Your First Round Prognostos...Ducks vs. Stars

And, finally…

Anaheim Ducks (4) vs. Dallas Stars (5)

Season series:

Oct. 20: at Stars 3, Ducks 1
Nov. 5: Stars 5 at Ducks 0
Nov. 21: at Stars 2, Ducks 1
Jan. 15: at Ducks 4, Stars 2
Jan. 20: at Stars 5, Ducks 2
Feb. 15: Stars 4 at Ducks 2
Mar. 19: Ducks 2 at Stars 1
Mar. 30: at Ducks 3, Stars 2 (SO)

The Peerless pronounced last summer that it was a mortal lock that the Ducks would not repeat as Stanley Cup winner. Last July, we said…

“…the short off-season is really an underrated factor in a club's likelihood for success in the following season. Anaheim will have a 115-day break between the Cup-clinching game on June 6th and opening night of the 2007-2008 season on September 29th. Compare that with baseball (St. Louis had 155 days from their World Series-clincher in 2006 to opening day 2007), football (the Colts will have 214 days from their Super Bowl win in February to opening night in September), and basketball (the Miami Heat had 133 days from winning the NBA title in June 2006 to opening night in October). A team's ability (or inability) to refresh after a grueling playoff grind that requires 16 wins over four series from mid-April to early-June might be the factor to pay attention to in figuring out who should or should not be a favorite in the Cup sweepstakes the following year.”

Well, wily Brian Burke figured out a way around that problem. Don’t have your best two-way defenseman play his first game until December 16^th,, and don’t have your top goal scorer from the previous year play his first game until February 5^th. Call it the “Roger Clemens” strategy. Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne come into these playoffs with the rust scraped away, but perhaps fresher than a lot of their counterparts. Here is the lowdown on the Ducks’ performance before and after the arrivals…

As far as the series against the Stars was concerned, the Stars were 3-0-0 before both reported, 1-1-0 after Niedermayer reported (but before Selanne did), and 1-1-1 after both had rejoined the Ducks. This does not bode well for the Stars…or anyone else for that matter. Overall, though, here is how the numbers played out for Anaheim:

Goals for/against: 14/24
Power play goals for/against: 8/9
Even-strength goals for/against: 6/14
Power play: 8/45 (17.8%)
Penalty killing: 29/38 (76.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 2-1-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 0-2-0

Regarding Anaheim, their leading scorers had somewhat mixed results against the Stars:

Ryan Getzlaf: 2-8-10, -2
Corey Perry: 1-4-5, -3 (six games)
Chris Kunitz: 2-1-3, -3
Chris Pronger: 1-2-3, -6 (six games)
Todd Bertuzzi: 2-1-3, -3 (six games)

As for Selanne and Niedermayer, Selanne was 0-3-3, -2 in three games against the Stars, while Niedermayer was 2-3-5, -1 in five games. But here is the stunning statistic…Anaheim allowed 96 goals in its first 34 games – a 2.82/game average. Over the last 48 games, the Ducks allowed 88 goals – 1.83/game. The Achilles heel for the Ducks is scoring. They have, by far, the worst per-game scoring average (2.24) among Western Conference playoff teams (San Jose is next: 2.63/game). The addition of Selanne in early February was coincidental with some difference, but not as dramatic as on the defensive side of the ledger. Before Selanne arrived, the Ducks averaged 2.36 goals/game. After his arrival, they averaged 2.50 goals/game.

In goal, J-S Giguere did not have a particularly good year against the Stars: 3-5-0, 2.92, .877. However, he gave up only 24 goals in his last 18 regular season games, with two shutouts and a total of 16 games in which he allowed two or fewer goals.

If there is a team that might derail the Ducks, it is the Stars. They have a similar look about them, and they are statistically a superior team in several respects – better offense (2.89 goals/game to 2.40), power play (18.1% to 16.6%), penalty killing (85.5% to 83.1%). What Anaheim does better will be important, though – better 5-on-5 play (ratio for/against of 1.17 to 1.11 for Dallas), better winning percentage when scoring first (.788 to .625), and better at holding a late lead (winning percentage when leading after two of .909 to .775 for the Stars).

The Stars’ top scorers:

Mike Ribiero: 3-7-10, +6
Brenden Morrow: 5-2-7, +8
Mike Modano: 2-3-5, +1
Niklas Hagman: 5-1-6, +2
Jere Lehtinen: 2-6-8, +5 (six games)

There are two other players to note here. The first is Brad Richards. He came to the Stars from Tampa Bay at the trading deadline, bringing his 51 points – but a -25 – with him. In 12 games with Dallas, he was 2-9-11, -2. Not bad, but he had five assists and was +2 in his first game upon arriving. After that…2-4-6, -4 in 11 games. If the Stars are going to win this series, Richards has to step up.

The other is Sergei Zubov. He is not available for at least Round 1, having had surgery for a sports hernia last week. What this means for the Stars is that the six defensemen likely to dress have precisely the number of games of playoff experience as Chris Pronger will bring to this series (128), and Pronger does not lead the Ducks in playoff experience. That would be Niedermayer, who has 183 games of experience, and only twice in the last seven years has a team on which Niedermayer played not advanced past the first round. Dallas will have its work cut out for them on the back line.

Which brings us to Marty Turco. His heroic effort against Vancouver in last year’s first round (1.29 GAA, .952 save percentage in a seven-game loss to the Canucks) should have retired the idea that he was not a playoff kind of goaltender. But he is still only 11-18 in his playoff career. He was 4-2-1, 1.85, .922 against Anaheim this year, but given his playoff history, those numbers are likely to be discounted quite a bit.

Why Anaheim will win…

Selanne and Niedermayer are veterans who are comparatively rested. They were important, if not the most important cogs among the skaters in last year’s Cup run. And if this is going to be a low-scoring, closely fought series (we expect it will be), there will be an important stat to keep in mind -- Giguere is 12-1 in overtime games in the playoffs.

Why Dallas will win…

Anaheim won’t intimidate them. Dallas played them often and played them successfully this year. Turco has played well against the Ducks, and he is the sort of feisty character that can rise to the occasion and hold his own against the rough-and-tumble Ducks.

Dallas’ chance in this one probably hinge on Turco being able to steal games. He won’t be able to steal enough of them.

Anaheim in six.

Your First Round Prognostos...Wild vs. Avalanche

Next on our tour of the Western Conference first round matchups…

Minnesota Wild (3) vs. Colorado Avalanche (6)

Season series:

Oct. 21: at Wild 3, Avalanche 2
Oct. 28: at Avalanche 3, Wild 1
Nov. 11: at Avalanche 4, Wild 2
Nov. 18: at Wild 4, Avalanche 1
Jan. 24: Wild 3 at Avalanche 2
Mar. 17: at Wild 3, Avalanche 1
Mar. 30: at Wild 3, Avalanche 2 (OT)
Apr. 6: at Avalanche 4, Wild 3 (SO)

Here is a series that might fly under the radar in its entirety. A pity…although the Wild have a 5-2-1 record in this series, it has been generally hard and evenly fought, with half of the contests of the one-goal variety, and two of those going to extra time. And, both teams come into this series on mini-runs…Minnesota was 4-0-1 in the last five games of the regular season; Colorado was 5-0-1. They did it in rather different ways. Colorado averaged 3.5 goals of offense in their 5-0-1 finish, while Minnesota averaged allowing only 1.4 goals a game in their five-game season-ending streak. Minnesota had the advantage in the season series between the two teams:

Goals for/against: 22/18
Power play goals for/against: 9/7
Even-strength goals for/against: 13/11
Power play: 9/28 (32.1%)
Penalty killing: 26/33 (78.8%)
Record, one-goal games: 4-0-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-0-0

Minnesota made the most of an average number (3.5/game) of power plays in this series. In fact, it is the one part of their otherwise average offense (18^th in goals/game) that shines. They finished seventh in the league in power play conversion rate (18.9%). It just isn’t a club that draws a lot of penalties (21^st in total power play opportunities).

Looking at the Wild top scorers and their performances in this series:

Marian Gaborik: 2-2-4, even (six games)
Pierre Marc-Bouchard: 1-3-4, even
Brian Rolston: 4-4-8, +2
Pavol Demitra: 1-6-7, +1 (five games)
Brent Burns: 2-3-5, +1
Mikko Koivu: 1-3-4, +3 (seven games)

The Wild is not a team that scores a lot, but if they are going to get something from somewhere else, it might be Stephane Veilleux. He had only 11 goals in 77 games this year, but did go 2-1-3, +2 in seven games against Colorado.

In goal, Niklas Backstrom had a fine year – 33-13-8, 2.30, .920. He had a better one against Colorado – 4-1-0, 1.98, .930. Given the difficulty the Wild have on offense from time to time, one would think he’d have to continue at this level of performance.

Colorado might create the impression of being a much better offense than that of Minnesota, but that is somewhat deceptive. The Avalanche averaged only 0.05 goals/game more than did the Wild this year. Where they are substantially superior is in five-on-five play. Colorado finished third in the league this year in five-on-five goals for/against ratio (Minnesota was 19^th). If Colorado can stay out of the box (and they did only allow 3.5 power plays/game this year against the Wild), this could be a long series.

Looking at the top scorers for the Avalanche this year and their success against the Wild:

Paul Stastny: 3-4-7, even (seven games)
Andrew Brunette: 2-1-3, even
Milan Hejduk: 2-2-4, even (six games)
Wojtek Wolski: 3-4-7, +4 (seven games)
Joe Sakic: 2-6-8, +2 (seven games)

The key, though, for the Avalanche might be three other players – two who will start the series and one who won’t. First, the one who won’t – Marek Svatos is out with a knee injury. His 26 goals in 62 games is quite a bit of offense to be missing. As for the two who will be there, both – Ryan Smyth and Peter Forsberg – have missed a lot of time this year. Smyth missed 27 games to injury this year and is only 3-6-9, +1, in 19 games since returning on Valentine’s Day from a prolonged absence. Forsberg joined the team in March and is 1-13-14, +7 in nine games. But, can he stay healthy?

In goal, Jose Theodore has had something of a renaissance this year. Although his 28-21-3, 2.44, .910, three shutout performance doesn’t put him among the league leaders, he finished the season 5-0-1, 2.42, .912, with one shutout. He had a shootout win and overtime loss to the Wild in that stretch.

Why Minnesota will win…

Defense and goaltending wins at this time of year. It is a style with which the Wild is comfortable. Both special team squads are superior to those of Colorado – Minnesota ranks in the top ten in both power play and penalty killing; Colorado is in the bottom ten in both.

Why Colorado will win…

Having Smyth and Forsberg in the lineup helps. And there is this – the Avalanche had 325 man-games lost to injury this year. No playoff team in the west had more (only Boston among all playoff teams had more). It is a team that is probably as healthy as it is going to get, and still they managed a sixth place finish and a season-series winning record over the Wild. They are a pretty resilient bunch.

We like Colorado’s chances to advance from this round, provided Forsberg doesn’t get hurt…

Colorado in seven.

Your first round prognostos...Sharks vs. Flames

Next up…

San Jose Sharks (2) vs. Calgary Flames (7)

Season series:

Oct. 22: Sharks 4 at Flames 1
Jan. 3: Flames 3 at Sharks 2 (OT)
Jan. 30: at Flames 5, Sharks 4
Feb. 12: Flames 4 at Sharks 3 (OT)

Are the Sharks the Red Wings-lite? 43-44-51 wins the last three seasons, and only one conference final to show for it. This time, they come into the playoffs with a 49-win season and as the hottest team in the league…sort of.

From February 21^st through April 1^st, the Sharks did not lose a game in regulation – 18-0-2 over a 20 game stretch. Then, they lost to the Los Angeles Kings and again to the Dallas Stars in the regular season finale. So…are the Sharks the 18-0-2 team that was closing the season, or are they the good, but unremarkably so (31-21-8 before that 20-game run) squad that played through February 20^th? And, does losing in the last two take some lustre off of the long streak?

Certainly the Flames will provide a suitable test for that question, for the Sharks could only manage a 1-1-2 record against the Flames before that 20-game streak. For the Sharks in those four games:

Goals for/against: 13/12
Power play goals for/against: 5/2
Even-strength goals for/against: 7/9
Power play: 5/20 (25.0%)
Penalty killing: 10/12 (83.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 0-1-2
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-0-0

The Red Wing analogy extends to the special teams. Getting 20 chances in four games, especially compared with only 12 for Calgary, is quite an advantage for the Sharks. San Jose scored at least one power play goal in each game of this series, and had two in its 4-1 win in October. It has been an important ingredient to scratching out four of a possible eight points out of this series.

Looking at the Sharks’ top scorers and their performances in this series:

Joe Thornton: 0-1-1, -4
Milan Mihalek: 3-1-4, even
Patrick Marleau: 1-0-1, -1
Joe Pavelski: 0-0-0, +2
Jonathan Cheechoo: 1-2-3, -2

It isn’t a particularly dominating performance from the top guns. If there is someone else to watch, it would be Patrick Rismiller, who has goals in each of the last two games against the Flames, although he has only one goal in 26 games since scoring against Calgary on February 12^th.

The “X” factor for the Sharks might be defenseman Brian Campbell. Since coming to the Sharks in a trade With Buffalo, he is 3-16-19, +9 in 20 games. He provides some spark from the blue line that wasn’t there for the Sharks over the first 60 games or so.

In goal, Evgeni Nabokov is a leading Vezina Trophy candidate, and deservedly so. He appeared in 77 games, going 46-21-8, 2.14, .910. Calgary, however, appeared to solve him as well as anyone could this year. Nabokov is only 1-1-2, 3.16, .849 against the Flames.

It’s been quite a while since Calgary faced the Sharks. In the 25 games since they last met, the Flames are 13-10-2, 6-7-0 in their last 13. It is not a team coming in on a high. But they have had success against the Sharks, with some solid performance from their top guns:

Jarome Iginla: 3-1-4, +2
Kristian Huselius: 0-3-3, -1
Daymond Langkow: 2-2-4, +1
Dion Phaneuf: 2-3-5, +1
Alex Tanguay: 1-2-3, +2

The Sharks also have three goals and an assist from Owen Nolan. If the Flames can get that kind of support from guys like Matthew Lombardi (one assist in four games) or Craig Conway (two assists in four games), it would be that much more pressure on the Sharks. Conroy has been injured, but is expected to return for Game 1.

Miikka Kiprusoff had a solid year in goal. Sometimes, he gets somewhat lost in the shuffle of any discussion of top goalies – Brodeur, Luongo, and this year Nabokov seem to dominate that discussion – but he has been a rock for the Flames. He appeared in 76 games and finished fourth in the league in total minutes played. However, his numbers this year show some slippage from last year’s, which were down from the previous year. From a 42-20-11, 2.07, .923 season two years ago, he was 39-26-10, 2.69, .906 this year. It’s not a lot of slippage, but some. He’s going to need the Flames to score some in front of him.

Why San Jose will win…

Discounting the last two games, this club was on fire to close the year, outscoring their opponents 59-35 in their 18-0-2 run. The Sharks have the size to counter the hard-working style Calgary will bring. The addition of Brian Campbell at the trading deadline gave the Sharks more scoring balance. If it comes down to special teams, the Sharks have the best penalty killers in the league, and on both sides of special teams they outrank the Flames by a wide margin.

Why Calgary will win…

They, like the Predators playing the Red Wings, are the sort of team that can give this opponent fits. In Jarome Iginla and Dion Phaneuf, the Flames have high-end skill players who are not afraid of – and in fact relish – mixing it up physically. Statistically, they are unimpressive, especially on special teams (being second overall in total times shorthanded is one statistic that comes jumping off the page, especially since San Jose has the third fewest such situations faced and, more important, is sixth in total power plays awarded), but they are greater than the sum of their parts and have had success against this team this year.

We’re going with the upset in this one, the Sharks frustration at not being able to advance to a final to continue…

Calgary in seven.

Your first round prognostos...Red Wings vs. Predators

Turning our attention to the Western Conference…

Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. Nashville Predators (8)

Season series:

Nov. 7: at Red Wings 3, Predators 2 (SO)
Nov. 22: at Predators 3, Red Wings 2
Dec. 10: Red Wings 2 at Predators 1
Feb. 12: at Predators 4, Red Wings 2
Mar. 9: at Red Wings 4, Predators 3
Mar. 15: Predators 3 at Red Wings 1
Mar. 20: Red Wings 6 at Predators 3
Mar. 30: at Red Wings 1, Predators 0 (OT)

The Red Wings have averaged 51 wins a year over the past four seasons leading to this one. They averaged scoring 251 goals, allowing 200. They also have no championships and made it to the Western Conference final only once. This year, they won 54 games, scored 257 goals, allowed 184.

Part of a pattern?

The Red Wings are a very good team. Over an 82-game season, their superior depth and skill at both ends of the ice is the sort that can post 50-plus wins on a consistent basis. But what about over seven games? Well, they played eight against the Predators this year – a team that was given little chance of success this year. They finished 5-3-0, two of those wins coming in extra time. And it is not as if the Red Wings have been statistically dominant, with a notable exception:

Goals for/against: 20/19
Power play goals for/against: 10/4
Even-strength goals for/against: 10/14
Power play: 10/53 (18.9%)
Penalty killing: 41/45 (91.1%)
Record, one-goal games: 4-1-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-0

The Red Wings have averaged 6.6 power play opportunities a game in this series (they averaged 4.6/game against the rest of the league for the season). That is a lot of time, on the Predators’ part, to be expending effort against what is already a prolific offense.

Looking at the Red Wing top scorers, and their success against the Predators:

Pavel Datsyuk: 3-3-6, even
Henrik Zetterberg: 1-4-5, -5
Nicklas Lidstrom: 0-4-4, -4
Brian Rafalski: 1-1-2, even
Daniel Cleary: 1-1-2, -2 (4 games)

It is somewhat deceptive to speak in terms of “leading scorers” with respect to the Red Wings. They have 18 players with points in double-digits. But there is one other Red Wing who bears watching. Johan Franzen was 6-2-8, -1, in his eight games against Nashville this year, and he has 15 goals in 16 games since March 1^st. He’s been especially lethal on the power play (14 of his 27 goals), and in a series that might turn on such chances, he could be an important player.

Dominik Hasek has fine numbers in goal in the regular season series: 3-1-0, 2.23, .913, with one shutout. But one wonders a bit concerning his end-of-year performance. True, he is 8-2-0 in his last ten appearances, and he has a 2.30 GAA. However, his save percentage of .897 is not an excitement-inducing number, and in both losses he was pulled – once after giving up four goals on ten shots over 32 minutes, the other after giving up three goals on six shots in eight minutes.

Chris Osgood has numbers that, had he achieved them over 60 games, would be worth of Vezina consideration. In 43 games, he was 27-9-4, 2.09, .914. In this series he was 2-2-0, 2.49, .912.

Nashville, on the other hand, is pretty much playing with house money at this point. Few expected them to be here, testimony to the fine job Barry Trotz did behind the bench (why does he remind us of the preacher at the end of the movie in “Beetlejuice?”).

Nashville is, as one might expect from an eighth-place club, pretty much in the middle third of most statistical categories, but there is an exception. The Predators had the third best penalty killing mark in the league. But even this works against them in this series. They were 21^st in total times shorthanded. Given the Red Wings’ success on the power play in this series (half of their total goals scored), Nashville has to make this a “five guys” series…they have to keep five skaters on the ice as much as possible to have any chance of winning.

Looking at their leading scorers, here is how they fared in this series:

J-P Dumont: 2-5-7, +1
Jason Arnott: 1-5-6, +5
Alexander Radulov: 4-3-7, -7
Martin Erat: 4-4-8, +4
David Legwand: 0-2-2, +3 (4 games)

These are pretty good numbers, but what is noteworthy here is the appearance of so many “plus” numbers (Radulov being the exception). Compare that with the “minuses” among Detroit’s leading scorers. If the Predators can keep this a five-on-five matchup, they can compete.

Regardless, the Predators’ defense will be tested. And that means Dan Ellis – an unlikely candidate to be manning the Predators’ playoff net – will be the man in the spotlight. The rookie has never appeared in an NHL playoff game, and he has to make his debut against one of the flagship franchises in the league playing at the top of its game. But it’s not as if Ellis has been a stiff against the Red Wings this year, either. 1-1-1, 1.75, .950 are pretty good numbers on which to build a reservoir of confidence. In a lot of ways, Ellis is emblematic of this team and their season, as David Climer’s article in this morning’s Nashville Tennessean shows.

Why Detroit will win…

The Red Wings are a top-three team in most statistical categories; they are, of course, the President’s Cup winner for this season as top point getter. They enter the playoffs on a 7-1-1 tear. They have two capable goaltenders, and that sort of depth and balance extends to the rest of their roster. They are – on paper – the dominant team of this tournament.

Why Nashville will win…

They don’t play the games on paper. Nashville is not likely to be intimidated by the Red Wings. It seemed no one in the Central was (Detroit had a comparatively pedestrian 17-12-3 record against their division counterparts – the third best record in the Central). Nashville is precisely the kind of team that can give the Red Wings fits – a lunch-pail, grind-it-out sort of team that just keeps plugging away. They might not win, but they are going to make things very difficult for the Red Wings.

Detroit in six.

Throw records out the window...well, some of them

We're down to the cream of the crop. Well, the top 53.3 percent of the league, anyway. And as we head into the second season, one of the operative phrases is, "you can throw the regular season records out the window," the idea being that everyone is now 0-0.

Well, before we discard the regular season in its entirely, let's think upon something put together by The Falconer, who undertakes a rather comprehensive look at contenders versus pretenders. It might be a surprise to some to discover best team in the East in this analysis when it comes to winning percentage against playoff teams.

Hint...it's not Montreal, and it's not Pittsburgh.

As The Falconer put it, "What does the data tell us? Don't underestimate Washington."

Your First Round Prognostos...Devils vs. Rangers

And the last of the “other” Eastern series …

New Jersey Devils (4) vs. New York Rangers (5)

Season series:

Oct. 25: at Rangers 2, Devils 0
Nov. 3: at Rangers 2, Devils 1 (SO)
Nov. 14: Rangers 4 at Devils 2
Dec. 9: at Rangers 1, Devils 0 (OT)
Feb. 1: Rangers 3 at Devils 1
Mar. 19: Rangers 2 at Devils 1 (SO)
Mar. 27: at Rangers 3, Devils 2
Apr. 6: at Devils 3, Rangers 2 (SO)

If one watched the Devils this year, one might get the impression of a tired, boring team running on fumes. The thing is, they won 46 games. However, only one of those wins came against the Rangers. If you look at this series, you’d have to like the Devils’ chances to go to the Stanley Cup finals…if they win this series. They are 1-4-3 against the Rangers, 38-22-4 against the rest of the East.

But there is that pesky record against the Rangers. The Rangers do not play the Devils’ style, but they do match them for results on the defensive side of the ledger. The Rangers and Devils ranked 4^th and 5^th, respectively, in goals allowed per game this year. Neither club will make anyone forget the 1985 Edmonton Oilers, but the Rangers overcame an absolutely abysmal start, offensively (26 goals scored in their first 15 games – and that includes scoring five on opening night – and shutout three times in their first eight games of the season), to climb – if that is the right word – to 25^th in per-game scoring. That would be two spots above New Jersey. We think it safe to say that the opinions of the families of the players – and Larry Brooks – notwithstanding, this will be looked upon as the most boring series of the opening round.

The Rangers dominated the numbers, as their record would suggest:

Goals for/against: 17/9 (that’s right…nine goals in eight games)
Power play goals for/against: 6/1
Even-strength goals for/against: 11/8
Power play: 6/30 (20.0%)
Penalty killing: 26/27 (96.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 4-0-1
Record, 3+ goal games: none

Looking at the Rangers top scorers, and their success against the Devils:

Jaromir Jagr: 2-1-3, even
Scott Gomez: 1-6-7, even
Chris Drury: 4-4-8, +5
Brendan Shanahan: 2-2-4, +1
Martin Straka: 0-1-1, -1 (five games)

But if there is a “secret weapon” for the Rangers, it’s Nigel Dawes. He has four of his 14 goals on the season against the Devils in seven games. And he’s been quite the sharpshooter…those four goals came on a total of 12 shots (33.3%).

In goal, Henrik Lundqvist has certainly risen to the occasion against his Devil counterpart, Martin Brodeur. He has all eight decisions (7-0-1) with a 1.09 GAA and .956 save percentage to go along with it. He doesn’t have better numbers against any other team he’s played at least two games against this year.

On the other side, the Devils are an offense-starved club, which makes the job of Brodeur that much more difficult. As for the Devils’ leading scorers this year, their record against the Rangers is, as one would expect of a team that scored nine goals in eight games, rather grim:

Zach Parise: 2-1-3, -1
Patrik Elias: 1-0-1, even
Brian Gionta: 0-1-1, -1
John Madden: 1-0-1, -2
Jamie Langenbrunner: 2-1-3, even
Dainius Zubrus: 1-2-3, -1

That’s seven of the nine goals…so forget the idea of a secret weapon based on this. As we noted, it makes Brodeur’s job that much harder. You look at a guy who has a 1.96 GAA and .922 save percentage in eight games, and you’d scratch your head as to why he has one win, and that one coming in a shootout. Well, when your teammates get you barely a goal a game, there is no need for any further head-scratching.

Why New York will win…

They have the utmost confidence that they can beat the Devils. They beat them in Manhattan, they beat them in Newark. They beat them in regulation, they beat them in overtime. They beat them here, and there, and everywhere. And it’s not like Jersey is doing it on the offensive end against anyone else. In their last ten games they were 4-5-1 (3-4-0 to teams not named, “Rangers”). They scored a total of 15 goals in their last ten games and were held to two or fewer nine times.

Why New Jersey will win…

Martin Brodeur…

Rangers in five.

Your First Round Prognostos...Penguins vs. Senators

Next up in our tour of the other playoff series…

Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (7)

Season series:

Nov. 22: Penguins 6 at Senators 5 (SO)
Dec. 13: Senators 4 at Penguins 1
Feb. 23: Senators 4 at Penguins 3 (OT)
Mar. 1: at Senators 5, Penguins 4

Even though the Senators won the season series and bring more playoff experience to this series, there is something more than ominous about this matchup. It has the whiff of change about it. Pittsburgh has the motivation of having lost in the opening round to Ottawa last year, and they are – let’s face it – an extraordinarily talented team that is as healthy as it has been in months, with Marc-Andre Fleury and Sidney Crosby appearing to be recovered from their respective ankle injuries (or at least as much as they will be for this season).

Pittsburgh lost the battle of numbers to the Senators this season every bit as much as they lost the win-loss contest:

Goals for/against: 13/18
Power play goals for/against: 3/6
Even-strength goals for/against: 10/11
Power play: 3/22 (13.6%)
Penalty killing: 7/13 (53.9%)
Record, one-goal games: 1-1-1
Record, 3+ goal games: 0-1

And, the big guns upon which the Penguins will rely haven’t had any particular success against this team…

Evgeni Malkin: 2-3-5, even
Sidney Crosby: 0-1-1, even (two games)
Marian Hossa: 0-3-3, -3 (all with Atlanta)
Sergei Gonchar: 1-2-3, -1

If there is someone to watch, though, it might be Ryan Malone, who is 4-2-6, even, in his four games worth of work against Ottawa this year.

The great unknown here is goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury had a 40-win season last year and this year finished with a sparkling 10-2-1, 1.53, .950 record after returning from an ankle injury. Despite the remarkable run Ty Conklin had when Fleury went down, Fleury is the unquestioned number one goalie. But the playoffs have been another matter for Fleury in his young career. Since turning pro, he is 3-10, 3.78, .869 in his AHL and NHL playoff career and has not won a playoff series. Which Fleury shows up will be as important a factor as any in determining how far the Penguins will go this year.

What might make things a bit easier for Fleury, and for the Penguins in general, is that the Senators come into this series wounded in important areas. Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher are out with head and knee injuries, respectively. They are being described as out for “weeks,” which might mean “months” if the Senators can’t find a way to discover production from elsewhere in their lineup. Alfredsson was 3-5-8, -1 in four games against the Penguins this year. As far as the remaining leaders on this team are concerned, there is some substantial production against the Penguins this year…

Jason Spezza: 4-4-8, +4
Dany Heatley: 6-0-6, +5
Cory Stillman: 1-3-4, -1 (incl. games w/Carolina)
Antoine Vermette: 1-2-3, even
Wade Reddan: 0-5-5, +3

As if the injury situation isn’t enough for the Senators, there is the goaltending situation. Martin Gerber has taken over the number one job, and one would have to think he’ll get the call to start the series. However, despite his 2-0-1 record against the Penguins this year, his 3.25, .877 numbers don’t inspire the greatest confidence. Ray Emery, who appears to have played himself out of Ottawa, if the Senators can find a taker in the off-season for the two remaining years on his contract, has played in one game since late-February. He has a 1-0-0 record against the Penguins this year (2.77, .914), and he was the goalie of record in all five games of a 4-1 Senators series victory over the Penguins in the opening round last year.

Why Pittsburgh will win…

With all due respect to Montreal, Pittsburgh probably had the best overall season in the East this year. To finish second in the conference having lost their top center (and defending Hart Trophy winner) and top goalie for a large portion of the season is quite a feat. They enter the playoffs as the favorite of many to reach the conference final, if not the Stanley Cup final. They come into the playoffs comparatively healthy and playing well (11-4-1 in their last 15 games). They are catching a team with their best player on the bench with an injury. Even if both teams were completely healthy, Pittsburgh has more fire power (whatever the league goals/game rankings say) and a much better defense.

Why Ottawa will win…

Fleury has to demonstrate that what success he’s had so far doesn’t restrict him to being a regular season wonder who folds up in the playoffs. Until he has that playoff success, there will be doubts about his big game ability. Ottawa also has deeper playoff experience as one of last year’s Cup finalists; the fact that they are injured is a cause for concern, not panic. Their play is likely to reflect that.

There is perhaps no series among the eight in the first round where who wins Game One is more important. If Pittsburgh wins, especially if they hold Ottawa to a low goal total, it will add confidence to the talent they already bring to this matchup. On the other hand, if Ottawa wins, especially if Fleury has a difficult game, then perhaps the seeds of doubt will be planted in the heads of the younger team.

Pittsburgh in five.

Your First Round Prognostos...Canadiens vs. Bruins

Before we get hip-deep in Caps-Flyers stuff this week, what about the other series? Well, your Uncle Peerless has the low-down. Let’s start with the Canadiens and Bruins…

Montreal Canadiens (1) vs. Boston Bruins (8)

Season series:

Oct. 22: at Canadiens 6, Bruins 1
Nov. 8: Canadiens 2 at Bruins 1
Nov. 17: at Canadiens 7, Bruins 4
Dec. 6: Canadiens 4 at Bruins 2
Jan. 10: Canadiens 5 at Bruins 2
Jan. 22: at Canadiens 8, Bruins 2
Mar. 20: Canadiens 4 at Bruins 2
Mar. 22: at Canadiens 3, Bruins 2 (SO)

This is the most storied rivalry among those in the first round. Memories of Orr, Robinson, Esposito, Lafleur, Dryden, Cheevers...this is old school. But Montreal swept the season series, 8-0, and is on an 11-0 streak against the Bruins dating back to last season. That’s called, “having a team’s number.” And there really isn’t a secret about how Montreal has done it – defense and special teams. Boston has scored more than three goals once in this series since December 23, 2006, and the Canadiens' special teams have been utterly dominating. The Montreal record this year against Boston attests to that:

Goals for/against: 38/16
Power play goals for/against: 10/3
Even-strength goals for/against: 27/13
Power play: 10/34 (29.4%)
Penalty killing: 28/31 (90.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 2-0-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 4-0

And it is not as if the domination was a product of former Canadien Cristobal Huet in goal. Carey Price is 5-0-0 against Boston this year, 2.17, .927.

Among the skaters, some guys got all fat and happy playing against the Bruins:

Alex Kovelev: 7-4-11, +9
Tomas Plekanec: 3-7-10, +8
Mark Streit: 0-11-11, +8
Andrei Kostitsyn: 5-6-11, +8

Boston has to get more production from its top guys, who haven’t had much success against the Canadiens this year. For example, their top five season scorers:

Marc Savard: 1-8-9, -1
Marco Sturm: 3-0-3, even
Zdeno Chara: 1-3-4, -6
Chuck Kobasew: 0-2-2, -7
Phil Kessel: 1-3-4, -11

On top of this, Kobasew is out with a fractured tibia, and Savard has been on the shelf with a back injury. Which means, much of the load is going to fall to Tim Thomas in goal. What Thomas has done against Montreal is quite different than what he’s done against the rest of the league…

Record: 0-4-1 vs. Montreal/28-19-5 vs. everyone else
GAA: 4.21/2.24
SV: .877/.927

Why Montreal will win…

Montreal finished the year strong – 14-4-1 since losing consecutive games on February 21-23. Their top scorers have had a lot of success against the Bruins, and Carey Price appears to have achieved a comfort level as the number one goalie and in his season against the Bruins. Meanwhile, they will be taking on a team that is, for a playoff team, limping (in more ways than one) into the playoffs. Don’t let that 13-6-7 Bruin record over the last 26 games fool you. In addition to the seven overtime losses (four by way of Bettman’s Gimmick), three wins came via the gimmick. We’re done with that nonsense for the year.

Why Boston will win…

Uh, they won’t.

Montreal in four.

The Meaning of "Red"

According to the site, “Pigments Through the Ages,” the color red is stoked with meaning. As we contemplate the next phase of the “red out,” it might be useful to ponder…

“The color red is the color of fire and blood. Hebrew words for blood and red have the same origin: "dm" means red and "dom" means blood. Blood and fire have both positive and negative connotations. Bloodshed, aggression, war and hate on one side and love, warmth and compassion on the other side. Ancient Greeks associated the bright, luminous red with the male principle…”

For our purposes, the positive and negative connotations have usefulness. Aggression and conflict, directed against a foe…love and compassion, the sort that binds a team with a common goal together.

“Protective powers of the color red against evil influence were common belief. Objects, animals and trees were covered in red paint, warriors painted their axes and spear-catapults red to endow the weapons with magic powers. Some of the Australian aborigines abide by this custom up to the present times. Neolithic hunters and germanic warriors used to paint their weapons and even themselves in blood of slain animals. Roman gladiators drank blood of their dying adversaries to take over their strength. In other cultures, the newly born were bathed in blood of particularly strong and good looking animals. Red painted amulettes or red gems, such as ruby or garnet, were used as charms against the "evil eye". Wearing a red ruby was supposed to bring about invincibility.”

Protection against evil influence…assimilation of an enemy’s strength…invincibility. Useful attributes in the task that is unfolding.

“Salvation from Evil is the subject of an ancient Egyptian charm: ‘Oh, Isis, deliver me from the hands of all bad, evil, red things!’”

Fans of the Flyers might consider all things “Capitals” to be evil…and one hopes that they cry, “deliver us from the hands of all bad, evil, red things!” as the Capitals wreak havoc on their Flyers.

“Good and bad qualities are combined in Phoenix, the firebird. In Egypt, China and Central America it was associated with cleansing and revival. In China its name was the ‘Vermilion Bird’ or the ‘Substance of Fire’ and promised luck and longevity.”

Cleansing, revival, luck, and longevity. We have seen the first three of these as the Caps live to fight another day. Now, let us hope for longevity…say, to mid-June or so.

“Mere perception of red color enhances the human metabolism by 13.4 %…On the other side aggression and violence can be triggered of by red color.”

Energy is at a premium in the playoff season unfolding, as is the need to increase one’s level of aggression and, dare we say it, “violence” to be visited upon an opponent.

So wear red…celebrate aggression and conflict, love and compassion. Besides, what is “orange,” but a “warm red, intensified by a suitable yellow.”

Flyers…suitably yellow.

Of course.

No surprises here...

Although the Caps and the Flyers have not met in a playoff series since 1989, in one respect there are likely to be few, if any, surprises.

Bruce Boudreau and John Stevens coached against one another over a six-year span in the AHL, covering the 2000-2001 through 2005-2006 seasons. Stevens spent the entire time behind the bench of the Philadelphia Phantoms, while Boudreau coached the Lowell Lock Monsters (one season), Manchester Monarchs (four seasons), and the Hershey Bears (one season). Here is the tale of the tape of their coincidental tenures...

How's this for a "first time since..."

According to the Elias Sports Bureau...

Washington is the second team in NHL history to finish a season in first place in its division immediately after three (or more) consecutive last-place finishes: the Hamilton Tigers finished in last place in a four-team NHL each season from 1920-21 through 1923-24, then finished in first place in 1924-25 in a six-team NHL.

Capitals versus Flyers

It's Philly in the first round. And, for those of you wondering about the history of these teams in the playoffs, these teams have met only three times in the playoffs in the past, the Caps holding a two-to-one edge in series, and haven't met since 1989:

1989: Patrick Division Semifinal

Philadelphia 4 - Washington 2

Game 1: Capitals 3 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Franceschetti
Winning Goalie: Peeters
Losing Goalie: Hextall

Game 2: Flyers 3 - Capitals 2 (box score)

GWG: Propp
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 3: Capitals 4 - Flyers 3 (OT) (box score)

GWG: Miller
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 4: Flyers 5 - Capitals 2 (box score)

GWG: Murphy
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 5: Flyers 8 - Capitals 5 (box score)

GWG: Eklund
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 6: Flyers 4 - Capitals 3 (box score)

GWG: Tocchet
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

*****

1988: Patrick Division Semifinal

Washington 4 - Philadelphia 3

Game 1: Flyers 4 - Capitals 2 (box score)

GWG: Poulin
Winning Goalie: Hextall
Losing Goalie: Peeters

Game 2: Capitals 5 - Flyers 4 (box score)

GWG: Miller
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 3: Flyers 4 - Capitals 3 (box score)

GWG: Samuelsson
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 4: Flyers 5 - Capitals 4 (OT) (box score)

GWG: Craven
Winning goalie: Hextall
Losing goalie: Peeters

Game 5: Capitals 5 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Hatcher
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 6: Capitals 7 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Gustafsson
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

Game 7: Capitals 5 - Flyers 4 (OT) (box score)

GWG: Hunter
Winning goalie: Peeters
Losing goalie: Hextall

*****

1984: Patrick Division Semifinal

Capitals 3 - Flyers 0

Game 1: Capitals 4 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Duchesne
Winning Goalie: Riggin
Losing Goalie: Froese

Game 2: Capitals 6 - Flyers 2 (box score)

GWG: Laughlin
Winning goalie: Jensen
Losing goalie: Froese

Game 3: Capitals 5 - Flyers 1 (box score)

GWG: Laughlin
Winning goalie: Jensen
Losing goalie: Froese

Thanks...

Fans cheer for the players. That’s sports.

But thanks are in order to guys who don’t wear jerseys (ok, one who does – occasionally) for this wild ride.

First, thanks to Bruce Boudreau. The guy oozes hockey through his fashion-challenged attire. His old school, “have fun but don’t screw around” tough-love style with the boys, his press-press-and-then-press-some-more approach to the game, his quirky regular guy commentary – often delivered with a twinkle in his eye – was just the thing this group of kids needed at the helm. We didn’t know, when he was named, that he was the best choice to take over for Glen Hanlon (although we thought he’d long deserved a chance behind an NHL bench). We’ve never been so happy to be so utterly wrong.

And while we’re at it, thanks to Glen Hanlon. This year, he was not the best fit for this group at this stage of their development, perhaps. But for the first two years coming out of the lockout, his steady, unflappable style was the right note to sound for a group just getting its feet wet in the NHL.

Thanks to George McPhee, who – in retrospect – won the trading deadline. Kids, this isn’t even close. It is not unreasonable to say that absent the acquisition of Sergei Fedorov, Cristobal Huet, and Matt Cooke, we’re looking forward to the draft this morning, even with the herculean efforts of Boudreau and the boys skating under him. Did Fedorov light up the score sheet? Nope. But he brings so much more than numbers at this point in his career. Alexander Semin seemed to skate in awe of Fedorov in the early games when they were paired, but one can see an improvement in Semin in the weeks since Fedorov was brought in. And it isn’t just Fedorov mentoring the Russians – Ovechkin and Semin. He has the pedigree of a hall of fame-in-waiting career and Stanley Cups (plural) to make sure that when he speaks…well, you listen.

Huet has been nothing short of amazing. His style is not the frantic, happy feet, acrobatic style some goalies have. Watching him is like watching Perlman on the violin. He is equal parts artist and technician. There is so little wasted movement, so little urgency. Wherever he needs to be to make the save, to steer the rebound, to move the puck…he is there. He won’t make SportsCenter with the save of the night. He also hasn’t given up more than three goals in a game (and has given up that many only three times) on his way to an 11-2-0 record in Washington.

Cooke has been every bit the pesky (ok, non-Caps fans, you can say “chippy”), high-energy cruise missle he was advertised as being. Matt Pettinger could not break out of his inexplicable season-long funk, and Cooke coming in as a replacement has been an injection of rocket fuel.

McPhee also had the patience early on to keep Tomas Flesichmann around (by signing him to a contract during camp) and to resist moving Brooks Laich (whose performance made Pettinger expendable). He also had the long-range view in mind in bringing Boudreau into the fold as head-coach in Hershey. We said at the start of the season that this was a “no excuses” season. And we had our eyes focused on McPhee when we said it. Thanks for shoving those two words back in our mouth, George.

And thanks to the guy in the owner’s box wearing the Capitals red last night. Ted Leonsis is one shrewd business man – heaven knows one doesn’t get to his station in life without being one. But as much as that, he expressed an immovable and irrepressible optimism in this team as far back as last summer. He did what he does very well – accentuate the positive and take the long view. He let the hockey people do their jobs, but he was there upon the re-signing of Alex Ovechkin, which acted as a force multiplier to the Capitals’ resurgence…more fans, more wins, more goals, more excitement, and as of this morning…more games to play. Ted is, in many respects, the face of this franchise. His visibility and accessibility – unique among owners in professional sports – puts him in the position of having to take a lot of heat for the performance of his team (on and off the ice), some of which we supplied from time to time. But in the end, Ted can celebrate a division championship team (with more, we hope, to come this season). Given the circumstances and the path the club took to get there, we daresay it might be the most gratifying moment in his tenure. He deserves a big helping of thanks this morning.

Thanks, Bruce…thanks, Glen…thanks, George…thanks, Ted. And thanks to the entire Capitals organization. It only gets better from here.

Uh-huh...uh-huh...

You wanna debate that Hart thing, now??

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

A PLAYOFF-CLINCHING night: Caps 3 - Panthers 1

Southeast Division Champion

Looks good, doesn’t it?

With a 3-1 decision last night over a game Florida Panther squad, the Caps made their 136-day climb from the low-point of their season complete. The win gave the Caps the division championship and eliminated the Carolina Hurricanes. The Caps now await the results of this afternoon’s action to determine their opponent. It will be either Ottawa or Philadelphia.

Who cares?...They’re in!

It was a perfect storm of events that started the evening – Fan Appreciation Night, Alex Ovechkin Bobblehead Night, and the final, playoff-determining game of the season. It made for a larger-than normal crowd for pre-game warm-up, something we suspect the players noticed when coming out for the pre-game skate.

It was a roller coaster of emotion...and noise. The two games earlier this week were mere prelude to the jet-engine roar of the crowd when the Caps took the ice to start the game. Four years of pent-up frustration and disappointment were unleashed.

The Caps started – perhaps understandably – looking as if they were a bit nervous. Cristobal Huet, who has been a vacuum cleaner of technical skill when it comes to avoiding rebounds, was giving up an uncomfortable number of them in the first period, but the Panthers could not convert. One of the biggest problems the Caps had early in the year – an inability to sweep out the trash – did just that when a puck fluttered out of Huet’s reach.

Hoping for a fast start, the Caps were largely held in check by Florida early, and when they weren’t, the impregnable Craig Anderson (he of the 6-0-0, 1.23, .967 record in his last six appearances) was there to keep the Panther net clean. Then, the bad ice in the right wing corner appeared to come to the Caps’ rescue just past the seven-minute mark. Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich applied a persistent two-man forecheck, and Fleischmann liberated the puck from a Panther along the boards. Laich picked it up and chipped it right back to Fleischmann, who then turned, took a step toward the Panther goal, snapped a wrister, and…whiffed in the mush down in the corner. But the puck lay open for Fleischmann to recover. He walked in, pulled Anderson down to the ice, then stepped around him to flick the puck into the vacant cage to give the Caps the lead.

The Caps might have added to that lead, but Anderson denied Brooks Laich from in close off a nice feed from Alex Ovechkin, and then Ovechkin rang the pipe minutes later.

Then, the roars turned into the muffled rumble of concern almost seven minutes into the second period as the Panthers, on a power play, scored on a chip shot from Kamil Kreps at the goal line near the post to goalie Cristobal Huet’s right. The puck somehow snuck behind Huet hugging the post and inside the far pipe, where it barely crossed the line before coming back out, where play continued. At the next stoppage, the play was reviewed and the goal – correctly – awarded.

Eight minutes later, Mike Green sent the puck ahead to Alexander Semin near the red line in front of the Caps’ penalty box. Semin, with his back to the Panther end, snapped a cross-ice backhand pass to Sergei Fedorov streaking up ice. Fedorov took the puck in stride. With Magnus Johansson desperately trying to close the gap, Fedorov skated in on Anderson and launched a slap shot that beat Anderson over his blocker to give the Caps the lead. It is worth noting that Fedorov started the play by working the puck off of Josef Stumpel’s stick at the Capitals’ blue line and over to Mike Green. He then circled back around the weak side of the play as Green was hooking up with Semin. By the time Florida – specifically Johansson – found him, it was too late.

Early in the third, with Karlis Skrastins off on a hooking penalty for Florida, Fedorov found Nicklas Backstrom in the right wing corner to Anderson’s left. Backstrom, who had the look of a guy at a free-skate passing to his buddy, threaded the puck through three Panthers to Semin just inside the top of the right wing circle. Semin, who had no Panthers around him, loaded the chamber and paused on a slap shot, then fired it over Anderson’s glove and off the pipe to give the Caps insurance.

After that, the Caps played an intelligent “make them skate 200 feet” strategy, making sure that if they didn’t have a clear path into the Panther zone, they got the puck in deep where Florida – who, remember, played the night before – would have to lug it back out. The Panthers couldn’t cope with their own weary legs, the Caps’ forecheck, and the heroics of Huet when they could get the puck into the Caps’ zone, and all that was left was the celebrating at the final horn.

It came at a price, though. Jeff Schultz left the game in the first period with only 6:30 in ice time with an as yet undisclosed injury. He was on the bench in street clothes for the “shirts off our backs” giveaway, but from our perch, looking at the screen as he was removing his jersey, he looked to be in some discomfort.

Looking at the numbers, Semin was all over the scoresheet (no, please tell me I didn’t just type that). Eight shots, which was his high for the year, a goal, a doozy of an assist, three takeaways, and curiously not credited with a hit, even though he was launching his body all over the place.

Fedorov had a goal and an assist as well, and he chipped in a couple of takeaways and was even in 20 draws.

Matt Cooke did a lot of things that didn’t show up on the scoresheet, most notably dogging the Panthers all over the ice, especially on the forecheck. All-in-all, it was a big night for the second line. And that was important on a night when Ovechkin was, comparatively speaking, held more or less in check.

With Schultz out, someone had to pick up the spare minutes, and that fell largely to Tom Poti (27:05, only the second time since January he’s logged more than 26 minutes) and John Erskine (18:00, the most ice time he’s received since getting a lot of clean-up duty in the 10-2 win over Boston on March 3^rd).

Steve Eminger had ten minutes of solid hockey with two blocked shots and an “even” rating. That’s seven straight games, dating back to early February (owing to his infrequent appearances), that he’s been even or better. In only four of his last 17 games this year was he on the minus side of the ledger. One of the underappreciated things that happened at the trading deadline is that Eminger was not moved. Although his future here is uncertain, he’s certainly stepped up to do a hard job well – come in after lengthy layoffs and keep the opponent off the scoreboard.

Boyd “Rocky Raccoon” Gordon (who still looks as if someone took a metal pipe to his face) did everything but score…two hits, three takeaways, two blocked shots, and he won 12 of 20 draws.

Give the Panthers credit. They did not merely show up to be a bit player in the Capitals’ starring night. They competed from the drop of the puck. Jay Bouwmeester, who did have a difficult start to the night in taking two first period penalties, had an otherwise solid game overall with an assist, four shots, two hits, and four blocked shots. And it is a pleasure to watch him skate.

Craig Anderson didn’t give any indication that his recent run of superb play was a fluke. The Caps could have put this game away early, but Anderson made several top-notch saves in the first period on his way to a 16 saves-on-17 shots effort to keep things close.

In the end it was a case of the Caps not necessarily being at their sharpest, but playing the sort of game one should play against an opponent in the second half of a back-to-back on the road. Keep pressing until you find a crack, and then exploit it. The last two goals – the Fedorov drive and the Semin slap shot – were scored with Panthers unable to get back into the play. On defense, the insistent forecheck established early paid dividends late as the Panthers looked sluggish trying to lug the puck 200 feet with a two-goal deficit to make up.

On our way into the arena, we saw a young man who had an interesting take on dressing in red. It looked as if he was wearing a crimson graduation gown. If it was, it was prescient. This was the Caps’ graduation to the big time. No longer a doormat, not even a “work in progress” awaiting that day when they could dream of 16 more wins. They are there.

The rebuild is complete.