The Peerless
Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
If it’s a
weekend, the Washington Capitals must be playing back-to-back games. For the
second straight weekend and the third one this month, the Caps get a set of
back-to-back games, starting with a visit from the Edmonton Oilers on Friday
night.
Washington will
be looking to extend its home winning streak to 13 games and its points streak
to 15 contests. They will also be looking to extend their streak of home wins
scoring five or more goals to 12 consecutive games, which would break a tie
with the 1970-1971 Boston Bruins for the most such consecutive games in NHL
history.
It will not be as
easy as it seems, given the opponent, for these are not your older brother’s
defense-challenged Oilers, not even last year’s 27th-ranked scoring defense.
This year’s edition of the Oilers has shaved almost a half goal per game off
their goals allowed total, from 2.95 per game last season to 2.54 this year,
ranked 7th in the league.
Edmonton comes to
Verizon Center with a 5-2-0 record over their last seven games, outscoring
opponents by a 20-18 margin (not including the shootout goal they scored in a
1-0 win over Montreal to start this run).Connor McDavid, as you might expect,
has had his fingerprints all over the score sheet in those seven games with a
hand in eight of the 20 goals (2-6-8). In his two seasons in the league, only
Patrick Kane (1.17) and Sidney Crosby (1.14) have more points per game than
McDavid (1.09). Only Erik Karlsson (0.77) has more assists than McDavid (0.75).
If he continues to score at the pace he has so far this season, he could finish
the year trailing only Sidney Crosby among active players who scored at least
140 points in their first two seasons without having reached their 21st
birthday (Crosby had 222 points in his first two seasons; McDavid is on a pace
for 139). In two career games against the Caps, he is 1-3-4, minus-1).
While McDavid
leads the team in points over this recent 5-2-0 run, he doesn’t lead the club
in goals. That honor is held, surprisingly enough, by defenseman Oscar Klefbom,
who has three (3-3-6). The fourth-year player from Karlstad, Sweden, has already
set career highs in goals (11) and points (26), and he is just three assists
shy of tying his career best in assists (18). What he has done to ramp up his
offensive production is increase his shot frequency – a lot. Two seasons ago he
recorded a career high 98 shots on goal in 60 games. Through 61 games this
season he already has 156 shots on goal. Only five defensemen in the league
have more shots on goal, and of that group, only Brent Burns (27 goals on 242
shots) has more goals than Klefbom (11 goals on 156 shots). What Klefbom does
not have is a career goal against the Caps. He is 0-2-2, minus-4, in four
career games against Washington.
There is a
familiar face among those posting good offensive numbers over the last seven
games for the Oilers. Center Mark Letestu (1-4-5 in the last seven games) spent
parts of his first three seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins before moving on
to Columbus and then to Edmonton last season. He has carved out a niche for
himself as a reliable contributor as a bottom-six forward. In seven full NHL
seasons he recorded double digits in goals and assists in six, and at least 25
points in each of them (including this season with 11-17-28), except for the
2014-2015 season (7-6-13) in which he was limited to 54 games by a groin
injury. Letestu is 2-2-4, minus-3, in 13 career games against the Caps.
1. This is the first time in ten years that the
Oilers have an average under 30 shots allowed per game (29.9). They had 29.7
shots allowed per game in 2006-2007. It is the only season since the 2004-2005
lockout that they have averaged more than 30 shots on goal per game (31.0; they
averaged 29.8 shots on goal per game in 2005-2006).
2. This is the first season since the 2004-2005
lockout that the Oilers’ power play on the road is over 20 percent (22.8).
Their 2011-2012 team was at 19.5 percent.
3. On the other side of special teams on the
road, this is the second-worst squad in road penalty killing (78.7 percent).
Only the 2010-2011 team was worse (73.4 percent).
4. On the good side of penalty killing, they
don’t have to do it much. Their 9:24 in penalty minutes per game this season is
the second lowest since the 2004-2005 lockout. The 2014-2015 team averaged 8:15
in penalty time.
5. Edmonton is a decent, though not great
possession team. Adjusted for score, zone, and venue (by Corsica.hockey), their
59.75 Corsi-for at 5-on-5 is 12th in the league.
1. Comparing the Caps on the basis of their post-2004-2005 lockout team numbers, this team has the second-lowest shots allowed per game (28.0). The 2007-2008 team allowed 27.5 shots per game.
2. Only two teams in this period have had better
home penalty killing than this year’s team (85.1 percent). The 2010-2011 team
(86.0 percent) and last year’s team (87.3 percent) were better.
3. This is the least-penalized team in the
current era for the Caps (8:48 average penalty minutes per game). Last year’s
team averaged 9:10 in penalty minutes per game.
4. Even though this club is on a pace to match
the franchise record in wins (56, set last season), it isn’t as adept at
winning when scoring first as you might thing. The 2016-2017 Caps have the
third-best winning percentage when scoring first (.810) in this era. The
2014-2015 team (.860) and last year’s team (.895) were better.
5. The Caps have the fourth-lowest shot attempts
per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on home ice (52.94; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
The Peerless’
Players to Ponder
Edmonton: Cam
Talbot
One could argue
that the Edmonton Oilers have been looking for decent (not elite, just decent)
goaltending since the 2004-2005 lockout. Until this season, 21 goalies recorded
a season with at least 1,000 minute for the Oilers. Of that group, Dwayne
Roloson had the best goals against average in a season (2.43 in 2005-2006),
Devan Dubnyk had the best save percentage (.920 in 2012-2013), and Roloson and
Mathieu Garon had the most shutouts in a season (four – Roloson in 2006-2007
and Garon in 2007-2008). So far this season, Cam Talbot has topped them all in
3,200 minutes of ice time – a 2.36 GAA, a .921 save percentage, and five
shutouts. Unsurprisingly, he also tops all of them in wins, too, with 31. It is
quite an improvement on Talbot’s first season in Edmonton after arriving in
trade in June 2015 from the New York Rangers (21-27-5, 2.55, .917, three
shutouts). And he seems to thrive on volume, too. In 20 games in which he faced
30 or more shots he has a record of 15-1-4, all four extra time losses coming
in the Gimmick. He is 2-2-0, 2.25, .927 in five career appearances against the
Caps.
Washington:
Dmitry Orlov
With Matt
Niskanen – one of the team’s two right-handed defensemen – injured and on
day-to-day status, the question becomes who will take over responsibility for
manning the team’s second unit power play from the top of the offensive zone?
Dmitry Orlov logged 1:47 in power play time in the 4-1 win over the
Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday night from which Niskanen departed. Orlov does
get a surprising amount of power play ice time as it is (averaging 1:24 in
power play ice time so far this season, the most he has averaged in any of his
five seasons). He also has six power play points this season (1-5-6) more than
his total in his previous four seasons (0-5-5). How he performs is not going to
be the determinant in whether the Caps can keep up their blistering pace of the
last two months, but a good effort in Niskanen’s absence won’t hurt. Orlov is
1-0-1, minus-3, in three career games against Edmonton.
In the end…
Edmonton is the
kind of team that can expose a team’s weaknesses if left to run a game at a
pace of their choosing, which is to say, “up-tempo.” Being smart with the puck,
especially at both blue lines, preventing quick transitions, forcing Edmonton
to play a harder 200-foot game can grind them down. You know, the stuff a
veteran team like the Caps should be able to manage. And hey, why not a new record, too?
Capitals 5 –
Oilers 2