Some folks might look at last night’s 7-6 overtime loss to
the San Jose Sharks and say, “gee…tough luck,” but the Caps earned their fate,
failing to close out a two-goal lead in the third period. Finishing games weakly has been an issue all
season and might be something deserving fans’ attention in Wednesday’s
game. Meanwhile, the Leafs are stumbling
into the break, losers of four of their last five games and 3-7-0 since they
had a five-game winning streak in late December. Since that ten-game run started on December
29th, that record is the league’s worst.
Offense is an issue.
The good thing about it is balance.
The Leafs have had 14 different players record goals over the last ten
games. The bad thing? Ten of them have only one goal in that
span. One of them happens to be Auston
Matthews. Once upon a time this season,
Matthews was being talked about as the next great goal scorer.
It was understandable. He started the
season scoring goals in each of his first six games (ten overall). And even though he was slowed by a shoulder
injury that kept him out of the lineup for a month from late October to late
November, he had 16 goals in the first 16 games in which he played this season. Since then, however he has only four goals in
18 games and that lone goal in his last ten contests. It matters.
In 34 games played this season, Toronto is 11-2-0 when Matthews scores a
goal, 9-10-2 in the 22 games he played and did not score a goal. He has only one goal at home in the last nine
games he played at Scotiabank Arena .
Matthews is 2-4-6, plus-1, in six career games against Washington.
Another player whose offense has dried up in this ten-game
slide is defenseman Morgan Rielly. His
start to the season mirrored that of Matthews in terms of points. He had points in each of his first six games
this season (3-10-13), and he maintained that frenetic scoring pace well into
the season, going 13-31-44 in his first 37 games this season. Those 44 points led all defensemen by a wide
margin going into the Christmas break (Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot had 37 points). But then, after the break, Rielly suffered a
three-game streak without a point, his first pointless streak of that length
this season. He has only four assists on
his ledger over his last 11 games and has been shut out in goals on a total of
29 shots over that span. Rielly is
1-7-8, minus-3, in 16 career games against the Caps.
Frederik Andersen was having a nice start to his season in
goal. In his first 30 appearances,
through December 22nd, he was tied for the league lead in wins (20,
with Marc-Andre Fleury), eighth in goals against average among 44 goalies with
at least 750 minutes (2.50), seventh in save percentage (.923), and had a
shutout. However, December 22nd
was the last he would play for a while, sitting out eight games with a groin
injury. He returned to the lineup on
January 14th against Colorado, but he has not yet discovered that
early season rhythm. In three
appearances since his return he is 1-2-0, 3.04, .913.
Pace is important for Andersen, at least so far this
season. A hectic pace. In 14 games in which he faced more than 35
shots, he is 11-3-0, 2.21, .942. In 19
appearances in which he faced fewer than 35 shots, he is 10-8-1, 2.75, .901,
with one shutout. The Caps might do well
to try to put Andersen to sleep, if he gets the nod. In six career appearances against the
Capitals, he is 4-1-1, 2.72, .912, with two shutouts, the Caps being the only
team in the league against which he has recorded more than one shutout.
1. Toronto not only
has the worst record in the league since December 29th, they are
tied for 29th in goals scored, 30th in shots on goal,
last in power play goals (one), last in
power play chances (18), and last in power play efficiency (5.5 percent). This might be the most surprising and
unexpected turn in the league at this point of the season, Toronto’s offense
disappearing over the last three weeks.
2. Give the Leafs
credit, they are entertaining. Or
not. In 48 games this season they have
played in games settled by margins of three or more goals. They are 10-9 in those games.
3. On the other hand,
Toronto does not play in very many close games.
Only 11 times in 48 games have they played to a one-goal decision, going
6-3-2. Only three teams have fewer
one-goal wins (St. Louis, New Jersey, and Colorado), and only four have fewer
one-goal losses in regulation (Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Carolina, and Tampa Bay).
4. It is best to
score first against Toronto. Only two
teams have more wins than the Maple Leafs (22) when scoring first – Nashville
and Calgary have 23 apiece. They’re .786
winning percentage in such games (22-5-1) is fourth-best in the league.
5. There is one area
in which the Leafs are strong where the Caps have been weak – finishing games
strong. Toronto has a 63-48 goal
differential (plus-15) in the third periods and overtimes of games this season.
1. The Caps have
allowed 50 goals over their last 12 games.
That is as many goals as they allowed in the 21 previous games.
2. Washington has
allowed 15 goals in their last two road games.
In their previous eight road contests they allowed only 18 goals and had
two shutouts. But even there, the
writing was on the wall. In two of those
games they allowed five goals, which brings us to…
3. The Caps have
allowed five or more goals in five of their last 12 road games.
4. Four times in
their last 12 games, the Caps allowed opponents 40 or more shots. Only five times have they had 30 or more of
their own.
5. The overtime loss
to San Jose was the third straight time that the Caps lost in extra time (all
in the overtime period).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: Patrick Marleau
Is there any more “under-the-radar” player over the last 20
seasons than Patrick Marleau? Yes, 20
seasons. Well, 21 actually. Marleau, who entered the NHL the same season
that the Caps appeared in their first Stanley Cup final (1997-1998) is among
the active leaders in:
- Career games played (1,623/1st)
- Goals (546/2nd)
- Assists (605/5th)
- Points (1,151/4th)
- Even strength goals (361/2nd)
- Shorthanded goals (17/T-8th)
- Game-winning goals (106/1st)
- Shots on goal (4,090/2nd)
Almost as amazing is his uncommon durability. In 21 NHL seasons, Marleau has never missed
more than eight games in a single season, and he has appeared in 80 or more
games 14 times. He appeared in every
regular season game 11 times, including the abbreviated 48-game season in 2013. The last time he missed a game was in the 2008-2009 season, when he missed five games to a lower-body injury late in the season.
He brings a 754-game streak into this game, second among active players (Keith
Yandle: 763). However, he, like a lot of
his teammates, has been in a scoring slump lately. The goal and assist he posted in a 4-2 win
over Tampa Bay last Thursday are his only points in his last 12 games. Marleau is 9-14-23, plus-6, in 31 career
games against the Capitals.
Washington: The Fans
When a team goes on an extended losing streak, their fans
get impatient, and memories are set aside.
Over the course of an 82-game season, a team earns its record, good or
bad. However, there is a difference
between being in a slump and being bad.
But between the two there might be a gray area where effort, focus, and
attention lie. And it is here where the
Caps are coming up short, characterized by taking shortcuts and displaying lack of commitment to the things that made them successful last season.
Fans might be a bit too quick to call for trading this guy, or sending that guy
down to Hershey, bringing that other guy up, or (the go-to-solution for fans)
making a coaching change. But the Caps
stand squarely in that gray area at the moment, and they have less than half a
season to figure out if they are a good team that was merely in a slump or a
team whose expiration date has passed.
In the end…
Good teams that are focused play to the final horn. Last night the Caps were a good team without
focus. There has been a lot of that in
the last month. Good teams that are
focused play hard to the break in the schedule.
We’ll find out where the Caps stand on that matter on Wednesday night.
Capitals 3 – Maple Leafs 2