Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 4: Capitals 3 - Rangers 2

Well, at least we all got out at a decent hour.

The Washington Capitals tied their Eastern Conference semi-final with the New York Rangers, hanging a 3-2 defeat on the visitors on a late power play goal by Mike Green. The series heads to New York for Game 5, and the Caps will do so having recovered smartly from their 2-1 triple-overtime loss to the Rangers on Wednesday.

It was precisely the sort of game the Caps have played ten times before in these playoffs – close checking, low-risk, opportunistic, and calm. Once more the first goal was important. For the 10th time in 11 games for the Caps this spring the team that scored first won the game. This would be a game that turned on the infrequent mistake, and the Rangers committed the first one of consequence. It came in the 13th minute of the first period with a clot of players fighting for a loose puck in the Rangers’ end to goalie Henrik Lundqvist’s left. The puck squirted out to where Ranger Chris Kreider had crept down the wall. As he collected the puck, three Caps were about to surround him, and Kreider tried to make a quick play up the middle with a backhand pass. What he found was Alex Ovechkin without a Ranger around him. Ovechkin wasted no time letting fly with a slap shot that Lundqvist got a glove on, but not enough of it as the puck crawled out of the webbing of his mitt and hopped over the goal line.

In the second minute of the second period, it was the Caps’ turn. With the puck finding Dan Girardi at the right point in the Capitals’ end Girardi backed off and wristed a shot that Alex Oveckin “flamingoed.” Rather than take the puck off his shin pad, Ovechkin raised his right foot, letting the puck go by. Then, the hockey gods saw fit to make the Caps pay for the nonchalance by letting the puck hit between Brooks Laich’s skates in front of goalie Braden Holtby. Laich could get neither stick nor skate on the puck to direct it away. It allowed Artem Anisimov time to collect the puck, turn, and as Holtby tried to cover the bottom of the net by spreading his pads out, sweep the puck past him to tie the game.

Back to the Rangers. This time the mistake was more of a miscalculation. Just past the mid-way point of the second period and with the puck in the corner to Lundqvist’s left, Nicklas Backstrom was getting control of it with Anisimov bearing down on him. Anisimov, being 6’4”, 200 pounds, might have thought Backstrom – a player not known as a big hitter and only 6’1” – could be taken advantage of. Anisimov found out quickly the error of his assumption. As he closed on Backstrom, the Cap forward set his feet an planted a shoulder into Anisimov’s chest, dumping him on his keister to the ice. The puck found its way to Jason Chimera on the other side of the ice, giving Backstrom an opportunity to step out and find a soft spot in the Ranger defense. Chimera threaded a pass through the slot to Backstrom who snapped a shot past Lundqvist’s blocker, and the Caps had the lead once more.

Then the Caps returned the favor not five minutes later. The puck was flipped out of the Ranger end, and Caps defenseman Dennis Wideman tried to glove it down. He managed only to tip the puck (which would negate an icing call that had already been signaled by the linesman in the Caps end). Wideman turned and slowed down, apparently thinking his partner Jeff Schultz was going to take up the pursuit of the puck. But Schultz was skating on a path that took him to the wrong side of the net. Neither was in a position to keep Anisimov from getting to the puck first. With Wideman and Schultz both below the icing line trying to defend Anisimov, Marian Gaborik was setting up in front of Holtby. When he took the pass from Anisimov, he had only to bunt the puck through Holtby’s pads to tie the game one more and, as it would turn out, one last time. You know this is going to show up on Justin Bourne’s “Systems Analyst” on his “Backhand Shelf” blog.

Mike Green broke the tie late in the third period after Carl Hagelin took a slashing penalty for whacking John Carlson’s stick out of his hands. The play started when Alexander Semin punched the puck up the left wing wall and past a pair of Rangers to Wideman, who then backhanded the puck over to Green at the left point. Green had a lot of ice in front of him, a result of that scrum over on the other wall. As it turned out, only Ryan McDonagh was on Green’s side of the ice, and he was caught in a no-man’s land between jumping out to Green or hanging back to cut off any Capital going to the net. Green took advantage, stepping up and raising his stick for a shot. The move seemed to freeze McDonagh, and it was enough for Green to have a shooting opening that he used to fire a low shot that ducked under Lundqvist’s right pad and into the back of the net for the game-winner.

Other stuff…

-- With all those minutes played by the likes of Ryan McDonagh (53:17) and Marc Staal (49:34) for the Rangers in the triple-overtime game on Wednesday, one might wonder if there would be any hangover. Well, here is something that one might think about. In the first three games of this series the Rangers blocked 30.4% of Caps shot attempts in Game 1, 30.6 in Game 2, 35.7 in Game 3. McDonagh had eight blocked shots in the Game 3 triple-overtime affair, and Staal had another three. In Game 4 the Rangers blocked 17.5% of the Caps’ shot attempts, and McDonagh and Staal had one apiece.

-- The record will say that Henrik Lundqvist allowed three goals on 26 shots. However, Lundqvist had the more difficult chances, particularly one on Backstrom’s stick five minutes into the third period when he was in alone on Lundqvist and tried to go five-hole. Lundqvist got his pad on the shot to deny Backstrom a second goal.

-- Artem Anisimov had a lot of ones – one goal, one assist, plus-1, one shot on goal, one hit, and one faceoff win. Oh, and one unflattering dump in the corner courtesy of Backstrom.

-- The disallowed goal in the fourth minute of the third period appeared to us to be a case not of Mike Knuble having plopped into Lundqvist’s lap (he was helped into that position by Stu Bickel as Knuble was heading to the net). With Lundqvist, Knuble, and Bickel in the crease, the puck appeared never to cross the goal line until nudged in by a skate long after the referee’s whistle stopping play.

-- This is how the Caps play hockey these days. After Mike Green scored with 5:48 left in the third period, the Caps not only did not have another shot on goal, they did not have another shot attempt. At the other end, the Rangers managed eight shot attempts in the last 5:48, two of them on goal and six of them blocked. Those six blocks came from six different players (Roman Hamrlik, Mike Green, Matt Hendricks, Marcus Johansson, Troy Brouwer, and Brooks Laich).

-- Obligatory Alex Ovechkin time-on-ice comment…. Ovechkin did not take the ice at all after Green’s game-winning goal.

-- No, it isn’t a suspendable offense. Alex Ovechkin planted Dan Girardi with a hit in the second period that had the talking heads (well, talking head – Mike Milbury – but it’s a really big head) calling the hit “unacceptable” and worthy of a fine. In fact, Ovechkin attempted to play the puck with his left foot as he was cutting across the high slot. He managed only to nudge the puck in another direction, and after having done that found Girardi in his path. At hockey speed, it was a bang-bang moment.

-- Speaking of Girardi, he was where it was happening in this game. He was on the ice for all five goals.

-- The Rangers won the territorial was in this respect. There were 22 faceoffs in the Caps’ end, only ten in the Rangers’ end. No matter where they were, though, Matt Hendricks was winning them. He was 9-for-9 on draws.

-- The agony and the ecstasy. Jeff Schultz was on the ice for both Ranger goals. He also had nine – that’s right, nine – blocked shots. The Rangers as a team had only seven.

-- The Core Four had a nice game… 3-0-3, plus-1, 14 shots on goal.

-- And of the Core Four, even though the other three each scored goals, Alexander Semin might have been the most consistent force for good in this game. The puck was finding his stick all over the ice (he had ten shot attempts, four on goal), and he had two takeaways. Look for better things from him in Game 5.

-- Two games the Caps score power play goals…two wins. They are now 4-1 in games in which they get a power play goal during these playoffs.

-- It doesn’t happen often, so we’ll gloat about pretty much nailing the prognosto for this one.

In the end, we’re right back where we were in Round 1, alternating losses and wins through the first four games. The Caps went on to win Game 5 in Boston in the first round and will look to repeat history in New York on Monday. Given the way the playoffs have gone for the Caps so far, with the games having the same look and feel to them, one should not be surprised if the Caps do just that.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Game 4/Rangers at Capitals, May 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals host the New York Rangers on Saturday afternoon in Game 4 of their second-round matchup. The teams and their fans have had an extra day to digest all the extra hockey on Wednesday night, and everyone is probably anxious to get right back to skating, checking, shooting, shouting, yelling, and the like.

Game 4 poses an interesting situation for the Caps, as much for the result of Game 3 as anything else. History is a guide in such things, because while these Caps are unlike those who might have played, oh, 30 years ago, there are trends over time that seem to transcend the changes in rosters.

And that brings us to Game 3. The Caps lost a 2-1 decision in excruciating fashion, a three-overtime affair in which they certainly had their chances. But perhaps it is all for the best in the end. The Caps have taken 2-1 leads in games into Game 4 in four of the last seven playoff series in which they played. They lost three of those series (Tampa Bay in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2009, and Montreal in 2010). The exception was last year’s opening round series against the Rangers. Winning that Game 3 – or more to the point, losing it – seems not to have mattered much, at least to the Caps in recent years.

As Game 4 approaches, though, some things are becoming clear. One is that the Caps have started well, if not well off. In three first periods so far the Caps have out-shot the Rangers, 31-24. But they have managed goals in the first period in only one game, two goals scored in the first period of Game 2. Not coincidentally, that is the game they won in this series so far.

Conversely, the Rangers have been more productive late in games, outshooting the Caps narrowly (21-20 in the third period of games so far), but outscoring them 3-1.

The Caps have taken a one-goal lead only twice in this series. The scored the first goal (and the second) in Game 2, and gave the lead back. They would take back that lead in Game 2 and hold it for the final 7:27 of the contest.

On the other hand, the Rangers have taken one-goal leads three times (not counting the triple-overtime winner in Game 3) and surrendered them twice. In Game 1 the Rangers scored first but surrendered that lead to the Caps. They would regain that lead 13 minutes in to the third period and tack on another goal in a 3-1 win, the only time so far this spring the Caps have not finished a game with a one-goal margin, good or bad. In Game 3 they scored first, then let it slip away less than five minutes later. No one-goal lead in this series is safe, but…

The team that gets that first one goal lead – the one that scores first – wins. It has held true in each of the three games so far. What this suggests is that the games are so closely fought, so physically and mentally taxing, that a one goal deficit has the appearance of a mine shaft the team that is behind is trying from which to escape. They haven’t been able to use that foothold of a tie regained to add to the goal total before the other team takes a lead again (or scores that overtime winner).

Neither team has yet managed to impose its will on the other for sustained lengths of time in this series. Perhaps it is a product of these teams looking like mirror images of one another in style. The Caps come later to this, having had to learn to play this way over the last few months under Dale Hunter. For the Rangers it is the style for which they became known since John Tortorella became head coach.

As the series hits the mid-way point, the matter might now boil down to whether the Caps, who have subordinated “skill” (and the risk it sometimes bears in chance-taking), can get enough production out of their superior skill players in the ice time available to them. That they have not so far is the difference in this series – the “Core Four” (Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green) is a combined 1-2-3, minus-3 through three games. Only Alexander Semin has an even-strength point, assisting on John Carlson’s goal in Game 3.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Henrik Lundqvist

Henrik Lundqvist is 5-3, 2.11, .933, with one shutout in Games 4 of the post season in his career. But the wild card for him in this game will be the fact that he has logged the second highest minute total among goalies (the Caps’ Braden Holtby is first), and while there is the matter of the likes of defensemen Ryan McDonagh playing more than 53 minutes in Game 3 and Marc Staal playing almost 50 minutes, Lundqvist played more than one-sixth of his entire minute total in these playoffs in Game 3 (114:37 of 656:18). Lundqvist has had stinkers in the two playoff series in which he has faced the Caps – allowing four goals twice in the 2009 playoff series (both after allowing one or fewer goals in the previous game) and a five-spot after his second 4-0 loss, and allowing four goals to the Caps in Game 4 of last year’s playoffs after holding the Caps to a pair in the previous game.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom has not been a factor in any game so far in this series, save for his faceoff win in Game 2 that led directly to Alex Ovechkin’s game-winning power play goal. In his last 21 playoff games dating back to the opening round of the 2010 series against Montreal, Backstrom is 1-6-7, even. It is no coincidence that the Caps are 8-13 in those games. If the Caps are going to right things in this series, Backstrom is going to have to be heard from.

Keys:

1. Special teams. The Caps are 1-for-10 on the power play. They have 16 shots on goal in 15:45 of power play ice time. But those shots have an odd feel to them. Alex Ovechkin has five of those shots, all of them in Game 2 (in which he has his power play goal). It is a power play that looks good for moments, awful at other times. This is where the Caps deeper skill set needs to assert itself.

2. Calm. That might be the most frequently used word in describing the Caps so far in the playoffs. The occasional running around aimlessly in the offensive zone and cluelessly in the defensive zone has been absent. It has been what allows them to play effectively in close games.

3. Score first. Of course, but in this game it might mean just that much more. The grinding nature of this series has made even one-goal leads look large, especially the first one. Both teams have shown an ability to come back from it, but not to overtake it. Get that lead early, and maybe the Rangers will then have to deal just the slightest bit with all that skating their top defensemen did the other night.

In the end, the Caps have done what they had to do to play “playoff hockey.” No one could say of this team that they aren’t playing the “right way” (right R.J.?). But they do need to get just that little bit more from the Core Four – a skill set the Rangers cannot match. At the start of the season, George McPhee noted how this is their team. Well, now it the time to take ownership.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

Some things change...

The Los Angeles Kings are doing quite well this post season -- 7-1 in eight games so far, including a 3-0 lead on the St. Louis Blues in their second round matchup.  The Kings have allowed more than two goals in a game only once in their eight contests so far.  It has folks talking about Los Angeles appearing in the Stanley Cup finals for the first time since 1993.  In 19 years, a lot of things change.  For example, this is what passed for a cell phone in 1993:

Of course, some things haven't changed from 1993 until now...

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

With a day off, I was just thinking…

-- This series might come down to “Sweden.” So far, their Swedes (Anton Stralman and Carl Hageline) are a combined 0-0-0, minus-1. Meanwhile, the Caps’ Swedes (Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson) are a combined 0-1-1, minus-2. So, what’s the tie breaker? Right now…

… 2-1, 1.29, .944.

-- Speaking of Johansson… no points in his last five games and is a minus-3 besides. Let’s just not forget too quickly that he is only 21 years old. But it would still be nice if he grew up a little faster in this series.

-- It will be interesting to see how Backstrom performs in Game 4, given his 40-game hiatus in the regular season. He logged more than 34 minutes on Wednesday. After the other game in which he logged 30-plus minutes in these playoffs (Game 2 against Boston: 30:03 and the game-winning goal), he had an assist in 21 minutes and change. That Game 3 was also the game in which he earned a match penalty at the end of the game and a one-game suspension. Tired Nick is cranky Nick?

-- Brooks Laich has gone seven full games, 486:55, and 13 shots on goal without putting a puck in the back of the net. It would be nice to see him get off the schneid.

-- Your goal scorers so far in this series: Jason Chimera (2), Alex Ovechkin, Mike Knuble, John Carlson. That’s it. In three games. In more than 234 minutes of hockey. The Caps have hit more posts than twine.

-- If someone told you in, say, late January that the Caps would have the fifth best goalie in goals-against average and save percentage in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, and that he’d be the guy that was currently nursing a 3-3-0, 2.97, .894 mark for January in the AHL, would you have slowly backed away and called for medical assistance for that person?

-- Did you know that the top three players in hits for these playoffs are playing in this series? Ryan Callahan (50), Matt Hendricks (49), and Alex Ovechkin (45).

-- Meanwhile, the Rangers have the top two shot blockers: Dan Girardi (42) and Ryan McDonagh (33), but the Caps have three defensemen ranked 4-6: John Carlson (27), Karl Alzner (26), and Roman Hamrlik (26). Even Mike Green is in the top ten (20).

-- Avert your eyes, Caps fans… four Caps rank in the “top” six in giveaways: Roman Hamrlik (2nd), Mike Green (3rd), Alexander Semin (tied for 4th),and John Carlson (tied for 6th).

-- How much can a multi-overtime affect ice time rankings? Ten of the top 15 players in the playoffs in total ice time are playing in this series, six for the Rangers, four for the Caps. Seven of the ten are defensemen. Of course by this time, with teams having been eliminated, look at ice time per game. Only Ranger defensemen Ryan McDonagh (3rd) and Dan Girardi (5th) from this series are in the top dozen in average ice time. Karl Alzner has the most for the Caps (25:50/game; 14th).

-- Speaking of ice time, for all the pixels spent on how much Alex Ovechkin is getting, he ranks 27th among forwards in average ice time (20:45/game). Nine seconds more than Sidney Crosby had in his series against the Flyers (ok, Crosby didn’t play a three-overtime game).

-- And finally, there is this. Perhaps Caps fans should be thankful that the Caps did not win Game 3. When taking a 2-1 lead in games, the Caps are 1-3 in their last four such series (beat the Rangers last year, lost to Montreal (2010), Pittsburgh (2009), and Tampa Bay (2003)). On the other hand, the Caps have won the last two series in which they fell behind in games, 2-1. They beat Boston in the first round this season, and they beat the Rangers in the first round in 2009.

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 3: Rangers 2 - Capitals 1 (3OT)

Pat LaFontaine, Petr Nedved, Martin St. Louis.

To that short list you may now add Marian Gaborik. For the Washington Capitals every decade seems to have one. Pat LaFontaine scoring in a fourth overtime in the early morning on Easter Sunday in 1987. Petr Nedved scoring at the end of a power play in a fourth overtime in 1996. Martin St. Louis doing the same in a third overtime to clinch a series in 2003.

And last night, or should we say, “earlier this morning,” Marian Gaborik scored 14:41 into the third overtime to give the New York Rangers a 2-1 win over the Washington Capitals to take a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference semi-final series.

You know that video the Caps play in-game, the one where Al Pacino says…

“The inches we need are everywhere around us. They are in every break of the game, every minute, every second. On this team, we fight for that inch. On this team, we tear ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch. Because we know when we add up all those inches, that's gonna make the fucking difference between winning and losing! Between living and dying! I'll tell you this - in any fight, its the guy whose willing to die who's gonna win that inch. And I know if I'm going to have any life anymore, it's because I'm still willing to fight and die for that inch.”

Two inches decided this game, both of them inches the Caps could not cover. The final play started with Ranger defenseman Dan Girardi at the right wing wall in the offensive zone sending the puck deep and behind the Caps’ net. It found the stick of Brad Richards, where the first of the “inches” came into play. Richards slid a pass from behind the net to Gaborik that John Carlson was an inch from deflecting away from its intended target…

…and once on his stick, Gaborik redirected the puck between goalie Braden Holtby’s pads. Holtby managed to get the blade of his stick on the puck, but an inch or so short...

an inch that would have left the puck lying in front of him instead of trickling over the stick blade and over the goal line to end this marathon.

Other stuff…

-- This was the fourth game in Capitals history that went to a third overtime or longer. The Caps are 0-4 in those games, and in the case of the other three, they did not win another game in the series. Two were series clinchers (1987, 2003), the other (1996) was followed by two losses to close the series.

-- The Caps are now 0-2 in three-or-more-overtime games in which John Tortorella is the opponent’s coach (2003, Tampa Bay).

-- Defenseman Ryan McDonagh played 53:17 (or roughly four “Game 2” Alex Ovechkins). Defenseman Marc Staal played 49:34. All in all, five Rangers played more than 40 minutes of the 114:41 in this game. Question: Will this prove to by a Pyrrhic victory for the Rangers? Look it up, kids.

-- How do you deal with the withering forecheck of the Rangers? Hit ‘em back. The Caps had 59 hits in this game to 46 for the Rangers. Matt Hendricks had 11 by himself.

-- 115 shot attempts, 46 on goal…one goal.

-- Posts figure prominently in Capitals playoff overtime history. The game-winning, series-clinching goal by Pat LaFontaine that hit a post and deflected in being the obvious example. But Alex Ovechkin’s beating Henrik Lundqvist clean late in the first overtime and hitting the post, the puck deflecting away, will be the one Caps fans see in their nightmares if the Caps do not advance to the third round.

-- That is, if they don’t remember Dennis Wideman pinballing a shot off bodies in front of Lundqvist and off the post behind him – again deflecting away.

-- Mike Green has 23 shot attempts in this series, eight on goal, and nothing to show for it (12 attempts, five on goal last night).

-- Speaking of Green, the Core Four had 16 shots on goal (42 attempts)…no goals, noe point (Alexander Semin, an assist).

-- Jeff Schultz skated almost 32 minutes without attempting a shot, the only player on either team not to direct a puck toward the opposing net. But he wasn’t on ice for either Ranger goal, and that’s what he is paid to do.

In the end, there was something elemental about this game as it crept past the first overtime. For those Caps fans whose history with the sport parallels the “Rock the Red” era, welcome to hockey. You saw it in its purest form in overtime – less a “game” than a collection of individual shifts, shortened by fatigue, made simpler by trying to keep things as basic as possible.

Then again, you Caps fans of recent vintage, you got your baptism as Caps fans last night. Those of us who sat at Capital Centre in 1987, in the same building in 1996, and at MCI (now Verizon) Center in 2003 know the sting of a goal scored by the other guys deep into the night (or early into the morning), the silence that accompanies it, save for the whooping and hollering by the other guys celebrating their win. We know the feeling of, “it’s not over, right? That didn’t really happen, did it?” We look back clearly at the chances missed, the penalty shot in overtime that would have won the game (yes, the Caps did have one of those once), the shot after shot that the “hot goalie” for the other guys always managed to steer aside.

And now you have your game, too. Caps fans don’t often bounce their grandchildren on their knee retelling the tale of the big game the boys won years ago. They sit deep in their chair and talk softly about the one that got away. The shot off the post, the one that floated through a maze of bodies soft as a feather, the one that came after a too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty.

And now, the one that snuck through by a couple of inches.

What we hope this time around is that the Caps can write their own chapter of history and not merely add to the sad chapter titled, “Capitals Overtime Failures.” You can do this.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Game 3/Rangers at Capitals, May 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is Game 3 in the Eastern Conference semi-finals and only the second time in team history the Caps have played a game on May 2nd (the Caps didn’t play their first game in the month of May until 1990). In the only playoff game the Caps have played on May 2nd, Alexander Semin had a point in his sixth straight playoff game (4-5-9) in the 2009 Eastern Conference semi-finals against Pittsburgh, getting a pair of assists in a 3-2 Game 1 win.

Some other milestones along the way for the Caps and Capitals on May 2nd…

Troy Brouwer scored his first Stanley Cup playoff point in Game 2 of the 2009 Western Conference semi-finals against Vancouver (he had eight hits in the game, too).

Jason Chimera was born 33 years ago in Edmonton, AB.

The Caps won their last regular season game of the abbreviated 1994-1995 season, beating the Pittsburgh Penguins, 7-2, to finish the 48-game season with a 22-18-8 record. Peter Bondra and Ken Klee each had a pair of goals (so did Jaromir Jagr for the Penguins), and Olaf Kolzig stopped 36 of 38 shots for his second career win (he finished the season 2-8-2.

Meanwhile…

--Nine different Caps have points in the first two games of the series. Jason Chimera is the only one with two points, both of them goals.

--You might expect Alex Ovechkin to lead the team in shots. He does (eight). But Matt Hendricks second? That’s right, Hendricks’ five shots on goal is second on the club in this series.

-- Ovechkin leads in shot attempts (15), but John Carlson is second (12).

-- Hendricks leads the club in hits (eight), which is not too surprising. But Carlson is second (seven).

-- Jason Chimera has two shots on goal in the series so far. He has two goals.

Game1/Game 2…

-- In Game 1 the Caps failed on four power play opportunities to score a goal…in Game 2 they were 1-for-3.

-- In Game 1 the Caps allowed the first goal…in Game 2 they scored the first goal.

-- In Game 1 the Caps had as many blocked shots as the Rangers…in Game 2 they had more blocked shots than did the Rangers.

-- In Game 1 the Core Four was 0-0-0, minus-5, with six shots on goal…in Game 2 the Core Four was 1-1-2 (game-winning goal), plus-1, with 11 shots on goal.

-- In Game 1 …

…in Game 2

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider is 1-1-2 in the two games of this series so far, and although he did not get a point in Game 2 he was a factor, getting a breakaway chance as a Ranger penalty expired. He has two goals in the playoffs so far, both of them game winners, including his goal in Game 1 of this series. If he has not been the Rangers’ best player so far, he is on a short list. Players such as Kreider being as large a factor as they are is not unlike the problem the Caps had in the opening round series against Boston – production from down the roster as a reflection of depth. Kreider presents a different kind of problem in that there isn’t the book on him that the Caps might have had on the veteran Boston forwards. They need to figure it out. If he is a factor in this series going forward, it spells trouble for the Caps.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Now that the Caps are returning home, the players have to resist (tells us if you’ve heard this before) the temptation to open things up and play “cute.” So far in the playoffs, Alexander Semin has been one of those players who, perhaps unexpectedly, has been less prone to that problem…to a point. He has two goals in three games at Verizon Center, but he also has been on the ice for three of the nine goals scored against. Semin illustrates a point in that the Caps need to bring the same 200-foot game they have been playing on the road to their own rink.

Keys:

Look up above at the comparison of Game 1 to Game 2…do more of the Game 2 stuff (“Core Four” scoring, make the Rangers pay when they take penalties, get off to a good start…they usual stuff)

In the end, the team that wins this series is going to have a big advantage going forward. The margins for error are so small. All-time, NHL teams opening a seven-game series at home that take a 2-1 lead have a .758 winning percentage, and even teams opening a series on the road have a .604 winning percentage (whowins.com). The Caps should have learned enough of a lesson in the first round that merely being the home team counts for only so much, and as it turned out for most teams in the opening round, not much at all. Now it is time to put that home ice advantage they earned with the split in New York to good use.

Capitals 2 – Rangers 1

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 2: Capitals 3 - Rangers 2

The Washington Capitals beat the New York Rangers tonight in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal series, 3-2, and no doubt the buzz will be about a number – 13:36. That was the total ice time recorded by Alex Ovechkin in 60 minutes. But that’s just buzz. What mattered was his power play goal with 7:27 left in the game that served as the game-winner, his fifth career playoff game-winning goal.

It was as simple as it gets. Nicklas Backstrom won a faceoff cleanly to Ranger goalie Henrick Lundqvist’s right. The puck came to Ovechkin who circled high in the middle of the offensive zone. As Ovechkin was searching for a shooting lane, Troy Brouwer went to the net and set a screen in front of Lundqvist. Of more accurately, he bodied Ranger defenseman Ryan McDonagh to the top of the crease. Meanwhile, Brian Boyle was trying to get into Ovechkin’s shooting lane for a shot-block attempt, but Ovechkin’s quick release rendered Boyle more of a second screen in front of Lundqvist. The result was that the Ranger goalie never really got a good look at the puck until he was looking behind him at the biscuit in the back of the net.

Until then, this game had the look of one that the Caps would let get away. They scored first in the opening period when Mike Knuble does what he does – go to the net. When he arrived, so did a centering pass from Joel Ward from Lundqvist’s right. Knuble deposited the pass behind Lundqvist to complete the three-way passing play with Ward and Keith Aucoin to open the scoring, but it did not stop there.

Jason Chimera scored less than five minutes later to end a wild sequence. It started when John Carlson could not keep the puck in the Ranger zone at the end of a Caps power play. When the puck slid out of the zone, Chris Kreider was coming out of the penalty box and in perfect position to pick up the puck behind the Caps defense. He broke in alone on Holtby, but unlike his one-on-one drive that eluded Holtby in Game 1, Kreider could not get his shot past the Caps goalie, and the Caps started things the other way. The puck was sent deep into the Rangers’ end, but not in a place where Henrik Lundqvist could comfortably play it, the puck in the gray zone at the edge of the trapezoid of despair behind the Ranger net. It allowed Chimera to use his speed to snatch the puck away from Lundqvist and center it to Matt Hendricks. From the top of the crease Hendricks tried to backhand the puck through his legs into the open net, but only managed to smack a sliding Anton Stralman in the face with either the puck, his stick, or both on the shot as Henrik Lundqvist dove into the crease to get his paddle on the puck. But Lundqvist got tangled up with defenseman Ryan McDonagh, and the result was the puck rattling around among Chimera, McDonagh, and Lundqvist before it slid into the net.

It was the Caps’ second two-goal lead of the playoffs, their first in this series. However, they gave it back on a late first period 4-on-4 goal by Brad Richards and with a power play goal by Ryan Callahan in the third period. But the Caps buckled down on defense. After the Callahan goal at the 6:58 mark of the third period they did not allow a Ranger shot on goal before Ovechkin would net the game winner 5:35 later. Braden Holtby would stop all four shots he would face after that, and the crossbar would save another off the stick of Michael Del Zotto with 50 seconds left to secure the win.

Other stuff…

-- The odd story of this series so far has nothing to do with Rangers or Capitals, but with equipment. Specifically, the posts. If the Caps rattled metal in Game 1 to their misfortune, the Rangers returned the favor in this one (although Alex Ovechkin had one pipe-ringer in him). Michael Del Zotto hit a post and a cross-bar among his 13 – yes, 13 – shot attempts.

-- The big story, in addition to his game-winning goal, will be Alex Ovechkin’s ice time. The total 13:36 in ice time was a career low for Ovechkin for a game in which he finished (i.e., was not injured or ejected). It surpasses a 13:53 ice time effort against the Carolina Hurricanes on October 12, 2005, in his fifth career NHL game. His 10:36 in even strength ice time was ninth among Capital forwards for the game.

-- One might say that Ovechkin’s ice time was a product of protecting a late lead. Well, not exactly. In the first period he skated three shifts before Mike Knuble opened the scoring at the 12:20 mark, getting 1:49 in ice time. He had only 3:33 in ice time for the first period, although part of that is explained away by the fact that the Caps had 2:13 in shorthanded time to skate in that first period. In the second period, with no penalties called, Ovechkin had only 5:41 in ice time (more than half his even strength ice time for the game). In the third, one could see a “lead-protect” effect in that he skated only one shift in the last 7:27 after he scored his goal. His ice time is being heavily managed so he is not out there in what are “defensive” situations, but it is also being managed in other ways as well – he’s not getting as much as he is used to.

-- The Caps allowed another 4-on-4 goal last night. That makes three of the 20 total goals they have allowed so far in the playoffs. No team has allowed more goals at 4-on-4. They only have one goal scored of their own at 4-on-4, so the moral is, “knock it off.”

-- Give the Caps credit for at least getting shots to the net on their power play. They had seven on three man-advantages in 4:04 of ice time, five of them coming from the stick of Ovechkin. Conversely, he had only two even strength shots on goal in the 10:36 of even strength ice time he had.

-- The Rangers were credited with 45 hits. Twenty of those were applied to Capital defensemen. Some might think Mike Green was singled out for abuse, but in the official play-by-play he was the victim of three hits, none after the 19:47 mark of the first period (Green was called for a tripping call in response). Karl Alzner was the target of most of the hits applied to defensemen – seven – and it will be interesting to see if he is the continuing target of physical play in an effort to soften up his defense.

-- Nicklas Backstrom gets the all you can eat buffet coupon. An assists, two shot attempts (one on goal), two hits, a giveaway, two takeaways, two blocked shots, and he split 20 draws.

-- One of the ways the Caps can keep pucks from getting to goalie Braden Holtby is to keep the Rangers from getting offensive zone possession. In the game within a game, Brooks Laich was 5-for-6 on defensive zone draws, 4-of-5 against Brad Richards.

-- Chimera’s goal was, in part, a product of his speed to beat the Rangers’ defensemen to the end boards and take the puck from Lundqvist. But that play also involved some of the ugliest back checking imaginable by the Rangers, whose forwards on the play looked mesmerized by Chimera’s speed. Even as Chimera flicked the puck back in front to Matt Hendricks, no Ranger forward was close to being in the play from behind.

-- One might wonder why the Rangers bother to dress a fourth line. Stu Bickel, John Mitchell, and Mike Rupp skated a combined 11:20. And three Ranger defensemen skated more than 25 minutes (Del Zotto, McDonagh, and Marc Staal). If Alex Ovechkin’s “too little” ice time is an issue for the Caps, perhaps the Rangers’ management of ice time is going to be an issue late in this series, especially if they choose to apply a physical edge to their play.

-- The Caps are now 28-0-1 when leading after two periods for the season (they led 2-1 at the second intermission). Keep that in mind. Only six teams have won games so far in the playoffs when trailing at the second intermission through 55 games.

In the end, this is the way the Caps won games in the first round. It seems to be the way they are destined to win games going forward. They cash in on opportunities and hold on. They look like a team that can be had (and with a 5-4 record so far in the post season, it is not as if they can’t be), but they are proving to be a steely bunch in close game. They are giving themselves a chance to win every game, and when the goals are harder to come by, that is how a team can pile up just enough wins to advance. One hopes the Caps have three more like this in them, because it does not seem likely we are going to see much in the way of fireworks.

And that’s just fine.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Game 2/Capitals at Rangers, April 30

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Game 2 from MSG. The Washington Capitals conclude the first leg of their seven-game series against the New York Rangers with Monday’s Game 2 in Madison Square Garden. The Caps lost Game 1 to put themselves behind the eight-…

“Ahem….”

Behind the eight-ball. Even though…

“A-HEM!”

Uh…even though the Caps won the first round series against the Boston Bruins after losing the first…

“A-HEM!!!”

What?!

“Cuz… losing Game 1 to these guys ain’t that big a deal.”

It’s not that big a deal? But now the Caps have to…

“Cousin, take a breath. Cheerless was spending some time in the library back at the cabin, and…”

The “library,” Fearless?

“Well… the bathroom. It’s well-stocked with reading material. Anyway, he was thumbing through the Caps Media Guide, and…”

You guys run out of toilet paper?

“Can we continue?”

Sorry…

“Well, you tell him Cheerless.”

“Well, cuz, the Media Guide ain’t no good as TP…it’s too rough, and the cover pages slip out of your hand and…”

“Tell him what you FOUND, you idiot.”

“Oh, yeah… I was lookin’ at the game-by-game results, and you know we’ve played the Rangers more’n a few times in the playoffs. We even started three series against those guys in New York City, where I gotta tell ya, they really make awful picante sauce. It tastes like watery ketchup and it has this odd smell that…”

Can we?

“Oh, yeah. Anyway, there was the series back in ’94 when the Caps were up against the Rangers for the second round, and they lost the first game, 6-3. The Caps went on to lose that series, but hey, everyone lost to the Rangers that year. But in 1991 the Caps lost the first game of their first round series against the Rangers up at Madison Square Garden, 2-1 – sound familiar? – but they shut ‘em out in the next one, 3-0. And even though they got basted…”

“Wasted”

Pasted

“Whatever...even though they lost, 6-0, in Game 3 at home, they came back and won the next three games.”

“See, cousin? There are many games yet to be played before we know who will advance to the next round.”

I didn’t mean to suggest things were over after one game. But that was just one series a long time ago.

“Yeah, but then there was the series back in ‘90 when they were up there for two games to start the second round and had their lunch eaten right in front of them in Game 1, probably with that icky sauce on it, the stuff runs down yer fingers and gets all over…”

The game, Cheerless?

“Yeah, well like I was sayin’, the Caps lost that first game up there, 7-3. Mike Liut got lit up more’n me on New Year’s Eve at the still. Bernie Nichols had a hat trick, somebody named John Ogrodnick had a goal – is that a real name, ‘Ogrodnick?’ Or is that a sound you make when you eat too much of that New York picante sauce?”

Enough with the sauce!

“Even Mike Gartner had a goal, stickin’ it to his old teammates. You mighta thought, ‘shoot…we suck.’ But the Caps won Game 2. They got a hat trick of their own. John Druce had it. Sorta like ‘Druce on the loose.’ Hey, I’m pretty good, huh?”

I think it’s been taken, cuz.

“Anyway, Druce had a hat trick, Mike Ridley had a goal; Bob Joyce had one; and even coach Hunter had one. It was smooth sailin’ after that. The Caps came home and beat the Rangers like a red-headed stepchild, 7-1, then won a couple o’ overtime games, the last one on a goal by Druce. Ya know, he had nine goals in that series?”

A series for the ages.

“It makes ya wonder.”

Wonder about what, Cheerless?”

“What sauce was HE eatin’?"

We don’t know what was on John Druce’s menu during that 1990 second round series against the Rangers, but it would be nice if the Caps could find a sample of it before Game 2 on Monday night in New York.

However, there is a certain confidence that the Caps can do well in this series, and that 1990 series is why. History is never repeated, but it can offer hints about what can happen. In this case, let’s take a look at some things Joe Sexton of the New York Times had to say upon the conclusion of the series…

“The not-entirely-unrealistic current of excitement concerned a run by the Rangers at the Stanley Cup, and it both lighted up people's imaginations and crackled inside Madison Square Garden. There was, after all, no prohibitive favorite, no defending champion, no reason the Rangers couldn't dream like the other remaining National Hockey League teams.”

Even though the Rangers led the Eastern Conference in standings points in the 2011-2012 regular season, the Pittsburgh Penguins were the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup. They’re out. The Rangers – and the Caps, for that matter – can dream.

“The Capitals, who demonstrated the gifts of grit and passion throughout the series, accomplished with successive triumphs in overtime what had eluded them for their entire history as an organization and moved out of the Patrick Division.”

Grit? Passion? The Caps certainly had it in the first round this year, and they are traits that their head coach, Dale Hunter, brought to his game as a player back in 1990. The team seems to have adopted that attitude, although it was largely absent in Game 1. As for what eluded them for their entire history, the Caps are playing for a chance to advance to a conference final for only the third time in their history. If not unprecedented, it has been all too rare.

“The Capitals made everything tough for the Rangers in the series. They outhit them in all three zones and in every game. They rocked them in the second and third games of the series, outscoring them by 13-4, knocking them off their feet and off their game plan. And then they devastated them with consecutive triumphs in overtime.

“’I can't say enough about how well so many of them played,' James Patrick said of the Capitals. ‘Are they the better team? Right now, they are. Maybe a month ago they weren't, or a month from now they wouldn't be. But they are now. It was closer than a 4-1 series, but you certainly can't argue with the result.’”

A month ago, not many people would have given the Caps much of a chance to have advanced to the second round. It wasn’t a given that they would even make the playoffs. But they played hard-nosed hockey in the first round against the defending champions, and they are going to have to do it again if they are to get past the 2011-2012 regular season champions in the Eastern Conference.


The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Brad Richards

This is why they pay him the big bucks. Brad Richards is 3-3-6 in eight games so far in these playoffs and is 2-3-5 in his last five games, having a hand in half of the Rangers’ ten goals in that span. He has been in the middle of things at the other end, too, having been on the ice for five goals against in eight games, tied for tops among Ranger forwards. His goal against the Caps in Game 1 had the look of a veteran taking advantage of a rookie goalie’s wandering focus, and the Caps had success in keeping the Boston top line in check for most of the Boston series. If the Caps can get Braden Holtby back on track and apply the stifling defense they exhibited against the Bruins in Game 2 against the Rangers, Richards would not seem likely to get a point in consecutive games for the first time since March 30th.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

So, is there a “John Druce” waiting in the wings? Druce was in his second year with the Caps in 1990 and had a somewhat disappointing season in that he made no apparent progress from his first season. He was 8-7-15, plus-7 in 48 games in 1988-1989, his first season with the Caps after being a 40th overall draft pick in 1985. Then, he finished the 1989-1990 regular season 8-3-11, minus-3 in 45 games shuttling between the Caps and the Balitmore Skipjacks of the AHL. So, is there a somewhat underachieving sophomore who was a high draft pick who might provide a spark for the Caps? “Underachieving” is perhaps a harsh term for Marcus Johansson, a youngster who had 46 points in the regular season (tied for third on the team), but in his last 17 games (regular season and playoffs) he is 2-6-8, minus-5. There is a lot of “minus” in there (eight games in 17 on the wrong side of the ledger. Being “Druce-like” isn’t going to mean nine-goals in five games; this is an entirely different NHL. In this instance it means making a difference at both ends on a consistent basis, and Johansson certainly has the skill and the smarts to do just that.

Keys:

1. Recess is over. OK, the Caps had a tough seven-game series with Boston, and they looked as if they were suffering a hangover from it in Game 1. That has to be the end of it. That means they have to impose their will on the game from the start. The defense that limited the Rangers to 14 shots would be nice to see repeated, but the Caps have to do a much better job of taking the initiative to go to the net to do better than 18 shots on Henrik Lundqvist.

2. Don’t be coy, decoy. In Game 7 of the Boston series, Alex Ovechkin had two shots on goal. In Game 1 of this series he had one shot on goal. He is still the straw that stirs the drink. But right now this drink has no fizz. He needs to be stirring with more energy. He’s not a decoy.

3. Focus. It goes without saying that the Caps need more focus in goal than they got from Braden Holtby in Game 1. That should not be a problem, but the other side of the equation is that the Caps have to remember what worked in front of Holtby in the Boston series – clearing first shots away after Holtby made the save. That requires focus from the defense, too. Don’t forget what got you here.

In the end, according to the Web site whowins.com, NHL teams losing Game 1 of a second round best-of-seven series has won the series 31.4 percent of the time. When losing both Games 1 and 2 of the series that percentage drops to 16.2 percent. Given the way the first round went for home teams (not well – 18-30 in games overall), one is tempted to say, “history?...bah.” But having to win four of five remaining games would still be a daunting task. The Caps have been here before – just a couple of weeks ago, in fact. They can do this.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 1: Rangers 3 - Capitals 1

OK, that was a punch in the nose.

The Washington Capitals dropped Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semi-finals matchup with the New York Rangers yesterday by a 3-1 margin. It nip and tuck (and zzzzz) for 40 minutes, but the Rangers took advantage of goalie Braden Holtby for a pair of goals in the last 20 minutes for the win at Madison Square Garden.

It was one of the strangest performances by a Caps team in the playoffs in recent memory. Perhaps it was a product of the both teams having to grind out Game 7 wins just days ago, maybe it was the afternoon setting. But the teams could manage only ten shots between them in the first period, only 11 between them in the second. In that second period, the Caps made the first of what would be three mistakes of consequence when Artem Anisimov circled out from behind the Washington net with the puck.

Mike Green was draped all over Anisimov in what looked “footballish” in this respect. In football, a defender is often cautioned to take on a ball-carrier low in making a tackle. Taking on the ball-carrier high gives the ball-carrier leverage to add on additional yards. Here, Green tied up Anisimov high and even had inside position on him. But Anisimov used his greater size to obtain leverage, and with his hands and stick free, was able to snap a shot at Holtby from in close as he came around the left post. Holtby seemed surprised by the shot and did not close the hole between his left arm and body fast enough to prevent the puck from sneaking in.

The Caps tied things up on a prettier play in the last seconds of the period when Brooks Laich carried the puck down the right wing through the neutral zone. Jason Chimera was on his left, steaming down the middle of the ice. It looked harmless enough with Marc Staal marking Laich and Dan Girardi guarding Chimera. The wild card was Chimera’s superior speed. As Laich crossed the blue line, Chimera found a higher gear that Girardi didn’t have. He gained separation from the defender, and Laich found him with a fine saucer pass. Chimera had only to redirect the pass past goalie Henrik Lundqvist, and he did just that with 3.5 seconds left on the clock.

It might have made for some momentum-building excitement for the Caps, but it would be the Rangers that would take control of the game in a 90-second span of time in the third period. The game-winning play started in the Caps’ end when Derek Stepan collected he puck along the right wing wall and started up ice. He found exiting the zone a bit easier when Ryan Callahan set a moving pick on Marcus Johansson to deny Johansson the chance to interrupt Stepan’s forward motion. Stepan cashed in on the opportunity, breaking out of the zone and finding Chris Kreider breaking down the middle while the Caps were bollixing up a line change. Stepan wired a pass through as Kreider was breaking between Green and Roman Hamrlik. That was all the advantage Kreider needed as he sped in and rifled a shot past between Holtby’s left pad and glove that the young goalie would probably like to have back.

Just a minute and half later, Brad Richards took advantage of Holby when the veteran picked up a loose puck along the left wing wall and walked out showing “pass.” The ruse worked as Richards inched in, looked right, then pulled the puck back and beat Holtby through his pads to give the Rangers some insurance. Needing two goals to keep the game going, the Caps would manage only one shot on the Ranger net after that, and Game 1 belonged to the Rangers.

Other stuff…

-- The 14 shots on goal allowed by the Caps is a new franchise record for fewest shots allowed in a road playoff game. They allowed 15 to the New York Islanders in a 2-1 loss in Game 3 of the 1985 Patrick Division semi-finals.

-- Fifteen of 18 Caps had shots on goal. That means that no one had too many. In fact, 13 Caps had one shot on goal, sort of the “Whitman’s Sampler” of shooting confections.

-- Speaking of shots, Alex Ovechkin did not attempt a shot until the 8:05 mark of the second period. He recorded his only shot on goal at the 49-second mark of the third period. He is going to have to be more dynamic in his offensive effort if the Caps are going to win this series.

-- Holtby acknowledged after the game that he was not sufficiently engaged, and he paid the rookie’s price for letting his focus wander. The two goals in the third, perhaps products of worn-off adrenaline and focus creep, looked like products of his youth. Learning how to manage a game like this with these stakes is part of a crash course in goaltending at the NHL level that Holtby is still taking.

-- Of the Caps’ 49 shot attempts, 25 of them came from defensemen (five of the 18 shots on goal). Caps’ forwards are going to have to do a better job of creating traffic in front of Henrik Lundqvist to tip shots or collect rebounds. Clean first shots aren’t going to be beating this guy often.

-- The Caps were 5-for-15 on faceoffs in the offensive end; 11-for-17 in the defensive zone. Hard for either team to get started when neither one starts too often with the puck in control.

-- Good Sasha…three shots on goal (led the team), a hit, a takeaway. Bad Sasha… two penalties, one an offensive zone tripping call early in the third period after the Caps scored that tying goal in the last seconds of the second period.

-- The Caps certainly consumed more than their minimum daily requirement of iron in this one. We counted at least four instances of a Cap beating Lundqvist and hitting a post or a crossbar. But that’s hockey. It does, however, provide an ominous tone going forward for the Rangers. The Caps have displayed a knack for beating Lundqvist, and when four of the 16 missed shots had sound effects, you have to wonder if the posts will be as forgiving for the Rangers moving forward.

-- The Caps held Ranger forwards to eight shots on goal, only seven of them at even strength. If the Caps do that over a series, they should win. They should not count on it.

In the end, you could say that the Rangers’ late season rookie addition – Chris Kreider (1-1-2) – was better than the Caps’ late season rookie addition – Braden Holtby (11 saves on 14 shots). But the Caps lacked the energy and focus that they had late in the series against Boston. Perhaps this is only natural. Even in the playoffs, there has to be a let-down after winning a Game 7 on the road in overtime. And, the Rangers after all merely held serve. The Caps still have an opportunity to get a foothold in this series on Monday night if they can beat Henrik Lundqvist without the sound effects. It isn’t as if they haven’t done it before.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Capitals vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, the view is nicer from up here in the second round, even if it isn’t new.

The Washington Capitals defied the prognostications of so-called experts (yours truly excepted) to advance to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals where they will meet a familiar adversary – the New York Rangers (cue the low, ominous baritone of Wes Johnson… “the Noooo Yo-o-o-o-ork Ran-n-n-n-gers).

Yup, the Blueshirts again for the third time in four years. The difference this time is that roles are reversed. Instead of the Caps facing the Rangers as a two-versus-seven or one-versus-eight seed, the Caps are the ones looking up as a seven-versus-one seed in the second round.

Only twice in franchise history have the Caps entered the playoffs coming off a seventh-place finish in the Eastern Conference, and only once did they do so and advance to the second round. They did that in 1994… against the Rangers. It did not go well.

In 1994 the Rangers has players such as Mark Messier, Adam Graves, Brian Leetch, Alex Kovalev, and Mike Gartner (ok, they traded him to Toronto for Glenn Anderson, another name you might recognize). They had Mike Richter in goal. The Caps? Well, they had Mike Ridley, Dmitri Khristich, Michal Pivonka, and Randy Burridge (oh, and a young Peter Bondra). They had Don Beaupre in goal. Nice players, but with the exception of Bondra, do you seen anyone close to being a hall of famer in there?

The results were predictable. The Rangers won the first three games by a combined score of 14-5 and coasted to a five-game series win – a speed bump on their road to a Stanley Cup.

But there is that whole familiarity thing of more recent vintage. The Caps own an 8-4 record against New York in the last two meetings of these teams in the playoffs, a 4-3 series win in 2009 and a 4-2 series win last spring. In doing so, they outscored the Rangers by a 32-19 margin in the 12 games and shut them out three times.

The View from 30,000 feet

(click pics for larger images)

Offense

The Rangers are not as offensively-challenged as they might have been when entering the playoffs in 2009 (28th in goals per game) or 2011 (14th), but this is not a juggernaut, either (11th this past regular season). However, they seem to have picked a bad time to channel their inner offensive demons. In the first round the Rangers managed only 14 goals (2.00 per game) and scored more than three only once, in Game 1, against the Ottawa Senators, a team that finished 24th in the regular season in goals allowed per game.

One problem for the Rangers has been getting started in the first place. They were 26th in the league during the regular season in first period goals scored and managed only four such goals in the seven games of the opening round against Ottawa. Only four teams scored fewer, including Ottawa, and three of them played only five games.

The Rangers also have suffered a lack of secondary scoring. They got no goals from Artem Anisimov, Ruslan Fedotenko, Brandon Dubinsky, or Carl Hagelin (when he wasn’t suspended) in the first round. Their primary scoring wasn’t that productive, either. Marian Gaborik had but one goal in seven games, that coming in Game 1 against the Senators. The total effect is that the Rangers have the worst shooting percentage of any team advancing to the second round (6.7 percent).

On the other hand, the Capitals were hardly burning out bulbs on the scoreboard in the first round, either. They scored 16 goals against the Boston Bruins. If the Capitals’ offense was geography, it would look like the South Pacific Ocean – little dots of land representing goals on an ocean of minutes. Only twice in 21 regulation periods of hockey did the Caps manage as many as two goals in a period, both coming in their 4-3 win in Boston in Game 5 (periods two and three).

The Caps have had the blessing of a certain sort of “balance” in their playoff scoring – 12 players account for the 16 goals. But the other side of that coin is that there have been no flurries from the players you might expect them from. Alexander Semin has three goals, a respectable total for seven games, but Alex Ovechkin has two (both in losses), and his Core Four running mates Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green have one apiece.

The Caps problems have been reflected in a manner different from the Rangers. Where the Rangers have a hard time getting started, the Caps had a hard time reaching any level of sustainable production on a period to period basis. Their scoring by period was four goals in the first period, six in the second, four in the third, and two in overtime. The effect of all of this is that the Caps finished sixth among the eight second round contestants with a 7.7 percent shooting percentage.

Defense

If the offenses were unproductive in the first round, then it only makes sense that the defenses for these teams were quite capable. Otherwise, we’re not writing this wordy tome. And they were.

The Rangers held the Ottawa Senators to a measly 13 goals and never allowed more than two goals in regulation in the seven-game series. Part of it was holding the Senators to a manageable number of shots (29.7/game; fifth fewest among the second round teams). Part of it was holding the big scorers away from shots on goal. Part of it was making sure guys who should score didn’t get the chance. For instance, Jason Spezza had a hand in five of the Senators’ 13 goals for the series (38.5 percent), not altogether different from his regular season mark (34.6 percent). Same for Daniel Alfredsson (24.3 percent in the regular season and 25.0 percent of the goals scored by Ottawa in the four games in which he played). But Erik Karlsson? He was in on 32.1 percent of the Senators’ goals in the regular season, only 7.7 percent (one goal) against the Rangers. Milan Michalek – 24.7 percent of Ottawa goals in the regular season, only 15.4 percent (a goal and an assist). The Rangers get good goaltending, and we will get to that, but they do a good job limiting occasions of pucks getting to their net by dangerous players, too.

The Caps held the defending Stanley Cup champions – a team that averaged 3.17 goals per game in the regular season (tied for second) – to 15 goals in seven games (2.14 a game). They held the Bruins to a shooting percentage of 6.1 percent in the seven-game series win, when Boston came into the series with a 9.8 percent shooting percentage for the season. Part of that was the unexpected goaltending of Braden Holtby, but much of it was a relentless effort in keeping the Bruins on the perimeter, denying them the opportunity to pack forwards in close to hammer away at rebounds or deflect shots. Nothing illustrates the concept like the shot chart from Game 7:

Only six of 32 shots were taken from the “home plate” high opportunity scoring area. Rare is the team that can get that few close-in looks at the net and find the back of it with any frequency. The Caps ability to sustain this kind of frustrating long-range look at their net relives young Holtby of the responsibility for making big saves or from having to repel flurries of shots.

But the Caps are going to have to deal with a problem that they managed to dodge in Round 1. That would be the third defense pairing. John Carlson and Karl Alzner were not efficient, at least as measured by their Corsi On-Ice numbers at five-on-five, but they were effective – four goals scored against while on ice in an average of 143:03 in ice time at even strength between them for the series. Mike Green (three goals against on ice) and Roman Hamrlik (four) seem to have developed an easy chemistry between them. But Dennis Wideman was on ice for eight of the 12 even strength goals scored by the Bruins, and his partner was not a given, either. Jeff Schultz was his partner for four games (on ice for four goals against), John Erskine for the other three (three goals against on ice). This is the soft underbelly of the defense, and the series could turn on whether the Caps can hide this problem or if Dennis Wideman becomes more effective in his own end of the ice on a more consistent basis.

Special Teams

The Rangers solved Ottawa for five power play goals in 32 opportunities – 15.63 percent. For the regular season they were 44-for-280 – 15.71 percent. They have been nothing if not consistent. But what has been striking in the Rangers’ post season is that volume counts. Twice they were awarded seven power plays in their first-round series against Ottawa, and on both occasions scored twice with the man advantage. In the other five games they had four or fewer power play chances and were a combined 1-for-18. What might be most surprising is that Anton Stralman, who had no power play goals and only four power play assists in 53 regular season games, has two power play goals and an assist among the five Ranger power play goals so far. Is that sustainable, and if not, does Marian Gaborik get untracked (no power play goals in more than 35 minutes of power play ice time in the opening round)?

On the penalty kill the Rangers were reasonably effective in the Ottawa series (84.6 percent), but they have allowed power play goals in each of the last two games in a total of seven opportunities for the Senators. Three of the four power play goals they allowed in the series either tied games of gave the Senators the lead. And the other – by Daniel Alfredsson in Game 7 – came barely two minutes after the Rangers took a 2-0 lead. None of these goals were window dressing.

For the Caps, the issue was less efficiency (15.8 percent in the Boston series, eighth among the 16 teams) than effectiveness (they had only 19 opportunities in seven games – no team had fewer opportunities per game). This has been an issue all season; only three teams had fewer power play opportunities in the regular season. They were “out-opportunitied” in five of the seven games against Boston in the opening round (including all three losses). They were not appreciably more successful against the Rangers in drawing opportunities, making their 2-for-11 mark in four games look decent enough (18.2 percent), but not especially effective.

On the penalty kill, the Caps were very efficient in the Boston series – 91.2 percent on 21-for-23 (second among the 16 playoff teams). What contributed to the efficiency was the Caps’ ability to limit shots. Boston had only 27 shots in almost 42 minutes of power play time for the series. It was part of an inside-out defensive approach that kept the Bruins to the outside. If they can repeat this performance against the Rangers, the New Yorkers have not displayed the sort of consistency of success on the power play to suggest they will be any more successful against Washington than the Bruins were.

The Season Series

Game 1: November 25th, Rangers 6 – @Capitals 3

This game gave no early indications it would be either high-scoring or a blow-out. The teams split 16 shots in the first period, none of them finding the back of the net. The close, low-scoring game dissolved under a barrage of Ranger goals early in the second period. Three Ranger goals in a space of 4:22 let the Rangers pull away, or so one might have thought. Troy Brouwer scored 58 seconds after the third Ranger goal, and John Carlson scored on a power play four minutes later to get the Caps within a goal. But Brian Boyle scored when Michal Neuvirth fumble a puck out of his glove with 3:11 left in the period to provide some breathing room Brad Richards scored early in the third to restore the Rangers’ three goal lead. Alex Ovechkin and Ruslan Fedotenko provided some window dressing for the final score. The Caps were held to 21 shots. Bruce Boudreau was relieved of his coaching duties a few days later.

December 28th: Game 2: @Washington 4 – Rangers 1

The Caps and Rangers exchanged first period goals, but mid-way through the second John Carlson dipped low to keep a puck from exiting the offensive zone, regained his stance and fired a shot at the Ranger net that Troy Brouwer redirected past goalie Martin Biron to give the Caps a 2-1 lead that they would not relinquish. Alexander Semin added a pair of goals, while Tomas Vokoun stopped 21 of 32 shots.

Game 3: February 12th, @Rangers 3 – Capitals 2

This one was the Ryan and Ryan show for the Rangers. Ryans Callahan and McDonagh sandwiched a goal by Alexander Semin to give the Rangers a 2-1 lead through two periods. Brandon Prust scored what would be the game-winning goal in the seventh minute of the third period, converting pass a 2-on-1 shorthanded rush from Brandon Dubinsky. John Carlson got the Caps within a goal with under three minutes left, but the Caps would get no closer.

Game 4: April 7th, Capitals 4 - @Rangers 1

In the season finale at Madison Square Garden, the Caps made an early statement in this one. Alex Ovechkin scored 32 seconds into the first period, and Mathieu Perreault potted one less than two minutes later. John Carlson scored on a late power play to give the Caps a 3-0 lead after 20 minutes. The teams exchanged goals in the second period, the Caps getting theirs from Nicklas Backstrom, his first since missing 40 games from a concussion. Braden Holtby stopped 35 of 36 shots for the win in which the Caps registered only 17 shots of their own.

The Competition:

Washington: 16-10-4 against Eastern Conference playoff teams
New York: 20-12-2 against Eastern Conference playoff teams

Goaltending

New York – Henrik Lundqvist (season series): 2-1-0, 3.00, .859; Martin Biron (season series): 0-1-0, 4.01, .826
Washington -- Braden Holtby (season series): 1-0-0, 1.00, .972; Michal Neuvirth: 0-2-0, 4.53, .852; Tomas Vokoun: 1-0-0, 1.00, .969

This is something of an odd matchup. The Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist – a Hart Trophy finalist and duly recognized as one of the top goalies in the game – has been quite mortal against the Caps in his last two playoff series: 4-8, 2.64, .912, with one shutout. That 3.00 goals against average and .859 save percentage during the regular season suggest that the Caps might just be one of those teams that knows where the holes are. On the other hand, there is Braden Hotlby with just two career appearances against the Rangers in which he is 1-0-1, 0.96, .969, his loss coming in a Gimmick decision in January 2011. If one just looked at the names, one might think the Rangers have a distinct advantage. Lundqvist is certainly capable of carrying his team through a series, and his 1.40 GAA and .945 save percentage against Ottawa is evidence of that. And Braden Holby certainly could wake up one morning to find that the coach carrying him through these playoffs so far has turned into a pumpkin. But things are not at cut and dried as one might think just looking at the names.

Coaching

John Tortorella has a Stanley Cup on his resume. That’s the good part. Since he won that Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2004, his record is 11-19 (including the game he missed for improper use of a water bottle), the series win over Ottawa being his first since that Stanley Cup final in 2004. His team is certainly a reflection of his style – feisty, offer no quarter, hard working. He is also 0-for-2 in playoff series against the Caps as the Rangers’ bench boss. You can almost see him baring his teeth at the prospect of reversing that record.

Behind the other bench, Dale Hunter now has an NHL playoff series win under his belt. However he is doing it, and at times it is a wonderment (Exhibit 1: Alex Ovechkin’s even strength ice time), he is doing it. The Caps are in some ways an embodiment of his playing style – feisty, offer no quarter, hard working (just without the chippiness, although the Boston Bruins, their media, and their fans might disagree). Neither he nor Tortorella impress us as being big “x’s and o’s” coaches. They seem to be more motivators, Tortorella with an in-your-face style, Hunter by way of example and persuading his team that they can win sacrificing run-and-gun for “mind your P’s and Q’s.”

Stars Who Must be Stars

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Now we are getting to the nub of it. Ovechkin did not have an impressive series against Boston. In fact, he looked to be a cog instead of the axle around which the Caps turn. Maybe it was a product of ice time, maybe it was a product of his trying to assimilate “Hunter Hockey” into his repertoire. But he is 15-14-29 in 28 career games against the Rangers with six power play goals. In 12 playoff games against the Blueshirts he is 6-7-13. He is going to need to approach those numbers on a per-game basis if the Caps are to move on.

New York: Marian Gaborik

Marian Gaborik has 105 goals in 220 regular season games with the Rangers. He has two goals in 12 playoff games. If that kind of disparity carries over into this series, the Rangers face an uphill climb to advance. He does not have big numbers against the Caps over his career: 7-3-10 in 17 games, one of those goals coming in the 6-3 win over Washington on November 25th. He does not come into this series on much of a hot streak. He scored a goal in Game 1 against Ottawa, but failed to record another on any of his nine shots in the last six games of the series. The number that sticks out there is “nine.” If the Caps hold him to a shot and a half a game in this series, it bodes well for the Caps.


Guys Who Might Be Heroes

Washington: Mike Green

It pays to listen to your Uncle Peerless here. We had this one nailed in Round 1. Now listen up. It might seem odd to see Mike Green here, given his pedigree. But Green has morphed into more of a defensive defenseman. In the Boston series he had one goal in seven games on only 11 shots, a far cry from the guy who had 31 goals in the 2008-2009 season and had consecutive seasons of better than a point a game. But this is “Game Over Green,” too, with five goals and 13 points in 17 career games against New York. Two of those five goals are game-winners. The Caps do not need him to be the Mike Green of 2008-2009, but if they get any little bit more production from him than what he provided in the first round, it could spell doom for the Rangers.

New York: Carl Hagelin

Carl Hagelin, a sixth-round draft pick in 2007, finished seventh among rookies in goal scoring this season. His speed and ability to find the back of the net might spell trouble for the Caps. However, he has not recorded a goal since March 15th (16 games). He has yet to score a goal against Washington (0-1-1 in four games) and is a minus-4. It suggests that the other side of that scoring coin is that he and his linemates can be exploited at the other end of the rink. Does he have the physical stature to be able to compete with larger Washington forwards?

In the end…

The Rangers come into this game as, if not a prohibitive favorite, then a solid one. We’re puzzled as to why. This is a team that has more consistent goaltending than the Boston team the Caps faced in Round 1, but goaltending that has come up short against the Caps in playoffs past. The Rangers do not have the depth or physicality on the blue line that the Bruins brought to the rink, and they do not have the depth of scoring at forward. Further, Brian Boyle, who has been something of an unsung hero against the Caps (5-5-10 in 13 career games against Washington), is of uncertain status after being concussed by a Chris Neil hit last weekend.

The Caps are 2-1 against the Rangers under Dale Hunter, having allowed only five goals in the process. The Rangers could certainly win this series, but it is a reach to think they could do it in short order. Rather, the Caps, who eliminated this team in five games last spring, have the pieces to make this series difficult for the Rangers. And New York is on quite a “meh” streak of their own. They wrapped up the regular season with a 5-4-0 record, four of those wins coming against a succession of tomato cans (Toronto, Minnesota, Winnipeg, and Montreal), then struggled mightily against the Senators in the first round, getting three of their four wins by one goal.

This will be another series in which the Caps are given little chance to move on. But move on they will.

Capitals in six

Have Faith