Clothes Make the Team

The NHL is rolling out its new take on player uniforms as part of its all-star celebration.

Feh . . .

Thanks to sfischer over on the Caps' official discussion boards, who found this tidbit from a Hurricanes' blogger, we can offer up our own humble proposal for the essentials of a Caps uniform . . .








Beats the crap outta this . . .


(Reebok/CCM Hockey)

Oh, to be a Flyer Fan, Now That Winter is Here . . .

0-8-1 at home since their last win at Wachovia Center . . . last November 24th . . . Black Friday.

When does spring training start for the Phillies?

Your fun Alexander Semin stat for January 19th...

...in his last 82 NHL games, Semin has 35 goals.

For second year guys not named




or



. . . that's pretty darned good.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Hurricanes

A two point night! . . .




. . .and that’s why Olaf Kolzig is important to this team.

A disappointing road trip . . . three straight losses . . . finishing up against the defending Stanley Cup champs . . . in their building . . . and they haven’t lost a game in regulation to a division opponent in more than two months (9-0-1).

So what do the Caps get? A 34-save performance, including 13 in the third period, when Carolina was trying to mount a furious comeback.


(AP Photo/Stan Gilliland)

It was a closer game than the final score would indicate, surely. Two empty net goals in the last minute will do that. In the first 59 minutes, though, there was a weeks worth of odd bounces, some benefiting the Caps, some not.

There was David Tanabe suffering a moment of brain lock (ooh, look at the pretty butterfly . . . ) trying to knock down a puck that was headed from Chris Clark’s stick to the far left wing corner. Well, that’s where goalie John Grahame thought it was going, so he wandered off the reservation to try to corral it. But thanks to Tanabe’s trying to use his stick like a butterfly net, the puck was redirected just past the stick blade of the diving Grahame and into the Hurricane net.

Clark managed a second goal – scored as an one of the “empty net” variety – but it’s hard to adopt that characterization (yes, The Peerless understands the scoring rule here) when the puck caromed into the Hurricane net off a sliding Carolina defender.

In-between, there was Alexander Semin, who scored two mighty spiffy goals – one of them four seconds into a power play when Dainius Zubrus won a draw in the Carolina end, and Semin sccoped up the puck, danced between two Carolina defenders as if they were extras in Madame Tussaud’s Wax Museum, and snapped a shot over Grahame, who waved wanly at the puck as if saying farewell to an old friend (hey, that Acme School of Goodly Writing is coming in handy!).

Semin’s second goal was a similar thing of beauty as he took a nice stretch feed from Donald “Wayne” Brashear, flipped the puck to his forehand, and in one motion snapped the biscuit just under the crossbar. It would be interesting (meaning: “I’m too lazy to do the leg work”) to see just how many of Semin’s goals were scored above the goalie’s shoulders this year. More than any Cap, he seems to have a knack for scoring high.



(AP Photo/Stan Gilliland)


Looking at the other side of the scoreboard, it would be difficult to find much fault with either of the ‘Canes’ goals. Steve Eminger actually had inside position on Erik Cole when a puck was sent toward the Cap net from the other side of the ice. Kolzig managed to get a piece of it, but it flipped over him to the other side of the net, and Cole did what scorers do – he snapped around and timed his backhand swipe at the puck perfectly to deposit it into the empty half of the Caps’ net. The second goal was the product of a deflection off the shaft of a stick from far in front of the net. Kolzig seemed to be tracking the slap shot taken on the play, but the redirect sailed over his right shoulder.

The Caps played with energy last night – something that has been strangely missing from their game in the last two outings, especially. 17 shots in the first period and a whopping 33 hits credited for the game (maybe it was the scorer – he had the ‘Canes with 34 . . . there isn’t that much hitting in a Jermain Taylor fight).

And let’s have some huzzahs for Jeff Schultz. Almost 19 minutes of play, pressed into emergency service as a result of injuries, and he acquitted himself well – no Carolina goals were scored on his watch, and that’s always a good thing for a defenseman. One can look up and down the Cap lineup and find nice performances . . . Shaone Morrisonn: 5 hits and a +2 . . . Steve Eminger: 4 hits, a couple of blocked shots, and a +2 . . . Alex Ovechkin: 5 hits, 6 shots, an empty-netter, and a +2 . . . Ben Clymer: might have had a -1 for the night, but he had five shots to set the tone in the first period and had four hits to go along with it . . . Chris Clark: a +3 to go with his pair of goals . . . and of course, Kolzig being the sturdy rock in the nets with 34 saves on 36 shots. It was among his best performances of the year, given the opponent and the circumstances.

The Caps took a good team playing well and stuffed them in their own building. That’s a glimpse of what this team can be. They are not good enough or experienced enough, yet, to do that every night. They can be. Now, let’s see if they can work on consistency Saturday afternoon on “Payback Saturday” against the Panthers.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, January 18th

Another day, another opportunity.

It doesn’t get any easier, either. Tonight’s opponent – the Carolina Hurricanes – are 4-0-1 in their last five games. There is a lot of that going on lately . . . recent opponents are clubs that have playoff aspirations, and they’re starting to play up to that.

Special teams have carried the day for the Hurricanes in this five-game set. The power play has converted seven of 29 opportunities (24.1 percent), scoring two power play goals in three of the five games. It was the one game in which the Hurricanes failed to register a power play goal that serves to blemish their five-game record (a 4-3 shootout loss to Atlanta). The penalty killers have killed off 19 of 22 man-short situations (86.4 percent).

As one would expect, the five-game surge has been fueled by contributions from Carolina’s scorers:

Erik Cole: 4-4-8, +5
Ray Whitney: 2-5-7, +2
Rod Brind’Amour: 0-7-7, +3
Eric Staal: 2-3-5, +1
Justin Williams: 4-1-5, even

In 177 career man-games, this quintet is 70-81-151 against the Caps.

Cam Ward would appear to be the choice in goal tonight (he backstopped John Grahame in the Hurricanes’ last outing). Ward is playing to a high level himself – 7-3-1, 2.22, .931 in his last 12 games. Having picked up four points on first-place Atlanta over the last five games, the ‘Canes are humming right along.

On the other hand, the wheels are coming of the Caps’ little red wagon – literally. Mike Green is sidelined, as reported by Tarik El-Bashir this morning, after taking a puck off the left foot Tuesday night in Ottawa. George McPhee characterized is as “a little more than day-to-day.” That, kids, is McPheese for “can you say, Barbaro?” Green’s injury means that the Caps have a yard of defensemen – three feet – on the shelf. “Yard?” “Three feet?” Three guys with injured feet? I kill me this early in the morning.

Not coincidentally, the Caps have seen their defensive statistics plummet since John Erskine, Bryan Muir, and now Mike Green have taken one in the boot. Okay, who ever thought the loss of Erskine or Muir would be cause for concern? It is a commentary on the state of the Caps, Caps fans, and even the odd (very odd, Peerless) blogger that such a statement could be contemplated. Nevertheless, since the Caps started down this path with Erskine’s injury against the Flyers on December 16th, the Caps are 4-10-0 and have given up a whopping 52 goals in those 14 games (3.71/game). They’ve also yielded 17 power play goals in that span in 63 shorthanded situations . . . 73.0 percent. For the casual hockey fan, that statistic can be described as “yeesh.” You might keep this in mind, along with Carolina’s 24.1 percent pwer play conversion rate in their last five games, when viewing tonight. If the Caps are going to turn this pig around, it’s going to have to be through reversing their recent penalty killing trend and snuffing out Carolina’s power play. Even though Mike Green does not log much ice time killing penalties, the mounting injuries are no doubt going to mess with Glen Hanlon’s mind in coming up with pairings, which can’t be a good thing for the defense.

Another word for “challenge” is “opportunity.” I learned that in some goofy management class, somewhere. What the Caps need is more this . . .

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

. . . and less this . . .

(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

. . . so Caps fans can . . .



Caps 4 – Hurricanes 3.

Semantics

The Caps being mired in a slump of late – losers of ten of their last 14 games – one might be tempted to start looking at the roster before us and saying, “ya know?...they’re bad.”

I would not use that characterization.

What the Caps are is “inconsistent.” If you look back over a schedule that finds the Caps 19-20-7 this morning, you’ll find that they’ve had points-earned streaks of five games, four games (twice), and three games (twice). On the other side, they’ve had streaks of games lost in regulation of five games and three games (twice, including currently).

The Peerless doesn’t really understand why this is so surprising. The Caps top goal scorers are 21 years old and 22, respectively – both in their second full year of NHL play. They have three defensemen – Shaone Morrisonn, Mike Green, and Steve Eminger – with fewer than 400 combined games at the sport’s hardest position. Throw in a Brooks Laich, a Jakub Klepis, or a Boyd Gordon, and you’re talking about players, none of whom have two full years of NHL experience.

Part of the Caps’ problem is how they got here. On December 16th the Caps had just knocked off the hapless Flyers and stood at 15-10-7. Merry freakin’ Christmas, could the playoffs be far behind? Well, then the problems of the holidays and all that nonsense (remember, these are people with lives, too), and the grind of the winter schedule, not to mention some inopportune injuries to defensemen conspired to put the Caps behind the eight-ball.

There is a difference between playing badly and being “bad,” a difference between being inconsistent and being “bad.” The Caps have lacked consistency all year, and right how they are playing “badly.” But, they are not “bad.”

Now the Flyers? . . . They’re bad.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Senators

No points, tonight, folks.



Getting to be a tired refrain, isn’t it? Tonight's 5-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators makes that three in a row, eight of their last 11, ten of their last 14. As each one is heaped on the last, playoffs are becoming more a wish than an expectation.

Tonight, it was the Ottawa Senators showing why they have been Stanley Cup contenders (well, at least until the playoffs actually start) and the Caps can only see that in their future. To their credit, the Caps played a smart, under control game for the first 15 minutes or so of the game. Then, an odd thing happened. Andrej Meszaros scored a goal from 55 feet out. It was the kind of iffy goal that can have a depressing effect on a young, struggling team, and that’s pretty much the effect it had. Mike Comrie scored a couple of minutes later – in the last minute of the period – and this could have just flattened the Caps.

Then, an odder thing happened. Chris Clark picked up the puck and scooted down the left side in the dying seconds of the period. Looking pass, he snapped the puck far side past goalie Ray Emery and off the post for a goal with 2.3 ticks left in the period. It was the kind of goal that could turn the momentum of a game.

Ottawa didn’t even blink.

The Senators just played a patient game through the first half of the second period, and when an opportunity presented itself, they were quick to convert it. An odd bounce off the end boards behind Brent Johnson ended up on the stick of Daniel Alfredsson just to the left of Johnson at the post. Alfredsson snuck the puck between Johnson’s glove and the post, and Ottawa had their two-goal lead once more. Mike Comrie scored a minute later, and the Caps were bleeding all over the ice again. The rest of the game was mere details.

The Senators handled adversity calmly, patiently. The Caps handled it like, well, kids – panicky and without confidence. The latter is the story of the Caps lately. And that kind of behavior shows up in neon lights on the scoresheet – 17 goals allowed in their last three games, 40 in their last 11 (of which they’ve lost those eight), and 51 in their last 14 (in which they are 4-10-0).

If you look at the standings in the East, there are the first hints of some separation in the standings. Tampa Bay (currently 8th) came into tonight’s play with a four-point lead on three teams tied for ninth. The Caps are on the wrong side of that divide – five points behind the Lightning starting play tonight -- and you get the first sense that the season could be slipping away. And, one can see some frustration starting to creep in (it sure seemed that way with Alex Ovechkin, who has “only” three goals in his last ten games and took an unnecessary shove at Dany Heatley as the latter was going off on a shift change). The Caps did not play altogether that poorly tonight. They played just poorly enough to be on the wrong side of every meaningful play and every odd bounce. Ottawa converted those opportunities . . . the Senators had a few more shots, a couple more takeaways, some more blocked shots, won a few more faceoffs. In no single aspect of the game did Ottawa truly dominate – except on the scoreboard, where it actually matters. And that’s the difference between a club that has skill and experience and a club that is lacking in both. You think maybe you’re not playing that badly, and all of a sudden, you’re on the wrong end of a 4-1 score barely ten minutes into the second period.

The Caps are at a critical juncture of their season right now. As unsuccessful as their last month has been, the risk now is that the bottom falls out of the rest of their season. That’s a test of fortitude as much as skill. Players and a team can have their character tempered under such situations; it’s part of learning how to win. Ten years ago, a young Daniel Alfredsson and Wade Redden were going through it with the Ottawa team the Caps fell to tonight. Hopefully, ten years from now Caps fans will look back on nights like this – all too frequent these days – as part of what building a lasting competitor was all about.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, January 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

When the Capitals visit Scotiabank Place to take on the Ottawa Senators, the thought that will come to mind is, “reversal of fortune.” When Ottawa slunk away after taking a 6-2 spanking from the Caps on December 6^th, they did so with a 15-13-1 record, and folks were asking, “what’s happened to Ottawa?”

Well, over the 18 games since, the Senators are 11-6-1, not to mention 9-1-1 in their last 11. Meanwhile, the Caps – for whom that Senator game might have been the high point of the season – are 7-10-1 since that win over Ottawa.

In most respects, the “before and after” that December 6^th game aren’t that remarkably different for the Senators:

Goals for…before: 3.48/after: 3.33
Goals against…before: 2.94/after: 2.79
Power play…before: 16.6%/after: 22.7%
Penalty kill…before: 84.8%/after: 80.7%

But over their last 11 games . . .

Goals for…4.27
Goals against…2.18
Power play…25.0%
Penalty kill…90.2%

And, their big guns have boomed to life over the last 11 games. Dany Heatley is 8-12-20, +16 (that is not a misprint…+16). Daniel Alfredsson is 8-12-20, +12 (that’s not a misprint, either). Both Heatley and Alfredsson are better than a point-per-game over the course of their respective careers against the Caps. Even Chris Kelly, who The Peerless wagers maybe one Cap fan in 50 has actually heard of, is 5-10-15, +11 over the last 11 games (nope, no misprint there). They’ve been explosive, too -- in seven periods of hockey in these last 11 games they’ve scored at least three goals. At the moment, it is the Ottawa offense with which fans have become accustomed.

But it isn’t as if Ottawa is doing it just by ramming the puck down opponents’ throats. With only 24 goals allowed in their last 11 games, they’ve been stingy, too. And consistent -- only once have they yielded more than three goals in a game in this run (they won), and they have two shutouts, both by Ray Emery, who is 7-1-1 in his last nine decisions, 2.21, .926.

If there is one Senator who has struggled – and continues to – it is Andrej Meszaros. Last year, as a rookie, Meszaros was 10-29-39, +34. He is 5-19-24, -11 this year, and even in this latest run of Ottawa success is only 1-4-5, +1.

The key here for the Caps is to avoid precisely the thing to which they are vulnerable – allowing goals in bunches. In 18 games since last meeting Ottawa, the Caps have had 14 games in which they’ve allowed at least one multiple-goal period. They are 3-11-1 in those games (two of the wins were against Philadelphia; we’ll leave it the reader as to whether they should count). That they would lose such a large percentage of such games is hardly surprising, but the large number of games in which it occurred suggests a defensive slump.

And, of course, there is the matter of scoring first. Since the last Ottawa game the Caps are 4-1-1 when scoring first, 3-9-0 when giving up the first goal.

All this merely serves to explain the obvious – the Caps can’t let Ottawa get off to a fast start, and if the home team does score first, the Caps have to find a way to stop the bleeding right away. Ottawa is in a groove that could spell serious trouble right out of the gate for the Caps.

But hey, there is a silver lining here, and it wears a number “1.” Brent Johnson -- likely to get this start -- is 3-0-0, 0.91, .972 in four games against the Senators over his career. The Caps could use that kind of performance to right their own ship and perhaps start a run of their own.

As you might imagine, it says here that this is precisely what will happen...

Caps 3 – Senators 2.

Progress?

The 45th Game…

On January 14, 2004, the Caps tied Calgary, 3-3, in their 45th game of the season. The outcome isn’t as important as who was responsible. It speaks to where the Caps are through 45 games this year. If one looks at the roster that took the ice that night and compares it to the rosters that took the ice in the 45th games of the following seasons (a 5-4 shootout win against St. Louis in 2005-2006, and a 7-3 loss to Florida last Saturday night), what is remarkable is the turnover:

2003-2004	2005-2006	2006-2007
Forwards:
Bates Battaglia	Matt Bradley	Matt Bradley
Peter Bondra	Alex Ovechkin	Alex Ovechkin
Mike Grier	Brooks Laich	Brooks Laich
Jeff Halpern	Colin Forbes	Kris Beech
Jaromir Jagr	Chris Clark	Chris Clark
Robert Lang	Dainius Zubrus	Dainius Zubrus
Kip Miller	Ben Clymer	Ben Clymer
Matt Pettinger	Matt Pettinger	Matt Pettinger
Trent Whitfield	Brian Sutherby	Brian Sutherby
Stephen Peat	Brian Willsie	Donald Brashear
Darcy Verot	Boyd Gordon	Boyd Gordon
Alexander Semin	Jeff Friesen	Alexander Semin
Defensemen:
Jason Doig	Mathieu Biron	Jamie Heward
Sergei Gonchar	Bryan Muir	Lawrence Nycholat
Brendan Witt	Brendan Witt	Mike Green
Rick Berry	Nolan Yonkman	Steve Eminger
Joel Kwiatlowski	Shaone Morrisonn	Shaone Morrisonn
Todd Rohloff	Ivan Majesky	Brian Pothier
Goalie:
Olaf Kolzig	Olaf Kolzig	Olaf Kolzig
Rastislav Stana	Brent Johnson	Brent Johnson

Of the 20 players taking the ice in that 45th game two seasons ago, only three – Matt Pettinger, Olaf Kolzig, and Alexander Semin (who missed the 2005-2006 season) took the ice on Saturday. The entire defense has been replaced.

The table inserts players in their rough approximations of who replaced whom (there are obvious mismatches of roles because of carryover elsewhere – Brian Willsie for Stephen Peat comes to mind). And what is striking there is the difference between a team “on paper” and the one that takes the ice. If you look at certain positions “on paper” there is a considerable drop off in talent. For example, I don’t know anyone who is likely to take Chris Clark over Jaromir Jagr in a fantasy league. Or Lawrence Nycholat over Sergei Gonchar. But the 2006-2007 team is 13 points better – more than 40 percent – than that 2003-2004 club. There is a “glass half full,” “glass half empty” aspect to that. Sure, the Caps are improved, but they’ve left a lot of points on the ice this year, too.

It’s frustrating – for fans, certainly, but it has to be that way for players, too. One step up, one step back, and the guys are at 45 points in 45 games. But there is a bigger picture here, as well. Through 45 games, the Caps had those 32 points in 2003-2004. Last year, they had 37 points (16-24-5). 45 this year. The improvement has been consistent and significant from year to year, which really is the object of the exercise. And this is a group that has not spent all that much time playing together, especially at this level of play. What the team needs are the factors that make diamonds out of coal – time and pressure. Time to develop that knowledge of one another and the pressure of having to deal with different situations, including emerging expectations among fans of a playoff run . . . soon.

Of Eggs and a Basket

Yesterday, hockey fans were treated to one of the sappiest exhibitions of hero worship it has ever been my experience to witness. One could excuse it if it was the case of a young player looking to one of his NHL heroes as an example for his own play, or even a long-time fan who finally gets to meet his favorite player that he’s watched for years.

But no, this was a fawning of the most inexcusable kind – media covering a game, openly cheering the routine and exaggerating the mundane in a single player’s efforts. And in my mind, it reflects a problem the NHL is creating for itself in what looks for all the world to be blissful ignorance.

Watching and listening to the NBC coverage of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers yesterday, I had to wonder if even Sidney Crosby would have been embarrassed at the praise being spread on him thickly like too-sweet an icing on a birthday cake. Pierre McGuire was especially offensive, but he wasn’t alone. Let me point out, I’m a fan of the Washington Capitals, so the thought of rooting for or even acknowledging the talent of a Penguin comes hard. There are too many bitter playoff memories to sift through. I’m mindful that what follows could be construed as “Crosby-bashing.” It is not meant to be. I happen to like Crosby’s play. I like the edge and determination he brings to his effort; he doesn’t just fall back on his supreme skill, something it would be tempting for a player of his talent to do.

But the increasing oneness with which Crosby and the league are portrayed – that this, as McGuire put it with respect to a goal scored by Mark Recchi yesterday, is “all about Sidney Crosby” – poses what in my mind is a potential problem for the league.

In no other professional team sport in North America have the league in question and their broadcast partners put their eggs into one basket in the manner the NHL and its partners seem to be in the case of Crosby. Baseball sells the timelessness of the game, its rivalries, and its records. Football sells the logos of its respective teams, regardless of which player s might wear them, and the “event” nature of each game. Basketball, which no longer has the icons of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, or Michael Jordan manning the court, seems to have struggled to find a consistent theme.

It is basketball provides possibly the most instructive example of the problem. The NBA was in a state of disrepair in the 1970’s, suffering – fairly or not – an image of a drug-addled league of limited appeal. It was, for lack of a better term, no more than a “niche” sport. Earvin Johnson and Larry Bird entered the league in 1979 and rescued the league from decline. They were succeeded by Michael Jordan, whose unique gifts were just what the NBA needed to achieve new heights. The talents of Commissioner David Stern can’t be underestimated here, either, but the point is that the NBA was able to put a face on its product (or in this case, “faces”).

But the matter isn’t quite that simple, and this is what I think is the problem facing the NHL and the matter of Sidney Crosby. Johnson, Bird, and Jordan were three of the greatest players in the history of the NBA. They largely defined the league for two decades. But despite their respective talents, the quality they had in common was that they won. Had their teams not won 14 titles over a period of 17 seasons in which at least one of them played, none would be revered to the extent they are today, and the league likely never would have returned to the status it enjoys today.

And that is where Mr. Crosby enters. At the moment, to paraphrase McGuire, “it’s all about Sidney Crosby.” Quite a burden for a 19-year old to bear. But he’s been training for it since he was in his early teens, much as Wayne Gretzky did in his early years.

This is different. When Gretzky entered the league, it was a “major” league in name only, and it was before the advent of free agency, multi-million dollar player contracts, billion-dollar network contracts, and the Internet. The manner in which the league, its media partners, and its marketing strategy have invested in the product named “Crosby” has the effect of putting all of their respective eggs into one basket.

It’s quite a gamble, because as we’ve noted, Johnson, Bird and Jordan won . . . often. And, they had help. Michael Jordan never won an NBA championship without Scottie Pippen at his side. Larry Bird had Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish and others. Magic Johnson had Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and James Worthy. Hockey is even less-forgiving to the “star” culture than basketball. Wayne Gretzky had Mark Messier and Jari Kurri, among others, and never won a Cup after leaving Edmonton. Mario Lemieux had Ron Francis, Kevin Stevens, and a young Jaromir Jagr (Jagr, it should be noted, didn’t have that support structure as he matured, and he has no Cups since those early Penguin days). And, hockey puts a premium on the contributions of all players up and down the bench – more so than perhaps any other major team sport.

The Crosby Strategy works only if Crosby wins. But hockey isn’t a “star-centric” sport any more than the other major team sports are or, in this instance, as much as the NHL might want it to be. It is a sport that needs contributions from the unsung, from the player who will put himself in harm’s way in front of the net to be there when the opportunity presents itself to bang home a goal from close range, from the player who will sacrifice himself to get in the way of a 100-mile-an-hour slap shot, from the player who will take a hit for the team to make a play. These are the little plays that make hockey what it is, the kinds that contribute as much to winning as a guy sliding on his knees to deflect the puck into the net and be the subject of highlight clips all over North America.

The NHL has a lot of marketing capital invested in Sidney Crosby. But being supremely skilled isn’t enough. Crosby had that highlight clip goal against Tampa Bay last week when he slid on his knees to convert a pass from Mark Recchi.

The Penguins lost the game. Is there a moral in that?

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Panthers

No points tonight . . .



. . . and a good thing that the league doesn’t subtract points for some performances, too.

The mysterious gas-like odor that settled over Manhattan last week moved into south Florida this evening, and it was shrouded in eagle logos. The Caps were pasted, 7-3, by the Florida Panthers. How bad was it? Let’s go by the numbers . . .

54 . . . No Caps team has ever given up more shots on goal on the road (they gave up 54 in a 7-5 loss to Philadelphia, December 19, 1975).

27 . . . only once in club history has an opponent registered more shots on goal than the 27 the Panthers had in the second period last night (28 on October, 20, 2005 against . . . yup, Florida)

2 . . . last night was the first time in 271 career games that defenseman Jay Bouwmeester scored two goals. He was +4, too.

9 . . . Stephen Weiss had more shots on goal himself than the Caps had in any single period (he had a hat trick for good measure).

17 . . . the Caps registered their fewest number of shots since October 28, 2005 (14, in a 4-2 loss to Tampa Bay).

.878 . . . that was the best save percentage among the three goaltenders playing this game. Congratulations, Olaf Kolzig . . . trouble is, it came on 41 shots (in 40 minutes), and he gave up five goals.

In a way, it was a very odd game. You give up seven goals, you would think certain specific players might have been victimized. Not in this case. No Cap was worse than -2, but 12 of 18 skaters were on the minus side of the ledger. Any argument that this player (Lawrence Nycholat) or that player (Brian Sutherby) was especially poor in this game really doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. That’s not to say they played well – they didn’t. It’s just that the whole team didn’t bother to show up. If anything, Olaf Kolzig was the best Cap on the ice (talk about damning with faint praise…). Goalies have to make the first stop, and Kolzig sure did make a lot of those. But the Caps never put themselves in a position to clear away the trash. Too many defensemen gave away position or were facing in the wrong direction; too many forwards just didn’t put in the effort to support the defense. Kolzig was left to fend for himself to the tune of better than a shot on goal per minute. If one totals the shots on goal, missed shots, and shots blocked by the Caps, the sum – 80 – is a reflection of the effort put forth by the Caps last night.

OK, enough of that . . . no, really . . . enough, already. This is the kind of thing that happens from time to time to a young team still feeling its way along. From my seat, the fear was that in the stretch of games between the holidays and the All-Star break, the Caps would have their mettle tested, not so much in terms of their skill, but in their ability to focus and put forth a consistent effort from night to night. That stretch is the dark void of the schedule – too early to focus attention on a playoff push, and the novelty of the beginning of the season has worn off. These are the games that a club has to grind out. At the moment, the Caps are somewhat lacking in their performance, and it is showing up on defense – 37 goals allowed in the 10 games since Christmas.

Had the Caps won this game, it would not have been unexpected or surprising. That’s what we said in the gameday. Well, losing isn’t necessarily surprising, either. Not when one considers that this is still a team lacking experience. But at the moment, what comes to mind watching this team is an exchange in the movie, “Bull Durham,” between Manager Joe “Skip” Riggins (Trey Wilson) and coach Larry Hockett (Robert Wuhl) in the midst of a losing streak. You know the one . . .

Skip: You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

Larry: Lollygaggers!

Skip: Lollygaggers.

Geez, Donald...do we really suck that bad out there?

(Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images)

Happy Hockey Day!!!

It's "Hockey Day in Canada" . . . something that can, and should be celebrated by fans all over North America.

Montreal at Ottawa
Vancouver at Toronto
Edmonton at Calgary

Those are the headliners for the day's festivities, but there are 11 other contests today and tonight, including the return of the NHL on NBC. But celebrate this great sport in your own way . . .

-- Wear a helmet to the 7-11 when you get your morning coffee
-- Ask everyone you meet, "nice day, eh?"
-- Tell the wife and kids, "No oh-fense, but I'm going oot for a six-pack of Labatt's so I can watch 'Hockey Day in Canada'."
-- Throw open the window and shout to no one in particular, "Bobby GOOOOOOOOOOOOOULD!!!"

It's Hockey Day . . . have a great one!

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, January 13th

Tipping point…

That is a term that refers to the point in time at which something unique becomes commonplace. Here, it refers to a hockey team that takes its place among those in the upper echelon that can skate into an opponent’s building – an inferior opponent in this case – and skate off with a win, and not have it considered extraordinary.

That’s when a team that has struggled can be thought of as having taken the next step toward competitiveness.

The Caps find themselves in that position tonight, where most of the factors would appear in their favor as they visit the Florida Panthers . . .

-- They have a four-point lead in the standings and two games in hand
-- They face a team that has won only two of 14 games within the division this year
-- They’ve won three of their last four; Florida is 1-2-2 in their last five
-- They’ve won the previous two contests this year by a combined 9-3 margin
-- Washington comes into the game with two hot players – Alexander Semin is 7-2-9 in his last four games, Alexander Ovechkin is 3-8-11 in his last five.
-- Washington is 8-8-4 on the road this year, a far cry from last year’s 13-23-5.
-- Florida will be facing a resurgent Capitals offense without one of their top defenders; Branislav Mezei is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury

A win would be neither unexpected, nor surprising.

Of course, there is an opponent – one that on their home ice requires respect. Florida has a hot player of their own. Olli Jokinen has five goals in his last two games, including a hat trick in the face of some kid from Nova Scotia (shown here in an earlier contest about to execute an inward one-and-half with a twist) last Wednesday. It constitutes an awakening from something of a season-long slumber for Jokinen, who managed 16 goals in his first 44 games. A respectable total, but not necessarily outstanding.

In Florida’s 1-2-2 stretch over their last five games, they’ve managed six goals from Jokinen and 11 from the rest of the club. What they’ve managed is balance (to put the best spin on it). Those 11 goals were scored by ten different players, Rostislav Olesz the only player with two. The problem has been more at the other end of the ice, where the Panthers have yielded 20 goals in their last five games, including six in 13 shots (one an empty netter) in a disaster of a third period in their last game, a 6-4 loss to Carolina.

Florida’s special teams in the last five games have been good and bad. The good? They’ve killed 20 of 23 shorthanded situations (87.0 percent) and had a shorthanded goal that allowed them to steal a point in Vancouver. The bad? Their power play was unremarkable at 17.7 percent. The key was that the Panthers found themselves shorthanded six more times than their opponents. Overall, though, the problems Florida is having are matters of even-strength play.

The oddest numbers in all of those compiled by Florida in the last five games involves their scoring by period. Of the 17 goals they’ve scored, 10 were scored in the third period. Of the 20 they’ve given up, 13 were given up in the third period (including those six by Carolina). Stay tuned . . . the third period could be very entertaining tonight, if fire wagon hockey is your thing.

Florida is the very picture of mediocrity on home ice, statistically . . . 14th in goals scored, 17th in goals against, 14th in power play conversions, 18th in penalty killing. However, they are 11-8-2 at home, 4-0-1 in their last five home contests.

This is a club that can rise up and bite a visitor right in the Koho.

On the other side of the ice, the Caps’ 3-1-0 run in their last four included outscoring their opponents 18-10. That five of those ten in the last game (against Tampa) was a reflection of uninspired defense and attention in their own zone, as well as an off-night from Olaf Kolzig in goal (one would expect Brent Johnson to get an opportunity this evening, especially in light of his 4-2-0, 1.65, .946 career record against Florida). What was especially odd – and reflective of the inattentiveness to their own end – was that the Tampa game was the only one in the last four in which the Caps did not yield a power play goal.

The Caps’ power play came to life in the last four – 5 for 19 (26.3 percent) – three of the goals coming from the stick of Alexander Semin. The Caps have at least one power play marker in each of the games in this 3-1-0 stretch.

If there are players to watch, The Peerless would pay some attention to . . .

-- Nathan Horton. He has only one goal and three points in his last seven games. Olli Jokinen has carried the mail for the Panthers lately and could use some help. Watch to see if Horton steps up.

-- Dainius Zubrus. He’s 11-12-23, +9 in his career against Florida and is 2-1-3 in his two games this year. The Alexes have borne the goal-scoring burden lately (10 of the 18 scored in the last four games), and Zubrus has only four in his last 23 games. But, he gave some indications of emerging from that slump with two against Montreal on January 4th.

The Caps can and should win here. That they will is of no surprise . . .

Caps 4 – Panthers 2

The Tough Decisions Are Arriving . . . Sooner Than We Expected?

In his fine roundup to last night’s game at Japer’s Rink, JP makes an important point:

“ . . . the difference between [the Caps and the Lightning] - $14 million. Without question, the $14m difference in payroll between the squads was the difference tonight. A defenseman (or two), a second-line center or winger - it wouldn't have taken much for this to have been a Caps win rather than a loss. Now that's two straight one-goal losses to Tampa. Three one-goal losses to Atlanta. Eleven one-goal losses on the year. These points get harder and harder to give up knowing that the Caps are simultaneously so close and yet so far away.”

Juxtapose this with what Tarik El-Bashir posted on December 28th in his “Capital Insider” blog in the aftermath of losses to Buffalo and Montreal:

“The Capitals will tell you that they didn't come ready to play against Buffalo. That a couple of defensive zone breakdowns led to Montreal's first two goals.

“And they are right.

“But take a step back and look at the bigger picture. What I saw was two $43 million dollar teams show the Capitals exactly how much an extra $13 million in salaries buys these days.”

In between, there was this from The Man, himself, in his January 9th “Owner’s Corner” column . . .

“Mention of the playoffs leads people to ask if we’re going to “make a move” – as if it were as simple as crossing something off a shopping list. That’s not to dismiss the importance of improving your team when you have the opportunity, and we will do that – if it’s the right opportunity. I know you’ve heard me say this before, but we won’t do it just for the sake of ‘making a move,’ or if it will unduly cost the franchise down the road.

“Could we make a trade? Of course. One of the reasons we stockpiled draft picks and focused on our farm system was to create value. And we’ve been strategic in our approach to the salary cap so that we are not handicapped in that regard, as some other teams are. Simply having room under the cap, however, is not reason to spend it.

“It was written recently, after we lost back-to-back games, that ‘You Get What You Pay For.’ In the NHL nothing could be further from the truth. I don’t want to pick on individual teams, but a quick glance at the standings will prove the fallacy of that headline. Some of the highest payroll teams occupy the bottom of the standings. Trust me, if anyone knows that you don’t always get what you pay for in this business, it’s me.

“There are strategic reasons why we need to manage our payroll now too. In 2003-04 I promised you that we would build a team that you could watch grow. But we aren’t going to be hockey’s Montreal Expos, developing stars to make their marks with other teams. To keep the Ovechkins, Semins, Backstroms and Greens into the prime of their careers, we will need to have flexibility under the salary cap. It’s an important fact of life in the ‘new NHL,’ especially with players eligible for free agency at younger ages.”

The discussion suggests that the Caps are arriving at a critical juncture in their rebuild. Given the dire predictions at the start of the year, one would have to conclude that the Caps are ahead of schedule in their return to competitiveness. You would not have thought when the season started that the Caps would be buyers in any trading market this year.

But now? That’s a hard question to answer. The arguments . . .

As JP points out, the Caps have 11 one-goal losses this year, five of them to Atlanta and Tampa Bay, combined. If the Caps managed to steal an additional point in five of those contests – less than half – they’d be seventh in the conference with 50 points. If they’d managed to steal two of those points from their conference foes (say, one each from Atlanta and Carolina, and denying them a point in the process), the Caps would be just a point behind Carolina and within striking distance of Atlanta (six points down with a game in hand). Could a mid-range salaried center have contributed to such a result? A similarly compensated defenseman? We’re not talking Daniel Briere money or Zdeno Chara money . . . a mid-salary range center, particularly, would likely be an improvement over the revolving door on the second line. The problem, as always, is what do you give up?

There is, though, the longer view as expressed by Ted Leonsis. And this gets into the strategic management of the cap. Right now, Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green (three of the players specifically identified by Leonsis and currently under contract) account for a combined cap hit of $5.967 million. Ovechkin alone would command more than that (and will, when eligible) as a free agent. One could argue that Semin could command, say, Simon Gagne money -- $5.25 million – as a free agent. Green, even if he develops into no more than a 3-4 defender, could command the same $3,000,000 a year Filip Kuba is pulling down with the Lightning. So, for these three players, we could be looking at an outlay of $17.05 million (in 2007 cap dollars) to keep them in the fold. The difference is $11.8 million of the $13 million Tarik El-Bashir spoke of in his commentary. And we’re not even up to Nicklas Backstrom yet.

I’m not advocating a quick-fix/trade during this season any more than I’m advocating keeping the powder dry to see how the kids develop or to test the free agent market next summer. This is why George McPhee has a harder job than fans normally give general managers credit for. What I am saying is that a decision point that was inevitable is arriving sooner than many might have thought – a product of the Caps being ahead of schedule in their development. Does the club start using some of those picks/prospects stockpiled in the sell off as trading assets?

Sports being what they are – difficult to predict in terms of future performance – there are no clear criteria on which to base a decision. That the Caps would have sacrificed points that could cost them a playoff spot this year could end up being equal parts frustrating and heartbreaking for fans. The associated effect of that could be sufficient frustration that some full/partial season ticket holders will not renew, thinking that the club is more serious about not losing money than about winning hockey games.

On the other hand, if the gamble on youth pays off next year or the year after, and a solid foundation is established to compete year after year – a core of players like those Leonsis mentioned with role players being swapped in and out as opportunities arise – then the gamble will likely payoff with more fans in the stands, more money to invest in players, scouting, and infrastructure, and a winning team.

But it is a gamble, and not an insignificant one. It could be no less than a gamble on hockey as we know it in Washington. The Caps invested in high-priced free agents in an effort to establish a “brand” and saw that strategy explode in their faces as losses -- on the ice and on the balance sheet -- and disgruntlement piled up. Then, the Caps tore out the walls right down to the studs to go with a youth movement. If that doesn’t work, what’s Plan C?

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Lightning

No points tonight, Caps fans . . .

And that, dear reader, qualifies as a wasted opportunity. The Caps did precisely what they needed to do against the Tampa Bay Lightning last night…

They needed to keep the Lightning out of man advantage situations, where they scored more than a third of their goals in the previous ten games. They did (Tampa was held scoreless in two opportunities).

They needed to take advantage of the few opportunities they were likely to be presented, given that Tampa had been shorthanded only 33 times in the previous ten games and faced shorthanded situations less often than any team in the league except New Jersey. They did (1-for-2 in their own power play opportunities).

They needed to keep this an even strength game and muster a measure of aggression in the offensive zone to try to keep the “three amigos” – Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards -- off their backs. Well, that’s where the wheels sort of came off . . .

. . . and that was a product of goaltending. It wasn’t one for the scrapbook of one Olaf Kolzig, who permitted five goals on 25 shots. More’s the pity, because he wasn’t necessarily the lesser of the goaltenders playing on this evening (Johan Holmqvist let four pucks elude him on the 22 shots he faced). But he really didn’t give his teammates the chance to win he does on most nights.

The silver lining here is that this was an abnormal night for the veteran netminder. If the Caps play games like this in terms of the performance of their skaters – and this was not an abnormal performance for this year – they will win more than they lose. Alexander Semin had two goals as he quietly marches up the goal-scoring rankings (he is now tied for seventh after potting his 23rd and 24th last night, giving him seven in his last four games). Alexander Ovechkin closed to within four points of Sidney Crosby for the overall scoring lead after getting two assists. Lawrence Nycholat continued his surprising play; he now is 2-5-7, +5 in ten games.

But all that was at the offensive end. At the other end, Kolzig had his troubles, but Brian Pothier had a difficult night (-3), as did Shaone Morrisonn, those being a product of the Lecavalier and St. Louis being a combined 3-2-5, +4 for the night. And that is precisely what the Caps could not allow to happen if they were to win this game.

Washington is now 11th in the conference, but at this point –- with five points separating 7th place from 13th -- it is hardly worth the heartburn of worrying that yesterday they were in the playoff mix and today they’re not. A nice eight or ten game points-earned streak would be nice, but what is likely to happen for the foreseeable future is more of the same tightly bunched jockeying and scratching for every available point.

They could have used one last night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, January 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

Tonight, the Caps return to divisional play with a visit to sunny Florida and dank, dark St. “Pete” Times Forum. Honest . . . “St. Pete” . . . as in the town of “St. Pete.” One had no idea that the Prince of the Apostles was so informal. But hey, things are laid back down there, I guess.

As for tonight’s opponent, the Lightning handed the Caps a 5-4 loss in Washington on December 19th. Since then, the Bolts are 6-4-0 and stand one thin point behind the Caps in the standings, the difference between eighth and ninth place, between being on the inside and on the outside of the potential playoff mix. The Caps also have a game in hand.

Over those ten games Tampa Bay has given as good as they got, scoring 27 goals and allowing the same. One can look at that as a glass half-full or half-empty. The key for Tampa has been winning the special teams battle. Over these ten games the Lightning have outscored their opponents 12-6 (the 12 coming on ten power play and two shorthanded goals). And that is a product of opportunity. Tampa Bay has had 44 man-advantage situations over these ten games to their opponents’ 33. The latter number is somewhat amazing in the modern version of the NHL – 3.3 shorthanded situations per game. It speaks either to discipline or a lot of benefit of the doubt accorded to a recent Stanley Cup champion by the men with whistles. Whether the Caps can draw penalties in this game will be something to watch, as the Lightning’s have a rather pedestrian 81.8 percent penalty kill rate in those 33 shorthanded situations.

Individually, the Lightning have had contributions from the usual suspects – Martin St. Louis has five goals (5-7-12), as does Vincent Lecavalier (5-7-12). But here is the odd part about these two . . . St. Louis, despite 12 points in these ten games is -5, Lecavalier is -4. St. Louis’ numbers are especially odd. Of his five goals, two are power play tallies and two are shorthanded.

The third amigo – Brad Richards – is 1-7-8, -2 in the last ten Lightning contests. While his numbers might seem to lag a bit behind St. Louis and Lecavalier, he’s made contributions as the trigger man on the power play with 1-3-4 with the man advantage over the last ten games.

The man who has really jumped up over these last ten games is defenseman Dan Boyle. He’s 4-7-11, +5 in that stretch, and even accounting for his hat trick against the Rangers on December 23rd, he’s been noteworthy.

Goaltending has been good enough, if not especially outstanding for the Lightning. Johan Holmqvist is 4-3-0, 2.35, .908 since the last time these two teams met. He does, however, show up as the Corey Hirsch character in this year’s highlight goal, scored by some guy from Nova Scotia last week. Marc Denis is 2-1-0 in four appearances since the last game against Washington, 3.02, .887. At the moment, he appears relegated to baseball cap duty.

This isn’t hard to figure out. Tampa has lived and died on its power play over the last ten games – 5-2 when they score at least one goal with the man advantage, 1-2 when they don’t. And the flip side of this is that Tampa has minimized their man disadvantage situations.

If the Caps can mount some consistent level of aggression on offense and force Tampa to draw penalties, the low kill rate Tampa’s had lately could spell trouble for the home team. And, it could enable the Caps to minimize power play advantages for the Lightning.

The Caps can win this game, but they have to play better, with more urgency than they mustered against the Flyers last Tuesday. As you might expect, it says here that they will.

Caps 4 – Lightning 2.

The Peerless Improvement Index

Are the Caps getting better? Well, sports being what they are, there is an easy way to answer that question -- wins and losses. Hockey being the quirky sport that it is, that's really a matter of points.

Which brings me to what you see over there in the right-hand margin -- "The Peerless Improvement Index," or "PI Index." It's quite simple, really. The Caps decided in the 2003-2004 season that all this spending on the likes of Jaromir Jagr, Robert Lang, and the dear departed Kip Miller wasn't working. Further, keeping old hands around like Peter Bondra or Sergei Gonchar wasn't really part of a plan to tear down and rebuild the team. So, the team had what amounted to a sell-off for picks and prospects. The result was perhaps the lowest point in franchise history for Caps fans since that dreadful inaugural season. The Caps finished the 2003-2004 season with a 23-46-10-3 record for a total of 59 points.

Well, we are now a couple of years (with a lockout in-between) removed from that debacle, and it is time to take a look at the progress being made, hence the "index." All it is, is a comparison of this point in time to a comparable point in time from that 2003-2004 season. In today's case, the Caps record over 43 games this season (19-17-7, 45 points) compared to that in the 2003-2004 season (12-26-4-1, 29 points). Expressed as an index, we have a value of 155.17...today's "improvement index." Think of it as your Caps version of the Dow Jones.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Flyers

It was a two-point night, Caps fans.




There is an old saying about baseball . . . there are 40 games you’ll win, no matter what, and there are 40 games you’ll lose, no matter what. It’s what you do with the rest of them that matters.

Well, we’ll leave the matter of the games you lose, no matter what, and the rest of them for another time. This morning, the matter at hand is games you win, no matter what.

The Caps last night faced a beaten team in the Philadelphia Flyers – beaten long before the final 6-2 result was displayed on the scoreboard, one that their own coach implied gave up in their last game against Ottawa. The Flyers also were beat up, missing Peter Forsberg and Joni Pitkanen, not to mention the lingering absences of Mike Rathje, Denis Gauthier, Mike Richards, and Geoff Sanderson. Add to that the fact that both goalies have suffered a variety of ailments this year, and a bad team becomes a sorrowful one. The Caps should have beaten this team, and should have been able to do it sleepwalking.

Lucky for the Caps, that’s pretty much what happened.

Robert Esche played the first shot of the game – one that one normally sees in a skate around – into a goal 15 seconds into the game. Alexander Ovechkin netted a goal six minutes later on the Caps’ third shot after the Flyers coughed up the puck in their own end and failed to pursue the matter with any intensity. When Ovechkin scored, you could see the Flyers collective shoulders visibly slump . . . here we go again. To their credit, they gamely pressed on, but unlike the case in, oh, the last decade or so, it was the Caps who badly outmanned the Flyers in terms of skill and quickness.

But the Caps, who could have applied a knockout in that first period, allowed the Flyers to dominate large stretches of play. Perhaps it was an effort to put on a show of skill for the home folks, perhaps it was just a lack of focus to the duties at hand, but there just didn’t seem to be a sense of urgency in the Caps’ play. Here’s an example of what went on . . . in the 23:21 between the Caps’ second and third goals, spanning parts of the first and second period . . .

Philly outshot the Caps, 19-13
They held the Caps even in face-offs, 15-15
They matched them in hits, 6-6
They protected the puck better, yielding only two giveaways to the Caps’ eight.

But let’s be fair here, too. In an 82-game season, there will be nights like this, and it is as much a testament to the development of the Caps as it is the woefulness of the Flyers that a comparatively pedestrian effort could result in such a lopsided result. Caps fans might be too timid and unsure to admit this, but the fact is, the Caps are better than the Flyers, and they are developing into a pretty good team right now, despite the holiday blues they experienced.

Looking at the numbers coming out of the game, you might not say that the Caps played badly or that any one player did . . . just that the team probably put forth their “B” game. One nice thing to see was Ben Clymer get that 15-seconds-in goal and get a plus-2. He might finally be righting his ship. In his last 11 games, he’s 2-3-5, -1, which isn’t bad for a guy getting about 14 minutes a night over that stretch of games.

And what can one say about Donald Brashear. If there was one Cap who seemed to bring a sense of giddyap last night, it was Brashear, and that’s not just because of his scoring his first goal as a Cap. Five shots on goal? They’ll be calling him “Alex” or “Bravechkin” at practice. Add in two hits and a blocked shot, and it wasn’t a bad night’s work for 12 minutes.

One down note was the absence of Mike Green in the third period. He’d had something of a quiet game through the first 40 minutes, but didn’t play in such a manner than obviously suggested a benching. One fears that he suffered an injury that is sure not to be disclosed as being anything but some sort of “(fill in the blank)-body injury.”

This being the NHL and not the Beauty Contest Sweepstakes of college football, two points is two points. You don’t get extra style points, and with the two they earned last night the Caps find themselves in eighth place in the East with a game in hand on each of their closest pursuers – Tampa Bay and Toronto.

And for those of you following the hijinks of Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, ponder this . . . since December 1st:

Sidney Crosby: 18 games, 11-22-33, +5
Alex Ovechkin: 18 games, 12-20-32, +3

They are now one-two in the scoring race, and both of their clubs are fighting for a spot in the top-eight. It will be a fun 40 game sprint to watch.

Well, well

I had no idea why I blogged until I read Ted Leonsis' latest edition of "Owner's Corner." That's when I read this . . .

"We might not always like what a blogger posts – but we won’t always agree with what the Post writes, either. Just because this is a new type of journalism, however, we aren’t going to shut them off from the access other writers receive. By inviting bloggers to interact with our staff and players, I believe they will gain a perspective that they otherwise could never have.

"Does that mean you can register on blogger.com, or blog on your AIM Page, and get free tickets to Caps games, as well as access to the locker room after the game? Not exactly. As you can see, the criteria that Eric and our staff developed isn’t easy to meet – there has to be a demonstrated audience for your blog, and as I noted before, to gain that you have to be providing something different."

--smack-- Here I thought I did this because I have a long-standing love and respect for the sport, and I try to be a little bit funny (with admittedly mixed results). When all along, I find out I must be doing it to "interact" with the staff and players, score passes to a game, or visit the locker room!

Wow.

Now, I've been in my share of sports locker rooms -- most of it way, way back in high school when I was on the football and wrestling teams. But, I still remember them as crude, smelly places filled with people who take great effort to try to be even more crude and smelly.

I like doing this and while I hope you find otherwise from time to time, I don't hold any delusions that what you'll read here is especially insightful or entertaining. What I have no interest in is a visit to a locker room, a couple of free ducats, or the "Ted Leonsis Good Blogging Seal of Approval."

The criteria you've developed isn't (sic) easy to meet? As far as I'm concerned, you can take your criteria and that full-of-yourself nonsense and pound them where the sun don't shine.

And if I haven't made it clear . . . NO!...I don't want any damned tickets or a pass to the locker room.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flyers, January 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

Tonight, we are brought to you by Quickie, the best in all-purpose brooms.

The Caps face a challenge and an opportunity tonight in their contest with the visiting Philadelphia Flyers. First, they can sweep the season series against their long-time rivals for the first time since . . . well, ever. Second, this is the “getaway” game of the home stand, the last one before the boys embark on a four game road trip. If the boys could get two points to give them six of eight on this home stand, they could find themselves right back in the thick of the mix as they start on their pre-All Star Game push.

Since the last time the Flyers visited Verizon Center on December 16th, they’ve played something like SOS hockey . . . L-L-L-L . . . W-W-W . . . L-L-L. The trouble is, that 3-7-0 record in their those ten games is just about the points pace they’ve put up all year. It is an historically bad year for the Flyers, a pace that would leave them with the worst record in their history (their 51-point pace would eclipse, if that’s the right word, their 58 point effort in 1969-1970 under the steady hand of the legendary Vic Stasiuk).

It’s not as if the Flyers have played well and been unlucky. Look at the numbers over these last ten games . . .

Outscored: 35-25
Power play: 6-47 (12.8 percent)
Penalty kill: 47-56 (83.9 percent . . . ok, that’s decent, but they sure get enough practice)
Outshot: 381-268 . . . good heavens, they’re being outshot by more than 11 shots a game, almost four shots a period! They could wall off the goal with bricks and mortar and still not win games with that kind of performance.

And, for the season . . .

Goals/game for: 29th
Goals/game against: 30th
Power play: 28th
Penalty kill: 7th
Shots/game for: 22nd
Shots/game against: 26th
Winning % when scoring first: T-26th
Winning % when scored upon first: 30th

-- Their top scorer – Simon Gagne – is tied for 72nd
-- They have no . . . NO players who are “plus” for the year with the club (Alexei Zhitnik, who is +5 for the year, is -8 in 11 games since being traded to Philadelphia) . . . no player who has played at least 30 games is better than -5.
-- They’ve been outscored at even strength, 112-66.

They’ve been beaten – often – and beat up (Peter Forsberg has had a plethora of injuries, and their goalies have fought of a variety of ailments).

The Flyers, in a word . . . suck.

And even with all that, the Caps could lose this game . . . why? Several reasons:

Herb Brooks . . . yeah, that one. The one who once said of his team, “you don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone.” And, the Caps don’t. They can beat the best the East has to offer if they bring their “A” game (as they did against Buffalo earlier this year). They can lose to the worst – or close to it – if they don’t (as they did to the Islanders). If the Caps don’t bring their “A” game and the Flyers get a spark early, they could make things needlessly rough on themselves.

Focus . . . this is the getaway game before a road trip. Sometimes, there is just that little hint of looking ahead.

Luck . . . one got the impression last Saturday that Alex Ovechkin and/or Alexander Semin could have had more goals than the three with which they finished the game. Pucks hopped over and past their sticks all night (might have been a result of the effects on the ice of a basketball game played earlier that day). It happens, it’s hockey.

But, there is no reason the Caps should – on paper – lose this game. And, to put it bluntly, any team with any designs on competing for a playoff spot has to jump on a team like this early and stand on their throats, especially a team playing the last game of an eight-game road trip. The Caps are on a bit of a mini-roll after a slump. Alexander Semin has four goals in the last two games, Dainius Zubrus chipped in a pair himself, and Alexander Ovechkin broke a five-game goal scoring slump the last time out. The stars are aligned for a big night for this club.

But nothing is a given.

Caps 6 – Flyers 1.

This is "a" goal...this is a "nice" goal. It is not, "The Goal."

Much as the assembled hockey media is gushing over this fine effort by Sidney Crosby to: a) find the pass from Mark Recchi, and b) redirect the pass into the net past a bewildered Johan Holmqvist, it is not destined to have the label, "the goal" attached to it.

First, it helps if the team for which the player scoring the goal actually wins the game. Second, it just doesn't have the contortive (if that's a word) charm that a guy twisting on his back, not looking at the net, scoring-with-a-flick-of-the-wrist has. Good heavens, the last word in goals didn't even get the player the first, or even the second star of the game in his own arena.

So just stop it. Stop it now, ok?

So, there I was watching a shootout . . .

Did I say that shootouts suck? That they are an abomination against all that is holy about hockey? Well, they are, but that's not the point . . .

I was watching the Penguins gag on their shootout chances this evening against Tampa Bay (the Lighting won on Martin St. Louis' trick shot crap), and it brought to mind the hapless Caps. Among the 29 teams that have participated in shootouts this year (San Jose hasn't so much as been in an overtime yet), the Caps are . . .

- tied for 28th in goals: 1
- 29th in conversion: 7.7 percent
- tied for 22nd in goals allowed (8)
- 29th in save percentage (33.3 percent)
- tied for 25th in wins (0)

That's 0-5 in shootouts this year. As awful as the mere thought of such garbage is, those are five points left on the table. Even getting two of them could spell the difference between an April date on the ice and a choice of tee times at their favorite golf clubs.

Did I mention that I hate the shootout?

b-b-b-b-but . . . I missed the Caps win last night

there, there, lil buddy...

(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

A Tale of Two Russians . . .

Player 1: 38 games, 21-19-40, +3, 10 PPG, 4 GWG, 16.3% shooting percentage, 17:41 avg. TOI
Player 2: 35 games, 19-20-39, -2, 9 PPG, 4 GWG, 15.2% shooting percentage, 20:09 avg. TOI

Player 1 is a 22-year old Russian and gets as much media attention as the prime rib at the buffet at a vegetarian conference
Player 2 is a 20-year old Russian and gets almost as much hockey ink as Paris Hilton gets entertainment ink

Player 1 is Alexander Semin
Player 2 is Evgeni Malkin


. . . Player 1 is one of the best kept secrets in the league

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Thrashers

As if it was a playoff game.

This is really the only rivalry that qualifies for the Caps in the Southeast Division. As goaltender Olaf Kolzig characterizes it, the Thrashers are "a team we hate." While still a pale imitation of what were the rivalries of the old Patrick Division, last night conjured up images of those old days. That the Caps are starting to feel a bit of the urgency of trying to secure a playoff position only added to the drama of what would turn out to be a 3-2 overtime win over the Atlanta Thrashers.

One had the feeling that Atlanta brought more talent into this game than the Caps, but at no point did the Thrashers truly dominate the action. The Capitals might have played their most complete defensive game of the year, holding the Thrashers to single digits in shots in each of the periods (including only one – but what a scary one it was – in the overtime).

There were heroes aplenty, and not just the ones who scored or set up scores . . .

Let’s start with Lawrence Nycholat. Is this guy an emerging story, or what? He led the club in ice time last night (more than 27 minutes), +1, three shots, a couple of hits, three blocked shots, and his was but one of several fine efforts from the blue line.

Or Donald Brashear . . . one doesn’t always need a fight to establish some momentum. He only had 7:45 of ice time, but made the most of his opportunities with a couple of hits and a lot of jump. The Peerless doesn’t remember him skating this well when he was in Philadelphia.

Or Olaf Kolzig . . . it would have been understandable if on this, his King Clancy Trophy tribute night, he wasn’t entirely in focus. But when you’re 36 and have been in 679 regular season and playoff games, you’ve seen most of it, if not all of it. Nothing reflected the kind of effort he had and the kind of player he is than taking J.P. Vigier’s skate to the back of the head, felling him for a couple of minutes as he shook the cobwebs out. Then, while still a bit woozy, he got just enough of the Vigier penalty shot with the inside of his right pad to deflect the puck to the far post and snuff the play. The guy is a linebacker on skates.

Chris Clark . . . was on the ice for each of the Caps’ goals. And he’s not just a bystander when the Alexes do what they do. He was right in the thick of things on the game-winner, drawing a defender to the outside to open up the ice and allow Steve Eminger to come through the middle and take the pass that would then become the behind-the-back feed on highlight clips this morning.

Add in the kind of performance that doesn't show up on the scoresheet (at least directly, but the Thrashers had only 22 shots in more than 64 minutes) by Shaone Morrisonn, Boyd Gordon, Brian Sutherby, Dainius Zubrus, Matt Pettinger, and others, and it was a fine all-around night.

There are very few numbers from last night that jump off the scoresheet, at least among individuals. The Alexes had 13 of the Caps’ 37 shots, but that’s not entirely unexpected. That Brooks Laich was next with four is. That ties his season high.

The real deal in the numbers is the balance . . . of the 18 skaters:

- 14 recorded shots on goal (of 37 total)
- 15 were credited with hits (of 28 total)
- Six had blocked shots
- Nine had takeaways
- Five had points (which does not include Olaf Kolzig, who had an assist on the first Alexander Semin goal)
- 16 had power play time (ok, Brashear had two seconds, sue me)

Both teams came in nicked – Atlanta was missing such as Andy Sutton and Slava Kozlov, the Caps John Erskine, Bryan Muir, and Matt Bradley. It had the feel of a playoff game, especially as the contest was winding down in regulation when the crowd of 15,642 seemed to get into the spirit of things. As the horn sounded to signal overtime and the game tied 2-2, one could only think of Joe Gould, the manager of “Gentleman Jim” Braddock . . .





. . . and at the 4:42 mark, Alexander Semin – with the help of Chris Clark and Steve Eminger – did just that.

It calls to mind a quote from the real Jim Braddock, who before his championship fight with Max Baer was called "a bum" by the Baer camp. "I may not be a great fighter, but I ain't a bum," replied the challenger.

And this morning, neither are the Caps.

Your OMMAA for December

Well, it’s that time again, time for The Peerless’ “Old Man’s Major Award Award.” This month’s OMMAA goes to a Cap who really outdid himself, a Cap who distinguished himself in ways heretofore unheard of this season, a Cap whose 0-1-1, -3 line means little in the larger scheme of things.

No, the winner for December had barely 100 minutes of ice time for the month but took 57 minutes in penalties, had seven fights (including bouts in three straight games), and was suspended for one game (his second suspension of the year).

The winner of the coveted OMMAA for December is none other than . . .

Donald Brashear

Display it proudly, Donald . . . just don't punch it.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, January 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Southeast Shootout time, once more, as the Caps return to divisional play to take on the Atlanta Thrashers, who this morning are not likely in a good mood. The Thrashers took a three-goal lead against the suddenly surprising Phoenix Coyotes early in the third period. The 4-1 lead should have ended the competitive portion of the contest. Well, it didn’t.

Phoenix scored a goal of its own a little over a minute later, then added goals by Shane Doan and Owen Nolan to tie things up before Yanic Perreault won it in overtime, 5-4.

After a five-game winning streak in late-December, Atlanta has gone on to stub their figurative toe in the last four, going 1-2-1. And the problem, as it usually is in such cases, is defense. The Thrashers have given up 16 goals in this short stretch; in their only win they gave up but two. Special teams have been a particular problem. Their inability to kill penalties effectively (72.7 percent of 22 chances) has been a problem matched by a power play that has converted on two of 16 chances (12.5 percent).

Atlanta had been among the more formidable road-scoring teams in the league but have dropped to tenth in per-game road scoring (2.87 goals/game). If there is one place the Thrashers struggle on the road – a point amplified in their last four games – it is on special teams. They are in the middle of the pack in goals scored (12th in goals with 17, 16th in conversions at 15.6 percent) but are dead last in the league in goals allowed (30) and 26th in penalty killing conversions (75.8 percent).

As usual, the Thrasher to look for is Jonathan Sim, Capital Killer (note: his contract -- $610,000 –- is up after this year . . . signing him might be the best thing the Caps can do for their defense, given that they see this guy eight times a year – short of trading a seventh round pick for Scott Niedermayer). Sim is 3-2-5, +1 in five games against the Caps this year, 11-6-17, +6 in 19 games for his career.

Oh yeah, the Thrashers have Marian Hossa, Vyacheslav Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk, too . . . they happen to be the numbers 2, 17, and 21 scorers in the league.

Kari Lehtonen should be returning to the nets tonight (Johan Hedberg played and took the loss last night), and that is not good news for the home team. His overall stats are not especially noteworthy – 2.79 GAA (21st), .912 (16th) – but he’s never lost to the Caps in regulation. He is 2-0-1 this year, 5-0-1 for his career.

Washington finished the first half 17-17-4, 41 points, which is better than where they were last year after 41 games (13-23-5, 31 points) and a lot better than two years ago (11-25-4-1, 27 points), but that 1-7-0 stretch to end the year (including New Year’s Day) left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

The Caps won in their last time out, though – a 5-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens. And in doing so, they danced with what brung ‘em to a 15-10-7 record on December 16th – timely scoring (pairs of goals by Dainius Zubrus and Alexander Semin), solid goaltending, low-risk defenseman play, responsible play from the forwards, and a bit of luck (Saku Koivu taking a penalty to wash out the tying goal when the game was sill in doubt, for example).

That’s what it will take tonight. Atlanta has the firepower – and that Sim guy – to make things ugly for a club that doesn’t bring its “A” game, especially on defense. It will start in goal, where Olaf Kolzig should get the nod. The thing is, though, Kolzig’s record against this club is not as good as one might expect for having faced what has been a bad club for most of its existence. Kolzig is 0-2-1 against the Thrashers this year, 12-10-4-2 for his career. It’s not as if his statistics against the Thrashers (2.72, .906) are much different than his overall career stats (2.68, .907). The Caps have often played just good enough to lose in front of him.

If you’re looking for one Cap to have a good night tonight, it would be a guy who could use one, goal-scoring wise. Alexander Ovechkin is 4-4-8 in five games against the Thrashers this year, 9-13-22 in 13 games in his career. Ovechkin, who has slipped to third in the goal scoring race, hasn’t had a goal in his last five games, one game off his career high (twice last year).

Other Caps to watch would include Dainius Zubrus, who on the heels of his two-goal effort against Montreal comes into this game 4-4-8 in five games against Atlanta this year, Alexander Semin, who has four goals in eight career games against the Thrashers, and Chris Clark, who has five points in five games this year.

In this morning’s Washington Post article, Dainius Zubrus made the point that "If our point shot [on the power play] is a threat, that forces the other teams to come out to challenge it, and that opens things up down low. The other thing is we need to shoot when we have a chance. Sometimes our mentality is to make the perfect play and score into an empty net. Power-play goals are about rebounds or bounces." While that is true in light of the Caps power play problems recently (9-for-58, 15.5 percent in their last ten games),it hints at a related point. The Caps haven’t been much of a threat in terms of scoring from defensemen. This was especially true during the 1-7-0 stretch, when the Caps had a total of three goals from defensemen, one in the last seven games of that streak. However, the addition of Lawrence Nycholat has opened up things a bit. He has two goals in his last four games, and Brian Pothier chipped in with his first of the year in the one-goal loss to Phoenix on New Year’s Day.

The Caps broke the schneid against the Thrashers in their last contest, thanks to some late-game heroics from Alexander Ovechkin, who scored a hat trick and the game-winning overtime goal. The Caps appear to be emerging from their holiday nap, but this will be a test of whether they are ready to make a January push to be a contender, or if they are still marking time.

Caps 4 – Thrashers 3.