The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals, fresh off their 1-0 loss to the New
Jersey Devils on Friday night, head on the road to The Gateway of the West, St.
Louis, to meet the Blues in a battle of teams near the top of their respective
games. The Caps, even with the loss, are
3-1-0 in their last four games and have allowed only eight goals in the process. Meanwhile, the Blues are winners of nine of
their last ten games, a 2-1 loss to the Nashville Predators that broke a
seven-game winning streak last Saturday the only blemish on that record.
On offense, the formula has been simple for the Blues in
their 9-1-0 run – everybody feed Tarasenko.
Vladimir Tarasenko has nine of the Blues’ 30 goals in their last ten
games. The third-year forward, taken 16th
overall in the 2010 entry draft, has shown himself to be a goal scorer from the
start. In his rookie season of 2012-2013
he averaged 0.21 goals per game. That
number jumped to 0.33 goals per game last season, and through 16 games this
season he is averaging 0.63 goals per game.
His ten goals in 16 games is tied with Toronto’s Phil Kessel for fifth
in the league. And, like a fellow
Russian known well to Caps fans, he is not shy about shooting the puck. His 63 shots on goal is tied for fourth in
the league with San Jose’s Logan Couture, ten shots behind league leader Alex
Ovechkin (through Thursday’s games). He
is without a point in his only appearance against the Caps to date.
The other side of the equation is who is providing the
helpers. The defense has contributed
only two goals to the 30-goal total over the Blues’ last ten games (Carl
Gunnarsson and Jay Bouwmeester doing the honors). But five defensemen have recorded to total of
19 assists in this run of good fortune.
Kevin Shattenkirk has contributed eight of those helpers. Shattenkirk has been a prolific point
producer from the blue line, by modern standards, averaging 45 points per 82
games over his four-year career coming into this season. He has ramped that up significantly so
far. With 14 points in 16 games he is on
a pace for 72 points.
At the other end, the Blues have had solid goaltending. The shots allowed have not been remarkable,
but Brian Elliott and Jake Allen have allowed only 19 goals on 286 shots over
the last ten games, a .934 save percentage.
Both goalies have been stingy this season. Neither Elliott, in ten appearances this
season, nor Allen, in six games, has allowed more than three goals. Allen pitched shutouts in back-to-back
appearances against Anaheim and New Jersey on October 20th and
November 4th. He has been a
bit leaky otherwise, though, allowing ten goals on 89 shots in his other four
appearances (.888 save percentage).
Elliott has allowed two or fewer goals in six of his ten appearances and
has a save percentage of .939 in his last four appearances, three of them
wins. Elliott is 4-2-0, 3.50, .871 in
eight career appearances against Washington, while Allen is 3-1-0, 2.26, .908
in four appearances against the Caps.
Here is how the teams compare in their numbers through
Thursday night’s games:
1. St. Louis has
allowed 13 goals – total – in 640 minutes of first and second periods of games
so far this season. Only Minnesota has
allowed fewer first period goals (7) than the Blues (8), and no team has
allowed fewer second period goals than St. Louis (5).
2. Only five teams
have scored fewer 5-on-5 goals than St. Louis (26). On the other hand, only Florida (Florida??)
has allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 (16) than the Blues (18).
3. If you score
against the Blues’ goalies at even strength, keep the puck.. Brian Elliott has
the best even-strength save percentage (.950) among goalies appearing in at
least five games. Jake Allen is sixth
(.944).
4. Score first, and
you have a chance. No team has more wins
than the Blues when scoring first (8).
They are only 3-3-1 when allowing the first goal.
5. For a team that
has the capacity to stifle a team, the Blues are not highly ranked in hits (24th)
or blocked shots (tied for 21st).
They are, however, on the good side of 50 percent in possession numbers –
52.58 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (ranked sixth).
1. The Caps are
developing decent scoring balance. Seven
different players have at least ten points through 16 games.
2. Last year, 9-7-0 after
16 games for 18 points. This year, 7-6-3
for 17 points. Hey, they only won nine
of their first 16 games in 2009-2010, when they finished with 121 points, so
there is that.
3. Only Buffalo has
won fewer games (none) when trailing first in games than the Caps (1).
4. The Caps are
wasting a lot of good efforts at holding shots down. They are just 5-5-3 when outshooting their
opponents.
5. Numbers at 5-on-5…Corsi-for
percentage: 51.74 (rank: 10th); PDO: 99.41 (rank: 21st). You would think something has to give (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
St. Louis: Jori Lehtera
With all the attention being paid to Vladimir Tarasenko,
Jori Lehtera is flying under the radar.
Don’t be deceived. In the Blues’
9-1-0 run he is 5-8-13 and had a hat trick in the Blues’ 6-1 win over Buffalo
on Veterans Day. A third round draft pick (65th overall) in the 2008
entry draft, Lehtera is something of a late bloomer, although that might be a
product of his spending his entire career since the draft playing in Europe before
this season, except for seven games with the Peoria Rivermen of the AHL in
2008-2009. At 26, he does not qualify as
a rookie, although he would be second in points if he did (6-10-16). This will be his first appearance against the
Capitals.
Washington: Braden
Holtby
Does Barry Trotz put Braden Holtby back on the horse after
his mistake led to the New Jersey Devils’ 1-0 win over Washington on Friday
night? He might just select Holtby
because he has been playing well lately, his giveaway to Mike Cammalleri for
the Devils’ game-winning goal notwithstanding.
In his last four appearances he has a save percentage of .947
(89-for-94) after finishing four games in five with a save percentage under
.900. He has had success in limited
opportunities against the Blues (2-0-0, 1.00, .974 in two appearances).
In the end…
The Caps beat the Blues twice last season, each by a 4-1
margin. The Caps are 5-1-1 in their last
seven meetings against the Blues, so it is not as if the Caps find themselves
at an insurmountable disadvantage. This
will be the fourth back-to-back set of games the Caps have played in 17 games
this season, though. Even early in the
season, before the grind sets it, that can’t be easy. Still, there was enough to take away from the
New Jersey game of a good nature, especially in the way the Caps battled the
Devils in an ugly game, to suggest that the Caps will continue their good
fortune against the Blues.
Capitals 3 – Blues 2