The Washington Capitals wrestled home ice advantage back
from the Toronto Maple Leafs in their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series on
Wednesday night with a 5-4 win in Game 4 in Toronto. It sets up a contest on the battlefield that
has been the strategic focal point throughout the postseason history of the
Capitals franchise – Game 5. Let’s see
what the cousins have to say about the game just completed and the one looming
on the near horizon.
Fearless… It was not as much the five goals the Caps scored
against the Maple Leafs in Toronto last night, it was the “who” got them. A first liner got two (T.J. Oshie), a
promoted third liner got two (Tom Wilson), and of course, the primariest
primary scorer of them all got one (Alex Ovechkin). Ten different players shared in the points –
six forwards (five goals, four assists), four defensemen (four assists). And about those defensemen, four of the six
had a point. Matt Niskanen and John
Carlson did not record a point, but Carlson was a plus-3 (best on the club). It might have been the most balanced offensive
effort of the series for the Caps.
Cheerless… Two games, two times the Caps scored two goals
before the game was five minutes old.
Two two-goal leads. In fact, the
Caps have had five two-goal leads in the last two games – 2-0 and 3-1 in Game 3;
2-0, 3-1 (which became 4-1), and 5-3 in Game 4.
They lost Game 3 in overtime and escaped by the skin of their teeth from
another overtime in Game 4. Here is a
number you might not want to look directly at…in the last two games, the Caps
were out-shot in the third period by a combined 28-9.
*****
Cheerless… Alex Ovechkin had 16:31 in ice time in Game
4. That was almost 90 seconds more than
he had in Game 3 (15:08), but it is the first time in 88 career playoff games
that Ovechkin skated consecutive games with less than 17 minutes of ice
time. And there he was in the third
period last night, getting just seven shifts in the third period (none in the
last 4:33) and 4:51 in ice time. Is this
the Caps being cautious to a fault in the third period, trying to hold onto a
two-goal lead? Would they be better
served by trying to plant the dagger in the Maple Leafs?
Feerless… Caution hasn’t been all bad. Only three teams have allowed fewer third
period goals than the Caps (two), and it perhaps no coincidence that Nashville
and St. Louis hold commanding leads in their series, while the third team –
Anaheim – completed their sweep of Calgary on Wednesday night. I’m frankly more concerned with those first
and second periods, in which the Caps have allowed five goals in each, blunting
the momentum they have established early.
No team has more first period goals than the Caps in this postseason
(seven), but Toronto is sitting right there with the third-highest first period
goal total (five). When the Caps get a
lead, they need to do a much better job of standing on Toronto’s collective
throat and not letting them off the floor and back into the game.
*****
Feerless… One of the things that has perhaps not gotten
enough attention is the contribution from the blueline in this series. Six of the seven defensemen to dress so far
for the Caps have points, three of them having recorded two points. It might not sound like much, but in 12 games
last postseason, the Caps had six of eight defensemen record points, but only
three with at least two points. And, if
you look at the seven defensemen to have dressed, specifically the “seventh”
slot, which has been split between Karl Alzner (no points in the first two
games) and Nate Schmidt (a point in each of the last two games), the Caps are
getting, at the moment, balanced contributions from the defense.
Cheerless… It says something that three defensemen have at
least ten shots on goal in four games. But
among John Carlson (15 shots), Dmitry Orlov (10), and Kevin Shattenkirk (17),
they have one goal. Getting shots to the
net is a good thing – it creates the chance for rebounds, at the very
least. And what’s up with Brooks Orpik
and Shattenkirk? Minus-5 and
minus-4. Hurt? Let’s just hope it’s a slump. It happens to defenders, too.
*****
Cheerless… Caps fans always seem to have a sense of doom
about them. This shows itself in
different ways in different postseasons.
This year it’s “the Leafs are getting all the bounces!” There is a perception that more than a usual
share of Leafs’ goals are being scored by deflections or the fortuitous (like
that word, cuz?) bounce that leaves a puck right at the feet of an Auston
Matthews or a Tyler Bozak with an open net in front of them.
Fearless… One of comforts of Corsi as an indicator over time
is that it reflects the climate of a series.
Sure, a team might get a lucky bounce, a gork, a dribbler with eyes
(Cheerless…cuz, stop doing your Crash Davis thing), but over the longer haul,
the team that plays better is the team that will have more success. It’s like the difference between weather and
climate. You’ll have hot days and cold
days, dry days and wet days. That’s how
the weather changes, but over time, the trend moves generally in one direction –
climate change. Same here.
Some days you get the bounce; others the other guy gets it. You might even see a couple or three games in
a row where the other guy gets all the breaks, and you can’t buy one. But over time, the team that “plays” better
does better. And right now, through four
games, the Caps are fifth in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.33 percent). Not that there isn’t room for improvement,
since the Caps actually trail Toronto in adjusted Corsi-for, the Leafs seventh
overall (50.73 percent) and the Caps tenth (49.27 percent). If the Caps can press the advantage they have
been securing early in games, they could finally break this team.
*****
Fearless… For all the unfortunate history of the Capitals in
the postseason and the outsized importance of Game 5, this Caps team is in barely
explored territory going into Game 5.
This is just the second time since the 2004-2005 lockout that the Caps
will take the ice in Game 5 after tying a series at two games apiece with a win
on the road. They beat the New York
Islanders in overtime of Game 4, 2-1, to tie their series, 2-2, before winning
Game 5 by a 5-1 margin. They went back
to Long Island and lost Game 6, 3-1, but they prevailed in Game 7 on home ice
in a 2-1 nail-biter to advance to the second round. So, if you are looking for history to guide
you here, there isn’t much to go on.
Cheerless… Game 5 on home ice. You’d think it matters. Well, you wouldn’t be right. You wouldn’t be wrong, either. It just does not seem to matter all that
much. Since 2008, when the Caps returned
to the playoffs for the first time since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Caps have
hosted a Game 5 nine times. They are 6-3
in those games. OK, well did the wins in
games lead to wins in series? Not
consistently. In the six Games 5 that
they won, the Caps went on to win the series three times, losing the series
three times. The odd thing is, they’ve
alternated series wins and losses after Game 5 wins. If they win Game 5 on Friday night, the arrow
points this year to a series win after they lost their series against
Pittsburgh in Game 6 last spring after winning Game 5. As for the losses, the Caps lost two of the
three series in which they suffered a Game 5 loss. The exception was last season, when the Caps
beat the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 6 in Philly after losing Game 5 on home
ice. If you are giving a lot of weight
to the result of Game 5, win or lose, don’t.
*****
Peerless… Through four games you have teams that are mirror
images of one another. One team has
learned how to take advantage (the Caps) but hasn’t figured out a way to finish
off their opponent decisively. On the other
hand, Toronto has allowed the Caps to do pretty much as they please early in
games, especially the last two, but not so much that they can’t hang around and
make the Caps nervous and dominate late.
The series has become almost all about Washington at this
point. Can they win a decisive Game
5? Can they close out the Leafs? Can they actually make use of home-ice
advantage? They’ve faced similar
questions in the recent past, and the answers have not been pleasant. Consider Game 5 another chance for this team
to prove that it is different – in a good way – from those Caps teams that
preceded it.
