The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, October 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Didn’t we just do this yesterday? . . . Well, yes we did, but this is the NHL, and if this is Thursday, it must be . . . Atlanta.

The Caps took care of business last night with a 5-2 whipping of the Florida Panthers and now get the chance to redeem themselves for the overtime loss at the hands of the Thrashers last Saturday evening. It won’t be an easy task, since the Thrashers have had the week off since that contest in DC, while the Caps arrived in Atlanta early this morning (or so they are reported to have done).

The Peerless was wondering . . . what sort of things to players do to maintain their energy and focus for the second of a back-to-back set of games . . .

Well, there’s sleep . . . getting a good night’s rest is always a good thing.

Black coffee, and keep it comin’ . . . not a bad idea, if you don’t mind running back to the locker room at every TV time out . . .

But The Peerless is into visual themes . . . and he thinks he might have stumbled on a way for any player to stay wide awake and focused on keeping his feet moving for 60 minutes . . . the mental image of a crazed Ted Leonsis running after him – naked – shouting, GREAT SEATS ARE STILL AVAILABLE…GREAT SEATS ARE STILLLLLLL AVA-A-A-A-AILABLE!!!”

As for the game . . .

Ilya Kovalchuk scored his first goal of the year in last Saturday night’s game – the overtime game winner. Usually, we’d be concerned that this would be the first drop of a pelting rain of goals by the streaking sniper. But, he’s been off since that Saturday, too. Time enough to cool off?

Jonathan Sim (displaying his skating prowess) has five goals in six games . . . I had to look at that statistic a few times to let it sink in. And this from a guy with 35 goals in his first 230 NHL games. Take away his nine goals in 15 career games against Washington, and that’s 26 goals in 215 games (works out to about ten goals per full season). Mr. Mephisotpheles?...your client is here.

Slava Kozlov (here in the hockey equivalent of the "purposeful businessman off to a meeting" magazine cover) . . . with Sim, makes up something of a surprising second line. With as much attention as is given to Marian Hossa (with the always hilarious "tap-the-guy-with-your-stick, then-look-away-when-he-turns-around" move) and Ilya Kovalchuk (showing fans his Curly "nyuk-nyuk" move around a pylon dressed as Mike Commodore) on the top unit, these two wingers have combined to go 7-5-12, +8.

There will be no talk of a Johan Hedberg sighting (here in his, "why do I bother, he's not going to play me" expression). With five days’ rest and a division opponent on hand, it will almost certainly be Kari Lehtonen (distracted by Andy Sutton while Garnet Exelby picks his pocket) – and his 4-1-1, 1.63, .943 record – getting the start in goal. Lehtonen has not lost to Washington in four career starts.

For the Caps, the stories of last night were the play of the second line of Alexander Semin-Kris Beech-Richard Zednik in the first period (2-3-5, +9) and Olaf Kolzig, especially in the second period when the Caps looked a little too satisfied to make the effort. Compare that second line’s work last night with their line in the game against Atlanta last Saturday: 0-1-1, -2. Getting production out of that unit is of growing importance given the uneven start so far from the first line of Alexander Ovechkin-Dainius Zubrus-Chris Clark. If the second group can form a credible scoring threat, things might open up for the top line.

Something to watch . . . it seems teams are adopting similar strategies for dealing with rushes up the left side by Alex Ovechkin. They’re playing almost a triangle defense with a defenseman low, his pair shading a bit from the middle of the ice toward Ovechkin, cutting off the cut in, and a forward high, trailing him. Ovechkin always faces two men in any direction he wants to go, unless he decides to try to take the puck far along the boards. Both Atlanta – last Saturday – and Florida appeared to be employing this tactic whenever Ovechkin carried the puck into the offensive zone on the left side. This is where the other two linemates – especially Zubrus – would seem to need to make teams pay for leaving as much ice open as they do.

The Caps are not last year’s team, at least its early-season version. That they could play as listlessly as they did last night for the last 40 minutes (especially the middle period) and still hold onto a lead is a decent sign. But this is an upgrade in opponent, and it’s on their ice. Still, this is “Statement Week” for the Caps, and this is part two . . .

Caps 3 – Thrashers 2, in OT.

The Peerless' Morning After -- Caps vs. Panthers

When I got home last night, I was of a mind that that was about the worst 5-2 win as you're ever going to see, even thought the Caps put up five goals in the first period to end the competitive portion of the game. Despite his fine record coming into the game, Alex Auld put on a clinic on how not to play the position. Between leaving garbage all around his crease to whiffing on shots from near the blue line, it was a grisly night – four goals on only 12 shots.

But, having had the luxury of sleeping on it, it probably wasn’t as bad as I first thought, and these are the Caps – being grateful for a win should be required of fans.

I thought the Caps did three things well -- they capitalized on mistakes (for the first 15 minutes of the game, anyway), they killed 1:31 of a 5-on-3, and they took only four minors (perhaps as much a product of the listlessness of the last 50 minutes as any discipline on the Caps' part).

On the other hand, they fought the puck on their sticks most of the night. Alexander Semin flat out whiffed on several superb chances, never getting the puck to the net. Steve Eminger just didn’t look especially energized. And tonight, I could agree with some other Caps fans that are of a mind that something is amiss with Alexander Ovechkin -- I got the impression that the spirit was willing, but the body didn't have the overdrive gear he usually seems to have to outrace an opponent to the puck or to get position for a scoring chance. He had bursts of his top gear, but that just led me to believe even more than something is up. He picked his spots instead of relying on his usual unrelenting pursuit.

What led me to believe things weren’t as bad as I’d first thought was the experimentation with lines that seemed to characterize the last two periods. Looking over the shift chart, I see a number of odd combinations showing up from time-to-time, including . . . an Ovechkin-Klepis-Brashear line?

The best line of the night was the second line of Semin, Kris Beech, and Richard Zednik – 2-3-5 as a group with a +9 (plus-threes all around). But Olaf Kolzig was the difference here. If he allows a second, or even a third goal in the 5-on-3 in the Panthers had in the second period, I think the Panthers could have caught the Caps flatfooted over the rest of the game. Kolzig didn't have to do much in terms of making highlight saves; his game was that solid. The good thing was, Florida was just pitiful. How that team brought three wins into the building was a mystery to me.

The crowd was especially disappointing, even for a weeknight game. 10,125 announced, but it looked like about two thirds of that in real bodies.

The bottom line? The Caps did what they had to do – jump on a divisional opponent at home and protect the lead they earned. This isn’t a game they would have won last year, in my opinion. And that, friends, is a good thing.

-- The Peerless

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, October 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Howdy, Caps fans . . . we’re back with the latest game-day installment, and tonight, it’s the Florida Panthers . . . a Jekyll and Hyde team if there was one. But before we get to that, let’s go to The Peerless’ Mail Bag . . .

Our first letter is from a Peter B. from Maryland, who writes…

“Dear Peerless . . . tell George I’m still working out, he won’t return my calls.”

Well, Peter . . . The Peerless has two words of advice for you . . . “more twinkies” . . . you might as well, because George isn’t picking up the phone.

Our next writer, a “Mr. Tony” from DC writes…

“You’re a dope . . . hockey stinks . . . nobody shows up . . . how’s Jagr doing . . . “

Uh, Mr. Tony . . . I’ve seen you at your day job on ESPN, I’ve seen you at your night job on ESPN . . . you might want to try a job with a paper hat.

Next up, “Gary in New York” writes…

“Our attendance is just as good as last year at this time, if you think of it in terms of volume. Since Americans are getting fatter every year, we need fewer of them to have as much volume in the arena . . . and with our clubs offering delectable concessions such as deep-fried lard nuggets with bacon gravy and sugar sprinkles at reasonable prices for the whole family, we should far surpass our total volume of last year.”

Gary, the only thing that’s gotten fatter since last year is your head.

“Hitch in Philly” sends us this…

“Holy crap . . . did you get the number of that bus that hit us last night?”

It was a herd of slug, Hitch, and they’re still faster than your bunch.

“JR” in Arizona...

“Why don’t you ever write anything about Jeremy Roenick, maybe the greatest American player in hockey history, and damn good-looking guy, if I do say so, myself?”

Six games, 0-1-1, -4. Consider it done.

OK, now to the game . . . the Panthers come in with a 3-2-1 record in six games – 3-0-0 at home, 0-2-1 on the road. This happens to be a road game, so that’s a good sign for the men in black. Olli Jokinen leads the club in scoring at 3-5-8, which is not surprising; Gary Roberts has been upright for six games, well mostly, which is. Todd Bertuzzi, the very definition of the “power forward,” seems to have morphed into Wayne Gretzky with a five-o’clock shadow . . . 1-6-7 in six games, and he’s taken only six shots. I don’t want to be having to write “break out game” in reference to him this time tomorrow. Florida is not an especially formidable club at even strength; most of their players are on the minus side of the ledger, and the club is 19th in overall plus/minus – dead last in road plus/minus. But they have three wins and points in four of their six games, so you might conclude that their special teams are working well. Well, you’d be right, especially their power play, which is humming along in second in the league with a 28.6 percent success rate and a shorthanded goal. But the Jekyll and Hyde character all comes down to goaltending. Alex Auld has done well in the spotlight thus far, earning all the points at 3-0-1, 2.37, .935. Ed Belfour has sucked on toast at 0-2-0, 5.52, .822.

For the Caps, the thing that tops tonight’s to-do list is “improve power play.” With Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Richard Zednik, etc., the club should have more than four power play goals in 31 chances. But lurking in the weeds is this uncomfortable stat . . . while it is still early, the Caps’ penalty kill is worse at home (8-10, 80.0 percent) than on the road (11-13, 84.6 percent).

So, for tonight, the recipe is . . . take advantage of Florida’s weakness at even strength, score a goal on the power play why dontcha, and stay out of the penalty box. Do that (which is pretty much a game plan for any game), and here is your result . . .

Caps 4 – Panthers 2

Playoffs?...Caps? Peerless, have you lost your mind?

Maybe, but there is a way to ponder this possibility without having folks resort to confining me in a jacket with long sleeves that buckle in the back.

In this NHL, with 32 intradivision games, it's all in the division play. Last year, the Caps were 11-14-7, the only sub-.500 club in the division (and that is even considering the SO/OT losses as plain old losses). I happen to think the rest of the division has come back to the pack, as it were, and the Caps are better.

Add to that the fact that the Caps were 5-2-3 in their last 10 divisional games last year -- a far cry from their hideous start to the year when they were pasted in back to back games, 15-4, with the season barely started. The Caps didn't even get a regulation win in the division until January 21st.

If the club can find a way to extend their late-season success over the entire season (I doubt they will, but let's start there), that would mean earning 42 standings points in the division over the season. They earned 29 last year. That gets them to 83 this year without any change in their out-of-division record from last year. It goes a long way to getting into the playoff hunt.

Again, I don't think the club will ultimately make the playoffs (the club really lacks depth and experience for that kind of run), but they could make for an interesting winter.

The Peerless' Morning After: Thrashers 4 - Caps 3 (OT)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Thoughts on the morning after an overtime loss . . . nice ceremony before the game, but Alex Ovechkin looked strangely subdued, as if he was more interested in getting on with the game . . . team looked sluggish coming out, as if they were the club coming off a game the previous night . . . sweet pass from Alexander Semin to Jamie Heward for the first goal; that’s what five goals in three games will do – guys will collapse on you, leaving others open . . . Kari Lehtonen saved a point for Atlanta in the second period with his play – turned away 18 of 19 shots . . . on the other hand, it wasn’t Olie Kolzig’s best night – looked as if all three goals in regulation could have been stopped – but he kept the club in it over the last ten minutes . . . Kris Beech had his best game as a Cap . . . did Zednik actually dress? Hard to tell, invisible as he was . . . Note to George – find a way to get Jon Sim; it’s getting tiring seeing him score goals against the Caps, whatever uniform he wears . . . six penalties: three hooking, a hold, a trip, a holding the stick – all from forwards -- obstruction penalties will kill this team . . . Peerless said winning faceoffs and shots would be key – Caps won both (60%FO wins in the offensive zone), lost the game – the difference was Lehtonen . . . power play looks badly out of sync . . . the Ovechkin-Zubrus PP squad was more often the second group on . . . and why is such a dynamic puck-handler such as Ovechkin being asked to stand in front on the PP? . . . small wonder the Caps sit 21^st on the PP . . . Caps have now one of each: win, loss, OT loss, shootout loss; guess this means and OT or shootout win are up next . . . and finally -- congrats, Mats, on 500 . . .

The Peerless Prognostictor is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, October 14

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Yes, fans of the swooping eagle, The Peerless is here once again to bring you the finest in prognostitory prognosticationing.

When last we met, we were anticipating a victory against the Minnesota Wild. Well, it didn’t happen – it was a shootout loss – but it sort of had the feel of a win . . . plucky underdog, beat up, goes into hostile arena (well, just how hostile do Minnesotans get? . . . do they pelt you with lutefisk?), plays the undefeated home team to a tie through overtime . . . frankly, it wasn’t a bad result for this squad at this time of the year.

But now, it’s back home and back to the division – the Atlanta Thrashers come to town for a Saturday evening tilt, which makes this sort of a “Saturday Evening Post.” Sorry, kids, that publication was around long before y’all were born.

Atlanta lost a tough one last night – a goal in the last half-second of regulation play from the then-winless Carolina Hurricanes – so they might be in an ornery mood come this evening. What better way to show “Capspitality” than to offer up some down-home southern recipes to the weary travelers . . .

Brian Sutherby’s own “Hits-n-Grits” . . . Take one cantankerous center, add two bad-tempered wings (Donald Brashear and Brooks Laich, preferred brands), stir, and allow to hit for 60 minutes. It’ll tenderize thrasher very nicely.

Alex Ovechkin’s “Spicy Snap Peas and Hot Wrist Shots” . . . One quick-cookin’ treat . . . take one left wing . . . let him churn up ice at high speed . . . add one puck . . . one hot wrist shot later, voila! . . . instant goal. Trouble is, this is such a tasty treat, no one is satisfied with just one! Oh, the peas? Feed ‘em to the dog . . . or Bobby Holik.

Shaone Morrisonn’s “Shoo-‘way pie” . . . a traditional southern treat, fitting for any occasion, be it in front of the net or in the corners or along the boards . . . take stick firmly in both hands, apply it and body to anyone in a light-colored jersey (or small bird like, say, a thrasher), and shoo ‘em away vigorously.

Uncle Glen’s Fine Moonshine Power Line . . . yee-haw . . . now here’s a lip-smackin, thrasher-thwackin’ treat . . . First, ya git a helpin’ o’ Alexander Semin over yonder on the left side . . . then, ya git a big ol’ handful of Dainius Zubrus down in the other corner diggin’ out pucks . . . up over there on the ridge on the blue line, ya get some o’ that Brian Pothier for some added spice . . . over ‘cross the way, maybe a bit o’ that Mike Green . . . kinda young this time o’ year, but tasty anyway . . . and there in the middle, a heapin’ helpin’ of Alex Ovechkin . . . ready to pounce on any ol’ puck that comes his way. Now, that might not be quite the thing for a Kari Lehtonen (but he’s a Finn, what does he know?), but for us Caps fans? . . . whooooooo-EE, that’s mighty fine shine.

Now that’s a menu for a happy ol’ weekend if I ever did see one. As for the game, some things to watch . . .

Atlanta is second in the league at the moment in giving up only 1.4 goals per game. And, they are fifth in faceoff winning percentage. Washington is 18^th in both statistics. In this NHL, The Peerless does not see those as separate considerations. Getting the puck and keeping the puck go a long way toward keeping the puck out of your own net.

Atlanta is a team that has been playing well at even strength, with only one player – Steve Rucchin – on the minus side of the ledger. The Caps record on this score is a bit deceptive. The Ovechkin-Zubrus-Zednik line of game one was -4 across the board. IN two games since, Ovechkin has crawled back to -1, Zubrus to -2, and Zednik has not lost any more ground. Clearly, that experiment didn’t appear to work.

Shots . . . The Peerless thinks they matter over the length of a season. Atlanta has given up the fifth fewest shots per game . . . the Caps are 23^rd. Add that to faceoffs (it’s that puck thing), and it would seem further to explain the difference in goals allowed (yeah, The Peerless knows, Lehtonen is a fine goalie, too).

So, for the Caps, they have to be mindful of faceoffs and fire as much rubber as possible at the net. Ovechkin will likely get his shots (24 so far); Semin, too (11). But some others need to step up in this regard – Dainius Zubrus and Kris Beech among the forwards, Brian Pothier and Ben Clymer among the defensemen.

The Peerless liked what he saw against Carolina and Minnesota – two teams with capable defenses. While Lehtonen has played very well, that ends tonight at VerMCIzon Center . . .

We’s gonna have us a good time, now, y’hear? Break out the sippin’ whiskey . . .

Caps 5 – Thrashers 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR! . . . Caps vs. Wild, October 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Tonight, from the Land of 10,000 Potential Outdoor Rinks . . . Our Caps visit their wrath upon the Minnesota Wild, which begs the question . . . Wild what? Maybe Girls Gone Wild? When did “Wild” become plural, anyway? And isn’t that use of the singular so 1980’s, so World Football League . . . the Philadelphia Bell . . . the Chicago Fire . . . the Shreveport Steamer (what, they cleaned carpets in the off-season?) . . . the Minnesota Wild. Hey, join the 21st century, guys.

Visiting the folks in Minnesota does, however, put me in mind of a song . . . Hit it!

Who can turn the world on with his smile?
Who can take a nothing play, and suddenly make it all seem worthwhile?
Well it's you guy, and you should know it
With each deke and every little movement you show it

Goals are all around, no need to waste it
You can make the shot, why don't you take it
You're gonna make it after all
You're gonna make it after all


How will you help us win this game?
This rink is awfully big, guy this time you can’t be too tame
So it's time you started hitting
It's time you let someone else do some hurting

Goals are all around, no need to waste it
You can make the shot, why don't you take it
You're gonna make it after all
You're gonna make it after all

As for the game, these aren’t your father’s Wild. This bunch actually looks at the net. Marian Gaborik, or “Bondra Lite,” has earned a reputation for being a goal-scorer, but he was a Ferrari skating in the sand of the (beware – head-shaking moment ahead) Wild style of defense-defense-defense . . . more one of boring their opponents into submission, or “Devils Lite.”

But now, with Pavol Demitra, Mike Rolston, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, and Todd White (hey, he’s got two goals, same as our own Alex O.) to jump start the offense, the Wild look like a team dangerous at both ends.

For the Caps, they’ll be looking to celebrate Mike Green’s 21st birthday with their second win. It looks as though Brent Johnson gets to trade his baseball cap for a mask tonight and stand between the pipes – “stand” being a term of imagery . . . if all he does is stand, it’ll be a long night. Maybe The Peerless should use the term, “man the crease,” but that conjures all sorts of other images, most not suitable for a family column.

It looks as though Boyd Gordon and Matt Pettinger – a good portion of energy among the forwards (energy = “pain in the ass to the opponent”) will be on the shelf for this one, although Matt Bradley could return, if Mike Vogel’s take is on target. Even so, with A-squared showing signs of being on the “hot” side of a streak and Brent Johnson getting a chance to shine, all signs point to a good night for the home side (as if The Peerless would be picking anything else) . . .

Caps 4 – Wild 3

Happy Birthday, Mr. Mohawk

The Peerless' Look At the Season Ahead

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! (Well, it's about freakin' time!)

It’s time . . . well, past time, actually . . . for The Peerless’ Profound Prognostication on the season for Our Washington Capitals. It promises to be an exciting year, an interesting year . . . an “Ovechkinacious” year! So, let’s get to the particulars . . .

Kris Beech –

Nickname: “Beechie”

Code Name: “Faceoff Man”

Beech is the last vestige of the Jagr trade, several times removed. The prodigal center was all but handed the second line center job, which he didn’t exactly grab by the throat in training camp. Still, circumstances conspired to allow him to dress opening night. One must think he’s on a first name basis with the Devil for some bargain he made.

Projected finish: 11-24-35, -9

“The Issue:” Will he play more than 50 games? He’s only played 30 – total – since the 2001-2002 season.

Matt Bradley –

Nickname: “Brads”

Code Name: “Fighting Vehicle”

Has a certain “Rock ‘Em, Sock ‘Em Robot” quality to his play. Third line is where he appears ticketed. Plays with a certain brio that reflects the attitude of the team. Unfortunately, like too much of the team, his effort isn’t matched by his skill. If he can do the little things and be an agitator of sorts, he has value.

Projected Finish: 8-14-22, -6

“The Issue:” Durability. The last two full seasons, he missed a total of eight games. But, does his style lead to nicks and dents? He’s starting the year on the day-to-day injury report.

Donald Brashear –

Nickname: yeah, right . . . YOU give him a nickname.

Code Name: “Pain”

He’s here for one reason – to make sure anyone with designs on touching Alex Ovechkin for purposes other than shaking hands is dealt with swiftly and surely. It’s a hard way to make a living, but the pay is good.

Projected Finish: 4-10-14, -6

The Issue: “Productivity” – Last year he had a dropoff, even for his low expectations in that regard. The way the league is set up, even enforcers have to be able to contribute something within the rules.

Chris Clark –

Nickname: “Captain”

Code Name: “Captain Capital”

Last year was a “Christmas Morning” kind of year . . . he got to wake up every morning knowing he’s be on Alex Ovechkin’s right side. And he made the most of it with a career goal-scoring year. This year, his linemates might not be as cut and dried as was the case last year. He could end up on any of the top three lines, but he has the work attitude and a measure of the skill to contribute in any of those roles.

Projected Finish: 18-21-39, +11

The Issue: “Career Year,” as in, was last year his career year? He might not reach the 20 goal mark this year, but he should not be any less productive as an all-around player or presence on the ice and in the locker room.

Ben Clymer –

Nickname: “Hey!”

Code Name: “Lon Chaney” . . . man of 1,000 disguises – defenseman, forward . . . ok, well, two disguises

One of the big experiments here; Clymer goes back to the blue line. This is one of those “New NHL” things not unlike bringing Jamie Heward back into the NHL last year. You wouldn’t do this in the “old” clutch, grab, gouge, scratch NHL. But in this version? His skating will correct a lot of problems.

Projected Finish: 7-16-23, -7

The Issue: “Eureka,” as in, Eureka, we’ve found a defenseman. We should have a good idea about the truth of that statement by New Years.

Steve Eminger –

Nickname: Em

Code Name: “M” – what’s it stand for? Hey, if I told you, it wouldn’t be much of a code, then, would it?

OK, it’s time. Last year might be written off as a product of the injury he suffered in January that shelved him for several weeks and left him without his best tool – skating – for much of the rest of the year. But it’s time to step up and be a solid top-four defender. Absent injury, the Caps will know what they have in this guy for the long term this year.

Projected Finish: 8-18-26, -3

The Issue: “Perseverance” . . . Is he going to be there – night in and night out – putting forth the effort his position and the responsibility he’s being given demand?

John Erskine—

Nickname: “Erskie”

Code Name: “Sir”

He’s one of the most accomplished tough guys in the league. That will be his role. Given that he isn’t the shiftiest of skaters, it would seem likely that he will dress only in selected situations.

Projected Finish:

0-2-2, -4

Issue: “Liability” . . . he might provide protection, but does it come at the expense of defensive skill on a team already challenged in that regard?

Rico Fata –

Nickname: “Suave”

Code Name: “Blink” – as in, he’s past you in the blink of an eye

He’s a tease. Skates like the wind blows, and shoots like he’s trying to play darts with a meatball (no, I have no idea what that means). Hands of some sort of igneous rock. He’ll scream down the wing, take a pass right on his stick, lean in, and . . . fire the puck into the high netting.

Projected Finish: 3 (all by accident)-6-9, -1

The Issue: “Health,” as in, when Pettinger gets well, does Fata get moved?

Boyd Gordon –

Nickname: “Gordo”

Code Name: “PK”

He won’t be 23 for a little while yet, but already he seems a bit of an enigma. In junior, his goal scoring went 10-12-22-32. In the AHL in the last two years he had 17 goals, then 16 in only 58 games last year. But, he shows little so far at this level in terms of offensive instincts. He has a reputation as a competent penalty killer, and that will be the key to his value for the time being.

Projected Finish: 6-9-15, -2

Issue: "Progress" as in "will he make any progress in his offensive game?"

Mike Green --

Nickname: "Greenie"
Code Name: "The Guy The Peerless Left Out First Time Around"

Shows remarkable maturity for a guy turning 21 on October 12. He has as complete a game -- made to order for this NHL -- as any young defenseman the Caps have. And therin lies the problem this year. He will get a lot of minutes in a lot of key situations. And, he's still very "green," so to speak. Mistakes will be made. But more often than not, he should give a clear indication why he might have been the steal of the first round in the 2004 draft.

Projected Finish: 7-12-19, -8.

Issue: "Patience" . . . as in, "have patience, Caps fans." He'll make mistakes, but that's part of learning this difficult position as a youngster.

Jamie Heward –

Nickname: “Huey”

Code Name: “Eyebrow”

Had a nice season last year for a guy who hadn’t played an NHL game since 2001-2002. He plays a very inconspicuous game – last year had a very quiet 28 points. Is another of the “New NHL” kind of players.

Projected Finish: 5-17-22, -3

Issue: “Minutes” – if he’s getting the minutes he did last year, it is a hint that the kids – Eminger and Green in particular – aren’t having the years Caps fans hope they’ll have.

Brent Johnson –

Nickname: “Johnny”

Code Name: “Baseball Cap”

Finished rather well last year . . . I think it was the new duds. Now that he’s broken them in, he should have a fabulous year. By the end of last year, he gave clues that he could stand in for Kolzig if the need arose, at least for the short term.

Projected Finish: 8-10-3, 3.13, .902

Issue: “Focus” . . . the backup goalie, especially one playing behind a minutes-eater like Kolzig, is always going to have to be creative to stay sharp, but Johnson seems to have acclimated himself to this role pretty well.

Jakub Klepis –

Nickname: “Klepie”

Code Name: “38 caliber”

If one Hershey guy would have made a breakthrough in camp, I don’t think Klepis would have been the pick of most. But he had a solid camp and looks a good deal more comfortable at this level. Now, that’s a lot different from saying he’ll be an impact player. In fact, he might yet spend time in Hershey this year, but he has made strides.

Projected Finish: 6-11-17, -4

Issue: “Comfort” . . . he clearly had skill; it’s just a matter of his reaching a comfort level with the pace of the game at this level, a comfort level with his teammates (he would seem to be in a position of playing with various combinations, especially early).

Olaf Kolzig –

Nickname: “Godzilla”

Code Name: “Broken Stick”

Faced more shots on a per-game basis than any other goalie in the NHL. That’s a lot of work for a veteran of such years. So, he came in lighter – a signal that he’s not taking this losing or rebuilding stuff lying down . . . or flopping around. Ovechkin might be the most valuable player on the Caps, but Kolzig is the straw who stirs the drink. As he goes, so go the Caps.

Projected Finish: 28-26-7, 3.11, .904

Issue: “Minutes” . . . he’s spent a lot of seasons eating up more than 4,000 minutes. Last year he had over 3,500. Chances are he’ll be in that neighborhood again.

Brooks Laich –

Nickname: “Brooksie”

Code Name: “Trout”

Decent numbers for a rookie getting third/fourth line minutes, and not a bad faceoff percentage (a shade under 50 percent). He’ll be one of those guys who will bear watching to see if he gets more responsibility; it’s players like him that are just about as important to the rebuild as the stars.

Projected Finish: 10-21-31, -5

Issue: “SRO” . . . there are a lot of checking forwards on this team; it’s a crowded category. His versatility should put him ahead of most for ice time.

Shaone Morrisonn –

Nickname: “Shoney”

Codename: N (for the extra one he carries)

For now, and perhaps for the future, the designated shut-down defenseman. He doesn’t have the build to suggest such a role, lanky as he is, but his reach and smarts serve him well in defending the top opponents. He might not go almost a whole season without a goal – as he did last year – but it will hardly matter if he can keep the other side off the score sheet.

Projected Finish: 3-13-16, +9

Issue: “zzzz” Morrisonn plays a very composed game; if you don’t remember him, chances are he’s done well.

Bryan Muir –

Nickname: “Muirie”

Code Name: “Ivan” . . . hey, someone has to assume the Majesky Chair of Advanced Griping

I never saw what the problem was with Muir last year, except for perhaps playing in a pairing too high on most nights. He had more than 21 minutes, 26 points, and was -9 which wasn’t particularly good, but on last year’s team could have been a lot worse. This year, he’ll probably get fewer minutes, but he’ll be more effective in them.

Projected Finish: 3-10-13, -3

Issue: “Time, please” . . . if he’s getting more than 14-16 minutes a night this year, something unpleasant is happening elsewhere on the Caps’ blue line.

Alexander Ovechkin –

Nickname: “Ovie”

Code Name: “Cruise Missle”

What does one do for an encore? 52-54-106 is a bit much to improve upon, but Ovechkin is playing with more offensive weapons than last year, which could take some of the attention away from him, at least part of the time. Asking for improvement is a bit like telling DaVinci . . . “uh, shouldn’t there be a few more brush strokes on that Mona Lisa?”

Projected Finish: 51-58-109, +6

Issue: “No” . . . the biggest problem he might deal with, given the notoriety he enjoys after last year, could be claims on his time. He seems accommodating to a fault; he might need a designated “no-sayer” to run interference for him.

Matt Pettinger –

Nickname: “Princess”

Code Name: “Pinball”

Even though he still plays like a pinball careening around the ice, he had a career year last year with 20 goals, including five of the shorthanded variety. It will be difficult to improve upon that, but if he keeps a certain manic aspect to his game, he will continue to be valuable.

Projected Finish: 14-18-32, even

Issue: “Ouch” . . . he plays a smash-mouth kind of style, one which could leave him missing time (he is injured as The Peerless writes this).

Brian Pothier –

Nickname: “Potsie”

Code Name: “Chachi”

He was given a big contract, and the temptation – for both him and fans – is to think of him as a top or top-pair defenseman. He wasn’t that in Ottawa, and while he will be that in Washington for a time, it really isn’t his long-term role here, either. If he can play within that, he will be a fine addition. If he tries to play outside of himself, it could be a struggle.

Projected Finish: 7-24-31, -3

Issue: “Spotlight” . . . he’s the big signing this year for the Caps. What folks need to understand is that this is different from being a big signing. Zdeno Chara was a big signing. The Caps added a player. There’s a difference.

Alexander Semin –

Nickname: [unprintable]

Code Name: “Stealth”

Here is the under the radar addition, perhaps of the entire league. He has the skill to be a 35-goal scorer – right now. He won’t get there, but eventually, he will. He is noticeably bigger and stronger on his skates. It does not appear to have cost him speed. Whether he’s made any strides in terms of defensive responsibility is an open question that only time will answer.

Projected Finish: 26-25-51, -4

Issue: “Blending” . . . as in “blending in.” He had a deer-in-headlights look for much of his first year in Washington. If he can gain some command of the language and rise to a level of comfort in these surroundings, it will be two things he need concern himself with less than what is happening on the ice.

Brian Sutherby –

Nickname: “Suts”

Code Name: “@#&$”

Sutherby has an edge to his game, and it seems this has been lost in folks looking at his offensive numbers (or lack of them heading into last year). Last year, he added some offense to his game, and he might be poised for the same breakout this year on offense that Matt Pettinger had last year.

Projected Finish: 20-23-43, -2

Issue: “Expectations” . . . Sutherby is a first round draft choice – 26^th overall in 2000. With that might have come some unrealistic expectations as far as his offense is concerned. He can be an 18-22 goal player, but his value is more in stopping the other guy and getting under his skin.

Richard Zednik –

Nickname: “Zed”

Code Name: “Nik”

So, can you go “home” again? Trading for Zednik was more of a “placeholder” move, waiting for Eric Fehr to take over as the scoring right winger on this club. Zednik is not an especially good passer and can be a liability in his own zone. His value is a product of how many goals he will score. But since tallying 31 in 2002-2003, he has slipped to 26 and 15 the next two years.

Projected Finish: 16-22-38, -5

Issue: “Fit” He and Semin are primarily goal scorers. How they will fit on a second line is an open question. Given the questions surrounding the Caps’ situation at center on that line, this – along with the Caps’ ability to play any defense -- is perhaps the most important story line in the season.

Dainius Zubrus –

Nickname: “Zubie”

Code Name: “Lucky” (as in “to be centering Ovechkin”)

Long expected to have a breakout season to justify his being a 15^th overall draft pick in 1996, he has a nice season last year on the ice (23-34-57, +3) while mentoring Ovechkin. Whether he can take another step up is the next question. He might be at the top his offensive game; to expect more is at this point probably unrealistic.

Projected Finish: 20-33-53, +4

Issue: “Time” . . . In every full year with Washington, he has missed at least 11 games for a variety of reasons. This year he comes into the year recovering from a knee injury. It is not an encouraging sign.

Others . . .

Tomas Fleischmann . . . should get a look from time to time; he suffers from their being much more depth on the left side on this team. Maybe 15 or so games, 3-3-6, -2.

Alexandre Giroux . . . described in some places as potentially a “late bloomer;” likely to be an injury call up at some point. Maybe 6-8 games, 0-2-2, -2

Jeff Schultz . . . an outside shot at a call up this year; this is a development year for him.

Dave Steckel . . . a hard working sort, could be an injury call-up from time to time.

Chad Wiseman . . . is probably in the same situation as Steckel.

Special Teams . . .

The Caps finished 26^th on the power play, 28^th on the penalty kill. Only Los Angeles was lower in the combined Index of Special Teams Woe (28^th/30^th). This year will be better – it can’t be worse. The key will be taking fewer penalties and not wearing out penalty killers on a nightly basis. If they could crawl into the top 20 in penalty kill, they could challenge for a playoff spot. On the other side of the ledger, the power play should benefit from teams not being able to load up on an Ovechkin first unit. If Semin plays on that unit, teams must pay attention to him, as well as Ovechkin. If he plays on the second unit, it should mean more opportunities to take advantage of lesser penalty kill units. This group could be a top 15 unit if things go well, but they lack a proven power play quarterback with a big shot from the blueline to make that seem likely.

At the end of the day . . .

The Caps will be better – better than last year, better than most think they will be this year. They could make a run at a playoff spot, but that presumes two things – first, and most important, no injuries. It is still not a team with much depth in terms of skill or experience. An injury to a front line player would be a problem; one to Kolzig or Ovechkin would be a catastrophe. Second, players who had career years – Zubrus, Clark, Pettinger, Sutherby – must match or improve on those records.

It says here that there will be glimpses of what could be in the near future, but that future is not yet here.

Final record: 36-36-10, 12^th in the East.

A Tale of Two Games

Alex Ovechkin . . .

Game one: He hasn't scored, he looks sluggish, he hasn't scored, maybe he's hurt, he hasn't scored, what's up with his girlfriend, he hasn't scored, he was -4, he hasn't scored

Game Two: Woo-Hoo! He scored, 15 shots!, he scored, six hits, he scored, Sidney-who?, he scored, did you see that tip-in?, he scored


Olie Kolzig . . .

Game One: a goal 29 seconds in?, Mr. Softee, put Johnson in, same old -- emphasis on 'old' -- story

Game Two: O-lie O-lie O-lie, stood on his head, kept 'em it in early, He da man!


Brian Pothier . . .

Game One: $2.5 million for this guy?

Game Two: Three assists?...the blue line QB we've been waiting for!


Kris Beech . . .

Game One: Career AHLer

Game Two: Hey, he's pretty good!


The Caps . . .

Game One: What do you know about Angelo Esposito?

Game Two: Will the parade be down Pennsylvania Avenue?


. . . welcome to hockey in Washington

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR -- Caps vs. Canes, October 7, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!!

It’s Opening Night in Hockeytown! No, really. Hey, don’t give me any nonsense about Detroit. When someone goes on the radio and renders spittle into the microphone like this over the hockey team, talk to me. In the meantime . . .

We’re here outside VerMCIzon Center, where throngs of Caps fans are participating in the opening night festivities. Some of the fun things to do that you won’t hear about on the official press release . . .

“Dress-Up McPhee.” For the young ladies among our hockey fans, they get a model of General Manager George McPhee to dress in business suit or hockey uniform. Unfortunately, all the outfits are in black.

“What’s Next Alex?” . . . He’s taken batting practice; he’s thrown out the first pitch, he’s got a hole-in-one on his resume. Fans get to guess, “what’s next, Alex?” Will he ride at Pimlico? Take snaps at Redskin Park? Challenge guard Gilbert Arenas to a one-on-one? Winner gets to man the nets to face a few Ovechkin wristers and slap shots – pads optional.

“ChauffOlie” . . . the newest in electronic game technology . . . you get to sit in the driver’s seat of Olaf Kolzig’s Maserati and try to get him from his house to MCI Center on time for a 7 pm contest. Only one hitch . . . it’s rush hour. No cheating by trying to listen to Traffic on the 8’s on WTOP, either. Good luck.

“Pie Me, Dude!” . . . Fans get three tries to throw a pie in their favorite Cap player’s face. Sorry, Bryan Muir will not be available; fans might try to toss other things, like tomatoes . . . or worse.

“Zed Bread” . . . local bakeries will be selling loaves in the image of Caps’ fans favorite #20.

“Ted Heads” . . . Fans will be given goatees as they enter the arena . . . one lucky fan will be chosen to write the next Owner’s Corner to try to break the world land speed record for clichés.

As for the game . . .

The Caps come in dinged up, and that is on top of being banged up by the Rangers on Thursday night. Matt Bradley and Matt Pettinger are out. Tarik tells us in this morning's Washington Post that Brooks Laich and Boyd Gordon were nicked in the Ranger game and might not play. One also wonders if Alex Ovechkin is 100 percent after a largely silent preseason and a blank scoresheet in the opener. Perhaps that knee injury he suffered early on in the preseason is a little more that what the club has been telling folks. It all begs the question of who is coming down from Hershey. Just in case, though, fans might want to bring skates . . .

The Stanley Cup Champion Carolina Hurricanes come in without a win in either of their first two games – a shootout loss to Buffalo and a shutout at the hands of New Jersey and Martin Brodeur, both at home. The Peerless prognosticates that they will be in an angry mood.

But in light of the medical situation and the caliber and attitude of the team the Caps are playing, it’s time to let The General say what needs to be said to the troops . . .


Now, I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a hockey game by taking a penalty for his team. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard take a penalty for his team. Men, all this stuff you’ve heard about the Caps not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the contest, is a lot of horse dung. Caps traditionally love to fight. All real Caps love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer. Caps fans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Caps play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Caps have never lost and will never lose a game. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Capitals.

Now, a hockey club is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, checks as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The bilious bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for ESPN don’t know anything more about real hockey games than they do about fornicating.

We have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. You know, by God I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to check the bastards, we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to tape the blades of our sticks. We’re going to hit those lousy Hurricane bastards by the bushel.

Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Hurricanes are the enemy. Wade into them. Spill their blood. Check them into the boards. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do.

Now there’s another thing I want you to remember. I don’t want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let Carolina do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks you what did you do in the great National Hockey League, you won’t have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in DC."

Alright now, you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel. Oh, and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle – anytime, anywhere.

That’s all.

Caps 4 – Carolina 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR! . . . Opening Night, October 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We’re here, live – which sure beats “dead” – in New York for opening night on this, the 2006-2007 National Hockey League season. And the red carpet is out, upon which will tread luminaries from the world of hockey, the solar system of sport, the galaxy of entertainment, the galactic cluster of celebrity, and the odd moon from Ranger fans.

The Caps are visiting the New York Rangers, the people’s (well, Larry Brooks’) choice as the prohibitive favorite to capture the Stanley Cup and take it on a pub crawl next summer. And the limos are lining up as we inch closer to the drop of the puck inside the storied arena . . .

Why, here is Donald Trump, real estate magnate, television personality, and a man for whom his hair serves as an engineering marvel of which NASA can only dream – The Donald, himself . . . “You can call me, ‘The’”

Well, it’s a pleasure to see you, The . . . I take it you’re a big hockey fan.

“Always have been . . . even played some. You think these teeth are mine?"

And what fine teeth they are . . . what do you like most about the game, The?

“Gotta be the refs . . . I’m a big fan of Kerry Fraser.”

Well, I can see why . . . thanks for stopping by, The.

And here is the famous-for-being-famous Paris Hilton . . . Paris, I guess after duking it out with a beauty queen at a club the other night, I’m guessing your favorite part of hockey is the fights . . . Paris? . . . uh, Paris? . . . is anyone home in there? . . . Bueller? . . . Bueller? . . .

OK, well . . . here is Simon Cowell, the unsparingly blunt and caustic judge of “American Idol” . . . Simon, so you’re a big hockey fan . . .

“Well, that has to be the most inane question I’ve heard since the cabbie asked, ‘where to, buddy?’ I’m not here to admire the stunning architecture of this hat box on steroids” . . .

Uh, yeah . . . so, Rangers? Caps? Who do you see winning tonight?

“Who? Oh, yes, the sides playing tonight . . . actually, I couldn’t care less. I’m just here to promote my next exciting reality show, “The NHL’s Got Talent” . . .

And here’s Regis Philbin . . . Hey, Rege . . .

“Stop that crook, Cowell . . . he owes me money for being a judge on his lame talent show!”

Well, enough of the B-List stars, what about the game? The Caps come in limping with Dainius Zubrus still on the mend from a knee injury and Matt Pettinger in the “week-to-week” category with the always fearsome "upper body injury." It will give fans a chance to see Rico Fata skate like the wind and shoot like a pee-wee with his helmet on backwards, and it will give Jakub Klepis a chance to see if he can get some minutes on one of the top two lines. Fans will be eagerly awaiting news on whether the “Alex Squared” power play can generate some excitement or not, and will be looking to have an early answer to the matter of whether Alexander Ovechkin’s failure to score a goal in the preseason was a product of precaution (the club treated him gingerly in the exhibition phase) or is a harbinger of a sophomore slump.

The Rangers come in as a team with some questions – is Jaromir Jagr anything close to healthy? Is Henrik Lundqvist past his hip and migraine problems, and is he still “King Henrik” or just the “Hank from the Beer League” he looked to be last spring? Can fewer Czechs mean fewer wins?

Here is The Peerless Prognostication . . .

Ovechkin, who has a flair for the dramatic, will score early on one of sports’ biggest stages.

Olaf Kolzig will frustrate the Rangers.

Brendan Shanahan will enjoy a fine Ranger debut, but Jagr will have a quiet night.

Marek Malik will not have an opportunity to try any more trick shots.

The Caps will skate off with a 3-2 win.

The Peerless’ Three Star Prediction . . .

First Star: Olaf Kolzig
Second Star: Brendan Shanahan
Third Star: Alex Ovechkin

Alex and "The Hump"

I was reading Tarik El-Bashir's column on the Caps in this morning's Washington Post in which he wrote about Alex Ovechkin being one piece of the puzzle. Hockey being what it is, even the best of skaters play not much more than a third of any game. And that's the trouble with the Caps. Once you get past Ovechkin, there isn't anyone who can be called a dominant player.

The kid needs help.

So, when is it coming, George? Well, here's the money quote . . .

"You have to get to the hump before you can get over it . . . We'll add the right pieces at the right time. We'll have to see when that time comes, whether it's late this season or early next season."

As a fan, that tells me that McPhee is putting down a marker. The time is coming, this year or next, when the rebuild is going to be at a point where adding free agents or securing other assets -- not prospects or draft picks -- in trade is going to arrive. The timing is important, since next year Ovechkin will be in the last year of his entry deal, and Olaf Kolzig will be another year older.

Fans have been patient, and even though they don't write the checks for talent, they do for tickets. They aren't going to want to hear, "wait, be patient," forever. The time is coming.

Fans will be watching.

The Peerless is BACK!! . . . Let the 2006-2007 Season Begin!!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!!

He’s back on this, the inaugural night of the 2006-2007 NHL season. And in this first installment of what promises to be a blog chock full of bloggy type stuff you won’t find anywhere else in blogdom, you get The Peerless’ own prognostications for the year ahead.

So let’s get right to it . . . in the East:

The Division Champs:

Buffalo . . . Look, here’s the deal, short and sweet. You fob off uniforms that ugly on the word of hockey, you’d better be able to play. Buffalo can. They had more balance on offense than just about any other team in the league last year, which made up for the lack of a single dominant player. Their defense was mobile and opportunistic, and Ryan Miller cemented his status as the number one goaltender. There is no reason to believe this group will slide backward. Last year was about realizing they can play; this year is about demonstrating they can win.

New Jersey . . . the circus here in the off season was not about players, it was about numbers – the amount by which the Devils were over the projected 2006-2007 salary cap. Now that Lou Lamoriello seems to have dodged a howitzer shell on the matters of Vladimir Malakhov and Alexander Mogilny, it’s back to being a matter of hockey, and the Devils won’t be much different a team than they finished with last year. That, plus The Peerless’ view that the other powers in the Atlantic fall back a bit, leaves the Devils as the choice here.

Carolina . . . The Champs have the unenviable task of trying to prove that a “dynasty” can exist in a capped salary era. There are some serious questions about this group – is Cam Ward the real deal? Will the veterans Mark Recchi and Doug Weight be missed? Can Erik Cole come back from a neck injury? Can Andrew Ladd pick up the slack over a whole season? In the end, it comes down to Ward. While Carolina is the pick in the Southeast, where other teams have even more questions, it says here they take a step back this year – a hangover from the unexpected run they made last year.

The Rest of the Playoff Seeds:

Ottawa . . . The window is closing on this team. They lost Zdeno Chara (although that loss will not be as big as some imagine), Martin Havlat and Brian Smolinski are gone, they’re weak on the left side, and I’m not sold on the idea of Martin Gerber as being “The Man” to lead them deep into the playoffs. There is too much of a whiff of underachievement with the franchise over the last several seasons to think they will do anything but look good for 82 regular season games, even though they’re no longer the class of the Northeast, and go quick-and-quiet in the playoffs.

New York Rangers . . . They will not be the team that finished with 100 points last year, despite adding Brendan Shanahan, Aaron Ward, and Matt Cullen to the roster. The finish last year was the kind that could leave a bad taste – Jaromir Jagr getting injured and Henrik Lundqvist coming back from injuries and playing through migraines last spring were the unhappy last chapters on an unexpectedly good year. While the injuries might be repaired, lingering concerns won’t go away – will a player who will turn 35 in February find himself prone to recurring shoulder problems? Was crowding Lundqvist – as the Devils successfully executed last spring – a strategy teams will employ this year? The Rangers added solid pros to their roster, but questions about their defense and those surrounding their two most important players will be a lot to overcome in any effort to improve on last year’s finish. They will finish higher in the standings than last year, but with a weaker team.

Philadelphia . . . wind ‘em up, watch ‘em get a playoff spot. That’s been true for a while now, and they probably could make the playoffs on the basis of memory alone. But this team is poised for a considerable dropoff. The biggest concern is health. And this is on top of losing almost 400 man-games to injury last year. Keith Primeau is gone – a casualty of post-concussion syndrome. Peter Forsberg is a walking medical chart. Antero Niitymaki will play as long as he can with a hip injury. Denis Gauthier suffered a concussion in the last preseason game. The Flyers’ season would appear to hinge largely on what progress can be made by Joni Pitkanen, Mike Richards, and Jeff Carter. All that aside, though, Bobby Clarke’s stubborn insistence on treating the position of goaltender the way a baby treats a diaper means that whatever success the Flyers have in the regular season will not translate well to the playoffs.

Montreal . . . From this point through the 11^th in The Peerless’ rankings, the teams become almost interchangeable in terms of their chances. The fight for the last two spots will be a thrill for fans to watch the last month. It starts here with Montreal. The Canadiens do not have any single player with top-end pop on their offense, but Saku Koivu, Chris Higgins, and Sergei Samsonov will provide some balance. Cristobal Huet started well but finished poorly last year. If he can record a whole year with the performance he had in the first half, this is a playoff team. If not, it’s golf in April.

Tampa Bay . . . They have the talent to win, and they have a coach who could finally drive his club over the morale cliff. After pretty much kneecapping his goalies with comments for public consumption last year, the “tough love” schtick of John Tortorella might have worn out its welcome. But this is a team that won a Cup in 2003-2004 and still has Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, and Brad Richards. They lost Fredrik Modin and his cannon shot, but added what is likely an upgrade in goal in Marc Denis. He won’t play to the level of Nikolai Khabibulin in the Cup year, but he will play well enough for this club to sneak into eighth, despite their coach.

The Also Rans:

Atlanta . . . They still have forwards who will score in bunches and need a passport to find their own end. They will, however, have added a big hitter on the blue line in Vitaly Vishnevski. They also will have added some better penalty killing in Steve Rucchin and Niko Kapanen. But in the end, making the playoffs depends on whether goaltender Kari Lehtonen can: a) play to his considerable potential, and b) do it for 60 games. He might be a year away from being that kind of centerpiece.

Boston . . . It’s nice to have added the Tyrannosaurus Rex of defensemen in Zdeno Chara, but is this the age of the velociraptor? Brad Stuart and Paul Mara are an upgrade on the blue line, and Marc Savard will – if sufficiently motivated – be an effective distributor from the center position. But, two things are of concern here – first, do they have enough pop on the wings? Glenn Murray has gone 42-34-24 in goals over the last three seasons. Second, is Hannu Toivonen the answer to the Bruins’ needs in goal? They’ll be better, but that’s not saying they’ll be good enough.

Toronto . . . Ever read Great Expectations by Charles Dickens? Remember Miss Havisham, the old woman with white hair, dressed in white satins, laces and silks, wearing a long white veil with bridal flowers in her hair? That’s the Maple Leafs – expecting a marriage that never comes – theirs to a Stanley Cup. Isn’t happening this year, either. Failing to make the playoffs stripped away some of the delusions that always seem to accompany this team – like, their being a contender – and it makes for a more honest appraisal. They’re not especially mobile on defense (but probably better than last year), they lack a go-to goal scorer (they probably will not have a 30-goal scorer this year), and Andrew Raycroft has a lot of questions to answer, most notably, was his rookie year a fluke?

Washington . . . If it can be said that a team finishing 14^th in the Conference with 70 points was an “overachieving” team, the Caps were it last year. Starting the year by looking at an epically bad finish in the face, they managed 29 wins overall and went 7-3-3 in their last 13 games, including only one regulation loss to Carolina in five games. This club is better. Alexander Semin should score more goals by the end of October than his counterpart to start last year – Jeff Friesen – scored all year. Brian Pothier is an upgrade over Mathieu Biron. Alex Ovechkin is still on the roster. The big question for this club is whether the years Matt Pettinger, Chris Clark, and Brian Sutherby had are career years or stepping stones to better things. If it is the latter, 12^th is a safe bet as some of the kids from last year’s Calder Cup Hershey Bears are eased into the lineup or get a taste of NHL action.

Florida . . . I’m sorry, you don’t ship out the best puck stopping goaltender in the game and replace him with Alex Auld and “Billion Dollar” Belfour and expect things to improve. Sure, in the NHL these days, that could happen, but it wouldn’t be the way to bet. Adding Todd Bertuzzi is adding a name, but it’s also adding a “goal scorer” with 42 goals in his last 152 games. The Panthers flirted with a playoff spot late last season. They won’t get that close this year. They are not as good as last year’s team.

Pittsburgh . . . You look at their youth – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Ryan Whitney, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jordan Stall – top five picks in each of the last five drafts – and you would think, “this is a club with a future.” Really? Maybe, but the present is a problem. Crosby’s rookie year was transcendent. After that . . . Malkin hasn’t played a game in anger yet and is starting the year hurt. Whitney was shipped to Wilkes-Barre last spring for what was presumably a long playoff run and came up small. Fleury, ditto, and there were rumblings he might get sent to Wilkes-Barre to start this year (Dany Sabourin was sent down, then claimed off waivers by Vancouver). Staal is a candidate to be shipped back to juniors after a short cup-o’-coffee with the big club. The rest? Well, Sergei Gonchar is a chronic slow starter, John LeClair and Mark Recchi are old. The defense scares no one. That leaves, what, Colby Armstrong? They’ll be marginally better and a bit more of a pain to play against, but they won’t be confused with “good.”

New York Islanders . . . well, where does one start? Making your backup goalie the GM? Giving the starting goalie a 15 year deal? Management by committee? A head coach who has been a decade out of the NHL after leaving his last job under ugly circumstances? A chronic underachiever working on his own 10-year deal? All that’s left is for this team to finish 30^th in the league and lose the lottery for the first overall draft position.

The West:

The Division Champs:

Nashville Predators . . . this is a team that was built, not bought. A good mix of draft picks and trades, with some free agents sprinkled in. An appropriate balance of veterans and young guys. They got bigger with Jason Arnott and Josef Vasicek, but they still have a fine skating team. They might not be as good a team as Anaheim at the end of the regular season, but they will probably have a better time in their division than the Ducks will have in theirs.

Anaheim Ducks . . . Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger start the year as the top pair of defensemen in the league. On paper, there probably isn’t a pair that’s all that close. And, they should eat minutes. They will probably not have a dominating scorer outside of Teemu Selanne, but they will have enough so that they can ease some young guys like Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry into bigger roles. Jean Sebastien Giguere might not be the goaltender he was during the Ducks march to the Stanley Cup finals a few seasons ago, but he and Ilya Bryzgalov will be a formidable duo for as long as they both wear Ducks sweaters.

Calgary Flames . . . they should emerge from the most competitive division on the strength of the unflappable Miikka Kiprusoff in goal. Jarome Iginla and Dion Phaneuf will challenge for trophy consideration this year. But more to the point, this is a team – talented as it is – that is more than the sum of its parts, and it is a difficult team to play against. Last year, they played with a thin margin for error, their offense lagging behind their defense. Alex Tanguay should improve that situation.

The Rest of the Playoff Seeds:

San Jose . . . another club that looks like more than the sum of its parts. It is tempting to say that Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo can’t duplicate their results from last year. Well, why not? Thornton is 27, Cheechoo is 26. They are just reaching their prime. The dark cloud on the horizon here is an unsettled goaltending situation. Evgeni Nabokov lost his job in the playoffs to Vesa Toskala last spring. That will be a situation to watch as the season unfolds.

Vancouver . . . Last year was a disappointment, sliding all the way out of the playoff race. Adding Roberto Luongo is a huge upgrade for this club. That alone could mean the six standings points between where the Canucks finished last year and fifth place, where we have them pegged this time around. They lost Todd Bertuzzi, but that’s probably a plus for both player and club. The one thing this club, more than most others, can’t afford is an injury, particularly on the blue line, where the talent drops off quite a bit past the top three.

Detroit . . . It seems folks either count the Wings as still an elite team, or they see the end of the run. I think it’s somewhere in between. Losing Steve Yzerman to retirement is big. But it’s not as if he didn’t leave a bunch of veterans who know how to play the game, either. This club remains deep, despite losing Brendan Shanahan to free agency. They should be tougher to play against with the addition of Danny Markov. But they are a groin injury – to Dominik Hasek – from being in deep trouble. And that’s the problem. He’s played 224 of a possible 410 games the last five years, only a combined 57 games the last two years.

Dallas . . . They added Eric Lindros and checking center Jeff Halpern, but this team has the look of age to it, and in this league that isn’t necessarily a compliment. Ten players will be 33 or older on this roster, including their likely top four defensemen. Add to that the fact that the Stars lost a substantial amount of offense in Jason Arnott and Bill Guerin (despite what must be considered a disappointing season for Guerin last year), and it spells a drop in the standings.

Minnesota . . . Team Snooze might be poised to show their fans some flash this year. Adding Pavol Demitra could be the tonic that allows Marian Gaborik to have a truly breakout season, as if 38 goals last season wasn’t enough. The other additions – players such as Kim Johnsson, Keith Carney, and Mark Parrish look to have been made with playoffs in mind – solid vets with experience. They should improve significantly on their 28 one-goal losses.

The Also-Rans:

Columbus . . . After watching Marc Denis being shelled to within an inch of his life over the past several years, having Pascal Leclaire take over will be among the interesting stories here. It could be especially interesting in that there is really little behind him if he goes down. The offense should benefit from the addition of a Fredrik Modin to a group that includes Rick Nash, Nikolai Zherdev, and Sergei Fedorov, as well as promising rookie Gilbert Brule. The defense, however, is thin, and this will be the club’s downfall.

Colorado . . . the end is near for the perennial Cup contending favorites. Patrick Roy retired a couple of seasons ago. Peter Forsberg is in South Philly. Rob Blake and Alex Tanguay are gone now. Joe Sakic – one of the true warriors in the sport – is 37. They are very thin on the left side, a situation made worse by the medical retirement of Steve Konowalchuk. The situation isn’t a lot better at center once one gets past Joe Sakic. Add to that the fact that no reasonable person can predict with any certainty which Jose Theodore will show up, and it points to a disappointing season in Denver.

Edmonton . . . One should not lose sight of the fact that despite taking the Stanley Cup final to a seventh game last year, Edmonton finished eighth in the West. Losing Chris Pronger from that squad won’t help. The forwards come back largely intact, and Joffrey Lupul is added from the Pronger deal. But the Oilers were a middle of the pack offense last year (tied for 13^th in goals). Dwayne Roloson stabilized the goaltending situation when he was acquired last year, but whether a soon-to-be 37 year old goaltender is the full-season, long-term answer is a lingering question.

Los Angeles . . . Their special teams were awful last year. How bad? 28^th on the power play, dead last in penalty killing. Will special teams get better? Rob Blake is about to turn 37, Aaron Miller has a history of back problems, and the rest of the defense looks thin, especially after moving Tim Gleason for the rights to Jack Johnson. Only a big rookie year from Patrick O’Sullivan is going to keep this bunch from sliding down the standings this year.

Phoenix . . . This is a team with a split personality. The defense looks as if it could be a fairly deep and effective unit. The offense looks like a collection of parts thrown together – Jeremy Roenick, Owen Nolan, Georges Laraque. Frankly, I don’t know where the goals are going to come from on a consistent basis. Add to that a 39-year old goalie in Curtis Joseph, plus playing in a division with heavyweights San Jose and Anaheim, and it’s hard to see where the Coyotes make all that much progress.

St. Louis . . . They will not finish 30^th. They won’t even finish 15^th in the Conference. That has to be taken as progress. In a way, they are marking time with the likes of Manny Legace, Keith Tkachuk and Martin Rucinsky on their roster, but the club has assembled a group of veterans that will not embarrass themselves on a nightly basis. The trouble is that the veteran forwards are likely well past their most productive years. The defense could be decent, certainly much better than last year. Goaltending is an uncertain commodity with Many Legace – run out of Detroit after a fine regular season but a dismal playoff -- and Curtis Sanford, for whom the question becomes, “does he have what it takes to make the jump to a solid number one goalie?”

Chicago . . . the worst run franchise in the NHL not playing home games on Long Island. Last year, they were slow and didn’t make up for it with skill or hockey sense. From this squad, the two top goal scorers – Kyle Calder and Mark Bell – are gone, but there is Martin Havlat. If Nikolai Khabibulin can get back to his level of performance in his Cup year in Tampa, this club avoids the lottery. But, that’s not the way to bet.

Now, how will the playoffs play out?

East:

Conference Quarters:

Buffalo over Tampa Bay
New Jersey over Montreal
Carolina over Philadelphia
Ottawa over New York Rangers

Conference Semis:

Buffalo over Ottawa
New Jersey over Carolina

Conference Finals:

Buffalo over New Jersey

West:

Conference Quarters:

Nashville over Minnesota
Anaheim over Dallas
Calgary over Detroit
San Jose over Vancouver

Conference Semis:

San Jose over Nashville
Anaheim over Calgary

Conference Finals:

Anaheim over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals:

Anaheim over Buffalo