goals with Claude Giroux and lifted him a bit out of the
mini-slump in which he found himself. He
has four goals in his last six games after recording just three in his previous
14 contests. Simmonds has been a
remarkably consistent performer in his four-and-a-half seasons since arriving
in Philadelphia from the Los Angeles Kings.
His goals-per-game have clustered between 0.30 (this season so far) and
0.37 (last season); his points have clustered between 0.60 (in 2011-2012, his
first in Philadelphia) and 0.73 (in 2013-2014).
His shots per game range from 2.40 per game (in 2011-2012) to 2.55 (in
2013-2014). And, he has missed only ten
games in his Flyer career. Simmonds is
5-6-11, plus-1, in 21 career games against the Capitals.
Claude Giroux is the player with whom Simmonds is tied in
goals for the Flyers, and he has two tallies in the Flyers’ 1-3-1 slide. For Giroux, it is part of a longer productive
run in which he is 2-6-8, plus-2, over his last eight games. Giroux has been another consistent player in
his own right. Starting in 2011-2012,
when he set career hights in goals (28, since equaled), assists (65), and
points (93), he has been a point-per-game player (108-229-337 in 334
games). He is also making his way up the
Flyers’ all-time lists. A hat trick
against the Caps (perish the thought) would place him in a tie for 16th
in all-time goals for the Flyers (Dave Poulin: 161). His next power play goal would tie Scott
Hartnell for 13th in franchise history (57); his next shorthanded
goal would lift him into the top-20 in Flyers’ history (he has five career
shorthanded goals). He is within 13
points of 500 and would become the 14th player in Flyer history to
reach that mark. In 26 career games
against the Caps, Giroux is 15-13-28, plus-2.
In goal, the Flyers might be a bit thin. Michal Neuvirth was reported to be “limping badly” after the Flyers’ 3-2 loss to the Boston Bruins on Monday night.
That will put the role of backup into question, but it would seem that Neuvirth
injury or not, Steve Mason would get the call in this game (unless he doesn't). Mason’ overall statistics this season are hardly those
for the scrapbook. Of 41 goalies having
logged at least 1,000 minutes this season, Mason is 33rd in
goals-against average (2.72) and 26th in save percentage (.914). He appeared to be piecing together a good
stretch of appearances, but looking at his last five outings his save
percentage has steadily deteriorated. He
started with a 20-save shutout of the New York Islanders on January 9th,
then saw that save percentage slide to .938, .935, .914, and finally .911
(albeit having faced 45 shots) in a 4-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins last
Thursday. Against the Caps, Mason is
7-4-2, 2.83, .904, with two shutouts in 14 career appearances. There was some mystery on Tuesday about his
availability, though (and Neuvirth’s for that matter)...
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Back to Mason for
a moment. If he gets the call, watch his
shots-faced totals. It appears that 30
shots faced is a magic threshold for him this season. In nine appearances in which he faced fewer
than 30 shots, Mason is 6-1-1 (one no-decision), 2.35, .903, with two shutouts.
In 20 appearances when facing more than
30 shots he is 4-11-5, 2.87, .917, with one shutout. The bad news?
The Flyers are allowing the league’s second-most shots per game (32.4).
2. The Flyers do not
do much flying early in games. No team
has fewer first period goals scored than Philadelphia (22). Only Ottawa has a worse first period goal
differential (minus-18) than the Flyers (minus-18).
3. If this is a
one-goal game, it might be the Flyers’ best hope. They are 13-5-8 in one-goal decisions, but
7-13 when the margin is two or more goals.
4. As you might
expect, the Flyers do not work or play well with others. They rank second in the league in penalty
minutes per game (12:24), and they rank third in fighting majors (21), behind
Anaheim and Columbus (each with 27).
Twelve different Flyers have recorded fighting majors this season, led
by Wayne Simmonds with four.
5. The Flyers rank 16th,
right behind the Caps, In Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (50.2). They are a better team, rankings-wise, away
from home. Their 49.9 percent Corsi-for
at 5-on-5 overall ranks 10th, while their close score Corsi-for
ranks 11th (49.6). That
ranking drops when score-adjusted Corsi is considered (15th/49.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. If the Caps earn a
point in this game they will tie a record for fewest losses in regulation
recorded in January. The 1999-2000 team
was 11-1-2-0. A win would make this team
8-1-1 for the month, with two postponed games.
2. Front runners…the
Caps are the only team in the league not to lose a game in regulation when
leading after one period (17-0-0) or when leading after two periods
(26-0-1). Just for good measure, they
are the only team in the league with a .500 record when trailing after two
periods (5-4-1).
3. Those ten
instances in which they trailed after two periods is the lowest total in the
league. The 27 instances in which they led after two periods also leads the league.
4. The Caps have the
league’s best home power play (30.9 percent), but they also have the fewest
power play chances on home ice (68).
5. The Caps will be
looking to improve a home ice statistic in this game. Over their last four games at Verizon Center
they have a Corsi-for percentage of 54.7 overall and 56.9 in close score
situations (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Philadelphia: Shayne Gostisbehere
Rookie defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere packs a lot of
offensive punch in a small frame. At 5’11”,
160 pounds, he is among the smaller defensemen in the league, but he has eight
goals and 12 assists for 20 points in 28 games this season (both numbers lead all rookie defensemen). It was not as if a lot of people saw this
coming. Gostisbehere was not listed on
the 2012 amateur rankings of North American skaters by Central Scouting, and he
managed to climb to just 148th place in the final rankings. He was taken by the Flyers with the 78th
overall pick in the 2012 entry draft, the 26th defenseman taken in
that draft. He is one of just 24
defensemen in that draft to have appeared in an NHL game so far, and he ranks
16th on that list in career games played. He ranks eighth on the list in goals and
ninth in points. Gostisbehere comes into
this game riding a three-game points streak and will be making his first appearance
against the Capitals.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
Alex Ovechkin is on a pace to finish the season with 50
goals, a total that would earn him his sixth Maurice Richard Trophy, if his closest
competitors maintain their respective current paces. That is not unusual; it would be his seventh
50-goal season and his fourth straight Richard Trophy. The unusual part of his season is the power
play, specifically assists. Through 45 games Ovechkin has just three assists on
the power play, putting him on a pace to finish the season with just five. It would be a career low in that statistic,
wiping out the nine-assist season he had last year. He has gone his last 15 games without
recording a power play assist. True, the
power play does not go “through” him as much as is does go “to” him as its
finisher, but the low assist total is unusual even by his standards. Ovechkin is 29-17-46, minus-3, in 38 career
games against the Flyers.
In the end…
Philly does not score much, and they appear to have health
issues in goal. These are not what one
considers features in a winning formula against a team like the Caps that can
score and prevent scoring with equal skill.
Nevertheless, this is always an entertaining contest that hearkens back
to the knock-down, drag-out wars of the 1980’s between these clubs. The Caps dominated the Flyers in the first
(and so far only) meeting of the clubs this season, converting two of three
power plays and holding the Flyers to 20 shots on their way to a 5-2 win in
Philadelphia back in November. There is
little that has happened since to suggest that the gap between these teams has
narrowed.
Capitals 5 – Flyers 2