The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals are in the midst of their first true
crisis of the season and look to end the troubles when they return home to face
the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday night. Ten
days ago, this game had the promise of featuring two teams at the top of their
respective conferences and perhaps favorites to reach the Stanley Cup
final. When they take the ice on
Tuesday, both teams will have found themselves coming back to the pack in the
standings and just two among what are now many who could credibly be thought of
as Stanley Cup final contenders.
The Caps have lost four in a row in regulation, the first
time that has happened since Games 8-11 early in the 2014-2015 season, and they
are 5-6-1 since coming back from their league-sanctioned in-season vacation. Meanwhile, the Wild have lost three of four
and are 4-4-0 in eight games since their own six-day break. For both teams, their respective conference
leads have fallen to one point, the Caps one point over Pittsburgh (pending
Monday night’s results), and Minnesota is one point ahead of Chicago.
Minnesota’s offense in their 4-4-0 slide has been an all-or-nothing
affair. Three times in those eight games
they scored five or more goals (all wins), and three times they scored one or
no goals (all losses). Overall, they
have 25 goals in those eight games, and Eric Staal has five of them to lead the
team. For Staal, Minnesota seems to have
rejuvenated his career. After three
seasons that saw his point production drop each season, the last of which was
split between the Carolina Hurricanes where he played 12 seasons) and the New
York Rangers, Staal is on a pace to finish with more goals (27) than he had in
any season since 2010-2011 (33), more assists (37) than he had since 2013-2014
(40), and more points (64) than he had since any season since 2011-2012 (70).
And when he scores a goal, the Wild win.
They are 16-1-0 in games in which he has a goal this season. Staal also has the odd quality, perhaps more
common among veterans, of being more productive on the road this season
(11-17-28, plus-5, in 34 games) than he has been at home (11-13-24, plus-4, in
33 games). Staal is 27-44-71, plus-5, in
72 career games against the Caps.
Mikael Granlund leads the team in total points since their
break (4-4-8). Not surprising, given
that he is the team’s leading scorer this season (23-40-63). It has been a career year for the five-year
veteran, setting career-highs in goals (he had 13 last season), assists (he had
33 in 2013-2014), and points (he had 44 points last year). What he has found this season is a shooter’s
touch. Coming into this season he had 31
career goals on 399 shots (7.8 percent).
And although he did improve from year to year in each of his first four
seasons, he made quite a leap this year.
With 23 goals on 148 shots, his 15.5 shooting percentage is 13th
in the league among players with at least 125 shots on goal. And when he’s active, so seem the Wild. In games in which he recorded four or more
shots on goal, the Wild are 10-2-0.
Granlund is 2-3-5, plus-1, in six career games against the Caps.
Devan Dubnyk might be on a short list of Vezina Trophy
contenders as the league’s top goalie, but it did not make him immune to what
happened on Sunday against the Chicago Blackhawks. After getting the win in 20 minutes of relief
of Darcy Kuemper in a 7-4 win over Florida last Friday, Dubnyk got the start
against the Blackhawks on Sunday. He
lasted less than five minutes. Two shot,
two Chicago goals, and Dubnyk got the hood from head coach Bruce Boudreau 4:38
into the contest. No, it was not the
shortest time on ice of any goalie in any game in Wild history, but he couldsee it from there. Still, Dubnyk leads the league’s goalies in
wins (36, tied with Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky), is third in goals against
average (2.07), is second in save percentage (.931), is tied for fifth in
shutouts, and is sixth in minutes (3,103).
If Dubnyk gets the call in this game and wins, it will set a new career
high in wins. It will not be easy, based
on his history. Dubnyk is 2-3-0, 3.24,
.891 in five career appearances against the Caps.
1. The Wild have had
the better of the underlying numbers since their break, sporting a 54.06 SAT
percentage in their eight games since the hiatus (numbers from NHL.com) and a
54.5 percent in shots on goal for/shots on goal against. The problem is in efficiency. The Wild are shooting at 8.8 percent in those
games, while their opponents are shooting at 10.5 percent.
2. Special teams have
been uneven for the Wild since their break, their power play barely registering
at 2-for-23 (8.8 percent) and 0-for-their-last-9 over four games (those
opportunities are infrequent, too). On
the other side, the penalty kill is 19-for-21 (90.5 percent) and hasn’t faced
more than three shorthanded situations in their last five games (12 in all).
3. One might think
that a team as high in the standings as the Wild would be adept at locking down
wins when leading late in games, but they have left some points on the table
when leading after two periods. They
rank 15th in winning percentage (.848) when leading after 40 minutes
(28-3-2).
4. Minnesota is tied
for the league lead in goals scored at 5-on-5 (154, tied with Pittsburgh). Four-on-four is a different story. The Wild scored one goal in that situation
this season.
5. The Wild have the
third-best penalty differential at 5-on-5 in the league (plus-31, tied with
Philadelphia; go figure). Only Detroit
(plus-41) and Pittsburgh (plus-33) are better (numbers from Corsica.hockey).
1. Since February 1st,
434 skaters in the NHL have an even strength goal. Alex Ovechkin is not one of them.
2. No Capital has as
many as ten points in 12 games since the February break. Nicklas Backstrom (4-4-8) and Evgeny
Kuznetsov (3-5-8) lead the team in points.
3. Since the February
break, which Capital leads the team in scoring the first goal of the game? If you said Jakub Vrana and Tom Wilson (twice
apiece), buy a lottery ticket.
4. The Capitals do
not have a penalty shot attempt this season.
5. Washington no
longer has the worst penalty differential at 5-on-5, but they’re in the same
zip code. Their minus-35 is better that
only the Colorado Avalanche (minus-40).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Minnesota: Martin Hanzal
Being strong down the middle is generally thought to be a
prerequisite to success in the NHL, and the Minnesota Wild tried to improve on
their center depth with the acquisition of Martin Hanzal from the Arizona
Coyotes at the trading deadline. Much
like the Caps’ acquisition of defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trading
deadline, obtaining Hanzal served, if nothing else, the purpose of keeping him away from other contenders.
What Hanzal is, is a solid half-point-per-game player who brings size (6/’6”,
225) and an ability to play defense. He
has had a bit of a time finding his stride in Minnesota, though. In seven games since joining the Wild he has
yet to record a goal (four assists) and is a minus-2. Even faceoffs, a solid part of his game (over
54 percent in each of the last five seasons, including his time with Arizona
this year), are underwhelming so far (47.3 percent). He does get a wide range of responsibilities,
being one of four Wild forwards averaging more than one minute of ice time per
game on both power plays and penalty kills since his arrival. However, he did miss Sunday’s game against
Chicago with an illness and is listed as day-to-day. Hanzal is 1-3-4, plus-1, in seven career
games against Washington.
Washington: T.J. Oshie
Part of the problem with the Caps since their February break
has been injuries. T.J. Oshie, for
instance, has appeared in just eight of 12 games since the break, and while his
production in those games (3-5-8, tied for second in goals and tied for fourth
in points on the club) is roughly in line with his production before the break,
he, like much of the team, seems about five degrees off center. He is a minus-2 since the break (he was
plus-25 before it) and has six penalty minutes in eight games (he had 26 in 47
games before the break). The odd part of
his post-break performance is that in three games in which he has goals, the
Caps lost two of them, the only two times this season the Caps lost games in
regulation when he scored a goal (19-2-1).
This could be a game for Oshie to break out. In his last 14 home games he is 9-8-17,
plus-14. He has four goals in his last
four home contests. Oshie is 7-10-17,
plus-3, in 23 career games against Minnesota.
In the end…
This game is, at this point, less a potential preview of a
Stanley Cup final and more a study in which team can right itself quicker from
their break. Both clubs have seen their
momentum before their respective breaks slammed to a halt and are at risk of
falling from the top spot in their conference standings (for the Caps, that
might be true by the time puck drops on this game). How these teams got into their predicaments
are a little bit different. The Wild
have been uncharacteristically leaky on defense (2.78 goals allowed per game
since their break), while the Caps have lost their compass in finding the back
of the net (2.17 goals per game). It is
a game of the moveable object meeting the resistible force.
Capitals 3 – Wild 2