Having posted the prognosto on the first round series
between the Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs, what lies in store for the other three Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series?
We have an Original Six matchup, an Atlantic affair, and a neighbors-who-hate-one-another contest. And this is just the first round.
Montreal Canadiens (47-26-9) vs.
New York Rangers (48-28-6)
New York Rangers (48-28-6)
Two teams with more than 1,200 Stanley Cup playoff games
between them, this will be the 16th time in their respective histories that the
Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers meet in the postseason. The Rangers
hold an 8-7 lead in all-time series, the difference being their 4-2 win in
games in the 2014 Eastern Conference finals. This season, the Canadiens swept
the three-game season series.
Canadiens: In the last ten games of the season, Montreal
faced one playoff-eligible team (a 3-1 win over the Ottawa Senators). They were 6-2-2 in those ten games, but it
doesn’t seem as impressive as it looks, given the quality of competition. Nevertheless, they did hold eight of the ten
opponents to two or fewer goals. On the
other hand, two of those efforts were authored by Charlie Lindgren in his only
two appearances this season for the Habs.
Carey Price had another Vezina-finalist quality season (37-20-5, 2.23,
.923, with three shutouts), and given that the Canadiens finished just 15th
in scoring offense (seventh among the eight teams in the Eastern half of the
playoff bracket), he’s going to have to keep up that level of performance. His job is made harder with a series of
injuries to defensemen that have them on a day-to-day watch, including Shea
Weber.
Rangers: New York could test Price in goal. The third-best scoring offense among the
Eastern Conference playoff teams, they did stumble a bit down the stretch,
averaging 2.67 goals per game over their last 15 contests (more than a third of
a goal per game under their season average).
It is a team that struggled over the last 15 games, going 5-6-4 and
failing to win consecutive games at any point along the way. Their problem is that they are a
comparatively poor possession team, especially when compared to the
Canadiens. In that sense, the pressure
will lie in a similar spot to that of Montreal – their goaltender. Henrik Lundqvist is not coming into the
postseason on a hot streak. In his last
eight appearances he is 2-4-2, 3.35, .898.
In the end… This is likely to be a close series, but not one
of aesthetic grandeur. If Montreal was
in full health on the back line for this series, we’d say a combination of
Montreal’s better possession numbers and Lundqvist’s recent off-play would make
for a six-game series. But given the
uncertainty on the Canadiens’ back end in terms of health, we’re thinking…
Montreal
in 7.
*****
Ottawa Senators (44-28-10) vs.
Boston Bruins (44-31-7)
Boston Bruins (44-31-7)
The Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins do not have nearly as
much history as do the Canadiens and Rangers.
In fact, this will be the first postseason meeting between the
clubs. The Senators are making an
appearance in the postseason after sitting out last season’s dance, while the
Bruins are appearing in the playoffs after spending the last two seasons on the
sidelines. The Senators swept the four-game season series.
Senators: The Senators can be considered overachievers, if
you look at their ranking in individual statistical categories. They have a lot of rankings in the 20’s, yet
they finished with 44 wins and tied for fifth in wins on the road. Ottawa does not have a 30-goal scorer and
have only Erik Karlsson with more than 65 points. Worse, they have just four games in their
last 15 contests in which they scored more than two goals and only once more
than three. Pair that with having
allowed four or more goals four of their last seven games to close the regular season,
and this is not a club on a pace to reach the second round. Craig Anderson had a fine year in the face of
considerable personal issues he and his wife had to deal with, and he closed
the regular season with a 0.65 goals against average and a .972 save percentage
with one shutout in his last three appearances to close the regular
season. But it is hard to think he could
maintain that level of play, or even raise his game to another level over a
seven-game series, given the shortcomings with which the club was negotiating
over the final stretch of the season.
Bruins: Best possession team in the league, best combined special
teams. So why did they finish back in
the pack? Because frankly, they don’t
have a lot of depth in terms of skill.
Brad Marchand (39 goals) and David Pastrnak (34) can fill the net, but
things drop off quickly and by quite a bit after that. Boston is a team that uses possession, not to
place their skilled pieces on the chessboard to get them into the best places
to score, but to grind out wins in a workmanlike fashion. They would be most successful when they are
most boring (Marchand’s proclivities for hijinks outside the rules
notwithstanding). It leaves a rather
thin margin for goalie Tuukka Rask, who despite a 1.65 goals against average,
.936 save percentage, and five shutouts over 34 playoff games the last two
seasons, has a win-loss record of 21-13.
It’s a record that could be better with more support
In the end… Ottawa
was once a team that would try to skate opponents into the ground with speed
and skill. This team is not that
one. They will try to annoy opponents to
death. Boston, on the other hand, “plays”
the game better than their results would indicate. It could make for a uniquely unappealing
series to watch, except for purists. The
Bruins are just better in more categories that matter...
Bruins in 6.
*****
Pittsburgh Penguins (50-21-11) vs.
Columbus Blue Jackets
(50-24-8)
A series of a team with a winning tradition in recent years
against one trying to find that formula.
The Pttsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets present a stark
contrast in style. The Penguins are a
skilled team with two of the best, of not the best centers on the planet. On the other side, the Blue Jackets are more
egalitarian in terms of the distribution of skill and rely on a hard work ethic
to generate success. Both teams were 2-1-1 in the season series. Chalk one up for extra-time hockey.
Penguins: It is possible that no team has done more with
less in terms of health in the modern era of hockey than this year’s version of
the Penguins. They managed second in the
league in wins and points despite injuries over the course of the year that
left them with one player finishing the season playing all 82 games (Phil
Kessel). They had just six players
finish with 75 games played and only 10 regulars missing fewer than 20 games. It made for an odd year of reversals in which
Sidney Crosby, the planet’s best playmaker, led the team and the league in
goals (44), while Phil Kessel, usually thought of more as a finisher, led the
team in assists (47). Crosby tends to
dwarf anyone around him in terms of attention, and the injuries were a
continuing drama. That made it easier
for Matt Murray to hide a very nice season in goal (fifth in save percentage,
11th in goals against average among 35 goalies with at least 2,000
minutes played; four shutouts).
Blue Jackets: A “jack-of-all-trades” is said to be one who
does a lot of things well, none of them in an extraordinary fashion. Often it is a bit of an insult. It could be used to describe the Blue
Jackets, and not as an insult. They did
falter at the end of the regular season (3-6-2 in their last 11 games), but
they still finished in the upper half of the rankings in every meaningful
statistical category and top-ten in many of them (scoring offense and defense,
penalty kill, adjusted Corsi-for percentage). Columbus had 12 players with ten
or more goals, 14 with 20 or more points.
They had four players with 20 or more power play points. “Balance” is their strong point on
offense. On the back end, Sergei
Bobrovsky is a lock to be a Vezina Trophy finalist, if not the outright
favorite to win it. Only 12 games in 59
in which he recorded at least 50 minutes of ice time this season did he have a
save percentage under .900. At the other
end, he had 16 such games in which he had a save percentage of .970 or
better. What he needs, though is playoff
success. In his sparse postseason
experience to date (13 games), he is 2-6-0, 3.49, .890.
In the end… This might be the most competitive of the four
opening round series in the East. And, it will be a
battle of the irresistible force in the Penguins meeting the immovable object
in the form of the Blue Jackets. Timing
would seem to favor Columbus in this series.
Yes, they enter the playoffs in a slump, but over the course of the
season were a better possession team than the Penguins and put together long
stretches of top-end play. Pittsburgh
could get some of their wounded back, but they might not be in as playoff-ready
shape as they would hope. They compound this with being a sub-par possession club. If they escape
the Blue Jackets, it could make things difficult for their opponents down the
road. Unfortunately for them, however, that road ends in
Pittsburgh in a deciding game…
Columbus in 7.
