A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Hurricanes 2

For 57 minutes, you wanted to rush down to the ice and scream at the top of your lungs, “what the $%& are you guys doing out there?” And in three minutes, all was forgiven.

That was the sum of the evening as the Caps came from behind in the dying minutes of the game to wrestle a 3-2 victory from the clutches of the Carolina Hurricanes. It came with a price though, as defenseman Shaone Morrisonn left after one four-second shift in the second period (Carolina scored a goal with Morrisonn on the ice) with a groin injury.

The watch word for tonight was “frustration,” as in the Caps frustrating their fans with a propensity for wanting to make that last beauty of a pass that ended up getting tipped away by a Hurricane stick…or frustration at ringing iron on several occasions (Sergei Fedorov and the game’s ultimate hero – Alexander Semin – finding the pipe)…as in frustration over Alexander Ovechkin suffering his career high eighth consecutive game without a goal...as in the frustration of a power play pulling an oh-fer for the third straight game (0-for-3 tonight and four for their last 39 dating back to October 16th).

But in the end, persistence and perseverance won out. The Caps were the better team all night (with one conspicuous exception, but we’ll get to that). Carolina scored on their first shot and then seemed content to sit on the lead. That’s not generally a recipe for success, but the frustrating play of the Caps seemed destined to allow the Hurricane lead to hold up.

But then Ovechkin found a whole new vein of gold to mine in the absence of his goal scoring. A nifty feed from the side boards to Sergei Fedorov was enough to spring Fedorov in alone on goalie Cam Ward, and he lifted the puck over Ward’s right pad to tie the game. After Carolina regained the lead on a goal from Tuomo Ruutu that Brent Johnson would appear to want back, it was Ovechkin again, leaving the puck for Semin behind the Carolina net and skating out to draw a Hurricane defender with him. Semin walked out in to the space that was vacated and snapped a no-look shot off Ward’s stick on the far side and into the net with only 2:43 left in regulation. Finally, it was Ovechkin barreling down the left side as the clock was winding to zero, forcing defenseman Joe Corvo to mark him. Upon crossing the Carolina blue line, he feinted to the right as if to cut to the middle, and this drew Rod Brind’Amour out of the middle to help on Ovechkin. All that was left was for Ovechkin to lay the puck across to Semin for a clear shot at Ward, which found the back of the net. On the play, Brind’Amour, in trying to get back across appeared to take the blade of Semin’s stick on the follow through in the face, and left a trail of blood as he left the ice while the Caps celebrated the go-ahead goal.

The result made coach Bruce Boudreau look like a genius for uniting the Russians – Ovechkin, Fedorov, and Semin on one line. All three figured in the scoring – Semin with two goals, Fedorov with a goal, and Ovechkin with three assists.

Some other points…

-- It was 57 minutes of sleepwalking followed by three minutes of turbocharged effort. That is not something one wants to depend on.

-- 0:00…that was the shorthanded ice time logged by Alex Ovechkin. OK, so the Hurricanes only had a total of 2:14 on the power play, but is this a sign that the experiment will be pared back?

-- Rod Brind’Amour won 12 of 18 draws. The rest of the Hurricanes won eight of 37. Not good.

-- If there was a momentum changer, it was Milan Jurcina’s hit on Scott Walker two minutes after Carolina scored their second goal. It was the most effective expenditure of energy by any Cap to that point and seemed to stop Carolina in its tracks.

-- About that conspicuous deficiency...We spent some time watching Cam Ward for long stretches, and there was one thing we noticed. Rarely it seemed in the first 57 minutes was there a Cap within ten feet of him. He simply got too much room and too many free looks at shots (even though the shot chart suggests a fair number of shots from between the hash marks in the first period). The Caps have to create more traffic in front. Tellingly, they seemed to do a better job of that late , and it might have contributed to Semin’s game-tying goal. Who was it in front crossing Ward’s line of sight?...Ovechkin.

-- The Hurricanes’ blog on the News and Observer called this game “brutally intense and physical.” Frankly, we didn’t see it, not for a game between two teams that are likely to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast all year. Here is an example…the Caps were credited with 21 hits. Ovechkin and John Erskine had 12 of them, leaving nine for the other sixteen skaters. That doesn’t impress us as either brutal or physical.

-- That’s 15 goals in 20 games against the Hurricanes for Semin, including three game winners. Here is as staggering a stat…he’s done it on 55 shots (27.3 percent shooting percentage).

-- As good as the Fedvechmin line (or perhaps the "Las Vegas Line" -- zip code "89128") was in a lot of situations, that’s how bad the second and third lines were. The Flesichmann-Nylander-Clark line was reunited to start the game and managed two shots total. The Laich-Backstrom-Kozlov line looked like a new line with a lot of errant passes looking as if intended for no one in particular. They did have nine shots, but it seemed (especially in Backstrom’s case, with four shots) a matter of creating things on one’s own.

-- I’d have bet that on a night when John Erskine (three) and Boyd Gordon (three) outshot Alex Ovechkin (two) we’d be calling this a no-point night.

-- At the risk of being a jinx, the Caps are now the last team in the East undefeated in regulation at home (4-0-1).

-- Guess Johnny gets the start on Saturday against the Rangers.

This had all the look of one of those 20 games you’re going to lose in a season, no matter what. That the Caps were able to grab two points without yielding any to Carolina by virtue of an extra-time result is the kind of ending that might not mean a lot now, but could in April. Here’s to toughing one out. Well done, boys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, you can’t say after game 11 that there is a “must win” game in the 12th contest of the season, but there is no time like the present to say, “enough!” about this mediocre start of 5-4-2. And there is no better opponent to shout “enough!” at than the Carolina Hurricanes.

But first, it’s been a while since we dipped into the ol’ mailbag, so let’s take the pulse of Caps Nation.

Dear Peerless,

I didn’t mean it. Honest. It was past my bed time, and that Jaworski dope was going on and on an on with all that football-speak. Caps fans are the greatest. No, really, they are. All 17 of them.

Signed,
Mr. Tony in DC

Dear Mr. Tony

Isn’t it about time you trade in your microfone for a fork at the early bird at Shoney’s? Or maybe take your act to dinner theatre in the Catskills?
*****

Dear Peerless,

How d’ya like me now?

Signed,
Ryan G. in Anaheim

Dear Ryan,

OK, ya got me there.
*****

Dear Peerless,

Hey, wanna buy a goalie mask? Only 10 games of mileage. Give you a great deal on it…please?

Signed,
MB30 in Newark

Dear MB30,

Sorry, I need my elbows to find my way onto the Metro in the morning.
*****

Dear Peerless,

You know?...Maybe that Semin guy isn’t so wrong after all.

Signed,
Six points in three games since Semin’s interview

Dear Six Points,

Maybe we can get Semin to talk about some of his teammates.
*****

As for tonight’s game, the Hurricanes will come into this game with a 7-3-2 record, good for the top spot in the Southeast and the third spot in the Eastern Conference. The rest of the record for the visitors looks like this…

Goals for/game: 3.08 (7th)
Goals against/game: 2.92 (15th)
5-on-5: 1.11 (12th)
Power play: 10/58, 17.2% (17th)
Penalty Killing: 43/54, 79.6% (20th)
Winning % scoring first: 4-2-1, 571 (T-21st)
Winning % trailing first: 3-1-1, 600 (6th)

The odd thing about these numbers is that both teams have a better winning percentage when trailing first than when they score first (Washington: 3-2-1 versus 2-2-1). How they do it is probably due to different factors – Washington’s explosive offense (which hasn’t been especially explosive lately) and Carolina’s veteran mix and their balance.

Speaking of that balance, Carolina has no skater among the top 30 in goals (Eric Staal is tied for 32nd with five) or the top 40 in total scoring (Ray Whitney is tied for 15th with 11 points), yet is still 7th in the league in scoring-per-game.

Statistically, one might look at a so-so defense and special teams in the lower half of the league standings and wonder how the Hurricanes have compiled a 7-3-2 record. But they are one of those teams that do a lot of little, unheralded things well. They are a top-ten team in hits (8th), blocked shots (4th), takeaways (4th), and faceoffs (10th). They also don’t get penalized much (eighth fewest minor penalties taken and fourth fewest penalty minutes per game).

Perhaps typically of this team, they are led in scoring by the underrated and unheralded Ray Whitney. For a guy who gets precious little ink for his efforts, he is plenty effective. Since joining Carolina after the lockout, he’s put up 210 points in 222 games played. Almost half of those points (25-75-100) have been scored on the power play. He is 15-25-40, +4 in 46 career games against Washington.

The Hurricanes are also strong down the middle with Eric Staal and Rod Brind’Amour. Neither, though, has gotten off to a fast start. Staal has nine points in 12 games, but with three multi-point games aside has been rather quiet. He has also been somewhat undisciplined, having amassed an uncharacteristic 16 penalty minutes in his first nine games. He’s managed to stay out of the box, though, over the past three games. Never especially adept in the faceoff circle, he’s winning draws consistent with his career pace (44.5 percent).

Winning draws has never been a problem for Brind’Amour, and he’s among the league leaders again (2nd with 63.2 percent wins). He’s coming off a season in which he lost 70 games to a knee injury. While he has chipped in enough scoring to rank third on the team (4-4-8), one place where the after effects of his injury might be felt is in defense. The two-time Selke winner is a team worst minus-10. Only Atlanta’s Mathieu Schneider has a worse league-wide plus-minus mark (-11).

The defense for the Hurricanes resembles that of Buffalo in that there is no particular standout player among the defensemen. No Norris candidates here. But it is a balanced group, all of whom can chip in on the offensive end (with the exception, perhaps, of Josef Melichar). Niclas Wallin is at the other end of the plus-minus rankings, tied with the Rangers’ Nikolai Zherdev for the top spot in the league (plus-10). What the Hurricanes will have to contend with, though, is injuries on the blue line. Joni Pitkanen, Frantisek Kaberle, and David Tanabe are all on the shelf.

And that’s not all for the injuries. Justin Williams is out for the foreseeable future with an Achilles tendon injury. Matt Cullen is nursing a leg injury and is day-to-day. Brandon Sutter is still feeling the after effects of an ugly hit from Doug Weight that left him with a concussion. He’s listed as day-to-day. That is a lot of talent and experience on the shelf, which leaves things largely in the hands of…

Cam Ward. It’s perhaps a bit of a reach to call Ward an enigma, but it wouldn’t be too far off the mark. Since his Conn Smythe performance in the 2006 Stanley Cup tournament, he has been nothing short of…well, ok. 67-46-11 is a fine won-loss record in the two years after that performance, but that success doesn’t really owe itself to Ward’s performance. A 2.83 goals against average and .901 save percentage reflects his being ranked out of the top 30 in both years in both statisitics.

However, Ward has improved his numbers in the early going this season. With a 4-2-2 record, his 2.58 GAA ranks 11th in the league, and his .922 save percentage is ninth. What’s more, Ward has had more than his share of success at the expense of the Caps, carrying a 10-4-1, 2.56, .918 record against Washington into this game.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Sergei Samsonov

Samsonov went the first ten games of the year without a point, but he does have assists in each of his last two games. At 0-2-2, -5 through the first dozen games, the question is one of whether he is coming out of a slump (that he’ll be more the player that was 14-18-32 in 38 games with the Hurricanes last year), or if he’s returning to being the player who bombed in Montreal (9-17-26 in 63 games in 2006-2007) and Chicago (0-4-4 in 23 games last year).

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

Ten years ago, Fedorov signed a $38 million offer sheet with the Hurricanes. The Detroit Red Wings matched the offer, and Fedorov has taken it out on Carolina ever since. In 28 career games against Carolina, he is 10-22-32, +10, with six power play goals and three game winners. Maybe he just likes barbecue.

This is the first of a five-game stretch, four of which the Caps will play at home, that could put the Caps right back into the upper echelon of the standings. It’s one of those stretches that come April might be looked back upon with a “that’s where it all started” sort of memory, or it could be an “if only” regret. The Caps are 6-5-1 against the Hurricanes at home since the lockout. They’ll stay on the good side of .500…

Caps 4 – Hurricanes 3

A ONE-point night: Senators 2 - Caps 1 (OT)

Did you ever find yourself at a traffic light…the light turns green, you step on the gas, and the engine revs up, but you go nowhere?

That’s the Caps right now – stuck in neutral. Such was the case last night as the Caps managed to slip only one shot behind Ottawa goalie Alex Auld in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Senators. What happened?

Alex Ovechkin was held to four shots in his return, none in the last 34:28 of regulation and 4:20 of overtime. It would have made a nice story if he’d notched a goal or two in his return, but the time off showed late.

One minor penalty…one. That was what was called on Ottawa in 64:20 of play. Eric Furlatt and Don Koharski were not paid by the whistle, that’s for sure.

Washington – a town used to quarterback controversies in football – now must think that it is seeing (or about to see) one in the nets for the Caps. Since a lackluster effort in relief in a 7-0 loss to Atlanta, Brent Johnson is 1-0-2, 1.90, .934.

Once again, the opponent got a lot of clean looks at the net. Ottawa managed to get 72 percent of its 61 attempts on net (only three shots by forwards were blocked). The Caps managed to get 55 percent of its 49 attempts on net (10 shots by forwards were blocked).

We’ve noted that Viktor Kozlov has been a slow starter recently, but right now it’s a luxury the Caps can’t afford. It defies belief that a player who gets none other than top-line minutes has managed more than one shot on goal in only two of seven games he’s played. Last night, he had one once more.

That’s 11 games and counting for Nicklas Backstrom without an even-strength point.

Since scoring a power play goal against the Devils, Mike Green is 0-for-21 in shots on goal over six games. The Caps are 2-3-1 in those games, and the Caps’ power play is 3-for-24. Green was 0-for-two last night.

We still wonder about the status of Chris Clark. Clark, moved to the fourth line, logged only 7:58 in playing time. That isn’t the odd number. 0:00 is. That is the shorthanded time he had. Clark has logged a total of 1:11 in shorthanded ice time this year. He averaged 3:34 in 2005-2006 and 2:44 in 2006-2007. Just looking at the numbers, it seems the minutes Clark doesn’t get could be explained by David Steckel getting them (the latter playing only 12 games combined in those first two seasons after the lockout), but it still strikes us as a bit odd.

Any wonder why the Caps couldn’t solve Auld in the third period? Only two of six shots were taken from within 50 feet, only one within 25 feet.

One point is better than none, and the Caps are still hanging onto the periphery of the top-eight (they’re ninth this morning and only two points out of sixth). But it is not a team that looks as if it is playing with much urgency, and they are not creating anything in front of the opponent’s net. Four of the next five are at home, and all five have significant standings implications as they are against Eastern Conference teams, two of them against Southeast Division leader Carolina. It’s an opportunity. But if they play like they have the last two games, they might end up with four or five points and see it down the road as an opportunity lost.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, November 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps are back at it on this Election Day in the United States, and the Caps are casting their absentee hockey effort in Ottawa to take on the Senators. The Caps are coming off a grisly 5-0 loss in Buffalo on Saturday, and this opponent isn’t likely to be any easier…

“They’ll be as hard as the sod in west Texas in July.”

Why, it’s Dan Rather. Dan, you’re usually manning the anchor desk on election night. Shouldn’t you be covering the campaigns?

"Well, yeah, but like we used to say, if a frog had side pockets, he'd carry a handgun."*

Makes you want to avoid French restaurants. But Dan, I didn’t know you were a hockey fan. Any special insight on this one between the Caps and the Senators?

“We need Billy Crystal to Analyze This.”

Well, there’s only the two of us tonight. What about the Caps? Most folks had them as a potential Stanley Cup contender this year, but they’ve stumbled a bit out of the gate. Your take?

"You know that old song, 'it's delightful, it's delicious, it's de-lovely' for the Caps in most areas of the country. However, they had a slight hitch in their giddy up, but they corrected that."

You’re talking about the practice Coach Bruch Boudreau put them through on Sunday morning…

“You could say that like in southern states, he beat them like a rented mule.”

A lot of folks have pointed to the Caps taking a lot of penalties and some below par goaltending. Do you agree?

“You look at them and think they’re thinking, ‘"We don't know what to do. We don't know whether to wind a watch or bark at the moon.’"

Do you think the Caps can turn things around?

"Let's see where it goes from here. Round and round it goes, where it stops nobody knows."

A lot of the focus has been what’s going on down on the ice, but do you think the front office is thinking of pulling the trigger on a deal? George McPhee doesn’t often tip his hand, but do you think he’s working the phones?

"Is it like a swan, with every feather above the water settled, but under the water paddling like crazy?"

What about Ottawa…they’re last in the Northeast.

"This situation in Ottawa would give an aspirin a headache. No question now that the Senators are rapidly reaching the point where they’ve got their backs to the wall, their shirttails on fire and the bill collector's at the door."

The early season has a lot of prognosticators looking pretty bad…

"It's one reason so many of them drink a lot."

Well, that’s our cue to get to the game at hand. The Caps and the Senators come into this game as two of what might be identified as underachievers in the season’s young stages. Combined, the clubs are 9-9-3, with 62 goals scored, 63 alllowed. The term “mediocre” immediately springs to mind…

Ottawa’s problems are not in their special teams. Being top-ten in both power play and penalty killing would be, you would think in this new NHL, a sure-fire recipe for success. It’s just that the Senators have been such a gawd-awful team at even strength. Here is your fun stat as far as that goes. Ottawa has scored only five even strength goals in the first period in 11 games so far – three of them came in a single game (a 6-3 win against Phoenix on October 17th). That leaves two even strength goals scored in the first period in ten other games. Make you want to sneak into the Caps locker room before the game and write on the white board in big block letters…

NO TAKING STOOPID PENALTIES EARLY!!!

If you’re looking at Ottawa on an individual basis, you’re tempted to think they should change their name from the “Senators” to the “Comedians.” Why, because they're just a one liner of a team (we kill us…). Here’s what we mean…

-- The top line of Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daniel Alfredsson has combined to score a total of 15 of the 31 goals the team has scored.

-- They have combined for a total of 35 points. The rest of the team – 17 other skaters having dressed -- has 50.

And here is an indirect indicator of the dominance of the top line – Filip Kuba. Kuba has 12 points, tied with Spezza for second on the club. Of those 12 points, all are assists. Here is how they break down…

-- Eight of them are on goals scored by the top line (three Heatley goals, three Alfredsson goals, and two Spezza goals)

-- Eight of those assists are on the power play (three on goals by Alfredsson, two on goals by Heatley, one on a goal by Spezza).

The disappointments thus far from the Senators don’t take a lot of looking to find. Antoine Vermette was a player that might have been looked to for a big breakthrough season on the heels of his 24-goal year last year. Certainly the Senators thought so, giving him a two-year, $5.525 million contract (thus avoiding arbitration that might have resulted in a bigger payday). But while has been launching shots in an almost Ovechkinian fashion (38 in 11 games), Vermette has but has two goals to show for it. In 15 career games against Washington, Vermette is 2-2-4, -8, with a shorthanded goal.

Mike Fisher has had to deal with a groin injury that caused him to miss a couple of games in mid-October, but in the nine games he has played in, he has yet to register a point and is a minus-5. In 20 career games against the Caps, Fisher is 7-6-13, -5, with three power play goals, a shorthanded goal, and a game-winner.

In goal, one would think Alex Auld has taken over the top spot in the Senators’ nets. He brings a 3-2-1, 2.15, .931 record into the game, and perhaps more importantly for the short term, has been the goalie getting the call in the last four games for the Senators. Ominously enough for Caps fans, he’s allowed four, three, two, and one goal in those four games. Clearly, a shutout is in the offing (uh, that’s a joke, dear reader). He hasn’t been especially successful against the Caps, though. In six career games, he is 2-2-1, 2.57, .899, but he has authored a shutout (a 6-0 win while with Vancouver in 2003).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Anton Volchenkov

It isn’t often that a player with two points and a minus-4 in 11 games would get such attention, but Volchenkov has been something of a shot-blocking machine. Last year, despite missing 15 games, he finished second in the league. He led the league by a whopping 45 blocked shots the previous year. For a club that doesn’t have the top-notch goaltending you’d expect of a contender, this guy could be the goalie’s best friend on the ice and could serve to frustrate Caps looking to get pucks on net.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Ovechkin returns in this game from a hiatus to help care for his ailing grandfather in Russia. He is also burdened with having gotten off to a slow start – tied for 189th in scoring at 2-3-5. But Ovechkin has made the Senators his personal scrimmage club, going 10-9-19, +6 in 12 career games. He’s had three power play goals, a shorthanded goal, two game-winners, and a four goal night in his brief career against Ottawa. If Ovechkin is going to shake his early season difficulties, this could be as good as any a team against which to do it.

Ottawa, as a club that was a perennial contender in this decade, seems to be extending their disappointing play that emerged in the second half of last season. The Caps, the hot finisher last spring and darling of the hockey punditocracy in the pre-season, hasn’t exactly electrified the league. Something has to give. The Senators have incentive here – they lost all four games to the Caps last year, giving up 22 goals in the process. But the flip side of that is that the Caps might have this club’s number in terms of exploiting its defense and goaltending.

Well, Dan, whaddya think…will the Caps’ll win tonight?

"No one is saying that Washington is not going to win this game, and if you had to bet the double-wide, you'd have to bet that they'd win."

We would too…

Caps 5 – Senators 3

Oh, and by the way...

Get out and vote!!!

* Based on actual Dan Ratherisms…swear to God.

The First Ten -- The Players

We’ve looked at the team, but what about the pieces – the individuals so far this season? Start with the young guns – Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green (click on the image for a larger version)…


As a group, these guys are the anti-Goldilocks. They haven’t performed as a group up to the way they finished the season last year, but they’re further along as a group than they were to start the 2007-2008 season. That should not be interpreted (to carry along the Goldilocks analogy) as being “just right.” This result shouldn’t be unexpected, given that the Caps are neither quite as badly off as in the first ten games last year, nor are they as well off as the blazing finish last year. But, this is the group upon whom the fortunes of the Caps rest (at least among those who don’t strap on leg pads). It really needs to get better.

What is perhaps odd about this group is that they have precisely the same number of combined power play goals, assists, and points as what they finished with over the last ten games of last year. As a group they have the same number of game winning goals. It is at even strength where they have been less effective, with three fewer goals, three fewer assists, and down 10 on the combined plus/minus.

That the group is as close as they are to where they finished the season last year is, of course, a product of the play of Alexander Semin. Up three goals, seven assists, ten points, and up nine in plus/minus, Semin has carried the Caps on the offensive side of the ledger in the early going. Conversely, Alex Ovechkin has gotten off to a slow start, which has been chronicled in enough places. The odd element here is the performance of Nicklas Backstrom, whose performance thus far suffers perhaps more than the others in terms of the burden of expectations. Backstrom finished with a rush last year, but looking at his start this year, it looks a lot like his start last year. The silver lining there is that this might be less the beginning of a sophomore slump than it is just a slow start.

Then there are the “new guys.” As a group, that includes Michael Nylander, Chris Clark, and Sergei Fedorov, who are either coming back from missing large chunks of last year (Nylander, Clark) or are here for the start of the year (Fedorov).


The stats look better so far in comparison to the last ten games of last year, but when two guys didn’t play a game in that stretch, you’d better have that result. Getting 16 points from Nylander and Fedorov is about as good as one might expect from a guy coming off a major injury and another who is in the tail end of his career. The problem here is the early performance of Clark. We can’t know if there are lingering effects from the groin injury that limited Clark to 18 games last year, and Clark’s being a top scorer is not critical to the success of this team. But so far, one point (and that coming almost a month ago, in the third game of the season) is something that has to improve.

We might also take a look at what we’ll refer to as the “next tier” guys – players who don’t often show up in bright lights on the score sheet, but who did make contributions last year and would be expected to make important contributions this year…


This is another group that sits squarely between the highs of the last ten games last year and the lows of last year’s first ten games. The disappointment here is the play of Viktor Kozlov, who despite getting top line responsibility and minutes, has only three points in six games and is a minus-1. Kozlov has battled a knee injury, missing four games out of the first ten, and in that there is one of those silver linings. Pro-rated over ten games, his early performance doesn’t look much different than his first ten games last year. Now, you could argue, “that was under Glen Hanlon,” and you might have a point (you could make that argument for any of the “first ten” game numbers we’re using as comparisons). But, in 2006-2007 he was 2-3-5, even, through ten games…in 2005-2006 he was 2-3-5, +1, through ten games. See a pattern?

Then there are the “crash and bangers.” What one might be looking for here is not scoring, but energy and keeping other teams off the board...


In that respect, this bunch is struggling. Even though they, as a group, are scoring more than either the first ten or the last ten games of last year (Steckel missing all of the last ten regular season games last year with a finger injury), all are on the minus side of the ledger so far this year. One of the things to watch doesn’t appear in that graphic above. David Steckel and Boyd Gordon were among the league leaders in faceoffs last year, finishing seventh and ninth, respectively last year. They are down a bit so far in the first ten games this year – Steckel from 56.3 percent to 54.8 percent and Gordon from 55.8 percent to 54.8 percent – but Steckel has been very effective of late (six of his last seven games over 50 percent), as has Gordon (four straight over 50 percent). Possessing the puck requires having the puck – it helps to start plays in that position.

Looking at the defense, one number screams off the page. See if you can find it…


This group (not including, of course, Tyler Sloan) finished the year with a plus-25 in the last ten games. None of the top four – Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Tom Poti, or Shaone Morrisonn – were worse than plus-5. This group is a combined minus-1 through the first ten games so far, and as a group, the defense has struggled. Now, is that a chicken and the egg problem (goaltending being the egg to the defense’s chicken)? Hard to say. But it would be hard to make an argument that the defense has played well in any case. The silver lining is in looking at how the group improved from the first ten (under presumably a more defense-oriented coach in Glen Hanlon) to the last ten games. This bunch certainly has it in them to play well. They just haven’t so far. And perhaps even more than getting Alex Ovechkin up to the productive pace to which we are accustomed, getting these guys playing well will be the big factor in getting the Caps off and running toward a playoff spot as the season wears on.

If you look at the goaltenders, it isn’t hard to see what the problem is…


They’re not stopping enough pucks (-smack-…duh!). Despite the fact that the Caps have allowed the seventh fewest shots per game in the league, they are 24th in goals allowed per game. A lot of that is poor defense, generally, but the goaltender is the last line of that defense. Jose Theodore ranks 35th in save percentage in the league (.877). If that number doesn’t improve significantly, it’s hard to see how this team makes the playoffs. One simply can’t count on the Caps scoring four goals a game on a nightly basis. Why?...well, the leading goals per game average has decreased in every year since the lockout. Ottawa led the league at 3.80 goals/game in 2005-2006, Buffalo led with 3.63 a game in 2006-2007, and Ottawa led last year at 3.15 goals/game.

Here is one last point. Much is made about a team having to play 60 minutes of hockey to be successful. The Caps are getting more like 54…three 18 minute periods. They have surrendered eight goals in the first or last minute of a period this year. With more discipline, their goals allowed per game might be reduced from 3.30 a game (24th) to 2.50 a game (10th). The good news is that is a problem that is not one of lack of talent, but of lack of discipline. It is a problem that a capable coaching staff can correct, and if they do, the Caps chances will suddenly look much better.

Rodney Dangersemin?

So, we were checking out NHL.com to read about Alexander Semin being named first star in the league for October, expecting to read about how he finished the month among the league leaders in most offensive categories. We clicked on the link on the NHL.com home page and were taken to this story...

What does a guy have to do to get a little respect?

Well, congratulations Alexander, it was an honor richly deserved.

The First Ten -- The Team

Ten games are in the books, and it’s as good a time as any to take a look at where the Caps stand.

First, let’s keep in mind that the object of the exercise is to win the Stanley Cup, not show well or merely make the playoffs. So, in keeping with this theme of “tens,” how did the last ten winners do in their first ten games?

No Stanley Cup winner in the last ten years has won fewer than six games, but perhaps more tellingly, they don’t lose. Only one team lost as many as three games in regulation time in their first ten games. The Caps, at 5-4-1 through their first ten games, have a lot of work – not to mention recent history to overcome – to realize their goal.

But looking at the Caps in comparison with themselves, the picture somewhat more mixed. Again, in keeping with the notion of looking at ten-game segments, we looked at the first ten games played to date in comparison with two other sets of ten – the last ten they played (corresponding to the last ten games of last year) and the same “first ten” segment from a year ago.

It’s tempting to say that the first ten games this year look like the first ten games last year, but that comparison does not bear up under scrutiny. This year’s club is clearly better offensively (or at least permits a fuller expression of the offensive talent available). In fact, the Caps’ performance over the first ten games on offense (32 goals) looks a lot like how they closed the season last year (31 goals). The difference between this club and the one that finished last year is on defense. The Caps have allowed 33 goals (excluding Gimmicks) so far. Compare that to the 19 they allowed over the last ten games last year, and you can understand why it is that people say, “defense wins championships.”

What is perhaps striking about this club versus the one that closed the season last year is in how similar they look in many respects. That’s to be expected, given the continuity of the Boudreau system. If you look at goals for, shots, shots allowed, power plays (opportunities and goals), the clubs are very similar in results.

Perhaps the most important difference to recognize between this club and the one that finished last year is on special teams. You’ll note that on the power play, there isn’t a lot of difference, either in the number of opportunities (50 in the first ten this year, 49 in the last ten last year) or success (eight goals versus seven). The difference is on the penalty kill. The Caps were not then, and are not now, an especially talented penalty killing club. The percentages (80.0 percent this year, 79.5 percent in the last ten last year) bear this out. The difference is in opportunities. Last year, the Caps were on the short end of the manpower situation only 39 times in the last ten games. So far this year, that number is 60, which looks uncomfortably like the number through the first ten games last year (52), and it’s killing them.

There is also the matter of getting a lead. In the last ten games last year, the Caps led first in seven of them. They won them all. This year, they have led first in four games and split them (2-2-1). They’ve been less effective getting a lead and capitalizing a lead. In fact, this year’s early performance looks – again, uncomfortably – like last year’s early performance (3-2-0 when leading first). It’s also worth noting that the Caps got a lead in seven of those ten games to close last year. So far this year – five times, same as last year. One would rather not have that comparison.

The Caps aren’t a carbon copy of last year’s “first ten games” team, especially in style. But they are a little too close to that club in appearance as far as results go, especially in the performance of special teams and an inability to get up on teams and close them out. The early record of 5-4-1 suggests that their chances of winning a Cup this year (given the early performance of recent Cup winners) are dim. But virtually the same team last year closed the year on a 9-1-0 run, scoring more than a goal a game more than their opponents in the process. The Caps are capable of dominating play. What appears to be the case so far is that the very things that could undermine their play – a lack of hard work in their own end, a tendency toward the lazy penalty and the predictable results (given that the Caps haven’t been that effective a penalty killing squad) – are what is doing them in at this early juncture.

Not a smile in the bunch

We thought we'd mosey on over to practice this morning to see how the morning after a poor effort would be rewarded. It went pretty much as we thought it might...skate, skate, and skate some more. There was a minimum of "down time" to lean in and see what Coach Boudreau had for the next drill. There were a lot of whistles (to start guys on the next round of drills) and a lot of barking (from the coach).

There weren't any smiles, and from where we were, it didn't even seem as if there was much talking among the players. It was just a case of hold your nose, and open wide, 'cuz here comes your medicine.

Now THIS is a draft history...from Hell

We usually bring up Larry Brooks in the context of, "he said what?!" But for those of you Caps fans who sit up late at night sticking pins in little George McPhee and Ross Mahoney dolls, read our pal Lar's tiptoe through the Ranger wreckage of drafts over the last dozen years...

What a roster of first-rounders it is:

1996: Jeff Brown
1997: Stefan Cherneski
1998: Manny Malhotra
1999: Pavel Brendl, Jamie Lundmark
2000: no pick
2001: Dan Blackburn
2002: no pick
2003: Hugh Jessiman
2004: Al Montoya, Lauri Korpikoski
2005: Marc Staal
2006: Bobby Sanguinetti
2007: Alexei Cherepanov
2008: Michael Del Zotto

...yeesh.

Don't look now, but...

Washington: 5-4-1 (11 points)
Tampa Bay: 4-3-3 (11 points)

Mike Smith: 3-2-2, 2.07, .941
Olaf Kolzig: 1-1-1, 2.67, .925

But hey, it's still early...

...right?

A NO-point night: Sabres 5 - Caps 0

It was a team effort.

On a night when Brent Johnson was the most effective Cap, that’s about the best you can say about a 5-0 loss to the Buffalo Sabres in which the Caps were never competitive…at all…ever…in 60 minutes of, well, play (I guess).

Johnson was the one on the end of the bench in the baseball cap.

You’d like to think that this loss was just a stinker, but you know, this is getting to be a concern. That’s 13 goals allowed in the last three games and the fourth time in ten games this year that the Caps have allowed five or more goals. This is not, by any measure you’d care to use, as much as a competent defensive team. They’re bad, and there isn’t any way to sugar coat that. From the goaltender out, they are a poor defensive team. Tonight was no exeception…

Twice, the Sabres scored in the last minute of regulation. In 30 periods of regulation play so far this season, the Caps have surrendered a goal in the first or last minute of eight of them. That’s eight goals of the 33 that the Caps have surrendered. It’s happened five times in nine periods in the last three games. That’s just a lack of attention. Keep that up, and there won’t be any “rocking the red” in April.

Of course, giving up goals in the last minute of play has its complement – Thomas Vanek (did the Caps not cover this guy in the pre-game meetings?) scored on the first shot of the game.

Only two skaters – John Erskine and David Steckel – stayed out of the minus column. Even Shaone Morrisonn (who left with an injury after only 6:03 of playing time) managed to finish with a -1.

The Caps just yielded too much of the ice to the Sabres. The five goals were scored from a combined total of 61 feet. That wasn’t as much a case of a lack of physicality in close as it was just not covering or keeping up with guys.

Here is another indicator of that…the Caps had only seven blocked shots. No one was close enough to a Sabre to get in the way; there were just too many rushes and open looks.

Of the 29 shots the Caps took, 16 of them were from above the circles. Any wonder why Ryan Miller pitched a shutout?

The Caps are 0-3-1 in games in which they score fewer than four goals. That’s an indicator that goalies aren’t stealing any games. Of course, the only way a goalie steals a game when his team doesn’t score is in a Gimmick. But if the Caps have to score four to win on a nightly basis…well, like we said, there won’t be any “rocking the red” in April.

We’re convinced…Nicklas Backstrom has an injury. That has to be it.

Did Viktor Kozlov dress tonight?

Oh, let’s just say it…the top line was awful tonight. No points, four shots (three by Backstrom), -3. If Ovechkin is that important, he shouldn’t win a Hart, he should get a Nobel Prize for Hockey.

It’s the fourth time in ten games that the Caps have had to kill off at least seven shorthanded situations (the number tonight was eight). That’s just too much time expending a lot of energy and getting out of the substitution rhythm.

Here’s an example of balance. The teams were relatively even in shots (Washington led, 29-27), but while the Caps had a total of 11 skaters taking shots, the Sabres had nine with multiple shots, none with more than four. Buffalo played its game, the Caps did not.

There were 56 faceoffs in the game. Derek Roy took 25 of them for the Sabres (he won 13, the only Sabre to win a majority of his draws). That just strikes us as an odd result.

And here is your bedtime stat…since the lockout, of the 24 teams making the playoffs out of the Eastern Conference only five have won fewer than 20 road games. Only one – the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2005-2006 – finished the season with a below-.500 road record. The Caps are 2-4-0 away from Verizon Center.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, November 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are live here at Peerless Central with the last prognostication you’ll ever need on tonight’s tilt between the Capitals and the Buffalo Sabres at Home of the Sabres Bitching Center Arena. To look at some Buffalo sites, you’d think the Sabres were the bottom feeders of the NHL…

“Pominville, Roy off to Slow Starts”

-- Buffalo News (online) headline

“Ruff Barks after team plays without bite.”

-- Another Buffalo News (online) headline

“Ruff Shakes Things Up in Depth Chart”

-- Sabres.com

“It seems like when we get home we try to make that extra play, try to make it a little too cute and it ends up costing us.”

-- Jason Pominville, in Sabres Notebook (Sabres.com)

"[The Lightning] won more battles. That’s all it comes down to. They won more battles and I’m not going to make any excuses. They were the better team, they won the battles they skated better and they were a lot better with the puck and that showed. They made a lot better plays."

-- Lindy Ruff, after a loss to the Lightning Thursday night

“Music to my ears…”

Well, if it isn’t Cheerless…hey cousin, I haven’t seen you since…

“Yeah, since you had us do those infernal previews. Where’s that beer you promised?

Uh, it’s in the mail. What are you doing here?

“You know me…’Cheerless’ an ‘ all that. Well, what more cheerless place is there than Buffalo?”

What do you mean, cuz?

“I was reading that Buffalo.com site?...and whaddya think they’re talking about on their ‘Let’s Talk’ column?...

”Take a deep breath, or time to panic? Everything seemed so nice a few weeks ago. As recently as Oct. 23, the Buffalo Bills were 5-1 and memories of the Arizona massacre were already dim thanks to a nice performance against the stumbling San Diego Chargers, and the Sabres were 6-0-1 after a miraculous win in Minnesota. Since that fateful Thursday, however, our hometown teams have combined for zero wins and 4 losses - including embarrassing missteps to the Miami Dolphins and Ottawa Senators, two of local sports fans' most hated rivals.”

“Makes me look like Polly Sunshine, don’t it?”

I see your point…but let’s focus, shall we, on the Sabres, who did start 6-0-1, but who are 0-2-1 in their three games to close out the month of October. Overall, where to the contestants rank?...




First, we put those hits up there as an indicator that this isn’t likely to be a rock ‘em-sock ‘em sort of game. There is likely to be an up and down aspect to it that could be of advantage to the Caps, since their shot differential (5.4 shots-per-game to the good) is much greater than is Buffalo’s (-0.3 shots-per-game). Add that to the disparity in faceoffs won, and you would think one thing to look for is how well the Caps can tilt the rink toward Ryan Miller and the Sabres’ defense.

Apart from that, there is the matter of whose will can be imposed on the other. The Caps would like to make this a 5-on-5 game. Their goals for/goals against ratio at five-on-five is markedly better than is Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Buffalo clearly has the better special teams play, both when having a man advantage and when down a man.

The battle of wills also extends to who scores first. If the Sabres do, they usually win. If the Caps allow that first goal, they usually…win. The thing is, though, there is perhaps no more reliable indicator of which team will win an NHL game than looking at who scores first. 27 teams have a winning percentage of .500 or better when getting the first goal. Washington, it is worth noting, is one of the three teams not in that group.

Individually, a discussion of the Sabres might start with Thomas Vanek. The $50 million man (over seven years, as the Sabres matched an offer tendered by Edmonton last year) had something of a slump last year in the first year of his big contract. He dropped off by seven goals, 13 assists, and 20 points in finishing 36-28-64. The biggest drop of all was in his plus-minus number. After leading the league in that figure with a +47 in 2006-2007, he dropped off to a -5 last year that had him ahead of only Dmitri Kalinin and Maxim Afinogenov on his own team. It suggested that perhaps he was less his own talent and perhaps more of who he was surrounded by in 2006-2007 (Daniel Briere and Chris Drury having left Buffalo last year in free agency).

Well, Vanek has come back with a vengeance. He leads the Sabres in goals (1st in the NHL), points (T-10th in the NHL), power play goals (T-4th), and shorthanded goals (T-1st). He has not been extraordinarily successful (3-5-8, +6 in 12 career games) against the Caps. He was held without a point in three games against Washington last year…but he was 2-3-5 in four games in 2006-2007.

On the other side is Derek Roy. Perhaps no other player emerged from under the shadow of the departed Briere and Drury for the Sabres last year than did Roy. He improved his scoring from 21-42-63 in 2006-2007 to a 32-49-81 mark last year, getting an additional 2:31 of ice time a night. This year, Roy is leading all Sabre forwards in ice time per game (2:32 more than last year and more than five minutes more than two seasons ago), but he’s struggled. His 1-4-5 is good for only seventh in scoring on the team; his only goal an overtime game winner against Minnesota.

At the other end of the ice, the Sabres are characterized by a balanced, mobile blue line. There is no real big hitter there, no top scorer, and none of the group emerges when there is a discussion of best-in-the-NHL candidates. But Jaroslav Spacek, Teppo Numminen, Tony Lydman, and Henrik Tallinder are all solid two way players. To that group was added Craig Rivet, presumably as a defensive anchor. However, Rivet had arthroscopic knee surgery recently and is out for this one.

The other addition is intriguing. Andrej Sekera, who played in 37 games as a rookie with the Sabres last year, leads the Sabres in ice time this year. The trouble, perhaps, for the Sabres, is that in doing so, he’s been a minus player in six of his ten games and five of his last six. Not to say he’s the cause of such a result, but he’s been in the vicinity. One would think that if Rivet was in the lineup, Sekera would not be getting that amount of work (averaging almost 27 minutes a game since Rivet went out).

The last line of defense for the Sabres is goalie Ryan Miller. Miller is staking an early claim to be considered among the league’s top goalies. He is fourth in the league in goals against (2.07), tied for sixth in save percentage (.928), and brings a record of 5-1-1 into this game. He did, however, lay an egg in allowing five goals on the first 30 shots he faced in a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday. His numbers against Washington are not as bright – 2.75 GAA and .900 save percentage, but he does have a 7-2-0 record in ten career appearances against Washington.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Maxim Afinogenov

The 29-year old forward has yet to score a goal this year (0-7-7). One might think this a slump, but his goal scoring dropped off from 23 (in 56 games) in 2006-2007 to ten (in 56 games) last year. He has one goal in his last 25 regular season games (1-12-13, -9). But, he is 8-10-18, +1 in 27 career games against the Caps. Which Afinogenov shows up tonight will likely be an important factor in whether the Sabres can break their losing streak.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Laich is likely to open on the left side of the top line, replacing Alex Ovechkin. Although Laich has only a single goal in his last seven games, his importance here might not be in scoring as much as it will be doing the dirty work to get the puck to Nicklas Backstrom and Viktor Kozlov. If he can pick up the garbage in front, all the better. Given that Buffalo doesn’t, as a rule, have an especially physical defense, he might get opportunities in that area.

The Caps haven’t yet righted the ship after losing the first two games of the western road swing – their two wins have been shaky, to say the least. But they’ve found a way to scratch out extra points in both in extra time. That seems to be the formula for the moment, and in a hostile place that has been unkind to them lately (the Caps are 3-7 over the last five seasons in Buffalo), they’ll have to have their sandpaper out to scrape one out.

Caps 3 – Sabres 2

The Story of Bruce

John Walton has the information on Bruce Boudreau's autobiography, coming out in October 2009.

The Sloan Era

Tarik El-Bashir reports in Capitals Insider that Tyler Sloan has been returned to the Hershey Bears. Sloan -- heretofore a player who logged AHL time with Syracuse and Manitoba, as well as Hershey in the AHL -- had a nice little run here. It argues for him being on a short list of potential emergency call-ups this season. In his four games...

Record: 2-2-0
Scoring: 1-0-1

Average ice time: 10:38

Plus/minus: even

Shooting percentage: 50% (1-for-2)

Hits: 6 (good for 11th on the team...not bad for a guy who's played fewer than half the games)

Slobberknocker hits: 1 (Daymond...Daymond...uh, Daymond?)

Horror Show at the Confluence

"Saw V"...a Disney film

"A Nightmare on Elm Street?"...a Spielberg feel good movie

"The Texas Chainsaw Massacre?"...pfft...a Cartoon Network feature

"Psycho?"... a story of family love


Now this is a horror show...

...if you're a Penguin fan.


mwah-hahahahahahaha...

It's a movie waiting to happen

Last night, the last thing we did before retiring was to read with interest an article dated this morning in the Washington Post by Tarik El-Bashir on George McPhee, educator, and wondered...


Raiders of the Lost Cup?

Washington McPhee and the Center on Fun Street?

Washington McPhee and the Stanley Cup Crusade?

Washington McPhee and the Kingdom of Lord Stanley's Chalice?

"V-I-C-T-O-R-Y... the search for victory. Not truth. If it's truth you're interested in, Doctor Tyree's Philosophy class is right down the hall. So forget any ideas you've got about fancy parties, exotic travel, and taking over the sports world. We do not get features on SportsCenter and "$" never, ever, marks the bottom line."


We really need to lay off the anchovy and pineapple pizza before bed...

Wisdom

I saw this at one of my favorite sites today...

...and thought to myself (at least with respect to your favorite prognosticator), "and never used so many words to say it."

Just keep telling yourself...

...it's for a good cause, it's for a good cause...

The warmup jerseys were part of a promotion at the Hershey Bears' "Pink at the Rink" night last Sunday, at which jerseys were auctioned, with proceeds going to the American Cancer Society.

They actually look sort of cool.

Thanks to The Red Skate for pointing us to Derek Meluzio's blog, "Stack the Pads," which had links to these fine pictures, among others.

Sometimes the Bear gets you...

...and sometimes the Bulldog gets the Bear.

It was a case of 1-2-3, as in, one goal in the first, two in the second, and three in the third as the Hamilton Bulldogs treated the Bears like Pooh in a 6-0 win last night.

The Bulldogs had a pair of shorthanded goals and a power play marker to add to the three even strength goals they had.

One might not have seen this one coming, as the Bulldogs were 0-2-1 in their previous three games going into last night's contest. But it was one of those nights, apparently, when whatever could go wrong, did, for the visitors.

Sami Lepisto seemed to have an especially difficult evening. Going into the game with a league-leading +10, he was a -4 on the night. His turnover led to the Bulldog's shortie, and he was on the ice for the three even-up goals. But he certainly wasn't alone. That oh-for-seven power play stands out, too.

But even with this stinker, consider...

- The Bears still have four of the top ten in the AHL in plus-minus (ten players are tied for ninth)

- They still have five players in the top ten in goals (although there is a real train wreck of players tied for ninth at five goals)

- They have three in the top ten in assists (again, a large group tied at ninth)

- They have two of the top-ten rookie scorers

- They still have those 44 goals scored, while no other AHL team has yet cracked the 30-goal mark

- They are still on a pace for 391 goals, which would be 91 more than last year's league leader (Chicago: 300)

- They're still on a pace for 124 points (the franchise record is 114 set two years ago; the league record is 124, set by Binghamton in 1992-1993)

Perhaps it was a serving of humble pie or a bad night in what has been, and what still looks like it could be, an otherwise remarkable season up in Hershey.

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Predators 3 (OT/SO)

It’s still two points…it’s still two points.

Hey, if the Caps win 45 more games as ugly as that, color The Peerless pink with glee. For those of you who didn’t suffer through the Eukanuba Dog Show on Versus – oh, excuse me, the Flyers 7-0 win over Atlanta – the Caps sleep-walked their way through the last 45 minutes of regulation and overtime, ultimately relying on a couple of backhand scores in the Gimmick round of the competition to beat the Nashville Predators, 4-3.

One might be tempted to say that the Caps did everything they could to give the game away, but the verb “to give” is a verb of action, and there was precious little action on the part of the Caps in those last 45 minutes of actual hockey-like skating. It was more like, “Hey, you want it? Fine…let us know when to lock up.” And even with all of that, the Predators couldn’t snatch victory from the jaws of…the napping.

The best that can be said of this is that it is a win, and with it the Caps have gotten to ten points (actually 11 with the win) faster – in their ninth game – than any season since 1997-1998 (when they did it in six games and went to the Stanley Cup final). Other stuff…

There are times, watching Alexander Semin, when one might think, “if he had a bow, instead of a stick, he’d be Rostropovich on the cello.” His pass to David Steckel, springing the latter for a shorthanded breakaway goal, after peeling back and around to restart the play was a sight to behold. Then there was his own goal, catching Preds goalie Dan Ellis going the wrong way and lifting the puck (it actually looked like something of a mishit) over Ellis’ glove. Finally, there was his nice-as-you-please backhand in the shootout that looked like one of those “why can’t everyone do this” kind of score.

Just an observation, but watching Boyd Gordon skate is a little bit like watching Walter Brennan in The Real McCoys. He gets there, but he has an odd way of looking about it.

The Caps skated real purdy in the first period, and for all their synchronized skating got absolutely squadoosh. The scored on an ugly goal from in front and a breakaway that looked like it leaked off of Steckel’s stick and caught Ellis thinking it would be a crisper shot.

How many times on the Caps’ five power plays did anyone plant their caboose in Ellis’ face? For that matter, how many times did anyone bother to stand to the side and wave their stick? If the answer was “none,” it would not surprise me. Except for when Semin scored eight seconds into the last Capitals man advantage, the power play looked like an advertisement for Totes (that’s an umbrella thing).

Mike Green had an interesting night…four shots, four giveaways, four takeaways, four blocked shots. But here might be the most interesting number on his line. He was on the ice for 7:03 of the total 7:53 of Caps power play time.

When you lead in shots 23-6, then give up a goal to tie the game 2-2, you usually come out on the losing end of the final score. Give credit to the Caps for not letting the night slip entirely away.

If defensive defensemen can be in slumps, it seems Shaone Morrisonn is in one. The interference penalty he took late in the third didn’t look like a smart play. The puck was headed elsewhere, and he didn’t disengage from the other player.

Nicklas Backstrom looks like he is this close to getting a four assist night. This was the rare night this year where he looked as if he was doing a better job of getting the puck to people where they could do something with it.

The Caps got Michael Nylander in part for his ability in the Gimmick. One could see why tonight. His backhand was pretty, too.

The Caps outshot Nashville 19-4 in the first period. OK, so why didn’t it look as if Dan Ellis was making many tough saves?

Jason Arnott got two of the flukier goals of his career – the first when the puck bounced all the way across the crease past three player and right onto his stick for an uncontested backhand, and another when the puck snuck through a clot of and Arnott redirectred it off the post and past goalie Jose Theodore.

The Caps split 64 draws with Nashville, but won 11 of 18 in the defensive zone.

The crowd was announced as 17,011. Hallowe’en must have started early with all the folks dressed as purple seats.

It was a curious kind of game in that the whole arena seemed to lack intensity. Perhaps it was a case of no Ovechkin, no Horn Guy (at least I did not hear him), and no Voice (at least I didn’t hear him). Even the mites-on-ice feature at the first intermission seemed to fail in exciting the crowd.

For all the whining of yours truly, though, the Caps are now atop the Southeast Conference, and they have not lost a game in regulation at home (3-0-1). Alexander Semin stands alone at the top of the scoring rankings, and he is tied for the league lead in goals. It’s worth noting that Semin has eight goals in his first nine games this season. That’s something Alex Ovechkin has not accomplished in any of his four seasons (he’s had six three times).

Hey, in the end, it’s two points. This isn’t the Beauty Contest Series of college football, where you get style points for whoopin’ your opponents. Two points ugly pays the same as two points pretty. That’s the bottom line.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Predators, October 28th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!


The Capitals are back home tonight after a 1-2-0 road trip to take on the Nashville Predators. It is an opportunity for Caps fans to gaze in wonderment at what might be the most gawd-awful uniform ever foisted upon a team in the National Hockey League (well, since those pajamas the Flyers wore some years back, anyway). Not least bizarre in the scheme is the team logo, some sort of prehistoric creature with some serious overbite issues. The Peerless tracked down the esteemed paleontologist, Dr. Alan Grant, to get his take on just what this odd creature is…

Dr. Grant, welcome…

“This isn’t about some park you want to open, is it?”

No, Dr. Grant…we’re not opening a park. Dr. Grant, we wanted to get your opinion on the creature depicted in the logo of the Nashville Predators hockey team. You’ve seen it, I take it?

“Not much of a hockey fan, myself…I’m usually out in the field digging up bones or trying to escape the odd velociraptor.”

Well, here the logo is some sort of creature that resembles the saber-toothed tiger.

“Ah, well, there is your first mistake. It is a common one. The saber-toothed ‘tiger’ is not a single species at all, but serve to describe a group of species, some of which are related to kangaroos.”

Really?

“Yes, but what most people associate with the ‘saber-toothed tiger’ is a member of the ‘smilodon’ genus.”

You’re pulling my leg…

“Only if it’s in a dig…sorry, that’s a paleontology joke.”

So, is this the basis for the logo of the Predators?

"Well, no…the teeth are much too large in relation to the cranial vault. If I was to hazard a professional opinion, I think that the basis of the logo is Jerry Lewis…probably from the early Nutty Professor period."

Thanks, Doc…As for tonight’s game, the Predators come into it with very middle-of-the-road numbers:

Record: 4-4-0
Goals for/game: 3.50 (T-5)
Goals against/game: 3.88 (28th)
5-on-5: 1.00 (T-13)
Power Play: 17.1 (T-17th)
Penalty Killing: 75.6 (26th)
Win when scoring first: .600 (T-19)
Win when trailing first: .333 (T-16)


This is another of those Western Conference teams that Caps fans don’t get to see much of. The Predators have played in Washington once in the last four seasons, taking away a 5-2 win in December 2005 (it’s so long ago, Ben Clymer had a goal in that one, and the Caps had assists from Andrew Cassels, Jamie Heward, and Brian Sutherby).

This Predator team suffers the low expectations of comparisons with the Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings and this season’s “it” team, the Chicago Blackhawks in their own division. This will be the Predators’ first game against an Eastern Conference opponent this year. In an eerie way, the team that employs former Capitals General Manager David Poile in a similar capacity looks more than a bit like the Capitals teams under Poile.

For instance, the Predators are led in scoring at the moment by a defenseman – Shea Weber (the 1990-1991 Capitals team was led in scoring by defenseman Kevin Hatcher). Weber is part of a solid, if not spectacular blue line (which sounds like the Caps of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s) that includes Ryan Suter, Dan Hamhuis, and Greg DeVries.

This year is very much a return to a defense-centric attack. The blue line has amassed seven goals in the eight games thus far. Weber has three of them, and only Hamhuis and Ville Kostinen among the defensemen have not scored a goal for Nashville. As a group, they have 22 points (the Caps’ blueliners have a total of 16 points).

The Predators – again, like many of those old Caps teams – lack high-end scoring talent, but they do have balance. Three players – Weber, J.P. Dumont, and Jason Arnott – have put up at least a point a game through eight games. Seven others have average at least a point every other game, among those players playing in at least half (four) of the Predators’ games.

What the balance the Predators bring to the game has done is permitted them to get off to fast starts. No team in the league has scored more first period goals than Nashville (11, tied with Chicago and Calgary). That could be critical, given that the Caps have allowed the fourth highest number of first period goals this year (11, tied with Dallas). The other side of that coin is that only seven teams have scored fewer than the seven goals the Predators have in the third period this year.

Nashville also can score in bunches. Twice this season the Predators have scored three goals in less than four minutes, and those six goals were scored by six different players. Five of them were at even strength.

In goal, Dan Ellis has gotten the call in all eight games this year for Nashville, starting in seven of them (he came on in relief of Pekka Rinne after Rinne allowed three goals on eight shots in a 5-3 loss to Columbus). If Ellis is called upon once more, he is 0-1-0, 12.00, .625 in one career appearance against the Caps. He gave up three goals in the opening 14:40, at which point he was pulled in a 4-2 loss to Washington last season.

The Peerless' Players to Ponder

Nashville: Radek Bonk

If there is one Predator who has a history against the Capitals, it’s Bruce Garrioch’s favorite trade rumor on skates, Radek Bonk. In 42 career games against Washington, most of them as a member of the Ottawa Senators, Bonk is 8-15-23, +9, with three power play goals and a game winner. He’s off to something of a slow start with Nashville (1-1-2, -1 in six game) but will be a player to watch.

Washington: Alexander Semin

With the “other” Alex out for this game, Semin now gets a lot of the focus Ovechkin was getting early on. The league’s co-leader in total scoring and third leading goal scorer has one goal in two career games against Nashville – it happened to be the one that touched off the three-goal barrage that ended Dan Ellis’ night early last year.

The Caps have done it this year without Ovechkin being at the top of his game. Now, they have to do it without him in the lineup. Those are different things, owing to the fact that even as he had “only” two goals in eight games, Ovechkin commanded attention. Now, that attention will be lavished on others. This will probably be a tighter game, and if the Caps don’t get caught up in the old “we’re back home, let’s put on a show for the crowd” mentality, they should do just fine.

Caps 3 – Predators 2

B-L-U-E-S...WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

We saw this on Hershey Bears' announcer John Walton's blog, and thought we'd pass along the "local guy makes good" story...

Hockeytics

Sarah Palin drops the puck at two NHL games (disaster ensuing...Flyers stumble out of the gate, Manny Legace stumbles over carpet)...and now, courtesy of the AHL's Lake Erie Monsters...

Frankly, we'll stick with this...

The Viewer's Non-Viewing Guide to Caps Hockey

As you know by now, the Caps will not be on the tee-vee when they return home to play the Nashville Predators on Tuesday. Well, kids, for those of you not in actual attendance at the event, this is an opportunity to play Gramma and Granpa and listen to the game on the ol' ray-dee-oh by tuning in to Steve Kolbe’s call on the 3WT network: 1500 AM, 820 AM and 107.7 FM.

Now kids, the verb, to tune involves some hand-ear coordination, if you are getting into the playing Gramma and Granpa thing and listening to it on the old table top console (or even if you're in your car). There are generally two knobs on a radio (what's a "knob," Uncle Peerless?...Gary Bettman, but that's another story) -- one for volume, which is generally on the left, and one on the right.

If you turn the knob on the right to the left, you go "down the dial." That means you go down the numbers that indicate the "frequency" on which the radio station broadcasts. We won't bore you with the technical details of that. If you turn the knob to the right, you go "up the dial." OK, so...oh, we forgot...we assumed you knew how to turn the radio on. That would be by using the knob on the left, which you have to turn to the right to click "on," then turn further to the right to achieve the desired volume.

OK, back to "tuning." You have to turn the knob to the right until the "dial" -- the big circular thing in the face of the radio -- indicates you are at "1500" or "820" (we're leaving the FM number out of this, since Gramma and Granpa didn't listen to that new fangled "FM" in their day).

At this point, you should be hearing the dulcet tones of Steve Kolbe "calling" the game -- that's a radio term for "announcing." And, in order to help you visualize the game Mr. Kolbe is calling, we provide you with these images you may use as mental depictions of what is happening on the ice...

Alex Ovechkin rushing down the left side into the Predator zone...







A faceless Predator (no, really...look for yourself) about to feel the wrath of Matt Bradley





Captain Chris Clark taking the ice on Nicklas Backstrom's right wing










Predator goalie Dan Ellis leaving the short side open for an Ovechkin drive





Brent Johnson coming up large in goal

John Erskine blocking a shot








See? Not having TV won't be so bad. With a radio, a little imagination, and copious amounts of adult beverages (root beer for you folks under 21), you can make this an experience you'll tell your own grandchildren about.

No hockey today...

The first time the NHL has been dark for a non-all star break or holiday date since November 21, 2001.