The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their short two-game home
stand on Sunday afternoon against the Anaheim Ducks with a chance to extend
their current winning streak to eight games, their longest since a nine-game
streak from December 31, 2016 through January 15, 2017. Over this seven-game winning streak to date, the
Caps have outscored opponents by a 30-16 margin.
The Caps will be hosting a team on a bit of a roll of its
own. Anaheim has won five of its last
six contests, falling only to the Predators in Nashville last Sunday. In those six games the Ducks outscored their
opponents, 16-13, four of the wins coming by one goal, two of them in overtime.
Nick Ritchie is a surprise as the leading goal scorer for
the Ducks in their 5-1-0 run. His four
goals doubles that of any other skater, four of whom have a pair. Ritchie has not given any persistent signs to
date that he will grow into a reliably productive goal scorer. In two full
seasons coming into this year, Ritchie totaled 24 goals in 153 games. The four he has in this recent run are his
only four of the season to date. He has
dressed for only 13 games so far this season, missing nine games to start the
season due to visa issues, and missing another six games to an upper body
injury before returning to the lineup on November 9th. He comes into this game with points in six of
his last eight games (4-4-8). Ritchie is
2-0-2, plus-1, in five career games against the Caps.
As the calendar flipped to December, no team played more
games than the Ducks (28). Only one
defenseman appeared in all of them – Brandon Montour. Montour, in his second full season and third
overall with Anaheim, leads all Duck defensemen in assists (10) and points
(12). The former second-round draft pick
of the Ducks (55th overall in 2014) has displayed some promise as an
offensive defenseman. His nine goals in
80 games last season was second to Hampus Lindholm (13) among Duck defensemen,
while his 32 points tied Cam Fowler for second among the blueliners behind Josh
Manson (37). He started this season
slowly, going 1-2-3, minu-5, in his first 14 games. Over his last 14 games, though, Montour is
1-8-9, minus-2. Montour is without a
point in four career games against the Caps and is minus-1.
It has not taken long for goaltender John Gibson to
establish himself among the best puck-stoppers in the game. In his six seasons in the league spanning 200
games, Gibson has the third best goals against average (2.31) and best save
percentage (.924) of 59 goalies appearing in at least 100 games. Only once in those six seasons did he post a
goals against average over 2.50 (2.60 in 2014-2015) and only once posted a save
percentage under .920 (.914 in 2014-2015).
He has taken on a steadily greater workload, from three games in a brief
2013-2014 stint to 21 games the following season, followed by 40 games, 52
games, and finally 60 games last season, tied for eighth-most in the
league. Gibson has started 22 of the
Ducks’ 28 games to date this season. If
Gibson has lagged a bit in goals against average so far this season (2.47), it
might be because he has faced the league’s second highest number of shots on
goal (751). His save percentage (.929)
ranks fifth among 42 goalies appearing in at least ten games. Gibson is 1-2-2, 2.77, .913, with one shutout
in five career appearances against Washington.
1. This will be a
team trying to overcome an opponent’s strength in recent games with a decided
weakness. While the Caps have killed 22 of 23 shorthanded situations in their
seven-game winning streak, the Ducks have the 23rd ranked road power
play and are only 3-for-19 overall (15.8 percent) in winning five of their last
six games.
2. No team in the league
has an average shot differential as bad as Anaheim’s minus-9.3 shots per game
(26.5 for; 35.8 against).
3. Only the Vancouver
Canucks have committed more penalties (120) than Anaheim (113).
4. Anaheim ranks
second in the league in blocked shots (439), trailing only Ottawa (478).
5. Anaheim has only
three wins this season when outshooting opponents, tied for the third fewest
such wins in the league. A lot of that
is a product of the Ducks outshooting opponents only seven times in 28 games.
1. That nine game
streak to end 2016 and begin 2017 for the Capitals featured four shutouts over
the last six wins of the streak. Braden
Holtby shutout the Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, and Chicago
Blackhawks, while Philipp Grubauer blanked the Philadelphia Flyers in what
would be the last game of the winning streak.
2. That winning
streak was not the end of the Caps’ points streak. They dropped a wild 8-7 overtime decision to
the Pittsburgh Penguins to end the winning streak, but they then won three more
in a row. When added to the 2-1 Gimmick
loss to the New Jersey Devils in the game before the winning streak started, it
made for a 14-game points streak (12-0-2).
It was part of a larger amazing run in the 2016-2017 season in which the
Caps went 26-4-5 over a 35-game stretch from December 3rd through
February 18th.
3. Washington won ten
games in November (10-4-1) tying a franchise high for wins in November
(1985-1986 and 2010-2011).
4. The Caps have a
plus-12 goal differential in the second period of games this season (37 for/25
against) but are only even in first periods (24 goals for and against) and
third periods (25 for and against) of games.
5. Only the New York
Islanders have fewer faceoff wins at even strength (536) than the Caps (566).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Anaheim: Adam Henrique
When the Anaheim Ducks traded for Adam Henrique in November 2017,
they might have been anticipating obtaining from the New Jersey Devils a player
about to embark on the prime goal-scoring years of his career. After posting 27 goals in 117 games over
parts of three seasons to open his career, Henrique averaged almost 23 goals a
season over his next four years, hitting the 30-goal mark in 2015-2016. However, he had only four goals in 24 games
last season when he was traded to the Ducks with Joseph Blandini and New
Jersey's 3rd round pick in 2018 entry draft for Sami Vatanen and a conditional third
round pick in 2019 or 2020 NHL Draft. He
did step up his goal scoring after heading west last season, netting 30 goals
in 57 games. He has fallen back a bit so
far this season with six goals in 28 contests going into Sunday’s game. What he does have is respectable point
production in recent games, recording a point in seven of his last eight games
(2-5-7). Henrique is 6-5-11, minus-13,
in 25 career games against Washington.
Washington: Andre Burakovsky
Andre Burakovsky had a sluggish start to the 2018-2019
season, but he is giving hints that he might be breaking out of those early
season doldrums. He is 2-1-3, plus-1,
with eight shots on goal after posting only two goals and two assists with 23
shots on goal over his first 20 games. Oddly
enough, the four goals he has in 25 games this season matches the total he had
in his first 25 games last season. In a
way, that’s the good news. In the “glass-half-empty”
category, Burakovsky still has to demonstrate he has the durability that makes
a player dependable (remember, he missed 44 games the previous two seasons) and
he was stuck on 12 goals in each of the last two seasons before this one. His skills profile suggests he is capable of
much more. His engagement, even if it
does not result in goals or points, matters, at least early. For example, in 10 games in which he recorded
at least two shots on goal, the Caps are 8-2-0, while they are 7-5-3 in the 15
games in which he recorded one or no shots on goal. Burakovsky is 3-0-3, plus-2, in five career
games against Anaheim.
In the end…
Anaheim has not scored more than three goals in a road game
since they beat the Sharks in San Jose, 5-2, in their first road game of the
season. On the other side, the Ducks
have allowed four or more goals in four of their last seven contests on the
road. They do have wins in their last three
road contests, so the Caps cannot just show up for a win. But the Ducks are not a particularly strong
road team this season, either. The Caps
have been an opportunistic team on their seven-game winning streak, whether
getting fine goaltending from Braden Holtby (5-0-0, 1.49, .957 on this streak)
or goal scoring from a variety of players (seven from Alex Ovechkin, six from
Tom Wilson, and five from Nicklas Backstrom, including his second career hat
trick against New Jersey on Friday). The
Caps can – and should – have enough weapons to dispatch the Ducks to close the
home stand, even with the fine recent play of goalie John Gibson.
Capitals 3 – Ducks 2