The Washington Capitals held home ice advantage with two
wins at Capital One Arena to open their first round series against the Carolina
Hurricanes. Carolina then did their part
to force the Caps to try to maintain that advantage by winning two games on home
ice at PNC Arena. So, the Caps still
have the edge, right? The cousins aren’t
so sure.
Peerless: Let’s get
to the big question. Who has the edge in
what is now a best-of-three series?
Cheerless: Dang if
sports doesn’t have some of the goofiest sayings. One you hear everywhere in a series like this
is “a playoff series doesn’t start until the home team loses.” That one’s been around for more than 30 years
(Thanks, Google).
Well, that’s crap. Andrei Svechnikov,
Jordan Martinook, Micheal Ferland, and T.J. Oshie would say the series started
(and ended for at least one of them).
Then there is the “you dance with who brung ya” line. Well, the Caps were brung here…
Fearless: That’s “brought,” cousin.”
Cheerless: …was BRUNG here by seven 20 goal scorers. Three
of them – Jakub Vrana, Brett Connolly, and Evgeny Kuznetsov – don’t yet have a
goal. Tom Wilson and Oshie each have
one. The Caps are averaging 2.25 goals
per game. Only three teams have a worse
scoring offense, and two of them – Tampa Bay (2.00) and Pittsburgh (1.50) are
playing golf. After scoring three goals
in 18:05 to open the series, the Caps have six in their last 223:48, one of
them an empty-netter. They have six
goals on their last 91 shots in that 223:48.
It is not so much that Carolina “has” an edge as much as that the Caps
are not playing “with” an edge. The
results look like the product of the sort of effort one might see on a Tuesday
night in January, not the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Fearless: No team has
fewer shots on goal in the playoffs than the Caps (100). Only twice in 12 regulation periods of hockey
have the Caps recorded more than 10 shots in a period. Only Pittsburgh and Calgary have fewer 5-on-5
goals (four and three, respectively) than the Caps (five). Only Pittsburgh has
fewer third period goals (one) than the Caps (two). No team has fewer second period goals than
the Caps (one, tied with the New York Islanders). The Caps are minus-73 in 5-on-5 shot attempt
differential, worst in the league by a couple of zip codes (Calgary is
minus-47). And, it is a product of
attempts. Washington has only 129 shot
attempts of their own, last and 21 fewer than Columbus in as many games. The good news… it has to get better. This team is too good, too deep to continue
playing like this, right? …right?
Peerless: The injury
to T.J. Oshie could be season-ending.
First, should it be a suspendable offense for Warrren Foegele? Second, just how big is it?
Fearless: Yes, it should be suspendable. There are three parts to this. One is the act. Foegele trailed Oshie across the ice and
cross checked him in the back ten feet from the side boards, propelling Oshie
head first into the boards. Oshie was
attempting to take possession of a loose puck and could not see Foegele behind
him. He had no opportunity to brace for
the hit, not being able to see Foegele and thus know when it was coming. He was not close enough to the wall to be
able to brace against it as the hit was delivered. It was a textbook example of a player in a
vulnerable position being taken advantage of.
Two, there is the result. This is
likely a series-ending, season-ending injury for Oshie. This generally has some weight in the league’s
deliberations. Third, and for Foegele
the mitigating factor, there is the history as a repeat offender. Foegele is not generally thought of as a
dirty player. He had 20 minutes in
penalties 77 regular season games, all the product of minor penalties. The standard here is the suspension handed
down to Nazem Kadri, who was suspended for the remainder of the first round
after his hit on Jake DeBrusk in retaliation for deBrusk’s clean hit on Patrick
Marleau in Game 2 of the Toronto-Boston series.
The league’s explanation of that hit focused on several factors – that it
was not accidental or incidental (e.g., his stick riding up DeBrusk’s), it was
retaliatory, and Kadri has an “extensive disciplinary track record
Foegele’s hit on Oshie was not of the deliberate sort Kadri’s seemed to be. It was not retaliatory, and he does not have an extensive disciplinary track record. So, for Caps fans thinking he should have the book thrown at him, that’s not going to happen. However, it was reckless, it caused serious injury to the player in the context of his further availability, and it is an opportunity for the league to send a message about hits such as these being unacceptable, even in an intense playoff environment. Foegele should be suspended, but if he is, it will not be for the duration of this series. Well, that is unless the Caps win Games 5 and 6. We’re thinking he could get two games.(UPDATE: Foegele will have neither a hearing, nor supplemental discipline applied).
Foegele’s hit on Oshie was not of the deliberate sort Kadri’s seemed to be. It was not retaliatory, and he does not have an extensive disciplinary track record. So, for Caps fans thinking he should have the book thrown at him, that’s not going to happen. However, it was reckless, it caused serious injury to the player in the context of his further availability, and it is an opportunity for the league to send a message about hits such as these being unacceptable, even in an intense playoff environment. Foegele should be suspended, but if he is, it will not be for the duration of this series. Well, that is unless the Caps win Games 5 and 6. We’re thinking he could get two games.(UPDATE: Foegele will have neither a hearing, nor supplemental discipline applied).
As for how big? This
is an instance in which it is as much as who steps up as it is who is
lost. Oshie is a heart and soul kind of
guy, and that is hard to replace.
Perhaps the team will rally around him in his absence. The nuts and bolts consideration is who steps
up to provide Oshie’s production. Brett
Connolly immediately comes to mind as the first player to step up a line. He, being a right winger, had production
similar to Oshie on a per-minute basis.
The Caps do have some options here, though. If they do not want to break up the third
line of Connolly-Lars Eller-Carl Hagelin, they could take a chance on Andre
Burakovsky, who has been getting fourth line minutes. He would be playing his off wing, but he has
played some on the right side in the past.
If the Caps wanted to go way off the page, they could promote Devante
Smith-Pelly from Hershey (which seems a real possibility anyway...UPDATE; DSP has been recalled). Since he was sent down, DSP is 6-8-14, plus-2,
in 20 regular season games, although he had only one goal and two assists in
his last 12 games. For the Caps, someone
is going to have to rise above their comfort level to replace Oshie, and the
player who replaces that player is going to have to contribute.
Cheerless: What Fearless said…
Peerless: We’re back to it.
Game 5…at home. In the Rock the
Red era of Caps hockey, Washington hosted 11 Games 5 through the 2016-2017
season. They won eight of them. The problem is that the Caps lost four of
those series. Last season, the Caps had
two Games 5 on home ice, won both, and won both series, closing out the series
against Columbus and Pittsburgh in the next game, played on the road. The question is, which Caps team is going to
show up? The one that couldn’t close out
a series with consistency, even with a Game 5 win, prior to last season, or
last year’s team that won Game 5 at home and then closed out the series
smartly?
Cheerless: The Caps have won five straight Games 5 on home ice and eight of their last nine (they won the series in which they lost Game
5, in 2016 against Philadelphia). That
after going 5-12 in Games 5 in their first 17 Games 5 in postseason history. Looking at those five straight wins, three
times the Caps won that Game 5 after losses in Games 4. This has been a tough and resilient bunch in
this part of the playoffs lately.
Fearless: There is a “who”
element that cannot be overlooked here.
Look at those last five Games 5 on home ice. In those games, the Caps scored 19
goals. Who led them? Oshie (four).
He’s gone. But who is next? Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom with
three apiece. Backstrom has contributed
in this series against Carolina to date.
Kuznetsov hardly at all. There
will be a spotlight on him. Another
player who is going to have to show up here is Tom Wilson, but the good thing
here might be in his weak baseline. He
does not have a goal in any of the four Games 5 on home ice in which he played
among the five most recent ones played by the Caps. Any contribution he might make could fill in
for what is missing in Oshie’s absence.
Boiled down, in the last five Games 5 at home, the stars played like stars – Oshie with four goals, Kuznetsov and Backstrom with three apiece, Ovechkin with two. They have to be heard from. But others are going to have to step up, and that is where the other 20 goal scorers – Wilson, Vrana, Connolly – have to contribute. The other part of this is at the other end. Braden Holtby has been the goalie in each of the last five Games 5 on home ice for the Caps. He is 5-0, 1.92, .937 in those contests. Whether Holtby plays to this level or at the level he played in the regular season (2.82, .911), which is pretty much where he is in the playoffs (3.00, .905) is going to go a long way toward whether the Caps can put themselves in a position to clinch the series in Game 6.
Boiled down, in the last five Games 5 at home, the stars played like stars – Oshie with four goals, Kuznetsov and Backstrom with three apiece, Ovechkin with two. They have to be heard from. But others are going to have to step up, and that is where the other 20 goal scorers – Wilson, Vrana, Connolly – have to contribute. The other part of this is at the other end. Braden Holtby has been the goalie in each of the last five Games 5 on home ice for the Caps. He is 5-0, 1.92, .937 in those contests. Whether Holtby plays to this level or at the level he played in the regular season (2.82, .911), which is pretty much where he is in the playoffs (3.00, .905) is going to go a long way toward whether the Caps can put themselves in a position to clinch the series in Game 6.
In the end…
The Caps have had uneven and inconsistent efforts in this
series so far, both at a team and an individual level. But except for the 5-0 blowout in Game 3,
they have not been dominated by the Hurricanes (their shot differentials
notwithstanding, but that has been a feature all season). The Caps will miss T.J. Oshie, both in terms
of the intensity he brings to the ice and his production. The former cannot be duplicated if other players
do not possess that effervescent trait, but others can – and have to – step up
to provide the production. And that is
going to have to come from players who have not yet been heard from in this
series. That will be the difference
between going back to Carolina in a position to clinch the series or going there with
their status as defending champions on the line.