The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, February 23rd

"Everybody understands the magnitude of the game. We need to be ready."

-- Capitals goaltender, Olaf Kolzig, on the importance of tonight's game against Carolina

And sometimes, it's big enough to let the general get the troops ready...

Now, I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a hockey game by taking a penalty for his team. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard take a penalty for his team. Men, all this stuff you’ve heard about the Caps not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the contest, is a lot of horse dung. Caps traditionally love to fight. All real Caps love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer. Caps fans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Caps play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Caps have never lost and will never lose a game. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Capitals.

Now, a hockey club is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, checks as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The bilious bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for ESPN don’t know anything more about real hockey games than they do about fornicating.

We have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. You know, by God I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to check the bastards, we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to tape the blades of our sticks. We’re going to hit those lousy Hurricane bastards by the bushel.

Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Hurricanes are the enemy.

Wade into them.

Spill their blood.

Check them into the boards.

When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do.

Now there’s another thing I want you to remember. I don’t want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let Carolina do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks you what did you do in the great National Hockey League, you won’t have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in DC."

Alright now, you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel. Oh, and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle – anytime, anywhere.

That’s all.

When midnight falls, the Caps will still have three games in hand on Carolina. They could find themselves within two points of Carolina or as far back as six points behind.

This is, as Kolzig put it, the "biggest game of the year." It is the biggest game for the Caps since the double-overtime loss to Tampa Bay in Game 6 of the first round of the 2003 Stanley Cup playoffs.

While every game will be big from here on out, this is the first really big test for the young Capitals in their march back to competitiveness. And, they will be taking on a team that has hit its stride. Carolina is 9-5-1 in its last 15 games, 4-1-1 in its last six. In these last six games...

Goals for/against: 20/18
Power play: 3/25 (12.0%)
Penalty killing: 12/18 (66.7%)
Record when scoring first: 4-0-0
Record when trailing first: 0-1-1

Carolina has gotten off to fast starts in the games they've won over this short stretch of games. Oddly enough, it's been at around the three minute mark of the opening period that has spelled trouble for opponents. In the first three of the four wins in these last six games, Carolina scored at 3:01, 3:13, and 3:21 of the opening frame. And, even in the games they lost, their opponent got off fast -- New Jersey scored 2:02 into the game in a 5-1 win, and Boston scored with 4:50 gone in the first in a 3-2 shootout win.

When you look at Carolina's overall stats for the season, you wonder, "how does this team lead its division?"

Goal/game differential: -0.24 goals/game
Power play: 19th (17.0%)
Penalty killing: 30th (76.6%)
Winning pct. after two periods: 23rd (.808)

The goaltending they're getting out of number one netminder Cam Ward isn't a lot better:

GAA: 36th (2.89)
SV: 37th (.900)

OK, both rankings are higher than that of Caps number one goalie, Olaf Kolzig, but Ward is younger, presumably playing on a team that was supposed to be a contender this year. He is only recently a Conn Smythe Trophy winner as MVP in the Stanley Cup playoffs. His numbers this year are roughly what he finished the year with last year (2.93, .897), and last year was not thought to be an especially good one.

What Carolina does reasonably well is play five-on-five. They are 11th in the league in five-on-five goals for/goals against ratio. They are also front-runners -- seventh in the league in winning percentage when scoring first.

What Carolina lacks these days is their captain, Rod Brind'Amour, who suffered torn ligaments in his knee on Valentine's day. Three days before that, they moved veteran forward Cory Stillman and defenseman Mike Commodore to Ottawa for forward Patrick Eaves and defenseman Joe Corvo. Eaves is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, and Corvo is not generally thought of as an impact defenseman. What this means is that a larger share of the burden falls to the shoulders of Eric Staal and Ray Whitney to generate offense. It's early to tell about these two, but in three games since Brind'Amour's injury, Whitney is 3-1-4, +4; while Staal is 0-3-3, +1.

One wonders if Carolina can sustain their recent good fortune over the season's last six weeks. The loss of Brind'Amour is, to use an overused term, "huge." Even absent, he remains high on the Hurricane stats lists:

Goals: 3rd (19)
Assists: T-1st (32)
Points: 3rd (51)
Power play goals: T-2nd (6)
Power play assists: T-3rd (12)
Power play points: T-3rd (18)
Game-winning goals: T-2nd (4)
Ice time: 1st (22:27/game)
Blocked shots: 1st among forwards (38)
Takeaways: 3rd (31)

Add to this that he is one of, if not the, best faceoff men in the league (3rd among players taking 500+ draws -- 58.3 percent), and use of the term "huge" with respect to the effect of his absence is not an overstatement.

For the Caps, this boils down to the prototypical road game. Do not let the 'Canes start fast...take the crowd out of the game by controlling the pace...play for a lead, then play smart (without resorting to a prevent defense)...get good goaltending.

On this last matter, Olaf Kolzig is 26-13-8-1 against Carolina in his career. He is the veteran among veterans on this, a young Caps team. It's a big burden to bear, but this game rests largely on his broad shoulders. If the Caps are to overtake the Hurricanes, Kolzig has to play large, and this is precisely the game in which he has to do it.

Another great movie leader of sorts, Herb Brooks, had what is perhaps the most relevant take on what this game is for the Caps in their effort to replace Carolina at the top of the division...

"This is your time. Their time is done. It's over."

Carolina is yesterday...tomorrow, the Caps will wake up two points behind the Hurricanes.

Capitals 4 - Hurricanes 1

Deadline Day -- Looking Back a Year Ago

Trading day is like Christmas morning for hockey pundits, fans, media, and…well, everyone connected to the sport except players and GMs, we suspect. The thrill of who will be dealt next for what will have folks trolling every media site and rumor mill they can click on for the latest move.

Does it matter in the end? Last time, we looked at deals in the week leading up to Deadline Day last year. Now, we look at a handful of the pile of deals made on Deadline Day itself – February 27, 2007…

Atlanta acquires Pascal Dupuis and a 2007 third round pick from New York Rangers for Alex Bourret

The irony here is that these two teams would meet in the playoffs in the opening round, and this deal nudged the two clubs in entirely different directions, the Rangers looking at the future and Atlanta looking for help in the present. Atlanta (32-23-10 at the time of the trade) was struggling to secure a playoff spot and ended up with an unspectacular, if capable forward in Dupuis. It would be his third team in 2006-2007 (Minnesota being the team he started the year with). He would finish the season 3-2-5, -6, in 17 games as the Thrashers finished 11-5-1 and in the top spot in the Southeast. As much as anyone on the Thrashers, he had a decent playoff (given his role), going 1-2-3, +2 in the four-game one-and-done against the Rangers. Meanwhile…Bourret is 8-23-31, -1 in 46 games at Hartford in the AHL.

Pittsburgh acquires Gary Roberts from Florida for Noah Welch

The Penguins wanted a character guy to help the kids on their first foray into the NHL playoffs. They got the genuine article in Roberts, who pretty much is the NHL poster guy for “the guy I’d want in the foxhole with me.” Old school, grizzled, chippy at times (ok, a lot)…he was what the doctor ordered for the rosy-cheeked Penguins. Pittsburgh was 33-19-9 when the deal was made and finished 14-4-2 after. Roberts contributed a 7-6-13, -5, line in his 19 games to finish up the regular season and chipped in a pair of goals and assists in the five-game opening round playoff loss to Ottawa. His contributions, though, are as much those that don’t show up on the score sheet. The Penguins thought so…they resigned him for 2007-2008, but he sustained a broken leg on December 29^th. Meanwhile…Welch played four games this season for the Panthers, injured his shoulder in a fight in a game against Montreal, and after having surgery in November is out indefinitely.

San Jose acquires Bill Guerin from St. Louis for Ville Nieminen, Jay Barriball, and a 2007 or 2008 conditional first-round pick

Another rental…San Jose had use for some scoring punch with an edge, and Guerin is just that kind of player…or so you would think. San Jose was 38-24-1 at the time of the trade and finished the year 13-2-3 after the deal. When Guerin contributed eight goals in 16 games for the Sharks, this looked like a rental that worked. Then, Guerin picked the worst time to go cold. The Sharks managed to get past Nashville in the first round, but they were knocked out by Detroit in the second round. Guerin was 0-2-2 in nine games, missing the last two in the Detroit series after he was cut in the face by a deflected puck. Meanwhile…Nieminen has not played in the NHL this year (he signed a contract to play in Sweden). Barriball is 3-13-16, -11 in 31 games with the University of Minnesota, although last year he was the Golden Gophers’ leading scorer on a team that included Blake Wheeler and Kyle Okposo.

Anaheim acquires Brad May from Colorado for Michael Wall

You’d think a club like Anaheim – one that won as much through intimidation (at least what passes for it in the post-lockout NHL) as skill – would not be looking to add more of that particular specie of player at the deadline, especially when the story line goes that in the playoffs teams play a little closer to the vest. You’d have thought wrong. The Ducks were 37-17-10 at the time of the trade, 11-3-4 thereafter. May chipped in only an assist in 14 games, but he wasn’t added to be a Gretzky knock-off. What he did bring to the table was displayed in living color in the waning moments of Game 4 of the opening round series against Minnesota when he punched Wild defenseman Kim Johnsson from behind (part of a larger scrap between the teams). May was issued a match penalty and game misconduct, and was subsequently suspended for the next three playoff games. Anaheim kicked Minnesota to the curb in Game 5 and went on, of course, to win the Cup. Meanwhile…Wall is 7-11-4 , 2.75, .910 in 23 games tending goal for Lake Erie in the AHL.

Pittsburgh acquires George Laraque for Daniel Carcillo and a 2008 third-round draft pick

On paper, this looks a lot like the previous deal described. That’s where the similarity ends. Laraque – a feared pugilist – played in 17 regular season games for the Penguins and registered two assists and two fights. In the first round five-game playoff loss to Ottawa, Laraque dressed only for the first and last game, logging less than nine minutes of ice time total for the series. Meanwhile…Carcillo, who is a one-man crusade to refine the term “pest,” has 236 penalty minutes this season and is on a pace for 356. Those are positively 1970’s-ish in volume. His current volume of PIMs exceeds that which led the league last year (Ben Eager: 233). He is on a pace to have more PIMs than anyone since Peter Worrell’s 354 in 2001-2002.

Buffalo acquires Dainius Zubrus and Timo Helbling from Washington for Jiri Novotny and a 2007 first round pick

Buffalo was looking for depth and some physical forward play; the Caps were looking at the future and hoping Novotny could improve the skill level in the short term. Neither club got everything they wanted. Buffalo was 41-16-5 at the time of the trade and finished 12-6-2 thereafter. What Zubrus gave the Sabres (4-4-8, -3, in 19 games) was about what he gave the Capitals…and the Canadiens…and the Flyers – glimpses of skill dotting long stretches of ordinary play. It was more of the same in the playoffs, where Zubrus was 0-8-8, +1, as Buffalo reached the conference final, where they dropped a five-game series to Ottawa. Meanwhile…Novotny didn’t light up Washington, either. He was allowed to pursue free agency, where he was signed by Columbus. As for that 2007 pick, it was moved to San Jose for a second rounder in 2007 and another one in 2008. Washington then sent the second rounder in 2007 to Philadelphia for a third in 2007 and a second in 2008. The Caps used the third rounder (originally a Nashville pick) to pick Phil Desimone.

New York Rangers acquire Paul Mara from Boston for Aaron Ward

The Rangers got younger and bigger in this deal. They also got some solid play from Mara, who was 2-3-5, +6, in 19 games after arriving in Manhattan. He contributed another pair of goals and assists in the playoffs, but the Rangers struggled at the other end in the second round series against Buffalo, scoring only 13 goals in six game (four of those in the 5-4 final-game loss). Meanwhile…Ward has had a decent year in Boston (4-5-9, +8, in 47 games) but lost 13 games to a variety of injuries (concussion, ankle, broken foot).

Detroit acquires Todd Bertuzzi from Florida for Shawn Matthias, a 2007 conditional draft pick, and a 2008 conditional draft pick

It seems as if every year, the Red Wings – despite lighting up teams in the regular season – are in need of getting bigger, grittier, and nastier for the playoffs. Bertuzzi would quality as bigger, grittier, and nastier. But for the Wings, such a player has to contribute, too. Bertuzzi had 46-goal season on his resume, so there was the possibility of getting production in a surlier package. The trouble was, Bertuzzi was injured goods when the trade was made – a herniated disk would ultimately cost him 66 games of the 2006-2007 season. When he returned, he notched a pair of goals and assists in eight games – not especially productive, but not unexpected given all the time lost. Things didn’t improve much in the playoffs, though, as he was 3-4-7, -2 in 16 games. He was signed by Anaheim as an unrestricted free agent in the off season. Meanwhile…Matthias is 26-43-69, +20, in 43 games with Belleville in the OHL.

Dallas acquires Mattias Norstrom, Konstantin Pushkarev, a 2007 third-round pick, and a 2007 fourth-round pick from Los Angeles for Jaroslav Modry, Johan Fransson, a 2008 first-round pick, a 2007 second-round pick, and a 2007 third-round pick

This was the biggest deal at the deadline, at least in terms of volume. The defenseman Norstrom was the key to the deal for the Stars in the short term. He was to provide some additional stay-at-home protection. However, Dallas was a team that was considerably challenged in the offensive end (they finished tied for 21^st in the league in goals-per-game). The deal for defense didn’t hurt Dallas over the rest of the regular season (they finished 13-4-4 after the deal), but in the first round of the playoffs against Vancouver (with whom the Stars tied for that 21^st spot in goals-per-game), the Stars could manage only 12 goals and scored more than two only once (in a 5-4- overtime loss in Game 1). Meanwhile…Modry played a total of 80 games for the Kings over last season and this, before being moved to the Flyers for a 2008 third-round pick. Fransson – a defenseman prospect – is playing for Linkoping of the Swedish Elite League.

New York Islanders acquire Ryan Smyth from Edmonton for Ryan O'Marra, Robert Nilsson, and a 2007 first-round pick

Smyth – a sixth-overall draft pick by the Oilers who played all of his 838 NHL regular season and playoff games with Edmonton – was brought in by the Islanders to add some scoring punch with a style consistent with its gritty, in-your-face style. But, while Smyth did give the Islanders a spark (5-10-15, even, in 18 games to finish the regular season), this ended up a big deal with a big price for a team that had too many other holes. Smyth chipped in a goal and three assists in the opening round of the playoffs, but the Islanders weren’t a match for Buffalo, who moved past the Islanders in a five-game series. Smyth headed back west to Colorado as an unrestricted free agent last summer, but has lost 18 games this season to a fractured ankle. The deal probably had more of a negative effect on Edmonton last season than a positive one for New York. The Oilers went 2-16-1 after the trade. Meanwhile…O’Marra has split time between Springfield in the AHL and Stockton of the ECHL this year, going 2-5-7, even, in 25 games with the AHL Falcons. Nilsson began the season in Springfield, but he was called up in late October to the Oilers. He’s 7-18-25, +2, in 50 games for Edmonton.

This year, there are arguably more-talented players available at the trading deadline – Marian Hossa, Brad Richards, Dan Boyle, Mats Sundin, and even Jaromir Jagr have been mentioned with some frequency as potential trade candidates. They’d fetch considerable returns, should any of them be moved. But will they help their new teams? At best, the results were mixed from last year. Good teams that rented players were still good, but it isn’t clear that the players acquired made them that much better. And the prices were steep.

If you look at the two teams that made it to the Stanley Cup finals last year – Anaheim and Ottawa – they made a total of four deals between them in the last week of trading. None of them involved a marquee player. Here are each of those deals:

Anaheim received Brad May – Colorado received Michael Hall

Anaheim received Doug O’Brien – Tampa Bay received Joe Rullier

Anaheim received Gerald Coleman – Tampa Bay received Shane O’Brien

Ottawa received Lawrence Nycholat – Washington received Andy Hedlund/2007 6^th round draft pick (Justin Taylor was selected)

Sure, these were teams that were largely set, but there is the temptation to find that last piece. There were other teams motivated to pursue rentals by other factors – Atlanta was looking to ensure its first trip to the playoffs in franchise history, for example. But looking back over the deals made last year in the last week, it doesn’t seem to The Peerless that the help these teams acquired was worth the long-term hits to their respective clubs, for the most part. One wonders especially about the Thrashers’ behavior in giving up a solid prospect defenseman (Braydon Coburn), a depth forward (Glen Metropolit), and three draft picks for a rental (Keith Tkachuk, who re-signed with his old team) and a defenseman who is now on the far side of 35 (Alexei Zhitnik).

There is occasionally the odd deal that really results in a tectonic shift for one or both of the teams. But it seems that more often than not, the deal that looks really good on paper doesn’t really have much – or at least the intended – effect on the ice.

The deadline approaches...is it worth all the trouble?

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

-- Macbeth, Act V, Scene 5

We have only a few shopping days until the trading deadline, and the Internet will be cracking with rumors, speculations, and Eklundized fantasies about who is going where for what. GM's will be working the phones and faxes to get to that handshake that supplies them with another asset for a playoff run or draft picks/prospects for the future.

Today, I'll be the idiot telling the tale of trading dealine past...last year, in fact. So, kids, let’s step back a year and look at some of the more noteworthy deals in the last week of the trading window leading up to deadline day to get some perspective on whether all this excitement is justified…

February 23, 2007…

Carolina acquires Anson Carter from Columbus for a 2008 fifth round draft pick.

Carolina was 31-25-7 on February 23^rd last year when they made this deal, which by appearances was an effort to add some scoring depth at a low price as the Hurricanes were trying to scrape their way into the playoffs. Good thing Carter came at a low price…in ten games he mustered a single point (one goal) and was a minus-3. The Hurricanes finished the season 9-11-1 after this trade and out of the playoffs in 11^th place in the Eastern Conference. Carter has not played a game in the NHL this season.

February 24^th…

Atlanta acquires Alexei Zhitnik from Philadelphia for Braydon Coburn.

Pretty much a classic case of swapping futures for a veteran boost now. Zhitnik, who had a solid resume in his stints in Buffalo and Long Island, struggled with a weak Flyers team when the Islanders traded him there earlier in the year (31 games, 3-10-13, -16). The Thrashers, though, were 31-22-10 and were fighting with Carolina in an effort to catch Tampa Bay for the Southeast Division championship. They had already moved defenseman Vitaly Vishnevski to Nashville earlier in the month (for center Eric Belanger) and perhaps thought themselves a bit thin on the blue line as the stretch run began. Zhitnik did give the Thrashers some veteran help on the blue line (18 games, 2-12-14, +4) to close the regular season, but like the rest of his club had a gruesome opening round series in the playoffs against the Rangers (four games, no points, -4). Meanwhile…Coburn is logging more than 20 minutes a night in Philadelphia and is 5-21-26, +12, as part of the Flyers’ resurgence from a dismal 2006-2007 year.

February 25^th…

Atlanta acquires Keith Tkachuk from St. Louis for (let’s see if we can do this in one breath…) Glen Metropolit, a 2007 first-round pick, a 2007 third-round pick, a 2008 second-round pick, and a conditional 2008 first-round pick (activated if Atlanta was to re-sign Tkachuk)

This is the definition of “rental.” You might even categorize it as “desperate rental,” mortgaging the future on a roll of the dice with a veteran who might have been closing in on 500 career goals (he had 466 at the time of the trade), but who hadn’t put up much in the way of quality numbers post-lockout (102 games, 35-44-77, -12). Tkachuk actually put up some decent numbers in 18 games with the Thrashers to finish the year 7-8-15, +8. But really…was it worth it? He was 1-2-3, +2 in the playoff sweep at the hands of the Rangers, then re-signed with St. Louis. Meanwhile, St. Louis packaged the 24^th pick in the 2007 draft with the 70^th overall pick and traded them to Calgary for the 18^th pick, where they selected defenseman Ian Cole. Cole is a freshman at Notre Dame, where he is 4-5-9, -5 in 30 games. Meanwhile…a relatively weak Thrasher prospect pool isn’t going to get any stronger with draft picks missing.

San Jose acquires Craig Rivet and a 2008 fifth-round pick from Montreal for Josh Gorges and a 2007 first round pick.

This is one of those “tweaking” kind of moves…San Jose was 38-23-1 at the time of the trade and wanted to reinforce its blue line to prepare for the playoffs. Can’t say it hurt the Sharks, as they finished the regular season 13-2-4. Rivet was solid, if not spectacular (1-7-8, +8 in 17 games). San Jose disposed of Nashville in five games in the opening playoff round, but dropped a disappointing series to Detroit in six games in the second round (Rivet was 2-3-5, -5 in 11 games). Meanwhile…Gorges is logging 15 minutes a game for Canadiens team fighting for the top spot in the East, and the 22^nd overall pick from the 2007 draft – forward Max Pacioretty – is a freshman at the University of Michigan, where he is 10-17-27, +18, in 27 games.

February 26^th…

New York Islanders acquire Richard Zednik from Washington for a 2007 second-round pick.

Another of the “rental” variety – it wouldn’t be the Islanders’ last. This one did not go well for New York. The Islanders were 31-23-8 at the time of the trade and trying to claw into the bottom half of the draw for the playoffs. Zednik played ten games for his new club, went 1-2-3, -2, in those, then left the club for personal reasons (the Islanders finished the year 9-7-4 after the trade). He returned to the ice for the opening round playoff series against Buffalo, but was held scoreless in the five-game loss. Zednik signed with Florida in the off-season. Meanwhile…the Capitals used the 46^th overall pick to draft defenseman Ted Ruth. Ruth is a freshman at Notre Dame, where the stay-at-home defenseman is 1-2-3, +13, in 29 games).

Vancouver acquires Brent Sopel from Los Angeles for a 2007 or 2008 second-round pick, and a 2008 fourth-round pick

Another rental…and a somewhat risky one at that. Sopel had missed 13 games earlier in the year with a broken ankle, part of a history of leg problems. Vancouver was 36-21-5 at the time of the trade and was on a seven game points-earned streak (6-0-1). They hardly missed a beat the rest of the year, going 13-5-2. Sopel was 1-4-5, even, in his 20 games for the Canucks. The Canucks escaped a seven-game series against Dallas in the opening round and lost a six-game series to eventual Cup-winner Anaheim in the second round. In 11 games, Sopel was scoreless and plus-1. He then signed with Chicago as an unrestricted free agent for a one-year deal in the off-season. Meanwhile…The Kings used the second-round pick to select Wayne Simmonds

Vancouver acquires Bryan Smolinski from Chicago for a conditional second-round draft pick

Last year, Vancouver was an offense-challenged team (they are this year, too). This was a case of hoping for a bargain to fill a void among the forwards. Again, Vancouver had a fast finish last season and stretched their season into the second round of the playoffs. But they remained an offense-challenged team – Smolinski contributed a 4-3-7, -2 line in 20 regular season games and 2-2-4, +2 in 12 playoff games. He went on to sign with Montreal in a one-year deal as an unrestricted free agent. Meanwhile…Chicago exercised its option to use the pick in 2007 (this got caught up in the Sopel deal above, believe it or not, as Chicago’s option was contingent on Los Angeles exercising its right to use Vancouver’s pick at #61 overall, which came from Anaheim as a result of the Ducks hiring coach Randy Carlyle…got all that?) and picked Akim Aliu.

This was all prelude to a rather hectic deadline day in which no fewer than 25 separate deals were made. We’ll look at those separately in an entry to follow…

In the meantime, look at the deals above and think about the days ahead, and ask yourself if there is a deal in the making that will spark a long playoff run?...or merely a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing?

Zednik Speaks...this afternoon at 1:00

It is being carried live at FloridaPanthers.com

Your number for the day...

1,588

No, that's not the number of games played by Chris Chelios in his career -- that would actually be 1,604. But you'd be getting warm as to its significance.

That is the number of games of combined experience held by Chris Clark, Brian Pothier, and Michael Nylander. These three players -- all on the shelf at the moment -- might very well have played their last games of the season for the Caps.

That is a lot of talent, experience, and depth the Caps are deprived of when they could use it most, as the season heads into the last 20-game stretch.

Think of that number, and compare it to last night's lineup, one in which five of the 18 skaters have 100 or fewer games of experience under their belts. If you look at the top five scorers on the club and account for Viktor Kozlov's 810 games of experience, the other four average less than two full seasons of play among them. Alex Ovechkin is the "grizzled vet" of that bunch with 224 games played.

With all the success the Caps have enjoyed over the past three months, it is also a fact that this team is very green. While several of the kids -- Mike Green, David Steckel, Tomas Fleischmann, for example -- have gone through this at the AHL level, this is their first taste of a tight playoff race at this level. We've never had to go through it, but we're guessing it's not quite the same.

There isn't any substitute for experience but experience, and the kids are getting that "trial by fire" training in front of our eyes. It means that as a team, the Caps will have to turn things up a couple of notches over the next six weeks, but whether they are sucessful in the end in getting to the playoffs, they will be a better team for what they are going through right now.

A one-point night: Islanders 3 - Caps 2 (OT/SO)

It’s like chili without the meat…pizza without the sauce…a hot fudge sundae without the fudge.

The Capitals are missing an important ingredient to their game, and it was on display last night in getting one point – not two – in a 3-2 shootout loss to the New York Islanders.

The missing ingredient?…the ability to close out an opponent when they’re down.

The Islanders came to town on a winning streak, but depleted due to injury. The Capitals did their part early, using goals by Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich to run out to a 2-0 lead in the first period. And then…

…nothing.

At least the Caps are getting the minimum daily requirement of iron in their diet. Well, Alex Ovechkin is, anyway. He rang the crossbar or the post several times, including in the shootout.

One might be inclined to give Islander goalie Rick DiPietro the credit for holding off the Caps, especially with fine saves on Semin and Matt Pettinger in overtime, but this one is on the Caps. It is a game they could have, and should have won…period. It is the kind of game they have to win if they are going to make the playoffs.

It was a season-high third straight game without a point for Ovechkin, who had only one shot on goal registered (he also had four blocked and missed six others…we’re thinking he’s still feeling the effects of the flu).

For the fourth time in this four-game series, the Caps were held to two goals and played what amounted to a game on the Islanders’ terms…again. They were outhit by the visitors (24-13) and coughed up the puck 32 times to giveaways or Islander takeaways. The Islanders more than doubled the blocked shots credited to the Caps – 21-10.

It was a game of firsts, in addition to the first three-game pointless streak of the season for Ovechkin:

- The first time the Caps have lost a game this year when leading after two periods

- The first point for Matt Pettinger (the primary assist on Semin’s goal) since January 21st, against Pittsburgh.

- The first time in six games in which Pettinger had a point and the Caps lost.

- The first assist of the year for goaltender Olaf Kolzig (the second assist on the Brooks Laich goal).
- The first time Ovechkin was held to a single shot on goal in more than two months (December 10th, against New Jersey)

And here's an odd stat…but for the five shots on goal by Mike Green, the defensemen had…

…none.

As a group, they only attempted three (Tom Poti and John Erskine each had one shot blocked, Shaone Morrisonn missed on his lone attempt). “Getting the puck to the net” apparently wasn’t in (or wasn’t paid sufficient attention) in the game plan. It’s worth noting that the Laich goal was scored off Green throwing the puck at the net.

At this time of year, every point is precious, and getting one is better than getting none. And while the 3-2 overtime loss to Atlanta last week might qualify as a “good” one-point game, this one has to qualify as one of the “bad” one-point games, as the Islanders are a team that the Caps – playing at home – should have and needed to beat.

Perhaps just as precious are games held in hand. The Caps squandered a chance to tighten the screws a little further on Carolina, on which they still hold two games in hand while trailing by two points. While it is possible that the Caps could tie the Hurricanes for the Southeast Division lead with a win in Raleigh on Saturday (and a Carolina loss in regulation tonight when they host Atlanta), the Caps could also find themselves trailing by six points when they face New Jersey on Sunday, should Carolina win tonight and on Saturday. This is a roundabout way of saying that whatever margin of error the Caps have had is rapidly bleeding away, made worse by giving up a point in a game such as last night’s. And, as if it needs mentioning at this point, last night’s disappointing result sets up this weekend’s back-to-back games against Carolina and New Jersey as of the “huge” variety.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Islanders, February 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!



Just sit right back and you'll hear a tale,
A tale of a fateful game
That’s played tonight on 7th Street
And “hockey” is its name.

The team had a long proud history,
But lately they’ve been lame.
Six skaters took the ice that night
For a three hour game, a three hour game.

The hitting started getting rough,
The visitors were tossed,
If they didn’t find a way to score some goals
The game would sure be lost, the game would sure be lost.

The team set ground on the shore of this uncharted hockey rink...



With Ted Nolan








The Captain too,




The millionaire...








...and his wife,

The movie star...

The defenseman and Miro Satan...

...Here on Fish Sticks' Isle.


So this is the tale of the Islanders,
They're here to meet their fate,
They'll have to make the best of things,
It's an uphill skate.

The captain and the head coach too,
Will do their very best,
To make the Caps uncomfortable,
In this playoff seeding test.

No phone, no lights no Zamboni,
Not a single luxury,
Like Bossy, Smith, and Gillies,
As primitive as can be.

So join us here tonight my friends,
You're sure to get a smile,
From seven stranded castaways,
Here on "Fish Sticks’ Isle."


Tonight, the Caps have the opportunity of using one of the three games in hand they hold over the Carolina Hurricanes to inch closer to the top spot in the Southeast Division. It also represents a chance to leap-frog tonight’s opponent – the New York Islanders – into tenth place in the Eastern Conference, two points behind the Bruins and Flyers (tied for the last two spots in the playoff seeding mix).

The Islanders are nothing, if not streaky. Starting on January 24th, they lost six consecutive games in regulation. Since then, however, they are 4-0-1, winning the last four in succession. It is a tale of two teams…

Goals for/against:

Six-game losing streak: 8/23
Five-game points streak: 19/14

Power play:

Six-game losing streak: 3/15 (20%)
Five-game points streak: 5/27 18.5%)

Penalty killing:

Six-game losing streak: 18/26 (69.2%)
Five-game points streak: 24/27 (88.9%)

Shots for/against-per game:

Six-game losing streak: 28.3/28.0
Five-game points streak: 29.2/23.6

There are several things to note here…the Islanders are a gritty (or chippy, depending on your point of view) team. They will take penalties. During the losing streak, they paid for those indiscretions with poor penalty killing. Such has not been the case during the points streak. They are going to the box as often, but they’ve kept the bleeding to a minimum on the scoreboard.

There is also the power play, not so much for its effectiveness, but its frequency – fewer than three a game in the losing streak, more than five a game in the points-earned streak. Almost doubling the frequency with which they enjoy the man advantage puts teams on their heels, unable to generate as much offense, and this is reflected in the shots against during each of the streaks.

The streaky nature of the Islanders’ recent performance is reflected in the results of their top scorers, as well:

Mike Comrie was 2-1-3, -6 during the losing streak, 2-4-6, -1 in the points-earned streak…
Bill Guerin: 0-1-1, -5/1-4-5, -2
Miroslav Satan: 0-2-2, -3/1-3-4, +2
Trent Hunter: 0-2-2, -2/1-3-4, +2
Ruslan Fedotenko: 0-2-2, -1/4-1-5, +1

Rick DiPietro hasn’t been immune from the streakiness in goal, either

Six-game losing streak: 0-5-0, 3.82, .864
Five-game points streak: 4-0-1, 2.78, .881

Much of his success in the points streak is in facing fewer shots, but he has stopped more of them, as well, resulting in allowing more than one goal less-per-game than during the losing streak. His play will be critical in the game tonight. Why?...

Although the Islanders come in on the heels of a five-game points streak, they do so as a beat-up squad. As Mike Vogel reports in the gameday, the visitors have eight players out or nursing injuries that could keep them out of tonight’s lineup. And, these are players of particular importance in a game against a team with as much skill among its top line forwards as the Caps. Andy Sutton and Brendan Witt are out, depriving the Islanders of a couple of big bodies to make the forwards uncomfortable. Jon Sim, who should be drawing a paycheck from the Caps while he’s out recuperating from a knee injury, has made a career playing against the Caps. Mike Sillinger, who owns a 56.3 percent faceoff winning percentage, won’t be there to battle David Steckel or Boyd Gordon, or perhaps take advantage of a relative weakness in Nicklas Backstrom’s game.

The Caps have more or less been marking time over the last two weeks with a 3-2-1 record. More to the point for tonight’s game, while the Caps started 2008 with a 7-1-0 record at home, they are 1-2-0 in their last three home games (the win coming in overtime against the Rangers on February 10th). With 12 of the last 22 games at home, the Caps have to dominate these games if they are to overtake Carolina.

If the Islanders are allowed to play this game on their terms, it will be a close-fought, often-chipppy, zone-to-zone game without a lot of scoring. Trouble for the Caps is, the three games so far have been played pretty much on the Islanders’ terms, the Islanders winning two of the three (one in overtime) and allowing only two goals to the Caps in each contest.

If the Caps play the game on their terms, it will mean getting an early lead (the Caps do not have a first period goal in any of the three games played to date), forcing the Islanders to open up their own game and give the Caps more room and opportunity.

The Islanders are on a roll, but they are not healthy. Neither are the Caps, with Chris Clark, Brian Pothier, and Michael Nylander out; and Tom Poti nursing an injury. One would like to think that it is a game where skill – that favoring the Caps – needs to take over. But this is a game where players like Matt Pettinger, Boyd Gordon, Brook Laich, David Steckel, and Matt Bradley can make a difference by offsetting the Islanders style with some grit (and maybe a timely score) of their own…

Caps 3 – Islanders 2

Sitting at the end of the bar...

Did you know that...

Alex Ovechkin has recorded ten or more shots in four games this year...the Caps are 3-0-1 in those games. He's registered fewer than five shots in 19 games...the Caps are 9-7-3 in those games.

Matt Pettinger has points in five games this year...the Caps are 5-0-0 in those games.

Last year, goaltender Olaf Kolzig faced more than 35 shots in a game 18 times. His record in such games: 12-4-2. This year, he has faced more than 35 shots only three times...he is 2-1-0 in such games.

On the other end of the spectrum, Kolzig is 2-2-0 in the four full games in which he played and faced fewer than 20 shots. Last year, he played only one full game in which he faced fewer than 20 shots...he lost that game.

Nicklas Backstrom is 8-32-40, +3 in 39 games since Thanksgiving.

The Capitals are 20-7-4 in games in which Viktor Kozlov has registered a point, 9-0-1 when he has scored a goal.

At the start of the year, you might have thought Michael Nylander, Chris Clark, Brian Pothier, Tom Poti, and Alexander Semin would be important cogs in the Caps' machine. Among them, they all have missed at least ten man-games to injury, a total of 114 and counting (Nylander, Clark and Pothier still out).

Among players taking at least 200 faceoffs this year, David Steckel leads all rookies with a 54.9 percent winning percentage. He's also seventh among rookies in hits (85), sixth in takeaways (27), and third among rookie forwards in blocked shots (35). Backstrom leads all rookies in takeaways (49) and is tied for fifth among rookie forwards in blocked shots (22).

Countdown...

We're just about a week from the trading deadline, and this is countdown week for the clubs in the Southeast Division. It gets even more complicated as the league's general managers being a three-day set of meetings in Naples, Florida. As tight as things are, it isn't yet clear who (if anyone) will be sellers or who (if anyone) will be buyers among the teams in the Southeast. The standings tell the tale:


And the schedule leading up to the February 26th deadline looks like this:

CAR: @NJD, BOS, ATL, WAS
WAS: NYI, @CAR, NJD
ATL: @CAR, @TOR
FLA: @PIT, BOS, @PHL, @NYR
TBL: @BUF, @NYI, BOS


Carolina would seem to have the team they will finish the season with, for better or worse. They moved Cory Stillman, picked up Sergei Samsonov, and lost Rod Brind'Amour to injury. Despite Samsonov's showing at least a pulse since donning the Hurricane jersey, we don't regard any of these three events as a plus for Carolina. The nickname, "Hurricane," might be an apt one for the rest of the season as they try to weather the storm with what they have.

Washington has cap room and trading assets. They could use a stay-at-home defenseman and/or a reliable winger. However, this is also something of audition week...Sami Lepisto got a look in the Tampa Bay game, and by accounts acquitted himself rather well. The revolving door among forwards not named "Semin" the second line -- the continuing effort to find a center and right wing to provide some consistent scoring without being an undue liability in their own end -- continues. Brooks Laich, Boyd Gordon, Tomas Fleischmann, Eric Fehr, the Hanson Brothers, Toe Blake, and Slapshot all have been given chances, it seems, with mixed (read: "not a lot of") success. Does that mean a trade is in the offing for any of these needs? We doubt it. The Caps might make a minor acquisition, but we don't foresee any splashy deadline deals. Then again, the below-the-radar deals sometimes can turn out quite well...down the road.

Atlanta has a dilemma. They are two points out of first -- hard to believe after their ghastly start -- but Marian Hossa is an unrestricted free agent at year's end, as are Bobby Holik, Pascal Dupuis, and Mark Recchi. But Hossa is the key player here. Does a team that is 3-1-0 in its last four games -- perhaps on the brink of a nice stretch run -- roll the dice and keep its second-leading scorer, or do they get at least something for Hossa (assuming he does not sign a contract extension)? Then there is the matter of the return. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution looks at five teams that might be in the running for Hossa, but the returns are likely to be very different, depending on which team "wins." A deal with Anaheim, for example, would be looking past this season, while one with San Jose (if Patrick Marleau is a part of it) would have this year more in mind. You would think that at least as much as any other team, what sort of week the Thrashers had this week would influence the kind of deal they would make...but they have only two more games to the trading deadline -- not enough to drop out, not enough to open any space between themselves and the other teams in the division. Atlanta probably has the hardest decisions to make this week -- and will be the most fun to watch as a result.

Florida has problems similar to (but not as varied as) Atlanta. Their decision is what to do with Olli Jokinen. Despite his being signed for two years after this (cap hit: $5.25 million), his name has been appearing in rumors over the past several weeks. They've stumbled lately (2-3-1 in their last six games). With four games before the deadline, but none of them with a Southeast Division opponent, the Panthers might have a better idea come Monday or Tuesday where they stand. In the end, we think Jokinen will remain a Panther. Now, will they be buyers if they get 6-8 points over these next eight days? Despite their power play humming along pretty nicely (fifth in the league at 20.1 percent), they are a somewhat offensively challenged team (19th in goals/game). They have some cap room, but this is not a team that is doing (or has done) especially well at the gate...assuming additional salary (as opposed to shedding Jokinen's) isn't clearly something this team is going to do, even if it will marginally improve their playoff chances.

Tampa Bay...what they need isn't a mystery -- a goaltender. They don't have a reliable one, and it will be sometime before prospects such as Karri Ramo or Riku Helenius are ready to step in. It would seem unlikely that they could fill the short term netminding need in a deadline deal. They do have a dilemma, though, and it is rather stark...they are 4-1-1 in their last six games, roughly coinciding with the return of defenseman Dan Boyle to the lineup. Trouble is, he is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, and he is arguably the Lightning's most attractive trading asset. They will not lack for offers. The Lightning might also be inclined to shop Vaclav Prospal, who had some unkind words for his coach after a game last week -- he is also a UFA at season's end. Of the big three of Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and Martin St. Louis, the latter two are each signed through the 2010-2011 season at cap hits of $7.8 million and $5.25 million, respectively. Richards has had, what for him, is an off season (17-32-49, -25, that last number being last in the NHL). Lecavalier -- signed through next season -- is the best player in the game, according to some. None of those three are going anywhere.

In the end, we think Atlanta will move Hossa (we're thinking "Montreal," which has prospects they could move), the Lightning will move Boyle (we're thinking "San Jose"), and the Panthers will keep Jokinen. Carolina and the Caps will sit things out.

This could be an odd, if important "weeding out" kind of week for the Southeast. There aren't enough intra-divisional games of the "four point" variety to enable more separation among the clubs. Only Carolina has more than one such game, and two clubs -- Florida and Tampa Bay (who probably could use them more than any team) have none. Seven of the 16 games these clubs will play before the deadline are against Atlantic Division teams. For those of you keeping score at home, four of the Atlantic's five teams are in the top seven in the East, and they are a combined 44-21-11 against the Southeast this season.

Carolina probably has the most to gain -- and the most to lose -- in their schedule between now and the deadline. They have two games against divisional opponents (Atlanta and Washington), and they have only a game against New Jersey among Atlantic teams. Florida has what looks like the roughest road, with all three of their games against Atlantic teams on the road.

The Caps will have two games in hand on the Hurricanes when the deadline comes next Tuesday. That will make the game on Saturday in Carolina a big one for both teams. Things set up pretty well for the Caps this week with two home games sandwiching the game in Carolina (although one will be the back end of a back-to-back, played against the Devils on Sunday afternoon). They will be getting the Islanders on Wednesday, who before running off a three game winning streak were 0-6-1 in their previous seven and looking like they were dropping out of the Eastern Conference race.

This should be a fun week.

The Christmas Present

The old man still has some juice left in him, it would seem.

We're not talking about Father Christmas, but rather Olaf Kolzig, goaltender for the Washington Capitals.

Since Christmas, Kolzig is 11-3-2 in 17 games with a 3.04 GAA and .883 save percentage. Those latter two numbers are not especially noteworthy (although the one that matters is the 11-3-2 line). But in his last four contests, he is 3-0-1, 2.20, .934. Each of those four decisions represent games with points earned (seven of a possible eight) against Eastern Conference teams, two of them against Southeast Division clubs.

That's what the Caps are going to need as they head into their last 22 games of the regular season.



photo: Phillip MacCallum/Getty Images

A no-point night...Panthers 4 - Caps 2

We're feeling under the weather this morning (maybe it was a result of watching that game last night), so you folks can have at it.

What's the problem?...

- Have the Caps hit a "wall?"

- Have they achieved their high water mark?

- Is this merely a speed bump on the way to a division crown?

- Are injuries finally taking their toll?

...that's 1-2-1 in their last four games, during which they've scored eight goals (wasting decent, if at times uneven, goaltending...nine goals -- not counting last night's empty netter -- in these four games). They have the worst last-ten game record among SE division teams (5-4-1). And, after starting 6-1-1 in the SE under Bruce Boudreau, they are now 0-3-1 in their last four intra-divisional games.

Time to panic?...hardly. But with 23 games to go, this is not the time to be embarking on a slump, either.

Are you a Wilson High Hockey supporter?...you ought to be

And here is your chance, as the crew of On Frozen Blog explains...

For the price of a movie ticket — $10 — we would ask each and every reader of these six blogs living in or near D.C. to make Friday night, February 29 one for hockey history in Washington. At 7:00 p.m. that evening at the Clyde’s of Gallery Place we’ll gather upstairs to watch the Caps take on the Devils in New Jersey, throw back a few puck sodas, and try and raise some urgently needed money for this desperate and inspiring hockey club.

Many of Wilson’s players never knew of hockey before being introduced to it by Paul McKenzie. We want to help keep these kids skating. Badly.

Hockey, rubbing elbows with team staff from Hershey and Washington, fans galore...like the OFB guys say, "It promises to be a memorable evening for an eminently worthy cause."

It's Hockey Jersey Day!

Today is "Hockey Jersey Day," the kickoff to Hockey Weekend Across America sponsored by USA Hockey.

So dust off that jersey and wear it proudly to school...maybe even if you're going to work, too.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps in Florida Edition

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s a double dip in Florida, as the Caps take on the Tampida Bay Panthning tonight and tomorrow night in the Sunshine State.

It’s big…really big…Space Mountain big. It’s the last part of the road trip through most of the Southeast Division, and the Caps find themselves once more looking up at the Carolina Hurricanes, who beat Pittsburgh last night, 4-2. The win came at a heavy price though, as captain and Rock of Gibraltar for the club, Rod Brind’Amour, was lost for 4-6 months to a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

But this is a weekend on the road for the Caps, and we thought we’d get the advice of the experts on what makes a good road trip. We have with us Max Rockatansky, who is something of a cult hero for road warriors. Max, welcome…

Max: [stares off into space]

Max, you’ve spent a lot of time on the road. What’s it like out there?

Max: ”It's that rat circus out there. I'm beginning to enjoy it. Look, any longer out on that road and I'm one of them, a terminal psychotic, except that I've got this bronze badge that says that I'm one of the good guys.”

Like a hockey enforcer?

Max: “yeah…”

So…what did you do before all this?

Max: “I was a cop, a driver.”

But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster…we also have with us those jokemeisters of the road, Bing Crosby and Bob Hope. Guys, you made a lot of “road” movies. What’s the secret to sticking together as a team out there?

Bob: “We never got along...we were always trying to see who could score with Dorothy Lamour.”

Bing: “Swine!"

Bob: “Pig!”

Bing: “That's the same as swine.”

Bob: “All right. Ham!”

While those two figure out which end of the pig is up, we’ve got John Blutarsky and Eric Stratton, two guys who have spent a fair amount of time on “road trips.” Guys, the Caps lost the first game of this trip in a shootout. Is it, “game over?”

JB: “Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when Eye-rack bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!”

ES: “Eye-rack?”

Forget it, he's rolling.

JB: “And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough...the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go!"

Is he for real?

ES: “You have no idea…”

JB: “What the #@$& happened to the guys I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? ‘Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble.’ Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Jokinen, he's a dead man! Lecavalier, dead! St. Lou-eeeeeeeeeeeeee...”

ES: “Dead! Bluto's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part."

JB: “We're just the guys to do it.”

Well, let’s hope the Caps aren't in the futile and stupid business, because a back-to-back on the road in against divisional rivals with whom they are fighting for playoff spots is a stern test of skill and mettle.

Florida comes into tonight’s game with a decent record over their last seven games, but currently on something of a sour note:

Record (last seven games): 4-2-1, but winless in their last two
Goals for/against: 28/20
Power Play: 10/32 (31.3%)
Penalty killing: 25/32 (78.1%)

The power play has been effective and consistent for the Panthers. They have at least one power play goal in six of their last seven games, and there are three multiple power play goal games in this brief stretch. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they also given up at least one power play goal in five of the six games. Special teams have been an adventure.

Florida has spread their scoring around, with 18 skaters and goalie Tomas Vokoun registering at least a point. Three players tie for nine points in this stretch. Nathan Horton is 6-3-9, and Olli Jokinen is 6-3-9. However, the third player in this group witn nine points – Richard Zednik (6-3-9, including a hat trick against Toronto on February 5th) remains in a Buffalo hospital after the neck injury he sustained on Sunday night in Buffalo. The Panthers lost that game in Buffalo on Sunday, then lost in overtime to Montreal on Wednesday. If there has been some lack of focus in the aftermath of that gruesome injury to Zednik, it would be understandable. But with as much at stake as there is these days in a game such as that to be played tonight, one should not expect the Panthers to be anything else but ready. With a 3-2 record against the Caps this year, they should be confident, too.

Tampa Bay presents a different set of problems. Although they are 2-3-0 against the Caps this year (and losers of their last two), they are 5-1-1 in their last seven games. While the Lightning have their “big three-plus-one” to worry about (Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Brad Richards...and Vaclav Prospal), the recent resurgence has come with the return of defenseman Dan Boyle to the lineup. After missing 36 games due to his own skate-related injury, Boyle scored two goals in his first game back, and in the last seven games for the Lightning is 1-4-5, +5, while lending a sense of stability to the blue line and the club in general. He’s had considerable success against the Caps in the past (7-22-29, +9, in 42 career games), and his return signals that the Lightning are once more a team to be reckoned with, which probably means a further tightening of the Southeast race.

Tampa wouldn’t be Tampa without their soap opera moments, though, and this week’s involves Prospal who, after a win against Montreal on Tuesday had some impolitic words thought to be directed at his coach, John Tortorella (himself not shy about tossing players under the bus in public). Whether this prompts a move of the forward (the big three now perhaps staying in the wake of the sale of the club) is something to watch in the days ahead. Another to watch will be Boyle, as he is an unrestricted free agent at the end of this year. With Tampa so top-heavy in salary, he could be moved as well, although the marriage of his return to the lineup and the recent success of the Lightning make that a difficult decision.

For Caps fans, scoreboard watching will become the order of the day (it’s been so long since one could indulge such luxuries), but for the club, it’s simple…win, and things take care of themselves, no matter what anyone else does. In the immortal words of John “Bluto” Blutarsky….”lets DO IT!”

Caps 4 – Panthers 3

Caps 5 – Lightning 3

164 goals and secondary scoring

The Caps have 164 goals this year. Of that total, Alex Ovechkin has 48 (29.3 percent). Pleasant as that is, there is a flip side...one not so pleasant.

After Ovechkin, the next leading Caps goal scorer is Mike Green -- a defenseman -- with 15. Alexander Semin is the next highest goal-scoring forward with 14. Having done this in only 39 games (a 29-goal pace for a full year), one might take comfort in the fact that at least Semin can provide some scoring balance.

But the Caps are still a team that lacks consistent supplemental scoring support. Given the constant that Ovechkin seems to be, when the Caps get that supplemental scoring lift, they are formidable. When they don't...well, you get last night.

This is a problem that could solve itself if Semin can maintain or improve upon his pace after such a sluggish start due to injury. And, getting Chris Clark back could provide a lift as well. Brooks Laich has had a career year in goal scoring (nine, and counting), but getting some more out of the lower half of the forward lines would really be helpful. The trio of Matt Pettinger, Boyd Gordon, and Clark, which one doofus thought could combine for 50 goals this year, has 12 among them.

Perversely, the Caps might be in the best position in the Southeast to get such a lift from in-house sources as we move to the last 24 games of the season, depending on what their intra-division rivals do.

Carolina already has moved their second leading goal scorer (Cory Stillman, with 21), although they still have Ray Whitney (21) providing some support. Atlanta might move Marian Hossa (his 25 goals is second on the Thrashers to Ilya Kovalchuk's 39) before the trading deadline. One wonders if Tampa Bay will move Vaclav Prospal and his 25 goals in response to some controversy over his commentary that might have been construed as opinion about his coach. Then there is the matter of whether Florida will or will not move Olli Jokinen, who actually leads his team in goal scoring.

At a time of year when GMs are evaluated by fans by the ferocity with which they consummate deals, the team that stands pat might win for the others losing.

Only in hockey...

...would you find a "Bobble-fists Night." In this instance, it is the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins honoring Dennis Bonvie on March 28th...

...Bonvie has accumulated 4,290 penalty minutes in his AHL career with eight teams. He also has 311 minutes in 92 NHL games. We're guessing there weren't a lot of those minutes logged for hooking.

A one-point night: Thrashers 3 - Caps 2 (OT/SO)

There are bad one-point games, and there are good one-point games. Last night’s 3-2 shootout loss to the Atlanta Thrashers qualifies as the latter as the Caps finally solved Thrasher goalie Kari Lehtonen for the tying goal in regulation with less than two minutes to play to earn the point.

It was a game that, for the Caps, involved a lot of unproductive energy. They pounded 41 shots at Lehtonen, but there were precious few of the rebound or follow up variety. It is probably instructive that the Caps’ first goal of the contest was scored when an Alex Ovechkin shot pinballed onto the stick of Viktor Kozlov, who had nothing but net to shoot at. For the rest of the game, Lehtonen was given the chance to see shots clearly and handle them cleanly.

Lehtonen also played Sidney Crosby for a moment, hitting Marian Hossa with a “long bomb” of a pass that Hossa took almost at the Caps’ blue line with less than a minute to go in the second period. Hossa scored what could be his last goal at home as a Thrasher (he is rumored to be on the trading block, and Atlanta does not return home until after the trading deadline) by skating in alone on goaltender Olaf Kolzig and sweeping the puck under Kolzig’s right pad.

Washington clearly had the territorial advantage in the game, especially in the first and third periods. And despite puring shot after shot at Lehtonen, no more than the usual level of frustration seemed to grip the club. At least they were consistent in continuing to shoot the puck. The persistence paid off with 1:21 left in the third period when Alex Ovechkin skated in and ripped a shot between Lehtonen’s glove and body for his 48^th goal of the season.

The result left the Southeast Division a muddle. Three teams sit atop the division with 60 points. And, the teams seem to have settled into a pattern of close-to-.500 play as the record over each of their last ten games suggests:

The game was remarkable in one respect. A team getting off 41 shots is a team that has the puck a lot of the time. But the Caps didn’t generally start plays with the puck. The Thrashers won 39 of 60 draws (65 percent). Only David Steckel finished with more wins than losses in the circle (7-for-13). The trio of Bobby Holik, Eric Perrin, and Todd White won 32 of 49 draws.

Nicklas Backstrom had a pair of assists to tie Chicago’s Patrick Kane atop the rookie scoring list with 47 points apiece. While the rookie of the year race seems destined to come down to those two players, Tobias Enstrom continued to make a case for his efforts as well. The Thrasher defenseman led the club in ice time last night (26:32) and contributed an assist on the Eric Perrin goal that opened the scoring for the Thrashers. Enstrom is fourth among rookie scorers (35 points, 14 more than the next closest defenseman – Dallas’ Matt Niskanen) and is plus-three for a team whose defense is often a bit lead-footed.

The game was decided by Bettman’s Gimmick when Eric Perrin scored on a move that Caps TV announcers Joe Beninati and Craig Laughlin described even before Perrin skated into the center circle to take the puck (skate in, fake backhand, pull puck across, lift forehand over goalie’s pad) and Slava Kozlov circled wide right, swooped in and snapped a shot past Kolzig’s right pad. For the Caps, Alexander Semin fired the puck wide to Lehtonen’s right, and Lehtonen closed the Caps out when he bobbled a shot by Boyd Gordon, but swiped the puck off the goal line to earn for the Thrashers the extra standings point.

Two points separates first and fourth in the division now, so each day promises a shakeup of the standings unless a team can put a streak together. Since the club “officially reached mediocrity” on January 19^th, they’ve slowed their torrid pace under Bruce Boudreau. The 6-4-1 record is a bit off from the 15-7-4 pace set in the first 26 games under Boudreau, and it might be a reflection of the higher stakes for which games are being played and the continuing holes in the lineup left by the absences of Chris Clark and Brian Pothier.

The good way to look at this, perhaps, is that the Caps have something of a foothold on the top spot (they “lead” the division based on fewest games played among those tied with them at 60 points), and they have divisional games to come that present the opportunity to build on that.

Up next is the Florida trip – the Panthers and Lightning – and a chance to open a bit of room between themselves and those teams, at least. When the Caps return home next Thursday to take on the Islanders, they could be solidly in first place…

…they could find themselves in fourth place, too.