2011-2012 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

Theme: “There are certain queer times and occasions in this strange mixed affair we call life when a man takes his whole universe for a vast practical joke."

-- Herman Melville

(click pic for larger image)

What a strange affair the 2010-2011 season was for John Carlson. As we pointed out in our look at Carlson and his tens at the end of last season…

"Among Washington defensemen, Carlson…

-- Tied for the team lead in games played (82, with Karl Alzner)

-- Was second in goals scored (seven, to Mike Green’s eight)

-- Led the team in assists (30) and overall scoring (37 points)

-- Led in plus-minus (plus-21)

-- Led in game-winning goals (three)

-- Led in shots on goal (144)

-- Was second in total average ice time per game (22:38, among defensemen playing at least 20 games for the Caps)

-- Led in blocked shots (160)

-- Led in takeaways (60)

Among his rookie defenseman cohorts, Carlson…

-- Was the only one to play in all 82 games (P.K. Subban was next with 77 games played)

-- Tied for fourth in goals

-- Tied for second in assists

-- Finished fourth in total points

-- Tied for first in game winning goals (with Cam Fowler and Subban)

-- Was second in shots on goal (to Subban)

-- Was second in plus-minus (to Adam McQuaid)

-- Finished first in total average ice time per game

-- Finished first in blocked shots

-- Finished first in takeaways"

One might have though Carlson would trace further upward his developmental arc this season. And in fact, in his first three ten-game segments of the season it look as if Carlson would do just that. He was 5-15-20, plus-5 – a 14-41-55, plus-27 pace. And had he finished along those lines, he would have ended up fifth in goal scoring among all defensemen, tied for third in assists, second in total points, and tied for third in plus-minus.

The operative phrase in that last sentence is, “had he finished along those lines.”

What happened after is part confounding, part confirming. And what happened is this. Carlson played the last 52 games of the season to a line of 4-8-12, minus-20. That is a 6-13-19, minus-32 pace. In scoring it resembles more Jan Hejda (5-14-19) than a top-five scorer. And that minus-32 pace, had he finished the season there, would have ranked 296th of 297 defensemen. That’s right, only Milan Jurcina (minus-34) would have been between Carlson and last in the league that measure. As it was, he finished 276th. This is not the territory one would have thought John Carlson would be found this season, not after being named to the league’s All-Rookie Team as a defenseman in 2010-2011.  Here is how last season compared to this for Carlson:

That’s the confounding part. Well, part of it. Another part of it is that he should have played to such a level of performance for Dale Hunter, who was his coach at London in the Ontario Hockey League for 59 games in the regular season (16-60-76, plus-23) and 14 playoff games (7-15-22, plus-11) in 2008-2009. But that brings us, perhaps, to the “confirming” part, Playing defense in the NHL is hard. There is a long learning curve for the position.

But just for kicks, we took a look at hall of fame defensemen over the last 50 seasons in their rookie and second full seasons. The misfortune that befell Carlson is not the norm among that group, but it is not unheard of, either, for a defenseman to make a splash in his first season and regress in his second, even among defensemen who would reach the Hockey Hall of Fame. Of 17 defensemen in that group, two names you might recognize stumbled in their second season:

Part of that could be the quality of teams on which they played, but Leetch’s Rangers had 82 standings points in his rookie season (1988-1989) and 85 points the following year. Murphy’s Los Angeles Kings did drop from 99 points in his 1980-1981 rookie season to 63 points the following year. Sometimes it is quality of team, sometimes not. It is all part of the odd mix of the position.


Odd Carlson Fact… Competition apparently motivates Carlson. Against the other 15 teams qualifying for the playoffs this season he was 5-12-17, even, in 41 games. Against the other 14 teams that did not qualify for the post season he was 4-11-15, minus-15, in 41 games. That could be a team effect on plus-minus, but the difference is stark. And if you think there is a “Western Conference” factor in this, he was 2-3-5, plus-2, in eight games against Western Conference playoff qualifiers that do not play in California (where or against whom the Caps generally fare poorly; he was 0-0-0, minus-5 in three games against San Jose and Los Angeles).

Game to Remember… December 7, 2011. After falling behind the Ottawa Senators, 2-1, just before the second intermission at Scotiabank Place, the Caps roared back with three goals, Carlson assisting on two of them. He added an empty net goal for insurance and to cap one of two three-point nights he had on the season. Coincidentally, his other three point night took place in the Caps’ previous game, a 5-4 loss to the Florida Panthers in which Carlson assisted on the Caps’ last three goals as part of a furious comeback from what was a 5-1 Panther lead 39 minutes into the game.

Game to Forget… March 27, 2012. In his first seven shifts against the Buffalo Sabres at Verizon Center, Carlson was on the ice for three goals, and one of the shifts in which he was not on the ice lasted all of eight seconds (another shift lasted eight seconds, and a goal was scored by the Sabres). This would be called a “bad start.” He was thereafter stapled to the bench for long stretches, getting only 8:19 of ice time in the last 37:29 of the game in a 5-1 loss.

Post Season… Both Carlson and Karl Alzner were on ice for 11 of the 30 goals allowed by the Caps in the post-season (tied for second among Caps defensemen), but this is deceiving. Both he and Alzner skated to an average of more than 24 minutes a night for 14 games (tops on the team), and both skated more than two and a half minutes a night killing penalties (also tops on the team). On a club that played 13 one-goal games in 14 contests, every shift was critical, and Carlson and Alzner got most of the ones that could be called “most critical.” Of 38 defensemen having played in at least ten games in these playoffs, In the playoffs Carlson displayed both the talent he displayed in his rookie year and offered a glimpse into his future.

In the end, it is tempting to think that Carlson’s last 50 games were the product of youth, the difficulties of the position, and intermittent lack of focus. That he would play as well as he did against better competition during the regular season and raise his game in the playoffs lends credence to this view. He is, if not yet a “core” player (we would like to see an improvement next season and more consistency throughout for that), he is a “foundational” one, along with his frequent partner, Karl Alzner. If he can display that consistency and the level of performance he displayed early and late in the season, he might fulfill the promise suggested in Elliotte Friedman’s “30 Thoughts” for CBC.ca… “Even referees think John Carlson is going to win a Norris Trophy someday.”

Grade: C+

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

Theme: “A man's accomplishments in life are the cumulative effect of his attention to detail.”
-- John Foster Dulles

(click pic for larger image)

The arc of Karl Alzner’s career is not that meteor flashing across the sky and gone in an instant. It is that jet flying through the night, the light moving quietly across the night sky, moving relentlessly forward and making constant progress toward its destination. And what he has become as a product of that steady progress is as solid a defensemen and one could want for a team that has spent the last two seasons remaking itself into a defensively responsible club.

Drilling through the numbers, you can start with the fact that he led the team in plus-minus. Not only did he lead the team, he did so at just about every milepost for the season – tied for first after 10 games, first after 20 games, first after 30 games, after 40 games… See a pattern? There were some hiccups along the way. He was a minus-2 over his fourth ten-game installment of the season (minus-5 over the last four games of that stretch, during which the Caps went 2-2-0 and allowing 13 goals, seven of which he was on ice for). He also had a minus-5 in his sixth ten-game installment, all of which was a product of the last five games of that run, during which he was on ice for nine of 18 goals scored.

But the occasional – in fact infrequent – such hiccup is part of Alzner’s competition profile. Of Capitals defensemen playing in at least 30 games this season he faced the stiffest competition at 5-on-5 (behindthenet.ca). He had the highest Corsi value relative to quality of competition. Despite facing that high quality of competition, he had the second best on-ice save percentage against, and he had the second-highest “PDO” at 5-on-5 (shooting percentage plus save percentage). This simple measure is a transparent expression of efficiency. When factoring in the quality of competition faced by Alzner, he stood at the top of the Capitals blueline corps in terms of efficiency this season.

And it is not as if Alzner suddenly blossomed. Working backward, that PDO value at 5-on-5 in 2010-2011 was virtually identical (1018) to that which he posted this season (1017). He was tops on the team in quality of competition faced in 2010-2011 and in Corsi value relative to quality of competition. His save percentage on-ice was .931 in 2010-2011 compared to .929 this past season.

Then there are his top-end numbers. His year to year change in scoring was significant (although he still cannot be said to be a “two-way” defenseman), jumping from 2-10-12 in 2010-2011 to 1-16-17 in 2011-2012. The only odd change, if one wanted to harp on something, was a drop in hits (down 24 from last season). But it remains hard to argue with his efficiency and consistency from year to year and from ten-game segment to segment.

Odd Alzner Fact… When Alzner took on Tampa Bay’s Steve Downie in a fight on January 13th it was his first fight in the NHL. It probably did not have the desired effect. The Caps held a 3-0 lead when the two went at it, but had to hold on for dear life after in a 4-3 Capitals win. It was Alzner’s first fight of any kind since taking on J.D. Watt in a Calgary Hitmen/Red Deer Rebels game on September 22, 2007. Alzner’s Hitmen won that game, 4-1.


Game to Remember… Alzner logged a season high 27:40 of ice time (also a career high in regular season ice time) in a 5-3 win over the Ottawa Senators on December 7th. He led the team in both even-strength ice time (22:27) and shorthanded ice time (5:13). In addition he had three blocked shots and finished a plus-2.

Game to Forget… Alzner was on ice for all five goals against in a 5-3 loss to the San Jose Sharks at Verizon Center on February 13th.

Post-season… Alzner was on ice for four of the 15 goals scored by Boston in the opening round series. In fact, it was the Bruins’ ability to score (or not) with Alzner on the ice that factored in game results. In four Capital wins Alzner was on ice for a total of 1 goal. Three losses, three goals against while on ice. He was not so lucky (or perhaps effective) in the second round. Alzner was on ice for at least one goal in six of the seven games, seven of 15 total goals scored by the Rangers. He was on ice for both Ranger power play goals in Game 5 that led to the Rangers tying the game late, then winning in overtime. It was the pivotal point of the series, the difference between the Caps winning Game 5 and taking a 3-2 lead in games back to Verizon Center, and having two elimination games to have to win to advance.

Overall he was on ice for 11 of the 30 goals scored against the Caps in the post-season (36.7 percent), compared to 10 of 24 goals in the 2011 post season (41.7 percent). That might be considered improvement, but the fact that the Caps as a team finished the post-season having allowed 20 percent fewer goals per game than last year, it might not be as much an improvement as it seems at first look.

In the end, as we pointed out last year at this time Alzner has played the most regular season games of his draft class defenseman cohort (currently 215 to 187 for Carl Gunnarsson of Toronto). He has the second highest plus-minus (plus-23 to Ryan McDonagh’s plus-41). For his reputed lack of offensive firepower he has the fifth-highest point total of defensemen in his draft class (20 defensemen having dressed for at least one NHL game). That 215-game total is also impressive in that it reflects one game missed to injury in two full seasons and parts of two others (a hand injury that caused him to sit out the December 30, 2008 game against Buffalo). He is not a big hitter (tied for 107th of 297 defensemen dressing in the regular season), but he is effective in preventing goals, which is the object of the exercise after all. His (and the team's) stumble in Game 5 of the Ranger series notwithstanding, his improvement is less meteoric than “the cumulative effect of his attention to detail.”

Grade: B+

Home is Where the Heart Is

What a day, eh?

“Breakdown Day” was as much “Breakup Day.” On a day when the players take their exit interviews and meet the media one last time before going their separate ways for the summer, the news was unusual out of Kettler Capitals Iceplex.

The top story, if not entirely unexpected (except perhaps for the timing), was the announcement by Head Coach Dale Hunter that he would be relinquishing his position with the Capitals and returning to “the family business,” the London Knights hockey team in the Ontario Hockey League.

In the days to come there will be a lot of commentary about the decision, and folks being what they are, will try to find some subtext or hidden meaning in Hunter’s leaving…

• Was this a product of conflict with Alex Ovechkin over the Captain’s diminished ice time?
• Was it recognition that despite the team buying into “Hunter Hockey” for the late season push and the playoffs, that this style of hockey is incompatible over an 82-game regular season given the Capitals’ skill set?
• Was it a product of his not being really wanted back by the team (itself the product of Hunter’s record being only 30-23-7 in the regular season and 7-7 in the playoffs, to which might be added General Manager George McPhee’s not asking Hunter to stay on)?
• Was this always the plan, that Hunter was only an “interim” coach?

And there was the first wave of commentary, non-plussed or complimentary…

“[His leaving} seems out of character…That’s not what Dale Hunter does. Is it?”

“He convinced this team to play with a level of selfless sacrifice and defensive commitment it hadn't exhibited before under Bruce Boudreau. This coaching staff offered a psychological blueprint for a team that has lost its wits during postseason adversity in the past.”

But while Hunter, in his exit press conference, sounded proud of the Alexes for trying to do the right thing (he lit up when talking about Alexander Semin sliding to block shots with “the right timing”), he sounded like a man liberated from something he liked to pursue something he loved. Just look at that picture at the top. That does not look like a man with an ulterior motive for leaving the club.

Perhaps the most telling comment today comes from a Hunter – brother Dave – who said, ““He really likes coaching kids.” Dave also remarked that ““Dale always said he’d do it until the rest of the year and then he’d see. [He and George McPhee are] buddies. He said ‘if they don’t like me, they can get rid of me, too.”’ That impresses us as the mind of a man who might like his job – even if it is coaching in the NHL -- but does not derive his identity from it.

And maybe that’s what it comes down to. He met the challenge of coaching in the NHL and took a team deeper into the playoffs than almost anyone thought possible when the playoffs began. He taught the players a hard lesson in the importance of will as much as skill as an ingredient to success. But Hunter also has his farm, his family (“My dad’s still 76 and he still scouts for us”), the “family business,” and he gets to coach kids on their way up. That is who he is.

Sigmund Freud, the founder of the discipline of psychoanalysis, is said to have uttered, “sometimes a cigar is just a cigar,” an admonition that sometimes there just isn’t any deeper meaning than what you see. We take Dale Hunter at his word. Sometimes a resignation is just a resignation.

Good luck, Dale.

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 7: Rangers 2 - Capitals 1

Midnight.

For the 37th consecutive season, midnight comes early for the Washington Capitals. On Saturday night the Caps lost to the New York Rangers, 2-1, and thus lost their Eastern Conference semifinal series, four games to three.

As was the case in the previous six games of this series – the previous 13 for the Caps in the playoffs, for that matter – it would be a low-scoring, closely fought affair. This game started almost as a mirror image of Game 6. In that one, Alex Ovechkin got the Caps started only 1:28 into the game with a power play goal to give the Caps a lead they would not relinquish in a 2-1 win. In Game 7, it was Brad Richards who got the Rangers off on the right foot only 1:32 into the game. It was a case of living by the blocked shot, as the Caps did so much in this series, and dying by it. In this case it was Nicklas Backstrom who tried to get into Richards’ shooting lane as Richards was receiving a pass from Carl Hagelin for a one timer from the top of the left wing circle. Unfortunately, Backstrom was not quite on Richards’ line, and the Ranger snapped the puck past both Backstrom and goalie Braden Holtby for the early lead.

It looked as though that goal might stand up as the only one of the game. Neither team looked especially adept on offense over the next 48 minutes, and it only made the job of Holtby and Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist easier. Then the Caps got caught. It started when Michael Del Zotto tumbled Alex Ovechkin to the ice at the Rangers’ blue line. The loose puck lying behind Ovechkin was picked up by the Rangers as defenseman John Carlson was going to the bench for the Caps in favor of Mike Green. Green got back in good order, and the Rangers were left with Marian Gaborik skating into the zone alone against three Caps. Gaborik got his shot off, but it was blocked by Brooks Laich. This time, though, the Caps could not clear the blocked shot, and the puck ended up on the stick of Del Zotto. With neither Ovechkin nor Alexander Semin getting back into the play, Del Zotto was free to wind up and snap the puck past Holtby for what looked to be an insurmountable 2-0 Ranger lead 10:05 into the third period.

The Caps responded just 38 seconds later. Troy Brouwer rushed the puck through the neutral zone, and as he crossed the Ranger line slid the puck off to his left and the stick of Jason Chimera. From the left wing wall Chimera sent the puck across to Brooks Laich, who did a nice job just corralling the puck as he was backing up along the right wing side. Laich fed the puck to Roman Hamrlik, who stepped up and wristed the puck through a clot of bodies in front of Lundqvist and into the back of the net.

But that is as close as the Caps would get. The Caps would manage only two shots in the last 9:55, neither of which could have been considered coming off a scoring chance. The Caps’ last gasp was a shot by John Carlson that would be – what else – blocked by the Rangers, and the horn sounded shortly thereafter, the signal that for the 37th straight year, midnight was striking for the Caps and their playoff chances.

Other stuff…

-- We said that this game would boil down to which of two elite players would impose his will on the game – Alex Ovechkin and Henrik Lundqvist. In this game Lundqvist was sharp, especially in the second period when the Caps cobbled together something approximating an offense. But Ovechkin would finish the game with only two shots on goal, none of them in the last 33:57.

-- Speaking of shots – or more precisely, the lack of them – the Core Four were all but absent in that statistic in the last half of the game. Ovechkin recorded his second and last shot of the game at the 6:03 mark of the second period. Nicklas Backstrom did not record a shot on goal after the 13:26 mark of the first period. Mike Green was held without a shot on goal over the last 29:26 of the game. And while Alexander Semin did get credit for a shot on goal with 32 seconds left in the game, it was recorded officially as being from 64 feet, not exactly a prime scoring opportunity. It was his first shot on goal since the 9:57 mark of the second period. As a group, one inconsequential shot on goal in the last 29:26 of the game.

-- Seven times in seven games, the team scoring first in this series won the game.

-- The question we had as this series wore on was whether the Rangers and especially their top four defensemen would have enough left in the tank after getting so many minutes in the first six games. Well, the Caps were held to only four shots in the third period. They did just fine.

-- The Caps had only one power play in this game, but it hardly seemed to matter. The Rangers out-shot them on that power play, 1-0, and the Caps looked as if they were running drills in the first day of training camp. It was painful to watch.

-- The top line of Brad Richards, Marian Gaborik, and Carl Hagelin for the Rangers was a combined 1-3-4, plus-6. The flip side of the coin in looking at the absence of the Caps’ Core Four.

-- Richards, in particular, stepped up. A goal, four shots, a plus-2, a takeaway, and even his 14-for-24 on faceoffs was deceptive. He was 8-for-11 in the offensive zone and 5-for-7 in the defensive zone.

-- Lost in all this is the performance of Braden Holtby. Here is a guy who just a couple of days ago became a new father. Then he has to step onto the ice in a foe’s rink and maintain his focus in the biggest hockey game of his life. He ended up stopping 29 of 31 shots. He finished the playoffs with these achievements…

• Only rookie goalie to appear in more than one game in these playoffs. He appeared in 14 games; St. Louis’ Jake Allen played in one game for a grand total of 1:07 and did not face a shot.
• His 1.95 goals against average was the best for a rookie goaltender playing in more than one post season game since Ilya Bryzgalov posted a 1.46 GAA in 11 games in the 2006 post-season for Anaheim.
• His .935 save percentage was the best for a rookie netminder since Bryzgalov recorded a .944 in that 2006 post season.
• Since the lockout, the only rookie goalies with more wins than the seven recorded by Holtby were Cam Ward (15) and Ryan Miller (11), both in 2006.

-- There are a number of Caps who might have skated their last for the team in this game. Of particular note, Mike Knuble had only one shift in the third period, that one ending at the 2:46 mark). Personally, there isn’t another Cap we were rooting harder for to win it all this year than Knuble.

-- Moment of irony. Joel Ward, who scored the game-winning, series-clinching goal against Boston in the first round, did not record a shot on goal in this game.

In the end, after all the ups and downs, the good and the bad, we are right where we are every year with the Caps. For the 35th time in 37 years and for the 13th consecutive year, the Caps do not advance out of the second round. Seven years into the Alex Ovechkin Era, the Caps have won three playoff series, lost five. They are 24-27 in all games played and 2-4 in Games 7.

Not every year is the same, though, and in this team one sees a squad with more fight and more push than many of their predecessors. In many respects they resembled the teams of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s that had more grit that skill. And truth be told, once one gets past the Core Four, this is not an especially skilled team. But they fought hard with what they had available to them. This game was not their best effort, to be sure. It was arguably their worst game in that regard in this series. But that does not diminish too much the respect one should have for this team’s ability to take everything in stride and put forth a consistent level of effort from game to game.

We and others will have a lot to say about this season in the weeks to come, but for now, one can derive a certain level of satisfaction that this team got more out of what they had than perhaps any team since the 2008 team that lost to Philadelphia in the first round. In that respect they redeemed, in part, their season. Just as the early part of the season was on the players – the tuning out of Bruce Boudreau that resulted in his firing, the lackadaisical play that saw them sleepwalk through the much of the winter – so was the effort in these playoffs.

But second round exits are not the expected level of achievement for this team. In that respect, the Core Four came up short, and one has to wonder if this team is built to win a title and if the people doing the building are up to that challenge. That, however, is a discussion for another day. Tonight we lick our wounds as fans and congratulate the New York Rangers. They were the better team, if only by that “one percent” that Mike Knuble suggested after the game. They did it, as Frank Sinatra might say, “their way,” playing hard in three zones for 60 minutes, having their big players step up, and getting a superb goaltending performance from Henrik Lundqvist. They will move on to take on the New Jersey Devils.

We will start our summer, once more too early.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Game 7/Capitals at Rangers, May 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Game 7. It is not like this is something new for the Washington Capitals. Their Game 7 against the New York Rangers on Saturday will mark the sixth time in their last eight playoff series in which the Caps have gone to a seventh game to settle a series. In their previous five Game 7’s, the Caps are 2-3, having won two of the last three Game 7’s they faced.

This is a double elimination game that will shine a bright light on both goaltenders, one a rookie facing only his second Game 7 in his brief career, the other in his seventh season but facing only his third Game 7. This being a game played at Madison Square Garden, the focus will be on the veteran, “The King,” Henrik Lundqvist. And for all his accomplishments in his seven-year career, these kinds of games – a chance for him to close out an opponent – have not gone especially well.

Lundqvist has played eight games in which he and his Rangers could close out an opponent. In them, he is 4-4, 2.88, .888. All four of those losses are to the Capitals, against whom he is 0-4, 3.95, .840, and was pulled twice (both times in the 2009 playoffs). But what is it about this series that the Caps have been able to exploit in Lundqvist’s game?

Not much.

Through six games and 410:01 of hockey, Lundqvist has a 1.76 goals-against average and a save percentage of .923. The thing is, though, when he has been good, he has been really good (three games with a save percentage over .910, twice over .940). When he hasn’t been good, well… he hasn’t been good (a save percentage below .890 in three games). It is that not so good part that should concern the Rangers, since in none of the seven games against Ottawa in the first round did Lundqvist have a save percentage below .900, and only twice below .925. There seems to be something about the Capitals that disagrees with Lundqvist.

Is there something in particular about the Caps that makes Lundqvist seem ordinary for stretches? Well, if you look at the manner in which they scored their 12 goals in this series…

Clearly, it is not likely that the Caps are going to beat him low. The three goals scored at ice level were a tap-in by Jason Chimera off a loose puck that ricocheted off the skate of Nicklas Backstrom, a Chimera goal off a scramble after Lundqvist tried to play the puck from behind his own net, and a five-hole drive on a power play by Mike Green. That last one Lundqvist might have wanted back, but the point is that the Caps have not – and likely will not – beat Lundqvist cleanly down low. He covers the bottom of the net too well for that.

But up top, that’s a different story. Alex Ovechkin has scored all three of his goals in this series over Lundqvist’s glove hand – once from the top of the offensive zone through a screen on a power play, once from almost the same spot on a shot that Lundqvist got a glove on, but not enough to keep it from flopping over the goal line, and once on a one-timer from the high slot on a power play when he caught Lundqvist drifting across the crease.

John Carlson added one over that glove hand when he rifled a one-timer through a group of players in front of Lundqvist on a power play, making it four of 12 goals in that corner of the net. Carlson made good over the other shoulder when he wristed a shot across his body and over Lundqvist’s blocker. Nicklas Backstrom found that same soft spot from almost an identical spot on the ice, firing a shot on the long side over that blocker.

In beating Lundqvist, low is no way to go. High is what the Caps have to try.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider scored the game-winning goal in Game 1 of this series. He played more than 26 minutes in the triple-overtime game in Game 3. But since then he has played a total of 20:37 in three games. He does not have a point since that Game 1 goal. His is an example of secondary scoring the Rangers have not had a lot of in this series, but it is also a reflection of his apparently being in coach John Tortorella’s dog house. Why? Well, he was on the ice for three of the Caps’ five total goals in the first three games of the series. Then, in Game 4, it was his ill-advised pass through the middle that ended up on Alex Ovechkin’s stick and then in the back of the Ranger net for the first goal in a 3-2 Caps win. Since then, he has been more or less stapled to the Ranger bench.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Alexander Semin has one point in this series (an assist in Game 3). He does not have a goal since Game 5 against Boston in the opening round. The eight games without a goal matches his season high drought (November 25 – December 15). He has only seven goals in his last 36 playoff games and has only one in 18 second round playoff games in his career. If there is a Cap who needs to be heard from in this game, Alexander Semin is that Capital.

Keys

Keys? We are sort of past that. Basically, this game is going to come down to which of two elite players is going to impose his will on the game. Either Henrik Lundqvist is going to frustrate the Caps, or Alex Ovechkin is going to find holes in Lundqvist’s armor. In each of the Caps’ wins Ovechkin has a goal. In each of the Ranger wins Lundqvist has kept Ovechkin from lighting the lamp. It really does not get any simpler than that. As you might expect, we think Ovechkin is going to light the way to the conference final.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

What Goes Through a Mom's Mind?

We can only imagine what has been going through Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby's mom as she watches her son tending goal in this playoff season (pictures from washingtonpost.com...the captions are our own imaginings)...

One Hockey Player's Fight

At this time of year we read and hear about the fight that hockey players have in them. Blocking shots, enduring overtimes that wear on the body and spirit, taking and delivering hits. The will of the hockey player makes his class of athlete among the most deserving of respect by fans and athletic peers alike.

But even the fight to succeed and advance in the Stanley Cup tournament at this time of year pales when compared to a fight another hockey player is engaged in. You see, Gary Lukasiewicz is in a bigger fight – the fight for his life.

Gary Lukasiewicz is an 18-year old senior at Riverdale High School in Taylor, PA, not too far from where we grew up. He is a goalie on his high school’s hockey team and is anticipating enrolling at Villanova University this fall. But for the moment, he confronts a life threatening illness for the second time.

Before his junior year at Riverside, he was diagnosed with sarcoma, a rare form of cancer. Gary beat it back once, but the cancer returned once more. Looking for a way to show support for their friend and classmate, some members of the Riverside community decided to show their support through social media.

As Gary was fighting in a hospice to beat back his illness once more – just one week before his prom and just a month before graduation -- #keepfightinggary was becoming a hotbed of Twitter activity since its original posting earlier this week. His classmates are engaged in what certainly looks like a non-stop effort to make his battle known as a trending topic on Twitter.

Meanwhile, news came – via Twitter, of course – that Gary was going home today where his care will continue. Hopefully, to beat this once, twice, and for all.

#keepfightinggary

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 6: Capitals 2 - Rangers 1

Here we go again.

The Washington Capitals will play a seventh game for the second time in these playoffs after defeating the New York Rangers, 2-1, in Game 6 of their second round series at Verizon Center. The Caps used a tried and true formula to secure the win – score first, let Braden Holtby see pucks, and hold on for dear life at the end.

The scoring first part came as a product of Jason Chimera’s speed. It was his breaking down the left side on Anton Stralman that drew a penalty when Stralman swept the skates out from under Chimera with his stick as he tried to poke the puck away. The Caps converted the chance with good puck movement at the top of the offensive zone – Dennis Wideman at the left wing wall to Mike Green, and back to Wideman. Off the reset Wideman sent it out to Green again as Ryan Callahan tried to slide and block the puck. Callahan’s slide took him out of the play, and it would figure in the result. Green moved the puck over to Nicklas Backstrom on the right side, at which time Alex Ovechkin circled into the void left when Callahan went after Wideman. Backstrom found Ovechkin, and the Captain wired a one timer past goalie Henrik Lundqivst’s glove for the game’s first goal just 88 seconds into the game.

It held up for almost 30 minutes of game time, until the 11th minute of the second period. Alexander Semin got things started by being the pony ride for Ranger defenseman Marc Staal. Carrying the puck along the end wall, Semin was ridden then knocked to the ice by Staal, but he popped back up with Staal still providing a nuisance.  Semin shed Staal by darting across the left wing faceoff circle. He tried to get a shot off, but managed only to push the puck across to the right wing wall where John Carlson was waiting. Carlson got a shot off that ricocheted off the toe of Nicklas Backstrom’s skate and across the top of the crease. Henrik Lundqvist was down to defend the Carlson shot, and when the puck slid across in front of him he was in no position to play the puck away. It made for easy pickings for Jason Chimera, who charged to the net as the puck was coming across, and he had only to keep his stick on the ice and redirect the puck behind Lundqvist for a 2-0- Caps lead.

The shutout almost held up for Caps goalie Braden Holtby, but in the last minute the Rangers threw a scare into the Caps when Marian Gaborik wristed a shot from the right point that caught John Carlson in the back on the way through. The shot that would have gone wide ended up redirected past Holtby to get the Rangers within a goal, conjuring unpleasant thoughts of what happened at the end of Game 5. But the Caps held the Rangers without a shot in the last 50.5 seconds, and they lived to play another Game 7 this Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

Other stuff…

-- Who was on the ice for those last 50.5 seconds for the Caps as they nursed that one-goal lead? Joel Ward.

-- Holtby came within 50.5 seconds of his first shutout of the post-season. He is the only goalie left in the tournament that has yet to record one.

-- Alex Ovechkin almost created his own hat trick – the power play goal, the goal off the crossbar and in while falling to the ice, and the sweep-shot from his backside for a goal. The last two did not go in, so we wait on this new hockey milestone.

-- Even without the new-found hat trick, Ovechkin was a dervish on the ice – a goal, six shot attempts (three on goal), five hits, and three blocked shots. But what was most encouraging didn’t show up on the score sheet. Ovechkin has not had the reputation of being a player who plays below the dots in his own end, but he was doing just that. Not often, perhaps, but enough to lead by example.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had the kind of night fans have been looking for ion this series. He had a pair of assists (his first multi-point game since Game 6 of the Boston series), two hits (not including his flattening a Ranger in the offensive zone in a manner reminiscent of his plopping Artem Anisimov to the ice in Game 4), and ten wins in 15 faceoffs taken.

-- It was the sixth straight game in which the Caps were even or better on special teams and won the game. They had one power play in three attempts; the Rangers were 0-for-5.

-- The 5-for-5 on the penalty kill included a kill of both ends of a four-minute penalty taken by Jeff Halpern for high-sticking John Mitchell. It was huge, as the penalty came just 1:06 after the Caps took a 2-0 lead. The Rangers managed only three shots on goal in the four-minute power play, and the Caps got off three shot attempts of their own shorthanded, one of them on goal.

-- And sure enough, almost as soon as the Caps killed off the double-minor penalty to Halpern, they got a break in what looked a bit like a make-up call when Jason Chimera (who seemed to be in the middle of everything last night) drew a silly roughing penalty at the players’ benches by Brandon Prust, who should have just skated by.

-- No Cap taking more than one faceoff was on the wrong side of 50 percent for the game. More important, they were 19-for-30 in the defensive end (63.3 percent).

-- And then there were those blocked shots. The Caps out blocked the Rangers, 24-6. But the numbers to take away were the Caps blocking 35.3 percent of the Rangers’ attempts and the Rangers blocking 14.3 percent of the Caps’ attempts.

-- The one thing the Caps will want to tighten up – even allowing for scoring differences between rinks – is giveaways. They had 18 (to nine for the Rangers), 13 of them by defensemen and Braden Holtby.

-- The Caps had more shorthanded shots on goal (three) than power play shots (two, one of them for a goal).

-- Alex Ovechkin had more power play ice time in the second period (2:29) than even-strength ice time (2:27). Five of the Capital forwards had more even-strength ice time for the game than Ovechkin (12:29).

-- The Caps are now 4-0 in games following an overtime loss. The flip side of that is that the Caps are 5-2 in games settled in regulation in the playoffs so far (they are 2-4 in overtime games).

In the end, they gave themselves a chance. And in the long slog that is the Stanley Cup playoffs, that is as much as you can ask for. It will be the sixth Game 7 the Caps have played in their last eight playoff series. They have a chance to even their record at 3-3 in those games and, more important, advance to the conference final for only the third time in franchise history. And for a team that is 4-3 on the road in these playoffs, it is not that bad a place to be.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Game 6/Rangers at Capitals, May 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Game 6. Elimination Game. In every Game 6 a team is facing the end of the road to a championship. For the Caps, it will be the 12th time in franchise history in which they have entered Game 6 facing elimination. They have a record of 5-6 in those games so far. But it is the recent history that interests us today and that might be relevant to this game.

The Caps have played in three Games 6 on the short end of a 3-2 edge in games won since the lockout. This is relevant in that five of the players who played in each of those games – arguably the most important skaters on this team – will be dressing on Wednesday night: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich, Alexander Semin, Mike Green. In each instance – 2008 and twice in 2009 – they won those games. Is there anything in them that might be instructive here? Let’s take a look at them…

April 21, 2008. Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

Talk about your bad news coming early. Mike Richards scored 3:49 into the game on a power play, and Danny Briere did the same 1:18 into the second period to put the Flyers up, 2-0, and the Caps in a deep hole. But before that second period was out, Nicklas Backstrom scored (Semin and Laich with the assists), and Semin tied the game with 1:57 left in the period. That left the third period to Alex Ovechkin. It took Ovechkin only 2:46 to give the Capitals their first lead of the game, and Ovechkin cemented the win with a goal 10:41 into the period.

Things to ponder…

-- After Ovechkin’s score the Flyers managed only five shots on goal in the last 10:41, only two in the last five minutes and none in the last 2:20, despite having their goalie pulled in the last 1:10.

-- The Fab Five finished a combined 4-3-7, plus-7. They accounted for 23 of the 40 shots on goal for the Caps. They had only three giveaways.

-- The Caps allowed the Flyers goals on their first two power plays but slammed the door after that, shutting out the Flyers on three power plays, including 49 seconds of a 5-on-3 Flyer power play and 35 seconds of a 4-on-3 power play.

-- The Caps were 1-for-5 on the power play.

*****

April 26, 2009. Capitals 5 – Rangers 3

The Caps did things the “right” way in this one, getting out to a lead 7:09 in on a Milan Jurcina goal. The trouble was, they gave it back barely a minute later on a Scott Gomez power play goal. But then, the Caps broke down the Rangers and, in particular, goalie Henrick Lundqvist. Mike Green started the process with a goal at 13:58 on a power play. Tom Poti followed it up with a goal just over three minutes later, and the Caps had a 3-1 lead at the first intermission. Viktor Kozlov and Alex Ovechkin (power play) added goals in the second, making it four goals on 13 shots against Lundqvist. He was pulled in favor of Steve Valiquette, but the damage was done. The Rangers got a couple of cosmetic goals in the third period (one with six seconds left…sound familiar?) for the final margin.

Things to ponder…

-- Sometimes, scoring comes from, if not odd places, unexpected ones. Tom Poti had a four-point game for the Caps (1-3-4). David Steckel had a pair of assists. Shaone Morrison was a plus-3.

-- Each of the Big Five recorded at least one point: Ovechkin (1-0-1), Backstrom (0-1-1), Laich (0-1-1), Semin (0-1-1) and Green (1-0-1).

-- The Caps were 2-for-2 on the power play.

*****

May 11, 2009. Capitals 5 – Penguins 4 (OT)

This game was much like the series itself between the Caps and Penguins, back and forth. Bill Guerin started the scoring with a goal 5:55 into the first period for the only score of the first period. To that point, the team scoring first in the series lost four of the first five games, so scoring first was not an especially big deal for the Penguins. It took a while, though, for the Caps to knot things up. Viktor Kozlov did the trick 6:27 into the second period. That was followed up with a Tomas Fleischmann goal at 14:42 to give the Caps a 2-1 lead. Pittsburgh erased that lead late in the second period with a power play goal from perhaps the unlikeliest of sources. Mark Eaton scored what would be his first NHL career playoff power play goal (it would be his last) with 34 seconds left in the period to even things at 2-2.

The Penguins regained the lead on a power play goal by Kris Letang 4:40 into the third period, but the Caps knotted things back up less than a minute later on a goal by Brooks Laich with the Caps on a power play of their own. Viktor Kozlov put the Caps in the catbird seat with a goal just 29 seconds after Laich’s score, but Sidney Crosby tied things up one last time with just 4:18 left in regulation. That left things to overtime, and it was the little things and a bit of grit that made the difference for the Capitals in the end...

-- David Steckel won a faceoff in the Penguin end to Brooks Laich.
-- Despite being tripped by Ruslan Fedotenko (small world), Laich nudged the puck down to Matt Bradley on the half-wall.
-- Bradley chipped it off the wall over Fedotenko’s stick to Laich at the point.
-- Laich flipped a harmless looking shot toward the Penguin net.
-- It would have been a harmless shot, but Steckel, having won the faceoff, went to the net. He deflected Laich’s shot past Marc-Andre Fleury, atoning for his miss of an open net in overtime in Game 5 and giving the Caps their third straight Game 6 win when facing elimination.

Things to ponder…

-- The lead changed hands four times in this game.

-- The Big Five was heard from. They were a combined 1-7-8 (only Mike Green did not get a point, but he had seven shot attempts and was credited with four hits).

-- Secondary scoring was in force – Viktor Kozlov with a pair of goals, assists from Matt Bradley (on the game-winner) and Shaone Morrisonn.

-- The Caps were 1-for-4 on the power play.

What do we see in these elimination games that might be important on Wednesday night?

1. Big players play big. The Big Five, almost without exception, put crooked numbers on the score sheet in these Games 6. These are the games for which they earn the big bucks. They have to be heard from.

2. Someone you don’t expect can be a hero, if only for one night. A Tom Poti with a four-point night, a David Steckel with a game-winning deflection. The Big Five have to be heard from, but anyone can be a hero.  If there is justice, given his effort in this series, watch for Matt Hendricks to play an important role.

3. You have to make the other guy pay on the power play. Power play goals played important roles in these games, either to provide insurance (in the wins over the Flyers and Rangers) or to erase a lead (tying the game at 3-3 against the Penguins). The Caps can win if they take an o-fer, but getting a goal will be large in pushing them to a Game 7.

4. Treat no lead as safe…yours or the other guy’s.

5. Do the little things well and with attention to detail. Good things won’t happen all the time, but they might happen often enough, even if it is just once.

It is a formula that the Caps have, in fact, used this playoff season. It will serve them well at least one more time.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 1

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 5: Rangers 3 - Capitals 2 (OT)

The Hockey Gods hate the Washington Capitals.

What else is one left to conclude after last night’s 3-2 overtime loss to the New York Rangers in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series? It wasn’t enough that the Caps gave up a lead in the last 6.6 seconds of regulation, they would do it having to kill a penalty taken in the last minute. And not only would it be a penalty, but a penalty on the hero of the opening round – Joel Ward – who took a high-sticking penalty on Carl Hagelin, who was in the box in Game 4 when the Caps scored their own game-winning power play goal in Game 4. Not only was it a penalty, it was a double-minor that would give the Rangers two bites at the apple, as it were. They would make good, scoring the tying goal with 6.6 seconds left, and then the winner just 1:35 into overtime. And in typical fashion, harkening back to overtimes past, the goalie – this time Braden Holtby (although it could have been Bob Mason or Olaf Kolzig) “didn’t see a thing” as the puck fired by Marc Staal hit a Cap on the way through, and it went by to seal the win for the Rangers.

How cruel does it get?

Other stuff…

-- The Caps have become a pretty good defensive team, but they are really pushing the concept in this respect. The Rangers had 78 shot attempts to the Caps’ 35. The Madison Square Garden facilities staff barely had to resurface the ice in the Ranger end, especially after the first period when the Rangers held a 17-4 edge in shots.

-- Matt Hendricks was 9-for-9 on faceoffs in Game 4. He was 5-for-8 in this game, 4-for-6 in the defensive zone. He lost the draw to John Mitchell that set the last moments of the game in action. It was the only draw Mitchell took against Hendricks in the game.

-- This was the first game in which a team taking a lead was overtaken by the opponent, and it happened twice, thus preserving the fact that the team scoring first wins.

-- How many times will you see Alex Ovechkin go an entire playoff game without a shot on goal? This would be the second time, the first coming in Game 1 of the opening round series against Montreal in 2010.

-- Not an especially productive night for the Core Four – one assist (Ovechkin), 3-for-10 on draws (Backstrom), a penalty (Green), and a lot of shots directed at the net with – again – nothing to show for it (Semin, six attempts, three on goal).

-- The penalty killers picked the wrong time to go scrambly, but that’s what happened in tight in those last furious seconds of regulation. Two Caps and goalie Braden Holtby were pinned to one post as the puck squirted out the other side, right where Brad Richards was standing all alone. You don’t need to pay a guy a gozillion bucks to bury it from there.

In the end, the obvious narrative take away from this game is that the Caps lose in just about the cruelest manner imaginable, and it is the last gasp for their season. Who could come back from this? But they came back from a triple-overtime loss to beat the Rangers on Verizon Center ice once. They can do it again. They have to…

…it’s a must-win game now.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Game 5/Capitals At Rangers, May 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head to New York to take on the Rangers in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series with the teams tied 2-2 in games. And the series is about as even as the games won suggests. The Rangers hold a 9-8 edge in goals; the Caps a 115-111 edge in shots. Both teams have a pair of power play goals, the Caps getting theirs in a total of 12 chances, the Rangers getting theirs in 13 chances.

This has been an odd series through four games. Consider…

-- As everyone knows, the team that scored first in games has won each game thus far. But more than that, once a team gets that first goal, they have not surrendered the lead. Oh, the other team has come back to tie the game – Washington in Game 1, the Rangers in Game 2 after falling behind by two goals, the Caps in Game 3 before losing in triple overtime, and the Rangers twice in Game 4 after falling behind by a goal. But neither team has overtaken the other at any point in any game after surrendering that first goal.

-- It has been a grind-it-out series so far, but if you look at the late-game or game-winning goals, the stars have stepped up. Alex Ovechkin, Marian Gaborik, and Mike Green have game-winners, and Brad Richards scored an insurance goal in Game 1 for the only two-goal winning margin in the series.

-- In 14 full periods of hockey (including two full 20-minute overtimes) the Caps have recorded more than ten shots in a period only three times, the Rangers only once.

-- Save percentages by period are interesting in this series, and not in a way Caps fans might like. Braden Holtby has been lights out in the first period of games so far – 26 saves on 27 shots for a .963 save percentage. But he is 30-for-34 in the second period (.882) and 25-for-28 in the third period of games (.893).

-- At the other end, Henrik Lundqvist has saved 42 of 45 shots in the first period of games so far (including all three instances of the Caps getting more than ten shots in a period) for a .933 save percentage. He is 24-for-27 in the second period (.889) and 24-for-26 in the third (.923).

-- Since his nice effort in Game 1 (1-1-2, plus-1), Chris Kreider is 0-0-0 and minus-4 in the last three games.

-- Jeff Schultz has been on the ice for three of the six goals scored by the Rangers in the three games Schultz has played. That wouldn’t be so bad but for two things. First, he has played the fewest total minutes of any Caps defenseman in those three games. Second, none of those three goals came in the triple-overtime game when Schultz played more than 31 minutes. That means that in the other two games he was on ice for three goals in less than 32 minutes of ice time.

-- Ryan Callahan has 25 hits through four games to lead the Rangers, Matt Hendricks has 21 for the Caps. The difference? Callahan has his in 33:06 minutes of ice time more than Hendricks.

-- The Rangers have three players who have played in each of their 11 playoff games to date and have less than seven minutes of average ice time in them (John Mitchell, Mike Rupp, and Stu Bickel). The Caps have none.


The Peerless’ Players to Ponder:

New York: Ruslan Fedotenko

Once upon a time, Ruslan Fedotenko was a fairly decent “secondary” sort of scorer. He recorded more than 15 goals in seven of his first eight seasons in the league. But in his last three seasons, his goal scoring has dropped off, averaging 10 per season. He does not have a goal in these playoffs. In fact, he does not have one in his last 28 playoff games dating back to Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals in 2009 when he was a member of the Stanley Cup-winning Pittsburgh Penguins. He is still getting good minutes (seventh among Ranger forwards in average ice time), but his role has changed quite a bit, being more of a third line checking forward. Still, he has only 13 shots on goal in 11 playoff games, six of those coming in the four games of this series. One thing to note…he has nine goals this season, all of them in wins. In no Ranger loss has he had a goal.

Washington: Alexander Semin

He was the only one of the Core Four not to record a goal in the 3-2 win on Saturday, but he might have been the most consistently effective forward in pushing play. He has 28 shot attempts in this series, 20 of them coming in the last two games (seven on goal). At the other end, he has been on ice for only one goal against, that coming in Game 1. He is without a goal in his last six games after getting one in three straight during the Boston series. He has been getting his chances. And that the Caps have been able to keep the series even with Semin quiet suggests that if those shots start going in, he could be a difference maker in Madison Square Garden.

Keys:

1. Score first. Yeah, yeah…

2. Fight to get in tight. Here is the shot chart for Game 4 (from the Washington Post):

…that’s a nice cluster in the scoring chance area. There are subtle hints that the ice time distribution for the Rangers over the first four games, especially in the triple-overtime Game 3, is having some effect. The Caps got better looks at the Rangers’ net in Game 4, and if not for some fine saves by Henrik Lundqvist early, it might have been a rough game for the Rangers. Keep up this pressure and perhaps those effects will become more pronounced.

3. It’s not the number, it’s the percentage. Blocked shots, that is. As we noted in the post-game for Game 4, in the first three games of this series the Rangers blocked 30.4% of Caps shot attempts in Game 1, 30.6 in Game 2, 35.7 in Game 3. In Game 4 the Rangers blocked 17.5% of the Caps’ shot attempts. Part of that might be more intelligent use of angles and timing, making adjustments to find shooting lanes. And, it might be another effect of high ice times for important Ranger players.

In the end, the Caps have been here before – 16 days ago, in fact (it seems longer, doesn’t it?). The Caps have had their struggles over the years with Games 5, usually a product of their having built series leads and losing Game 5 on their way to a series loss. But in the first round they ground out a 4-3 win in Boston against the Bruins. And it was the way they did it that should make Caps fans happy. They took leads twice and withstood comebacks in each instance by the Bruins before using a late goal to get the win. It has been a frequent formula this spring, and since the Caps are 2-2 at Madison Square Garden this season, there is enough reason to believe that they can repeat their recent history as well.

Capitals 2 – Rangers 1

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 4: Capitals 3 - Rangers 2

Well, at least we all got out at a decent hour.

The Washington Capitals tied their Eastern Conference semi-final with the New York Rangers, hanging a 3-2 defeat on the visitors on a late power play goal by Mike Green. The series heads to New York for Game 5, and the Caps will do so having recovered smartly from their 2-1 triple-overtime loss to the Rangers on Wednesday.

It was precisely the sort of game the Caps have played ten times before in these playoffs – close checking, low-risk, opportunistic, and calm. Once more the first goal was important. For the 10th time in 11 games for the Caps this spring the team that scored first won the game. This would be a game that turned on the infrequent mistake, and the Rangers committed the first one of consequence. It came in the 13th minute of the first period with a clot of players fighting for a loose puck in the Rangers’ end to goalie Henrik Lundqvist’s left. The puck squirted out to where Ranger Chris Kreider had crept down the wall. As he collected the puck, three Caps were about to surround him, and Kreider tried to make a quick play up the middle with a backhand pass. What he found was Alex Ovechkin without a Ranger around him. Ovechkin wasted no time letting fly with a slap shot that Lundqvist got a glove on, but not enough of it as the puck crawled out of the webbing of his mitt and hopped over the goal line.

In the second minute of the second period, it was the Caps’ turn. With the puck finding Dan Girardi at the right point in the Capitals’ end Girardi backed off and wristed a shot that Alex Oveckin “flamingoed.” Rather than take the puck off his shin pad, Ovechkin raised his right foot, letting the puck go by. Then, the hockey gods saw fit to make the Caps pay for the nonchalance by letting the puck hit between Brooks Laich’s skates in front of goalie Braden Holtby. Laich could get neither stick nor skate on the puck to direct it away. It allowed Artem Anisimov time to collect the puck, turn, and as Holtby tried to cover the bottom of the net by spreading his pads out, sweep the puck past him to tie the game.

Back to the Rangers. This time the mistake was more of a miscalculation. Just past the mid-way point of the second period and with the puck in the corner to Lundqvist’s left, Nicklas Backstrom was getting control of it with Anisimov bearing down on him. Anisimov, being 6’4”, 200 pounds, might have thought Backstrom – a player not known as a big hitter and only 6’1” – could be taken advantage of. Anisimov found out quickly the error of his assumption. As he closed on Backstrom, the Cap forward set his feet an planted a shoulder into Anisimov’s chest, dumping him on his keister to the ice. The puck found its way to Jason Chimera on the other side of the ice, giving Backstrom an opportunity to step out and find a soft spot in the Ranger defense. Chimera threaded a pass through the slot to Backstrom who snapped a shot past Lundqvist’s blocker, and the Caps had the lead once more.

Then the Caps returned the favor not five minutes later. The puck was flipped out of the Ranger end, and Caps defenseman Dennis Wideman tried to glove it down. He managed only to tip the puck (which would negate an icing call that had already been signaled by the linesman in the Caps end). Wideman turned and slowed down, apparently thinking his partner Jeff Schultz was going to take up the pursuit of the puck. But Schultz was skating on a path that took him to the wrong side of the net. Neither was in a position to keep Anisimov from getting to the puck first. With Wideman and Schultz both below the icing line trying to defend Anisimov, Marian Gaborik was setting up in front of Holtby. When he took the pass from Anisimov, he had only to bunt the puck through Holtby’s pads to tie the game one more and, as it would turn out, one last time. You know this is going to show up on Justin Bourne’s “Systems Analyst” on his “Backhand Shelf” blog.

Mike Green broke the tie late in the third period after Carl Hagelin took a slashing penalty for whacking John Carlson’s stick out of his hands. The play started when Alexander Semin punched the puck up the left wing wall and past a pair of Rangers to Wideman, who then backhanded the puck over to Green at the left point. Green had a lot of ice in front of him, a result of that scrum over on the other wall. As it turned out, only Ryan McDonagh was on Green’s side of the ice, and he was caught in a no-man’s land between jumping out to Green or hanging back to cut off any Capital going to the net. Green took advantage, stepping up and raising his stick for a shot. The move seemed to freeze McDonagh, and it was enough for Green to have a shooting opening that he used to fire a low shot that ducked under Lundqvist’s right pad and into the back of the net for the game-winner.

Other stuff…

-- With all those minutes played by the likes of Ryan McDonagh (53:17) and Marc Staal (49:34) for the Rangers in the triple-overtime game on Wednesday, one might wonder if there would be any hangover. Well, here is something that one might think about. In the first three games of this series the Rangers blocked 30.4% of Caps shot attempts in Game 1, 30.6 in Game 2, 35.7 in Game 3. McDonagh had eight blocked shots in the Game 3 triple-overtime affair, and Staal had another three. In Game 4 the Rangers blocked 17.5% of the Caps’ shot attempts, and McDonagh and Staal had one apiece.

-- The record will say that Henrik Lundqvist allowed three goals on 26 shots. However, Lundqvist had the more difficult chances, particularly one on Backstrom’s stick five minutes into the third period when he was in alone on Lundqvist and tried to go five-hole. Lundqvist got his pad on the shot to deny Backstrom a second goal.

-- Artem Anisimov had a lot of ones – one goal, one assist, plus-1, one shot on goal, one hit, and one faceoff win. Oh, and one unflattering dump in the corner courtesy of Backstrom.

-- The disallowed goal in the fourth minute of the third period appeared to us to be a case not of Mike Knuble having plopped into Lundqvist’s lap (he was helped into that position by Stu Bickel as Knuble was heading to the net). With Lundqvist, Knuble, and Bickel in the crease, the puck appeared never to cross the goal line until nudged in by a skate long after the referee’s whistle stopping play.

-- This is how the Caps play hockey these days. After Mike Green scored with 5:48 left in the third period, the Caps not only did not have another shot on goal, they did not have another shot attempt. At the other end, the Rangers managed eight shot attempts in the last 5:48, two of them on goal and six of them blocked. Those six blocks came from six different players (Roman Hamrlik, Mike Green, Matt Hendricks, Marcus Johansson, Troy Brouwer, and Brooks Laich).

-- Obligatory Alex Ovechkin time-on-ice comment…. Ovechkin did not take the ice at all after Green’s game-winning goal.

-- No, it isn’t a suspendable offense. Alex Ovechkin planted Dan Girardi with a hit in the second period that had the talking heads (well, talking head – Mike Milbury – but it’s a really big head) calling the hit “unacceptable” and worthy of a fine. In fact, Ovechkin attempted to play the puck with his left foot as he was cutting across the high slot. He managed only to nudge the puck in another direction, and after having done that found Girardi in his path. At hockey speed, it was a bang-bang moment.

-- Speaking of Girardi, he was where it was happening in this game. He was on the ice for all five goals.

-- The Rangers won the territorial was in this respect. There were 22 faceoffs in the Caps’ end, only ten in the Rangers’ end. No matter where they were, though, Matt Hendricks was winning them. He was 9-for-9 on draws.

-- The agony and the ecstasy. Jeff Schultz was on the ice for both Ranger goals. He also had nine – that’s right, nine – blocked shots. The Rangers as a team had only seven.

-- The Core Four had a nice game… 3-0-3, plus-1, 14 shots on goal.

-- And of the Core Four, even though the other three each scored goals, Alexander Semin might have been the most consistent force for good in this game. The puck was finding his stick all over the ice (he had ten shot attempts, four on goal), and he had two takeaways. Look for better things from him in Game 5.

-- Two games the Caps score power play goals…two wins. They are now 4-1 in games in which they get a power play goal during these playoffs.

-- It doesn’t happen often, so we’ll gloat about pretty much nailing the prognosto for this one.

In the end, we’re right back where we were in Round 1, alternating losses and wins through the first four games. The Caps went on to win Game 5 in Boston in the first round and will look to repeat history in New York on Monday. Given the way the playoffs have gone for the Caps so far, with the games having the same look and feel to them, one should not be surprised if the Caps do just that.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Game 4/Rangers at Capitals, May 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals host the New York Rangers on Saturday afternoon in Game 4 of their second-round matchup. The teams and their fans have had an extra day to digest all the extra hockey on Wednesday night, and everyone is probably anxious to get right back to skating, checking, shooting, shouting, yelling, and the like.

Game 4 poses an interesting situation for the Caps, as much for the result of Game 3 as anything else. History is a guide in such things, because while these Caps are unlike those who might have played, oh, 30 years ago, there are trends over time that seem to transcend the changes in rosters.

And that brings us to Game 3. The Caps lost a 2-1 decision in excruciating fashion, a three-overtime affair in which they certainly had their chances. But perhaps it is all for the best in the end. The Caps have taken 2-1 leads in games into Game 4 in four of the last seven playoff series in which they played. They lost three of those series (Tampa Bay in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2009, and Montreal in 2010). The exception was last year’s opening round series against the Rangers. Winning that Game 3 – or more to the point, losing it – seems not to have mattered much, at least to the Caps in recent years.

As Game 4 approaches, though, some things are becoming clear. One is that the Caps have started well, if not well off. In three first periods so far the Caps have out-shot the Rangers, 31-24. But they have managed goals in the first period in only one game, two goals scored in the first period of Game 2. Not coincidentally, that is the game they won in this series so far.

Conversely, the Rangers have been more productive late in games, outshooting the Caps narrowly (21-20 in the third period of games so far), but outscoring them 3-1.

The Caps have taken a one-goal lead only twice in this series. The scored the first goal (and the second) in Game 2, and gave the lead back. They would take back that lead in Game 2 and hold it for the final 7:27 of the contest.

On the other hand, the Rangers have taken one-goal leads three times (not counting the triple-overtime winner in Game 3) and surrendered them twice. In Game 1 the Rangers scored first but surrendered that lead to the Caps. They would regain that lead 13 minutes in to the third period and tack on another goal in a 3-1 win, the only time so far this spring the Caps have not finished a game with a one-goal margin, good or bad. In Game 3 they scored first, then let it slip away less than five minutes later. No one-goal lead in this series is safe, but…

The team that gets that first one goal lead – the one that scores first – wins. It has held true in each of the three games so far. What this suggests is that the games are so closely fought, so physically and mentally taxing, that a one goal deficit has the appearance of a mine shaft the team that is behind is trying from which to escape. They haven’t been able to use that foothold of a tie regained to add to the goal total before the other team takes a lead again (or scores that overtime winner).

Neither team has yet managed to impose its will on the other for sustained lengths of time in this series. Perhaps it is a product of these teams looking like mirror images of one another in style. The Caps come later to this, having had to learn to play this way over the last few months under Dale Hunter. For the Rangers it is the style for which they became known since John Tortorella became head coach.

As the series hits the mid-way point, the matter might now boil down to whether the Caps, who have subordinated “skill” (and the risk it sometimes bears in chance-taking), can get enough production out of their superior skill players in the ice time available to them. That they have not so far is the difference in this series – the “Core Four” (Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green) is a combined 1-2-3, minus-3 through three games. Only Alexander Semin has an even-strength point, assisting on John Carlson’s goal in Game 3.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Henrik Lundqvist

Henrik Lundqvist is 5-3, 2.11, .933, with one shutout in Games 4 of the post season in his career. But the wild card for him in this game will be the fact that he has logged the second highest minute total among goalies (the Caps’ Braden Holtby is first), and while there is the matter of the likes of defensemen Ryan McDonagh playing more than 53 minutes in Game 3 and Marc Staal playing almost 50 minutes, Lundqvist played more than one-sixth of his entire minute total in these playoffs in Game 3 (114:37 of 656:18). Lundqvist has had stinkers in the two playoff series in which he has faced the Caps – allowing four goals twice in the 2009 playoff series (both after allowing one or fewer goals in the previous game) and a five-spot after his second 4-0 loss, and allowing four goals to the Caps in Game 4 of last year’s playoffs after holding the Caps to a pair in the previous game.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom has not been a factor in any game so far in this series, save for his faceoff win in Game 2 that led directly to Alex Ovechkin’s game-winning power play goal. In his last 21 playoff games dating back to the opening round of the 2010 series against Montreal, Backstrom is 1-6-7, even. It is no coincidence that the Caps are 8-13 in those games. If the Caps are going to right things in this series, Backstrom is going to have to be heard from.

Keys:

1. Special teams. The Caps are 1-for-10 on the power play. They have 16 shots on goal in 15:45 of power play ice time. But those shots have an odd feel to them. Alex Ovechkin has five of those shots, all of them in Game 2 (in which he has his power play goal). It is a power play that looks good for moments, awful at other times. This is where the Caps deeper skill set needs to assert itself.

2. Calm. That might be the most frequently used word in describing the Caps so far in the playoffs. The occasional running around aimlessly in the offensive zone and cluelessly in the defensive zone has been absent. It has been what allows them to play effectively in close games.

3. Score first. Of course, but in this game it might mean just that much more. The grinding nature of this series has made even one-goal leads look large, especially the first one. Both teams have shown an ability to come back from it, but not to overtake it. Get that lead early, and maybe the Rangers will then have to deal just the slightest bit with all that skating their top defensemen did the other night.

In the end, the Caps have done what they had to do to play “playoff hockey.” No one could say of this team that they aren’t playing the “right way” (right R.J.?). But they do need to get just that little bit more from the Core Four – a skill set the Rangers cannot match. At the start of the season, George McPhee noted how this is their team. Well, now it the time to take ownership.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

Some things change...

The Los Angeles Kings are doing quite well this post season -- 7-1 in eight games so far, including a 3-0 lead on the St. Louis Blues in their second round matchup.  The Kings have allowed more than two goals in a game only once in their eight contests so far.  It has folks talking about Los Angeles appearing in the Stanley Cup finals for the first time since 1993.  In 19 years, a lot of things change.  For example, this is what passed for a cell phone in 1993:

Of course, some things haven't changed from 1993 until now...

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

With a day off, I was just thinking…

-- This series might come down to “Sweden.” So far, their Swedes (Anton Stralman and Carl Hageline) are a combined 0-0-0, minus-1. Meanwhile, the Caps’ Swedes (Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson) are a combined 0-1-1, minus-2. So, what’s the tie breaker? Right now…

… 2-1, 1.29, .944.

-- Speaking of Johansson… no points in his last five games and is a minus-3 besides. Let’s just not forget too quickly that he is only 21 years old. But it would still be nice if he grew up a little faster in this series.

-- It will be interesting to see how Backstrom performs in Game 4, given his 40-game hiatus in the regular season. He logged more than 34 minutes on Wednesday. After the other game in which he logged 30-plus minutes in these playoffs (Game 2 against Boston: 30:03 and the game-winning goal), he had an assist in 21 minutes and change. That Game 3 was also the game in which he earned a match penalty at the end of the game and a one-game suspension. Tired Nick is cranky Nick?

-- Brooks Laich has gone seven full games, 486:55, and 13 shots on goal without putting a puck in the back of the net. It would be nice to see him get off the schneid.

-- Your goal scorers so far in this series: Jason Chimera (2), Alex Ovechkin, Mike Knuble, John Carlson. That’s it. In three games. In more than 234 minutes of hockey. The Caps have hit more posts than twine.

-- If someone told you in, say, late January that the Caps would have the fifth best goalie in goals-against average and save percentage in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, and that he’d be the guy that was currently nursing a 3-3-0, 2.97, .894 mark for January in the AHL, would you have slowly backed away and called for medical assistance for that person?

-- Did you know that the top three players in hits for these playoffs are playing in this series? Ryan Callahan (50), Matt Hendricks (49), and Alex Ovechkin (45).

-- Meanwhile, the Rangers have the top two shot blockers: Dan Girardi (42) and Ryan McDonagh (33), but the Caps have three defensemen ranked 4-6: John Carlson (27), Karl Alzner (26), and Roman Hamrlik (26). Even Mike Green is in the top ten (20).

-- Avert your eyes, Caps fans… four Caps rank in the “top” six in giveaways: Roman Hamrlik (2nd), Mike Green (3rd), Alexander Semin (tied for 4th),and John Carlson (tied for 6th).

-- How much can a multi-overtime affect ice time rankings? Ten of the top 15 players in the playoffs in total ice time are playing in this series, six for the Rangers, four for the Caps. Seven of the ten are defensemen. Of course by this time, with teams having been eliminated, look at ice time per game. Only Ranger defensemen Ryan McDonagh (3rd) and Dan Girardi (5th) from this series are in the top dozen in average ice time. Karl Alzner has the most for the Caps (25:50/game; 14th).

-- Speaking of ice time, for all the pixels spent on how much Alex Ovechkin is getting, he ranks 27th among forwards in average ice time (20:45/game). Nine seconds more than Sidney Crosby had in his series against the Flyers (ok, Crosby didn’t play a three-overtime game).

-- And finally, there is this. Perhaps Caps fans should be thankful that the Caps did not win Game 3. When taking a 2-1 lead in games, the Caps are 1-3 in their last four such series (beat the Rangers last year, lost to Montreal (2010), Pittsburgh (2009), and Tampa Bay (2003)). On the other hand, the Caps have won the last two series in which they fell behind in games, 2-1. They beat Boston in the first round this season, and they beat the Rangers in the first round in 2009.