The Morning After -- Caps vs. Rangers

No points tonight, Caps fans.

“Frustration”

That’s the word that comes to mind thinking about the Caps’ 5-2 loss to the Rangers last night. And there was a lot to be frustrated about . . . a basketball game earlier that day left the ice resembling a gravel parking lot more than a smooth sheet of ice with the pucks bouncing all over the place . . . there was the now-required damage to a pane of glass . . . there was the return to the 90’s refereeing (what was that about obstruction calls being, well, called?) . . . there was the sick feeling as Alex Ovechkin skated in alone on Henrik Lundqvist on a breakaway that there was no way he was going to score (he didn’t, as the puck rolled up the blade of his stick as he attempted a backhand) . . . there was Sean Avery . . . and there was the sinking feeling that this was it, that with the Caps being 8 points out of a playoff spot with 25 games to go and five teams to climb over, that this was the last meaningful game fans would see at Verizon Center this year.

The Caps now go on the road to play a Lightning team desperately hanging onto the eighth-place spot, a streaking Penguins team (14-2-3), and a solid Montreal club. The word coming to mind with respect to the Caps’ chances is, “bleak.”

Frankly, there was no excuse for this one. The Rangers came into Washington on the heels of a 5-0 whitewash of the Lightning, but they did play the previous night and had to travel. Still, the Caps ended up outshot in the first period 6-0 to start the game, 11-1 by the time the Rangers scored the first goal of the game 11:18 in, and 16-6 for the period. The Caps allowed the Rangers to set the tone and dictate the terms of competition pretty much the entire game.

Outwardly, this had the whiff of a “playoff” game for the Caps. Glen Hanlon shortened his bench drastically – four forwards (including Brian Sutherby) had less than ten minutes of playing time. Eric Fehr had one shift in the last 30 minutes. Matt Bradley – two shifts in the last 26 minutes . . . Donald Brashear – one shift in the last 28 minutes (although he did spend five of that in the box for pummeling Colton Orr) . . . Sutherby – two shifts in the last 23 minutes. Both teams trapped more than Jeremiah Johnson.

What this game came down to was experience and passing ability, the Rangers being on the long end of both. The Rangers arguably lost the stat sheet in many respects (hits, faceoffs, takeaways, blocked shots), but they won in one important respect – shots. Much of that was a product of having a club with accomplished passers – Michael Nylander, Jaromir Jagr, Martin Straka – able to find lanes in the trapping Caps defense to get an open shot. By comparison, the Caps once more had a difficult time getting the puck out of their own end, and even when they did could not find open teammates for shots. There was a lot of empty cycling behind the Rangers’ net. Both Caps goals, it should be pointed out, were the product the mysterious "notch" . . . perhaps the result of the afternoon basketball game – odd bounces off boards assembled under time pressure . . . or perhaps the product of an elaborate fix perpetrated by the Caps (Larry Brooks saves some of the best whining in recent history for this problem, not to mention coach Tom Renney, who sounded like the coach of the losing team in the post-game) that resulted in goals by Alexander Ovechkin and Chris Clark. Neither goal was the result of an actual pass to a player.

The Caps did play a decent game on defense, the final score serving to obscure that point. The Rangers had only one 5-on-5 goal (Straka’s second of the night 6:09 into the third period). But the Caps gave the Rangers a bit too much time and space to make plays, and ultimately it broke them down. There is a fine line between giving a skilled opponent enough respect and giving them too much. That Nylander, Jagr, and Straka had a total of six points among them tonight suggests the Caps were on the wrong side of that line, and that is a problem only experience will solve. So fans . . .

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, February 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, the opponent is the New York Rangers, or as Larry Brooks might say, “the only hockey club worthy of the name.” Well, it looks as if they’re worthy enough to draw what could be, if not a sellout, then the biggest crowd of the year at Verizon Center.

If you were to look at the Blueshirts over the year, you might be humming something like this. The Rangers have had three winning streaks of three games or more, two losing streaks of three games or more, and even a three game overtime/shootout loss streak.

At the moment, they are lost in a 4-7-1 stretch that has seen their shaky playoff hopes fall to the other side of the top-eight divide. They currently reside in 11^th place in the East, three points ahead of the Caps with a game in hand.

The Rangers have been something of an “all-or-nothing” club over their last dozen games. Their four wins have been by a combined 16-3 margin. They’ve also had a “just short” kind of performance. Including the shootout loss, they have five one-goal losses among the eight they registered.

Offense has been a problem. Explosive on occasion – witnessed by 5-0 and 6-1 wins -- they scored a total of 21 goals in the other ten games. The power play is a particular culprit, as much for the chances they’ve managed to generate as of productivity. 47 chances in 12 games is not an especially large number of chances (3.9-per-game, lower than their 5.0 chances-per-game for the year, which is already only 19^th in the league), and converting only seven of those (14.9 percent) hasn’t made up for it. Fortunately for the Rangers, their penalty killing has been excellent – 41 of 46 (89.1 percent) over the last 12 games.

Another problem has been holding leads. The Rangers scored first in six of their past seven games. It hardly seems to have mattered; they’re 3-3 in those six games scoring first.

As one might expect, the offense begins with Jaromir Jagr. But that is not saying as much this year as last. His assist totals are on a pace with last year’s (67 versus last year’s total of 69), but his goal scoring is down (a pace for 31 versus 54 last year), an obvious product of the shoulder injury he sustained in the playoffs last spring. Over his last 12 games he leads the club in scoring (5-12-7, -1), but he seems not to be the dynamic presence hockey fans are used to seeing. Michael Nylander has picked up some of the slack (4-8-12, -5 in the last 12 games), but the real curiosity on this club is Brendan Shanahan. The left winger is 4-4-8, -3 in his last 12 games, but the odd statistic he will bring to the game tonight is that he has two even strength goals scored in the last two months. The Rangers are 11-14-1 over that span.

Henrik Lundqvist recorded the 5-0 shoutout win over Tampa Bay last night (thanks…I think), and given the Rangers’ growing sense of urgency with respect to the playoffs, he seems likely to get the call tonight as well. Why not? He’s played every one of the last dozen games, and done so very well – certainly better than the win-loss record. Over that span, he has the 4-7-1 record, but also has a 2.01 GAA and .926 save percentage.

For the Caps, the object of the exercise is to close strong on the homestand. So far, they have five of six possible points, and they face a beatable team tonight. These are teams in similar circumstances (the Caps also are 4-7-1 in their last dozen games). Both clubs have shown signs of emerging from their respective funks – the Caps have that 2-0-1 record on this home stand, the Rangers are 1-1-1 with a shutout of the Lightning, a shootout loss in New Jersey, and a one-goal loss to the Red Wings.

It would be nice to get Alexander Ovechkin restarted on his goal scoring march, but that is a matter somewhat overblown (the four-game goal draught comes on the heels of having scored goals in five of six games – these things happen with goal scorers). The bigger issue is the power play, which is 2-for-February (24 chances) and 7-for-56 (12.5 percent) since scoring a late power play goal in a 3-1 loss to Florida on January 13^th. And, as for the Rangers, the fortunate aspect of this is that the Caps’ penalty kill has been very good (54 kills in the last 62 situations – 87.1 percent).

So that’s what this might come down to . . . the limp forces (the teams’ power play) versus the immovable objects (the teams’ penalty kill). If either club gets any power play production, it is likely to be the difference.

It says here that the difference is Ovechkin getting back on track with power play success . . .

Caps 3 – Rangers 2.

Caps Troubles Uncovered

It the mascot, stupid.

The Caps are 4-8-7 against clubs this year with "animal" mascots -- Thrashers, Panthers, Bruins, Ducks, Penguins, Coyotes, and Wild (a depiction of a bear's head). They are 0-4-1 against those clubs in their last five games.

The Caps are 19-17-1 against the rest of the league.

For the record, nine of the Caps' remaining 26 games are against these furry and feathered friends.

Blueberry, Bran, or . . . Boyd?

"Muffin?"

Not exactly the moniker for a strapping young piece of western Canada timber, but that might be the kind of nickname that sticks to a guy.

In the post-game interview after last night’s 4-3 overtime win posted by the Caps over the Los Angeles Kings, Olaf Kolzig was holding forth on the shorthanded goal scored by Boyd Gordon to tie the game 1-1 just 1:43 into the second period . . .

"I keep razzing him about how weak his shot is, and I just told him he went up in the rankings after that goal. ... Maybe [King’s goaltender Mathieu Garon's] scouting report on 'Gordo' was that he throws muffins and was just surprised at how fast it came."

Muffin . . . go figure.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Kings

It was a TWO point night!!

A win is a win is a win . . .

. . . but boy, was it ugly. Watching that game left little to the imagination as to why these teams are fighting for seeding in the June draft instead of for the playoffs. Pity, too, since the crowd of 15,527 was among the larger ones of the season. It was a very quiet crowd, but frankly, the home team didn’t give them a lot to cheer about for very long stretches of the game (as in, “all but the first half of the second period and the last ten seconds of the contest” . . . the rest? It was a major yawn).

It was hard to figure out what was worse – the Caps power play (0-for-4 and now two for their last 30 chances) or Mathieu Garon’s ineptitude in the second period, allowing goals on the first three shots he saw in the period. One of the Caps’ major problems this year reared its ugly head once more – the inability to clear the puck from their own end. If time-of-possession was a statistic as keenly kept as it is in the NFL, the Kings probably would have been on the long end of a 40-20 split in minutes. You could argue – convincingly – that this is a product of the youth of the defense (five of the six starters combined had 531 total games experience coming into this contest – less than two seasons apiece), but the fact remains that the Caps routinely have difficulty getting the puck out of their own end.

But let’s not dwell anymore on the bad (we’ll have more to say about Brian Sutherby another time); what about the good?

No, really, there were some good parts . . .

- Let’s start with a win. That’s two in three games and points in all three of those games.

- The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark – while broken up at times tonight – did end the game a combined +7.

- Alex Ovechkin got off the schneid with an assist. He very nearly had the goal that was credited to Ben Clymer (who was on the ice for the Kings’ third goal – he did not return for the remainder of the game).

- Boyd Gordon scored the kind of goal a guy who doesn’t get a lot of chances gets now and then. Shorthanded, he took the puck through the neutral zone and instead of deking and circling and all that nonsense, he just . . . shot the puck. Garon just plain whiffed on the puck trying to secure it in his catching glove. Gordon also won 15 of 24 draws, including a whopping eight of 11 in his own end.

On the Kings’ side of the ledger . . . Rob Blake . . . yeesh. He was awful to the point of looking positively disinterested in lacing up his skates (well, he did come in a -19 and added to that statistic with another -3). He was in the frame for the video of Boyd Gordon’s shorthanded goal, so one knows he had a really good look at it. It seemed a little too typical of his evening.

Glen Hanlon mentioned in the post game that the Caps are not yet at the point where they can look at the schedule and say they should beat this team or that. But the Caps do have one fans might look at as a strong two-point possibility in the New York Rangers tomorrow night. They’ll need it, because after that the road gets hard – Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Montreal, San Jose, home-and-home against the Devils, and then the pesky Panthers to end the month.

Oh, and will somebody buy Don Van Massenhoeven a whistle? He seems to have lost his.

And now, a preview from the past -- The Best of The Peerless

From "The Best of The Peerless" collection . . . something to get ready for Saturday night, a vignette from 2004 . . .


LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLET’S GET READY TO PROGNOSTICA-A-A-A-A-TE! We’re here at Madison Square Garden, the mecca of sport, for tonight’s fight card between the Washington Capitals, led by Ted “The Big Blogger” Leonsis and the New York Rangers, with their new acquisition, Jaromir “The Contract” Jagr.

These foes are evenly matched, bringing a stunning lack of defense and shaky goaltending to the fray, hoping that somehow, they can land enough haymakers into their opponent’s net to negate the distinct lack of defensical fortitude one needs to wear the champion’s belt . . . uh, hoist the Cup.

In the tale of the tape, the Rangers have the advantage in size, scoring, defense, payroll, and offensive fans. The Caps have the advantage in . . . uh . . . hmmm . . .

The teams and their principals are coming out . . . here’s Jagr, coming out last, wearing a blue jersey, red pants, and skates with yellow tasseled laces. He looks determined, his face a mask of stone (which must really, really be heavy). And here is Leonsis . . . adorned with a dark pin-stripe suit, white shirt, yellow tie, and tasseled loafers. What is the deal these days with fighters and tassels?

Leonsis and Jagr glare at one another across the ice. And the fans are getting into it, too. One fan is holding up a sign . . . “Hey, Ted . . . You Fight Better Than Your Team.” Well, at least he didn’t have anything referring to AOL on the sign (opening at 18.34 a share today, up 85 percent over its 52-week low).

The referee smooths his hair and brings the teams together at center ice . . . let’s listen in . . . “OK, boys, you know the rules . . . no punching on the break, no rabbit punches, keep your wallets in your pockets, and when the linesmen come in, immediately go to a neutral corner . . . now shake hands and put your sticks in.”

A comely lass skates out to hold up the round card, and we’re ready for the bout to begin . . . DING! Round One! . . . and the Rangers come out swinging . . . Eric Lindros wins the draw back to Brian Leetch, who sends the puck up to Jagr . . . Jagr curls into the zone and spies Martin Rucinsky on his left . . . Jagr sends a pass across to Rucinsky, who skates in and fires a jab at Olaf Kolzig . . . Kolzig blocks the jab, and the Caps head the other way . . . Brendan Witt starts the play up to Peter Bondra . . . Bondra skates through the center of the ring . . . uh, rink . . . he moves past Tom Poti and is cruising toward Mike Dunham . . . Bondra tries a hook around the net and score on a wrap-around, but Dunham fends off the blow . . . it’s up-and-down, rock-‘em, sock-‘em hockey . . . Kovalev on a drive . . . Lang with a wrister . . . Holik in front . . . Carter from the circle . . . oh, the haymakers being thrown . . . the crowd is in a frenzy . . . DING! . . . and we’re at the end of Round One!

First Intermission . . . Joining us in the prognosti-booth is former heavyweight champion George Foreman with his take . . . Champ, what did you think of Leonsis’ bout the other night . . .

“Well, Ted has great footwork for a man of his size . . . as a guy who enjoys cheeseburgers as much as Ted looks like he does, I know that’s something you don’t learn easily. But, I think he should have softened up the midsection with some body shots before going for the choke-and-throw move . . . that will come with experience, though. It wasn’t bad for his first bout of the season.”

DING! . . . Round Two . . . In contrast to the fast pace of the second period, the teams come out sizing each other up, looking for the counterpunch. It’s more like the undercard as Matthew Barnaby and Chris Simon are on the ice with Stephen Peat and Darcy Verot. The quartet circle one another with sneers on their faces and malice in their hearts (or else they must have had too many Nathan’s Famous with chili before the game). They eye each other warily . . . looking for an opportunity to drop the gloves . . . to send a mess- . . . wait! While that’s going on, Alexander Semin skates by and in alone on Mike Dunham . . . “alone,” you ask? But where is the Ranger defense? . . . they’re at the bench, arguing with Sather that “hey, if I don’t play defense, and I skate pretty, I should be getting at least six . . . seven million a year.” Dunham can only look like those poor befuddled fans at intermission playing that spin-around-the-stick game as Semin dekes, pulls it back, and wraps the puck around the dizzy, fallen goaltender . . .

Meanwhile, Simon, Peat, Verot, and Barnaby are striking John L. Sullivan poses . . . seeing as how this is going on with new quintets ready to take the ensuing faceoff, both teams are whistled for too-many-men-on-the-ice . . . off the ice, The Big Blogger is enduring the chants of Ranger fans . . . “Let’s Go M-S-N clap clap clap-clap-clap . . . Let’s Go M-S-N clap clap clap-clap-clap” . . . seems to be a reference to certain business interests. Finally, when a Ranger fan wearing a home jersey and sporting MSN butterfly wings taunts TBB (The Big Blogger), he goes off, hurling AOL 9.0 Optimized CDs at him. The fan retaliates by beating TBB with his wings. They’re at it, tooth and nail . . . even the players on the ice are struck dumb by the spectacle. Finally, security pulls them apart, and TBB is in distress . . . “mah eye, Mick . . . mah eye . . . cut me, Mick.” Someone answering to the name of “Mick” picks up a CD and cuts the swollen eye. DING! . . . and we’re at the end of a very eventful Round Two.

Second Intermission . . . It looks like the Caps are ahead on the judges’ cards, Champ . . . what do you think so far?

“Well, as sure as I’m fat, old, slow, and bald, thing can change in the blink of an eye. You can’t tell what the outcome is going to be until it’s over. It’s like a cheeseburger . . . you wouldn’t decide whether it was good or not if you just had the meat . . . you need the bun, the tomatoes, the onions, the cheese, the pickles, the lettuce, the jalapenos, the mushrooms, the . . .

Thanks, Champ . .

“bacon, the ketchup, the mustard, the hot sauce, the zucchini, the raspberry jam, the spinach, the calamari, the almond paste, the truffles, the . . .

DING! . . . Round Three . . . The principals come out for the last round. It’s been a titanic struggle, on the ice and in the stands. The referee takes one last look at his coif in the reflection from the glass and heads to center ice for the faceoff to start the round. . . . The period starts in bizarre form as a stick flies out of a Ranger’s hands and whacks him in the teeth. While the chiclets are being collected, a penalty is called . . . Caps, four minutes for high sticking. WHAT?! Brendan Witt, Mike Grier, and Peter Bondra are all following the referee to the scorer’s table to plead that the Ranger whacked himself . . . all to no avail. TBB is restless in his seat . . . and then, a second penalty is shown on the board . . . unsportsmanlike conduct . . . a 5-on-3 advantage, and TBB is on the edge of his seat.

The Rangers start throwing head shots . . . a drive by Leetch . . . a deflection try by Lindros . . . a curl-and-drag to the net by Jagr . . . all stymied by Olaf Kolzig . . . until the whistle is blown, and . . . delay of game? The Caps’ bench is incensed . . . Glen Hanlon is standing on the bench, screaming at the ref . . . and another penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct is whistled. The fans are going crazy . . . it’s taking a squad of out-of-work Arthur Andersen accountants to tally up the damage in penalties for the Caps . . . the Rangers are putting all of their skillful wares on display . . . Lindros’ ruggedness . . . Leetch’s skating . . . Jagr’s stickhandling . . . Messier’s Cro Magnon orbital ridge . . . raining a hail of punches . . . uh, pucks down on Olaf Kolzig. A shot is turned into the corner . . . Jagr picks it up and throws a cross-ice pass in the direction of Petr Nedved, except Nedved is on the Rangers’ bench . . . the puck is picked up by Peter Bondra, and as one, the Rangers exclaim, “ACK, WE HAVE TO PLAY DEFENSE!” Bondra skates in on a clean break, not a Ranger in the same borough . . . Dunham can only sigh as the puck flies by (“oh gee, another night at the Garden . . . no defense”), and the Caps have a 2 goal lead.

Amidst the celebrating, the Caps are whistled for another delay-of-game penalty, and TBB is out of his seat. The Rangers are looking to land a combination to take advantage of what seems this forever 5-on-3. Jagr is at the right wing boards . . . he looks over the situation . . . he skates into the seam between Trent Whitfield and Brendan Witt and flicks his wrists . . . where’s the puck? He forgot to bring it with him! (must be in a New York state of mind). Mike Grier is heading the other way on another breakaway . . . Dunham is contemplating life as a color analyst for TSN Canada when Grier slides the puck into the twine . . . the Ranger fans, so thrilled a few moments ago, are booing loudly enough for people at LaGuardia Airport not to be able to hear planes taking off. The slapstick plays out as the clock winds down, and the blueshirts skulk off after being upset by the Caps, 3 - 0. The team skates off, pleased with its feisty performance, one mirrored by a certain owner, who still unhappy, confronts a referee outside the locker room . . .

. . . we can’t know what really went on, but I’d swear that I heard a legendary sportscaster’s voice exclaiming . . .

DOWN GOES FRASER . . . DOWN GOES FRASER . . . DOWN GOES FRASER.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Kings, February 8th

Hate playin’ the Flyers
They’re big and they’re dumb
And all the players play like donkeys
Let’s leave the Oilers to the eskimos
That town’s a little too far away
For you and me, you Caps fans

Rollin’ down . . . I-95
Headin’ to Verizon and we just can’t be late
Noreaster’ wind blowin’ cold from the north
And we was born to skate

Roll down the window, put down the top
Crank up Steve Kolbe, baby
Don’t let the goal scorin’ stop
We’re gonna skate until we just can’t skate anymore

From the parkway to the Beltway
From the west side to the east side
Everybody’s very happy
’cause the Caps are gonna win this time
Looks like another perfect day

We play L.A. (we love it)
We play L.A. (we love it)

Look at that statue
Looks like Willsie
Look at that bum over there, man
It’s Mike Cammalleri
Look at these goobers
These guys ain’t goin’ nowhere

Lead after one period (we love it)
Lead after two periods (we love it)
Lead after three periods (we love it)
Fun street! (we love it, we love it)

We’ll beat L.A.
We’ll beat L.A.
(we love it!)

Well, the Caps oughtta love it, but that’s what The Peerless said about Boston, too. The Kings are 2-8-2 in their last 12 games, and but for the grace of the Flyers would have the worst record in the NHL. They’ve been outscored in their last 12 games, 41-31, but even that is deceptive. That number includes a 7-0 pounding of Florida (a club the Caps can’t seem to beat . . . please take note) for one of their two wins.

Special teams have been a particular problem for the Kings. The power play has been anemic – 5-for-52 (9.6 percent). Given the Caps recent woes (2-for-25 in their last five games), power plays could be truly painful to watch. The Kings also have had problems keeping up for 60 minutes. They’ve held their own in the first period, outscored by only 13-12. But as the game wears on (10 goals for/14 against in the second period, 8 goals for/13 against in the third), they wilt. If there is one silver lining for the Kings in this woeful dozen games, it is that both wins have been on the road.

The Kings have scored first in seven of these last 12 games, and the first goal in six of them was scored by either Alexander Frolov or Mike Cammalleri. In fact, Frolov is 7-3-10, +3, in the last 12 games, while Cammalleri is 7-8-15, +5. Think those two should get some attention? The rest of the club combined has 17 goals in 12 games.

If the Kings have a “secret weapon” to use here, it is Sean Burke. The veteran goalie joined the club and started his season with a solid 43 minutes against Phoenix on January 20th (23 saves on 24 shots, no decision). Since then, Burke is 2-2-2 and has occasionally been outstanding in his performance. Overall, he has a 2.34 GAA and .930 save percentage.

Again, the Kings are a club the Caps – if they show up – should handle, well, handily. But that’s been the problem, hasn’t it? The Caps can scare up enough of an effort to slash the Sabres or blow over the Hurricanes, then they go toes up against teams with animal mascots (Panthers, Bruins, Coyotes).

Maybe that’s it! The Caps have some weird allergy to fur, metaphorically speaking. This being an club with an inanimate mascot, the win is all but assured . . . we think.

Caps 5 – Kings 3.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Bruins

A one point night . . .

Blpblpblpblpblpblptht…..

The Peerless has no idea what to make of this team. Yesterday, we wrote:

If there was a team served up on a platter for what ails the Caps, it would be these Bruins. And that is precisely the kind of opponent the Caps have saved some of their ugliest games of the year for (see the combined work against the Florida Panthers in the last three meetings).

If the Caps show up and do something more than merely toss their sticks on the ice, they should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close.

Well the Caps didn’t exactly just throw their sticks on the ice, but it wasn’t exactly an inspired effort, either. There are those who forgot more about hockey over this morning’s coffee than The Peerless is ever going to know, but frankly, to say the club has “made a solid turnaround since the Ottawa game [on defense]” is really overstating the case in terms of the numbers, especially regarding last night’s game. Boston came into the game having scored a measly 31 goals in their last 16 games, only 13 in their last eight road games in which they went 1-7-0. This is a team that, for the moment at least, is supposed to get shut down. And the Caps give up one goal off a lost faceoff in their own end (the Caps lost 38 of 67 draws) and another to Patrice Bergeron, who couldn’t hit the water with the puck if he shot it off the poop deck of a cruise ship the last 16 games.

Then there was the offense. Again, here is a team – Boston – coming into this game ripe for the plucking. 72 goals allowed in their last 16 games, 37 in their last eight road games. And the Bruins end up giving up fewer goals in a road game than they’ve managed in almost two months. The Peerless believes that shots on goal matter over the long run of the season. Some argue to the contrary that if you keep the shots to the outside and don’t allow them in bunches, the shot total doesn’t matter. We think that over a season, you can’t count on that. But it sure looked to be the case last night. The Caps didn’t appear to be sticking their collective noses in tight to win loose pucks and bang them in.

But there were a few good performances. One deserves a special bag o’ chips . . .

Richard Zednik might have a “TRADE ME” sign on the back of his jersey, but it hasn’t seemed to hamper his effort. He had the best original chances to score last night and skated hard throughout. Brooks Laich played one of his better games with the club, and that would be true absent his goal. He played hard at both ends and was the only center who seemed to have a clue on faceoffs (winner of eight of 13 draws). Olaf Kolzig probably deserved better than to take the loss. The first goal, from Brandon Bochenski, he might like to have back, but he made a number of key stops down the stretch and really didn’t have a chance on a wide-open one-timer from Bergeron. And Eric Fehr had one of the few “paying attention” moments when he swept in a rebound for his second NHL goal. His taking five shots in the third period (almost half the club’s entire total for the period) suggests he’s starting to assert himself in the offense.

Which brings us to Alex Ovechkin. Every player has their worst game (even Wayne Gretzky, even Sidney Crosby…honest), and last night was, if not Ovechkin’s worst with the club, comes close. One got the feeling sitting in the stands that Zdeno Chara is really in this kid’s head. You can almost see Ovechkin trying to reason it out when he’s skating with the puck and Chara closing . . . “ok, now if I do this . . .” and by that time, his chance has passed. And last night was the extraordinarily rare game when Ovechkin skated without an obvious energy to him. We sat there thinking, “is he coming down with something?” He ended up with 17:38 in ice time last night, his lowest ice time total in a game he didn’t get thrown out of since November 28th. His two shots on goal ties his low mark for the season. And, he’s pointless in three straight games for the first time in his career (he hadn’t been held pointless in consecutive games this season until this stretch). He is in a slump. It happens. But it is odd, even in his brief career to date, to actually see it playing out on the ice.

Oh, and for all you folks longing for a return to the days of yesteryear, well, you saw it last night in the referee stylings of Don Koharski (whose mind might have been on other things, given the new concessions at Verizon) and Wes McCauley. They called 12 penalties in all, but that is very deceptive. Many were of the “non-discretionary” sort – coincidental fighting majors, coincidental roughing minors, a double minor for a high stick that drew blood, and a delay of game for shooting the puck over the glass. Only three “obstruction” fouls were called in the game, and it appeared as if they could have called three times that many. What, they left their whistles at the hotel? It was old time (1990’s) hockey.

But in the end, it was another point squandered, and there have been a lot of them over the past two months. Add them up, and the sum of it is – 13th place.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, February 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Once upon a time, there was a hockey team. They had a difficult 2005-2006 season, but when the 2006-2007 dawned, they exceeded expectations and got off to a surprising start. They were well over .500, and their fans were dreaming playoff dreams. All was going well. But then the December holidays came and the Grinch visited, leaving a foul stench around the team. The team went into a funk and couldn’t keep anyone from putting the puck into their net. Goals were allowed in bunches . . . game after game after game. The team fell through the conference standings . . . eighth . . . ninth . . . tenth . . . eleventh . . . the fans were in a sour mood, and things were getting worse and worse. Playoff dreams became winter nightmares, and the cold, dark truth was revealed that perhaps this wasn't the year the team would return to the playoffs.

The Caps?

Nope, the Boston Bruins.
















On December 29th the Bruins stood at 19-13-3, and all was well in Beantown. Since then, the B’s are 4-11-1 and sinking in the Eastern Conference. And it isn’t as if the Bruins have been losing games close . . . 10-2 to Toronto . . . 6-1 to the Rangers . . . 7-1 to Buffalo. The defense and goaltending have been horrible, matched only by an offense that has been anemic. In their last 16 games, the Bruins:

- have been outscored 72-31 (4.5 - 1.9 per game)
- converted 12 of 75 power play opportunities (16.0 percent)
- killed 73 of 87 shorthanded situations (83.9 percent)
- allowed 34.2 shots per game – 11 times they have yielded at least 35 shots
- scored one or no goals eight times
- allowed five or more goals seven times
- lost eight times by at least three goals
- have been shorthanded ten times in a game twice
- lost a home-and-home to Toronto by a score of 15-3
- started fast in games (18 of 31 goals scored in the first period), then fizzled (outscored 22-5 in the second period, 29-8 in the third period)

The Bruins have had their expressions of joy reduced to vacant stares . . .















Individually, the Bruins really have been reduced to a two-man show in the last 16 games. Marc Savard is 6-13-19, and Glen Murray is 7-5-12, but between the two of them, they are -16 over those last 16 games. From there, it just gets worse for the Bruins. For no one more so, perhaps, than Patrice Bergeron. The third-year player started the year 13-29-42 in his first 35 games. But in the last 16 he is 3-3-6, -16. That last number is not a misprint. He hasn’t been on the plus side of the ledger since December 19th. The minus stats for the Bruins over the last 16 games are of the sort from which Bruin fans would avert their eyes. P.J. Axelsson – generally thought to be among the better defensive forwards in the league – is a -12. Phil Kessel is -7 in 12 games since returning to the Bruin lineup after cancer surgery. Brad Boyes, -16 (again, not a misprint) . . . Marco Sturm, -12 . . . Paul Mara, -10 . . . Brad Stuart, -18 . . . minus 18??? Zdeno Chara’s -4 looks positively “Norrisesque” by comparison. The Bruins are getting pasted at even-strength.

The goaltending hasn’t exactly been top-notch over the last 16 games, either. Tim Thomas is 3-8, 3.96, .885, while Hannu Toivonen is 1-3-1, 4.49, .859.

On the other side of the ice, the Caps are coming off a 2-1 shootout win against the Islanders, which followed a 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh. The good part of that is that the Caps seem to have become reacquainted with team defense. The bad part is, they have one actual hockey goal in the last 128 minutes of play.

If there was a team served up on a platter for what ails the Caps, it would be these Bruins. And that is precisely the kind of opponent the Caps have saved some of their ugliest games of the year for (see the combined work against the Florida Panthers in the last three meetings).

If the Caps show up and do something more than merely toss their sticks on the ice, they should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close.

The Peerless being nothing if not consistent, he sees the Caps actually showing up tonight and taking out a measure of frustration against the struggling B’s. Alex Ovechkin is likely to be wearing a Chara Parka for much of the evening, but it could be a big night for someone like Alexander Semin. Shoot, even the third line could get off the schneid, tonight.

Caps 6 – Bruins 2

photos: (AP/Karl B. DeBlaker)

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Islanders

Two points, today, thank you very much.

photo: Getty Images

Well, that was . . . oops, hold on, gotta fix the glass . . . as we were saying, that was nice. The Caps . . . oops, there goes the glass again. The Caps might have won ugly, but the operative word there is “won.” When Matt Pettinger scored less than three . . . damn, there goes that glass again! When Pettinger scored less than three minutes into the . . . ARGHHHH!! Will somebody fix the #@%&ing glass?

OK . . . when Pettinger scored less than three minutes in, it looked as if the Caps might have one of those games when things click, and the opponent goes scurrying for cover as the good guys unleash a goal scoring onslaught. Well, that didn’t happen. But Olaf Kolzig almost made the singleton stand up. He did allow a shorthanded goal as the Caps played goofy with the man advantage, and Kolzig seemed to lack an awareness about who was lurking around his crease as Mike Sillinger pounded home the tying tally 27 seconds into the second period.

But that was it. No more soup for you. Take your fey little striped sleeve jerseys and go away. The Islanders tried to make an ugly game of it, and for the most part they succeeded. Between the Islanders’ painful approach to the game, the interminable stoppages for glass repair, the Caps’ own ability to take the most basic of plays – the pass from teammate to teammate – and turn it into an Indiana Jones adventure moment, this game would make the short list of ugliest NHL games of the year. You didn’t need a watch to time this game, you needed a calendar. The mites at the first intermission displayed more flow and cohesiveness.

But in the end, Alexander Semin scored a shootout goal – where else – over the goalie’s glove to give the Caps the 2-1 win and put to an end the three game losing streak.

If there were numbers of note in this game, they were those that reflectedwhat looked like a “short bench” strategy by Glen Hanlon:

- Brian Sutherby: 7:41 of ice time and only one shift in the last 27 minutes of regulation and overtime

- Donald Brashear: 4:40 of ice time and none in the last 31 minutes of regulation and overtime.

- Matt Bradley: 7:56 of ice time and one shift in the last 27 minutes.

Maybe they had Super Bowl party hors d’oeuvres in the oven . . .

On the other hand, the new kid got the most ice time again. Milan Jurcina had 25:47 and displayed a talent that Caps defensemen have not often displayed this year – the ability to actually get the puck to the net. He was credited with five shots on goal.

Richard Zednik did well in his audition for other clubs, almost stuffing the puck on a wrap-around in the first period (which led directly to Pettinger’s goal on the follow-up) and skating with energy in his 17 minutes.

The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark was held with out a shot for the first 41 minutes of the game. Hard to score that way.

Steve Eminger might have played his best game of the season. In almost 25 minutes, he was as steady and sound as perhaps in any game of his young career. He and Jeff Schultz made a good pair (Schultz chipped in with five blocked shots and used his reach to foil Islanders trying to maneuver the puck along the boards all afternoon).

This was not a game for the video highlight vault, unless you’re thing is watching guys repair dislodged panes of glass. But a win is a win is a win. And the Caps, not to mention their fans, will accept the two points gladly. It was a good start to a four game homestand. All of the games this week are winnable, and for the Caps to maintain even a glimmer of playoff hope, it is likely that all have to be won. But it’s one at a time, and this one was good for two points. Nicely done, guys.

A Crying Shame or a Joke . . . Take Your Pick

We depart from hockey for a moment to point out that one of the great travesties of sport was perpetrated yesterday when one of these players was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and the other was not. Let’s go to the “tale o’ the tape.”

Regular Season:	Art Monk	Michael Irvin
Games	224	159
Rec.	940	750
Yds.	12,721	11,904
Avg.	13.5	15.9
TDs	68	65
Top-10 finishes:
Rec.	4	4
Yds.	3	6
TDs	1	4
All Time:
Rec.	6	T20
Yds	11	14
TDs	T30	T37
Playoffs:
Games	15	16
Rec.	69	87
Yds.	1,042	1,314
Avg.	15.1	15.1
TDs	7	8
Super Bowl Wins	2	3

Not to mention, Monk was an exemplary character, both on and off the field. That Monk is still on the outside looking in for the seventh time after today's inductees were announced, and Irvin in on his third try is one of the true injustices of the sport. It diminishes the Hall and the NFL. It is only perhaps exceeded by the mind-boggling snub of former Commissioner Paul Tagliabue for induction. Following onto the legendary tenure of Pete Rozelle, Tagliabue was the overseer of the NFL into a marketing colossus.

The Hall's board of selectors should be replaced in its entirety and banned from any further participation in the annual selection.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, February 4th

Caps fans . . . this is for you . . .

And it doesn’t get any easier.

It isn’t bad enough that the Caps are mired in that 6-15-0 funk, or that they lost a hard-fought 2-0 game to Pittsburgh on Saturday. No-o-o-o sirree . . .they get to return to Verizon Center to the loving embrace of fans – who will be on a hair trigger to boo – to take on the New York Islanders, who are – get this – undefeated in their last six games (4-0-2).

The Islanders over these last six games have . . .

- outscored the opposition 25-20
- converted four of 24 power plays (16.7 percent)
- killed 27 of 31 shorthanded situations (87.1 percent)
- been led by Trent Hunter with five goals, followed by Miroslav Satan and Jason Blake with four apiece
- gotten competent, if not outstanding goaltending from the Rick DiPietro (3.38, .893) / Mike Dunham (1-0-1, 2.04, .933) team – since DiPietro played against Montreal (a 4-2- win) on Saturday, expect Dunham to get the call on Sunday.

The Islanders have gotten good production from Trent Hunter (5-3-8, +3), Miroslav Satan (4-4-8, +1), and Jason Blake (4-1-5, -1), but what seems to characterize the Islanders in their last six games is a willingness to shoot it out with their opponents. They’ve scored at least four goals in five of the six games; they’ve given up at least four goals twice.

For the Caps, an arena full of Dutch boys wouldn’t be enough to plug the holes in the dike. Once among the better 5-on-5 clubs this season, they’ve slipped to 25^th in 5-on-5 play . . . they are allowing an astonishing 3.48 goals-per-game (27^th) . . . they are still last in the league in shots-per-game allowed at 34.8 . . . 28^th in the league when trailing first . . . 25^th when outshot by opponents (a really bad sign when you’re giving up those 34.8 shots a game) . . . 24^th in faceoffs . . . 25^th in goal differential . . . 30^th in shot differential . . . 4^th most penalized team in the league. The Caps’ collapse from their high-point in mid-December has been across the board.

On the good side, the Caps are 5-4-2 in the second half of back-to-back games this year, 2-1-0 on home ice.

Olaf Kolzig has had excellent career success against the Islanders with a 24-9-2, 2.31, .910 record. And, although his won-loss mark stands at 2-4-0 in his last six games, he’s been something of a victim of bad luck (and bad play in front of him), too. His 3.03 GAA is better than his season average, and his .903 save percentage is comparable to his season mark (.908).

A long time ago, the Islanders owned the Caps. They were the “Penguins” breaking Caps fans’ hearts long before the Penguins got around to it. Then, for a time, the Caps owned the Islanders. But the Caps have lost six of their last seven games to this club by a combined score of 29-16, including a 4-1 thumping on November 25^th.

Once more, the matter of fast starts comes into play. The Islanders have the fifth best record in the league when leading after one period. The Caps are 28^th in the league when trailing after one period. If the Islanders have a lead after one, you might think about an early start to those Super Bowl parties.

The Peerless thinks the Caps are long past the point at which they should be angry over the turn of events the last seven weeks. It’s time to play with equal parts anger and disgust, because . . .

Caps 4 - Islanders 3

The Evening after the Afternoon -- Caps vs. Penguins

Nope . . . no points today.



It was all about the goaltending. One flinch was the difference – a hesitation by a shooter, followed by an innocent looking flick at the net. That was the sliver of difference between the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins, the latter skating off Mellon Arena ice with a 2-0 win this afternoon. An empty net goal at the end provided the final margin, but less than ten seconds in the second period was just enough to sink the Caps – long enough for Ronald Petrovicky to collect the puck in his own end, skate down the right wing, fake a pass, and send the puck to the net and past goaltender Olaf Kolzig, who appeared to be expecting something smarter fired at the net.

At the other end, Marc-Andre Fleury continued his run of fine performances with a 30 save shutout. It was good enough to send Alex Ovechkin into a stick-snapping fit of frustration after the game.

There really isn’t anything else to offer in terms of difference. It is not as if the Caps played a bad game. They didn’t. They had chances. Eric Fehr, especially, had two golden opportunities – one on a partial breakaway – that Fleury turned aside. Fleury was, as he has been for the Penguins the last five weeks, the difference. For the Caps, this loss looked a lot better than the confounding and sloppy losses to Florida. Offense is, by its nature, often streaky. But defense is a product of effort – something that can be brought every night (or close to it). The Caps had that effort this afternoon.

If there was one very subtle number in this game it was this . . .

20:23. That was the ice time for the newest Cap, Milan Jurcina, more than any other defenseman. The Peerless wonders, if the club was in the thick of the playoff hunt, would a brand spanking new player be given top minutes on the blue line?

There is much caterwauling on the official boards about the play of Olaf Kolzig and the Caps in general. Going 6-15-0 over what amounts to more than a quarter of the season will do that. But let’s step back and look at the hand the Caps are playing on the blue line . . .

Shaone Morrisonn (18:26 in ice time today) – 173 games experience
Steve Eminger (16:36) – 173 games
Mike Green (17:04) – 72 games
Jeff Schultz (18:26) – 11 games
Milan Jurcina (20:23) – 92 games

Joe Beninati and Craig Laughlin noted the Penguins’ youth in this afternoon’s broadcast (second youngest team in the league), but it would be hard to find a greener defense than the one Washington is putting on the ice. These are guys who someday will fit the roles they are now being asked to play, but it is unfair to expect these guys to flourish in those roles right now. Today, they did themselves proud against what is one of the hottest teams in the league (now 11-2-2 in their last 15 games).

The standard argument among a lot of Caps fans – that the club should have gone out and procured a veteran defenseman sooner – is largely irrelevant. The problem is not talent . . . when healthy. The club did manage to compile a 15-10-7 record when the blue line was vertical. The problem is depth and experience. Jeff Schultz is as good an example as any to point to. He is a first round pick of whom much is expected . . . down the road. He was ticketed to spend a full year in Hershey. Although he has played well, for the most part, in his 11-game stint with the big club, he is not equipped in terms of either his experience or his current skill level to be a cornerstone defenseman on this club. Two or three years from now? Maybe. But some Caps fans would rather sacrifice his development in the here and now to have the club procure (at what cost usually remains a bit of a mystery) a veteran defenseman.

We keep coming back to this point in a variety of ways, and we return to it again. There will come a time when the addition of a veteran – either a forward or a defenseman – will not just be recommended, it will be required. But that has to be done to complement the development of youngsters, not to replace it. Schultz, Green, Eminger, Morrison, and the newcomer Jurcina are getting that battle experience now. It could have the benefit of accelerating their development curve and to sort out just who among them can really play this game, if that needs to be done.

Here is another way to look at it. Pittsburgh is, at the moment, the most improved club in the NHL – 26 points better than they were at a comparable point last year. Most of that is a recent development (that 11-2-2 record they’re currently on). In a sense, the light has gone on as their top picks garnered as a result of their 2002-2006 run of suck have gotten some games under their belt. For the Caps, the light-going-on moment is (and The Peerless expects to be) next year. The experience the kids – especially on the blue line, where development is slower – are getting right now, and the lumps they are taking in getting it, will only help bring that day closer.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, February 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

OK, kids . . . here’s the rule for today . . .

The Caps – 6-14-0 in their last 20 games – visit the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are 10-2-2 in their last 14 games, 7-0-1 in their last eight. The Penguins have done just about every thing right over the last five weeks. The basics:

- Record: 10-2-2

- Goals for/against: 56 / 33 (4.00 / 2.36)

- Power Play: 25 / 70 (35.7 percent)

- Penalty Kill: 58 / 68 (85.3 percent)

- 14 skaters share in the 56 goals scored

- In four of their last eight games, they have scored five or more goals

- The big guns are roaring: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Mark Recchi each have eight goals in the last 14 games

- The Penguins start strong. In 14 games they’ve outscored the opposition 15-7 in the first period.

- The finish strong, too. In the third period, they’ve outscored opponents 22-10.

- The third period has been among the more noteworthy things in their run – only twice in 14 games were they held off the scoreboard (they won one and lost the other in a shootout).

- Scoring first seems not to matter much. In eight of the 14 games the Penguins scored first. They were 6-1-1 in those games. In games where the opponent scored first, the Penguins were 4-1-1 . . .

. . . but leading after one does. The Penguins carried a lead into the first intermission nine times. They were 8-0-1.

The Penguins have been a finely-tuned six-cylinder engine over the last 14 games:

- Sidney Crosby: 8-19-27, -4
- Evgeni Malkin: 8-13-21, +5
- Mark Recchi: 8-9-17, even
- Jordan Staal: 6-4-10, +10
- Ryan Whitney: 4-11-15, +4
- Sergei Gonchar: 4-10-14, even

Although The Peerless wonders . . . how can one score 27 points in 14 games, and still be -4? Answer – don’t let the Penguins get the man advantage.

But for all those gaudy numbers among the skaters, the difference in the last 14 for the Penguins is this . . .

9-1-2, 2.11, .932

Those are the numbers for goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who over this stretch is giving the Penguins the results they expect from a number one overall pick. To the extent the Penguins can keep this up, it will be the extent to which Fleury can maintain this, or close to this level of play.

Mellon Arena has been

for the Caps for more than a decade. The Caps lost in an embarrassing fashion in the teams’ first meeting this year, giving up a 4-0 lead on their own ice in a 5-4 shootout loss. The Caps, who have been plagued by poor starts in games in their seven week slide and poor overall defense, are looked at in many quarters as being the guests of honor for a ritual sacrifice. It has all the makings of a rout.

The Peerless doesn’t do routs for the other club. The Caps have managed to conjure up excellent efforts against good teams all year. The Caps have to consider the Penguins a good team, or at the very least a decent team playing excellent hockey.

The keys are these:

- Avoid the slow start; play the Penguins at least even for the first 20 minutes – conservative hockey

- Bring the packing materials. No, not to help the Penguins move to Kansas City . . . to pack things in against Fleury. Make him play the position, make his life difficult, create havoc in front of him, crowd him.

- Do not get into a special teams fight. Five-on-five to stay alive.

- No lead is safe. If the December 11^th game doesn’t drive that point home, the Penguins’ 22 goals in the third period in their last 14 games had better.

The over-under here is seven. If the total goals in this game is seven or more, chances are the Caps are on the short side of that number. So . . .

Caps 3 – Penguins 2.

The New Kid in Town

photo: Getty Images

There’s a new kid in town, and his name is Milan Jurcina.

Yesterday, the Caps acquired young (23 years old) Mr. Jurcina to join a nucleus of defensemen of that age or younger who are with, or who are otherwise playing substantial minutes with the Caps this year:

Steve Eminger
Shaone Morrisonn (ok, he just turned 24 in December)
Mike Green
Jeff Schultz

And that does not include other first round blueliners Joe Finley and Sasha Pokulok. Nor does it include the Caps’ last blue line signing, Brian Pothier (although The Peerless certainly agrees with JP over at Japers’ Rink that this deal signals what is likely to be a lengthy absence for Pothier).

This deal has no downside that The Peerless can divine:

1) The Caps gave up a fourth rounder. Well, gee . . . let’s look at the sort the Caps have picked in that round in recent years . . . Ryan Van Buskirk (2000), Jeff Lucky (2001), Jevon Desautels (2002), Petr Dvorak (2002), Andreas Valdix (2003), Andrew Thomas (2005), Patrick McNeill (2005), Oskar Osala (2006), Luke Lynes (2006). The Peerless will concede that the jury is out on the 2005 and 2006 picks, but are any Caps fans waiting in eager anticipation for the Capitals’ debut of anyone else on that list? If so, you’ll be disappointed. Getting Jurcina for a fourth is a “happy birthday to me” moment.

2) One can never have too many defensemen. The Caps lost Bryan Muir and John Erskine, then Brian Pothier, and their season went into the toilet faster than last night’s chili. This is not a “this year” move, but it could set up some spirited competition on the blue line next fall.

3) OK, so Jurcina fell out of favor in Boston. He was identified here as having 3-4 potential not so long ago. Sometimes, a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered to jump start a youngster’s career.

4) He’s certainly cap-friendly. $500K this year, and he’s a restricted free agent after this year. Based on his performance to date, we suspect he’ll remain and continue to be cap-friendly in his next deal.

5) History. He skated alongside Shaone Morrisonn once upon a time (in Providence). Perhaps that can have a beneficial effect on both players (well, then again, maybe they couldn’t stand each other up there…you never know about such things).

6) Jerseys. The Peerless is of a mind that there are a lot of ‘68’ jerseys around. It was Jurcina’s number in Boston. The Caps can save on uniforms.

The (yeesh) Morning After -- Caps vs. Panthers

You know what? . . . So what?

Alex Ovechkin is perfect for 2007. 13 games, points scored in every one. 8-12-20 over that time.

And the Caps are 5-8-0.

So . . . so what? The object of the exercise is not a Ross Trophy, it’s the playoffs and a Stanley Cup. Any further thoughts of either should be put in a box and placed in the closet for the remainder of the season. Players can’t think that way – that’s the nature of competition. But for fans? Let’s shed the cold light of truth on what’s happening. The Caps have lost 14 of their last 20 games, including three to the Florida Panthers by a combined score of 17-7. Last night’s indignity just served to slam the point home with a pile driver.

It was like watching a movie replayed over and over once more. The Peerless feels like this guy . . .



Once more, the Caps got out of the box poorly, giving up a goal 77 seconds into the game. They trailed at the intermission (2-1). They played an awful second period (outscored 3-0). They were outhit (29-22). They couldn’t kill penalties (3-for-6 on the penalty kill). They've made Josef Stumpel seem like the second coming of Phil Esposito (4-3-7 in five games against Washington; 11-23-34 in 47 games against the rest of the league) and Martin Gelinas the next Mike Bossy (four goals in five games against the Caps, four goals in 48 games against everyone else). They’ve permitted the Panthers to score at a 4.00 goals per game clip in five games this year – Florida is averaging 2.77 goals per game against everyone else. And now, the Caps find themselves at the bottom of the Southeast Division, 13th in the Eastern Conference, 24th in the league.

And here is an inconvenient truth . . . Since the Caps defeated Philadelphia on December 16, they are 6-14-0. In that time, the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark is a combined 26-33-59. Doesn’t sound half bad; they’re averaging more than a goal a game out of that line. But they are also a combined -25. What they’re scoring, they’re playing a part in giving back and then some.

That the Caps have 49 points in 52 games is not surprising. Even the manner of how they got here isn’t surprising; we felt the club would show the glimmer of a contender early before succumbing to the grind of the season that would expose their lack of depth and experience. But the stark and utter collapse of the last 20 games, including lopsided losses to clubs the Caps should be leaving it their rear-view mirror, has been disheartening to fans, certainly. Giving up 78 goals in 20 games (3.90) has been the problem that screams off the page. That, and getting no points in games against Florida and Phoenix – eight points left on the table that if earned would have the Caps a point behind Carolina for eighth place with two games in hand – have washed away what good feelings surrounded the club in mid-December.

This is a reality check. The Caps are not a good team. They are a young team, a green team, a team with potential but one with a lot of holes, especially on defense. Time and experience will help solve these problems, and the Caps now have much of the former to obtain a lot of the latter. That’s what they’re playing for now.