A NO-point night -- Game 46: Hurricanes 3 - Capitals 0

Well, they played them even at even strength.

Unfortunately for the Washington Capitals, there is also the matter of special teams play in the sport of hockey, and they lost that battle – and last night’s game – to the Carolina Hurricanes, 3-0, in Raleigh.

Two power play goals allowed; a shorthanded goal allowed, and only 23 of their own shots on goal. When added to the fact that they lost their 14th game in 22 tries on the road, the Caps had on display all the things that could keep them out of the playoffs. It had the added ingredients of sloppy play in their own end with the puck (John Carlson getting picked by Eric Staal leading to Jussi Jokinen’s shorthanded goal) and a propensity for allowing goals in the last minute of periods (twice, once in the second period and once in the third period).

You could call this a team effort in suckitude.

Other stuff:

-- What is happening to John Carlson? It is hard to look at one play and paint a complete picture of a player from it, but that giveaway (actually scored as a takeaway by Eric Staal, but still) can’t happen there. It had all the look of simply not paying attention, of being too lackadaisical with the puck, expecting that no one would challenge him. That’s “January” thinking, not “playoff” thinking. Think a player can just flip a switch from one to the other?

-- OK, you could say that on the second Jokinen goal that there was some “puck luck” involved, the puck hitting a stick and falling – figuratively – into Jokinen’s lap for a wide open look at an open net. That would be one way to look at it. Here is another way…

Tim Brent throws the puck from the side wall to the middle toward teammate Jay Harrison. The Caps’ Mike Knuble tries to intervene from the other side, but cannot get to the puck before Harrison receives the pass...

Harrison steps around Knuble and steps into open space as Jason Chimera skates past. Harrison now has a clear path forward to the net, two Caps behind the play...on a penalty kill...

Dmitry Orlov leaves his man to try and disrupt a shooting attempt. Harrison has open space and shoots, Jokinen going to the net behind Karl Alzner...

The puck hits Orlov’s stick and is deflected into the air, but Jokinen is now the only player in a position to react to that event, as he is at the top of the crease, only Alzner within ten feet of him and on the wrong side of the play as it is unfolding...

Alzner cannot get to Jokinen as Vokoun tries to scramble into position after the deflection, but Jokinen now has the puck on his stick. This play can end only one way. If you looked at the last couple of seconds of it you might conclude it was misfortune, a deflection off a stick that led to a loose puck. But the Caps appeared to put themselves in a poor position to defend against such an occurrence by all that happened before those last moments...

-- Alex Ovechkin had two shot attempts in the first 40 minutes – one was blocked by Zac Dalpe at 8:46 of the first period, the other was a shot on goal from 43 feet at 4:31 of the second period. Alexander Semin had two shots on goal – one at 1:03 of the first period, the other at 4:24 of the first period, then…nothing. With Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green out, the Caps need more engagement from these two in the offensive zone.

-- Eric Staal was a plus-1. It was only his ninth “plus” game all season.

-- Odd statistic… there were 14 offensive zone faceoffs. Marcus Johansson took seven of them, not unexpected (or undesired) since he was centering Alex Ovechkin and Troy Brouwer on the first line. But he won just two of them.

-- Three power plays, one shot, that coming from a defenseman. Carolina had three shots while shorthanded. Six minutes of “ugh.”

-- The Caps and the Hurricanes were relatively close in even-strength shots on goal (26-22, Carolina). Carolina outshot the Caps on special teams, 7-1.

-- Zac Dalpe, a player who until last night had recorded only 13 shots on goal in 13 games, had four shots on goal 13 minutes. That number was more than any Capital. Jiri Tlusty had eight attempts in less than 17 minutes of ice time. That was two more than any Capital.

-- The Caps recorded 11 shots on goal in the third period of last Sunday’s 2-1 win over the Hurricanes. They have gone nine straight periods without recording double digits in shots on goal. The have reached double digits in shots on goal in only one of the last 21 periods of hockey they have played.

In the end, it is said that goaltending is the most important ingredient in winning a championship. That is true in large part because a championship team has to have solid goaltending all the time and the capacity for that goaltending to steal a game here and there. The Caps have had that kind of goaltending lately, at least the solid part. Last night, Tomas Vokoun stopped 30 of 33 shots, and it would be hard to fault him much on any of the three Carolina goals. In fact, Caps’ goalies combined have allowed more than three goals in a game only three times in the last 17 games and have played to a combined save percentage of .933 since a 5-1 loss to Philadelphia on December 13th. And this level of goaltending is coming despite the Caps averaging only 22.8 shots per game since that loss to the Flyers.

One can talk schemes and coaches and stats all one wants. But at some point it boils down to a simple case of heart and pride, and that’s on the players. In January the Caps are averaging 1.89 goals per game. They are getting little from their skaters, spiraling into a situation in the last three games in which if their goaltenders don’t pitch a shutout, they don’t win.

That the Caps are still leading the Southeast Division is something of a marvel, and it makes one wonder if the winner of this division won’t finish the season with fewer standings points than the eighth place finisher in the Eastern Conference.

It’s a good thing that the Southeast Division this season really is turning into the “Southleast” Division.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 46: Capitals at Hurricanes, January 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Weren’t we just here last Sunday with a Caps-‘Canes game?

“Not on yer life, cuz! We’re in Ca-rol-LI-na! Yee-haw! NASCAR, barbecue, and betcha didn’t know this, cuz…”

Oh, please, go on, Cheerless. You’re on a roll.

“There are more breweries per capita over in Ayshvull…”

You mean, “Ashville?”

Yeah, whut I said, ‘Aysh-vull’… there’s more breweries there per capita than any city in the Yoo-nited States. Hey, is that why they call it ‘per CAP-ita? Like a bottle cap?”

Uh, no.

“Oh, maybe they like cans better.”

Yeah…go with that.

Whether you prefer your adult beverages in a glass or an aluminum container, stock up and get ready for an always entertaining Southeast Division matchup (and we can’t wait until that day when we don’t have to say that anymore…please guys, realign!) between the Washington Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes. The Caps and ‘Canes have completed half of the season series with the Caps having won all three games to date.

When the teams met last Sunday in Washington, Carolina was having trouble in most statistical categories – 15th in scoring, 28th in defense, 27th in 5-on-5 play, 20th on the power play, 27th in penalty killing. It added up to a 4th place spot in the Southeast Division and a 13th place ranking in the Eastern Conference. The Caps squeezed out a 2-1 decision against Carolina that was probably closer than the relative statistical positions of the teams would have suggested. And maybe it is fortunate that Carolina has had to take the ice only once since dropping that 2-1 decision to the Caps last Sunday. They lost to Pittsburgh in a trick shot competition, 2-1, on Tuesday. What that loss means, when coupled with their relative inaction this week, is that they have sunk a bit further in the number rankings:

(click on pic for larger image)

And with just that one loss, even with the extra-time point, the Hurricanes find themselves at the bottom of the Eastern Conference as action is about to begin on Thursday night. They are in no danger of being overtaken by Columbus any time soon, but they have Anaheim and Edmonton breathing down their necks for 27th place in the league.

1. When last we wrote of the Hurricanes, we noted that thirteen times the Hurricanes trailed after one period; twelve times they lost in regulation time. That has not changed. But instead of there being two teams with a worse record (Anaheim and Phoenix), now there are three – add Buffalo to that group. Baby steps.

2. Last Sunday, Carolina had the worst record in the league when being outshot by their opponent (6-15-4). Now it is 6-15-5, and they still have the worst record in the league.

3. When Carolina took the ice against the Caps last weekend, Eric Staal was last among 813 skaters in plus-minus (minus-21). Well, he is still last (minus-22), but now it is of 816 skaters. He is the only skater worse than minus-20. He has been on the ice for more goals against (65) than any other league forward, and it’s not close for second (Shawn Horcoff: 53).

4. Carolina actually saw their goals allowed average in the third period drop since taking the ice on Sunday, from 1.41 to 1.38. The gap between that number and Tuukka Rask’s GAA in Boston (which was 1.59 last Sunday) is widening (Rask is now at 1.61).

5. Every Carolina defenseman having played in at least 20 games has been on the ice for more goals than games played, except for Jaroslav Spacek. Too bad that his record includes his time with Montreal, and besides, he’s been out with a head injury and is questionable for this game.

1. Only seven defensemen have more assists on the road than Dennis Wideman (11).

2. Think the Caps don’t miss Nickas Backstrom? Only one forward (Claude Giroux: 16) has more power play assists than Backstrom (15). Then again, since he left the lineup the Caps are 4-for-18 on the power play (22.2 percent, compared to 19.5 percent for the season). Still, all things considered, we’d rather have him back.

3. Half of Jason Chimera’s 14 goals have come against Southeast Division opponents. One of them came against the Hurricanes (opening night).

4. Alexander Semin is seventh among all NHL forwards in minor penalties taken, but he has only one taken in his last 11 games.

5. Only three teams have allowed more power play goals on the road than the 19 allowed by the Caps (Carolina, Columbus, and Toronto).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Alexei Ponikarovsky

Who? Well, the guy who happens to have only seven goals, but four of them have come on the power play – tied for the team lead. He has nine goals in 28 career games against the Caps. None of them have come against the Caps this season. Moreover, he does not have a goal in his last 16 games.

Washington: John Carlson

Only nine defensemen in the league have been on the ice for more goals against than John Carlson. One of them happens to be Chicago’s Duncan Keith, so there is that. Still, it is not a list on which one hopes to rank highly. He had a stretch of five games (December 30 – January 9) in which he had no points and was a minus-seven. Since then he is 0-1-1, plus-1. Hopefully, he is working himself out of the bit of a funk in which he has found himself in the defensive zone.

Keys:

1. Short Sell. Only four teams in the league have had to skate off fewer shorthanded situations at home than Carolina. Carolina is 20th in the league in home penalty killing. The Caps do not have the most efficient road power play (14.3 percent/tied for 20th), but forcing Carolina into more shorthanded situations could pay dividends.

2. Familiarity Breeds…Complacency. The Caps are three-for-three against the Hurricanes this season, and Carolina is at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. With the Penguins waiting for the Caps on Sunday in Pittsburgh, there is the threat of the Caps taking this team and this game lightly. If there is a team that really cannot afford to take anyone lightly, it is the Caps.

3. Score first. In the last five games, the Caps scored first four times. They won four times. In the other one, they were shut out. This is not a hard game to figure out in terms of the benefits of scoring first.

In the end, there is a big neon flashing sign saying “DON’T LOOK AHEAD” concerning this game. The Caps have Pittsburgh on Sunday, then Boston on Tuesday. This is the kind of game made for the phrase, “take ‘em one at a time.” As for this one…

Capitals 3 – Hurricanes 1

A Tale of an Opportunity

In 2009-2010 the Washington Capitals were the most entertaining team in the National Hockey League. They were averaging 3.82 goals a game, more than half a goal a game more than their closest pursuer in the scoring rankings (Vancouver: 3.27). They were beating up opponents along the way, the only team in the league that scored more than a goal a game, on average, more than their opponents.

But amidst all this entertainment, the hockey intelligentsia were proclaiming, “yes, but the Caps can’t (or don’t) play defense; they will fail in the playoffs.” And when the Caps did, in fact, fail in the playoffs, the hockey intelligentsia was validated. The Caps learned their lesson, but not after having a refresher course in pain the following season in the form of a December eight-game losing streak.

The Caps decided in the midst of that eight-game losing streak last season that the blueprint for success had to be tossed out and replaced by a new one, a plan that emphasized more focus in the defensive zone, trapping in the neutral zone, and restraint in the offensive zone to avoid turnovers. No more flying the zone before you get possession, no more daring stretch passes, no more pressing the attack.

And it worked…kinda. The Caps went 30-11-7 after that losing streak and after first installing their new “defense first” approach. When they defeated the New York Rangers in the first round of the 2011 playoffs, it appeared that the change was further validated. The hockey intelligentsia looked on and smiled. And then it all blew up when the Caps were swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning and the fearsome (if sleep-inducing) 1-3-1 defense. The hockey intelligentsia clucked that the Caps didn’t have the defense or the goaltending to go deeper (the Caps allowed 16 goals to the Lightning in the four-game sweep).

The Caps took their lessons to heart in the off-season, adding grit and hockey toughness in players like Joel Ward and Jeff Halpern and Troy Brouwer. They added a defenseman who knew how to play the game (as in, “won’t go jumping up in the offensive end”) in Roman Hamrlik. They got an elite goalie at a discount.

The Caps went out to a 7-0-0 start, and folks might have been thinking, “see? It was worth it to change styles.” Then, the Caps record fell through the floor. They went 5-9-1 in their next 15 games, and it got their coach fired. They went 12-9-1 in their first 22 games under the new coach, the same record the old coach started the season with, and folks might have been thinking…”what the #@$%?”

And now, we’re all frustrated as Caps fans. But it got us to thinking… did the Caps abandon that hell-bent-for-leather style too soon? Humor us.

Let’s look at that Caps team that was defeated by Montreal in the 2010 playoffs. Let’s look at the defensive side of the roster. First, the four defensemen who played in all seven games against Montreal – John Carlson, Mike Green, Joe Corvo, and Jeff Schultz. Carlson had so few games played in the regular season, he would qualify for rookie of the year selection the following season. Green was finishing up his fourth full season. Corvo was, well…ugh. And Schultz was coming off a freakish plus-50 season in which he put up 23 points. You get to that plus-50, perhaps, by being dependable at the defensive end while your teammates are having fun at the other.

Then there is the rest of the group that dressed. Tom Poti played in six games (suffering a gruesome eye injury in Game 6 that kept him out of Game 7). He was a player of considerable experience and had a reputation of being competent at both ends of the rink (if he had played that Game 7 and the Caps won, would there ever have been a change in philosophy?...hold that thought). On the other hand, there was Shaone Morrisonn. A player of modest skill, but let’s face it. He now toils for Rochester in the AHL and cannot crack the Buffalo Sabres lineup. Tyler Sloan played in two games and would never be thought of as a top-four (or top-six, seeing as how he is playing in Milwaukee of the AHL) defenseman. Karl Alzner (with barely 50 games of experience) played one game – Game 7 in Poti’s place – as a call-up.

The goalies? For the second straight year, the Caps started with Jose Thoedore, then had to give way to Semyon Varlamov when Theodore faltered. In the 2010 playoffs, Varlamov was the starting goalie for the last six games of the series against Montreal with a total of 32 games of NHL regular season and 13 games of playoff game experience.

Here we had a defense lacking in experience in a Game 7 (Carlson, Alzner), a defenseman entering who might be entering his prime (Green), a competent if unexciting stay-at-home defenseman with fewer than 250 games of experience (Schultz), a current minor leaguer (Morrisonn), and a defenseman for whom “defense” did not seem to apply (Corvo). It should never have come to that in a Game 7, but that was the hand dealt, and Montreal ended the night with better cards.

In retrospect, perhaps the Caps’ wide open style might not have been doomed for lack of sufficient detail to defense. Perhaps it was abandoned before the defense could mature and catch up to the offense, or at least have the ability from added experience to bar the door when the Caps weren’t wreaking havoc in the other end. Look at the John Carlson and Karl Alzner of today, with perhaps a Dmitry Orlov, and let’s even throw in a healthy Mike Green (like we said, humor us). Heck, swap out the 2010 Corvo model for the 2012 Alzner edition. A Jeff Schultz with another 100 games of experience. If that defense had been there in 2010 with the level of skill they now have (yes, we realized Orlov would not have been there), would that Montreal series have ended differently? Would there have even been a Game 6 in which a Tom Poti could get hurt? And more to the point, would the Caps today be the juggernaut with the plus-68 goal differential that folks talk about instead of the Boston Bruins, and with Bruce Boudreau still at the helm?

Perhaps it was a time and case of opportunity knocking, and the Caps opened the door to an exciting brand of hockey, only to close it too soon.

We shall never know.

What's a Captain to Do?...shoot

It is April 18, 2006, and the Washington Capitals have just closed the book on Year 1 after the lockout with a 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. For the Caps it would be a year that measured in standings would have to be deemed “unsuccessful.” The win over the Lightning raised the Caps’ record to 29-41-12 – 70 points. They were last in the Southeast Division, 14th in the Eastern Conference. If the 15th-ranked Pittsburgh Penguins were the floor of the conference, the Caps were the carpet padding just above them.

But standings was but one way to look at the season. The Caps and their fans had the opportunity to witness the introduction of one of the most remarkable rookies in recent NHL history. Alex Ovechkin did not have a goal in that 82nd game of the season, but he did have 52 of them in the first 81 games, good for third among all NHLers and 13 more than the next highest goal total for a rookie (Sidney Crosby).

Although the Capitals had the player who would win the Calder Trophy as the league’s best rookie in their fold, there was not a lot of talent surrounding him. His 52 goals in 2005-2006 constituted 22.6 percent of the 230 goals scored by the team that season. And, his 425 shots on goal was 17.3 percent of all the shots taken by the Caps that season. Ovechkin was a cornerstone to build around, but building was what was necessary. There was not enough around him to either take the pressure of scoring off him or to move the Caps’ scoring needle past 23rd place in scoring in that 2005-2006 season.

Ovechkin scored 46 goals the following year, 19.7 percent of the 234 scored by the Caps, and his 392 shots on goal was 17.1 percent of the 2,296 shots taken by the team in 2006-2007. But the Caps finished once more with 70 standings points and again in 14th place in the Eastern Conference. Clearly, it was what was going to be built around Ovechkin that would be the key to the Caps joining the elite in the NHL.

The following year, Ovechkin had his season for the ages – 65 goals, the most by a left wing in NHL history. The 65 goals was 27.3 percent of the 238 goals scored by the team. In a perverse sort of way, it was a step back for the team, even though they made the playoffs with a win in Game 82 of the season. Ovechkin’s goal total jumped by 16 from the average of his first two seasons, but the team’s goal total – 238 – was only an improvement of eight goals over the total the Caps scored in Ovechkin’s rookie year.

But there was the promise of talent starting to catch up. Alexander Semin scored 26 goals. That was a drop from his 38-goal total the previous season, but he played in 14 fewer games, too. His 0.41 goals/game projected to a 34-goal season if healthy. Brooks Laich recorded his first 20-goal season, the 21 goals he had being a 13-goal jump from his previous season. Mike Green had 18 goals, a big leap from the two goals he had in 70 games in 2006-2007. And there was Nicklas Backstrom chipping in 14 goals as a rookie and Tomas Fleischmann getting ten in his first full season with the Caps.

But that was the promise. There was also the matter of the veterans; Viktor Kozlov had 16 goals. Michael Nylander had 11. If the Caps could realize improvement among those young players and surround them with veterans who could reliably contribute scoring, then the team would improve even as Alex Ovechkin’s goal numbers might drop. In fact, you might almost say that Ovechkin’s numbers had to drop for the Caps to take the next leap. Stanley Cup winners didn’t have 55-60 goal scorers leading their teams:

2008: Henrik Zetterberg – 43
2007: Teemu Selanne – 48
2006: Eric Staal – 45
2004: Martin St. Louis – 38
2003: Patrik Elias – 28

What’s more, those goal scoring leaders had wingmen. Zetterberg had Pavel Datsyuk scoring 31 goals and three other teammates with at least 20. Selanne had four teammates scoring between 25 and 30 goals. Staal had three teammates with 30 or more. The three champions since the lockout to that point had even more support – Detroit had ten players with at least 10 goals. Anaheim had 11, and Carolina had nine in their championship seasons.

One could expect that Alex Ovechkin could and would be the straw that stirred the drink, but that drink was going to have to have some more ingredients. And that leaves us with this edition of the Washington Capitals and the question of whether that team has grown up and been built up around Ovechkin to provide the balance and support to accommodate a reduction in Ovechkin’s goal totals as a welcome result if the team could win.

How is this team doing? Through 45 games, the Caps have scored 127 goals (not including trick shots). That is a pace for 231 goals, a number almost identical to that of the team in Ovechkin’s rookie season (230). In that sense, the team is more balanced than those of Ovechkin’s early days. At the moment, Ovechkin is on a pace to score 35 goals, a total that would be 15.2 percent of the club’s projected total of 231. And, remembering the experience of the Stanley Cup winners in Ovechkin’s early days, he has support…maybe.

If you look at the Caps’ goal scoring to date, four of Ovechkin’s teammates are on a path to 20-plus goals, but only if you make certain assumptions about and avert your eyes from the history of some of those players. For example. Nicklas Backstrom has played in 38 games. If he was to dress tomorrow against Carolina and play in every game for the rest of the season, scoring goals at his pace to date, he would finish with 26 goals. He is not going to dress tomorrow and probably will not until after the All-Star break, if then.  Who knows what his production (not to mention his durability) will be when he comes back?

Then there is Jason Chimera. He is on a pace to score 26 goals, based on his 14 goals to date. Well, Chimera has never scored more than 17 goals in a season, and he has one goal in his last 12 games. That is not the profile of a 20-goal scorer in waiting.

Troy Brouwer is also on a pace for 26 goals. He does have a 22-goal season on his resume covering four full seasons before this one. But his pace at the moment might be distorted by his first hat trick in his career. Until that three-goal performance against Tampa Bay, he was on a pace for 22. He is not a sure bet to get to 20.

Alexander Semin is on a pace to score 21 goals if he plays in all of the games remaining in the season. That his projection would be that low is disappointing. He was not with the Caps for that first season with Ovechkin, but in the four seasons that followed he scored goals at a 41-goal per 82 game pace. Even with his injuries over those four seasons he averaged 35 goals a season.

Given the history and injury situation of these players, you might think Semin could do better (he’s healthy and has a history of goal scoring), but the other three?  Iffy.

Then there are the disappointments. Brooks Laich is on a pace to finish the season with 15 goals. If he finishes with that total, it would be his lowest total since the 2006-2007 season (eight). Mike Green is reported to be on a path to rejoin the team in 4-6 weeks after sports hernia surgery, but he has played sparingly in the last two seasons and has only ten games played this season. If he was to return at the beginning of March and play the last 19 games, scoring goals at his pace in the ten he played so far, he would finish with nine. Better than the eight he had last year (in 49 games) but a far cry from the 68 goals he had over a three-season period ending in 2009-2010.

The last piece of this is the addition and/or presence of veteran role players who can provide reliable support. In 2005-2006, that was Brian Willsie recording 19 goals. It was Ben Clymer with 16. On defense it was Bryan Muir with eight and Jamie Heward with seven. Who are those players on this team? Well, by and large, they are not here. Taking the defense first, you could look at Dennis Wideman and his projected 15 goals and think that he does replace those 15 goals of Muir and Heward. But that is the “all the eggs in one basket” problem. Roman Hamrlik is on a pace for two goals, which would be a career low. He had three when he was a 19-year old in Tampa Bay in 1993-1994.

Then there are the forwards. Who replaces those 35 goals from a Brian Willsie and a Ben Clymer? You cannot find those forwards on this roster. Joel Ward is on a pace for nine goals. Jeff Halpern is on a pace for six; Mike Knuble for five.

You could fry millions of brain cells debating in your own mind whether this team was not built effectively or if it has not been utilized effectively. But the incontrovertible fact is that if you were expecting that Alex Ovechkin would see his goal totals drop while those of his teammates rose, the result being a more balanced scoring attack with a higher total goal total compared to, say, Ovechkin’s rookie year, it has not happened. And looking at the mix of players, production, and projections, it will not.

After 45 games, this team – once the most entertaining in the league – has become a disappointment at the offensive end of the ice. And that brings us back to Ovechkin. His projected 35 goals would be 15.2 percent of the team’s projected total for the year. His projected 304 shots on goal would be only 13.4 percent of the team’s projected shot total, a far cry from the 17.2 percent in his rookie year or the 17.6 percent of the shots the team took in 2007-2008, when he scored 65 goals.

The Caps are in a hard place these days. They are spending too much time in their own zone defending shots and shot attempts, not getting nearly enough zone time or shots in the offensive end of the ice. They are relying too much on their goaltenders to eke out 2-1 or 3-2 wins. They are not getting much goal-scoring support from the 3rd or 4th lines, and one wonders about those players who project to 20 or more goals and whether they will revert to their respective histories and fall off that pace.  The result is their dancing on the margin of playoff eligibility.

Hockey is a team sport. It takes 20 guys to win night in and night out. But having passed the half-way point of the season, one has to wonder if the “support” players around Alex Ovechkin have it in them to ramp up their offensive production. It would be reasonable to have doubts. And that leads one to wonder. It is a good thing for a captain to try to lift all of his teammates, to spread the wealth around. But perhaps there comes a point – perhaps we are at that point – where Ovechkin needs to be a little more assertive (call it “selfish” if you want) and shoot more when he has the opportunity instead of looking for the pass. To be less “Magic Johnson” and more “Michael Jordan.”

Caps Throwback Jersey Record Update

Because you didn't know you wanted to know...

The Caps have 20 road games left, 13 in the throwbacks.

A TWO-point night -- Game 45: Capitals 3 - Canadiens 0

The Washington Capitals might have explained away a loss last night to the Montreal Canadiens as their having to play their third game in four nights. That is, had they lost the game. The Caps used goals from Mathieu Perreault and Marcus Johansson to give the Caps a lead in the first period, then a power play goal from Alex Ovechkin mid-way through the second period, to combine with Michal Neuvirth’s 31-save effort in goal to post a 3-0 win over the Canadiens.

The theme lately has been shots, specifically the Cap’s seeming inability to generate many. Last night, it was an issue again. The Caps managed only 16 shots on goal for the game, the 16th consecutive game in which they did not top 30 shots and the third time in four that they did not have more than 20. But let’s break that down a bit.

In the first 4:41 of the game, a period of time ending with Mathieu Perrault’s goal, the Caps had five shot attempts (two shots, two misses, and a shot blocked) to Montreal’s four attempts (two shots, a miss, and a shot blocked).

In the next 3:42, the period ending with Marcus Johansson’s goal, the Caps had four shot attempts (two shots, two shots blocked), while Montreal had only two shot attempts (two shots on goal).

So, by the time the Caps went out to a 2-0 lead, they had nine shot attempts (four shots, two misses, three shots blocked), the Canadiens had six shot attempts (four shots, one miss, one shot blocked).

Montreal closed the first period with a rush, getting nine shot attempts in the last 11:37 – three shots, three misses, and three shots blocked. The Caps had six attempts – one shot and five misses. In the first half of the second period, the Caps would out-attempt the Canadiens leading up to the third and final goal of the evening (the power play goal from Alex Ovechkin). Washington had ten shot attempts – five shots on goal, three misses, and two shots blocked, while Montreal had seven shot attempts – one shot, three misses, and three shots blocked.

With the Caps having a 3-0 lead at the 10:44 mark of the second period, they had 25 shot attempts – ten shots, five misses, and ten shots blocked. Montreal had 22 shot attempts – eight shots, seven misses, and seven shots blocked.

After that, the Caps went almost silent on shot attempts. In the last 29:16 of the game, Washington had only 11 shot attempts – six shots on goal and five shots blocked. Meanwhile, Montreal would register 50 – that’s right, 50 – shot attempts: 23 shots on goal, nine misses, and 18 shots blocked. Of that number, 36 shot attempts – half of Montreal’s total of 72 attempts – came in the third period.

At 1-0, attempts were 5-4, Caps.

At 2-0, attempts were 9-6, Caps.

At 3-0, attempts were 25-22, Caps.

After that, over the last 29:16 of the game, the attempts were 50-11, Montreal.

Other stuff:

-- Three goals, three different players; nine points, nine different players; two even strength goals, ten different plus-1’s.

-- Montreal’s power play was every bit as bad as the statistics indicated. At first blush, getting nine shots on goal in 11:59 of power play time is not too bad, but having had that 11:59 in power play time, one might have thought they would get a goal just from having so much in-game practice and from wearing Caps penalty killers down.

-- OK, we’ve seen the fight with Rene Bourque. Kudos to Matt Hendricks for being that stand-up guy for the Caps, but it is time to move on. Although we are wondering what might have prompted Joe B. and Craig Laughlin to opine that it would be the first of several instances involving Bourque on the evening. Perhaps the lack of a second (or a third) was the product of too much time being a man down over the rest of the contest, and by the time the third period got started – the Caps having their 3-0 lead – it was a case of “what’s the point, look at the scoreboard.”

-- In the 2007-2008 season, Alex Ovechkin scored his 19th goal on November 30th in Game 26 of the season. He got his 19th of this season last night in Game 45. Different time, different place.

-- The Scott Gomez goal watch continues. It is 45 games without a goal (not including seven playoff games without one). At this point, Gomez Addams would seem a better bet to score first. Scott Gomez had five shots and eight attempts without finding the back of the net.

-- Montreal had as many missed shots as the Caps had shots. They had nine more shots blocked than the Caps had shots (25-16). The Caps had only ten shots at even strength (four on the power play, two shorthanded). We had to get that in.

-- Speaking of which, Roman Hamrlik had one shot on goal for the game… it came while shorthanded.

-- Sixteen faceoffs in the offensive end (nine wins), 24 in the defensive end (14 wins). That is still quite a difference.

-- In killing off seven of seven shorthanded situations, it is the first time the Caps handled that many cleanly since killing of eight of eight on December 13, 2008… against the Canadiens… in Montreal (Semyon Varlamov’s first appearance and first win for the Caps).

-- Mathieu Perreault had 6:09 of ice time last night covering eight shifts. A goal, three hits, and he won all four draws. A nice, tidy night.

In the end, we are still not sure this is a long-term formula for success. “Prevent” defense is said to prevent only one thing – “winning.” Allowing 50 shot attempts in the last half of the game might have been a product of this being the third game in four nights, in which case Michal Neuvirth more than deserves that first start of the night in the NHL. But if this is how the Caps are choosing to play, one wonders if teams like Boston or the Rangers, who lurk on the schedule’s horizon, will be as accommodating as the punchless Canadiens.

Still, the win pushed the Caps back ahead of Florida atop the Southeast Division, by virtue of having more wins in regulation and overtime. And speaking of the latter, maybe is has escaped notice, but the Caps have only one fewer win in regulation and overtime than the Boston Bruins.

They just do it differently.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 45: Capitals at Canadiens, January 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

OK, now it’s the Caps’ turn. After facing four opponents at Verizon Center that had come off games the day before visiting the Caps, Washington gets the tables turned. One night after facing the New York Islanders at Verizon Center, the Caps take to the road Wednesday against the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre.

And not only will the Canadiens be catching the Caps on the back half of a back-to-back, they will be doing it having played their last two games at home and not having had a game since Sunday (a 4-1 win over the New York Rangers). The Habs will be well-rested.

Of course, perhaps the Canadiens needed that respite. This has not been the best of years for the Canadiens. After finishing sixth in the Eastern Conference last season and taking the eventual Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins to overtime in a seventh game in the opening round of the playoffs last season, fans might have been hopeful for improvement this season. Strike that; it’s Montreal – improvement is expected.

Well, that did not work out as hoped, did it? Montreal did not stumble out of the gate to start the 2011-2012 season; they did a full face-plant – a 1-5-2 start. They did win four in a row to get themselves even at .500 (5-5-1), but then spent the next six weeks treading water. Again, this is Montreal, and treading water is not preferable to carving up the ice, so after posting a 13-12-7 record, Jacques Martin was relieved of his duties on December 17th.

Enter Randy Cunneyworth, a veteran of more than 850 regular season games with six different NHL teams, who was promoted from the Hamilton Bulldogs, the Montreal affiliate in the AHL. One might have wondered if Cunneyworth – who had a 302-241-48-40 record in eight seasons as an AHL head coach with Rochester and Hamilton – had the experience and the talent to manage behind an NHL bench. But the big story upon his elevation to the Canadiens’ top spot was the fact that he did not speak French (the first non-French speaking head coach for the Canadiens in more than 40 years). It was the stuff of government involvement (the Quebec Culture Minister calling for the situation to be rectified), commerce (a call for a boycott of Molson products, the Molson family being club owners), and club management itself (stating that the permanent replacement for Martin must be bilingual).

Hockey was almost a distraction for this franchise. Not that it has been an altogether pleasant distraction, either. Since Martin was relieved, the Canadiens are 4-8-1. And the latest “scandal” is whether P.K. Subban spit at New York Rangers defenseman Michael Del Zotto this past Sunday after the Rangers took a 2-1 lead in what would be a 4-1 win. This is not the team of Scotty Bowman. Scott Towels, maybe.

One might think all this will make for an ornery bunch of Canadiens, but there is another twist to this that might have the Capitals in an ornery mood. It started with two entirely unrelated events involving different team and different cities. The Montreal angle on this starts with Michael Cammalleri and comments he was reported to have said concerning the Canadiens after a practice on January 11th, "I can't accept that we will display a losing attitude as we're doing this year. We prepare for our games like losers. We play like losers. So it's no wonder why we lose." But this was reported by a French media source, and there is some dispute about whether Cammalleri meant “losers” or suggested a “losing mentality” (there’s that language thing again).

Nevertheless, he was shipped to Calgary in a trade (with rights to goaltender Karri Ramo) for Rene Bourque. But not even something so simple as a trade could escape intrigue. Cammalleri was in the midst of a game last Thursday against the Boston Bruins (one that Montreal lost, 2-1). Through two period he had skated a total of 9:02, but was held out in the third period of the game, the trade apparently having been consummated.

Which brings us to the return on the trade and why the Caps might be in as ornery a mood as their hosts. When the Calgary Flames visited Washington on January 3rd, the Caps had a 3-1 lead over the Flames, due in no small part to Nicklas Backstrom getting assists on the first and second Caps goals. But with just under ten minutes left in the game, Rene Bourque congratulated Backstrom on his achievement by elbowing him in the head. The elbow ended Backstrom’s night (in fact, ended Backstrom’s participation for five more games, and counting) and earned Bourque a five-game suspension. On Wednesday, Bourque – who seemed to warm up for this contest by delivering an iffy hit on New York Ranger Carl Hagelin in Bourque’s first game with the Habs – will renew acquaintances with the Caps. And remember, Bourque is also the player who jumped Tyler Sloan in a game in Calgary in October 2008 after Sloan delivered a big hit on Flames’ forward Daymond Langkow (it was Sloan’s first game), earning him 19 minutes in penalties and putting the Caps on a nine-minute power play (the Caps did not score, and subsequently lost the game, 2-1).

This isn’t a game, it’s a mini-series.

Meanwhile, the numbers for the two teams shake out like this:

(click pic for larger image)

1. As if it was not bad enough with “'Équipe Feuilleton Mélo” (pardon us if our French is rusty), Scott Gomez was on injured reserve following a lower body injury sustained in late November. But he returned to the lineup on Saturday against the Ottawa Senators. He did not score a goal. He did not score a goal in his next game, on Sunday against the New York Rangers. In fact, going into Monday’s action, 611 skaters dressing for NHL games this season had more goals than Scott Gomez, including such household names as Aaron Volpatti, Lance Bouma, and Cody Almond. You see, Scott Gomez has yet to score a goal this season. OK, it is only 15 games, but hey, for a cap hit of $7,357,143 one might expect him to be out-scoring Aaron Volpatti, Lance Bouma, and Cody Almond (combined cap hit: $1,949,166).

2. Montreal seems to have to play with a lead…a big lead. They are 7-8-8 in one-goal games, good for 28th best winning percentage in the league. Only Edmonton and Carolina are worse, not the company you want to keep.

3. Montreal seems to have to play with a lead…a big lead, Part 2. The Canadiens are ranked 27th in the league in games decided by two goals (3-7). Only Anaheim, Columbus, and Tampa Bay are worse. Another bad neighborhood.

4. Only one team in the league has been shorthanded more often in the first period than Montreal’s 64 occurrences (Philadelphia: 69). Only seven teams have more shorthanded situations in the second period. Seems it takes this group a while to figure out the rules on a game-to-game basis.

5. Montreal is dead last in the league in winning percentage when scoring first (.429). They are one of only two teams (Columbus is the other one) with winning records below .500 in such situations.

1. As noted in the post-game from last night, in 16 games in which the Caps have allowed five or more power plays they have a record of 6-9-1 and have killed 65 of 86 shorthanded situations (75.6 percent). In games in which they have allowed fewer than five power play opportunities they have a record of 18-9-1 and have killed off 61 of 69 shorthanded situations (88.4 percent).

2. On the other side, the Caps are 4-2-1 in games in which they received five or more power plays and are 6-for-39 in those games (15.4 percent). They are 20-16-1 in games in which they receive fewer than five power plays and are 22-for-106 (20.8 percent) in those games.

3. The Caps have allowed only one 5-on-3 power play goal this season. Only Detroit and Vancouver have yet to allow one.

4. This whole getting out-shot thing is having an effect. It has happened in 27 of 44 games, and the Caps have a record of 12-13-2 when the opponent records more shots on goal (tied for 19th in winning percentage). They are 12-5-0 when outshooting the opponent (second in winning percentage). The Caps need to find a way to either reverse the getting out-shot trend or find a way to be more successful in enduring it.

5. The Caps need to keep games close, it seems. They are 18-8-2 in one- or two-goal games, 6-10 when the decision is by three or more goals.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Erik Cole

Erik Cole is Montreal’s leading goal scorer, but after getting four in five games from December 27th through January 7th, has not recorded one in any of his last four games (tying his longest streak without a goal this season since a seven-game streak to start the campaign). He has had success against the Caps, though, with 20 goals in 44 career games (20-13-33). He has 13 power play points among those 44 career points against the Caps (6-7-13), and he has seven power play goals this season overall to lead the Canadiens.

Washington: Michal Neuvirth

It might be time to give Tomas Vokoun a breather, especially in the Caps going on the road right after a home game. Michal Neuvirth has not appeared in a game sine January 9th – a 20 minute mop-up stint in a 5-2 loss at Los Angeles – and has not started a game since December 26th, a game in which he allowed three goals on six shots in 11:15 before being pulled in a 4-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres. His last “60 minute” game was going the distance in a 3-2 Gimmick loss to New Jersey on December 23rd. He does not have much of a record against Montreal (1-1-0, 2.91, .887), but at some point he needs to scrape some of the rust off.

Keys:

1. SHOOT
2. THE
3. PUCK!!!

In the end, the Caps have to show that they can win games away from the friendly confines of Verizon Center. They are 3-5-1 in road games since Dale Hunter took over, and with six of their next seven on the road, they have a chance to turn that record around. If they don’t, then this 3-1-0 home stand will have been wasted. That means that tonight, distractions like what to do about seeing Rene Brouque again are just that – distractions. There are more important things to work on.

Capitals 4 – Canadiens 2

A NO-point night -- Game 44: Islanders 3 - Capitals 0

Manhole cover… pancake… Capitals last night…

What is “things that are flat?,” Alex.

One might have watched the Washington Capitals’ 3-0 loss to the New York Islanders last night and asked, “why bother coming to the rink?” One might rationalize this by saying that these things happen, that there will be nights like this, but once more it was a case of doing too little at one end (17 shots on goal, only 14 at even strength), and relying too much on one guy at the other (Tomas Vokoun, 25 saves on 28 shots). Toss in a little “what happened to the penalty kill?”, and it was a recipe for a loss that the Caps might come to regret down the road.

Other stuff…

-- In the first three games of the home stand, the Caps had seven goals on 65 shots (10.8 percent shooting). Even had they done that well in this game they would have lost. Averaging 20.5 shots on goal (as they did for this home stand) just will not get things done.

-- To emphasize the point, that makes 15 straight games that the Caps did not top 30 shots (they hit 30 once in that span). Ten times in those 15 games – and in each of their last five – they did not make it to 25 shots on goal.

-- From the “hand in glove” file…eight offensive zone faceoffs. Eight. Nineteen in the defensive zone. Nineteen. The Caps are starting – and spending – too much of the time in the defensive zone.

-- From the “get well at Caps expense file,” PA Parenteau had his first two-goal game of the year, the first multiple-goal game of his career (in his 152nd game), and broke a seven-game streak without a goal.

-- Not really sure who Dmitry Orlov was passing the puck to when he went cross ice just before Parenteau’s first goal. There wasn’t a soul on the other side of the ice.

-- Last night was the first time since December 7th (17 games) that the Caps allowed more than five power plays (they were 4-for-6 on the penalty kill). They have done so four times this season and are 1-3-0 in such games. Here is your penalty killing takeaway. In 16 games in which the Caps have allowed five or more power plays they have a record of 6-9-1 and have killed 65 of 86 shorthanded situations (75.6 percent). In games in which they have allowed fewer than five power play opportunities they have a record of 18-9-1 and have killed off 61 of 69 shorthanded situations (88.4 percent).  Practice -- at least within games -- does NOT make perfect.

In the end, call it “one of those games” or the “letdown before the road trip” sort of game, but it was two points the Caps should have and needed to earn. They didn’t. We will see if it does come back to haunt them.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 44: Islanders at Capitals, January 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their four-game home stand on Tuesday when they host the New York Islanders. The Caps have a chance to make this four-game home stand end a whole lot better than their last one. You will recall that the last time the Caps had a home stand of this length, they lost them all. From December 4th through December 11th last season, the Caps dropped all four games of a four-game home stand (0-3-1), getting outscored by 13-7 in the process (not counting a trick shot game-winner). They also dropped all of a four-game home stand in March 2009. And they lost all four of a four-game home stand in late February/early March in 2007. In fact, the last time the Caps swept a four-game home stand was March 11-19, 2000, when they beat the Devils, Islanders, Hurricanes, and Lightning.

In trying to sweep their home stand and extend their winning streak to four games, the Caps will be facing their fourth straight opponent playing the second of a back-to-back set of games. The Islanders dropped a 3-1 decision to Nashville on Monday. And the Islanders do not come to Verizon Center on a hot streak. In their last six games they are 2-4-0, and they have struggled to find any consistency at either end of the ice, having been outscored in those games, 18-15. Only one of the six decisions was of the one-goal variety. How they compare to the Capitals, numbers-wise, looks like this:

(click pic for larger image)

It is a profile that seems to suggest that the Islanders will find themselves at season-end once more in fifth place in the Atlantic Division. It they end the season that way, it would be the fifth consecutive season they finished last in their division.

1. Only one team in the league has a worse record in game decided by three or more goals (4-10). Only three teams have more losses by that margin. The Islanders do seem to be improving in that regard, though. They have only two losses by three or more goals in their last 16 games, although their record is still only 7-9-0 in that span.

2. In that 7-9-0 record over their last 16 games, three of the wins have come in the Gimmick, all on the road. The other four wins have come at home.

3. Shots do not seem to matter in games played by the Islanders. New York is 26th in the league in games they outshoot opponents (8-10-3), 27th in games in which they are outshot (6-10-3). They do, however, do well with a lead. The Isles are 10-0-4 when leading after one period, 10-1-3 when leading after two. But note that they have only held leads 14 times at the first or second intermission in 43 games.

4. What happened to Josh Bailey? When he scored 16 goals in his second season in the NHL in 2009-2010, he might have been thought of as one of a group of young Islanders who could restore the club to competitiveness. He has only 11 goals in 70 games last season, and he finds himself with only three so far this season in 43 games, none in his last 15 contests and only two assists, despite getting more than 15 minutes of ice time a night on average in those games.

5. The Islanders have dressed five different goalies so far this season – Evgeni Nabokov, Rick DiPietro, Al Montoya, Kevin Poulin, and Anders Nilsson. DiPietro might miss the rest of the season to sports hernia surgery. If so, it will mean he will have dressed for a total of 47 games over the last four seasons. Al Montoya has missed a month to a concussion. They Islanders turned to Kevin Poulin on Monday in the 3-1 loss to Nashville.

1. The Caps stumbled out of the gate under new coach Dale Hunter, losing three of their first four games. Since then, though, they are 11-5-1. They are 7-2-0 in their last nine contests.

2. Assuming Mike Green and Jeff Schultz will be out of the lineup, only five Capitals will dress having a “plus” next to their stat line. And if Cody Eakin does not dress or is sent down, there would be four “plus’ players – Karl Alzner, Jason Chimera, Jeff Halpern, and Joel Ward.

3. As the Caps try to make it four in a row, the first wins three in the streak have come by one goal. The Caps are fifth in the league in winning percentage in one-goal decisions (12-5-2).

4. The Caps have only one shorthanded goal this season (Jason Chimera). Calgary is the only team in the league yet to score a shorthanded goal.

5. Brooks Laich has been stingy with the puck so far this season. He leads the Caps in takeaways (31) and has given away the puck only 12 times in 43 games. But for really stingy? Jeff Halpern… he has three giveaways in 42 games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Evgeni Nabokov

In the merry-go-round that is the Islanders’ net this season, Evgeni Nabokov has been pretty good lately. In his last eight appearances he is 5-3-0, 2.49, .907. What he has benefitted from in that run is not having to see a lot of rubber, an average of 26.8 shots per 60 minutes played. The Caps have had singular difficulty in generating shots on goal – an average of 23.7 over their last 14 games, only once getting as many as 30 shots on goal in that span. Nabokov has sparkled against the Caps with a 9-1-0, 2.18, .929 record against Washington with one shutout. The trouble, if there is one, is that he is only 2-7-0, 3.20, .896 in 10 games on the road this season.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson has had his difficulties on defense lately, having been on the ice for three of the four goals scored against Washington in this home stand (all of them against Tampa Bay). But at the other end, he hasn’t recorded a goal in 16 games and does not have a point in his last eight contests. With Mike Green out, it would be good to have him take some of the blue line scoring burden off the shoulders of Dennis Wideman. He is 0-5-5 in five career games against the Islanders.

Keys:

1. Fast out of the gate. We’ve hinted at this in the last few games, but once more the Caps get a team fresh off a game the previous day. It has happened in their last three games. The Caps do have goals in the first period in two of those games, which is a good thing. They need to keep up that kind of pressure on a team playing on little rest.

2. Activate! In the three game home stand, the Caps have one point from a defenseman not named “Wideman” (Dmitry Orlov’s game winning goal against Carolina). The Caps have 18 shots on goal from defensemen in this three-game home stand, eight of them from John Carlson and five from Dennis Wideman. That leaves five shots on goal over three games from the other four defensemen. That is contributing to the low shot totals for the Caps.

3. Patience. When these teams met on November 5th, the Caps allowed three goals in the third period in a 5-3 loss on Long Island. But the Islanders are not, as a rule, a very good third period team. They have been outscored in the third periods of games this season by 48-30. Only five teams have allowed more third period goals.

In the end, the Caps have made good on their opportunities on this home stand so far, both in getting teams coming off games the day before facing the Caps and in winning those games. But they have done it by the thinnest of margins, each result being of the one-goal variety. They get one last opportunity to use this formula on this home stand before heading out on a three-game road trip. The added incentive here is that a win will allow the Caps to leap back over the Florida Panthers into first place in the Southeast Division (the Panthers taking the top spot with their earning a standings point in a Gimmick loss to Boston last night). That should be enough to make the Caps’ home stand a complete success.

Capitals 3 – Islanders 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 43: Capitals 2 - Hurricanes 1

Keep telling yourselves, “it’s not ‘how,’ it’s ‘how many.’”

If you looked at anything but the scoreboard – highlights, game summary, event summary, the looks on Caps fans’ faces during the game – you would have thought that the Washington Capitals were being run out of their own rink by the visiting Carolina Hurricanes. But the Caps parlayed a lasr of a shot from Alexander Semin and a chip shot from an impossible angle by Dmitry Orlov, plus 43 saves on 44 shots from Tomas Vokoun into a 2-1 win over the Hurricanes.

It looked for a time that the teams would go all 60 minutes without scoring, Vokoun stopping everything thrown his way and Carolina goalie Cam Ward being tested about as often as the television time outs. But with about three minutes left in the second period, Carolina made two mistakes. First, Andreas Nodl skated the puck through neutral ice for the Hurricanes and tried to chip the puck deep into the Caps’ end. He managed only to hit the logo on the jersey of Caps defenseman Dennis Wideman. The puck bounced to Alex Ovechkin, who started the other way with Marcus Johansson. After Ovechkin slid the puck across to Johansson on his right, Johansson dropped the puck for Alexander Semin just inside the Carolina blue line. Semin wound up to shoot, but here is where the second mistake took place. Carolina defenseman Derek Joslin started backing up. It looked as if he might not stop until he had a seat in Section 117 behind the Carolina goal. The space given up was just what Semin needed as he edged in and ripped a shot over Cam Ward’s glove and just under the crossbar to give the Caps the first goal.

It lasted only 2:46. With Jay Beagle off for elbowing, Jussi Jokinen tied the game with only five seconds left on the power play and only 17 seconds left in the period on the third whack at a puck in front of Vokoun.

The tie lasted only 1:29. In the second minute of the third period, Tomas Vokoun kicked out a drive by Jeff Skinner from the right point. Orlov picked up the loose puck from between the hash marks and skated the other way. He sent the puck up to Jason Chimera down the left wing, who pushed the play into the Carolina zone. As Chimera crossed into the Carolina zone, he tried to chip the puck over Jussi Jokinen’s stick to Orlov charging down the middle. The puck bounced over Orlov’s stick and on goal, but Ward could not control the puck, either. It bounced to his right and to Orlov, who chipped the puck up and behind Ward just as he was about to circle around the net. Dmitry Orlov’s first NHL goal would be a game winner.

(image: CSN)

Other stuff:

-- That was the fifth straight game in which the Caps were outshot. Over those games the Caps have been outshot by an average of 36 – 23. Carolina had more shots on goal (44) than the Caps had shot attempts (38).

-- The disallowed goal off the stick of Brooks Laich will make for interesting bar talk over the next cycle. Several Rules appear to apply here. First, there is Rule 69.1, which states:

“This rule is based on the premise that an attacking player’s position, whether inside or outside the crease, should not, by itself, determine whether a goal should be allowed or disallowed. In other words, goals scored while attacking players are standing in the crease may, in appropriate circumstances be allowed. Goal should be disallowed only if: (1) an attacking player, either by his positioning or by contact, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal; or (2) an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goalkeeper, inside or outside his goal crease.”

Rule 69.3 goes on to state that, “if an attacking player initiates contact with a goalkeeper, incidental or otherwise, while the goalkeeper is in his goal crease, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.”

If these Rules are applied in this instance, it had to be the case that Laich was deemed to have been: (a) in the crease, and (b) impairing Cam Ward’s ability to defend his goal by virtue of contact, despite its being incidental contact.

Then there is Rule 78.5 concerning disallowed goals:

“Apparent goals shall be disallowed by the Referee and the appropriate announcement made by the Public Address Announcer for the following reasons:…(v) when an attacking player has interfered with a goalkeeper in his goal crease.”

And Rule 38.2 concerning video review and announcements:

“Once the play has been reviewed and deemed a goal, the goal will be announced in the normal manner. If the review reveals that the goal must be disallowed, the Public Address Announcer shall announce the reason for the disallowed goal as reported by the Referee.”

Maybe we missed it, but there was no announcement of a reason for the disallowance of the goal. The referee left the referee’s crease signaling “no goal,” then went to the Capitals’ bench to inform the coaching staff.

-- Back to the game…the hit by Alex Ovechkin on Tuomo Ruutu was a thing of beauty that gets lost among head shots and elbows. Shoulder in the logo, and Ruutu was planted in the ice. Ovechkin has spurts when he will hit anything that moves, but this might have been a bit of payback for the hit Ruutu had on Dennis Wideman in a game last March that ended Wideman’s season and that had Ovechkin going after Ruutu.

-- Back to that shots thing. Every single Carolina skater had at least one shot on goal. Fourteen had at least two. Stormy, the Carolina mascot, was credited with two shots on goal.

-- On the other side, 15 Capital skaters were credited with at least one hit. They outhit Carolina, 36-21.

-- The Caps had more blocked shots (25) than they had shots on goal (24).

-- The Caps went ten games – from November 29th through January 11th – without allowing a power play goal on Verizon Center ice (26-for-26). Jussi Jokinen’s power play goal for Carolina makes it power play goals allowed in consecutive games at home.

-- The Caps had one power play opportunity tonight. That is the sixth time this season (and third in the last seven games) that the Caps have had only one power play opportunity. In the previous five instances they had four power play goals on their lone opportunity. They were unsuccessful tonight.

-- Seventeen Russians have scored goals in the season so far. With Orlov’s first, the Caps have three of them. That ties Columbus for the league lead. That’s right, the Blue Jackets are tied for first in something (Fedor Tyutin, Nikita Nikitin, and Maksim Mayorov).

-- That makes 7-0-0 for the Caps on home ice in the last four weeks. They have outscored the opposition 21-8 in those seven games.

-- With 43 saves on 44 shots tonight, Tomas Vokoun has stopped 101 of 105 shots what is now a three game winning streak (.962 save percentage).

In the end, it is two points. But more than that, it means the Caps are now atop the Southeast Division and headed in the opposite direction from that of their closest pursuer, the Florida Panthers (with whom they remain tied in standings points). The Caps will get the Islanders, Montreal, and Carolina one more time this week. Florida will get Boston, Colorado, and Chicago in their next three. Opportunity awaits, but the Caps still must take care of their own business.

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 14 (January 8 - 14)

Fourteen weeks in and crossing the half-way point of the season. All in all, not a bad week, but nothing to get excited about, either. Kind of like the first fourteen weeks and the first half overall…

Record: 2-1-0

The Caps started the week in the second game of a two-game road trip to California, which for the Capitals might as well be named, “Bataan.” We are loathe to compare a hockey road trip with a forced march of more than 75,000 prisoners of war, but it is the only simile we could think of this early in the day. It got better for the Caps upon their return home, but that is almost expected for a club that finished the week with the second best home record in the Eastern Conference. Those wins did come, however, against teams the Caps have to beat – against Pittsburgh, with whom they are fighting for a playoff spot, and Tampa Bay, who is struggling to win against anyone these days.

Offense: 2.33/game (season:2.90 /rank: 9th)

The Caps managed only two goals in that game in Los Angeles against the Kings and did not do a lot better when they arrived home for the last two games of the week. The Caps managed five goals in the two contests, but only two of them came at 5-on-5 with the opponent’s net manned. Two others came on power plays, and the fifth on an empty net goal.

It wasn’t all “meh,” though. Remember that the Caps were without the services of their leading scorer (Nicklas Backstrom) and their top offensive defenseman (Mike Green) this week. They got two goals from Marcus Johansson in Los Angeles, a hat trick from Troy Brouwer in the win against Tampa Bay, and between those they got a goal from Jason Chimera that was the only goal scored in the game against Pittsburgh. This the kind of secondary scoring the Caps need in the absence of Backstrom and Green, and especially since the Alexes – Ovechkin and Semin – were held to one goal for the week (Ovechkin). Even Mike Knuble, relegated to fourth line duty for most of the season, contributed two assists – his first points since he had an assist in a 4-2 win over Toronto on December 9th.

Defense: 2.67/game (season: 2.90/rank:T-20st)

The Caps are really a Jekyll and Hyde team when it comes to road and home games, and it manifested itself this week as well. Against the Kings, they allowed five goals – the fourth time in nine road games under Dale Hunter that they allowed four or more goals. Against the Penguins and Lightning they allowed a total of three goals. The shutout of the Penguins was the ninth time in 11 home games under Hunter that the Caps allowed two or fewer goals. But think of how this is unfolding, too. On the blue line, Mike Green is out; Tom Poti is out. Dmitry Orlov is getting the kind of minutes one would have expected he would have been getting in Hershey (he is averaging more than 16 minutes per game for the season and averaged more than 17-and-a-half minutes for the week). Tomas Kundratek was called up from Hershey and got more than 18 minutes of ice time in two games. This is not the defensive corps folks imagined at the start of the season. It’s not the one folks might have imagined at the start of 2012. In that respect, it hasn’t done badly.

Goaltending: 2.67 /.917, one shutout

Tomas Vokoun got most of the work for the week (again), sitting only for the last 20 minutes in the 5-2 loss to the Kings in Los Angeles to open the week. His was a glass half full/glass half empty week. There was stopping 81 of 88 shots (a .921 save percentage), but he allowed four goals on 27 shots against the Kings and three on 31 shots against the Lightning (.879 combined) wrapped around a 30-save shutout of the Penguins. He figured in all three decisions for a 2-1-0 week.

For Michal Neuvirth it was another week with the realization that absent an unforeseen circumstance, the number one goaltender issue is settled (as if anyone thought it would be settled any other way). Neuvirth got 20 minutes of mop-up duty this week (seven saves on eight shots in the loss in LA). He has appeared in nine of the 20 games played by the Caps under Dale Hunter, but two of those were relief appearances. He is 3-3-1, 2.61, .907 in his nine appearances overall. But given the situation at the moment, it would seem that Neuvirth’s apperances might be limited to spot duty – relief and/or playing one of a back-to-back set of games.

Power Play: 2-for-9/22.2 percent (season: 19.9 percent/rank: 5th)

Here we are with the Jekyll and Hyde theme once more. The Caps were 0-for-3 against the Kings to bring them to 9-for-66 for the season away from Verizon Center. That is 25th in the league in power play efficiency. Then, they were 2-for-6 in two home games (both goals coming against Tampa Bay), leaving them at 19-for-75 for the season, that 25.3 efficiency being tops in the league at home.

Getting shots to the net seemed to make a difference. The Caps had only two shots on three power plays in Los Angeles and had nothing to show for it. They had one shot on two power plays against Pittsburgh and had nothing to show for it. Of course, the Kings (fourth in home penalty kill) and the Penguins (ninth in road penalty kill) are pretty good on the PK. Against Tampa Bay the Caps had seven shots on four power plays, and they scored on two of their first three shots. The Lightning are 18th in road penalty killing. You could say the week unfolded about as one would expect.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-8/75.0 percent (season: 82.1%/rank:T-18th)

The good… only eight shorthanded situations faced in three games. The bad, the Caps allowed a power play goal in each of the games in which they had to kill off a shorthanded situation. In the middle game of the week – the 1-0 win over Pittsburgh – the Caps did not face a shorthanded situation. There also was a certain symmetry to the week. Two goals allowed in eight shorthanded situations, two goals on eight shots faced in those situations. What you can say about the week is that neither power play goal allowed influenced the result too much. The first one was the fifth goal by Los Angeles, giving them a 5-1 lead midway through the third period in their 5-2 win. If there is a complaint about that one, it is that both Justin Williams and Dustin Penner got behind defensemen John Carlson and Karl Alzner to whack at a shot from the point by Drew Doughty. On the other one, a goal by Steven Stamkos that closed the gap to 3-2 in favor of the Caps late in the 4-3 win by the Caps, Stamkos worked his way into position among a triangle of Caps who seemed to lose track of him. He is the wrong guy on that team to lose track of. But with all that, the Caps are still the third best penalty killing group at home in the league.

Paying the Price: 98 hits/54 blocked shots (season rank:15th/14th)

Maybe it was scoring quirks, or maybe it was the opponents, but 98 hits? Against the Penguins (an arch rival) and the Lightning (a divisional opponent), the Caps were credited with a total of 72 hits. Fifteen of 18 skaters were credited with at least one hit in each of the games against the Penguins and the Lightning. Troy Brouwer (didn’t he have a busy week?) had a fourth of them – 18 of the 72 hits in those two games. On the other end, the other guy you would expect to have benefitted from the hit meter going haywire – Alex Ovechkin – had a total of only four in those two games. We wonder about that hit meter since the two opponents in those games – Pittsburgh (40) and Tampa Bay (25) registered a total of 65 hits themselves in the two games.

Faceoffs: 97-for-196/49.5 percent (season: 51.1 percent/rank:8th)

Again, not a bad week, not a great week. The Caps lost the week narrowly and lost two of the three games (winning the faceoff duel against the Penguins, 25-20). What is under the surface of the numbers, though, is this one – 38.6. That was the Caps’ winning percentage in the offensive zone for the week. None of the big three who took a majority of the draws for the Caps – Jeff Halpern (1-4), Brooks Laich (8-17), and Marcus Johansson (7-25) – were over 50 percent in the offensive zone. At the defensive end of the ice it was somewhat better. The Caps were 25-for-45 (55.6 percent), and two of the three of those same players were above 50 percent (Halpern: 57.1 percent; Laich: 53.6 percent).

Turnovers: minus-15

The Caps found themselves on the short side of the turnover battle in each of the three games. It was not that they were especially charitable with the puck (The Caps had a total of 52 turnovers in three games, their own giveaways and opponents’ takeaways), but they generated so few turnovers from opponents – only 37 in three games.

Impressions:

It’s not how, it’s how many. That’s the way the story goes. But at some point one has to be concerned about the “how.” The Caps did just enough to win two games this week and had their lunches eaten in front of them in Los Angeles. They have lost their last four and eight of their last nine road games to teams currently in the top-eight of their respective conferences. The road record in general – and their making a fight of it against good teams in their rinks – has to improve. If it does not, the Caps are going to be hanging around the edges of the playoffs for their last 40 games. And it will not take much for them to find themselves on the wrong side of that divide.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 43: Hurricanes at Capitals, January 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

By the time the clock tolls midnight tonight, the Washington Capitals could be in first place in the Southeast Division. It would be the first time the Caps held the top spot in the Southeast since November 18th. But to do that, the Caps have to get past the Carolina Hurricanes this afternoon. The Caps have accomplished that feat twice already this season – a 4-3 overtime win in the season opener at Verizon Center and a 5-1 decision in Carolina on November 4th.

The loss to Washington on November 4th dropped Carolina to .500 at 5-5-3. It is the last time so far this season that the Hurricanes were at .500. Since then they are 11-18-4. Worse, they are 3-9-2 on the road. But here is the odd quirk in the Hurricanes’ record. Of the seven games they have won since December 15th, five of them have come against teams in their respective conference playoff-eligible group, including wins against Vancouver and Boston. Carolina can, from time to time, scare up a big effort against the big teams, even if their overall numbers do not look especially fear-inducing:

(click on pic for larger image)

The numbers paint a picture something other than pretty for Carolina. In no general category do they rank higher than 20th save for scoring, and even there they hang on to the last spot in the top half of the rankings. They are being outscored on the road by more than a goal per game for the season.

1. The first 20 minutes matter for the Hurricanes. Thirteen times the Hurricanes have trailed after one period; twelve times they lost in regulation time. Only two teams have a worse record (Anaheim and Phoenix).

2. Carolina has the worst record in the league when being outshot by their opponent (6-15-4), although they have won their last two games when allowing more shots than they take (Tampa Bay, Boston).

3. Only one goalie in the league has played more than 2,000 minutes, has a goals against average over 3.00, and has a save percentage under .905: Cam Ward (2,250, 3.09, .902).

4. Eric Staal is 2-1-3 in the two games against the Caps so far this season. He also has been on the ice for five of the nine goals Washington scored in the two games (four of the six even strength goals). Perhaps he can take solace in the fact that Jamie McBain was on the ice for four of the five goals scored by Washington in the 5-1 Caps win in November. But there is this, too. Only seven of 813 skaters having dressed so far this season have a worse plus-minus on the road than Staal (minus-12), and he is last overall (minus-21).

5. Carolina has allowed more third period goals than any team in the league – 65. Their allowing 1.41 goals per game in the third period is not too far off Tuukka Rask’s league leading 1.59 goals against per 60 minutes for Boston.

1. Only two teams in the league have allowed fewer goals on the power play at home than the seven allowed by the Caps (Pittsburgh, New Jersey).

2. The Caps have played only two games against the Hurricanes so far this season, but they have points from 15 different skaters in the two wins. And, the nine goals they have in the two games come from nine different players.

3. You probably would not be surprised to know that Nicklas Backstrom is tied for the team lead with 14 even strength assists. You might be surprised to know that the player with whom he is tied is John Carlson.

4. The Caps have done a pretty good job of spreading around penalty killing responsibilities. Through 42 games, the Caps are averaging 5:38 in shorthanded ice time per game. No Cap is averaging more than half that amount (Karl Alzner leads with 2:39), only four Caps average more than two minutes, and 14 different players (including six defensemen) are averaging at least 45 seconds.

5. Troy Brouwer was displaying a certain efficiency in shooting before his hat trick against Tampa Bay on Friday. He was 11-for-66 (16.7 percent) going into that game. Three goals on three shots later, and he is the only Caps with a shooting percentage over 20 percent for the season (20.3 percent on 14-for-69 shooting). He ranks seventh in the league in shooting efficiency.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Justin Faulk

Carolina defenseman Joni Pitkanen had knee surgery on Janaury 3rd and was expected to take four weeks to recuperate. In the meantime, the ice time leader on the blue line for the Hurricanes is Justin Faulk (22:03 per game for the season). A lot of responsibility for a youngster who will not celebrate his 20th birthday until March 20th. He had been struggling on the defensive side of the ledger, putting up a combined minus-4 in seven games from December 27th through January 10th. But in his last two games he has a goal and an assist, and is a plus-4 in two Carolina wins. He is tied for the team lead among defensemen in power play points (2-4-6, with Jamie McBain).

Washington: Alexander Semin

Caps fans have seen “Good Sasha” lately in an important respect. He has drawn only one minor penalty in more than 137 minutes of ice time covering eight games. Add to that the fact that Semin is 3-5-8, plus-4 in those games, and that is a good thing indeed. But the important thing here might be that penalty number. The Hurricanes are a poor team at 5-on-5 (27th in the league) but somewhat better with the man advantage (20th overall, 16th on the road). Stay out of the box.

Keys:

1. Get a lead. In a league where it is tough to win when you trail in games, Carolina is an especially poor team at coming from behind – 26th when allowing the first goal, 28th when trailing at the first intermission. Add to that, Carolina is playing their second game in less than 24 hours, and the Caps need to jump on these guys early.

2. Play it clean. Carolina has only 16 power play opportunities in their last nine games. They have converted seven of them (43.8 percent). The lack of opportunities has had an effect, in spite of the efficiency. Carolina has killed off only 22 of 30 shorthanded situations in those nine games (73.3 percent), leaving them a minus-1 on special teams in those nine games.

3. Shoot smart. Carolina goalie Cam Ward (should he get the call in the second half of a back-to-back) seems to thrive on in-game work. When facing 34 or more shots per game he has a 2.89 goals against average and a .921 save percentage (compared to 3.09, .902 overall). Only three times in 15 such games does he have a save percentage lower than .910. Pounding shots is not necessarily the path to winning against Ward. Don’t be cute, be smart.

In the end, the pressure on the Caps in this one is the kind of pressure that manifests itself as a product of underperforming for much of the season. They face an opponent they not only should beat, but must beat given their tenuous hold on eighth place in the East (they own tie breakers over Pittsburgh). Carolina, for two games at least, is playing as well as they have since beating Boston twice and Buffalo for their only three-game winning streak of the season in October. This is one game in which the Caps need to get off to a good start so that Carolina might remember they are playing that second game in less than 24 hours. Given each of Carolina’s last two road losses have come by the same score, why not a third time?

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 2