2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich

Theme: “What is good? All that heightens the feeling of power, the will to power, power itself in man.”
-- Friedrich Nietzsche

Power is something of a recurring theme in Brooks Laich’s 2010-2011 season. First, if you look at this season compared to last, the results are almost duplicates of one another with one very important exception:

Power play goals. Add back those power play goals he recorded in 2009-2010 that he didn’t get in 2010-2011, and the goals, assists, points, plus/minus – just about everything – looks like his 2009-2010 season. And just how did that happen? Well, you can see it in the ten-game splits...

No power play goals scored after his third ten-game segment (Game 26, the first goal in a 4-1 win over St. Louis that happened to be the last game the Caps won before their eight-game losing streak). This is not a trivial consideration in Laich’s season when looked at in the context of the three seasons that came before. Because looking at those seasons, he is not an especially prolific scorer at even strength:

2009-2010: 78 games/11-20-31
2008-2009: 82 games/12-24-36
2007-2008: 82 games/13-14-27

Another way of looking at Laich’s drop in power play production is that among seven forwards who averaged at least 1:00 power play time per 60 minutes, Laich finished last among Caps forwards in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4 (those who played the entire season with the club and appeared in at least 20 games). He dropped from 2.77 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4 in 2009-2010 to 0.53 in 2010-2011. He went 52 consecutive games without so much as a power play point. And here is the stunning fact accompanying those numbers. Laich faced the worst competition of any Caps forward at 5-on-4 (and it wasn’t close: Laich, according to behindthenet.ca – the source of all the numbers in this paragraph – had a QUALCOMP value of -0.461, Mike Knuble was nest at +0.246).

The even strength and power play numbers end up married to another summary number – 7.7. That was Laich’s shooting percentage for the season and by far his lowest since 2006-2007. An appropriate benchmark here is Mike Knuble. One might expect (or perhaps more precisely, “hope”) that Laich would assume much of the role a Knuble fills – a forward with size who can contribute by scoring goals in close and on the power play. Except that Knuble – in what was his worst year in some time in this regard – had a shooting percentage of 11.8 percent. Had Laich converted his 207 shots on goal with the same frequency he accomplished the feat in 2009-2010 (itself not close to a career best), he would have finished with 23 goals, almost what he recorded in 2009-2010 (25).

On the other side of special teams, Laich averaged more shorthanded ice time in 2010-2011 than any other Capitals forward (2:18/game). And among Caps forwards that averaged more than 1:00 ice time per 60 minutes, Laich had the second best differential of goals against/on ice to goals against/off ice per 60 minutes at 4-on-5: 1.50 (Marcus Johansson’s differential was higher: 1.70). He also faced the second highest quality of competition when on ice at 4-on-5.

Odd Laich Fact… Laich was an even or better player on every day of the week in 2010-2011.

Game to Remember… March 15, 2011. At the 13:23 mark of the first period, Laich broke a 1-1 tie against the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre. It was Laich’s 100th goal in the NHL, and it came in a 4-2 win for the Caps.

Game to Forget… November 22, 2010. It was the last in a string of utterly forgettable games for the Caps. After having dropped a 5-0 shutout in Atlanta and a 5-4 Gimmick loss to the Flyers at home, Laich and the Caps lost a 5-0 shutout in New Jersey. Laich was for two of the goals in this one and was on the ice for five of the 13 goals scored in that three game stretch (one other goal coming on a penalty shot, the other the difference in the Gimmick).

Post Season… A post-season of 1-6-7, even, is not exactly the worst of outcomes, but it served as a microcosm of Laich’s season, too. No power play goals, one power play assist. And even though he finished 1-2-3 in the four game sweep at the hands of Tampa Bay, he recorded only eight shots on goal in the four games, five of them coming in Game 2 in which he scored his only goal of the series.

In the end, there seems to be less to Laich’s season than meets the eye. Although he finished fourth in total scoring, he was fifth in goals, and his power play goals total decreased significantly from his previous season. He was second on the Caps in playoff scoring, but his 4.8 percent shooting percentage was far from what the Caps needed (one goal).

Moving forward, Laich is about to test the unrestricted free agency waters (if he does not re-sign before July 1 with the Caps). Some might look at his numbers and think he is potentially a top-six forward. But looking at his numbers, we see something different. A reliable third line forward who can kill penalties and who can (when on top of his game) provide some additional power play punch. If a team thinks that is worth $4.5 million a year, more power to them and to Laich. But at the moment, as the free agent signing period approaches, Laich has power…even if there wasn’t as much as fans might have liked on the power play.

Grade: B-

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mike Knuble

Mike Knuble

Theme: “Hard work is the yeast that raises the dough “
-- Unknown

Mike Knuble’s career is a study in the virtues of perseverance and hard work. He did not play his first game in the NHL until 1997 the age of 24 after having been drafted in the fourth round by Detroit in 1991. He did not play in more than 60 games until he was 26 and after he was traded by the Red Wings to the Rangers for the 1998-1999 season. He didn’t surpass 20 goals for a season until he reached the age of 30 and was playing for Boston. But since that 2002-2003 season – one in which he recorded 30 goals – he has posted eight consecutive 20-plus goal seasons, including the 24 he put up in the 2010-2011 season with Washington. And we would wager than most of the 218 goals he scored over the past eight seasons were achieved within 15 feet of the net. Not a place for the faint of heart or those who are allergic to hard work.

Not that 2010-2011 started all that well for Knuble. He recorded only three goals in his first 20 games, and in the 20th game took a puck to the face midway through a 5-0 loss to Atlanta that knocked him out of the lineup for three games (the only three he would miss in the regular season). Things didn’t get a lot better on his return. He recorded two goals in his third ten-game split, but he was starting to come around in his fourth ten-game split. He had three goals in nine games heading into the last game of that segment – Game 40 of the season, which happened to be the Winter Classic in Pittsburgh.

In that January 1st game, Knuble got the Caps on the board after Evgeni Malkin gave the Penguins the first lead early in the second period. The Caps would go on to win the game, and the goal scored by Knuble propelled him to 16 goals in his last 43 games (a 31-goal pace per 82 games). He scored nine goals in his last 13 games to close the season with a rush. Not bad for a 38-year old geezer. His overall ten-game splis looked like this:

Despite the slow start, Knuble finished third on the team in goals, fifth in total points, and tied for the team lead in power play goals. He was rather responsible with the puck, recording 45 takeaways and only 18 giveaways, the 2.50 ratio being second best among forwards on the club who played in at least 50 games (of course, Knuble’s not being called upon to do a lot of puck-handling no doubt contributed to that result).

If there is anything remarkable in Knuble’s drill-down numbers it is their “unremarkableness.” Fifth among forwards in goals for/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (20 games with Caps minimum); fifth best goals against in those situations; fifth best plus/minus in those situations (numbers from behindthenet.ca). He faced the sixth highest quality of completion among Caps forwards, and (as befits someone who skated primarily on the top line) had the highest quality of teammates at 5-on-5. He had the second highest Corsi value relative to his teammates (grouped with his usual linemates Nicklas Backstrom (first) and Alex Ovechkin (third) in that measure).

One number stands out from the others, though – 11.8. That was Knuble’s shooting percentage for the season, and it was the lowest he recorded for any season since he shot 10.9 percent with Boston in 2003-2004. It was still good for fourth on the team in shooting percentage, but for someone who generally doesn’t shoot from the outside, it was a bit of an unexpected result. Here is how his numbers compared to last season:

Odd Knuble Fact… Mike Knuble has never stopped playing against the Atlantic Division, it would seem. In 18 games against the Atlantic, he was 10-6-16, plus-7. In 61 games against everyone else, he was 14-10-24, plus-3.

Game to Remember… March 18, 2001. Knuble had a hand in all three Capitals goals in a 3-0 decision in New Jersey over the Devils. He assisted on a goal by Jeff Schultz to open the scoring, then scored two of his own in putting up what would be the first of consecutive three-point games. He repeated the three-peat four days later in Philadelphia with a goal and two assists, the second assist coming on a game-tying goal with 3:19 to play. The Caps won the game in a Gimmick, 5-4 over the Flyers.

Game to Forget… October 19, 2010. Knuble has done well against one former team – the Flyers. But not so well against another on this night. He was on the ice for the first two Boston Bruin goals – scored in the first 12 minutes of the game – while he went without a point (minus-2). He would go until April before he would be as bad as a minus-2 again.

Post Season… In a way, he would probably like to forget this, too. After being held off the score sheet in the first two games of the opening round series against the Rangers, he scored a goal in Game 3. However, he suffered a hand injury, and the Rangers won that game, 3-2. He missed the next three playoff games – the last two against New York and Game 1 against Tampa Bay. He did manage a goal over the last three games against the Lightning, but the Caps fell in a sweep.

In the end, Knuble had a solid season. Perhaps not up to his 2009-2010 numbers, but what Cap did? He is a very good fit for this team – a counterweight to the flash and dash of an Alex Ovechkin or the playmaking wizardry of a Nicklas Backstrom. He’s the anchor who can clean up messes left around the opponent’s net, and he does so without much by way of peaks and valleys in his production. Going forward, the issue will be whether the one-year, $2.0 million contract extension he signed in April will be worth the investment. He has some motivation for next season in that he is 32 games short of appearing in 1,000 games in his career, and he is 32 goals short of 300. Not out of the question, if his finish this year is an indicator that he still has gas in the tank. But his hallmark has been a consistency and a steadiness, his hard work being that yeast that helps let the top line rise.

Grade: B

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: D.J. King

D.J. King

Theme: “Judicious absence is a weapon.”
-- Charles Reade

When Stefan Della Rovere was traded to the St. Louis Blues 11 months ago for D.J. King, the lede in the news report in the Washington Post was as follows:

“The Washington Capitals added a significant amount of toughness to their lineup Wednesday by acquiring rugged right wing D.J. King in a trade with the St. Louis Blues.”

King had a reputation for being a rugged (27 fights in 101 career games) if somewhat brittle (played a total of 74 of 246 games in his last three years in St. Louis) player. On his second shift as a Capital during a pre-season matchup he took on Boston’s Shawn Thornton, which elicited this response from head coach Bruce Boudreau:

"I told him earlier on: ‘You don't have to fight in training camp'... but he wanted to show his new teammates and the fans that he's not bad at his craft. It made the guys feel better on the bench knowing they had a big brother out there...that's the feeling I got. We never really had that tough, physical presence last year."

Well, that was the plan. By the time the 2010-2011 season was over, King dressed for a total of 16 regular season games, was waived once (in February), had as many fights as shots on goal for the season (six), and did not dress for more than four consecutive games at any point in the season. He did not top ten minutes of ice time in any of the 16 games in which he played and topped eight minutes only once. In fact, his 90 minutes of total ice time was about a week’s worth of ice time for the likes of Mike Green. He was 859th among 891 skaters in average ice time per game.

And to the extent you put value in such assessments, the polls at hockeyfights.com did not have him winning any of his six fights for the season (0-4-2). The Caps had a record of 2-2-2 in games in which King recorded a fighting major. He finished his scoring line at 0-2-2, minus-3 for the season. There was, however, a fitting symmetry to his regular season. He had a fight on his first shift in his first game of the season, and he had a fight on his first shift of his last game of the season.

There just aren’t enough games to look at ten-game splits, except to look at his games played per segment:

1st: 3
2nd: 3
3rd: 2
4th: 0
5th: 4
6th: 1
7th: 1
Last: 2

If the object was to “[make] the guys feel better on the bench knowing they had a big brother out there,” then the guys weren’t feeling better too often, except to the extent Matt Hendricks (14 fights) or Matt Bradley (10) were picking up the slack. And neither of those players could be considered heavyweights as the term is generally understood in the NHL.

The Caps took on King to be more than a fighter. As general manager George McPhee put it:

"What we see in this player is someone who brings grit but looks like he could be a reliable player. I remember Joe Kocur late in his career was a far better player because he gave himself a chance to play and actually held down a fourth line role with Detroit when they won a Cup. If we could add a player to the club who is gritty and can play, that makes us a better team. We think if we get working with this player, he can become a reliable player who can play a little bit more." 

Things did not seem to work out that way, and this isn’t King’s fault. When called upon, he answered the bell, and by appearances looked to be giving an honest effort as a player -- not merely a fighter -- in those instances in which he was called upon. It is not as if he was an unknown commodity before he came to Washington. And what’s more, he agreed to a two-year contract extension ($637,500 per season) before the trade that brought him to Washington. Perhaps it was more about moving Stefan Della Rovere. Perhaps it really was an effort to get nastier than the Caps have been. But whatever the reason, the acquisition of King looks to have had almost no benefit to the club, at least in the first year of his contract. One hopes Year Two works out better. Otherwise, one wonders if the Caps are employing judicious absence of a player with King’s skills, or they just badly misread the benefits of the trade.

Grade: C

(Photo: Nick Laham/Getty Images North America)

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Eric Fehr

Eric Fehr

Theme: “Promises are like the full moon, if they are not kept at once they diminish day by day”
-- German Proverb

Eric Fehr was drafted in 2003, famously one spot ahead of Ryan Getzlaf (famous among Caps fans, at least), and before he would post two consecutive seasons with Brandon in the WHL in which he scored at least 50 goals. Since then, Fehr’s career has been a battle – to overcome injury, to escape the occasional sentences to the coach’s dog house, to find the scoring touch he had in junior hockey. The Caps have had glimpses of the latter from time to time, including once on a famous stage (to which we will return).

But the facts are these – Fehr has not yet played 70 games in a season. He has topped the 20 goal plateau only once, and he has suffered repeated injuries to his shoulders that have cast doubt over his future as a productive professional hockey player (he had post-season surgery on his right shoulder that could render him unready to start training camp in September).

Last season, largely due to injury (he missed 23 games to shoulder injuries and two other for “upper body” injuries), he regressed from his 2009-2010 numbers. And when he was in the lineup, he was not approaching his 2009-2010 scoring rate. In fact, except for a brief spike in production around the New Year – a six game stretch from December 19th through January 8th in which he was 4-3-7, plus-5 – he had a dismal season (6-7-13, minus-5 in his other 46 games).

Again, though, there were glimpses. When he was healthy or fresh, he could produce. Consider this; Fehr began the season with two goals in his first three games. When he returned from his 22-game injury hiatus on March 9th, he recorded a pair of goals in his first game back. He had three goals and five points over four games after missing two of three games (for personal reasons) at the end of December. Those three instances account for 7-6-13 of his total production for the year, covering only eight games of his 52-game season. His overall ten-game splits look like this:

Even with his diminished capacity and limited production, there were glimpses. Among forwards playing in at least half the Caps’ season, Fehr finished fourth in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (numbers from behindthenet.ca). And he did that largely by being the only goal scorer on what line he played on – he was next to last among that same group of forwards in goals for/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Comparing the two sets of numbers, he looks to have done much of the scoring on his line.

He did benefit, however, from the fact that he faced the weakest competition of any Caps forward that played at least half the season with the team (although the quality of competition he faced was comparatively weak as well – fourth weakest among those 11 Caps forwards). Still, he could not muster a level of production level to match what he did last year, in what is now his career year in the NHL:

Odd Fehr Fact… If Fehr could have duplicated his home production on the road, he would have had a nice season. On an 82-game basis, Fehr produced at a 20-23-43 pace at home, 11-6-17 pace on the road.

Game to Remember… January 1, 2011. On the game’s biggest regular season stage, Fehr had what might have been his best game as a Cap. In the 2011 Bridgestone Winter Classic against the Pittsburgh Penguins, he had his second two-goal game with Washington (first of two in the 2010-2011 season) – one of them the game-winner, the other a third-period insurance goal (the two goals being scored in a four-shift span for Fehr). He added two blocked shots and was plus-2 for the night, all while playing in less than ten minutes in the Caps’ 3-1 win.

Game to Forget… March 15, 2011. Fehr played in a grand total of 5:16 in a 4-2 win in Montreal. He skated nine shifts , recording only a single shot on goal and one takeaway before departing with an “upper body” injury that would keep him out of four of the next seven games. Starting with that game, Fehr would record no goals and only nine shots on goal in the last eight games in which he played. His season was done, but he didn’t know it yet.

Post Season… Fehr did manage to play in five games and gamely recorded ten shots in the effort (one goal), but by that time his shoulder was likely keeping him from making anything close to a meaningful contribution. And the longer it takes for Fehr to accomplish that feat, the more it seems the chances diminish day by day.

In the end, Fehr had to endure another frustrating season, and Caps fans must wait until the fall to see if his surgically-repaired shoulder (the second time on his right one) will permit him to edge a little closer to the goal-scoring promise he had when drafted. What makes things doubly frustrating is that the Caps have had opportunities on the wing for someone of Fehr’s potential – someone who can finish, either with a nasty wrist shot or swatting home loose pucks from in front. That he hasn’t cashed in on those opportunities seems to be as much a circumstance of injuries interrupting his progress as any deficiencies in Fehr’s game.

Going forward, the Caps will have Alex Ovechkin, Mike Knuble, and Alexander Semin on the wings (well, probably Semin). With Brooks Laich’s future with the team in considerable doubt, the door is nudged open once again for a player with Fehr’s skills. Whether his shoulders are strong enough to push it open the rest of the way is the unsettled question.

Grade: C+

The Peerless Prognosticator Presents: Your 2011 Peerless Draft Prog-"Mock"-tications

Well, here we are. The 2010-2011 season has been put to bed, the awards are getting dusted off to be handed out, and the draft is upon us. This year, the brain trusts of 30 NHL teams will descend on Xcel Energy Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, to ponder just which 18-year old their fans will want traded as a 23-year old. Teams have been going over combine results, talking with amateur coaches, and consulting tarot cards in an effort to find that perfect fit, that one key element that will propel them to a Stanley Cup. Guys, all you had to do was come visit The Peerless, who brings you the most mocktastic of mock drafts.

Cousin, is “mocktastic” even a word?

Hey, Fearless…it’s one of those bloggy kinds of words one uses to put some oomph in the narrative.

I see…like Faulkner.

“Faulk who?”

And of course, where there is Fearless, there is Cheerless…you guys here for the draft?

“Yes, cousin, and I was just wondering. Have you even seen any of these fine young men play hockey?”

N-n-n-n-n-n-n-ope.

“Why should that matter, cuz? He seen the Caps play hockey and his prognosteecations ain’t worth pig spit, neither.”

“You are wise, Cheerless.”

Shall we begin?...

1. Edmonton: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C (Red Deer/WHL)

What do the Oilers need?... To stop picking first! Two years ago, the Oilers selected Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson with the tenth overall pick. Edmonton goes the hyphenate route again by taking the consensus number one pick in 2011. No Nugent has ever played in the NHL, but Dean Hopkins played in one game for the Oilers in the 1985-86 season; Larry Hopkins played in 60 games in the NHL for Toronto and Winnipeg. Nugent-Hopkins seems to be a lock to be the greatest Nugent or Hopkins ever to play in the NHL. His NHL.com profile says that he “was named the 2008 BC Minor Hockey Player of the Year, an honor handed out annually to a BC Amateur Hockey Association player who best exemplifies sportsmanship, leadership, and hockey skill.” Sort of like the Lindsay, Messier, and Lady Byng rolled into one. The Lady Byngsayier?

2. Colorado Avalanche: Gabriel Landeskog, LW (Kitchener/OHL)

What does Colorado need?... Sakic, Forsberg, Roy. Sorry, none of those available in this draft. The last time the Avalanche drafted this high or higher, they were the Quebec Nordiques. That was back in 1991, when Quebec selected Eric Lindros with the first overall pick. Ah, those were the days… Lindros was the last of three consecutive number one overall picks (Owen Nolan and Mats Sundin being the others). We tried to find an anagram for “Gabriel Landeskog.” It broke the machine.

3. Florida Panthers: Jonathan Huberdeau, C (Saint John/QMJHL)

What does Florida need?... Last year, we said “Mr. Peabody and Sherman to show up with their Wayback Machine to transport the club back to 1996.” It still applies, seeing as how in all the years since they’ve been in the playoffs twice and have won more than 35 games only three times. This will mark the second straight number three overall pick for the Panthers. The last time they had one before that, it was Nathan Horton in 2003. And he had a fine year…for Boston. Oops. Jonathan Huberdeau was born in St. Jerome, Quebec…he played for the Saint John Sea Dogs. Florida is prepared to remame the city the Panthers play in, “St. Sunrise,” if the Panthers draft Huberdeau.

4. New Jersey Devils: Adam Larsson, D (Skelleftea/SWE)

What do the Devils need?... to realize that the glory days are probably over for a while. The last time the Devils picked in the rarified air of the top ten was 20 years ago, when they selected Scott Niedermayer with the third overall pick. Only once since 1996 have the Devils had their first selection higher than the 20th overall pick. Devils fans, this is probably new for you, picking this high, so set your alarms. Adam Larsson says his favorite food is “my mother’s meatballs.” Not…going…there.

5. New York Islanders: Dougie Hamilton, D (Niagara/OHL)

What do the Islanders need?... time. The Isles have done rather well with first round picks lately. Each of their last four first picks in the first round – Kyle Okposo, Joshua Bailey, John Tavares, and even Nino Niederreiter from last June’s draft have appeared in NHL games. Trouble is, the Islanders are making too much a habit of this. Each of those picks was a top-ten selection. As for Dougie Hamilton, what’s the over/under on when he becomes “Doug” Hamilton?

6. Ottawa Senators: Ryan Strome, C (Niagara/OHL)

What does Ottawa need?... A new logo. The one they have looks like part of an ad for Caesar’s Palace. As for young Mr. Strome, he describes his most embarrassing moment in hockey as “’crying after a penalty’ when he was four.” Maybe we should have had Vancouver picking him.

7. Winnipeg Team to be Named Later: Ryan Murphy, D (Kitchener/OHL)

What does Winnipeg need? You mean other than a name and a jersey? Who cares, at least they got all their tickets sold. When asked which three people he would like to have dinner with, Ryan Murphy responded, “Bill Gates, Oprah, and Sidney Crosby so he ‘won’t have to pay the bill.’” He’s going to be an owner some day.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets: Sean Couturier, C (Drummondville/QMJHL)

What does Columbus need? Jim Tressel as head coach. He’s local, he’s a winner, and he probably knows where a guy can get a deal on tattoos. Sean Couturier was born in Phoenix, Arizona and claims Bathurst, New Brunswick as his home town. Huh, too bad he won’t last a few more picks and go to the Coyotes. He could tell them about moving from Phoenix to Canada.

9. Boston Bruins (from Toronto): Mika Zibanejad, C (Djurgarden/SWE)

What to the Bruins need? Silver polish. As for young Mr. Zibanejad, his mother is Finnish and father is Iranian, and he speaks Swedish, Finnish and English. We can’t help wondering what it’s like waiting for him to decide what to order for takeout. We’re betting “Tex-Mex.”

10. Minnesota Wild: Nathan Beaulieu, D (Saint John/QMJHL)

What do the Wild need? Well, to get wild would be a nice change. Okay, so Nathan Beaulieu’s favorite team is the Washington Capitals, and his favorite activity away from the rink is golf. You can’t make this stuff up, folks.

11. Colorado Avalanche (from St. Louis): Joel Armia, RW (Assat/FIN)

What do the Avalanche need? Well, we’ve already covered Sakic and Roy, which by the way is not an animal act in Vegas (although “Roy” can get out of hand from time to time). As for Joel Armia, if you are going to play for a team named “Assat,” be prepared for all the jokes about choice of head fashion.

12. Carolina Hurricanes: Sven Baertschi, LW (Portland/WHL)

What does Carolina need? Rod Brind’Amour to say, “I changed my mind.” Sven Baertschi’s goal celebration is described as, “nothing special, just a big smile.” Awwww… isn’t that cute.

13. Calgary Flames: Mark McNeill, C (Prince George/WHL)

What does Calgary need? Someone to figure out a way to clone Jarome Iginla. Mark McNeill's most embarrassing moment came “during peewee summer hockey when he fell behind the net and was unable to move because his jersey was caught on the boards forcing the game to be stopped.” Somewhere, a Sedin just had an idea.

14. Dallas Stars: Duncan Siemens, D (Saskatoon/WHL)

What does Dallas need? Something big. Doesn’t matter what, but they’re in Texas, and everything has to be big! Duncan Siemens is pretty big (6’2”, 192). Asked about his shootout move, he replied, “shoot.” Hockey is, as you can see, a rather simple game.

15. New York Rangers: Oscar Klefbom, D (Farjestad/SWE)

What do the Rangers need? A Larry Brooks/John Tortorella reality show…”Odd Couple from Hell.” One scout said this of Oscar Klefbom… “Worst-case scenario, he’s a big, strong guy who can play against the other team’s top players." Best case scenario is what? Raise the dead?

16. Buffalo Sabres: Tyler Biggs, RW (USA U-18/USHL)

What does Buffalo need? More players named Tyler…Myers, Ennis. Can’t ever have enough. Well, what do you know. Another Tyler. As for Tyler Biggs' shootout move, he says, “Close eyes and shoot the puck.” Beer leaguers all over North America will read that and say, “see? I coulda been a prospect!”

17. Montreal Canadiens: Nicklas Jensen, LW/RW (Oshawa/OHL)

What does Montreal need? A baseball team (insert Nats joke here). Nicklas Jensen’s favorite player is Alex Ovechkin, his shootout move is “Ovechkin fake-shot deke,” and his goal celebration is “Ovechkin going nuts.” He’s more of an Ovechkin fan than Ovechkin's mother is.

18. Chicago Blackhawks: Mark Schiefele, C (Barrie/OHL)

What does Chicago need? To get rid of hot dogs with salads on them, and those poppy seed buns…the seeds are always getting stuck in my teeth. Mr. Schiefele is is to Pavel Datsyuk what Mr. Jensen is to Alex Ovechkin. Favorite player? Datsyuk. Favorite shootout move? “Datsyuk’s move.” Almost sounds like a remake of “From Russia With Love.”

19. Edmonton Oilers (from Los Angeles) : Zach Phillips, C (Saint John/QMJHL)

What does Edmonton need? More of their own picks (not those of other teams) in this area of the draft…it’d be a sign they are improving. Zach Phillips is one of nine Saint John Sea Dogs on the NHL’s Central Scouting list of ranked skaters. Edmonton is actively exploring the possibility of drafting the Sea Dogs en masse and calling it a day.

20. Phoenix Coyotes: Boone Jenner, C (Oshawa/OHL)

What does Phoenix need? A Groupon offer for moving van services. Boone Jenner’s shootout move is ““Try to put it where the goalie isn’t; I change it up.” Did we say hockey is a simple game?

21. Ottawa Senators (from Nashville): Tomas Jurco, RW (Saint John/QMJHL)

What does Ottawa need? A do over on Zdeno Chara? Tomas Jurco names as his favorite players, Marian Hossa and Marian Gaborik. He is, in fact, changing his own first name to “Marian” (ok, he’s not).

22. Anaheim Ducks: Jamie Oleksiak, D Northeastern (HE)

What do the Ducks need? To do something about Jonas Hiller’s mask. I mean, really, spring for a paint job, eh? Jamie Oleksiak once played for the Detroit Little Caesars. He’s 6’7”, 244… sounds like he ate a Detroit’s Little Caesar’s.

23. Pittsburgh Penguins: Scott Mayfield, D (Youngstown/USHL)

What does Pittsburgh need? Well, we’re not sure, but if they need anything the league will bend over backwards to make sure they get it. NHL Central Scouting's Gary Eggleston says, “Scott plays the body well and is physical but not in an overly rambunctious way.” OK, how about a “truculent" way?

24. Detroit Red Wings: Jonathan Miller, C (USA U-18/USHL)

What does Detroit need? Nicklas Lidstrom to just say, “screw it, I’m playing forever.” Jonathan Miller’s favorite home cooked meal is “Hamburger Helper.” A man after Cheerless' own heart.

25. Toronto Maple Leafs (from Philadelphia): Joseph Morrow, D (Portland/WHL)

What does Toronto need? To make the number “1967” illegal to print or to say out loud. Joseph Morrow’s favorite breakfast food is “eggs benedict.” What, no “eggs benedict helper?”

26. Washington Capitals: Brandon Saad, LW (Saginaw/OHL)

What does Washington need? Got what they need right here.  As for Brandon Saad, he’s perfect. Born in Pittsburgh, grew up 30 miles from Pittsburgh, favorite team is the Penguins, favorite player is Sidney Crosby, loves Primanti Brothers. Really, who better to be a Cap?

27. Tampa Bay Lightning: Jonas Brodin, D (Farjestad/SWE)

What does Tampa Bay need?  I don’t really much care what they need. Not after that sweep of the Caps. Jonas Brodin’s shootout move is “shoot often.” Someone needs to take him aside and explain the concept.

28. San Jose Sharks: Connor Murphy, D (USA U-18/USHL)

What does San Jose need? To offer a human sacrifice for all the misfortune they have endured from the hockey gods over the years. Take Dany Heatley…he hasn’t done much lately. As for Connor Murphy, there seems to be a certain fearlessness about him. He went from the Columbus Junior Blue Jackets to Ann Arbor for the US NTDP. From Buckeye country to Wolverine conntry…gotta like that in a kid.

29. Vancouver Canucks: Ty Rattie, RW (Portland/WHL)

What does Vancouver need? To have all 82 regular season and all playoff games played at home. The three dinner guests Ty Rattie would like to invite are: Patrick Kane, Tiger Woods, and Derek Jeter. All of whom make a living by doing damage with large sticks. Guess it would be a working dinner to get tips.

30. Toronto Maple Leafs (from Boston): Matt Puempel, LW (Peterborough/OHL)

What does Toronto need? Well, anyone do anything about that making “1967” illegal yet? Matt Peumpel’s goal celebration is “kiss the finger.” Well, we suppose it beats “pull my finger.”

And there you have it, your 2011 Peerless Prog-“mock”-tications. As always, do not use them for any cash wagering, unless you plan to cut me and the cousins in on the winnings. Happy draft partying!

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera

Theme: “Better a little which is well done, than a great deal imperfectly.”
-- Plato

When Jason Chimera came to the Caps from Columbus in a trade for Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina in December 2009, he had averaged 14 goals and 16 assists, along with a minus-3, per 82 games in a career that spanned 461 games with the Blue Jackets and the Edmonton Oilers. In 39 games with the Caps after the trade, he outperformed his average, recording seven goals and ten assists while posting a plus-6. He made fans with a crusty style (52 hits that was good for seventh among Caps forwards, despite playing in only 39 games) that was matched to a set of wheels that made him one of the fastest skaters in the league.

2010-2011 was something of a different story for Chimera. Three things characterized his game with the Caps in this past season. First, there was an inconsistency in his results. Looking at his ten-game splits, his scoring was a bit up and down, but imbedded in those numbers is the fact that he had five, six, seven, and fourteen game streaks in which he did not record a point. And what’s more, his plus-minus numbers were all over the place, twice recording a minus-4 in a ten-game split, twice recording a plus-2. The overall splits went like this:

Second, there were defensive issues with Chimera this year in this respect. He had the worst plus-minus of any Capitals skater (-10, compared to defenseman Tyler Sloan’s minus-6). Among all Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games, he had the second worst goals against/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.61). Only Mathieu Perreault, a player with his own defensive issues to address, was worse (2.62). He had the worst plus-minus per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (-0.51) of all Caps forwards. Chimera and Jay Beagle were the only Caps forwards to have a differential between plus/minus on ice and plus/minus off ice at 5-on-5 that was greater the -1.00 goal. And given that Chimera generally faced weaker competition than his forward teammates – only Perreault and Eric Fehr faced weaker competition among forwards who played with the Caps all season – there would appear to be defensive issues that needed to be addressed (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

The third thing that characterized his game was an inability to finish. Caps fans might remember Mike Grier, a hard working player who would have many scoring chances of his own making, but who had an inability to finish. Chimera is perhaps a speedier version of Grier. His 6.2 percent shooting percentage was the second worst of his career (5.1 percent with Edmonton in 2003-2004). That might be an odd result in that in his seven previous seasons, Chimera recorded shooting percentages of 15.6, 13.4, and 9.9 percent. In his 39 games with the Caps last season he had a 10.3 percent shooting percentage. His overall shooting percentage of 9.5 percent over his career coming into this season might have had one scratching their head over his finish in this statistic this season.  Overall, though, his numbers sank compared to last season (last season's numbers including those he recorded with Columbus):

Odd Chimera Fact… Plus-1 on the road, minus-11 at Verizon Center.

Game to Remember… March 31, 2011. It never hurts to remind one’s former team what they miss. Jason Chimera did that in grand style in a late regular-season game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. He assisted on the Caps’ first goal, scored in the game’s second minute by John Carlson. After the teams traded goals to get to the end of regulation tied at three goals apiece, Chimera ended it when he, Brooks Laich, and Carlson broke in on Columbus on a three-on-two rush. Carlson carried the puck inside the blue line and held up to feed Brooks Laich coming down the middle. Laich backed off the defense and wristed the puck toward the Columbus net. The puck was deflected by Blue Jacket defenseman (and former Cap) Sami Lepisto onto the stick of Chimera, camped at the right post. Chimera had only to bunt the puck into the open net behind goalie Steve Mason, and the Caps had a 4-3 overtime win.

Game to Forget… February 25, 2011. In a 6-0 rout at the hands of the New York Rangers, Chimera dropped the gloves with Michael Sauer barely two minutes into the game. The Rangers must have found the episode annoying, for they abused the Caps often after that with a pair of goals in each of the three periods. Meanwhile, Chimera played only 9:26, recorded one shot on goal, and had a pair of giveaways in going a minus-2.

Post Season… Not awful, in that he had a pair of goals and a pair of assists in nine games. But his effort in the last of those nine games was rather brutal. In 13 minutes and change, no shots on goal, two giveaways, and a minus-2, part of a team-wide “quick and quiet” exit as the Caps were swept in Game 4 by the Tampa Bay Lightning, 5-3.

In the end, Chimera had an inconsistent season. His scoring was consistent with his career averages in the first half, but dropped some in the second half. His plus-minus was all over the map in his ten-game splits, and the drill-down numbers indicated wider issues with his defense. He showed an inability to finish consistently, and the question there was whether it was a blip (given his history of shooting percentages) or if he didn’t have the softest hands on the squad.

It was a somewhat disappointing year for a player who might have been slotted as a solid third liner when the season was dawning, but one who was getting fourth-line minutes (except for the odd turn on the power play) as the season was winding down. It seemed as if there were just too many imperfections across his game this past season to justify a bigger role.

Grade: C-

(Photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Matt Bradley

Matt Bradley

Theme: “Slump? I ain’t in no slump; I just ain’t hitting.”

-- Yogi Berra

Matt Bradley spent the first five years of his tenure with the Caps as an “energy” forward. That’s the short form version of a forward who hits, checks, has the occasional fight, and chips in a point or two here or there. A momentum-changer. You could argue that Bradley has fulfilled the “energy” part of the description – you would be hard pressed to find a player who seems to care less about his well-being in service to giving his team an edge. But momentum-changer…well.

The odd thing about Bradley’s tenure with the Caps is the up and down nature of it. His first, third, and fifth years were marked by an average of 76 games player per year and a line of 9-12-21, even. In his even years, though, he averaged 69 games played and a line of 5-7-12, minus-3. The 2010-2011 season being year six in his stay in DC, one might have foreseen what was to come. It was not a great year. Bradley finished 4-7-11, minus-3, in 61 games played, and he missed 19 games to injuries (lower body injury, broken finger).

It’s hard to say if the broken finger sustained against New Jersey on December 21st was the pivotal point in Bradley’s season, numbers-wise, but it certainly marks a dividing line in his production…

Bradley had an especially productive second ten-game split, recording two goals and four assists, while posting a plus-2. He skidded some after that with a goal and two assists over 14 games in his next two splits, during which he sustained the broken finger. After missing 14 games, Bradley returned and went almost silent in his last 32 games, going 1-1-2, minus-6. The drop in production came despite his getting reliable minutes. Over his first 26 games before the injured finger, he skated fewer than ten minutes 13 times (four of those involved fights, which would have depressed his ice time, and in two others he was injured). He skated fewer than ten minutes only eight times in his last 32 games (only one of those included a fight that would have reduced his available minutes).

Another area in which Bradley came up short was in game-winning goals. In 2009-2010 Bradley had five such markers, tied for second on the team with Alexander Semin and Mike Knuble. In 2010-2011 he had none. One could argue that in 2009-2010 he had almost as many game-winners (five) as he had in his entire career to that point (seven in 492 games), but it is also an indicator of how much his production dropped off.

One thing Bradley has developed a reputation for is a certain fearlessness when it came to engaging in fisticuffs. Although not a heavyweight by NHL standards, he wasn’t shy about whom he took on. In 2010-2011 he was involved in ten bouts, and it is worth noting that the Caps were 7-3-0 in games in which he earned a fighting major. It is also worth noting that despite the Caps signing a true heavyweight in D.J. King to fill that role, and signing Matt Hendricks, who like Bradley was not shy about dropping the gloves with anyone who offended his sensibilities, Bradley had twice as many fights (ten) as he had in 2009-2010 (five), in which the Caps had a record of 3-1-1 (and this does not include the fighting major he drew but was not charged with when the Flyers’ Daniel Carcillo jumped him in an 8-2 win). It isn’t an easy way to make a living, but Bradley continued to make himself heard (or at least felt) in this area.

Odd Bradley Fact… Among all Caps forwards appearing in at least 20 games, Bradley faced the stiffest competition in 2010-2011 at 5-on-5; he also suffered the weakest quality of teammates (from behindthenet.ca).

Game to Remember… November 17, 2010. In a 4-2 win over Buffalo, Bradley notched a goal and an assist (his only two-point game of the season), and he led the team with five shots on goal (his best for the season). His assist came on what would be the game-winning goal scored by David Steckel.

Game to Forget… December 11, 2010. Bradley was on his first shift of the night when the Colorado Avalanche scored their first goal of the evening. He was on the ice for his last shift of the first period when Colorado scored again to break a 1-1 tie just before the first intermission. After the Avs posted a power play goal midway through the second period, Bradley skated one abbreviated shift (13 seconds) with nothing eventful, but in his next shift dropped the gloves with Cody McLeod. It did not have as much of the effect as hoped for, as the Caps dropped a 3-2 decision, with Bradley finishing minus-2 (his only minus-2 of the season), a five minute penalty for fighting, and only 6:40 in total ice time.

Post Season… Almost nothing to speak of. No points, minus-3. He was by no means alone in that sparse output, but then again, it was part of the problem, too.

In the end, Bradley suffered a significant drop in his basic numbers. He is not asked to be a critical contributor on offense, but getting so much less from him on offense – and almost nothing in the season’s last 32 games – contributed to the weakness the Caps were burdened with on the bottom two forward lines, which goes a long way in reflecting the problems the Caps had on offense in the second half of the season.

Bradley is now a free agent, and his return hinges on at least a couple of factors. First, does the team think that whatever intangibles he brings merits an offer that approximates what he made this past season ($1.0 million)? Second, do the Caps think they can get similar contributions more cheaply, say, from a player such as Jay Beagle, who is signed for considerably less than Bradley made this past season? Bradley does not have to be “The Professor” to figure out that his tenure with the Caps is on shaky ground. And that is unfortunate, because he has been a player who has offered himself up to do what he can for the club to win. You just wonder if perhaps having just turned 33, if 2010-2011 wasn’t just a slump, that the wear and tear have left the Caps with looking to go younger and Bradley with the Caps in his rear view mirror.

Grade: C+

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Jay Beagle

Jay Beagle

Theme: “Have faith and pursue the unknown end.”
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes

It might surprise more than one Caps fan to know that Jay Beagle played in 31 games this past season; 30 of the last 50 regular season games, in fact. He did most of his work in the middle of the season, playing in 21 of 22 games between December 15th and February 6th. The Caps were 10-4-7 in those games.

The 2010-2011 season was one more step on Beagle’s patient climb up the hockey ladder. Two years at Alaska-Anchorage in the Western Collegiate Hockey Association, part of a season with the Idaho Steelheads in the ECHL, three seasons with the Hershey Bears, two of which included short stints with the Caps. This season, Beagle split his time roughly in half between Hershey (34 games) and Washington (31 games). He set career bests in games, goals (two), points (three), shots, and average ice time. But what stands out, if anything, is that both of his goals this past season were game winners – December 21st against New Jersey, and again on December 28th against Montreal. Happy Holidays. His overall numbers looked like this…

Drilling down into Beagle’s numbers, there wasn’t much to get excited about. His 1.48 goals for/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was by far the lowest on the team for forwards playing in at least 20 games. Even though his 1.90 goals against in such situations was respectable enough, the lack of offensive contributions meant that his plus/minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was among the worst on the teams’ forward cohort (-0.42, third worst). And the difference between his plus/minus on ice and that off ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (-1.58) was worst among Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games (numbers from behindthenet.ca). Still, his numbers were generally an improvement upon last season…

Odd Beagle Fact… In 35:43 of total shorthanded ice time, Beagle was on the ice for one goal. His was the fewest goals against per 60 minutes of shorthanded ice time of any Caps forward playing in at least 20 games and recording at least ten minutes of total shorthanded ice time for the season.

Game to Remember… December 28, 2010. He recorded less than ten minutes of ice time, and he attempted only one shot on goal. But Beagle made that shot attempt count as it got past Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price to open the scoring in a 3-0 Caps win in the last game before the January 1st Winter Classic game in Pittsburgh.

Game to Forget… January 14, 2011. The Caps got off to a good start against the Vancouver Canucks with a goal in the game’s sixth minute from Matt Hendricks. But less than three minutes later Beagle was on the ice when the Canucks tied the game. He was unable to catch Jannik Hansen circling behind the Caps net and could not prevent Hansen from feeding Alex Edler for the equalizer. Beagle was a victim of bad luck in a way, on what would be the Canuck’s third goal. He was headed off the ice as Jason Chimera had his pocket picked in the neutral zone, leading to a breakaway for Daniel Sedin that put the Canucks up 3-1 on their way to a 4-2 win.

Post Season… Beagle did not dress for any of the nine post-season games played by the Caps.

In the end, Beagle’s play was anonymous in its way. In 31 games he did not record a game better than plus-1 and had only two games in which he was minus-2. He was, for the most part, a player who chewed up ten minutes or so of ice time without much undue hazard to the scoreboard, either for or against. Going forward, though, the question about Beagle might be whether he can assume the “energy” forward position that has been manned by Matt Bradley (our next subject) for the past six seasons in Washington. Bradley is an unrestricted free agent coming off a deal that paid him $1.0 million a year. Beagle is signed through next season with a cap hit of $525,000.

One of the things that haunted the Caps this season was how little production they got from the third and fourth lines. Beagle has contributed about a point every other game in his career in Hershey (129 points in 211 games). Given that Beagle contributed only two goals and three points this season with the Caps, his ticket to a permanent spot on the roster might be proving whether he can at least move the needle closer to the level of production he displayed in Hershey. That is the unknown end Beagle is left to pursue.

Grade: C

(Photo: Lou Capozzola/Getty Images North America)

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mathieu Perreault

Mathieu Perreault

Theme: “The world is full of magical things patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper.”
-- Bertrand Russell

When you were a 177th overall pick in the draft, and you are 5’10” (maybe…), 174 pounds (after the buffet at Golden Corral), you are facing a bit of a climb to get to the National Hockey League, even if you did record 233 points in your last two years of juniors. Sometimes, it is easy to forget how far Mathieu Perreault has come in that climb to the NHL. He got his first taste of the NHL in 2009-2010, when he played in 21 games and recorded four goals and nine points. In 2010-2011 he lingered a bit longer, getting 35 games worth of experience with the Caps and recording seven goals and 14 points.

But with Perreault, the question has become, can he take that last leap to a permanent spot on the Caps’ roster. If you look at his (interrupted) ten-game splits, you can see a problem…

Perreault played in 13 of the Caps first 40 games, going 5-2-7, plus-6. But in the last four splits, he played in 22 games and went 2-5-7, minus-9. Perreault, in what might be an irony for such a prolific scorer in juniors, seems to have trouble finishing. What you can say about him is that he is opportunistic. He led all Caps’ skaters in shooting percentage (17.1 percent) for those Caps skating in a minimum of 20 games. And it might not be flukish, since he recorded a 14.8 percent mark in 2009-2010 in 21 games. He just does not get many shots on goal; fewer SOG on a per game basis (1.17 in 35 games) than did Boyd Gordon (1.28 in 60 games).

There were tantalizing indicators that there is something there. Among Caps forwards who played in at least 20 games, Perreault was second (to Alexander Semin) in goals scored-per-60 minutes at 5-on-5 (behindthenet.ca). He was fourth in points-per-60 minutes in those situations. But by the same token he was a brutal -0.35 in his plus-minus/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, fourth worst on the team among forwards skating in at least 20 games. Considering he faced the second weakest quality of competition among forwards for the Caps (20 games minimum), it is an indicator that he has some defensive deficiencies that need to be addressed if he is to stick with the big club.

Odd Perreault Fact… and this one might win the Christmas ham. If you look at the first game Perreault played after a hiatus – his first game after a call up, a first game after sitting – he was 4-2-6, plus-6 in four games. Over the remainder of his games he was 3-5-8, minus-9 in 31 games.

Game to Remember… December 19, 2010. If you’re going to score your first game-winning goal, make it memorable. The Caps traveled to Ottawa in the midst of an eight-game losing streak, recorded for all the premium viewing public to see on HBO’s series on the Winter Classic. Then, the Caps fell behind the dreadful Ottawa Senators, 2-0, in the first period. Perreault got the Caps started on a comeback by bunting home a rebound from the left post 34 seconds into the second period. After Eric Fehr tied the game less than a minute after that, Perreault scored the game-winner at 6:55 of the second when he stuffed a loose puck in from almost the identical spot on the ice, just off the left post. And if you are wondering, he sat out the Caps’ previous game, so this was another of those “first game back” wonders.

Game to Forget… February 25, 2011. Perreault was on the ice for the first two goals against in a 6-0 loss to the Rangers at Verizon Center. He attempted only one shot in 13:20 of ice time, had a giveaway, and split eight faceoffs and had an otherwise blank score sheet in going minus-2. It was his last game with the Caps for the season, his having been returned to Hershey shortly thereafter.

Post Season… Can’t even say his post season – in Hershey – was especially good. He was 3-3-6 in six games as the Bears fell in the first round.

In the end, Perreault is going to have to show that he can contribute over the long haul, not just in his first game or two after a hiatus when his adrenaline is pumping. And on a team that lacked a certain scoring punch after its eight-game losing streak, there was ample opportunity for a player with an offensive bent to make a mark. Another issue going forward is whether Perreault, given the gap between where he is on faceoffs (45.6 percent in 2010-2011) and defense (see above), would be better suited to winger than to center.

In the small world of Caps Nation optimism, there is the hope that Perreault (age 23) might enjoy the sort of blossoming that a Martin St. Louis enjoyed – didn’t enter the NHL until age 23, didn’t play in more than 50 games in a season until he was 24, didn’t top 50 points until he was almost 29. But that might be comparison by size (St. Louis being a diminutive player in size, like Perreault) rather than skill. As for what Perreault has shown to date, it is merely an indicator that the “magical things” that await him in the NHL will require his wits – and performance – to grow sharper still.

Grade: C+

(photo: John Carlson)

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson

Theme: “Seeing much, suffering much, and studying much, are the three pillars of learning.”
-- Benjamin Disraeli

When Marcus Johansson took the ice for the Caps at the 1:40 mark of the first period in the 2010-2011 season opener against the Atlanta Thrashers, he had not yet played a league game in North America. New country, new ice dimensions, new style. A challenge for anyone in that circumstance, even the 24th overall pick of the 2009 entry draft. It was not a dramatic opening act for the young Swede, who finished the night with no shots on goal, one faceoff win in eight tries, and an otherwise clean score sheet in 13:06 of playing time.

By the time his regular season was finished, though, Johansson played in 69 games, finished sixth among Caps forwards in goals and points, tied for 11th among all NHL rookie forwards in points, and did it all while only being whistled for ten minutes in penalties while logging more than 1,000 minutes of total ice time.

In between, his ten-game splits show a player who climbed the learning curve with more than satisfactory speed:

It is worth noting that Johansson missed nine games (Games 8-16 on the schedule) with a hip flexor injury after hitting a rut at TD Garden against the Boston Bruins on October 21st. Upon returning to the lineup he did most of his statistical damage, compiling a 12-14-26, plus-3 mark in 63 games, including 21 points and a plus-6 in the 2011 portion of the season (covering 43 games).

His season breaks down into its 2010 and 2011 portions cleanly in terms of ice time. In the 2010 portion of the season he topped 14 minutes of ice time only seven times in 26 games. In the 2011 portion of the season, he played in less than 14 minutes only ten times in 43 games.  Just what you would want to see from a rookie learning and mastering each step on the learning ladder.

Although Johansson showed steady improvement in scoring over the course of the season and was given more responsibility (reflected in more ice time) as the season wore on, one area in which he lagged was in faceoffs. He did not win a majority of his faceoffs on a regular basis, as his ten-game splits indicate:

1st 10: 2 times over 50 percent/six games played
2nd 10: 1/3
3rd 10: 1/10
4th 10: 0/7
5th 10: 2/10
6th 10: 5/10
7th 10: 1/10
Last: 0/12

He was especially weak on the road, winning only 37.9 percent of the faceoffs he took, although the one curiosity in this statistic was that he won a majority of the power play faceoffs he took (53.1 percent).  However, not much can be divined from a 32-faceoff sample.

One area in which he did quite well, though, was turnovers. His takeaway-to-giveaway ratio of 1.62 (47 takeaways, 29 giveaways) had him among the leaders in the group of Caps forwards and was not far off the mark of Nicklas Backstrom (1.74) as a benchmark for comparison.

Odd Johansson Fact… Johansson had more goals in losses (seven in 31 losses) than he had in wins (six in 38 wins).

Game to Remember… March 15, 2011. Marcus Johansson was not a part of the Caps team that lost to the Montreal Canadiens in the 2010 playoffs, but in the Caps first visit to Bell Centre since that playoff defeat, Johansson potted two goals, including the game-winner in a 4-2 decision.

Game to Forget… January 18, 2011. Johansson assisted on the Caps’ first goal in their contest against the Philadelphia Flyers, but he was on the ice for all three Flyer goals (finishing minus-2), including the overtime winner as the Flyers took a 3-2 decision at Wells Fargo Center.

Post Season… At a high level, you might say that Johansson held his own in his first NHL post season – 2-4-6, minus-2, in nine games. But take away a 2-0-2, plus-3 effort in Game 4 of the first round series against the Rangers, and he is left with 0-4-4, minus-5 in eight games. Call it a lesson to be learned in the difference in intensity in the post season compared to that of the regular season.

In the end, the takeaway for Johansson is his improvement over the course of the season. That he would be a more productive scorer late was good to see and perhaps surprising in that he did not play more than 45 games in either of his regular season tours with Färjestads BK in the SEL that preceded his first season with the Caps.

It was a solid year for a rookie who might have been pigeonholed as a third or fourth liner getting his feet wet, but who skated frequently with the second line and also received some significant time centering the top line alongside Alex Ovechkin. The faceoff problems made for some lineup juggling that caused Nicklas Backstrom to take more defensive zone faceoffs than a player of his responsibilities might otherwise take. But that it was Backstrom taking those draws – a player who himself struggled with faceoffs in his first couple of years – which suggests that Johansson’s struggles could be short-lived. All in the process of learning the game at the highest level of performance. It should only get better for him.

Grade: B

(Photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Forwards: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks

Theme: “But it ain't about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward; how much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!”

-- Rocky Balboa


Upon completing a four-year career with the St. Cloud State Huskies in the Western Collegiate Hockey Association, Matt Hendricks found himself winding his way through hockey rinks in North America – Milwaukee, Florida, Lowell, Rochester, Hershey, Providence, Erie. At the age of 28, he had four games of NHL experience and might have been destined to spend the remainder of his career going through any number of small towns on the AHL or ECHL tour. But then in 2009, he stuck for 56 games with the Colorado Avalanche, where he put up nine goals and 16 points while getting less than ten minutes a night on the fourth line. By itself, that might not be enough to get much of a look as Hendricks was embarking on unrestricted free agency.

In fact, he didn’t get much of a look. That is, until September 27, 2011, when he signed a free agent deal with the Caps. Maybe it was that he played in 65 games for the 2006-2007 Hershey Bears under current Caps head coach Bruce Boudreau. Maybe it was that in those 56 games with Colorado last year he not only surprised with nine goals in a fourth line role, but also dropped the mitts ten times. Maybe the Caps just needed some more punch and some more “punch” from the bottom half of the forward lines. Matt Hendricks was given a chance for his “Rocky” moment.

In his first 20 games as a Cap, Hendricks went 3-3-6, plus-1, and two of his goals were of the game-winning variety. He also had four scraps, three of them coming in Caps wins. Hendricks showed himself to be a fireplug of a player who could chip in a timely goal or two along the way. His second two ten-game splits were almost as good, scoring-wise (1-4-5), but he found himself more often on the wrong side of even-strength goal scoring (minus-6), a stretch during which he missed a couple of games to an undisclosed injury. He maintained a consistent scoring pace over the next three ten-games splits (four points in each) before dropping a bit at the end. The complete ten-game splits package looks like this:

Getting 25 points (eighth among forwards) from a player taking the ice for eleven minutes and change a night (12th in ice time among forwards who finished the season with the Caps) over 77 games has to qualify as something of a pleasant surprise. He also got a significant amount of penalty killing time (sixth in time-on-ice/60 minutes among forwards who finished the season with the Caps, according to behindthenet.ca), although among forwards with at least 30 seconds of ice time per 60 minutes, he had the worst goals-against/on ice among Caps forwards playing at least 20 games. That problem showed up at even-strength, too. Among forwards who played at least 20 games, he had the third worst goals-against/on ice per 60 minutes.

One thing he led the Caps in was fighting majors. In fact, his 14 such majors tied for 12th in the league, a rather high ranking for a player who at 6’, 208 pounds would not necessarily be thought of as a heavyweight when it came to such things. In the 13 games in which Hendricks incurred a fighting major (he had two fights in the 7-0 loss to the New York Rangers on December 12th), the Caps were 7-5-1. Not sure whether the fighting made a lot of difference in the context of those games, but Hendricks more than displayed a willingness to stand up for teammates and try to change momentum. You use the tools you have.

Odd Hendricks Fact… Sunday being a day of rest, it was the day of the week on which Hendricks averaged his lowest ice time (11:01/game), but it was also the day of the week on which he averaged the most penalty minutes per game (2.1).

Game to Remember… November 14th, 2010. Nicklas Backstrom might have had two goals in a 3-0 win over the Carolina Hurricanes, and Michal Neuvirth might have pitched the shutout, but it was Hendricks who got things going, converting a one-handed pass from David Steckel from the deep slot to give the Caps the lead and Hendricks his first goal as a Cap (his first of three game-winning goals on the season). On the play, not only did Hendricks record his first goal of the season, but Steckel and John Erskine recorded their first assists of the season. Hendricks also played a personal high for the season 16:24 in ice time, chipping in four hits, a takeaway, and a blocked shot.

Game to Forget… December 15, 2010. In what would be the Caps’ seventh straight loss in their December eight-game losing streak, Hendricks played only 7:30 in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Anaheim Ducks. He took only nine shifts in the game, none after the 6:42 mark of the third period. He had almost a minute less in even-strength ice time than call-up Andrew Gordon. The key word of that night might have been, like it was for a lot of Caps, “frustration.”

Post Season… Perhaps it was the stakes, perhaps the competition, but Hendricks’ ice time fell off considerably in the playoffs. Only Matt Bradley averaged less than the 9:08 Hendricks skated among forwards. And his production either suffered as a result or didn’t merit more time, depending on whether you’re a chicken or egg fan. He had no points, was a minus-2, and had only one shot on goal over the seven games in which he played, the last one of which he skated only 4:24.

In the end, Hendricks probably gave the Caps a little more than one might have expected from a late training-camp free agent signing. Twenty-five points, 14 fights, and a lot of nicks and bruises (caught in vivid living color on the HBO 24/7 special on the run-up to the Winter Classic). Watching him on a night-to-night basis calls to mind a quote from the movie, “The Untouchables,” uttered by Al Capone…

“I'm gonna tell you something. Somebody messes with me, I'm gonna mess with with him. Somebody steals from me, I'm gonna say you stole. Not talk to him for spitting on the sidewalk. Understand? Now, I have done nothing to harm these people but they are angered with me, so what do they do, doctor up some income tax, for which they have no case. To speak to me like me, no, to harass a peaceful man. I pray to god if I ever had a grievance I'd have a little more self respect. One more thing, you have an all out prize fight, you wait until the fight is over, one guy is left standing. And that's how you know who won.”

Hendricks might not have won them all, and he might have been knocked down from time to time, but he kept moving forward.

Grade: B

A Tale of Two Stories

“Capitals fans might as well stop with the argument that Ovechkin is a better player; sure he is a bigger scorer and more entertaining player. But he can't get his team past [Sidney] Crosby's teams and they're undeniable rivals and will be for the length of their careers. Right now, Ovechkin would need a telescope to see Crosby, who's that far ahead in this race.”

-- Michael Wilbon; “World Wide Wilbon (Washington Post)”; March 1, 2010

“We can barely even enjoy one of the closest and more entertaining Finals series ever played, for the need to decide LeBron's place in the universe based off something that happens when he's 26 years old. As we flip-flop on everything we believe about Dirk [Nowitski], is there no irony that the same people find it necessary to come to these conclusions about LeBron?”

-- Michael Wilbon; ESPN.com; June 12, 2011

Well, what a difference 15 months makes. In March 2010, Michael Wilbon pronounced Sidney Crosby “far ahead in this race” to be the National Hockey League’s top player. This conclusion was reached largely on the basis of Crosby’s teams having won a Stanley Cup and an Olympic gold medal at the expense of Ovechkin’s teams.

Yet Sunday night, in the wake of LeBron James’ failure to deliver on his first opportunity to deliver on a promise to win multiple National Basketball Association championships in Miami, the same author preaches patience, that conclusions as to a player’s “place in the universe” cannot be based on something that happens when he is 26 years old.

Did we mention that Ovechkin isn’t yet 26 years old?

Or that James just completed his eighth year in the NBA (Ovechkin finished his sixth season in the NHL)?

Truth be told, James and Ovechkin had rather remarkable similarities in their playoff performances before this season. In five post-season years in Cleveland, James failed to score an average of 28 points a game only once, and twice he averaged over 30 points a game in a post-season tournament. Only once in five post seasons did he average less than eight rebounds a game… barely. Only once did he average less than seven assists a game… not by much. But while he was an overpowering physical force, he was also pretty much all the Cleveland Cavaliers had for much of those five years going into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Ovechkin – including this season – has yet to average less than a point a game in any of the four post season Stanley Cup tournaments in which he has participated. His 25 goals and 25 assists in 37 career playoff games works out to an amazing 55-55-110 82-game pace, better than his career regular season 82-game pace (52-54-106). And insofar as playoff disappointment is concerned (and there has been plenty), the Caps have fallen short more as a result of other players not stepping up. Hockey – a sport that does not lend itself quite so much to the cult of personality, precisely because it’s best players only see the ice for perhaps more than a third of the available ice time – is more dependent than basketball on the whole than any one of its parts.

But the point here is a question. How is it that in one case we can conclude to a certainty that “Player A is better than Player B,” and in the other conclude that, well… we can’t conclude anything?

It is even more confounding given James’ disappearing act in the Finals. In the last three games of the series against the Dallas Mavericks, he averaged just over 15 points a game (almost ten points a game below his average to that point in the post season). After having already played in 89 career post season games, one might not have expected a player of his skill – even one “only” 26 years old – to go almost invisible.

You could say – to a point – that the same head-scratching took place in Ovechkin’s post season this year, when he followed up a 3-3-6 series against the New York Rangers with a 2-2-4 effort against Tampa Bay in four games, which started off with a disappointing effort in Game 1 (no points, only two shots on goal) as the Caps fell behind the eight-ball, never to recover.

The context of Wilbon’s critique of Ovechkin was his surly behavior off the ice in Vancouver. But he seems to have put that episode behind him. There weren’t any published reports of similar behavior this year, and even his on-ice behavior (which earned him two suspensions for hits outside the rules in 2009-2010) weren’t repeated. We are left with Ovechkin having to find Sidney Crosby far in the distance in the race to be the NHL’s top player. And we are left with James, for whom patience must be practiced because despite the fact that he now has 627 regular season and 92 playoff games under his belt, he is only 26 years old.

Our take is different. In this play, Dirk Nowitski (who will turn 33 next week and whose team defeated James’ Miami Heat last night for the NBA title) is the NBA’s version of “Steve Yzerman” – a player who accumulated a fair resume of numbers without a title to show for it until late in his career. As if mere patience was its own reward, that James, too, merely needs time and nurturing before that title is his.

Well, for every Nowitski or an Yzerman, there are any number of players who had talent good enough to come close early in their careers, only to fail to take that last step to a title as the years went by. In the NBA, the all-time talents – Russell, Jordan, Johnson, Bird, Abdul-Jabbar among contemporary elites – win their first titles early. Only Jordan among that group won his first when he was older than James is now (he was 27). The same with hockey. We have made the point that Steve Yzerman is the exception to the rule, that the elites in the game’s history win their first titles early in their careers.

Wilbon wrote in March 2010, “The worst thing Ovechkin can have around town is too many apologists.” We understand that the comment was directed at Ovechkin’s behavior (although James’ message to fans in the aftermath of his team’s loss showed a certain churlishness of his own). But if the Caps ability to win championships is the issue, there is a case to be made for that statement. By the same token, that same author said of James, “coming to the conclusion that LeBron is doomed to some ring of hellish failure is, well, stupid.” Looks like a bit of an apology to these eyes.

The fact is, both of these players are in the prime of their careers, but if history is a guide, they might be seeing the window closing on their respective chances to win that first title, at least in their ability to influence that result commensurate with the talents they possess today. As that window closes, the titles they win, if any, would likely be a product of the teams around them, not a product of those considerable abilities they now possess. It was the case for Nowitski (and another player to whom James is compared by Wilbon – the NFL’s John Elway). It would seem increasingly likely the case for Ovechkin, or James for that matter.

But the point here isn’t to pile on to James or to be one of those “apologists” for Ovechkin. The point is that they are a pair of 20-somethings who have been to the summit of their sport on a personal level, yet have known little but disappointment in their teams’ performance. It would seem that an allowance for one – or a criticism of one – is applicable to the other. But really, does it matter? Because for both, the clock is ticking, perhaps louder than either of them realize.