The First Ten -- The Players

We’ve looked at the team, but what about the pieces – the individuals so far this season? Start with the young guns – Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green (click on the image for a larger version)…


As a group, these guys are the anti-Goldilocks. They haven’t performed as a group up to the way they finished the season last year, but they’re further along as a group than they were to start the 2007-2008 season. That should not be interpreted (to carry along the Goldilocks analogy) as being “just right.” This result shouldn’t be unexpected, given that the Caps are neither quite as badly off as in the first ten games last year, nor are they as well off as the blazing finish last year. But, this is the group upon whom the fortunes of the Caps rest (at least among those who don’t strap on leg pads). It really needs to get better.

What is perhaps odd about this group is that they have precisely the same number of combined power play goals, assists, and points as what they finished with over the last ten games of last year. As a group they have the same number of game winning goals. It is at even strength where they have been less effective, with three fewer goals, three fewer assists, and down 10 on the combined plus/minus.

That the group is as close as they are to where they finished the season last year is, of course, a product of the play of Alexander Semin. Up three goals, seven assists, ten points, and up nine in plus/minus, Semin has carried the Caps on the offensive side of the ledger in the early going. Conversely, Alex Ovechkin has gotten off to a slow start, which has been chronicled in enough places. The odd element here is the performance of Nicklas Backstrom, whose performance thus far suffers perhaps more than the others in terms of the burden of expectations. Backstrom finished with a rush last year, but looking at his start this year, it looks a lot like his start last year. The silver lining there is that this might be less the beginning of a sophomore slump than it is just a slow start.

Then there are the “new guys.” As a group, that includes Michael Nylander, Chris Clark, and Sergei Fedorov, who are either coming back from missing large chunks of last year (Nylander, Clark) or are here for the start of the year (Fedorov).


The stats look better so far in comparison to the last ten games of last year, but when two guys didn’t play a game in that stretch, you’d better have that result. Getting 16 points from Nylander and Fedorov is about as good as one might expect from a guy coming off a major injury and another who is in the tail end of his career. The problem here is the early performance of Clark. We can’t know if there are lingering effects from the groin injury that limited Clark to 18 games last year, and Clark’s being a top scorer is not critical to the success of this team. But so far, one point (and that coming almost a month ago, in the third game of the season) is something that has to improve.

We might also take a look at what we’ll refer to as the “next tier” guys – players who don’t often show up in bright lights on the score sheet, but who did make contributions last year and would be expected to make important contributions this year…


This is another group that sits squarely between the highs of the last ten games last year and the lows of last year’s first ten games. The disappointment here is the play of Viktor Kozlov, who despite getting top line responsibility and minutes, has only three points in six games and is a minus-1. Kozlov has battled a knee injury, missing four games out of the first ten, and in that there is one of those silver linings. Pro-rated over ten games, his early performance doesn’t look much different than his first ten games last year. Now, you could argue, “that was under Glen Hanlon,” and you might have a point (you could make that argument for any of the “first ten” game numbers we’re using as comparisons). But, in 2006-2007 he was 2-3-5, even, through ten games…in 2005-2006 he was 2-3-5, +1, through ten games. See a pattern?

Then there are the “crash and bangers.” What one might be looking for here is not scoring, but energy and keeping other teams off the board...


In that respect, this bunch is struggling. Even though they, as a group, are scoring more than either the first ten or the last ten games of last year (Steckel missing all of the last ten regular season games last year with a finger injury), all are on the minus side of the ledger so far this year. One of the things to watch doesn’t appear in that graphic above. David Steckel and Boyd Gordon were among the league leaders in faceoffs last year, finishing seventh and ninth, respectively last year. They are down a bit so far in the first ten games this year – Steckel from 56.3 percent to 54.8 percent and Gordon from 55.8 percent to 54.8 percent – but Steckel has been very effective of late (six of his last seven games over 50 percent), as has Gordon (four straight over 50 percent). Possessing the puck requires having the puck – it helps to start plays in that position.

Looking at the defense, one number screams off the page. See if you can find it…


This group (not including, of course, Tyler Sloan) finished the year with a plus-25 in the last ten games. None of the top four – Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Tom Poti, or Shaone Morrisonn – were worse than plus-5. This group is a combined minus-1 through the first ten games so far, and as a group, the defense has struggled. Now, is that a chicken and the egg problem (goaltending being the egg to the defense’s chicken)? Hard to say. But it would be hard to make an argument that the defense has played well in any case. The silver lining is in looking at how the group improved from the first ten (under presumably a more defense-oriented coach in Glen Hanlon) to the last ten games. This bunch certainly has it in them to play well. They just haven’t so far. And perhaps even more than getting Alex Ovechkin up to the productive pace to which we are accustomed, getting these guys playing well will be the big factor in getting the Caps off and running toward a playoff spot as the season wears on.

If you look at the goaltenders, it isn’t hard to see what the problem is…


They’re not stopping enough pucks (-smack-…duh!). Despite the fact that the Caps have allowed the seventh fewest shots per game in the league, they are 24th in goals allowed per game. A lot of that is poor defense, generally, but the goaltender is the last line of that defense. Jose Theodore ranks 35th in save percentage in the league (.877). If that number doesn’t improve significantly, it’s hard to see how this team makes the playoffs. One simply can’t count on the Caps scoring four goals a game on a nightly basis. Why?...well, the leading goals per game average has decreased in every year since the lockout. Ottawa led the league at 3.80 goals/game in 2005-2006, Buffalo led with 3.63 a game in 2006-2007, and Ottawa led last year at 3.15 goals/game.

Here is one last point. Much is made about a team having to play 60 minutes of hockey to be successful. The Caps are getting more like 54…three 18 minute periods. They have surrendered eight goals in the first or last minute of a period this year. With more discipline, their goals allowed per game might be reduced from 3.30 a game (24th) to 2.50 a game (10th). The good news is that is a problem that is not one of lack of talent, but of lack of discipline. It is a problem that a capable coaching staff can correct, and if they do, the Caps chances will suddenly look much better.

Rodney Dangersemin?

So, we were checking out NHL.com to read about Alexander Semin being named first star in the league for October, expecting to read about how he finished the month among the league leaders in most offensive categories. We clicked on the link on the NHL.com home page and were taken to this story...

What does a guy have to do to get a little respect?

Well, congratulations Alexander, it was an honor richly deserved.

The First Ten -- The Team

Ten games are in the books, and it’s as good a time as any to take a look at where the Caps stand.

First, let’s keep in mind that the object of the exercise is to win the Stanley Cup, not show well or merely make the playoffs. So, in keeping with this theme of “tens,” how did the last ten winners do in their first ten games?

No Stanley Cup winner in the last ten years has won fewer than six games, but perhaps more tellingly, they don’t lose. Only one team lost as many as three games in regulation time in their first ten games. The Caps, at 5-4-1 through their first ten games, have a lot of work – not to mention recent history to overcome – to realize their goal.

But looking at the Caps in comparison with themselves, the picture somewhat more mixed. Again, in keeping with the notion of looking at ten-game segments, we looked at the first ten games played to date in comparison with two other sets of ten – the last ten they played (corresponding to the last ten games of last year) and the same “first ten” segment from a year ago.

It’s tempting to say that the first ten games this year look like the first ten games last year, but that comparison does not bear up under scrutiny. This year’s club is clearly better offensively (or at least permits a fuller expression of the offensive talent available). In fact, the Caps’ performance over the first ten games on offense (32 goals) looks a lot like how they closed the season last year (31 goals). The difference between this club and the one that finished last year is on defense. The Caps have allowed 33 goals (excluding Gimmicks) so far. Compare that to the 19 they allowed over the last ten games last year, and you can understand why it is that people say, “defense wins championships.”

What is perhaps striking about this club versus the one that closed the season last year is in how similar they look in many respects. That’s to be expected, given the continuity of the Boudreau system. If you look at goals for, shots, shots allowed, power plays (opportunities and goals), the clubs are very similar in results.

Perhaps the most important difference to recognize between this club and the one that finished last year is on special teams. You’ll note that on the power play, there isn’t a lot of difference, either in the number of opportunities (50 in the first ten this year, 49 in the last ten last year) or success (eight goals versus seven). The difference is on the penalty kill. The Caps were not then, and are not now, an especially talented penalty killing club. The percentages (80.0 percent this year, 79.5 percent in the last ten last year) bear this out. The difference is in opportunities. Last year, the Caps were on the short end of the manpower situation only 39 times in the last ten games. So far this year, that number is 60, which looks uncomfortably like the number through the first ten games last year (52), and it’s killing them.

There is also the matter of getting a lead. In the last ten games last year, the Caps led first in seven of them. They won them all. This year, they have led first in four games and split them (2-2-1). They’ve been less effective getting a lead and capitalizing a lead. In fact, this year’s early performance looks – again, uncomfortably – like last year’s early performance (3-2-0 when leading first). It’s also worth noting that the Caps got a lead in seven of those ten games to close last year. So far this year – five times, same as last year. One would rather not have that comparison.

The Caps aren’t a carbon copy of last year’s “first ten games” team, especially in style. But they are a little too close to that club in appearance as far as results go, especially in the performance of special teams and an inability to get up on teams and close them out. The early record of 5-4-1 suggests that their chances of winning a Cup this year (given the early performance of recent Cup winners) are dim. But virtually the same team last year closed the year on a 9-1-0 run, scoring more than a goal a game more than their opponents in the process. The Caps are capable of dominating play. What appears to be the case so far is that the very things that could undermine their play – a lack of hard work in their own end, a tendency toward the lazy penalty and the predictable results (given that the Caps haven’t been that effective a penalty killing squad) – are what is doing them in at this early juncture.

Not a smile in the bunch

We thought we'd mosey on over to practice this morning to see how the morning after a poor effort would be rewarded. It went pretty much as we thought it might...skate, skate, and skate some more. There was a minimum of "down time" to lean in and see what Coach Boudreau had for the next drill. There were a lot of whistles (to start guys on the next round of drills) and a lot of barking (from the coach).

There weren't any smiles, and from where we were, it didn't even seem as if there was much talking among the players. It was just a case of hold your nose, and open wide, 'cuz here comes your medicine.

Now THIS is a draft history...from Hell

We usually bring up Larry Brooks in the context of, "he said what?!" But for those of you Caps fans who sit up late at night sticking pins in little George McPhee and Ross Mahoney dolls, read our pal Lar's tiptoe through the Ranger wreckage of drafts over the last dozen years...

What a roster of first-rounders it is:

1996: Jeff Brown
1997: Stefan Cherneski
1998: Manny Malhotra
1999: Pavel Brendl, Jamie Lundmark
2000: no pick
2001: Dan Blackburn
2002: no pick
2003: Hugh Jessiman
2004: Al Montoya, Lauri Korpikoski
2005: Marc Staal
2006: Bobby Sanguinetti
2007: Alexei Cherepanov
2008: Michael Del Zotto

...yeesh.

Don't look now, but...

Washington: 5-4-1 (11 points)
Tampa Bay: 4-3-3 (11 points)

Mike Smith: 3-2-2, 2.07, .941
Olaf Kolzig: 1-1-1, 2.67, .925

But hey, it's still early...

...right?

A NO-point night: Sabres 5 - Caps 0

It was a team effort.

On a night when Brent Johnson was the most effective Cap, that’s about the best you can say about a 5-0 loss to the Buffalo Sabres in which the Caps were never competitive…at all…ever…in 60 minutes of, well, play (I guess).

Johnson was the one on the end of the bench in the baseball cap.

You’d like to think that this loss was just a stinker, but you know, this is getting to be a concern. That’s 13 goals allowed in the last three games and the fourth time in ten games this year that the Caps have allowed five or more goals. This is not, by any measure you’d care to use, as much as a competent defensive team. They’re bad, and there isn’t any way to sugar coat that. From the goaltender out, they are a poor defensive team. Tonight was no exeception…

Twice, the Sabres scored in the last minute of regulation. In 30 periods of regulation play so far this season, the Caps have surrendered a goal in the first or last minute of eight of them. That’s eight goals of the 33 that the Caps have surrendered. It’s happened five times in nine periods in the last three games. That’s just a lack of attention. Keep that up, and there won’t be any “rocking the red” in April.

Of course, giving up goals in the last minute of play has its complement – Thomas Vanek (did the Caps not cover this guy in the pre-game meetings?) scored on the first shot of the game.

Only two skaters – John Erskine and David Steckel – stayed out of the minus column. Even Shaone Morrisonn (who left with an injury after only 6:03 of playing time) managed to finish with a -1.

The Caps just yielded too much of the ice to the Sabres. The five goals were scored from a combined total of 61 feet. That wasn’t as much a case of a lack of physicality in close as it was just not covering or keeping up with guys.

Here is another indicator of that…the Caps had only seven blocked shots. No one was close enough to a Sabre to get in the way; there were just too many rushes and open looks.

Of the 29 shots the Caps took, 16 of them were from above the circles. Any wonder why Ryan Miller pitched a shutout?

The Caps are 0-3-1 in games in which they score fewer than four goals. That’s an indicator that goalies aren’t stealing any games. Of course, the only way a goalie steals a game when his team doesn’t score is in a Gimmick. But if the Caps have to score four to win on a nightly basis…well, like we said, there won’t be any “rocking the red” in April.

We’re convinced…Nicklas Backstrom has an injury. That has to be it.

Did Viktor Kozlov dress tonight?

Oh, let’s just say it…the top line was awful tonight. No points, four shots (three by Backstrom), -3. If Ovechkin is that important, he shouldn’t win a Hart, he should get a Nobel Prize for Hockey.

It’s the fourth time in ten games that the Caps have had to kill off at least seven shorthanded situations (the number tonight was eight). That’s just too much time expending a lot of energy and getting out of the substitution rhythm.

Here’s an example of balance. The teams were relatively even in shots (Washington led, 29-27), but while the Caps had a total of 11 skaters taking shots, the Sabres had nine with multiple shots, none with more than four. Buffalo played its game, the Caps did not.

There were 56 faceoffs in the game. Derek Roy took 25 of them for the Sabres (he won 13, the only Sabre to win a majority of his draws). That just strikes us as an odd result.

And here is your bedtime stat…since the lockout, of the 24 teams making the playoffs out of the Eastern Conference only five have won fewer than 20 road games. Only one – the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2005-2006 – finished the season with a below-.500 road record. The Caps are 2-4-0 away from Verizon Center.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, November 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are live here at Peerless Central with the last prognostication you’ll ever need on tonight’s tilt between the Capitals and the Buffalo Sabres at Home of the Sabres Bitching Center Arena. To look at some Buffalo sites, you’d think the Sabres were the bottom feeders of the NHL…

“Pominville, Roy off to Slow Starts”

-- Buffalo News (online) headline

“Ruff Barks after team plays without bite.”

-- Another Buffalo News (online) headline

“Ruff Shakes Things Up in Depth Chart”

-- Sabres.com

“It seems like when we get home we try to make that extra play, try to make it a little too cute and it ends up costing us.”

-- Jason Pominville, in Sabres Notebook (Sabres.com)

"[The Lightning] won more battles. That’s all it comes down to. They won more battles and I’m not going to make any excuses. They were the better team, they won the battles they skated better and they were a lot better with the puck and that showed. They made a lot better plays."

-- Lindy Ruff, after a loss to the Lightning Thursday night

“Music to my ears…”

Well, if it isn’t Cheerless…hey cousin, I haven’t seen you since…

“Yeah, since you had us do those infernal previews. Where’s that beer you promised?

Uh, it’s in the mail. What are you doing here?

“You know me…’Cheerless’ an ‘ all that. Well, what more cheerless place is there than Buffalo?”

What do you mean, cuz?

“I was reading that Buffalo.com site?...and whaddya think they’re talking about on their ‘Let’s Talk’ column?...

”Take a deep breath, or time to panic? Everything seemed so nice a few weeks ago. As recently as Oct. 23, the Buffalo Bills were 5-1 and memories of the Arizona massacre were already dim thanks to a nice performance against the stumbling San Diego Chargers, and the Sabres were 6-0-1 after a miraculous win in Minnesota. Since that fateful Thursday, however, our hometown teams have combined for zero wins and 4 losses - including embarrassing missteps to the Miami Dolphins and Ottawa Senators, two of local sports fans' most hated rivals.”

“Makes me look like Polly Sunshine, don’t it?”

I see your point…but let’s focus, shall we, on the Sabres, who did start 6-0-1, but who are 0-2-1 in their three games to close out the month of October. Overall, where to the contestants rank?...




First, we put those hits up there as an indicator that this isn’t likely to be a rock ‘em-sock ‘em sort of game. There is likely to be an up and down aspect to it that could be of advantage to the Caps, since their shot differential (5.4 shots-per-game to the good) is much greater than is Buffalo’s (-0.3 shots-per-game). Add that to the disparity in faceoffs won, and you would think one thing to look for is how well the Caps can tilt the rink toward Ryan Miller and the Sabres’ defense.

Apart from that, there is the matter of whose will can be imposed on the other. The Caps would like to make this a 5-on-5 game. Their goals for/goals against ratio at five-on-five is markedly better than is Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Buffalo clearly has the better special teams play, both when having a man advantage and when down a man.

The battle of wills also extends to who scores first. If the Sabres do, they usually win. If the Caps allow that first goal, they usually…win. The thing is, though, there is perhaps no more reliable indicator of which team will win an NHL game than looking at who scores first. 27 teams have a winning percentage of .500 or better when getting the first goal. Washington, it is worth noting, is one of the three teams not in that group.

Individually, a discussion of the Sabres might start with Thomas Vanek. The $50 million man (over seven years, as the Sabres matched an offer tendered by Edmonton last year) had something of a slump last year in the first year of his big contract. He dropped off by seven goals, 13 assists, and 20 points in finishing 36-28-64. The biggest drop of all was in his plus-minus number. After leading the league in that figure with a +47 in 2006-2007, he dropped off to a -5 last year that had him ahead of only Dmitri Kalinin and Maxim Afinogenov on his own team. It suggested that perhaps he was less his own talent and perhaps more of who he was surrounded by in 2006-2007 (Daniel Briere and Chris Drury having left Buffalo last year in free agency).

Well, Vanek has come back with a vengeance. He leads the Sabres in goals (1st in the NHL), points (T-10th in the NHL), power play goals (T-4th), and shorthanded goals (T-1st). He has not been extraordinarily successful (3-5-8, +6 in 12 career games) against the Caps. He was held without a point in three games against Washington last year…but he was 2-3-5 in four games in 2006-2007.

On the other side is Derek Roy. Perhaps no other player emerged from under the shadow of the departed Briere and Drury for the Sabres last year than did Roy. He improved his scoring from 21-42-63 in 2006-2007 to a 32-49-81 mark last year, getting an additional 2:31 of ice time a night. This year, Roy is leading all Sabre forwards in ice time per game (2:32 more than last year and more than five minutes more than two seasons ago), but he’s struggled. His 1-4-5 is good for only seventh in scoring on the team; his only goal an overtime game winner against Minnesota.

At the other end of the ice, the Sabres are characterized by a balanced, mobile blue line. There is no real big hitter there, no top scorer, and none of the group emerges when there is a discussion of best-in-the-NHL candidates. But Jaroslav Spacek, Teppo Numminen, Tony Lydman, and Henrik Tallinder are all solid two way players. To that group was added Craig Rivet, presumably as a defensive anchor. However, Rivet had arthroscopic knee surgery recently and is out for this one.

The other addition is intriguing. Andrej Sekera, who played in 37 games as a rookie with the Sabres last year, leads the Sabres in ice time this year. The trouble, perhaps, for the Sabres, is that in doing so, he’s been a minus player in six of his ten games and five of his last six. Not to say he’s the cause of such a result, but he’s been in the vicinity. One would think that if Rivet was in the lineup, Sekera would not be getting that amount of work (averaging almost 27 minutes a game since Rivet went out).

The last line of defense for the Sabres is goalie Ryan Miller. Miller is staking an early claim to be considered among the league’s top goalies. He is fourth in the league in goals against (2.07), tied for sixth in save percentage (.928), and brings a record of 5-1-1 into this game. He did, however, lay an egg in allowing five goals on the first 30 shots he faced in a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday. His numbers against Washington are not as bright – 2.75 GAA and .900 save percentage, but he does have a 7-2-0 record in ten career appearances against Washington.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Maxim Afinogenov

The 29-year old forward has yet to score a goal this year (0-7-7). One might think this a slump, but his goal scoring dropped off from 23 (in 56 games) in 2006-2007 to ten (in 56 games) last year. He has one goal in his last 25 regular season games (1-12-13, -9). But, he is 8-10-18, +1 in 27 career games against the Caps. Which Afinogenov shows up tonight will likely be an important factor in whether the Sabres can break their losing streak.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Laich is likely to open on the left side of the top line, replacing Alex Ovechkin. Although Laich has only a single goal in his last seven games, his importance here might not be in scoring as much as it will be doing the dirty work to get the puck to Nicklas Backstrom and Viktor Kozlov. If he can pick up the garbage in front, all the better. Given that Buffalo doesn’t, as a rule, have an especially physical defense, he might get opportunities in that area.

The Caps haven’t yet righted the ship after losing the first two games of the western road swing – their two wins have been shaky, to say the least. But they’ve found a way to scratch out extra points in both in extra time. That seems to be the formula for the moment, and in a hostile place that has been unkind to them lately (the Caps are 3-7 over the last five seasons in Buffalo), they’ll have to have their sandpaper out to scrape one out.

Caps 3 – Sabres 2

The Story of Bruce

John Walton has the information on Bruce Boudreau's autobiography, coming out in October 2009.

The Sloan Era

Tarik El-Bashir reports in Capitals Insider that Tyler Sloan has been returned to the Hershey Bears. Sloan -- heretofore a player who logged AHL time with Syracuse and Manitoba, as well as Hershey in the AHL -- had a nice little run here. It argues for him being on a short list of potential emergency call-ups this season. In his four games...

Record: 2-2-0
Scoring: 1-0-1

Average ice time: 10:38

Plus/minus: even

Shooting percentage: 50% (1-for-2)

Hits: 6 (good for 11th on the team...not bad for a guy who's played fewer than half the games)

Slobberknocker hits: 1 (Daymond...Daymond...uh, Daymond?)

Horror Show at the Confluence

"Saw V"...a Disney film

"A Nightmare on Elm Street?"...a Spielberg feel good movie

"The Texas Chainsaw Massacre?"...pfft...a Cartoon Network feature

"Psycho?"... a story of family love


Now this is a horror show...

...if you're a Penguin fan.


mwah-hahahahahahaha...

It's a movie waiting to happen

Last night, the last thing we did before retiring was to read with interest an article dated this morning in the Washington Post by Tarik El-Bashir on George McPhee, educator, and wondered...


Raiders of the Lost Cup?

Washington McPhee and the Center on Fun Street?

Washington McPhee and the Stanley Cup Crusade?

Washington McPhee and the Kingdom of Lord Stanley's Chalice?

"V-I-C-T-O-R-Y... the search for victory. Not truth. If it's truth you're interested in, Doctor Tyree's Philosophy class is right down the hall. So forget any ideas you've got about fancy parties, exotic travel, and taking over the sports world. We do not get features on SportsCenter and "$" never, ever, marks the bottom line."


We really need to lay off the anchovy and pineapple pizza before bed...

Wisdom

I saw this at one of my favorite sites today...

...and thought to myself (at least with respect to your favorite prognosticator), "and never used so many words to say it."

Just keep telling yourself...

...it's for a good cause, it's for a good cause...

The warmup jerseys were part of a promotion at the Hershey Bears' "Pink at the Rink" night last Sunday, at which jerseys were auctioned, with proceeds going to the American Cancer Society.

They actually look sort of cool.

Thanks to The Red Skate for pointing us to Derek Meluzio's blog, "Stack the Pads," which had links to these fine pictures, among others.

Sometimes the Bear gets you...

...and sometimes the Bulldog gets the Bear.

It was a case of 1-2-3, as in, one goal in the first, two in the second, and three in the third as the Hamilton Bulldogs treated the Bears like Pooh in a 6-0 win last night.

The Bulldogs had a pair of shorthanded goals and a power play marker to add to the three even strength goals they had.

One might not have seen this one coming, as the Bulldogs were 0-2-1 in their previous three games going into last night's contest. But it was one of those nights, apparently, when whatever could go wrong, did, for the visitors.

Sami Lepisto seemed to have an especially difficult evening. Going into the game with a league-leading +10, he was a -4 on the night. His turnover led to the Bulldog's shortie, and he was on the ice for the three even-up goals. But he certainly wasn't alone. That oh-for-seven power play stands out, too.

But even with this stinker, consider...

- The Bears still have four of the top ten in the AHL in plus-minus (ten players are tied for ninth)

- They still have five players in the top ten in goals (although there is a real train wreck of players tied for ninth at five goals)

- They have three in the top ten in assists (again, a large group tied at ninth)

- They have two of the top-ten rookie scorers

- They still have those 44 goals scored, while no other AHL team has yet cracked the 30-goal mark

- They are still on a pace for 391 goals, which would be 91 more than last year's league leader (Chicago: 300)

- They're still on a pace for 124 points (the franchise record is 114 set two years ago; the league record is 124, set by Binghamton in 1992-1993)

Perhaps it was a serving of humble pie or a bad night in what has been, and what still looks like it could be, an otherwise remarkable season up in Hershey.

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Predators 3 (OT/SO)

It’s still two points…it’s still two points.

Hey, if the Caps win 45 more games as ugly as that, color The Peerless pink with glee. For those of you who didn’t suffer through the Eukanuba Dog Show on Versus – oh, excuse me, the Flyers 7-0 win over Atlanta – the Caps sleep-walked their way through the last 45 minutes of regulation and overtime, ultimately relying on a couple of backhand scores in the Gimmick round of the competition to beat the Nashville Predators, 4-3.

One might be tempted to say that the Caps did everything they could to give the game away, but the verb “to give” is a verb of action, and there was precious little action on the part of the Caps in those last 45 minutes of actual hockey-like skating. It was more like, “Hey, you want it? Fine…let us know when to lock up.” And even with all of that, the Predators couldn’t snatch victory from the jaws of…the napping.

The best that can be said of this is that it is a win, and with it the Caps have gotten to ten points (actually 11 with the win) faster – in their ninth game – than any season since 1997-1998 (when they did it in six games and went to the Stanley Cup final). Other stuff…

There are times, watching Alexander Semin, when one might think, “if he had a bow, instead of a stick, he’d be Rostropovich on the cello.” His pass to David Steckel, springing the latter for a shorthanded breakaway goal, after peeling back and around to restart the play was a sight to behold. Then there was his own goal, catching Preds goalie Dan Ellis going the wrong way and lifting the puck (it actually looked like something of a mishit) over Ellis’ glove. Finally, there was his nice-as-you-please backhand in the shootout that looked like one of those “why can’t everyone do this” kind of score.

Just an observation, but watching Boyd Gordon skate is a little bit like watching Walter Brennan in The Real McCoys. He gets there, but he has an odd way of looking about it.

The Caps skated real purdy in the first period, and for all their synchronized skating got absolutely squadoosh. The scored on an ugly goal from in front and a breakaway that looked like it leaked off of Steckel’s stick and caught Ellis thinking it would be a crisper shot.

How many times on the Caps’ five power plays did anyone plant their caboose in Ellis’ face? For that matter, how many times did anyone bother to stand to the side and wave their stick? If the answer was “none,” it would not surprise me. Except for when Semin scored eight seconds into the last Capitals man advantage, the power play looked like an advertisement for Totes (that’s an umbrella thing).

Mike Green had an interesting night…four shots, four giveaways, four takeaways, four blocked shots. But here might be the most interesting number on his line. He was on the ice for 7:03 of the total 7:53 of Caps power play time.

When you lead in shots 23-6, then give up a goal to tie the game 2-2, you usually come out on the losing end of the final score. Give credit to the Caps for not letting the night slip entirely away.

If defensive defensemen can be in slumps, it seems Shaone Morrisonn is in one. The interference penalty he took late in the third didn’t look like a smart play. The puck was headed elsewhere, and he didn’t disengage from the other player.

Nicklas Backstrom looks like he is this close to getting a four assist night. This was the rare night this year where he looked as if he was doing a better job of getting the puck to people where they could do something with it.

The Caps got Michael Nylander in part for his ability in the Gimmick. One could see why tonight. His backhand was pretty, too.

The Caps outshot Nashville 19-4 in the first period. OK, so why didn’t it look as if Dan Ellis was making many tough saves?

Jason Arnott got two of the flukier goals of his career – the first when the puck bounced all the way across the crease past three player and right onto his stick for an uncontested backhand, and another when the puck snuck through a clot of and Arnott redirectred it off the post and past goalie Jose Theodore.

The Caps split 64 draws with Nashville, but won 11 of 18 in the defensive zone.

The crowd was announced as 17,011. Hallowe’en must have started early with all the folks dressed as purple seats.

It was a curious kind of game in that the whole arena seemed to lack intensity. Perhaps it was a case of no Ovechkin, no Horn Guy (at least I did not hear him), and no Voice (at least I didn’t hear him). Even the mites-on-ice feature at the first intermission seemed to fail in exciting the crowd.

For all the whining of yours truly, though, the Caps are now atop the Southeast Conference, and they have not lost a game in regulation at home (3-0-1). Alexander Semin stands alone at the top of the scoring rankings, and he is tied for the league lead in goals. It’s worth noting that Semin has eight goals in his first nine games this season. That’s something Alex Ovechkin has not accomplished in any of his four seasons (he’s had six three times).

Hey, in the end, it’s two points. This isn’t the Beauty Contest Series of college football, where you get style points for whoopin’ your opponents. Two points ugly pays the same as two points pretty. That’s the bottom line.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Predators, October 28th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!


The Capitals are back home tonight after a 1-2-0 road trip to take on the Nashville Predators. It is an opportunity for Caps fans to gaze in wonderment at what might be the most gawd-awful uniform ever foisted upon a team in the National Hockey League (well, since those pajamas the Flyers wore some years back, anyway). Not least bizarre in the scheme is the team logo, some sort of prehistoric creature with some serious overbite issues. The Peerless tracked down the esteemed paleontologist, Dr. Alan Grant, to get his take on just what this odd creature is…

Dr. Grant, welcome…

“This isn’t about some park you want to open, is it?”

No, Dr. Grant…we’re not opening a park. Dr. Grant, we wanted to get your opinion on the creature depicted in the logo of the Nashville Predators hockey team. You’ve seen it, I take it?

“Not much of a hockey fan, myself…I’m usually out in the field digging up bones or trying to escape the odd velociraptor.”

Well, here the logo is some sort of creature that resembles the saber-toothed tiger.

“Ah, well, there is your first mistake. It is a common one. The saber-toothed ‘tiger’ is not a single species at all, but serve to describe a group of species, some of which are related to kangaroos.”

Really?

“Yes, but what most people associate with the ‘saber-toothed tiger’ is a member of the ‘smilodon’ genus.”

You’re pulling my leg…

“Only if it’s in a dig…sorry, that’s a paleontology joke.”

So, is this the basis for the logo of the Predators?

"Well, no…the teeth are much too large in relation to the cranial vault. If I was to hazard a professional opinion, I think that the basis of the logo is Jerry Lewis…probably from the early Nutty Professor period."

Thanks, Doc…As for tonight’s game, the Predators come into it with very middle-of-the-road numbers:

Record: 4-4-0
Goals for/game: 3.50 (T-5)
Goals against/game: 3.88 (28th)
5-on-5: 1.00 (T-13)
Power Play: 17.1 (T-17th)
Penalty Killing: 75.6 (26th)
Win when scoring first: .600 (T-19)
Win when trailing first: .333 (T-16)


This is another of those Western Conference teams that Caps fans don’t get to see much of. The Predators have played in Washington once in the last four seasons, taking away a 5-2 win in December 2005 (it’s so long ago, Ben Clymer had a goal in that one, and the Caps had assists from Andrew Cassels, Jamie Heward, and Brian Sutherby).

This Predator team suffers the low expectations of comparisons with the Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings and this season’s “it” team, the Chicago Blackhawks in their own division. This will be the Predators’ first game against an Eastern Conference opponent this year. In an eerie way, the team that employs former Capitals General Manager David Poile in a similar capacity looks more than a bit like the Capitals teams under Poile.

For instance, the Predators are led in scoring at the moment by a defenseman – Shea Weber (the 1990-1991 Capitals team was led in scoring by defenseman Kevin Hatcher). Weber is part of a solid, if not spectacular blue line (which sounds like the Caps of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s) that includes Ryan Suter, Dan Hamhuis, and Greg DeVries.

This year is very much a return to a defense-centric attack. The blue line has amassed seven goals in the eight games thus far. Weber has three of them, and only Hamhuis and Ville Kostinen among the defensemen have not scored a goal for Nashville. As a group, they have 22 points (the Caps’ blueliners have a total of 16 points).

The Predators – again, like many of those old Caps teams – lack high-end scoring talent, but they do have balance. Three players – Weber, J.P. Dumont, and Jason Arnott – have put up at least a point a game through eight games. Seven others have average at least a point every other game, among those players playing in at least half (four) of the Predators’ games.

What the balance the Predators bring to the game has done is permitted them to get off to fast starts. No team in the league has scored more first period goals than Nashville (11, tied with Chicago and Calgary). That could be critical, given that the Caps have allowed the fourth highest number of first period goals this year (11, tied with Dallas). The other side of that coin is that only seven teams have scored fewer than the seven goals the Predators have in the third period this year.

Nashville also can score in bunches. Twice this season the Predators have scored three goals in less than four minutes, and those six goals were scored by six different players. Five of them were at even strength.

In goal, Dan Ellis has gotten the call in all eight games this year for Nashville, starting in seven of them (he came on in relief of Pekka Rinne after Rinne allowed three goals on eight shots in a 5-3 loss to Columbus). If Ellis is called upon once more, he is 0-1-0, 12.00, .625 in one career appearance against the Caps. He gave up three goals in the opening 14:40, at which point he was pulled in a 4-2 loss to Washington last season.

The Peerless' Players to Ponder

Nashville: Radek Bonk

If there is one Predator who has a history against the Capitals, it’s Bruce Garrioch’s favorite trade rumor on skates, Radek Bonk. In 42 career games against Washington, most of them as a member of the Ottawa Senators, Bonk is 8-15-23, +9, with three power play goals and a game winner. He’s off to something of a slow start with Nashville (1-1-2, -1 in six game) but will be a player to watch.

Washington: Alexander Semin

With the “other” Alex out for this game, Semin now gets a lot of the focus Ovechkin was getting early on. The league’s co-leader in total scoring and third leading goal scorer has one goal in two career games against Nashville – it happened to be the one that touched off the three-goal barrage that ended Dan Ellis’ night early last year.

The Caps have done it this year without Ovechkin being at the top of his game. Now, they have to do it without him in the lineup. Those are different things, owing to the fact that even as he had “only” two goals in eight games, Ovechkin commanded attention. Now, that attention will be lavished on others. This will probably be a tighter game, and if the Caps don’t get caught up in the old “we’re back home, let’s put on a show for the crowd” mentality, they should do just fine.

Caps 3 – Predators 2

B-L-U-E-S...WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

We saw this on Hershey Bears' announcer John Walton's blog, and thought we'd pass along the "local guy makes good" story...

Hockeytics

Sarah Palin drops the puck at two NHL games (disaster ensuing...Flyers stumble out of the gate, Manny Legace stumbles over carpet)...and now, courtesy of the AHL's Lake Erie Monsters...

Frankly, we'll stick with this...

The Viewer's Non-Viewing Guide to Caps Hockey

As you know by now, the Caps will not be on the tee-vee when they return home to play the Nashville Predators on Tuesday. Well, kids, for those of you not in actual attendance at the event, this is an opportunity to play Gramma and Granpa and listen to the game on the ol' ray-dee-oh by tuning in to Steve Kolbe’s call on the 3WT network: 1500 AM, 820 AM and 107.7 FM.

Now kids, the verb, to tune involves some hand-ear coordination, if you are getting into the playing Gramma and Granpa thing and listening to it on the old table top console (or even if you're in your car). There are generally two knobs on a radio (what's a "knob," Uncle Peerless?...Gary Bettman, but that's another story) -- one for volume, which is generally on the left, and one on the right.

If you turn the knob on the right to the left, you go "down the dial." That means you go down the numbers that indicate the "frequency" on which the radio station broadcasts. We won't bore you with the technical details of that. If you turn the knob to the right, you go "up the dial." OK, so...oh, we forgot...we assumed you knew how to turn the radio on. That would be by using the knob on the left, which you have to turn to the right to click "on," then turn further to the right to achieve the desired volume.

OK, back to "tuning." You have to turn the knob to the right until the "dial" -- the big circular thing in the face of the radio -- indicates you are at "1500" or "820" (we're leaving the FM number out of this, since Gramma and Granpa didn't listen to that new fangled "FM" in their day).

At this point, you should be hearing the dulcet tones of Steve Kolbe "calling" the game -- that's a radio term for "announcing." And, in order to help you visualize the game Mr. Kolbe is calling, we provide you with these images you may use as mental depictions of what is happening on the ice...

Alex Ovechkin rushing down the left side into the Predator zone...







A faceless Predator (no, really...look for yourself) about to feel the wrath of Matt Bradley





Captain Chris Clark taking the ice on Nicklas Backstrom's right wing










Predator goalie Dan Ellis leaving the short side open for an Ovechkin drive





Brent Johnson coming up large in goal

John Erskine blocking a shot








See? Not having TV won't be so bad. With a radio, a little imagination, and copious amounts of adult beverages (root beer for you folks under 21), you can make this an experience you'll tell your own grandchildren about.

No hockey today...

The first time the NHL has been dark for a non-all star break or holiday date since November 21, 2001.

A TWO-point night: Caps 6 - Stars 5 (OT)

It’s still two points...it’s still two points…it’s still two points.

It might not have been an aesthetic masterpiece, but tonight’s 6-5 overtime win by the Caps over the Dallas Stars is still two points, and it salvages a three game road trip for the Capitals.

The operative word in this game was: “deep”…

...as in, the defenses of both teams were beyond awful deep in their own zones. Let’s start with Washington. Here is all you have to know about how bad the Capitals were deep in their own end. Sean Avery scored a goal on a long rebound off the right pad of Jose Theodore – that one’s on the goalie. But the last four Dallas goals were scored from a total of 48 feet…an average of 12 feet apiece. That’s pretty much four point-blank goals. If anything, Theodore kept the Caps in it, as the Stars might have rung up double digits with the chances they had.

At the other end, Marty Turco was an adventure all to himself. He was more of a beer-league goalie early – giving up four goals on 19 shots through two periods – but turned into the missing Flying Wallenda late, personally stuffing Tomas Fleischmann and Alexander Semin twice apiece when the pair has almost open nets at which to shoot. Strangely, if not for some timely play from the goaltenders, this might have been an 11-10 game, instead of a 6-5 game. The respective defenses were that bad.

But enough of that…next April, if…when the Caps are getting ready for the playoffs, this will be just another game in October. Meanwhile, there were milestones tonight:

- Tyler Sloan netted his first NHL goal when he converted a rebound at the doorstep to Turco’s left.

- Sergei Fedorov passed Alexander Mogilny as the top-goal scoring Russian in the NHL with his first of two goals tonight.

- Sean Avery scored his first goal as a Star.

- Marty Turco sustained his first career loss to Washington.

Some other things that stand out…

- Another indicator of how bad these defenses were…Dallas blocked only 15 of 55 Washington attempts, Washington blocked only 10 of 55 Dallas attempts. In today’s NHL, that seems mighty low. Only one player on the ice had more than three – Philippe Boucher, and one would not say he had a very good game.

- So there was Krys Barch, doing his best Matt Bradley imitation, trying to move up in weight class to take on Donald Brashear on the faceoff following a Dallas goal. Like Bradley against Pittsburgh’s Paul Bissonnette in a recent game, Barch got his beak cut and ended up on the wrong side of the pile down on the ice.

- 35-12. No, that wasn’t the score of the Weber State – Montana State game a couple of weeks ago (ok, it was), it was the hit totals. No, Washington did not have the 35. Only three Stars were not credited with a hit. Meanwhile, three Capitals’ defenseman failed to register a single hit (Morrisonn, Schultz, Sloan). The other three – Erskine, Green, and Jurcina -- had a total of four…the same number Joel Lundqvist had in barely nine minutes of playing time.

- Nicklas Backstrom showed some more signs of life tonight. He has an assists, attempted five shots, had a couple of takeaways, and tied for the team lead in hits (ok, the team lead was “two”).

- It’s worth noting that this six-goal outburst came on a night when the top three lines of opening night were re-united: Ovechkin/Backstrom/Kozlov (0-2-2, even), Semin/Fedorov/Laich (3-3-6, -1), Fleischmann/Nylander/Clark (2-2-4, +3).

- Here’s an odd one…Mike Ribiero and Brenden Morrow were on the ice for the last four goals scored in this game – two by Dallas and two by Washington, including the overtime winner. Loui Eriksson might have made it if team skated five a side in overtime. He wasn’t on the ice for Alexander Semin’s game-winner.

- The more we see this Ovechkin on the penalty kill thing, the more we don’t like it. It might have been a “high-risk, high-reward” kind of idea, but it looks more and more like “high-risk, low-reward.” But we’re wondering…if Ovechkin got 2:46 of penalty killing time tonight (third among forwards), and Chris Clark got none, is there a problem with Clark (total of 11 minutes and change)?

- Fabian Brunstromm got a power play goal…and he was on the ice for two Caps goals. He’s been on the minus side in five of his last six games (-2 tonight).

- Tomas Fleischmann is looking like a real live NHLer more and more these days. As Craig Laughlin put it tonight, he had lightning in his stick. If not for Turco’s acrobatics, he could have had four, perhaps five goals.

- Boyd Gordon won 13 of 17 draws, but in the ends, he was eight of ten in the defensive end and won both offensive zone draws. In fact, the Caps won 15 of 22 draws in the defensive end – no Cap had a losing record in their end.

- This was the third time in four games that the Caps have coughed up a second intermission lead. And, they had trouble finishing off periods, giving up a man-down goal with ten seconds left in the first and another (Turco having been pulled for the extra skater) with 57 seconds left in the third.

- Marty Turco stands a 41st in the NHL in save percentage (.842) out of 42 ranked goaltenders. Maybe he was distracted by his alma mater losing their fourth home football game of the year this afternoon, the first time in 40 years that’s happened to the Michigan Wolverines.

- Don’t worry, Jose Theodore and Brent Johnson are on the “second page” of the rankings, too (31st and 34th, respectively). It’s actually a fairly esteemed group on that second page…Miikka Kiprusoff, Evgeni Nabokov, Rick DiPietro, and Martin Biron are back there, too.

This was a 140-foot game…for the defense, as they played (for lack of a better term) between the face-off dots. Both offenses managed to get the puck deep often and made the best of their chances. The Caps played well enough to win, perhaps, against Phoenix, and didn’t. They certainly played badly enough – on defense – to lose this game, and didn’t. Getting three of six points on this road trip would have been satisfying, even if it didn’t throw fans into a delirium. Getting none would have been a disaster. Getting two? Let’s just say, “ok, that’s over,” and pick things up against Nashville on Tuesday.

Because, it’s still two points.

photos: AP

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Stars, October 25th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

One more game on this horse shi… uh, horse show road trip. The Caps visit Dallas this evening, and when they do, your favorite prognosticator will be laying off the anchovy and pineapple pizza. It has a strange effect on his last night’s sleep...




“Ovi-Wan Kenobi. Ovi-Wan…now that’s a name I’ve not heard in a long time. A long time.

“I think my uncle knows him. He said he was washed up.”

“Oh, he’s not washed up…not yet.”

“You know him?”

“But of course I know him. He’s me. I haven’t gone by the name of ‘Ovi-Wan’ since…last season.”

…

"Ovi-Wan Kenobi, a year ago you served our team in the Stretch Run Wars. Now we beg you to help us tonight in our struggle against the Death Stars. I regret that I am unable to present our request to you in person, but my car’s in the shop and I'm afraid my mission to bring you to the Stanley Cup playoffs could fail. I have placed information vital to the survival of our playoff hopes into the memory systems of this CCM Vector stick. This is our most desperate hour.

Help us, Ovi-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope."


Well, perhaps not their only hope, but it couldn’t hurt for Alex Ovi-Wa…Ovechkin to break the five game streak without a goal he brings into tonight’s game against the Dallas Stars. It could be a formidable task. The Stars, though, are having problems of their own, as the numbers suggest:

Record: 3-4-1 (2nd in Pacific/9th in Western Conference)
Goals for/game: 2.88 (16th in NHL)
Goals against/game: 4.00 (29th)
5-on-5: 0.73 (25th)
Power play: 15.8% (20th)
Penalty killing: 76.9% (23rd)

This is not the typical performance of a club that has averaged 105 standings points a year over the last eleven years, and that has had fewer than 100 points in only three of those seasons. The Stars have been consistently poor through games, getting out scored in each of the first (9-7), second (12-9), and third (10-7) periods through eight games this year. In three home games, the Stars have both scored and allowed 14 goals and have both scored and allowed three power play goals. Unlike the Stars we’ve gotten used to, a team that has resembled more the Western Conference version of the New Jersey Devils for their attention to system detail, they’ve been more the let-it-all-hang-out sort of club at home in the early going.

The Stars have found themselves having to climb out of holes a little too often for their liking. They have been scored upon first in six of their eight games, and they have a 1-4-1 record in those games to show for it. They’ve won both games in which they posted the first goal. Coming from behind is always difficult in the NHL, but the Stars have shown almost no ability to recover from a deficit. They are 1-4-1 when trailing after one period, 0-4-0 when trailing after two. Clearly, a good start favors the Capitals, but that’s going to be true on most nights.

One of the disappointments so far at this earl juncture for the Stars might be the performance of Sean Avery. The free-agent pick-up is only 0-2-2, -1 in eight games and leads the team with 31 penalty minutes. He does, however, have four goals in six career games against Washington.

The curiosity for this team is Fabian Brunnstrom. Undrafted by the NHL, he emerged as a potential NHLer as a result of his play in the Swedish Elite League last season (at age 23). Several teams – Detroit, Vancouver, and Toronto among them – were said to be vying for his services, but he signed a two-year entry deal with Dallas. Held out of the first two Stars games this season, he scored a hat trick in his NHL debut (also credited with the game winner) against Nashville, the third player to achieve the feat and the first in 29 years. However, since that start, Brunnstrom is 1-2-3, -5 in five games and skated less than ten minutes in his last outing against the Islanders.

Another early season disappointment of sorts is sophomore defenseman Matt Niskanen. In his rookie year last season, Niskanen was 7-19-26, +22 in 78 games. However, he is 0-1-1 in eight games to date and is a team worst -6.

One of the problems the Stars have had that is reflected in their goals allowed numbers is the absence of three-time Selke Trophy winner Jere Lehtinen. In addition to his defensive skill, Lehtinen has chipped in some offense in his career against the Caps (5-6-11, +8 in 13 career games). He has been ruled out of this game with a groin injury.

This will likely be the first time Krys Barch – a 4th round pick of the Caps in 1998, but for whom he never played a game – will play against Washington. Given that he’s topped the 100 penalty minute total in each of his two seasons with the Stars (doing it in only 26 games in his first season in Dallas), it’s not likely he’s going to be out there to provide a spark on offense.

There is also the old man on this team – Mike Modano. The 38-year old is probably no longer the consistent point-a-game player he was 5-10 years ago, but he always seems to find a way to inflict damage on the Caps. He’s 11-28-39, +15 in 30 career games against Washington, and he found a way to abuse Jamie Heward in other ways a couple of years ago…




The Peerless’ Players to Ponder:

Dallas: Marc Fistric/Nicklas Grossman

With Doug Janik doubtful and Sergei Zubov declared out for this game, this pair of defensemen take on some importance. Fistric is a load, physically, but by the same token might be exploited by the Caps’ speed. Grossman is a youngster (this is his second full season), and might be vulnerable to the skill among the Capitals’ forwards. Whether the Caps can get favorable matchups will be something to watch. If these two struggle, then Marty Turco’s perfect regular season record against the Caps (3-0-0, 1.21, .953) will be in jeopardy.

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

Fedorov has a long and successful history in playing against the Stars, primarily a product of his long tenure in Detroit. He is 33-44-77, +14 in 79 career games against the Stars with seven game winners, 12 power play goals, and five shorthanded goals. It seems likely once more that Fedorov will patrol the blue line, given the Caps’ injury situation, but he would also seem to be a candidate for power play time that will give him an opportunity to renew his acquaintance with the red light behind the Dallas net.

When you’re struggling, it doesn’t all come back at once, in most cases. Hard work here, a fluke there, and you get a toe-hold on turning things around. Dallas doesn’t play “elegant,” and the Caps should be prepared for a more typical tightly-fought, close to the vest Dallas effort. The defense has been there the last few games, with conspicuous errors late doing the Caps in. If they can tighten that up a bit and loosen up the grip on their sticks, they can make the last game of the road trip better than the first two.

Caps 2 – Stars 1

Dr. E diagrams the power play

Zis is the vay it's zooposed to verk, ja?

A NO-point night: Coyotes 2 - Caps 1

Well, the most exciting frustrating team in hockey let a lead get away for the second straight game, dropping a 2-1 decision to the Phoenix Coyotes, and all of a sudden we’re just about back to where we were at this time last year.

Then: 3-4-0
Now: 3-3-1

Then: 14 goals scored/19 goals allowed
Now: 22 goals scored/20 goals allowed (not counting Gimmicks)

Then: 4/35 power play (11.4%)
Now: 6/36 power play (16.7%)

Then: 28/37 penalty killing (75.7%)
Now: 32/41 penalty killing (78.0%)

Then: had a 7-goals against game (7-3 loss at Buffalo)
Now: had a 7-goals against game (7-4 loss at Atlanta)

From last night’s game, the “at leasts”…

At least they scored a power play goal (they had been on a 1-for-22 run – 4.5 percent)

At least Nicklas Backstrom had a point (doubling his season production to date)

At least the Caps had a good night in the circle – 64 percent overall, and every Cap taking a draw won more than he lost

At least Jose Theodore had another solid overall game (1.54 GAA, .945 SV since giving up three early goals to Pittsburgh)

But mistakes and bad habits have crept into the Caps’ game lately. Two defensive breakdowns – one a product of judgment, the other the product of awareness – led to the two Phoenix goals. Tyler Sloan made the wrong choice in trying to clear the puck from the Caps’ zone, putting it on the stick of Olli Jokinen, who found Mikkel Boedker cutting down the middle to beat Theodore. Morrison simply lost track of the only Coyote in the area – Peter Mueller – who converted a feed from Martin Hanzal for the winner.

As for the rest, the Caps started reasonably well, only to see the air leak out of the balloon as the game wore on…13 shots…11 shots…eight shots. Even the penalties – of which all four were of the “obstruction” variety (hooking, holding, interference, tripping) – hinted at the lack of focus. And, it’s not as if the Caps put the same sort of pressure on Mikael Tellqvist that the Coyotes put on Theodore. The shot chart suggests the Caps were bombing away from the outside, while Phoenix was getting more chances “in the paint.

One concern might be that the “young guns” are packing cap pistols on this road trip (no pun intended). Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Mike Green, and Nicklas Backstrom…17 shots, no goals, two assists, -1, last night (25 shots, no goals, three assists, even in the last two games).

The differences between last year and this are that, first, the club doesn’t need to have a change in philosophy to unleash their talent, and second, there isn’t the uncertainty surrounding the question of whether or not they’re good. But no team can just show up and get a win. Like we said, the Caps aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year, and the effort has to match the expectation. The hardest test of the road trip is perhaps to come – Dallas can be a suffocating team. The Caps certainly have the talent and depth to deal with that. But if they visit the Stars and skate a game like this, the question won’t be whether they win, but whether they score.

Unpalatable political pomp

Seems one puck drop wasn't enough. As Greg Wyshynski reports, Sarah Palin, the Republican candidate for vice president, will be in St. Louis on Friday to drop the ceremonial puck as the Blues face off against the Los Angeles Kings.

Swing state (Missouri being one), what she'll wear, the idea of hockey fans being used as props for a political moment. Frankly, it's old. We want to see something new.

What we'd like to see is for Governor Palin to schedule a puck drop event for Sunday, November 2nd, in Peoria, Illinois. Why? When Illinois is solidly in the ranks of her opponent? Well, the AHL's Peoria Rivermen will be hosting the Manitoba Moose. She can drop the puck, smile and wave, then shoot all the moose.

Now that's hockey!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Coyotes, October 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s “hump game” of the three game road trip, as the Capitals visit the Phoenix Coyotes, who seem to be in something of a state of denial with respect to their guests. If one were to go to the Coyotes’ web site this morning, one would find this blurb in their pregame preview…

“In two games against Phoenix, [Alex Ovechkin] has registered two goals and two assists.”

Well, no, not exactly, he’s registered one goal and THE goal.

“You’re not going to post a video of that, are you?”

Well, this is a surprise…Mikael Tellqvist, the Coyotes’ backup goalie…aren’t you starting tonight?

“Uh…yeah.”

You don’t sound especially excited about it.

“Would you? I mean, here’s Ovechkin, in a slump, and he’s coming here, where he had –gulp-- that goal.”

You mean, THE goal, right?

“Look, I know about goals…there was that dipsy-do thing through eight defenders that Rick Nash scored against us..”

You mean, against you…

“Yeah, OK, against me…and there was that falling down backwards on the seat of his pants backhand thing Sidney Crosby scored against us…”

...ahem

“yeah, yeah…against me…

You do know about highlight reel goals, don’t you?

“Nice way to get into your first game of the year, isn’t it?...Donald Brashear will probably to a somersault and head one into the goal tonight…”

Well, one can hope...


Tellqvist catches the Caps coming off their worst offensive production of the season in their 2-1 loss to Calgary on Tuesday. For the record, he will bring a 1-1-0, 3.53, .892 lifetime record against the Caps into tonight’s game.

He and the rest of the Coyotes are coming home after a four game road trip, the last three of which they lost. They also gave up 14 goals in the process…if the Caps are going to spring back on the offensive end of the ledger, this might be the team against which to do it.

Phoenix doesn’t bring a lot to this game (with an exception), based on their five game results:

Record: 2-3-0, 4 points (T-13th in the West)
Goals for: 2.40 (25th in the league)
Goals against: 3.40 (23rd)
5-on-5 ratio: 0.54 (29th)
Power play: 19.0% (12th)
Penalty killing: 85.0% (10th)

As you see, the Coyotes' special teams are not bad, both ranking in the top half of the league in efficiency. Their 5-on-5 results to date, though, are something the Caps should be able to exploit (the Caps are third in the league in 5-on-5 goals ratio).

Phoenix has had problems with bad starts. Their total of three first period goals ranks tied for last in the league. But, they’ve also had something of an odd pattern to their offense. They’ve scored only one goal in each of games 3 and 5. They scored four goals in their second game and three in their fourth. This will be game six on their schedule…the Coyotes and their fans might be forgiven if they can keep the pattern going against a Caps team that has allowed the seventh highest total of goals so far this season.

Individually, things start with an old friend – Olli Jokinen. The former Panther is 14-15-29, -13 in 49 career games against the Caps, and he leads the Coyotes in scoring at the moment (1-5-6, even).

To Jokinen, one must add Shane Doan in the list of players to watch. The Phoenix captain is not a player the Caps see much of, but in 16 career games is 3-6-9, +1, with two game winners to his credit.

The Coyotes have gone young with some promising early results. Two rookies have made a mark thus far – Kyle Turris (picked third overall in the 2007 draft) is 1-3-4 in five games, while Mikkel Boedker (picked eighth overall last June) has a pair of goals in five games. Two other rookies have appeared in all five games – Kevin Porter (no, not the former Bullets basketball player) and Viktor Tikhonov, grandson of the legendary coach of the Soviet Union hockey team. All in all, Phoenix carries 11 players on its roster 23 years of age and younger. It is also a team with size. Only Boedker is shorter than six feet, and 14 skaters tip the scales at over 200 pounds (five over 220).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Phoenix: Daniel Carcillo

Carcillo returns from a two-game suspension, the product of engaging in fisticuffs with Chicago’s Ben Eager – Carcillo was on the players’ bench while Eager was on the ice. Carcillo – the league’s penalty leader by almost 100 minutes last year and a top-ten finisher in fighting majors – might be watched to see if he is on his worst behavior. The Coyotes lost both games in his absence – to Ottawa and Montreal – by a combined score of 10-4. He has never played against Washington.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

This will be Ovechkin’s first visit to Phoenix since scoring “The Goal.” He also comes into this game on a four-game goal scoring drought. Here is your fun Alex stat for today…in each of his first three seasons, he finished his first seven games of the season with four goals. He currently has two…do the math.

The other thing to note about this game is that Jose Theodore has never lost to the Coyotes in regulation time. He is 5-0-3, 2.67, .905 in nine career appearances against Phoenix. Ovechkin getting off the schneid…Theodore continuing his solid recent play…sounds like a plan.

Caps 5 – Coyotes 2

A NO-point night: Flames 2 - Caps 1

It wasn’t the best way to start a road trip, and there are some concerns, but it wasn’t as bad as all that, either. The Calgary Flames finally got their season started with a 2-1 in over the Caps last night that saw a reversal of fortune for the Caps in three respects.

First, there was the come-from behind nature of the win for the Flames (their first over Washington since 1999). Whereas that had been a specialty of the Caps so far this year (the Caps came from at least two goals behind in two of their three wins), the Flames spotted the Caps an early goal by Sergei Fedorov before taking the lead, which brings us to the second item…

The second period. Coming into the game, the Caps had outscored the opposition in the second period, 9-2. However, the Flames turned the tables by outscoring the Caps, 2-0, in the second period last night, then holding on for the win.

The third point is reflected in Calgary’s better effort and result than they had realized in giving up an average of 4.4 goals a game in their first five contests. The Caps aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this year. Last year, Ovechkin was a known, but guys like Alexander Semin and Mike Green were curiosities. No more; Green and Semin (who had 16 points between them in six games) were held off the scoresheet entirely and managed a combined total of only three shots on goal in more than 50 minutes of combined ice time.

There really isn’t a scapegoat in this game (except the Caps' power play, more on that in a bit); it was merely a case of Calgary playing a very good game, and Miikka Kiprusoff finally playing like a guy who has averaged more than 40 wins a year the last three seasons (he was named first star of the night by the NHL).

We are getting to the point, though, where there might be concerns about Nicklas Backstrom. He finished so strong last year (5-14-19, +16 in his last 18 games) that it was reasonable to expect that he’d be a productive player out of the gate in his second season. He hasn’t been. Despite getting more than 19 minutes a night on the top line (he was moved to the second line last night), he has a total of one point (an assist) in six games, and his faceoff percentage (39.7 percent) is better than only six other players having taken at least 50 draws this year. It’s early, but the term that comes to mind is, “sophomore slump.”

One supposes that you could be critical of the goals the Caps allowed. On the first, Jose Theodore didn’t get a handle on the slap shot by Jarome Iginla, but let’s also remember that Iginla is an accomplished goal scorer, and we’ve seen Alex Ovechkin rifle pucks like that through goaltenders often. On the second, the Caps might have backed off a bit too much to allow the Flames to enter the zone with speed and numbers, Matthew Lombardi getting what amounted to a free look and shot at Theodore. All he had to do was pick a side.

But two goals allowed against any team is, on most nights, going to be good enough to get a win, and Theodore played plenty well enough in this one to give the Caps a chance. Kiprusoff was just better.

As for the other skaters, there is another bit of a problem. Two guys that the Caps have depended on to win draws and start the game of puck possession are struggling. David Steckel (one-for-six last night and 42.8 percent so far this year) and Boyd Gordon (four-of-nine last night and 50.0 percent) aren’t putting up the numbers yet that they did last year (56.3 and 55.8 percent, respectively).

Alex Ovechkin got off the schneid, points-wise, but his four games without a goal streak is his longest since last February. Guys don’t use wood sticks any more, for the most part, so the old idea that you can see sawdust dropping from the stick where it’s being held too tight doesn’t apply. We don’t know what the analogous substance might be for composite sticks, but we might be getting an idea watching Ovechkin these days. We have a feeling though, that before this road trip is done, this problem will be in his rear view mirror.

Tyler Sloan almost got a “call-up hat trick” of sorts – a big hit, a fight, and a blocked shot. Trouble was, after the big hit on Daymond Langkow, he was jumped by Rene Bourque, who was sent off for instigating, unsportsmanlike conduct, fighting, and ten-minute misconduct. People who sit that long generally have to buy a ticket for the privilege. Sloan wasn’t penalized.

What followed, though, was the single inexcusable part of the Caps performance. Despite having the rarest of creatures – the possibility of a full nine minute power play – the Caps mustered but three shots, none of which tested Kiprusoff to any large degree. There was the game, right there. With a chance to stand on the Flames’ throat, and after a highlight reel hit to earn that power play at that, the Caps let the Flames up and never really dominated play thereafter. As for that power play, the Caps are now one for their last 21 in power plays (4.8 percent), dating back to the Vancouver game.

This was an opportunity lost by the Caps – the Flames had not played well coming into this game. But perhaps the lesson learned here is that they won’t be going into many buildings this year having the home club giving less than their “A” effort. That should be kept in mind when heading to Phoenix on Thursday.