Putting the Offense in Defense

(photo: Washington Post)

The Washington Capitals are the top-scoring team in the league heading into tonight’s play, averaging 3.56 goals-per-game, a pace (292 goals) that would put them 30-goals ahead of the second-place San Jose Sharks (262) by season’s end.

But there is a significant (we hesitate to say “important,” give that the Caps have the second highest standings point total in the league) difference between the Caps and the Sharks and, by extension, the Caps and the rest of the league.

The difference is that whereas the Sharks get considerable contributions on offense from their defense, the Caps do not, especially once you get past Mike Green. Here are the NHL clubs’ defense corps (all who have dressed as defensemen) and their total points for the year, ranked by points:

Those Sharks are up there in the points rankings (notably, so are the Penguins and Blackhawks – two other teams the Caps might face down the road), but there the Caps sit in 14th place in scoring by defensemen. It doesn’t really get better looking at goal contributions. The Caps rank in the bottom third in the league in goals scored by defensemen, and considering that Mike Green has half of those, it points to a lack of contribution by the blue line…



It does get better for the Caps in terms of helpers, though. But even here, while the Caps are ranked tied for ninth in assists by defensemen, it seems a low product for the highest overall scoring team in the NHL (and there are those Sharks, Penguins, and Blackhawks near the top of that list again)…



You could reason all this away if you could demonstrate that the Caps’ defensemen get a lot of shots on net that others can pounce on for rebound scores. But here, too, the Caps rank in the middle of the pack. The odd thing, though is that a team like Pittsburgh has a comparable number of shots, but has more points contributions from its defense…



Finally, if you drill into the individual numbers to see how balanced – or imbalanced – defenseman scoring might be, you see an expected result. Mike Green accounts for a larger share of points by defensemen for his team than the high scorer among blueliners for any other club…



Yes, Mike Green is the highest scoring defenseman in the league, but the other side of that coin is that Green is the only Capital defenseman in double digits in points. When the Caps take the ice tonight in Vancouver, the second leading scorer among defensemen will be Jeff Schultz (1-6-7 in 27 games).

Have injuries contributed to that result? Yes; the Caps have dressed ten defensemen this year (not including the odd turn Brooks Laich might have taken on the blue line), and Green is the only Caps defenseman to have played in at least 30 games. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has dressed 12 defensemen this year, and only two of them have played in at least 30 games.

On a team as talented and productive at the offensive end as the Capitals, this could be fairly seen as nit-picking, but the margins between winning and losing in the regular season are much larger than in the playoffs, when the slightest differences can be exploited. On a team where the defense – save for one outsized talent – doesn’t make much of an offensive contribution, and on a team that relies on offense to boot, will the Caps be an easier team to defend for the more talented teams they will face in the playoffs?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Canucks, December 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, the Caps are about as far away as one can get from Washington and still be in the National Hockey League, as the team representing the District of Columbia travels 2,358 miles (that would be 3,795 kilometres for those north of the border) to Vancouver, British Columbia. The Caps haven’t been to Vancouver in a while, and…

“This... is... "Jeopardy!"

It is?

“And now, here is the host of "Jeopardy!"... Alex Trebek!”

What the…

“I’m Canadian, you know… now, let’s take a look at our categories… ‘It’s Columbia…”

And?

“Well, that’s it. Ratings are down, and we’re cutting back on categories.”

OK… so, I’ll take “It’s Columbia” for one-hundred, Alex.

“The answer…’I’m a record company.”

Isn’t there a bell or a buzzer?

“Like I said, we’re cutting back… you’re the only contestant.”

OK, so… “what is, ‘Columbia?’”

“That is correct…it’s your board, Peerless.”

I’ll take “It’s Columbia” for two-hundred, Alex.

“I’m a mountain in Alberta.”

Ding?

“Peerless…”

I’m “Columbia?”

“Your answer must be in the form of a question…”

What is, “I’m Columbia?”

“Correct!... still your board, Peerless…”

-sigh- I’ll take “I’m Columbia” for three-hundred, Alex…

“I’m a ‘Pike,’ but not a fish”

Ding…

“Peerless…”

What is, “I’m Columbia?” (that's a road in Arlington, VA, thing for those out of town readers)

“Correct again. You’re on quite a roll, Peerless… please select…”

“I’m Columbia” for four-hundred…”

“I’m the oldest Spanish restaurant in the United States.”

What is, “I’m Columbia?”

“Correct!... one more left on the board…”

“I’m Columbia” for five-hundred, Alex…

“I’m an Ivy League university located in New York City…”

Ding!

“Peerless…”

What is, “I’m Columbia”, Alex…”

“Right again, and that completes the board. Would you like to try for double-jeopardy?"

ACK!!!...NO!!!

The Caps put their best-in-the-league record in jeopardy tonight against the Canucks at General Motors Place. After starting the year muddling along in their first 20 games with a 10-10-0 record, the Canucks are 9-5-0 in their last 14. If there is one thing that reflects their reversal of fortune, it is their rediscovery of more consistent defense and goaltending. In those first 20 games they had a respectable goals against average of 2.75, but they also allowed at least five goals six times. In 14 games since, Vancouver has a goals against average of 2.36 and allowed as many as five goals in a game only once. The overall numbers going into last night’s games look like this…



As if it needs repeating, the Canucks employ the Brothers Sedin – Henrik and Daniel – who are very much twins…

- Daniel missed 18 games with a broken foot earlier in the season, but in the 16 games in which he has played, he is 7-13-20 (1.25 points/game). Brother Henrik has played in all 34 games for Vancouver and is 15-28-43 (1.26 points/game).

- In their last ten games, Daniel is 7-8-15, and he has points in nine of those ten (eight in a row); Henrik is 1-16-17, and he has points in nine of those ten (eight in a row)

- Over their careers, Daniel is averaging 0.73 points/game (658 games), while Henrik is averaging 0.74 points/game (680 games). Their respective records against the Caps aren’t quite as mirror-imagey… Daniel is 2-0-2 in eight career games, while Henrik is 0-4-4 in eight career games.

Vancouver is one of those rare teams whose leading scorer has more points than the Caps’ leading scorer (H. Sedin has 43 points to Nicklas Backstrom’s 39), but Vancouver has five other players with at least 20 points. In addition to D. Sedin’s 20 points, the Canucks include Ryan Kesler, Alexandre Burrows (huh… an “Alexandre” who can score at the NHL level; whodathunkit?), Mason Raymond, and Mikael Samuelsson in the 20-point club. These might not be household names to Caps fans, which is undersrtandable, given that they play out west, face the Caps infrequently, and combined they are 0-3-3 in 20 career man-games against the Caps.

What Vancouver does get that the Caps do not is some balanced offensive input from the blue line. Mike Green might be 6-26-32 for the Caps, but Alexander Edler (2-17-19), Christian Ehrhoff (7-11-18), and Kevin Bieksa (1-14-15) provide some punch. By way of comparison, with Brian Pothier out for the Caps, Jeff Schultz is the second leading point-getter from the blue line (1-6-7).

In goal, the Caps get to face an old nemesis – Roberto Luongo. The big netminder missed six games with fractured ribs earlier in the year (certainly contributing to that funky goals-allowed trend early for the Canucks), but he still has a 2.41 GAA and a .917 save percentage to go with his 15-11-0 record in 27 games. Since his return on November 10th, luongo is 9-5-0 in 15 appearances with a 2.13 GAA and a .928 save percentage. He has allowed more than three goals only once in those last 15 appearances. Worse, he is 15-10-3, 2.26, .930, with two shutouts against the Caps in his career. Since the lockout, he is 9-1-0 against the Caps, but seven of those wins came in the 2005-2006 season when he was with Florida.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder…

Vancouver: Ryan Kesler

Kesler is known as something of a defensive specialist for the Canucks – he was a Selke Trophy finalist last season. But he also has some pop, as witnessed by his 26 goals and 59 points last year. Since November 1st he is 4-14-18 in 20 games. In four career games against the Caps, though, he has only an assist and is a minus-1.

Washington: Brendan Morrison

Morrison spent seven-plus seasons in Vancouver, recording 136 goals and 393 points along the way. Since then, he has a goal in two games against his former team. He broke a four-game pointless streak with an assist in the Caps’ 6-1 win at Colorado on Tuesday, but he hasn’t had a goal since December 3rd. The six-game streak without a goal ties his season high.

Keys…

1. Similar doesn’t mean “same.” These clubs are similar in many ways. They are highly ranked offensive teams, they are similarly middle-of-the-pack in goals allowed, they are similarly tough at 5-on-5, both struggle on the penalty kill. But in just about all respects, the similarities give way to the Caps being statistically superior. If both teams play their game, the Caps are better.

2. Don’t let “Luongo” end with a “O”…make it a “luong” night for him. By current NHL standards, Roberto Luongo doesn’t face a ton of shots – 29.0 per 60 minutes of play. Compared to some of the loads he was bearing in Florida, that workload is like a night off. But oddly enough, since he returned from injury, he is 5-1 in games where he faces more than 30 shots. The Caps average 32.1 a game. It might not be a case of ramping up the volume on Luongo as much as it is from where they get their opportunities. Watch to see how well the Caps crowd him and make him work to find shooters.

3. Nicky Time. Nicklas Backstrom has no points against the Canucks in two career games – a small sample. But he’s coming into this game with a pair of points in each of his last three games. He is 7-9-16 in his last nine games, and he hasn’t had a “minus” game in more than a month (November 17th, minus-1 against the Rangers).

In the end, it’s going to come down to the same thing it has in a lot of games on this side of the continent – can the Caps solve Luongo? In just about every other respect, the Caps are the better team, but Luongo has had uncommon success against the club. Nevertheless, we’ll take “Caps for the win,” Alex…

Caps 4 – Canucks 3

Caps Dashboard

We thought we'd take a look at the top eight teams in the East and look where the Caps stand relative to those teams in a number of general categories.

First, record (ranked by standings):

If the playoffs started today, which of course they do not, the Caps would get the Panthers in the first round. The Caps are 3-0 against Florida to date, outscoring the Panthers 17-7.

Next, scoring (ranked by goal differential):


That one-versus-eight matchup between the Caps and Panthers looks even more grim for Florida, given that the difference between the Caps' goal differential and the Panthers' is a staggering 1.27 goals/game.

Special teams (ranked by the Peerless' "Ecstasy Index" -- power play plus penalty killing percentages):


The surprise here is that Atlanta ranks so high on combined special teams play, that being a function of a surprisingly good penalty killing unit. One might also act surprised at the Penguins' low power play mark, but this has been a problem going back to last year. For the Caps, that penalty killing number needs to get over the NHL's "Mendoza Line" of 80 percent at some point.

Leading/trailing (ranked by winning percentage when scoring first):


The Caps are the only team here that actually has a better winning percentage when giving up the first goal, but that is a product of the Caps scoring first so often (25 times in 33 games, more than any of the other seven teams). Other things to note -- with Atlanta and Boston, you can make money on who wins and loses just on whether they score first or not. Score first, they win. Give up the first goal, they lose. On the other hand, if New Jersey takes a lead into an intermission, they win.

And finally, the "grind" numbers:


The grind stats are sorted by turnover differential as a rough gauge of how well the teams keep the puck. The giveaway and takeaway numbers are in the eyes of the beholder (or the official scorer), but that 351 number of Sabre giveaways (third most in the league), especially juxtaposed with the relatively low takeaway margin, should be cause for concern. It's also worth noting that five of the eight teams are below .500 on draws. And as far as hits go, no one hits like Pittsburgh (at least on the score sheet). They lead the league by a wide margin (Carolina is second, 45 hits behind the Penguins). You might not have expected this from a team with such top-end skill as Pittsburgh, but the number (subject to interpretation or not) is an indicator of a club that recognized the need to pay a physical price to supplement their skill in order to win a championship.

"He gets into his fight and then he sits at the end of the bench"

That was the observation of Capitals Coach Bruce Boudreau on the matter of David Koci last evening after the latter ended Mike Green's evening last night with a hit from behind that left Green with a mangled face and cloudy memory. He was describing what he felt was the typical night for Koci as an NHL player. Coach Boudreau hit it on the nose. Why, just within the last eight games for the Avalanche...

November 28th -- First shift of the game, gets into a scrap with Minnesota's John Scott (2:23 into the game). Koci would skate four more shifts (none in the third period) and finish with 4:04 in ice time.

December 5th -- Third shift of the game, gets into a bout with Columbus' Mike Commodore (11:28 into the first period). Koci would not skate another shift, finished with 1:12 of ice time for the evening.

December 13th -- First shift of the game, gets into a fight with Brian McGrattan of the Flames (1:52 into the game). It would be the only shift Koci would get, and he would finish with two seconds of ice time. I will repeat that... he finished with two seconds of ice time. Did he even take a shower afterward?

December 15th -- A marathon by Koci's standards, he made it into the second period. There, he boarded Mike Green (ending the defenseman's evening), upon which he was confronted by John Erskine (15:28 into the period). With majors for boarding and fighting, plus a game misconduct, Koci's evening was complete with eight shifts taken and 4:52 in ice time.

Four games, four fights, a major for boarding, a game misconduct.

Four games, 17 shifts, 10:10 in total ice time, and the Avalanche split the four decisions (one of the losses coming in a shootout).

After the game, Coach Boudreau asked rhetorically, "[he] gets into his fight and then he sits at the end of the bench, so what good is he?"

Draw your own conclusions.

A TWO-point night: Caps 6 - Avalanche 1

Dr. Jekyll, meet Mr. Hyde.

The same team that wore white sweaters and stunk up Air Canada Centre last Saturday in a 6-3 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs pulled on their white sweaters again last night and disposed of the Colorado Avalanche in a 6-1 win at Pepsi Center in Denver.

That the Caps did it in the face of considerable adversity only enhances the head-scratching over how this team can be so blech on one night and so sublime the next. The adversity was delivered in the form of David Koci, a journeyman enforcer who cheap-shotted his way onto the score sheet (in only 4:52 of ice time) by running Shaone Morrisonn and Mike Green into an early end to their respective evenings.

The injury to Morrisonn hasn’t been disclosed, but Green was fed more than his minimum daily requirement of plexiglas when Koci took aim at him from behind, smashing him head first into the end glass. He left the ice bleeding from the left side of his face and did not return. Bruce Boudreau was not shy in the post game offering an opinion on Koci’s handiwork…

"Please, the guy has one goal in six years. He couldn't play in the American League. I've faced David Koci a lot. He might be a nice guy -- I have no idea. I'm glad he's making a living. Let's be honest; if this was any [other] game he gets on the ice in the first three minutes, gets into his fight and then he sits at the end of the bench, so what good is he? I mean, [for] 15 feet he saw Green's No. 52 and it didn't stop him one iota from hitting him in the back and going for his head. I hope they throw the book at him. It was a bush-league hit."

Boudreau will not be testifying as a character witness for Koci when the league looks into the matter, although the league will be looking at the tape, no doubt, and seeing Koci in a menacing pose just before the hit...


Combined, the two defensemen logged barely 20 minutes of ice time for the night, about half their usual amount, meaning that the Caps played with four defensemen for the last half of the game and Brooks Laich taking turns on the blue line.

Still, Colorado would manage only 28 shots and one goal, a tribute to all 16 remaining skaters contributing to the effort. How?...

- 15 skaters finished on the plus-side of the ledger, nine of them a plus-2 or better.

- 12 skaters registered points, five of them with multi-point efforts.

- Karl Alzner had four blocked shots (leading all skaters for both teams).

- Kyle Wilson (of the Hershey Wilson’s) had two assists and tied for the team lead in shot attempts (six).

- Nicklas Bakcstrom led the team with three takeaways.

- Matt Bradley averages 1:33 in shorthanded ice time per game; he had 1:36 in the third period last night. And he doesn’t even win the prize among forwards packing an average night into a period. Nicklas Backstrom had 1:49 of SH ice time in the third period (averages 1:05/game), and Brooks Laich had a whopping 2:36 of shorthanded ice time in the third period (he averages 2:19/game), although a lot of it was earned skating backwards.

- Chris Clark had two assists. That’s his first multi-point game since October 26, 2007.

- John Erskine was plus-3 (the second time in seven games he’s hit that mark; he is plus-11 for the year) and took his pound of flesh from Koci after the latter ran Mike Green into the end boards. Add to that an assist and a blocked shot, and…well, it might not rise to the level of a “Gordie Howe Hat Trick,” but it’s something to note.

- OK, if someone came up to you and said that Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin had only four combined shot attempts in the game (three combined shots on goal), would you then believe that person if they said the Caps scored six goals?

- The Caps were credited with one – one – giveaway.

- Was it efficient shot-taking or bad goaltending? The Caps registered those six goals on only 41 total shot attempts. Their first five goals came on their first 30 shot attempts (including misses and blocks).

- Alex Ovechkin averaged 1:26 per shift in the second period (1:12/shift for the game). OK, he’s an amazing physical specimen, but isn’t that a bit much? He was dialed down in the third, though, only getting five shifts.

- Matt Bradley was the other Cap with six shot attempts. A goal, an assists, plus-2, a hit, and a takeaway, all in only 14:28. A very full evening.

- Mike Knuble had his first goal in more than a six weeks (October 29th), making Kanoobie very happy…



This might not have been the Caps’ best game of the year, but it might have been their most complete game. Colorado had won four of five coming into this game, and their only loss was a 1-0 decision against Minnesota. The Caps scored early (1:56 into the game) and often (five goals in the first 33:22), and Jose Theodore stopped everything he saw until the game had long been decided.

It was an extremely efficient gutting of the Avalanche and an example of what this team is capable of when they are engaged. Their timing is pretty good, since now they get to apply these lessons to an old nemesis on Friday when the team heads to Vancouver to face the Canucks and Roberto Luongo.

But in the meantime, great job.

A Word From Coach Rockne

Well, boys, I haven't a thing to say.

Posted a great topic -- all of you. Great topic.

I guess we just can't expect to win ‘em all.

I'm going to tell you something I've kept to myself for years. None of you ever knew The Peerless Prognosticator. It was long before your time. But you all know what a tradition he is in the Capitals Blogosphere.

And the last thing he said to me, "Rock," he said, "sometime, when the team is up against it, and the breaks are beating the boys, tell 'em to go out there with all they got and post just one for The Progger."

"I don't know where I'll be then, Rock", he said, "but I'll know about it; and I'll be happy."

Alright.

Now, go out and VOTE!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Avalanche, December 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Mountain Time for the Caps tonight as the Capitals visit the Colorado Avalanche in Denver on the second stop of a four-city road trip.

“Just where is it I could find bear, beaver, and other critters worth cash money when skinned?”

Excuse me?

“bear, beaver, critters?”

Oh, I get it… Jeremiah Johnson. Ride due west as the sun sets. Turn left at the Rocky Mountains.

“Aren’t these the Rocky Mountains?”

Well, yeah.

“So?”

So what?

“So where are the bear, beaver, and the other critters?"

Well, the bear are in Boston, but they call them Bruins out there.

“Beavers?”

Hmmm… don’t know. But we did see something that looked like beaver.

“I’d be much obliged if you pointed it out…”

“Stranger… that’s enough to make me want to give up trappin’ and huntin’."






The Caps don’t get out in this part of the country much to do any trappin’, huntin’ or hockey playin’. So, what Caps fans might not be aware of, the Avs are having a very nice season so far, record-wise, although their numbers seem to be a little more ordinary...

It's been a while since the Caps were in these parts. In fact, the last time the Capitals visited Denver, their lineup included Rico Fata, Ben Clymer, Kris Beech, and Jakub Klepis. Oddly enough, perhaps, the Caps won that October 25, 2006, contest by a 5-3 score. And the last time before that was Bruce Cassidy’s last game as head coach for the Caps, a 4-1 loss to the Avalanche on December 8, 2003. No player who dressed on that night is still with the club.

Three players on the current Colorado squad skated in that 2003 game, and they remain important cogs in the Avalanche machine.

Milan Hejduk is questionable for this game (knee injury), and his absence would be felt by the Avs in that he is Colorado’s second-leading goal scorer (12). Hejduk missed three games to the injury at the end of November, but returned to play in five games. The injury appears to have hampered him, though – he had only a goal in those five games, and he missed Sunday’s 3-2 win over Calgary. Of concern to the Caps if he plays, though, is that he a dangerous player at home. Hejduk is almost a point-a-game player at Pepsi Center (4-6-10 in 11 games so far this year). He is 3-5-8 in 11 career games against the Caps, but he comes into this game listed as day-to-day.

John-Michael Liles was a rookie in that December 2003 game against the Caps. Now in his sixth year with the Avs, if his statistical profile resembles anyone (not to mention his physical dimensions), it might be Brian Rafalski of the Red Wings – a defenseman who can pot 10-15 goals, get 40-50 points, and somehow succeed in spite of a somewhat smallish stature. Liles has had to deal with his own injury issues this year, missing a dozen games in two separate stints as a result of a shoulder injury. After having returned from his latest absence, Liles put up four points in three games, but he is in something of a drought coming into this game. In his last nine games he is 0-2-2 (he hasn’t had a goal since October 13th), although he is a plus-3. He has yet to tally a point in three career games against Washington.

Adam Foote is the old man of the mountain, quite literally. At 38 he is the eldest statesman on the Avalanche roster, having played almost 900 games (of 1,070 total) in a Colorado (or Quebec Nordiques) uniform. He is old enough to have played with John Tonelli (of the Stanley Cup winning Islanders teams) when Tonelli was wrapping up his career in the 1991-1992 season. Foote is not going to put up much in the way of points (although he has been over the 30-point mark twice in his career). What he will do is provide 20 solid minutes in his own end. Foote missed five games in late November with a jaw injury. Of some concern to the Caps, there is no team in the Eastern Conference against which he has more points in his career than Foote does against Washington (2-7-9 in 25 games). He had his only multi-point game of last season (1-1-2) in a 4-1 Colorado win.

Goaltending is something of an odd thing with the Avalanche. First, the two incumbents – Craig Anderson and Peter Budaj – might impress most followers as being better suited to back-up roles than as true number one goalies. But both have had very good starts to the year. The difference is in results. Anderson has received most of the work so far, appearing in 29 of Colorado’s 35 games thus far. He has a goals-against average of 2.57 and a save percentage of .920. These numbers are similar to those of Budaj, who has a GAA of 2.37 and a save percentage of .920. The difference is that Anderson is 16-7-5, while Budaj is only 3-3-1. Anderson, who is known for his sharp eye on the ice, would appear likely to get the start. He is 2-3-0, 2.62, .912 in five career games against the Capitals. He won both of his appearances against Washington last year.



The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Ryan O’Reilly

Matt Duchene is the more celebrated rookie on the Avalanche roster, having been selected third overall in last June’s draft. But O’Reilly might have the better overall numbers. He is 4-13-17 for the season (Duchene is 9-10-19, but gets much more power play time – 3:10/game compared to 0:59 for O’Reilly) and is a plus-12 (Duchene is minus-7). He is second among Avalanche forwards in penalty killing time per game (2:53, compared to Duchene’s 0:27). He has been in a drought lately, though. He hasn’t registered a point in any of his last 11 games and hasn’t notched a goal in any of his last 18 games dating back to November 6th, when he had two against the Blackhawks.

Washington: Jose Theodore

Theodore is very familiar with the territory, having played two-plus seasons for the Avalanche. But he has never faced Colorado as an opponent. He is 25-16-2, 2.66, .905, and two shutouts on Pepsi Center ice. Theodore has not been consistent lately. In his last ten games he is 5-2-2, 3.49, .882, and was yanked less than seven minutes into a Veterans Day contest against the Islanders that the Caps won, 5-4, in a Gimmick (he did not get the decision). Here is the odd thing about Theodore’s season so far; his wins come in pairs. After winning on opening night against Boston, he won in consecutive appearances on October 24th and 27th, won in consecutive appearances on November 6th and 7th, and won against on consecutive appearances on November 30th and December 5th. After losing to the Sabres on December 9th, he won in his last appearance on December 11th against Carolina. If the pattern holds, Theodore gets the win.

Keys…

1. In and out. Not the burger joint, this pertains to shifts. This game being played in Denver, altitude might be a factor here. It’s worth noting that no Colorado player averages as much as 50 seconds a shift (Kyle Quincey averages 49 seconds, 103rd in average shift time in the league). Eight Caps average at least 50 seconds a shift. If the Caps have those long shifts, will they have legs in the third period?

2. Draw, podner. Colorado is 29th in faceoffs in the league, the Caps are sixth. No Avalanche player who has taken at least 100 draws is winning the majority of the draws he takes (T.J. Galiardi has won 48.9 percent of 186 draws taken). The Caps have two players over 50 percent – David Steckel and Brendan Morrison – and Steckel is second in the league (62.2 percent). Whether the Caps can convert that advantage into set plays on the power play might bear watching.

3. More Mo’. Brendan Morrison has scored more career points against the Avalanche than any NHL team, except Calgary. He is 15-22-37 in 48 career games against Colorado. He’s stumbled a bit of late, going his last four games without a point. Concurrently, his ice time has been lower – in all of them he was under 20 minutes, and in three of them he was under 16 minutes (he’s averaging 17:10 so far this year).

The Caps have played only five games against teams of the Western Conference this year (of 33 total). Their 3-1-1 record so far is not unusual given their recent history. Coming into this year, the Caps were above .500 (in terms of standings points won) in three of four years since the lockout (they were 8-10-0 last year). Going west is not the problem it might have been earlier in Caps history. And that is why…

Caps 4 – Avalanche 2

No worries?

"I don't think [the Caps are] worried about, at any point in the game, about defending -- they're thinking about scoring the next goal."

-- Ron Wilson, Toronto Maple Leafs Coach

That observation came after last night's 6-3 Leafs win over the Caps. It betrays an inconvenient truth. If the Caps don't score -- a lot -- they don't win, at least not with any regularity.

The Caps have seven losses in regulation this year. In all of them they scored three or fewer goals. They have shown a lack of ability to prevail in close, low-scoring games. Their overall record in games in which they score three goals or fewer is 6-7-4.

Having to outscore their own defense is not a long-term strategy for success.

A NO-point night: Maple Leafs 6 - Capitals 3

“He’s not playing the Albany River Rats.”

That was the observation of Alan May in the Caps’ post-game show on Comcast Sports Net after the Caps laid an egg on Hockey Night in Canada, dropping a 6-3 decision to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The comment was directed at Caps goaltender Michal Neuvirth, but it could have applied to the Caps, who coughed up a 2-0 lead to allow the Leafs to outscore them 6-1 in the game’s final 40 minutes.

One might be tempted to look at the production of the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alexander Semin (3-3-6) and say that they could be absolved of any blame in this, but Backstrom and Ovechkin were on the ice for the game-winning fourth and insurance fifth goals in the Leafs’ comeback. Ovechkin could be fairly singled out for not getting back on Lee Stempniak on his shorthanded goal with just under ten minutes left that more or less sealed the deal for Toronto.

But it certainly was a team meltdown. Of the 18 skaters, 15 were on the ice for at least one Leafs goal (Eric Fehr, Chris Clark, and Mathieu Perreault having been spared the grief). You could lean on the crutch of travel problems and the second game of a back-to-back as the cause of the result, but the fact is that the Caps had a 2-0 lead after one period against a weaker opponent and didn’t close the deal.

Other stuff…

- The Caps came into this game 35-3-5 in games that Alex Ovechkin had at least three points. Make that 35-4-5.

- In all the noise, the game probably comes down to two plays involving the same two players. The first came with the clock ticking toward the 12:00 remaining mark in the first period and the Caps holding the 2-0 lead. Nicklas Backstrom sent a 125-foot pass onto the tape of Alexander Semin breaking in alone on Vesa Toskala. Semin ripped a forehand shot that Toskala speared with his glove to maintain the two-goal margin. If the Caps score there, the game might very well have been over. The other would come later when Semin was sent in again alone on a breakaway. Toskala this time snuffed a backhand attempt that could have brought the Caps back into the game.

- Nicklas Backstrom is one of the most gifted offensive talents in the game, but he really has to improve on his faceoffs. That came into stark relief tonight when Matt Stajan beat Backstrom on a draw in the Capitals’ end, then he collected a loose puck behind Backstrom and flipped it over Neuvirth’s right shoulder for the game-winning goal. He’s been over 50 percent on draws in only 11 of 33 games this year and is at 46.3 percent overall.

- Only three points (all assists) came from the 15 skaters not on the top line, and they were a combined minus-11. Are they still in baggage pick-up at the airport?

- Matt Stajan wins the all-you-can-eat-for-free coupon from the score sheet buffet… two goals, an assist, plus-2, five shots, a shot blocked, a shot missed, a hit, two giveaways, a takeaway, three blocked shots, and he won 8 of 19 draws.

- That’s a six game points streak for Niklas Hagman (2-5-7, plus-6).

- Toskala, even after getting yanked in the first meeting of these teams this year, is 2-0-0, 2.89, .909 in three appearances. Against the rest of the league, he is 2-5-2, 3.88, .868.

- For as well as the top line played, Alex Ovechkin did not have a shot on goal in the last 19:31, Nicklas Backstrom had one in the last 28:59.

- Two takeaways? Two?? We’re not sure if that was a case of the Caps not moving their feet on defense or the official scorer having a pillar blocking his view of the Caps’ end of the ice.

- That was only the third time all year (in 15 games) in which the Maple Leafs tallied more than one power play goal at home. They were the first power play goals the Leafs scored against the Caps this year.

- Conversely, it was the sixth straight game in which the Leafs allowed at least one power play goal. But in getting only three man advantages, the Caps could not take advantage of that weakness as much as they could have.

- One of the things that sets veteran goalies apart from youngsters is the ability to focus and deal with adversity. Michal Neuvirth allowed one goal on the first ten shots he faced, one on his next ten, two on the next ten… and two on the last six he faced. That’s not a trend you like to see.

As Bruce Boudreau put it after the game, “we played pretty badly,” referring to the last half of the game. Now the Caps head out west to Colorado, Vancouver, and Edmonton. The last time the Caps made this trip was in late October 2006. They beat Colorado (5-3), lost to Vancouver in a shootout (3-2), then were blanked in Edmonton (4-0). The Caps are 4-4-1 against these three teams overall over the last three years. We would expect more of this team, but Corey Masisak over at the Washington Times has a disturbing set of numbers to question our expectations…

“The Caps have lost more games than they've won against teams that don't reside in the Southeast Division...the Caps are 8-0-0 against the Southeast and now 12-13 (12-7-6 by official standards, but remind which of those six OT/shootout losses did the Caps feel good about and take momentum from?) against the rest of the league. How can a team be the best team in the league if it is 12-13 against the 5/6 of the league that doesn't reside in the division that has been notoriously suspect in recent years?”

Actually, his entry is one long litany of “beware, this team might not be nearly as good as we think it is.” It – not to mention the pasting the Caps endured tonight – is a caution against getting too far ahead of ourselves.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs, December 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

On the road again… the Caps home stand was brief – one game – and now it’s back on the road to start a four game swing. Tonight, the Caps make another appearance on Hockey Night in Canada (part of a four-times-in-five-weeks stretch), visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. In doing so, the Caps will take the best record in the NHL into the game, having reached the 20-win mark faster (32 games) than they have in any season since 1991-1992 (28 games).

On this chilly weekend, we thought we’d dip into the mailbag to take the pulse of Capitals Nation. Let’s take a look…

Dear Peerless,

How can the Caps possibly win the Stanley Cup this year? Their best players aren’t as good as the Blackhawks’ best players, Mike Green can’t play defense, Alex Ovechkin is a dirty player who is starting to break down, the coach wants to club Alexander Semin over the head sometimes… don’t they just, well, suck?

Signed,
The World of Hockey

Dear TWOH,


Gee… now that I think of it. You’re an idiot.

*****

Dear Peerless,

I’ve got a problem. For years I’ve been keeping from my wife and my fans a secret, and now I’m afraid it’s going to come out. I just don’t know how they’ll handle it, and I can’t decide whether to tell them or to try to keep this secret to myself. Peerless, should I tell my wife and my fans that all these years I’ve been – how can I say this – a “Penguins fan?”

Signed,
Eldrick

Dear Eldrick,


You might want to go off somewhere, maybe say, Sweden, and think this one over.

*****

Dear Peerless,

What’s the difference between Jim Kelley and a horse’s ass?

Signed,
Ovie

Dear Ovie,

Not a damned thing.



The Caps and the Leafs have met twice this year, splitting two decisions. The Caps won the first meeting in Washington’s home opener on October 3rd, 6-4. The Leafs won the rematch on ACC ice on November 21st in a Gimmick, 2-1.

Since that last meeting, Toronto has played ten games, going 6-3-1 in them. Their defense has been about as porous at it has been all year (they allowed 33 goals in those ten games). The overall numbers look like this…



But what the Leafs seem to have found lately is another gear to their attack (34 goals scored, three times scoring at least five in a game). Which brings us to…

Who’s Hot?

Niklas Hagman is 6-5-11 in the last ten games, virtually doubling his point total for the season (14-9-23 overall). It’s part of an 8-5-13 run he’s had over 13 games (points in ten of those games) that followed a five-game pointless streak. Perhaps oddly, given Hagman’s team leading number of goals in the last ten games, all of them have come at even strength – none on the power play (and we'll get to the power play later). Hagman is 3-3-6 in 24 career games against the Caps, including a goal in each game between the clubs this year.

Matt Stajan has found a goal-scoring touch in the last ten games as well, potting four (4-5-9), including the game winner against Tampa Bay on November 25th, to bring his season total to nine goals. Stajan has been looking for a breakout year since getting 14 goals as a rookie for the Leafs in 2003-2004. Perhaps this, finally, is his year. Of course, Caps fans said that every year about Dainius Zubrus, too. He hasn’t had much success against the Caps in his career. In 21 games he is 1-3-4.

Alexei Ponikarovsky, who has been something of a nuisance to the Caps in his career, also has nine points in the last ten games (3-6-9), but he’s gotten his in bunches. He has three multi-point games in this ten game stretch, accounting for all his points – a four point night (1-3-4) against Florida on November 27th, a two assist night against Columbus three games later, and a three-point night (2-1-3) against Atlanta last Monday. He is 8-4-12 in 20 career games against the Caps.

Who’s Not?

Vesa Toskala. The "vesa" (get it?..."vesa?"..."vessel?"... oh, forget it) into which Leafs Nation seems to have emptied its bile this year hasn’t had a particiularly efficent ten-game stretch, although he is over .500. He has five appearances in that span, going 2-1-0, 3.60, .877. In his two no-decisions, he was pulled once after allowing three goals on 15 shots in a 4-3 loss to the Islanders, and he got mop-up duty in relief of Joey MacDonald, allowing three goals on ten shots in a 7-2 loss to Boston. This year, he got a no-decision in the first meeting between the Caps and Leafs, allowing three goals on eight shots before getting pulled at the first intermission. In the rematch he was much better – 31 saves on 32 shots in the 2-1 Gimmick win. He is 3-4-0 against the Caps in eight games over his career.

Keys…

1. Isn’t that special? Even in this ten game streak where the Leafs are 6-3-1, their special teams have been ghastly. The power play is 3-for-36 (8.3 percent), and the penalty killers are 20-for-32 (62.5 percent). At even strength the Leafs goals for/against ratio (1.48) is comparable to the Caps 5-on-5 ratio for the season (1.40). If the Caps can turn this into a special teams game, the Leafs could be in for a long night. Keep that in mind, and remember that in the last four games the Caps have played in, no more than eight power plays combined were skated in any of them.

2. Holster that weapon. The Leafs are second in the league in shots on goal. That is, in part, a result of their outshooting opponents 353-298 in the last ten games, including getting a whopping 61 shots on goal in a 4-3 overtime win over the Islanders on November 23rd. Only once in the last ten games have the Leafs been outshot by an opponent. They outshot the Caps (39-32) in the 2-1 win on the eve of this ten-game run.

3. A + A = W. Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin are a combined 22-13-35 in 27 career man-games against the Maple Leafs. This year they are a combined 4-3-7 in the three man-games they have (Semin missing the second meeting). Big night, big audience. Expect these two to come to play.

Like that last meeting between the teams, the Caps will be visiting Toronto in the back-half of a back-to-back set of games. And after that one, Alex Ovechkin remarked, “I think they had more gas,” referring to the Leafs. Compounding the problem is the trouble the Caps had getting out of town after last night's game. They bus to the airport, get on the plane, taxi onto the runway, then head back to the gate when the aircraft has mechanical problems, the reason being this…



It isn’t a smooth weekend, and maybe that’s a good thing. The game could be the oasis of familiarity and routine the boys aren’t getting elsewhere this weekend. Yeah, that’s the ticket…

Caps 4 – Leafs 3

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Hurricanes 3 (OT)

So, your child blows off homework, plays games on his X-box. He looks as if he hasn’t a care in the world as his test is coming up in Algebra class. You ask him, “shouldn’t you be studying?” He says, “OK.” They day comes, he takes his test, and he comes home. You’re ready to light into him for not taking things seriously, not studying, not giving his best effort. “Look, Pop… I got an ‘A.’”

You just roll your eyes.

That was the Caps tonight, falling behind early, looking out of sync for long stretches of the first 30 minutes, then coming back from a two-goal deficit to pin a 4-3 overtime loss on the luckless Carolina Hurricanes.

It started badly for the Caps, getting scored on with the first shot of the game when Jiri Tlusty finished a two-on-one with only John Erskine back on defense. But wait… where was the other defenseman, you ask? Well, Mike Green was scraping himself off the pavement after he took a two fisted shove in the neck from Andrew Alberts as Green was skating into the offensive zone before the 2-on-1 went the other way…



Then the Caps found themselves down two goals when Jose Theodore left the slightest crack open on the short side, allowing Eric Staal to flip the puck against his mask, then having it roll off him into the net for the second goal. Three shots, two goals. It wasn’t looking good.

But as bad as the early results were, the Caps weren’t playing quite as badly as one might think. In fact, the Caps lived in the Carolina end of the ice in the first period. In the first 20 minutes the Caps outshot Carolina, 14-5 and out-attempted the Hurricanes 29-12. That Carolina was in the game, let alone leading, was testimony to Cam Ward having shaken off any after effects of his injury that kept him off the ice from November 7th until he returned to action last Wednesday.

Here is how bad things were for the Caps as the game was winding along. Sometimes, a coach will see his team lacking spark or momentum, and he’ll call his timeout to regroup. Well, tonight’s equivalent was the in-game programming staff dialing up the “Unleash the Fury” video with 9:05 to go in the second period and the Hurricanes still holding that 2-0 lead.

As it turns out, there’s magic in that video. Barely over a minute later, Alexander Semin scored on a wrister using defenseman Brett Carson as a screen to halve the lead. Then, with time winding down in the period, Semin broke behind the defense, and with Tim Gleason in furious pursuit (more on him to come), Semin shielded the puck with his body. However, he lost it as he was approaching the crease. Unfortunately for Cam Ward, he got caught in a no-man’s land between diving to poke the puck away and sitting back to smother it. He chose the former, merely bunting the biscuit a couple of feet in front of him. It was enough of a rebound and enough room for Semin to collect the puck and fire it into the back of the net with authority as Ward was sprawled on the ice with six-tenths of a second left in the period.

The teams traded goals in the third, Tomas Fleischmann pouncing on a loose puck early in the frame with the Hurricanes skating a man short on a delayed penalty. What made the play, though, was Mathieu Perreault skating the puck down the half wall into the left wing corner, then whipping it across to Fleischmann, who was waiting free at the inside edge of the right wing circle.

Carolina got it back, though, and Mike Green really was the culprit this time. Green tried to curl the puck around the top of the left wing circle, then sent a pass cross-ice where it was pilfered by Tim Gleason (him again… and yes, we’ll mention him again in a bit). Gleason sprinted through the neutral zone, and as he crossed the Caps’ blue line, he wound up and fired a slap shot that beat Theodore to tie the game.

But Green would have the last laugh – in overtime. The Caps put pressure on Carolina with Alex Ovechkin getting a couple of good looks. Nicklas Backstrom picked up a missed shot by Ovechkin in the corner and fired it back to where Ovechkin was posted -- at the right wing faceoff dot where three Hurricane players collapsed on him...


But the puck came through to Mike Green coming down the middle, and all that was left was to snap the puck past Ward for the game winner…


Other stuff…

- Oh, yeah… Tim Gleason. In an odd twist of irony, the guy who collided with Alex Ovechkin the last time these teams met in a knee-on-knee incident that got Ovechkin suspended ended up confronting Ovechkin once more. Ovechkin wound up and fired the puck toward the Carolina net late in the first period. Gleason got the blade of his stick on the puck in such a way as to deflect it up and into his lower jaw. He went off the ice immediately holding his jaw, and he would miss most of the next period. But after taking stitches and getting a full face-shield screwed onto his helmet, he returned to take one shift in the second period… that was him Alexander Semin was fending off just before he scored with less than a second left. But Gleason came back in the third to score his shorthanded goal. Say what you want, the guy is tough.

- There was Ovechkin at the all-you-can-eat score sheet buffet again… six shots on goal (15 attempts), one hit, three takeaways, a blocked shot, two assists, plus-3, and he split his two draws taken.

- Nicklas Backstrom had an understated game – a pair of assists, plus-3, winning 11 of 18 draws, a hit, and two blocked shots, one of them a sliding stop in overtime that came at a critical juncture.

- OK… Mike Green was not charged with a giveaway this evening. Uh, then who was it wearing his number that passed the puck across and had it intercepted by Tim Gleason, who converted it into a score?

- Alexander Semin… when he’s good, he’s very very good. And tonight, he showed stretches of being very very good. Of course, Carolina is his personal chew toy, too. His two goals give him 21 in 25 career games against the Hurricanes.

- One of our favorite players over the years, even as we were rooting against him, has been Rod Brind’Amour. Tonight, he skated for 6:28 and took only one shift in the third period (none in overtime). We can’t take any joy in that. Brind’Amour has been a warrior over the years.

- It didn’t seem so much that the Caps played badly, or that they were even taking Carolina lightly. They just looked terribly out of sync in those first 30 minutes.

- Hey, did we call Fleischmann a key? That was his first career goal against Carolina. Came at a nice time, too.

- Yeah, and we had the first period being key, too… getting two goals, in fact. We didn’t have Carolina getting them.

- Jose Theodore’s GAA and save percentage will take a bit of a hit, but Carolina really didn’t muster any significant pressure. Their goals were scored by: a) flattening a defenseman so that he wasn’t in the play going the other way, b) playing the post poorly on a wrap-around (that one’s on Theodore), and c) a giveaway in the offensive zone that led to a break the other way.

- When I saw that the referees tonight would be Don VanMassenhoeven and Stephen Walkom, I knew there wouldn’t be much in the way of power plays. There weren’t (five combined, and two of them came on “technical” calls had had to be made – delay of game and too many men on the ice). Those two are a pair of old-school, call only the most obvious fouls sorts of officials.

- Mike Green had three hits. Two of them were of the slobberknocker variety. We’re thinking the one on Jiri Tlusty in the Zamboni corner left quite a mark.

You could say the Caps escaped with the extra point tonight, and it would be a reasonable conclusion to make. But six months from now, who will care? Tomorrow, it is another Hockey Night in Canada appearance for the Caps, which is what they might have been peeking ahead to in any case. They’ll have to be better, even against Toronto.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, December 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps return home to catch up on holiday shopping and to play only their second home game of December, hosting the Island of Misfit Toys that is the Carolina Hurricanes. The Caps return home (at least going into last night’s action) owners of the best record in the NHL, which is not necessarily a good thing if you consider the number of President’s Trophy winners that traded up to a Stanley Cup (seven in 23 seasons). But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. This is the festive season of hope and…

“Cheesy Christmas presents.”

Well, yeah… and let me guess, you sell such things.

“C.J. Penney’s the name, and Christmas is my game. And I have just the thing for the discerning hockey fan this year.”

OK, we’ll play along.

“Well, who wouldn’t love to find this in their stocking?”



A hockey tie? Isn’t that a little cliché?

"But it’s in the Caps colors! OK, OK… now I know you can’t resist this…"



Chocolate hockey pucks.

"OK, maybe that’s more of an Easter kind of thing. Well, then a how about…"



A Mr. Potato head…

"Hey… But check out the logo… the Penguins. Caps fans will eat that up."

Like the pucks?

"OK…here’s a multi-tasker. You can give it on Christmas or wear it on New Year’s Eve."


Just add ice… clever.

“Alright, alright. How about something for the ‘coach’ in the family.”




Hmm… another multi-tasker, I see.

"And you can play this while celebrating…"



Has potential.

"OK, I didn’t want to do this, but you forced me to bring out the ultimate holiday hockey weapon…"


Awwwwwwwwwwwwwww…

We’re not sure that these gift ideas will suit your fancy, but the Carolina Hurricanes coming to town might be the remedy for the Caps after enduring a 3-0 shutout at the hands of the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday. Just look at the numbers…



There are a lot of “30th’s” in there for the Hurricanes (although that 28th-ranked power play is one slot higher than Pittsburgh – go figure). What’s more, the Hurricanes have only one win on the road, that coming against that same Pittsburgh team, 3-2, last Monday (ironically, because Carolina could score a power play goal, and the Penguins could not).

But there lies a danger with the Hurricanes, though. Having lost to Buffalo on the road and about to head out on the road again for a four-game trip, this is something of a “gap” game that the Caps will try just as soon as not to get rid of, which leads to cutting corners. And the Hurricanes have won two of their past three (their first wins in regulation in consecutive games this season) since dropping a tight 3-2 decision to the Caps on November 30th.

If you just glance at the scoring tables, the Hurricanes have ten players who have double digits in total points, the Caps have 11. The similarity ends there. Carolina has only one player with as many as 20 points (Ray Whitney, 8-12-20), while the Caps have six, and they have three with at least 30.

Perhaps even a more stark difference – a reflection of the first and last positions of these teams in 5-on-five play – is the face that the Caps have 17 players on the “plus” side of the ledger, including six players with at least a plus-10 figure, while the Hurricanes have no players on the “plus” side of the ledger and six with at least a minus-10. Neat symmetry, that.

Who’s hot?

Joni Pitkanen has five assists in the three games since the Hurricanes met the Caps. That follows a 13-game run where he had only a pair of assists on his record. Pitkanen leads all NHL defensemen in time-on-ice per shift (1:00/shift), and he has logged more than 30 minutes of ice time four times this year, including two of his last four games. Pitkanen is 1-5-6 in 14 career games against Washington.

Eric Staal had a three game streak in which he had two assists in each snapped in the Hurricanes’ 4-2 loss to New Jersey on Wednesday. Still, six points in four games qualifies as hot, especially when it almost doubles Staal’s point total for the year (he is 3-10-13 in 20 games). He is 14-22-36 in 37 career games against the Caps, and he had – yes – two assists in the only meeting of the year between these teams, the game that started him on the three-game, six-assist run.

Who’s Not?

The joke here would be “everyone else,” and there is a kernel of truth in that. But we can start with Rod Brind’Amour. The Carolina captain was a healthy scratch for a 3-2 win over the Penguins, the first time he was a healthy scratch for a game since dinosaurs roamed the earth (actually, the first time in nine seasons). Brind’Amour, who is tied for 11th on the club is scoring (2-6-8 in 29 games), is dead last among 767 NHL players in plus-minus (minus-19). He finished 883rd among 884 players in that number last year. He qualifies as “not hot” here because in his last dozen games he is 0-1-1, minus-6, and he hasn’t logged as many as 15 minutes of ice time in his last nine games (three times in his last five games being given fewer than ten). He is 39-42-81 in 98 career games against Washington.

We might include Sergei Samsonov in this category, too. In his last dozen games he is 1-2-3, and he’s occupying a seat at the far end of the bench, too (two games with more than 15 minutes in his last ten to go with his two of fewer than ten minutes). He is 4-14-18 in 39 career games against the Caps.

Keys…

1. Ward off a loss. Cam Ward returned to the ice on Wednesday after missing time with a lacerated leg, taking the loss in a 4-2 decision against New Jersey. He is 12-5-2 with a 2.54 GAA in 20 career games against the Caps, and considering the sort of year the Caps had last year, Ward was borderline spectacular against them – 2-1-1, 2.46, .927. His presence in the lineup alone makes this Hurricanes team very different than the ones the Caps defeated 12 days ago.

2. First things first. The Caps lead all of the NHL in first period goals scored (39). Carolina is tied for fourth most in first period goals allowed (29). The Caps are, in fact, +24 (goals scored/goals allowed) in the first period so far this year. Washington potted two in the first period in the first meeting of these teams, then held on for the 3-2 win. Two would be nice tonight, too…without the holding on part.

3. Show some Flash. Tomas Fleischmann has never scored a goal against the Hurricanes (0-2-2 in 19 career games). He had a mini-streak (3-2-5 in three games) ended against the Sabres on Wednesday. Here’s a chance to kill two birds with one puck – getting back on the scoring train and breaking the schneid against the Hurricanes.

Even with Ward, who may or may not be still shaking off cobwebs, the Caps are the vastly superior team. Like that matters. Jose Theodore, who will get the call tonight, it would seem, allowed a goal early (to Joe Corvo 4:35 into the contest) and allowed a goal late (in the last 16 seconds to Matt Cullen) in the first meeting. Even if Carolina scored ten goals in their last three games following the loss to the Caps, they are not an especially formidable offense. This one is up to Ward – and whether the Caps can find the rust spots.

Caps 4 – Hurricanes 1

Well, they went and did it...

That's right, the Caps went and blew it. With the loss last night in regulation, the Caps blew any chance they might have had to tie the NHL record for fewest losses in regulation time in a season...

Five

The record was set by the original Ottawa Senators in 1919-20 (in 24 games), and later tied by the Boston Bruins in 1929-30 (44 games) and the Montreal Canadiens in 1943-44 (50 games).

They still have a shot at doing some damage to the post-expansion record for fewest losses...

Eight, by the 1976-1977 Montreal Canadiens.

We do believe, for the record, that the Caps will have considerable difficulty matching that 60-8-12 record of the Canadiens of that season.

Just thought you'd like to know.

A NO-point night: Sabres 3 - Caps 0

It’s not the end of the world.

Yes, the Caps lost last night, 3-0, to the Buffalo Sabres. Yes, they were shutout for the first time this year. This game was decided by one factor, and one factor alone…

The Caps did just about everything right. The outshot, out-attempted, out-hit the Sabres. They won the turnover battle, they won the faceoff battle, they took only three shorthanded situations (none in the third period, which has been an occasional problem), and if you take a look at the shots-on-goal graphic, they got shots from high-probability-of-success areas...

This was one of those nights when they just ran up against not just a hot goaltender, but a goaltender who is at the very top of his game, playing the best hockey of his professional career. At the 30-game mark, the Vezina conversation really should begin with “Ryan” and end with “Miller.” The only debate is whether he is also a front-runner for the Hart Trophy.

At the other end, the only real “mistake” we could hang on Jose Theodore was his getting late into position to defend Nathan Gerbe’s walk-out move along the goal line that allowed Gerbe to stuff the puck under Theodore. The other goals were off a deflection from Milan Jurcina’s boot and a rebound that the Caps’ defense couldn’t clear because they were backing up furiously as a trio of Sabres gained the offensive zone with speed and under control.

Other stuff…

- The Caps got shots from the right people… six from Alex Ovechkin, five from Nicklas Backstrom, four each from Mike Green and Eric Fehr.

- Backstrom did everything but pilot the plane back to Washington (oh yeah, and score). Five shots on goal, ten attempts, three hits, and he won 12 of 18 draws. He also logged more than 25 minutes of ice time, a career high among regular season games (including extra time contests).

- We’re not entirely buying the idea that the Caps lacked energy tonight. If anything, they might have been guilty of trying to be a little too fine in their attack early.

- Among the streaks ending with this game is the 30-gamer the Caps had in which they led at some point during the game.

- Brian Pothier missed the last 28 minutes of the game with an injury. Shaone Morrisonn didn’t play much in the first period (3:45 in ice time) and missed a chunk of the second period (only 3:23 in ice time), but seemed to take regular shifts in the third period. Still, is he altogether right?

- Alexander Semin’s struggles against this team continue… Almost 22 minutes, one shot on goal.

- David Steckel did not take the ice for the last 25 minutes of the game, his last shift coming on that where Nathan Gerbe scored his goal for Buffalo. Looking at the play, except for losing the faceoff (Steckel lost two of nine on the night), he didn’t seem to be guilty of doing anything particularly wrong; the play was unfolding far away from him. That moment also happened to be the last of the sightings of Tyler Sloan, who finished the night with only 4:20 of ice time.

- Speaking of faceoffs, Jochen Hecht took it in the teeth… he won one of 11 draws. His one win wasn’t even against a center (Semin took the draw). Add that to the fact that he has just four points in his last 13 games, and this just ain’t his year.

- Tyler Myers was one of only two Buffalo skaters without a shot on goal… but he blocked eight Caps shots, and he played almost 26 minutes. OK, there were the six giveaways, but he’s a keeper, alright.

- In the “having your cake and eating it, too” file, there was another instance of tripping for one player, diving for the other. Well, no. It’s one, or it’s the other. It’s not both.

Hey, losses happen. Sometimes, a team really does run into a hot goaltender, although we’re of a mind to use the term “good,” rather than hot…Miller’s been doing this all year (he should have gotten the league’s first star of the night; he blanked the highest scoring team in the league – one that hadn’t been shutout this year – Ty Conklin blanked a team that had been shutout twice in its previous seven games, even if that team was Detroit). The trick, as always, is making sure that one doesn’t become two (as in, “in a row”). They get that chance against Carolina tomorrow.

Look, we knew Philly fans were brutal...

...but this is way over the top:

"I had the right of way, going across the pedestrian line, and I saw there was a gold Tahoe or Yukon was trying to get in the left lane to turn, and decided to turn, and in the corner of my eye, I saw it and jumped up and took the brunt of it. I did a nice roll and dismount. It was OK. It was weird, like slow-motion. I just reacted by bracing myself by jumping up and taking the brunt of the force and just rolling. Got up, realized I was OK, was like, 'Is this going on for real?' Then I threw out some profanities at the guy."

That was Islanders defenseman and former Capital Brendan Witt, who was struck by an SUV getting his morning coffee yesterday. A witness to the incident said:

"Boy, that guy is tough. It was like seeing Clint Eastwood, but in hockey. I really thought a Hollywood movie was being made. I was looking around for cameras. I can't believe how tough this guy is. It's insanity."

Witt did play last night in the Islanders' 6-2 loss to the Flyers. He played 17 minutes, finishing even with two blocked shots and two hits...

...three if you include the SUV.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, December 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are live at Peerless Central as the Caps take it on the road again, this time in Buffalo to take on the Sabres. And unlike Philadelphia, where it’s always sunny, in Buffalo, it’s either snowing or about to snow. Unlike Buffalo, however, where people actually lead their lives when the precip hits the fan, as it were, folks in Washington run to their local grocery store for all sorts of necessities and to their hardware store for shovels, snow blowers, plows, flame throwers, and more salt that you’d find in the flats of Utah.

But when all is said and done, folks head home and are in need of entertainment. It just so happens that your Uncle Peerless has the perfect game that hockey fans can play while gathering around the TV to watch the Caps. Now, before we get too far along, send the kids out of the room. We’ll wait…

OK, now before your minds get away from you, this isn’t some weird Tiger Woods kind of “Spin the Mistress” sort of game. This is a game called, well… “Buffalo,” and it involves adult beverages. The rules are rather simple, but you have to know which hand is which, so to speak…

First, you can hold your drink with either hand, but may only drink from it with the weaker of your two hands (for example, if you are right-handed, you must drink with your left). If any other Buffalo players spot you drinking with your dominant hand, they call “Buffalo” on you, and you must finish your drink as quickly as possible. If you hesitate to finish your drink, the other players will usually proceed to make a ruckus chanting "Buffalo!" and banging on the table until you finish.

Next, If you call a false “Buffalo” on somebody (call “Buffalo” when they are actually drinking with the proper hand), you are obligated to finish your own drink. Special care must be made when drinking with left-handed Buffalos because of this rule.

Last, once you begin playing Buffalo, you are playing it for the rest of your life, sort of like Lindy Ruff playing “coach” in, well, Buffalo.

You and your friends (of suitable drinking age) can play this game while watching the Caps dismantle the Sabres and dismantle a case or two of adult pops in the process.

Hey, I'm not making this stuff up. What?... You'd rather play Parcheesi?

The Caps are set to play Buffalo (the hockey team, not the game) tonight in an attempt to extend their winning streak to seven games. Buffalo will be a formidable test, despite the fact that the Caps dispatched the Sabres by a score of 2-0 in their only previous meeting this year. So far this year, the tale o’ the tape (numbers going into last night's action) for these teams suggest a closely fought contest is at hand…



Since the last meeting between these teams, Buffalo has gone 4-2-0, winning their first four of those games and sitting on a two-game losing streak. The one constant in those six games has been the play of goaltender Ryan Miller. Miller got the call in all of them and allowed more than two goals in only one of them (4-2-0, 1.34, .959, one shutout). Miller has, in fact been the rock upon which the Sabres’ season has been built to date. In 24 appearances to date, Miller has allowed more than two goals only five times and more than three only twice. The Caps are not one of those teams to solve Miller for more than two goals, scoring only two in the 2-0 win over Miller and the Sabres on November 25th in Semyon Varlamov’s first NHL regular season shutout.

Who’s Hot?

Since the Caps and Sabres met last, Buffalo has been led in scoring by right wing Jason Pominville (2-4-6) and rookie defenseman Tyler Myers (0-6-6). Pominville had a four game points streak snapped on Monday when the Sabres became Martin Brodeur’s 103rd career shutout victim (Brodeur tying Terry Sawchuk’s NHL shutout record), 3-0. In 16 career games against the Caps he is 5-5-10, but he was held off the score sheet in the team’s first meeting this year.

Myers, on the other hand, is making a case for Calder Trophy consideration. He is second among all rookie defensemen in scoring and is tied for third in plus-minus. He is second only to Victor Hedman in ice time among rookie blueliners, tied for fourth in hits, and is second in blocked shots.

Who’s Not?

It’s hard to single out any Sabre for being cold. As has been the case over recent years, this is a team characterized by considerable offensive balance. Over the last six games, the Sabres have gotten that. Seven players are tied for the team lead in this stretch with two goals apiece. Eight different players have at least four points.

The Sabres cannot be thought of, generally speaking, as a “gritty” team. In the “gritistics” (we just made that up), on home ice Buffalo ranks as follows:

Hits: 26th (last overall in all games)
Blocked Shots: 19th (29th overall)
Takeaways: 25th (26th overall)

Keys…

1. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Caps have done it with offense and defense, with stars scoring and support players scoring, with goaltending and discipline. On their six-game winning streak they have outscored teams 25-9, their power play is 9-for-31 (29.0 percent), and their penalty killing has gone 20-for-23 (87.0 percent). There isn’t much there to tweak.

2. Three’s the Key. The Sabres are a team that places an undue burden on its goaltender to win games. The Sabres are 1-7 in games where they allowed more than two goals, and they are on a seven game losing streak in that regard.

3. The Other Alex. Alexander Semin has struggled against the Sabres like no other team. Against teams he has played in at least ten games, Semin has fewer points against Buffalo (1-1-2 in 11 games) than any other. If he can shake that spell, it’s going to be real trouble for Buffalo.

This really isn’t terribly complicated. The Caps are hot, they have more weapons, they are playing better than the Sabres at both ends of the ice. Miller is almost certainly going to have to hold the Caps to two goals or fewer for the Sabres to win. He’s certainly capable of that (he’s already done it once this year), but the old saying in gaming applies here…

Bet the streak.

Caps 3 – Sabres 2

Oh, and remember... drink responsibly, and never, ever drink and drive.

Different Eras

As the team reports on Twitter today...

"This is just the second time the Caps have had the NHL's best record this late in a season (other was 1991-92)."

The Caps' 19-5-6 record (44 points) tops the league this afternoon. In that 1991-1992 season, the Caps had a record of 21-9-0 (42 points) after 30 games. However, how these teams got there was rather different, a reflection of the different eras.

Today's Caps are the best offensive team in the NHL, averaging 3.60 goals per game at the 30-game mark. But that 1991-1992 team? Through 30 games they potted a whopping 137 goals (4.57/game). 15 times in those 30 games they scored at least five goals, compared to six times (discounting Gimmicks) for today's version of the Caps.

And defense? The Caps, by today's standards, are a good (but not great) group overall, their 2.67 goals allowed per game mark standing 10th in the league. But today's numbers look a lot better than the 3.17 goals allowed per game through 30 games by that 1991-1992 team (95 total goals). That's the goals allowed per game by Anaheim so far, and they're 26th in the league in that statistic.

If you ever needed a quick lesson in just how much the game has changed in the past couple of decades, even with today's rules that "open up" the offense, there it is in rather stark terms.

Psst...don't look now, but...