For the Washington Capitals Week 24 was the calm before the
storm, serving as prelude for eight games over the final two weeks to close the
regular season. There were only two
games on the schedule, both against elite teams who are on the short list of
contenders for the Stanley Cup. There
were not many games on the docket this week, but both were a yardstick with
which to measure whether this Capitals team is playoff ready.
Record: 0-1-1
The Capitals are picking a really bad time to hang up weekly
records under .500. Week 24 was their
third such week in their last four over which they have put together a
cumulative record of 5-5-3. Fortunately,
if you are rooting for the Caps to make the post-season, Washington lost just
one-point in standings ground this week to the teams in the wild card slots. Going into
the week the Caps had 79 points, one behind both Toronto and Detroit. At week’s end the Caps had 80 points, two
points behind the two teams in front of them for a wild card spot, Columbus and
Detroit.
The difficulty in Week 24 for the Caps was going winless at
home. Where the Caps were next to
invincible at Verizon Center once upon a time, they have struggled lately and
especially against those teams that can rightly be called “benchmarks.” The Caps have now lost to Los Angeles and
Boston (in Week 24), to Pittsburgh, and to Philadelphia at home since the
Olympic break. They have taken care of
business against teams that are struggling, as the Caps are – Phoenix,
Vancouver, Toronto. However, the Caps
have home contests against Chicago and Tampa Bay to close the season. Those teams are not "struggling." Based on recent history, made worse with the
Week 24 results, home cooking might not have the taste it once did for this
team.
Offense: 3.00/game (season: 2.77 / rank: 13th)
The offense had a distinct Russian cast to it in Week
24. Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov
each recorded a pair of goals, those for Kuznetsov being both last-minute-in-regulation
goals and his first goals in the NHL. On
the other hand, Ovechkin’s pair inched him closer to 50 this season, which
might end up being the biggest milestone the Caps as a whole or in their
individual parts might reach this season.
Ovechkin (2-1-3) and Troy Brouwer (0-3-3) led the team in points.
In one sense the Caps overachieved in this area. Los Angeles (2.07 goals against/game) and
Boston (2.04) rank second and first, respectively, in scoring defense. The Caps outscored the Kings’ average and
matched that of Boston. On the other
side of the coin, the Caps got out to a two-goal lead against the Kings – twice –
and could not add to it. They fell
behind the Bruins by a pair of goals and could not make up the difference. Two goal leads seem especially dangerous to
the Caps, at least in Week 24.
Defense: 4.00/game (season: 2.88 / rank: 22nd)
Los Angeles and Boston are among the league leaders in shots
on goal per game, ranked seventh and fifth, respectively. It showed this week. Both recorded 36 shots on goal, oddly enough
the second and third straight games in which the Caps allowed precisely 36
shots on goal. It was the latest in a
drift toward an old problem – shots on goal allowed. Since holding Pittsburgh to 20 shots on goal
on March 10th (and losing anyway, 3-2) the Caps have allowed an
average of 35.6 shots per game. That the
Caps are 4-2-2 in those eight games (and 0-1-1 in Week 24, for that matter) is
not a product of the defense.
There was a considerable unevenness among those Caps who
happened to be on ice when goals were scored. Jason Chimera and Patrick Wey had
difficult weeks. They were on ice for
five goals against of the eight scored.
Four other Caps were on ice for three goals scored against and six
others for two goals against. Four Caps
missed out on the fun. Dustin Penner,
Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Chris Brown were not on ice for any of the
eight goals scored against the Caps this week.
The possession numbers paint a bleak picture at 5-on-5
tied. First, the Caps spent not a lot of
time in that situation, less than 23 minutes for the week. That was a reflection of getting out to two
two-goal leads against the Kings (ultimately blowing that advantage in what
would be a Gimmick loss) and falling behind by three goals twice against
Boston. In those few minutes when tied
at 5-on-5 the Caps Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages were 28.6 and 27.3,
respectively. It was only two games worth
of data, but it did not look good, anyway.
Goaltending: 3.88 / .889 (season: 2.77 / .917 / 3 SO)
Goaltending was not particularly sharp this week, especially
as games went on. On the other hand,
from the “glass half full” perspective, goaltending kept the Caps in games
early. Jaroslav Halak and Braden Holtby
split the duties and each was perfect in the first period of their respective
games, Halak stopping all seven shots he faced against Los Angeles, Holtby
stopping all 15 shots he saw from the Bruins.
Neither could sustain that level of effort, though. Halak allowed four goals on 26 shots over the
last two regulation periods against Los Angeles, while Holtby allowed four goals
on 22 shots in the last two periods against Boston.
In that sense it was a step back for the Caps. In the six games following that 20 shots
against, 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh on March 11, Caps goalies had a save percentage
of .947. In Week 24 it was .889. Shot volumes might be dealt with for a while,
but against teams like Los Angeles or Boston it can come back to bite them,
too.
Power Play: 2-7 / 28.6 percent (season: 23.8 percent / rank:
1st)
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times for the
power play this week. Okay, that’s a bit over the top, but when the Caps go
2-for-4 in one game and 0-for-3 in the other, it is not too far off. What makes such things so confounding is that
Boston and Los Angeles were roughly equivalent in their penalty killing going
into their respective games, the Kings at 83.3 percent, the Bruins at 83.8
percent. The Caps had approximately the
same shots per minute on the power plays for the week, 1.13 against Los
Angeles, 1.33 against Boston. The difference
was not the what, or even the how many, but the who. Against Los Angeles, Alex Ovechkin scored two
power play goals on four of the six shots recorded by the Caps on the man
advantage. Against Boston he was 0-for-2
on the eight shots the Caps directed at goalie Chad Johnson.
Penalty Killing: 4-7 / 57.1 percent (season: 81.0 percent /
rank: 20th)
The problem with a team that has been rather mediocre on the
penalty kill all season, yet has a stretch of success is that it comes back to
earth, sometimes with a thud. The Caps
came into the week having killed off all 19 shorthanded situations they faced
over their previous six games. That came
to an end three minutes into the second period of their 5-4 shootout loss to
Los Angeles. The Caps allowed power play
goals on three of their last six shorthanded situations faced for the
week. It was a case of either an
inability to prevent sustained pressure or too much passivity. The Kings and Bruins combined for three power
play goals on 18 shots in 12:22 of power play time. That kind of high shot volume makes it
unsurprising that the Caps struggled on the penalty kill in Week 24.
Even Strength Goals Scored For/Against: 3-5 (season 5-on-5
GF/GA ratio: 0.88 / rank:T-23nd)
Washington has the lowest ratio of even-strength goals to
total goals in the league, so it is not that surprising that the Caps would
record only three even strength goals for the week. Then again, that might be the biggest problem
this team has, competing at evens. Week
24 was the fourth straight week in which the Caps finished on the minus side at
even strength. It hardly seems like
coincidence that the Caps also have losing records in three of those four
weeks. Making it worse on the scoring
side can be summed up with three names: Dustin Penner, Jason Chimera, and
Evgeny Kuznetsov. Two grinders and a
rookie scored the even strength goals for the week. No Ovechkin, no Backstrom, no Johansson, no
Green, no Carlson, no Brouwer. Not good.
Faceoffs: 59-for-128 / 46.1 percent (season: 48.7 percent /
rank: 23rd)
Once more the overall numbers do not tell the complete story
in the circles. The Caps had a fine week
in the neutral zone, going 24-for-43 (55.8 percent), but they were just
16-for-41 in the offensive end (39.0 percent) and 19-for-44 in the defensive
end (43.2 percent). It is the fifth
straight week in which the Caps finished the week below 50 percent overall.
One thing about the first line experiment with Jay Beagle at
center was impacted by performance here.
Beagle was 0-for-5 on offensive zone draws, part of a 4-for-21 week
(19.0 percent). On the good side, Eric
Fehr and Nicklas Backstrom took the highest volume of draws and did well. Fehr was 18-for-31 overall (58.1 percent),
including 8-for-12 in the defensive zone (66.7 percent). Backstrom was 16-for-27 overall (59.3
percent), including 7-for-9 in the offensive end (77.8 percent).
Goals Scored For/Against by Period:
The Kings and Bruins are similar teams, the sort that use
depth and a physical edge to grind teams down.
The goals by period certainly reflect that. The Caps did not allow a first period goal
this week, but they were whacked for four goals in each of the last two
periods, and the Caps had a three goals allowed period in each game. Los Angeles scored three goals in the third
period to force extra time before winning in the freestyle competition, while
Boston scored three in the second period of Saturday’s game to all but end the
competitive portion of the afternoon.
In the End…
The Caps have not been in the top-eight in the Eastern
Conference since January 17th when they were in eighth place at
22-18-8. Since then the Caps are 12-10-4
and have generally hung around ninth or tenth place. Close enough to be teasing, but never quite
getting over the hump. The Caps had an
opportunity in Week 24 to jump over a couple of teams to take one of those
coveted wild card spots, but the combination of few games and tough opponents
left them with one standings point and still in ninth place when eight teams
get to dance in the post season. In that
sense, Week 24 was a disappointment, both for a cold slap in the face of the
reality of their standing compared to teams such as Los Angeles and Boston, and
again for lingering on the edge of the playoffs without the ability to take
that last step.