The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take to the road this week on their annual California trip, visiting Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose over the next five days, a trip that could have considerable influence on the standings in two divisions – the Metropolitan, where only three points separate the first-place Capitals and the third-place Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday morning, and in the Pacific Division, where only two points separate the three teams the Caps will play this week.
The Washington Capitals take to the road this week on their annual California trip, visiting Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose over the next five days, a trip that could have considerable influence on the standings in two divisions – the Metropolitan, where only three points separate the first-place Capitals and the third-place Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday morning, and in the Pacific Division, where only two points separate the three teams the Caps will play this week.
The Caps will visit the Anaheim Ducks to open this three
game trip, hoping to extend a winning streak to a third game for the first time
since they beat the Carolina Hurricanes on January 2nd in the third
straight of what would be a five-game winning streak. It will be a challenge. When the Ducks beat the Chicago Blackhawks,
6-3, on Sunday night, it brought their record over their last dozen games to
8-2-2.
The Ducks’ success in their last dozen games has been more a
product of defense, having allowed more than two goals in regulation time only
twice – a 6-5 Gimmick loss to Edmonton on February 25th and last
night’s win over Chicago. One might
think that would reflect well on a goaltender, but both Ducks goalies have fine
numbers over those dozen games. John
Gibson started eight of those games and is 6-1-1, 1.93, .942 in that span. Gibson has established himself as one of
those goalies with fine numbers that not a lot of folks know about. At the moment, he has a career best .925 save
percentage this season, fifth-best in the league among 35 goalies with at least
1,500 minutes played. It is the third
consecutive season in which Gibson has posted save percentages of .920 or
better. And, he has been consistent.
Over his last 20 appearances, Gibson has not had consecutive games in
which his save percentage was under .920.
In four career appearances against the Caps, he is 0-2-2, 3.45, .888.
Gibson’s backup has played well, too, and he is much more
familiar to Caps fans. Ryan Miller might
be on the back nine of his career, now in its 15th NHL season, but
he has provided strong support on those occasions when Gibson needs a
break. Over the Ducks’ last dozen games,
Miller is 2-1-1, 2.05, .948, with one shutout, a 41-save gem against the Dallas
Stars on February 21st.
Overall, his .925 save percentage in 23 games is his best since he
posted a .929 save percentage in 69 games with the Buffalo Sabres in 2009-2010,
a season in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goalie. Miller is 17-14-0, 2.54, .916, with three
shutouts in 32 career appearances against the Caps.
The Ducks have not been especially prolific in the offensive
end lately, scoring 34 goals in the 8-2-2- run (2.83 per game). Rickard Rakell has six of those goals to lead
the club. It is no surprise, since
Rakell leads – and by a substantial margin – the team in goals scored this
season (27, ten more than Ondrej Kase).
Rakell can score goals in bunches.
He has four multi-goal games this season, including a hat trick in the
6-5 trick shot loss to Edmonton on February 25th. Rakell’s recent production gives him a total
of 26 goals this season and puts him on a pace to challenge his career best in
goals scored (33) set last season. In
six career games against Washington, he is 1-0-1, minus-2.
Anaheim gets good production from its back line, four
defensemen with more than 20 points this season, all of them with at least five
goals scored. Hampus Lindholm leads the
group with nine goals. He has developed
nicely for the Ducks since he was taken with the sixth overall pick in the 2012
entry draft. After a rookie season in 2013-2014
which he went 6-24-30, plus-29, and finished seventh in the Calder Trophy
voting for top rookie, he posted a career best 34 points the following season. He slipped under 30 points the last two
seasons, but his nine goals so far this year are just one short of his career
best (10 in 2015-2016). He had done it
by being efficient. Nine goals on 100
shots – 9.0 percent – is tied for first with New Jersey’s Damon Severson (also
with nine goals on 100 shots) among 72 defensemen with at least 100 shots this
season. He has been particularly
effective against the Caps, going 2-6-8, plus-9, in nine career games against
Washington.
1. No team has been
in the freestyle competition more than Anaheim this season. So far, 11 of their 66 games have been
decided in the shootout. It should not
be surprising (if not pleasant for Ducks fans) that no team has lost as often
in the trick shot phase, the Ducks having seven losses. Their problem is two-fold. They don’t shoot well (13-for-50/26.0
percent/ranked 23rd in shooting percentage), and they don’t stop
shots well (34-for-52/.654 save percentage/ranked 21st). Three of their last seven home games have
been decided in the Gimmick (1-2 record).
2. Anaheim ranks
fourth in the league in penalty minutes per game (10:37), and no team has been
whistled for more total penalties (295) or more minor penalties (258).
3. One thing Anaheim
does not do is out-shoot opponents. They
have done so only 19 times in 66 games, and even when they do, their record
lacks accomplishment (8-9-2).
4. Another thing the
Ducks don’t do is lose one-goal games in regulation. They only have three one-goal losses in
60-minute games this season. Only the
Boston Bruins have fewer (two, one of them to the Caps). However, they can be caught in
regulation. Six of their 12 losses in
extra time came in games in which they led at the second intermission.
5. Anaheim suffers a
similar problem as do the Capitals in that they are not a very efficient
possession team. Their shot attempts-for
at 5-on-5 percentage (48.29) ranks 22nd in the league, 24th
when ahead in games (44.60; numbers from NHL.com).
1. The Caps have
played 23 games against Western Conference teams so far this season to a 12-9-2
record. They have been out-shot by
exactly 100 shots (754-654). They will
be looking to improve their record against Pacific Division teams on this trip
over their current .500 mark based on standings points earned/available (6-6-1).
2. Only Columbus,
among Metropolitan Division teams, has a worse power play against Western
Conference teams (10.0 percent) than the Caps (15.4 percent). The Caps have the worst power play against
the Pacific Division in the league (3-for-35/8.6 percent).
3. One of the
problems with the power play against the West might be not having the puck, at
least to begin power plays or after play stops.
The Caps are the only Metro team whose faceoff percentage on power plays
is under 50 percent (56-for-119/47.1 percent).
4. Among Metro teams,
the Caps have averaged more penalty minutes per game (10.9) than any other, a
product of their taking more major penalties (eight) than any Metro team
against the West (New York Rangers: 5).
Quite an accomplishment, considering the Caps have played fewer games
against the West than any other Metro team except Columbus (23 as well).
5. Four of 13 games
played by the Caps against the Pacific Division this season have gone to extra
time. The Caps are the only Metro team
to record two overtime goals against Pacific Division teams. One came against Anaheim in the Caps’ 3-2 win
at Capital One Arena on December 16th.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Anaheim: Cam Fowler
There have been 113 defensemen to dress for the Anaheim
Ducks since they came into the league in 1993-1994 as the Mighty Ducks of
Anaheim. Only Ruslan Salei (594) and
Francois Beauchemin (577) have appeared in more games as a Duck than Cam Fowler
(548). Fowler has been among the more
consistent offensive defensemen in the NHL since he was taken by the Ducks with
the tenth overall pick in the 2010 entry draft.
In six full seasons with the club before this year (not including the
abbreviated 2012-2013 season), Fowler never finished with fewer than 28 points,
and that came in a 69-game season (2015-2016) in which he missed 13 games to a
sprained knee. He ranks third all-time
in goals for the franchise (53) and second in points (246), trailing only Scott
Niedermayer (264). He leads the team in
blueline scoring this season (29 points).
Fowler does not have a goal against Washington in his career, all seven
of his points in 11 career games coming on assists. He is also a minus-9 in his career against
the Caps, the only worse number being minus-11 in 27 games against the Dallas
Stars.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
It might sound strange to say of a Western Conference team,
but Alex Ovechkin has a history against the Anaheim Ducks. He recorded his first career hat trick
against the Ducks in 2006, scoring all of the Caps’ goals and the hat trick
goal coming in overtime in a 3-2 win. He
has points in 11 of the 15 games he skated against the Ducks. He was famously benched late in a one-goal
game against the Ducks in November 2011 as the Caps were trying for the tying
goal in the last minute of regulation (they got it, courtesy of Nicklas
Backstrom, and won a 5-4 decision in overtime on another Backstrom goal).
This season, it was Ovechkin who scored the overtime game winner back in
December in the Caps’ 3-2 win over the Ducks.
And when Ovechkin scores against this team, the Caps win; the Caps are
7-0-0 in the games against the Duck in which he scored at least one goal. He has a chance to make more history at the expense of the Ducks as he inches toward his 600th career goal, two goals short going into this game. Overall, Ovechkin is 10-13-23, minus-3, in 15
career games against Anaheim.
In the end…
Big trip, big games.
The Caps will be in first place in the Metropolitan Division at the end
of this game, no matter what, given who plays and who is idle, but a win would
be welcome as the Caps make up the game in hand they have on the Philadelphia
Flyers, currently in second place two points behind Washington. This might be the best team of the three
California teams to open against on this road trip, the Caps enjoying an 8-7-1
all-time edge against the Ducks in California with six wins in their last seven
trips to Anaheim (although they did get pasted, 5-0, in their last visit
there). Given Anaheim’s defensive
emphasis in their most recent run of success, goals might be difficult to come
by in this game, which means playing smart and avoiding mistakes, a couple of
things that the Caps have not consistently avoided this season.
Capitals 3 – Ducks 2